Baker Hughes Company (BKR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 19, 2023

NASDAQ US Energy Energy Equipment and Services conference_presentation 46 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#1

Welcome to Day 2 of the JPMorgan All stars Conference. My name is Arun Jayaram, I'm the E&P and Oilfield Services analyst. Delighted to have Baker Hughes present again this year. And very delighted to have Lorenzo Simonelli, who is the Chairman, CEO and President of Baker Hughes, which is an energy technology company. Lorenzo, thanks again for joining us this year.

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#2

Arun, thank you very much. It's good to be back. .

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#3

Yes. Really excited to have Baker, which I think is going to play to a very strong journalist audience that we have this year at the All Stars Conference. We have a lot of journalists here, which is good to see.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#4

Lorenzo, can you provide a brief background of Baker Hughes today and some of the recent history and how you got here over the last 3 to 5 years?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#5

Definitely. And I think what you said is very true. A number of people don't fully appreciate Baker Hughes, given that we really only came together a few years ago in 2017. And it was the merger between 2 significant companies, GE Oil & Gas as well as Baker Hughes. And so we brought together 2 portfolios that really make us unique. We are not a traditional oilfield services and equipment company. We truly are an energy technology company that spans from the extraction all the way to the movement of the molecule and also, the transfer of the molecule into energy. And that means we have not just an oil and gas exposure, but also an opportunity within the industrial, within the LNG sector, and we span across multiple end markets. And really, it's been a journey in educating and really forming the proposition of Baker Hughes as we've gone through, I would say, a volatile couple of years. Some of you know that we started off being consolidated within General Electric. Obviously, over the course of a couple of years, they sold down their stake and in 2019, they were below 50% and are completely outside of the stock. And we really started a journey of saying we've got a unique opportunity to really execute a strategy across the energy trilemma of sustainability, affordability and security. And we laid out 3 horizons from a standpoint of where we are today and also 2030, and we approach it with 3 key pillars of execution. The first, transform the core, operational execution, margin improvement, service delivery, doing what we do today better, and that's important for our customers. It's important for our investors. And you'll see the improvements in our margin rates 250 basis points over the course of the last few years with only 4% in revenue. And that is a continued focus on streamlining, simplifying, being more efficient, transform the core is the way in which we label it. The second, invest for growth. We already started to see areas where we had an opportunity within digital as well as industrial applications, as well as the adjacencies of nonmetallics, where we could invest and actually have immediate growth. Our chemicals business, and we've taken advantage of those. And that's what's going to give us our continued growth as we go through Horizon 1 and Horizon 2, the big focus and upswing in upstream spending, the LNG positive cycle that we're in. And then the third area, new horizons. When we think about the energy transition, when we think about the emergence of hydrogen, CCUS, direct air capture, clean power solutions, we've made investments in those areas. And we feel that we've got a great opportunity to benefit from the growing market. We estimate that there's a market opportunity for us to address between $60 billion to $70 billion as we go into Horisont free that's additional to what we have today. And we're already making good progress with execution on hydrogen projects. We recently took up our new energy orders outlook for 2023 from $400 million, which we've already achieved up to $600 million and $700 million. So as you look at Baker Hughes, it is an energy technology company with a clear focus on margin enhancement, return to shareholders and taking the opportunity of what the energy transition and [ energy mix ] evolving is all about, and we think our portfolio is unique in that.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#6

Lorenzo, how are you differentiated versus some of your other oil services peers? You're an energy technology company, but you do have a large oilfield services businesses within that.

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#7

We do, and we like our oilfield services. And credit to the team, Maria and her team, on executing and continuing to improve it. I'd say within oilfield services and equipment, we are different as well. And maybe just to start on that. We are more on the production and chemical side. We are more international than we are North America focused. We're not in a lot of the commoditized areas. We're more on the high-tech and harder to drill areas. And so we're less volatile, and we exited Pressure Pumping in North America. So we like our positioning from an oilfield services and equipment standpoint, and we've seen progressive improvements in the margin rates and also in the penetration with key customers. But what we have the traditional that maybe isn't as well understood is the other segment of Baker Hughes, which is the industrial energy technology, which is really made up of 5 key areas, and we're actually incorporating this starting October 1 so as to better describe and simplify the company. Gas Technology Equipment, that is the rotating equipment that goes into LNG. It goes into onshore, offshore compression, power generation. It goes into pipelines. It goes into the downstream refineries, petrochemicals, as well as Gas Tech Services. Many of these pieces of equipment, critical rotating equipment have associated transactional services, upgrades or contractual service agreements. And that gives us an opportunity to have anywhere between 5- to 20-year contractual service agreements. Our backlog across the gas technology services is $14 billion. Overall, within our IET business, we have $29 billion of backlog. The other areas are Climate Technology Solutions, which is all the new areas associated with hydrogen, CCUS, direct air capture, as you look at clean integrated power solutions. That is still relatively small. But again, it's where we see the growth of the opportunity with the energy transition. Industrial Solutions with the digital area and the way in which we drive productivity for our customers. And Industrial Products, when we think of valves, gears that are associated with helping our customers improve their efficiencies. And again, that's on the industrial customer base as well.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#8

Lorenzo, before doing a deeper dive into Baker Hughes, I want to talk about macro. Can you talk about the macro picture for energy as the world looks to balance the energy trilemma: sustainability, security and affordability.

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#9

Sure. And we've been talking about this for some time. And I look back to 2019, obviously, we didn't know some of the events that were going to take place and some of those have accelerated the need to ensure security of energy. But we saw that they have been under investment in the industry. We saw that there was a focus on sustainability, and that's why we launched very much as an energy technology company. We think that the world is going to need more energy. And there is an ongoing demand that's out there from the developing nations that is not going to be reducing as well as there is a need for sustainability. And that sustainability means it's not the fuel source, it is the aspect of reducing emissions. And if we are going to reach the 2050 climate goals of the Paris Accord, we're going to need to infuse a lot of these new technologies with the use of fossil fuels as well. And so as we think of the outlook, you've got actually tailwind across both of our 2 segments. On the Oilfield Services & Equipment, the underinvestment that took place as well as the quick barrels and the acreage having already been used means there's going to be an incremental investment in upstream spending over the course of the next few years. We're already seeing that. And in particular, it's on the international side, where you have commitments being made by national oil companies on the incremental production they're going to have, taking case Aramco in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a clear commitment to going to 13 million barrels. ADNOC in the UAE going to 5 million barrels. Those are areas that they're going to continue to invest, and we see international markets growing mid-teens this year and double-digit next year. As we go forward, also Latin America continuing to grow. So we have tailwind on the Oilfield Services & Equipment over the course of the next few years. On the Industrial Energy Technology, you can see the wave of LNG. Again, we're seeing 65 MTPA this year, 65 MTPA next year, and in '25, '26, 30 to 60 MTPA. So LNG and natural gas has now been understood as being not just a transition fuel, but a destination fuel. I think it's fair to say we're one of the leaders in the liquefaction business and providing that critical equipment. And so we see a good cycle there as well as the continued investment within the energy transition and new technologies that are required to meet goals that companies have already stated. And these goals are important because I don't think companies are going to be able to walk away from them. I know we've made pledge and we're continuing to invest in reducing our CO2 emissions. I think other companies will do the same. So we see good tailwind across both areas of the company as we go through this cycle.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#10

Great. Another question on the macro. As Europe looks to diversify its gas supply from Moscow, what do you think some of the longer-term implications are for natural gas and LNG?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#11

So I think there will be a reshuffling of the global mix of where natural gas comes from and also where LNG comes from. The important thing is that it's going to continue to increase from a demand perspective, and it's going to require the investments from a supply perspective. As you look at Europe, clearly, right now, they are one of the driving forces that's helping the U.S. LNG continuing to FID new projects. And you look at the pipeline of U.S. LNG projects, very robust over the course of the next few years, as well as greenfield and brownfield expansions. The U.S. is blessed to have a lot of natural gas, and they're going to be able to provide that to Europe and other nations. Likewise, though, as you look at internationally, you're continuing to see areas of the world like Qatar, also new projects in Mozambique, in other areas, continuing to go forward as well. And there will just be a repositioning of where gas in Southern places goes and where LNG goes. But our outlook for 2030 is that we're going to have an installed base of greater than 800 MTPA. And as we look at where we are today with current capacity as well as some of the installed base that's coming on, we've got about 460 MTPA installed. There's about 150 under construction. So there is a lot still that's going to happen over the course of the next few years.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#12

What other factors do you consider when looking at the long-term role of gas and LNG in terms of the energy mix?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#13

We've seen the benefit of natural gas within the United States and within Europe as being the enabler to actually reduce emissions. That is going to be a theme that is carried into developing world as well. And so there will be a continued drive of reducing coal and going towards natural gas and LNG, especially while new technologies and the energy mix continues to evolve. One of the hard truths is if that doesn't happen, reality is we'll consume more coal. And I think we all know that coal, from a fossil fuel and emission standpoint, is the one with the highest emissions. So that shift to gas has already been proven in Europe and in the U.S., and we think it's going to be a continued steam as we look to developing nations.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#14

Great. I want to shift gears and talk about IET.

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#15

Yes.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#16

Within IET, I believe last year, you promoted or you had Ganesh Ramaswamy appointed to lead the IET business. And then this year, you announced a realigning of the product lines within the segment to align with 5 key growth sectors. Why was Ganesh the right person to lead IET and thoughts about that segment going forward?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#17

Yes. It's a move that we made as we continue to evolve and take the company forward. And we've had a great backdrop of good performance within a TPS business and a DS business, but we started to see the theme of integration and also our customers looking at joint capabilities. And so the first step we took, which was really going to 2 business segments across Baker Hughes: Oilfield Services & Equipment that Maria clearly runs, and then Industrial Energy Technology that Ganesh runs. And we brought in Ganesh for the skills that he had and also the opportunity to improve us as we go forward. First of all, we have a tremendous backlog that we've got to execute. He has a very good process discipline, has a very good background in Kaizen, in lean and being able to understand the manufacturing. And we need to make sure that as we go through this backlog, we're executing on time and satisfying our customers. He's proven that before within his prior roles at Danaher, also at Johnson Controls. Also, though, as you look at the industrial solutions in the industrial products, he comes from a background of having developed new service businesses, having worked in industrial companies of industrial products. And so that focus in being able to grow those areas and also the climate technology solutions. So he was brought in specifically with the aspect of helping us chart the future, improving the margin rates and having the skill set required to think beyond just the rotating equipment that we have, but also the new areas of growth.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#18

Can you talk about the catalyst for this realignment within IT? And what will this impact and some of the recent results in the business?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#19

Yes. Very pleased with the recent results. You can look at the performance of the backlog growing, the margin rates solidifying with the cost out as well as the efficiencies. Clearly, we've got a mix element, but I look at that as a good thing in the sense we're increasing our installed base by 30%. And that's going to provide us the opportunity for incremental service calories as we go forward. Razor/Razorblade is an aspect of this business that we think is very beneficial. But the new reporting structure was really from a clarity of direction and also being able to give that visibility to our employees, our different stakeholders, investors on how can you see our strategy visible in our numbers. So you have previously a gas technology and industrial segments and then 2 initiatives called Climate Technology Solutions and Digital. We've now clarified into just 5 areas, which you'll be able to see orders and revenues on Gas technology equipment, Gas Technology Services, Climate Technology Solutions. Why is Climate Technology Solutions important? It now allows you to translate what we say in relation to the new energy space and predominantly the equipment that we can sell into the new energy areas, CCUS, hydrogen, clean integrated power solutions, direct air capture, you'll see that. And when we say we should have $6 billion to $7 billion of new orders by 2030, you'll be able to triangulate that now relative to the component that's largest associated with that, which is Climate Technology Solutions. Likewise, on the Industrial Solutions, really putting all of our digital capability, the opportunity to show how condition monitoring, asset performance management, how our Cordant solution is growing. And then on the industrial products, we think it's underappreciated the presence we have in industrial sectors as we look at valves, as we look at gears. And so showing that penetration that we have in other sectors beyond just oil and gas.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#20

One of the underappreciated aspects of your business with IET is Turbomachinery. Can you kind of highlight your turbomachinery capabilities?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#21

Definitely. And it's really a deep dive into the Gas Technology Equipment. So many people like to focus on LNG. I think LNG is great. It is only 30% of that gas technology business on average. We have the compression as well as gas turbines that actually are used in other segments. One that I think is underappreciated is onshore/offshore production. And when you say onshore/offshore production, it's both the compression element as well as the power generation that's required. Look at FPSOs. We see a good market outlook for FPSOs. And as we go forward, 7 to 9 FPSOs on an annual basis. Why? You look at the big growth in Brazil and Petrobras. You look at some of West Africa and the offshore expansions that are taking place there. FPSOs is a market that we do well in. And again, it's providing the compression and the power source relative to these FPSOs. Likewise, pipelines. People say new pipelines are going to be necessary. Well, you need compression stations on pipelines. And again, there, we've got a variety of compressors, but gas turbines as well. We have a hydrogen 100% ready gas turbine today, 16 megawatts. So these other areas of our rotating equipment business and as you'd say, Turbomachinery, I think are underappreciated in the various segments that they go into as well as petrochemicals and on the refinery. I'll give you an anecdote, which may be helpful. So people talk a lot about hydrogen as being a new theme. We have 2,000 compressors already installed in hydrogen applications. Yes, it is gray hydrogen. The compressor doesn't really get to think about the color. We're able to take it to other areas. And that's the benefit that we have, taking our critical equipment within Turbomachinery into these new growth areas as we see them developing within CCUS and also within hydrogen.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#22

Lorenzo, how have you been able to position Baker as a leader within LNG and onshore/offshore production?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#23

First of all, you've got to have good engineering, good technology and then you've got to be consistent in your capability to execute for the customer. I think we've proven time and time out that like everybody, we have our challenges, but that we overcome them and our equipment is equipment that works and provides capability to our customers, in many cases, provides them the opportunity to produce above nameplate. We're there day in, day out, providing the service and the continuous focus on the engineering talent and the upgrades that we're able to put into our installed base. So look, LNG didn't happen overnight. Onshore/offshore production didn't happen overnight. It's been a successive growth over the course of 20 years and being able to prove out and validate. And these are huge cost of failures for our customers. If you miss an LNG cargo, it is expensive. If you have an FPSO that goes down, it is expensive. We've proven our reliability, our uptime. And that means that once you get specified, there's the opportunity to continue growing with that customer. And we have, I would say, very intimate relationships with our customers in these areas.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#24

Do you see a similar situation playing out for Baker in hydrogen, carbon capture and cleaning power where you have capabilities today?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#25

I do in different ways. As you look at hydrogen, hydrogen is complicated. When you look at the application of hydrogen production and also the usage, it is a molecule that is challenging. We've proven the ability to work with challenging molecules. As you look at our success already in hydrogen, we are on a great partnership with our products. And in fact, we're executing together NEOM in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We're executing [ Abra ] hydrogen projects in the United States. And we see our opportunity there to really solidify a position where we have critical equipment in the hydrogen production and hydrogen usage areas like we do in LNG. CCUS is going to be more of a competitive marketplace because you're going to have a variety of different solutions. We have picked our spots, chilled ammonia process, compact carbon capture. There's always going to be a need for compression, but there will be a variety of players that take place within the carbon capture itself. So we'll play, but it won't be -- it will be more like an area which is more like downstream where you've got other players as well. Clean integrated power solutions, it's akin to hydrogen and to LNG, where the ability to produce a turbo expander such as what we're doing with NET Power is critical equipment. And so there, there's an opportunity to again,obtain the same presence as we have in other areas and grow. And we're very excited about the opportunity with NET Power, which essentially through the Oxy combustion process provides 300 megawatts of clean power and has already been requested by Oxy for the first few sites.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#26

Great. Let's talk about Gas Tech Equipment & Services. This is the largest part of your portfolio within IET with most of your orders coming from LNG and OOP. Can you provide a summary of the type of equipment you provide within these arenas?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#27

Yes, the equipment comes down to, as I mentioned before, a different varying sizes of gas turbines. So you can have a aero derivative as well as heavy-duty gas turbine as well as a light industrial gas turbine. So we produce the whole range. And within LNG, we have the stick build, the modular, small scale. And we are pioneers in the modular, being able to package all of the kit that's required from a liquefaction perspective and its auxiliaries and put it into 1 box, but then you're able to put in the piping, the gas and liquefy it. So that is a capability that we have and I think is unique. We've used it with Venture Global and others. Then compression. Again, you name it, depending on what you want to compress, we've got the various compressors from centrifugal, reciprocating, et cetera, that go into these applications. And it comes a lot back to your question before, how do people appreciate what the Turbomachinery element is and how critical rotating equipment is as you look at new sectors that are growing and new technologies. The services side, all of these consume parts. As they get used, they consume parts. And so as the OEM, we obviously provide the services that are necessary for the ongoing uptime reliability. And those are long-term relationships as well as transactional. And then we've got an opportunity within our installed base, which is vast, to continue to provide upgrades. How do you lower emissions? How do you increase efficiency? One to 2 points of efficiency increase on this critical equipment can mean significant benefit to our customers. So that's really what we do within our Gas Tech Equipment and Gas Tech Services business.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#28

Okay. Can you get through that on the LNG side, the FID order outlook, 65 million tons this year the next few years?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#29

Yes. So we're going through an up cycle in LNG. We saw this a while back, and we said that we would have between 100 and 150 MTPA over the course of 2 years. We said that 2 years ago. We've seen a good advancement of FIDs. As we look forward, again, there's 65 MTPA this year. We took up our orders outlook for our IET business. And we were at 10.5 to 11.5. We took it up to 11.5 to 12.5. And that still excludes a potential major LNG project that could FID before the end of this year, beginning of next year. But LNG is again going through tailwind next year, another 65 MTPA. And we come up with these numbers, not just by because we like them, because of the projects that we track. I've been tracking LNG for a significant amount of time. Every single project that's on the list, we're intimately involved in. When you look at a port offer that just took FID this year, it's not that port offer wasn't around multiple years ago. You look at a NextDecade, we've been involved with NextDecade for multiple years. Look at Qatar, we've been with Qatar multiple years. So this 65 MTPA is about brownfield expansions as well as greenfield opportunities. And then in '25, '26, again, we still see 30 to 60 MTPA per year of new FIDs as well as brownfields.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#30

Great. Just other thoughts on just the upbeat order outlook within LNG. Is this customer driven, a lot of demand? What's driving this strong outlook?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#31

It's customer-driven, and it's also, I think, the new ways in which we can provide LNG and the speed at which we can provide it. So previously, a lot of things would have been stick built. And with stick build, the cycle time can be anywhere from 4 to 5 years after FID and just the complexity of some of these projects. With the new modular approach, you're now able to go from FID to fast cargo within 29 months, we've seen, and we think that can be even shorter. So when you think of the need for energy, natural gas to LNG starts to become very positive from a cycle time perspective. Likewise, you've seen the increase in floating LNG. There's a lot of gas that is stranded in Southern places offshore. And we're seeing an increased use of modular on floating LNGs to be able to tap in the stranded gas. So as we go forward, again, the LNG outlook is positive as a way in which we really take not just as a transition but a destination. And I think what's most noticeable is also Europe changing its view on natural gas. And today, Europe is looking at natural gas as being a greener fuel in helping to reduce the emissions.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#32

In OOP, how would you characterize the current offshore environment relative to prior cycles?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#33

More consistent. And the reason why I say that is there's always been up cycles, down cycles. When you look at the longevity of the presale findings, when you look at some of these offshore developments, look at Guyana for ExxonMobil and Hess. It is a programmatic development of a field that we know is vast and they have FPSOs that they have basically on a production line. Petrobras, similar, and also the partners that they have as IOCs. It's now become production line of every year, I'll bring on new capability for the production that's got to be increased. I'll add FPSOs. And you've got new opportunities. When you look at Namibia, that is going to be a market opportunity that is going to emerge. You look at again below Guyana, in some of the new areas that are being discovered, new opportunities. So we think FPSOs have got more consistency than they did before because of the visibility we have to the fields where they're going to be utilized and also the investments that are being committed by the NOCs and the IOCs.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#34

Can you talk about Baker's portfolio in terms of servicing offshore and how could the company benefit from this resurgence in offshore activity?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#35

Well, so we play on offshore in really multiple ways. But I'd say outside of the FPSOs, which I just discussed, we also have the Oilfield Equipment business, which is part of Oilfield Services & Equipment. We provide manifold. We provide trees. We provide flexibles. And this is a business that, for us, has underperformed in the past, especially on the tree side. We announced the restructuring of that business last year. It was losing money. It is now making money. And we see the opportunity to continuously improve the margin outlook for the Oilfield Equipment business. And when you look at it, we have reduced capacity on the tree side. We've rationalized into some major basins and some major customer relationships. And so from being negative margin rate, we've gone into low single digit. We fully anticipate that we'll go into high single digit. And overall, with the flexibles, that is a great presence that we have with Petrobras and a backlog of being sold out as well as the wellhead business, we think we can be in the high single to low double digit for Oilfield Equipment. And it's part of the journey that the Oilfield Services equipment business is on to achieve 20% margin rates by 2025.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#36

Lorenzo, at Baker, you have a unique Razor and Razorblade kind of business when we think about Gas Tech. And can you talk about what services you provide within Gas Tech services?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#37

Yes. It goes back to -- again, if you think about once you got your installed equipment there. If it's critical equipment, customers are very committed to the uptime and the efficiency and the reliability. The majority of our LNG trains have a contractual service agreement on them, which goes from anywhere from 5 to 20 years. That is a long-term relationship. Not all critical equipment has a contractual service agreement. You do have in other applications, just the transactional business, which is maintenance. It's people request for parts. Considering we're the OEM, people do tend to buy from the OEM the parts on these machines. And then the third opportunity is continuously to look to improve the efficiency. This equipment will be there for 20 years. [indiscernible], it will be there for 30 years. And we've got an opportunity with the customer to continue to improve and increase the efficiency through upgrades, and that's an important aspect of it. So those 3 elements really make up our service proposition. And I'd say what is more and more becoming the case is also the application of digital monitoring the application of advisory services, knowledge-based services and really improving the efficiency of our field service technicians as they're out there in the field performing the outages and the overall holes for this critical equipment.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#38

Great. In 2023, Lorenzo, you and the team are guiding to around $10 billion of IET revenue and 15% EBITDA margins. You've established a 2025 to '26 target of an expansion in margins to 20% plus. Can you talk about the key drivers of moving from 15% to 20% plus?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#39

Yes. And we've got very good line of sight to the road map towards that. Firstly, it starts with the cost-out that we announced and also the opportunity to streamline as we went from 2 product companies into 1 segment of IET. And we, in 2023 on an annualized basis, we'll get $50 million. Also, it's the pricing discipline and the continued execution of the margins that are in backlog, which again, we've been able to improve as we look at the new areas of industrial solutions and industrial products. These are businesses that had a very difficult time during the pandemic and suffered from supply chain challenges, and their gross margins remained in place. However, their EBIT rate came down considerably. There is good line of sight to those going back to the historical margin rates of 18% to 19% that we had historically. So those are some of the key levers. And then the climate technology solutions, the majority of what we're selling today is equipment that we already have. And so the margin rates being solid on those coming through. So line of sight very much there. The reason for the '25, '26 is mix is always something that you don't know between the equipment and services side. But with a 30% increase in the installed base, especially on LNG, we think that, that is going to be very advantageous as we go into the services side.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#40

Next topic is New Energy. It's been a really good year for you in terms of backlog. You've booked $440 million of inbound CCUS, hydrogen, ammonia plant equipment orders have been driving that backlog build. Can you provide some updated thoughts on potential backlog for the full year?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#41

So we took up our guidance from the $400 million to $600 million to $700 million. And I look at it as a positive story over the course of the last few years. We doubled our new energy orders in 2022. And now in 2023, from that $200 million, we're already at $400 million, and we're going to $600 million to $700 million. This space is moving fast. I think it's been aided by the Inflation Reduction Act. It's been aided by several policy shifts also within Europe, and the pipeline of opportunities is increasing. If anything, what I used to see as being out there in 2030 has the potential to be pulled in just based on some of the policies that have been put in place. And we haven't given any views on 2024 yet and 2025. But again, we would anticipate continuing to grow that New Energy's construct from an orders perspective.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#42

And can you talk about your longer-term targets, call it, in 2030, where you see this business potentially getting to in terms of inbound orders?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#43

So we've laid out a conservative view of, if you look at the addressable market of $60 billion to $70 billion, that we have an opportunity for $6 billion to $7 billion. Now that is something that we feel is very doable. And we're obviously, I'm pushing the team for much more, but that is something that is very much line of sight and realistic if you look at the way New Energy continues to gain momentum. That being said, I think it's important to remember what makes Baker Hughes unique is that we actually play both sides. And let's say New Energy doesn't necessarily go as fast as we anticipate, we've got the other areas that will continue to grow them at a faster rate. And so there's a balancing act there, which makes our portfolio unique.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#44

A couple of key things. I know we're running out of time. I wanted to ask you about some of the key implications from the IRA in the U.S. .

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#45

IRA is a game changer. And they definitely approached it from giving a carrot, not a stick. If you look at the areas where they are providing incentives. Number one, on the 45Q taking the CO2 up to $85. Direct air capture, providing $185. You look at green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, again, providing incentives. I can tell you after the IRA came out, there were substantial increases in inbounds around projects and a pipeline of projects, and you're starting to see those come through. We think that ammonia and hydrogen will grow quickly. CCUS is definitely a fast mover. And what's also encouraging is that within the Inflation Reduction Act, there's also a lot more discussion around permitting. There's a lot more discussion around what other elements need to change to enable the Inflation Reduction Act to be positive. And I've spent many hours in roundtables with both the Department of Energy, as well as industry stakeholders on making sure that we actually see the positive traction from the Inflation Reduction Act.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#46

Great. Lorenzo, final question. More recently, the company is messaging the benefits of staying 1 company. Can you provide the investors just an update on the latest thoughts on the potential separation of the 2 businesses?

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#47

We think staying together is the best return for our investors and stakeholders. And as is appropriate, we always have to look at different options. And that's what we did. We studied it. And when we look at who the primary first movers are going to be on some of the new areas of growth and new technologies, it's going to be the NOCs and the IOCs. When you look at the integration of technologies, it's going to be around subsurface and rotating equipment. When you look at the opportunity to play with a unified portfolio of solutions, that's what Baker Hughes can provide. So I think the study gave us a good opportunity to really understand the value of our differentiated portfolio, and now it's really communicating it and proving it in the quarter-by-quarter results.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#48

Great. Lorenzo, we're out of time. Thank you so much for the rich discussion. I appreciate your participation in the conference in support of JPMorgan.

Lorenzo Simonelli

executive
#49

Thank you very much, Arun.

Arun Jayaram

analyst
#50

Bye.

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