Balaji Telefilms Limited (BALAJITELE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 13, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Balaji Telefilms Q3 FY '20 Results Conference Call hosted by Axis Capital Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Ankur Periwal
analystYes. Good evening, friends, and welcome to Balaji Telefilms Q3 FY '20 Earnings Call. As usual, the call will be initiated with a brief management discussion on the quarterly and the 9 monthly performance, followed by an interactive Q&A session. From the management team, we have with us Mr. Nachiket Pantvaidya, CEO ALTBalaji; Mr. Sanjay Dwivedi, Group CFO. Over to you, Nachi, for your initial comments.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. Very good afternoon. Thank you for joining us on our quarter 3 FY 2020 earnings call. I hope you all had a chance to review our earnings release published yesterday evening. The quarter and the first 9 months of this year has been very good for us, as our investments in creating content across TV, movies and digital have now started to pay off. I'm pleased to report that quarter 3 FY '20 has been a record year of profitability for us and is the highest quarterly profit in over 12 years. I will now quickly walk through major updates across our business, starting with the update on the TV production business, where we continue to drive the ratings for the broadcasters we work with. For the quarter, we had a 15% market share in prime time ratings, which is still more than our production houses rank 2 and rank 3 combined. This allowed us to finish the calendar year as the #1 creator of content on Indian television. We had 9 shows on air during the quarter and produced over 219 hours of content. Our shows are doing very well, and we launched 2 new shows in the quarter. The iconic Naagin came back for Season 4, a testament to our understanding of mass Indian content. We also launched Yeh Hai Chahatein, a spin-off show based on the hugely popular Yeh Hai Mohabbatein. Yeh Hai Mohabbatein came to an end after entertaining Indian audiences for over 6 years. Our TV business remains on a solid footing, and we'll continue to focus on driving hours of production and realizations. This quarter, we also successfully scaled up our digital content production arm and created a number of hit shows for our ALTBalaji platform. We have the required teams and infrastructure in place to continue to produce and create hit content for television and digital. Overall, the TV business remains on a solid foundation and will contribute significantly to the earnings for the year. Coming to our movie business. We had an exceptionally good performance, primarily driven by the super hit movie Dream Girl, which was accounted for in the quarter. Balaji Motion Pictures continues to focus on pre-sales and co-production of its future slate. And our capital commitments to the movie business remains limited. We have 4 movies in the pipeline, and our intention is to focus on pre-sales and co-production where feasible. For example, Ek Villain 2 is being co-produced with T-Series, as our production partner. Other movies in the pipeline include Dolly Kitty Aur Woh Chamakte Sitare, starring Konkona Sen Sharma and Bhumi Pednekar, which had a very successful premiere at the Busan Film Festival last year; Pagglait, starring Sanya Malhotra, and KTina, starring Disha Patani, both of which are original stories that should connect well with Indian audience. Finally, on ALTBalaji, we continue to establish ourselves as a preferred choice for urban mass Hindi content. Our collaboration with Zee5 has gone live since September, and both partners are pleased with the success so far. We continue to create shows that work well with digital audiences in India and Indians abroad. Our current active subscriber base stands close to 1.6 million, and we continue to see good traction on the direct subscription front. We are ranked consistently in the top 5 grossing apps. Currently, we are ranked #4 across iOS and Android despite one of the lowest subscription prices in the country and investing about 1/10 of what our competitors invest in marketing. Our deal with Zee5 will help us get committed revenues towards content creation, while allowing us to grow our direct subscriber base. The partnership allows us to conserve our cash burn by a way of co-production and move towards becoming profitable and a valuable OTT. And we have now significantly reduced our EBITDA burn for the quarter, from an average run rate of INR 30 crores a quarter -- the loss of INR 30 crores a quarter, we are now down to under INR 15 crores and expect this to narrow down quickly. I will now hand this over to Mr. Sanjay Dwivedi, our group CFO, to give you a quick update on the financials.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveThank you. I hope you all have seen the results presentation available on the website. Financially, we had one of our best quarters in recent time. The key figures are as follows. Revenues for the quarter were at INR 198.4 crores and up 78% over the same period in FY '19. This was driven by 2 main factors: an increase in digital content production for ALTBalaji and Zee5; and the full impact of the movie Dream Girl in the quarter. Significant expansion in EBITDA was reflective of strong operational cost control, especially around the new shows launched in quarter. EBITDA for 9 months was at INR 95.9 crores versus INR 16.1 crores, a growth of nearly 5x. Finally, stand-alone Q3 PAT at INR 29.4 crores and 9 months PAT at INR 47.4 crores, growth of 145% and 165%, respectively, all reflective of a strong operational performance across our TV and movie business. Coming to ALTBalaji. As mentioned previously, we continue to drive strong revenue growth, which was at INR 23.1 crores for the quarter versus INR 41.8 crores for the full year FY '19. We continue to keep a tight control on cost. EBITDA loss in Q3 on ALTBalaji has fallen sharply and was at INR 16 crores versus INR 68 crores in the first half of the year. This strong performance is also reflected in our consolidated numbers. The company continues to remain cash-free with mutual fund investment as at December 31, 2019, was at INR 175 crores and a further cash and cash equivalents of INR 14.5 crores. The Board has also declared an interim dividend of 20% or INR 0.40 per share. Overall, we believe our investment into creating the content and platform are now reaping the rewards, and we believe we can continue this momentum into the coming quarters. I thank you all for joining us today. And now would request the moderator to open the Q&A session.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We have the first question from the line of Aasim Bharde from IDFC Securities.
Rohit Dokania
analystThis is Rohit Dokania here from IDFC. Congratulations on a good quarter. Sir, I have 2, 3 questions. One is, you do talk about the pivot to paywall. So just wanted some more details on that, especially you are saying, you're kind of no more free to customers and are along with a single partner only. So what does this exactly mean?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveIt means 2 things that before September 1, 2019, we were freely available, as in available free on telcos to our customers at an ARPU, which was bordering between INR 15 and INR 20, because there was -- usage was monthly based. So the ARPU of those telco customers are very low, but we had a large base of telco customers that came, not directly to us but came on the telco base. Now that has stopped and everything is available only when the consumer pays for it, whether it is on Zee5 or on ALT. In addition, what has happened is that we produced 42 shows before September 2019, which are now available exclusively only on ALT. They're not available on Zee5. So Zee5 right now has about 12, 13 shows that we produced in the last few months. And the rest of the shows are available only exclusively on ALT. This has enabled us to, one, raise our ARPU; secondly, have direct subscriptions going up. As a result, year-on-year, we are doubling our subscription revenue overall also and also through direct subscribers. So that is really the benefit of going behind the paywall. We feel that as our library increases, we need to ensure that people form the habit of paying for our content and our content is not offered free. We had to do the telco deals and give it of free in the first, probably 30 months of our existence because our library was small, but now we have taken a call, now that the library is growing, that we are going to go only behind paywall.
Rohit Dokania
analystSo sir, understood, sir. Does that mean that sort of you're not present on any of these sort of telco aggregator apps at all?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveCorrect.
Rohit Dokania
analystAnd did it have any impact in terms of knee jerk sort of reaction to our revenues? Or there was no such impact because these sort of...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveNo. In fact, as a matter of fact, in this quarter, the revenues have gone up, as you would have seen. So just to give you an overall picture, our numbers are looking more and more cheerful in terms of the top line and direct, simply because we have got 42 shows exclusively. And we were also able to kind of manage our P&L and revenues because of our deal with Zee, where there is content sharing and reimbursement for content sharing.
Rohit Dokania
analystSir, actually, that was the second question. So you did allude to some of it in your opening remarks. If you can just provide some more details, so how is the sort of content cost sharing, how does that happen? And in terms of -- is there any sort of ARPU sharing as well that goes on because I believe your content is also available on Zee5 as well? So obviously, it would be difficult to give the details, but at least some qualitative comment would be helpful.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveIt's a 60-40 content share. 60% of our content share is picked up by -- of our content cost is picked up by Zee. And I think on an annual basis, that will amount to at least about INR 80 crore to INR 90 crore. The rest of the money that we spend on the app has to be made by us directly through our exclusive live and the shows that we exploit. And as a result of that, we hope to breakeven between 36 to 48 months of our launch. That is any time after the AMJ quarter, we'll start breaking even. Right now, this quarter's loss stands at about INR 16 crores. We will make that single digits in Jan, Feb, March. And April, May, June onwards, we'll practically breakeven the ALT business.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Dharmik Prajapati from Prospero Tree.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystFirst of all, congratulation on such a great result, as we are seeing growth after such a long period of time. I have 2 questions -- 3 questions on -- first is on the comments business, like comments and programming business has grown by INR 50 crores, which I can see from quarter-to-quarter. But the EBITDA level, we can see only INR 2 crore of growth quarter-on-quarter. So how is that? Can you throw some light around that?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYou're talking of the television business because I think the numbers are not what you are saying. The growth has to be -- will be more. So Sanjay, would you like to elaborate here?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveYes, tell me. What is that you're talking about?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveWhich number?
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. So the television network [indiscernible] revenue of INR 84 crores [indiscernible] which is grown by INR 49 crores. The profit -- EBITDA has just grown by INR 26 crore to INR 28 crore, which is INR 2 crores lag.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executivePBT, PBT.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveSo last year, we had one-off revenue -- profit from private equity sale, which was around INR 5.5 crores. So that had contributed as well as in the last year's numbers. So you have to remove that number when you want to compare PBT to PBT.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveSo actually, if you look at profit before tax, it's INR 13.87 crores, if you take that number out...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveAs compared to INR 21 crores this year.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveAs compared to INR 21 crores, yes. Roughly INR 21 crores now.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay, okay, okay. And going back to movie business, so which I can see that pipeline is of 4 movies. Dolly Kitty was supposed to release in Q4.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveCorrect.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystWhich has now shifted to Q1 like in FY '21 [indiscernible]
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveCorrect.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystSo what are the actual pipeline for Q1 FY '21 like Q1 or for FY '21, if you can just throw some light around...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveThe thing that we mentioned -- sorry are you -- what is your question? Are you continuing -- I'm not able to understand. Just...
Dharmik Prajapati
analystI just wanted to understand what is the pipeline -- assured pipeline for FY '21? Because what I assume is that there was a film that you are going to launch in this current year, financial year. Now with only 3 has been released and now so fourth movie has been shifted to next year. So what is the pipeline for FY '21?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveOkay. So the pipeline -- and you can count to the 4. Number one is Dolly Kitty. Second is KTina, starring Disha Patani, then it is Pagglait, starring Sanya Malhotra; and we have Ek Villain 2, which we're coproducing with T-Series. The release date for Ek Villain 2 is not yet firm, but it could well be in March of 2021. It might just be the fourth release.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystWhat is the completion stage like of this -- any 4 movies like is the 50% of the movie completed or...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveI'm telling you. Dolly Kitty is completed fully.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveYou would have heard it that we have already premiered it at Busan Film Festival.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveBusan Film Festival. Pagglait is about 30% complete. KTina is 50% complete.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay. And Ek Villain is yet to start?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. Ek Villain is yet to start.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay. Okay. Fine. And sir, [indiscernible] I can see the results...
Operator
operatorI'm sorry to interrupt. Mr. Prajapati, your audio is sounding a little muffled.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes, yes. We can't hear you, sorry.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. Sorry. There might be some network issue. Can you hear me now?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes, yes, better.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. So the one thing is on ALT business like the cost is very much controlled, like where I can see the revenue growth is only from like INR 3 crores or INR 2 crores -- I am sorry. Revenue growth is by INR 3 crores quarter-on-quarter, but our cost is very much controlled because our losses has been reduced by almost INR 16 crores compared to last quarter. So what I understand is that Zee contributing at the top line, not in the content cost, if I understand better. So...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveNo. I don't think you are taking the numbers right.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveWe'll just explain. Sanjay, if you can just clarify?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveSo last year -- you are talking about ALT, correct?
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. ALT had digital business, so last quarter...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveYes, yes, yes. So last year, for quarter 3, the number was INR 8 crores top line.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystNo, no, sir. I'm not talking Y-o-Y. I was talking quarter-on-quarter.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveI'm talking quarter-on-quarter only.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystINR 20 crores to INR 23 crores.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveSo you are talking about sequential quarter or quarter-on-quarter?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveQ2 to Q3.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystQ2, Q3.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveOkay. Yes. So there is a surge of INR 3 crores on top line.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. And that the cost are very much reduced by INR 16 crores, losses, there are, like, INR 29 crores to INR 12 crores. So I don't understand. Can you throw some light on that?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveSo 50% of the cost has been picked up by Zee.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveBecause if you would have recollect during the last conversation when we had with you guys, we have clearly told you September 1, we went live with Zee5, correct? The full impact was not seen in quarter 2.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveCorrect.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWhereas this quarter has full impact for the shows, which we have co-shared with Zee, where they have picked up cost by 50%.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay, co-shared with Zee. And what I understand like is, is Zee contributing anything to our top line results or is only the content cost sharing?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executive50% is -- cost is picked -- cost gets reduced, and 10% is what I accrue as a revenue.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay. So it's 60%, 50% and 10% ratio. And one thing on the movie side -- that's all.
Operator
operatorWe have the next question from the line of [ Karan Gala ] from [ Robocap ].
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. I just wanted to ask one thing. The base level point that you mentioned for April to June, was it at cash flow level or PAT level?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWe had cash flow level. For the quarter, we are already breaking even.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo in ALT, you are already positive and cash flow positive by April and -- to June?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveApril, May, June, we'll be targeting P&L breakeven.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveP&L positive.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveCash flow, we are already breaking even now itself.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveThe reason is we have some amort that we are carrying from the past...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWhich is residing into P&L for...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveP&L. That's the reason cash flow we're already there.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveThe 40-odd shows, which is not shared with anybody else, that amortization continues to hit the P&L now.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd one more question was can you -- like there's some guidance for FY '21.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveLouder, please.
Unknown Analyst
analystHello?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. That's better.
Unknown Analyst
analystCan you give some guidance for FY '21 and '22 for revenue and -- for ALT basically, I want to know about ALT.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveThen there are 2 or 3 things. One is, like we have always mentioned and I mentioned on this call, between March 31, 2020 and April 1, 2021, we will breakeven the ALT business. So that is the first level of guidance. Second is, we are very, very sure that our direct subscription revenues are doubling every year. So year 1 of our operations, direct subscription revenue was about INR 3.5 crores, INR 4 crores. Second year, it was INR 15 crores. This year, we will be well above INR 31 crores, INR 32 crores when we close this year. So the year after that, we are also expecting a doubling in our direct subscription revenues. We are also going to continue, of course, with our Zee partnership which is beneficial to both. It's a 2-year contract. So that will also span most of the next financial year, leaking into the year after. What we want to do is 3 or 4 things. We want to be the only OTT platform in the country that has broken even, that, too, with a considerable base of originally produced shows. We are now the #1 storehouse of originally produced Hindi content in the country, and we will also breakeven. We will also demonstrate that we are able to market our shows exclusively better than everybody else because our efficiencies are better. We are achieving this at a much lower marketing spend than the competition. That is reflected in the fact that we are consistently in the top 4 gross billing OTT apps on the Android and the iOS web store. Pick any month in the last 12 months, we'll always be in the top 4. Though our rate or our rate to the consumer is probably one of the lowest, it's INR 100 for 3 months and INR 300 for a year. What we are, therefore, setting to establish is that there is a mass market, which we are successfully able to target and operate a profitable OTT business with a top line of about INR 150 crores to INR 200 crores in the coming 2 financial years.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Okay. And one last question I wanted to ask is, last time -- last quarter, you mentioned your content creation cost on an annual basis is INR 160 crore. So after Zee, will it come down?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveNo. I think INR 160 crores to INR 170 crores is our overall cost base, out of which content can range anywhere from INR 100 crores to INR 140 crores.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. So that would come down after Zee?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveNo. We are making the same -- we're putting the same cash expense behind. We're just getting some part of it from Zee.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveUpfront.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveUpfront. So the value of the content and production is the same. It's only that Zee is paying us.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo INR 100 crores will be shared by you and Zee, right?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. INR 100 crores to INR 140 crores, I mean, depending on the market conditions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of [ Pravin Jadhav ], an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeSir, I wanted to know like the revenues between Zee and ALT. It will be 50%, 50%? Or like is there another ratio?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveWhat is revenue share? There is no revenue share. I don't know where we -- that this gets picked up. It's a cost share.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveCost share, no revenue subsidy.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. So whatever customers come to our app, like the 100% will be ours, right?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveAbsolutely.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeAnd sir, another question I have that regarding the mutual fund investments you have, like, on quarterly basis, it has been decreasing. So we are putting this money in the shows that we are making. So like, gradually, it will be decreasing or like any time it will stop and the cash flow...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveIf you just see the white print, what we have published is we have clearly shown you mutual fund investment plus we have shown some investment, which will be very short term, I think, 3 to 4 months, which we have deployed into distribution businesses, which will come back. So around close to -- cash and cash equivalents will be -- as we speak today, it would be in the range of INR 44 crores to INR 45 crores. That is cash and cash equivalents. So that's how you should see. It's movie business allocation.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeOkay. And sir, one more thing, your ALTBalaji app is there. You can see a lot of comments wherein people are having like problems when they have subscribed for it and they are not able to see it. So I think there are a lot of many complaints we can see. So I think we can see why they are facing issues on it. Like, do you have any like information on it?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveAre you asking us what is our customer complaint redressal mechanism?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. I like if you see the app, ALTBalaji, below there are a lot of comments wherein customers -- yes, wherein the customers, like they have subscribed the app but they're not able to see your like -- so much -- like lot of complaints are there.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWe are quite serious about the complaints. We try to reach out to this people. And it gets resolved also. But having said that if you see most of the app, you will find similar complaints.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveSo I think there are 2 or 3 issues in the complaint. One is payment, and second is usage. I think what we are prioritizing and tackling is the payment complaint format first. And the usage, some buttons, which are high-tech buttons, sometimes they complain about saying, we don't have the last 10 seconds rewind, that technology we communicate saying that it is going to take some time for us to get there. As you can understand, our technology investment right now are limited to around INR 19 crores, and they are focused on very basic, simple user experience. We are not comparable to some of our foreign competitors who have invested probably at least 100 or more than that, 100x times what we are on the usage part.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveExperience.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveSo payment is what we will kind of improve and you will see a continual improvement in. However, if you compare our app to some of the world standard apps where the investment levels are in billions of dollars, we are not able to achieve that kind of felicity or easy of use. Does that gives you a perspective?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. And sir, last question, sir. Regarding -- in last quarter, you were saying for the movie business, INR 80 crores were going to be receivables. So have we booked in this quarter, like, or is going to be booked in this fourth quarter?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveEach quarter, there is a receivable which comes down. My total capital employed into movie business continues to be around INR 100 crores. We will not breach that number.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Dharmik Prajapati from Prospero Tree.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystHello?
Operator
operatorMr. Prajapati, I'm really sorry, but there is disturbance from your line. The audio is not coming up too clearly.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystYes. I have a question on the movie business. Like, this time the revenue from the satellite rights has been recorded, like, contribution has come from the satellite rights if I am not wrong. So is there anything more left to be coming from the movie business in the Q4? Is there any...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWe have recorded all the possible revenues and the cost by YTD quarter 3. So nothing -- no spillover is there for quarter 4.
Dharmik Prajapati
analystOkay. Fine, sir. And this content sharing with Zee, like I was reading -- I was going through the IP, there you have written that acquired content is amortized over your license period. So this content will share for a limited license period or we have to get back this content, which we are providing to Zee5, the shows that we make for...
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveALTBalaji doesn't have any acquired content. So all contents are original exclusive to us.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveAnd Zee5.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveAnd our own IP. And from September 1, there are certain shows, which is around 30, as we speak today, are co-shared with Zee.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveZee, correct.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveWell, if there are none, we can conclude the proceedings.
Operator
operatorSure. Sir, there's just one that has come in now. We have the next question from the line of Rahul Jagwani from SKS Capital.
Rahul Jagwani;SKS Capital & Research Private Limited; Analyst
analystYes. What is the outlook, I mean, for your TV business now next year? I mean it's grown pretty well, at least in 9 months. And so how will FY '21...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveWe'll probably have a 10% growth over the TV business that we end up on this March 31, probably 10% more, largely fueled by production efficiencies and cost control on 4 of our long-running programs in combination with prospectively Naagin running longer and better management of costs.
Rahul Jagwani;SKS Capital & Research Private Limited; Analyst
analystOkay. And on your -- on the digital piece, there is a INR 55 crores revenue in 9 months. So that is all ALTBalaji revenue? Or what is that...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. It is ALTBalaji.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveALTBalaji means, ALTBalaji.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveALTBalaji, yes it is.
Rahul Jagwani;SKS Capital & Research Private Limited; Analyst
analystOkay. What is the split of this INR 55 crores? It's not all direct subscription, right? Or...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveSo our direct subscription revenue is now going to -- for this year, we will end our total revenue at INR 81 crores, out of which we expect INR 35 crores to INR 40 crores to come from direct.
Rahul Jagwani;SKS Capital & Research Private Limited; Analyst
analystOkay, okay. And then basically -- and you're expecting this INR 81 crores to double next year is what you're saying?
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. So we've done that. First year, we've got INR 7 crores; second year, we had INR 40 crores; third year, we are INR 80. So we will go to around INR 150 crores. But with our cost subsidy, our cost base will come down. So we will kind of breakeven at least 2 to 3 quarters in next year, next financial year.
Operator
operatorWe have the next question from the line of [ Roshan Shetty ], an investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeSo I wanted to understand, so this quarter, we know that because of the huge success of Dream Girl, we have a good movie business, a good revenue and good profit, EBITDA, revenue in movie business. So wanted to know if the movie is not doing good, so in that case, how much revenue in the proportion we get or profit is expected? Just to know if the movie is not doing good, what can be the expectation from that movie business from that single movie.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveOkay. So just ignore movies for the time being. That would give you a perspective, correct? So what happens to TV business and ALT business if movie is 0? Okay. So you should see the production hours which we have for TV. We are already looking at 800-plus hours this year, with virtually the realization per hour remaining at the same level. So if -- with the volume, the revenue goes up and if I show -- if I have the 5 shows, which is flagship shows continued, with those kind of margin, my profit will be much better than what we are seeing now or what we have seen last year. And -- or we have clearly demonstrated that how the cost is flowing now. With each quarter, we expect cost to only go down. So it's not that only because of movies that numbers, they are looking good.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveYes. If you look at the TV numbers, it's INR 25-plus crores and our loss on ALT is INR 16 crores. So even if we don't take movies, we are still in the clear and cash flow positive on the business.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeNo. That I understand because the Balaji Telefilms' TV business is a cash cow for the entire business. So just wanted to understand, since we are also getting into -- as our CFO mentioned, the INR 100 crore is always -- every year invested in movies assuming...
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveEvery year means?
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveOur capital deployed into motion pictures is restricted to INR 100 crores.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveINR 100 crores.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeINR 100 crores. Yes, yes.
Sanjay Dwivedi
executiveOkay. And out of which we clearly see that 4 movies or 3 to 4 movies will come in each year, separate costs are booked for the movies which can release in the following years also. You have to lock talent today, the movie gets released 2 years hence. So that's how you can see the movie business.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveAnd 3 of our next 4 movies are already presold, so we're -- we've already broken even in them as we stand now.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions, I would like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Please go ahead, sir.
Nachiket Pantvaidya
executiveThank you for joining us on this call. We have had a great quarter, record quarter in profits even if you include the losses of ALT. And we hope to continue this wonderful performance over the next 5, 6 years at least. So thank you.
Operator
operatorThank you, gentlemen. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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