Aurubis AG (NDA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aurubis AG conference call on the occasion of the publication of the full year results. [Operator Instructions] Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Elke Brinkmann. Please go ahead.

A warm welcome from my side as well. Here with me are our CEO, Roland Harings; our CFO, Rainer Verhoeven; and our COO, Heiko Arnold as well as my colleagues from Investor Relations. In a moment, our Executive Board will present the results of the past fiscal year, which has also been published on our website since 7:00 a.m. this morning and will give an overview of our updated strategy. The strategy will also be the focus of our Capital Market Day this coming Monday. Following the presentation, the Executive Board will, of course, be available to answer your questions. And with that, I'd like to turn the floor over to Roland Harings.

Thanks, Elke. Good afternoon. I'm very pleased to present the best results in company history this afternoon. Aurubis continues to navigate very well under the coronavirus pandemic and managed to further leverage promising market conditions, based on a stable operating performance. Strong ongoing demand for all of Aurubis products led to these very good figures. As already announced in the Ad hoc Release, the operating EBT of the group amounted to EUR 353 million, 60% more than the previous year. The corresponding ROCE of 15.6% shows the strong development compared to last fiscal year, where the ROCE was at 9.3%. The outstanding net cash flow of EUR 812 million is, of course, based on the very good results first, but also on the reduction of inventories. Because we want our shareholders to participate appropriately in the success of the company, we are recommending a dividend of EUR 1.60, which is in line with our dividend policy. Today, we will also give you an initial insight into the results of our strategy review process, which we will discuss in more detail at the Capital Markets Day next Monday. In this context, we also -- we are also providing clear financial guidance for our strategic projects, which in the short term means that we will invest a total of EUR 350 million in the Aurubis Richmond, in ASPA, Beerse and Industrial Heat projects, which will lead to an additional EBITDA of EUR 100 million from 2025/'26. And finally, for the current fiscal year, we are increasing our forecast for operating EBT to a corridor between EUR 320 million and EUR 380 million. But let's look at the numbers in a bit more detail. We were able to take advantage of very strong recycling markets in terms of production volumes, too. But of course, it also should be borne in mind that for the first time, we have included the Beerse and Berango site for the whole fiscal year. And as of December 1, Beerse and Berango have also become part of the Aurubis family in terms of their names. They are no longer called Metallo, but now Aurubis Beerse and Aurubis Berango in line with all our other plants. Talking about concentrate. The throughput was affected as we announced by the shutdown in Pirdop. Capital output was again on a very good level. And here, just to remind you, the year before, we were limited in production in Olen due to the crane damage that we had there. Based on very good demand for products, production was correspondingly high. Sulfuric acid production is always in line with the concentrate throughput. So this year, it was also below previous year, again, given the standstill in Pirdop. The output of our metals depends, and you're well aware of this, on the exact composition of our concentrates and recycled input in our production. In particular, the figures for lead, nickel tin and zinc include the first time the full consolidation of the Beerse and Berango sites, hence, you see a significant increase there. Let's talk about the market conditions. And first, copper price. These -- the numbers started from USD 6,600 per tonne in the beginning of the year, peaking to a level of USD 10,700 and closing around $8,700 at the end of the last fiscal year. Today, current copper price ranges about USD 9,700 per tonne. Talking about the concentrate markets. We had during -- throughout the year 2021, sufficient supply of concentrates in quality and quantity. And especially in the second half of the calendar year, the market was better supplied, driven by strong production in the mining industry and by some significant maintenance shutdown in the smelter industry. In a sum, Wood Mackenzie estimates that copper concentrate production is to increase by 2.5% in 2021. The significant copper price increase and ongoing high levels provide strong incentives for the mining industry to increase output over -- during the course of the fiscal year '21/'22 as well. And again here to quote Wood Mackenzie, their estimation is that copper concentrate volume will increase in the calendar year 2022 by about 8%. So significant additional volumes will come to the market in the coming year. We realized very low spot levels for copper concentrate in the second -- in the first half of 2021. But then with maintenance and all the aspects I mentioned, we saw that spot terms have really increased. And the latest benchmark numbers or spot box numbers that we have seen are around USD 63 per tonne, so above this year's benchmark of USD 59. Again, I want to repeat, Aurubis is well supplied with concentrates. And as you know, our strategy is to have long-term relationship and partnership with a lot of mining companies around the world, so well supplied and with an upward trend. Moving to the recycling markets. Over the course of the last fiscal year, we have seen a very good availability of scrap materials on the global sourcing markets, driven by higher collection rates and certainly by the incentive of high metal prices. This very good availability of scrap no.2 and all the other recycling materials in Europe and the U.S. led to exceptionally strong RCs in the reporting period. CRU estimates an average RC of EUR 522 per tonne during the last fiscal year for copper scrap no.2, taking logistics part -- side. This compares to EUR 359 in the year before and comparing this, it's an increase of 45% year-over-year. Obviously, these numbers -- these figures normalized throughout the end of the last fiscal year. And today, CRU estimates RC for this scrap no.2 at around EUR 300 per tonne. But important, we would like to -- I would like to remind you that this is only one reference point and Aurubis buys many, many different recycling materials for our smelter network. We will provide more insights about the recycling markets during our Capital Market Day on Monday. Looking forward, for recycling markets, our production sites are already well supplied with material beyond the first quarter of this running fiscal year. Next product line, sulfuric acids. We have seen in the market a very strong demand, meeting a tight supply situation during the course of the last fiscal year, which resulted in significant higher prices than in the previous year. The green chart impressively demonstrates the market development. ICIS most recent reports showed terms for the second half of 2021 at EUR 90 to EUR 90.70 per tonne, and Q4 even at EUR 115 to even EUR 155 per tonne. Global Markets even outpaced European pricing, and as one reference point, the spot terms for CFR Brazil range up to levels of USD 250 to USD 260 per tonne FOB. The current outlook for the actual fiscal year remains very positive. But however, we know we have seen that assets markets are still volatile and, therefore, we will not give any kind of outlook beyond the next 3 to 6 months on the sulfuric acid. Coming to ACP, the Aurubis copper premium. This calendar year '21, is set at USD 96 per tonne, reflecting the stable demand that we saw throughout '21 base coming from '20 -- from the last calendar year 2020. For the year -- calendar year '22, we have increased this premium to USD 123 per tonne based on the strong demand and also an expected tighter market situation in the coming calendar year. Underpinned is this by current spot premium levels in Asia, which indicate the strong demand for refined copper in China. So we see today levels in Shanghai in last October, we saw levels of USD 90 to USD 100 CIF Shanghai for cathodes. This, by the way, market premium, the copper premium has been well received by market participants. U.S. dollar. We have a long position in U.S. dollar, as you are aware of about $460 million in the current fiscal year. Within the scope of our hedging strategy, we have hedged 70% at a rate of EUR 1.147 for the current fiscal year, and we have already hedged 22% at a rate of EUR 1.163 for the fiscal year '22/'23. Coming to the next slide, some key numbers. A quick overview of the key operating year-to-date figures. Revenues increased significantly by 31%, driven by significantly higher copper prices and also other materials, metal prices went up, also supported by the sales -- high sales number for copper products. Gross profit increased by 16% due to the very good market conditions and a stable operating performance. Will come to details of our earning drivers in a minute. Despite higher costs, we achieved a 60% increase in our operating EBT overall compared to last year. And as mentioned in the introduction, last but not least, our ROCE reached 15.6%, which meets our target again, which is, as you know, 15%. Coming to one of the key cost drivers in our industry, energy cost. It plays a significant role. And in this chart, we show the costs at group level in the different energy categories in perspective. Overall, costs increased by 10% compared to previous year, and this is based on the rising energy costs on the one hand. On the other side, with the integration of Beerse and Berango, we have more industrial activity in our company. With a share of about 14%, energy is the third largest cost item and is almost at the same level as our depreciation. Now having shown the overall cost situation, let's stick more into the energy cost of the Aurubis Group. During the past fiscal year, we have seen significant price increases on the Future's market, driven by electricity supply shocks, higher prices for coal and CO2 also had a significant effect on the Aurubis cost side and the pricing on the Future's market. Comparing our fiscal year 2021 with the fiscal year '19/'20, the group-wide energy cost rose significantly by almost EUR 50 million or 25%. This cost increase was driven by several factors. Firstly, we had higher energy consumption due to the inclusion of the site of Beerse and Berango as well as the high performance and good performance of our plants across the group. Secondly, we have seen significant price increases for electricity and natural gas. To summarize, energy prices remain a very relevant topic, and I'm sure we will have some questions and some discussion about this later. The risk and opportunities from energy markets are effectively mitigated with hedging measures. With these measures, roughly 2/3 of the energy commodity cost increase for '21/'22 are fixed and we have only a partial risk from the rising energy costs. With this, I will hand over to Rainer to continue.

Thanks, Roland, and good afternoon also from my side. Hello, everybody. Let's now have a look at the financial KPIs of our company. They again reflect a very solid and robust picture, an equity ratio of about 50%. The negative debt coverage ratio and a net cash flow of more than EUR 800 million speak for themselves. The very good earnings situation also contributed to the significant reduction in debt, meaning that the purchase price of Metallo could be repaid within less than 1 year. This good financial position provides significant room for the future growth of Aurubis. Let us have a short look at the balance sheet. On the asset side, the strong free cash flow of nearly EUR 500 million, which led to a doubling of our cash position should be mentioned in particular. The increase in noncurrent assets is due to an overall higher CapEx than scheduled depreciation and disposals. The decrease in inventories resulted from reduction in feedstock due to lower availability of recycled materials -- temporarily lower availability and intermediates at the end of the last fiscal year. The increase in receivables is due to higher sales of copper products combined with the high metal prices. On the equity and liability side, we see a further increase in equity. Despite this increase, the ratio of 50% is slightly below -- 48%, is slightly below the prior year figure of 49% due to, in particular, a significant increase in our trade payables. Furthermore, it should be pointed out that provisions decreasing result -- decreased resulting from decreased pension liabilities. The discount rate was increased and the valuation of our planned assets has been increased. Looking at the financial liabilities, which also includes our ESG-linked loans, EUR 103 million of these loans will become due in February '22. In addition, we will do a prepayment of roughly -- no, not roughly, of EUR 153 million on these loans in December 2021. The increase in other liabilities is mainly due to trade payables from concentrate deliveries close to the balance sheet date with sharply increased metal prices at the end of the fiscal year. Let me now highlight some financials and production KPIs for the segment MRP. Operating EBT was at EUR 399 million and thus 60% above the previous year's figures. Good operating performance, significantly higher refining charges for copper scrap, high metal gains and a strong demand for the copper products led to this very strong result. With an ROCE of 18.9%, the target level of 15% was clearly exceeded during 2021. Looking at the production figures from segment MRP. The concentrate throughput was slightly below the previous year's figures, in relative terms, 5% lower. With the major shutdown in Pirdop lasting a bit longer than anticipated, the throughput figures came in below the prior year. Looking at the recycling throughput, we see a different picture altogether. With the incorporation of our sites, Beerse and Berango, the throughput of scrap and other recycling materials increased significantly. Other recycling materials even increased by 41%. Cathode production also increased significantly compared to the previous year's figures. The last year was negatively affected by the crane damage at our Olen site, Roland mentioned it already earlier. Year-over-year, Olen saw an increase of 37%. On the other hand, Lunen continues to have its refurbishment of the tankhouse, which will be presented in greater detail by Heiko during the Capital Market Day. Sulfuric acid production decreased in line with the reduced concentrate throughput, nonetheless, the very positive price effect on the asset market led to an overall positive effect on earnings compared to the previous year. Moving forward to the copper products, we saw an incredibly strong demand across all products compared to '19/'20. Rod production increased by 15% with high demand across all sectors. Shapes production is even up by 21% against previous year. In addition to our earnings drivers, the ongoing performance improvement program contributed with cost savings of approximately EUR 80 million in the last fiscal year. For segment MRP, capital expenditure during the fiscal year reached an amount of EUR 227 million, slightly above prior year level, primarily for the big standstill in Pirdop and our RDE project for the reduction of diffuse emissions in Hamburg. All in all, we can conclude that good operating performance in all smelters met favorable market conditions and led to an extraordinary result. Now turning to the FRP segment. Operating EBT came in at EUR 13 million for the segment FRP. This positive result is a clearly improvement versus the figures from '19/'20. The improvement in earnings resulted from a significant increase in product sales volumes for all customer segments, while maintaining costs at prior year levels. This positive result was achieved despite the force majeure declared by Aurubis Stolberg in July. Aurubis Stolberg restarted parts of the production lines already in early November 2021, so last month, after intensive cleaning and renovation work. Operating ROCE was at 6.6% at the end of 2021. This compared to an ROCE of 3% the year before. In segment FRP, capital expenditure was at EUR 15 million, slightly below prior year. The CapEx was primarily used for replacement investments. Now coming to the dividend proposal. As a result of this very successful business year, we'd like our shareholders to share in our success in an appropriate manner. Therefore, in line with our dividend policy, the Executive Board and the Supervisory Board are recommending a dividend of EUR 1.6 per share to the shareholders at the Annual General Meeting on February 17, 2022. This would lead to a dividend yield of around 2.5% based on the closing price of EUR 65.38 on September 30, 2021. This corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 26% of the group's operating results. Let's move on to the outlook for our earnings drivers in the current fiscal year, starting with the concentrate market. Both CRU and Wood Mac expect the global mine production to increase in calendar year 2022 based on the expansion of existing mine assets as well as new greenfield projects coming online. At the same time, the demand for smelters is expected to increase as well. In summary, Wood Mac expects that additional supply to keep up with the rising demand. This should result in a well-balanced global custom smelter concentrate market. Aurubis was able to fully supply production plants with clean concentrates throughout the entire year 2021. And based on our expected stock levels, and our long-term contract structure, our smelters are already fully supplied beyond the end of Q1 '21/'22. Moving on to the scrap RCs. Our core markets, Europe and the U.S. have seen a normalization towards the end of 2021 with RCs for scrap no.2, dropping from levels of around EUR 600 to EUR 300 per tonne. We foresee a normalization of the oversupply of material and anticipate a stable supply for scrap material in '21/'22. Looking to the more complex recycling materials. The supply situation was more stable throughout the entire year. And we anticipate here a continuation of a stable market environment and a stable RCs for these materials accordingly. Our production plants are already well supplied with material at good refining charges well into Q2 of '21/'22. Looking at the sulfuric acid, the high global spot prices reflect the ongoing strong demand with very limited availability on spot markets. ICIS foresees a stable development for the beginning of 2022 in Europe as product supply is already locked into contracts. The global picture is currently very similar, and we see a continuation of this extraordinary price levels at least for the next, let's say, 4 to 6 months. Aurubis copper premium, as briefly mentioned before, the copper premium for calendar year '22 has been set at USD 123 per tonne, which reflects the positive demand for refined copper with a tighter market expectation. Again, this premium is very well absorbed in the market. Coming to our products, rod, shapes and the flat rolled business, we see an ongoing strong demand for our copper products and expect positive contributions from the product business well beyond the end of this year. This market outlook is based on the foreseeable future and the current market situation due to COVID-19 outbreaks in Germany and around the globe. We have to put a disclaimer here. We do not see bigger lockdown situations on all countries. However, there will be a continuation in the disruption of our supply chain, and we will have to focus on that very strongly. Now very brief -- please find an overview of our maintenance shutdowns in the next 3 years. We will have our major shutdown in Hamburg here in May, June next year and with an impact of around EUR 25 million on our EBT. The anode furnace in Lunen is currently in shutdown. We expect to start mid of December again. Last not least, the annual shutdown of the smelter in Lunen will happen in May next year. Coming to the new segmentation. From October 1, '21, we will report a different segment structure. The new segments will be Multimetal Recycling on the one hand and Custom Smelting & Products on the other. The focus of our business lies on securing the most profitable input materials for our smelter network. Therefore, we have decided to separate our reporting segments based on the main input materials. The segments Multimetal Recycling comprises the 4 secondary smelters of our group, including Beerse and Berango. Our new project, the Multimetal Recycling facility in Augusta, Georgia will be part of the segment. With our long-standing and very successful plant in Lunen and Olen, the segment Multimetal Recycling offers a wide range of recycling services to our customers and already covers most of the metals that form the basis for all kinds of industrial applications. Another equally important pillar in our segmentation is the segment Custom Smelting & Products. Here, we report about our integrated flash smelters in Hamburg and Pirdop, which we operate with concentrates as main input material. These copper ores originate from mines all over the world. Based on the input material as well as the related production equipment, there is a clear differentiation from our recycling business. In this segment, we also report about our product business. The copper wire rod produced in our rod plants, the shapes business with copper cakes and billets as well as the flat rolled business are reported under this segment. Further products included in this segment are sulfuric acid, a highly attractive co-product of the concentrate smelting process, all iron silicate products and our precious metal production. We are convinced that with this new segmentation, we give you a more transparent and balanced view on our business. It reflects our updated strategy appropriately, and it will create a better understanding of our future growth path. Having a look at comparable numbers for the old and the new segmentation, we noticed a more balanced view when looking at the new segments. But we also see that the Custom Smelting & Products business has performed somewhat weaker than the Multimetal Recycling segment over the last year. The main reasons were the extraordinary -- extraordinarily high scrap and recycling markets, which benefited the MMR segment. Also, the higher energy prices predominantly impacted the CSP segment. Let me again explain the main drivers for each segment. The Multimetal Recycling segment comprises the production facilities for processing secondary raw materials, such as copper scrap and electronic waste. The focus here lies on the optimization of the input mix and achieving the highest gross margins as a combination of refining charges and free metal gains, together with a stable equipment availability. The Custom Smelting & Products segment includes the production facilities for processing primary raw materials or copper concentrates. At the same time, this segment carries the production and sale of our products like copper cathodes, wire rod, shapes, flat rolled products as well as sulfuric acid and iron silicate. Also, the production and sale of all other fine metals finds their home in this segment. Here, equipment availability is key. Apart from this, the input mix and an optimized sale of standardized products in large quantities play a key role. When comparing the capital employed, one can say that Multimetal Recycling carries less than half the capital of the Custom Smelting & Products segment. We will outline and highlight concrete figures for the capital employed of each segment during the Capital Market Day and offer a Q&A session on this topic. With the new segmentation from October 1, 2021, onwards, we are also providing a forecast range for the individual segments for the new fiscal year. On group level, as already mentioned, we expect an operating EBT between EUR 320 million and EUR 380 million, and an ROCE between 12% and 16%. Accordingly, the operating EBT in the Multimetal Recycling segment will be between EUR 140 million and EUR 200 million. For the Custom Smelting & Products segment, operating EBT will be between EUR 210 million and EUR 270 million. And now I'd like to hand back to Roland who will give you an insight into our strategy review process.

Okay. Thanks, Rainer. Coming now to strategy, and it's our mission and purpose to responsibly transform raw materials into metals for an innovative and sustainable world. We, at Aurubis, are firmly convinced of this, and we will be measured -- you can measure us, and we will be measured against this strategic direction and vision. Clearly, this foundation of this -- the foundation of this mission are our shared values. We will clearly outline the strategic road map and growth projects in greater detail during the Capital Market Day next Monday. So let me be relatively brief here. With a strong purpose and living values as guiding principles, I'm now looking forward to presenting our strategy on the page to you, together with my team. The overall title is Metals for Progress: Driving Sustainable Growth. The updated strategy of Aurubis is a precise and a very defined plan for sustainable growth based on 3 pillars. First, we secure and strengthen the core business, we pursue growth opportunities and we build and expand our industry leadership in sustainability. First, I want to make clear what is our core business. It includes the primary smelting, our multi-metal processing and specifically our precious metal recovery and of course, recycling. And of course, it also covers our cathodes, wire rod business and the co-products sulfuric acid and iron silicate. In the middle of this chart, you can see that there will be the key on strengthening our business. Here, we have defined specific projects. I would like to emphasize that transparency, communication and cooperation between the sites and also [indiscernible] in the -- are the key elements of becoming stronger. During the integration of Metallo and even more during the strategic process, we have jointly identified a lot of potentials to further improve our flows in the core business. And we will make sure that we only approve these projects that fit our strategy and that other strategic projects are well aligned and will make our company stronger. The next pillar is about growth. I think we can be very happy about one key finding in our strategic process. Our markets, our suppliers, our customers need us to grow. We can even go one step further. For sustainable future, the economy and society needs us to grow, increasing recycling quarters, the push for closing recycling loops, the target to reduce CO2 emissions and, therefore, transport and export distances and volume. All of that means that more capacities are needed to treat more and more complex recycling materials. And we can use these growth opportunities. We can invest in these capacities. We have the financial means and the experience, and this is our core business. Our third big strategic pillar is sustainability. This is not a lip service. We are serious about sustainability. Sustainability is at the core of our reason for existence, our purpose. We work sustainably and our products and services support sustainability. We have defined clear and ambitious targets to measure our sustainability progress. I'll come to that in a minute. And last but not least, our strategic project portfolio ensures that all projects support these targets, not only the specific sustainability projects to reduce emissions. This was an initial quick summary of the key elements, strategy on the page. Again, there is so much more to say and to discuss, and I would like to welcome you then on Monday on our Capital Market Day to go into this in more depth. And with this, to give you some ideas about our growth projects, I will hand over to Heiko.

Yes. Thanks, Roland. Let's have a look at first projects of our strategy. Two very important projects that are already contributing to our strategy are Aurubis Richmond in the U.S. and ASPA in Beerse, Belgium. For the presentation of the strategy review, it is very important for us, not only to show the starting point but also to be able to demonstrate concrete projects. Aurubis Richmond clearly falls under the pursue growth opportunities pillar earlier introduced by Roland. On November 10, we already provided information about our new recycling plant in the U.S. And on Monday, we will go into more detail about the recycling markets in the U.S. Aurubis Richmond is a highly profitable project that meets our sustainability criteria. On November 26, we announced that we have found a technical partner in the Dusseldorf-based SMS group, with whom we will work on the construction of this plant and possibly other projects. More on that at the Capital Markets Day next Monday. Another very profitable project under the pillar, secure and strengthen the core business is ASPA at state-of-the-art recycling facility at our Beerse site in Belgium, which we announced in July this year. With the hydrometallurgical facility, we will be taking the next step towards becoming the most efficient and sustainable integrated smelter network worldwide. As one of the most important results of the sustainability part of the strategy review process, we have defined 6 ambitious targets. Based on the sustainability strategy already in place since 2018, we adjusted and supplemented some of the targets already in place and added new ones. The time frame for achieving these targets is now set to 2030. In detail and concretely, this means for Scope 1 and 2 of carbon dioxide emissions, we want to achieve a 50% reduction. The second target relates to the Scope 3 CO2 emission. Here, we are aiming for a 24% reduction. The third target is a 15% reduction in emissions to air, as we will reduce our metal emissions to water by 25%. On the subject of supply chain integrity, we will aim for 100% compliant suppliers by 2030. And last but not least, we want to increase our recycling content measured as a share of recycling in our copper cathodes to 50% by 2030. We already have a recycling rate of 45% of our total cathode output of over 1 million tonnes, which is absolutely at the forefront of our industry. And again, you'll gain a deeper insight here next Monday as well. And now I would like to hand it back to our CEO, Roland, who will give you an overview of the financial implications of our strategy.

Okay. Thanks, Heiko. Now how does our strategy translate into the coming years? In the following, I will give you an outlook on our revised strategy and the financial implications. We can split the activities into 3 time intervals. The short term tackles the project already approved. The medium term covers our midterm planning horizon until '25/'26. And the long term lasts until the end of this decade, so until approximately 2030. For the short term, we have already announced concrete projects that have been approved by the governing bodies of our company and are being implemented in the coming years. Aurubis is going to invest an amount of some EUR 350 million over the coming years and expect an additional earnings contribution of about EUR 100 million EBITDA from fiscal year '25/'26 onwards. When looking to the medium term, we have additional projects in the pipeline with an additional CapEx amount of some EUR 250 million. In those projects, the focus lies again on strengthening the core business and sustainability. The CapEx for all projects has been included in our midterm planning until again, fiscal year '25/'26. All our projects run through an internal stage gate process. However, what we can already say, right now, is that with those medium-term projects, we expect to further increase our EBITDA by an estimated EUR 70 million by the end of this decade. With our modular recycling system, Aurubis will enter into new markets like the U.S. and provide a sustainable solution to treat recycling materials with attractive RCs. Further growth can be expected here. However, we have to take one step at a time and make sure that we deliver on our promises before we enter into further expansion projects. Another important growth area for Aurubis will be the battery recycling market. I'm sure we will have some questions around this in our Q&A. And by the way, it will be also addressed on the Capital Market Day next Monday. But just to give you one data point here. In this area alone, Aurubis is planning to invest some EUR 200 million in production capacity in the coming year, because the outlook and the prospects of this recycling market fits perfectly to our core competence and core business. Our strategic road map goes well beyond the medium term until the end of this decade. The volume and project pipeline significantly exceeded the approved short-term and medium-term investments. However, I want to underline, they are still at an early stage and not decided. Please bear in mind that we are talking about growth projects here, which will be invested in parallel to our ongoing investments into our core business. We will, therefore, be doubling our investment cash flows over the coming years, and will reach levels beyond EUR 400 million. With the net financial position of almost EUR 400 million and an equity ratio of close to 50%, we are convinced that Aurubis has the financial power to deliver on those projects that we plan to fund completely from our operating cash flow. We are confident that we will reach our growth targets. And again, as you heard several times by my colleague and me, we will go in much more detail next Monday. So with this, I would like to hand back to Elke and looking forward to your questions. Thank you.

Yes. Thank you, Roland. We will start now with the Q&A session, and I hand over to our moderator to guide us through this session.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Ioannis Masvoulas.

Congratulations on the update today. A couple of questions from me on energy. You show a EUR 50 million increase in fiscal year '21. But what's the underlying increase adjusting for the Metallo acquisition? And what's the incremental cost increase that is embedded into the midpoint of your EBT guidance for 2022? And the second question on energy. Is there any hedging in place for fiscal year '20 to '23? And are you looking to roll forward your hedges beyond 12 months, despite elevated energy and carbon prices? And I'll stop here.

So this is Rainer speaking. Thanks for the questions. So on the energy for Metallo, we have to look it up. So bear with us, we'll come back on that maybe during the conference. I'm sure my colleagues will find the figures. And for sure, we do have hedged quite significant amount for the electricity and also for the natural gas in the coming fiscal year. So therefore, yes, hedging is in place, as Roland has actually mentioned also during his presentation.

Okay. So just to clarify, I'm asking about hedging beyond the current fiscal year.

Okay. To repeat what I said, Ioannis -- Roland speaking here. So for this current fiscal year '21, '22, we have hedged about 2/3 of our energy consumption. So hence, there is a relative limited exposure. For the year thereafter and also some several years later, we have all the hedges in place and -- but they are at a lower level here. Honestly, I don't have here the numbers at my finger tip, but we have hedges for electricity and specifically for natural gas in place, although for the coming years.

Understood. That's clear. And one question, if I may. You show a target to increase your recycling content of copper assets to 50% by 2030. But on my numbers with the Richmond plant, you will already be at 47%. So is there anything we can infer from that? Or is it a target that is going to be evolving as you may announce more recycling projects in the years to come?

Yes, Ioannis, well spotted. We start from 2018 as a recycling content rate of 42%. If we look at the last fiscal year, we were at 45%. This is due to the integration and also increase of our recycling throughput to 1 million tons last fiscal year with the integration of Beerse and Berango. The amount from Aurubis Richmond, you're right, is in the magnitude of 2% to 3%. So it's -- I think it's correct to assume that something else will happen in this decade to increase the recycled content level to this target of 50%. But again, as I pointed out in our strategy, we are working on the projects to increase, and there is also the reason for the modular concept that we have developed from our recycling facility. So our ambition is to put more capability or more capacities into the regions, into the countries we are operating, but decisions have not been taken yet.

And coming back, Ioannis, to the question how much energy for Metallo. So we do have an increase from EUR 185 million to EUR 232 million in the last fiscal year overall in the group. Thereof, EUR 16 million come from the former Metallo Group. Energy costs in Metallo Beerse and Berango, EUR 16 million.

And the next question comes from Jatinder Goel.

A couple of questions. The first one, the full year FY '22 guidance range. Is this entirely reflecting market factors? Or is there much to consider any of the in-house uncertainty or conservativeness that you might have built into these forecasts?

Yes, Jatinder, Roland speaking here. I think you know our company, we are a conservative company. So the corridor that we have announced with EUR 320 million to EUR 380 million as operating EBT for this fiscal year takes conservatively today's market condition into account. So therefore, the risk and the opportunities are reflected in these numbers that we see for this fiscal year. However, we heard this also from -- probably from many companies, the pandemic is not over, and therefore, it remains with a bit of uncertainty how the overall economy, how chip crisis, supply chains, all the things which are out of our control, how they will impact the markets going forward. But from what we know, what we see we have in our books, we are confident that we will be within this corridor.

And just to stretch it a little bit further, how conservative do you think you are in this guidance versus what you established in December last year, which ended up being revised up within 6 weeks?

Yes. Okay. Fair enough. But last week -- last year, you have to remind, we were in the midst of a shutdown where we had to give the corridor for our fiscal year. Nobody had an idea of what's going to happen to the world because there was no vaccination. There was absolutely not clear how long a lockdown and shutdown will last. I think with this situation we are in today, there are some risks, but they are not that fundamental and unpredictable like the ones we had a year ago. Hence, this corridor is, I think, a much better reflection and much more reliable than what we announced in the past year. So I think we cannot compare these two.

In the guidance on multimetal -- new multimetal segment year-on-year, is that purely a reflection of refining charges coming down? Or is there much else going into it? Because all the precious metals are bundled into custom smelting side. So what else is driving other than RCs that year-on-year decline aside from energy cost, which might be going up a little?

Yes, I think as we very openly shared, the development in recycling markets and RCs, we had an extreme strong market situation with scrap #2 as a reference point in the year as we also disclosed. And this has come back to normal -- more normal leverage, and throughputs are on a very high level. Operational performance of our recycling plants in the last year -- last fiscal year have been very good. And we are continuing to run there. Hence, lower RCs in some segments. Other segments are very strong and stable, and some cost increases will have put some pressure on the results in the segment. On the other side, custom smelting and products, you see the upside. That's the advantage to have many different strong earning drivers. So if one is a bit under pressure, we see others to go up. And overall, we can show a very total good performance and outlook for the company.

And the next question comes from Bastian Synagowitz.

My first question is just a quick follow-up on energy cost, which maybe I'll frame in a slightly different way. Could you just let us know also how much you did factor of energy cost into your guidance framework in absolute numbers? So this is basically -- is this around EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million or so? And then also, if car prices would be stable, what would be the cost impact once your hedges are running out? This is my first question.

Okay. No, yes, sorry. We are mute here. Repeating what I just said, Mr. Synagowitz. So as I mentioned, we have 2/3 of our energy consumption for this fiscal year we have hedged. So therefore, this is one-to-one into our forecast and into our guidance for this current fiscal year. And for the exposure, we have taken the forward markets into account as we have -- as we do see them. So these prices of the current market, which are high, are part of our guidance for this fiscal year. Having said this, we know how volatile these markets are today and whatever happens with the natural gas will have a significant impact, not just on natural gas, but also on the electricity prices as we know how the mechanism with merits order and everything push electricity prices up to date. So -- but again, the guidance is here very solid and reflects the risks well that we see in the energy markets.

Okay. Understood. If you were to mark-to-market the current spot situation basically ignoring the forward curve for a moment, how would the energy bill look like? What would be the increase in total?

Okay. We are switching back and forth. So we are not disclosing this number in detail at this point in time. You have seen the historical numbers. We have EUR 232 million of total energy costs in the last fiscal year. And as these hedges I mentioned are a mix of long term, short term, there's different pricing. And we keep this as a certain confidentiality because we are in the markets, and we are negotiating also some additional deals. So therefore, again, I want to repeat, in the guidance, we have -- conservative as we are, we have included the prices, realistic pricing for the not hedged energy portion of our cost bill.

Maybe if you allow, Roland, to add a couple of words here, Bastian. One thing is also with the currently existing prices. So we talk about the budget on the one side or the, let's say, our forecast here. And we talk about the current forecast. And with this energy prices, we also don't see a necessity to, let's say, adjust here and there. So that just confirms what Roland just said, our guidance holds here. We don't have an issue on that part. And why is it so? Please, again, look to what is it Page #6 of our presentation today. Yes, energy is not completely unimportant. Nonetheless, it's only 14% of our overall costs. So an increase on, let's say, a piece of the cake of 14%, whatever it means, does not harm Aurubis too much.

No, this is very clear indeed. Maybe just to [ report ] this into your strategy then and you obviously have stepped up in terms of your ambition for sustainability here today, which is great to see. You've been talking about many projects, which are obviously on the recycling side. But obviously, on the other side, we basically have the energy cost and to some extent, at least, as it seems clearly, I mean, green electricity, green energy will be one of the key elements. Are there any projects you're working on as well to basically secure yourself here? Or from a strategic point of view, are you looking at things like PPAs, for example? Or how do you look at that part of what is needed to get your sustainability strategy done?

Yes. No, thanks for the question. Sure, we are moving and we have signed the Sustainable Target Initiative that we will reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 in this decade by 50%. And again, just to remind everybody, we are today the copper producer with the lowest CO2 footprint compared to the rest of the world. We are less -- emitting less than half of what the rest of the world has as a CO2 footprint. On top, we are in advanced discussion about industrial heat. We call it Project Phase #2. We started here in Hamburg about -- in 2018, so 3 years ago. And now we are in the next phase to invest in our sulfuric acid plant and provide significant additional heat to the city with the effect of reducing the emissions within Hamburg by another 100,000 tons of CO2. We have also announced -- and we have completed and announced the new projects in Bulgaria to increase our foot of voltaic production. That's why we called it Aurubis One, the project that we have just started or they have come on into production in late summer. And so we have many, many more projects in order to reduce and very important, talking about Scope 2, we are in intensive discussion with electricity providers about PPAs to source green electricity, renewable electricity for our smelter network going forward. And we will have a solution in the coming calendar year for the future. That's very -- I'm very confident that we have a competitive long-term solution in place by them.

Okay. Excellent. Then one more question on strategy, if I may. And obviously, you clearly at the beginning of a very impressive pipeline of growth projects here. You mentioned that you will have CapEx around EUR 400 million for this year, if I understood that correctly, and then north of EUR 400 million for the years after. What is the good CapEx number to assume for the next couple of years, given all of the projects which you got in mind?

Yes. It is, let's say, increasing, but you can say, over the next 3, 4 years, it will be around EUR 400 -- no, let's say, higher than EUR 400 million. Yes, that would be the guidance for the next 3 years.

EUR 400 million to EUR 500 million corridor, roughly speaking.

Yes, something like that. It is definitely above EUR 400 million.

The next question comes From Christian Obst.

First of all, concerning PIP cost reduction program is still in place, EUR 100 million until 2023. How does it fit to the current growth options? So are you still so reducing cost in the entire structure, but at the same time, investing heavily into growth. Can you a little bit bring that in some kind of a framework? This would be the first question, and I will follow with the next one afterwards.

Okay. Thanks, Christian. I will take that question. Rainer here speaking again. So I would say, please excuse me for that. You first have to breathe out to breathe in again, which means we had to, let's say, we'll clean up here and there, do some homework. We had, for instance, the PIP program is structured in 3 ways. On the one side, our administrative processes streamlining, which means a reduction of some 300 FTEs. Then the operation increase the performance in the operation, and we can clearly see that also in the last couple of months, especially here in our plant in Hamburg, at the same time, having a complete different view on how the maintenance processes work. And the third one was general procurement, so not material -- not our raw materials, but the general procurement and optimizing there the procurement of services and materials. And also there, we see a clear reduction in those costs by optimizing by getting better deals with our suppliers and so forth. So I wouldn't say that they -- these 2 things, the PIP program on the one side and the growth strategy on the other, to contradict each other. They don't. It was necessary to generate the, let's say, amount of space and amount of liquidity that we are having right now to, let's say, boost this move towards strategy. We'll continue with our PIP program until the year '22, '23 by -- last year, we had 80 million. We will achieve the 100 million pretty sure. We are well on track here. Also with regards to the FTE reduction, we have achieved pretty much definitely above 90%. I'm not sure now 95% or something like that. So we are pretty close to fully achieving our targets here. And then we will start and shift to the growth. What it does not mean also we have to be clear here is that we are not hiring people. Of course, we need to hire for our projects on the engineering side, on the procurement side. Here and there, we are hiring people. That's for sure.

Okay. Then concerning your scrap supply, so how much of the entire scrap in value is dedicated to Scrap #2? So the clean scrap more or less that how much is multimetal complex?

So we are just looking up the figure. I'm just getting it -- it should be 350,000 tons, right? No, it's more. No -- last year, it was extraordinarily high. So we had 400 and -- copper scrap just 436,000 tons. So there is some blister in it. Let's assume some 350,000 tons of copper Scrap #2. And the prices for copper scrap were very volatile. You know them. So you pick a number.

Yes. Okay. And then you had a very strong operating cash flow, of course, this year of so exceeding EUR 800 million. Can we expect some kind of a stronger reverse going into the current business year? Or what is your guidance throughout the quarter?

Yes, it was an extraordinary cash flow. That's for sure. I mean, profit is the best cash provider here. But we also had some specific effects, especially if we look to the concentrate delivery. So we had a bit an extended standstill in our plant in Pirdop, which led to the fact that we didn't have concentrate there. We didn't need it actually. Then the concentrate ship arrived. Ships arrived at the end of the fiscal year. But yes, increasing inventory on the one side, but we still have the liability so the payables on the other side, so which didn't have an effect on our networking capital. Of course, that is a onetime effect, and that will swing back in the first quarter. Overall, we still expect a strong cash flow. We will have a net cash flow somewhere around EUR 500 million this year. So no big swings back.

Okay. Very good. And then last one, a little bit the joint venture. Maybe we'll hear more on Monday, but maybe some first words concerning the cooperation with SMS. So SMS providing plant engineering, of course. You are providing expertise how to run this kind of plant. But going into the U.S., if this kind of modular concept is this still something which is up and running? Or is it something where you have integrated several modules so far? And the U.S. plant will be the first one of this kind of modular concept?

Well, let me answer -- Heiko speaking, let me answer that. It's not a joint venture. It's a cooperation with supplier where we aim to have now the first step with Aurubis Richmond and which is designed in a way that a similar plant can be built and plugged in either brownfield or greenfield at a location we deem suitable in the future. So we have elements being put together that can be combined in a certain way to grow with less engineering efforts and therefore, benefit. I hope that explains our cooperation.

Yes. But so far, you don't have a plant which is more or less in that structure somewhere in your Aurubis.

No, that is the first -- correct, that is the first step we do where we bundle our efforts in terms of procuring it from one source. We have plants that are structured in the same way, but not bundled by one supplier.

Yes. If I may add, Heiko, SMS, and you're probably aware, is one of the leading producers of this kind of equipment and machinery with a total amount of 14,000 people and well known in our industry as one of the leading suppliers. So therefore, it was, I think, a good move for both sides that market leaders, strong players in joint forces in order to develop this modular concept and then they join the platform to be in a position to quickly accelerate and implement new projects in the future. And as I mentioned, our strategy, short-term strategy discussion, we have not decided on projects yet. But as you can imagine, we are seriously working on these projects in order where to place then and what is the right timing going forward. So our idea is to grow in recycling and it's not just Aurubis Richmond.

Yes. And the last one is a recycling is also in the forefront of what the EU tries to achieve going forward, more recycling, metal recycling. Do you so far get any meaningful support from the EU or the German government?

I think we get a lot of nice statements, a lot of verbal support, I would say. And no, but to be answer a bit more seriously, this discussion that was also in Brussel Raw Materials week 3 weeks ago. And I think the mindset, the view on our industry has changed within Europe with the policymakers. They see the fund -- or this metal industry, this raw material industry is the foundation for green deal from the transformation that we all want to accomplish here in Europe to become the first climate-neutral continent in the world. And therefore, there is much more listening now to the needs and what this industry, what kind of conditions, what kind of policies we need to ensure that we can continue and grow and add recycling capacities in Europe. So I think we have open ears. And so I would call it there is clearly some support and listening to the needs of our industry.

But money wise, there is no subsidies at the moment. Let's also be clear. For the Richmond facility, for instance, there is, at the moment, no subsidies will come from the U.S. guys.

In the end, it's interesting because the steel industry is currently looking for a 50% CapEx for their first transformation step. And here, we have an industry which is directly into metal recycling, which is some kind of a name for the EU also, and there is more support so far. Nevertheless, thank you very much, all the best.

And the next question comes from Rochus Brauneiser.

Maybe can we start with maybe two more formal things I'd like to clarify. The one is on your reporting structure. Is it correct to assume that the new way you reported earnings between primary and secondary, which I think is great step forward. This is pretty much consistent what I've always had in the past already. So the metal gains are all linked with the CSP unit? Or is that pro rata in which operation they occur? That would be the first question.

Yes. Let me answer, it's Rainer, Rochus. Yes, you're right. So we are talking about multimetal recycling on the one side, and our custom smelting and products on the other. So it is, if you want to say so, a bit back to the routes. Nonetheless, we follow the input materials mainly here. That is the key driver. And it's also correctly assumed that, of course, the free metal, which is quite important. And you see that in the profitability of the recycling business is earned in, let's say, the first aggregate where we put it in. So in the first furnace, so to say, nonetheless, at the end, the fine gold. So all the anodes launches, how we call them, the anodes lines are coming to Hamburg, and we have here our precious metal plant, and we will bring out the gold and the silver and all the other precious metals here in Hamburg, nonetheless. The earnings for these free metals are happening in, let's say, the first furnace, which is either in the multimetal recycling, if it comes to the recycling business, or in the custom smelting and product, if it is in the concentrates.

Okay, okay. That's great for clarifying that. And the second thing is, maybe I missed something when you explain the new target for the recycling ratio. When I look at the cathodes output of [indiscernible] and where it comes from Bulgaria, from Hamburg or from Lunen, I would get to a follower kind of secondary input material-related ratio. So what's the main difference between looking bluntly at the cathode output whereas this recycling rate of 42% in 2018. So maybe I missed something.

Yes. No, thanks for the clarifying question. To clear, this ratio of recycled content, the percentage that we mentioned here is certified by different bodies. So we have built up the structure of how to report, what is the metal content in each of the input streams. So it has been a very, very detailed exercise and again, audited by TUF and also by KPMG. And so this number is solid and is correct. And it's given also the, let's say, the complex input mix that we have, not just in the recycling side, but also on the concentrate side. I think from the outside, it's quite difficult to model and reconcile the number easily as content can differ quite significantly. But again, it's certified numbers and therefore, correct.

All right. No, I was not doubting this is correct. It's just, as you said, difficult to reconcile that based on the numbers we have available now. Right. So on the working capital back in Q1, can you give us kind of a dimension how much working capital build we should expect in the fiscal Q1? And do we have already kind of thinking about the overall networking capital build or release in the whole fiscal year?

Again, a difficult question. And you know it. I mean, we have some possibilities. We do typically look at our target stocks towards the end of the year. With our operating EBT definition, we need to keep the LIFO method in place with the layered LIFO. So overall, there is no big intention, let's say, year-over-year to have bigger increases, let's say, set aside. Of course, once we ramp up the plant in Georgia, there for sure, we have a slight net working capital increase. But for the current fiscal year, overall, I would say it's in the normal course of business. As again said, we are looking at a net cash flow of some EUR 500 million. And in this net cash flow, all working capital changes are already included. That also should help you as a guidance on where do we expect the net working capital to be. So there will be a bit of a snapback in the first quarter, but I don't expect it to be, let's say, hundreds of millions.

Okay. Understood. Is there any chance to get a better color on the amount of metal gains in the first quarter?

As you know, we are quite secretive on our metal gains. So therefore, unfortunately, not that is something you have to do in your own Excel spreadsheet.

Okay. Then maybe on the Richmond project. Do we have already some sense back of the envelope, how much working capital needs you would associate to the -- this first wave of investments amounted to EUR 350 million?

Yes, good question. Sure, we have. But honestly, I don't have this number here at my fingertips now. The business case includes the whole, let's say, cash flow and requirements of this plant, obviously. But that's something we would have to deliver them afterwards. I don't have it here ready.

Okay. And then finally, more holistically on Richmond. I think Richmond is definitely hitting the right market. And so it's a good early move. How do you address the potential execution risk there? It will be your first big greenfield project in years and it is on a new continent, so to say. So what kind of processes will be in place that any risk from there is being minimized?

Yes, absolutely spot on question. So what we have done being aware that the first greenfield investment, significant greenfield investment of Aurubis in a different continent, we have done a very, very thoroughly analysis of risk and opportunities. And one point is the selection of the site. So we have now an industrial site selected in Richmond, in Georgia, which is fully prepared and also pre-authorized in all permission processes for this kind of industrial activity, which means we assumed a very smooth permission process for the investment there. We have a very strong support from the legal, from the county, from the state up to the governor in Georgia as they see this kind of first move, this recycling capability coming to the U.S.A. as a very important step in securing raw materials and starting circular economy in U.S. So I think on the surroundings from the political side, it's extremely strong support that we have seen throughout the project discussions there. That's the first pillar. The second pillar is, and we talked about SMS as a strong, let's say, performing company with a significant presence in the U.S. project teams and everything on site, or I'd say, in the U.S. plus the experience, very positive experience. So we have the provider of equipment, which is absolutely up to the job so that we have here an execution security for the equipment that couldn't be better given also the preparation that we have done. So I think to the point plus utilities and so on, everything is prepared on site. It's a complete industrial side. We are sure very confident that we have addressed all the issues and that we are able to execute these projects -- project in time and also in full until we start of production in the first half of '24.

Right, right. Understood. And then a follow-up to a previous question on the cooperation with SMS. I see the point on combining all the needs -- equipment needs under kind of one supplier roof. Very often, you see the opposite that companies want to avoid know-how transfer. So they pick bits and pieces and do their own captive integration. How do you secure and protect the know-how and the configuration and all these specifics which are behind such plant configuration? Are you going to have any protection behind that? Or how should we think about that?

Yes. Also, again, spot on. What we procure from SMS is the equipment. Again, our technology is really in the recycling and optimizing the input mix and doing all the metal recoveries in our processes. So therefore, this is our core technology, which we are not disclosing or sharing with -- and we don't have to share for the project with a company or any SMS or any equipment providers. So that's the first. And secondly, we have agreed with SMS, and we announced that, therefore, on a long-term cooperation, which means there in order for this type of equipment for multimetal recycling, we have a certain exclusivity, which means SMS will provide this kind of equipment, similar equipment to Aurubis only going forward, which means we can be more open because we know we have the security that our technology or what they see, how this is being set up and how the equipment is connected, given the full package that we're ordering from them, this cannot be shared and cannot be duplicated for any of our competitors.

And the next question is a follow-up question from Ioannis Masvoulas.

It's on custom smelting and products, the guidance for -- the EBT guidance for fiscal year '22. The midpoint is at EUR 240 million, which is a pretty big uplift year-over-year. Could you give us a bit of color on the underlying assumption on corporate TC/RCs. And also, is it fair to assume that on sulfuric acid, you expect a positive delta in the order of mid double-digit million euros?

Yes, I can take that question. So it's in principle, 3 important earnings driver. On the one side, a better throughput. For sure, we will have a higher throughput because we had an extended standstill in the last fiscal year in Pirdop. The envisaged standstill this year in Hamburg will be shorter. Second thing is, currently, the asset prices are literally going through the roof. So -- and we see a strong development also the coming months. There will be, let's say, at least 4 months, maybe a bit longer, there will be demand -- strong demand and the market is very strong. And you know this is a core product for Aurubis. So there is not too much cost attached. We typically said that we will earn EUR 15 million, 1-5 million in not so good years and 5-0, EUR 50 million in good years in the past. We can clearly say that we are absolutely well above the good years already today. So that is definitely the second -- the third one -- the second one already. And for sure, we have our ACP increase, which will cover some of the energy cost increases and so forth. We will -- we see product -- the product business very strong. So all the product business, please bear in mind is in CSP. So all the products are also going very well. If we look to rods, if we look to shapes, even the flat rolled business, we are restarting our plant in -- or we have restarted our plant in Stolberg here, again, which also had a very, very positive result last year. So that is also quite important. So the whole product business is up. And also, if we look to the concentrate side, we have mentioned it. We come from a benchmark of 59.5 -- 5.95. We definitely can expect. We don't have yet any conclusion. There has been no contract signed yet between the Chinese and some bigger mining company, but we can expect that for sure, the concentrate benchmark will be up as well.

So at the moment, there seem to be no further questions. [Operator Instructions] Let's just wait a couple of more seconds. Okay. So we have no further questions. So let me hand back to Ms. Brinkmann for some closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you. Finally, I would like to draw your attention to our next event. As very often mentioned before, we would be pleased to welcome you to our Capital Market Day on Monday from 1 p.m. onwards. You can find a link for the webcast here on the slide and, of course, on our website. Our next Q1 conference call will take place on February 7. Then the only thing that remains is for me to thank you for your attention, and we wish anyone who won't be attending our Capital Markets Day, a heavy Christmas season, and look forward to welcoming everyone else back on Monday. Have a nice weekend. Thank you, and goodbye.