Aviva plc (AV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Aviva's Q3 2024 Trading Update Analyst Call. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Aviva's Group CEO, Amanda Blanc.

Okay. Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Aviva's Third Quarter update. As usual, I'll give a brief overview and then hand over to Charlotte, who will take you through our results in more detail before we open for Q&A. It's been yet another strong quarter of performance for Aviva. Today's numbers show that our strategy is working, driving growth right across the business, particularly in capital-light areas. In general insurance, we've delivered double-digit growth across the U.K., Canada and Ireland. And in U.K. Motor, we've delivered an impressive 13% growth in policies in force year-to-date. There's also been impressive double-digit growth in wealth net flows and Protection & Health sales. And in retirement, we have had an excellent 9 months, increasing our volumes at good margins. These excellent results are driven by our customer-focused strategy, which we showcased at our recent customer in-focus session. Clearly, in Canada, we've had elevated claims from CAT's this quarter as seen across the sector. I couldn't be prouder of the team and how they've responded to our customers through these very difficult times. And of course, our diversified model means that we have been there for our customers when they need us and still achieve strong results overall. We're also moving at pace on recent M&A integrations with AIG, Probitas and [indiscernible], all progressing in line with plans. So we are delivering on our promises, and we have real growth momentum and confidence for the future. All of this is possible because we have the right strategy, a disciplined approach to capital allocation and a strong grip on performance management. And of course, we have an outstanding team who are committed to delivering for our customers and our shareholders. With that, I'll hand over to Charlotte to take you through the numbers.

Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone. It's good to speak to you today about the continued growth across our business and another quarter of strong delivery. I'll first cover the highlights from the businesses, starting with General Insurance. We have achieved premium growth of 15% across U.K., Ireland and Canada. An undiscounted core of 96.8% was only 0.5 point higher than the prior period. This was a good result given the impact of the catastrophe events in Canada, which I'll cover in more depth shortly. Importantly, we have seen improvement in the underlying pool again this quarter, a trend we expect to continue in Q4 as pricing actions continue to earn through. For the U.K. General Insurance business, our performance was very strong again. Premiums were up 18%. In Personal Lines, premiums were up 26% once again due to both pricing actions and new business growth, primarily in Aviva Zero and on PCW. Motor policy Canada has grown 13% this year, leveraging our capabilities turn the strength of our brand. As the team was quick to spot and take action on inflation, this has allowed Aviva to grow our market share at attractive written cause. Commercial Lines premiums grew 11%, driven by strong retention in mid-market and growth in SME and Global Corporate specialty or GCS. GCS also included the addition of Probitas for the first time. Through Probitas we now have access to a global market with a dual platform, more than doubling our distribution opportunity. Importantly, Probitas is already performing in line with our plans for the business the mid-80s core in Q3. The U.K.'s own discounted core was 95.2%, just less than a point lower than the prior period, supported by continued improvement in personal lines partly offset by commercialized performance, which was impacted by a large loss experienced in the first half of the year. In Canada, premiums were up 11%, Personal Lines premiums grew 13%, driven by growth in auto and property and pricing actions across the portfolio. In Commercial Lines, premiums grew 8%, driven by continued favorable pricing actions strong retention and new business growth in GCS. Undiscounted core was 100%, reflecting the CAT events in Canada that have impacted Aviva and our peers this quarter. These included wildfires in Alberta, flooding in Ontario and Quebec and hailstorms in Calgary. The estimated insured loss means that 2024 is the largest loss year for severe weather in Canada on record, and our losses from these events are broadly in line with our market share in the effect of provinces. The discrete Q3 call was 110%. The impact of these events above our long-term average for weather, as you would expect. But despite the impact of these events this quarter, we expect Canada to have a positive underwriting result for the full year 2024, and the strength of the business is demonstrated through its underlying performance. Moving to IWR. In the insurance business, Protection & Health sales were up 22%, with the acquisition of AIG more than offsetting some market contraction in individual protection. Wealth flows of GBP 7.7 billion were up 21%, driven by strong performance in our adviser platform, where customers' inflows have grown strongly. Outstripping outflows, which have remained elevated across the industry. Our platform continues to outperform most of our peers with its value, functionality and reliability -- sorry, reliability a key competitive advantage. Workplace net flows were GBP 5.2 billion in the first 9 months and we have now won 358 schemes in 2024, which will contribute further growth in '25 as these assets transition. Retirement volumes grew 67%, while VNB more than doubled, reflecting higher volumes and strong margins. We wrote GBP 6.1 billion of BPA across 59 deals in the first 9 months. And as of today, we have written GBP 7.8 billion. And we expect this will not materially change over the remaining weeks of the year. So I'm pleased to say we have met our ambition of GBP 15 billion to GBP 20 billion of BPA business across the period '22 to '24. Moving on to the balance sheet. Solvency II cover ratio of 195% reflects the completion of Probitas, payment of the interim dividend and the impact of lower interest rates, while good underlying capital generation was able to absorb the impact of Canadian CATs as well as additional capital strain from the higher BPA volumes in the quarter. Solvency debt leverage and center liquidity remain within appetite at 29.5% of GBP 1.7 billion, respectively. So to summarize, Aviva continues to grow, is financially strong, and we have a firm breadth on performance management, a consistent and positive momentum of another strong quarter give us great confidence in our outlook, the clear benefits of our diversified businesses and our customer focus strategy underpin our confidence in meeting our group ambitions and we are committed to delivering for our shareholders, our customers and our people. And with that, I'll hand over to the operator to start the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Our first caller is Andrew Baker from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

First one, just on the retirement margin. It looks to be tracking ahead of the [indiscernible] guidance you highlighted at the half year. So just as we think about Q4, it looks like there will be a lower contribution from BPA's and therefore, I guess, a higher contribution from individual annuities and the [ OM ]. Just curious what impact that will have on the Q4 stand-alone margin and then secondly, are you able to just, I guess, give us an update on your latest views on new business and renewal trends and claim inflation by your key markets and products as well on the General Insurance side?

Thanks, Andrew. So Charlotte will pickup the first one, I'll pick up the second one?

I mean I think what I'd say is that the retirement margin that I've been guiding to for the full year has been 3%. And that ultimately, in the first half of the year, we saw a high volume of smaller deals. The first and second quarters. And what we've seen in Q3 is some more significantly big deals, the RSA deal [indiscernible] and the deal that we've announced that we signed in Q4 is also a size. So you get variation in the margin depending on the deals. Obviously, we operate at a different deal volume sizes, and we are always hunting for the ones that give us a good margin and the strong IRRs that we look for. So I would still say that even though we're slightly [indiscernible] at this point, I would guide you towards through for the full year. And whilst you're saying there isn't that much in Q4, there is a big deal, the deal that we announced in October GBP 1.7 billion is in Q4. So you're still going to get largely a BPA domination on the margin in Q4 as well.

Thanks, Charlotte. So on the general insurance business, I think you were asking for inflation and rate trends and what we're seeing. So in the U.K., we've seen inflation fall from the 10% experienced in [ '23 ] to mid- to high single digits. We expect claims inflation to continue to track downwards. But obviously, there's a little bit of volatility and uncertainty in things like materials and neighbor markets. In Canada, inflation is at mid-single digits, and we expect similar levels for the rest of the year. So how has that translated in terms of rate? If we think about the U.K. in terms of U.K. motor, U.K. motor has continued to soften. I think you'll have seen the ABI stats this week throughout Q3. So for us, new business rates are down low single digits year-to-date. But I would stress that we have significant rate adequacy in the book. And what you're seeing is considerably higher renewal rates because obviously, there was a lot of rate which was cut through in 2023. In the home market, it's lagging motor and continues to harden about one point of rate per month going through, showing some signs of slowing in Q3. So again, you -- so then there, you will have seen good new business rates and good renewal rates because there was significant rate put through in 2023 also. In terms of commercial lines in general insurance in the U.K. In motor, we're seeing rate increases quarter-on-quarter. Property rates have flattened a little bit. Increases remain mid-single digits. Casualty is roughly flat, but rate coming off in [ sublines ]. So the financial lines. SME, typically seeing better rate conditions than GCS. But I would also stress here we are monitoring our technical price versus the street price, and we have very strong rating adequacy across our lines of business. In Canada, we've put through about 8 to 9 points in personal lines this year. In Commercial Lines, we're seeing mid-single-digit rating increases. We expect about 11% rate in increases in personalized by the end of the year. So hopefully, that is -- that answers your question, Andrew.

Our next caller is Farooq Hanif from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Can we just talk quickly about discounting effect in the combined ratio, it was a little bit better than I expected, but obviously given yield trends, how should we think about that going forward? Secondly, your wealth [indiscernible] margins were a bit lower. Is that because your -- I mean, your comment in the press release about investing in the business. Can you give some sort of idea of what might happen to that number in the next -- in the near term? And then your very, very strong net flows in wealth. I mean, they were very strong. Kind of what's going on there? Is that just because you're investing, you're giving kind of IFAs on board? And where do you expect that to go?

Okay. Shall I pick up the third part and Charlotte, do you want to pick up the first two?

Yes. So look, on discounting, the way we do discounting and not IFRS 17 policy is the same, but the way we do discounting is determined by the rate on the first of January each year. And so what you see this year is you might have expected given that the rate at the beginning of '24 were lower than the rates at the beginning of '23, you might have expected the discount effect to be lower. But it's not just affected by change rate, it is also affected by changes in the levels of reserves. It's sensitive to yield curves, settlement patterns, mix of business, BPM PPOs, et cetera. So it's difficult to give you much more in the way of guidance because it is driven by a number of factors.

And then wealth margin, is your question on -- just can you just repeat the question? Was it in relation to the Q3 display?

Yes. So Q3 discrete, I think, was about 60 bps or something more than 80 last quarter, so just in 3Q '23.

Yes. So let's talk about the flows. So total flows obviously, very, very strong, GBP 7.7 billion, up 21%. The AUM now in that business is GBP 192 billion. So I think we are incredibly pleased with how that's going. Excellent performance in the platform. I'll unpack that a little bit in a second, but up 76%. And obviously, Workplace, which is the workhorse in essence of that business is basically and continues to grow net flows and we're now at GBP 5.2 billion. We are also seeing Direct making good progress. So the Direct numbers are up to [ 226% ], I mean, off a small base, but I think with the launch of that platform. So if I just look at the two key areas around workplace. So AUM is up 23% versus 12 months ago. And net flows around 6% of AUM. So the net flows of GBP 5.2 billion is obviously substantial. But just to give you a few headlines there, we've added 130,000 members in 2024. We've continued to see upside from high levels of wage inflation. And we've seen greater than GBP 2 billion of single premiums year-to-date, which has been increased by pension consolidation activity and benefiting from enhanced marketing and digitization of our customer journeys. So I think that's in workplace. In the -- if you look at the advised wealth platform, I think the performance there is really excellent. Net flows up at 60% versus last year and assets have now surpassed GBP 50 billion. So we're seeing strong inflows across the market. So why?. Well I think, first of all, we're the #1 platform of choice by advisers, and that's the de facto view in 2024. We've got very strong relationships with the IFAs and that includes some really key partnerships. We're also starting to see the synergy benefit of succession. We've now passed over GBP 1 billion onto the platform. We've got things like the ESG modules and we've launched a new asset transition service. So I think what you're seeing here is the benefit of years of hard work of investing in the platform coming through, the strong brand, the strong relationships, the market dynamic, all coming together and seeing a really good performance. So yes, we're really clearly shorter.

I think what you're looking at is for Q3 VNB versus the PVNBP. So VNB was down 16% to GBP 41 million from GBP 48 million whereas the PVNBP is up 15%. And what I would say is that the PVNBP is clearly reflecting a strong growth of sales in the period, particularly on the adviser platform, as Amanda just referenced. But really, the best way to perform -- to assess the performance of this business is based on the net flows of the AUM. So the net flows are increasing by 21% and the AUM increasing by 24% as well to GBP 192 billion. But coming back to the specifics and as you know, we've been investing in the business. And relating to that, in Q3, we put through an expense assumption change, which impacts the VNB in the discrete quarter. Now because we've done it in Q3, but it relates to the whole year, the whole -- this is an element of catch-up because the effect has gone through in Q3. And when you look to the next page, and if you look at the 9 months to date, you can see that they're moving more in line. But more broadly, I just really want to encourage you to focus that much on the VNB for the wealth business. But we obviously put that in so that you can see the VNB for the whole of IWR.

Our next caller is Rhea Shah from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

A couple of questions from me. So the first one is on Probitas. How much was that within the commercial processing premiums and what kind of growth do you expect going forward there? And the second one is a bit wider. In terms of the U.K. budget, there wasn't much that came out that was directly linked to insurers, but could you just comment on how you're thinking about the implications on the budget around NIC and also potentially maybe opting the demand for individual annuities. And then the third one is in the U.K., I mean, the combined ratio is improving, and you've been talking about the pricing actions coming through, which we can see -- just wanted to see at what stage could we see that combined ratio getting closer to the 94% region term target?

Okay. Do you want to pick up one Charlotte and I'll pick the...

So look, I think to give you a broad idea about how much Probitas has contributed this quarter, is [indiscernible] and is very much in line with the plans. And that's just -- if you think that they wrote about 280 in '23. It still requires all of the capital for it to be coming to us. But 54-ish was what was included in Q3. I would say broadly, the integration is going well. We're really confident in the plans and the strategy of Probitas very much in line with what we assumed when we did the transaction in the first place. They've written a low [ ages ] call as well. So in general, very good -- and we see in '24 that the focus is on the lines that they already write. So property, financial, casualty. But as we get into '25, we'll extend it into corporate wider Aviva product suite. And only this week or was it last week -- this week, we announced some new classes for Probitas as well. So it's going well, and it gives us this huge access to the market, which is GBP 200 billion globally. So over time, we really have high hopes for it.

On the budget, I think there was 3 bit -- 3 parts to your question, the budget individual, annuities and NIC. So on the budget, obviously, we like the pro-growth focus, but in order to do that, we obviously need to see a bit of collective and relentless focus on unlocking investments. And I think the pension review, and we've seen some of the statements that [indiscernible] will make a mention how the seeding come through this morning and maybe we'll talk a little bit more about that in a second. Overall, there was no significant impact from the budget from an Aviva perspective. On NIC, of course, there's an impact, but it's not material for us. So we can manage that in our numbers. In terms of the opportunities then, so on individual annuities, yes, obviously, we would see the opportunity for more individual. I mean we're already seeing good growth on individual annuities. But I think in the first instance, what we would see is more in retirement planning coming through, and therefore, a benefit to succession and to the advisers in terms of helping individuals to think about how they plan for their retirement. And then one of the consequences of that will be believe higher demand for individual annuities. And clearly, we work very well placed from that perspective, both in terms of providing the advice and then for fulfilling that from individual annuities. The other opportunities, though, obviously, are around the pension consolidation. And we are obviously the biggest workplace pension provider in the U.K. Workplace pension business, GBP 124 billion. We have very big default schemes that sit within that GBP 124 billion. So we are encouraged by the opportunity for more consolidation in that area because, obviously, with scale, you get the benefit of the efficiency, which we're already providing, but you also get the benefit of greater investment. And encouraging favors, I think, is really important to encourage those [ favors ] that will only ever contribute in enrollment, they are going to need to invest more widely than perhaps they are doing today. And therefore, anything that encourages that more and provides a better outcome to save us, we would clearly encourage that. So I think that hopefully that answered all of those questions. On the core...

The U.K. core. So the U.K. core of 95.2% is better by 0.9% and seen as very strong. And if you look at the discrete call. It was particularly strong so at 93.1%. All of this is driven by the strength of the underlying call, which continues to benefit from all the actions that we've talked about before, the pricing actions being on top of inflation early and that's allowed us to take growth as well as drive pricing through. I think in terms of outlook, I would still bring you back to the overall point that the subline for core is the medium-term our paining point and we can see routes to get to that. But it is a little bit dependent on the rate environment as well. And we optimize for operating profit. So that's we keep our underwriters actually feet to the fire to get us towards that. But different parts of the portfolio will take a different time to get there, but it is still the medium term outlook.

Our next caller is Larissa Van Deventer from Barclays.

Two questions from my side, please. The first one, you mentioned that you saw market contraction in individual protection. Can you elaborate on that? And also if this is a short-term impact or whether you think there may be longer trend? And then the other one on -- I'm actually going to make a 3 questions. The second one, on the Canadian [indiscernible]. We've had two years of elevated catastrophes now. How does that change your thinking with respect to reinsurance? And then the last question, very strong bulk annuity volumes coming through year-to-date. Do you have any insights as to the pipeline for next year? Or is everybody scrambling to get this year's deals locked in?.

Thanks, Larissa. We knew there would have to be 3 questions ultimately. So I'll take 1 and 3 and Charlotte can take 2. On the -- what's driving the contraction in individual protection market. So I think there's an element of cost of living pressures there. Obviously, lower housing activity has definitely reduced demand across the market for retail protection product. I think the half year ABI data showed that the market has contracted 6% versus the prior year. So we're also seeing some element of reduction in APE, due to lower increments on escalating policies as a result of deflation. So if we take a look forward, we expect modest, gradual level of market growth -- we are seeing positive signs in market data with September into media applications, significantly higher than last year. It looks like October will also see lots exceed last year. So obviously, there's that. And then for us specifically, we've got AIG, which gives us the real opportunity, too. So I think the combination of all of those things, we feel positive about it. Charlotte?

In Canada, look, we've indicated in the past that we have about 4 points of weather loading for the group, and it's similar in U.K. Canada, but it's quite differently in Q3, obviously, that made CAT season for Canada, the U.K. weather is more Q1 and Q4. But 4 points and still seems to be a suitable amount for CAT. We clearly monitor it on a continuing basis. But we believe that 2024 has been exceptional and as I say, actually, we've been able to cushion the impact of that, and I still believe that Canada will be profitable from an underwriting profit before we get to [ that's what we could ]. I think it's important to think of the other ways that we manage CAT exposure. So we're very proactive using our voice as the #2 player in Canada to ensure there's more use of capital and construction materials, advocacy that type of thing and some proactive management there. And we continue to build the sophistication of our CAT modeling supporting all the underwriting and pricing and being very clear on the pricing in particular CAT zones and overall focused portfolio management. At this point, with the reinsurance that we have and obviously, we're in the reinsurance round discussions at the moment, we're comfortable, but it's an ongoing focus for [indiscernible] demands it.

On BPA, I mean, I think first, we should congratulate the team. I think they've done a brilliant job and we're definitely focused on optimizing the value, as I think you can also see from the numbers. In terms of -- I think you were asking about what does the pipeline look like? I mean, first of all, I would say that we set an ambition 3 years ago to write between GBP 15 billion and GBP 20 billion. And it looks like we've achieved that little ambition, so we can take that off the list. But if we look at what we think about the market as we look forward, we would expect the market to remain buoyant. We do expect 2024 volumes to be ahead of the record volumes seen in 2023 whilst obviously, some schemes may decide against derisking. We still expect the BPA the market to be positive and it's worth noting, I think, that there's been various market estimates around assumptions around some schemes may not go into buyouts. But we don't expect a big shift at this stage. And we would also say buy-ins and run on it's not mutually exclusive. Some schemes are likely to derisk some parts of their scheme and keep some parts and run on. So I think it's complex, we would still see it as being a positive market. But I'd also stress what I always say, which is just one part of our business, that's the benefit of a diversified model, and we don't just rely on this business for our growth.

Our next caller is William Hawkins from KBW. Please go ahead.

I'll try and stick to two questions. Following the BPA discussion. On the margin side, I've heard pension consultants say that this is the most competitively priced BPA market that they've ever seen. And yet, at the same time, we're seeing providers reporting. I'm not sure if the all-time high margins, but they're certainly very healthy margins. Can you help me just sort of reconcile what sounds like a contradiction there in terms of pricing and margins, please? And then secondly, in the Canada business, you were saying that the first half that you had less favorable reserve development than normal. I think that figure was 1.4%. Can you just comment a little bit on what reserve development in Canada look like in the third quarter, please?

Okay. Charlotte, they feel like questions for you.

Yes. I mean, look, it's a functioning market with lots of players and lots of schemes coming to market. It's certainly competitive for every deal that we do, we will be in amongst a number of other players. And there will be situations where we walk away from a deal because it doesn't look like it's a sufficiently attractive margin and therefore, we [ use ] capital. So I do think it's a fully functioning market, and it's also sort of one of those markets with the bigger deals seem to come to market in the second part of the year. The first half was very much characterized by the smaller deals that we did through Aviva Clarity. So I think you have to be good at what you do, you have to be able to source the assets. You have to have good reinsurance. And if you can do all of those things, then you can make healthy margins and not everybody can. So I think it is -- you have to be good at what you're doing, have the scale and size and the sophistication. The Clarity model, for instance, the smaller deals, all attaches [indiscernible] the reinsurance program. So it means pricing is very easy to do and the securities. So I just think it is a functioning market with a decent number of players. But with our ability to source assets, through Aviva investors, it gives us a bit of an edge. But we only trade when we can do a decent margin because we have the choices across the group. And then in Canada, the -- I mean I'm not going to fully unpack the development because it's certainly a trading update. But to give you some sense, we saw some positive PYD from claims experience in the Ontario Motor property. Coming through this quarter. So to some degree, that's positive compared to where we were at the half year in terms of PYD development.

Our next caller is Andrew Crean from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

A couple of questions. Could you actually give us some numbers about your gross net loss in terms of Canadian net CAT's and secondly, could you say the combined ratio in the U.K. The third quarter was better than 9 months. Can you say whether that was better weather or better underlying trading?

Okay. Just two questions, Okay. Look, I'm not going to give you numbers on the Canadian CAT for this quarter. It's just a trading update. But to give you some sense, we've seen that positive PYD come through. We've seen the benefit of strong pricing action earning through. We've seen a bit better loss experience on that and things like that. And so if I look at the underlying core. It's moved positively since the half year. So at the half year, it was 98.8. It's moved a little bit forward from that. So yes. So just to try and piece it together, you've got the CAT events, which are very much in line with the industry expects. Two of them are going into recoveries from the reinsurance and they're hitting that GBP 125 million retention and the others are not. And the discrete call for the quarter overall is 110 and the underlying is a little bit better than 98.8. In terms of combined for the U.K., as you say, the discrete of 93.1 was very strong. I would say it's very much driven by the strength of the underlying core from all the actions that we've taken. PYD is pretty consistent with the half year. It is generally seen as a benign weather quarter. So the weather loading of 4 points isn't equally distributed across the 4 quarters. So it's much lighter in our estimates, in our plans in both Q2 and Q3, Q1 and Q4 are the heavy ones. What we saw was that basically, we had a [indiscernible] in Q3 was largely set. So weather was decent, but there was some floods in September, but it was very much in line with the loadings that we have. And then I would just bear in mind that Q4 would be expected to be the heavier weather and so that level of discrete core wouldn't expect it to repeat. But the underlying I'm still expecting to continue to improve from all the pricing actions that are particular.

I suppose, could you just give us what you think the industry Canadian loss was? Some idea as to how big, I mean this was a massive event in your third quarter. And to not give us any sense of it is --

The industry estimates are around CAD 7.7 billion, so GBP 4.4 billion. And our share -- our market share is very much in -- our losses are very much in line with our market share in each of the respective provinces with a little bit more concentration in [indiscernible].

Our next caller is Steven Haywood from HSBC.

Three questions, please. So the BPA target has been achieved currently. I wonder whether you can give us indication of what you're looking to do going forward, either on a 3-year cumulative or 1-year basis. That will be quite helpful in sort of providing us with a bit of guidance on where the BPA line will go going forward? Second question, I think you've highlighted obviously that Probitas has launched quite a few new products or product lines. Particularly I read in marine, construction, renewables, event cancellation and M&A. Is that all the new product lines are going to be launching with Probitas or is there more to come? And what do you expect sort of the nominal increase in premiums to be next year versus the sort of base level of GBP 270 million to GBP 280 million per year for Probitas. And then on -- finally, on the FCA investigation protection market, can you give us any kind of indication of what the FDA is thinking about the products that are poor value here? And whether or not any of the Aviva's products that have been either being written now or in the past where there is a potential for the total premiums being paid by the [indiscernible] to actually far exceed the maximum payout level of the policy? Is there an issue here? And what are the concerns also around the commission arrangements in the market?

Well, that's out like 4 questions, and it feels like they're all for me. So I'll pick those up. In terms of the BPA target has been achieved, so good try, but we're not going to be setting any more new targets today. I think that is -- as Charlotte just said, it's a trading statement. Our focus is obviously on making sure that we optimize the value generated from an allocated capital budget. I think we've talked about that before, that we try not to set the team a volume target, even though I know we -- and by the way, it was an ambition target back in 2022. But I think I would just go back to the half year where we said we're focused on growing our capital-light businesses. And I think we've shown today that either we've been successful in doing that and almost keeping flat to their retirement businesses. So that's the way we grow the capital light business. So that's how I would think about that if I were you. In terms of Probitas. So as Charlotte said, the integration is progressing really, really well. And part of the integration plan was always to launch into new asset classes, and you just [indiscernible] us, so I won't do that. So obviously, Aviva underwrote those classes of business before. And what we've done is we've got Aviva underwriter into Probitas so that we can benefit from the dual platform player and that helps us to expand in the GCS space. And again, a good try on getting us to a better new target in terms of that. We're not going to give any new numbers on our aspirations. But clearly, our aspirations are very strong in that area, and we see significant opportunity to be able to grow in that market. And I think that we've got even more excited about Probitas over the last few months than less excited. On the FDA protection market, so obviously, we're fully participated in the market study. And our teams have met with the FCA in advance of that study commencing. I think the indicative time lines are end of Q4 2024 for the next engagement. And Q1 2025 for the study to commence. So just to be incredibly clear here, we have just come through reviewing all of our products as part of consumer GT. We've been through governance. We have seen no issues. And therefore, whilst we will obviously engage with the FDA on this, we do not see that this is an impact -- that this will have an impact for Aviva. And we do not see that any changes that they're proposing or likely to propose and obviously, we run various scenarios will impact overall profitability. So we are a very customer-focused business [indiscernible] new consumer duty. And therefore, we don't see that as being an issue for us. Your fourth question was on what? Sorry, I can't remember.

Just on the commission arrangements that the FDA is concerned about.

On protection? Did you mean on protection, Sorry, Steven.

Yes, on the protection FCA investigation, what the commission arrangements that the FDA is concerned about.

All right. Yes. Okay. I mean, again, I would say that clearly, as part of consumer duty, we'll also have reviewed the commission arrangements. And we don't see any issue from that, but I think they are concerned about whether some of the low decommissions and things like that, but we don't see that as being an issue for us. We've got very robust processes in place to look at the commissions that the brokers are charging. So we don't see that as being an issue for us.

Our next caller is Nasib Ahmed from UBS. Please go ahead.

If I can kind of add on to Steven's question on commissions and ask about the Motor Finance [indiscernible] case. Is there any kind of [ read across ] for the industry around that, particularly, I think the [indiscernible] is talking about consent on commissions and understanding of customers, some insurance commissions can be complex in [ dense ] commissions, et cetera. any kind of worries that you have around that word case? And then 2 questions on my own small ones. The sensor liquidity is GBP 1.7 billion. I don't see a lot of uses to the end of the year and you target about GBP 1 billion, unless they're missing anything. What else would you use the extra GBP 700 million core until the end of the year? And then final question on the India and China JVs. India has had some issues -- what is the strategy there? Are you still holding on to those joint ventures?

Okay. So on Motor Finance, I'll pick that up and then Charlotte maybe the question around the center liquidity. So we do not think, and I say that twice, we do not think that there is a read across to our business from the case on Motor Finance Commission. We have looked at the case and the case is about specific issues. So it was about car dealers and value for money and transparency in the way that we operate fundamentally different than that space. So yes, it focused on commissions. But in the motor finance case, the commissions paid were considered by the court to be high relative to the product that was being sold. And that was a very important factor in the court finding the arrangements to be unfair. So Aviva [indiscernible] I just said, we have a big focus on treating customers value, delivering good customer outcomes. And we've got extensive governance in place ensure that this is the case across the business, and we've just been through consumer duty. And our governance includes reviewing all of our products from a value for money perspective, and that will include any commission element where we are selling via a third party. So we do have broker relationships across our business, and commission is often how advises our remunerate. But what's really important is whether those commissions are set to an appropriate level and meet that value from any criteria and good customer outcomes. And we also have a huge amount of retail Direct and PCW business, which doesn't attract commissions. So I think all of those things would say that we do not have any worries. And on central liquidity, it's GBP 1.7 billion as we say, at the end of October. I mean ultimately, it's a balancing out between when the timing of remittance has come up from the operating companies and whether we pay things like dividends. And so at any particular time, it could be more or less than a bit more above the GBP 1 billion or less above the GBP 1billion. But I wouldn't read anything more specific into it than that.

Yes. And in terms of India and China and the JVs there, I mean, obviously, there's no update because today is a trading update. And so nothing more to say really on that.

Our next caller is Thomas Bateman from Mediobanca. Your line is now muted. Please go ahead.

Sorry to going back to the commission thing. There's obviously just a little bit of uncertainty on the legal landscape at the moment. Just on the commissions, I know you said this, so [indiscernible] on very quickly, but are there any risk -- any risks on the AIG protection that you purchased and the commissions that were sold for any of those products and similarly, when you sell through PCW, are the commissions disclosed for a motor home policy on those websites. And then the second question is just on Aviva Clarity. Can you just give us a quick update there in terms of maybe the type of number or the level of volumes that are coming through this platform.

Yes. Okay. So I mean, on AIG, I think just read across from the statements I made on the wider [indiscernible] because that was a part of all of our consumer duty work and all of our product governance work. And obviously, that business is well into integration now and the team have looked at that. On PCW, I mean there's no commission on PCW, I mean, so there -- I guess, there fees. I actually don't know the answer to that question in terms of like what is disclosed and what is not. But it isn't -- that is not an intermediary in the middle. So I don't know what you're getting out there. So I don't think at that. So I would basically have to date look at that. I don't know the answer. The IR team will come back to you. And then on Aviva Clarity, which I forgot the most updated numbers, we certainly transacted 59, 39, I think by the half year, yes, 59. Yes, 59.

Yes 59, obviously get at 59. Half year, yes 59. So look -- and I think it was particularly obvious in the numbers in the first half, but I think Q1 and Q2, where we saw good volume at good margins. It works very well, and it's very streamlined. It gives customers access to Aviva's name. It's gives them price certainty very easily. They were able to do it quickly. They're able to update their assets on to the system and then we're able to price quickly. So it's working well.

Thank you. There are no further questions on the line. I will hand the call back to you, Amanda.

Okay. So thank you very much, everyone, for all of your questions. As usual, the IR team are available if there's any follow-up on that. But we really appreciate your time this morning. We know that you've got a busy day and a lot of other people go and see, but hopefully, you appreciate the update. Thank you very much.