Axfood AB (publ) (AXFO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Audio Gap] which is intended to be viewed in conjunction with our prepared commentary. And we encourage you to follow along with that presentation. After our prepared commentary, we will be taking questions. A recording of the call will be made available on the Axfood website. And with that short introduction, I will now turn the conference call over to you, Klas. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Alex. And of course, let me also welcome you all to Axfood's Year-end Report 2020. Our agenda for today is displayed on Page #2 in the presentation. And first, I would like to talk about our recent developments in the market and then also give you a summary of the fourth quarter's performance for Axfood. We'll have Anders Lexmon here, and he will then go through the full year 2020 in terms of sales and operating profit, as well as give you an update on our financial position. I will then present to you our strategic agenda for 2021 and highlight some of our initiatives going forward. And we will conclude the presentation with an outlook for 2021 and after that, as normal, open up for questions. So let's start and please go to next page, Page #3. But before we go into the developments in the fourth quarter, for those of you who don't follow us on a daily basis, here comes just a quick reminder of who we are. We are a leading food retailer in Sweden with a clear house of brand strategy and a vision to be leading in good and sustainable food. In 2020, our sales amounted to almost SEK 54 billion, and we have more than 11,000 employees in the group. Together, we engage with approximately 4.5 million customers every week at more than 300 group-owned stores and online. Please now go to Page #4. I will now walk you through some of the recent developments in the food retail market. So please turn to Page #5. During the fourth quarter, the growth rate in the food retail market in Sweden remained on a high level, impacted by the changed shopping behaviors due to the ongoing pandemic. On a sequential basis, total growth accelerated compared to the third quarter due to increased regulatory restrictions. But also growth in the online segment was again exceptionally high and accelerated during the quarter. While demand within food retail in general remained high, the situation continued to be challenging within certain segments of the food retail market. Stores in central urban locations continue to struggle, and the cross-border trade towards Norway continued to suffer from the closed border, but also the service trade has been negatively affected in this period. During the fourth quarter, the restaurant market has continued to be negatively impacted by the imposed restrictions due to the pandemic. I'm sure you're all aware of that. Please now let's turn to Page #6. The chart on this slide shows the monthly growth rate year-on-year for the Swedish food retail market. And it is also adjusted for the calendar effect. And as you can see, growth has remained high also during the last few months of the year. And growth has even accelerated. Also this market performance is despite the lower level of food inflation compared to the first 9 months of the year. So it's a clear volume growth. If you then go to Page #7. The chart on this slide shows monthly growth rates year-on-year for the online segment. As you can see, online growth has been very high, most notable during the last couple of months in 2020, along with the tighter restrictions due to the pandemic. For the full year 2020, sales in the online channel accounted for almost 5% of total food retail sales, which is twice the penetration level we have seen in 2019. Please now move to Page #8. As you can see in this chart, growth online is considerably stronger for the Click and Collect alternative than for home delivery. Quite consistently, over the course of 2020, the growth rate of the Click and Collect option was approximately 3x as high as the growth rate for home deliveries. We can clearly see that this trend has continued also in the fourth quarter. In early 2020, sales through home deliveries accounted for slightly less than 2/3 of the total online sales, with a strong growth in Click and Collect throughout the year. And Click and Collect actually surpassed home deliveries in terms of sales split during the fourth quarter. Let's now turn to Page #9. And I would like now to take you through our performance during this quarter. So please go then to Page #10. In all, our store sales grew in line with the market in the fourth quarter. Total store sales for Axfood grew 7.4%, and this includes the negative headwind from Eurocash, which has hampered our growth with approximately 3 percentage points. If you then go to Page #11. And as you can see, online, we outperformed the market. Online growth for the market in the fourth quarter was at its highest level seen during 2020, reaching 136%. Now our growth was even higher at 157%. We have a very strong online offering, and we continue to develop our online presence and expand to more stores and locations. We have a solid position in the market. And during 2020, our online sales to consumers reached actually close to SEK 3 billion. Please move to Page #12. And before I walk you through the segments, I would like to comment on the group's overall sales development. Our consolidated net sales for Axfood grew by 4.6% during the fourth quarter, and it amounted to SEK 13.6 billion. In the quarter, the inflation rate was lower during the first 9 months, but volume growth remained then very strong. And Willys once again outperformed the market despite continued significant headwind, as you know, from Eurocash, our cross-border retailer. Hemköp was negatively impacted, again, by the continued weak performance in certain group-owned stores in our city centers. Snabbgross sales was negatively impacted by the continued difficult situation for the restaurant market. However, I must say Snabbgross' sales development was less negative than the development of the market as a whole. Please turn now to Page #13. I also would like to comment on our profit development in the quarter. Our group operating profit was significantly higher in the fourth quarter 2020 compared to the prior year period. We were up 16.1% to SEK 566 million, and profitability was also significantly better, and our operating margin amounted to 4.1%. This development is mainly due to the strong growth in our like-for-like sales, but also the increased operating profit supported by Dagab. However, the challenging situation for some of our business caused by the pandemic had a clear negative impact on our profit development. Please now move to Page #14. And turning now to the development of each segment, and let me then start with Willys. Again, a very strong quarter for Willys, with total sales growth of 8.5% and like-for-like growth of 6.7%. And once again, we grew faster than the market. And this high growth rate was achieved despite the negative impact from Eurocash that suffered then from sales declining nearly 80% in the quarter due to the cross-border travel restrictions. Throughout the year Willys had, had a high pace in modernizing and improving stores. And in total, more than 25 stores were refurbished. Our digital platforms and the overall digital customer meeting has also been improved. And new digital tools in the stores have been tested to further improve our customer experience. Our operating profit for Willys segment increased by 8.5% and amounted to SEK 339 million. The increase in operating profit can be explained by the strong like-for-like sales development in the stores, but then partially offset -- that partly offset the negative development of Eurocash. And also, we have some higher personnel costs associated with the strong online sales development that we are seeing at the moment. With that, please move to Page #15. And let me just give you a few comments about Willys. Willys is clearly making progress in attracting more and more loyal consumers. In 2020, Willys made the top 10 list of the most reputable companies in Sweden for the very first time. And actually, just this week, Willys also received their renewed license for the eco-label Good Environmental Choice or Bra Miljöval. Willys became the first grocery chain in Sweden to meet up with the new stricter standards valid as of this year in the Bra Miljöval. With that, please turn to Page #16. So let's focus now on Hemköp for a while. Store sales growth was similar in total and in like-for-like at 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively. And even though Hemköp has benefited from higher consumption of food at home, growth has been significantly hampered by the weak performance in certain Groupon stores in central urban locations. Throughout the pandemic, these stores have struggled as a result of low levels of customer traffic. And as you might recall, our group-owned Hemköp stores have a higher share of stores at central urban locations than our franchise stores. And this explains then why the group-owned stores are being negatively impacted to a larger extent. Also make a comment about Tempo, our Minimart franchise format, continue to show a very positive development also in the fourth quarter. The operating profit for Hemköp segment decreased year-on-year and amounted to SEK 53 million. The decline can be explained mainly by the negative development in the city center-based stores that I just mentioned. Let's now go to Page #17. And also here, let me give you a few comments about Hemköp and some of the highlights from the fourth quarter. In early October, Hemköp's new loyalty program, Klubb Hemköp, was introduced. And I must say I'm pleased to say that it has been a successful launch with a solid inflow of new customers and new members into this program. I also would like to highlight that Hemköp continued to maintain a high pace in the rollout of e-commerce. The number of Hemköp stores now offering sales online more than doubled in 2020. With that, please move now to Page #18. Let's turn now to Snabbgross. In the fourth quarter, Snabbgross sales declined by 6.3%, as the situation on the restaurant market deteriorated due to the increased restrictions. The sales decline accelerated actually, gradually throughout the fourth quarter. It is -- and I think important to say, it should be noted that Snabbgross once again outperformed the market and increased its customer base. But due to the negative development in our like-for-like sales, Snabbgross operating profit decreased in the quarter. Operating profit amounted to SEK 28 million, and the operating margin was 3.5%. Please now turn to Page #19. The major highlight for Snabbgross during this quarter was obviously the launch of the membership based program, Snabbgross Club. The brand-new store concept was opened in late November in Stockholm. Snabbgross Club offers consumers to shop for the same food products as restaurant and cafes. It is a truly attractive-priced assortment in bulk packaging. But even if I have to say it, of course, it's still early days. But so far, Snabbgross Club has been very well received by our new consumers. And I have to say, if you have not experienced Snabbgross Club, I can highly recommend a visit. Now let's move to our Dagab segment. So please continue to Page #20. And once again, Dagab is one of the most positive highlights that we summarize on our quarterly -- when we summarize our quarterly performance. Sales increased by 5.6%. And this development was clearly driven by strong sales to both Willys and Hemköp, but as well as positive development for Mat.se with further efficiency gains. The positive sales development was partially, though, offset by a negative impact from lower sales to Eurocash as well as to the service trade. And also the restaurant concept, Urban Deli, continued to experience a challenging situation due to the pandemic, which negatively impacted sales for the segment. In all, our operating profit for Dagab significantly increased, concluding a substantial improvement by 51.9% to SEK 230 million. And the operating margin was 1.9%, which is up from 1.3% in the fourth quarter last year. This nice development can be explained by Dagab sales growth and increased efficiency. Also, the capacity utilization was high and productivity and logistics has improved both for our stores and our e-commerce. Let's now move to Page #21. And just a comment regarding sustainability. As you know, we have an ambitious agenda. And some of our recent initiatives are highlighted on this slide. And every day, we strive to make it easier for the consumers to make sustainable choices. We do this by offering a broad assortment of products that are produced in a sustainable way. And with Hemköp's new loyalty program, Klubb Hemköp, we are actually first to reward sustainable choices that are positive for the climate as well as positive for people's health. And in December, a number of new targets were adopted for continued sustainable development of our operations. These include the target to achieve net zero emissions by 2030 and the target to reach a 30% share of sales of sustainable-labeled products by 2025. Please now turn to Page #22. And with that, I would like to hand over to our CFO, Mr. Anders Lexmon, who will present the financials for the full year 2020 as well as our financial position. So Anders, please go ahead.

Thank you very much, Klas. We are now on Page 23. Let me then first sum up the net sales for the full year. Net sales for the group increased with 5.8% despite weak sales in our business on the border to Norway, in our cash and carry business and in our business towards the convenience segment. It was mainly Willys' strong growth that contributed to the solid growth for the full year. Store sales for the Axfood Group increased by 8.7%, boosted by substantial higher online growth compared to last year. And it's clear that Axfood gained market share for the full year 2020. And then turn page to #24. The operating profit increased with SEK 222 million or 9.7%. And the operating margin increased from 4.5% last year to 4.7%. Key drivers behind the improved profit were strong overall like-for-like development and higher efficiency in the supply chain. These drivers compensated for the negative impact from the cross-border shopping, the weaker restaurant and convenience segment, and the impact from stores located in city centers and in shopping malls. Let's then turn please to Page 25. Looking at the cash flow for the full year, we continue to show higher operating profit compared to last year due to strong sales despite the challenges I mentioned before. We had some lower paid tax this year, mainly due to payment of a supplementary preliminary tax in 2019. We also saw a positive deviation of net working capital performance of SEK 830 million compared to last year. This is mainly explained by a strong development of accounts payable and a relatively weak net working capital performance last year due to a 2-day negative calendar effect. The lower investing activities this year is explained by lower CapEx in automation in our new logistics center in Balsta. In the first and third quarter, dividend #1 and 2 was paid out. The total dividend paid was SEK 7.25 per share compared to SEK 7 last year. Then please turn to Page 26. Total investments for the full year amounted to SEK 1,031 million and was, excluding investments in our new logistics center, in line with last year and 2018. The investments in our retail operation was up SEK 19 million, due to both higher pace in refurbishments and new establishments. The investments in our wholesale operation decreased with SEK 522 million, fully explained by lower investments in our new logistics center in Bålsta. The investments in our IT operation was up SEK 36 million, among other things due to investments in an SAP upgraded merchandising platform. Then go please to number -- Page #27. We have, in the fourth quarter, further decreased our net working capital compared to sales. For the full year, the net working capital decreased from minus 3% in 2019 to minus 3.4% this year. And during the year, we have continued to increase our payment terms for accounts payable, and we also managed to be more efficient in our inventory due to the strong like-for-like growth. Our supply chain financing program also helps us increase accounts payable. Then please turn to Page 28. Looking then at the development of net debt at the end of December. We, in fact, had a net receivable position of SEK 1,131 million if we exclude IFRS 16. That's the dark bar in the chart. The strong position at year-end is mainly explained by a strong operating cash flow and a strong development in net working capital for the full year. The net debt decreased also somewhat if we exclude -- sorry, include IFRS 16. The positive trend in the net debt/EBITDA ratio continued in Q4, a drop of 0.1 to 1.0. And the equity ratio was in line with last year, around 24% and well above our long-term goal of 20% at year-end. And then please go to Page #29. The capital employed increased with approximately SEK 500 million, mainly due to the strong profit for the full year. Return on capital employed continued to be on a very stable level between 24% and 25% and correspond to approximately 40% if we exclude IFRS 16. And then to sum up, we can conclude that Axfood continued to invest in the future and at the same time, have a strong cash flow and a solid financial position. And that ends up my part of the presentation, Klas. And thereby, I hand over to you again.

Thank you, Anders. And now I would like to conclude this part of our presentation to cover some of our strategic agenda. And also talk about some of the -- in that, talk about some of the initiatives that we have in terms of our priorities for 2021. And then I'll also end with an outlook. So please turn to Page #31. Now in order to become the market leader in good and sustainable food, we are pursuing a strategy of growth-promoting and efficiency-enhancing priorities. Some of you are already familiar with our way of working with -- where we have clear -- 6 clear strategic focus areas. These are the areas of customer offering, customer meeting, expansion, supply chain, work approach and our most important asset, our people. So as it is the beginning of the year, let me now quickly walk you through them one by one. First up is our customer offering. So please turn to Page #32. We offer our customers an attractive, efficient and wide and affordable assortment. Our main focus this year in 2021 is to continue to develop and strengthening the assortment as well as develop new customer offerings. Price value continue to be important for today's consumers, and we will, therefore, focusing on strengthening our price position for all our concepts. Please turn now to Page #33. So moving then to customer meeting. Through our brands and formats, we'll meet our customers' various needs, no matter where, when and how the customer meets us. It is obvious that the pandemic has accelerated digitalization in the society, and we will, therefore, continue to strengthening the way we meet our customers on our digital platforms. Providing the best possible customer meeting also in stores is equally important. And that is why one of our focus areas is about further modernizing our store network. And finally, another key priority for 2021 is to develop the sustainability positions for each of our brands. With that, please go to Page #34. And this slide shows our priorities in terms of expansion. We will grow in new and existing markets by establishing stores and developing new segments, categories and services. And in addition to adding new stores, we will expand also online. Another priority in 2021 is to continue the establishment of our new store concept, Snabbgross Club, and use the learnings that we are now receiving to further improve our offering. Let's now continue to our fourth strategic focus area, our supply chain. So please turn to Page #35. In 2021, we will continue to focus on developing our new highly automated logistical center in Bålsta. Installation of the automation will begin this year, which is obviously an exciting pace. One of our key priorities in 2021 is to increase and further increase the degree of data-driven analysis and decisions. Moving now to Page #37 and our -- and going to the final strategic focus area, which is then our most important asset, our employees. And during 2021, we will continue to focus on further developing our culture, our leadership, as well as our competence. That was a quick introduction to some of our strategic priorities in 2021. So let's now move to Page 38. And with that, I would like to turn into the outlook for 2021. So please turn to the next page again, to Page #39. And before I comment on the outlook, just a few comments on the year ahead. It is obviously very difficult to assess all the implications stemming from the pandemic. But I think we can conclude that we will live with uncertainty during a significant part of this year as well. As long as the situation remains, we will -- we believe there will be a positive effect on the consumption within food retail, although there will be variance between different segments of the market and consequently, a negative effect on demand within the restaurant market. However, the food retail market face very high comps in 2021 with hoarding and overall higher consumption that we have seen in this year 2020. Please, let's now move to the next page, Page 40. So now some comments on our outlook for 2021. We plan for capital expenditures in the range of SEK 1.8 billion to SEK 1.9 billion. This is more or less in line with last year, but in addition, it includes an investment of SEK 585 million in the automation solution for our new logistical center in Bålsta, as well as SEK 150 million investment in land in connection with the facility to secure further expansion possibilities. And in terms of store expansion, we see more room to grow, and we plan to establish 5 to 10 new stores during this year. And we also continue with the online rollout and add more stores and locations for our e-commerce to our consumers. Please now turn to the next page, Page #41. Here, we'll move into the dividend for 2020, and the Board of Directors will propose to the AGM an increase in the dividend to SEK 7.50 per share, and the dividend will be split into -- as last year, two equal payments, one in March and one in September. The dividend proposal corresponds to 82% of our profit after tax, which is well in line with our dividend policy. With that, please turn to the final page of this presentation, Page #42. Let me summarize. The fourth quarter marked a strong finish to the year for Axfood. Our strong growth was once again driven by Willys, that is strengthening its position on the Swedish food retail market. And with the positive growth and higher efficiencies in our operations, our profit and profitability has increased. And looking ahead, I like to say we have a very strong position, but we also recognize that the market ahead is difficult to predict. Our financial position is strong, and the activity level that we have right now in the organization is very high, with sights set on the long term. And with that, I please ask you to turn to the next page, Page 43, and I hand over to the operator to open up the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Daniel Schmidt from Danske Bank.

Klas, Anders and Alexander. I hope you can hear me. A couple of questions from me. First of all, if you look at Dagab's performance in these past 2 quarters, they seem to reach sort of a different level now in terms of profitability. Could you give -- shed some more light on that when it comes to -- you talk about fulfillment efficiency, sort of how sustainable do you think this level of profitability is going into '21?

Yes. Daniel, no, I think you're right. And I think what I didn't really mention in the presentation is that we're also very pleased with the way we have been able to build up the service levels and the productivity during this period. As you may recall, we were challenged in the spring, and we've been able to bring up that level in a good way, which means also when we get this volume into Dagab and when we can run it in a very smooth operation, we are really taking out productivity out of it. So that has been one effect. So volume. And when we are able to reach good service levels, we are getting some of these effects out of this -- out of the logistical operations. The other part, which we have mentioned, is if you look at previous years, we invested a lot in our e-commerce and our dark store facilities. And we continuously work now to improve our productivity and efficiencies in these areas. And we've also seen some positive results out of that during this fall.

But can you say anything more specific on that? Because I guess it's still sort of manual packing and picking and the pressure on the growth in the online business has been, of course, overwhelming, and you seem to be coping quite well still.

No, you're right. But I also think that we have now for some time. Obviously, it is when you have these high peaks and strong demand that come suddenly, of course, we are doing as good as we can. And I think we've been able to handle it somewhat better, at least, versus the spring. But we're also adding -- even if it's still a manual facility, we are adding more technique into it in terms of how we can pick the products, how we can make it more efficient and so on. And the team out in the dark stores are learning and adopting (sic) [ adapting ], and we are -- we have seen a positive effect out of that. As you know, it is still a challenging operation and a costly one.

Yes. But it does sound like you're entering '21 with a higher efficiency than you entered 2020, at least.

Yes. That is fair. But it's also fair to say that when you are -- as you -- right now, we are, call it, in some of our facilities in the end-of-life cycle. And of course, that when you're getting these kind of volumes, you're getting the efficiency out of it. So it is also very much volume-driven.

Yes. And when we talk about online, everyone, including you guys, have said, of course, that online is loss-making, but Click and Collect is maybe not that far off. And now you've had tremendous growth in Click and Collect. Has that brought you closer to breakeven in that business?

We're taking clear steps in that. And we are, obviously, if you look at the Click and Collect, and I think it's interesting to see, as we talked about it in the report as well. If you look at the total market, but also for us, that consumers right now seems to prefer the Click and Collect option, which is positive in that way that we are not having the transports. So you are -- it is a better model for us. So in that perspective, it is obviously positive. It is also very much interesting to see how we can adapt and we can improve that with -- together with the consumers and open up more slot times. We have, as you may have seen for Willys, we are adapting and testing new places to have the pickups even outside the stores and not even close to the stores. So it is a continuous development. But obviously, you're right that the more Click and Collect, the better that is in terms of efficiency.

Yes. Yes. And then a second question on price value, which everyone in the market seems to be pushing, is this trend accelerating going into '21, do you think, is that your impression? And how would that impact your business, you think?

I think we've always seen a competitive market. For us, as I've stated so many times, our most important key ratios is to make sure that we are price competitive in the market. As you know, Willys has its clear mission in that as well. So we'll continue on that track and as before.

But do you feel that the market is moving even stronger towards price value among sort of focus among consumers and sort of is that playing even more in your home turf, so to speak, when you look at Willys?

I think, overall, price value or call it low price concepts are gaining share,it's not only in the food but in the overall retail market. And we clearly see that as well in food retail, that price is important. And obviously, we are happy to have Willys, who is performing really well. And obviously, that is a clear evidence of -- that consumers appreciate value in the market. If you look at the sales performance in Willys, if you take that segment, but then, of course, that is including Eurocash that we have more or less a full stop in. So you can see that when you make that calculation that Willys is, for sure, outperforming the market.

Absolutely. Absolutely. I was just maybe sort of looking into '21 more, but we'll see what happens. Just finally, if i may question. Are you in any way sort of planning to return to nonmanned stores?

Daniel, you are disappearing from us now. Take that again, please.

Are you in any way stipulating, testing nonmanned stores in '21, without personnel?

I think I captured -- you were lost there for a while. But if I heard you right, if we are testing stores without staff, is that what you're saying?

Exactly. Contemplating?

Yes. We are following that, and we're also actually delivering to some of these concepts, and we are at this stage following it only.

Our next question comes from Gustav Hagéus from SEB.

Good morning, guys. Starting off with the comp that you mentioned is quite tough on the volume side from the pandemic, but you're obviously starting to comp the pandemic volumes also from sort of a margin perspective. And I'm curious to get your view on if you see that sort of the comp in terms of competitive environment, pricing, marketing, campaigning, et cetera, was an easy one last year compared to this year? I guess most of your peers and your own focus, at least in the beginning of the pandemic, was to sort of keep the shelves full rather than take market share and so forth. So a bit interested in hearing what you think there. Thanks.

It obviously, Gustav, it's obviously difficult for me to predict what everyone in the market will do. But I think we have seen high activities, but you are right that at part of this, particularly when we had the hoarding and all of that, they were more focused on just make secure in that we could meet the new demand. So in that perspective, obviously, there were -- it's probably somewhat less campaigns, but that has then moved into a normal market, in my view, as of the summer and this period as well. So I'm not sure that it will be any large differences, and same as the comment as Daniel was into in terms of the pricing and the activities, there is no really big changes, at this stage at least.

Okay. And turning to your CapEx guidance. It was a little bit higher number than we had here, at least initially or internally. But when I look at the CapEx figure for 2021, do you think it's prudent to see that as a plateau or a peak or a baseline going forward?

Well, I think you can look at it in two ways. One, obviously, we -- if you look at year on year on year, we continue to grow. That means that we also continue to invest and we are modernizing more stores than ever. We are adding e-commerce to more stores than ever and so forth. So that is part of it. But we're also, obviously, investing a lot in our IT platforms, we are now upgrading our cashier and payment platforms, et cetera. So obviously, the larger we become, of course, that also adds to it. But if you look at this year, clearly, we've highlighted some of it that is not normal, so to speak, which is related to the automation program that we have, and also we bought the separate land for this year. And going forward, we've been very clear in terms of how we are investing in the logistics and how that will evolve as we move along. But I think we're also clear, we are seeing opportunities in the market in terms of strengthening our concept, strengthening our digital tools. And we see positive effect of that. We also see that we can continue to invest both in stores and logistics to become further efficient, and we're using new tools and CapEx to do that. So we'll continue to invest in Axfood going forward and mainly in -- particularly mainly in logistics as well.

All right. And relating to your automated warehouse, which is a big chunk of that CapEx. My understanding is that, that does not cover really South or Southwestern parts of Sweden. So is it unreasonable to assume that there are some early-stage ideas internally within Axfood of potentially doing another run of consolidating warehouses in that part of Sweden too, once you get your footings firm on this ongoing project?

We have a little bit different structure south of it. As we know, we have the large facility in Backa and as I comment, I don't see that we are making another. Now we have full focus now on Bålsta and we are not making another Bålsta in Backa at this stage at least. But we are -- and we are obviously looking into how can we, with that structure, look into how can we become even more efficient in that area as well. So obviously, that is an ongoing plan, and we'll continue to work on that as well.

Okay. And lastly for me, you mentioned that Click and Collect is obviously developing very favorably compared to home delivery. But could you give some granularity on the trends in more urban settings such as downtown Stockholm? Is the trend the same there or is it more home delivery? And if you could talk a little bit about the ratio, Click and Collect versus Home Delivery in urban settings.

In urban. I have to come back on that. I don't sit on that data myself at the moment. But obviously, if you look at the total market that is now, when we have surpassed the 50-50 share for Click and Collect versus home deliveries, then, of course, which is fair to say, in particularly Stockholm, Gothenburg, we have some pure players that is only focusing on home deliveries. So it obviously is, I'm sure, fair to say that home deliveries has a larger portion in these areas.

Our next question comes from Niklas Ekman from Carnegie.

A couple of questions, if I may. Firstly, and I realize this is a bit hypothetical, but can you make an attempt at estimating the net earnings impact from COVID in 2020? There's obviously been a lot of moving parts, with strong volumes, on the other hand, of all the stores and foodservice negative, but still your group earnings grew 10%. So I'm just wondering whether you think that number would have been higher or lower, excluding COVID?

Niklas, a very valid and good question. But obviously, it is, as yourself point out, it is difficult to say. We -- because, of course, what should you measure against is what would have the growth been if we wouldn't have pandemic and how would we be successful in some of our chains. That is the uncertain factor, so to speak. But I have to say that if you look at -- when we look at our situation, I'm sure that as the rest of the market, we have gained from increased volume. But in our part, we've also had some clear challenges, as I mentioned them and if I repeat them, the -- some of the Hemköp stores has been struggling with significantly traffic drop. The Eurocash, obviously, is a large loss-making at the moment. And also Snabbgross, as you've seen as well, with the cafe and restaurants. So where exactly that mix would come out on, obviously depends on what would have been the base when we -- if we wouldn't have had the pandemic, and that is difficult to say.

Okay. Fair enough. And on the topic of Eurocash, obviously, Norway now has made significant tax cuts on alcohol, tobacco, candy and soft drinks. I assume this could have a tangible impact as the market normalizes post COVID. Do you fear that volumes will be significantly impacted relative to the 2019 level as a result of this? Or do you think Norwegians will still go across border?

Yes. I mean if you look at it now, we'll see what happens. But as it is right now, at least, it is still a very positive way for the Norwegians to come and shop in Sweden compared to the pricing even after the tax reduction. So it is still favorable. We should recall, it's not that long ago then the taxes increased. I think it was a couple of years ago. And before that period, we had a very good border trade. We still have a very strong, both comfort and interest, in the border shopping. And we think that will continue to be positive when we finally get the borders to open up again. As you may have seen in this period, we have even invested in additional stores in Långflon.

Very good. Also curious, these investments in the new fulfillment center, how much remaining investments do you have in 2022?

We've outlined that fairly clearly earlier. Maybe, Anders, I don't know if you have it on top of your mind or if you go back to...

Unfortunately, not. We can come back to you, Niklas, with that.

You'll have a similar amount as in 2021.

I will be -- I think without -- we are now throwing out the number. We have clearly outlined that when we made -- when we announced the EUR 240 million. So it is in there. But we can come back to you how it looks year by year.

Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And also, can you remind us when will this new fulfillment center be fully operational? Are you going to start already in '21? Or is this '22...

'23. So '23 is when we are planning to roll it up and get it into full operation end of 2023.

Our next question comes from Magnus Raman from Kepler Cheuvreux.

I'll just tie into -- there's been a lot of questions already, so I'll just tie into those a bit. On Dagab here and efficiencies, and there's been questions about the stickiness in 2021 and going forward. But if we lift the view a bit and then look into this 2023 when you will commence Balsta operations, is it fair to assume that we'll see efficiencies on a whole other level when you start with sizable volumes in Bålsta the first month?

Yes, Magnus. No, but we -- and I think we've been very clear on that. Of course, when we are automizing both online and stores at one place, we have done that because we have a very solid business case behind it. And we've been clear that the logistical cost, when we announce that at that time, will be the same or better when we go in full operation. Then in addition, we have capacity to increase volume significantly. And of course, with the volume, it will support our efficiency even further.

Great. And then on online, you mentioned here, of course, and it was discussed many times the stronger Click and Collect growth compared to home delivery. But I have 2 questions regarding this. Is this an evolution that you expect and planned for ahead or are you expanding capabilities when it comes to home delivery? And maybe that also ties into the Bålsta capacity there. And then in terms of profitability opportunities for pure home delivery sales, could you give any color on the profitability evolution for Mat.se during this year with very strong online volumes.

Yes. And we -- I mean, the same for us when we look at online is that we are following clearly the market. As we said, we -- I got that question a thousand times in terms of how large will the online segment be? And I think it's a very difficult question to answer. Now we've seen a jump into it. We'll see how that evolves as we move along. So we also invest in home delivery, obviously, but we are now looking at the consumers are also preferring Click and Collect at this stage. And obviously, if you look at that, that is -- there is a benefit for the consumers related to that in several areas. So -- but to answer your question, we are moving into both of these segments, so to speak. And if you look at Mat.se, and as I mentioned, related, they are reported in Dagab. And as I mentioned, we have improved the efficiency for the dark store operation, which obviously then has benefited Mat.se as well, since they are becoming more efficient and also growing.

Okay. But just to make that even more a bit granular, would you -- would you expect the possibility to reach profitability in the Mat.se...

On home deliveries, you mean, for Mat.se...

Yes. Because that is only home delivery side, I presume.

Okay, I misunderstood you, sorry. No, we are still on a journey there, and there's still some way to go, if I say it like that. So there's some way to go before we are profitable on Mat.se.

Right. Okay. And then on price inflation. And you mentioned that price leading concepts are gaining momentum in the market and you also mentioned lower food price inflation in Q4. Is it fair to assume that this number shows that price activity in markets has come up, would you say?

I think there are many variables in that. We had -- obviously, it's an inflation in terms of there are other areas that is influencing the inflation in terms of raw material and so forth. And so we've seen a lower level out of that at this stage versus we saw particularly in the beginning of the year. So I would not necessarily relate it to campaigns, it's more of the inflow.

Right. Okay. That's clear. And then just finally on expansion. In the presentation here, you say that you will grow in new and existing markets. What do you mean by new market [indiscernible].

Yes. I'm glad you pointed that one out. I'm not looking into going for international expansion, if anyone would think that was the case. But obviously, we still have, so to speak, white spaces in Sweden that we want to move into. So it was more related into that rather than anything else. We are still sticking our plans in the Swedish market.

Yes, that's good. I presumed, but I just wanted you to...

I'm happy that you asked the question, so we could clear that one out. I think if I'm rightly informed, there is no further questions. So with that, I would like to conclude and thank you for your questions, and thanks for listening in. And hope you have a great day. Just a reminder of our first quarter for 2021 will be presented April 21. So hopefully, see you then. Thank you.