AWL Agri Business Limited (AWL.BO) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to AWL Agri Business Q2 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call hosted by ICICI Securities. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Dhiraj Mistry from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Mistry.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I would like to thank the management of AWL Agri to give this opportunity to host this call. From the management, we have with us Mr. Angshu Mallick, Executive Deputy Chairman; Mr. Shrikant Kanhere, MD and CEO; Mr. Saumin Sheth, Executive Director and CEO; and Mr. Pankaj Goel, Interim CFO. Over to you, sir.

Yes. Thank you very much, Mr. Mistry. A very warm welcome and very warm good morning to all the participants who are joining the call. I'll take you through a quick deck just to talk about the performance of the company for the quarter 2 as well as H1. For the quarter 2, we delivered a volume of 1.68 million versus Q1 volume of 1.58, which gives us a sequential volume growth of 7% and year-on-year volume growth of 2%. EBITDA, we were able to deliver plus of INR 600 crores against INR 572 crores of Q1. That is also a sequential growth of 7% in EBITDA. And as far as the year-on-year is concerned, the degrowth of 9%. Last year been exceptional and had some cyclical gains of the commodity cycle we had last year. That's why it is negative on year-on-year. And on the PAT, INR 245 crores consolidated PAT against INR 238 crores last quarter, a sequential growth of 3% and 21% degrowth when we look at the PAT of INR 311 crores for the same quarter last year. The strong sequential momentum was, in fact, suggestive of the fact that now the sluggishness in the demand that we saw in the Q1 and to some extent, Q2 is now recovering as the edible oil prices now getting to a normalized level. When we look at the half year number, it's more or less similar kind of trend, what we had in Q2. On H1, we delivered total volume of 3.26 million against 3.31 million of last year, that is kind of flattish growth. As far as the EBITDA is concerned, delivered EBITDA close to INR 1,200 crores against INR 1,300 crores of last year, that is a degrowth of 13%. And on PAT, the consolidated PAT at INR 483 crores again INR 624 crores of last year, that is a degrowth of 23%. On per tonne, in fact, we were able to deliver what we have been saying in our earlier calls as well as a lot of communication with the investing community. We have been able to deliver a gross margin of plus of INR 11,000 per tonne, and also an EBITDA of plus of about INR 3,500 per tonne on H1 as well as Q2. In terms of the market context, for this oil year, what we are seeing is the imports actually are flattish. In fact, when we look at overall import, they have reduced by -- they have degrown by 3%. However, one phenomena, which is hitting the industry quite for some time with the imports from the Nepal with which the India has got a NAFTA agreement and theoil coming from Nepal because Nepal has got a differential duty plus the oil, which comes from Nepal has got a differential duty structure. And it is cheaper than in general edible oil that companies import. So that is hitting hard as far as the imports are concerned, and that's why the imports have to that extent now, Nepal import is close to 12% of overall input that India is going to reduce, particularly for the soya. And most of the imports from Nepal is actually coming in the platform, which is, again, something very not good for the industry as a whole. Crude oil prices trend, I think, finally, we are seeing the trends, which are very normalized kind of trend where the palm is sitting at the low, the cheapest today. And sun is the cost base oil today. However, the only thing, which is still not settling is a spread between the palm and soya, which is quite low at this point in time. And fourth, this is also having some kind of impact on, in general, the demand for the soya and palm oil. Just to give a glimpse of how the industry is performing. I mean, the source for this data is, of course, Nielsen. Edible Oil grew by 1% in the quarter 2 and similarly, I think 1% for the Q1 also. So that is -- that's what we have seen for the entire half. The growth in Edible Oil has not been seen until we can also put some reason to this for a grammage player that has been happening in this industry since last year or so, where the grammage packed, the pouch, the typical pouch, which Edible Oil normally gets sold today, and it's one of the highest selling SKU might be for most of the pack players. Now getting packed with the content of even 7, 7.50 grams kind of SKU sizes against 910 standard size we used to be earlier. So this is also playing to some extent. I'm not putting everything on a grammage play, but the industry -- what -- the point I'm trying to play around here is there is the sluggishness in the edible oil industry, which we have seen in the H1. Wheat flour grew by 4% and 7% in Q1 and Q2. Similarly, Basmati has also got a growth of single -- middle single digit digit for the H1. The another data point, which is suggestive of the fact that the growth or the demand is a is sluggish for pat food product is. Recently, last week, data released by Ministry of Statistics, MoSPI suggest that, particularly in the fast-moving consumer goods, the nondurable fast-moving consumer good in which the edible oil and all the packed staple and food comes in is actually contracting. So the data suggests that FY '23 and FY '24, this industry grew by 3.4% and 1.4%, respectively. However, for FY '25, it contracted by 2.7% and for the H1 of FY '26, it contracted by 0.8%. So this is again suggesting some sluggishness. But I think -- but having said that, all this data is suggesting only for the H1, I think now India has entered into H2, which is more happening half for India, given the fact that most of the festivities in India falls in this half, starting from Diwali till Holi. And we are quite hopeful that this scenario will change as we go forward. On the business update, just as I said, read out in the first slide, we delivered 1.68 million tonnes of volume, which is 2% growth year-on-year. However, if we normalize this volume with a government-to-government export business that we had last year, which was a onetime business, which we did. It's a onetime opportunity that, in fact, came to us. If we normalize with that, I think the total volume growth is up 2% will be 4%. And revenue growth is plus of 20% for us. And of course, the revenue growth is driven by high commodity prices. So other highlights for the performance during the quarter, of course, remains an alternate channel. We remain quite optimistic and excited about this channel. Now alternate channel is clocking on an LTM basis, which is last 12 months, September '25 has clocked more than INR 4,400 crores of revenue, and it is growing very fast, in which quick commerce is growing more than 80%, 85% for us. Branded export, again, is something which is very exciting for us. Last year, we started some activities around it, and it has been growing in this particular basket grew 37% on LTM basis for the September '25. General Edible Oil highlights, I would only highlight one thing. The volume growth of 2%. However, when we look at a 3-year CAGR for the edible oil, it is at 7%, and that's what we target to achieve, which is mid-single-digit growth in edible oil as we go forward, revenue of 26%, which is more from the high prices. PBT of INR 171 crores, 55% drop as compared to last year, and this has got couple of reasons. Of course, one is, of course the low volume itself. And second, of course, is we had some interest -- additional interest charges or finance charges which we have to be in the P&L because the kind of demand which we have planned basis which the procurement was happened, we couldn't see that demand, and therefore, there was some bump up in the working capital, leading to higher interest costs, which was absorbed in this particular quarter. However, the working capital levels will get normalized in next quarter, and we will see the benefit of the inventory, which is procured earlier, finally delivering in the next quarter. The other thing, of course, is in our scheme of the things, you will always have some kind of cyclical plus and minus gains and losses, which gets translated to the next quarter or which they prepone to this quarter. So that's putting that impact. I think the edible oil, we have been able to deliver the reasonably good number in terms of volume as well as the bottom. When we talk about the food and FMCG, the degrowth of 10% on the volume. We did close to 320,000 tonnes of volume. However, if we normalize this again by the government-to-government business of rice export last year we had, I think this 10% will go up and it will look like a flattish growth in the Food segment. So that's how it looks like -- the flattish growth is also coming from a fact that we saw -- in this particular quarter, we saw a lot of competition, particularly in the wheat flour coming in from the small regional players. But I think that is only a short-term phenomena. The companies like us, I think it is only a quarter phenomena. And as we go forward, we should be able to recover from this and should give a better growth on the food basket. The earnings on a PBT is a good story again. We delivered a profit of INR 56 crores on entire food basket, which earlier used to be an EBITDA neutral kind of thing. And of course, on a full year basis, we -- on an H1 basis, we delivered INR 132 crores. When we look at the market share, we have been able to recover our market share in the Basmati Rice. When we look at the quarter number Jan-September '24 to Jan-September '25 similar period, market share has gone up from 7.3% to 7.7% in the Basmati. What flour, we were able to maintain our market share at 5.5%. As we go forward, we should be able to consolidate this market share from here. Our other food products are doing good. The sugar reported 20-plus percent plus kind of growth. Poha recorded 30% plus kind of growth. Soya nuggage, which is one of the hero product in our food basket in terms of the margin profile, actually, marginally declined. I mean the reason for that is, in fact, we were growing the lockers. The entire impact came only in September because this is the product in our overall category, which has got an impact of the GST 2.0, where the GST was reduced from 18% to 5%. So immediately after the announcement by the Finance Minister, the offtake from the market was slowed down and everyone -- the trade in general was waiting for the GST to come in play before start ordering. And that was the reason why the soya declined marginally. I think as we go forward in the next quarter, it would be recovered fully. Industry essential, again, a good story for us. We grew by 20% on volumes, 3-year CAGR of 8%, and we delivered one of the best margins for this particular segment, more driven coming from the Oleo business. We had some positive commodity cycle playing in this particular segment, particularly for the glycerine and the soft noodles. So this is a good story for us. I think normalized profits are also -- should continue as we look at to the next quarter. On subsidiaries, I'll talk a little bit on G Foods, which we acquired in April. I think it is too shorter time to call out the numbers. But I think we have been able to deliver a reasonably good number. We have grown by 8% on volumes and 4% on revenue. GD also has got a significant impact because of the GST 2.0 because most of -- in fact, all the products of the GB Foods actually moved from 18% to 5%. So we -- in the H2, in fact, we should see lot of demand coming in, in this company growing in double-digit on volume as well as revenue. We have done a lot of work around distribution, leveraging AWS distribution to see that this company grow impact in the month of August and September, we did a lot of combo offers along with our Atta for top product, including sauces and jams, which was -- which received a very good response from the market. Bangladesh, finally, things are looking good. We had a very back last 2 years, '23 and '24. Now this year, it is improving the business environment in the country has improved. We have been able to get some traction now. Although the volumes declined only because we are strictly committing ourselves to only branded volumes rather than selling the loose although and that's the reason why the volumes declined. However, on the profitability, we have been able to show the positive number in this country. On channels, general trade, I will not talk too much. I think most exciting remains to alternate channels. Alternate channels grew by 35% for us in Q2, in which quick comm actually grew by 86%. And when we look at market share of AWL in quick comm most of the products, our market share is significantly high. Soya already are commanding more than 50% of market share. Mustard oil, we are commanding more than 40% of market share in this particular channel. So it's a good developing story for us. And as we go forward, I think India will be doing more and more purchasing these channels, and we are doing a lot of efforts around this and activities around this to see that this channel continues to grow. On distribution, we continued our efforts to grow the distribution now at end of September '25, we are reaching close to 900,000 outlets directly. Though our aim is to reach to 1 million outlets. In urban towns, more than 1 lakh plus population, I think we are reaching every town. So it's 100% coverage of more than 1 lakh population in town. Rural town, which is something which we are working on. Now we have close to 58,000 in, which is up by close to 8,000 towns from March '25 and significant growth since March '20 when we were reaching only in the 3,000 plus kind of towns. So this is it from my side as far as the performance update is concerned, anything I took a little more time. But anyway, I'll leave it down. Now I will request moderator to open the floor for question and answer, myself, Mr. Mallick and Saumin and Pankaj are here to answer your questions.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from the line of Raghav Maheshwari with Kamakia Wealth Management.

My question was about the margins actually. I think the presentation was mentioned a couple of times that it was due to a higher base effect apart from that when we are analyzing, let's just say, on a COGS basis on your revenue. So last year's COGS was approximately 87% of the revenue. And this year, it was 88.5%. So where do we see these margins stabilizing at? Where do you see these margins stabilizing at? Are you at the bottom right now? And I would want to know your opinion on that.

I'll -- so what I will -- in fact, what I'll guide you is it's better in our scheme of the things instead of looking at anything as a percentage of revenue. I think my suggestion to you is that you should look at a quarter basis because in our scheme of the things, revenue goes sometime because of the commodity prices. So therefore, not necessarily the COGS method in terms of the percentage of EBITDA method in terms of the percentage. What you should be looking at is the gross margins and the EBITDA. So on overall levels, I think what -- the benchmark that we follow and has been guiding on the investing community is that the gross margin should be in the range of INR 11,000 a tonne and EBITDA of INR 3,500 a tonne, and we are there as far as this quarter is concerned. However, having said that, last year, it was a quite significantly higher number. And the reason for that we have been explaining is last year, we had a couple of good commodity cycle gains and inventory gains, which we were sitting in last year's number. And last year number is an exceptional number and not a representative number as such. So that's what you should keep in mine when you do the calculation, I think then you should be able to get a better understanding of this.

Understood, sir. And any future guidance that you can provide us?

The future guidance, I think, remains same. I think with the run rate at which we are today running, which is close to INR 11,000 a tonne of gross margin and INR 3,500 tonne of EBITDA per tonne, we should continue to deliver that. I don't see any risk as such in delivering that in H2.

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from the line of Harit Kapoor with Investec.

I just had a couple of questions. One was on the industry essentials fee. So if you could just give a little bit more detail H1 has actually been quite good. And I think you mentioned that oleo has kind of driven this growth. So how much of the share of industry since it now is oleochemical? How different currently are the margins for oleo versus, say, caster and the oil takes in your mix? The idea is here to understand that what can be a sustainable kind of per tonne number that we should look at? I know it is volatile, but oleo is relatively less volatility. So just if you could explain Q2 1H as well as the outlook.

Yes, Harit, I think on industry essential, there are 3 subsegments to it. One is, of course, oleo, as mentioned by second the caster oil and third is your cakes and meals within good rapeseed meal and of courese soya meal. This quarter number, of course, is driven more from a oleo as I said in my opening remarks that we had some good calls on -- particularly for the glycerin and the asteric acids. So those are the things which has actually given us an exceptionally good number. However, having said that, the reasonable number for the industry essential overall rather, I would put because many times what happens is you also have a good run in also, but overall, what we look at is similar to what is our overall number, which is close to 11,000 tonnes of our gross margin and close to 1,000 tonnes of our EBITDA. So in this EBITDA is a little less, so you can configure that with if you really want to build a model on industry essential project.

Got it. The other thing was on Edible Oil now, you very clearly mentioned how the fashion trend has worked for different oil. And also that H1 of industry volume perspective has been quite low. I was just trying to get your sense about holding for CH2, do you see that -- because of these differences in pricing that palm oil will continue to be -- the palm oil piece will continue to be under pressure. And from your perspective, palm oil is a reasonable mix. So do you expect that there is an improvement in the volume growth for H2 here or because of this palm oil price still being were pretty firm versus soya, there will be an impact. So just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Okay. See, on -- in H1, you have seen our rupee value has increased by almost 22% plus. That is mainly driven by the higher edible oil prices, and this has impacted consumption. So going forward, what changes we are seeing is that palm prices, which were higher in the beginning of the year has now come down, and it is at the lower level, which normally it should be. Soya bean is priced very close to palm. Soya and palm will always be at same level. Flour is a little high now, but after November, it is likely to come down after the harvest season and the new processing starts in Russia and Ukraine from October, November. Now with GST cut, most of the namkeen, frying, bakery all the products, the taxes are now at 5%. We expect a jump in consumption of snack foods particularly fried items, namkeens and the bakery products. When this happens, obviously, edible oil is an integral part of these products. So edible oil consumption is likely to go up through this route, and we being one of the largest institutional suppliers to all the institutions in the country. Obviously, we see higher consumption in the out-of-home consumption segment. Now as far as in the home consumption is concerned, marriage season, better agri production expected, of course, rains has impacted in large part of the country. But still, overall, the agriculture production should be better. But more important is the Rabi crop that will come up now wheat, mustard seeds and chana, 3 major crops, which will be harvested in February, March. If that crop comes up well, obviously, the rural consumption is likely to more. H2 is always almost 60% of the consumption and H1 is 40%. So that is how we look at consumption. So I think H2 should be much more better.

[Operator Instructions] next question comes from the line of Pallavi with Samik.

Wanted to understand...

Sorry for interrupting. Ms. Pallavi, We cannot hear you. Your voice is breaking. Can you come in the range and talk please? I'm sorry, your voice is still breaking.

Is it still better?

Yes, please go ahead.

Yes. So I wanted to understand the difference for the Nepal issue, what import duty for the glues and the platform of oil? And how do we see this getting resolved in the second half for the industry?

Okay. As far as Nepal is concerned, they don't export any loose oil. As per the agreement, they can export after only value addition and they are exporting only in tax form mostly in 600 or 700-gram pouches. And that also 90% is soybean oil. Now they exported 0% duty. And there is a differential duty because we import and pay 16.5, whereas Nepal brings at 0. So obviously, Nepal has a pricing advantage over domestic production. One, two, all the bordering areas, Nepal, particularly UP, Bihar, Jharkand Bengal, are all in the proximity of Nepal in terms of port, because our nearest port is Haldia. From Haldia, if I have to send to UP or then, our freights are higher than Nepal. So technically speaking, Nepal has a lot of advantage. And that is why almost 15% of Indian soybean oil imports comes now from Nepal at 0% duty.

Sir, has just increased over last year and caused the disruption?

See, last year, it started with around 90,000 a month when the duty went up in India in September. But then in month of the May, the duty was reduced by 10%. So some impact happened, but still today, 60,000, 65,000 tonnes is coming every month.

All right. So this problem will continue in the second half also in terms of impacting our volume.

Like it will continue because as per the APTA agreement, I don't think there is much the government can do, although we, as a trade body has been asking the government to put the analyzing agencies so that there is some restriction in terms of the quality and value addition, which once it was agreed, but nothing much has moved.

Sir, my second question was on the margins in the quick commerce. Are they similar to GP, they are lower given the discounting?

See earlier, e-commerce margins were much higher than general trade. But slowly, what is happening in e-commerce also there is a lot of pressure to promote and keep your brand on top of mind on the consumers. And as you know, there is a lot of competition in the e-commerce, also not within the oil segment, I'm talking between FMCG products, there is a competition. So the Atta brand may push Atta, oil may do oil, chocolates, may do chocolates, then the e-commerce generally promoted through whoever gives them more money. So e-commerce is still better in margin, but it used to give us even better margins than general trade, which is now, I would say, at par or a little more than general trade.

And sir, my last question is what would be the share of institutional sales for our oil business percentage?

Today, overall oil, we sell to institutions, almost 20% of our total volume, mainly to big institutions like Parle, Britania, Nestle, Mondelez, KFC, then you have Haldiram, Bikaji, Balaji, all these type of institutions for frying oil for bakery products for value-added sunflower oil and soybean oil.

So then it's just difficult understand the 2% decline, I mean for volumes, given in traditional, I thought that would be larger and that's why the consumer cannot.

No, institutions also were not doing so well in the first half of the year, and they had got impacted in September also because after the announcement of cut their sales also were -- their productions were actually stopped for some time because they wanted to clear their old stock. So the first half institutions were under pressure, particularly in Q1. But going forward, with the GST rationalization and coming down to 5%, lot of unbranded products will now get into the official fold and we expect brands, good brands to do even better.

Sir, my last question is on the market share loss that you've seen around 100 bps, 17% in oil. Is that reverse? And what would be the reason?

See, we are very strong in North India, particularly Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Bengal, Jharkhand, and these are the areas where the Nepal low-cost soybean oil has impacted. And we being the largest and let me tell you, we have over 50% market share in Bihar over 55%, 60% in Delhi, 60% in Haryana, Punjab. So obviously, we're being the largest shareholder. There, we got impacted because of the cheaper Nepalese brands.

Right. And Nepal share would be how much in market share than Nepal oil?

I think Nepal oil put together is in the range of around 2%, 3% overall market share that they have.

Next question comes from the line of Kunal Shah with Jefferies.

So my first question was on this data point, which you have provided. This is your stand-alone sales -- branded sales in goods grew $0.07. So I just wanted to understand, does this include regional as well because I presume there will be some bright component in that? And if yes, what would be the growth if you take that factor as well? So just like-for-like growth.

These are all branded packed food that we are talking of, and the growth has mainly come from Basmati Rice, sugar and wheat flour in the Q2.

But would this number also have some impact due to regionalize consolidation? Or this wouldn't be.

Yes. But regional rice, if you look at the packed regional rice, branded is also less. Mostly, it is all exported or G2G, what was happening last year. This year, we have exported regional rice, but the volumes are not as high as last year.

So Kunal, to answer your question straight, yes, regional rice rationalizations have impact on the food growth, including the G2E onetime business which we have.

Understood. So for this number to improve the field drivers will be, let's say, improvement in wheat flour and soya Change on a, let's say, on in the next few quarters.

Yes, of course, Yes, yes. Wheat flour, sugar, rice, all have to grow. I mean wheat flour and rice has got a significant 60%, 65% weightage in our food basket. So these 2 has to grow. There is no doubt about it. Sugar also has become quite a significant play in our overall because we are selling 5,000 tonnes a month of sugar. So of course, all these 3 has to grow to deliver better numbers in H2.

Understood. And if you can give some guidance, do you think the H2 food growth should be back to your long-term guidance that may be sort of a number or that would be a bit?

I think so, yes, because second half -- we did not have any G2G business. It was normal business and H2 should be as good or even better than last year's second half.

Understood. Okay. That's clear. My second question is on oil. So when you say overall profitability will remain in that INR 3,500, INR 3,600 mark, would it be fair to assume that oil can see better number, which will get reinvested in foods or we can't look at it that way?

Yes. I think you -- that's how it will work because whatever the INR 3,500 guidance we give, we give on a blended. In our presentation, we have shared the EBITDAs segment-wise. So yes, oil has to deliver better than 3,500 because food is not at that level. So that's how the scheme of the things should work in H2 well. In case you want anything specific, we will certainly provide you the segment-wise also.

Understood. Understood. And the question, Nepal. So I just want to understand this oil domestic crop in Nepal? I mean do these players import it themselves and then be exported to India?

No, no, they don't have any domestic crop. What they do is that they import soybean oil from Asia, like the way we all do at Haldia port And from Haldia port, they take it to the , all the plants are located there, and then they refine and bring it back to India. And mostly, the border states are impacted heavily because you know it's a very transparent border. And that order is also Rexall border or any border that you take are part of the domestic consumption markets, and that is why it has impacted a lot.

Next question comes from the line of _ Dhiraj Mistry with ICICI Securities.

So yes, it's very interesting that you highlighted that they would be back growth for the FMCG part of the portfolio. But if I remember correctly, a couple of years back, you stated that you would be achieving INR 10,000 crores in FY '27 also. So with all this G2G business rationalization and everything, do we still start at INR 10,000 crores in FY '27? Or it would tend to be pushed a bit?

If we look at our volume growth, we should grow at 20% food. First half has been a little low because of the G2G. If you remove that, we are still in the growth phase. Second half onwards looks like much better. And going ahead, we have another 18 months to touch INR 10,000 crores. So we are working on it. We are aware of it that we had said mentioned INR 10,000 crores, but we will be very close to it for sure. We are on it, and we know that we have to deliver. We are banking on Gohana plant now getting streamlined. Rice just started in Gohana, both the lines, so we have around 500 tonne paddy processing daily. Our cloud mill is not yet ready. It will be ready by end of November. That has a capacity of around 550 tonnes a day. So that part will be added to the volume. So these 2 plants plus we have taken a few more plants, which are coming up in Odisha and Bihar, whichwhich we'll add to our volume. Overall, overall, I think with the increase in capacity of the food, we should be able to reach very close to INR 10,000 crores.

Got it. This you were talking about by FY '27?

FY '27. Absolutely.

Okay. And with -- it's very heartening to see that you've improved your margin for the food business with all this rationalization. Would you like to give some guidance for your FMCG business margin going ahead? But it should -- or is it safe to assume that the current oil what you have been clocking in that food and FMCG business, it is safe to assume that we can assume that kind of margin going ahead also?

No. So if I try to answer you this question very straight. I don't think , as Mr. Mallick said, the aggression to grow top line will remain in the next couple of years. So therefore, not necessarily that we may be able to deliver what we have been -- what we have delivered in H1, right? Don't assume safely that this will margin because in case we want to accelerate that growth, we may end up spending a little more on distribution and schemes and promotion. But I think we are now EBITDA positive in the food, I think we will remain EBITDA positive. That's the only thing which I can surely comment upon.

Got it. Okay. And second is on edible oil. So for very near-term outlook and all, but with a high base of palm oil prices have been coming in the base and everything, can we -- what kind of volume value mix we can expect for the oil business in second half?

See, the oil business in second half will driven more in the soft oil category because with -- as it said in this oil category grows, mainly sunflower oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, rice brand oil and mustard oil. These are the 5 oils, which are soft oils, where the consumption is higher in the winter, Palm oil because one frying industry will go to palm as palm will be the cheapest oil number one. Number two, bakery industry obviously takes palm. And hence, palm oil should do well in institution business. But in home consumption, soft oil will do well. So overall, I feel the mix will be more or less same, but soft oil should be a little more.

I was asking from volume and value perspective that the first half value growth was somewhat around 26% and volume was more or less flattish kind of a thing. With that -- how that numbers will pan out for second half?

So on value front, honestly, not much we can do a duty increase or decrease by government or exchange rate all this happens or commodity prices going up and down. So value, we don't generally track so meticulously as much as we do cost per tonne. Second is as volume is concerned, H2 volume is normally higher than H1, and we expect H2 volume to be better low single digit or 5%, 6% should be a good growth that we should get because the country is not consuming even more than 1%. Imports are down by 3%. But H2 should be still better.

Okay. And value would be more or less kind of a flattish kind of a thing with the high base of last year?

Yes, yes, yes. Unless anything drastic happens or any supply chain disruptions or government intervals and increases that tomorrow by 10% or 15%. Obviously, prices will go up.

Okay. Okay. Got it. And any outlook on margin for second half in oil business? Is it safe to assume or you would like to highlight something different?

No. I think our normal run rate of INR 3,500 we should continue on EBITDA. And similarly, the blended gross margins of 11,000 per tonnes.

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from the line of Ragh Maheswari with Wealth Management.

So just to understand which you highlighted earlier regarding the Nepal imports of edible oil. So like you mean overall 12% of soya imports of India is getting accounted for Nepal. So as far as the company is concerned, like what percentage of market share decline as AWL Agri Business seen due to this profitability? If you can quantify it if it's possible or a range?

Okay. See, Nepal, everything comes in pouch. 85%, 90% in pouch and 10% in 15-kilo tens. So they directly compete with the Indian brands in mainly the states of UP, Bihar, Bengal, Jharkhand. Now we have over 50% market share in all these states. So what happens is that our 2 brands Kings and Fortune both has to compete with these cheaper brands and cheaper means, they are 0% duty. So obviously, they are much cheaper. Today, if you -- on cost to cost, it is around INR 15 per liter, cheaper than Indian brands. Obviously, the roadside stalls, hotels, dhabas, all these people have started consuming Nepalese oil. We are largest shareholders, obviously, we have got a hit and our soybean market share has dropped by almost 2.5%, 3%. That is why at all India level, in refined oil consumer pack, we have lost share of around 50 basis points.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. We have reached -- all right. We can take another question that come up that is Niharika Karnani with Capgrow Capital.

Just one question from my end. So in the food and FMCG segment, we spoke about margin thing. So top line expansion will be there aggressively by spending more on distribution. So I wanted to understand when we see this segment contributing meaningfully towards margin? And overall for the company, what steps are being taken to drive margin expansion?

See, I think what we have been seeing for quite some time is that this segment will remain an EBITDA-neutral for some time, though. If you look at our past couple of quarters, we are naturally EBITDA positive on this segment. But having said that, we will remain aggressive on spending to grow. And therefore, our sense is that not before FY '28, this should start contributing really meaningful to the bottom line because by only by that time, FY '28 means, what I'm saying is practically 3 years from now because right now we are into FY '26, then you have '27 and '28. That's where it will start contributing meaningfully to the bottom line and I think better than oil rather, I would say.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. We have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Yes. From AWL team, we thank you, everyone, for attending the call hearing us. Please do reach out to our Investor Relations team for anything specific you want to understand on the company and company model. Thank you.

Thank you, everyone, to have joined this call.

Thank you. On behalf of AWL Agri Business and ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.