Axiata Group Berhad (AXIATA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 28, 2024

KLSE MY Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services earnings 60 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Okay. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Clare Chin, Head of Investor Relations at Axiata Group Berhad. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Axiata's third quarter results briefing. Today, we have present with us Vivek Sood, Group CEO; as well as Nik Rizal Kamil, group CFO, as well as representatives from our operating companies. There will be a short presentation followed by a Q&A session. Without further ado, I would like to hand over the conference to Vivek.

Vivek Sood

executive
#2

Thank you, Clare. A very good afternoon to all of you. Welcome to the quarter 3, 2024 earnings call. Quarter 3 has been a busy quarter for the group. I think we saw some, some activities in Bangladesh, for example, with the social unrest as well as the Internet shutdown and then we've seen some softness in the markets specifically Indonesia. But in general, from an overall performance standpoint, we are quite positive with the outcome, and that's coming essentially on the back of strong OpEx, CapEx discipline across the group and also our ability to manage the balance sheet. Our leverage for the quarter is down to 2.59 net debt to EBITDA, from 3.36, which was at the beginning of the year, and that's coming both from the update on some of the debt at the group level as well as improved EBITDA performance for the year so far. As you recall, in last year's investor conference, we did talk about our 5-by-5 strategy and that was really focused on the 5 portfolio of vectors as well as the 5 key strategic priorities. Some of them are falling in place. Our merger, which was announced in June, between Dialog and Airtel, I think is executed by the Sri Lankan team in a very positive manner. I think we are getting the integration ahead of what was originally planned. The delayering exercise, which was essentially creating Link Net as a Fibre Co and moving the customers into XL to provide fixed mobile conversed of is being done. Now Link Net is pretty much the second largest platform for fiber wholesale provision and XL continues to provide a fixed mobile conversed offer. We are also progressing well on the Indonesian mobile consolidation. Nothing is certain. Yes, in the midst of negotiations as well preparing the definitive agreements, but nothing certain, and in due course of time, when we complete, we would be announcing the outcome. As I said, the OpEx and CapEx discipline is actually driving strong EBIT growth for us. Quarter 3, year-to-date, we've seen a 37.7% improvement on earnings before interest and tax. As you recall, EBIT has been one of the KPIs we've been tracking for the year. If I go to the next slide, just a quick summary of performance across all the second [ year ]. All the -- the overall summary, and then I'll cover a little bit around all the OpCos before I hand over to Nik to go into detail. Year-to-date PATAMI grew by -- hit at MYR 1.1 billion coming out of strong operational performance as well as the gains coming from ForEx, as you know. At the end of September ringgit was quite strong, and that helped in terms of the ForEx gains coming for us. We also had the buyback of bonds under the EMTN 30-year bond, carried out, which did give us ability to pay down some debt as well as some gain coming out of the opportunity, which we could monetize. And of course, shares of new reserves from associates also gave us the advantage. On an underlying basis, I think the profits have been fairly strong at MYR 551 million, which is around 3.6x of what it was same period last year coming out of, of course, growth. But as I said earlier, out of coming from the well management of OpEx and CapEx during the year, and that basically translates into strong profit numbers of MYR 551 million on a normalized basis, and that excludes the impact of ForEx as well as the EMTN bonds redemption [indiscernible]. EBITDA as well as CapEx control did gave us a very strong cash flows of nearly MYR 2 billion. This is adjusted operating free cash flow, which is basically after leases, how you on leases. And the impact excludes the dividend which we received from MYR 408 million from CelcomDigi during the 3 quarters. So a very strong cash flow. A very strong profit performance, and that all resulting in a strong balance sheet at 2.59x net debt to EBITDA, which is fairly comfortable. And overall, liquidity has been very strong, not at the group -- not only at the group level, but also at the operating company level. As we guided earlier in the year, and we did talk about that in the previous quarter, we maintained the position of revenue in line with the KPIs, EBIT growth ahead of KPIs. Having said that, I think the headwinds on some of the markets, specifically driven from macro environment, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh still remains, and we are conscious of those facts. CapEx, we guided earlier, MYR 6.1 billion. I think we would be below that guidance for the full year. Sorry. So let's go through individual OpCo. I think CDB, you would have seen the results of CelcomDigi. I think dividend has been in line with our expectations. Synergies are pretty much on target and then coming out of savings as well as increased productivity. Having said that, the market competition remains quite intense in Malaysia. XL last quarter was softer coming out of heightened competition in the market. We've also seen ARPU improvement there, but last quarter was a little bit of a dip in the ARPUs coming out of the increased competition. Having said that, I think the company continues to focus on driving cost saving, which is delivering EBITDA, double-digit growth and EBIT double-digit growth. And PATAMI at MYR 1.3 billion, which is around 30% higher than what was it same period last year. Robi, I think the effect of social unrest, Internet shutdown and floods did have a negative influence on the revenue for the quarter. However, on a year-to-date basis, they're still positive. But their efforts around the optimization of CapEx adjusting to the reality in the market as well as managing their OpEx well continues to deliver a very strong profit development in 3 quarters of around MYR 4 billion which is substantially higher than what was the profit delivered by Robi in the same period last year. Dialog, as I said earlier, I think progressing well on the integration with Airtel and the revenues be down basically coming from the decision to defocus on low-margin hubbing business, but a quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue, which is having positive development, EBITDA remains stable. Company continues to focus on cost rescaling, but EBIT impacted by higher D&A, partly because of the integration of the two companies as well as the impact coming from relatively lower ForEx gain related compared to last year and a recognition of deferred tax liability. Also the fact that some of the -- to keep the balance sheet in control some of the debt, which was a dollar debt has been moved to local debt, which is at a much higher cost of borrowing. Smart continues to be a star performer with very strong delivery of profit and cash flows. And this is coming on the back of strong ARPU development in the market and also the fact that the cost controls continue to be playing an important role in profit growth of [ netting ] 30%. Link Net, I think, is -- we're still settling down with the reorganization of the focus of Link Net as a FibreCo. As I said earlier, the customers have all been transferred to XL so which means Link Net is essentially a FibreCo some enterprise business and some media business, which is there. And it is -- continues to build home passes for XL and also looking at other opportunities outside with other ISPs. The impact also on profit with one-off taxes coming because of the gains, while the gains are not reflected in P&L, but the gain has an impact on the tax liability, which was accounted for in quarter 3. EDOTCO I think continues to focus on colocations, colos, which we've been building very well for the company, resulting in strong revenue growth and coming from the key markets, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Cambodia. Cost management continues to keep the EBITDA margins, EBIT growth strong, and profit lift uplift also partly coming out of ForEx gain, but offset to some extent by higher net financing costs and taxation. I guess as the interest rate starts coming down, we will see the positive effect of the overall operational development. Boost, I think the launch of the bank in June. We are seeing a good development on the bank front with a strong customer uptake as well as the loan -- the deposit book, which is being built. The growth on revenue has been strong. However, costs are getting the upfront early cost of Boost Bank as what has been impacting the overall numbers. Despite that, the bank -- the Boost continues to reduce their losses, excluding the start-up cost of Boost Bank. ADA, extremely strong performance with the two verticals, which is customer engagement as well as the e-commerce enablement are the two strong verticals, delivering growth coming at around 18.8% year-to-date revenue growth as well as strong recovery with profits greater than 100% at around MYR 36 million for year-to-date. Overall, in summary, I think up and down but broadly speaking, while softer on the revenue front relative to the previous quarters. I think management of OpEx, CapEx as well as capital balance sheet has shown a very strong performance coming in, in the quarter and year-to-date for us. With that, I'll just hand over to Nik to take you through more details around the financial numbers here. Thank you.

Rizal Bin Nik Ibrahim Kamil

executive
#3

Okay. Thank you, Vivek bhai. As-Salaam-Alaikum and good afternoon, everyone. I will go through the next few slides on the results. Firstly, on this slide is our reported results for the 9 months of 2024. On a reported basis, on the top left, our revenue was up 3.3% on a year-to-date basis. Due to strong contribution from all OpCos with the exception of Link Net, Dialog and Robi. Although Robi was mainly due to ForEx translation on a local currency basis, they actually grew on a year-to-date basis. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue declined by 7.5% though, which is mainly due to the lower revenue in XL on the back of softer quarter-on-quarter momentum in Indonesia. And also at Robi due to the social unrest leading to the Internet shutdown in the month of July and also the several incidences of major flooding that happened during the quarter. On EBITDA and EBIT, we continue to see double-digit growth, largely contributed by strong performance from all OpCos, with the exception of Link Net. EBITDA grew on a year-to-date basis by 14.6% on the back of higher revenue and lower costs, whilst EBIT grew growth of 37.7% was despite higher depreciation arising from Link Net's transition to FibreCo and also the Dialog and Airtel merger. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, EBITDA was lower by 6.7% and EBIT was lower by 13.8%, due to the impact of lower revenues quarter-on-quarter despite lower cost and also depreciation figures. On the PATAMI, reported PATAMI level, showed improve -- significant improvements to MYR 1.1 billion for year-to-date 2024. And this was largely driven by higher revenue, higher share of results from associates. Higher financing capital gain from the early partial redemption of the EMTN papers amounting to approximately MYR 306 million. But also on a year-to-date 2024 basis, we had ForEx gains compared to ForEx losses for the same corresponding period last year. So year-to-date 2024, we recorded a gain of MYR 432 million, compared to loss for year-to-date 2023 of MYR 261 million. On the next slide, which is on underlying performance. On a constant currency basis, year-to-date revenue grew by 3.4%, supported by growth from all OpCos, except for Link Net and Dialog. The key drivers there in XL grew by 6.3%, driven by increased data and digital services on the back of increased ARPU. EDOTCO grew 8.7%, primarily from Malaysia and Bangladesh. On a quarter-on-quarter basis lower, revenue on a constant currency declined 3.4%, mainly due to XL, due to the softer industry momentum quarter-on-quarter and also Robi due to the countrywide Internet shutdown and floods. Year-to-date EBIT reported a strong growth of 38.9% to MYR 2.6 billion on an underlying basis, mainly driven by XL, which grew by 22.1% from revenue growth and from higher ARPU and stable costs. Robi grew 35.7% from higher revenue and reduction in operating costs. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, though, EBIT was down 8.2%, mainly in XL and also in Smart, mainly due to revenue and higher operating costs, respectively. On a year-to-date PATAMI grew by more than 100% to MYR 551 million due to EDOTCO from revenue growth and also Smart from EBIT flow-through, offset by higher depreciation and amortization and taxation. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, UPATAMI grew by 18.4% to MYR 205 million, mainly from Dialog from flow-through of revenue, which includes Airtel from quarter 3, 2024 and lower net finance costs and also EDOTCO, which was lifted by lower depreciation charges. On the next slide, adjusted OFCF. Adjusted OFCF increased by more than 100% to MYR 1.94 billion due mainly to the EBITDA increase of 14.6% or MYR 1.04 billion. There was also CapEx optimization at OpCos, especially at XL, Robi and EDOTCO. And there was also lower interest cost of MYR 220 million, mainly through the large -- largely due to the onetime benefit from partial early redemption of the EMTN. This was offset by higher taxation growth due to the higher profits in XL and Robi and also the one-off impact from the delayering exercise at Link Net in quarter 3. On an OpCos basis, as you can see, all OpCos added a Link Net made positive contributions to the AOFCF year-to-date movement. In the next slide, on the balance sheet. We continue to work on reducing our net debt-to-EBITDA level where we ended quarter 3, 2024 at 2.59x, compared to 3.36x at the end of quarter 4 2023. This was on the back of a reduction in borrowings and leases as well as EBITDA growth of 14.6%. The total borrowings as at quarter 3, 2024 stood at MYR 22.2 billion, which is a MYR 2.6 billion reduction from 2023 figure. The reduction was on the back of the partial early redemption of EMTN at OpCo level as well as benefits of a stronger ringgit Malaysia at the end of quarter 3, which helped with the translation of the U.S. loan balances at the end of the quarter. HoldCo cash has -- however, has gone down from MYR 1.3 billion at the end of last quarter, quarter 2 '24 to MYR 434 million at the end of quarter 3, where the main use of the funds was to partially redeem the EMTN during the quarter. And also for the early repayment of the MCTL loan facility of approximately USD 50 million. On the next slide, still on balance sheet. We continue to reduce our exposure to interest rate volatility and have increased our fixed rate borrowings to -- from 56% in quarter 2, to now 69% as at end of quarter 3. This was mainly at Axiata due to the early partial redemption of the EMTN, but also at Dialog. There's also a further positive impact from the strengthening of ringgit to the U.S. dollar recently, where -- whilst this has happened towards the end or throughout quarter 3. The group continually looks at how we can reduce our ForEx volatility exposure on our net debt. And as end of quarter 3, 2024, we have increased our hedge debt position to 44% at the end of quarter 3 in comparison to 35% at the end of the previous quarter, quarter 2. On our group debt, it has an average tenure of 6.4 years, whereby short-term debt maturity over the next 2 years is 19% and for HoldCo, it's 12%. With that, I'll come to the end of my segment, and I'll pass it over back to Vivek.

Vivek Sood

executive
#4

Thank you, Nik. Just a quick update on the headline KPI, I think, which I covered earlier. These were our KPI, and we think we will be in line with what we said for revenue. We will exceed on EBIT and CapEx would be below what we had indicated at the beginning of the year, which was MYR 6.1 billion. What are the key corporate actions which we are undergoing? We've talked about the merger in Indonesia. I think as you can see, in May, we did sign the nonbinding memorandum of understanding to explore a final due diligence process as well as negotiation of a definitive agreement are underway. As I said earlier, there's nothing certain there, but progressing in the right direction. Delayering of Indonesia, we did that, as I said earlier, that customers will transfer the post approval of the regulator end of September. And these customers are now being provided converged offer in XL and Link Net is now focusing on being a FibreCo. Our consolidation in Sri Lanka underway. Our implementation of the integration is ahead of what was originally scheduled, and that should result in us getting the synergies ahead of what was originally communicated. EDOTCO exit from Myanmar is still pending regulatory approval. We understand it's now at the final stages. However, given the uncertainties, we can't talk about how long will it get this regulatory approval. Risks. I think Bangladesh is still trying to settle down from the new regime coming in place. I think the initial discussions have been positive. I think the new government is looking at significant reforms, which should have a positive long-term impact on government given the macro situation, we're seeing some pressures on affordability and the buying power of the people in that country. Fiber in Indonesia, while Link Net looks like a good opportunity, but would require funding. I think that's something which we would not be putting that. I think we would probably look at external funding to support that. Volatility, competitive landscape in Indonesia and Malaysia, they remain quite intense after -- at least in Indonesia, we saw a very strong path to ARPU enhancement over the last 5, 6 quarters, but last quarter was a little bit dampening and I think that continues. Having said that, I think there is realization of improving the pricing in Indonesia. Malaysia is a little bit still far from that. I think opportunities, USD lower interest rates should, as I said earlier, help us while with the dollar debt, which around MYR 2 billion that we have at the holding company level. I think the opportunities portfolio optimization as well as is it monetization should help build us build capability and the synergies impact from Dialog, Airtel as well as CDB has still to be fully captured into the earnings of the respective companies, and that should give us an upside as and when we start getting those into our [ fit ]. So just kind of information that you would have heard. We postponed our Investor Analyst Day from 3rd December to 13 January. I think we realize that growing it at the end of the year is not that constructive because we are internally with our Board, and we will, with our major stakeholders, we are still in the process of finalizing our real strategies and the plans for the next year. So we're still somewhat early for us to bring it to the analysts and the investors. Hence, we've moved to 13th of January, Apologies for this inconvenience, but we thought it's more appropriate for us to do that so that it is somewhat also in light to what we set our KPIs for the years ahead. With that, I'll hand over back to Clare.

Clare Chin

executive
#5

Okay. Thank you, Vivek. So we will move on to the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] So I do see two hands raised. First, let's go with Izzati from Macquarie.

Izzati Hakim

analyst
#6

Just two questions from me. The first one is on the debt reduction side, right? So noted that net debt-to-EBITDA is at the lowest 2.59. Looking at year-to-date, it's down by 10% in terms of total debt. Can you clarify how much is from repayment and how much is from the stronger ringgit? So -- and then next question, looking forward in fourth quarter, since USD has strengthened, does that mean that we will see then higher total debt going into fourth quarter? First question. Second one, you made an announcement that was picked up by the news that Dr. Hans will be leaving in January because he's joining the -- he's going to be an adviser to the Sri Lankan President and we know that currently, he's basically looking at the telco business and all the CEO sort of report to him. Moving forward, how will the structure be for Axiata after he has left in terms of org structure? Will there be changes? Can you share with us what you're doing and how you're handling that?

Vivek Sood

executive
#7

Okay. [indiscernible] I think Nik if you want to do [indiscernible].

Clare Chin

executive
#8

Okay. But I think essentially, the agreement that was done in year was MYR 1.2 billion and approximately that net accounts actually for about 20% of the net debt to EBITDA -- sorry, the debt movement from end of last year to this quarter. So essentially 80% of the movement was due to the ringgit strengthening that has somewhat delivered the stronger, or at least lower net debt-to-EBITDA ratio. But having said that, it is a ratio, you would also recall that we mentioned just now that EBITDA also delivered strong growth of close to 15% on a YTD basis.

Vivek Sood

executive
#9

And a strong ringgit actually is negative on translation for us, right, on EBITDA.

Clare Chin

executive
#10

Only on the [indiscernible] as well as the IDR this year.

Izzati Hakim

analyst
#11

Got it. On the second question?

Vivek Sood

executive
#12

So I guess now that is -- I think we closed at about 4.12 in September. So now it's running around 4.49 slightly pretty much halfway than what used to be earlier. So you would see that impact coming back on the -- because of the ringgit weakening in this quarter. Okay, let me take the third one. Hans is here. Hans can also advise on how to restructure the organization. I think there's been the most recent development. So I am in conversation with my board on how we should reorganize ourselves. So I think that we would hopefully be able to let all of you know when we meet in January.

Clare Chin

executive
#13

I think next up, we have [ Prem ].

Prem Jearajasingam

analyst
#14

I'm again going to focus on the balance sheet, but more on the future with our monetization efforts and all that's going on, as you described in your slides in the presentation, could you help us understand with regards to the HoldCo debt and balance sheet. If we were to raise money or if we were to monetize any of these assets, would our focus be on returning cash to shareholders? Or would we be focused more on de-gearing the HoldCo, so to speak, if you could help us understand your preference on that. And I suppose as a follow-up to that, in the transactions that you are pursuing at this point in time, is the preference more for cash coming in or for, I suppose, the market to set new prices for your assets?

Vivek Sood

executive
#15

So I think -- let me maybe take Prem the first one. I think we would -- first objective would be to [indiscernible] debt and overall balance sheet, which is long-term sustainable so that we can continue to generate steady dividend flow with progress and growth over a period of time. So I think that would be the objective. I don't think we would look at onetime ratification or earnings for the shareholders, because the objective always has been sustainable dividend, right? So I think that would be the immediate priority for us. And at this point in time, whatever efforts we are making, including the buyback of some of the bonds in the last quarter is all with the intention of reducing the dollar exposure at the group. Because that's essentially a leakage, as you can see, from whatever we are able to earn from our operating company. So it's better for us to pay that down. So that, I think, is going to be the philosophy we will follow to achieve a sustainable dividend yield as well as a progressive growth in the dividend. Second question, I think the transaction is this starting with, of course, ability to monetize, but some of these transactions are starting with the most sustainable business or the operating company opportunity right. I mean what we've done in Sri Lanka, what we are trying to do in Indonesia is basically looking at market consolidation to be 3-player market, which should in [ Jan ], the lowest market share being there by around 25% to 26%. That makes the market more sustainable for long-term value creation, long-term future and also the fact that those synergies are something which we can capture were in terms of creating a stronger upside on these assets. So that's I think the starting point, which is there. But to do that, we will also look at -- and we do that for what is right for the operating company. And to do that, if there are assets where we can also monetize by way of a secondary, we will do that, and that helps us to pay down some of our leverage at the group level.

Clare Chin

executive
#16

So moving along then, I think next up, we have a Foong from CIMB.

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#17

Three questions from me. Firstly, I wanted to find out what was the start-up cost for the digital bank in the third quarter. And how do you see this start-up loss trending over the coming quarters? That's question number one. Number 2 question for EDOTCO. I see in terms of the numbers, there was an 18% revenue drop Q-on-Q. What was the reason for that? And then also for the normalized PATAMI, there was a 5x jump Q-on-Q to MYR 60 million. Again, I appreciate if I can get a bit more color as to what drove that? And then in terms of the outlook going forward, what is the opportunity here in terms of additional leases from the second 5G network rollout, now that we know that U Mobile has won the award, perhaps maybe based on what we have, we are currently leasing to them for 4G? And then thirdly, for Link Net, are we rethinking our plans on the fiber coverage rollouts. I mean, given the intense retail competition, do you see that there's a risk, right, that could trickle down to the wholesale market in terms of how much access seekers are willing to pay to lease the Link Net network? Those are my three questions.

Vivek Sood

executive
#18

Sure. So let me just -- first one, Boost Bank, I think we got MYR 45 million losses. As you know, we just started -- launched the bank in June. So I would expect around [ MYR 220 million, MYR 225 million ] per quarter kind of a run rate, which will be and that we expect to have over the next three years till we turn profitable on this -- the bank, which is what was our original plan, which we had laid out. But I think the good thing is I think the bank would be fairly operational once we start transferring, which we've already started doing the loan book which sits in the boost holding company into the bank. So today, we'll have a clear early start of getting ready from the loan book, which already exists there. So that's we expect on the bank side. EDOTCO, I think if I -- maybe I can ask Clare or Nik to...

Rizal Bin Nik Ibrahim Kamil

executive
#19

Yes. So on EDOTCO the reason for the big quarter jump is mainly due to the revision of the useful life of the [indiscernible] assets that came about in quarter 3. So that said, revenue is flat. So the main impact is actually due to the revision of usual life from 15 to 30 years.

Unknown Executive

executive
#20

Nik, if I can add up?

Rizal Bin Nik Ibrahim Kamil

executive
#21

Yes. Okay. Adlan is on the line. So Adlan, yes, please.

Adlan Tajudin

executive
#22

Yes. So I think revenue, I think if you recall last year, there was a gain coming from the one-off coming from the CD settlement as part of the settlement. We've accounted for certain discounts earlier. And because of the settlement, that discount was no longer applicable. Hence, there was a one-off this reversal, right, of about 100 -- there was a reversal of 121. Of the 121, 46 is actually recurring, annually because that has something that we have been providing for over the last 2, 3 years. So that's essentially coming from revenue. On that impact, I think EBIT impact is predominantly from the useful life review. I think we have increased our useful life from 15 to 30 years. I think in this essentially, I think you have -- we have actually done a benchmark with all TowerCo across the region and globally. And we see that TowerCo's useful life now in most of what is captured in the books is between 30 to 40 years, right? And hence, based on review of that, we have realigned our useful life from 15 to 30 years. It's a little bit more conservative than some of the approach of some of the other TowerCos, but essentially, the quarter impact is around approximately MYR 50 million on EBIT. So -- and that's 1 quarter impact. And essentially, third quarter impact on [indiscernible] is around MYR 45 million. And essentially, the other aspect that you see a big swing in impact is also driven -- [indiscernible] also driven by the ForEx gain essentially coming from the unrealized ForEx loss as well, right? And Q-on-Q impact on ForEx, it's essentially MYR 207 million gain.

Vivek Sood

executive
#23

Foong on the 5G, can you just repeat what was your question?

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#24

Yes. I wanted to understand in terms of the opportunity to lease more towers, right, to U Mobile now that they have won the rights to roll out the second 5G network. How many number of new leases do you think we can get from that rollout?

Vivek Sood

executive
#25

They're very, very difficult to say at this point in time. I don't know. Adlan, if you have an answer because it will all depend on what kind of grid the new network...

Adlan Tajudin

executive
#26

I think it's still too early, I think Foong, because I think U Mobile is probably doing their planning as well. But essentially, for EDOTCO, 2 is better than 1. And basically, now we have the second 5-year operator that creates a new opportunity. Our baseline has always been one. That will be the second one. It creates a new opportunity for us. How many? I think that we'll know in due course. Because the thing is also the final letter is also not out yet as far as we understand, yes, from the regulators to [ you over ].

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#27

Okay. But just based on how many towers we lease to U Mobile for 4G, right, assuming they roll out it based on the 4G grid, how many thousand new towers?

Unknown Executive

executive
#28

Today, if you look at what are we listening to U Mobile today is around 1,500.

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#29

Okay. All right. Got it.

Vivek Sood

executive
#30

To your fourth question on Link Net, I think -- our view is Link Net already got the second largest home passes, right, which is basically what they serve for themselves, which are now being served for XL as well as the home passes, which they've built for XL to sell, which is nearly around 3.4 million. So that in itself is -- provides -- and the old one is nearly 22% penetration. So that provides a sustainable cash flow for Link Net. And then there are opportunities where XL is partnered with Link Net to look at further growth expansion plan. So I think from that perspective, Link Net is -- from a liquidity cash flows is fine. The question is whether the market is going to get -- start getting more saturated given the wholesale pricing, which is there as for pressures on wholesale pricing as well as how much sale on the loan connects happen on the ServeCo side, I think that we'll have to watch off. It's still early days. There's always a euphoria when market opens up for certain things, which are seen as a potential big opportunity. But as you know, not many survive in that kind of a situation and we've seen that in a lot of markets where fiber play -- suddenly starts expanding here.

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#31

Okay. Got it. Maybe just a quick follow-up. Vivek, on the MYR 45 million loss you mentioned for the digital bank that was in the third quarter itself, is it? .

Vivek Sood

executive
#32

No, no, no. That's the year-to-date. That's year-to-date. But majority would have come in the third quarter because prior to that was just more operating expenses, which are capitalized prelaunch.

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#33

Right. So if I were to remove the digital bank loss Boost would actually have been profitable for the third quarter?

Vivek Sood

executive
#34

No. I think the -- I don't know exactly how much is going in the third quarter. But yes, I mean, the losses from the others would be substantially lower.

Choong Chen Foong

analyst
#35

Okay. All right. Got it.

Clare Chin

executive
#36

Perhaps to clarify that, I think you would see that on a YTD basis, Boost losses was MYR 134 million. So out of that MYR 45 million is coming through from the bank side. So to answer your question Foong, the rest of the business is still loss making, albeit on a narrowing basis.

Vivek Sood

executive
#37

And then we look at 2025, probably exit when the nonbank business will be profitable.

Clare Chin

executive
#38

Okay, moving on. We have Isaac from [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#39

Just one question for me, please. If I had to zoom into the third quarter results, so the margin from the Robi and Dialog was very strong. And it's -- especially for Robi, I mean, considering the lower revenue, we still have a higher EBITDA. So with [indiscernible]. So what exactly happened in these two markets? And how sustainable or not is this kind of cost structure or this kind of margin trend?

Vivek Sood

executive
#40

Not sure, maybe so [ Rajeev ], you're on the call? [ Rajeev ], you're on the call?

Unknown Executive

executive
#41

Yes Vivek, I'm on the call, sorry. I was...

Vivek Sood

executive
#42

Maybe you can provide why the margin was stronger? And are these [indiscernible].

Unknown Executive

executive
#43

Yes. I think as Vivek explained in Q3, there is a period of social unrest. For a period of time, our network was shut down, especially on the Internet side. So the revenues suffered because of that. At the same time, during this period, because of the situation and also in the change in the taxation on the new SIM cards, the number of SIM cards which we are selling in the market that has reduced significantly. So there has been a significant cost saving on that side, which is one of the biggest elements of this improvement in margin. And along with that, some of the marketing activities, given the market condition, we slowed down on them because they were not required given market was closed most of the time. So these were the two main reasons why margins improved. Along with that, our sustained efforts to improve our operating efficiencies. That's a continuous journey. So if I speak about in future, margins will remain strong. The SIM card sales has still suppressed given the market conditions. So in the future, if I look at Q4, margins should remain at a stronger level as compared to the first half of the year.

Vivek Sood

executive
#44

Okay. So Dialog, Supun you're on the call, right?

W. V. Supun Weerasinghe

executive
#45

Yes. Vivek. Yes, so Dialog again continued the price hardening exercise, which we started in second quarter. So third quarter, we had a larger period of higher pricing, which we did then. As a result, we saw 8% quarter-on-quarter growth in mobile which led the margin improvement. In addition, the energy prices were lower with improvement in the economy inflation coming down. So energy price reductions also helped plus our continued efforts on cost reductions ahead. There was some dilution on the margins because of the negative EBITDA that we carried through from Airtel integration. Close to about [ INR 300 million ] or about $1 million. This would continue to improve going forward. So overall, the margin improvement is sustainable. The revenue improvement is sustainable as we progress through the merger integration and synergy realization, as Vivek explained.

Clare Chin

executive
#46

So moving on. Next in the queue is [indiscernible] from HSBC.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#47

So I think I actually have two questions that I think may have been touched on partially by the previous queries and answers. So I'll just looking for a more specific response to these two questions. So I'm going to ask, A, about Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It looks like your businesses in those countries are resilient despite the macroeconomic headwinds. My question is on this note would be considering the headwinds and your good performance, what is your outlook/strategy in terms of expectations of these two countries to contribute to your revenue to the group's revenue and profitability? And also your deployment of resources in terms of growing in these two countries? Is it more of -- you're happy to proceed as planned before the macroeconomic headwinds? Has -- what happened recently in the past few months, sort of giving you a more of a sit-and-wait approach? And then my second query is more to Indonesia, which is I know you've mentioned that there's been higher competition and therefore, lower margins and revenues. So Indonesia is a mass market, obviously. If you give us -- or give us a little bit more detail on your plans to sort of grow your revenue or sort of fight the market conditions to become a bigger player in that market? I would really appreciate your thoughts and views on that? So those are my two questions.

Vivek Sood

executive
#48

You're looking at Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, right?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#49

That's the first question. And the second one is...

Vivek Sood

executive
#50

So fundamentally, both markets are strong. Fundamentally, the market structure is fairly positive in these two markets. The Sri Lanka is pretty much 2.5 player market. And there is -- we've seen that, which is what Supun said, there is this ability to increase prices, growth or price hardening. So I think fundamentally, this market is strong. Secondly, I think the [indiscernible] company over the last 2 years, have built in a fair amount of resilience going through the difficult times for managing the cost OpEx as well as CapEx in line with all the market development is happening. So I think we are confident that Sri Lanka will continue to progress in the right direction as the macroeconomic situation stabilizes, which we are seeing now far greater stability in Sri Lanka. Bangladesh again, from a market structure standpoint, fairly strong. I think Robi is strong second player, going very well on the margins as well as profit line. Having said that, I think the impact of the recent development in Bangladesh haven't still settled on. So I think what Rajeev said, the wait and watch would continue for some time where, for example, the [ single sale ] ensuring that there is no major marketing spend or CapEx being moderated over time, look at U.S. dollar pay down, risk on the balance sheet being. I think that's something will remain a focus as simple such time the market gets some form of stability or the macro environment get some form of stability. So Bangladesh, I would still say is a little bit of wait and watch and see how the developments happen on both economic and political front. Sorry, go ahead, please.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#51

I think maybe just your views on Indonesia. If you like me to repeat my question, that's also...

Vivek Sood

executive
#52

No, no, it's fine. We heard your question. I think Indonesia, there's obvious realization that the current pricing levels are not sustainable for the market. There have been, in our view, as an investor, there has been a major reaction by the operators, post the merger of one of the companies there. And that major reaction has seen softening of the market, but that may not be the long-term view we carry because there will be a smooth run for a period of time where we saw ARPU improvement, market stabilization. And this whole issue of market pricing in lockdown hasn't helped any of the operators from their margins and profitability standpoint. To me, this softening, I guess, is an interim phase. Things should start moving up. We are seeing some improvement there in this quarter. But going forward in 2025, we are more optimistic that the market will still be positive. Having said that, I think the macro challenges of the mass market affordability will remain somewhat of a headwind in Indonesia.

Clare Chin

executive
#53

Okay. It looks like we do not have further questions. I don't see any questions on the chat box either. Okay. So perhaps then maybe we proceed with closing remarks Vivek.

Vivek Sood

executive
#54

Yes. So first of all, thank you very much for joining...

Clare Chin

executive
#55

Sorry to interrupt. There is one more. There is Piyush from HSBC.

Piyush Choudhary

analyst
#56

I have two questions, Vivek. Firstly, on the leverage side, leverage has come down this year. It's a very good thing. But can you tell us your kind of 1- to 2-year target on where you want the leverage the group level to come down? And what kind of levers are there at the group level? Secondly, on Indonesia, I don't know if this was asked earlier, sorry, I joined the call little late. On the merger of XL and Sinar Mas, can you walk us through kind of the next steps and what are the time lines which you are looking at or the merger completion?

Vivek Sood

executive
#57

Okay. The first one, I think we did say Piyush earlier that we want to be 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by 2026, where at the moment, we are ahead. Part of it, as was explained earlier, also comes because of the strengthening of ringgit. We expect that strengthening should continue in future. I guess we would be ahead of that. To us, 2.5x is sustainable balance sheet leverage level for us. More important for us is to pay down some of the leverage at the group level and that's where some of the monetization of the assets. We look at it. So fundamentally, I guess, two levers. One, we expect continued growth on EBITDA across our operating companies, which has been invisible this year, and we expect that to continue. Second one is some of the monetization activities which we are doing should be used or will be used pretty much to pay down the holding company [indiscernible]. So that I think this plan. The second one was the merger, which I said earlier that the discussions, due diligence has been fairly completed. We are now in the stages of agreeing the definitive agreement negotiations around that going on. The process in Indonesia requires the approvals for the local board, local, so all that things have been now kind of worked on. As I said, there is nothing certain, but we are progressing in the right direction.

Piyush Choudhary

analyst
#58

Got it. Is there like a time line for both the parties on this definitive agreements like beyond which you can...

Vivek Sood

executive
#59

No, no. There is a long stop, which is March next year. But that's the long stop. I mean, we -- I mean that's -- if things are working well, then you can still extend it mutually right. But that's what is the plan.

Clare Chin

executive
#60

One last question I see in the chat box now. Question from [indiscernible]. Just -- with stronger cash flow generation, do you see higher dividend payout exceeding committed [ 10 cents ]?

Vivek Sood

executive
#61

Well, difficult to commit. I think we see positive development on next year. I think we'll probably make a decision after the full year is over. But we will be, as I said -- as we said earlier, we're still committed to [ 10 cents ] and then to progress in the increase.

Clare Chin

executive
#62

Okay. So I think that's all the questions we have for today.

Vivek Sood

executive
#63

So I guess what my last comment would be that we did see some softening in some of the markets on the top line. Some markets didn't pick up well. I think we have a combination of assets. Good news, bad news, you can say whatever, but there's always one positive, the other negative or things stage. But overall, I think fundamental focus of the entire organization on operational excellence managing costs well adjusting CapEx in line with how the market developments are happening. I think those things are being really focused on balance sheet. Managing liquidity has been the cornerstone of how the operating companies have been working and focusing on. So that part is, I think, something which we've been able to do well over the last couple of years. Market situation is something which we will work on ensuring the market conduct, et cetera, improves and that we should see an upside. Having said that, I think from a strategic standpoint, we would like you to be participating on the Investor Day on the 13th of January, where we will have more discussions around what's the future next step for Axiata. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

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