Banco de Sabadell, S.A. (SAB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Sabadell results presentation for the third quarter of 2026. Joining us today are our CEO, Marc Mangold; and our CFO, Sergioe Platino. The presentation will follow a similar structure as in previous quarters. Marc will start by highlighting the key developments of the quarter and discussing the most relevant topics. Then Sergioio will review financial results and the evolution of the balance sheet. Marc will conclude the presentation, and we will then open the line for questions. We appreciate that today is a particularly busy day with many banks reporting results. So with that in mind, we started earlier, and we will link to keep the call to around 1 hour. So Marc, over to you.

Thank you, Lluc, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying that today is a very sad day in Spain, following the train accident that happened yesterday, I just want to extend our deepest condolences to all those affected by this tragic train accident. Our thoughts are with the big teams, their families and all those impacted by the tragedy. Let me move on with the presentation. Let's start with the highlights from the quarter on Slide 4. Key message of the quarter, positive just keep widening driven both by growing revenues and contained costs. Commercial momentum remains healthy. Year-to-date, performing loans grew by 4.4%, while customer funds were up by 2.6%. And the positive evolution of commercial activity translates into revenue growth. Net interest income increased by 2% Q-on-Q and fees increased by almost 4%. The Costs remained broadly flattish in the quarter as the early retirement program, which was executed during the first half of the year has already started to generate savings. Asset quality remains favorable as well. The NPL ratio improved to 2.4% and cost of risk remained stable at 40 basis points. Finally, we continue delivering an attractive shareholder remuneration. In addition to the ongoing execution of our share buyback program, today, we are announcing a new interim cash dividend of EUR 0.07 per share to be distributed by year-end. Overall, our profitability keeps improving, and we remain fully on track to deliver our year-end return on tangible equity target of 14.5%. Moving to Slide 5. Two relevant strategic initiatives have been announced during the quarter. First, we have renewed our partnership with Amundi, extending it through 2035. Having Amundi as a partner has proven to be beneficial for our customers, as it improves our value proposition. So securing a longer term for the agreement is positive news. On top of that, we have improved the economics of the business by agreeing on a higher distribution fee for Sabadell during the rest of the contract. As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we have also increased our focus on execution. As we announced in late July, we have simplified our organizational structure to enhance execution and accountability across the group. one hand, we have increased our focus on transformation AI with the specific teams fully assigned to it. And on the other hand, the new organizational structure increases our focus on higher-value customer segments; affluent individuals, private banking, SME and corporates. All in all, we are accelerating our transformation and supporting our ambition to become the best relationship bank in Spain. Turning to the P&L on Slide 6. year-on-year trends keep improving. All the P&L lines performed well in the quarter. NII improved by 2% Q-on-Q. Fees increased by EUR 3.7 million, costs remained stable and provisions decreased by 13% in the quarter. As a result, net profit reached EUR 405 million, almost 13% above the recurrent second quarter figure. Recurrent return on tangible equity improved to 14.2%, while the reported figure reached 15.5%. These results reinforced our confidence in delivering the profitability targets we set for 2026 and for 2027. On Slide 7, we have commercial activity. household lending origination continued to evolve positively during the quarter despite the expected seasonality in Q3. Mortgage origination increased by 5% versus the second quarter while consumer loans originations grew by 13%. In SME and corporate banking Q-on-Q comparisons were affected by summer seasonality. Overall, these figures confirm that loan demand remains solid, and that our commercial franchise maintains positive momentum. And most importantly, these levels of new lending allow us to continue growing the performing loan book, as we can see on the following slide, Slide 8. We remain on track to deliver our year-end guidance of mid-single-digit growth. While Q-on-Q evolution is impacted by expected seasonality, year-on-year comparison is also affected this time by unusual dynamics in the second half of the previous year. Let me remind you that in 2025, we recorded an exceptionally strong third quarter followed by an unusually weak fourth quarter and this was largely driven by the circumstances surrounding the takeover bid. Therefore, we believe that the year-to-date trend in 2026 provides a more accurate view of the underlying business momentum. Overall, performing loans grew by 4.4% year-to-date, keeping us on track to deliver our mid-single-digit growth target for the year. Lending dynamics in Spain remain solid. Consumer lending increased by 9% year-to-date, while mortgages grew by 2.4%. Public sector also performed strongly with growth close to 7%. The SME and corporate portfolio grew by 3% year-to-date. On the right-hand side of the slide, international businesses grew by more than 10% year-to-date at constant FX, supported by solid momentum across Miami, Mexico and our foreign branch network. Moving now to customer funds on Slide 9. On balance sheet funds in Spain grew by close to 2% year-to-date Considering the usual positive seasonality in Q4, we are on track to achieve our full year growth guidance. Off-balance sheet funds also delivered solid growth, bringing total customer funds growth to 2.6% year-to-date and more than 5% year-on-year. Cost of deposits in Spain increased by 6 basis points during the quarter in a context where 3-month EURIBOR increased by 28 basis points Therefore, our deposit EBITDA decreased slightly and remains well content. In Slide 10, let's take a closer look at the dynamics of our customer spread. Loan yield reached growing by 8 basis points in the quarter. This improvement is being driven by the repricing of variable rate exposures as well as the rollover of short-term fixed rate loans at higher yields. We expect this trend to continue in the coming quarters. While loan yield increased by 8 basis points in the quarter, cost of deposits increased by 6 basis points in the quarter. Looking forward, loan yield is expected to keep increasing more than costs of deposits. As a result, we will continue to see further customer margin expansion. We expect customer margin to reach circa 290 basis points by year-end. Turning to shareholder remuneration Slide 11, following the extraordinary dividend associated with the sale of TSB and the ongoing execution of the share buyback program. Today, we are announcing a new interim cash dividend of $0.07 per share to be paid at the end of December. This reflects both our strong capital generation and our commitment to shareholder remuneration. Our remuneration commitment remains clear and predictable based on a 60% payout, along with the distribution of excess capital above our CET1 threshold of 13%. On Slide 12, let me share a few considerations on the entry of BPCE as a strategic shareholder. BPCE is one of the largest banking groups in Europe and has acquired a 7% stake in Banco Sabadell with a long-term investment perspective. And as a result, they will hold the seat on our Board of Directors. With CDPC as a stable shareholder that shares our strategic vision and confidence in the future of Sabadell. At the same time, it opens the door to potential cooperation opportunities in areas such as corporate and investment banking, equipment leasing, consumer finance and cross-border business. With that, I conclude my part of the presentation and hand it over to Sergioio.

Thank you, Marc, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the P&L on Slide 14. There were no extraordinary items affecting this quarter's results. Recurring net profit for the first 9 months of the year stands at EUR 1.1 billion, having earned a net profit of EUR 405 million in the third quarter. Recurring RoTE stood at 14.2% and keeping us on track to deliver our 14.5% full year target. Let me review the key P&L lines. Starting with NII, it continues the upward trajectory following the inflection point reached in the second quarter. On the top right-hand side of the page, you can observe the drivers that explain the quarterly evolution. First, customer NII improved by EUR 24 million, supported by higher average volumes and positive repricing. Then we had a positive EUR 3 million day count effect. Finally, noncustomer NII declined by EUR 9 million as higher wholesale funding costs more than offset the positive ALCO contribution. We can also see in this slide that both customer spread and net interest margin have started to grow this quarter with an increase of 2 basis points each. Moving on to Slide 16 and looking ahead to the fourth quarter. NII is expected to grow at mid-single-digit range versus the fourth quarter of 2025. We now expect the ECB deposit facility rate to reach 2.75% by year-end, which is 25 basis points above our previous assumption. Loan yields will benefit from the positive repricing of variable rate lending, while deposit costs are expected to increase faster than previously anticipated as the ECB is now expected to raise interest rate 25 basis points more during this year. Higher interest rate environment will be a net positive for Sabadell's NII at the end of the day, as more loans than deposits will be repriced. However, in the quarter following the rate hike, deposit costs adjust more rapidly because of the shorter duration. Then as time goes by, there are more loans than deposits being repriced. As a result, we can see that customer spread expansion has already started but is progressing more gradually than previously anticipated. Looking forward, we now expect customer spread to reach around 290 basis points by year-end and NII is expected to grow by around 1% in 2026 year-on-year, and this is marginally below our previous guidance. On the next slide, fees increased by 3.7% quarter-on-quarter supported mainly by asset management. The renewed Amundi agreement contributed around EUR 10 million in the quarter, while service fees and credit and contingent risk fees remained broadly stable despite the usual negative seasonality. Looking ahead, we expect fees to continue trending upwards supported by a strong commercial momentum. The renewed among the agreement increases the quarterly run rate of asset management fees by around EUR 5 million, while success fees in asset management and insurance will provide additional support in the next quarter. All in all, commissions are expected to grow by around 4% year-on-year. Turning to cost. Total recurring expenses remained well contained during the quarter. Year-on-year, Total recurring costs increased by 3.8%, impacted by higher amortization and depreciation costs due to the reclassification of the payment business in the fourth quarter of 2025. When adjusting for this reclassification, total recurring costs increased by 2.7%. In the quarter, staff costs were broadly stable and already benefited from the savings generated by the early retirement plan. Other general expenses also remained stable, reflecting our continued cost discipline. Looking forward, we expect recurring cost to increase in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the usual seasonality. On a year-on-year basis, the reclassification of the payment business will provide a more favorable comparison. As a result of the very than anticipated evolution, we are again improving our cost guidance for the year and now expect total recurring cost growth at circa 2%. Moving on to the next slide. We show why the widening of jaws remain the key driver of our profitability improvement. During the third quarter, net interest income increased by 2%, and fees by almost 4%, while recurring costs remained flattish. This translated into a further improvement in core banking results in line with our expectations. This combination of growing revenues and disciplined cost management should lead to a further widening of jaws through year-end and into 2027, supporting our profitability targets of RoTE of 14.5% and 16%, respectively. On the next slide, cost of risk remains stable at 40 basis points, while fully in line with our year-end target. Looking specifically at loan loss provision, the credit cost of risk was 32 basis points and remained contained reflecting the resilience of the loan book and the favorable asset quality environment. Turning now to the bridge of the different components of the total provisions for the quarter shown on the top right-hand side. We booked EUR 105 million of loan loss provisions. Then we have EUR 3 million of provision write-backs on foreclosed assets supported by gains from sale from real estate disposals. In addition, we recorded EUR 23 million in NPA management costs and EUR 7 million in other provisions mainly related to litigation, all in line with the expected run rate. Looking ahead, we expect asset quality to stay favorable and total cost of risk to remain broadly stable at approximately 40 basis points for the full year. Let me now move to the balance sheet, covering asset quality, liquidity and solvency. On Slide 22, we see a continued improvement in the NPL ratio, while coverage levels remained broadly stable. The NPL ratio reached 2.4%, down 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter and a 35 basis points reduction year-on-year. At the same time, the total coverage ratio remained broadly stable at around 70%. In total, gross NPA ratio stands well below 3%, and while in net terms as a percentage of total assets, it remained stable at 0.7%. Moving to funding and liquidity. Our position remains robust, supported by a diversified funding structure and a sound liquidity buffers. The loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 93%, while liquidity ratios were broadly stable in the quarter. Credit ratings also remained unchanged during the quarter. All rating agencies have assigned a stable outlook, except for S&P, which maintains a positive one. Regarding the execution of our funding plan, this quarter, we tapped the Marcet with a covered bond of EUR 750 million, which allows us to lock long-term funding. Following the sale of TSB, our MREL needs have been reduced. Going forward, we expect to normalize the excess AT1 buffer in 2027. And while maintaining appropriate Embrel management buffers and accessing the corporate bond Marcet opportunistically, and we will continue using SRT to optimize capital. Now let me walk you through the evolution of our capital ratio which remained broadly stable during the quarter. Our CET1 ratio increased by 1 basis points to 13.12%, with 39 basis points of capital generation before dividend accrual. This includes 50 basis points from organic capital generation after deducting 81 coupons, fair value reserves adjustment in the fixed income portfolio deducted 13 basis points due to higher interest rates and a positive 2 basis points impact from the evolution of risk-weighted assets. The dividend accrual, then reduced CET1 by 38 basis points. including the new interim cash dividend of EUR 0.07 per share. And to end my part of the presentation, I would like to highlight our shareholder value creation. This is reflected in a double-digit year-on-year growth in tangible book value per share plus the dividends distributed over the last 12 months. And with that, I will hand back to Marc, who will conclude today's presentation.

Thank you very much, Sergioio. To conclude today's presentation, let me just briefly recap why we remain confident in achieving our profitability targets for both '26 and '27. Key message here is that everything is moving in the right direction. Revenue growth continues to build. NII increased again this quarter and is expected to grow in the fourth quarter and looking forward. As Sergioio mentioned, we are marginally lowering our NII guidance for 2026 to around 1% growth, while customer margins will continue to improve, we now expect them to exceed 290 basis points in early 2027, reflecting the higher-than-expected path for ECB rates. At the same time, loan volumes remain on track to deliver our full year guidance. Fees delivered another strong quarter supported by the renewed agreement with Amundi. We now expect fees to grow by around 4% in 2026, while continuing to see growth going forward. On costs, visibility has improved further. The early retirement program is already generating savings and cost growth remains well controlled. We will also benefit from a more favorable year-on-year comparison in the fourth quarter of 2026. As a result, we have improved our cost guidance and now expect recurring costs to increase by around 2% in 2026. The Asset quality remains robust. The NPL ratio continues to decline and cost of risk remained stable at 40 basis points, fully in line with our expectations for the year. All in all, we remain on track to deliver our 2026 profitability target of 14.5% return on tangible equity and 16% for 2027. And finally, we are announcing a new interim cash dividend of EUR 0.07 per share, which will be paid in December. This is fully consistent with our commitment to shareholder remuneration. With that, let me hand it back to Lluc for the Q&A session.

Thank you, Marc. As always, I would kindly ask you to limit your questions to a maximum of 2, so that we can allow as many analysts as possible to participate. So operator, could we open the line for the first question, please?

First question is coming from Matthew Large from BNP Paribas.

I have 2 questions. The first 1 is on fees and then actually both are focused on revenues -- but the first 1 is on fees. I just wanted to understand what was the strategy behind or the sale linked to the Amundi agreement improvement in terms of contribution and whether there is any commitment to increase the penetration of motor funds within your client base, which to me 1 of the biggest weaknesses compared to the sector or to other peers in the Marcet. And linked to this, whether there are other products or JVs where you could improve further so that you increased fee penetration as a percentage of total revenues. The second 1 is on deposits. If you could elaborate a bit on the expected trends in terms of deposit competition. How should we think about cost -- deposit cost evolution and mix dynamics in the quarter which as far as I see, has been relatively stable, but just wanted to get a bit of your thoughts on how deposit costs will evolve from here?

Thank you, Ignacio. On the Amundi agreement, I mean, we have -- I would say, we have kept a strategy that has worked for us and we feel happy with the, let's say, industrial model that it comes with. And the rationale for that is we find partners or we aim at finding partners that have the scale and the level of specialization to provide the best possible products for our customers. we saw an opportunity, both parties to extend the agreement because it was built on top of our relationship that had worked since we first signed this contract. So we are happy with the catalog with the level of functionalities. And we kind of use the opportunity to extend the duration of the contract and to improve the economic conditions to bring them to a more, let's say, Marcet standard level. We believe that Amundi gives us the opportunity to continue to increase our share of wallet on our customer base. And as you will -- and as you were rightly saying, we believe that this is a big opportunity we have in the quarters and years to come, while we aim at focusing ourselves on higher value customers and on relationship banking-based model. And the second part of the first question, which was other products, JVs. As you know, we have other partnerships. I'd say that the most relevant 1 is on insurance business with Zurich. I would say that on this contract, we see -- again, the right kind of relationship model and we are happy with our level of collaboration with Zurich. And we will aim at improving any conditions in any part of our business. That's as much as I can say here. On the deposit trends, composition and evolution, I'll probably just open it and then I'll hand it over to Sergioio. We have a very stable deposit base that comes from the fact that we are bank that has deep relationships with customers. And the part of non-remunerated deposits that we see on our balance sheet come mainly from a very, let's say, atomized customer base accounts. More than 85% of our retail deposits are transactional, meaning that they keep very low individual volumes on these accounts on a lot of accounts and we provide them service as the main bank. And something similar happens on the SME space. where we are proud to say that we have deep relationships, transactional relationship come with this level of cheap funding that in the context we are living in will benefit us looking forward. With that, I'll hand it over to Sergioio.

Thank you, Marc. Not a lot more to add. As you said, the bulk of our deposits are connected with the relationship that we have with our customers. And we look forward to maintaining the primacy with those customers of being their buy bank so that can ensure us to have all the transactionality. And that is what is behind the stability that we have seen for a long time in our current accounts. And when there is a change in rates like the 1 we have seen this year where rates started to change in expectations started to change in March and then rates were increased by the ECB in the summer and then again in September. Of course, this flows into the Marcet. There are better offers for them deposits out there. and this is reflected in the cost of deposits. But on a very contained basis, actually, we have seen that when looking at the evolution of deposit cost and EURIBOR 3 months as we show in the presentation, the delta remains, I would say, that very, very stable. We think that connection is going to continue in the future. as rates are expected to continue going up, and we're now expecting ECB to hike 1 more time this year, and our EURIBOR already reflected this. then we are expecting deposit costs to keep on moving up, but within this sort of relation. And the same for loan yield, we have seen an increase in 6 basis points in deposit costs and 8 basis points in the loan yield. And actually, going forward, we expect loan yield to continue outpacing the increase in the deposit cost, and that's the basis for our expectation of customer margin to keep on progressing and reaching close to 290 basis points by year-end. Okay. Could we move to the next question, please.

Next question is coming from Max Mishyn from JB Capital.

Two for me, please. One is on the costs. Inflation expectations have increased, yet you are outperforming your target. Can you please discuss in general terms the levers you have to keep the cost growth contained beyond 2026? And then the second 1 is just a clarification your expectations for customer margin of 290 basis points. Is it the fourth quarter or December? .

Thank you -- on costs, the evolution we are seeing in the year has to do with the early retirement program that we announced and we executed in Q1 and in Q2. So we are now starting to see the benefits of that along, I would say, with the cost discipline that we have. We look very carefully at every single euro we spend in the bank, and we will continue to do that in a healthy way. I would say that this is pretty much the answer to question 1 for question to, I'll hand it over to Sergioio.

Sure. Thank you, Marc. It's for the quarter. And I think this number actually shows more a direction of travel. That's a very hard number. So we are seeing that close to EUR 90 million -- it's been 286 million in the third quarter. So it will get closer to 290.

Thank you, Max. So let's move to the next question, please.

Next question is coming from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. .

Yes. The first 1 is on NII. Sergioio, you mentioned that the short-term impact when the ECB hikes rates is slightly negative, but it should be a net positive at the end of the day. So I want to ask you about the EUR 3.9 billion NII target for '27. The run rate of Q4 '26 plus 4% volume growth should get you there. So what could prevent you from revising the '27 NII target? If it is -- if you believe that in customer spread? Do you think that you could improve further in '27 or you are concerned with deposit mix or deposit competition? So anything that could give us color on the direction to get or bit your NII target for '27? And my second question is, I want to ask you about how much of the NPA management costs of EUR 23 million, EUR 24 million per quarter that you are booking in your total cost of risk belong to the interim JV. I understand this JV is due in '27. What shall we expect going forward here?

Thank you, Paco. Indeed, the moving parts of the NII come from the evolution of volumes and margins. Volumes are progressing in line with our expectation. Year-to-date, it's been 4.4% increase. So very comfortable to end the year between 5% to 6%. So clearly, in the mid-single-digit range growth that we anticipated. And deposit growth is also progressing well. It's around -- it's more than 4%, so even a little bit ahead of our expectation. Regarding the impact of interest rate movement as you correctly got me. We have different liabilities and some deposits that are linked to Ester, which is the day 1 -- the daily rate. So when ECB hike rates then we have a higher cost initially. This difference is close to EUR 15 billion. But then over time, given that we have something like 60% of the loan book that reprice and only 40% of the deposit book that reprice is more than EUR 20 billion of more loans more loans than deposits that get repriced over time. So we are expecting customer margin to go up in the fourth quarter, but also into 2027. And despite, as we are saying, the increase in NII has been somewhat a little bit delayed. We think the full potential remains there. and we are confident that we can reach the EUR 3.9 billion NII in 2027. On the deposit mix, given the higher level of rates, we are assuming that the non-remunerated part is going to remain stable before we thought that it could grow, but in a higher interest rate environment with more attractive offers we think that rather that's going to be stable. And the growth is going to come in deposits from other remunerated part from term deposits from online, from the different offers that we have, but that's being embedded in our sort of model, and that is -- that change is offset by the higher interest rate. So yes, we think that the full potential of the EUR 3.9 billion is still very achievable. And regarding the NPA cost that we booked EUR 23 million, roughly half of that is the cost of agencies and we think those agencies, Intrum is the most important of them. We had a contract with Intrum that has been running for quite a while now, and it will end at the end of 2027. In any case, we will continue keeping -- I mean, using agencies. We are happy to see that the foreclosed asset book is clearly trending down. So that, of course, is going to be a tailwind. But then in due time, we shall look into this as usual, we'll do our best to optimize management cost.

Perfect. So let's move to the next question, please.

Next question is coming from Ignacio Cerezo from UBS.

The first 1 is on the comment around 60% of the lending book being floating, -- so we think about lending pass-through as rates actually keep increasing. Do you think you're going to be able to pass through 60% of the rate increases onto your lending book? Or there is any reason from a mix point of view or competition point of view, implying that, that number that pass-through will be smaller? And the second question is on the corporate lending book in Spain. That seems to be kind of stable actually year-on-year. if you can share with us actually why is that? Why is that not growing, given that normally actually played bank? And what can you do with you actually to accelerate the lending growth on SMEs and corporates?

Thank you, Ignacio. I'm going to take the second one, and I'm going to leave the first 1 for Sergioio. We are seeing on SME growth, I would say, increased competition. we are growing, I'd say, on a healthy way on mid-long-term -- on the mid-long-term loan book. And on the working capital book, we are facing a little bit more of a challenge. But I mean, I would say this quarter comes with the impact of but we see a strong pipeline for the remainder of the year, and we believe that we will find ways to continue to grow on this loan book.

Thank you, Marc , and thank you, Ignacio. Regarding the 60%, when we say floating, we mean everything -- anything that could reprice in the next 12 months. And this includes both the floating rate loans, but also any fixed rate loan that matures in the year. So of course, this has a lot of moving parts but the direction of travel is very clear that we are going to be replacing the loan book upwards. We have different indexes, a very commone is EURIBOR 12 months, and the EURIBOR 12 months gives a high degree of progressivity because it's a portion of the book that reprice every month. So actually, we see the biggest intensity of this repricing taking place during the first half of 2027, more concrete in the second quarter of 2027.

Thank you, Ignacio. Shall we move on to the next question, please?

Next question is coming from Pablo de la Torre from RBC Capital Marcets.

My first 1 was a bit of a follow-up on deposits. I think the percentage of fixed-term deposits has come down by 1 percentage point in the quarter, but I see that percentage of remunerated balances has already started to increase by more than that. You just mentioned that you expect these deposits to drive most of the growth going forward. So my question is where do you see the deposit spread and the customer margin more specifically stabilizing in 2027, assuming your ECB 2.75 rate. And also just to clarify, for the quarter, 1 of your peers has noted a one-off public sector deposit inflow in Q3. And I was just wondering if -- that is also a dynamic that you saw in the quarter that is driving the deposit cost higher than you might have expected otherwise. The second question was on distribution. At the end of last year, you said that EUR 2.5 billion remuneration target for this year and next. It has been a few quarters since you have explicitly reiterated this target, but I guess everything keeps on track. I was just wondering what your latest thoughts were here in terms of the split of that EUR 2.5 billion as well as any thoughts you might have on how that split might change beyond 2027?

Thank you. Regarding the deposits, yes, when we mean sort of remunerated, they include both potentially covering accounts with our remuneration and term deposits, as you have correctly spot on. because that is part of our offer, which is a very complete and comprehensive one. And indeed, that is the component of deposits that we where we expect growth going forward, given the current level of rates above 3% in EURIBOR 3 months so with attractive rates. That's the assumption that we have embedded in our model and this -- and with this, the growth in the loan yield will outpace this growth, and we will see customer margin getting close to 290 basis points in the fourth quarter. And then into 2027, we also expect customer margin to keep on increasing and reach and getting around 300 basis points. So for 2027, we see tailwinds for NII, both in customer margin and in volumes. And those assumptions are the ones that are supporting our expectation that NII will reach the EUR 3.9 billion Marc in 2027. And regarding distributions, maybe let me get started, Marc, and then you can continue. I think I think so far so good. We are announcing today another interim dividend. The first 1 was in the form of share buyback. This one, I would say that we get back to normal, and we are paying EUR 0.07 cash. And to me, that is going to be the normality and that connects with the expectation that we mentioned last year of paying more than EUR 0.20 per share cash on a regular basis. And then on top of that, the policy remains fully unchanged. So capital distribution -- excess capital above 30% will be distributed at due time. I think it's a bit early to discuss further distribution, but we will have more clarity at year-end and we will -- and hopefully, we'll be able to update you on total distributions.

I think that I'd just add to add that we -- I mean, we are now kind of feeling confident on the level of profitability that was underneath these idea of distributing the EUR 2.5 billion. And nothing has changed in terms of policy and in terms of what we are seeing looking forward.

Thank you, Pablo. So let's take the next question, please.

Next question is coming from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. .

Carlos Peixoto from Caixa Bank. Just a couple of questions from my side as well. I'm sorry, I have made some of these comments before, but the first 1 would actually be just to understand a bit the drivers behind the small downgrade we saw in both NII growth guidance for this year and also for fee income? Or was it the shape of the yield curve, the pace of rate hikes? -- just to understand a bit the drivers there? And then the second question would be a bit more on, which is basically how you see the changes and are these rulings regarding fiber growth and what type of expectations do you have in terms of what this could mean in terms of the litigation charges going forward for the bank? Thank you.