Balrampur Chini Mills Limited (BALRAMCHIN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 16, 2025

National Stock Exchange of India IN Consumer Staples Food Products earnings 43 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Balrampur Chini Mills Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anoop Poojari from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you.

Anoop Poojari

attendee
#2

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Balrampur Chini Mills Q4 and FY '25 Results Conference Call. We have with us today Mr. Vivek Saraogi, Chairman and Managing Director; Ms. Avantika Saraogi, Executive Director; and Mr. Pramod Patwari, Chief Financial Officer of the company. We would like to begin the call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we'll have the forum open for a question-and-answer session. Before we start, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier. I would now like to invite Mr. Saraogi to make his opening remarks.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#3

Thank you, Anoop, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on our Q4 and FY '25 earnings conference call. I will initiate the call with an update on the current developments in the sugar sector, followed by our company's key highlights for the period under review. According to the latest estimates, India's production for season '24-'25 is projected at 26 million on a net basis after diversion, accounting for a diversion of 3.5 million, which means gross 29.5 million, 3.5 million diversion, 26 million net production. This marks a decline from 32 million net in the previous year, primarily due to reduced cane availability impacted by unfavorable weather conditions across key producing states. In UP, production is estimated at 9.28 million tonnes, down from 10.35 million tonnes in the previous season on the net basis. The state faced several headwinds in the first half of the season, red rot disease in ratoon crop increased diversion to Gur and Kahndsari and lower sucrose content due to climatic patterns. Encouragingly, the second half saw an improvement in cane availability supported by better yields. Meanwhile, Maharashtra Karnatak produced around 8.1 million tonnes and 4.2 million tonnes, again, on a net basis, respectively. On the demand side, India's domestic consumption is estimated at approximately 28 million tonnes. Despite the reduced net availability post diversion, domestic requirements are expected to be comfortably met, aided by an opening stock of 8 million. Consequently, the closing stock of the current year that is stock as on 1st October '25 is expected to be around 5.2 million. The tight inventory position is anticipated to support firm sugar prices, critical for enabling timely payment to the farmers, ensuring liquidity amidst particularly this firmer sugar price has been helpful amidst no price revision for juice and B-heavy ethanol. Government's 1 million export quota has also contributed to firming of sugar price in our -- for our company around INR 41 a kg that is the current prevailing price. However, for '24-'25 ethanol year, while diversion of sugarcane juice and B-heavy. So the restriction on quantum was lifted, but there was no price increase given. This marks a shift from the government's prior practice of aligning ethanol prices with changes in FRP, making sugar diversion for ethanol unattractive. If this persists, it could undermine the government's E30 blending program by 2030. On the business front, Balrampur concluded the fiscal year 2025 on a stable note. The Sugar segment delivered a strong performance this quarter, driven by healthy margins. However, the Distillery segment, as you know, was impacted by government's decision not to revise the price for juice ethanol and B-heavy ethanol despite revision in FRP. Our proactive approach to varietal rebalancing farm engagement helped increase canes throughput and achieved a comparatively better recovery to peers. In fact, our crushing was down only 1.4% year-on-year and gross recovery dropped by 0.46, which is the lowest decline amongst factories in East UP. In line with our commitment to sustainable and value-added diversification, we are making strong progress on our PLA project, which forms an integral part of our broader strategy to build a future-ready and fully integrated business model. The 80,000 tonne capacity of our PLA plant is on track for commissioning by Q3 FY '27 with a CapEx of INR 2,850 crores or net figure is INR 1,750 crores accounting for government subsidy of 50%. Supported by state's pioneering bioplastics policy, the project benefits from a robust incentive framework, further strengthening its long-term viability. The facility will produce 100% bio-based PLA using sugar as feedstock and is expected to generate around INR 2,000 crores annual revenue. And hopefully, since it's the first time we are entering into this business, that's why the word hopefully, EBITDA margin of 35%. Powered entirely by renewable energy, the plant will not only drive sustainability but also -- but will also create significant employment opportunity in manufacturing and research. By leveraging our agri-based value chain, the project positions us to meet India's rising demand for green alternative and reinforces our role in advancing nation's circular economy and climate goals. Over the years, our integrated operations have consistently adapted to evolving industry dynamics. The upcoming PLA project is a natural evolution of our strategy to extract maximum value from each stick of cane by advancing our green transition. With growing regulatory support and consumer demand for bio-based alternatives, we are confident in our ability to sell the product and deliver long-term sustainable growth. Looking forward, our focus remains on value maximization, sustainability and disciplined capital allocation. Our diversified and future-ready business model positions us to deliver long-term growth and deliver value to our shareholders. This brings me to end of our discussion. Avantika, now I request to give an update on the cane.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#4

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining the call. Thank you for having me here. So an update on the cane is that I just want to look back a little bit on the performance and then talk about the future. So while the UP cane has declined to the tune of maybe 2.5% to 3% on average, Balrampur's cane availability has only reduced by 1.74%. This is a testament to all our actions that we have done and we continue to do in terms of disease, insect, pest containment, varietal balance, the right variety in the right place, the right thing for the right farmer, including soil type, including upland, low land, including waterlogging, everything. So this is something that is now part of Balrampur's DNA and of course, ratoon management as well. So now we are only -- I think we should be outperforming industry benchmarks. That's all I can say. Also on the recovery front, I want to highlight that while UP has had a 0.62-odd percent drop, but Rampur has only had 0.46%. This is on a gross sugar available in the sugarcane. It's called [ Poland Cane ], which is only what we can measure today because of the ethanol diversion. So while our drop difference is only 0.15% as compared to UP, but if we see it in absolute terms, our recovery is 0.7% better than UP average, again, testament to our cane quality and our cane quantity as well. Looking forward, our varietal balance is, of course, changing. Now we only have -- as also forecasted previously, now we have only 6% of 0238, which has the red rot -- which is affected by red rot. All the other varieties are very healthy. And all the new varieties, which are also put into the stream are acclimatizing well. And now hopefully, we should see some yield enhancement if weather is on our side definitely. And even if weather is not on our side, we should see the lowest drop. This is sort of what we work with. So we are open to questions, and thank you very much.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We take our first question from the line of Shailesh Kanani from Centrum Broking.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#6

Congrats, sir, on good set of numbers given the challenges we have faced during the season. Sir, my first question is with respect to sugar volumes. How do we see that shaping up for the year FY '26, given that inventory levels are higher in spite of a 20% increase in the sugar sacrifice for the year?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#7

Pramod would answer. Pramod?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#8

Shailesh, as of 31st of March, we are holding around 7.1 lakh tonnes of sugar. And in the month of April, we also produced something. If you take that into account, it will be around 7.5 million tonnes. This entire inventory would be liquidated within November itself. Thereafter, depending upon the quota allocation, we will have to assume something. But if you see our last 2 years data, we have been in the reason of selling around 9.4 lakh tonnes of sugar for [indiscernible].

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#9

Sir, just to add, the reason I was asking that the 9.4 average what we had, we had a little bit of a lower side when the inventory was a little on the lower side. This time around we have a little higher inventory. So I was wondering if we can see an uptick on the volume that way.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#10

So maybe 10 lakh tonnes is what we can -- but this is a guess as of now.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#11

Yes. So that is what I was thinking, okay.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#12

We're hoping for a little higher volume for sure.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#13

Yes, absolutely. Sir, my second question was with respect to sugar prices. We have seen a marginal uptick for FY '25, broadly in line with our increase in cost of production. And FY '26 looks to have started on a promising note with already sugar prices above FY '27 average by around INR 2 per kg. How do we foresee this average playing out for FY '26?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#14

So right now, as we have informed you, our price is around INR 41. And Pramod, I think this is what has been prevailing in this quarter approximately around this range. So I would say that this should be -- this price level should definitely maintain. And the rest would depend on the government's policy for next year. So if at all, one can see a marginal uptick in the coming months.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#15

That's helpful. That's helpful. Sir, one data point from the PPT. There was a slight year-on-year dip in the transfer pricing of syrup, whereas sugar prices in general have gone up. So what is the rationale behind that, sir?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#16

Last year, the production was restricted on account of that, the conversion cost was on a higher side. The loaded conversion cost of the syrup quantity was on a higher side.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#17

Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. Can I squeeze in one more question?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#18

Why not?

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#19

Sir, this question is with respect to Avantika, ma'am. Ma'am, we have kind of earlier indicated about increasing our catchment area as well, right? And in our earlier commentary, we have also said that Eastern UP has better scope in terms of increasing the catchment area vis-a-vis the other parts like Western UP. How are we placed over there? If you can throw some light on that aspect of increasing the crushing?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#20

I'll Avantika try and take this question, then you can come in. So if you've seen the Honorable Chief Minister's statement of late, he has said that he would reallocate area from defaulters to good pay masters. So one definitely remains hopeful on that front. And those areas itself have a lot of scope to develop because they have been belonging to not so good paymasters and therefore, the farmer does not develop cane there. On our cane area, we are working hard and Avantika rest on to you.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#21

So we -- our ultimate goal is cane availability, right? How much can I crush. So that is not always dependent on areas. We are seeing -- we have actually seen that it depends more on yield than on area in the past 3 years, at least I can say that pretty confidently. So even when our area was increasing, the cane was not increasing. But as the area stays a bit stagnant, the yields start to also improve a little bit. So it's not -- it's a sort of balancing act. And at the end of the day, our cane availability should remain strong.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#22

If I'm to hazard a guess, and please mark my language, it says hazard a guess. Next season, probably some uptick and thereafter a very decent uptick.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#23

Yes, that is what actually I wanted to understand on the directional price.

Operator

operator
#24

We'll take our next question from the line of Sanjay Manyal from DAM Capital.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#25

I have a few questions on ethanol part. Given the fact that there is no increase in the ethanol prices, is it safe to say that now the industry-wise capacities are enough to sort of meet 20% blending and government was not very keen, it seems that they will take this 20% to further up because there was one statement by Oil and Gas Minister that there is no such plan as of now. So you think that now government is comfortable about the fact that there is enough capacity to meet 20% and they will not give any price hike or they're not sort of keeping the formula of FRP linkage with ethanol price?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#26

Okay. I'll answer this in 2 parts. I don't think that message is in that manner, which you said. I think there's a statement of saying E30 by 2030. I mentioned that in my opening remarks. So let's understand what happened this year. To the best of our knowledge, the OMCs and the petroleum ministry got a bit stingy and they wanted to maximize profits. The impact of that will be very severely felt in future if they do not repair the mistake. So even now if I go back to mathematics for the oil company, the ethanol based -- the maize-based ethanol is being bought at INR 71.86. And Pramod, the juice ethanol INR 65...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#27

INR 61.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#28

INR 65, INR 61. So there is no basis of paying INR 6 higher for maize ethanol. And there was a misnomer that the sugarcane is a bigger water guzzler than maize. Now that has ended, that debate has conclusively ended in parliament and with the interministerial committee study. So we are back on even keel or we are in an advantage against maize on the concept of cultivation. Avantika, you can also guide. Secondly, this hurt and this pain point has now, to the best of our knowledge, been understood by the government. So one cannot repair the past, but I think the future remains linkage back to FRP, but too early. But one is definitely hopeful. Avantika, do you want to say something?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#29

If we just compare agri-based feedstocks for anything, whether it is for ethanol or for [indiscernible] or for PLA for that matter, sugarcane remains to be the most environmentally efficient crop, whether it is land use, whether it is water use, whether it is carbon footprint or whether it is even remuneration on a long-term basis to the farmer itself from one same piece of land year-on-year. So there is no denying that, maybe people might sort of try to move away, but ultimately, they have to come back because this logic is impalable. So I would say that let them...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#30

And I think government has understood this concept. The display of the understanding should be evident by next year or when the ethanol price is fixed.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#31

Sure, sir. In a similar context, you mentioned about the maize, if not eyes at INR 71, so how is now economics given the fact that maize prices have also come down and probably the enough availability of rice. So what is -- how are the margins in grain ethanol? And what are our plans? Because I think we still have a fungible capacity to the tune of INR 10 crores or maybe we'll do only INR 5 crores or INR 6 crores. But what is our plan? And what are the margins in the grain ethanol?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#32

Pramod will take that?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#33

Sanjay, our intention was always to utilize this maize capacity or the rice capacity in the off-season. And the capacity is not more than INR 6 crores if we have full availability of molasses -- B-heavy molasses or juices availability.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#34

I would say Pramod, because you need some shutdown times, INR 5 crores, INR 5.5 crores.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#35

INR 5 crores to INR 6 crores.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#36

Yes. So this is a balancing -- maize is equal to balancing factor post juice in Maizapur. We have one single capacity. Two, maize price has not reduced, it remains stagnant. What I did is give a comparative between what the OMC buys maize ethanol at and juice ethanol. That is what I did. Just to sort of drill down the logic that if one is looking at profitability for OMC, even on that front, now we stand out very conclusively, what are we stand out conclusively. Any projection to meet any demand E30 by 2030, not possible without this INR 40,000 crores invested, we have highlighted that. Surplus sugar diversion, one could play games -- wrong word. One could not do this when there is no excess, but when there is excess, I think, again, that will work in our favor. So all the factors are pointing towards back to FRP linkage from next year.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#37

Okay. Understood. And sir, if you can just quantify, is it possible to quantify grain ethanol margin either from the maize or the broken rice?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#38

So we don't do broken rice because maize is better. Pramod?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#39

Sanjay, it will vary on a company-to-company basis. Our intent is to utilize our capacity.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#40

Pramod, maize raw material has been better available and lower price. We will definitely make money.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#41

We will make some money but it cannot be compared with the person who is doing full year match capacity, who is utilizing this capacity on a full year basis only.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#42

But Pramod, I would differ a bit, but we have our own energy source, which they don't. So we are far more efficient there.

Sanjay Manyal

analyst
#43

Perfect. So just one more question on the recovery part. I think -- is it that the entire industry, specifically in UP is witnessing the slower recovery because they are now shifting from Co 0238 to newer varieties. So safe to assume that we are nowhere near C0 0238 neither in terms of sugarcane yield or recovery?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#44

No, no, no. I think this is not the right way to look at it. In my opinion, it's a sort of a temporary phase when there is a shift happening. As you know or maybe you don't know, but acclimatization of any new variety in any new place takes a little bit of longer time. There is no single variety released by the Sugarcane Institute until and unless it is not performing in terms of yield and recovery as much as 238. That is the new benchmark. So in terms of potential, they all can be -- they all can have that thing. But if I remind you even for Balrampur, it took us about 5 to 6 years to get everything from 238, which we started to get. I think it was back in 2019 or something like that. So the thing is that it takes some time. The sad part about sugarcane is that it's a 1-year crop, right? So everything takes longer to come to fruition. But this is not the right thought process at all. The future looks very good because the research and the varieties which are coming out actually have very good potential, and that too for more varied circumstances as well.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#45

So if I may just add to that. If you see 2 of our plants in Kheri district, they almost had last year's recovery. So we suffered not because of variety, we suffered because of severe rains in October.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#46

And also agro climatic conditions. Sometimes it rains too much, like I think we mentioned this in the past, is that how it rains and when it rains. So last 2 years, in fact, which I would like to give a good news right now is that until June, from October until June, we did not see a drop of rain last time. This year, already in May, it has rained. April, May combined, it has rained 3 times.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#47

Avantika. [indiscernible]. It looks better than last year's crop condition. If it does not flood in September, October, we should see much better recovery.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#48

So it's more agro climatic. Otherwise, the full state cannot just go down like this.

Operator

operator
#49

We'll take our next question from the line of Nitin Awasthi from InCred.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#50

Would just like to know a few things on the PLA front. We have given, of course, an explanation on the EBITDA that we are looking at. We're looking at -- we have also given an estimated time line and an estimated top line. Could you give us how much is the estimated cane, which will be required for this capacity to run, which is an optimal capacity of 75,000 tonnes per annum?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#51

So actually, it's not sugarcane, which is the main feedstock, it's sugar. So...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#52

It will get linked to that.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#53

It will get linked to, but it depends on recovery and how can I say sugarcane, right? So sugar is basically, we have said around 1.7x of 80,000 tonnes, which is about 1.2...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#54

1.25 lakh tonnes.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#55

1.25 lakh tonnes.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#56

Sugar gets diverted, which is approximately -- Pramod if you go on a gross basis, about...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#57

This year, we diverted 2 lakh tonnes of sugar.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#58

Okay. So you can -- I think I like what Pramod has said. If this year, we diverted 2 lakh tonnes of sugar and assume we were doing this PLA business this year, we would have diverted 3.25 lakh tonnes. Extra diversion of 1.25 lakh tonnes of sugar.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#59

Yes. So you can look at it as how much less sugar circulation rather than sugarcane. That's the easier way to look at it.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#60

Understood. Because, of course, then you will also have the molasses, which can be used for the ethanol plant. Okay. Got it. The next thing I wanted to ask is, I think this time around before the season starts, we are seeing the lowest spreads between FRP and SAP. Has that caused any agitation in the state? Or is it under new normal that the spreads are going to reduce in the future?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#61

So from where is the word agitation coming, I've not heard of it.

Nitin Awasthi

analyst
#62

No. So basically, the FRP -- the gap between FRP and SAP used to be quite substantial compared to what it is given the new FRP announcement, which has happened.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#63

So you can't plot trends like this. But our honorable Chief Minister is an extremely practical person, but one does not believe SAP to remain constant. So you cannot have a mathematical relationship if that's what you're looking at. But yes, sugarcane price in UP is declared with a far more practical mindset than our honorable CM.

Operator

operator
#64

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from the line of [ Duaneet Savla from Savla Family Office ].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#65

Sir, my question is -- I have two questions. First is since the FRP revision and since sir had explained wonderfully on the difference between the maize and -- the ethanol coming from maize and from sugar, so is my assumption fair that the upward revision should be somewhere in the range of what the current price on maize-based ethanol is? Or are we looking at something higher? And my second question is with regards to what are the precautions which we are taking that since red rot has affected entire Eastern UP as far as I know. So what kind of precautions are you taking that this kind of thing should have lesser impact going ahead?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#66

So 2 parts -- 2 questions. One is FRP linkage will have nothing to do with maize price. That is just the ability to raise ethanol price looking at 2 sources of ethanol was my communication. East UP has a minimum red rot in the state, minimum. And for us -- Avantika how much [indiscernible]

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#67

Only 6%.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#68

6%. So that's the peak of red rot.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#69

Which we can easily monitor and almost baby. So we don't -- red rot is the thing of the past for us.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#70

Past for us for Balrampur.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#71

Okay. Okay. So my question on the FRP was not based on the FRP, was like the price revision, which if we are looking at anything, it should be above what the maize-based ethanol is, right?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#72

So that is what logic demands. You are totally correct. That is what logic demands. What will happen is -- sorry..[Foreign Language]

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#73

No, no. Continue sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#74

Yes. So that is what logic demands. That is what past precedent demands. I'm not sure it's going to go up that fast that soon. But yes, at least to the extent of FRP raise this year, one is definitely hopeful.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#75

So somewhere in the range of 10%.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#76

I'm not fixing, it's too early. But yes, positively inclined towards the raise to FRP levels -- to FRP percentage increase levels.

Operator

operator
#77

We'll take our next question from the line of Disha from [indiscernible] Capital Fund.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#78

Sir, my question is what is the reason for lower ethanol for current season, sales volume, lower sales volume for ethanol?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#79

Sorry, come again, please.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#80

Yes. So what is the reason for lower sales volume in ethanol during this FY '25. Yes, sir.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#81

I'm sure you are aware of the fact that last year, there was a restriction on production of ethanol out of juice and B-heavy as a result of which our capacities were underutilized in FY '25. Ethanol year runs November to October. Initial part of the year, we were able to run our distillery on juice and [ wheat ]. Thereafter, it was restricted.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#82

Okay. And sir, what are the [indiscernible] to decide to run the ethanol on C-heavy basis? What is the margin -- if you can just advise on margin percentage on maize or how do we decide?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#83

Yes, these are...

Pramod Patwari

executive
#84

They are clearly stated in our presentation in a ready to take manner. And every year's planning depends upon availability of sugarcane, what is prevailing sugar price, what is the potential export price, what is the potential ethanol price.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#85

Okay. Okay, sir. Sir, what is the quantum of cane crush we are planning for FY '26?

Pramod Patwari

executive
#86

Sorry?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#87

What is the quantum of cane crush we are planning for next year, next season?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#88

So we don't plan for cane crush. It's on availability of cane, too early. I did indicate that there might be a marginal uptick beyond which there is no guess one can make today.

Operator

operator
#89

We'll take our next question from the line of Krishan Parwani from JM Financial.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#90

Just on the PLA front because I think that's where our intention is to go in the future. So given you have given an estimated top line of INR 2,000-odd crores, I believe the realization comes out to about $2.5 to $3 a kg. So just wanted to understand if you expect the PLA prices to sustain at this current levels?

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#91

Avantika?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#92

So that's a good question actually. It's hard to sort of predict 1.5 years out what the prices will be. But $2.5 -- actually comes to $2.5 only on capacity. But this is, of course, going to depend on the market forces and where we land. And historically, it's even gone to $4. So what is to say it can't go to $4. So the point is that it comes to -- $2.5 is not a bad assumption in my opinion, but that is what [ 80,000 x 250 is 2,000 ]. So that is what we try to predict. But having said that, it's not completely in my control.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#93

But yes, Krishan, one is working through various ideas. The government of UP has given a brilliant bioplastic policy. With the center, our agenda is to get the correct mandate in place that would drive demand. And therefore, the price at these levels is not unreasonable to estimate.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#94

Yes, yes, fair point. I think prices in China until about December '23 were in the range of $3 to $4. So $2.5 seems like a more realistic assumption, which is fair. Secondly, just continuing on that bit because I think you mentioned there's also government support, we know that already. So just wanted to understand the kind of geographical volume split that you expect of your overall volume, so let's say, of 80,000 tonnes, how much do you expect domestically and the exports?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#95

So the goal is, of course, all domestic because if we are trying to go green, it hardly makes sense to sort of export it directly. Having said that, the export market does have a demand, but we would not probably like to export directly without one step of at least value addition of a compounding or a converting done within the country. So while it might ultimately land up in a different country, we would like to probably sell domestically because anyways, a lot of compounding and converting for the world does happen in India. In fact, I think India is one of the largest film producers in the world with plastic PP and PET and things like that.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#96

Okay. So yes, I think probably NatureWorks tried with the BOPET and BOPP in the beginning of 2000. So -- and then it requires lower modification. So probably you are hinting towards that. Okay. Got it.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#97

I mean that's one of the applications that we are definitely working on. We're working on at least 10. So this is just one of those.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#98

Yes, yes. Got it. I mean, yes, it could be disposable tableware or extruded blisters, et cetera.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#99

Yes, even bottles, even bottle caps.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#100

Even textiles, even fibers, even -- I mean there's no end, honestly.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#101

Yes, yes , I'm aware. And if I may...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#102

Yes, please continue.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#103

Sir, just a continuation, a follow-up, if I may. So this -- would our PLA require U.S. FDA certification for food-grade products? Or how are we looking at it?

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#104

No, no, no. It's not required for food grade. Food grade certification is required for food grade like FSSAI and things like that in our country. Post that, U.S. FDA might be required for the compounder or the converter who is then finally making the product. For us, the food grade -- for us, in fact, the compostability and FSSAI approvals are already well underway. So it doesn't affect us directly those things. I also wanted to put in an interesting metric since you're talking about PLA and its applications. So India's consumption of straws alone is 100,000 tonnes of resin. And PLA straws have been approved by BIS and this is a very big sort of win, I would say, as of last month or so, I think, and it should be gazetted soon. And this is sort of -- I just want to show that our volume is only 80,000 tonnes. India one single application also if we capitalize on, the market is 100,000 tonnes large. So I'm not too stressed on where the PLA will go per se.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#105

No, fair point. I'm equally...

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#106

And one more thing, Krish, is we are targeting applications where the impact on the final price of the product will not hurt. So let's say, it's a bottle for a cap -- sorry, a cap for a bottle, that's going to go into sort of negligible territory. It's not going to hurt. So we are targeting those applications where the consumer will not feel anything, plus there would be that compostable bioplastic in play.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#107

Got it. Got it, sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#108

I also -- sorry, complete yourself.

Krishanchandra Parwani

analyst
#109

No, no, please, sir. Go ahead.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#110

So we also remind everyone that the first policy of Gujarat allowed solar to be sold at INR 15 per unit because these and capital cost was INR 12 crores, PLF 18%, 20%. We set it up, so I know it. Thereafter, technology evolved, cost of production with scale came down and things came back to even keel. And today, we know the price of solar. So we are not looking to remain just dependent on support all the time. The initial support for evolving the technology size, et cetera, we hope to run on our own with no crutches. Yes. And we appreciate your insight into the whole PLA business.

Operator

operator
#111

We'll take our next question from the line of Shailesh Kanani from Centrum Broking.

Shailesh Kanani

analyst
#112

Just a couple of data keeping. In general, what are we seeing in terms of ethanol volumes for the FY '26? And second, Avantika ma'am said that our dependence on 0238 is 6%. I believe that was somewhere in the range of 25-odd percent. So it is substantially down. So I have heard it right.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#113

Avantika, he's asking...

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#114

Last year, we crushed about 12%. This year, we will crush half of that. The recoveries on the 238, so we do mid-season analysis on a sort of weekly basis on varietal performance. So 238 recovery was not great is the point. And even the healthy 238 recovery was not as good as it used to be. It was okay, but others are also performing that well. So I think the 238 question for Balrampur as a company should not be asked.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#115

So we are rather insulated on 238, and we look forward to a good cane crushing era in years to come, weather not playing truant.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#116

And on the ethanol volume front, it will depend upon what kind of price increase we see for juice.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#117

Yes, you'll see our mathematics.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#118

Then only we can say.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#119

So assume you have good sugar price and you have good export price, we have, as a company, enabled all flexibility in all our units by making investment. So Maizapur can also run at maybe B-heavy, no problem. C-heavy, no problem. So we have that fungibility created. Our decision to the best economic sort of advantage, we will come to, which gives us maximum benefit.

Operator

operator
#120

[Operator Instructions] As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#121

Thank you very much, and we hope we've answered your questions. Always ready to answer more. Thank you.

Pramod Patwari

executive
#122

Thank you.

Avantika Saraogi

executive
#123

Thank you, everyone.

Operator

operator
#124

Thank you, members of the management team.

Vivek Saraogi

executive
#125

Thank you, everyone. Thank you, investors.

Operator

operator
#126

Thank you, sir. On behalf of Balrampur Chini Mills, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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