Balrampur Chini Mills Limited (BALRAMCHIN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 9, 2024

National Stock Exchange of India IN Consumer Staples Food Products earnings 46 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Balrampur Chini Mills Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anoop Poojari from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Anoop Poojari

attendee
#2

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Balrampur Chini Mills' Q3 and 9M FY '24 Results Conference Call. We have with us Mr. Vivek Saraogi, Chairman and Managing Director; and Mr. Pramod Patwari, Chief Financial Officer of the company. We would like to begin the call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we'll have the forum open for a question-and-answer session. Before we start, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier. I would now like to invite Mr. Saraogi to make his opening remarks.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#3

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our results con call. I trust you had the opportunity to go through the results presentation providing details of our operational and financial performance. I will initiate the call with an update on current developments in the sector, followed by our company's key highlights for the period under review. As per the latest data from ISMA and the production estimates done by us, the gross number for production looks like about 332 to 333. Government has allowed and approved a diversion of sugarcane and B-heavy molasses, the combination of which is a total figure of 17 lakh tonnes or 1.7 million, therefore, leaving a net production of about 315 to 317 lakh tonnes or 31.7 million tonnes. Factoring in an opening stock of 5.6 million tonnes, domestic consumption of 28.5 million tonnes, net production of 315 to 317 or 31.5 million, it is projected the closing inventory for the current year, that is 1st October 2024, would be around 8.7 million to 8.8 million tonnes. To address the anticipated increase in inventory, we believe it is necessary to divert more sugar towards ethanol production. We are hopeful and we are liaising with the government to review its policy, which is limiting the divestment to 1.7 million tonnes of ethanol blending. This could help in elevating the surplus. However, the temporary alteration made by the Central Government in ethanol production has compelled companies to adjust their mid-season strategies, resulting in production of more sugar than was initially anticipated at the start of the season. Consequently, the shift in focus towards sugar production will reduce the availability of syrup and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production. As a result, sugar will be held for a longer period of time instead of being promptly converted into cash flow through sale of ethanol. This would have an additional cost as more working capital will be required and, therefore, a higher interest burden. Amidst these challenges, UP Government has raised SAP from INR 350 to INR 370, that's an increase of INR 20 per quintal. The increase in cane price this year adds to the pressure already felt by the lower diversion as done by the Central Government. Shifting our focus to our business performance, we are pleased to announce healthy operational and financial performance, supported by improved volumes, higher realizations across all segments. Enhancement in operational efficiency is driven by higher sugar production and further improved our overall results. Our dedicated engagement with the farming community has yielded significant benefits by working closely with the farmers over the past 2 seasons. We have strengthened our decade-old partnership resulting in improvement in both the quantity and we are hoping for a higher recovery also. Our efforts to enhance both the quality and quantity are proving successful, and we are hoping for a 10% increase in crushing and a higher recovery. It's a little too early to tabulate or give the figure, but yes, we are hoping for a higher recovery definitely. And already to date, we are higher than last year. To conclude, over the years, our integrated operations have enabled us to maintain a robust balance sheet, generate healthy cash flows, reflecting the strength of our business model. We remain committed to harnessing the synergies between sugar and distillery segments, which have been the key drivers of our success. And we, therefore, have the strength and the ability to navigate these transitory challenges. We plan to capitalize on future opportunities to create long-term value for our shareholders through a prudent balance between capital allocation, borrowing and reward to shareholders. So Pramod, this brings me to the end of my discussion. Now I'd like to hand over the floor to you.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#4

Thank you, sir. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. And as the presentation has already been shared with everyone, I would not like to repeat the financial highlights here once again, and we would straightaway go to the question-and-answer session. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Shailesh L. Kanani from Centrum Broking.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#6

Congratulations, sir, for an impressive performance, both in terms of profit and also in terms of crushing for the initial part of the season. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Avantika ma'am as well for her new role and wish her all the best. So first and foremost, I would like to get some guidance on ethanol volume numbers and route -- which route we will be using for the fourth quarter and FY '25, if you can shed some guidance on that?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#7

Thank you, Shailesh. For the FY '24, 9 months, we have already achieved INR 20 crore sales, including the ENA. And for the full financial year '24, the range is between INR 25 crores to INR 26 crores, including ENA. FY '25 will be difficult at this point in time to make any guess because we are not sure what kind of policy government will have. So even if I have to put any number, even if this program is repeated, then definitely 26 crores, 27 crores minimum for next year also. Otherwise, we have the ability to go up to 33 crores, 34 crores liter of ethanol ENA volume in FY '25.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#8

So I'd like to just add a little more and put things into perspective as I see them. So what we face this year is a, I would say, a reaction towards election from both the governments, center and state. So initial estimates were lower of sugar production at the net level and at the gross level. There were people who were talking of 29 million production at the net level. So that, I believe, sort of stoked a little too much of fear in the government's mind. And therefore, this kind of limit of diversion was put in. Having putting that, now I don't think anybody wants a price rise or any sort of eventualities we're going to deal with. So therefore, the stock is piling up. Now this piled-up stock would definitely be available for higher diversion next year. So in my personal view, again, it's a personal view, even next year production even if it decreases, let's say, 3 million tonnes, you would move from a gross level of 33.5, which is the gross level this year, to 30.5, let us say, which is still going to be 1 million to 1.5 million over consumption. So in your current stock at 85 lakh tonnes or 8.5 million, you would have 3 million. And next year, you would have a surplus of 1.5 million. So I believe personally that the ethanol program will be in full 100% flow on more juice, B-heavy, everything next year. So that's -- and I've given you the rationale behind it, there is sugar available to be diverted. Again, if not diverted, if we create a complete negative effect in the government's mind, the whole program began with the rationale of diverting surplus sugar, hence, ensuring market price and payment to farmers with no excess stock, but a cash flow to the mills. It is an aberration of a year because of election, to my mind. This stock, which will come in hand, will ensure that from next year onwards, in our view, there would be no more aberrations. So from next year, I think we'll go 100% full length, all in. I hope I've been able to give you the data correct...

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#9

Yes, sir. Yes, yes, yes, it's quite helpful, quite helpful. Just to reiterate, so in FY '25, the worst-case situation or, I would say, the situation what we are currently in, we are expecting at least 25 crores to 26 crores of volumes, at least a flattish volume. Though we have a capacity of higher volumes, but we will do at least that in current situation?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#10

Yes, but you're not allowed to use it.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#11

So we would be using other feedstocks like grain, maize, damaged grains, that would give us this comfort of 25 crores, 26 crores?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#12

Yes. So we have only one multi-feed distillery, that is in Maizapur. So that will be used throughout with these products, hopefully, but the others are not multi-feed. They are planned for B-heavy and juice, the other one.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#13

Okay. Fair enough. So this guidance based on that estimate, on that assumption that government will relax the policy for next season, basically. Fair enough. It sounds logical and reasonable. Fine, sir. Sir, can I get some data keeping questions, like how would be our diversion of sugarcane for the current quarter?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#14

I don't do the -- Pramod, you will attempt to do the...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#15

Quarter-wise, it is very difficult.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#16

It's very difficult, quarter-wise. You should see the season.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#17

For this season, it's already disclosed in the presentation.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#18

9 months, yes, yes, it's been disclosed. In the next quarter...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#19

But still, I would like to give an attempt. So this year, we got an allocation of around 3 crores liter for juice-based. So maybe around 37 lakh to 38 lakh quintals of sugar will get diverted towards that route. And around 11.5 crores to 12 crores is B-heavy. So rest, we go for C-heavy.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#20

Fair enough. That's helpful. Sir, how are we looking at this season in terms of gross recovery? Last time -- last season, if I recall, it was around 11.6%. So we are expecting at least 11.6%, right, on the gross level?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#21

Higher, higher. At the gross level, 11.62% was the figure last year, we're expecting higher recovery this year, higher than 11.6%. So just -- Avantika has just joined us. So Avantika will take you through the cane efforts made by us and variety next year, this year, just a quick rundown on cane.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#22

So good morning and good afternoon, everyone. I just want to update on the season already gone by and whatever is left in this season. So up until now, mostly we have crushed ratoon cane, which has already resulted in a better recovery than last year at this moment in time. And also, going forward, our plant cane varietal mix is even better than the ratoon cane. So this should result in a higher jump even than what we are at now. So the recoveries being higher and the cane crush being higher, both of that will gross up just the way it did last year. So again, in both ways, we will have a better result. Other than this, we have been able to tackle top borer, red rot and any other small or big phenomena, whether it's El Niño, whether it's La Niña, whatever it is, we are ready for everything. And we've been able to tackle it and we are coming out on top. So I would say our varietal mix is probably one of the best in the country at this moment.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#23

It's a tall ask, but yes, things are better.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#24

I think -- yes, yes, things are good. So I would say very positive for the season that's left and also for the coming season.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#25

So basically, what has been achieved is through effort, we are not deep diving into even managing the soil deficiency, et cetera. So we're taking this now to the next level where we can build our reinforcement to the best of our ability against any climatic fluctuation.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#26

And I want to add one thing, multiple reports of El Niño phenomena dampening and La Niña emerging will help industry at large as well.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#27

Let's not make that claim right now. So our variety, if you see our variety, it would be probably definitely the best in UP with minimum infestation of 0238, which has, in some areas, played havoc with red rot. So we will emerge as -- post season, you would be able to see the comparison yourself. For all the companies of last year, crushing last year recovery versus current year crushing current year recovery, we feel the delta for Balrampur should be the best.

Operator

operator
#28

The next question is from the line of Achal Lohade from JM Financial.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#29

Just to extend the earlier comment, Avantika, you made with respect to cane development. Given the efforts gone into and the results what you're seeing, a, is there a substantial scope to increase the cane crushing in terms of availability of cane? Or let's say, over the next 3 to 5 years, could this go up by 30%, 40% in terms of the existing acreage as well as possibility of increasing the acreage?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#30

So it's a little bit difficult for me to answer in the exact terms which you have asked, but I'll attempt. So we do have hope to increase cane to maybe 10% more level at this crushing capacity that we have. If we need to increase crushing more, we would need to increase our capacity, which can happen, which would be a management decision, which will happen as and when it goes...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#31

By the Board.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#32

If you're asking me scope in East UP, yes, there's definitely scope in East UP.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#33

So as she put it, assume our internal estimates are 10% higher -- 10%, 11% higher than last year and we are able to crush 11.4 crore quintals against 1,030, so another 7%, 8% would take us to -- just to put it, our current capacity as a combination of sugar crushing capacity, juice B-heavy, we can handle up to 12.5 crore quintals of cane with our current capacity, and we hope to get that next year.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#34

And sir, this assumes that we end the season by what, May, or is that assuming to June?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#35

No. Yes, April end, early May. So we'll be able to begin early, which -- that is the best variety is [ 15023 ]. We have now a very good combination, which can help us begin early next year. So if you are able to crush that variety, when you begin the season, your recovery is not hampered. So it allows you to start early, the same asset is used for 15 days more, and that is a 10% jump on the production. So no enhancement of season required largely. You crush during the peak period by beginning early. So farmer does not face disincentive, recovery is not hampered.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#36

Perfect. Sir, the second question I had with respect to the diversion, the 1.7 million tonne cap the government exports, you said that the government -- the industry is representing to increase this. Now given where we are currently standing on 9th of February, how much scope -- like if the government decides, let's say, tomorrow in a positive way, how much more can be diverted according to your estimate?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#37

So you want a very, very frank answer?

Achal Lohade

analyst
#38

Yes. Yes, sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#39

I don't think government is allowing it. So let's understand and let me be very frank as to what will happen and why and why I said what I said in the earlier call. Over 10 years, our Honorable Prime Minister has personally been monitoring the ethanol program, even in recent biofuel concern or something, he has again spoken about ethanol. So this is a blip, a blip is owing to a reason in their minds. I'm not saying right or wrong. This is a pain point inflicted on us based on inflation scare in government's mind owing to elections. I don't see that coming off in 2 months. Hence, I don't think we're going to be allowed any diversion currently. Having said that, why I said what I said in the beginning is that the entire surplus will either be allowed to go into B-heavy or exported if needed. So the government began with a rationale in 2015, '16. It has helped this and enhanced this program by giving correct prices of B, C, juice, et cetera. Even this year, they're compensated by giving a higher C price. So that proves the program is a prima donna in their mind. The program is here to last. They love the program. All the benefits of the program, including the environment, farmer, are all in place. This is a 1-year blip. So that blip lasts, it gives you feedstock buildup so that you will continue permanently here, and I see a lot of incentivization as we go ahead.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#40

Got it. Another question I had is, how are the current realization? How do you see it given the context of increased sugar inventory building up at the country level? How do you see the sugar prices playing out over the next few months given we are getting into off-season?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#41

Yes, I would say one's enthusiasm for a higher price, as was said before this limit of 1.7 million tonne diversion, so that enthusiasm definitely dampened. It's very difficult to project. Assume election happens and assume whoever comes in, the government comes in and says, okay, this cane price is outstanding, there is surplus, export 1 million. So the whole trajectory changes. So one can't predict the price. Having said that, the current levels look, Pramod, close to bottom to me.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#42

What is the current realization?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#43

I would say, let's say, for UP, 37.5, 38 looks like a bottom to me. East UP basis, 38 kind of looks like holding.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#44

Understood. Sir, one more question I had with respect to -- you mentioned in your opening remarks future opportunities. Would it be possible to get some more sense on this, where -- what we can possibly look at, where are we in terms of that decision-making?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#45

So as we said earlier, the Board is deliberating, and you will hear as and when the Board decides.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#46

Understood. But is it possible to get some more idea in terms of the size, et cetera? Or you won't comment...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#47

No, size of what?

Achal Lohade

analyst
#48

In terms of the CapEx, in terms of the opportunity or...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#49

If you understand...

Achal Lohade

analyst
#50

Could that be very large or could that be just...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#51

SEBI, company law, is it possible for me to comment, my friend? It's Board-driven. Can I say anything right now?

Achal Lohade

analyst
#52

Got it. No problem...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#53

As per law, I can't say anything.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#54

Understood. Sir, is it possible to get some sense given the cost -- the cane cost we know, the broader sense we have in terms of crushing and the recovery, what could be the closing inventory valuation? I don't want a precise last paisa per kg, but a ballpark, could it be similar to last year? Or could it be higher given the cane cost is higher, given the realizations are higher?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#55

Achal, though the cane cost has gone up, but we are going to get the benefit of better recoveries and higher volumes. So I think inventory should be valued around INR 34 by end of March.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#56

Against last year.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#57

Last year was INR 33.70.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#58

Understood. Sir, similarly, if you could help us understand, given the increase in the working capital requirement because of higher sugar production, what kind of interest cost one should pencil in? Could there be a big delta to that actually?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#59

I think we -- for the 9 months, it is around INR 59 crores, INR 60 crores. So it looks like INR 85 crores for the full year.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#60

Against? He is asking for the increase...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#61

Against INR 48 crores last year.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#62

Almost double. You mean INR 48 crores...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#63

Going to INR 85 crores.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#64

INR 85 crores, okay. INR 48 crores -- INR 50 crores going to INR 85 crores now.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#65

Got it. Just one more last question. Sorry, I'm going again back to the macro question, sir. If the monsoon was to be normal this year, I presume what you said would be possible. But if the monsoon gets impacted because of the El Niño factor, is there a substantial downside risk to the numbers what you gave for sugar season '25, sir?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#66

So Achal, if you remember, I've already taken a 3 million downtick next year. If you recall, I said the gross production this year, 335. I am saying 305 for next year. UP is not going down a penny. UP might only go up. So I'm penciling in a 3 million drop only in Karnataka, Maharashtra, which is probably the highest drop. Things will only improve from here. So this is thinking that there's going to be no great monsoon. I am factoring in probably the worst-case scenario.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#67

Got it. And just one last clarification, sir. In terms of -- you mentioned that we have only one multi-feed distillery in Maizapur. Obviously, given the volatility in the sugar production and the cycle, et cetera, how difficult is to convert the existing distilleries into multi-feed; and b, what time and cost does it require to convert a distillery into multi-feed?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#68

So one distillery would require about INR 50-odd crores to convert. But I'm not in -- we are not in favor of doing that.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#69

Okay. Understood. How much time does it take to add the balancing...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#70

6 to 9 months, I don't think more than that.

Achal Lohade

analyst
#71

Oh, it takes 6 to 9 months.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#72

Yes, yes, minimum because milling system, it requires time. But we see the program going full pelt ahead, full pelt. So if I may just remind everybody and take you back to COVID days, there were 100 queries, and I would get scared that crude went to 0, if I recall correctly. And people were thinking that the ethanol program where our price was fixed at, whatever, Pramod, I don't recall that. With crude going to 0, what would be government's reaction? Would it pick up the ethanol? Would price get reduced? So all we said was the contract is signed on the beginning of the year for the full year, there's going to be 0 sort of truncation either in the price or in the quantity. There was scare floating. Again, if you recall, there was -- everything got picked up at decent price with 100% volume pickup. So I get back from that memory and take you down to today, the program is etched in stone to our best of my ability is all I can say. The program is absolutely on the top of the minds of our Honorable Prime Minister, this one can say from his dialogue, which one sees, and you see he lives up to his word. So I don't see any debate in that area. In my mind, cane has to be available.

Operator

operator
#73

The next question is from the line of Sanjay Manyal from DAM Capital.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#74

I just have a few questions. One is on the domestic quota, which we have received in January and Feb, I believe it is still on the lower side. Given the fact that Maharashtra, Karnataka will be lower in production, is it expected that it would be higher from March to November? Or when do you think that UP millers should get a higher quota?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#75

I think from March onwards, you get a much better quota. Your point is correct. For East UP, what happens, East UP starts a little late, typically, than Maharashtra, Karnataka, even West UP. So your assumption is absolutely correct, that's all I can say.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#76

Okay. Okay. And just, sir, one more thing. I think a lot of millers in UP and probably in Maharashtra also would like to sort of diversify into the maize ethanol, what I understand. You think that economics are proper right now? Or is there any decent availability of maize in the surrounding area or any work which has been happening with the farmer in the surrounding areas?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#77

So right now, it's not very, very lucrative. So obviously, if you have a maize distillery, one should look at working with their farmers in and around their area to get procurement both in terms of correct price and the correct time, correct starch, et cetera.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#78

Okay, okay. Fine. And you mentioned that you are still expecting further crushing numbers in the next season. And so any CapEx which probably can come -- I know this is not probably a right time for a lot of millers will not be thinking about the ethanol CapEx. But you -- given the fact that it is a downtime, you would sort of venture into -- you would like to venture into the ethanol in next 1 year or 2 years?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#79

So as we said, we already have scope to crush 10% more. So we -- let us get that cane. Our ethanol capacity already can crush more cane than we -- use more cane than we are crushing.

Operator

operator
#80

Our next question is from the line of Vikram Suryavanshi from PhillipCapital.

Vikram Suryavanshi

analyst
#81

I think most questions are answered. But just to get a bit clarity on the grain side, Maizapur, I guess we have 320 KLPD distillery side. And are we producing any ethanol from grain currently or any outlook on grain output from the distillery this year?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#82

For us?

Vikram Suryavanshi

analyst
#83

Yes, sir.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#84

So maybe around 4 crores liter of grain-based ethanol we will be doing this year.

Vikram Suryavanshi

analyst
#85

Okay. And is this kind broken rice or maize?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#86

Combination.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#87

It will be a combination.

Operator

operator
#88

The next question is from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities.

Rajesh Majumdar

analyst
#89

So sir, most of my questions are answered, but I had a couple of questions. On the power side, number one, you have mentioned about 3 units now selling at merchant power. Are any other units also there where the PPA is coming to a conclusion or more merchant power can be available? That was my first question.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#90

We will get back to you.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#91

Only 2 units are out...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#92

Only 2 units are selling.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#93

Only 2 units.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#94

But there is a sequence, we will get back. So let me tell you this, currently, as per policy, you can only sell, move out of PPA once the PPA term expires. So it's been a good exercise. We did it for the first time. Probably, I think we were the first in UP to do it, this merchant power. It's proving to be a cash positive exercise.

Rajesh Majumdar

analyst
#95

Okay. Okay. And my second question was, sir, in this kind of a flip-flop situation by the government, as a business manager, how do you decide what to do with the cane? Do you make it into sugar and put in the inventory? Or you store molasses in the hope that April, policy will be reversed? How do you really go about this thing? Because you have to crush the cane, a lot of cane is coming with increased recoveries, et cetera. So either you have to make sugar out of it or store it as molasses. What is the kind of decision you take in these turbulent times?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#96

There is no such suspense as you put it. Government has allowed you certain diversions. So that much, you can make B-heavy or juice; the rest you crush, make sugar as per C-heavy.

Rajesh Majumdar

analyst
#97

So you will make sugar, okay. That was my question only, sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#98

There is no management decision. There is no option.

Rajesh Majumdar

analyst
#99

But if in the sugar year, the policy again changes somewhere in the middle, then what do you do?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#100

I didn't get your question.

Rajesh Majumdar

analyst
#101

I'm saying during this course of sugar year, maybe in April or so, if the policy again changes, then what do you do?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#102

If your factory shuts down, what can you do? So that's too late, no? Once your factory shuts, you have no option. So I'm just telling you, there is no management decision, nothing. It's as per government directive.

Operator

operator
#103

Our next question is from the line of Nitin Awasthi from InCred Research.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#104

All my questions were regarding the ethanol supply that we have done and we are proposing that we'll do based on the Slide 22 of your presentation. So if I'm reading that correctly, we had a plan of supplying 19 crore liters roughly in the -- under the first tender, but now we'll end up supplying around 10 crore liters. Is that correct? 9 crore liters, sorry, so we are foregoing 10 crore liters.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#105

So for this year, I think we have given the data in the presentation. For 19 crores, contract is already in hand, and we are going to bid for further quantity in the time to come, in the next cycle also.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#106

Correct. So this 19 crores is -- but this 19 crores includes the syrup and B-heavy that is no more allowed, right?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#107

19 crores includes juice-based ethanol, B-heavy as well as grain-based ethanol.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#108

Correct. So hence, I took out the figures which you have provided, and then we come down from 19 crores to roughly 9 crores and we see a -- and so is that -- would that be the correct figure?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#109

19 crores to 9 crores, I'm not getting you.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#110

Even I'm not understanding.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#111

So you have said you have already supplied 4.29 crore liters. Out of the 19 crore liters that you have, so what we call, got the initial tender for. Now out of that, you only have the C route and damaged food grains that you can further supply. Am I correct? Or am I doing something wrong?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#112

No, no, you are correct.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#113

So if I add the balance 1.4 crores of C-heavy and 3.23 crores damaged food grains, so that will come to close to 9 crore liters, hence, I arrived at the figure of 9 crore liters.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#114

So out of 11.5 crores of B-heavy, we supplied only 2.5 crores. Out of 3 crores of juice, we supplied only 1.85 crores, right? C-heavy, we haven't supplied anything. Grain-based C-heavy supplied...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#115

So that we will keep bidding and giving when these 2 finish.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#116

Understood. Understood. But -- okay. No worries, got it. Sir, the next thing I just want to understand, the second tender, which is out, that is only for the second -- until the second quarter of the current ethanol season, correct?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#117

Yes.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#118

Okay. So the third quarter, this ethanol season, the tender will be out soon, probably?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#119

Right.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#120

So just to fill you up or sort of handle any ambiguity at anyone's end, government is open and keen and anxious to buy as much C or grain which you give them.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#121

Noted, sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#122

Yes. So tenders for these 2 is open. I mean today also, without a tender, if you want to go and give them C, so suppose you had 100 liters of B and juice, which you had bid for earlier, and your government has restricted you to 50, okay, they are saying that 50 you can convert to C today. You don't need a tender for it also.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#123

Oh, got it. Got it.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#124

So just to let you know how keen and anxious they are to get ethanol without sacrificing sugar.

Operator

operator
#125

The next question is from the line of [ Arkopratim Pal ] from Sanjay Agarwal Broking.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#126

My question is, given the evolving Ethanol Blended Petrol program, how do you foresee it impacting the distillery division sales and profitability in the upcoming years?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#127

I think we have given all the numbers in the call earlier, what kind of volume we are looking at for the FY '24. And we have also given our detailed rationale, what kind of assumption we can take for next year.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#128

Okay. My second question is based on market analysis, the company is aiming to triple the distillery division revenue share, right? So do you...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#129

Sorry?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#130

As per market analysis, the company is aiming to triple the distillery division. I mean according to your last year revenue share in distillery division is around 11% to increase in 35%. So do you anticipate the EBP program to have any significant impact on the upcoming distillery capacity increase?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#131

So that was last year when there was no restriction by the Government of India on the limited diversion of ethanol. So at that point in time, we expected that our overall revenue from distillery would be around 1/3 of our total relative. So we have never given any guidance that we would be increasing our distillery capacity further by 1/3.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#132

Okay. So this new policy, the EBP program policy, would be impacting on this particular fiscal?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#133

Isn't it obvious?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#134

Okay. So how do you expect about the demand scenario of the current and upcoming year on that distillery division?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#135

Demand is unlimited as far as ethanol is concerned. It is only a temporary rationalization, which the government has done this year. I hope you understand that.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#136

Okay. I understand, sir.

Operator

operator
#137

Our next question is from the line of [ Dhvaneet Savla ] from [ Savla Family Office ].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#138

Congratulations on a good set of numbers. I had 2 questions. One is...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#139

No, you're not audible. I can't hear you. We can't hear you.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#140

Okay. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. I had 2 questions. Firstly, can you give us a breakup of the -- out of the current 9-month ethanol production, which has been done, how much has been done through the various routes? And second is more of a strategic question. Seeing that the government is still very keen on achieving a 20% ethanol blending target probably in the next coming -- next few years, is there any kind of internal projection of how much a upside Q2 are revenues and profitability kind of a study, which has been done at Balrampur in light of that?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#141

So for first question, you may please refer to Page #20 and 21 of our presentation. And we have said what we have to say on the -- on our thinking of how the government is doing -- government can think of as far as ethanol is concerned in the coming year.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#142

Just -- I understand that. Just wanted to know that is there any kind of projection which you are working with? Or is there no current projection which you are working with?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#143

So our ability to produce is around 33 crore to 35 crore liters annually, which includes ENA. And if there is no restriction, we should be in a position to achieve that.

Operator

operator
#144

Our next question is from the line of Krutika Vispute from Tata PMS.

Krutika Vispute

analyst
#145

Just putting together what you have mentioned earlier...

Operator

operator
#146

Sorry, madam, may I request you to use your handset, please?

Krutika Vispute

analyst
#147

Just putting together what you mentioned just a few minutes back saying that there have been restrictions on B-heavy and juice route. But one can anyway sell higher than the tendered amount in terms of B-heavy ethanol, right?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#148

Right, right.

Krutika Vispute

analyst
#149

Going by that, now also seeing that in light of us expecting a higher crush this year and better recoveries as well, so why would we instead of going for more sugar go for higher of seeds? Because even if you look at the profitability after the increase that you got recently on the C-heavy side, would it still not make sense to go higher than the 19 crore liters? Or is it 24 crore liter that you are -- 25 crore liters that you are expecting, you are up to [ 34 crore something ] that you can do from the existing capacity? Why are we not choosing to do that instead from C-heavy?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#150

I'll attempt to just clarify the concept. So in sugarcane, once you are making sugar at the max that you can, that is the only time you are left with C-heavy, right? So we don't have the option of increasing C-heavy out of the blue. It's -- once the total cane crushes...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#151

It's either B, C or juice. The C and juice -- B and juice, you've been restricted by the government. The balance is C. So there is no interplay available if you -- that's what you're asking.

Krutika Vispute

analyst
#152

Yes. So maybe a different way, if I can ask how much is the maximum of C-heavy that we can get from our capacity if we divert everything in C-heavy, what is the maximum volume of ethanol that we can make?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#153

So we are producing maximum of C what we can do under the circumstances.

Krutika Vispute

analyst
#154

Okay. And for the full year, on the [ thousand -- 30 crore or, let's say, close to 1,200 ], how much can we go on C-heavy in absolute terms for the whole season?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#155

We did not want to and we do not want to do any more C-heavy than we are allowed. It's already a burden to keep that sugar.

Operator

operator
#156

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#157

Thank you very much for joining us, and I hope we've been able to give you both a macro and a micro picture. For any further queries, Pramod is available, we are all available. Thank you.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#158

Thank you, everyone.

Operator

operator
#159

Thank you. On behalf of Balrampur Chini Mills, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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