AT&T Inc. (T) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 9, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
John Stephens
executiveGood morning, Brian. How are you?
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystI'm great. Thanks for joining us, John. Appreciate it.
John Stephens
executiveBrian, if you want, we can -- we'll go ahead and get started here. I know they're getting [ hooked up ].
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystOkay. Okay. All right, great. Well, on behalf of Bank of America, I just want to say thank you for joining us, everyone, and welcome again, as been said this morning, to the 2020 Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference. It's our pleasure to have the CFO of AT&T. They're here with us this morning. It's John Stephens. And my former colleague and friend, Amir Rozwadowski, who's joined the firm, and Investor Relations is here as well. So I don't want to waste any of our clients' time, and we value your time greatly, John. So thank you for joining us this morning.
John Stephens
executiveBrian, thanks for having me. Thanks for your interest in AT&T, and thanks for you personally stepping up to be in this forum. We appreciate that.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystOf course.
John Stephens
executiveFirst and foremost, let me get the safe harbor matters addressed. Today's conversation will include forward-looking statements. Those statements are subject to risks and actual results may differ materially. So we suggest that all the investors look at our SEC filings and the information that's available in the AT&T website. Once again, thanks to the investors for all their time today. And let me start by saying in this interesting and somewhat challenging time, please make sure everyone stays safe. Just with regard to a quick opening comment, Brian, let me just say this. COVID is -- and the impacts of the pandemic have made visibility difficult, and so the businesses are going through new challenges today. We feel comfortable about our ability to get through those successfully because of the strength of our balance sheet, the strength of our free cash flows and our ability to raise and operate within the debt markets, and really with regard to the ability to monetize assets. Our businesses benefit us in that way because they're very resilient, whether it's wireless, whether it's broadband, whether it's business wireline. All of them have been very resilient. So we're very comfortable with that. Next, I can tell you, it's an exciting time with 5G coming with additional fiber opportunities with direct-to-consumer and new software-based entertainment opportunities. We have some challenges. Video is a challenge. The entertainment business media is a challenge with regard to what's happened because of the COVID impacts. But all in all, feel good about our opportunities and certainly about the strength of our balance sheet and cash flows and the resiliency of our business. With that, Brian, I'm more than happy to try to answer any questions you have.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAbsolutely. And thank you, John, there's a lot to talk about. Why don't we start with COVID impacts? So just high level, company has been resilient, service has been resilient. But how has coronavirus impacted the business, whether it's down to the worker level, revenues, costs? Can you explain a little bit?
John Stephens
executiveSo yes. So first, from a total company perspective, we're really focused on serving our customers safely and carefully, whether that's being very careful about in-home installations, and quite frankly, to some extent, limiting those for on-premise service and being very careful for our business customers. But also, we're making sure our networks stand up and have the capabilities and quality that people kind of expect from us. And we're very proud. I'm very proud of the network team managed -- how they successfully pulled that off and about how our networks continue to win awards. But more importantly than winning the awards is really serving the customers, whether it's the broadband in the home, whether it's the wireless connectivity, whatever aspect, whether it's delivering entertainment services to them, so feel real good about that. From a kind of a business unit perspective, wireless has been hit by lower service revenues related to roaming and specifically International. With the downturn in international travel, hence the downturn in roaming revenues. The business has held up very well. Churn, customer counts have been very, very solid. Churn's been very good. As you saw, we had a slowdown in equipment sales, but that bounced back towards the end of the second quarter, and you saw that in our second quarter results. Business wireline has been very resilient. While there are some challenges with regard to our business' customer segments and their outlook going forward because of COVID, we had a really solid second quarter and first half of the year. Our expense efforts and transformation efforts that we've been going through really showed up as we've held on to 40% margins in that business and as customers demanded high-quality strategic services. Media has been difficult. The theaters have been closed down, production's on hiatus. NCAA tournament's canceled. NBA was delayed. So we'll see some impacts of that NBA delay as sports rights going -- sports costs into the third quarter and fourth quarter. So it's been challenged. But the team has done a good job of working through it and continuing to seek out the best way to operate. So kind of an overall perspective, cash has been good, but it is a challenging time, and visibility has been somewhat limited. We appear to be starting to come out of it, but it's too early to change any specific -- or give or provide any specific guidance at this time.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystOkay. Great. That's very helpful framework. Now when we think about your largest business, the wireless business, give us an update on what competition is like in the industry now? Has it changed? Has it modified? And how does AT&T compete, especially heading into the Q4 period where we're going to get new iPhones, we're going to get new devices. What's AT&T's competitive advantage? And what tools are you using to gain market share?
John Stephens
executiveYes, competition continues. And it continues at a -- what I would suggest is fractional, but it's a competitive market, it has been for some time. So that's one. Two, we continue to be competitive. We saw that in our churn numbers. We saw that in our net adds, even with our conservative accounting approach to the Keep America Connected program. And you saw that with regard to our good financial performance, if you will, with regard to EBITDA and margins and so forth. And the key to our situation really goes back to our network and the award-winning network we have, in fact having won another award for Best Network last night -- or was that yesterday? It was yesterday. And with regard to that -- I'll say is this, with regard to the first build-out that started about 3 years ago, we've now, since 2017, increased our LTE capacity by about 75%. We put in a national 5G network that will cover over 200 million POPs, and that's grown with 5G. And we put in a bunch of -- a collection of technological improvements, whether it's carrier aggregation or 4-way MIMO or, soon to be put in place, dynamic spectrum sharing. All of those things are giving us a high-quality network and a high-quality network that is based not only on new 5G customers but for existing customers in the LTE space. So those customers that go with -- have been with us for a long time are experiencing higher speeds, higher quality, better coverage. All of that gives us a great way to compete. We also have unique abilities to go to with FirstNet market and be the official provider, and we've added about 1.6 million connections from that point, and that continues to be a large opportunity for us. We're just getting known there. And then of course, we've got the ability to bundle, whether it be fiber or whether it be the with some quality products like HBO Max, and we have the owner's economics with it. So from that perspective, we feel very good about wireless. It is doing well and we continue to serve customers well. That's the long-term success rate: great network, great service, great customers.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAnd related to this topic of wireless, I guess, 2 related topics would be 5G and wireless spectrum. So with respect to 5G, are there applications that AT&T envisions or that are on the market or get you excited where you might be able to upsell and get consumers to actually pay for 5G? Or is 5G still just kind of the cost of doing business and a network upgrade, I guess? And additionally, how does this -- other than faster speeds, how might this change consumer experience? Walk us through a little bit. And then I want to get to your spectrum position.
John Stephens
executiveA couple of things. We do have a national 5G network, 200 million POPs to cover and continuing to grow indeed, deep. We'll continue to see improvements in speed on our networks as we roll out dynamic spectrum sharing and other improvements. Quite frankly, we'll also see better experience with customers start getting 5G devices. Right now, that wireless saturation or penetration is not at the high end yet, and we'll see if that goes over the next 6 months and a year. With regard to what we're seeing, sure, there's a lot of opportunities in 5G whether it's, if you will, health care campuses and some of the things we're seeing. For example, there's the Larry Ellison cancer institute at USC that has instituted a 5G application program, whether we see some of the automated factories we've done across the United States, whether it's in venues and so forth. But what you'll see develop is into augmented and virtual reality. I would suggest it to you this way, business is going to lead us in business applications, we're seeing that already on 5G campuses, on automated, on health care. What we'll also see is because it's the first time that a network is available before the devices have penetrated, where the 5G network is available ahead of time, once the devices get out, you see the applications come very quickly. Probably a lot more inventive and ingenious and innovative than a finance guy can think of. But I expect that -- and I do believe there will be an entertainment. There will be an augmented reality, virtual reality. They will believe -- they will be in vending-based applications as vendors come back. So I think there are real opportunities. Likewise, there's going to be more and more opportunities to put things on the edge, like computing out of the equipment, put it on the edge network and provide better quality service and opportunities, and that will develop over time. We're really well positioned, most importantly, with the network build that we've done to continue to provide great service to existing customers and the ability to attract new customers with 5G capabilities.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAnd now related to that, can you describe AT&T's spectrum position right now? And with upcoming auctions, what kind of spectrum do you need? What are the capital needs and requirements? And how does AT&T prepare for that?
John Stephens
executiveI got to be really careful with regard to the quiet period requirements and so forth. But let me just say this, we've got a very deep -- this is well known, a low and medium-band spectrum position. And more importantly, it's not just owning it, but putting it into service. And so as we've talked about, as I mentioned earlier, and since 2017, we've increased the LTE capacity by 75%. That's really based on us putting AWS-3, WCS, just the band -- 700 Band 14 spectrum into service. And so when you look at what we've got, we've got great capabilities and great asset listings in the spectrum space today, and giving us great capacity as we build out and densify the network in 5G. In addition, we've got a tremendous millimeter wave holdings. And those are, on the record, over -- close to 1,000 megahertz of spectrum based upon an average nationwide. So we are very well positioned. With regard to opportunities, we continue to look at opportunities as we have been for the last few years, and we continue to be prudent and active, as appropriate, in that space. Feel very good about our spectrum position. But remember, that spectrum position was built over decades, and you've got to be a constant, if you will, give constant attention to that base and make sure you tend to do it and grow it appropriately as you go.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystOkay. I wanted to turn now to WarnerMedia and then the Entertainment Group. Two big, important parts of the business as well. With WarnerMedia, there's a lot going on in the movie industry right now. You obviously saw Disney release Mulan through its Disney+. So the idea is, does AT&T and WarnerMedia plan to bypass the movie theaters and potentially release movies through HBO Max? I know I've been asked about Wonder Woman by clients and what AT&T's plans might be for some of the tentpole films. So how is WarnerMedia addressing that? And how quickly can studios [ ramp ] in really full production, be at full capacity? Can you give us a feel for where production stands right now?
John Stephens
executiveYes. So a couple of questions. One with regard to our relationship -- excuse me, with theaters and utilize that. I think Tenet speaks to that in the sense that we continue to partner with them. They continue to be an important part of our process and our release of Tenet this last few weeks, when we actually -- here in the United States last weekend. And what I think is a positive response to it and then challenging, all theaters aren't open yet, it goes to the fact that we signed a commitment to these theater owners who we'll continue to work with. With that being said, we understand the distribution model is going to evolve and it's going to change. We did something different with Scoob! Certainly, not like a tentpole film like Tenet, but we did a different distribution model with it some months back. So we're going to continue to look at everything, but in no way I want to imply that we're not going to continue to work with those theater owners. And for a tentpole movie like Tenet, which I saw in the theater, it is really impressive. And it's -- I couldn't imagine being able to see that and enjoy that the same way I do in my home. But it's a tremendous experience. So we'll continue to work with the theater's owners on that. With regard to production, production is up and running in many parts of our infrastructure, some of them outside the United States. And so -- or many of them outside the United States. So we'll see production ramp up. I can't give you a specific prediction about when we'll be at a 80% or 100% because there's still some uncertainty with regard to government stay-at-home orders or business shutdown orders, and we're always focused on making sure the cast and crew and our personnel are staying safe. So even as we work through the situations, we're always going to be prudent and make sure everybody stays safe. But I can tell you, we have very, very many worldwide productions already up and running, and we'll continue to have that as long as we can do them safely.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystNow related to Turner specifically and thinking about sports. So obviously been devastating news for sports fans that all the cancellations, the loss of seasons and leagues and games. But can you give us an update or just the financial impact of all these delayed seasons, shortened seasons and what's going on with the cost of sports rights, the burden that you must bear and how much relief, if any, you get on the sports side?
John Stephens
executiveSo yes, let me kind of do it in 2 pieces. We've had some events canceled like the NCAA tournament. When you have those canceled, you have an impact on your business, that is a loss of advertising revenues from those events not occurring and the ability to have to cancel the advertising and affecting advertising of those as well as you have an adjustment in sports costs and the fees that you pay and are responsible for on those events. That's one of it. That's when the event is canceled. And the second one is on the delay. Like the NBA, where we traditionally have had more expenses related to the first and second quarter with regard to the NBA seasons. That now normally wouldn't show up in these sports costs in the third quarter, but now many of the games have been played there, so we'll have higher sports cost. Likewise, in the first and second quarter, we would have had advertising revenues in prior years that we didn't have this year because we didn't have those sporting events. And now those advertising revenues will show up in -- and is released in part in the third quarter. I would suggest you -- that's how we run that. It will all depend on what viewership is. One thing I will point out is because of the concentration of games, we're seeing a lot more games played in odder times, earlier in the evening, during the day, later at night, some of those things across all sports in an effort to get them all in. And as such, that does have an impact on advertising revenues. So it does have an impact on viewership. It isn't as spread out and therefore is choosing the choice prime time viewing and prime time advertising times as we might otherwise have done. That's just something we're working through a little with the leagues on that. With regard to the rest of the Turner and the CNN, if you will, viewership has been pretty good. CNN, certainly news-based viewership is very good in an election cycle year and, quite frankly, in the year of the pandemic. So viewership is strong. We continue to see through the second quarter, good viewership in our main channels, our 4 big channels. And Turner quality channels continue to get in. And we have seen some challenges with just general advertising as airlines and hotels, restaurants may have pulled in their advertising [ dollars ].
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAnd just to stop on kind of the Turner, but parlay it to DTV, the Entertainment Group. What's the trajectory of video subs look like these days? Are we at a stabilization to improving point? Are things worsening? Just a broad-brush update. And how do you stabilize EBITDA at the Entertainment Group with that kind of top line subscriber pressure if it persists?
John Stephens
executiveYes. So I think the first thing is on the EBITDA. I mean, I'd say we clearly have to take into account the COVID aspects. And if we pull out the COVID aspects, it may be much more -- we'll be much closer to stable. And quite frankly, if you take into account the COVID accounting aspects, we're actually growing EBITDA on an overall basis in EBITDA. But let me go this way with it. On the Entertainment Group and specifically on video subs, our focus is on entertainment, our quality subs that we have today on a value-creative basis and attracting additional ones on a value-creative basis. That's going to be adding subs on AT&T TV, which is a much lower cost customer acquisition model. That is we continue to provide good quality service to our customers but not chasing every customer. So rational marketing efforts, rational retention efforts. And that's going to be our focus. That will continue. And then bundling it with wireless, bundling it with broadband. The success we've seen with AT&T TV and bundling it with our fiber product inside our footprint's been encouraging. So we'll continue to focus on that. From an overall Entertainment Group perspective, continue to penetrate our fiber opportunity and continue to grow our broadband revenue base is going to be really important to that. As well as continuing to transform our cost structure, which we've continued to do throughout and saw that in our wireless margins. We certainly saw that in our business wireline margins and it's certainly helping in the Entertainment Group. So all of that is, if you will, in the plan to get us to continually improve and strive for better entertainment and overall business margins and cash flows.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAnd just to go to a topic that was somewhat of a coronavirus beneficiary, and that's Business Solutions. How much of the benefit from Q2 was from -- work-from-home was kind of onetime in nature, where businesses, individuals were upping their telecom needs during a time of crisis. And what are the growth opportunities and/or challenges in this Business Solutions business, which probably doesn't get enough attention?
John Stephens
executiveYes. And I agree it doesn't get enough attention when it generated what, $6 billion, of EBITDA for the quarter. That's a stacked number, a very healthy number. And the Business Solutions team is doing really great work in a business that often doesn't get the attention it deserves, certainly for the cash it generates. With regard to whether it will continue or not, Brian, I don't mean to be difficult, but I'd ask you, how long is the COVID impact is going to last? What are the extent work-from-home? How long do people want to be virtual or are people are going to be required to be virtual? And so some of those things are some judgment issues with regard to visibility and what you expect. Certainly, the services we provide have been, I think, accepted by our customers very positively, have a positive impact on us. We continue to make sure the quality there as you're doing today, that we're having conferences in this way. I would expect that -- will the business stay at some higher level on a going-forward basis? We certainly expect that. I think all of us are going to do more virtual call, less having a bigger impact of our business. I can't tell you, and I'm not going to predict and we're not giving guidance for third quarter on how much that will be retained or grown over the year. But I'm really pleased with the performance of the team and the performance of the network team that's providing that service.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystJust kind of related to that, but just thinking out loud. But Zoom's obviously been popular. A lot of our clients focus on the software sector where RingCentral and their partnership with Avaya as well as AT&T, has been touted as a very smart, savvy move. Can you talk a little bit about AT&T's role in this video conferencing boom and this virtual conferencing boom? What's AT&T's role? And what are the ways in which you're participating in that boom?
John Stephens
executiveYes. I guess I'll give you a couple of different viewpoints from it. You may have seen pictures of cities across the United States and across the planet, but across the United States, on smog and congestion and so forth before COVID and then the clean air after 3 months of COVID. Well, I got to tell you, companies like ours and specifically ours played a role in that because of our broadband connections because of the fiber investments we made, because the connectivity we've provided, we may -- we enabled that. We allowed the business to continue to work. That's solely on our own, with -- in partnership with a lot of others in our industry. But quite frankly, it has made a huge difference. So with regard to that one, we're the enablers. We're the providers of connectivity. We're the ones who manage those networks and make sure that they work and carry those bits of bytes, whether they're video calls, whether they're voice calls, whether they're data bits and bytes. Whatever kind of connectivity, whether it's health records or whether it's manufacturing data inside a factory or the -- we provide that opportunity for secure, quality, high-speed connectivity anywhere people want it. We allow them to consume entertainment with it. That's our role. And whether it's HBO Max or whether it's a Zoom call, we're going to be involved in providing the delivery. That's our role, the quality networks we provide or what attracts our customers to using us. So I think we got a really long-term play in that, as we always have, and it will continue throughout. It's just a different piece of data, a different byte -- bits and bytes that we're carrying.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAbsolutely. Understood. So can you offer any comments on the headlines around Xandr? Does Xandr operate more closely with WarnerMedia or DTV even though Xandr is now under WarnerMedia? And just any broad comments you want or don't want to make on Xandr.
John Stephens
executiveYes. So real quickly, advertising continues to be an important part of our business, as you know. And we've seen the results so far with regard to Turner and challenges that it faced with the loss of the NCAA tournament and the NBA and sports and the impact, and hopefully, we'll see some of that return the second half of the year. But advertising on -- whether it's on the Turner, the WarnerMedia side, whether it's on the Entertainment Group, but quite frankly, advertising for ourselves, specifically for our mobility business or our broadband business, advertising is going to be an important part of our business. So that's number one, and that's not going to change. Being able to provide quality advertising that is data-infused and data-empowered for the people that advertise on our networks, on our systems, whether it be DIRECTV or video or whether it be Turner, TNT and so forth, really important and we'll continue to work towards that. And that's going to be important, and using data to make our own advertising more efficient. So we've got a long-term commitment to it. We'll stay with it. We'll deal with it. Bringing Xandr and WarnerMedia or Turner's advertising unit just makes sense in this environment where you're focused on acting efficiently and acting as one. It's really important. That's what's critical about that. With regard to some of the other stories on -- that are speculative on transaction basis, I've got no comment, and we'll stick with that.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystOkay. Great. And just on WarnerMedia, can you give us an update? There have been a number of management changes at different divisions of WarnerMedia. Do you feel like the setup is complete? Or what -- can you give us an update on just some of the management changes at Warner?
John Stephens
executiveYes, sure. We've had some -- we've got a lot of really great people and we've had a history of having a great people work for us and work with us and do great things. It was always about quality people. But what we've done is streamlining operations to be more focused on content development and the D2C process. That's what the goal was about. And so we've had to make changes. We -- they're tough to do, and we're doing it with great appreciation for all the people we've got. Secondly, we're going through a process where we're streamlining what I'll call the G&A support, whether that be in finance support, media support, the IT support, real estate support, whatever aspects of it, where we are going through a process to streamline those operations to make it more efficient to leverage our existing resources of the entire AT&T as well as within the -- all of WarnerMedia. This will allow us more flexibility. This will add better results for our shareholders in our business. And it's a normal part of the process as you lay out this plan to become a D2C provider, a storyteller or provider of entertainment wherever our customers want to consume or enjoy it. And that's where we're going. And so difficult, challenging because there's good people involved, but normal in this environment where you're trying to be efficient and effective and solely directed towards your goals.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAbsolutely. Wanted to now cover an important topic with AT&T, as always, but it's really your capital structure and use of capital and free cash flow and deployment. So can you first probably talk about buybacks and how you strategically think about buybacks. And if you're rethinking, any thoughts around that? And then company's view on deleveraging, to what level you could ultimately get to or your goal? And what can you share about dividend policy, how you feel about it now and moving forward?
John Stephens
executiveYes. So let me take the easiest one first. From a -- just a factual perspective in the sense of over 2 years from June '18 to June '20, we paid off about $30 billion worth of debt or paid down $30 billion of debt. So we've been committed to managing our debt levels and bringing the quantum of debt down, and we've done that. The facts are the facts. We've done it through great cash flow generation as well as asset monetization. With regard to debt, I expect to continue to pay down debt. We will continue to generate strong free cash flows. I certainly expect that. As well as there are a number of asset monetization transactions in process, whether it be Puerto Rico, CME, some real estate, those kinds of transactions. But even with those transactions getting closed this year, we'll have a number of other efforts going on. We have a $500 billion-plus balance sheet of total assets. So think about the ability to harvest assets out of that is -- the opportunities are significant. And whether that shows up through free cash flow or whether it shows financing transactions and others, we'll continue to focus on streamlining the business, making sure we monetize noncore, nonstrategic assets and really operating on a cash-focused basis. That will allows us to continue to pay down debt. That will allow us to continue to stay committed to and pay a great dividend to our shareholders. I think we've given guidance in the past that we expect a dividend payout ratio of 60%, and our expectation is the low 60s. So we aren't changing that now. I feel very good about that. Second quarter certainly add to our optimism on that. But essentially, continue to be a very strong cash flow company that with asset monetization, some prudent management, allow you to pay down debt and allow you to continue to pay a solid dividend now and into the future. With regard to share buybacks, quite frankly, we continue to focus on it. We understand the cash cost of capital and evaluate things from a cash cost of capital and the differences between our borrowing costs and the dividend policy. But we're also taking, to an extent, the quantum of debt that we have and the ability to retain flexibility. We've shown that and we're going to continue to focus on that. So no announcements with regard to anything with regard to buybacks. But specifically, certainly, we understand the logic of the question. Lastly, I will tell you, continued flexibility kind of -- we've got a number of financing transactions this year that have spread our maturities out in the very manageable towers and taking advantage of historically low rates. But in the middle of all those right now, the bond exchange. So if a transaction's friendly to our bondholders and has respect for them, but gives the company significant flexibility going forward and allows us to lock in very good interest rates on a reasonable basis for our bondholders. So it's those kinds of things. The markets have been very friendly to us. We're borrowing money today in rates that are the lowest I've seen in my career, regardless of our debt rating agency scores. So it's an unusual time and we're taking advantage of it, strengthen the balance sheet for the long term.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystAll right, great. Well, John, with that, looks like we're bumping up against time here. So on behalf of Bank of America, I wanted to thank you for your time. I don't know if there's any closing words you wanted for the audience, but really appreciate your time.
John Stephens
executiveGreat chat, Brian. Thank you for hosting me today. Thanks, everybody, for listening. Two comments. One, please stay safe. It's difficult times, so please stay safe. And as always, folks, don't text and drive. The life you save could be a friend of mine or a relative of yours, let's just be really careful out there. Thank you all and take care.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystThank you.
John Stephens
executiveThanks, Brian.
Brian Fenske;Bank of America;Analyst
analystThank you, John. Appreciate it.
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