AXA SA (CS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone. Good afternoon or good morning depending on where you are. Welcome to this post-site webinar: Rethinking Risk, Its Perception and Future in the Age of Crisis. We are very happy to welcome you today. I am Olivier Desbiey, Head of Foresight team at AXA. And today, we are going to explore the in and outs of risk in Foresight. [indiscernible] We hope this webinar will shed some light on how we can better understand risk perception and how we can make more informed decisions in the future still through this forward-looking lens. And for that, we have a wonderful panel with us today with various expert from academics, business leader, researcher at the intersection of risk and the future. So I'm going to introduce our speakers. And as you know, we used to say that in Foresight, we cannot predict the future. And so far, we strongly hope that Florence Gaub is going to join us. We have maybe a small IT issue for now, but this will be resolved in a very soon future. So I am pleased to introduce our expert of today, starting with Marie, Marie Kwon. So you are a researcher in international relations at École Normale Supérieure. Would you like just to say a quick hello and tell us what you are looking forward to, Marie?

Thank you, Olivier. I'm very happy to be here today, and I would say I'm most excited to be able to share some of the underlying reflections that have guided this report.

Great. Thank you, Marie. Now let's move to Daria, Daria Krivonos. So you are the CEO of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, a non-profit and independent think tank, wonderful think tank. I have to say that AXA is a partner of the Copenhagen Institute. Will you say a quick hi to everyone watching, Daria?

Of course, hi and thank you very much for having us as part of the report. And also part of this webcast. I think there's ever a time to discuss risk, I guess, in a sober and maybe even a positive note, then this is the time. So thank you for having us.

Thank you, Daria. And last but not least, we have Paul-Louis with us. And I would say, Mr. Louis Paul, because we were looking for a picture of you on social media Paul-Louis, but you are quite under the radar, but maybe it is committed to some of the emerging risks we are going to discuss later. So you are the Head of Emerging Risk at AXA Group. Can you say just hello to our people, Paul-Louis?

Yes. Hello, everyone. Thank you for having me in this webinar. I am not undercover Olivier for this event today. But you are in charge of the monitoring and analysis of emerging risk within the risk management department of AXA Group. And so I would be happy to share with you some elements coming from our future risk report, which is published every year and which is also linked to the Foresight report that you have published in March of this year.

Thank you, Paul-Louis. And just prior to enter into webinar, I just want to remind the rules of the game. So we will be together for the upcoming next 45 minutes. For our people that are attending the webinar, you have a Q&A tab somewhere in the team. So feel free to react to ask your question, we will manage to discuss also your question with our great experts today. So prior to enter the conversation, I just want to remind you why we are organizing this webinar, and this is actually the follow-up to the very recent publication from the AXA Foresight team. So it is our latest Foresight report risk perception, and dealing with risk perception. And this year report is grounded in a survey from Future Risks Survey from Ipsos and also in connection with the work Paul-Louis is doing. And we worked on data in 18 countries with 90,000 people from the general population, explaining the way they are experiencing and leaving risk on a daily basis. And the idea is to understand the effect of the sociodemographic characteristics, such as gender, age, education and income on the relationship to risk and to vulnerability. So this is actually the first chapter of the report. And if I can just share some findings connected to the data analysis, we can say that a strong risk attitude is positively associated with being male, being young, younger middle age, between 18 to 40 years old. And also, risk attitude is positively correlated with higher income and education level. So this is for the risk attitude. And regarding the vulnerability feeling, this is also another important dimension that we tackled in a report. We observed through the data that strong vulnerability feeling is perceived more by social disadvantage groups and by women. I'm going just to interrupt myself right now because it seems like finally, Florence, you succeed to enter. I just had to do a quick minute to give you the floor. So thank you, Florence, for joining us. Now you should be able to unmute yourself and then to talk and then we should be able to hear from you. So we are happy to have you with us today. You have multiple ads, but I will just say that you are a writer and founder at Futurate Institute and an expert in international relation. Can you tell us what you are most excited to share today with us, Florence?

First of all, I have to apologize, but after all these years, my entire Microsoft system just collapsed and I had to restart. But here I am. What I'm most excited about in general or about the future. I mean I think the fact that we -- I told you this earlier last week, I thought we are having this conversation to me is the most exciting thing because I think that we throw around terms about risk and permacrisis and polycrises. And I think it just overwhelms people, but the very notion of risk is something you take, somebody you manage, you calculate and you do something about it. I would like us to have a conversation here and, of course, also elsewhere that takes us away from this deer in the headlights mindset and to a place where we can actually manage what's coming our way.

Thank you, Florence. And you will see we will have a little surprise for all of you at the end of the webinar, and it is quite aligned with the message which you just said. So I just want to finish quickly the presentation of the 2023 Foresight report, and just to say also because it is -- this is a Foresight report. So we have a section that is focusing on the future scenarios of what might give people trust in their protection in the future, where we are discussing the role of technologies, the role of trust third parties and the role of communities. And last but not least, I just want to mention that this year, this report is really a collaborative effort. We are very happy to have some contribution from our good friends from the Copenhagen Institute, and we also work with the researcher from the École Normale Supérieure. And finally, we work also especially for scenario with our editorial partner, the French magazine [indiscernible] So that's it for the intro. Now we can really enter the conversation. And we are going to start maybe with you, Marie. And I have a question for you as we had the great lot to work together. Can you maybe start giving us a little theoretical background of the so-called constructivism and positivism view or approach to risk and according to you why it is important to explore both views?

Yes. So the motivation to combine the 2 approaches, it emerges -- it emerged from the reflection that we're not living in a world where most of the information that is made available to us relied greatly on numbers, right? We're constantly talking about polls, budgets and discussing data in general. But the question that we really need to ask ourselves is how exactly do we even attempt to interpret this data? And what are the theoretical underpinnings that bring this quantitative knowledge into being? And this is where the debate between positivism and constructivism fits in. The difference between the 2 approaches can be grossly summarized as one of cognition versus empiricism. And while constructivism allows us to insist on the social construction of reality and the construction of knowledge, it stands in a position to positivism, which rather proclaims that there is 1 knowledge out there and 1 reality as well. And so therefore, relying on both approaches, it allows us to take into consideration not only tangible data from the Future Risk Survey, but also to integrate the many relative realities that are experienced by subjects on a daily basis. And so I would say, recognizing that my reality is not necessarily the same as yours. It allows us to provide a more nuanced reading of quantitative data. And I think it's especially relevant when it comes to -- when we're dealing with an analysis of the associates or perceptions of global risk because it adds quite a few layers of complexity and in that sense, new ones here is especially necessary.

Thank you, Marie. Thank you so much for this first, I would say, definition also of the different approaches to risk. Maybe I'd like to Paul-Louis to maybe have a first reaction because I know that you are as all of us experts of risk, but especially maybe usually from the so-called positivism approach. So according to you, what does it bring to also come with this much more, let's say, individual relationship to risk? What does it bring for you?

Well, actually, this is the complementary view, I would say, of what we are doing with the future risk report. So as it was explained with the future risk report, we intend to publish rankings of the risk by both experts because we are also with the Future Risk Survey interrogating experts within AXA and within our external networks to better understand the perception of risks, and then the general population. But indeed, with the Foresight report, I think this is complementary because we have this perspective and really understanding the sociological or anthropological, I would say, perception of the risk. And this is why I think the 2 views are really complementing each other. So again, we focus on what's the perception of risk, what analysis we can bring for each of the specific risks that we are monitoring for climate, other ESG risks, geopolitical tensions, cyber risk, et cetera. But then it's also interesting to have really how this -- the people are really perceiving the risk per se, and this could also help us to understand our clients' expectation. So this is an important and key focus also for us.

Yes. Thank you, Paul-Louis. Maybe on Florence's side, do you have any thoughts on that? And I know that you are also already following a lot of work, especially at the World Economic Forum on Risk. So according to you, what does it mean 1 more time when we try to understand risk through the individual prism?

So I think the most important thing for people to understand is that we throw around these different words, and they all have different green meaning. So we use interchangeably in the remark, I'm going to say, threats, dangers, risks and uncertainties and to average people, they mean the same thing, basically something that's bad. But in reality, of course, a danger is something bad. A threat is something that has the potential for being bad, but a risk is per definition, something that's calculable. And uncertainty is actually just neutral. This just literally means we don't know. And of course, human beings hate not knowing, so they think uncertainty means it's negative. But for us, when we talk about risk, it means really looking deeper into what do we know? So it's the reflection process, what turns it from a threat or an uncertainty into risk is the reflection process where we flush things out, and we try to put numbers on things. Now of course, not everything is calculable. I understand that for insurances, you love data and the more data, the better. But Frank Knight, the person who in the 1930s, actually wrote an article that defines the difference between uncertainties and risks. He said, if you can't calculate, calculate any way. So just because we can't have -- we don't have the established databases on, I don't know, climate change or risks that we don't have all the data on. The reflection process itself will give us data to make it more tangible. And I think that's the most important thing to understand, to move out of this -- as I said earlier, this year and the headlines perception of everything is bad, and we don't know what to do about it into actively managing what is it that's coming our way. So I think that would be, for me, the key message. They're not all the same things and risk is something we say, the expression we take a risk is an action. Risk of all the 4 categories, as I mentioned, is the only thing we actually can do something about. So we should turn towards them and embrace them and do something about them.

Thank you, Florence. I already have some very interesting vocabulary discussion between constructivism, positivism and now in this nuances around risk, uncertainty and strategy. On your side, Daria, maybe do you have any thoughts on it that you'd like to share with us?

Sure. I mean, I guess I have little to add because a lot has been covered. And I think I very much appreciate the distinction that Florence is making because we are interchanging these things. And I think as we spoke on the call when we prepared is, people often throw a chance into this. So for some reason, when reporters cover news, they still say there's a chance of something bad happening. So that we -- people have a very hard time distinguishing between these different categories. But I also think that the approach taken in the report is maybe even more relevant than just looking at the threats and uncertainties coming because perception is ultimately what's going to drive action. So it often doesn't matter how well we can calculate, how well we can describe it if people perceive it differently, they're going to act based on their perceived reality. And I think that's why this approach, in particular, is very relevant.

Thank you so much. But Daria, we are going to stay with you, Daria because we now want to enter the discussion also related to the changing maybe nature of risk. And you worked a lot with trend as a future studies expert. And I was wondering how do you see, think the changes in society such as transformation of sustainability, geopolitics will also influence our perception of risk from -- is that changed? And maybe how we can influence our perception also of risk in the future?

Sure. And I think that's the thing we're living in a very interesting time, right, because the last IPCC report falls short -- I mean very little short of saying we're not going to make the 1.5 degrees. I think that's -- in UN language, that's basically what they're saying. If only they could agree on something that harsh. And at the same time, we're seeing a war unfold on European soil for the first time in a long time. And it kind of brings out the difference in perception. So still, we perceive the geopolitical element. So we -- I hate to say this, but I still think we're overestimating the short-term risks as we often do as individuals. I mean, don't get me wrong. They're highly increased. I think the danger is here to stay with -- to stay within the terminology. I mean, it's real. But I still think we're overestimating it because you can see now the European budgets suddenly have room for defense and military. I mean, while we were demilitarizing for the last many decades, suddenly, we have room for defense spending. So there's -- I'm not going to say a knee-jerk reaction, but there's a very prompt reaction to the geopolitical element. Meanwhile, we're reading all of these IPCC reports and yet we -- I mean, everybody who's talking about climate change for real, there is still a little bit -- called a little bit alarmist, like everybody calm down. Let's see what we can do about it. We still talk about it as an opportunity for business and export and innovation. So I think, for me, frankly, this just underlines the notion that we have, that we have a tendency to underestimate risks in the short term and -- sorry, overestimated in the short term and completely underestimate in the long term. I think these 2 particular agendas now more than ever just made the distinction significant. So the geopolitical is here now, and I think we're overestimating the risks stemming from that. And the climate change that has been here for a long time, the messages are getting more and more serious and yet we keep saying calm down everybody, it's going to be fine. We see a lot of time to innovate, develop, build and export our way out of this. So I think it's a very interesting time to look at risks, especially through these 2 lenses.

Daria, I think we will come back on that to you later in the discussion, as the fact that maybe were overestimated short-term risks. Very interesting. For you, Florence, maybe, I have also a question because with so many global risk and this was also described by Daria, we are facing right now, our society has been growing to be more and more risk aversion, especially something that we heard a lot during the COVID. As a trend expert, how have you seen risk aversion evolve in the past? And do you think is it going to continue? How you are tackling with that?

I would have a whole book to say on this topic. But first of all, if you're interested in that. I mean, I'm sure you know it, Oliver, there is a book called Against the Gods: The History of Risk, so where this notion actually comes from. Now I think what we've seen as well, western societies, we have managed to eliminate risk that is exterior to us. So contagious diseases, okay, we have the pandemic, but the reality is that most of us die of diseases that are the result of our lifestyle, not of bacteria or viruses. All of these things that used to be the main threats to us is only outside, our ancestors, well then us, we have managed to eliminate. So today, the biggest risk to humanity is humanity itself in a way. And at the same time, because we have managed to unlearn to live with risk that is outside from us. We have become very intolerant. But at the same time, what I find interesting is that risks -- risky sports like surfing, mountain climbing, et cetera have increased at the same time. So I think while at the one hand, human beings, they hate risk, they also needed and there's also a reward, a cognitive reward in our brain when we go up to a risk and handle it. So I would say it's a bit of a paradox of being human. But I think there is a risk to wanting to completely eliminate risk, no pun intended. But we have to also learn and not fall into the status of what Daria was just describing this, the risk is so big in what we call in Foresight, the Cassandra complex. When risks become so overwhelming, we do nothing about them, because our brain literally shuts down. This is what also I made this appeal to manage risks, to think about them constructively rather than starting to panic. But of course, and this is also, I think, in similar to what Daria said, the more distant something is, the less our brain will imagine that that's that it will be our problem. Again, this is something that's a cognitive issue because the further you think into the future, even personal decisions like, I don't know, smoking, for instance, we think we experienced discontinuity ourself. So that risk isn't for Florence. It's for future Florence in a way. so the way to handle that is to actively inject into society's mechanisms to imagine what the future of risks look like and what will they actually feel like. And the way to do that is, of course, you'd use Foresight, you use placeholders. So you can have -- in Japan, they tried that with people that represent generations from the future, but they're actually here now rather than being virtual. So there's a variety of ways that you can do that, but you have to actively do that. It will come not naturally because most of us literally think about the future as a year ahead, not much further than that. So actively managing that at all levels of society, I think that would be the way to do this.

And I noticed that you mentioned extreme sports, and it was very interesting. Because in the report, really, we have a cross interview between [indiscernible] she's a snowboarder and wins with women, so extreme sports women, discussing exactly the version of the society of risks with a researcher. I'm going to go to Paul-Louis now because I'd like to have to have your point of view on that, but really maybe on the changing nature of risk, you know that we are in the society where so we are following is a very great publication of the future risk report. And we earn over the last few years, last year, a narrative that the risks are becoming maybe much more complex and much more intertwined. So can you tell us your analysis on that?

Yes. Obviously, what we can say, from the various future risk reports that we have permission to know and how we are -- and then with the data that we have known from both experts and the general population is that risks are more and more interconnected, obviously. So the climate crisis is impacting geopolitical tensions due, for instance, to migrations. It's impacting food security. We have the link between geopolitical tensions and cyber because obviously, this geopolitical instability is increasing the risk of cyber attacks by either criminal groups or national states. We have also the interconnection between health risks and climate risks. And the fact that the pandemic also had an impact on cyber because our reliance on digital system increased with the lockdown, the COVID-19 lockdowns and therefore, increased also the cyber risk. So we have indeed this interconnectedness of risks, which is highlighted in the analysis that we are publishing. But also 1 key message linked to the risk perception is that we can say indeed that people are more and more risk-averse, and this is also -- and they have also a rising sense of vulnerability coupled with what we could call an erosion of trust in various factors, maybe I think you will expand on that later with regard to your report also as it was mentioned. But the fact is that we have members of the public, which agree with the fact that they avoid taking risks in their daily lives, even if it means to give up their dreams. So now we have a majority of respondents who say that in the report, in the analysis, even in the U.S., which is the land of the American reign, now we have a majority, more than [ 52% ] of the people surveyed who say that they would rather give up their dreams in order to not to take too much risks. And also not only looking at the general population because I know our discussion is focused on the public. But when we serve also our experts, the risk managers, underwriters, clients, bankers, et cetera, nearly all of them, so nearly 90% of them. And I think that the people globally are more vulnerable than they were 5 years ago. And the percentage that we have, so almost 90% is up 5 percentage points on the last year survey. So we see also that the risk manager and risk experts, are also seeing this increase in the vulnerability and in the perception of risks by the general public. So indeed, we have all these trends with regard to the vulnerability, the erosion of trust and the people being more and more risk-averse. So this is an analysis that we share also in the emerging risk report.

Probably, I want to stay with you, Paul-Louis because I have a complementary question and it is also connected to what Daria mentioned, at some time, maybe we are overestimated short-term risk. So do you think that some of the so-called emerging risk that you are following are maybe still a bit too much under the radar today? Or what do you see as a future risk evolving?

Well, the first message would be on financial and economical risks because indeed, our experts are more and more worried about financial and economic risks. And last year, for instance, in 2022, in our future risk ranking, 3 financial and economic risks were in the top 10 of the future risk report. So well before the [indiscernible] and Credit Suisse falls in early 2023. However, what we can see is that there is a gap between the perception by risk experts and by the general population where this economical and financial risks are less of a worry in the radar. And so this goes, for instance, for more financial literacy and financial education, I think. So this is 1 key message. We really have these risks under the radar of the -- or not well in the radar of the general public, and this is something that we should be worried of. And also on cyber, for instance, in Europe, the cyber risk is very -- not very well ranked. So it may highlight a lack of awareness about this risk. We have some countries where this risk is not high in the ranking, while, for instance, and you know it very well in the U.S. and in America, more probably, cyber is one of the big threats for the general population. So this is something that we should have in mind. And then obviously, all the risks related to new technologies like the emergence of the metaverse, the emergence of generative AI, et cetera, are still at the bottom of the risks ranking for the general population. So -- well, this is higher for the experts. So this is something that we should keep in mind and to understand how we could raise awareness about the specific risks, cyber, financial risks and new technologies one.

Thank you, Paul-Louis. The perfect condition for the third part of our discussion because we want now to talk about the future. And I'd like to start with Daria and Florence. And I guess it is -- I have actually, which is the same question for both of you. Talking about the future, I would like to know on your side, if you think that what could be the risk of the future or where there may be some already existing risk are not seen with their world potential, if I could say so. So on one hand, what are the risks of the future? And on the second one, I'd like to know what are the tools we can use? How we can better work to better anticipate this new risk? Maybe starting with you, Florence.

So the first thing is I just wanted to perhaps remind everybody -- you all know this, but the audience that there is no link between risk perception and risk likelihood. In other words, human beings have a distorted perception of risk. So we overestimate risk because we hear a lot about, but there's a whole range of literature on this. So just because you obsess about something, that doesn't mean that that's the likeliest thing that's going to happen to you. So I think that's something to bear in mind that it's more of a feeling than a fact. But I think something that -- I mean climate change, I think that's the obvious one. People are becoming more and more aware of it. We're probably late to the party, but I still think that things are being said in emotions. At the moment, that's not the 1 thing that I think people are underestimating the most because there, it's increasing. What people underestimate all the time is, of course, their personal risk when it comes to cyber, we just heard that. But then the other thing I find absolutely fascinating is that we have clear evidence from the WHO, World Health Organization, on personal risk when it comes to heart disease. And virtually none of us are working out enough, and all of us are eating too much garbage. So I'm surprised that as societies as Western societies, you -- we have an attitude to health to risk when it comes to personal health that is completely distorted. Because in reality, it's our personal behavior that makes us very vulnerable to this risk. So I think that is perhaps the first thing. Then to your second question, how do you identify risk. The first thing is, I would say, first, right, everything now, and that's the first thing that comes to your mind and then set that aside because if it came to your mind, it's already manageable. So the way we do that also with the World Economic Forum is that we push each other constantly onto the corners, into the shadows of thinking about the future. So that's where you play with black swans or science fiction, where you go really into the ludicrous and try to push your cognitive perception. So of course, that's not something that I would advise for the general public to do. But I think as societies, that needs to be in order to be ahead of the game rather than just asking people, what's the first thing that comes to your mind, ask, what's the second thing or the third thing that comes to your mind because that's where you're making yourself vulnerable where you're not thinking about it.

Thank you, Florence. And I love the fact that the noding between the risk perception. To me, touch, it is true for the general population only or also for expert and the risk likely but I was thinking that maybe that it is a way to say that maybe ChatGPT is as good as expert to predict future risk. Maybe for you, Daria, on the same question, what are the risk of the future you can envision and on what is the method or the tools we can use to better anticipate maybe the role of Foresight in that?

Sure. Well, I think first of all, and here I speak as a former risk professional not as the Foresight person. So I spent 10 years working with risk in a big corporate and a global corporate. And I've seen firsthand how much we're willing -- not willing, how vulnerable we are to cognitive biases, even the smartest people in the room end up having either a gut feeling or having read an article or they heard of somebody who has whatever. So I fully agree with everything Florence said, I think the perception element is I see it as the biggest risk because we keep disregarding data, and I think we keep misunderstanding statistics, and we go with this gut feeling. And I think a lot of bad decisions have been made on that note. I think one -- also I agree with Florence on the second and third, but also in the sense of the second and third tier effect. So if anybody has ever played around with the futures we will, as a tool, it's a very interesting exercise where you place an event in the middle and then you go out 1 degree and say, well, if this happens, what could it lead to? And then you forget what was in the middle. And then you go a second degree out and say, well, if this happens, then what? And suddenly, you have a logical trail of events where you can't deny a single of the links, but you end up at a completely different place than you otherwise would have thought. So you kind of try and remove the linearity of imagination. And I think we missed those second and third-tier effects because sometimes we look at something realized is not a risk to me, and then we forget the domino effect. And at the end of this report, you can find a whiplash that is going to hurt badly. So I think we disregard the second and third-tier effects of things because we focus on something in particular. And I know we're going to end on a positive note later, but I do think that given our cognitive biases and we want everything to -- we like heavy innings, otherwise, Hollywood wouldn't have an industry. But I also think there is a risk related to us forgetting -- right now, the world is black and white, and I'm speaking to the current environment. Of course, suddenly, we have this dark theater effect. As much as we want nuances, it's extremely confusing to have nuances, we don't know who are the bad guys, who are the good guys, what side are we on, et cetera. And suddenly, we have that distinction. But we know the world is not black and white, but we fall into that trap, which means we forget what may be potential threats or risks on the other side of the good news. So say, the conflict in Europe ends, which we all hope it will soon, preferably yesterday, but on the other end of that, there's going to be uncertainty, new uncertainties or old risks that are going to resurface, but somehow, we've forgotten about them, be it the divergence in centrifugal forces of Europe where some of the agendas have been parked for the entire time that we've been discussing something else. So I think the biggest risks I'm seeing to summarize is our own cognitive biases, which means, in the end, we make our risk mitigation decisions based on gut feeling and what we've just read somewhere, so we misperceived risk and likelihood, also as Florence said. The second part is, when we've done discussing the 1 event, we should go further and are reluctance or at least our lack of time to do that, I think, of the risk. And the last one is we have to be willing to have the conversation of what happens on the other side of good news because it's going to have a branch effect, and there's going to be things that need to be managed. So those are the main 3 probably for me.

Thank you, Daria. Thank you so much indeed. So I thought that we already have some questions in the Q&A, but prior to go to the question. I'd like to hear from you, Marie, because I'd like to have also your view. And according to you, what is the role of research in anticipating the future?

Thank you, Olivier. Yes, I believe the role of research in anticipating the future, as you said, is one of collaboration. And I think efforts such as this one, where we join not only what we believe to be the proper research sector and by that, I mean the academic sector, research institute and think tanks. But also involve members of public and private institution is really the way to go. And as it was so clearly you mentioned perceptions and risks are not necessarily synonymous in light of the cognitive biases and the misperceptions that have also clearly been mentioned by Daria and Florence. And this is why I think it's -- when we talk about risk, it's necessarily important to combine approaches. And I think being able to understand where perceptions are coming from, even though they might be flawed, and how they are shaped by context is also something that is crucial. And I think their research actors really have role to play. And I think the added value of the report that we are discussing today is that it tried to do exactly that. And I am confident that producing more nuance risk assessment and -- allows for more adequate and targeted risk management. And definitely, I think better knowledge is a precondition to preventing risk, and this is surely a step in the right direction.

Okay. Thank you so much, Marie. So we have some questions in the chat. So there is one maybe that is accounted to also what Paul-Louis mentioned, but I don't know who wants to take it. So we have a question, how has technology impacted society's perception of risk? And what opportunities and challenges that it represent? So who want to take that one? Go ahead Florence.

So I want to know of this. I want to also hear from the others because what we know is that the effect of being constantly connected actually has increased rather than decreased a feeling or rather the tolerance for uncertainty. So modern technology, the fact that we can constantly reach or think we can reach everybody at all times has actually made us more fearful. So I would say modern technology has made us more scared, which is perhaps also why we have this nostalgic for time, while ancestors have lived happily, but they had no certainty whatsoever. It's just that they didn't expect it. So my perception is that -- or not just mine the data also shows that it has made us more, more people and therefore, more vulnerable when it comes to the conversation about risk.

Anyone who wants to answer, yes, Daria.

Maybe just start beating floors to the answers because I think I echo everything she says. So I agree with that. But I also think that I mean my big usual message is I think technology is a force multiplier. It's very few technologies have actually altered society. So even today, some 110 years later, when I warned the kids about the car, it's pretty much the same car that Ford invented at the beginning of the last century, right? It moves a little bit faster, but it's the same risk I'm warning them about. It looks the same and moves the same. It acts the same. So, I think sometimes we often tend to overestimate the effect of technology. So I think the unfortunately, Florence actually made that 1 point. I do agree about with technology is that it's the fact that we are constantly informed of things does not make things easier, and that's maybe the one impact that it's had. And also we were informed the things not just happening in real time, but happening in places that don't necessarily affect us yet, but it has a feedback loop that makes us respond to things and actually propel some risks out of proportion because they have nothing to do with this in the first place. So I think that's the 1 thing about technology. I think for the rest of it, I think very often, we overestimate technological impact and underestimate societal change, which moves slower, and again back to the overreaction towards the underreaction. And I think technology in itself is actually quite neutral. It's unfortunately, what we make of it that turns it into the risks of the opportunities that we see.

Okay. Very clear, Daria. We have another question. I'm just going to read it, but I'm going to add mind just after you will see why because someone is asking, how can we encourage a more optimistic outlook and risk-taking, also because it jumped on my screen on risk taking and to put some innovation on that. So unfortunately, I'm using the question. Sorry. No, okay. How can we encourage a more optimistic outlook on risk-taking and innovation in society in the face of uncertainty and potential setbacks? So I just read that question because you know that I have another question for you. So it reflects some of our discussion. First, with the point you mentioned by Florence, that there is always a difference between areas that that can be mitigated and [indiscernible] and threat. And also, I don't want to talk too much into a happy ending, Daria, as you mentioned, everyone would know that, but I have a question for you. I'd like to know what makes you optimistic thinking about the future and why? Maybe we can start by with Marie for that. I want to have your good reason to be optimistic about the future, but serious one.

Well, hopefully, this is serious enough. But I would say, I'm very optimistic precisely because about efforts such as this one. So trying to go beyond classical risk assessment and try to get to the bottom of what the political reality of some people is and how that impacts risk perceptions and then later reactions initiatives and solutions. So I think this is very much a reason to be hopeful about the future.

Thank you, Marie. On your side, Paul-Louie, as an emerging risk manager, do you have at least 1 good reason, just 1 good reason to be optimistic about the future?

I have more than 100, but if I can pick only one, I think, is the fact that we observed that young people are more hopeful. And I think this is crucial, and this is one of the key messages that we try also to share when we analyze the perception of emerging risk because what we see is that all age demographics in general, they recognize these increasing levels of vulnerability that I mentioned before. But this trend is a bit less pronounced for young people. And so yes, they are more also helpful about the ability to find collective solution to mitigate future crisis, trust more some actors such as entities or international organizations. And also to realize with one of the things that we have mentioned earlier in the webinar about people giving up some of their dreams for this specific aspect. I can tell you that only less than 40% of people thing that they would give up their dreams to result on to take any risks, while it is 54% for the wider population. So we can see that the young people, the young generation is not about to give up their dreams. And I think this is something that makes us optimistic about the future, as you said.

Thank you, Paul-Louis. Daria, for you. In addition to have AXA as a beautiful partner at Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. Do you have other reasons to be optimistic about the future?

Well, that is one big reason already. So the rest -- the rest are just small additions. But I think, again, also piggybacking on what Paul-Louis said, I think there's a greater sense of empathy in the new generations. And for -- I think all generations have the reasons to be who they are, their product, of their time. And we can see if you believe in generational theory, that you can see that some of the previous ones were more driven by the apps and the Generation X, et cetera. So personal wealth, financial security, et cetera, et cetera. So they were driven more by individual utility. And when you look at the young ones, we're not teenagers anymore. I mean, they're going into actual grown-ups and entering the labor market, and they're keeping that empathetic collective mindset. So I think that's very much a positive. So I think they're thinking somewhat more collectively and more on societal terms than the generation before, who created well, so they did a lot of good as well, but this is different. I think the other thing for me is, and you said it had to be serious, and I mean it seriously, but it's just unless -- I mean we do have regression. We do have stagnation, but on a global scale, if we look on average, which is, of course, a big simplification of the world, the future has always been better than the past. So I think there's already a good reason to be optimistic because on average, and I know we've had setbacks in many places. But on average, in the longer term, it seems that the future is better than the past. And that is regarding how nostalgic and romantic we can be about the ancestors who, Florence mentioned that they didn't have a care in the world, but they were harvesting and then or sitting around the fire. But I think the 1 thing that really leaves me optimistic, and I think -- but it also means that we have -- we should be getting busy, and that's because every time we discuss history, we always go back to, let's say, 5, 10 years, 15 years to say, oh, there are precursors to this is because something, something happened and then 10 years later, this -- which also means that what's going on now is going to impact the future. So as much as we can explain history, we always want to explain history, I think it obliges us to own up to the fact that what we're doing now is going to have an impact on the future. That gives us responsibility, but it also gives us agency, which means we have a say, in the future we're going to get. So this whole notion that the present is a recently unimaginable future. Yes. But now we are in the presence. So let's try and imagine the future we want to actually act that way. So I think there's agency, there's empathy in the new generation. And I think the fact that on average, the global future has always been better than the global past. I think those 3 things leave me optimistic.

Thank you, Daria. And you, Florence, you tend to agree with Daria usually. So are you also -- do you agree on that saying that the future is brighter than the past, giving a bit of your perspective, tell us.

Yes. So one thing that's predictable, that Daria and I agree, which gives me an opportunity to actually to expand. So I fully agree with everything that you said, Daria. I think what is -- the question was, how can you think more optimistically? I think the first thing to understand is that the future is not something that will happen because as soon as it's here, it's no longer the future, it's the present. So the future is the story you tell yourself about what that will be. And that's very important, and that's a choice. People think that something out there, but it's actually something in your head. So you are responsible for the way you think about the future and for what information you consume. And so for instance, I read the new scientists every Saturday religiously because it's a watch with new with innovative ideas or with news from the front line, so to speak, on science. And it gives me hope because I can see that everywhere in the world, people are working on a solution to 1 type of the problem that we will face or actually that we're facing already. So I think that's perhaps the first thing. Be aware that -- be mindful about the future because -- and this is not a law of attraction nonsense. We know that the things that we think about, we tend to make them come true. So we have to be very careful about the future and exactly what Daria just said. Imagine what you want it to be and then work towards that. Don't get stuck in the present imagining how horrible it will be because then there's a good chance that will actually be horrible. So what I'm optimistic about and why I'm optimistic is because we are the ones to get to shape things. And I'm 45 years old. In my own lifetime, I have seen so many positive changes that I know that more positive changes will come, be it in technology, be it because people are moving, be it because of the new generation. They're different from us. So there's many reasons to believe that not all is a lost cause. But of course, it takes effort, and it's a mindset. So my most -- the main reason for me to be optimistic is because we're having this conversation at all. 10 years ago, we did not have -- well, we didn't have Zoom calls to start, but we didn't even think about what the future view which is sterling along. So even if this feels uncomfortable at the time of crisis, this is also the moment where we will design and define the future and it will be the definition because of this process be better than what we have now. Is it always pleasant? No. But is it going to be better? I think, yes.

Thank You so much, Florence. It is very clear. And thank you all because those reasons are just perfect and I hope our audience feel as inspired as I do. And why we wanted to ask you that it is because we have an announcement for our people today. Actually, we organized last year in December. The first event, the AXA Foresight event called 100+ reasons to love the future. That is to me, it's really granted in a very traditional Foresight posture or the fact that, of course, the future isn't written. We cannot predict it, but we can try to anticipate, to explore the future and we can act on it. And if we want to go to toward a more desirable future, then we first need to imagine it. So the announcement we want to do today is that we are going to -- following this first event last year in December, we are going to launch a full program this year, starting in the upcoming weeks. And so we are going to share with you in the chat a link where you can find more information about this program. We will have multiple highlights, and even this year around the youth, around women, for example, and a lot of other content and material still feeding this positive vision but on data, on the good Foresight report and research. And so you will find more information on the link that we are sharing with you in the chart, and you will be able to subscribe to the upcoming news letter in order to keep posted about it. So it is just perfect today, we are exactly in the timing which we had anticipated. So it is nice. So I love to thank you all. First, of course, our speakers. Thank you, Marie. Thank you, Daria. Thank you, Paul-Louis. Thank you, Florence. It was a great pleasure discussing with you today. We sent of course, the audience, and I also would like to thank the people from the team that helped to prepare the webinar, especially [indiscernible] and also [ Eric ] and all the IT team that help us to do that. This webinar, we'll make sure to make the replay available for much more people. And thanks again for joining. We look forward to seeing you soon in the future.

Thank you, Olivier. Thank you all.