Avanti Feeds Limited (512573) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 9, 2020

BSE Limited IN Consumer Staples Food Products earnings 67 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Pavitra, moderator for the conference call. Welcome to Avanti Feeds Limited Q1 FY '21 Results Conference Call, hosted by KFin Technologies Private Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is recorded. I would now like to hand over the floor to Mr. Sherwin Fernandes from KFin Technologies. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Sherwin Fernandes;KFin Technologies

analyst
#2

Thank you, Pavitra. Good afternoon, good evening to all. We, at KFin Technologies, would like to welcome and thank each one of you for your participation in the Q1 FY '21 post results earnings call. The call will be initiated with the management remarks followed by Q&A. Management team is represented by Mr. C. Ramachandra Rao, Joint Managing Director; Mr. A. Venkata Sanjeev, Executive Director; Mr. Alluri Nikhilesh, Executive Director, Avanti Frozen Foods Private Limited; Mr. Venkateswara Rao, General Manager, Corporate Office; Ms. Santhi Latha, GM, Finance and Accounts; and lastly, Ms. Lakshmi Sharma, Company Secretary, Avanti Frozen Foods Private Limited. I now hand the call over to Mr. C. Ramachandra Rao. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

C. Rao

executive
#3

Thank you, Mr. Sherwin. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We extend a warm welcome to all for this investors conference call today to review the unaudited financial results of Q1 FY 2021. Along with me here are Mr. Venkata Sanjeev, Executive Director; Mr. Nikhilesh, Executive Director; and Ms. Santhi Latha, GM, Finance and Accounts; Mr. M.V. Rao, GM, Corporate Affairs; and Lakshmi Sharma, Company Secretary; and other team members. Results of Q1 FY 2021 are already with you for some time now, and we are sure that you have -- you would have already gone through them. Here are some of the key indicators from the financial results in Q1 FY 2021. The consolidated financial results for Q1 FY '21. Q1 FY '21 results with comparative performance of Q1 FY '21 with that of Q1 FY '20 and Q4 FY '20 have been given in the presentation already circulated. Gross income in Q1 FY '21 is INR 982.76 crores as compared to INR 1,046.43 crores in Q4 FY '20, a decrease of INR 63.67 crores at 6.18% and INR 1,111.52 crores in Q1 FY '20, a decrease of INR 128.76 crores at 11.58% when compared with Q1 FY '21. The PBT has decreased of INR 128.76 at -- sorry, at INR 147 crores in Q1 FY '21 as compared to INR 126 crores in Q4 FY '20, an increase by 16.75% and INR 145.27 crores in Q1 FY -- an increase by 1.26%. Increase in PBT when compared with previous quarter is on of account increase in other income and decrease in other expenses. Stand-alone results of Feed and Processing divisions. Feed financial results Q1 FY '21. The gross income for the Q1 FY '21 is INR 795.43 crores as compared to INR 921.72 crores in the corresponding quarter Q1 FY '20, registering a growth of INR 126.29 crores at 13.70%. PBT for the Q1 FY '21 is INR 112.47 crores as compared to INR 121.56 crores in the corresponding quarter of Q1 FY '20, and decrease of INR 9.09 crores at 7.48%. Shrimp processing results -- Q1 FY '21 results. The gross income for Q1 FY '21 is INR 189.30 crores as compared to INR 191.20 crores in the corresponding quarter of Q1 FY '20, registering a degrowth of INR 1.90 crores at 0.99%. The PBT for Q1 FY '21 is INR 34.20 crores as compared to INR 23.58 crores in the corresponding quarter of Q1 FY '20, an increase of INR 10.62 crores at 45.04%. Implementation of shrimp hatchery, a long-awaited and much delayed hatchery with 200 million seed capacity has been completed and is ready to start, awaiting certain statutory clearances to commence commercial operations. It is expected to commence production by end of this year after receiving the approval by the competent authority. The industry overview and future forecast is as in the -- before venturing into future forecast of the industry, it is necessary to review once again the impact of for COVID-19 on shrimp culture industry and global shrimp demand, as we did in our previous investors call in July '20. The coronavirus continues to spread world over unabated and hoping for a vaccine to be developed to save the humanity from this deadly virus. As the reports indicate, there is a possibility of a vaccine available by end of this year. We hope the clinical trials that are in the advanced stage now will be successful, and the vaccine will be available as soon as possible. As all of you know, the global economic situation is highly depressing, and no solution appearing in near future. India has been no exception for this phenomenon, evident from the fact that GDP has registered a degrowth of 23.9% in Q1 2021. The COVID-19, in fact, has aggravated already hit Indian economic growth for the past 3 to 4 years. Though the Government of India has announced COVID-19 stimulus package for various sectors, the implementation and fruits of it are yet to be seen. We do hope these initiatives aimed at Make In India and Atmanirbhar Bharat policies of the Government of India would go a long way in bringing the economy back on track. Coming to the shrimp industry, as it is happening in all other industries, the aquaculture is also affected by COVID-19. The shrimp culture activity came to standstill in India during April and May when lockdown was implemented. The situation is gradually improving -- gradually improved. Compared to other industries, such as luxury goods, hospitality, travel and tourism, et cetera, the shrimp industry is relatively better placed since it is a food item. The recovery of this industry appears more encouraging than others. The demand for shrimp dropped globally by about 30% to 35% as an initial reaction due to closure of restaurants, malls and public eating places like food courts, et cetera. However, the demand is increasing from retail sector to compensate to some extent. Let's hope that the stability will be restored gradually once the pandemic comes under control and preventive vaccine is made available. Shrimp production and Feed consumption in India in 2020. The shrimp production in India has registered a growth of about 10% to 12% at 8 lakh tonnes in 2019 as compared to 6.85 lakh tonnes in 2018. Shrimp Feed consumption has registered a growth of about 10% at 11,50,000 tonnes in 2019 compared to 10,20,000 tonnes in 2018. In view of the COVID impact, the global demand in production is expected to come down by about 15% to 20% in FY '21 compared to FY '20. Basing on the present shrimp culture situation in India, the decrease in shrimp production estimated by about 15% to 20% during FY '21, unless the impact of COVID aggregates in the country, particularly in the states where shrimp culture is undertaken extensively. In spite of taking all measures like sanitization, social distancing, checking of fever, et cetera, in the factories, the drop in attendance, obviously, due to fear of corona is noticeable. We do hope that the severity will reduce soon and normalcy will be restored. In view of the anticipated drop in shrimp consumption globally by about 15% to 20%, correspondingly shrimp production is likely to come down and shrimp feed consumption in India during 2021 is expected to be around 10 lakhs metric tons as compared to 11.50 lakhs metric tons in 2019. However, the company sales for FY 2021 are expected to be maintained at the same level of 2019-'20. As we know, Avanti has not only been keeping its farmers base intact, it is also adding new farmers and new areas to its sales network year-after-year. During FY '21, the company is also expecting to maintain its market share of 46% to 48%. Shrimp processing and exports. Shrimp production and export from India in 2019 was around 8 lakh tonnes and is expected to be around 12.25 lakh tonnes in 2020. The demand for shrimp has dropped globally by about 30% to 35% as an immediate reaction of COVID-19 due to closure of places, as I told you earlier. It's gradually picking up, and we hope that it will soon be stabilized. We continued to focus on export of value-added products and exploring opportunities in new markets [indiscernible] area. The apprehensions of the industry in India. The apprehensions of the stakeholders from the aqua culture industry in India as of now and the mitigating steps initiated by the government of India. Having shared with you the company's perceptions and forecast of FY '21, it is pertinent to mention that some of the policy decisions taken by the government off late appear to be detrimental to the sustainability of the industry in the long run. Recently, the Government of India has tapped MEIS, an incentive for export of shrimp to INR 2 crores for 4-month period from 1st September to 31st December '20, which was earlier 5% on FOB value of its -- FOB value. Further, with effect of 1st January '21, the MEIS will be totally discontinued. This will be a significant discouraging step for exports, which is likely to have cascading effect on the farm fate prices also. However, the government is proposing to introduce RoDTEP, which means Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products Scheme by which the relief is given to the exporters replacing MEIS. The details of the scheme are yet to be -- yet to come. We have given all the information required for the taxes and all, how much we are paying, what is the component of taxes on our raw materials and fuel, et cetera. We hope this will neutralize the impact of withdrawal of MEIS, which will not be -- which will not have impact on farm gate prices. Apart from this, to boost exports of fish and fisheries products, the government has allocated a total investment of about INR 20,050 crores on Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana, this is called as PMMSY, as part of COVID-19 relief package, Atmanirbhar Bharat package. This is using a design to address critical gaps in fish production -- productivity, quality and technology, post-harvest infrastructure and management, modernization and strengthening of value chain, traceability, establishing a robust fisheries management framework and fisheries welfare with an aim to achieve 1 lakh crores exports in the next 5 years and that is during 2024-'25, doubling of the incomes of fisheries and -- fishers and fish farmers, reduction of post-harvest losses, generation of additional 55 lakh direct and indirect gainful employment opportunities in fisheries and related activities. This scheme is being launched -- being relaunched by the Honorable Prime Minister at 12:00 tomorrow, that is 10th September '20. We are very much confident that this initiative of the government would go a long way in supporting the farmers in all ways for building up the infrastructure and to solve the working capital needs or working needs and other facilities, making aquaculture sustainable for all the stakeholders and the short-term constraints should go -- get over gradually as there is perpetual demand for marine products globally. With this, I conclude my review, and we will now take up the questions from you. Thank you. Mr. Sherwin -- Pavitra, I think we'll start the questions -- question-and-answer session.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] We have first question from the line of Nitin Awasthi from East India Securities.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#5

I had 2 questions. Firstly, on the MEIS resolve from the government, most of the processors are not into value-added production where margins are quite thin compared to what Avanti does is processing. So are you seeing an immediate impact of that on the ground, whereas the processors are trying to push the prices down so that they can still make a margin by adjustment of raw material prices?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#6

Nitin, this is Nikhilesh. Good evening to you. So the MEIS scheme, as we discussed, has been removed -- partially removed with a cap till December. The farm gate prices are -- we cannot say that the whole margin will be recovered from only the farm gate prices. We are also trying to move up the -- working on moving up the selling price. I think from what I'm seeing, we have revised our course for the current bids and also the long-term bids, trying to recover whatever margin that we have lost on the government rebate and the selling market -- and the selling price also. But we have to see -- the most important is to be competitive. There are other shrimp producing countries we are competing with. So we need to see what is the price point at that -- in those countries and match that. So the -- it will be absorbed. I feel personally that it will be -- the 5% will be absorbed not only by the farm gate prices but also the processors margin and upping the selling price and also the intermediaries inside the supply chain. So it will be observed by all of them a little by little by little. So it's uniform throughout the chain.

C. Rao

executive
#7

I may add to what Mr. Nikhilesh said that the government is really working to support the exporters by what the new scheme, they call it as Remission of Taxes and Duties on Export Products, and we are expecting that, to a great extent, this will neutralize the impact of withdrawal of MEIS. If they can -- whatever the percentage that they give, that will add up so that the farmers will have that support. We need not have to pass on the entire burden of that to the farmers and farmers -- ultimately, it is the interest of the farmers that we have to look into. So the -- so even if the -- we don't know exactly the scheme, how they're working, but they have called for lot of information, and we have submitted the information, and we are expecting some decision would come soon, which will replace the MEIS because this is time period they have allowed this, and we hope that they implement immediately, and that will take care of the imbalance that what we are facing now.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#8

And that is the intention that was given by the government also.

C. Rao

executive
#9

Yes.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#10

Okay. So as of now, on the ground, has things changed because of this decision as the farm gate price is corrected, like you stated that everybody is seeking -- trying to absorb a little by little and trying to adjust -- the whole scene is trying to adjust. So has the farm gate prices adjusted accordingly?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#11

The farm gate prices have corrected a little bit, yes, but also the selling price has also moved up so that we are -- and this is very recent. It is given out on September 1st. So it's very early and premature to give any comment. But we are seeing adjustments on all sides, not only the farm gate prices but all sides and all parts of the supply chain.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#12

Okay. So also as a very important and critical part of the supply chain would be a feed component of it. And the company has already taken a INR 1 price cut on its feed. So does it foresee any further price cut either trying to -- I don't think the situation would provide for it to recap and increase the prices, but does the situation get worse? Does the company foresee that they have to take further price cuts?

C. Rao

executive
#13

See, that depends on how the rest of the year goes. What information we are getting is, some of the competitors, some of the feed manufactures are resorting to some sort of slashing the prices and all because of the reasons like loss of their market and all, sales. But we feel that such kind of -- such a slash of prices will not really help because the raw material prices are more or less stable now, maybe a rupee this side and that side, it will not really impact much but a big discount or big scheme that will reduce the prices to the farmers will -- they will have to compromise on the -- perhaps the quality of the thing. But we do not foresee such a situation. We try to balance our total -- the pricing. And we don't resort to any price decrease as of now. There's no such proposal to decrease because INR 1 we have decreased -- reduced recently. We don't have any proposal as of now to reduce the price further.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#14

Got it, sir. And just lastly, like you pointed out, if you could just shed some light on the key raw materials and how the price movement has been or this is the new...

C. Rao

executive
#15

See, the prices -- yes, as you know, the major raw material prices are fish meal, the soya bean meal and the wheat flour. These are the key prices. What we are observing is that the prices are more or less, they are stable because the crop -- the rains have come -- good rains were there. Except a part of Madhya Pradesh, most of the -- the area has gone up and the -- unlike last year, this year, the production is likely to be higher than the last year. The availability of soya bean is much more than last year. So we feel that there should not be much the increase in the price, it should -- stable, it should be INR 1, again, as I told you, it will be more or less, it should be on the same line. Similarly, fishmeal also, [indiscernible] today, the -- there has been fish ban till 15th of September. In the normal course, it should have started. But in the 1st of August, it should have started -- fish catches should have started. But because of this virus -- coronavirus and all, the fisherman did not go for catches. So they -- now they are starting it on, again -- resuming it on 15th of September. And because there's a gap of 45 days and there have been good rains also, the indications are that they could get good catches. The production of fishmeal also will be fairly good. So that assures us the stability of the price. It may not be much upward trend in the price of that. Similarly, the wheat also -- good wheat production. The -- more or less, the stable price is likely to continue the whole quarter. We don't foresee a big surprise in the rest of the year.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#16

Okay, sir. So if you could just quantify the prices as they were on -- in the -- during the quarter and in the similar quarter last year?

C. Rao

executive
#17

It is around INR 93, INR 94 -- that has been the -- I think, more or less same, INR 93, INR 94. The soya bean was little higher last year. It is now INR 40 to INR 43. The grade which we use, high grade is about INR 40 to INR 43. And this marginally has come with -- the wheat flour has come down from INR 25 to INR 24. That has come -- about INR 1 reduction is there. We hope that this will continue for the rest of the year. See, what happens is sometimes the government suddenly intervenes and they fix the MSP for the farmer. So there, the increase in the price is possible. But I don't think -- recently, they have increased the price MSP. I don't think the rest of year, there will be any further increase of MSP.

Operator

operator
#18

[Operator Instructions] We have next question from Depesh Kashyap from Equirus Securities.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#19

Sir, can you please quantify what was the total export incentives that you booked in this particular quarter, please?

C. Rao

executive
#20

Yes. I think Nikhilesh will answer it.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#21

Yes. The total export incentives we have accounted for -- during the quarter is INR 8 crores.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#22

INR 8 crores?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#23

Yes.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#24

Yes. So this is MEIS or including duty drawback also?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#25

This is only MEIS and duty drawback is INR 4.6 crores.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#26

INR 4.6 crores. Okay, understood.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#27

Yes.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#28

Sir, you're talking about the RoDTEP scheme that is going to replace MEIS. I just wanted to understand, is there clarity when it will come, like will it be replacing from January 1st of next year or do you think it will maybe delayed to the next fiscal year?

C. Rao

executive
#29

There's no clarity, Mr. Depesh. But it appears that they want to do it immediately. There has been a lot of pressure. And actually, 7th was the last date to submit all the information. They wanted to know what is the component of taxes, excise -- I mean, this GST and other duties and all. We have given all the information. Basing on that, they want to announce the remission of the duties and taxes. We hope that they would decide it sooner. So that will be -- I think to some extent, they may -- INR 2 crores, they have fixed as far as the -- these 4 months are concerned. We are yet to see what they're going to do on that. Because they have not spread out the date when it will be implemented, the modalities and what they are looking into. All these details are not available as yet. They have only called for all the information, we have submitted that.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#30

Understood, sir. And sir, on the Processing segment, even adjusting for the one-off FX gain that you have seen, the Processing segment was -- the margins were very high, I think all-time high at 17-odd percent. So can you please help me what was the reason for the same in the couple of quarters?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#31

So there are 2 main factors. I think in the first quarter, we did see a dip in the pricing of the raw material due to the panic created by the pandemic. There were panic harvest that what we discussed in the call last quarter. So our long-term contracts which were well priced also were -- got double positive effect because of that. And also, we are focused on moving into higher value-added products, higher-margin products and also working with customers with high-quality requirements has given fruitful results. I think that's what we've been talking about over the last 1 year. So it takes time for them to start kicking in. So that's what's happened.

C. Rao

executive
#32

And also, I think that we had good ForEx gain. About INR 6 crores we got from the foreign exchange gain.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#33

That is the part of other income, sir. That I've already excluded. So even after that, the margins were pretty good. So...

C. Rao

executive
#34

Yes. Okay. Okay.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#35

Yes. And Nikhilesh, can you please quantify what was the share of the value-added products in the -- in this quarter vis-à-vis the last quarter?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#36

I -- so we've done 25%.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#37

So I think it was similar level last year -- last quarter and last year also, right, or it was different?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#38

But it also depends on what contracts we're executing, right? So value-added has a lot of products that has more bearing to it. So there are some value-added products that we dropped from the previous quarter, then got into other products.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#39

Right. And in this quarter, also, your share of U.S. has gone down and U.S. -- Asia, I suppose that is China only, so that has increased substantially. So do you think in the next quarter that will be corrected?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#40

Yes. I think -- see, in the last quarter, primarily, like I was saying, again, there was a lot of panic harvest. And also, we had a lot of -- we had lower footfall of workers in our factories just because there's a lot of isolation efforts being done in the communities. But -- so we focused on doing more commodity products to drive down the [indiscernible] in the factory and also move out the volume, which our farmers require us to buy. So that's why the share of China has increased. But since things have started normalizing over the last few months, our focus and execution of orders to the U.S. has also increased. So you will see this again getting back to normal in the next few quarters.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#41

Okay. Understood, sir. And lastly, Rao sir, you highlighted in your opening remarks that the PMMSY scheme is going to be launched tomorrow. So I also read that in the news article. So what exactly is going to happen? And do you think -- do you get any clarity that you will be at -- now you have a clarity of what you want to invest in going forward that you have been looking for the last 2 years?

C. Rao

executive
#42

Yes, that's right. One good development is that the -- definitely, the government, they want to boost these exports, fishery products to 1 crore lakhs -- sorry, 1 lakh crores in these 3, 4 years. And one of the major areas, what we understand is that they want to build the infrastructure and particularly the small and medium farmers sector, they are going to support, and also give the processing and storage facilities also they want to encourage. So I think they are routing this amount through NABARD and some of these banks, the cooperative banks and all, they are routing this one. I think the farmers will take advantage of that. Perhaps they may form into small clusters and form and -- this thing, it was -- a long time back this concept was there, cluster of farmers joined together and form into an association, thing like that, and take loans from the banks and subsidies and invest that in the infrastructure and also that cold storage plants, all these things will happen that we hope -- because so long, the government has been saying that they will invest. But now as part of this COVID-19 package, they have brought this also, and it is good that this will help the farmers a lot. Now ultimately, it is the farmer who has to really sustain. See, the prices going up and down in the international market, but basically, the farmer has to sustain by meeting his infrastructure needs as well as his -- the needs of working capital, like power, feed, et cetera. All these things, if you can -- the government can really help the farmer, I feel -- I think, it will be a very good initiative encouraging the farmers to undertake the shrimp culture. And of course, the fishery is also growing. That is where recently our CMD also mentioned in his remarks in the recent AGM that we are looking into the fish feed and some of the pet feeds because when the fishery industry grows, perhaps there is an opportunity for fish feed also, which we have been talking for a long time. That may take a shape in the time to come now.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#43

Okay. So till now there is nothing that is like clear like what you will do with the...

C. Rao

executive
#44

See, tomorrow you are launching -- see, question is this INR 20,000 crores. First, I thought that entire INR 20,000 crores will come from the central government, but it is not so. They have divided into 3 parts. One part, central government will give. One part, something like INR 8 crores -- INR 800 crores -- INR 8,000 crores, they will give it. INR 4,000 crores state government has to give it. Some INR 4,000 crores, stakeholders have to give it. Some scheme they are trying to bring in. But the details are not known. Broadly, they said this is going to be the structure. And they have said that all the states have positively responded. They have agreed for the scheme. Overall, so almost like 70% to 80% of the funds would come from the state and central governments. So the -- I think if they start releasing these funds, definitely, the industry will get benefited. All the stakeholders will get benefited.

Depesh Kashyap

analyst
#45

Understood, sir. One last question, if I may, sir, that the COVID cases in Andhra Pradesh are rising like very sharply. Are you facing any utilization problems in your processing or feed plants?

C. Rao

executive
#46

The -- it's true that the cases in Andhra Pradesh are really around 10,000 plus. That's what we are seeing the reports. And -- but we did not really find much that -- impact of that, but there is definitely -- as Mr. Nikhilesh mentioned, the footfall has been a little erratic, coming and going. But by and large, we find that it is okay. We are able to meet our requirements.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#47

And also, we are doing a lot of social distancing and preventive measures. So by word of mouth and also when workers come in, they're feeling more comfortable working in such an environment because all of us do need to work at the end of the day. It's been a very long time since pandemic broke out. So taking a lot of sanitation steps. We're doing sanitation 3, 4 times. Capacity of the bus is reduced to 50% and also increased the number of vehicles so we can get in more workers. So there are steps that we have been taking over the last few months, which are kicking in and increasing our utilization step by step. And going forward, it should be increasing in that trend. But of course, how this pandemic is controlled also plays a significant factor on the utilization.

C. Rao

executive
#48

And one more thing is most important in -- unlike many industries, we have not removed anyone. And we have paid full salaries. We have paid full bonus. We have put all the incentives that are actually due to them as a normal year. We have not deprived the -- our employees, workers of any financial benefits that we were giving earlier. So we continue -- that is giving the good confidence to all the workers and employees also to be more loyal and come to the works -- work spot and do work. That's -- I think, it's going a long way. I mean, it is helping us a lot to -- this kind of a measure. And also, moreover, as Nikhilesh said, we are giving all help to them, like taking -- we have taken -- those who are affected by that quarantine and allowing them to work from home and wherever it is possible. And also, we have covered insurance also. All these steps have given our -- the employees and workers lot of confidence in the company. So that's how we have been able to maintain the workers' turnout.

Operator

operator
#49

[Operator Instructions] We have next question from Deepak Mehta from Metlife Insurance.

Deepak Mehta;Metlife Insurance

analyst
#50

So my question is in regards with the China. So what is the trend for export, if any?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#51

So I mean, over the last 3 years, China has been a significant market for all shrimp exporters, including India and Avanti. I think this quarter, under discussion, we've done considerable export to China, and it continues to be an important market for us. However, at the moment, our sales to China are not -- they're normalized from -- to what it was in the previous few quarters. What we had this quarter was exceptional because of the situation of the pandemic. But it would be normalized over the next few quarters. We are working with select few importers from China where we're trying to develop value-added products. And right now, the Chinese market really commands demand for commodities products, which we do not really specialize in. We specialize more on the value-added segment. So we are working in that segment, trying to penetrate the market. I think over the next few years, maybe 5 years or 10 years, it should become the most dominant shrimp importer in the world. There are some trade disputes and everything ongoing right now, which should normalize and things should pick up again.

Deepak Mehta;Metlife Insurance

analyst
#52

Okay, sir. And my next question is about the growth. What is the guidance for this year? And if we compare in last 3 years, we have grown exponentially as compared to our competitors. So what will be the future expectation for this or maybe next 2, 3 years? And what about the market share? Are we gaining the market share from other players?

C. Rao

executive
#53

Yes. Is it regarding feed or exports? If -- let me answer the first, the feed. The feed as such, we've just said that this year, we are going to almost like achieve the same levels as we did it in last year under these circumstances. And we have been quite -- that way, we are able to maintain our market share in spite of the degrowth. We have been maintaining a reasonably good market share 48%, and we may even, like 1% or 2% will tie to our effort -- our endeavor is to increase the share. And the most important thing is that at this time, it is necessary to maintain our farmer base intact and also trying to attract more and more farmers from other competitor feeds. This has been -- we are working planning and everything, executing it only with that focus. And we hope that we should be able to achieve this -- the growth. What we -- conservatively, we feel that we should be able to maintain the last year's -- in spite of degrowth, last year's performance levels, we should be able to maintain this year also. As far as the next 2 years concerned, I think it is too premature to, I mean, forecast the demand, supply and all. But we do hope that if you look at the way in which the country is moving now with all the steps that which we discussed till now, it has to grow because of the -- lot of focus is being laid by both the government as well as the private sector. So definitely, the growth will be there next but it is very premature to say what is the growth rate? What is the profitability and all, it is too premature. Maybe by end of this year, we may be able to have a broad idea about the future.

Operator

operator
#54

[Operator Instructions] We have next question from [ Omkar Kulkarni ] from Shree Investments.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#55

My question is similar to the question the previous participant asked. Now you are operating at around, say, 48 -- 46%, 48% market share. So from where do you see the growth coming because mostly the tonnage in terms of shrimp consumption it’s same and the prices are also similar to what they were in the previous year.

C. Rao

executive
#56

Mr. Omkar, your voice is very feeble. It's not clear. We have not been able to say, get to your question. Can you please repeat?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#57

Yes. Yes. Can you hear me now?

C. Rao

executive
#58

Yes. It's now good. Yes, yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#59

Yes. My question was basically regarding now you have very high market share, say, 46% to 48%. So -- and so how do you plan to grow in the shrimp feed segment because the growth -- whatever the growth will be coming will be coming from the export market. So -- and that segment contributes very little to the overall top line and bottom line. So how do you plan to grow the business going forward, say, next 3 to 5 years? Because earlier, most of the growth came from the shrimp feed and now because of many reasons it is not growing that much. So how do you plan to grow the overall business of Avanti Feeds Limited?

C. Rao

executive
#60

See, basically now -- we have 2 sectors which I think -- feed is about -- we have got -- we have market of 46% to 48% now. Basically, the shrimp production and the feed consumption are interlinked. They are interdependent. So we are expecting that the shrimp production would go up in the coming years because of -- there is a global demand and also, there is a lot of incentivizing by the government and also a lot of focus being laid on this sector. So definitely, there will be growth in the next couple of years. Once the shrimp culture or the fish culture grows up, then naturally the feed demand also goes up. See the -- and coming to the percentage of market is concerned, as we have been increasing our market share year after year, so in spite of so many feed manufacturers in India, we have been able to retain our leadership in the market for the last, almost like 8 to 10 years, we have been undisputed leaders in the market by virtue of the quality of feed, the performance of the feed and technical services we given to them, and we give to them. So these things are our basic strengths that -- this continues to be there and we'll further strengthen it. And as we go forward, we will maintain this and even we may cross even 50% also. There is no surprise if we are able to achieve this. This is how we want to plan the growth. Of course, other areas are there where, as a company, if you're growing, that is one sector is again, the organic growth, like, again, going into the fish feed or pet feed and all is other areas where we can expand our activities. Similarly on the processing side, yes, we want to increase the value-added products, maybe capacity. We want to increase the capacity and find new markets, new products and all. This is the plan ahead of us. Only, we are -- this is the year of testing time. The corona has really taken the entire -- the world to a standstill now. So we hope that gradually it will pick up in the next couple of years, things will again brighten up, and we should be able to move forward, progress. It's what our plan.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#61

Okay. The second question I have is basically, you mentioned that because of this pandemic the situation is very grim all over the world. So don't you think that the cash balance you have -- don't you think that's a good opportunity for inorganic growth to pick some -- pick the stake in some good companies where you can reap the benefits going forward? Because this question has been coming for last, say, 2, 3 years, what would be the -- what would you be doing with the surplus cash you are generating?

C. Rao

executive
#62

I think we have been answering the question almost every quarter, every year, not -- you are right, we have been carrying it. But keeping -- see, the investment in some company or the other without knowing what it is. See, we should always invest in companies, such investments where we are sure of the growth, we are sure of the security of our investment, the appreciation to the investment, return to the investment. These are the basic objectives of making any investment. Just because we have some surplus fund, trying to find -- put some investment is not proper. That is the -- you or the Board. From time to time, we keep reviewing it. What is the returns. How, where we can invest. We are looking for a proper opportunity for investment. So the -- I think the investment in some company and inorganic is again a gray area. See, the -- unless we know the sector, how it is going. Today, the situation is very, very depressing. Any industry you take, it is very depressing. Almost like very rarely you find the companies like Avanti where they have been able to maintain their performance levels and their -- the stakeholders value. All these things are really kept intact and in fact, it is growing under these testing times and critical period. So we do not want to take any chances on the valuable, you got money, putting in some investment and getting into the problems. So we want to do such investment only after doing the due diligence. And when -- unless it is absolutely we are confident that this is going to give us good return and secured investment and also appreciation, then only we do it. I think you'll have to bear with us for some more time. As and when the appropriate time comes, we'll definitely share with you our plans.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#63

Okay. Wouldn't it be -- hello?

C. Rao

executive
#64

Yes, yes, please.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#65

Yes. Like you have been keeping all the surplus cash in the equity and diluting the return on equity and capital employed. But wouldn't it be possible for a company like this size to actually in this pandemic get some smaller companies actually at a good valuation for acquiring those kind of companies?

C. Rao

executive
#66

Yes, the acquisition will take place only there is a proper -- the investment is properly utilized. Is it not? You cannot go on acquiring any company which is available. See now I can explain to you in a better way that see, whatever the surplus moneys are there, we put in various mutual funds or fixed deposits or public sector PSUs and banking funds. Like that we distribute and see that the average return is around 6% to 7%. That -- it was much higher. I'm talking about the off-late situation. It was much higher. We have got even 8% to 9%, 10% also we have got. So the -- so we are -- we'll have to go into such an investment where the long-term sustainability of the -- your industry should be there. Just selecting some industry, keeping the money is not proper. I think you will agree with me this. The money is there. We are safeguarding the money. It is investors -- stakeholders' money. We are keeping that in -- we are the custodians of that money.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#67

Yes, and I appreciate that fact, sir.

C. Rao

executive
#68

Pardon me?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#69

Yes, yes. I appreciate the fact that you are keeping -- safeguarding the investors' money...

C. Rao

executive
#70

Absolutely. Absolutely.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#71

Sir, I just want to add to this. It's not like we are not evaluating opportunities. We are continuously evaluating opportunities, but none of them seem to be sound where we think that, okay, this is what's going to get us a lot of return. So there no opportunities that we've seen in the past 2, 3 years, which we really thought that is going to give us a great return. And once we do, definitely, we're going to go forward and go for it, right? But we need to wait till the right thing comes up than putting a deadline and going after something like, okay, by December 31st we need to find something. Instead of that, we're looking at something that's really interesting which really gives us a good return and it really gives the company a boost.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#72

Okay. All right. Just one last question I have is regarding the latest data from U.S., like the other countries like Ecuador, Indonesia, Thailand, their exports to U.S. have increased significantly, but India's exports to U.S. in terms of shrimp have -- like marginally decreased. So what would be the reason do you think for this?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#73

The main reason is definitely the footfall of the workers into the factories. If you compare the countries that you said, Indonesia or Thailand or Vietnam, the number of cases in those countries are very low and also the factories where these -- where they're located, they are some factories, the number of cases are very low compared to what we're having in India. In India, it's already the second highest-affected country. And I think over time, with the number -- the population that we have we're going to become #1. So the number of people carrying the virus is also very high. So that's the main reason. We've seen there are a lot of times -- there are times that we had to pass on opportunities because we don't have enough manpower footfall to do production. We are a very manpower-intensive industry. But like I was saying in the previous questions, things are normalizing, the utilizations are increasing. And we expect that, again, India will retain its position as the most dominant exporter to the U.S.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#74

Okay. So the trend is reversing you mean, right? You can see it?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#75

I mean, yes, the trend is reversing. I expect in the next few quarters, we should be able to normalize if -- again, it depends also how -- what this pandemic has in store.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#76

So mainly the corona is the only reason for that, no other reason for that, right? The manpower shortage?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#77

The manpower shortage. And also for Ecuador, I think if you see Ecuador is exporting more to the U.S. because Ecuador has been having problems with the coronavirus contamination on shrimp packaging to China. So the Chinese government has banned couple of companies already to export to their country. So they are remodeling the production to go into America or other markets so that -- the effect where you're seeing temporary increase. But the product that they focus on are different from what we focus on. They do more commodity head lifts to China. They're a little bit reversing and repositioning the product to the U.S. But once, I think, we are able to normalize, we should be able to cover up again.

Operator

operator
#78

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Praveen Sahay from Edelweiss.

Praveen Sahay

analyst
#79

Thank you for a detailed briefing at the start of the call, sir. I have just 2 questions. One related to the -- as you had already discussed related to the government schemes, government focus on the sectors. So not on just a quarter or 2, for long term, what you are expecting with these initiations as we had already seen that the market has not grown, this year is really bad. So the way forward, how much of the growth as in a sector you are expecting as a shrimp sector for in India? Look let's say, 3 years or 5 years growth trend, what you are expecting?

C. Rao

executive
#80

Yes. The government's focus is now to increase exports, what they call it as Blue Revolution. They want to -- now it is around INR 46,000 crores -- INR 46,000 crores, INR 47,000 crores is the end product exports from India. They want to double this to reach INR 1 lakh crores by '24-'25 -- 2024-2025. So the -- with this objective, they have earmarked about INR 20,000 crores available to the farmers on various activities. So this will give a real boost to the -- basically the farmers to undertake the shrimp culture. So because they are subsidizing their investment cost perhaps we don't know the working capital for feed and all. The details are not yet known. But definitely, it is aimed at giving the required boost to the sector to the farmers, which never they did earlier, the government of India, they have done it. And they have realized that the export of shrimps is very highly potential export garner. So they are doing it. And if this is really successfully implemented, we see 2, 3 important developments that are going to happen in next 2 to 3 years. The one is -- the most important is the area of culture. See one of the area of culture, we have a long coastline which can be used for this shrimp culture. This is one thing. The second thing is the infrastructure funds that is needed by the farmers. We have small landholdings by the farmers. Maybe the 2 to 5 acres, 5 to 10 acres, you -- a significant portion of this farmers have only -- this is the range, 2 to -- 1 to 5 acres and 5 to 10 acres, this is the range. So if you -- they do not have sufficient funds to beat the infrastructure development costs and also the running costs, like power, like feed, these are the requirements that they need. So if the government -- and also post harvest, see, it is said that there is a lot of post-harvest losses, which may go up to 15% to 20% loss. So if they can cut down this, it is the farmer who gets benefited. The post-harvest loss will definitely benefit the farmer. If proper infrastructure is created for proper post-harvest case, where that will be a benefit to the farmer. Similarly, if you subsidize or if you give this support -- financial support for infrastructure development and also for this working capital needs, definitely, it will help them to go for this shrimp culture in a big way. There is no constraint of the area that is available as a coastline. That is absolutely -- we have this more unutilized coastal line which can be used for shrimp culture. The second thing is, it is going to provide a lot of employment to the youth. Definitely, these 2 factors will encourage and the more and more the youth undertake this shrimp culture and there will be prosperity. So these are the factors which really help in increasing the growth of this industry. So these are the...

Praveen Sahay

analyst
#81

So sir, do we expect the next 3 to 5 years would be a far superior growth as compared to last 5 years?

C. Rao

executive
#82

Definitely it should -- see, last 3 years is again, it has been very erratic. First, if you look at immediate past 1 year, it was not good. Earlier to that -- 3 years back, because '14-'15 was a very good year. See, that has not been -- see, there are several factors, but the basic -- the important thing is that the growth of this industry by -- sustainable growth comes to the farmers when he undertakes activity on a sustainable basis. More and more, the aquaculture area has increased, more production comes, then definitely, that will -- supply chain, everywhere, the production, hatcheries, the processing and export, every industry grows along with that. So the basic backbone of the industry is the farmer. So if you can really support him with what he requires to produce shrimps, I think automatically, the growth will come. I think that is going to happen in the next 3 to 4 years.

Praveen Sahay

analyst
#83

Right, sir. Sir, related to the -- your shrimp processing business...

Operator

operator
#84

Sorry to interrupt, sir. Could you please join back the queue if time permits?

Praveen Sahay

analyst
#85

Just had a few lines.

Operator

operator
#86

Please go ahead, sir.

Praveen Sahay

analyst
#87

So related to the shrimp processing, as your percentage of a U.S. contribution, as I can see on the sequential basis, when the Q1 versus last year or a Q4 last year hasn't reduced. Definitely, there is a reason for that. But what the percentage as in the U.S. contribution you are looking at for your shrimp processing business on a stable state?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#88

On a stable state as of today, I think it will vary from 75% to 80%. We do intend to reduce it and distribute it to other markets as well. But we are looking at what contracts we are getting from all different markets, and we're choosing the best contract at that time, right? If we could focus and reduce the U.S. market distribution to lower or higher, but then if you go lower, then as you pick another market like China or another market where I don't get that much value. So we are looking at where we're getting, which market is offering us the best contract and going after the contract rather than the market.

Operator

operator
#89

We have next question from Ayush Mittal from MAPL Value Investing Fund.

Ayush Mittal;MAPL Value Investing Fund

analyst
#90

Hello? Hello?

Operator

operator
#91

Yes. Please go ahead, sir. Please go ahead with your question.

Ayush Mittal;MAPL Value Investing Fund

analyst
#92

Yes. Sir, first of all, I'd like to congratulate the management for delivering good performance in these testing times. These are the leadership qualities that we look for. In reference to the discussion on the price of feed, what we have read in some reports is that the competitors have taken a price cut of further INR 3. Sir, can you share anything on that, if that is true or not? And are you facing competition because of that?

C. Rao

executive
#93

Yes, first, let me answer this question. We have reports that they have -- it's not a price cut. What they have done is they have announced some schemes. Something like, yes, they're increasing the feed -- the shrimp feed, they have announced some scheme. There is that cash back scheme and also more discount, more cash discount, like that, they said. I mean we have not exactly evaluated how much daily it contributes to. As you said, it may be about INR 2 to INR 3 per kg if they work out. But we feel that the strategy that they are doing, because checking the quality of the feed and all, it may not be proper. But anyway, we are just studying what they're really straightaway cutting the -- giving more discounts to the dealers or more gift or coupons or whatever it is to the farmers. It is not correct. They're giving the cash back and all these things, it doesn't appear to be proper. But anyway, that is their strategy. We will have to see how -- what is the impact of it because just they have announced very recently. We are going through the schemes that they have announced and how it is going to have an impact on various things, particularly in the raw materials and the maintaining the quality of the feed and performance of the feed. All these things have to be taken into account because the raw material prices are almost stable. There is no big reduction in the raw material prices as of now. We don't foresee also a big fall in the prices of the raw material. But with all that, these steps, we have reports. We are studying those reports and will examine how we should go, what is the actually real -- the impact of that.

Ayush Mittal;MAPL Value Investing Fund

analyst
#94

Okay. But as of now, our price is same...

C. Rao

executive
#95

But as of now, we have no impact of that on our sales.

Operator

operator
#96

We have next question from [ Trakar Nadani ], an individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#97

Do we have a plan -- considering enough cash on books, do we have a plan to reward investors with a buyback going ahead?

Unknown Executive

executive
#98

Buyback.

Unknown Executive

executive
#99

Buyback.

C. Rao

executive
#100

Buyback. No, there's no proposal, as of now the buyback -- no it is -- when -- we are looking into possibility of investments which will be on a sustainable growth basis and value appreciation and good returns, safe investments, we're looking for it. There is no proposal of any buyback as of now.

Operator

operator
#101

Last question for the day comes from [ Vishal Jaju ], an individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#102

Actually, most of the questions have been answered, but just sort of want your view on the meatless industry, which is growing in the other countries. Not our target share, but just wanted to get your views, how are you seeing this meatless industry hampering the -- our industry as well?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#103

So the meatless industry or alternative protein is a fast-growing industry. It does require a lot of R&D capability. And also, there are a lot of players who have been invested from a very long time, including like Impossible Foods or Beyond Meat or New Wave Foods. There are a lot of companies. They are developing seafood alternatives as well. But we really need -- it's a very early stage. We need to see what's going to be done in the long term and how this pans out. So right now, we do not have any R&D going into this segment. But our partners -- our union is doing some research and investments into this sector. So let's see how it goes. Right now, there's not much that we can really speak about but if...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#104

So is there any scope that this industry to be hampered in our target share for the coming 2 to 3 years or it's a very long history for -- in our target share sort of?

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#105

Yes. 2 to 3 years, it's too -- it's very, very, very -- I don't think 2 to 3 years anything is going to happen to shut a deal.

C. Rao

executive
#106

Yes, yes.

Alluri Nikhilesh

executive
#107

2 to 3 years is not going to happen. It is more expensive. We have to see over time. Everyone is looking at alternative proteins, alternative everything, right? So we need to see.

Operator

operator
#108

That would be the last question for the day. Now I hand over the floor to Mr. Sherwin Fernandes for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Sherwin Fernandes;KFin Technologies

analyst
#109

Thank you to the entire team of Avanti Feeds Limited for giving us the opportunity to host the call. And I'd also like to thank the investors and analysts for giving their time to attend this call. Thank you.

C. Rao

executive
#110

Thank you, Mr. Sherwin. Thank you. Pavitra.

Operator

operator
#111

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of KFin Technologies Private Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

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