AutoStore Holdings Ltd. (AUTO) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to AutoStore's Fourth Quarter 2025 Presentation. My name is Hiva Flaskjer, and I'm the Investor Relations Officer at AutoStore. I'll be moderating today's session. I'm joined by our CEO, Mats Hovland Vikse; and our CFO, Paul Harrison, and they're standing ready to walk you through this quarter and answer your questions. As usual, we would like to remind you of our disclaimer with regards to forward-looking statements. It can be read here at your own convenience. Moving on to the agenda. Mats will begin with an overview of our operational performance and strategic progress. Paul will then walk you through the financial results in more detail. We'll follow with a live Q&A session [Operator Instructions]. So after the Q&A, Mats will round off with some final remarks. And as a reminder, all our figures are stated in U.S. dollars. So with that, Mats, over to you.

Thank you, Hiva. So fourth quarter marked a strong finish to the year. Look, we can all agree that 2025 has been a volatile year, but it is now clear that the actions that we have taken are starting to show through in our results. In Q4, revenues grew 29% sequentially and 9% year-over-year to $180 million. Order intake increased 27% sequentially and 35% year-over-year to $194 million. Moving to profitability. We maintained our strong gross margins at 74% and our EBITDA margin ended at 43%. If we look at it through a full year lens, revenues ended at $539 million, down 10% compared to 2024. And as we stand here today, we still observe a market that holds a lot of the same characteristics as we've seen for a while. What we see though is that certain customers are now investing in automation and building that intelligent fulfillment platform that is needed to operate in a world where changes just happen at a pace and frequency like never before. The customers we signed in Q4 are a mix between those that we've worked with for a long time and new ones that has come in with higher velocity. In the quarter, we saw continued strength from industrials and other B2B segments, and we're also seeing some traction in retail. I'm also pleased to see that U.S. constituted more than 30% of our order intake. And in addition, we had several high throughput projects converted in the period. As we've talked about before, these are key growth areas for us, and the U.S. was one of the areas where we reallocated investment towards during 2025. Taking a step back, 2025 has been a year where we've made significant change and progress in the company. The market environment was very difficult at the start of the year as also reflected in our results. Following that, we took decisive actions and focus on what we can control. First, we have improved our ability to win, getting closer to our customers, reallocating resources and making sure that we're focused on the right sets of opportunities. We've added 150 new customers in 2025. And what is interesting, though, is that still existing customers accounted for about 60% of our revenues. And this to me talks about the potential of our land and expand model and the importance of deepened customer relationships. Second is that we're taking steps to improve the quality of our revenue. We have continued to invest in and monetize our software products, such as the Essentials Package that we released earlier in '25. Additionally, we've launched new business models with AutoStore-as-a-Service to better align with certain customer segments. And as an example, earlier this year, we won and shipped projects worth $34 million, and all of this has now gone live and started generating revenues for us. And third is that we continue to expand our leadership position through an improved pace of innovation. In 2025, we released 11 new products, including AutoCase, CarouselAI and Flexbins. And so far, we've seen strong commercial traction with very positive customer feedback, and we've now gotten involved in several projects that we otherwise would not have been able to do without these sets of capabilities. We do not stand still. Our next product announcement is coming up already in March, and I'm looking forward to showing you the progress that we've made. But altogether, these 3 pillars are setting us up for growth. As mentioned, there is still uncertainty in the market. And even though we see good momentum on several fronts, it's still too early to call how 2026 will evolve. But what we do know is that we are entering 2026 in a stronger position as a company than ever before. And that is partly as a result of the strong foundation that this strategy is built upon. The scale we have with nearly 2,000 systems across 65 countries gives us a true global presence. We've achieved that through a model that gives us industry-leading distribution with a strong partner network and a broad customer base of 1,300 customers. We do all this with a superior financial profile. We're set up for growth, high margins and high cash conversion. And look, we can achieve this scale with such a financial profile because we have a standardized, modular and flexible solution that works across a wide range of end markets. There's 2 takeaways I want you to take home from this page. First, we have a diversified customer base with customers using our solution for many different strategies: B2B, B2C, e-com, store fulfillment and much more. Second, our solution is trusted by world-class brands. And even with those that have started implementing AutoStore, it is still early days in terms of adoption. I always like to end with the customer story. And this time, we want to show our customer Polaris, who is a global supplier of outdoor and off-road vehicles. They have seen great benefit of incorporating AutoStore into their operations. So before Paul takes us through the financials of the quarter, please have a look at this. [Presentation]

Thank you, Mats, and good morning. That was a great example of a customer requiring an AutoStore solution, which would fall into our standard segment, which clearly delivered strong improvements across their key metrics. Now let's move on to the financial highlights on the next slide. Over the course of 2025, we saw a gradual stabilization of market conditions. So for the year, revenue came in at $539 million. Gross margin was 72% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 42%. Order intake reached $638 million and cash conversion was 76%. But turning to Q4, in particular, our performance was enhanced by a number of customers committing to projects that they have been evaluating for some time. The results also reflect strong operational focus, and we're seeing the early results indeed from our sharpened strategy. As a result, revenue came in at $180 million, up 29% quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-over-year. Gross margin was 74% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 43%. Order intake reached $194 million, bringing our backlog to $557 million, and cash conversion for the quarter was 84%. In Q4, as Mats mentioned, the strong order intake you see on this slide reflects growth across a broad range of end markets with retail showing renewed momentum. In addition and reflecting back to our Capital Markets Day in 2024, it's good to see progress in our high throughput space. Order intake reached $194 million, which took our closing backlog to a record high of $557 million. If I move now to revenue, sequentially, revenue grew 29% to $180 million in quarter 4. Europe remains strong, and North America also delivered another quarter of sequential progress. The standard segment delivered steady growth, and we also had a meaningful share of high-throughput projects landing in Q4 from both Europe and North America. So I'm pleased with the sequential improvements in order intake and revenues and the year-on-year growth of 35% and 9%, respectively. As you consider the year-on-year growth, remember, please, our comments about the unusual euro-U.S. dollar movements in Q4 of last year. If you adjust for those, the 35% and 9% I just referred to become mid-teens and single-digit growth numbers, respectively. Okay. Let's move on to margins. Gross margin came in at a particularly high 74%, reflecting a favorable product mix. Further down the P&L, the adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 43%, which is lower than the previous quarter. Now as we've said on a number of occasions, we're prepared to invest in growth, and you should expect us to continue to do this, balancing profitability with disciplined investment. This is a new slide, which we're presenting following the completion of the recent refinancing. As a reminder, we refinanced on the 5th November 2025 with $150 million 5-year term loan and a $350 million 5-year RCF. We continue to deliver strong underlying cash flow from operations with cash flow conversion at 84% in Q4, as I mentioned. Looking at the quarter in more detail, we see a high tax outflow of $48.4 million. This is primarily driven by the timing of tax payments in 2025 with the final true-up being finalized in the fourth quarter. And looking at working capital, we had an increase in receivables affecting free cash flow in Q4 as part of a normal seasonal pattern and a reflection of a large volume of sales booked in December. All of this took our net debt to $180 million at 31st of December, and our liquidity headroom remains strong at $372 million, split between cash of $90 million and the undrawn elements of the RCF at $282 million. Going forward, our new facilities will enable more agile and efficient treasury management with surplus cash being more readily applied to debt repayment without any loss of financial capacity. During 2025 as a whole, we continue to deleverage our balance sheet and our current net debt equals 0.8x adjusted EBITDA. As we talked about before, growth, both organic and inorganic, remains our highest priority. However, with these leverage levels and strong cash generation, capital allocation is a topic the Board regularly discusses. So with that, I'll pass back to Hiva.

Let's open up for some Q&A. And let's start with the ones on the webcast who are joining us on Teams, sorry. Eirik, I think I believe you're first. If you could please go ahead and unmute yourself.

I had a bit of a struggle getting on to the start of the webcast. So apologies if these were addressed early. But if we can start just with some housekeeping, Paul, on the exact FX impact on both orders and revenue. Is it correct to think that FX tailwind was approximately 15% year-over-year on orders and approximately 5% year-over-year on revenue?

Yes, you're in the right place there, Eirik. So to be precise, constant currency revenue growth around about 4%, constant currency order intake growth around about 14%.

Perfect. And also, Mats, I think I picked up on the comment you said that the U.S. was it more than 30% of orders in Q4? How was the order growth distributed between the other geographies? And could you also give some more color on high throughput versus standard in the quarter?

Of course, and you got that right. So U.S., more than 30% of orders. Europe remains strong north of 60% and remaining landing in APAC and some in Latin America. High throughput was also an area where we did make progress in the quarter, both on order intake and in revenue. So a few high throughput projects included in the mix there for sure.

Perfect. And I guess this is back to Paul. Your order book to revenue conversion was around 33% in the quarter, quite a meaningful step-up from both Q2 and Q3. How should we think about your ability to drive orders to revenue for the full year of '26? And are there also other factors such as as-a-service or longer project time lines for high throughput that we should take into account?

Yes. Look, I think it's obviously good to see that 33% conversion in Q4. It takes us back, if I take a long-term historic average to near that average and is better than the conversion rates we saw in quarter 1 to quarter 3, Eirik. I would just remind you that the comment we made about a number of those high throughput projects coming to fruition in quarter 4. So we need to be a little cautious about whether we see a sort of repeat of that conversion rate. What I will say to you is that the quality of our order backlog remains extremely strong.

Perfect. And while I'm still on, I'll go with a couple of more, and that's on the kind of demand side. Are you seeing any impact at all of like pull forward demand due to customers kind of front-running price hikes on memory chips and/or potential supply chain constraints, which has been a theme over the last couple of weeks?

No. I think in general, what we're seeing with customers is that many are now looking to implement automation because it has a meaningful difference for them in their operations. We haven't seen any meaningful difference because of either shortages or price hikes, et cetera. For our customers, I think this is more of a long-term investment that sees them building better operations versus accelerating it.

That's very clear. And just one which also is kind of on timing effects and the U.S. in particular. Are you seeing any impacts or just in the discussions you have with end customers around impact from the Big Beautiful Bill and potentially pulling forward some 2027, '28 projects to 2026?

No, I think in general, because we are now closer to our customers, we are discussing more road maps and longer-term implementations with it. It isn't, again, driven by kind of certain policies or certain supply chain expectations, but more on a long-term strategy basis.

Perfect. And then one last one, if I can bug you. Last -- less than a year ago, you initiated a cost program with about $10 million in annual savings. Today, you're writing that margins come down, reflecting investments in long-term growth initiatives. Can you share a bit more of your thinking here? And is this kind of a read that you've become incrementally not significantly more positive on short-term outlook over the last couple of months?

I'll make a couple of comments there, Eirik. Look, one thing that we were really pleased to do in 2025, we see quite a material proportion of our cost base move to what I call sort of front office functions. So I'm thinking about the commercial function and products. So we saw that mix shift, which is important. And to that end, recognizing that we remain inherently a highly profitable business with a highly standardized product driving a high gross margin, we will -- and we will continue to report a strong EBITDA margin. But within that range, we will invest, as you imply there to drive stronger growth. That's always been our priority.

And if you look at it, right, yes, we took out those costs, which was needed at the time. But we've also sharpened our strategy, and we see that strategy is yielding results. At the core of it, we're a growth business. As we see business cases or areas that we can invest in that will yield positive results for us both short-term and long-term, we will make those investments.

I think next up is Tim. If you could please go ahead and unmute yourself.

So a couple of questions have already been asked by Eirik. So I will just follow-up with some of the questions. So first of all, regarding revenue conversion in the quarter, obviously, this is a kind of step-up. Can I also just confirm whether there will be any projects that you originally scheduled in the first quarter and then it was delivered early in the fourth quarter?

I think there's always, Tim, a desire on the part of customers to close a year, place orders as part of sort of preparing for projects in the coming year. So there's always a year-end push. In that regard, I wouldn't characterize it as being abnormal, but I would draw your attention again to those high throughput projects that we've been working on for some time that came to a conclusion in the form of an order in Q4.

Understood. And then on the high throughput projects you mentioned, can I confirm how long in terms of project longevity cover the normal project for the projects that you got in the fourth quarter?

Tim, I'm sorry, just repeat that question. I'm so sorry.

Yes. So I'm just wondering how long we should consider in terms of project life for the high throughput projects that you got in the fourth quarter.

So I think the high throughput projects in the fourth quarter is likely to convert over the course of 2026. But on average, these projects do take longer time than what we see in the standard segment because it is larger projects, more complexity and project duration is generally longer.

Understood. That's clear. And then my last question is on the margin side. So I think this quarter, we have a margin decline on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis as I think that's the growth initiative investments. And if I look at the personnel expenses, it is kind of a step-up in the quarter. Can I just confirm whether there will be any one-off incentives in the staff expenses? Or we should consider this like an ongoing level?

You're right to identify that increase has been sort of related to personnel expenses. Of course, it's -- it becomes headcount investment in, as I say, those front office functions, particularly sales. And of course, as you get to a strong close of the year, the usual sort of accruals for sales bonuses and the likes are relevant as well.

So that means there could be some one-off items included in the staff expenses or not?

No, I'd say the item -- no, not one-off items. I'd say the items that you're seeing are partly related to the performance for the quarter and partly related to broader investment in the form of headcount into the commercial and product functions.

Understood. And then for this level of margin, can I assume it is something like a new norm level in terms of the EBITDA margin?

I think it's -- look, it's important to say we're not guiding specifically to margin today. But we are prepared with those dynamics. I talked about the inherent high profitability in the business. We are prepared to invest to return this business to growth. And let's be very clear, that is our #1 priority. But we are going to remain a highly profitable business. And these margins are still after all 43% in the period.

Toby, I believe you're next.

Just on the investments in longer-term growth initiatives, could you just unpack what are the biggest buckets of spend there? And just how you're thinking about this level of spend intensity going forward would be great.

So look, 2 big areas. One is that we're executing a strategy that sees us come -- coming closer to our customers. So building up the types of capabilities that sees us building those relationships and delivering that value to customers, both pre and post sales because that sees us better taking out the land and expand potential that we've talked about. The second area is around product. We've talked about the product strategy that we have in place and how that is both improving our current position and sees us entering new types of markets. And you'll see us continue that pace of innovation that we've had in 2025 with new product releases coming up now already in March. And in terms of go forward, as I said, our mentality is that if we can develop good solid business cases, we will make those investments.

Thank you, Toby. Nicolas, do you -- any question? No question there. No hands are raised now, I think. Well, sorry, Eirik, I apologize. Your hand is raised. Please go ahead and unmute yourself.

Just jumping back into your point about the solid gross margins. Paul, two questions on that note. Number one, on the cost side. Aluminum prices have been kind of steadily rising over the last couple of months. Could you just remind us on the contract structure and also hedging policy and when that potentially might impact the P&L? So that's on the cost side of the gross margin. And maybe more a question for Mats on the revenue side and on the competitive landscape. Any updates there, what you've seen through the quarter, pricing dynamics, anything that we should be aware of for both the short-term and medium-term?

Thanks, Eirik. I'll go first. Look, on the cost side, clearly, we are able to plan production several months forward, meaning we've got at any point in time, several months' worth of work in progress or finished goods in the form of robots in our factories. So that tends to create a lag effect in terms of exposure to commodity price movements. But -- and I will also point out that having moved away from single source providers, we can take advantage of still competitive tension that exists when procuring those raw materials. At the same time, as I've said before, we're not immune. Of course, we're not immune to those commodity prices, which is why you -- I've characterized for various reasons, the 74% gross margin in quarter 4 has been a particularly high one. And you've seen variability as a result of the fact that you're raising as a result of product sales mix as well, and that will continue.

And in terms of pricing dynamics, we see that our competitive situations remains very similar as it has been for a while now with the same type of players. What we do see though is that because we are getting closer to customers, we can be kind of even more crisp in explaining the value to those customers. And the second point I'll make is that because of those product releases that we've had during 2025, we're also now competing in projects that we haven't been able to compete in before. But looking at the data, we maintain our very, very high win rates.

Thank you, Eirik. Petter, I believe you had your hand up.

Yes. I'm not sure if you can hear me. I had some trouble getting into the call. But I do have a question on the cost base. It might also have been answered, but nevertheless, I'll go. Is the cost base in Q4 representative for the coming quarters?

I think I will refer back to the answer I gave earlier. We will, at all times, take account of opportunities to accelerate revenue and that will see variability in our cost base. So we're not specifically guiding to the cost base. What I will also say, again, repeat is the inherent profitability, high levels of profitability in the gross margin level and an EBITDA margin level will continue to prevail, but we will be agile.

Okay. Paul. If I might, just giving a follow-up question on that one. Does that mean that it gives you a little flexibility in a quarter which you could see some softer sales, you have some flexibility on the cost side. How should we view that one?

Look, to some extent, a substantial portion of our cost base is people, of course. So flexibility in terms of hiring plans, yes, we do have. But at the same time, with substantial sort of a employee base in the business. So be mindful of that as well. But clearly, on hiring plans, we can accelerate hiring plans where we see opportunity to accelerate growth consistent with Mats' early observations about strategies, including getting much closer to our largest customers.

Well, actually, Petter, if you have any additional questions, please go ahead. There are no other hands raised. So please go ahead and unmute yourself, Petter.

My question has been answered.

Okay. And you are -- there are no other questions as far as I can see in the Teams meeting. I'll just quickly have a look if we've received any questions on the chat. We have one question from [ Simon ]. What does the management evaluate to be the best capital allocation for the future? And what are other key points for future growth?

Okay. I'll certainly take the first of those. Best capital allocation, and I want to stress again, the best capital allocation is to support growth in the business, both organic and inorganic. But clearly, when you're a business that is strongly cash generative as AutoStore with such a strong balance sheet as well, there is also the opportunity, which the Board considers from time to time to return cash from shareholders. And those 3 elements are not mutually exclusive. So that is an active debate that the Board has.

And I'll repeat the headlines of what we've already discussed. We're executing against a sharpened go-to-market strategy that sees us getting closer to customers. We're investing in key product initiatives that sees us both strengthening existing solution, expanding that into new areas and new problems to be solved for our customers, increasing addressable market and also building a software platform that sees us and our customers draw advantages from all of those other key strategic areas.

Thank you, Mats. That was the only question in the chat. [Operator Instructions] No. I think that concludes our Q&A session for today. Thank you. I'll hand over the word to you, Mats.

Thank you. So let me summarize what we have presented to you today and also remind you of some key points. First, we operate in a large underpenetrated market supported by long-term structural trends. Second, 2025 was a volatile year, but we responded decisively. We've streamlined the organization, sharpened our commercial focus, improved backlog conversion and maintained solid profitability. And while the environment in early 2026 remains broadly in line with last year, we are in a much stronger position than what we were a year ago. We have a solid foundation supported by a scalable solution across industries and geographies. And with a more customer-centric go-to-market model, we're working closer with customers and just strengthening our overall land and expand strategy. And as you've heard me say many times before, we're not standing still. In 2025, we launched 11 new products that saw us extending the cube into adjacent workflows, solving real customer challenges and expanding our addressable market. Our upcoming biannual launch in March will build on this momentum, and we look forward to share in a months' time. So taken together, these elements gives us confidence in our direction and the ability to create long-term value. So I'd like to thank you for dialing in today and look forward to speaking to you again soon.