B2 Impact ASA (B2I) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 presentation for B2Holding. I am Erik Johnsen, the Group CEO. And with me today, I have CFO, André Adolfsen. Let's come to the next slide for the quarterly highlights. It's been a good quarter again for B2Holding. The positive trend that we have seen in Unsecured collection continued in the second quarter with collection performance of 107.6% of the latest curves. For the Secured business, we had a cash collection of NOK 326 million, which include REO sales of NOK 104 million at a margin of 45%. The margin year-to-date on REO sales is 34%. We continue to focus on cost efficiency to mitigate inflation and higher funding costs. Our focus is first and foremost, to stabilize cost but at the same time, be able to grow the business going forward. On the investment side, we see a market changing market dynamics where the industry is adapting to an increase of cost funding. For the transaction carried out in the second quarter, we are comfortable with expected increase in return levels on the portfolio acquired. The portfolio acquired has been very good. And we see that the IRRs are at the levels that we want, including then the higher funding cost. We have invested and committed NOK 2.2 billion at the end of the second quarter, which includes NOK 435 million for instant that was post in January but signed in December. Now even adjusted for this transaction, we are well on track to reach our investment targets between NOK 2 billion to NOK 3 billion for 2023. Our buyback program is progressing well. We carried out a block trade in late of June 10 million shares of NOK 660 and we have so far brought back 3.3% of outstanding shares up until today. The group has ample investment capacity in combination with leverage ratio among the lowest in the industry. We have also amended our revolving credit facility, which will give us additional flexibility and increased liquidity. The main content of the amendments are that we now have full flexibility to take out the upcoming bond of EUR 200 million, which matures in May 2025, then '24 with RCF and EUR 100 million of the facility line, which originally matured in December 2023 is extended to June 2025, which is the final maturity date of our existing RCF. Andre will get back to this later also. As previously mentioned, let's go to the next slide, by the way, for the key figures. As previously mentioned in our cash collections are up year-over-year and ended at NOK 1.5 billion and we reported a record high EBITDA of NOK 1.15 billion for the second quarter. It should be mentioned that the collection that we have in the second quarter goes into the third quarter and seems to be following the same trend in the quarter. The REO sales were NOK 104 million with the contribution of a high margin. Adjusted net profit was NOK 182 million, not also due to a good performance in the quarter. Investment ended NOK 795 million at the second quarter, which is a level that we are very satisfied with in order to reach our investment targets for the full year. We are also satisfied with the expected return on investment that take into account to change cost structures in the market. Now going to the next slide. We continue to see asset growth in the first quarter of 2023. Despite in cash EBITDA in Q4 can explain by REO sales that was collected at the end of the year that was expected in Q1 and thus, looking at the average cash EBITDA for the 2 months quarter is more correct. And we see that the cash EBITDA is showing solid performance. The cash EBITDA this quarter was NOK 1,151 million and the level is the highest ever in the history of B2Holding. The net interest-bearing debt has mainly increased due to weakening of the Norwegian currency NOK. You will also see that Andre will address the cash flow later in his presentation. Now go to the next slide. We continue to see a trend with higher collection in Unsecured. I want to highlight our improved legal strategies through better use of analytical tools and also the increased use of self-service channel by our customers. As mentioned, we are able to keep costs stable despite increase in collection volumes, pointing to the economies of scale and cost efficiency we can achieve in our core markets. We are still focusing on reducing footprint in countries that has -- that are operating below scale with the aim of concentrating capital in fewer markets. This is also reflected in our purchases year-to-date. This is an execution of the strategy to reduce operational units and focus on scale in core markets. The sale of Bulgaria is progressing according to plan, and we expect to close transaction in near future. As mentioned previously, a substantial part payment has already been received, significantly reducing transaction risk. And with that, I will leave then the word over to you, Andre, who will take more details on the financial performance.

Thank you, Erik, and good morning, everyone. Before we go into the financial details, I would like to highlight the currency impact in the quarter. We had a significant impact from a strengthened euro versus NOK during this quarter. And the impact on the P&L was 16% compared to the same quarter last year using year-to-date average rates. In terms of the balance sheet, end rates are used and not are the freight, and the impact in the quarter was 13% compared to last year, positive 13%. So to be able to guide you through the underlying business performance today, I will consequently comment only on deviations compared with previous periods in constant currency throughout the presentation. Now moving into the financial details. The second quarter was a very strong quarter in terms of collection performance with a slightly different composition compared to what we have seen in previous periods. Unsecured performance came in at a very strong 107.6% of the latest forecast and is up 11% in constant currency. Secured cash collections came in at NOK 326 million, which includes REO sales of NOK 104 million at a premium to book value of 45%. In the quarter, we had overperformance compared to the latest forecast on both Unsecured and Secured portfolios, which has had a significant impact -- positive impact on the adjusted EBIT and net profit. In particular, the Secured collections were made at higher values and earlier than expected in the forecast resulting in a net gain, notably higher than previous periods. Comparing to the second quarter of last year, we have seen somewhat lower Secured cash collections in constant FX but despite this, we have seen a strong cash EBITDA growth of 5% in -- sorry, 6% in constant currency. This is driven by an increased investment level in our Unsecured portfolios over the last 12 months, in combination with cost reductions and improved collection efficiency, as mentioned by Erik earlier. The composition of collections are now more skewed towards Unsecured, in line with our communicated investment strategy. The underlying operating expenses in the quarter was up 3% compared to collection growth of 5% and I will elaborate more on the operating expenses later in the presentation. The net profit was impacted by higher interest expenses compared to last year driven by the sharp increase in floating interest rates. Interest expenses in the quarter was NOK 236 million compared to NOK 223 million in the previous quarter, which is an increase of 4% in constant currency. Important to note that the blended margin of the company's outstanding debt was [ 5.16% ] in the quarter, which is in line with previous periods and down compared to the beginning of 2020. Portfolio investments came in at NOK 795 million for the quarter and with expected returns compensating for the increased cost of funding on the front book. Over the last 12 months, we have reported investments over NOK 2.7 billion or around 50% up in that period. And so far this year, we have spent and committed investments, as Erik touched upon, of NOK 2.2 billion, well on track to reach our target range of NOK 2.5 billion to NOK 3 billion for the full year. Moving to the next slide and collection performance. Unsecured again came in at a very strong 107.6% of the latest forecast. And this is 11% up compared to last year in constant currency, driven by higher investment volumes and improved collection efficiency. Secured collections continue at a stable level despite a few new investments. The cash collections, including REOs and joint ventures was NOK 326 million for the quarter, which is 6% down year-over-year in constant FX, but up 18% sequentially. REO sales was -- came in at NOK 104 million, slightly down in constant FX year-over-year, but with a strong margin to book value of 45%. Erik touched upon this earlier as well, but we do see a strong collection trend also going into the third quarter and we expect to see collections above the forecast also for the remainder of 2023, but at a slightly lower rate than what we saw in the second quarter. Moving to the next page, the cash flow. The cash earnings for the quarter came in at NOK 60 million which is adjusted for portfolio investments, financial expenses and tax. The reported leverage was 2.5, but in constant currency, the ratio was 2.29. We are very pleased to see that the operational cash flow is at a level where we can invest to grow the business without increasing the leverage. Moving to next page and the operating expenses. Over the last year, inflation has put pressure on our cost base. B2 has been able to mitigate this pressure over the last 12 months, and we continue to see further improvements reflected in this quarter. Both cash revenue and operating expenses are up 7% over the last 12 months, resulting in a maintained operating margin for that -- for the period. During the second quarter, we have seen revenue coming up 5% with a corresponding OpEx increase of 3%, resulting in a cash EBITDA growth of 6% in the quarter. The OpEx increase is driven by legal expenses related to collections and is volume-driven. While the personnel and other expenses are in line with last year. As mentioned also in the first quarter, the group has already initiated actions to contain inflationary pressure and have a strong focus on cost control. In the quarter, we booked also NRIs related to some of these cost initiatives across the group, where the majority of the costs are related to closing down our loan receivable business in Poland and reduction of personnel. The closing of the loan receivable business alone will have an annual impact on cost of NOK 35 million to NOK 40 million going forward. We can move to the next page in the portfolio investments. Again, the investments in the quarter came in at NOK 795 million, and the investments over the last 12 months was NOK 2.7 billion. The result is an increase in ERC in constant currency of 6%, which has been achieved without an increase in leverage. We estimate the remaining collections are now composed or more skewed towards Unsecured, making up almost 80% of the remaining collections. In addition to the investments in the first half of the year, we have signed investments for the remainder of the year, adding up to commitments of NOK 2.2 billion for the full year, again, well on track to reach our communicated targets. Next page, please. As touched upon by Erik earlier today. we have seen a notable deleveraging of the business over the last 3 years. We have consequently been able to repay 4 of our outstanding bonds and have issued only 1 new bond in the same period. The RCF has also been renegotiated at more favorable terms and the outcome is a blended margin which is down compared to the beginning of 2020, as demonstrated in the graph on the right-hand side. The recent increase in interest expense, as you can see from the graph, is driven only by the floating interest rate, which has also been mitigated to some extent by a hedging ratio of 52%. Moving to next slide, Slide 14. Now we are very pleased to announce that we have reached an agreement to amend the RCF with increased flexibility and duration. We now have full flexibility to refinance the upcoming maturity in 2024 of EUR 200 million and we have extended the EUR 100 million facility line under the RCF during this year. In full EUR 610 million RCF now consequently matures in 2025. Available liquidity currently stands at around NOK 400 million plus expected cash earnings in the coming quarters and the remaining cash from the sale of Bulgaria expected to close during the third quarter, which leaves us ample room to our investment targets for the year and next year. And with that, I leave the word back to you, Erik.

Thank you, Andre. Now the key takeaways for the quarters and goals going forward. We have had a solid underlying collection performance and the pace in Q2 seems to continue the same trend into Q3. We are reducing footprint and concentrating capital in fewer markets, thereby achieving operational efficiency and scale that is now also making its mark into the numbers. We have a sound investment capacity in combination with low leverage. And as Andre said, we are able to grow our ERC without growing the leverage, which is very positive. We have initiated several cost mitigating actions to reduce the impact of inflationary pressure. This will continue into the next quarters. And we will maintain capital discipline. And we are already committed capital for NOK 1.1 billion for the rest of the year. We see that also the amended RCF, it gives us increased flexibility going forward. And with that, we open then for a Q&A session.

Thank you, both. Then we will start with the questions. We will start on with Håkon Astrup from DNB, who have a few questions. First one is, do I understand you correctly that prices reflect the current rate environment also for the forward flow volumes acquired this quarter? Or should we expect a lag on forward flows as you need to enter into new agreements?

I would say that the forward flow agreements now is performing very well and also is reflecting what we see on the new interest levels as well as cost levels.

Then we have a few questions here from Gustav Larsson, Arctic. This collection performance equally strong in all markets? And any comment on differences between geographies.

Generally, we do not comment on each of the markets separately. We can say that there are differences between the different markets. But this is also one of the things that is good. Sometimes it's 1 market that is outperforming 1 quarter, next quarter, it's another market. Again, the same countries that overperformed very well last quarter, it's not the same countries that is outperforming massively this quarter, which makes the stability in our old performance quarter-by-quarter as we have good performance in many quarters, but it's fluctuating a little bit between the quarters.

I can add on the Unsecured performance, which was very strong in the quarter, that most of the markets we have seen performing well are continuing to performing well. But we've seen improvements based on actions taken in some of the other markets, which has improved the performance in those markets and consequently reflected in the overperformance that we've seen in the quarter.

Then an additional question from Gustav. With the NOK 2.2 billion already invested committed in the first half of 2023 is guidance of NOK 2.5 billion to NOK 3 billion still relevant? I guess to think it's a bit on the conservative side.

It's a level we're comfortable with in the current environment to maintain leverage at the same level, which is -- or at least not increased leverage too much. It's an important factor for us. We believe this is a level that should be enough to grow the business and maintain leverage at a comfortable level.

And then the last question for Gustav, you expect strong collection performance in Q3. Can you also say something about prospects for REO sales, especially in light of rising interest rates?

REO sales are a little bit bumpy and -- but we've also seen that we have been able to have a good REO performance so far into the quarter but everything that is anticipated to come in the third quarter goes over some going over the fourth quarter and so on. It's always a little bit difficult to say. But so far, the REO sales has been good in the quarter.

We can also say that we can expect to see the same level in the coming quarters at around NOK 100 million per quarter, but that could obviously increase if we're able to sell off some chunkier assets. But a level of NOK 100 million plus should be a stable minimum level that we expect to achieve in the second half.

Then we have a question from [indiscernible] from Nordea. Can you give some color on how the 108% collection performance to active forecast stack up versus original estimate depletion, closer to 100%, for example, or below or between 100% and 108%?

So we don't disclose the original forecast, currently at least. But looking at the original forecast, we can say that we're very happy with the performance we're seeing today.

Then we have a question from Ulrik Zürcher at Nordea. The interest rate was 8.6% in Q2, including the hedge given the quarter-to-date movements in floating rates and considering your hedge, what will it be in Q3 and Q4? Can you remind us of the duration of the current hedges?

So what we have communicated earlier is that the percentage would stay at 50% until the third quarter. And we have a maturity in the third quarter, and we expect to be at around 30% at year-end.

Very good. Then we continue with Vegard Toverud from Pareto. Erik, you told us in your presentation that expected strong performance appears to be maintained into Q3, although Andre noted that is -- it was at a slightly lower level. If the level was the same as in Q2, should we expect the same positive credit gain level in the P&L? Or will the P&L impact be less given again already taken in Q2?

The overperformance what we said at the 107.6% is slightly above what we anticipate going into Q3 and Q4. But we still believe that the performance going into Q3, we see the trend of collection is very good. When it comes to the old performance, as such, that depends on the [indiscernible] still we are seeing that we have an overperformance going into Q3, whether it's going to be at the same level, it's difficult to say. We are in the middle of the month. So it's difficult to say how the performance are in September. But so far, it looks good.

Then a few follow-ups from Vegard. One question related to the [indiscernible] committed and we've been -- and if it's tempting to increase the full year range? I guess that has been answered. But also a question, is it because most sellers still are trying to sell at 2022 prices?

I think if you look at the sellers of portfolios, the market is still trying to find an equilibrium in the pricing of portfolios. We have seen that some portfolio has been pulled back by the banks due to the fact that they're not achieving the price that they wanted. And it's coming back into the market at a later stage. Also it's difficult to say whether everybody -- all the banks have been doing the appropriate, say, provisioning on the books. But what we anticipate is that the volume of portfolios coming into the fourth quarter will increase. And we also see that some of what's been told and also the statistics shows that in Scandinavia, in particular, the second -- Stage 2 loans, which is the stage before going into NPLs are increasing quite a bit. So we anticipate that the volumes of NPLs actually will increase and therefore, also portfolios coming to market at a later stage will increase.

Final question from Vegard, how much were the nonrecurring items in Q2?

We reported as of NOK 25 million in the quarter. It's in the -- it's in the report, where NOK 10 million is related to personnel and around NOK 8 million is related to closing down the loan receivable business in Poland.

Thank you. And we continue with a few more questions. [indiscernible] is asking, can you touch on the market in general, volumes and prices competition? What do you see? Can you touch on the market in general, volumes and prices and competition, what do you see?

I believe Erik gave some comments on that earlier, but it's important to state that our target is to achieve investments between NOK 2.5 billion to NOK 3 billion and to achieve those investments at the best possible return, not to go necessarily above the investment target but to find the appropriate investments for B2, which is something we have achieved year-to-date, both in terms of markets and in terms of expected returns.

I can add a lot, but also on the volumes, coming to market, the volumes are still good. But as I said, some of the portfolios coming to market are drawn for the markets. And when it comes to competition, we see that it's varying from portfolio to portfolio. We see that sometimes there comes out of portfolio in a market there is heavily competition and [indiscernible], and it's very few. But generally, we see fewer participants in the market place now. And we also see that the participants now are pricing more, I would say, correctly to the conditions in the marketplace. So this is what we expected. And also, we expect some, the [ equilibrium ] between the sellers and the buyers to meet later or this autumn hopefully.

Then we move on to [indiscernible] Markets. We might think this has been addressed, but you can elaborate a bit more. How should we think about your investments for 2023 and 2024? What consideration would determine higher investments and guidance for 2023?

So we only issue guidance or target for the current year. And that is a stated NOK 2.5 billion to NOK 3 billion. And within the range at terms we're happy with, and that's a level, again, we are comfortable with in the current environment.

And as previously mentioned, the cash flow is very good. And at this level, we are seeing that we're able to maintain leverage ratio going forward at this level, which is important for B2Holding.

Then we move to [indiscernible] from ABG. Could you give examples on the legal strategies and use of analytics and use of self-service that has driven the higher collection?

We have initiated self-service platforms in several countries, which gives the debtor or the customer to access and have the opportunity to also initiate a plan for himself without going through human resources. And actually, have several options for themselves. So this gives them a better view and a better access and also to determine what kind of strategies they want to do themselves. This has been very good. And we also see more and more of our debtors that are used to using IT and platforms to -- and the number of people accessing this is increasing in the countries where this has been initiated. When it comes to analytics, we use programming and we use our analytic team setting up programs that are showing what strategies to do and where to emphasize our strategies. Also, that is also where we go back and reinitiate some legal procedures in some of the countries that has been very successful on older claims. So I think that is the main focus on both -- the strategies are both cost efficient but also volume efficient. So it's a combination between cost and volume actually driving the improvements there.

Very good. I think that concludes the Q&A session. Should there be questions that haven't been answered for some reason, you can, of course, contact us. My contact details, you can find in the presentation and don't hesitate to reach out if there should be anything. So with that, I think we conclude the second quarter presentation.

Thank you.