Ayvens (AYV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Mr. Gilles Momper, CFO, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this ALD Q3 2022 Trading Update Call. First of all, thank you for your attendance. I'll start with some highlights on the recent performance, and we'll provide an update about the expected acquisition of LeasePlan, then [indiscernible] will comment on our 9 months results in more details. And finally, I will say a few words on our outlook for 2022 and our revised guidance for the full year. Let's start by going directly to Slide 4. Since the beginning of the year, the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment has changed dramatically. We've seen several large interest rate hikes in a short period of time, showing inflation, raising concerns around energy prices and supplies and the move to a more recessionary outlook. Against this backdrop, ALD nevertheless, managed well. We continued to record an outstanding performance in the third quarter. Our funded fleet increased by a strong 5.2% versus 1 year ago. Adjusted for the impact of acquisitions, organic growth reached 2.8% despite continuing disruptions in supply chains and shortage of new cars. As a result of this situation, the used car markets remain buoyant. And in line with our anticipations, we are not seeing any signs of a normalization for the moment. And in our view, a normalization will not happen this year. Used car sales results per unit came in at EUR 3,149 on average for the first 9 months of '22, and this is much higher than the EUR 1,126 of the same period last year. Under these exceedingly favorable conditions, we generated exceptionally high profit in our car remarketing. We registered a net income group share of EUR 918 million, an increase of 50% compared to 9 months -- the 9 months of 2021. This record level reflects the solidity of our business model and our capacity to adjust promptly to unprecedented situations. It looks like 2022 will be another excellent year for ALD despite the challenging context, confirming our track record of profitable growth throughout the cycle. Let's go to Page 5. I would like to put our 2022 performance in a long-term perspective. ALD operates in a fast-growing market, underpinned by strong megatrends and our business model is extremely resilient. Let me illustrate that with a few numbers. Our funded fleet has grown by 7.5% per annum on average between 2007 and 2021. And you can see that we have been extremely resilient during acute periods of stress, such as 2008 and 2009, 2010 to 2012, where our fleet actually continued to grow. We also resisted well during COVID and more recently, despite the continuous disruptions in supply chains, which we have experienced for more than 2 years now, we have kept growing. We expect that our industry's long-term growth trend will continue, supported by the shift from ownership to usership, rising inflation and the transition to electric vehicles should also drive upwards the demand for car leasing. These trends will continue to underpin our fleet growth. In addition, we have highly promising new market segments in front of us, the retail market, of course, where car leasing still have a huge growth potential. But also the subscription market, where ALD is #1 in Germany with Fleetpool, we will be rolling out Fleetpool, simple, all inclusive and fully digital offering across Europe in the coming years. Light commercial vehicles are also an area that is highly promising, especially the last mile delivery segment. So as you can see, our industry's outlook over the long term is very attractive with structural growth ahead. Now let's take a look at the revenue trend linked to ALD's strong commercial performance. Over the past decade, our gross operating income excluding used car sales results, has outpaced that of our funded fleet at an impressive rate of 8% per annum on average. Our margin increased strongly over the long term, thanks to our scale, our leadership in innovation and digitalization and in sustainable mobility. ALD's access to funding is an important advantage. We can rely on diversified and competitive sources of funding to finance our expansion and invest into digital technology to serve our customers. Last but not least, we have proven our superior ability to manage our business through our different crisis. While continuously improving our operating efficiency, we have massively decreased our cost-to-income ratio by more than 8 points in 10 years, showing the best level of the industry, around 10 points better than our peers. Our long-term financial performance also relies on prudent risk management practices. We maintain strict underwriting criterias and a conservative residual value risk approach to protect our future profits. Looking ahead, I'm confident that we can continue these in currency trends and even accelerate them in the future. Let's now go to Page 6 and have a look at the expected acquisition of LeasePlan. Today, ALD is in an excellent position to embark on a step change represented by the highly strategic and synergistic acquisition of LeasePlan. We achieved the many milestones since we signed the MOU for the acquisition of LeasePlan last January. We successfully completed the consultation of our works council. In April, we signed a framework agreement and set up a department fully dedicated to prepare for an efficient and smooth integration of LeasePlan, and we have made good progress on all fronts. In particular, the regulatory and antitrust approval process are on track. And we, therefore, expect to launch the rights issue to fund the cash leg of the acquisition before the year-end of 2022 and closed the deal in Q1 2023. As we are progressing towards the completion of the deal, I'm delighted to feel the energy and the enthusiasm of both the ALD and the LeasePlan teams who can't wait to make this merger happen. The acquisition of Lease brand is a unique opportunity to create a leading mobility player. Thanks to our new scale, we will enhance our client offering and coverage. We will further drive the digital transformation of the industry and its transition to more sustainable mobility solutions. With LeasePlan, we will further reinforce our operational efficiency, and I'm confident that this transaction will bring much value to our clients, our partners, employees and, of course, our shareholders. I'll now hand over to Gil, who will comment on our 9 months 2022 operational and financial results. So let's move to Page 8.

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everybody. So the first 9 months were strong in terms of commercial dynamics despite the continuing supply constraints and the shortage of new cars. Our funded fleet reached 1,450,000 vehicles at the end of September 2022, plus 5.2% growth compared to a year ago. The organic growth over the period, excluding the acquisitions of Fleetpool and Ban Sabadell Renting was 2.8%. And since the end of 2021, our funded fleet grew by 1.9%, which means that we are on track to achieve our plus 2%, plus 4% growth guidance this year. Our order book is somehow leveling off remaining at peak levels. And this makes us confident about the future funded fleet growth. ALD is maintaining its position as a leader in electrification in Europe. Our share of EV in new passenger car registrations reached 27% over the last 12 months compared to an estimated 22% in the largest European markets in September 22. I propose to go to the Page 9. There's a lot of information this quarter, so a bit of a longer speech. And let's have a deeper look at our operating results and start with our margins with a special focus on the leasing contract margin. As in Q2, our leasing contract margin has been positively impacted by several nonoperating items. These nonoperating items taken together in over 9 months, have increased our leasing contract margins by EUR 225 million as of September year-to-date, of which EUR 109 million booked in Q3. The first nonoperating item relates to Turkey, where we operate a fleet of around 12,000 vehicles. You may remember that we have revalued our asset base in Q2, which has had a positive impact of EUR 40 million in Q2 and a EUR 20 million impact in Q3. This revaluation corresponds to an anticipation of future used car sales profits, which means lower used car sales results from our operations in Turkey going forward. The second nonoperating items relate to our fleet revaluation procedure and the buoyant used car market that we are currently enjoying. You may remember that we have always tried to be as prudent as possible in our fleet revaluation exercise as we were not accounting for any future potential used car sales profit in our depreciation curves. But given the significance and the materiality of these potential gains on used cars, we are stopping the depreciation of vehicles, when, for instance, the net book value are already below the expected used car prices, and we are doing this since Q2. This depreciation adjustment on top of our normal fleet revaluation exercise is leading us to recognize EUR 190 million of positive contribution to the contract leasing margin over the 9 months in 2022. The third and last nonoperating item relates to our prudent provisioning booked in Q1 in relation to the situation in Ukraine. I can comment that for the time being, the situation remains under control. Our fleet in Ukraine has slightly decreased to 4,700 vehicles at the end of September. Our provisioning rate is prudent as we are covering 50% of our rental fleet and also customer receivables. When 1 excludes all these nonoperating items, our Leasing & Services margin increased by 3.3% compared to the first 9 months of last year, with a good resilience of services margins despite the inflationary situation we're in. We don't see yet the full impact of inflation on our cost of services. So let's go now to Page 10, where I will explain in greater detail the mechanism of reduction in depreciation costs and its impact on the used car sales results. So just to explain, we are limiting -- on Page 10, we are limiting the depreciation curve of those vehicles whose sales proceeds are forecasted to be significantly in excess of the net book value. The reduction in the depreciation costs compared to the contractual depreciation schedule is illustrated in the graph on the left-hand side of this slide. And this lifted our leasing contract margins by EUR 63 million in Q2, EUR 67 million in Q3, which you can see on the graph in the middle. And this results in a higher book value for these vehicles. Hence, a lower used car sales results when we sell the cars. And we've recorded this negative impact on the used car sales for the first time in Q3. If we had not reduced our depreciation curve -- if we had not reduced our depreciation costs, sorry, in Q2. Our used car sales results would have been higher by EUR 38 million in Q3, which illustrates, by the way, the continuing excellent used car market we are seeing. The depreciation cost that we are anticipating in our leasing contract margins in Q2 and Q3 would otherwise have been part of the used car sales results registered in later quarters. So all things being equal, assuming unchanged used car market conditions, unchanged volume, unchanged fleet mix, it means that our used cancels results will decrease from the high level observed in Q3 and observed in Q2 and Q3 of this year, while our leasing contract margin will be higher. So let's go to the used car sales results on Slide 11. The contribution from used car sales results reached a new record in September 2022 at EUR 624 million, up from EUR 278 million in the same period last year. And this record result is driven by ongoing supply shortage and highly favorable used car prices. The average margin on used car came in at EUR 3,149 per unit, compared to EUR 1,126 per unit over the same period last year. So again, as I've just explained, the decrease of used car sales results in Q3 compared to Q2 does not result from a change in market conditions but from the mechanism of reduction in depreciation costs. And without this impact, our used car sales results per unit would instead have increased further in Q3 to an estimated EUR 3,607 per unit. So this is the reason why we raised our full year used car sales guidance per unit to above EUR 2,800. Although this is below the 9-month average, taking into account the change of depreciation rules, this level of guidance reflects a continued strong used car market in Q4. Just the last comment on the volumes. We sold 198,000 cars and this decrease in volume compared to last year is mainly due to the rising number of contract extensions and used car leases. So let's go now on Page 12 and have a look at the rest of the P&L. On our operating expenses, they reached EUR 624 million in September 2022. The increase compared to the same period last year is mainly due to 3 exceptional items. The first 1 is the exceptional spendings in relation to the acquisition of LeasePlan. These costs have increased from EUR 10 million in Q1, EUR 31 million in Q2 and EUR 43 million in Q3. And this is reflecting the intensification of works linked to the closing of the acquisition, the antitrust filings, our future regulated financial holding company status and the preparation work for the integration of LeasePlan. Given these trends, we are raising the full year 2022 estimate of these preparation costs circa EUR 120 million from EUR 100 million on which we had guided in August. And these costs are part of the restructuring costs of EUR 475 million, which we announced earlier this year. The second exceptional items on the OpEx is the fact that we have consolidated for the first time Sabadell Renting and for fleet management U.K. and hence, we have recognized the OpEx for these entity. And the Scope effect represents EUR 10 million as of September year-to-date. And the third item on the OpEx and like similarly to what we have seen in the previous quarter, the exceptionally high used car sales results mechanically lead to a further increase in our variable compensation provisions and including some employee profit sharing in some countries. And despite these exceptional items, our cost income remains under control at 49.6% and can say by far the best in the industry. The cost of risk of EUR 32 million in the 9 months is -- remains low, although up compared to 1 year ago. And last year's level was particularly low. The net income group share reached a record level of EUR 918 million, up 50% compared to last year and despite the normalization of our effective tax rate. And the following slides, 13, is a summary of what I've just commented on. So total margin up sharply to EUR 1.260 billion, an increase in OpEx, strongly driven by the LeasePlan related costs were EUR 84 million, a continued low cost of risk and the normalization of our tax rate at around 25%, and despite of which a record net income of EUR 918 million, up 50%. And to finish, let me add a few words on the current geopolitical environment. I already mentioned early Ukraine earlier for which we have a prudent provision. I just want to add a few words on Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, where ALD operates 17,000 vehicles as of September 2022, which is down for 20,000 vehicles at the end of last year as we are not concluding any new commercial transactions in these entities. The total equity in these 3 entities amounts to EUR 211 million, compared to EUR 135 million at the end of 2021. This variance being primarily due to the higher ruble exchange rate. And due to the rising geopolitical tensions, you know that Russia has put in place temporary restrictions for the payment of dividends by Russian companies to their following shareholders. The payment of such dividends are subject to prior authorization from the Central Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance. And in October 2022, ALD has filed a request for a dividend payment, which is currently being reviewed by the relevant authorities. So we are, of course, continuing to monitor closely our operations in these countries. I'll now hand over to Tim, who will comment on our 2022 outlook on Slide 15.

Thank you, Gill. As you have seen, we posted record financial results in the 9 months of 2022, which confirmed the relevance of our business model and our agility in an evolving environment. I'm really proud of all our leadership teams and employees who made this happen. We believe that the disruptions in the supply chains for the automotive sector will continue into the next year. Therefore, we maintain our funded fee growth guidance of between 2% and 4%. We're also expecting the highly favorable situation in used car markets to persist in the near term. However, as Gill just explained, we already recognized in our 9 months leasing margin, some used car sales results that would otherwise have been incurred in H2 or later. Therefore, we are now guiding on used car sales results per vehicle above EUR 2,800, which is below the 9 months average, but still a high number in absolute terms. Finally, we maintain our dividend payout ratio of guidance between 50% and 60% of net income group share. I'd like to add here that while the closing of the LeasePlan acquisition is expected before the payment of the 2022 dividend, the current shareholders of LeasePlan will not benefit from this dividend. This concludes our presentation. Thank you for listening, and we are now ready to take any questions you may have.

Thank you much to Mr. Albertsen. [Operator Instructions] First question is coming from Sanjay Bhagwani coming from Citi.

First of all, congratulations on the results and also a very comprehensive presentation around the prudent practices and the explanation on the depreciation part. So I have a couple of questions. My first question is a bit of a bigger picture question. So I mean, what we see is like you have been beating the market expectations as long as I remember, since quarter 2020, it's been like early nearly 2 years now. And the -- what we see is like looking at the share price performance, somehow market does not seem to be rewarding our shareholders as much as they should. So given that you are making these exceptionally high income, are you planning to like revisit your cash return policy? I understand you have confirmed your 50% to 60% dividend payout ratio. But given that the excess cash that you are making by selling these used cars, which the market is not rewarding, is there a possibility that you either consider, let's say, a special dividend or some sort of buyback or in fact, let's say, instead of raising EUR 1.3 billion of price issue, if you may probably require less given these exceptional profits. So that is my first question, and I'll follow up with the next update.

Thank you, Sanjay. Yes, I can start on perhaps Gill can comment on a few things. I guess, I mean it is true that our used car sales result is not really taking into account, I guess, in the valuations. I would say there's no plan of a specific dividend, I guess the 50% to 60% that we are guiding on is already very interesting. And it's too early to say still in terms of the right issue on the, let's say, the amount of the right issue to where there would be quite a few moving, let's say, parts of that. And when we get to the right issue, we will be more specific on that part. But obviously, I guess, it's important to state, as we just said or just to mention that when we talked about the dividend for 2022. the payment, if it happens, let's say, after closing, obviously, the current shareholders of LeasePlan will not be part of that dividend payout. I don't know, Gill, if you want to add something to that.

Yes, I guess, just to add a few things. I mean we have been quite consistent in our dividend policy over the few over the last years, quite predictive. I would say, Sanjay, and we've always been paying our dividend based on our results. And these exceptional results, we don't -- we'll go to the current shareholders to come back on your questions on the capital increase. As Tim said, there are some other elements of considerations to be taken into account when calibrating the size of the capital increase, including the [FWA] calculation going forward, which will be, of course, an element, a key element for new ALD going forward.

That is very helpful. So my second question is a bit on the market dynamics. So what we are hearing from the carmakers is like they are targeting the profitable channel mix. So if most of them want to reduce that business with, let's say, the fleet and they want to move to more profitable segments like the retail. And in this, what we are finding another trend is like some rental company, for example, large sourcing cars from the Chinese carmakers. So are you also seeing a similar trend change or the -- yes, in the leading market as well? And are you seeing any car makers, they are actually wanting to renegotiate the discount that they offer you, given the messaging from all of that is to focus on the pricing and the discounts to the fleet.

Yes, Sanjay, that's a good question, and thanks for that. So I guess it's true that we know that when you -- when the car manufacturers look at the market, obviously, is typically the rental cars is probably where they make the less money typically. And hence, they have slowed down the sales to these segments substantially over the last years. And you're right, you have seen that 6 have announced quite a big deal with the Chinese manufacturers. And I think, obviously, That's, of course, a way for the car rental companies to overcome that channel that they have there. We don't see the same, let's say, dynamics in our market. First of all, we are serving quite a lot of the companies that, obviously, the car manufactures see as their customers as well. And typically, the company cars are typically premium cars and quite well specked and hence, with good margins for the manufacturers as well. So we are not seeing that trend. I would say, even if you look at our flex fleet, as you have seen, it's growing quite fast. We are still able to source cars for that as well. Now having said that, it's also clear that we're also looking towards the Chinese manufacturers and which obviously are bringing in interesting electric vehicles these days and at competitive prices. And it will be part of the European market in the next coming years. And hence, we are looking at that with interest as well. So I would say, for the time being, plus, you know that close to 30% of our business is coming through partnerships with this -- with manufacturers. And hence, again, they are not, let's say, disfavoring our, let's say, capacity to source cars through these channels. And I guess last but not least, in terms of renegotiating deals, I think we have actually -- we have done all our deals with the main manufacturers and been able to conclude for 2022 decent agreements. When you look at the discounts, obviously, the discount is typically what we've put into the contract customers. And that discount have obviously been less in the last 12 to 18 months than we have been used to. And I think that's a matter of getting back to a more normal supply and demand situation, and we think that will happen. We know that the new car production will eventually come back online in the next probably 6 to 12 months. And at that point, we know that the competition will be quite tough, and we will be able to probably get back to the normal levels. But today, we are pushing, let's say, the less discount towards our customers, which obviously means that our rates are coming up slightly on that particular part, but it's still accepted by the market. And obviously, it's the same situation. If you are not going through us, you get absolutely no discount with us, you actually still get some. And again, we have a good relationship with all the car manufacturers. And of course, with the coming acquisition of LeasePlan, we, of course, becomes even more important to the manufacturers than we are today. I hope that answers your question, Sanjay.

Yes. That is very helpful. With regards to the Chinese carmakers, this could actually a net-net positive for you. I mean, given that you may get much more economical deal from those guys. Is that right to say?

Yes, I think we do believe that the Chinese manufacturers, I mean, it's still early days for them in Europe. But obviously, we think they will be part of the normal market in Europe over time. And you could say that the Chinese is a bit ahead of the European industry in terms of electric vehicles. They have been working hard on this for the last 8 to 10 years. They have quite a strong technology around batteries. And obviously, the quality of the cars is much better than you would have seen some years ago. So clearly, it's also a part of our consideration in terms of our suppliers and our partners in this area. And we definitely believe that, first of all, we probably will be partnering with some of those, like we have partnered with Tesla and Porsche and the others. And on top of that, it will be part of the car policies, I guess, going forward as well, at least to some extent.

And my last question is on the reduction of the depreciation. So I figure that you also are mentioning that the leading contract margins will again get a bit higher because of the reduction of the depreciation. So, so far, let's say, this reduction of depreciation that you will be recording in Q4, is this in anticipation of the car that you are going to sell in quarter 1 next year? So just trying to understand because what you sell in quarter 4 for the used car, that is anyways going to fly into the used car sales margin?

You're right. Sanjay, it's an anticipation of future used car sales results, which are embedded in our fleet revaluation procedure. You know that we are doing a revaluation of our fleet twice a year. And in this exercise, we are still trying to be as conservative as possible when assessing the prices of future used car sales. But yes, you're right. It's somehow in anticipation of the coming quarters used car sales. So as I said in my comments, if things remain -- if the used car sales remain buoyant and volume high, et cetera, we'll see the same kind of impact in Q4, which is illustrated in the slide on the slide pack.

We'll now go to Kiri Vijayarajah calling from HSBC.

A couple of questions from my side and then just a quick clarification. So firstly, going back to the cost of risk. That's been picking up now for 3 quarters in a row, and I appreciate that's not a very, very low base. But just can we have some more color on where the credit quality deterioration might be coming from. Given we're not in recession yet, but of course, in a few months' time, we could well be. So where do you think that cost of risk number could go in 2023? And then in terms of the EUR 120 million integration preparation costs you're incurring this year, how much of that falls away to 2023? I'm presuming some of the costs do carry over into the first or second quarter of next year. So how should we be thinking about modeling that? And then just a quick clarification on what you said, if someone were to participate in the rights issue in November, December, will they be eligible for the 2022 dividend that's going to be payable in spring or not? Just to clarify, please.

Okay. So I'll start with your question -- hi, Kiri, Gilles speaking. So regarding the cost of risk, it remains at, I would say, close to historical low levels. We are not -- I mean, yes, it increases but from a very, very low base last year. And also, I just want to remind that we still have on our balance sheet, the IFRS 9 forward-looking provision that we did book in 2020, which we are currently revaluating but you would agree with me that it's very -- it's small [bear] compared to what we have historically seen in terms of cost of risk. I mean our average cost of risk has always been around 24, 25 bps. We are well below here. So to answer your question on 2023, it's early stage to say, but I just want to remind you the average of the cost of risk historically. And just -- also another reference point. I mean, if you would enter in a big recession, I mean, our reference so far has been the great financial crisis, where we peaked at 40, 45 bps of cost of risk. Regarding the EUR 120 million of LeasePlan preparation costs, as I said in the comments, they are part of this EUR 475 million that we announced in January for the deal. You remember, we said that we would incur some integration costs and of course, acquisition costs related to the operations. So it's these things. I mean, it's all the costs associated to the transactions. And as you can see, these costs are increasing as we are more and more into the integration part and also some costs associated to the fact that ALD S.A. will become a regulated entity. It's not -- I mean, we also have some procedure to put in place some routine production routines to put in place for our own production. We've always said that we were regulated as part of Societe Generale, but now we'll be regulated on a stand-alone basis. So this EUR 120 million of costs are part of that. So -- and they are part of this envelope of EUR 475 million. So the timing and the phasing of this envelope over the 3 years, I mean, remain -- I mean, you can assume that it will be a similar amount next year and the following year and then decreasing. I hear I'm not quoting. I'm not engaging anything, but that would be a good feeling based and depending on the timing of the operation. Tim, you want to.

Yes. On your third question, Kiri. I think the only 1 who will be excluded is the current LeasePlan shareholders. So any new investors coming in through the right issue would be eligible for the dividend payment.

We'll now move to Mr. Matthew Clark calling from [indiscernible].

So a couple of questions. Firstly, coming back to the previous -- an earlier question on the depreciation look-forward period. I think in the second quarter, you said the lower depreciation -- the depreciation holiday then related to contracts maturing in the second half of this year. What precise period did the lower depreciation charge in the third quarter related to? Are you really operating with like a 6-month rolling look forward window when you assess whether to skip the depreciation charge or not? Or any more precise guidance on the look-forward period that would be helpful. And then the second question is just on the volume of used car sales, which has obviously dropped in recent quarters. How should we think about that going forward? And when would you expect that to pick up? Because presumably with contract extensions, you still have to ultimately sell them at some point. So what -- in your mind is the time line to see the volume of used cars sales pick up back towards a more normalized level? And then final question is on the ECB approval as a banking financial holding company, I think, it's the format. Could you maybe give us some guidance on when do you think that stage will be achieved? And presumably, that's not -- or could you confirm whether that is or isn't a precondition for the merger to go ahead?

Thanks, Matthew. Maybe I can start with your question 2 and 3, and then I hand over to Gill to cover the depreciation question. So on the ECB, I mean, we are on track obviously, with everything we are supposed to do and obviously, that's a pre -- there's a condition precedent for the deal, first of all. And as I said, we anticipate to do the right issue in this year, which means that we would have, obviously, the clearance from the ECB before that. So we are well on track on that part. On the volumes of used cars, I think probably what you will see, I mean, -- there's no doubt, we have a very high order bank. Even if it's plateauing a bit now, we still have more or less the double size of what we normally would have in terms of order bank. And when the new car starts coming, obviously, we anticipate that the order bank will come down quite quickly and which would eventually add to the volumes of used cars. So I mean, again, it's very difficult. We have I think now for 18 months, we're saying we anticipate in the next 6 months that things will normalize, which has not happened. But obviously, it looks like we will start seeing the normalization of new car sales coming in, let's say, in Q2, Q3 next year. And hence, we will start seeing more used cars coming to the market. Having said that, what we have done in the last also more or less 2 years, we have worked very hard to actually do second life lease so actually take our used cars and bring them on to a new segment or new client another round. And in some of our countries this year because there is a very shortage of new cars, actually, the percentage of used car sales or used car leasing have been quite massive. And obviously, it's part of a business model that we think we should carry into the future. So obviously, you will probably see that the number -- the volumes as such will not be increasing immensely over the next years despite we are growing, let's say, the fleet as such, but probably staying quite stable in that part and you will then see obviously a bigger part of our used cars going on a second or even a third life lease as such. So I hope that gives you some indication on that. And maybe on the depreciation, Gill?

So you have seen indeed that on the depreciation margin, we have had an adjustment of EUR 63 million and in Q2 and EUR 67 million in Q3. So EUR 130 million overall for Q2 and Q3. And the negative, which has a negative impact in Q3 for EUR 38 million already. And I'm just referring back to the slide that I was commenting on. If you look at the little blue box on the used car sales adjustments, you can guess that we are anticipating this impact to, roughly speaking, doubled in Q4, which means that it's almost a 6-month impact, a 2-quarter impact. But the exercise is done on the whole fleet and for the whole sales. But roughly speaking, you can say that it's over the 6 months. And it also depends on the expectations on the sales price because if, of course, tomorrow, the used car sales results and margin would double, then we would need to stop much earlier the depreciation of cars. On the contrary, if the used car sales would -- is a real used car sales margin or prices would decrease, then we would less adjust the depreciation costs. I hope I'm clear.

I think so. I think the 6 months.

[ Proxy ]. That's the answer.

The next question is coming from Dominic Edridge from Deutsche Bank.

Firstly, just a clarification on the hyperinflation effect. I think it's about EUR 21 million in Q3, is that sort of effect we should think about going forward as long as Turkish CPI is where it is? Or are there some other effects we should be thinking about there? Secondly, was just a more general question on leasing market share since I think it's around -- since about 2010, if not before, has risen very quickly in many countries. How much of that do you feel is due to the fact that we obviously did have very low interest rates for a while. And obviously, now with the cost of ownership, and interest rates going back up again, do you feel there's the potential for a shift back towards ownership? I know you're very positive about the outlook for leasing, but do you feel this sort of the change in the interest rate environment could alter things at least in the short run. And then just the last question was just looking at your long-term chart, it looks like the 2009 fleet was basically flat on '08, if you could just confirm that. And just in terms of how you think about in a recessionary period, I'm assuming you do write less business in that period of time. But if you just look at your current order book, where do you think you can grow? I mean, have you got any sort of indication of what you would grow next year, just assuming there's a big tail off in new business?

Thanks, Dominic. Well, let me take the 2 last questions and then Gill will cover the hyperinflation question. I think the 2 and 3 somehow goes together at the end of the day. But -- so it's true that in 2009, our fleet was quite flat compared to '08. Obviously, I think the shock that came in with the financial crisis, obviously, had an impact as well on our customers. And we did not defleet, which I think at least was quite an achievement in that environment. And obviously, we saw quite a few companies going bankrupt and handing back their cars. So obviously, there were segments that were growing already at that time. So -- but that's true, it was flat from 2008 to 2009. Now on the leasing market share, I think what happened actually in 2008, '09 is that we saw new companies coming into the market, and we saw new segments coming into the market, in particular, the SME segments coming in. And I think we have been doing this business for many years now, and we have had, I think, all kinds of interest rates from 0% to, I guess, 10% and 12%. And obviously, it has no impact on the demand as such because the way the customers are looking at it is the total cost of ownership. And if interest rates goes up with us, if you go down to the bank to take a loan, the interest rate will be the same in. So as long as we have a competitive funding in our contract. It's -- so I think that's not what is driving this market. First of all, I think actually what is driving this market is the convenience, the easiness of having cars, taking away the risk and all the kinds of things that comes with getting into business with us is what is driving this. And obviously, like I said in my initial speech here now that, obviously, we think there is a lot of structural growth because, obviously, first of all, if you look at the SMEs that guide by far, not, let's say, completely penetrated yet in Europe, for example. And obviously, the private lease market is growing very fast. For all the same reasons that the comp has been doing it in the past. So even in a recessionary situation, we do believe that structurally, there is a total shift from ownership to usership that we will still be growing, of course, maybe not at the same rate if we are in a very buoyant economy. But obviously, we see that there is so much structural growth ahead of us that we are quite confident on our growth opportunities going forward. Hyperinflation, Gill?

Yes. So an easy answer would be to say that it depends on the inflation in Turkey. Of course, the impact that we have seen in Q2 was embarking it was a cumulative effect for Q1 and Q2 on the P&L side. So it's widely depend on the real inflation in Turkey going. And if inflation would again increase 100%, then we would have this effect because we need to adjust the -- to revalue the assets and the liabilities when the cumulative inflation rate for the 3-year period exceeds 100%. So I've not checked -- I don't have top of my head inflation situation currently in Turkey, but it's based on that. But keep in mind that Q2 was a cumulative effect of Q1 and Q2.

Okay. That's great. And just -- sorry, 1 other question. I know there's a few other jurisdictions globally with hyperinflation out there. Are there any other ones you would be highlighting as having a potential effect for you going forward? Or is it just Turkey at the current time?

No. At this stage, it's just Turkey.

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to the host for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

Okay. Well, thank you all for your attention and your questions. It's always very pleasant. And as always, our IR team stands ready to answer any further questions you might have. So don't hesitate to contact them. Thanks a lot, and have a good day.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's presentation. We thank for your attendance. You may now disconnect.