Banco BPM S.p.A. (BAMI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good evening. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Banco BPM Group First Half 2026 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Riscassi, Head of Investor Relations of Banco BPM. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon. Thanks for attending the conference call of our H1 2026 results, which will be presented by our CEO, Mr. Giuseppe Castagna; and our Joint General Manager and CFO, Edoardo Ginevra. All the materials presentation and the press release are available on our website under the Investor Relations section. [Operator Instructions] And now let me hand over to Mr. Castagna. Thank you.

Good evening, everybody. Happy to be here to present a very strong set of results of our first half of 2026, which allow us, first of all, to boost shareholder returns and to announce a new commitment of remuneration going up from EUR 6 billion to EUR 7 billion over the plan horizon up to '27. We will go further into detail immediately. Let's say that the performance of this first year, and in particular, Q2 was really fantastic. We have regular profitability in terms of net income with the highest level of net profit at EUR 1.06 billion, improving revenue mix, cost income and cost of risk, record asset quality going below 2% for the first time ever in terms of gross NPE ratio and record capital generation, which allow us to have a common equity Tier 1 ratio at 14.40%, 140 basis points versus planned minimum threshold and 240 bps in the last 18 months since year-end 2024. These results allow us to confirm and to increase the net income guidance from 26 million above EUR 1.95 billion for a total expected of EPS equal or higher to EUR 1. Let me remind that with these results, which is, of course, in line with the planned target. But this year, we will overcome practically of EUR 100 million the results of the original plan because of the external headwinds that you may remember come from the fiscal low and the Banca Projecto deal, which amounted for EUR 100 million. And we're not taken, of course, in consideration when we did the original plan. Let me say that we will also raise the interim dividend guidance to EUR 750 million, which means EUR 0.50 of dividend per share, up from $0.46 last year, meaning EUR 700 million of distribution. And this give also us room to enhance remuneration of our shareholders through a mix of buyback and initial dividends, which will be announced officially after we will have the ECB approval. Let me say that through this combination, we will have a cumulative remuneration target, which, I would say, go back to EUR 7 billion in the plan horizon EUR 6 billion, which is back to the plan maximum level before the annuam transaction. You may remember that we announced the first time in February '25, the possibility to distribute EUR 7 billion if aim would be -- they would be low honey, I wouldn't be a deduct from our capital, you know very well that then we did obtain the Danish Compromise, and we were obliged to reduce dividend distribution to EUR 6 billion Nowadays, we can be able again to raise this target to EUR 7 billion, which from now on will be the target that we have for the conti 4 years, which means EUR 4 billion in the next 2 years '26 and '27. This is thanks on Page 7 to a very sustainable and constant long-term value creation we have, again, on first half net income record, and we wanted to show you the progression of these results through the difficult years of the restructuring after the merger of the bank, the consolidation after the pandemia and the starting of the new transformational strategy started in 2023 with the taking on board the new product factories in '23 related to bancassurance, in '24 the Numedia for payment system, and in '25 intentive the acquisition environment. Since then, we have been increasing our net profit from EUR 650 million in '23, EUR 770 million in '24. Let me remember in '24, we had EUR 1.4 million Euribor higher than the current one. Notwithstanding that, now we have reached EUR 1.077 million, EUR 1.060 million stated, which means a strong increase through the non-NII interest. We will come back soon also with some more detail, which means a net income adjusted CAGR of 18% since 2023. And again, the capability [indiscernible] more than 100 basis points of reduction of Euribor with always stronger net profit results. Let on Page 8 to talk and to show you how our total revenues changed during the last 2 years. In the '24, we had non-NII revenues for EUR 1.07 billion, which represented 38% of the total revenues in 261st half, we are having almost EUR 600 million of non-NII revenues on our total revenues, which represent 52% of the total revenues with an increase of 55% on a 2 years' time. An important increase year-on-year comes from the product factory that '26 on '24 first half grew EUR 77 million, which is 10% higher than the last year's result. Of course, this revenue increase was coupled with a very strong cost control, both in terms of cost income, we went down from 48% to 43% in first half '26 and a cost of risk, which went down from 38 basis points in '24 to 31 basis points this year. Talking of NPE, let me remind that we were able, since the merger, to reduce the gross NPE ratio from 24% to below 2%. We are now 1.6%, which net is 1.3%. Let me remember without any share issue during this 10-year period. Excluding the NPE with state guarantee, we have now a net NPE ratio of 0.53% and the net bad loan ratio at 0.1%. Very good performance also in the fault rate, which is down to 0.73%, down from $0.84 last year. And we were also able to reduce the share of Stage 2, which now represents 7.4% of the total performing loans versus 8.1% last year. But the strongest impact comes from the capability of the bank through profitability and management action to build up a strong capital position. We now reached 14.4%, which means 240 basis points higher than in the last 18 months. We position also the reduction we had to absorb in 2025 through the acquisition of Numia without Danish Compromise. This accounted for 240 basis points, which, coupled with regulatory headwinds, added to 300 basis points of deduction that we had to rebuild during these 18 months. As a matter of fact, being at that level, we now think there is room to enhance shareholder remuneration through allocation of buyback or dividends to be determined exactly following ECB approval and of course, shareholder meeting approval. We will be able to maintain our target level of common equity Tier 1 above 13% threshold, thanks to the, again, the internal capital generation. The DTA reduction still to come in the next 2 years and the managerial action, which were always able to manage in order to build up more capital. On Page 12, let's have a look to the Q2 results. We have an increase in net interest income Q-on-Q of 4.6%, an increase -- slight increase in net fee and commission and an increase of 3% of core revenues. If we go after net financial results and other net operating items, the total revenues grew 9% Q-on-Q and 7.7% year-over-year. Operating costs were down year-on-year 1.2%, up on the last quarter 2.9%, bringing in pre-provision income at 13.8% and 15% higher Q-on-Q, respectively and year-on-year. We had also very good results in terms of loan loss provision, which amounted to EUR 76 million, with a decrease year-on-year of 14%, which contribute to have a pretax profit 18% higher year-on-year and 15% higher on last quarter. And going down, of course, we will see also net income adjusted 13% higher year-on-year and 23% higher Q-on-Q. The evolution of the Q2 results are shown in the right side of the page, where you can see the last 2 -- second Q quarter in '24 and '25, you can see how strategy implemented all the main figure in order to get the final results. Total revenues grew 22% in 2 years, cost to income down from 49% of [ 224 ] to 42% in Q2 '26, which is our best-ever results. We already talking about loan loss provision and the pretax profit grew 52% from EUR 600 million to EUR 900 million. Let's go through some detail of the profit and loss, net interest income back to increasing Q-on-Q, 4.6%, with, of course, Euribor, which is growing Q-on-Q of 15 basis points and the contribution is coming both mainly from commercial banking activity, but also from the [indiscernible] portfolio. We were able to manage the increase of Euribor very well, especially in liability spread, which grew more than Euribor average, which brought our liability spread from 1.44 to 1.60, reducing only 2 basis points the asset spread. The total commercial spread grew from 2.89 to 3.03. No main news about the sensitivity, more or less, it's the same last quarter. We are still with a small increase of replicating portfolio vis-a-vis the target of EUR 25 billion that will be reduced in the second part of the year. Meanwhile, we started to reduce from 37% to 35% the index current account in view of the increasing [indiscernible] environment. Another very good news comes from lending volumes. We are continuing commitment to support our clients even though preserving our loan book quality. As I mentioned before, the new lending in the first part of the year is EUR 13.8 billion, of which EUR 7.6 billion in Q2, which is 22% higher than Q1. The loan book is growing 1.8%, which is exactly in line, even higher than the total growth for '26, and this growth is coming, especially year-to-date from the nonfinancial corporates, which grew almost 3%. The quality of the portfolio is secured by the location of our clients, 72% are located in north of Italy, and by the collateral and guarantee which support our stock, 47% is secured basically up and after through state guarantees and collateral and the collateralized loans, this 47% grow to 61% if we talk about SMEs. On the right side of the page, you can see the record level of EUR 7.6 billion, which is the best loan -- new loan growth that we are experiencing. But I have to say that July was even better. In only 1 month, we were able to grant EUR 3.3 billion. Good news comes also from the profitability coming from the new loans, which grew from 1.42% of the new loans granted in Q2 '25 to 1.57% linked to the new loans granted this first part of the year. Net fees and income from insurance also in this case, we are at a lag level of EUR 1.5 million, the 3.2% higher than last year, which 51% are represented by product fees from investment sales. On the right side of the slide, you can see that the investment product fees grew 70.5% versus first half '25 and almost 15% vis-a-vis Q2 '25. This growth comes from the very strong and solid results from Anima, which grew 15%. And also, I would say, this is quite new for us, a very good performance in terms of running fee, which grew 5% vis-a-vis first half of '25. Also in terms of investment product placement, we were able to overcome the very strong results of H1 '25, reaching EUR 12.2 billion of sales, notwithstanding there was an increase also in the placement of BTP, which is, of course, considered apart from the EUR 12.2 billion of products -- of asset management products. Also for the other fees, meanwhile, we have a reduction of 1.8% year-on-year due to the reduction of the Ecobonus, which, of course, here is much lower than last year. But if we compare Q2 '26 to Q2 '25, we have a growth of 3.8%, coming particularly from the increase that we have from the product factories, 5%, and the strong recovery of the specialized activity, which mainly are represented by structural finance fees and trade finance fees [indiscernible] respectively 34% versus Q1 '26 and 20% versus Q2 '25. So all results are growing and leave us room for better results in the second part of the year. Let's talk about the other side of the balance sheet, the total customer and financial asset, we grew EUR 7.6 billion in Q2 versus Q1, EUR 4 billion year-to-date, which EUR 1.1 billion in current account and the rest in indirect funding for which we registered a positive net flows of almost EUR 2 billion. Meanwhile, the rest, of course, is a market effect. These results are better also by the [indiscernible] performance, as we mentioned before. [indiscernible] contribution to total revenues of the group is 18% higher than the pro forma of '25. You remember that we brought on more than only in Q2, but we have a pro forma as it was here in the Q1 '25, and 27% of net income at EUR 145 million higher than the first part of '25. Total group customer and financial assets, adding on power, own and [indiscernible], excluding, of course, billion in Anima, which are coming from BPM is much -- is very close to EUR 400 billion of total financial assets. But let me pay some attention to Slide 17. This is the real change that we did during the last couple of years. As you may remember, we build up the strong reactivity in product factory starting from '23, starting having results basically from the first half of '24. In the first half '24, we reached EUR 456 million of the contribution from product factories. This amount is now after 2 years EUR 822 million, completely targeting and overcoming the target '26, which the average of year was EUR 800 million and very close to the target that we have for '27, which is EUR 860 million. The share of total revenues of the product factory grew from 16% of '24 to 26% of this first part of the year. But on the right side of the slide, you can see how we are sort of Unicom in the -- amongst our competitors. We have only 1 competitor, which has a share of net fees and insurance very close to our 47%. The other peers are very much with a figure which are very much smaller than ours from 42% to 32% of contribution net fees. And you know how much is important to have a solid contribution from fees independent from the volatility of interest rate. Coming to the cost side. Again, cost/income 43% in 6 months and 42% in Q2 is 1.6% lower of first half '25, thanks to the staff cost reduction of 4% year-on-year, which take benefit from the solidarity fund saving of last year, which reduced the cost of personnel of EUR 49 million, only partially offset by EUR 10 million of new labor contract cost. We can envisage that the second part of the year will not that different from the first part of the year. In terms of [indiscernible], we have an increase of 2.9% because we have accounted some extraordinary cost in the first part of the year. We envisage a better second part of the year in order to reduce the increase year-on-year. We already spent some awards, but it's worth to mention the very strong results in terms of credit management. Cost of risk down to 31 basis points. NPE ratio below 2%. NPE coverage up to 48%. And if we exclude the NPEs with a state guarantee, we have a coverage, which is almost 60% as a total coverage more than 81% in terms of bad loans coverage. Let me hand the word to Mr. Ginevra, which will continue on the financials.

So also the contribution of our financial business to the results has been very excellent -- has been really excellent in this half year. So on the side of this slide, you see that the reserves, the contribution to capital of reserves has improved, and we have negative reserves of EUR [ 256 ] million million, down from negative reserves of almost EUR 300 million at the beginning of the year. These with risk reduction in the risk of the government bond portfolio, whose basis point value went down from EUR 2.4 million to EUR 2.5 million in the first half of the year. The derisking is interested also Italian government bonds down from 0.83 to [indiscernible]. Debt securities are at EUR 47.6 billion, 29% is [indiscernible] income, 71% is amortized cost, so with very limited exposures in terms of capital to market fluctuations. Italian government's share on the total of the banking book is [indiscernible] supernational [indiscernible] is 38.4%. Improvement has been reported also in the yield of this portfolio, which is now above the level 255 basis points in the first half of the year. On the right side, net financial result as shown in the previous slide, improved 62.3% in first half of the year, both thanks the contribution of cost of certificates, which went down from EUR 92 million to EUR 58 million million, thanks mostly to the declining rate scenario, Euribor. But on top of it, to improve, we had an improvement or on spread. The other NFR components improved their contribution from EUR 182 million to EUR 202 million half of this contribution is -- after all this element is represented by dividend on NPS is flat versus last year, the improvement in general is driven by the contribution of global market activities and by the dynamic management of market positions. Liquidity and funding has improved both in terms of cash and encumbered assets, which is now at EUR 53.5 billion back to the level of December basically. And in terms of tariff funding, which went up from EUR EUR 133 million to EUR 144 million -- EUR 133.7 million to EUR 144.1 million in the quarter, mostly driven by increase in the items of repo financing. SCR is at 143% and SFR is 123% with high-quality liquid assets at a very comparable level of EUR 31.3 billion. Capital, the data, the position in June has been already stated in the first part of the presentation. The work that leads us at this level is illustrated on Page 22, where we started from -- where you see how we started around EUR 13.59 million. Contribution from performance is [indiscernible] outperform is 98 basis points. Dividends reduced level of capital by 83 -- of CET1 ratio by 83 basis points bearing in mind that here, we have a level of dividend implied in this calculation of EUR 840 million, so higher than the one that we have said this level of interim dividend, which creates additional comfort on our capital position. [indiscernible] comprehensive income and ETAs improved the capital position, improved CET1 ratio, respectively, over 60 and 30 basis points. The growth in our business, business dynamics has implied a reduction of 24.2 basis points. [indiscernible] at EUR 68.8 billion. MDA buffer is a very comparable level of 187 basis points, MRL, including the Tier 2 issued in July is at the bakeries at 468 percentage points. As usual, we have also highlighted the future contribution to capital coming from a progressive reduction in deduction from [indiscernible], in per comprehensive income debt reserves. This contribution is as high in the future as 150 basis points, of which 70 basis points are expected to mature in the plan Horizon in the next 18 months. And now I hand over again to Giuseppe for the conclusion for the final remarks.

Thank you, Edoardo. Please go to Slide 24. The brief sum up of the results we announced. So we have a very strong set of profits from continuing operation, growing 32% in the last 2 years. And the results of this half of the year is already above the half yearly average of 2027, which is our planned target of the 4 year target we presented. Also in terms of net income, we are growing massively and constantly because if you adjust '24, '25, '26, we will see that there is a growth of almost 10%, again, also in '26 because we have to remember that the guidance of 1.95 is considering EUR 100 million less of more cost, which represent without them would have represented a growth of almost 10% vis-a-vis 2025, giving us a good pace to reach also our target in 2027. The very good news is on the left down side of the page, which we have basically reached the composition of the net income that we envisage in the presentation of the strategic plan. You may remember, we started with wealth management protection 24% of net income, specialty Banking 11% and 65% coming from commercial banking. Nowadays, we have 35% of wealth asset management protection, which is already in line with the target of '27. 9% versus 10% of Specialty Banking and 56% -- 50% to 55% of commercial banking. And [indiscernible] is going up from 16% on '24 to 20.3% of this first half of the year and more than 21% next year. All these set of results enable us to upgrade the guidance, but more important to boost the remuneration higher the combination of main drivers like higher revenues, improved efficiency and lower cost of risk give us the confidence to overcome the EUR 1.95 billion of results, which is ahead of the strategic plan, notwithstanding the EUR 100 million, give us the opportunity to upgrade the dividend guidance to equal or higher EUR 1 per share, starting from the interim EPS, which grew from $0.46 to $0.50, meaning a total interim dividend coming up from EUR 700 million to EUR 750 million. But more important, we have been authorized from our board to start all the regulatory procedure to increase the distribution target through further remuneration of share buyback, which will bring from EUR 6 million to EUR 7 billion the total remuneration of the plan. Again, this would mean to distribute EUR 4 billion in '26 and '27, after '27 results. Frankly speaking, we are very happy to show this figure because, again, once we had the disappointment about [indiscernible] deduction from capital, we were obliged to reduce from EUR 7 billion to EUR 6 million. But we always say that if we would have had the opportunity to build up more capital, we would have returned to the EUR 7 billion target, and this is the case that we are very happy to announce to you. Thank you very much. I leave the floor for your Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli from Deutsche Bank.

I have 2 questions, actually 2 clarifications. The first one is on the evolution of the lending portfolio. The new business origination was extremely strong in the quarter, reaching the highest level since many quarters now. Still, I do see the stock of loans at the end of the period up only 1%, if I look at the end of the period data. So I was wondering whether there are other components like maturities, like financial components, which penalize the end of the period data? Or for example, if there are, I don't know, some state guaranteed loans, which came due in this quarter and in 2026, which penalized the trend of the stock? The second question is on the fee income and especially in the trend of the first half. We've seen a strong acceleration, a very good performance. If I not mistaken, there was also a relatively strong contribution from the performance fees of [indiscernible] in the first half. If you can please elaborate about the trend that you would expect in the second half -- for the second half of the year in terms of evolution of the fee income?

Sure, Giovanni. Let me say that as far as lending, of course, as you know, June and December, we have the vast majority of maturity of loans with the different installments, which are concentrated in these 2 maturities. So for instance, in June, we had already accounted, of course, in the number I gave to you EUR 2.2 billion of maturity. Meanwhile, in March were EUR 1.5 billion. So there is always something more, which, of course, depresses a bit the second quarter and the fourth quarter results in terms of loans. But again, with 1.8% year-to-date, we are very happy because we have this target for the whole year. The pace of the loans is growing. I mentioned EUR 3.3 billion in July. So most possibly, we can envisage better results also for '27. Don't forget that there is a balanced combination in which we have to grow, but we have to maintain a very good credit quality. And at the same time, we have to try to increase the spread. And as I mentioned, year-on-year, we increased the spread of the new issuing 15 basis point. So all in all, it's a part of our results, which we, frankly speaking, like very much after some year of very slow growth in loans, if not a reduction. In commission, we have, of course, a strong ambition in our plan. Let's say that we think we will be much better than last year this year. And we have a further growth of more or less EUR 100 million for next year. So I don't think there is room for upgrading because we already have very strong results, basically EUR 78 million better this year for last year and another EUR 100 million for next year, which will come again from the setup and full power of the product factory and a good pace we are having in the financial product sales.

Next question is from Elan Aerie in Elena Perini, Intesa Sanpaolo .

I got 2 questions. The first 1 is on your credit quality because it was 1 of the best surprises in my view in this set of results. So I was wondering about your guidance for the cost of risk for this year, and if possible, for next year too? There are some changes considering the positive evolution that you are experiencing. The second question is, again, a follow-up on commissions because I see also from the results of your peers that there is a contribution of placement fees in this first half. So what is the outlook for this component, which cannot be considered as much as recurrent for the second half of the year?

Okay. I'll start with the first question then, please, can you repeat exactly what you need to understand better on the commission side. But for cost of risk, of course, we are doing better than the business plan. Of course, the business spend was done with a sort of, let's say, a prudent approach in terms of default rate, which now is being constantly below 1% for the last 4, 5 years. And every time, I think all of us think that there could be a deterioration. But maybe you have too much prudent also in that because the capability, which we now spend in managing, granting the loan, monitoring the watch list, detecting early warning allow us to be very efficient in timing and capability to sell and dispose and starting to reduce exposure where we feel to be at risk. So all in all, I can say that for sure, we will do better than the business plan guidance, which were, if I remember well, 43 basis points for '26 and 40 basis points for 27. Also because, as you remember, having now a stock which is so low and almost very much guaranteed from the state guarantee is very [indiscernible] to envisage cost of maintenance and the only cost will come from the full rate increase. Can you repeat on commission, sorry?

Yes. Sure. My question was referring to the Slide #15, in the sense that you have investment product placements. So they were basically stable in the first half of '25 and different half of '26 too. So I was wondering about the outlook for the second half of the year for this small component. And also, if I may add, if you consider a significant amount of upfront fees also for the second half of the year?

No, not really. I mentioned before that you are very happy to show that we are basically having a first half of the year with upfront fees, which are in line with last year and coming exactly from the same investment product placement amount, which is around EUR 12 billion. Meanwhile, we have an increase of 5% year-on-year of running fee, which, for us, is very important. In terms of second half, again, we expect a bettering year-on-year '26 and '25. Investment fees account now for more than 50%, so for sure, we will have a good result. But let's remember that it's impossible to double for 2 because, of course, in the second half, there is August and December, which are always slower than the rest part -- the other part of the year. So this, of course, is for investment products. Meanwhile, we think we can be very good, as I mentioned before, in recovering from the other commission, as we did Q1 in many of these items that I mentioned before.

Next question is from Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

I have 2 questions. I mean the first one is in terms of capital distribution. I mean, could you help us to understand a bit if there could be other measures besides capital distribution in order to improve the operating profitability such as additional [indiscernible] programs or any other efficiency vessels? And linked to that, you have improved the cost-to-income by around 3.5, 4 percentage points in the last 12 months, which is a remarkable performance. How much do you think you can continue improving the cost to income in the coming quarters?

Ignacio, thanks for the questions. Capital distribution. So if I understood correctly, the question is about whether -- if we can continue to implement actions, managerial actions to improve capital position and generate additional efficiency in capital absorption. Basically, we are very active, as you know from also previous presentations in the area of synthetic securitizations. On top, we are deploying a number of levers to help generating additional capital, not only from P&L, but also from other sources, i.e., underlying again the 70 basis points that we have out of a total of $150 million of additional capital to be generated, and over the planned horizon from DTAs and fair value other comprehensive income reserves, we are in a position to be very confident we can tackle further opportunities to generate additional excess capital, which already is, I would say, quite significant when you compare the 14.4% we have to the 13%, which is, I would say, very conservative threshold and with almost EUR 69 billion of RWA. Just these numbers is very close to EUR 1 billion, if you make the maths.

On cost to income, if it's right for you, the...

Yes. I was also thinking whether you could, I mean, use the excess capital and the very strong capital position for other things that could improve further managerial and the cost-to-income by other retirements if there is -- if you see a space on the cost side, I can give the second question?

No, I think that we are very focused on distributing excess capital and using efficiently for managing expectation all of our shareholders. At the same time, we are extremely confident that the process of [indiscernible] excess capital is still ongoing and may continue to give us additional flexibilities going forward until at least the completion of the plan. So if we have in front of us opportunities to deploy capital differently or to use it for restructuring, we are confident we can have it. But for the time being, we're not planning additional usage for this excess category.

Okay. Coming back to cost income. Of course, it's very much better than our forest mainly due to staff cost reduction, as I mentioned before, but we have some further possibility to reduce the other administrative costs. So we are confident that we can beat the anticipation we have. And again, 43% is a record for us. It's better than the plan. But notwithstanding that, we did 42% in Q2. So I don't know, if we are able, as we did to maintain costs at the level they are as it looks like to be possible for this year, increasing revenues will give us a better cost to income.

The next question is from Luis Pratas, Autonomous Research.

My first one is on NII. There was this impressive increase in the liability spreads from 144 basis points to 160. And this actually means that liability costs essentially remained flat despite the higher deriver. So I wanted to ask you, how did you manage to keep these deposit costs flat, whether they were like any strategic actions? And going forward, how do you expect the liability spread to [indiscernible]? And maybe more generally, if you could also provide to update the NII guidance for 2026, please? And then my second question is related with M&A... There has been plenty of speculation about the potential combination between Credit Agricole Italy and Banco BPM I wanted to ask you whether you think this combination could result in value generation to Banco BPM shareholders? And how do you assess the government attitude towards the potential move by Credit Agricole take control of Banco BPM. Do you think it's a transaction that can be political acceptable?

Luis, thanks for your questions. On NII, a few observations. Yes, correct. We were effective in preserving liability spread. These -- and also on areas, as I suppose that spread is important to note at this point. There are also some second other effect in terms of delay in cost of index instruments to adjust to the behavior of rates. On top of that, needless to say, we have been very effective in how to say, steering the deposit base to take the maximum opportunities in of opportunities in an environment of declining rates. You can observe, for example, as reported in the presentation that we have now in the current account at this number was EUR 37 million, if I'm not mistaken, 6 months ago. And of course, the share of index on total is the most expensive in our deposit base. Guidance for the rest of the year is we prefer to be prudent. So even without factoring as far as increase in base rates from ECB, still, of course, we can have improvements versus the second quarter, both in the third and in the fourth. This improvement can be even more evident in case of rates -- in case of ECB raising rates in the next meetings -- for coming meetings.

Okay. Just answering for the second part related to M&A. Let me say, first of all, that all this regulation starts maybe from the fact that was emphasized a sort of declaration from clear recall that they we didn't see value on the transaction we should have done with Monte. Let's be clear that the decision of not going ahead in the potential opportunity represented by a merger between us and Monte Paschi was decided only by the Board of the bank. And the Board of the bank, of course, as you know, include 4 Board member appointed in list supported by Credit Agricole. And this was unanimous. So everybody decided for this decision. I explained in our press release that after months of waiting, we were not able to understand which kind of transaction, which kind of number, which kind of value for our shareholders, this transaction, which we consider a very important and profitable opportunity, unfortunately did not materialize. At that point, we decide, also because after our letter, as you know, materialize also the official offer from Intesa, we decided that for time frame limits. We were not anymore in the position to pursue in August or September, maybe a transaction, which would arrive before the Intesa Sanpaolo public offer. So I don't think any of the interpretation of [indiscernible] about our transaction with Monte true. But of course, you can ask them. As far as our declaration related to us that they would prefer to have a merger with us. This always been a possibility that since, I don't know, 2, 3, 4 years, since they became our shareholders was a potential opportunity on the table. We would examine this potential opportunity if becomes true and possible in the interest of all the shareholders of the bank. I have to say that from an industrial point of view, I think that is a very solid merger. But of course, we have to find a solution that makes happy all the other shareholders of BAMI if this transaction would, at a certain time, materialize. I don't know, frankly speaking, about the position of the government. There are rules and opportunity to respect I don't want to enter into such things that are not related to what I can try to decide.

Next question is from Andrea Lisi, Equita.

The first one is on the increase of shareholder remuneration where you have -- you come back with the additional EUR 1 million. You indicated that you have the choice between increasing the dividend payout and the share buyback. Can you provide some color about which will be the rationale for you in selecting between an increase in the dividend payout and the share buyback? And so under which situation you think could be preferable one case or the other? And the second question is on Anima. In particular, I want to ask you if you can provide any update on this front, in particular, considering that the stake listed is still at 10%? [indiscernible] 90$. Clearly, we have seen what happened with Monte. And if this could, in some way, change a bit your position regarding what to do with the minorities of Anima?

Okay. So basically, we announced the increase the borrowing popular [indiscernible] 6,7 in the distribution of the total plan Horizon. But at the same time, we need to abide to the rules from ECB that say that announcements of buybacks have to be precise, only can be precise, can be done in an amount only after an authorization is granted in case is the one we are talking about of buyback on top of ordinary payout distributed by the bank. So basically, where we stand now. We need to start the authorization process. Once we obtain the authorization, we will be able to disclose the amount. And in due course, we will communicate to the market.

Okay. For Anima, of course, let's start from the second part, which, of course, is a -- is very important also for the first part of your question. So what happened to MPS Anima? We have a contract lasting up to 2030. We are confident that Monte Baski stand-alone or Monte Baski in whatever situation will end up with respect the contract that they have with us. Let's remember that this is not a wholesale deal, but it's a B2B2C business, in which, of course, there are, I don't know, hundreds of thousands of clients in Monte who buys our product, Anima product. And I am sure that whoever will be deciding what to do, will have attention and care and not disappointing their client obliging or forcing them to change the investment product they are used since, I don't know, 15 years, 20 years to use. So we are very confident about that until 2030, and then we will discuss with whoever will be in charge at that time. For the 10%, of course, let us understand better were Monte Paschi will be at the end of this consolidation, the offer process. And of course, we will decide it consequently.