Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 10, 2026

NASDAQ US Health Care Pharmaceuticals conference_presentation 31 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#1

Welcome to the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference. I'm Pete Stavropoulos, a biotech analyst with Cantor. With us, we have Axsome, a company I cover. I am pleased to introduce Nick Pizzie and Mark Jacobson of Axsome. So let's start off with a brief intro of yourselves, snapshot of Axsome and the company's focus and strategy.

Mark Jacobson

executive
#2

Thanks for having us, Pete. Mark Jacobson. Nick Pizzie, CFO.

Nick Pizzie

executive
#3

Axsome, CNS-focused biopharma, we have 3 commercial products, which we'll, of course, focus on the flagship at the moment and all eyes are on Auvelity, which is approved for major depressive disorder and recently, Alzheimer's disease agitation, which we are launching. We've done expansion around that. And right now, it's all commercial performance for that product and then 2 others SIBraVa for migraine and Sunosi for excessive daytime sleepiness in obstructive sleep apnea and narcolepsy. Behind those products, we have a very deep and broad balanced pipeline of programs that are NDA stage, that's AXS-12 for narcolepsy. We have a PDUFA date of May 1 there and multiple Phase III programs either with one positive Phase III trial or that we've just initiated and are looking through various readouts, we can touch on those. So it's an incredible time for the company. The company is better positioned and the fundamentals are better than they ever have been. And right now, it's all about execution on the commercial and pipeline side of the house.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#4

All right. So in terms of catalysts that are coming up on late-stage assets, what should we expect in the remainder of '26 and '27?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#5

Remainder of '26 from a pipeline perspective, we've recently initiated a number of Phase III trials. We'll get into those. But looking towards -- between now and the end of the year, we have the ENGAGE Phase III trial of solriamfetol, that's Sunosi. In binge eating disorder, we've guided to top line results in the fourth quarter. So we're looking forward to that. We like that program and the 3 other label expansion efforts or potential label expansion efforts that are ongoing now. Those are real quick major depressive disorder with symptoms of excessive daytime sleepiness, shift work disorder and ADHD. So that's the next pipeline event. And then looking to next year, I've touched on the NDA, the PDUFA date for AXS-12 in narcolepsy. Again, that's May 1. And then we also have guided to top line from the SHIFT work trial of solriamfetol in 2027.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#6

All right. So you're also laying the foundation for the next wave. You have ongoing Phase II/IIIs as well as what you plan to initiate. So just walk us through those.

Nick Pizzie

executive
#7

Sure. So maybe I'll touch on the recent initiations, which I alluded to. We have AXS-05 in smoking cessation. We just initiated the SUMMIT Phase III trial, that is AXS-05 versus placebo and versus buuproprione. So again, that we just started. We haven't guided to top line yet and enrollment is underway. So stay tuned for updates there. Just prior to that initiation, we initiated 2 trials with solriamfetol and ADHD. So we have a positive Phase III trial in adults with solriamfetol and ADHD with substantial and we saw a substantial improvement in adults and symptoms of ADHD. And so now we need a study to complete studies in children and adolescents. Those are ongoing. We will provide updates there and top line guidance once enrollment is really underway, and we have a sense of how that's tracking. The other trials that are underway. We have -- again, I touched on the shift work disorder trial and then there is the trial in major depressive disorder with solriamfetol. We haven't guided there yet either and that's -- that study enrollment has now been underway for a number of months. Looking at AXS-14 that is [ esreboxetine, ] so the [indiscernible] of reboxetine in fibromyalgia. That trial, we initiated a number of months ago now and is enrolling there too. So we'll have updates for all of these programs. We're really excited about them. And then if you look even earlier in the pipeline, there's [ ASS1 and AXS 20, ] both of which are programs that are relatively new to the pipeline which we added last year and early this year and tech transfer activities are underway. Those are programs that were AXS17 we're looking at for epilepsy and AXS20. We plan to start a Phase III trial in schizophrenia as the next program there. And that we're also interested in exploring that for Tourette's syndrome. So just a lot going on, different therapeutic categories, all highly complementary and have leveraged the the clinical expertise that we've built over the years, and we look forward to keeping you posted on them.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#8

I'm surprised you can keep all of that in .

Nick Pizzie

executive
#9

Yes. No, I'm sure I forgot something.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#10

So turning to globality, you recently increased your peak sales potential in NDD and combo with the Alzheimer's to greater than $8 billion. So what are the assumptions behind that greater than $8 billion opportunity .

Mark Jacobson

executive
#11

Sure. Yes, I could talk a little bit about MDD to start with. So we ended the quarter Q2 $180 million. So annualizing $720 million and that's only -- that was with less than 0.25% of the total market share. So -- we recently expanded the team from 300 to 600. We also now have an LTC team that will be detailing our -- is detailing on MDD as well as ADA. So we feel that the -- if you take a look at the $8 billion and you split that up roughly $50 billion $50, $4 billion, that's only 1%, a little bit north of 1% of the entire antidepressive market. . And what we've been able to achieve thus far with roughly a significantly smaller sales force than a lot of our peers. That's why we decided, hey, let's double the team, and let's take advantage of it. We have exclusivity through Q1 2039 with -- if we get the pediatric indication for [indiscernible] So there is a long runway an additional 12 years that we have the ability to get to the $4 billion for MDD. And then when you take a look at ADA, obviously, it's on tap market with just 1 other branded agent in there that's an atypical antipsychotic. And we are -- we have just launched that. We're really pleased with some of the performance that we've seen thus far. But there's north of 20 million scripts that are written each year in this indication. And so we feel that the market is for our taking. And we are -- like I said, we just launched in the community setting, and we are launching in the long-term care setting.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#12

\ All right. So with the recent approval and launch, like you said, it's a very large opportunity, meaning ADA. So you're still early in launch, but what are you sort of seeing and learning from the first several months of launch?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#13

The first thing we always look for with the launch is feedback from prescribers who have tried the product. And so we're starting to get back that feedback is starting to come in for prescribers that -- the early prescribers for AD agitation. Of course, we've been getting that feedback now for major depressive disorder for some time. And we're seeing a very consistent theme and category of feedback, which is that patients who are starting on the product are seeing important reductions in agitation. It's occurring quickly. And the tolerability profile is very, very good. And feedback we're getting from clinicians who are interested in the product or haven't yet or who have was that a key consideration and differentiator is the tolerability profile is very much of interest because it's an at-risk patient population. And so tolerability profile or the types and rates of AEs that we saw, very moderate in nature. And of course, then the product does not have a black box warning for mortality risk in individuals with dementia. So that's driving interest in terms of the feedback we're getting. And so that's great. And then the early trial so far is lining up with the data we saw in the clinical program, and that's great. So that's leading to additional interest in trial. And then that filters into the sales team, strategy and tactics for how who we're looking to engage with in terms of from education to provide samples to. And so all of that work, all those gears are turning and we like what we're seeing so far, and we'll keep it going. And we expect to see impact from all that work start to grow and build materially between now and the end of the year and beyond.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#14

All right. So there is off-label use of generic antipsychotics in this indication. What do you see as like the biggest barrier to shifting prescriber behavior to drive adoption of a branded therapeutic?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#15

Well, I think part of it is just education, right? The utilization of off-label products or products off-label for the indication is due to the historical lack of approved treatments. So now there are 2 approved treatments and both very different. So that's great because there are different patient profiles and different needs. So I think it's very basic and again corresponds to our efforts, which is education and mechanistic education, scales and diagnosis and patient profile. So that's the team job, that's the sales team members, that's their job, the medical affairs team members. That's their job. And of course, they're able to engage and educate in different ways and be available to prescribers to answer questions. So I think that's -- the bulk of it is just that it's not that those products that were used off label were necessarily incredibly effective or but rather the need, the clinical need is so large and the impact of agitation is so substantial. Eventually would get to the point that venture would be required to prevent those individuals from risk and harm to themselves and others. Now that there are multiple approved products and novelty in particular, we're very excited about its profile. We think that will lead to changes in prescribing patterns. And we're starting to see that now.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#16

So you did highlight that 126% increase in NBRx among patients 65 and older. How should we interpret that from your perspective? Like how do you interpret that?

Mark Jacobson

executive
#17

Yes, I think that's the first leading indicator is the NBRx is another metric we've been sharing recently is that prior to the approval, the NBRx is related to the 65-plus Medicare LTC, they accounted for 19% of our Rx. So the month prior to a launch basically, that cohort accounted for roughly 19% of our NBRxs. Most recently, now that's north of 30%. So we're seeing that growth in NBRxs, which will ultimately transform to TRxs. The way that we think about the growth and the demand for ADA is it's the NBRxs that you're seeing in the titration packs that get reported and everybody is looking for it every Friday to seeing what those numbers are, but it's also the samples that we're providing to the doctors. And that the amount of samples that we are providing to the doctors is significantly higher than what you're seeing out there reported through scripts. Those samples ultimately, like as I shared, we'll convert to a tea in some fashion. So we're starting to see the inflection in teas in the last couple of weeks in Symphony and IQVIA data. And this is also in a time that's kind of more of a bear in time for -- in the psych space that mid- to end of August. It's usually a quiet period, but we're seeing that growth through this more difficult time period. So as September, October comes around, we should be able to start seeing the conversion of those NBRxs to TRxs. And the reason why we're doing sampling is we're heavily sampling and we continue to sample in MDD as well, right? Doctors always want to try new patients on samples. First, especially this cohort or patient population that's 65 [indiscernible] or that's a little bit more fragile. They want to be able to sample, try it see how well it works, and then they will be able to either, a, write the script for another titration pack perhaps, if they see fit or they can write a script for the maintenance dose. So that either 1 of those will come out as an NBRx.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#18

And so the bottom line is probably underestimating because of the other sampling.

Nick Pizzie

executive
#19

Again, we're defining demand as what we see demand and interest in the product is between what the patient is getting through a script or what the patient is getting through a sample. And that sample is just a temporary process that will eventually convert into a script. .

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#20

How should we think about adoption in community setting versus LTC both in the short term and in the long term?

Mark Jacobson

executive
#21

The -- so the snapshot of the market now, right, agnostic to any product is about 60% of the scripts come from the community setting and about 40% from long-term care. -- facilities or long-term care channel. The -- for us, specifically, what we would see in the short term or right now is that we'd expect the majority of the scripts to continue coming from the community setting. And that's just because that setting is further ahead, right, from an infrastructure perspective. So -- and the time from a potential, say, detail or call or educational effort to a potential script or a sample and then to a script, that's shorter than, say, the activation that happens in long-term care. So as a reminder, our commercial team and infrastructure, there was no long-term care component previously. So we were not engaging with long-term care facilities prior to the approval. So that's underway now. But that environment or that channel is much different from a community setting where there's there are prescribers an account manager or a sales representative may go in, engage with a doctor and then that doctor if they end up being interested in trying the product and they have an appropriate patient that comes in or a relevant patient profile, then they can ride it. And that's kind of all there is to it. In long-term care, there are multiple stakeholders in the process before someone in a facility may have a prescription and then the product is administered to them. And so there is potentially a pharmacy network or a central pharmacy and there are stakeholders and decision-making gating process there, directors of nursing, who are involved in overall prescribing decisions. And then, of course, clinicians or HCPs, who either may be affiliated with a facility or a network of facilities or or, say, a community-based clinician who essentially does like a rotation into these facilities. And so it is the jargon is that these facilities are activated or brought online. That takes usually at least a month before you would -- before -- there is a general ability to -- for a prescriber or a clinician to prescribe or write in that setting. So -- and simply in virtue of the fact that we weren't doing that previously. There is that lead time. But then once that occurs for any given facility, we'd start to expect to see riding there. So -- and then that will lead to kind of a differential mix between scripts coming from community and LTC versus what you see for the current kind of background rates, but we'd expect that to grow and change over time.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#22

All right. Anything else to touch on, on the Alzheimer's launch?

Mark Jacobson

executive
#23

Just that we're really excited about it, and we're really looking forward to keeping folks updated. But as you alluded to, we know everyone's really interested in weekly Friday numbers, and we expect those to continue to, again, grow between now and the end of the year and beyond. So it's great to have the product and the feedback that we're getting now and see it as a potential its potential utilization grow over time.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#24

All right. So MDD growth continues to build. Main drivers of that primary care uptake, increased prescriber confidence. Anything you can tell us?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#25

The MDD that's -- I don't want to use the word status quo because that maybe suggests lack of activity. But MDD, we're still seeing very high demand an interest and uptake. And you're right. So from launch, the focus was to start in engagements and focused activity in higher prescribing psychiatrists, and then we've broadened out from there. And what we see is, once there's trial and a certain number of trial for any given prescriber, the feedback similar to the agitation has been very robust that the product works well. It works rapidly, it's durable and then it has a distinct safety and tolerability profile, which is leading to very positive feedback on the product and how it performs. And so then that's driving uptake. So Nick touched on where we expect to be from, say, a steady state from penetration. So there's -- we're at about -- right now, with NBRxs, we're at 42 basis points, so 0.421% which is a leading indicator of where we would expect the TRx, which is just under -- or just right around 25% of 1% so 0.26 So that will give a good indicator at the NBRx market share of 0.42 gives us a good indicator. And that 0.42 is really just getting underway with the expansion, right? So that's that we're expecting that number to grow and grow pretty significantly. And one of the reasons why we wanted to do the expansion was to get -- to have better depth with the high decile doctors. With 300 reps, it was hard to be able to get in front of those high decile doctors as frankly as they need to be. The more that you're able to detail and share the benefits of belt, the more likely that doctors will think about what patient is the right fit for Avelity. . SPEAKER01 And then it's also just that we're actually reaching more docs, more primary care where we really think that that's how we're going to be able to grow the business.

Mark Jacobson

executive
#26

Do you want to touch on access quickly to...

Nick Pizzie

executive
#27

Sure. Yes. access -- the great thing about access is it's improved and it's involved over the last even 12 months. So right now, there is 89% total lives covered for ability of which 100% specifically in the government channel, which is obviously important for ADA, 82% in the commercial channel, and we're at 50 -- north of 55%, 56%, that is for first or I'm sorry, first line or first switch. So access covered lives is at a really nice level rate now with great formulary access and just go back to ADA, if we think about that 100% total covered lives, the majority of them north of 85% have no PA and are either also first line or first switch. So -- if a doctor does find a patient, it's very likely that patient would be covered and would be able to get the product.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#28

So the -- and going back to your question about just growth in MDD and continued growth at MD. So there's the sales force expansion. Nick touched on how that allows us to increase depth and breadth with potential prescribers. But then Access is at a point that as we go further into primary care, that tends to be earlier line utilization. So first, second line utilization. The access is now at a point where if it's written in that setting, it can generally be filled. And so that lines up nicely and the same point Nick just made for AD agitation. If it's written generally, there are very few barriers to it being written and then filled?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#29

Yes. The setup is perfect for the back half of the year, right? We did the expansion. The team's now got, on average, 4 to 6 months, probably about 4 to 5 months of year now at Axon. The market access is there, we're doing direct-to-consumer advertising. We might tick that up a little bit towards the end of the year just to kind of get the pull-through. So the setup is there between the ADA and the MDD expansion launch.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#30

All right. I'm sure we could spend another hour talking about quality. But let's just turn to AXS-12 in narcolepsy. So moving into -- you have a PDUFA date on May 1. You've highlighted AXS-12 rapid onset, cataplexy reduction, cognitive benefit. How do you sort of see this fitting into the current MT1 treatment landscape where polypharmacy is common, but also on the backdrop of the orexin [ treetoagonist ] entering treatment landscape? .

Mark Jacobson

executive
#31

Sure. So of course, let's get the product approved first and that potential milestone is coming up. So that's in the first half of next year. And so without the benefit of an approval and a final label to let you know exactly how we expect it to fit you alluded to the product profile, right? We have -- we focused on cataplexy as the primary endpoint in our clinical program. but we also look at excessive daytime sleepiness, which we saw benefit and improvement in cognition, also saw cognitive benefit. And then you touched on rapid onset of action. We have daytime dosing. We have likely a very different scheduling from the -- what the primary products or products that have been utilized for this indication. And then the tolerability profile is distinct from what's available and products that are -- have recent approvals or other products that could be approved. So kind of depending on, again, your point of reference, the product is differentiated, which is great and what we're looking to do. And we think that all stems from the mechanism is differentiated. It's mechanistically, it's differentiated from what's available and other programs in development. And that's important. It is an orphan indication, but it's as far as orphan goes, it's not ultra-orphan, and there's a pretty dramatic need for new treatment options. And of course, there's a lot of work now by the industry, which is fantastic. So we're excited about the profile, again, as something that's differentiated that can be a potential we'll see if it's approved, but a potential treatment option for to fit in kind of that you alluded to the -- you mentioned NT1, so that would be the area of focus. And I would just maybe add a super synergistic. We have obviously the sleep expertise now in-house with Sunosi, and we've been detailing that marketing that since 2022. So the team can essentially, if we wanted to add that directly to the bag. So minimal additional operating expenses would be acquired and everything would just incrementally fall to the bottom line. So from a financial perspective, it makes a lot of sense.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#32

All right AXS20. So in April, you announced that you acquired this PD [indiscernible] Inhibitor from Takeda. What exactly attracted you to it?

Nick Pizzie

executive
#33

Sure. The Well, there are a number of things. We tend to -- I think it probably comes across in how we always go back to mechanistic differentiation. So us, that's really important. And how do you how do you offer innovation to patients and prescribers and to us, that always starts with the mechanism. So here, we have potential novel mechanism for schizophrenia. We also mentioned that we're interested in exploring potential applicability in Tourette's syndrome. And there are -- there's -- so you have mechanistic rationale and you have clinical rationale -- there's a can this indication that was completed that we see a signal that warrants additional investment and experimentation. So the plan here is to conduct a Phase III trial in schizophrenia as the next clinical work for that molecule. You mentioned we acquired that earlier this year. So right now, it's about tech transfer and Phase III enabling work, and that work is underway. We're really excited about it in terms of just the overall need for that space. There are some products approved, of course, and -- but there is still a need for novel programs. And so we'll continue the clinical program to see if there is a signal and it may be efficacious and what the tolerability profile may be. But that is highly complementary to the products that we have in our commercial portfolio and those that are in development. So it also is complementary in terms of if we ran through the pipeline, which I appreciate, because oftentimes, we don't have time to do that. It really helps us balance the pipeline, which historically was very, very late stage. And lopsided towards Phase III. So now we actually have things that stack in that are earlier stage. Of course, this is Phase III enabling work, so it's not that early, but it fits nicely with the other programs that we have in the pipeline.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#34

So in terms of tolerability, AE profile, so from the Phase II -- so 1 of the problems with drugs in schizophrenia, right, is tolerability and then the cycle off. And so is there anything that suggests that?

Mark Jacobson

executive
#35

Well, yes, I mean, if you look at the rates of AEs and maybe classic AEs that are considered that you often see in terms of movement disorders as 1 example. There may be differentiation there. we have a limited data set so far. I mean, it's not that limited. There are quite a few patients in the Phase II. Yes. So I don't mean to diminish it too much, but there's still more work to do. to see if -- how much differentiation there may be there. But you're right. That's another compelling component. And again, we would tie that to most likely do the different mechanism that the product has.

Pete Stavropoulos

analyst
#36

All right. We are out of time. I want to thank you both for participating in the Cantor Healthcare Conference and looking forward for more progress. And .

Nick Pizzie

executive
#37

Yes. We know we'll definitely do that. And thanks for having us. Pete. Appreciate. Thank you

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