Atal S.A. (1AT.WA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We are here to present the results of Atal Group after 3 quarters of 2022. The conference will be participated as usually by the CEO, Zbigniew Juroszek. My name's Andrzej Biedronka-Tetla, I'm the Financial Director. We will briefly present our achievements in our operating activities and financial activities. And after this brief presentation, we will invite you to ask questions. So let's move on to the presentation. Traditionally, we start from operations. You know this map. It represents all our branches in seven cities in Poland and agglomerations. We would like to present our achievements. We now have 36 undertaking in progress. In the purchase land, we are planning 42 new undertakings, 13,000 flats. Those in progress is almost 7,500 flats. As you can see other cities, these numbers are more or less evenly distributed. We mainly build now in the Silesian metropolitan area in Tri-city, but we will also have other implementations in other cities like in Kraków, you can see a bigger offer is to come. As for sales of flats, we communicated on an ongoing basis, month-by-month. Based on the situation that breakdown on the mortgage loan market, the sales dropped in Q3, we have contracted under preliminary and development agreement. There's 376 contracts. And we're not presenting any other contracts, only those that are already signed. So here, it's a drop when we compare it to 2021 by 47% as compared to 2021, the 3 quarters. It was a record high result in 2021. But the sales also observe very large drops. When we look at -- generally, at the market, Atal is on the second ranking in terms of number of flats sold. Flat offers, as we communicated after June, it increased significantly. And at the end of September, it -- it was 4,852 flats. This increase is due to what we mentioned before that this preparation of development undertakings. We accelerated their implantation due to the changing regulations from 1st July, we're talking about the development act. And here in this offer, we have flats that are being constructed. We build 100% out of it, 30, 40 is currently being sold. We will probably refer back to it during the Q&A session, but these are flats to be sold. And now handovers in the first 3 quarters 2022. You know these numbers, 2,617 flats, total. 836 in Q3, mainly in Wroclaw, some in Dansk but also in Katowice -- and Kraków. The number of handed over flat in 3 quarters, when we compare them to the 3 quarters of 2021, we see an increase by 9%, that's 2,390 last year and 2,617 this year, which translates into the results. But if we look at square meters also, not only the number of flats, here, again, we see an increase up to 152,000 square meters of usable area flats. New land, here, another record, PLN 273 million, this is the money that has been paid. PLN 293 million that has been paid on new land where we can build 336,000 total usable area, flats. The average cost of purchase in the first 3 quarters was PLN 873, the purchase price for every meter. So this, here, this improved in this area of the market, but we will probably discuss it further in the Q&A session. The land bank at the end of September allows us to implement over 700,000 square meters of flats. The dividend has been paid at the beginning of July based on a resolution of the General Meeting of Shareholders from June. And now, handovers -- potential for handovers. What we're presenting here, we're planning it for 2022. And the gray fields here, gray boxes, are those that are complete, where we have -- that have been commissioned by the end of Q3. Those less gray, [ Bart and Novanta Gena ], they are commissioned that have the permit for use in Q4, and we are starting to hand them over to customers. And the last one is already completed, and we're waiting for the permit for use for the commissioning. So as we can see, all the projects that were to be completed this year are already implemented and completed. So there's a high chance that all these flats will be handed over soon. And the contracts for the projects that have been completed was 94%. So a very high factor just for a comparison last year. At the same time, this contract rate was 87%. So here, the situation is much better. Number of flats that were not handed over is 658 but most of them are sold as you can see. And potential handovers for 2023. We're planning to build 2,780 flats and hand it over to customers, 67% of them are already sold. It's exactly the same number as last year at the same time of the year. It was also 67% of contracts signed. And here, another slide for 2024. For now, we're planning to hand over projects that are being implemented 2,215 flats with the level of contracts of sale 11%, but we still have 2 more years for some of these projects. So there's plenty of time. Now the total -- the potential of handovers after 2024 is 47 projects for more than -- almost 50,000 flats. Some of them are being constructed already. The flagship project at [Ostrodzka], that's one of them. And now consolidated financial results, the second part of our presentation. You probably know, you are probably familiar with them already after 3 quarters at a group as reported revenues at the level of PLN 1.253 billion, so it's an increase by 22% as compared to the analogous period in the previous year. The gross result from sales is to PLN 324 million. That's 24% more than last year. And net result, PLN 252 million. So it's 33% more than last year. So it's PLN 6.52 per share. These increases that I mentioned a minute ago, you can see them in these diagrams. 22% of revenues, more. Net result, 33% more. Gross margin compared to the previous year is 0.4 percentage point. It's 25.8. And net margin has increased as compared to the analogous period in the previous year by 1.7 percentage points to 20.1%. And profitability in particular quarters, as we announced after the results -- after the first 2 quarters, this margin has increased as compared to the second quarter. Gross margin on sales increased to 25.7%, and net margin increased to 17.8%. Now consolidated financial results, balance sheet. Here, the situation is quite stable. The small fluctuations are due to short-term liabilities, increased liabilities towards suppliers and some advances and shifting bonds between short and long-term bonds. So -- and what I wanted to mention is the equity, which has increased slightly, but as a result of dividend payment, it did not drop, but it's actually a little bit more than it was. Net debt, according to the condition of bond emissions it's minus 0.1, as low as we've never had before. Now -- so the drop of liabilities, financial liabilities, cash and equivalents, PLN 544 million, that's reported by Atal Group that's cash at the end of Q3. So it's a significant increase as compared to the previous year. And when we compare it to even previous years, then it's much, much higher. Inventory, quite similar, but let's have a look at them. Here in, Atal Group, we have mainly like PLN 100 million increased. It's work in progress, mainly due to the already initiated projects, but some will be transferred to the finished products group and will be handed over in the coming quarter. And one of the last slides, structure of debt maturity at the end of September. This year, the company has no financial liabilities to be paid. It's a deal this year. For 2023, we've got two series of bonds -- of corporate bonds of the general value of PLN 240 million that are to be redeemed in spring and in autumn, and bonds from the main shareholder -- acquired by the shareholder, PLN 133 million and in 2024, PLN 44 million of bank loans. Sources of financing of our operations, that's mainly equity, PLN 1.196 billion. The second one is prepayments from the customers, PLN 860 million. And then in corporate bonds and loans from the shareholder. Now to sum up, the 3 quarters of 2022, we started 12 projects for 2,200 flats almost. We launched the sale of 16 investments, and we finalized the construction of 15 investments. What we would like to emphasize is the high level of cash and available limits and -- credit limits, it's PLN 663 million at the end of September 2022. And this is more or less it as for the results of Atal for the first 3 quarters. Now please use the Q&A button to ask questions, and we will be back in a minute to answer your questions. So feel free to type in the questions you might have.

We are back after the break. First question, what percentage of flats in the offer are finished flats?

658 flats, 94% of them are sold. 614, in other words, are sold by the end of December. Another question. How does the Management Board perceives the volumes of sales in Q4 '22 and Q1 '23? Can we see a rebound after the summer period, July September?

It's stable, 125 -- 130 flats are being sold. There are no major changes. It seems that in Q4, these sales will be quite similar as in Q3. So if we add this projected level, the total level should be 2,100 flats. As for Q1 next year, we rather need to think about the whole situation in the next year. If we assume that in Q4, it's being -- it becomes quite stable, then there are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the first 2 quarters of next year will be similar as in Q3 and Q4 in 2022 but we're also assuming improvements -- significant improvement in Q3, Q4 next year. That's the first scenario. Obviously, we can assume another scenario, namely that there might be some events that we don't have impact on when the inflation will -- instead of stopping will be growing and interest rates will keep growing, and there'll be some other external events worsening, then perhaps this situation might get worse. But we don't know this scale, this hypothetical deterioration of the situation. So it's difficult to assume something. We're assuming a realistic model based on what we have today. So the first 2 quarters next year will be probably similar to Q3, Q4 now with a rebound tendency in Q3, Q4. It is more difficult to build a model for a worse scenario. So I cannot project too much.

Another question. How does the company perceive the servicing of the bond that becoming mature in 2023? Will it be redeemed, or will it be rolled? And the -- for external investors, the bonds?

Like I said, we'll be redeeming some of the bonds, PLN 120 million in spring and autumn. This year, we did not do any movement here because of the -- unfavorable market situation and the price we have to pay for these bonds, much more than we expected. So we did not issue any bonds this year, but we will be observing what is going on in 2023. If these prices do not return to the prices that are of interest for us, that is the previous prices that we used to have them, we have the assurance of the -- from the main shareholder on support in the form of debt. And this is related to the other part of the question, what about the bonds from the shareholder -- main shareholder, we can roll them for another period. Another question. I think the CEO has already answered it, it's the target for 2023. I think it's been answered. Another about gross profitability and projection for 2023 at the level of 25%, is it still valid? And do we have similar expectations for 2023?

As we said before, this is our model of operation that we would like to maintain regardless of the situation on the market, economic situation. So even if we have lower sales, we would like to maintain this profitability growth at the level of 25% and 19%, 20% net. So that's what we would like to maintain. We have high chances of maintaining it. Obviously, it's all affected by the cost. But apart from the negative information that appear, and you know this information, there are some other positive information in the item land. There's a huge drop on the price of land. Based -- what you cannot tell when looking at these results now because we purchased that land before. So that's the result on previously bought land. Now purchased land is much cheaper. The prices have dropped significantly, and it balances the price of materials because they have increased significantly on the other hand. We already mentioned it in the previous -- during the previous conferences that this will happen. They are very, very high, these prices. But in the last 3 months, they stopped. But unfortunately, at this high level, without any drop, these drops are very, very small, really. So fighting with the -- any fight or struggle with the suppliers of materials is a lost fight because it involves the cost of production. They cannot reduce the prices of those materials because energy is very expensive. All the components required for production are very, very expensive. So they don't want to produce generating losses, so they limit production. And so we buy these materials, apart from some small adjustments at fixed prices for now. So no changes here. The good situation or very good situation is on the contractor market. We had to fight for every contractor. And now it's a reverse situation. Every task we want to perform, we have several or over a dozen contractors willing to do that, and we get some adjustments here, but they're not as high because all the costs are growing, and those contractors cannot always bear these expectations of the competitive prices. So we have some adjustments. We have land adjustments. No adjustments on supplies. But to sum up, we managed to compensate this increase in materials by the other two factors. And in -- so we're maintaining the model of 25% for now.

Now this question has been commented on partly, but maybe a broader comment on the situation on the land market. Can we observe more availability plan? What are the prices? What's the issue -- how does the market situation affect the plan of Atal -- plans of Atal with regards to purchase of land in coming quarters?

Well, you could see we have record high purchase, more than PLN 300 million. We might have one more transaction completed this year. So this is a huge purchase of land. Why? Because there's a huge supply and the prices are acceptable by us. We did not take part in this price range last year when the prices were observed. They were completely out of the market conditions, not consistent with the market conditions. Today, we have a reverse situation. The price has dropped, but it's also a situation where again, we have the same land coming up on the market at much lower prices. But on the other hand, we have public tender, and there are new buyers. So these are bought at the starting price. Why? Because well, you probably analyze the biggest companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, but there's a huge market of middle-sized developers, and they have stopped production virtually, hence, so the competition went buying lands. Now in 2023, can we also expect a conservative policy and withdrawal of dividend payment? When we talked about sales, I presented two scenarios, normalization scenario, which is difficult because when you look at the number of constructed flats, we sell 40% more or less now. And this will resolve. If this situation persists for 2 years, for example, obviously, we can finish all those investments. Of course, we do have some financial provisions to finance it, assuming that we only sell 40% of what we're supplying, but this will result in a situation that we have huge inventory of unsold flats in 2 years. And in this scenario, if it accumulates, if there are no premises for any improvement, perhaps this dividend policy will be suspended for a year. But this is just a hypothesis, right? For now, we have a stable dividend policy that has not changed for many years. We have not made any decisions or recommendations but this situation on the market is so unpredictable that we cannot guarantee that nothing will happen next year. It will all depend on which model actually materializes. The first one that seems to be the most probable or a model of worsening situation on demand. But even in this model of significant worsening, we can finish these investments, we can implement them, but the matter of dividend will be a questionable matter.

One more -- another question. Now the supply of [ cash tenants ], the demand for -- the supply of -- can it affect the sales? And can we expect that it's being exhausted?

Well, now it has maintained -- for the last few quarters, it has maintained our sales. It can actually remain on this level. Some will implement their task and purchase, but there might be some other factors coming in, that's one scenario. But the other one is that the cash can actually -- this level can exhaust a little bit.

Now another question, [ last one ]. Is the price policy being modified now in 2023? Can we have a drop in the prices of sales, assuming the level of the interest rates -- or their increase?

We have different -- there are different sales techniques. We've always been moderate with regards to prices and the location of our flats. So the prices don't change too much. When they were growing, it wasn't too much. It wasn't too fast, but we don't give too big discounts also. For particular locations, there are some promos and discounts. Like all the other companies, we also use them, but do not expect any significant changes in the market because the costs of materials is like 60% of production cost. If they don't change and they cannot change, there's no space for any major price adjustments.

How do you approach a matter of growing the offer? Some developers say that for 2, 3 quarters, they will not implement any -- or introduce any new items in the offer.

We're working according to plan. There might be a situation that instead of two, we might introduce one of -- and another one, a few months later. Such shifts are possible, but we don't have a policy that today, we're stopping everything. We're not implementing anything new, and we returned to the table into 3, 6 months. Now we have this plan of implementation, some slight adjustments or shift, but we still think that we can build it, finance it and after some time, sell.

And what percentage of sales is carried out by external agents?

Now we're selling only by our professional salespeople internally. So in every city, we have our own offices that handle our sales.

This was the last question. One more? Is the future of them being modified somehow, for instance, more smaller flats that sell better?

That's an interesting question. In Poland, for many years, we had this situation that we had too many small flats coming to the market. After 2009, we had more smaller flats to -- because of the creditworthiness and better option of sales. When we had secondhand flats on the market, these were offers like I'll sell a 2-room flat, and I'll buy a 3-room flat, right? Now between -- but in 2021, beginning of 2022, there was a tendency that the average size of flats was growing. And in our projects, we were assuming a big -- average of -- size of flats to compensate for the trend that was there before. So the market did not want so many small flats. Unfortunately, when we compare it to the creditworthiness situation, again, we're providing -- well, we see small flats coming to the market. It's difficult to tell if we, developers, cannot escape from because this will be the only flats people will be able to afford, or is it temporary? And after some time, the bigger flats will be back to the market. But we are coming back to this trend that these proportions should be improving.

Okay. Thank you very much. This was the last question. Thank you for participation in our conference. Feel invited for the next conference next year and feel free to contact us with the Investor Relations department. Thank you. Goodbye. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]