Axactor ASA (ACR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Axactor's second quarter presentation. Together with me, I have our CFO, Nina Mortensen, which will present the financials. The presentation will be divided into 4 parts. First, I will take you through the Q2 highlights, then Nina will go through the financial update before I present an updated outlook. As always, we will round off with a Q&A session. Let us move to Slide 3 and have a look at the highlights for the second quarter. Gross revenue declined marginally year-over-year by 2%. And the main reasons for the negative development are still the macroeconomic environment, the debt relief initiatives from the government, and the relatively moderate investment levels we had in 2023. However, cash EBITDA was up 3% year-over-year, reaching EUR 61 million, which is one of the highest, if not even the highest level in a single quarter for Axactor. Strict cost control in all markets offset declining gross revenue and inflation. EBITDA ended at EUR 30 million, down from EUR 33 million last year, but still at a very strong 51%. To my knowledge, 51% is one of the highest levels in the industry. The annualized return on equity was 4%. But like I said last quarter, the truth is that Axactor as most competitors is burdened with higher for longer interest rates and a challenging collection environment, putting pressure on profitability. Moving on to Slide 4, where you'll see that investment levels are going up at attractive prices in Q2. Last year, Axactor invested EUR 116 million, still above our replacement CapEx for 2023, but not contributing to meaningful growth. The low investment pace continued into first quarter, but in Q2, we successfully executed a planned shift in the investment level. In addition to the high amount in absolute terms, we consider the transactions to be done at attractive prices, which resulted in an improved total gross IRR on our back book. We have been able to improve our total gross back book IRR with 3 percentage points during the last 3 years, going from 15.7% in Q1 2021, up to 18.7% at the end of Q2 this year. We aim to gradually ramp up our investment levels and still expect to invest between EUR 100 million and EUR 200 million for the year. Let's move to the next slide for more details on the development in operating expenses. Axactor is facing increased cost pressure as everyone else in the industry. Salaries are going up. IT licenses are going up. Office rent is adjusted by the inflation, et cetera, et cetera. We have the ambition to keep the operating expenses at the same level in absolute terms year-over-year. This means that we need to initiate substantial cost measures to compensate for the unavoidable cost increases. I'm therefore very pleased to see that our operating expenses are down EUR 3 million or 11% year-over-year. The OpEx of 32% is the lowest level we have had in a single quarter and low OpEx is the key driver for the high cash EBITDA. But as we expect the cost pressure to continue, we constantly need to improve. Please move to the next slide for a couple of examples of new initiatives that will help us to reach our ambition on the costs also going forward. The first project I would like to mention is the site consolidation we are doing in Italy. The initiative is called Growth Italy and aims primarily to make us more equipped to handle the expected growth in the Italian debt collection market. For instance, we are planning to build up legal collection in Milan, where there is better access to necessary legal competence, and we are strengthening the amicable collection capacity in Sicily. Further, we are relocating the headquarter to Grosseto, and this will allow for realizing synergies from the CR service acquisition. Over time, we expect to be able to deliver top-line growth without increasing the cost base correspondent there. Another initiative is to change the IT infrastructure provider. After a comprehensive procurement process, Advania was chosen as a new partner. The new contract will reduce IT costs over time. The last point I will make before I leave the word to Nina is regarding interest rates. Please move to the next slide for more info and comment. This is not an area that we can really impact that much, except working with the capital structure in different ways to reduce the margins on our borrowing facilities. But I would still like to mention it as a potential decline in interest rates will really move the needle in terms of profitability if the interest rate forward curves materialize over the next couple of years. Currently, 95% of our interest-bearing debt is unhedged. But over time, as we do new investments, the share of hedging will gradually go up. With approximately EUR 950 million in net interest-bearing debt and 95% being unhedged. It is clear that a just 1 percentage point reduction in the interest rates will improve Axactor's cash flow and net financial results rather substantially and hence, also the return on equity. That is the good news. Unfortunately, this will take time and the effects in 2024 will be limited. Nina with that, I'll leave the word to you.

Thank you, Johnny. Before I start going through the Q2 numbers, I just want to highlight that as of 2024, Axactor no longer has any discontinued operations. All prior year figures presented are for continuing operations, unless otherwise stated. Gross revenue for the group ended 2% below Q2 2023. The decline in revenue was mainly a result of the challenging macro situation, government-imposed debt relief initiatives and the moderate investment level in 2023. NPL segment reported a negative growth of 3% this quarter. The decline was driven by the same reasons as just mentioned, for the decline in revenues at group level. On the more positive side, the 3PC segment delivered a growth of 2% in Q2. Excluding the 3PC businesses in Sweden and Finland that was closed during the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth was 8%. Let's look a bit more in the details on each of the business segments, starting with NPL on the next slide. Total income from the NPL segment ended at EUR 46 million in Q2, down from EUR 52 million in the second quarter of 2023, a decline of 12%. We continue to see a challenging collection environment during the quarter, especially in Norway and Germany. The overall collection performance ended at 93% for the quarter. Total income was negatively impacted by revaluations of EUR 4.6 million in the second quarter, combined with a slightly higher NPL amortization rate of 34%. We are pleased to see positive results this quarter from the ongoing cost improvement projects with an increase in the contribution margin of 2 percentage points from 76% up to 78%. Please turn to the next slide for comments on the development in the 3PC segment. The 3PC revenues ended at EUR 13 million for the quarter equal to a growth of 8% if we exclude Sweden and Finland, which was closed down last year. The uplift this quarter is driven by double-digit growth in both Spain and Norway. The contribution margin was 36% in the second quarter, up from 33% in the second quarter last year. The increase in margin was a result of healthy cost control and the exit of low-margin business in Sweden and Finland. We expect continued improvement in this business segment in the second half of this year, supported by new contracts. The Norwegian 3PC business is experiencing solid growth from new sales within the Banking and Finance segment. Focusing on this segment remains a strategic priority for Axactor. Let us move on to the next slide where I will present more details on the reported financials. Total income at group level ended at EUR 59 million in Q2, down from EUR 65 million in Q2 2023. The EBITDA margin rose to a healthy level of 51% due to strict cost control in all countries. Cash EBITDA ended at EUR 61 million for the quarter, a growth of 3% from Q2 2023. Moving on from reported cash EBITDA to summarize the financials for the quarter on the next slide. We achieved in Q2 an ROE level of 4% on a 12-month rolling basis. This ROE performance was impacted by external headwinds related to the macro environment and increased cost of funding. We are pleased to see benefits from our cost improvement project supporting a healthy underlying cash EBITDA and margin. We are also pleased to see that our 3PC strategy is working and to see a return to growth this quarter. I'll now hand it back to Johnny for some comments on the outlook.

Thank you so much, Nina. Regarding outlook. A lot has already been discussed during the presentation, but to summarize, we expect to experience a challenging collection environment during the whole of 2024. Further, we have very good cost control and expect to be able to absorb any cost inflation through OpEx reductions. As mentioned earlier, we expect only a modest reduction in cost of funding due to a potential interest rate decline in 2024, and we keep our investment target of EUR 100 million to EUR 200 million for the year. Finally, as of end Q2, we are compliant with all covenants. But given the limited headroom on leverage ratio and interest coverage ratio, we will pay close attention to these going forward. We are continuously working on mitigating actions. With that, we open up for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Jan Erik Gjerland with ABG.

First one, on the collection side, the 93% collection you mentioned in Norway and Germany. Could you shed some more light into other areas and how they are performing? Is it around 100%? Or is it just that Norway, Germany is so poor? That's my first question.

It's varies a bit. So if you start with Spain, we have both unsecured and secured. And I can say that the secured business is delivering more than 100% and unsecured a little bit less. For Italy, that has been steadily around 100% for a long period. It was a little bit lower in Q2, but it's also probably related to one of the elements I mentioned there under the project in Italy because we announced the close down of our current head office and we did that in Q2. So a little bit disturbance on operations, probably took it down a little bit. And in Sweden and Finland, it has been close to 100%, but that is, of course, on our active forecast. So compared to a regional business case below, but it's closer to 100% than the others.

Okay. Your ERC curve looks to been lifting upwards in this quarter. Which areas are bringing you there? Is it just a new investments? Or is it also that you changed your curve to move more forward on the cash side?

It's a combination, as you say, obviously, we have also changed the cure. We strive to have the most correct active forecast that we possibly can. And as you've seen, we have also taken revaluations in this quarter and also, we did the same in Q1. So that is changing the curves and moving some of the cash out in time. But it's also for Q4, for example, it's the normal seasonality that will also chip in. But then as you say, all the new portfolios that we will start up collection on now in the coming weeks and months will add to this as well.

Okay. Good. May I have 2 more. On the funding side, how much of your real funding is in NOK versus other currencies, so to speak? Because it looks like the Central Bank of Norway still have the higher for longer phase in their interest rate. While we have already seen that the ECB and others have sort of taken it down. So how much is in Norwegian krone funding, which is linked to Norwegian krone, and versus euro funding and other currencies you use in your sort of matching?

Yes, if you remember, we have one of the bonds is in euros. So we have approximately to EUR 300 million in one of the bonds. And the other bond that we placed last year is in NOK. In addition, we also have the RCF that is in Norwegian currency, mostly them now drawn in euro and SEK. So I think in total, we have a NOK exposure of around NOK 200 million, SEK 113 million, and remaining in euros out of the EUR 950 million, EUR 125 million that we had in net interest bearing debt.

Okay. Finally, on your future investments, you guide for EUR 100 million to EUR 200 million and at 8-inch. Normally, Q3 is sort of more quiet. So we should expect probably a softer one in the third quarter? Or do you have a nice pipeline that will help you already in Q3 and Q4 normally is a better one? So what kind of economic outlook is sort of given that you could get to the EUR 200 million mark rather than the EUR 100 million mark, so to speak, for the second half of this year? What will bring you? Is it the covenants you're looking at? Or is it just the gross IRR versus your expectations?

No, it has nothing to do with covenants. So this is important to understand. I also have seen some of the comments that there is a misunderstanding regarding covenant on how that limits investment because all investments that we did, for example, in Q2, they are accretive on covenants. They are accretive on ICR and they are accretive on leverage ratio. So there's absolutely no limitations due to the covenants on the investment side. But you're right, Q3 is normally a little bit slower. This year, we do have a pipeline, but it's a few deals. So it's kind of depending a lot on maybe 1, 2, or 3 deals in order to get to meaningful the investment level in Q3. But I'm not going to rule it out. It could be okay and it will not reach the same level as Q2, but it will certainly be, I think, better than Q1 where we had the level. But it's hard to say. But I would like to comment on Q4 pipeline because that is a solid one. So we do expect to be able to invest more than EUR 100 million. But given the uncertainty, and sometimes it depends on 1, 2, or 3 deals, we have chosen to stick to the rather broad investment range of EUR 100 million to EUR 200 million. We do understand there will be more precise when they come off with the Q3 numbers, I think.

[Operator Instructions] We now turn to Gustaf Larson with Arctic Securities.

I have a few questions here. The first one regarding the level of IRR you are investing at. I didn't see it in the presentation this quarter. Can you comment on the IRR levels on new investments and how you're reasoning between obtaining a high IRR versus an absolute investment volume?

We haven't given IRR for the quarter, but we have been giving it historically. And we have also given average of the total book now. So I think you can actually calculate it yourself. And then you will see that the gross IRR levels are, I would say, plus/minus 30. So it's a little bit less than what we had for last year when I think we touched a little bit higher. But we have also said that in order to increase the investments, we need to give some on the gross IRR, and that we have done. But still, we are able to invest at gross IRR that is substantially higher than our total back book. But it's clear that the more you want to invest, the more you win if you lower your gross IRR. And I think you can see that if you look at some of the competitors that are investing EUR 100 million, EUR 200 million a quarter, and you see what they report as gross IRR. You can see that in order to that amount, you need to lower your IRR much more than what we have been able to achieve in this quarter at least.

Regarding cash collections seem very strong, but portfolio amortization has changed quite drastically from the first quarter was 26% in Q1 and 34% this quarter. Can you explain what drives this difference and how it relates to the IRR on the portfolios.

Well, last year, we did more curve adjustments than we have done this year. So last year, we kind of pushed more of the cash collection out in time and taking down the amortization rate. And this year, it has been more on a long-term normalized level, I would say. So we don't push as much collection out in time as we did last year. And that's also why you will see more underperformance this year compared to last year.

Okay. On OpEx, it seems you have solid cost control here. Is this the level we should expect going forward? Or are you still seeing inflationary drivers or other factors we should take into account for 2024?

Well, as we say in the presentation, we expect inflation to continue kind of the cost increase pressure to continue, but we do have some initiatives to try to absorb it and our ambition, as we say in the presentation is that we will be able to absorb any cost inflation through cost reduction initiatives. And I think that at least for this year, let's see for next year, but that is still the ambition.

And last one for me, and I'm sorry if this was-- I think maybe this question was up in the last quarter. But if you stay below 95% collection performance, is there a risk of triggering a write-down on the portfolio?

So what is triggering a write-down of portfolio is if we are above or below our revaluation, it could be positive or negative, is if we are outside the parameters for our portfolio revelation. So this, you need to go through and see portfolio by portfolio to really give a good answer on. But of course, if you end at 95%, it's a higher risk that you have to do smaller adjustments on some portfolios than if you're at 100% on average. But you have to go through portfolio by portfolio. It's not automatically that you need to write down, even if you are at 95% on the performance for the say, the couple of last quarters when you enter the year-end.

We have no further questions on the conference call. We'll now address your written questions received on the webcast.

Very good. So then we have a few questions here. And I will start with the first one, it says what actions can you take to manage your tight headroom to covenant levels? And I think it will be basically the same as we did in for Q2. It's the most important thing to do is to be able to buy portfolios that are accretive on covenants ratios. But in addition, of course, we are fighting hard to keep the cash flow up, both on portfolio collection. And that goes also for 3PC, which is giving us a meaningful contribution on the result. And of course, to be very strict on cost control that will also help us when we do the covenant calculations. Those are the main activities or mitigating actions. Then we have a next one, how do you expect collection performance as a percentage for next quarter? Like I said, we always strive to have the correct curves. So by definition, that would be 100%. That is what we are aiming for. That's what we are striving to reach. And the next one is for Nina, if you want, I could read it, and then you could answer it. So it says you say acceptable benefit if interest rates comes down during the summer, 5-year euro swap rates has come down 50-60 bps to around 2.4%. How do you approach interest rate hedging going forward? And what are your reasoning for the current very low hedging ratio despite the possibility to lock in significantly lower forward rates.

Yes. I can let a little bit around the hedging strategy. Axactor has in place hedging strategy stating that we should aim to hedge 50% to 70% of the interest-bearing debt. We have, as also said here, we have not in place that many interest rate hedging at this point in time. We did have interest rate hedging that has expired. And also, as you can see from the presentation, we still have some coverage in the P&L from the old hedging instruments. And going forward, we have also stated before that we will hedge future acquisitions or future portfolios. We have the old back book that is bought at old interest levels. So going forward, we will hedge new portfolios. So in this quarter, where we then bought EUR 70 million in new portfolios. So we have also then entered into interest rate swaps of EUR 50 million, which is normally the gearing rate when they buy new portfolios. So going forward, we will continue to enter into new interest rate hedging in line with the buying new portfolios.

Thank you, Nina. And that is what we have. There are no more questions. So unless there are any more on the call.

We have no further questions.

Okay. I think that was it. And we wish all of you a great day. Thank you for attending.

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.