Aviva plc (AV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Half Year 2023 results presentation. So this actually will be our very last presentation in this auditorium as we move into our new headquarters at 80 Fenchurch Street in November. So St. Helen's, as you will all know, has a very rich history. It was one of the first skyscrapers in the city of London, and it's been our home for 50 years. So we will miss it very much. I'm sure you will, too. So I'll start today with an update on our Half Year performance and the progress that we're making. And then Charlotte will go through our results in more detail, and we'll finish with questions. So before we do that, I want to set the theme with a broader view of what I think these results demonstrate that Aviva has momentum, and our performance and prospects make for a compelling business investment case. When I became CEO, I promised you that we would transform the performance of Aviva. And that's exactly what we have done. Aviva is a very, very different business now to the one that I inherited. And today, we have real focus of our portfolio and clarity of our strategy and delivery. We've invested in our people, products, systems and customer experience, and we will continue to do so. And what today's numbers tell you is that we've been investing in the right places, and these investments are generating real momentum. Now of course, all of these results would not be possible without my Aviva colleagues and their commitment to deliver for our customers each and every single day. From Galway to Markham, from Perth to Sheffield, Aviva people work tirelessly to help solve our customers' financial puzzles. So a very, very big thank you to the whole Aviva team. And whilst we are proud of our progress so far, there is still much more to go after. So I'm hugely excited about the path in front of us. And it genuinely feels like we're only just getting started. So let's get into the detail. So as you can see, we've had another strong half year, delivering profitable growth despite a challenging economic backdrop. Our numbers demonstrate once again that the diversified business model that we have built is resilient and that we have the right strategy for Aviva and for our investors. Aviva is growing both top and bottom line. In general, insurance premiums are up 12%, with a combined operating ratio of 94.8%. And we've seen robust net flows of GBP 4.3 billion in our wealth business. In fact, every part of our business is delivering strong growth. All 3 of our U.K -- I'll say about GI businesses in Canada, the U.K. and Ireland, delivered double-digit growth, strong rate increases and new business. Protection & Health premiums were up 23%. Workplace net flows grew 25%, with 211 new schemes won in the first half. And retirement sales were up with 22% growth in individual annuities and GBP 2.4 billion of BPA volumes. And for the Annuity business, Aviva Investors continues to play an important role, originating GBP 0.5 billion of real assets in the first half. We remain laser-focused on efficiency with half year costs flat year-on-year despite the challenge of absorbing 7% impact from inflation and the continuing investments that we're making into growing our business. This combination of growth and cost discipline is translating into an increasing bottom line, with own funds generation and operating profit both up. And we have real financial strength. Our Solvency II cover ratio is robust at 202%. And we've delivered over GBP 800 million of cash remittances in the first half, with more to come in the second. So Aviva is consistently delivering on its promises quarter after quarter. And that means that we're set to exceed the group targets that I laid out for you 18 months ago. We are on track to exceed our cash remittances and own funds generation targets. And we will deliver our GBP 750 million cost reduction target by the end of this year, which is a full year earlier than planned. But we're not just focused on today. We've got one eye very firmly on Aviva's future. We're investing GBP 1 billion in our business, and we're now seeing very positive results. We're investing for growth. We've built Aviva Zero, the carbon-conscious digital-led motor proposition that has sold more than 250,000 policies since its launch less than 18 months ago. We're investing in our customer data capabilities, which has unlocked more customers in terms of marketing permissions. This means we can now talk to 8 million customers and connect meaningfully with them to serve more of their needs. We will have invested in efficiency and have already delivered GBP 75 million in cost savings in Aviva Investors. And we have invested in bolt-on M&A to accelerate our strategic delivery. We bought Succession Wealth, and we're seeing positive flows on to Aviva's platform. We acquired the Barclays home insurance back book, allowing us to further enhance our market-leading position in U.K. home insurance. And all of this supports the delivery of attractive outcomes for our shareholders. In June, we completed the promised GBP 300 million share buyback, and today, we're announcing an interim dividend of 11.1p per share, an increase of 8%. As we've said before, we expect the cash cost of our dividend to grow by mid -- low to mid-single digits, I got to get that one right, reflecting our confidence in the strength of the business and the underlying capital and cash generation capacity. So as you can see here, we have a diversified and complementary portfolio, providing Aviva with resilience and opportunities. Our general insurance protection and health and wealth businesses drive customer acquisition, growth and higher returns. Retirement and heritage deliver cash generation, underpinning current and future dividends. And in Aviva Investors, we have a [ core ] enabler of the growth in our wealth and retirement business and a powerhouse for Aviva's leading position on sustainability. And Mark and the team with their real assets expertise are perfectly placed to help us invest GBP 25 billion over the next 10 years as a result of the Solvency II reforms. So our business today is already more than 50% capital light. And we are investing to accelerate growth across the capital-light businesses. So how will we do this? Our ambition is to grow our capital-light businesses faster than our competitors and meaningfully change the mix of our earnings over time. In the U.K. and Ireland general insurance, Adam and the team have grown premiums by 13%, supported by SME and mid-market and commercial lines and new propositions in personal lines. In Canada, Jason and the team have delivered 12% growth through commercial lines and our RBC partnership, which continues to go from strength to strength with new business up 40%. In wealth, Doug and the team continue to build on our leading position in workplace, recently achieving GBP 100 billion of assets under management, which is an excellent result. Wealth is one of our biggest growth areas in the U.K. and we are actively investing to capitalize on this opportunity. You can hear a lot more about that in our in-focus session with Doug in October. Across Protection & Health, we continue to deliver growth. In Health, we're up 58%, and we're providing support to customers through exciting new tailored health solutions, such as Expert Select. And a big part of our growth story is within our customer franchise. We have the largest customer franchise across U.K. insurers. It's a sometimes overlooked point that we have similar scale to the U.K.'s leading banks. And we're passionate about delivering great outcomes for our customers. A few examples of this. Our direct and adviser platforms currently pay 4.5% on cash balances, more than many of our competitors, and we do not retain any interest on cash paid, passing all of the benefit back to our customers. We're supporting customers through difficult times. We paid a total of GBP 128 million as part of the COVID Health pledge. We're investing to make it easier for customers to engage with our digital-led proposition. And now we have 6 million customers on MyAviva. It works for them, it's great for us, because MyAviva users are twice as likely to buy another policy from us. But it is our consistently high standards of service and delivery that generates loyalty. It means our customers want more of what we do for them. Today, 4.4 million customers have 2 or more policies with us. In the U.K., that means we have a further 11 million customers with a single policy. That's a huge opportunity sitting there in our existing customer base. We know these customers and they know us, and we don't have to go out and find them. And our profits are growing. A key driver of this is our ability to operate efficiently. As you've heard, we've delivered a flat cost base in the first half. We're particularly proud of this given the unusually challenging inflationary environment. This has not been easy. We've simplified our IT landscape and our insurance product set. We've streamlined our customer journeys. We've reduced our property footprint and invested in technology, all of which has delivered substantial efficiencies. This means we're already running the business better, and our focus from here is on top quartile efficiency in our business lines. So all of this tells you that Aviva is now a consistently high-performing business with a culture of delivery. Three years ago, we made a conscious decision to refocus our portfolio on the U.K., Ireland and Canada. We did this for the simple reason that these are the markets where we have the right to win, where we have leading positions and structural growth opportunities, scale and unrivaled customer franchises. So you've heard me say this before, but I really mean it, we are not stopping here. We will continue to be resolutely focused on the execution of our 4 strategic priorities because there is still much more to go after. So that's the high-level view of our progress and delivery in the first half. I'm now going to hand over to Charlotte, who will take you through our performance in more detail.

Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone. It's lovely to be here today for another set of great results. We continue to see excellent growth momentum across the group. So let's go through the highlights. Operating profit, which we report on an IFRS 17 basis for the first time, was up 8% to GBP 715 million, giving an operating EPS of 19.9p. Solvency II OFG was up 26% to GBP 648 million as we made further progress towards our target of GBP 1.5 billion per annum by 2024, which we expect to exceed. We generated GBP 580 million of operating capital, up 9%. This is the key driver of cash for the group. In General Insurance, the undiscounted group COR of 94.8% is a great result, particularly against the challenging background of the inflationary environment and with claims frequency returning to more normal levels. The discounted COR was down 1.5 points to 91.3%. Costs remained flat as we absorbed significant inflationary headwinds, a fantastic result as we continue to make progress with our cost efficiency program. And our capital position remains robust at 202%. And we are pleased to announce an interim dividend up 8% at 11.1p. So I'll go through a few observations on how we look at business unit performance now that we're reporting under IFRS 17, and then step through each of the businesses in more detail. As you will recall from our transition material, our diversified business model means we apply all 3 IFRS 17 measurement models and some of our businesses are outside of its scope. With that in mind, let me unpack operating performance for you. On the left-hand side of this slide, you can see the components of our total operating -- our total business unit operating profit of GBP 957 million and group operating profit of GBP 715 million. Our general insurance businesses contributed over 48% of the total business unit operating profit, up 41% in the U.K. and Ireland, and up 20% in Canada. Our other capital-light businesses, so health, protection, wealth, and Aviva Investors contributed an additional 12% of business unit operating profit. Now as we explained in our transition reporting, operating profit under IFRS 17 is expected to be lower than it was under the previous accounting standard. This primarily relates to annuities and protection products for which IFRS 17 introduced the concept of the contractual service margin, or CSM. This spreads profits over the lifetime of a policy rather than recognizing new business profit upfront. Therefore, for those businesses where there is a CSM, it's important to see how the CSM has changed over the period in assessing performance. So for example, how much has been added to the CSM for new business, assumption changes, as well as how much of this future stock of profit has been released. So in the middle of this slide, you can see that a net GBP 204 million has been added to the CSM for these operating changes. On the right-hand side of the slide, these are brought together to show a total operating value added of GBP 640 million, so up 32% for our IWR business. This metric is better in assessing operating performance for our Annuities and Protection business as it shows these key elements of value as they arise rather than when they unwind. Now on this slide, I have deliberately not focused on an overall group operating value added. And this is because we have made no adjustments for the future value of the businesses where there is no CSM, as others in the market might have done. Now let me unpack the business units in a little more detail, and I'll start with general insurance in the U.K. and Ireland, where premiums grew by 13% to GBP 3.2 billion. This included double-digit growth in each of commercial lines, personal lines and in Ireland. U.K. Personal Lines grew 16% with around 60% from rating actions and 40% from volumes, reflecting new propositions such as Aviva Zero and Quotemehappy Essentials. In Commercial Lines, about 2/3 of the 11% premium growth was from rate actions. And the undiscounted COR is a very strong 96.3%. It included increased reinsurance costs and claims frequency trends returning to more normal levels, partly offset by benign weather and neutral prior year development. Importantly, the underlying current year claims ratio, excluding weather, improved in the first half of this year when compared to the second half of last year. This reflects the strong rating actions of the past year earning through. High yields led to a significantly improved investment result supporting a 41% increase in operating profit to GBP 230 million. Now moving to Canada, where we had an excellent 6 months as the business continues to grow both top line and profit. Premiums grew by 12% in constant currency. Our new business in large corporate and mid-market contributed to about 60% of Commercial Lines growth with the remainder due to rate actions. Personal Lines grew by 8%, about 3/4 was from rating actions with the rest from new business, particularly in the direct and RBC channels. COR was up by 1 point, but still very strong at 92.8%, with trends around frequency, claims inflation and reinsurance costs similar to the U.K. A particular feature in Canada has been heightened car theft. And despite the Canadian wildfires in Q2, weather was better than the long-term averages and we experienced positive PYD. Canada has also seen an improvement in the first half underlying current year claims ratio compared with the second half of last year. Operating profit was up 19%, again reflecting improved investment returns. Turning to Wealth next. As you know, it's a challenging environment for asset gatherers, but our Wealth business continues to attract strong flows. Net flows remained resilient at 6% of opening AUM. Within that, workplace net flows of GBP 3.4 billion were up 25% as we saw new scheme wins and the benefits of wage inflation on contributions. Net flows and platform were more challenged as the market volatility continues to impact investment activity. We expect this to continue in the short term, but our highly regarded proposition is well placed for when the market improves. Operating profit was lower at GBP 46 million. Revenue grew over the period but was more than offset by the impact of investments we're making into the business to capture the significant growth opportunity in the U.K. wealth market. This includes investments into lead generation, our customer and digital proposition in direct wealth, the integration of our advice businesses, and enhancing our Master Trust proposition in workplace. As you've heard from Amanda, there will be more on this at our in-focus session in October. Protection & Health continues to grow from strength to strength as we grew sales and profitability. Health sales were up a fantastic 58% as demand for private health cover continues to grow. Operating profit was up 23% in Health due to portfolio growth. Protection sales were up 8%, driven by individual protection, a particularly good result given contractions in the mortgage market. Operating value-added, the most relevant performance measure for protection, was up 5%, mainly due to higher new business. In Retirement, which comprises BPA, individual annuities and equity release, we saw growth in both the bulk and individual annuities of 30% and 22%, respectively. BPA volumes were GBP 2.4 billion by the end of the first half and the year-to-date volumes are around GBP 3.4 billion now. New business margin was consistent year-on-year for BPA, but down slightly for annuities overall. Volumes included some lower-margin pipeline business delayed from 2022. Equity release sales were down, as you'd expect, in the higher interest rate environment. Operating profit was up 8% to GBP 287 million, largely reflecting an increase in expected investment returns on surplus assets following interest rate rises. The change in operating CSM increased materially by GBP 194 million due to favorable assumption changes and longevity experience variances. And the release from the stock of future profits into operating profit was in line with the prior year. Together, these increased operating value added by 68% to GBP 535 million. As the CSM represents the stock value for the Annuities and Protection business and the heritage books, I'll spend a few moments explaining its development over the period. Overall, operating growth in the CSM was GBP 205 million despite the runoff headwinds from the heritage book. The drivers of this growth were as follows: new business, which added GBP 183 million; interest accretion, which added GBP 111 million this being the result of discounting within the CSM unwinding over the period; positive experience variance added GBP 133 million, mainly from longevity; and an assumption change relating to BPA schemes added GBP 110 million. GBP 332 million was then released from the CSM to profit, which on an annualized basis the CSM release was 9.5%, which is broadly consistent with 2022. Importantly, the build in CSM solely from new business and interest accretion was about the same as the amount released. And if we exclude heritage, the build exceeded the release. Overall, the CSM grew 3% to GBP 6.6 billion over the first half and we expect the CSM will continue to grow over time. That means we are generating long-term value by growing the future stock. Now the last thing I'd like to comment on this slide is the risk adjustment, also introduced by IFRS 17 and applicable across all insurance products. You may recall the risk adjustment replaces the margins held as part of reserving under the previous accounting. The risk adjustment is released over time, assuming experience is in line with expectations. And over the half year, it reduced by 5% to GBP 1.3 billion. Therefore, the overall stock of future profit, which includes both the CSM and the risk adjustment, grew to GBP 7.9 billion. Now let's look at how those operating results of the businesses drive the group's Solvency II own funds generation. The drivers of OFG are broadly consistent with those for operating value added for the businesses with the CSM and operating profit for the rest. Solvency II OFG was up 26% to GBP 648 million as we made strong progress towards our target, which we expect to exceed. In line with operating value-added, IWR's OFG was up 26% due to the impact of high yields on expected investment return and a positive assumption change in retirement. In General Insurance, OFG was also up 6% from higher expected investment returns and resilient underwriting results. Group center and debt costs reduced by 15% as a result of our ongoing efficiency program and debt reduction. Turning now to our asset portfolio, which remains very high quality and continues to perform well. About half of the portfolio is in government bonds and corporate bonds, and we sold more than GBP 300 million of upgrades on the portfolio in the first half and just GBP 100 million of downgrades, with nothing downgraded below investment grade. Our commercial mortgage portfolio of GBP 5.3 billion and equity release portfolio of GBP 9.5 billion have low average LTVs of 53% and 26%, respectively. And you'll find further details on the portfolio in the appendix to the slides. On to our capital position next, which remains extremely robust at 202%. We generated 6 points of operating capital over the half year and nonoperating impacts reduced the ratio by a single point. Also in the first half, we have completed the GBP 300 million share buyback. We've paid GBP 595 million of dividends and we've reduced debt by GBP 259 million. These actions reduced the cover ratio by a combined 15 points. Our pro forma leverage ratio is 30%, and center liquidity at the end of July is GBP 1.6 billion. So before I finish, a few comments on outlook for 2023. Our dividend guidance for 2023 is for a cash cost of around GBP 915 million or 33.4p per share. Regarding trading outlook for the second half, we anticipate further growth. We see continued demand for Protection and Health, strong growth opportunities in workplace and continued momentum in bulks as more schemes look to derisk. In General Insurance, we expect the underlying COR to benefit from the earn-through of rating actions already taken and to come in the second half. And we wouldn't necessarily expect the favorable weather and PYD experience of the first half to repeat. All of this guidance means that -- sorry, all of this means that the guidance we gave last month that we expect 5% to 7% growth in full year operating profit from the GBP 1.35 billion last year remains unchanged. So in summary, it's been another excellent half for Aviva. We've continued our positive momentum on delivery, and we are growing. Importantly, we're growing across the group, and we're growing profitably. And we expect this to continue. And with that, I'll hand back to Amanda.

Thank you, Charlotte. So before we turn to Q&A, let's just take a moment to wrap up. Aviva today is a company with momentum, delivering growth and, over time, a more capital-light business mix. Delivering and exceeding on our promises and our targets. Delivering for our customers. Delivering on profitability with disciplined cost control. And finally and most importantly, delivering for our shareholders, with a growing dividend and a regular and sustainable return of excess capital. We've had an excellent first half. Aviva's performance and prospects have been transformed from just a few years ago, as I hope I've made very clear. We've identified areas of future growth and development, and that is what we will continue to do. We have a unique platform. We have excellent people. And we have the ambition to lead in every market that we operate in. So that's the goal. And today's number should give you confidence that we will meet that ambition by continuing to grow, to innovate and to deliver for our customers, people and shareholders in every way. It's actually a very exciting time at Aviva. So thank you for listening. I'm sure there are lots of questions. So we're now going to move into Q&A, Charlotte.

Okay. So we're aware that obviously, there's another presentation that some of you will need to get away too. So we want to make sure that everybody gets a chance to ask a question that wants to. So in the first instance, if you could try to limit to 2 questions. We will then come around again if we've got time at the end and take further questions. So should we start with Andy?

Andy Sinclair from Bank of America. First was just on P&C. Great performance in the U.K. underlying. But I just wanted to dig a little bit more into Canada. If I strip out weather discounting and PYD, it looks like the underlying loss ratio was maybe a little bit more deterioration than I expected. You mentioned frequency normalizing, theft. Just wonder if you can dig into that a little bit more and tell us what's going on there? And was there just any increased prudence or anything like that being booked? That's the first question. And second was just on Health actually. We heard from one of your competitors, I'm sure you know very well, Amanda, about the challenges, the NHS, impacting health profitability in the U.K. But your operating profit seems to have held up really well. Just wondered what you're seeing in the health portfolio, what you're getting on pricing. Just if you can give some color there.

Yes. Of course, Charlotte, do you want to pick up the first question, I'll pick up the second question?

I think we have, despite the wildfires in Canada, which were quite concentrated in the Quebec region where we have less exposure, I think we have seen a positive versus the long-term trends for weather. So we have seen that, and we have seen some positive development. If I look at the way, and if we look at the way the rate is earning through, though, if I take the second half of '22, and I compare it to the first half, if I take just the current year loss ratio just on claims, we see quite a significant improvement. So actually, that's really demonstrating that rating is beginning to get traction and come through. So yes, we're flattered by some of those PYD and weather. But when I look at how that rate is driving through, it is giving benefits. Now again, in Canada, some specifics about motor theft which you've heard some of the competitors talk about as well, so that's had a little bit of impact. But I think, again, we've further progressed through that now.

So on Health, clearly, the challenges of the NHS are driving lots of new customers to us in Health, over 170,000 actually over the last 12 months. We are not seeing the deterioration on profitability. As you can see, the profitability is actually up 23%, I think, off last year. And we've had new business sales of 58%. So we are seeing that from the SME claims experience is running slightly hotter than we were expecting, but consumer experience has been in line with expectations and large corporate experience has actually been favorable. So overall, we're not concerned about the underlying performance. And I think that we're very excited actually about the opportunities to continue to grow there. If we think about the digital health opportunities and connected well-being, then we see our conversations with large corporates really starting to build on those opportunities. So there is continued momentum for the business.

Should go to Farooq next.

Farooq Hanif from JPMorgan. You mentioned, Charlotte, the underlying loss ratio in 2H. And I think when I worked it out this morning, there's kind of more than a 2-point improvement 2H from 1H. Now clearly, there will be some seasonality and other effects in that. But what would you say when you look at pricing versus inflation and other trends and frequency, what would you say is kind of an ideal level of improvement that you'd like to see in that underlying loss ratio over the next few years? That's question one, without giving guidance. And then question 2 is on the reserve releases. So can you talk through some of the items that led to that high PYD? And what we should expect second half or going forward qualitatively?

So I think in terms of the underlying losses, as I say, if I look in Canada, their ability to put that rate through, as I just answered to Andy, is quite strong. So we've seen a couple of points at least coming through over that period, and in the U.K., close to 1 point or so. So if I look out through the rest of this year, if that -- we're continuing to price ahead of inflation in all our markets. So again, I would expect that to give us some benefit going through into the second half in a sort of similar order of magnitude. So overall, maybe 1 point. But obviously, you've got to spread that over a full year rather than half year. So like that. I mean more broadly, our overall ambition to be sub-94% for the group remains. But for '23, I think some of that normalization of PYD and probably weather will counterbalance the underlying inflation -- sorry, the underlying improvements. In terms of PYD, I mean, it's always -- it's a constant process. We're always looking at what's developing and moving. It's nothing specific. But again, some of the larger losses over a period of time, actually as they develop, particularly on the more complex cases, sometimes give us some benefits. And that's what we've seen this half.

We should go to Abid, and Larissa will come to you afterwards as well.

Two questions. First, just coming back to the Health business. It seems like there's a great opportunity to grow across -- we're seeing growth across this industry and for you as well. Can you talk to your plans specifically of capturing this growth? So for example, have you considered partnering with hospitals, or any other color in terms of your plans? You mentioned digital, but any more color would be helpful in terms of growth. And then the second question is on BPA. What's your capacity in terms of rising volumes in any single year?

So on health, with the opportunity to grow. So I think it's in a number of areas really. Obviously, we have the [ core ] insurance product where there's opportunities to grow both in the direct channel, which we've seen -- we've definitely seen the benefit of that, but also for SMEs. And I think more SMEs are thinking about how they protect their colleagues and their workers to make sure that they're fit and healthy. And I think thinking more widely also around mental health and access to GP services, and we've definitely seen that coming through in the requirements from the large corporates. So a broad area. But there is some really exciting innovation going on in this space as well. So we're looking at a connected well-being opportunity. So bringing together all of the proposition that we have in one place so that if somebody -- if we have schemes that are protection schemes, and health schemes that actually those colleagues who work for the businesses for the same employer can access the products and it looks like it's one Aviva product. So we're doing some really cool stuff on that, and we were hearing about that at the Board sessions earlier this week. But there are also some really good innovations on things that -- there's a proposition called HealthKey where effectively employers can allocate all of their colleagues a set amount of money that they can spend on their health during a year. And then the colleagues can decide, do they want to have a scan. So we partnered with Scan.com to do that, or whether they want to take some mental health or they want to take some nutritional advice. So I think overall, it's a massively exciting opportunity for us. We have 13% market share, so plenty of opportunity to grow. So we will do that through a range of partnerships, through organic growth. And so you can expect to see lots of more announcements on that as we go forward. On BPA capacity, I know there was a lot spoken about this every time that we get together, we've laid out the ambition of GBP 15 billion to GBP 20 billion of BPA over 3 years. I think Doug did that and Mark spoke about that at the session that they did last year. That is unchanged. We have [ risen ] GBP 3.4 billion to August 11. The pipeline is very strong, as you would expect, as schemes are feeling more confident to buy in or buy out. So we're in a good place. But we're also in a very luxurious position of having opportunities to allocate capital across a number of areas. So we're not a one-trick pony. We're not just going to be about BPA. BPA is very important to us, yes. It's a very big cash contributor, as you saw that in the numbers that Charlotte has presented, and it is a contributor to the dividend over the medium to long term. But we also have opportunities, and we've seen it here in the Wealth business where there is a significant medium- to long-term opportunity, and what we have to do is balance the investment for today and the investment for the future profit and the future of Aviva. And we know as this very much a customer franchise strategy. So we're pretty excited, plenty of opportunities. I mean, it digs in a great position that he can sort of prioritize and allocate this, but I think we feel very confident about that.

Larissa, we're going to go to you next.

Just very quickly, you mentioned 13% market share in health. Who are the main competitors that you come up against in that market?

Well, the other 2 major competitors, Bupa and AXA. We'll have significantly more market share, so plenty for us to go at.

Larissa Van Deventer from Barclays. My 2, first on annuities, but I'd like to focus on retail. You mentioned that the margins were down. The question is why and what would need to change that? And then the other one is on the CSM. So if we take the interest accreted plus the new business, it's actually less than the transfer was to earnings. If I understood correctly in your slide, you said that for new business, the ratio is positive. So the question then is, on the heritage book, how long does that have to run off before it stops impacting the CSM transfer ratio negatively?

So let me start with the ASM -- the CSM, I might have to come back and clarify your first question in a second, but just on the CSM. So if I take the new business growth to it, which was GBP 183 million, and the interest accretion, it's GBP 111 million, that's very close to the amount of the CSM runoff, which was GBP 322 million. If I take the heritage out of that, obviously, it's increased. We would expect the heritage book will -- has quite a long time to run. We expect -- sort of we've seen a slightly high elevated level of reduced profit this year, but the runoff is around 10% as we go through. So there will be a time where the heritage drops away, but it is a very long time, and it's a very slow process. And so I think that's an important point. The other thing is the CSM will and constantly is impacted by the assumptions, changes and experience release. And so if you think about the experience release impacts this time, it's partly because of excess deaths. So the longevity experience that we're getting is running ahead of the assumptions that are still embedded in the reserves. So there is some real value generated by that experience variance. And then we've made one particular assumption change this time, which is also added. But if you think of our guidance of GBP 200 million of sort of management actions, I mean, that is real value. The sort of working through and optimizing our balance sheet is part of what we do, and it is all generating that value that comes through. So that's how we look at it. When you say retail margin, are you talking about annuities, or -- so just in the individual annuities, I said that if you take the overall margins, VNB for -- BPA was consistent, but overall it's come down, which is to do with the individual annuities. Now there was a little bit of a backlog of annuity pipeline from last year, which just came through at lower rates. So it's a relatively sort of specific situation for this, and we would expect strong margins going forward.

Okay. We'll go to Andrew next.

Andrew Crean, Autonomous. Could you talk a bit about consumer duty, both is it having an effect on any of your open businesses currently? And particularly when consumer duty comes through on heritage books this time next year, is there -- are there issues on pricing there? And then secondly, your capital-light businesses, P&C and the Health and Protection 60% of the total currently. Do you have a target for where you'd like those to get to? And do you think you can do that organically? Or do you think there is room for acquisitions maybe in the P&C space?

So on consumer duty, clearly, a huge amount of work has gone into meeting the end of July at deadline from the teams both on the general insurance and the life side of the business. But we started from a very good place on that, given that, if you like, customer is already very well embedded in our purpose and our strategy and the way that we work. So we haven't had to make any significant adjustment as a consequence of that. But we -- you would expect us to be continually reviewing our products, and that is obviously what we do. And even if you think about the example I gave you around the cash balances on the platform, many of our competitors are taking a share of that cash balance. But our argument on that is that we've passed all that benefit back to our customers because we wouldn't take a share of any other benefit they had on assets. So we should pass that back. We've -- the ethos in the business is to look after our customers. We're the biggest customer franchise in the U.K., we have to make sure that works for us. In General Insurance, the business obviously was very well prepared with the various things that happened last year, whether that's -- is it PROD 4 and pricing practices? So the business had really already embedded a lot of that into their working. So we're in good shape. We review policies regularly. We review the standards. We've done lots of work on customer communications specifically, tiering our customer communications in terms of clear, understandable and the customers really know what they're buying. That puts us in a really good position for the second bit of your consumer duty question, which is obviously the year we now have to look at the back book. But Doug and the team will be always looking at the back book, and we've always done product governance reviews to make sure that those products are fit for purpose and providing value to customers. So we see that very much as business as usual. In respect of the capital-light businesses and the target for where we would like to get to, we don't have a target. But I think the point of time to illustrate where we are today is just that balance and effectively looking at the opportunities that exist to grow customers with all the future opportunities there are in wealth, and particularly workplace where clearly we already have over 4 million customers in the workplace proposition, building on that and the team continuing to work on that as DC becomes the norm. I mean as of today, you've got sort of 3 lots of customers, I guess, on pensions, those with full time of salary pension, not many of those anymore, those were the combination of DC and final salary, and then all the generation coming through who will only have DC. And so to be well positioned in that really important market means that there's a huge growth opportunity. So that's how we're really looking at it from a customer franchise perspective. But it's how we think about it when we're allocating capital.

Should we come to Dom next?

Dom O'Mahony, BNP Paribas Exane. So 2 questions, if that's all right. So one is just wondering if you could say anything about the competitive environment in workplace. Some of your competitors have talked about ramping up their proposition and some real ambitions for growth there. What are you seeing on the ground? And then a little bit of a technical question. So in the OCG, I think the SCR was up GBP 68 million, in the past it's sometimes been up or down. I'm just wondering whether you see that as a run rate positive growth in SCR as you grow the business or whether actually you expect that to be flat or indeed to decline as the capital-intensive lines shift into capital light. So any direction would be very helpful there.

So in respect of the competitive environment in workplace, where you tend to see really huge competition is around the jumbo deals. It's actually not dissimilar to BPA in that respect in that everybody fights really hard for those jumbo deals. And we recently saw a case where we literally would not wanted to have competed at the margin that the case was when it was just not possible for us to do that. So where we are very successful is in the smaller to midsize schemes where, clearly, we are -- we have made some really strong progress. Now on saying that, clearly, we -- if there's a way to write the profitable jumbo deals, then [ Ever ] and the team will definitely look to do that. But in terms of the competitive environment, and can competitors build what we have built quickly? I would say no. We have been building this proposition since sort of 2015. We have got a fantastic platform, which we've worked really hard to get into very good shape. We have an excellent reputation with our intermediaries built up through experience over a number of years of delivering for them. We have the MyWorkplace app, which we're constantly investing in to continue the delivery. You saw some of that come through in the numbers this morning. The Master Trust proposition that we're working on gives us an exciting opportunity, particularly as you saw with the announcements from the government around trying to consolidate some of these smaller schemes, and so therefore, having a strong Master Trust proposition is really important. And then finally, I think reputationally, Aviva, when you're a big player and you've got a strong customer reputation and a strong brand reputation, it's quite hard to compete and to gain that, particularly if you do not have a name in that market and you do not have experience. Trustees and employers want to go with businesses that have experience because it's such an important proposition for their employees. But we're certainly not complacent. That absolutely not. We have to fight in this market, and we will fight in this market. But we believe -- and GBP 100 billion is a bit -- that is a very, very big number to get to. I think that's a real achievement for us -- well, for Doug and the team.

So the GBP 68 million, and you can see on the chart in terms of SCR increase, I mean, that is a function of the new business strain, which is a bit higher because the volumes -- we talk about the volumes being higher year-on-year, so that's driving it. There's a little bit that, at the half year point, we've got some asset mix difference that -- compared to where we look to achieve. That's been closed out since the half year. So that effect is negated. But yes, it's new business strain. Ultimately, though, our percentage of new business strain is unchanged. So it is driven by the volume. So you'll see it up and down depending on the volume that comes through.

Should we go to next Riya next?

Riya Shah, Deutsche Bank. Two questions from me. So first, around controllable costs. It's great to see that you achieved your target this year. How are you thinking about controllable costs going forward and also your target for achieving top quarter efficiency across all units of the business? Where are you thinking this could go over the next few years? And then second, around the multi-policy, single policy opportunity that you spoke about, Amanda. Could you just provide some color on that opportunity for those 11 million customers who only have the single policies, where -- could you -- where will this come from mostly across all the business units?

So look, I think we're delighted to be in a position that we're going to be retiring the GBP 750 million cost target at the end of this year. And ultimately, as we take this forward, it is more around the ratios that are indicators of top quartile performance. And actually, when you look across our business, measuring top quartile performance does vary as the competitors vary, because it's a relative measure, but if I look at the general insurance business, both here and in Canada, we're really already in the pack on top quartile levels. We've got more to do in some of the life businesses and Aviva Investors. So we will set out a clearer pathway in the full year results when we come back. But we've been -- we can demonstrate the GBP 750 million done, but that's the sort of way we're thinking about it. And I think it's important, you're in a growing business, you constantly are looking at the size of the business growth. Therefore, it's more of sensible to have more of a ratio-driven measure than an absolute pound note. So that's where we're moving.

So on the customer, just to give perhaps a little bit more color on that. So 4.4 million customers with 2 or more products today. And I think some of the key things that we've done over the last 3 years are important here. So we have 8 million marketable customers now. That is up 60% since 2020. So we've been working really hard around marketing permissions and so that we have the right to be able to talk to our customers. And then if you look at the number of MyAviva users, that is 6 million, and that is up 33% since 2020. So behind the scenes, what we've actually been doing is preparing the foundations to create this opportunity. We've deliberately not been talking about it because for fear of being accused of sort of jam tomorrow type promises, which we do not want to be at all. Behind the scenes there's a lot that goes into getting these foundations absolutely right. So of the new business sales so far this year, 40% of our new business sales have been to existing Aviva customers. That is really significant. And that is without us really trying too hard. That is about slightly more sophistication in the terms of the way that we are presenting products to customers using the digital propositions. So there's quite a few things going on here, but we haven't really ramped up the activity here because we've been building the foundations to get those foundations right. We need to get the app in the place where it is sort of user-friendly to be able to do this. But there's quite a lot of opportunity here. So you know that we know that retention levels are much better if a customer has more than 2 policies. We know that about 4 points higher in general insurance, for example. We know that engagement is 9 points better if a customer has more than 2 policies. So all of the data is very, very positive for all the product proposition that we have. And we're actually making it work already really in stealth. We now need to gear that app. And so we're building the foundations to be able to do that. It's actually a pretty exciting stuff.

Should come down to Nasib.

Nasib Ahmed from UBS. The first question on the M&A philosophy. You guys talk about capital-light. Is that where the focus is going to be? And also, it's still bolt-on? Would you look at larger deals? Or would you look at some disposals as well to extract capital, let's say, from the Heritage Group quicker? And with that, can you just comment on the Lloyd's market entry? So I can understand the rational for it, if you can give us a few comments on that. And then secondly, on the Solvency II reform, just the risk margin one in particular. What solvency percentage impact are you expecting? And one of your competitors are saying that the new business strain is going to fall? Do you think that's going to be priced away in the market? Or is that going to be sustainable?

On M&A, I mean, obviously, you'd expect us to screen -- and sorry, Andrew, I didn't answer that bit of your question, so I will do that now. You would expect us to screen all of the M&A opportunities that are out there. But I think we've always said that our focus is really on about transforming the performance of Aviva organically. And you've seen that, I think, demonstrated in the results this morning. Now on saying that, if we feel that there is a bolt-on M&A opportunity, which will either add to our strategic portfolio, or to -- for synergistic reasons, then clearly, we would also look at that. So I think that sort of takes you more into that capital-light area. As far as Lloyds is concerned, clearly, we are always looking at the distribution opportunities. If there is a way that we can access the same type of customers that we write today via a different distribution route, then we would look at that. So I think that is something that we -- when we look at our capital allocation framework, we've always said high bar on investment in the business and M&A, but you'll see -- hopefully see that where we have invested and where -- if that's making a difference or return -- if not, return to shareholders. And that's still how -- that's very much still how we think about it. On Solvency II reforms, I think you were asking about the benefit of the risk margin. So obviously, these things are sort of moving around. And so we would do -- if you use a 65% reduction in life risk margin and a 30% reduction in the GI risk margin, that's the current sort of area that's targeted, then we'd expect that to translate into about a mid-single-digit benefit to the Solvency II coverage ratio. Before you all get incredibly excited about that, please remember the commitment that we've made around the capital, any risk margin and the changes to Solvency II, that we will use those for investment in the business and to investment in U.K. infrastructure. And that's part of the deal, if you like, that has been done. And we've said GBP 25 billion for that over the next 10 years.

And I think if you look specifically at new business strain, I mean, we've guided sort of on the BPAs around sort of 3% to 4% strain generally, and that's sort of rule of thumb. And if I look at the volumes in the strain this half year, we're sort of in that ballpark regardless of buffers and things. I think if we were to sort of take the Solvency II reform as we would think it might play out, then that possibly reduces the strain by 1%. But as you say, it could easily get priced out. So I think the dynamics are yet to play through in the pricing side.

Should we come to William next, and then James, we can come to you afterwards.

William Hawkins from KBW. Could you talk a bit about the outlook and the actions you're taking in Aviva Investors, please? You've emphasized the value that it brings to the whole group, which I think is undeniable, but the performance of a stand-alone profit center is clearly facing headwinds. So does it remain a stand-alone profit center? And if so, what are kind of the key measures here? Is it flows, costs, technology, the outlook there, please? And then secondly, back to the solvency ratio, please. I continue to question myself, is the 160% to 180% a go-to range or a comfort range relative to your 202%. So I guess the question from that, would you be happy with your solvency ratio trending to be materially below 200% on a sustainable basis?

So let's start with Aviva Investors. And you're right, it is undeniably an important part of the group, and will remain as a separate P&L as we've talked about here today. And I think it's just worth setting the Aviva Investors performance in the context of the market. Clearly, revenue for all asset managers, it's a very tricky place. I mean, everybody recognizes that. But have Mark taken the cost out of the business so that the business is ready with strong foundations to grow for the opportunities that exist? Absolutely. I mean, GBP 75 million of cost. We originally thought that would be GBP 50 million. It's GBP 75 million. So that is a significant I think efficiency benefit that Mark has delivered there. Now why is that really important? Well, if we think about the various things that are going on, Solvency II reform, the Mansion House compact, the opportunities that this provides with the growth in the annuity business, what Mark and the team are able to do is access the highest quality of liquid assets at attractive spreads for Doug and his team. And I think that real assets franchise is particularly important when you look at the Solvency II reforms. The other area of opportunity, which I think is significant is in Wealth because the multi-asset fund solutions for the customers and in workplace, and particularly if we think about the compact and the investment into VC into DC, then having that capability and being able to do that and get -- being able to get up and running really quickly, we are at an advantage versus our competitors as far as that is concerned. And Mark and the team are already busy looking at how they gear up to be able to do that. So I think that's really good. As far as the external fund flows, they were positive in the first half of 2023 at GBP 0.2 billion. And obviously, that against the continuing volatile backdrop. And obviously, the team is very much focused now on the top line growth. On the capital framework and the range, I mean, I think in this same interest rate environment, we would expect to be operating at the top end of our range, at the 180%. But we have said that, that is the top end of the range and we will look at sustainable and regular returns of capital. So we're not setting a new target top end of the range of 200%. That is not what we're doing. But -- and later -- just now the capital allocation framework, we believe that there's opportunity to invest in the business, opportunity for potentially for bolt-on M&A, and also opportunity to return regular and sustainable returns of capital. Just to remind you that over the last 3 years, we have returned, including dividends, over GBP 8 billion worth of capital to shareholders, GBP 8 billion. It's a huge number. And over GBP 5 billion of that is in share buyback and the work that we did last year on the B share consolidation. So I think we feel that we have lived up to our side of the bargain in terms of being disciplined about that capital allocation framework.

James, next, yes.

It's James Shuck from Citi. First question on the discounting rate effects on the combined ratio. If I'm not mistaken, the current year discounting rate effects is actually less than the [ FE ] unwind, sort of the unwind on the back book, which looks unusual to me. If you could just help me understand that, please. Secondly, in terms of the CSM movement, in H1, you've got the assumption of experience changes. I'm just interested to know to what extent that brings you kind of totally up to speed, and to what extent you still got kind of CSM mortality tables and things to take into account in the second half of the year? And kind of linked to that, I think you mentioned that you expect the CSM to grow over time. Is that taking into account kind of regular ongoing experience variances? Or is it just the interest accretion and the new business net of the CSM unwind?

Yes. So look, I think on the assumption changes, we've done something quite specific as a result of an ongoing review, and it relates to assumptions of spouse -- surviving spouses in BPA profiles. And we had -- we've kind of gone through all of that work, we considered that we've been particularly conservative on the approach to that. So it's not a longevity related thing. It's specific around number of married people at the survival point. So that's the release that you see or the assumption change that we're pushing through the CSM this time. We can also then see is the experience variance coming through on longevity. Now just to remind you, we tend to look at our longevity assumptions once a year in the latter half of the year. And at the moment, the base tables are still all on 2015, '19. And the trends also place no -- so they're on CMI '21, which places no waitings on the excess deaths in 2021. What we're seeing in experience is that variance is showing that we're actually being more conservative in our longevity assumptions than actually what's happening through the course of the data. So I think whilst we've got to finish looking at the census data and the more up-to-date CMI tables that have come through, and that work is ongoing and will conclude in the second half, I think the experience variance is kind of telling us that -- that's likely to drive some longevity releases. So I suppose we like to guide you on a sort of 200 management actions in a normal year, but it's, of course, quite lumpy. I think you can sort of think of the spouse assumption changes something sort of out of the ordinary. So still be seeing some numbers coming through for mortality in the latter part of the year. Other things that we look at, expenses and expense assumptions, with all of the work that we've done on the efficiency, again, you start to see some of that coming through, too. So in terms of how should we think about the second half, I think you will see some more changes in assumptions impacting the CSM growth in the second part, and obviously, for OFG and OCG, that's also helpful. I mean I think in terms of the discounting, the PYD developments have reduced the discounting impacts slightly. So I think whilst they're perfectly offset, that there is -- sometime it's affected when you've got a PYD development, how that -- the discount rate that applies to that and how that unwinds can give a little bit of an effect. But more generally, we would expect the 2 components to offset. I mean our business is very much driving the undiscounted COR, and that's how we think of the underwriting performance. But obviously, the mechanics of the discounting come through as well.

Should come to Steven.

Steven Haywood from HSBC. Two questions. One, what proportion of your liabilities are encompassed within the CSM? And then hypothetically, if you look at those liabilities that are not within the CSM and potentially were actually going to be accounted for in the CSM, say, investment sort of business? How much bigger would the CSM actually be, if that's possible to do? Secondly, on the asset portfolio side of things, could you give a bit of guidance or something about your outlook for the rest of 2023, particularly on the credit market and on the property market as well, both commercial and retail? Obviously, it seems to be quite resilient in the first half. But if you can see any suggestions of where it's going in the second half, that will be greatly appreciated.

So I should introduce you, Steven, to our hard-working IFRS 17 folks across the organization and suggest to them that they now model a CSM for everything outside of the scope of IFRS 17. They'd be really delighted to hear from you. Frankly, as we sort of laid out, all the GI businesses, the wealth business, the health business, none of those are covered by the CSM. We haven't modeled that hypothetically, certainly not for presentation today. I mean, I think it is important that you do point out the fact that there are other future values of all of those businesses that are not encapsulated. And that's sort of why, on my slide, I didn't -- I took a very specific route through making sure everyone understood what the CSM was well over to. So there is a whole load of the value in the rest of the business for sure. I think in terms of the asset portfolio, again, we see it as incredibly strong and robust. Very good LTV ratios, the interest cover over the -- so the interest cover that the landlords have from the rental income is very strong. When I look at where all that property is, it's in the -- over 50% of it is in London. It's all high quality commercial business, commercial buildings, most of whom -- most of which are already green or on the transition to. So it's highly sought after. Of course, the team is relentlessly on the question of property risk and all of that. So there's nothing to call out as a warning sign. It's all incredibly high quality, other than generally, of course, we're alert to the sort of environment, the economics and, therefore, consequences. But the covenants that we have mean we're -- and we're very close to the landlords as well. We're very close to the portfolios we have. So nothing to call out.

Mandeep, did you want to go next? I think this is probably our last question.

Mandeep Jagpal, RBC Capital Markets. Just 2 for me as well, please. First one is on the BPA asset mix. You announced that your BPA margin based on the expected asset mix at the end of the year. So I was just wondering, given some of the challenges in the property market this year, how has the actual asset origination developed compared to this end of your target? And then just another one kind of on workplace and M&A. Clearly, a very large and growing market for the next few decades. And you spoke about developing your Master Trust proposition. There already have been some consolidation in the DC Master Trust base this year. Would you consider also to kind of being part of the consolidation in order to gain scale more quickly and remain competitive?

So I'll pick up the second one. Charlotte, do you want to?

Yes. So on BPA asset mix, as you say, the VNB is on the target mix. So that's factored in where we would want to be. We are, at the end of the period, we were slightly off the target mix, so we were closer to sort of late 40% rather than the sort of 60% that we aim for. That asset mix has subsequently been closed, so it's been closed through July. So that's -- that was just a timing thing. So I don't see it as anything of a problem. The actual asset generation teams, and again, linking back to the Aviva investors strategically, all of that is in good place. Sometimes though just the timing of when you land the BPA straddles an accounting moment. So which is also why it's helpful to give you the VNB on that target mix because that's much more in line with the pricing. But it obviously does reflect OFG, which is on actual, but again, that's returned as we got through into July.

And on workplace and the Master Trust opportunity, I mean, I think -- we are investing heavily in continuing to improve the proposition. So we've put some new navigation links, which are in the app journey, which sort of simplifies the member experience. So this is all really important, and get them through to the right part of the app that they need to go to. It's now on the app store, if you want to download, it's 4.2 out of 5 scoring, so it's very good. And we're also building a guided retirement solution for many customers to help with that. So I think we see the organic growth opportunity. We're already incredibly well placed. Would we look at opportunities? Yes, of course. We will look at opportunities, but we really are focused on investment in what we already have and basically growing that proposition. And I think we've demonstrated 25% growth in the last 12 months. And as you say, this is a market that's just going to continue to grow, right? I mean there's just -- in essence, there isn't the sort of end point, whereas there is, in some of the other markets, there is no real endpoint in this. So it is worth the investment as we continue to look to the future. Okay? So thank you for that. We know, we're conscious that you've -- there's another results about to take place. And also, of course, the very important England Australia football game, which I'm sure you should all be watching. Thank you so much for coming in this morning, and we'll see you all very soon.