Ayvens (3AL.F) Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ayvens' Q3 2025 Results Conference Call. Today's speaker will be Tim Albertsen, CEO; and Patrick Sommelet, Deputy CEO and CFO. I now hand over to Mr. Tim Albertsen. Sir, please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this Ayvens' Q3 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm hosting this call, as always, with Patrick Sommelet. First, I'll present the highlights of our third quarter, then Patrick will comment on our financial results. We'll then take all the questions you may have. Let's go directly to Slide 5. Continuing on the positive trend set in the first half of the year, Ayvens has posted strong financial results for the third quarter. Margin stood at a very high level at 593 bps of earning assets versus 521 bps in Q3 '24. Used car sales results after depreciation adjustments stood at EUR 536 per car, showing an increase of 9% compared to Q3 '24. This result includes a EUR 48 million prospective depreciation charge on our U.K. fleet on which Patrick will come back in a few minutes. The underlying used car sales results, excluding accounting adjustments, stood at EUR 1,110 per car, continuing on its normalization trend. Cost-to-income ratio stood at a low 52.8% for Q3 '25, supported by both higher margins and lower underlying expenses. Finally, net income group share stood at EUR 273 million, an increase of 86% compared to Q3 '24 and broadly stable compared to Q2 2025. For the first 9 months of '25, net income group share amounted to EUR 764 million, an increase of 46% versus the first 9 months of 2024. On the back of this strong financial performance, positive announcement of the U.K. Motor Finance Commissions by the FCA early October and a further reduction in RWA calculations, I'm pleased to announce the distribution of EUR 700 million to our shareholders, which comes in addition to the current distribution policy of a 50% dividend payout ratio. This distribution will consist of a share buyback program of EUR 360 million starting tomorrow as authorized by the European Central Bank, combined with the payment of an exceptional cash dividend of EUR 0.42 per share for a total amount of around EUR 340 million. As indicated previously, the objective of this exceptional distribution is to return the excess capital build up throughout 2025 and to bring Ayvens' core Tier 1 ratio closer to our target. This is in line with our commitment towards value creation for our shareholders. Factoring in this EUR 700 million distribution, our RoTE for Q3 stood at 14.3% and our core Tier 1 stood at 12.8%. Let's now turn to next page on key strategic and business developments for this quarter. First, Ayvens is continuously strengthening its asset management setup as the protection of our balance sheet has been and remains a strong focus. To that purpose, I'm happy to announce the appointment of Roderick Jorna as Chief Remarketing and Asset Management Officer. These missions include optimization of the usage of the group's funded fleet at contract end through the industrialization of our multi-cycle lease capacity, especially for electric vehicles. To that purpose, it will also leverage and develop further Ayvens car markets, our leading remarketing platform. As an illustration of this strategy development, we recently opened the Ayvens factory in Veendam in the Netherlands. This is our largest car refurbishment facility in Europe with the capacity to manage the entire remarketing process from inspection and maintenance to damage repair and resale or re-lease in one single location for the whole Ayvens fleet in the Netherlands. The capacity of this facility is about 1,000 vehicles per month. This initiative demonstrates our commitment to sustainable mobility and will contribute to the acceleration and growth of our used car leasing. Today, at group level, our used car leasing fleets amount to 71,000 cars, an increase of 5% compared to the end of 2024. Second strategic highlight is the ongoing reshaping of the Ayvens shareholding. With the successful execution of the third ABB mid-September, where 48 million shares changed hands, representing close to 6% of Ayvens' capital with ex-LeasePlan shareholders now holding just below 12% of the group's capital. Post this transaction, daily volumes of Ayvens stock have significantly increased. I'm also pleased to announce that Ayvens reached an agreement with the ex-LeasePlan shareholders on the contingent considerations and related matters. Finally, integration is on track with the migration of 2 additional countries, Slovakia and Brazil in Q3. This brings the total number of migrated countries to 16 out of 21 overlapping countries. We delivered EUR 251 million of synergies in the first 9 months of 2025, of which EUR 104 million for Q3 2025 alone. This is in line with our target of EUR 350 million for the full year of '25. Let me now take you to the next slide and the evolution of the fleet and earning assets. As you know, the portfolio review that we conducted in 2024 aimed at restoring profitability and protecting our balance sheet. This has weighed on our fleet and earning asset growth. In parallel, we have also restructuring -- we have been restructuring 3 specific parts of our business, namely the broker channel in the U.K. and subscription business in Germany and our fleet in Turkey. Earning assets stood at EUR 52.6 billion, down 1% compared to September '24, but up 0.8% when excluding the 3 parts under restructuring. Total fleet stood at 3.2 million vehicles, a decrease of 3.7% versus September '24. However, our restructuring efforts are now well advanced, and we start seeing encouraging results as the decrease of the total fleet is being limited to 0.3% versus Q2 '25. In terms of deliveries by powertrain, the EV penetration decreased to 37% versus 39% in Q3 '24 with BEV at 26% and plug-in hybrids at 11%. Let me now hand over to Patrick on the latest development in the U.K.

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As we have been indicating for several quarters, Ayvens has been reshaping its business footprint in the U.K. in the backdrop of the portfolio review, which has supported the uplift in the group's profitability since early '24. In the U.K., this review has consisted of the restructuring of our brokered business as large parts of this distribution channel were below our profitability threshold. In that segment, fleet is going down 29% versus September '24, resulting overall in a decrease of 28,000 cars in the U.K. funded fleet. This restructuring is well advanced and is expected to be completed in the course of next year and will still weigh on the fleet evolution for the next few quarters, albeit to a lesser extent. Nonetheless, the U.K. is and will remain a key market for Ayvens in which we continue to push for delivering sustainable and profitable growth. Our commercial franchise continues to develop with our fleet with large corporates increasing by 2% and our footprint with retail customers, excluding brokers, remaining unchanged. Another key area of focus in this country is our asset risk. Price dynamics are quite specific in the U.K. in comparison with other European markets. While prices for both new and used cars are evolving in line with our expectation for ICE cars and PHEV, evolution for prices on BEVs is trending below our anticipation. This situation is very specific to the U.K. and driven by a mixture of adverse local conditions impacting BEV's new and used car prices. First, the absence of tariffs on Chinese imported cars. Second, the recent introduction of subsidies on new battery electric vehicles. And finally, these used cars cannot be exported because of the right-hand wheel, which exporting is an effective mitigant usually to losses on used BEVs in other countries where export is doable. This has led us to book a prospective depreciation charge of EUR 48 million on our U.K. fleet. We keep monitoring closely market dynamics. For new productions, we lowered the residual values on BEVs across the group early in the cycle to levels we are still comfortable with. Finally, on the U.K. Motor Finance, following the FCA announcement on the 7th of October, we reiterate that our provision of EUR 93 million remains sufficient. Let me now turn on to the section on the financial results. So I will follow up with revenues on Slide 10. This quarter, again, Ayvens posted high revenues with gross operating income reaching EUR 851 million, an increase of 17.6% compared to Q3 '24, thanks to higher margins. Total margins stood at EUR 776 million, up 20% versus Q3 '24. This increase was driven by a very high level of underlying margin at EUR 782 million versus EUR 693 million in Q3 '24. It was also supported by a strong reduction in nonrecurring items totaling minus EUR 5 million in Q3 '25 versus minus EUR 47 million 1 year ago. UCS results and depreciation adjustments was overall stable at EUR 75 million compared to EUR 77 million in Q3 '24. Before depreciation adjustment, the underlying UCS results continued its normalization and stood at EUR 155 million versus EUR 222 million in Q3 '24. This decrease was offset by a reduction in depreciation adjustment, which stood at minus EUR 80 million versus minus EUR 145 million in Q3 '24. To be noted, this minus EUR 80 million in Q3 '25 includes the prospective depreciation charge of minus EUR 48 million booked in relation to the weakness of U.K. BEV prices, as I mentioned earlier. Let's now turn to the next page on margins. Total margin stood at EUR 776 million, up EUR 130 million versus Q3 '24. They were supported by very strong underlying margin at 593 basis points of net earning assets. Diving into margin subcomponents, the leasing margin stood at a very strong level in continuation of the trend seen in previous quarters. It was supported by lower interest costs across fundings -- all funding sources and was further helped by a few positive one-offs in countries post IT migration. We do not expect these one-offs to reoccur over the next quarter. Services margin also increased, supported by lower maintenance costs further to underpinned by the ramp-up in program in procurement and insurance synergies, which are being delivered according to plan. Overall, 9 months 2025 underlying margin stood at 569 basis points versus 530 for the first 9 months of 2024. To finish on margins, impact of nonrecurring items was very limited this quarter at minus EUR 5 million versus minus EUR 47 million in Q3 '24, thanks to much lower impact for both hyperinflation and mark-to-market of derivatives. We expect that hyperinflation should be higher in Q4 '25. Let's move to the next page on UCS and depreciation adjustment results. The UCS results and depreciation adjustments reached EUR 75 million versus EUR 77 million in Q3 '24 and EUR 143 million in Q2 '25. The UCS results before depreciation adjustments per car has dwindled from EUR 1,420 in Q3 '24 to EUR 1,110 per car in Q3 '25. While still remaining at a high level, the UCS results show significant disparities between powertrains with ICE car profit still being elevated and BEV losses per car remaining substantial, albeit stable compared to previous quarter. In Continental Europe and other regions, the evolution of BEV has remained consistent with our anticipation. However, used BEV prices in the U.K. have decreased beyond our anticipation, leading us to book a prospective depreciation charge of minus EUR 48 million. As a consequence, UCS results and depreciation adjustments stood at EUR 536 per car, down from EUR 972 per car in Q2 '25, but still slightly up versus Q3 '24. For the 9 months '25, UCS results and depreciation adjustments stood at EUR 740 per car, which is slightly above our full year guidance '25, which was EUR 300 to EUR 700 per car. Volumes stood at 140,000 vehicles. Again, the decline in quarterly UCS volumes compared to last year is mostly explained by the lower number of cars that are being returned at the end of the contract due to 2020 to 2022 vintage shortages. On the next page for operating expenses, so we can see that total operating expenses stood at EUR 429 million, showing a decrease of 6.7% compared to Q3 '24. Costs to achieve amounted to EUR 17 million versus EUR 20 million in Q3 '24. Our CTA over 9 months '25 amounted to EUR 79 million, in line with plan for the full year ranging between EUR 115 million and EUR 125 million. Then looking at underlying costs, they stood at EUR 412 million and were down 6.1% versus Q3 '24, driven by the ramp-up in cost synergies as integration progress is well on track and strict cost monitoring continues across the organization. This cost decrease, combined with a very high level of margins, led to a cost-income ratio at 52.8%, down by 10.6 percentage points compared to Q3 '24. cost-income ratio for the 9 months '25 stood at 56.1% versus 64.3% for the 9 months '24. For the remainder of the year, we are expecting some increase in BAU cost compared to Q3, which is related to the year-end closing, and we keep our full year '25 cost income guidance unchanged at 57% to 59%. So for the rest of the income statement, we have starting with cost of risk, as shown on the left-hand side graph, the cost of risk, which is stable at EUR 27 million, representing 21 basis points of average earning assets versus 22 in Q3 '24, so still a benign environment there. Profit before tax stood at EUR 390 million, up 70% versus Q3 '24 as a result of a very strong margin and well-controlled operating expenses. Effective tax rate is at 29.7% and continues to be in line with our indication for the year and net income group share is slightly higher than last quarter at EUR 273 million, but strongly up 86% versus Q3 '24. As a result, return on tangible equity stood at a strong 14.3%, further supported by the EUR 700 million capital distribution. Now turning to our final slide on RWA and capital. RWA stood at EUR 54.3 billion at the end of Q3 '25, which is a decrease of EUR 1.5 billion compared to Q2 '25, very largely due to a significant decrease in market risk RWA. As a reminder, the RWA, this market risk RWA results from the group's foreign exchange exposure, which is made up exclusively of equity position in non-euro countries. The RWA decrease in Q3 reflects the waiver approved by the ECB. This waiver allows us to exclude part of this equity exposure from RWA computation as their volatility is contained within certain boundaries. The graph on the right-hand side of the slide details the 160 basis points of CET1 capital that Ayvens has generated between end '24 and Q3 '25, and it can be broken down as follows: First, the implementation of CRR3 in Q1 '25 led to a reduction of EUR 3.4 billion in operational RWA translating into a saving of 77 basis points of CET1. Second, the authorization from the ECB to apply a foreign exchange waiver starting in Q3 '25 brings an additional saving of 33 basis points. At last and importantly, the increase in retained earnings since the end of last year, reflecting higher profitability of the group represents a total of 51 basis points. On that basis, the Board of Directors authorized a total distribution of EUR 700 million, representing 133 basis points of CET1 ratio, bringing this ratio down to 12.8%, closer to our target. I now leave the floor to Tim to conclude the presentation before our Q&A session. Thank you.

Thanks, Patrick. As this is my last call as Ayvens' CEO, I just wanted to share my appreciation for the discussion and exchanges we have had and the trust and support that you as investors and analysts have shown us over the years. I recognize that the beginning of our ALD-LeasePlan merger was quite a challenge for all parties. But I think with today's results, the significant return of capital to shareholders and the prospect of the future of Ayvens is a good sign of appreciation to those of you who kept believing in our story. The 1st of December, I hand over to Philippe, a great platform and a company that is in a good place to deliver the promises that has been set. I'm immensely proud of what my ex-group colleagues and the teams have achieved over the past years. Their determination, professionalism and shared ambition have enabled us to successfully bring together 2 great companies and establish Ayvens as a truly global leader in sustainable mobility. Together, we have built a group with a unique scale, capabilities and a new momentum, one that is very well positioned for the future, I believe. With that, we are now ready to take any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Jacques-Henri Gaulard with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Tim, congratulations. I hope you enjoy the sun a lot during your retirement. And congrats for the results. I have so many questions, but I'll ask two, okay. The first one, if you can remind us maybe the agreement on the contingent liabilities with Lincoln would be great and what it's going to entail? And maybe because you've addressed the BEV situation in the U.K., if we could have maybe an outlook on the BEV situation for the whole perimeter of Ayvens would be great. And congrats again.

Thanks, Jacques-Henri. Let me start on your question on the BEVs in the U.K., and then I think Patrick can give you a bit of more details on the contingent payments for the consortium. So I think -- so first of all, what we are seeing in the U.K. is quite a specific situation. I think, first of all, I think Patrick mentioned that, first of all, when a car is in the U.K., it stays in the U.K. to some extent because obviously, the wheel is in a different side than what it is in Mainland Europe, which means we cannot use one of the mitigations we have in the rest of Europe to actually bring a car to a more attractive market. So that's one thing. And then the second thing that is pretty important for the U.K. market is the fact that there are -- I mean, there's no tariffs on the Chinese manufacturers. So the Chinese manufacturers have actually through price mainly, gained, I think, 13% market share very, very quickly and brought down the prices of new cars. And last but not least, the U.K. introduced new subsidies, which also again have an impact on the new car prices and hence an impact on the used car price of BEVs in the U.K. And then overall, there is typically shorter contracts in the U.K. than there is in the rest of Europe. So that is actually leading to significant losses on the BEVs in the U.K. It's been like that for quite some while, but obviously, it's pretty bad. We don't see any contagion on Mainland Europe, mainly because of there is tariffs, first of all, on Chinese BEVs in -- within the EU. And we are capable of exporting -- we are exporting more than 50% of our returns on BEVs to other markets. And where there is actually several markets today where there is a real demand for used BEVs. It means that in areas where the demand is not that great, we can actually bring these cars to other markets. So for the time being, we don't see in anywhere near the same -- actually, we see quite a stabilization in Mainland Europe in terms of the BEV prices that we have seen for the last couple of quarters. And these price scenarios that we are using that we're also back testing is fully in line with our anticipation. So that's on the BEVs, Jacques-Henri. Maybe Patrick, on the...

Yes, on the agreement for contingent consideration. So as you may recall, and it's disclosed in our annual report and the notes there was a remaining agreement with the former LeasePlan shareholders, whereby Ayvens, depending on certain conditions to be met, was supposed to pay a contingent consideration in time to LeasePlan shareholders -- former LeasePlan shareholders. So it's been a long negotiation with them and many topics that we openly discussed with you in previous results publication and many things that we -- that came -- became apparent post closing. And all this topic have led to a very significant level of discussion with the former shareholders, which is now closed, signed and executed. And as we put it in the press release, the outcome of this agreement is expected to have a positive impact on Ayvens' total revenue in Q4 '25 mostly in revenue, by the way, and we will record it in the Q4 results. So these specific items are a mix of reimbursement from TDR and release of provisions we had built over time in balance sheet. So I could name a couple of them, such as the list Russia loss reimbursement, contingent consideration on CSF order book, coverage of some tax risk and many other things. It's a long list of items, which have led to an overall negotiation. So this result is actually showing a positive outcome of a long-lasting negotiation, as I mentioned. But in parallel, we continue to restructure our operations to continue reducing our cost-income ratio beyond the levels we are currently showing this quarter. Albeit it is very low and it might be back in higher territories in Q4. As such, we are maintaining our full year guidance. So in relation to this exceptional booking related to the federal agreement, we will book additional transformation charge in the next Q4, and we will give full disclosure on that with Q4 disclosure. Overall, it's the one offsetting the other, and it's not expected to impact significantly the profit before tax. But it's fair to say it will distort the readability of our accounts in Q4. But again, in due time, we will provide the full items helping you to see what is the level of underlying activity.

The next question is from Sharath Kumar with Deutsche Bank.

Congratulations, first of all, Tim, for a wonderful career and good luck for your future. I have 3 questions, please. Firstly, on the margins. Can you quantify the small one-off elements, which you said boosted the margin? And where do you see the outlook from here? Is it safe to assume margins well north of 550 basis points from here? Also, you spoke about lower funding costs. Can you elaborate on the reasons? And should we be worried about potential higher borrowing costs for the French sovereign in 2026? So that's the first one. Second one is on fleet growth. You've been pretty cautious rightly so on fleet growth, but anything that you have seen to change the mood here? So when do you think is a reasonable time frame to expect a resumption? And what sort of quantum are we talking about? And where are we in the de-fleeting efforts in the 3 markets that you cited? Lastly, on RWA, very encouraging to see the progress on market RWA. Can you give us more clarity on the ECB waiver, whether this is permanent or is there more to come? And sticking with the same topic, I see your operational and market RWA despite the improvements is still slightly higher than many European banks. So can you comment on this and further scope to reduce here?

Thanks, Sharath. So yes, let me take your second question. I think there was actually more than 3 because there was a few ones in. But I'll leave that to Patrick to talk about the margins and the risk-weighted assets. On the fleet growth, so I think you saw a number on the U.K., it's around 30,000 units that we have been de-fleeting in the U.K. in 2025. And we are -- it's a very, let's say, targeted way of looking at the market. There is particular segments in the U.K. market that is just not at par with profitability, and that's where we are exiting. We are still very committed to the U.K. market. As you have seen, we're actually growing a bit in the corporate market, and that's where the margins are correct. And I think in Turkey and on Fleetpool mainly, which is the subscription activity we had in Germany, I think we are talking around 15,000 units all in for '25. And on those 2 markets, we are pretty much done, not completely done yet with the U.K. Then I think we have talked a lot in the last couple of quarters of all the activities that we have been putting in place to actually reactivate a more stronger commercial, let's say, effort. And it's a big ship, and there is a long tail on our business, whether it's actually slowing down business or the other way around, it takes time. I think we are seeing the first signs, at least the last 4, 5 weeks, we have seen a trend where the new order intake is improving, which means we are starting to filling up our order bank probably by end of this year. And hence, we do anticipate slight growth in 2026. But again, we are not anticipating 2%, 3% organic growth on the fleet in '26, at least where it is now, but the market has been quite adverse in '25 as well. I think we said there has been some changes on the benefit in kind taxation in several of our larger markets, in particular, France and Italy. It's one of the reasons why we have seen quite a sluggish order intake in those 2 countries in the first 6 months. That is -- seems to be on a good track now. I think the new taxation have been absorbed and understood by the market, and we start seeing a bit of activity there as well. So I think you'll see that from '26, the restructuring of the 3 areas I mentioned is pretty much done. There's still a bit more to be done in the U.K., but not necessarily in the same level as we see in '25. And we start seeing that some of the initiatives and probably important as well is that we have been or we are cautious on residual values on EVs. And in the, let's say, the first 6 months of '25, we did not necessarily see competition following us. But in the last quarter, we have seen that the market is aligning more to our position, which again, should help us also regaining some growth in some of our more important segments. So that's on the fleet, Sharath, maybe over to you, Patrick, on margins and risk-weighted assets.

Yes. So starting with risk-weighted assets, indeed, we've been able to -- and so again, it's not something that comes all of a sudden. We've been working on that for the past 2 years probably. On the ECB waiver, the ForEx waiver, the ECB, the ForEx waiver approved by ECB. So it's basically, if you can demonstrate that your ForEx risk is contained within certain boundaries, you can get a waiver as per regulation and it's on regulation, which is applicable to any player, any bank in the market. So we have been able to demonstrate that and it has been acknowledged as such, and it's an improvement that -- and I think we had mentioned previously that we are expecting to optimize our RWA. There was the operational risk improvement at the beginning of the year. There is no the market risk, which is optimized. We do not rule out additional optimization for the future as we remain a business, which has a relatively high level of consumption of RWA. If you look at total RWA versus total NEA, it's about -- it's still more significant, which is not usual in the banking industry. But let's say, we have been able to partly address this issue and to make our usage of capital less intensive, which is good for the overall profitability and return of the firm. Coming back to margin, indeed, we have a small one-off in the quarter in the leasing margin, which is around EUR 15 million. It's a release of provision in a number of countries which have been migrated and which were holding a couple of reserves back in case they would have had issues in migrating the clients from one IT system to the other. So EUR 15 million represents 10 to 15 basis points when annualized. So you see how much this margin basis points when -- which is a quarterly number, which is then annualized, can be volatile. And that's why in consistency with our past practice, we don't give a guidance on this margin, but it should not remain at this elevated level in the next quarter also because we want to put a bit more emphasis on volume growth versus the defense of margin. And also the lower funding costs we are seeing this quarter and which will probably last, indeed the rest of the end of the year is relating to the fact that the NEA are coming down and NEA are coming down because -- and that's a well-anticipated evolution. The fleet is going down. And that's, again, something we are monitoring very closely because we want to restructure some parts of the business, which are not the right profitability. But also -- and that's an important evolution that we observed throughout the year, the NEA per car is coming down. And this is reflecting actually the pressure on the prices on new cars, which are starting to decrease now from a year. That's the case on BEV cars less on ICE, but clearly, that's the case on BEV cars. That's also corresponding to the purchasing synergies we are able to generate further to the merger between LeasePlan and ALD. So this lower NEA per car have led us to review our expected NEA our projection of NEA and review slightly downward our funding program, which is then leading to lower funding cost as it is -- as it can be anticipated.

The next question is from Matthew Clark with Mediobanca.

So a question from me is on proposed French tax changes, both for dividends and buybacks. How do you expect these to impact you, if at all, both for this program and programs going forward?

I think it's fair to say the French tax landscape is rather uncertain right now. It's difficult to comment as we don't have a finalized decision and budget law and we have a little visibility on that. We don't expect this change to have a meaningful impact as we speak on our French business. And the evolution of the French tax on buyback. So we have a French tax on buyback, which is accounted for in our equity for the current buybacks. Again, we have limited visibility on the evolution of that. At this stage, we do not plan that it would have a significant -- it would impact significantly either our French business or our capital return policy to shareholders as we speak.

Okay. But just to clarify, is your understanding of the new buyback tax proposal that it applies to the nominal balance rather than the par balance as per the existing lower buyback tax. Is that the right read?

Yes. But again, it's difficult to comment on nonfinite tax of law.

The next question is from Geoffroy Michalet with ODDO BHF.

Congratulations for the strong results and strong underlying improvement as well. Two questions for me. First one has to do with the one-off contingent consideration that we should see in Q4 and on which you said it would be rather on revenue and its counterpart, let's say, the increased OpEx for transformation. Can you give us a sense of the magnitude of those 2 elements that are set to offset one another? That was the first question. And the second question is that I noticed that the mix of EV delivery this quarter has slowed down to 37% versus 43% last quarter. Is it something deliberate? Or is it more a demand from your client? How can you -- how can we read this?

Thanks, Geoffroy. Let me take your second question first, and then Patrick will elaborate a bit more on the contingent considerations. So no, I think what -- I mean, as you know, we took very conscious decisions back in early '24 to reduce the numbers of the residual value on BEVs, and we have taken quite significant steps there. And as you know, we have typically an order bank that takes 6 to 9 months to deliver. So we are starting to seeing the first sign of that. I think what we have said is part of as well, to some extent, the fact that we are not growing very fast is that we have priced ourselves for a period out of that market. So now you start seeing the results of that. I think there is still a big appetite from our clients to go electric if it's affordable. And we still serve quite a number of our large clients with EVs. But this is really, I would say, a result of our pricing on the residuals on EVs and I would say, also our wish to decelerate a bit the electrification in our fleet to take a bit more time to do the transition to electric. So I think that's. But maybe on the one-offs...

Yes, on the one-off to be expected so far in Q4 '25, the order of magnitude you were asking for is somewhere between EUR 50 million and EUR 60 million.

The next question is from Nicolas O Sullivan with UBS.

Congratulations on the delivery today. My first question would be, what do you think is the right level of CET1 ratio to run the business going forward? And would you consider in the future to return any excess above roughly 12% CET1 ratio back to shareholders? That will be my first question. And the second question would be whether you see more operating leverage going forward once you implement the synergies from this plan? If you grow in the retail segment, second life leasing and the current portfolio reshaping you are doing, if you could tell us about your potential there, please?

Yes. Thank you, Nicolas. So let me take your second question first in terms of operational leverage. I think it's fair to say that we have our 52% cost income guidance for '26. That's quite ambitious still even so we are trending quite well for the time being. Coming -- I mean, past '26, we obviously still think there is more operational leverage to be done. I think we -- when you do a merger like this, you do not necessarily optimize your processes. We have put in place a new target operating model that is there, but probably can also be optimized. And I think with some of the new technologies around AI, there is obviously opportunities as well. Some of it will come with investments as well. So the question is how much flows through the P&L in the first years. But obviously, there is another step to be taken. And I think that's actually on my successor list to get done. Philippe will be looking at that as he arrives as well and can work on operational excellence and obviously try to trim the cost base and the margins even further. And maybe on the CET1, Patrick?

Yes. On the CET1, I think for now, we are at 12.8%. I think we are happy where we are. I think the 12% target we have is probably -- actually, we've always trended slightly above this level. So we have no plans to go back exactly to this level in the short term because we believe the current level is more or less appropriate. But I would like also to point out on the Slide 15, we have put in the results in the presentation that now we can see that this business post restructuring, post-merger, is generating significant capital surplus. So it will be on the upcoming quarters and years, it will be a Board decision of what is the right way to address this significant capital generation over the years if the environment remains as it stands and if the fundamentals of the business stays what they are. But indeed, it's an important point to take into account when looking at Ayvens today.

[Operator Instructions] The last question is from Owen Paterson with Jefferies.

It's Owen from Jefferies here. Just a couple of quick questions. First, technical clarification on the buyback. Will Societe Generale participate proportionately in the buyback to keep their shareholding at the same level? And then my second question is just the end of year increase in OpEx that you've signaled. You've spoken about a few moving parts in that already, the contingent liabilities, and it looks like some cost to achieve as well. Is there anything kind of underlying those? Is this kind of like a typical seasonal shift or not? Just a bit more color there would be good.

I think I'll leave both of these questions to Patrick to give on those.

So on the buyback, I cannot really speak for Societe Generale, but the buyback, the shares will be canceled. So if nothing is done, obviously, the shareholding of Societe Generale will increase, but the rest of the question needs to be asked to them actually to know exactly what they want to do. And the contingent consideration, so yes, if I understood well your question, yes, there is a positive effect of the contingent consideration, which is -- which will give us additional transformation charges that we need to take for the improvement of the business and even making further productivity gains in the overall organization. But it's also fair to say that the underlying cost of Q3 is rather low due to a number of accruals we need to make sure at the right level throughout the year. And also because post migration, we have a number of countries where there's a lot of operational improvement to be done, and we need to spend a bit of money in [indiscernible] to help them going through issues relating to customer satisfaction, which are coming from the merger and the fact that the habits of the customers have been changed through the merger of the organization in the various countries. That's why we say that there will be probably an increase in underlying OpEx in Q4. And that's why we are sticking to our full year guidance in terms of consumer.

There's a follow-up from Sharath Kumar with Deutsche Bank.

A quick follow-up on the CTA. Can you clarify that it will be still around the EUR 120 million levels that you guide to? Or are we talking about a higher CTA now in lieu of the one-off gains?

I think we remain with the EUR 120 million. There might be -- as Patrick just mentioned, there is a few things we might look at for Q4, but it will not be impacted significantly. That's all. We remain around the EUR 120 million for the year.

Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered.

Okay. Well, thank you all for your attention and for the questions. And as always, our Investor Relations team is ready to answer any further questions you may have. So don't hesitate. And thanks again. Thanks a lot for the years that has passed by with us. It's been a real pleasure. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Ayvens conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.