Aviva plc (AV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to Aviva's Q1 2025 Trading Update Analyst Call. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand over the conference to Aviva's group CEO, Amanda Blanc.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Aviva's First Quarter update. As usual, I'll give a brief overview and then hand over to Charlotte to give you the details before we move to questions. So it's been another great start to the year for Aviva. We continue to trade strongly, serving our customers well, growing profitably across the group and demonstrating the resilience of our diversified business. We are well positioned to continue delivering through this current period of market volatility. What today's numbers tell you is that we are continuing to build momentum by executing on our consistent strategy at pace and focusing on capital-light growth. Let me just share a few highlights. General insurance premiums increased by 9% with strong performances in both personal and commercial lines. We continue to see high levels of interest in health insurance, and we grew sales by 19% with strong demand from consumers and employers. In our Wealth business, we secured GBP 2.3 billion of net flows, which is an encouraging 5% of opening AUM. And we increased net flows by 52% in our Platform business. Putting customers first remains central to our strategy, and we'll continue to deliver for them in quarter 1. We helped customers with claims following snow, ice storms and flooding in Canada. And after Storm Éowyn in Ireland, we have teams on the ground helping our customers arranging repairs to damaged properties and providing alternative accommodation. We also made good strategic progress, accelerating our integration of Probitas as we launched another 2 new lines of business in the first quarter. And our proposed acquisition of Direct Line Group is firmly on track. The DLG shareholder vote was overwhelmingly supportive, and we're really excited about the next phase for the group as we accelerate our capital-light growth and bring the best of Aviva to millions more people. In summary, we continue to be very positive about the outlook for 2025, a transformative year for Aviva. Our balance sheet is strong, and our market-leading businesses are growing profitably and sustainably. All of this gives me renewed confidence in our ability to deliver our existing group ambitions and targets. With that, I'll hand over to Charlotte to take you through the numbers.

Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone. It's good to speak to you today about the continued growth across our business and another quarter of strong delivery. I'll first cover the highlights from the businesses, starting with General Insurance. We achieved premium growth of 9% across the U.K., Ireland and Canada. I'm pleased with the progression of the underlying cause across all markets, a result of our discipline in pricing, strong rate adequacy and cost focus. That said, we experienced elevated weather events in both Ireland and Canada compared to long-term averages. And overall, this led to an undiscounted COR of 96.6%, which was 0.8 points higher than Q1 2024. I'll now unpack this a little more for you, noting a very pleasing milestone that across our U.K. and Ireland GI businesses, we wrote more than GBP 2 billion of premium this quarter. In U.K. General Insurance, we saw strong growth. This was the result of a good balance of new business volume and rate. And as you would expect, we remain focused on profitability. Personal Lines premiums were up 6% to GBP 945 million. Growth was delivered by our intermediated business, both from existing and new partnerships. Premiums in retail were consistent with the strong Q1 2024 levels. We saw good volume growth offset by lower average premiums. This is as expected in the relatively softer market conditions when compared with the hard market of Q1 '24. Across all channels, we continue to take a disciplined approach. We price for inflation with new business demonstrating good rate adequacy and strong wit and calls. Commercial Lines premiums grew to GBP 828 million and with the addition of Probitas to GBP 905 million, up 17%. In GCS, growth predominantly came from new business. Rate was broadly flat as some lines showed rate improvement but were offset by some softening in other lines. Meanwhile, in U.K. SME, commercialized growth came primarily from strong rate and indexation. The U.K. General Insurance undiscounted COR was 95.3%, an improvement of 2 points as the benefits of strong trading and rate increases in the past year continue to earn through. Importantly, Q1 written COR support the continued trend of positive underlying performance development. In Ireland, premiums of GBP 151 million were 21% up with Personal Lines up strongly. The underlying COR remained consistent with the prior year. But as mentioned, weather losses were higher than long-term averages. Storm Éowyn led to elevated claims across the market, and we saw losses broadly in line with our market share. This was the largest windstorm to hit the island in over 40 years, leading to significant damage as well as outages that were sustained for days. As a result, the undiscounted COR was 117.8%. In Canada, premiums of GBP 904 million were up 5% at constant currency. Personal Lines premiums grew 10% driven by continued rate actions across both auto and personal property. In Commercial Lines, premiums were 2% lower as pricing increases taken were more than offset by lower volumes, where we took actions to improve profitability on some accounts. On an underlying basis, COR improved benefiting from rate actions earning through, lower claims frequency and improving theft trends offset inflation impacts, including an adjustment made for inflation estimates of U.S. tariffs. Canadian undiscounted COR was 96.2%, reflecting a number of weather events in the period above long-term averages for Q1. These included floods in Ontario and snow and ice storms towards the end of the quarter. And our losses for these events were broadly in line with our market share. Moving to IWR. In the insurance business, Protection & Health sales were up 19%, with protection volumes benefiting from the acquisition of AIG. Individual protection benefited from strong sales through estate agents in advance of stamp duty increases in April. And the health business continues to show excellent momentum with in-force premiums up 11%. Wealth flows of GBP 2.3 billion represented 5% of opening AUM, another strong performance. Platform continues to perform really well, up 52% to GBP 1.3 billion. We saw record flows ahead of the tax year-end with strong inflows in both adviser platform and Direct Wealth. In Q1, Workplace net flows were an impressive GBP 1.2 billion. Now whilst this was lower than Q1 2024, it simply reflected the exit of one large scheme to another provider. Workplace flows can be uneven from quarter to quarter. Sizable scheme wins have transitioned to Aviva in April, meaning that net flows for wealth overall, as at the end of April were GBP 4 billion, which is up 16% on the same time the previous year. The overall resilience of Workplace flows and the strength of our adviser platform business position us well as we look forward in this key growth area. We remain confident in our ambition that Wealth will deliver GBP 280 million of operating profit by 2027. Retirement volumes grew 4% to GBP 1.8 billion, with VNB up 28%, reflecting improved margins as we wrote more smaller BPA schemes. Total BPA volumes were GBP 1.3 billion across 25 deals in the quarter. We continue to invest in our proposition and are now able to provide indicative quotes to schemes through Aviva Clarity within 48 hours, which is a competitive edge. The BPA pipeline remains reasonably strong, though as mentioned in February at our year-end presentation, we are not likely to see a repeat of the volumes achieved in 2024. In individual annuities, it has been positive to see the benefits of the investment we've been making in our operations with volumes up 32%. That concludes my review of the businesses, and I'll now move to the balance sheet metrics, all of which demonstrate our focus on balance sheet resilience. Solvency of 201% remains strong. To walk you through the main drivers in the period, total capital generation in the quarter created about 5 points, including the usual operating capital generation as well as a small positive from market movements, primarily interest rates. And the full year dividend used about 8 points. I'm really pleased with the debt actions we've taken this year, which contributed a small positive to the ratio in Q1 and resolved the last of the legacy capital instrument. Importantly, we received shareholder approval to cancel the group's preference shares with the process receiving overwhelming support. And subject to one remaining court approval, this concludes a long-standing legacy matter ahead of this year-end when the instruments would cease to qualify as regulatory capital. And just before the end of Q1, we issued our second restricted Tier 1 debt instrument of GBP 500 million, which was keenly priced and heavily oversubscribed. Now the market turbulence following Q1 had no substantial impact on the asset portfolio and solvency ratio, a further demonstration of our balance sheet strength. Sensitivities show we have relatively low exposure to market stress, especially in equities, where we are well hedged. As an indication, the impact of the significant market volatility since the end of Q1 on our solvency ratio was about 1 point adverse as at the end of April. Moving to other balance sheet metrics. Our credit portfolio continued to perform well in Q1, with limited net downgrade to a lower letter, about 1% of the portfolio. There were no downgrades below investment grade. Our portfolio has shown its resilience through various periods of stress over recent years. And remember, insurance companies like Aviva hold these instruments through the cycle and so short-term mark-to-market movements have little impact. Leverage on a consistent basis to the solvency ratio, which makes an allowance for the shareholder approval to cancel the preference shares was 30.1%. And Center liquidity was GBP 1.8 billion at the end of April. This is separate to the GBP 1.8 billion of funds, which have been remitted to the group for the cash component of the DLG acquisition. These funds are held in escrow in preparation for the transaction closing. To summarize, Aviva continues to grow. Our balance sheet is strong, and we have a firm and disciplined grip on performance management. This is a transformative year for Aviva and there is a huge amount of work underway as we progress towards the completion of the DLG transaction and plan for the integration. We remain on track to complete the transaction around the middle of the year, and we are well prepared for the integration and looking forward to unlocking the full potential of the combined group. More broadly, we continue to deliver for our shareholders, our customers [indiscernible]. And specifically, I am confident in our 2026 group targets and business ambitions. While market conditions are uncertain, my view and confidence on the outlook for the group remain very positive and I'm excited about what the future holds. And with that, I'll hand over to the operator to start the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Our first caller is Andrew Sinclair from Bank of America.

First, just on tariffs, I guess, in particular, in Canada, you mentioned that precautionary inflation adjustment for U.S. tariffs. Just can you give us any more details on that? And likewise, have you made any adjustments in the U.K. for tariff impacts. Second, just anything you can tell us more on U.K. Personal Lines pricing. I get that your pricing to maintain strong rate adequacy, but where we are on pricing today, what's the desire to grow at the current pricing levels? What's your view on pricing in the market today? Where we go from here? And thirdly, just on central liquidity, I thought it was a really strong print, given it excludes the funding for DLG. How should we think about that? And is there anything that we should be aware of in terms of timing of remittances or anything like that this year?

Thanks, Andy. Maybe I'll pick up the first 2, and Charlotte can pick up the central liquidity point. So on tariffs, sort of more broadly, we don't -- we have limited sort of direct exposure to those tariffs. And particularly, if you think about the U.K. business, which is a significant proportion of the group, there were really impacted to the extent of any geopolitical or macroeconomic impacts that there may be. And Charlotte has talked through some of the impacts that we've seen, which are very limited. So in Canada, you're right, we do have some exposure through auto. But just to break that down, and I mean, first of all, I think it's fair to say that, that auto tariff has now been postponed for 2 years on auto parts. So at the minute, there is no impact -- direct impact from what we see. But if you think about a motor claim in auto in Canada, 2/3 of that claim is injury and 1/3 of that claim is damage. And of that damage, our estimate is around 50% of that, the parts would be impacted by tariffs. So once you break all of that down, actually, it's a pretty limited impact on Aviva, with the size of the Aviva group. On saying that, we were cautious in adjusting for that. But we've done that in 2 ways. We've looked at what the potential inflationary increase on the reserves because of tariffs. And maybe Charlotte will come back on that, if there's anything more you have to ask on that. And secondly, just in the rating. So obviously, you know that in Canada, the rating environment is such that you have to submit your rates to the regulator. So we've got all of that prepared. And obviously, we're off the back of some strong rating action that we've already taken in Personal Lines in Canada over the last number of years. So we feel pretty well equipped. I think in terms of adjustments in the U.K., no, we haven't made any. But obviously, in the U.K. you got an incredibly dynamic rating environment and an incredibly dynamic feed of data that is going on between claims and underwriting in any one hour. Owen and the team are constantly looking at the pricing and any changes that they're seeing from that. In terms of pricing for Personal Lines in the U.K. so -- look, what we have seen here is that -- so inflation is around mid-single digits. And we think that's sort of across the board. And in Q1, we just talk motor first. We lowered new business rates broadly in line with the market. So there's been some Pearson [indiscernible], I think we've just come out recently, which is down around 4%. But what we are seeing and what I think the external data validates is that pace of reduction has been decelerating through the quarter, and we have seen that continue that deceleration continue into April. So we feel that, that is a pretty good position to be in. So that is new business rates. On renewal pricing, rates are about 1% lower in Q1. I think I would always remind you, and I know I'm speaking to experts and I know you understand this, but we came off the back of significant price adequacy. If we look at the rates that were being put through at the back end of 2023, so the cumulative year-to-date increase Q4 on motor for 2023 is 47%. So what you're seeing is more normalizing of rates. If we talk about home, so on home, the situation is that we have not lowered our rates. So this is Aviva. Whilst the market has softened its rating in Q1, we have not lowered our rates. And I think that if I bring that home and motor together, what you would expect to see from us is that we will obviously maintain rate adequacy. You've seen the performance of the U.K. COR that Charlotte talked about there. We obviously -- we are going to maintain our discipline as the market does what the market does. But we definitely feel that we're in really good shape on both Motor and Home.

Just going back to the Canadian tariff reserve effect to be a bit more specific to build on Amanda's point. So what we've done there is reflected in the Canadian COR is for the open within the context of what Amanda has explained, where we're talking about the motor claim open claims. We've kind of adjusted our inflation assumptions on what those claims supposed to kind of make, and that's led to the slight reserve adjustment. And obviously, we will see over the coming months as those claims actually work through whether that reserving is more or less than actually would it cost to fulfill the claims. So it's relatively modest, but it was precautionary in the face of that inflation driver. And coming then to central liquidity. So at the end of the year, I think we published an end of January position of GBP 1.7 billion. And today, we're publishing the end of April position of GBP 1.8 billion. So it's a GBP 100 million increase. But that -- there's a lot more going on there than that. But I think what you can see and what I'll try and unpick for you now is real power of the cash generation of the group. So let me illustrate with a couple of points. Firstly, and separate to the central liquidity number of GBP 1.8 billion, we remitted cash to the center to be ready for the closing of the DLG transaction. And we combined what we remitted centrally with roughly GBP 400 million from the central liquidity to give us another GBP 1.8 billion, it's not helpful but they're GBP 1.8 billion. But this is the GBP 1 billion of funds that is ring-fenced centrally outside of central liquidity ready for closing the DLG transaction. And having done that, we've then canceled the finance facility that was set up at the time that we announced the deal. So then if you go back to central liquidity, the increase through to the end of April has partly come from the GBP 500 million RT1 debt issuance, which was done right at the end of Q1, and offset by the amount that we've moved across to the ring-fenced fund that I just mentioned. And remembering the ordinary remittances, Q1 is not a big period for ordinary remittance. So that's kind of driven the increase to the GBP 1.8 billion you can see there at the end of the April. So whilst that's high, then it's important to remember that there's some calls on that cash. So we've got the cancellation of the pref shares, which is the prior amount GBP 450 million, then you add the premium is about a total of about GBP 665 million. And then obviously, later in Q2, there's the final dividend payment. So that's using up quite a bit. But obviously, the second quarter when a lot of that central liquidity naturally gets replenished by the remittances from the business operations across the group, which is all very much scheduled on track for delivery in Q2, primarily relates to IWL and the U.K. GI business and is very much in line with the progression towards the target for cash remittances of greater than GBP 5.8 billion over the period, what, '24 to '26. So hopefully, that unpacks it for you, Andy.

Our next caller is Rhea Shah from Deutsche Bank.

3 questions from me, too. The first one in terms of the margin in annuities. This is strong and clearly, you've already said that this is because of the smaller scheme. Do you expect this to continue into the second quarter or the rest of the year? The second question is going back to U.K. GI and Personal Lines, maybe taking it from a different point. But what are you seeing for -- in terms of claim inflation, frequency trends in Motor and Home? And then finally, in terms of Commercial, both in the U.K. but also Canada, what are you seeing in terms of pricing for yourself, but also in terms of market as well, how do you position yourself versus the market?

Charlotte, do you want to pick up one. I'll pick up 2 and 3.

Yes. So look, I think in margins, as we said, it's predominantly driven by strength in the BPA margins. We've written GBP 1.3 billion of volumes in the quarter, which is similar to last year. It's across 25 deals though. So you can see that's typically the smaller schemes. And with that mix sort of weighting more towards the smaller schemes, we see coming through in the higher margin. I think as we progress through the year, we would expect this to normalize as the mix of schemes becomes more normalized to a mix of larger and smaller schemes. So I would kind of guide you back to similar margin levels to what we saw last year as we progress through the year for retirement overall.

Okay. So there's a number of things. Maybe we can start with Commercial Lines pricing. So thinking here, U.K. first. So I mean, good rate adequacy in the book again. I think it is the same story, as we've talked about for retail and that we come off the back of hard markets and good performance. So what we're seeing here, if we break it down is a slowing in rate momentum in the commercialized market overall but particularly for the larger accounts. So this is where we will remain disciplined to make sure that we get the price adequacy right. So we're still targeting rating increases, particularly on those challenged accounts. So I think in these -- in this sort of market, you will be selective about more individual account underwriting rather than group account underwriting. And the retention remains very strong at around 90% in the commercial lines business in the U.K. So if we think about the GCS business, we're still seeing rating increases in motor specialty lines, in liability and property investors. But in some areas like that in financial lines, we are seeing that the soft market conditions of last year have continued into 2025. If we talk about the market, the mid-market business, we're seeing -- still seeing good price increase across all those key lines of business. And in the SME business, we are still seeing good pricing increases. So I think, as always, it's the larger cases that are coming under more scrutiny and more competitive. On the -- you asked about I think about inflation. I thought I did answer that in the first question, but just in case just what I said was on U.K. inflation, it's around mid-single digits, and that's really across all the lines. So I -- sort of 1 break that down for you. And our sort of outlook on that is that we think that, that will continue to plateau. I mean obviously, with all the caveats around macro and everything else. On frequency, so we have seen continued improvement on frequency in the U.K., which I think was the question that we answered back in March -- sorry, February, so it's Q1 2025 frequency has followed similar trend to 2024, here, I'm really talking motor and that's in common, I think, with other areas across the market. We've got fewer accidents than the previous year. But obviously, January weather does affect motor as well it affects other lines of business. So we saw some small increase in frequency in January. But the claims frequency trends are coming down, and that -- there's contributory factors from that, whether that is favorable winter weather in the latter part of the quarter, positive impacts from improvement [Audio Gap]. And also the 20-mile an hour limit obviously, my home country of Wales has put in place and in many other parts of U.K. So you're sort of seeing that coming through. In terms of home frequency, I don't have any sort of specific data on that. But obviously, if there a weather event, you would [Audio Gap] that frequency increase for weather. On Canada, let me just try and find that here. I've got so many pieces of data. It's all very exciting. I know hold on, hold on. What we're seeing in Canada is that inflation is around 5% to 6% in Motor and in Property. So very similar to the U.K. And in terms of rating in both Auto and Property, we've put in around 11%. You can see that's more than adequately covering for inflation. In Commercial Lines, inflation is around 5% to 6%, so the same. Renewal rate increases is just slightly less than that. But again, coming off strong rating, premium retention is about 86%. What I would say on Canada is and Charlotte referenced it in her speech, we have exited an unprofitable scheme. So that is impacting the overall retention. But I think overall, we're in good shape in these. We're monitoring it all very closely and reacting obviously pretty quickly. Hopefully, that's covered all of the questions there, Rhea.

Our next caller is Larissa Van Deventer from Barclays.

Thank you for the detail on the U.K., which I was going to ask. In Canada, though, one of your peers reported a combined ratio that was quite a bit lower than what you reported. How should we think about your geographical exposure and about the evolution in the market going forward, please?

Is that just 1 question, Larissa?

Just one.

Yes. Okay. So maybe I'll ask Charlotte to just comment on the relative, because I think there are differences. But just in terms of sort of geographic exposure more broadly. Obviously, we benefit from diversification -- the geographic diversification in terms of the amount of capital that we have to hold and a very strong position in Canada as the #2 player. It's something that we are looking to continue to maximize. So we've got very strong positions in, whether it's Commercial Lines or Personal Lines and strong partnerships with RBC and a recent other big partner that we signed in Q1. So we feel very comfortable about that. But Charlotte, maybe you can just unpack a little bit the differences.

Yes. And I'll just sort of unpack what's happened in COR because obviously, drawing comparisons to -- is always challenging. But our Q1 in Canada was impacted by, as I said earlier, 3 main weather events. So -- and these were the most destructive winter for weather events in Canada since about 2017. They largely affected Ontario, where we have higher market share than the market average. So our losses were in line with our share, but we have a greater share in Ontario. So this impacts us more than those that are less exposed to that region. So that's what I would say. None of the events were sufficient to be hitting the retentions of the reinsurance, but they were sizable in the context of Q1 and long-term averages that we know we'll expect to see. When I then look at underlying COR, it has improved versus Q1 '24 so that reflects rate continuing to earn through continued market discipline. We've seen continued improvement in [ theft ] trends and that sort of stuff. I think we feel confident about that. We can also -- we've got good line of sight on future rate filings that we've planned, allowing us to navigate inflation and loss trends and continue to move forward with our ambition. So I think it's a good result, but drawing comparisons is always challenging, particularly just based on 1 quarter of data.

Just a quick follow-up. [indiscernible], are those now largely done? Or do you still see that trend continuing?

Yes, much improved. So I think we continue to see that improve. I mean it's slightly above longer-term average, but it's significantly below '23 and the first half of '24. We as well as many of our competitors have taken steps to address that. We've got the tagging that we talked about before, offering discounted installations for high vehicles on comprehensive coverages. So there's a whole range of different things. A lot of it was about awareness, but I think we're in a good place on that now. It's much, much reduced.

Our next caller is Steven Haywood from HSBC.

Two questions from me. Firstly, on Ireland. I know it's a small business, but it's obviously quite important this quarter after a big storm came through. I see that your reinsurance retention is around EUR 30 million here. And I think that the market of the storm [indiscernible] about 10% of that. So it's not quite getting into your reinsurance cover. Is that correct? And this is the 1-in-40 storm event, is a 1-in-40 reinsurance cover adequate going forward? And then secondly, on your BPA, I hear that you're saying that it's going to be [Audio Gap] this year versus last year, but could you give an indication of your expected yearly amount of BPA sales for this year potentially?

Look, I think as you say, it was a big storm, biggest hit 1 in 40 years. Market estimates are around EUR 300 million, and that's very significant. As you say, our market share is around 10%. And so you can sort of roughly size that we're talking about. I mean I think we are at the retention level for Ireland now which is EUR 30 million. So what we've reflected even though there are still some claims coming through, we would -- we kind of hit our retention level, we wouldn't expect further losses from that. If anything, we might see recoveries coming through. So I think we have got the right specific cover for Ireland there. And then in terms of BPA volumes, I think we guided at the full year that sort of 15 to 20 over a 3-year period, as we've seen in the previous 3 years which was the right way to think about it, but not being in the 7s that we saw in that particularly elevated period of '24. So I think more in that 1/3 of 15 to 20, but also recognizing that some years, some of the bigger schemes get delayed or they come forward. And so actually, the market is lumpy and it can vary. And we will, as always, be incredibly disciplined because we have many other places to use our capital. So our objective is always to hit the hurdle rates for and IRRs -- good IRRs and the capital strain that we use and optimize particularly the Aviva investors' ability to access good assets to back them. So that's what you'll see us do. And we'll be disciplined. So some months, some periods will be greater than others.

Our next caller is Andrew Crean from Autonomous.

Andrew, we cannot hear you. I doubt if you are mute.

Andrew, we cannot hear you, so we will move to the next caller, which is Nasib Ahmed from UBS.

So a couple of questions on workplace and one on liquidity. On workplace, you lost the scheme in 2023. Is there any feedback that you've got? And just generally, what are the pension schemes mostly looking at when they're choosing a provider? And then the second question is around margins and workplace. It is a competitive market. You gave a margin, a net margin of around 9 to 10 basis points at In Focus Day. Has that margin compressed? And that's the admin margin? And what are you earning in Aviva investors, given 70% of the AUM is going into Aviva investors? And then the second (sic) [third] question on liquidity. Charlotte, you said this GBP 1.8 billion ring-fenced product line, GBP 400 million from the center, is the other GBP 1.4 billion [Audio Gap]

Okay, Nasib, we can't hear you.

I think we got most of it.

Yes, I think we've got most of it. Shall I do the Workplace financial, and Charlotte, you can do the liquidity one. So I think -- so just on Workplace, maybe give a bit of sort of a background. So the scheming question was lost in 2023. Charlotte gave you the numbers to the end of April, and we did that obviously, deliberately so you can see that this was effectively a one-off in the numbers. So what a scheme sponsors looking for. But obviously, they're looking for a trusted brand. They're looking for a seamless process. They're looking for excellent service, they're looking for various fund availability, whether that's ESG or other allocations. From our perspective, that particular scheme, and obviously, we can't say too much detail, but the pricing was so competitive that we did not want to administer a scheme where the margins would be that same. So we made a decision to -- that we wouldn't compete that. So to say that, obviously, that takes time then for that scheme to come out. And then in April, we won another large scheme some time ago, which came into the numbers. We remain the #1 player in the market. We have won around 135 schemes this quarter alone. Our win rate on schemes is 76%, and our retention rate on schemes is 95%. So I think what that shows you is that we are making -- as in general insurance, we're making calls around being disciplined around our pricing and that's what you've seen here. But we -- it isn't stopping our ability to be able to win schemes. And you see that we have now on both platforms, the adviser and workplace around GBP 200 billion of flows of AUM, and we're seeing really, really good momentum there. So we're not going to talk about the margin compression and those sort of things here too much, but what we would say and we'll recheck and maybe Charlotte will come back is that we're on track to achieve the GBP 280 million of op profit, which obviously a big contributor of that is Workplace and the Adviser platform. And on the AI earnings, again, we're not going to break that down, Charlotte?

Yes. So all I was just going to say is your correct that back in the Wealth in-focus session back in '23, we talked about operating margin of around 10 points, revenue of about 30. When I look back at the '24 numbers, they're very much still in line with that. So yes, you do see some, but we're still tracking in line with that. And as you say, and as Amanda reiterated that's the piece that comes into the IWR business. It's the most material component of the profit, and platform administration fee. But a significant amount of flows do go into Aviva Investors solution. And there, we do earn a fund management fee as well. So there is an additional revenue component that comes there. It's -- as you would expect, quite a lot smaller than the platform fee. And I think, although I don't know, are you back on now, Nasib or is your connection completely dropped? Well, I'll answer, I think, with your question, which was of the GBP 1.8 billion that we have now segregated to complete the cash component, the DLG transaction where did it come from? It was special remittances coming through from the businesses, primarily those, yes, so it was specifically for that purpose and outside of the regular remittances, which remain on track. Okay. We still got anyone or is it all...

Our next caller is William Hawkins from KBW.

Can I just be clear what was the percentage point weather impact in the 96.6 undiscounted combined ratio. I just wanted to be clear in my mind. I think 4% is your normal annual figure. And so I'm just trying to get clear whether we're still comfortably on track for that -- for the rest of the year, or if we should already be nervous that the level of losses in the first quarter has put the normal budget at risk? And then secondly, please, could you also just maybe be clear about the percentage point impact of prior year reserve development. I'm not sure from what you said about the Canadian tariff adjustments. Is that implying that that's a negative PYD in Canada or it might be taking another line. And if it is, does that mean you've had a small negative PYD at the group level? Or is there something offsetting it? And then thirdly, please, the individual annuity growth is massive. Congratulations. I've got in my mind that this is a business that over time is growing 5% to 10%, not north of 30% you just printed. I just wanted, again, get my own expectations kind of framed for the future. What do you think is sustainable relative to that 30% for the full year and looking beyond.

Okay. Charlotte, do you want to pick up the first one, I'll pick up the second.

Yes. So look, William, as usual, on call, we don't provide all of that detail in a trading update, Q1. You'll see that all at the half year, which is a full analysis of the full 6 months of data. That said, looking at the weather overall it's definitely an abnormal amount of weather in the quarter for both Ireland and Canada. When I compare that to Q1 '24, which was relatively benign, so you're seeing quite a swing. Compared to long-term averages. So yes, we talk about 4 points annually, but we load different quarters differently because it doesn't -- it's according to where we expect the weather to be. So long-term averages in a particular quarter will be different to the 4 points per se. And I think I would just say it's always tough when you start the year, and you have them in the first quarter. Even April and March have been much better. So I think we still believe that we're loading in pricing for the right amount of weather and across the year, it will be reasonable. But we -- as you would expect, we're always updating our models to reflect the claims trends and experience and the budget itself while we talk about in point terms, it's increased with the portfolio growth. So I think we feel confident that we've got sufficient weather loading and we're pricing accordingly. We're quite specific now in Canada on pricing in the CAT regions, in particular.

I think the question was -- I can pick that.

Okay.

So on individual annuities, yes, obviously, we've seen really good growth in this quarter. I think that, that comes off suppressed growth last year because we were building our operational capability to be able to deal with the volumes that are coming in. So I think what you should expect is that, that does come back somewhat towards the end of the year, albeit that the growth will still be strong. So we're not going to give you an exact number, but we will still see growth strong. So I think that we were seeing -- we have seen about a 50% increase in terms of our ability to be able to deal with applications versus what we were able to deal with at the beginning of 2024. That got better through 2024. And then -- so obviously, you're comparing a very good quarter in '25 with a quarter in 2024, where operational capability was constrained. But I think it is a product which people are buying. People want to buy it, it is part of their decumulation. And it's an important part of that decumulation and therefore, it's really great for us that we actually were able to bring our operational capability up to the levels that we wanted to. So that's good investment in the business, in systems and people. And sorry, William, you also asked about Canadian PYD. Again, I'm not going to break it out, but there was [unusual in it].

Our next caller is Andrew Crean from Autonomous.

Three questions if I can. Firstly, NatCats in Canada, can you just tell us what the industry loss was and what your market share is? Then secondly, I wanted to ask you about targets. You said you're going to refresh your targets. Should we expect that in August. And as part of that, I noticed when you did the Direct Line deal, you said the Direct Line deal would improve your earnings per share, I think, by 10%. One of the things I noticed is that Direct Line has its amortization of intangibles, about 100 million within its operating line whereas you take amortization below the line. So the question is, was -- when you set the 10% EPS growth target from the deal, does that include or did that exclude the movement of the amortization charge to below the line? Sorry, slightly complicated question. And then third question, I just want to get back to the annuity book and asset optimization because from another couple of companies, we've got a very different view as to what the annual impact of [indiscernible] Phoenix talked about 500 million, Legal talk about 200 million. Could you give us a sense as to what do you expect asset optimization to do each year on your annuity block?

Okay. So Charlotte, do you want to pick up 1 and 3. I'll pick up a bit of the -- first bit of the targets and then you can answer the second bit. So let's start -- shall we start. Maybe we should start with target. I'd love to do the amortization bit. But I wouldn't want to embarrass you, Charlotte.

On the NatCat in Canada, I actually don't have the industry estimates to hand. As I said, they were quite concentrated in Ontario where our market share is concentrated. But it is in line with our market share of it. So I don't have that to hand, sorry. Then do you want to talk more generally about target?

Yes. So on targets more generally, so obviously, just to sort of remind everyone, we set the new 3-year group targets for the full year results presentation back in March last year. And we are obviously confident that the stand-alone business is on track to achieve those targets. So that's all good. Once the DLG acquisition closes, we will come back to you with how the acquisition will impact those existing targets. Clearly, DLG will accelerate our pivot towards capital light. So it's going to contribute operating profit, OFG and cash incremental to those existing targets and we're very focused obviously on that. As we get closer to achieving that, Andrew, we will look to set new targets for the group given the change of the shape of the group. We will look at those target metrics being more closely aligned to our composite payers. So it's difficult to say when we'll have that conversation with you. I think it's unlikely to be August because we complete midyear. But as soon after that as we can, we will come back to you with that because we recognize that, that is -- that's a really important thing to do. And actually, we are quite excited about doing that sort of, if you like, breaking into these new target metrics, which are more closely aligned to the type of group that we are. On the amortization point, Charlotte knock yourself out.

Yes. So look, the 10% EPS accretion that we gave or guided to on the 23rd of December was very much based on stand-alone DLG business and the synergies that we expect. So the QFBS number of 125. We didn't at that stage, make any alignment -- any assumptions on the alignment of accounting policies. And there isn't really any update to give you on that today. When we complete and can look at the record directly, we will, of course, be looking at accounting policies, and we can see what's in the public domain and some of our thoughts are already obviously developing. So that when we strike the acquisition balance sheet, it would be fair to assume that we will be looking to align policies there and make the whole thing more straightforward as we go forward. And there will be valuation differences and all sorts of other things that will come through as we strike that acquisition and balance sheet, which will be really important. On the amortization point, specifically, and just thinking about how that interplays with your 10%. When you acquire something, you create some intangibles often, customer and client assets will be intangibles that you need to bring on to the balance sheet and they are things that amortize because they are separate from goodwill. Those you would expect to go below the line so outside of operating profit as they amortize. Intangibles that are already on the balance sheet, so software, that type of thing, we will reevaluate that at the point of the acquisition balance sheet and then it will start a new amortization profile based on that carrying value. There, we would expect that, that would go through -- still go through operating profit. So there will still be an amortization. Now how that will compare with what you see in DLG will, as you say, depend on as we -- how we align periods and what we amortize and what we don't. And it will also depend on that initial carrying value in the acquisition balance sheet. So there's quite a lot of variables to get through there. And those decisions are the only things that we'll finalize once we've completed the transaction. But taking detail stepping back from it, I think there are likely to be some offsetting items. But I would -- there could be some upside there as well. So we'll update you once we've actually completed and are in a position to understand exactly how to align policies soon. So the third question was around the annuity book and optimization. And Andrew, you did break up just a little bit. Do you want to just -- can you just repeat that question so we make sure we answer it correctly.

Yes. Other companies have got very different targets for asset optimization of their annuity books, via -- say Phoenix talks about the 500 million, I think Legals talks about 200 million of a much bigger book. I just wanted to get a sense as to what your expectation for asset optimization actions each year around?

Yes. So look, I think they're very -- again, without talking about other people's policies, you have definitions of management actions that differ across different companies. And their questions -- their definition, if you look and you compare it to us is more extensive? And so they sort of actually target that and go after it. So that's a little bit different from us where -- and if you read our annual report, we basically say in the directors' view they should be excluded in order to understand the underlying performance. That doesn't make them any less valuable. It's just how we look at it. So we are -- we do go after those types of management actions. You've heard us talk about the guidance of GBP 200 million a year and that will be assumptions under the management actions that drive our capital generation from the balance sheet, and we absolutely see as part of that, how we manage the assets that are allocated to the annuity book. So it is something that we're actively doing. I think it's just a little bit how different companies sort of put prominence to those things, really. But ultimately, it does drive for us as well, capital generation.

Yes. You should look at the definitions though, I think that's where we point you to, Andrew.

Thank you. The final caller we have time for today is Dom O'Mahony from BNP Paribas Exane.

So just to go back to the U.K., if that's all right. And I thought the top line here was very impressive. And I just wanted 2 questions from me. The first is on just on the personal side, it looks like partnerships delivered most of the growth, if I understood correctly. I think that implies extremely strong growth within the partnership portfolio. Could you help us unpack that a bit? I know the nation-wide travel is in there now. I wonder if you could explain what else is in there, what's driving that? And also Nationwide Home, as I understand it, came online early this year, could -- how big could that be for the full year, how much of that contributed, if any, in 1Q? Just on the commercial side, I think as you explained it, pricing and other large stuff is slightly tougher than on the middle and [indiscernible] your growth, I think, was other way around, but you were doing volume in GCS exporters and price in SME, if I've understood correctly, where was that volume in GCS coming from in terms of products? And then I guess a related question on that. We've seen some of your other peers do more gross but reinsure more. Is the bridge to gross to net sort of normal for you this period? Or is there more utilization? And if I can ask just 1 more question, and again apologies, it is still the U.K. I just wanted to understand the message on the combined ratio development. Charlotte, I think you said that the Q1 written COR supported underlying positive development, which is very welcome. If I just compare the 1Q combined ratio of about 95 undiscounted with the COR last year, that is a couple of points, I think, higher give or take than the full year, is that just what we should expect? I understand that the impact of pricing and margins normalizing in retail. Is that sort of a good read for the year?

Okay. There's a lot in there. We're doing very best. There's a lot of detail in there. So I'm not sure whether we'll be able to give you all the detail, but we'll give you as much as we can, okay? So in terms of Personal Lines, U.K. grew by 6%. That was, as Charlotte said in her opening remarks, supported by growth in intermediated which does include the travel partnership with Nationwide. So that has been a good part of that growth. In terms of the home partnership, that hasn't started coming through in the numbers yet. So there's no benefit from that being seen in those numbers. And in terms of the retail volume, I think, again, as Charlotte said, we have grown retail volume, but the average premiums come down, and they sort of net off -- they net off against each other. I think your next question was around GCS growth, where we are seeing growth coming from the Probitas integration and the fact that, that has come through. And I think that's about GBP 77 million of the gross written premiums. Look, I'm not going to tell you where we are winning individual deals, but we have won a number of individual deals because of that dual platform. Charlotte, do you have a bit more to add on that.

Yes, just in GSCS. I mean I think we see in the sort of the CS part of GCS or the Commercial Piece new business wins across property and motor. I think in specialty, it's been wins in construction and renewals. And then down in the sort of more mid-market or SME been benefiting there from continued rates with good growth across, I would say, the smaller digital end of the market and in mid-market. So we're trading -- we trade across the whole platform, and we're always super disciplined and prioritized profits and rate adequacy. So you'll kind of see us trading where we can achieve that objective. So those are some of the areas that we've seen that are outside of the GBP 77 million from Probitas. And then I do think there are really nice examples of where because we've now got Probitas we're being shown business that perhaps neither we nor Probitas saw in the past, and that's particularly interesting as well. So lots of little examples, but I think you'll see that further develop over the year. And then I think just on combined, I mean, I think it is a message of -- we are seeing the pricing coming through and driving underlying improvements. And as I look through to the profitability forecast that we've got for the first half, I can see that all of that strong rating and discipline continues to improve the underlying. Ultimately, we are looking and nobody has asked me today about the sub-94% COR, but it is still the main aiming point and we still believe in it, but we're also just focused on driving economic business and driving forward to optimize operating profit. But I think good indications on the way the underlying is to develop. So I'm positive about that.

Okay. So I think that's the end of the call. It was only a trading update, but you managed to keep us busy for an hour. So thank you for that. There's a lot of detail in there. So obviously, if you need to follow up with the IR team after the call, then please do. But thank you very much for joining the call, and we'll see you all soon.

Thank you. This now concludes our conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.