Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 11, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorHello, everybody. Thanks very much for joining us today for Barry Callebaut Forever Chocolate: Impact beyond 2025 investor Q&A session. Delighted -- my name is Mike Tyrrell. I'm the editor of SRI Connect. I'll be moderating the questions. I have 2 very simple things to let you know. Firstly, to let you know that the call is being recorded. This is just for the company's usage, but we need to let you know that in advance of case you have any concerns. Secondly, is to tell you how to ask questions. When it comes to questions, we're try and group them in the relevant sections in the relevant issue areas. So please do use the post-question feature on Zoom. And what I'll do is I'll read them out, but also if your question is more complex or requires follow-up, I will open your line. Hopefully, that way, we should be able to get a very good flow of well-structured questions and answers. We've got a number of people on the call today, so we're going to try to be efficient about that. With that in mind, I'm going to hand over to Claudia, who is going to introduce the team at Barry Callebaut and leave us into the presentation. Over to you, Claudia.
Claudia Pedretti
executivePerfect. Thank you very much, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen. It's a pleasure to welcome you today to our special session for investor and analysts so that we can answer all your questions. You might have following the launch of our Forever Chocolate an impact beyond 2025 strategy from yesterday. I'm here with the entire team today to answer all your questions, and I'm delighted to have Nicolas Mounard, our Vice President for Sustainability and Farming; as well as Oliver Von Hagen, our Director, Global Ingredients Sustainability and of course, also from our corporate communication and ESG communication side, Christiaan and Taryn with us today. Mike already introduced himself, he will act as a moderator as you know, and we are supported by the interactive team today as well. So prior to addressing your questions, Nicolas will take a few minutes, and he provides a brief summary of yesterday's launch and the highlights of some of the changes and additions. Please, Nicolas.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveThanks, Claudia. So we'll try to keep it short, probably 10, 15 minutes on the main highlights of yesterday, and then we'll open up to questions. Next slide. So next one. We just wanted to start with a quick reminder about what Forever Chocolate was back in 2016. Most of you will be familiar with the structure, but basically 4 pillars, one pillar around [ Prospa Pharma ], which is the poverty reduction and agricultural pillar with an ambition to lift 500,000 funders out of poverty by '25. We have the second pillar, which was the zero-child labor, verbalized around an initial commitment of eradicating child labor from our supply chain by '25, which is our climate and carbon commitment, which was basically structured around 2 sub commitment being common positive being forest positive and then the sustainable chocolate the fourth pillar, which was around having 100% sustainable ingredients in all our products. Before we move into the new plan, I think we just wanted to maybe take a second through the next slide to also say how proud we are of what we've achieved over the last 6 years. And we just wanted to highlight 4 main elements of progress. Obviously, on Prospect nature on prosaic farmers, sorry, we are roughly midway through with 215,000 farmers above poverty line. I'm sure some of you will have some questions also around the world and poverty line. Just for you to know, it's been revised to at $2.15 per day back in October. But year-on-year, we were anywhere adjusting the 190 with the inflation. So we were already factoring an increase on that test. On the zero child labor, we have now some child labor monitoring and remediation system on 81% of our direct supply chain, which also was a great achievement. On the carbon side, we ended up with minus 18% reduction in carbon intensity per tonne and probably also one that we are extremely proud of the fact that at the moment, half of our business is sustainable. For you to know, the baseline was 16%. So we started with 16% of the business being sustainable, move to 50% in 6 years. So quite an achievement. Next slide. And next one. So basically, the thinking is structured around also 3 key ideas. I might actually start with the one on the far right. mainly because you will have seen some of you that last week, we took the opportunity to release a white paper and release all the data we have gathered over the last 6 years in Ivory Coast. And for us, there is a real willingness to really root the new plan into all the knowledge that we've acquired over the last 6 years and all the data we've combined. We also acknowledge that one of the reasons why we decided to sharpen the '25 commitment is because SUSTANIT is a very moving environment, a very evolving environment and that sustainability in '23 doesn't necessarily mean exactly the same as in '16, and we wanted to capture that evolution. And yes, again, for me, a key idea also of yesterday is like targets are one thing, but we also want to give a message of know-how and capabilities. and that we are also very proud and very confident in the how in the doing in the approach as much as in the targets. Next slide. I'll go actually straight to next slide. I'm pretty impatient to move to questions, so I want to save a bit of time. Can we move to the next slide Yes. So basically on that side, we capture what we announced yesterday. We wanted, as you know, to do 2 things and to kill 2 birds with one stone yesterday. We wanted to sharpen the '25 target based on our understanding of what could be achieved and what would need a revision. But we also wanted to give a long-term view of where -- what we think the next step of Forever Chocolate was for 2030 and even beyond for [ Trevi ] nature. Then if I take them one by one, and then Oliver and I will give you a bit of substance of the approach. But basically on Prospering farmer, the 25% target is not changing. We're pretty confident that we will achieve the $0.5 billion cocoa farmer in our supply chain being listed out of poverty. Then for 2030, through the target, we're trying to achieve 2 things. First of all, we want to achieve or to acknowledge the discussion on leading income. So we think it's a very fruitful discussion. And obviously, the question was for us, can we make a hard commitment to leaving income? And the answer for us was no and there was 2 main reasons for now. The first one is around the fact that we are a B2B company, and that's 2, in order to commit to living income, we need our customers to committed living income, which is not a reality yet. And just for you to know, if we're considering currently the farm gate price in Ivory Coast and Ghana, leaving income would mean an additional $1,000 to $1,200 per tonne on top of the [ systemicity ] price that we're charging at the moment. But there's also more fundamental reason for us where we really believe that leading income can only be a reality through a massive transformation of cocoa. And we want to be quite a leader in the discussion around the transformation of cocoa farming. And we think that in order for the income to be a reality, there is a lot of factor that needs to change, including size of farm, which is a key factor. So we want really to advocate for a radical transformation of cocoa farm. On human rights, we're committed to having full due diligence on our supply chain. You will have noticed that we are also expanding from talking only about child labor to now talking about human rights. That was obviously on purpose. There is a willingness for us not only to address child labor, but to also address other topics like force labor. And then for 2030, what you will -- the spirit of what we formulated as a target for 2030 is very much the fact that we believe in the necessity to move from a very individualized logic on -- particularly on child labor to a more collective community-based and systemic-based approach. I'm sure you will have some questions on this. So I'm shifting out to trading nature. We keep the commitment of being for us positive for 2025. And then we really wanted to embed trading nature into the science-based target. Most of you will be familiar with that. But really, this is the translation of the Paris agreement into the corporate world. And for us, there's a core commitment to focus mainly on our own emission more than relying on the voluntary carbon markets to offset. So there's a real willingness for us to decarbonize the business. And we also announced a net-0 commitment for 2050, which is something that also we are extremely proud of. Finally, on the fourth commitment. Again, I really want to reemphasize the huge progress that we made on this one, starting from 16% to 50%. According to our forecast, by '25, we will be probably around 75%, 76% of the business being sustainable. We think we need 5 more years to make it up to 100%. But we also wanted in that commitment to add also something that we are very proud of, which is the commitment to full traceability to farm level by 2030. So here are the target we announced. But again, for us, it's the target, but it's also the approach. And both Oliver and I wanted to bring you through our thinking about the way to achieve this target and how we are approaching the program. Next slide. Next one. So then when we talk about poverty reduction and we talked about agriculture in general, for us, it's quite a big statement that we've made yesterday around moving from a knowledge-based approach to an action-based approach. What do we mean by that? We made the conclusion that a lot of the industry actually also NGOs are really building a lot of the [ sustainability ] program around the notion of training around the notion of [ Farmasil ] school around the notion of demo plots. And therefore, for us, the assumption behind a knowledge-based approach is that basically farmer would need to be trained and farmer would need to be top. And according to the data we released last week, we don't think it's the right assessment. You will have seen that in the white paper, but we think that the main program is under investment in the farm, really very significant underinvestment at the moment in what you will have read in the paper last week, $119 per copper year in Ivory Coast, which is ridiculously low. And because we believe also in the ability of yield increase to generate property reduction, we're actually pretty clear on how to achieve yield increase, but that get increase can only be achieved by a higher level of cost of production. According to our assumption, probably somewhere between $550 to $650. So what is core to our approach is to say, let's do less training and let's free up some investment capacity to company farmer in that journey towards an increased level of cost of production, leading to increased yield and leading to a reduced property. So a lot of investment for us over the last year and the coming year towards labor groups, so subsidizing labor towards access to fertilizer and also towards access to planting materials. So those are the 3 big elements that we want to push in the coming years. Next slide, twice actually Yes. Again, I want to repeat that point, but for us, it's also quite innovative and both. A lot of the industry has been structured around an individualized approach, particularly on child labor, which would mean that we would have to visit every single farmer and to interview every single child. And then based on the identification of child labor, we would have to develop some individualized remediation plan. We don't really think that the individualized approach makes sense, both in terms of identification in terms of remediation. In terms of identification, we think research like the [ Nor ] report for example, that was published in 2019 are probably better way to measure prevalence of child labor. And in terms of remediation, we're pretty clear about what are the driver of child labor, being in terms of use of chat tools, use of heavy loads, exposure to agrochemicals. And we think it makes a lot more sense to deliver remediation at community level or at systemic level and to move away from an individualized approach that we don't think is particularly effective. So a lot of the strategy in the next 3 to 5 years will be around community-based approach, system-based approach, which we think are more efficient than individualized approach. Then I'll hand over to Oliver, who is going to talk about the approach on climate and ingredients.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveSo talking about next slide, driving nature. Nicolas mentioned it, we're keeping our forest positive commitment for 2025. So making sure that there is no deforestation in any of our supply chains backing that with remote sensing and traceability. Data, plus adding the first positive part through agroforestry and cocoa, for example, or landscape projects in palm oil in Indonesia as another example where we protect forest and engage in reforestation. Can you go to yes, okay. That's fine. That's okay. We're also changing our current positive targets in terms of timing, but also in times of wording. Nicolas mentioned it, we're using the science-based target initiative, so really linking our targets to science and making sure that we -- with the emissions that we're responsible for stay within the 1.5-degree trajectory by 2030 and then becoming a net 0 company by 2050. And so if we move to the next slide -- you'll see that the notion of offsetting that was always part of a current positive target is not there anymore. It was important for us to change that into a notion of in setting, so reducing our emissions in our supply chains, with our suppliers and with the farmers that we source from Plus, of course, within our own operations. If we move on -- to our last commitment around 100% certified and verified cocoa and ingredients. So we pushed that from '25 to '30. So a change in timing as well, more significantly a change in wording to getting rid of the sustainable cocoa ingredients wording that we thought it was too blurry. And here, we bought being actually more precise about what the achievement is on. Obviously, the certified and verified includes certifications that we think are strong enough, are credible enough to help us achieve our targets. And then the Verified, of course, expresses our own programs such as cocoa horizons, such as programs that we run on dairy or coconut. Nico mentioned it, the additional ambition we're really adding here is the traceability to farm level. One thing is achieving that in our direct supply chain, another challenge is achieving this in indirect supply chain, so where we depend on third-party suppliers. -- that is, of course, where it is much more challenging because we depend on others to achieve this, and we need to work through suppliers to achieve this level of traceability that we need. However, we thought this is absolutely important to add a traceability commitment to offer adopted strategy as it is the backbone of a lot of the things that we do, a lot of the targets that we have, whether it's on deforestation, whether it's on decarbonization or any of the other targets that we have. So we're very proud and very excited that this is now -- visibility is now part of our take. Finally, a word on how we changed from a more conceptual and approach point of view, the last pillar whereby we've been focusing a lot on customer-centric programs with relatively low levels of engagement of governments, whether in the origin countries or particularly in the Artic countries, but also in the receiving countries, if you like. So our sales regions to a program that actually embraces more what we have said from the onset when we launched Fire chocolate in 2016 that we need to create a movement. And that, of course, includes the involvement of all stakeholders. And we stand by it. We do need all stakeholders to achieve our targets, including NGOs, but governments particularly. And we're seeing more engagement from governments in origin countries but also in other regions, Europe, for example, where more regulation is coming up, and that is really helping us achieve our targets, but we've been also pushing actively in urging countries, Ghana and Ivory Coast to mention 2, but also at EU Level 4 for a partnership because we do need to embed what we do intrinsically in what governments are doing and partnering with that. So that is an important conceptual shift as well in how we approach our last commitment of fortunate.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveI think we are ready to open the question, [ Mike ], at that stage.
Operator
operatorLovely. Thank you very much. Nicolas, Oliver and Claudia at the beginning. That's been a very comprehensive run-through of an evolution in your program. The last slide actually had me thinking that the need to go to a wider stakeholder model is I'm sure what needs to be done. But of course, presents some challenges to investors, who would need to see individual value chains. So I imagine there are going to be a lot of people with specific questions about the changes to the those programs and what they mean for your value chain, notwithstanding that you're looking at a wider stakeholder approach. So just quickly, I'm not sure we have quite the right questioning setup. [Operator Instructions] But perhaps to get what people are thinking of their questions or formulating, perhaps I could ask a couple. So Oliver, actually. My first one is to Oliver, if I may. And you mentioned that ensuring traceability in your indirect supply chain is hugely important and difficult. Could you give us a little bit of detail on how you're going to do it.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveAbsolutely. I'll take example of palm oil simply because it is a high-risk ingredient when it comes to deforestation topics, but also on forced labor issues, for example. And so we work very closely with our suppliers. We've built up relationships, of course, over the years. We're engaging on programs on the ground. So how do we do it? First of all, we use our relationships with them. We link the ask for data to contracts that we have with suppliers. And so we're taking a holistic approach, whereby traceability is becoming one more metric, one more specification actually than we have when we buy from suppliers. And so it is important to -- some clear messages to them that, I mean, going forward, if you look at regulation, it will become mandatory to share this kind of data with companies like us that are buyers inside the EU. But also, we're seeing clear messages that going forward, when engaging in programs on the ground and also for that supplies outside of the EU traceability data is not negotiable anymore. And so it's becoming part and parcel of how we work with our suppliers. And so that message is one part and ways of operating. The other part is, of course, having a data infrastructure in place, working with partners that help us collect the data, traceability data and help us monitor deforestation based on traceability data. And so having a strong technical partner, on the other side is just as important. And so the combination of both, I think makes me optimistic that we're going to achieve our targets on traceability and that it actually is already a key part in how we work in this supply chain.
Operator
operatorThank you very much. I've got a question for Nicolas as well, if I may. Just to highlight, we've got no hands raised at this point and nobody sent in a question. So we've got some hands raising, tremendous. Okay. I'll be opening up your lines. Juan, just as a test, it would be great if you could also see if you can send us a question by the chat as well, but I will open your line up anyway.
Unknown Analyst
analystMy question quickly, then we're going to come to one seller. Nicolas, can you come back on your business? You've seen an aggressive way to put it? Have you come back on the 0 child labor target. You said 2030, but previously, I think it was 2025. Could you just clarify what's happened there and perhaps why?
Nicolas Mounard
executiveI'm not surprised about the question. So no, we haven't come back on the commitment. We are still fully committed to eradication of child labor. You will have seen that in the way we also formulate and phrase the target. We are committed to remediate every single case we identify. Also really important for me to mention the approach. And I think there's a lot of innovation and boldness in the fact of, say, of acknowledging that an individualized and case-by-case approach needs to evolve towards a community-based approach. And I think we keep a strong leadership on that. Then it's clear that we also wanted to acknowledge that child labor would not be eradicated in 2025 and that we needed to be honest on this. I always give the same example. But at the moment in the U.S., you have probably more than 1 million cases of child labor. At the moment in the U.S., when your child of 12 years old and you have the authorization of your parents and you don't miss school, you are actually authorized to work full time. So they will -- we will not have achieved eradication of child labor by 25. We stick to that commitment. We speak to that ambition and that willingness, but we wanted to find the right balance between an honest assessment of the situation and the boldness of our ambition.
Unknown Analyst
analystThe chart is stable, at least for me. Yes, we're very encouraged to hear about the drive to enhance the dialogue you have with government. I think that fits really well with the overall vision that you're setting and even more than that, it's critical to achieve your objectives. We're just wondering what sort of guidelines, if any, or criteria, are you thinking of setting up to ensure that any dialogue/lobbying that you do with governments follows some sort of responsible approach, if you will.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveWell, I would say, first of all, we're pretty clear again on what we -- on the vision of where we think cocoa funding should look like, and we have defined that vision per country. So now we're very clear about what we would like to see happening in Ivory Coast that we would like to see happening in Ghana, in Ecuador, et cetera. So going to create a framework that vision of where do we think we can engage with the government and on what topics. I can give you a couple of examples. One example is on traceability. Obviously, if I look at the approach that we have, our approach is structured around 3 tools. One tool is the polygon. So the mapping of the farmers. The second tool is an alert system. So we're basically uploading all our polygons into a satellite image system where we can overlap trove loss with our polygons and then investigate alert. But the third element of our approach authorized, I think, is very ambitious, is what we call yield control. So at the moment, we are capping the volume we procure from a certain farmer. We say, okay, if you have 1 hectare and you're in that region, that hectare cannot produce more than 600 kilograms breakdown. So we stopped buying 600 kilograms per hectare. For us, it's a big constraint on our supply chain. It's a big constraint that we're putting on ourselves. But obviously, as you know, cocoa and in general, commodity are liquid. So the excess volume above the 600,000 that can come from the forested area is slowing in the market. So for us, it is really important that we are taking the lead on something like your control but that year control has to be taken over by government for that control to be actually applied at country level. So all that to say, we have a model where we defined exactly the characteristic of what we would see cocoa farming evolving towards. And that created a framework in which we're going to engage with government, and then we will have a specific topic. I mentioned traceability. I could mention land that's a big, big topic. We think we need bigger farms, not massive farms, but at the moment, we estimate that to reliving income, a farm should be more towards 5 actors. And at the moment, in Ivory Coast and Ghana, we're probably more towards 2.5. So land consolidation needs to happen. And that's also a topic on which we want to engage.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd do you see scope for these conversations with government to be -- what's a word Basically, what I want to know is to what extent can you ensure that what you and others in the industry are telling the government is aligned to drive the improvements that you want to achieve?
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveI think what's very important on the line is that all our engagement with governments, particularly when the policy is happening in public platforms. So it's very -- it's either directly through trade associations or it's happening in public platforms such as the coal platform that the EU commission which are the accessible platforms.
Samantha Darbyshire
analystI just wanted to kind of get more of an idea on -- you're obviously engaging with local governments, which is great. But in terms of how far you can actually go without the help of governments in order to achieve your sustainability goals, like thinking about the current environment you continue to work at mapping your supply chains and engaging with farmers. What's the feeling for you in order to be able to reduce child labor and ensure that your volumes are sustainable and certified?
Nicolas Mounard
executiveI think it varies depending on topic. I think you mentioned traceability that's probably a subject on which things are moving forward very rapidly. We have just added over our database of Ivory Coast to go to the government of Ivory Coast, and we are really actively supporting both the development of Crest system in Ghana and Ivory Coast -- and we are welcoming the fact that team is moving forward very rapidly. On child labor or human rights, I would probably make here the distinction between Child labor and Forced labor. On fourth lever because here, we're talking about criminal cases. We need very strong engagement with local authority and child protection agency. We are discussing at the moment with the government of overcomes to sign an MOU on force labor. On Child labor, that's probably something that is somehow more in our control in terms of measurement and remediation. So we're pretty confident about the approach. Then in general, we're also very conscious that typically poverty reduction will be a big factor to reduce child labor and that therefore, there is a connection between the human right pillar and the Prospering farmer pillar. And on the processing farmer pillar, we see the need of structural change, as I mentioned, to drive property reduction. So obviously, on something like that, we think that the level of engagement with government needs to be to be really strong in order to generate the policy reduction that will have a direct impact at scale in terms of reduction of child labor.
Pascal Boll
analystPerfect. Pascal Boll from Stifel. So I appreciate your picture and your story you're telling us it's been pretty comprehensive. However, I think it's the fact that you adjusted your target is also fair to say that you obviously are not able to achieve targets you set in the beginning, right? Now you set new targets. So it makes me wonder, first of all, what are the main dragging factors that kept you from achieving the 2025 target? Is it that your clients sometimes don't support you enough, especially when it comes to price? Is it the governmental framework in many of the or countries? Maybe you can give us some more color here. And then related to that, what makes you confident that you can achieve the new targets by 2030. Then more specific on child labor. I mean you had a very, very ambitious goal to see any kind of child labor now you're moving your targets and your kind of approach to that. even if everything or the -- your whole value chain is covered by this remediation or monitoring systems, what actually makes sure that did labor really reduces over time. And then maybe -- yes, maybe the last one on traceability of your cocoa beans. I think roughly 20% of your volumes you source from third parties. Will it be able -- will you be able to trace those means as well? And is that an ambition? Well, you see…
Nicolas Mounard
executiveYes. I think for us, it's quite important to remember that I think right from the start, we said it's some very ambitious targets, and we were pretty clear that some of them would be fully achieved. And maybe on some of them, we would be late. But what was important for us was the movement was the dynamic was the progress. And yes, I think it was pretty clear from the stop that the bar was very high and that even if we hadn't achieved 100%, we would still be very proud of what we've done, and that's entirely the case. Then what are the main building blocks that very much depend, I would say, I can give you a few examples on that. I think on trading nature, I don't think it's the fact of not having a cheaper target. It's just the fact that -- we actually think it's fundamentally the right thing to do to reposition the targets towards in setting and that we think the world has really changed, where back in '16, it was probably normal to make a commitment of offsetting where we would say, okay, basically, let's continue having a mission that increase, and we will offset them on external market. Now the world has changed. And I think we're all quite conscious that the emission is to reduce within the business. So for me, actually, the driving nature is a more ambitious target. The fact that we announced a net 0 commitment is a more ambitious target than the initial one because we are reentering the climate commitment towards really our practice in our business. On Child labor, I think we mentioned it. We talked about it. I think right from the start, we were super proud of really putting that flag out there, mobilizing the sector and the industry towards that topic. I think specifically on this one, we knew it would be hard to eradicate. I think now after 6 years, we're pretty clear that it will not be the case, but we stick to that commitment. Then what makes us feel confident that we'll achieve 2030. Well, I would say that all the knowledge that we've acquired over the last 6 years, and that's also why for us, it's quite important not only to talk about the target, but to talk about the approach because for us, the approach, the operating model, the way of doing things is what creates the trust in the achievement of the target. And I think now in 2023, particularly, you will have seen what we released last week through on the white paper, but we are extremely confident in the approach. Extremely confident in the operating model, and that's really what we assure us in our ability to achieve 2030. And just on the indirect supply. So actually, it's more than 20% that comes from indirect on cocoa. We've already started this. So just to give you an example, at the moment, we have roughly 0.5 million tonnes of bins that are sustainable. Roughly 80% of that comes from the direct sourcing. So that's where we started implementing sustainability. We really started in the direct sourcing. But we've actually made a lot of progress over the last 18 months to start implementing sustainability and therefore, traceability through third party. And we have now more than 100,000 tonnes of sustainable beams that are fully traceable and supplied outside of our direct supply chain. So really, the whole challenge for us in the coming 2, 3, 5 years is really the duplication of our direct sourcing model to the indirect sourcing model, and that's something on which we've made a lot of progress over the last 12 months.
Siobhan Lynch
analystThis is Siobhan Lynch from Deutsche Bank. I've got 3 questions. Maybe I'll -- should I run through all of them? Maybe firstly, on the sustainable ingredients point. I think in yesterday's presentation, you noted maybe 20% of the tail of what's going to sort of drag up to 2030 is lower volume ingredients, and that's driving some of the delay. Could you maybe talk a bit more about, I don't know, specific ingredients or supply chains that are proving more difficult, I guess, -- and what gives you the confidence that they can be resolved sort of by 2030. I think you mentioned palm oil, but maybe more broadly as well. And then on my second question, I think yesterday, there was a lot of interesting discussion around sort of the subsidies that you're providing to farmers, investment in farms and I guess, ultimately, the aim to improve the price that they're receiving for cocoa going forward. And it's clearly obviously hugely important. But I think potentially means structurally higher cocoa prices for you guys going forward. How should we think about this when it comes to how much of these costs? And I guess, overall, with this discussion that you're bearing themselves and how much is sort of starting to pass through to your customers if it's buyer cost-plus models or whatever? How should I think about that? And then very finally, on my third question, Decor station regulation came up yesterday as well. And I think one of your team mentioned on the call that it could mean reductions in the supply of cocoa in some areas where deforestation has been flagged. How significant could this be in terms of any reduction in cocoa supply it could cause, I guess, both to the industry, but also for you, most?
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveI'll start with the first one on ingredients. And so the remaining 20% that we're anticipating to be still nonsustainable or not covered by verification and certification program as of 2025 is based on a combination of low volumes, indeed, so supply chains where and supplies where we don't have the leverage compared to other supply chains. And so that, of course, makes implementing sustainable practices more complicated, but it's also other elements, for example, ingredients we source from origins that we have fundamental issues still and where we don't see the pressure from other stakeholders. It might be customers, media, Ngo whatever helps us to drive sustainable practices. And so origins that are more complicated for us to transform. And then also the third element, regions, sales regions where sustainability is less of a topic. So it's really those 3 factors that make -- transforming those 20% for us really, really hard in terms of smaller volumes, An example is coconut, coconut is actually an interesting example because it's not a large volume for us. And it's also a sector where until some years ago, sustainability wasn't necessarily an issue discussed at all. Coconut was seen as per default a sustainable, healthy organic ingredient, right? We wanted to change that perception in the public because it's simply not true. It is a highly unsustainable sector with farming systems that are very unsustainable a lot of farmers in poverty, which led us to, together with USAID, Green and West Asia and their program in that region to found the Sustainable Coconut platform to create a space where stakeholders could discuss sustainability issues and challenges and come up with joint solutions as a result of that platform -- we have developed and also signed the sustainable coconut charter. So that is now the basis that we can take to work with our suppliers and transform the sector into something that is more sustainable that helps us achieve our targets as well. So that is an example where, yes, you have many of those -- or 2 of those 3 elements that I mentioned coming together, but it's also the complexity of some of the supply chains that we face with many players within the supply chain. It makes it hard to transform the sector as such. Other examples include dairy, for example, that is not necessarily a low-volume ingredient for us, but it still is a sector where we do not have an industry-wide harmonized approach on sustainability. And so that makes it harder also because you engage with every single supplier on a joint vision and road map for sustainability. It's simply -- it's not impossible to achieve our targets. It just takes more time and hence, the additional 5 years that we need for those smaller ingredients, smaller volume ingredients, but also some of our larger volume in greens where we don't have harmonized approaches, and that always makes things more complicated, of course.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveSo question 2. So I will start with the conclusion of our white paper last week. We said that for us, property reduction will be driven by 3 factors: size of farm, increased yield, increased price, the 2 on which we have some influence are yield and price, and I will use that framework to answer your question. On the yield, what we say is, like, indeed, we prefer spending our sustainability budget in subsidizing labor or giving access to fertilizer or planting material, more than training. But this, we see that more as a transfer of investment, and we really try to encourage and convince our customer who pay for sustainability to reorient their budget from trading to doing. So a lot of the conversations we have at the moment with our global corporate account is based on that dialogue of saying, "Can we do less demo plot? Can we do less pharmacies too? And can we dedicate that money? -- to actually subsidize labor to maximize investment in the farm and therefore, increase yield. On the price, what we said yesterday is like, yes, we acknowledge that price make a difference and that price drives prove reduction, that's true, and that's proven also by our data. It was important for us to say that. But also what we said yesterday is that the discussion on price historically is very much a discussion on export price, so 3 on board prices and that we want to bring that discussion back to the farmgate level because the price that we pay at export level at the moment doesn't say anything about how much of that price goes back to individual pharma. The example that I took yesterday, I will bring it again today, but Ghana a good example because Ghana exporting out currency, so Ghana export in dollar, but fixed it's priced to farmer once a year in Ghana cities. Those of you who will follow the economic news in Ghana over the last 2 years, I know that, okay, this is a country in really hard difficulty starting to default on its step and also went through massive devaluation of the Ghanan cities. So basically, by selling in [ Nordean ] fixing CDs and seeing CDs being devaluated by 100%, while you end up in a situation where less than 40% of the export price go back to farmer. So we think that there are mechanisms for which we can increase the price paid to farmer and therefore, drive property reduction without necessarily it having a massive impact on the final price paid by consumer. So we are really willing to engage on more again, systemic conversation where we're asking how do we increase the price paid to farmer, the farm gate price and what would be the right breakdown of value across the supply chain. But we don't necessarily see that vision as having a fundamental impact on the cost of the product. Finally, on your third question, yes, it will have an impact, really important for us to make that argument. The EU deforestation-free regulation is not only a paper exercise. It has physical consequences. If you take every course, which obviously is the main producer of cocoa. -- depending on source of information, it's estimated that 15% to 25% of the cocoa comps from protected area that cocoa simply will not be available for the EU market, and we have to be discarded. So we expect for the EU market, a reduction of the pool of farms from which we can source -- and we all have to be aware that there might be a physical squeeze in country like Ivory Coast. And that's also why we advocate quite strongly for things like the lift of the ban on productivity program and planting material distribution in Ivory Coast. At the moment, in Ivory Coast, since 2018, it's prohibited by law to replant. And that's something that we think is not sustainable. The strategy that we think is the right one is that a country like Ivory Coast will have to produce the same amount of Cocoa on a smaller amount of land because they will have to disengage from the protected area. And then if you want to avoid the squeeze, you need to anticipate that and have an offsetting between the quantity you discord and the additional quantity you can produce in nonprotected and nondeferred area.
Unknown Analyst
analystI just wanted to ask a quick question to one on water use, particularly in the sort of raw materials supply chain and trying to understand a bit more how you're thinking about that? And then secondly, if there's been any discussion or kind of investment in more sustainable ingredients and I mean a alternative. So I've heard about palm oil alternatives, which I know mainly has kind of been used in the cosmetics market, but it's trying to be used in some food products as well. So just interested in those kind of 2 areas.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveOkay. Yes, were, of course, engaging in those conversations as well with suppliers for obvious reason in Palm. For other reasons in dairy, for example, we do have vegan chocolate, for example. So from a CO2 point of view, right, this is very interesting, dairy makes 30% of our CO2 footprint. And so looking at the dairy alternatives is something that we're definitely engaging in. They are more and more coming up. And so we haven't seen these alternatives being produced at scale. And so scaling this up is definitely one of the key issues. And then -- well, our R&D departments are Yes, working intensely on this. We do see, of course, impacts on taste as well. And so it's not such an easy replacement there, but a very interesting one that, as I said, with weaken chocolate, we are already using and we're definitely engaging further on also from a CO2 point of view. For Palm, from a functionality point of view of palm oil, particularly of pump kernel oil, it is becoming more complicated also because we use palm oil in oil mixes a lot. So it's being combined with other oils and fats as well. And so replacing one element in those mixes is complicated because then the mix doesn't work anymore, particularly in terms of functionality, right? So move and these kind of things. So it's less a question of taste, but then a question of the functionality of the ingredients. But yes, I mean, we're heavily engaging. We see that the replacement of some of the ingredients as one route to ensuring more sustainable supply chains or at least having a tighter control of issues like deforestation or CO2 reduction. So it's one element in the mix, absolutely. Will it become the main element? I'm not entirely sure. I think those replacements will obviously part of the -- a smaller part of the solution, but an interesting one, yes.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveAnd on water, really happy that the question came because we had some discussion on that topic with analysts about 6 month ago. So Cocoa is a water-intensive crop. So if you go and do some research on Google, you will say that it's probably one of the most water-intensive crop, but it's also a nonirrigated crop, 95% money irrigated. So it's a crop that requires a lot of water, but rained -- so it's very different from a crop that I also used to work on in the past like coffee where you have a lot of washing and therefore, a lot of water used in the process. The -- we do not, as in the farming operation of BC. We do not tap into water resources. So all the water that is required is rain-fed. So yes, it's a war intensive, but no, it does not damage water resources in the same way that an irrigated crop would or in the same way that a crop like coffee that is usually washed at is an arabica would. So for us, we really want to be very keen on this.
Alexander Sloane
analystThanks very much. Thank you can hear me, and thanks for the presentation, both yesterday and today are very comprehensive and useful. Two questions. The first just, I guess, poor arching question. I mean, could you give us a rough sense of how much additional cost could be involved within achieving these 2030 targets as a percentage of sales, perhaps how material could they be? And I guess how confident are you that the end market consumer will be willing to pay more in terms of more expensive chooses to compensate for it? And maybe how does that differ by geography? And then the second question, just go back to the forestation regulation. Do you think there's any risk of potential supply chain bottlenecks in Europe when this is kind of first implemented, if it's implemented as it is currently proposed. I mean, there's been some concern on this front from palm oil processes, in particular, that the amount of segregation that might be required in terms of processing and shipments, it's just not how the industry is set up today. So I mean I'd be interested in your views on that, both in terms of [ copout ] in terms of armor you obviously have a user of that commodity.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveOkay. Maybe we'll start by the second one and I'll take Cocoa and I give it you. And for me, I really -- I'm quite passionate about that at the moment. I think we need to be a bit careful about not using the term segregation when it comes to the differentiation free regulation. -- because that's -- for me, that's a term that's a term that comes from the sustainability world where you segregate A and B. Here, there is no A and B. You don't segregate anything. You are in a factory and everything has to be compliant. If you put yourself in a chocolate factory in Mulan, for example, in France, there will be nothing to segregate. Well, everything will have to be compliant. So -- but -- so what we need to provide is basically on every single batch, we'll need to provide a list of pharma. We need to provide a list of coordinate all mapping for fields that are bigger than 4 hectors. And then we'll need to provide a due diligence statement, whereby we can assure that the deforestation-free is negligible. But at least internally, I try to be as clear as possible on that. There is nothing to segregate. It's a regulation that will apply for any single volume that come into the market. Then on the bottleneck, maybe I'll hand it over to you if you have anything to add.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveYes, I'd just add on Pam, I think there -- it's a good question because obviously, it has been our concern as well in terms of potential supply issues there. However, when I'm on the ground and also speak to suppliers, there are 2 elements that make me think that we won't necessarily have supply issues, I think, in the. One is the EU is still a very small market for our pulp suppliers, very, very small. Most still goes to -- or remains within Asia, if you think about Malaysia and Indonesia, obviously, being the main growing country. So the vast majority stays within Asia. Some goes to America and then a small part goes to Europe as well. So it's a small market. And secondly, when we talk to suppliers, what we understand is that what they -- the supply chain that our suppliers were used to deliver to Europe are those where they are more integrated, right? So they own the mills, they own the plantations simply because that is where they have the control over in terms of traceability data in terms of deforestation monitoring their no intermediaries involved. And so suppliers, I expect at least will use those more into supply chains to deliver into Europe. And so these 2 elements make me think that we will not see a supply crunch necessarily. The more challenging part is actually -- the data that the suppliers will have to collect and also pass on to the supply chain. I think that is the bigger challenge. At the same time, sustainability deforestation and traceability are not new topics in palm oil. And so I think most suppliers are actually quite well set up to be compliant with the regulation coming up.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveAnd on your first question, I think we'll be pretty short on that. We've decided not to communicate a costing of the program. I think the thing that we can say is that there is a correlation between Pillar I and Pillar 1, 2 3. So we remain on the principle that sustainability is the cost that needs to be charged to our customer. And that therefore, in order to achieve the ambition of 123s a key component that we achieved also number for and that we expand our ability to sell sustainability to our customer. So yes, there's also advocacy to do on that of convincing customers to shift to sustainability. But again, for me, the big achievement of the last 6 years is that we've created a business model around sustainability. We are charging sustainability and on 50% of our business. We come with a price tag and that price tag is passed to the customer to finance citing program. So really, for me, it's quite groundbreaking that we've been able to invent a business model on facility to charge it. And in order to achieve 2030, yes, we need to convert the second part of the business.
Unknown Analyst
analystBasically a follow-up on the questions from Pascal and Alex and about your confidence of achieving the target for us to be confident. Don't you think you should be a bit more transparent and give us -- or share with us the costs you are really ready to commit to achieve some targets because as you can see, always gen here, our feeling is a bit mixed, especially after, again, a very negative report from the Ops Fund today. And I think when I hear you, Nico about the yields here the story for more than 10 years. And apparently, the distribution is very bad. So I think if you could share maybe some costs like some of your customers are doing while investing, how much it could give us a bit more confidence as well to be a little more transparent. And vans on the last question of Alex and what you said at the end, Nico, how many of your clients are ready or willing to pay a premium to assessed chocolate?
Nicolas Mounard
executiveOkay. So this one, I will answer. 50% of our sales sustainable, meaning that 50% of our sales come with a premium. So any sustainable sales come with a premium. And that premium is always divided in 2 parts. There is a cash premium pay to farmers, and there is a premium dedicated to activities. So 100% of this 50% sales comes with a premium. Then to be honest, how much do we charge sustainability. First of all, that depends from one customer to the other. So we don't price it the same way for one customer to the other -- mainly because not all customers have the same degree of ambition. So we have customers that want more. I can -- for example, you will have seen that we are implementing a very ambitious program called the household income accelerator with Nestle. But basically, the price is not the same for one customer to the other. So on the pricing, I cannot disclose it. Then on the question on yield. Yes, I cannot disagree with you. The yield hasn't moved up over the last 10 years. I think 2 things makes us feel more confident. First one is really the trust in the approach. And for us to say to the industry and when I say the industry, to be honest, have also been in the nonprofit sector, and I could also address the same criticism to the end -- but for us to say, hey, we need to acknowledge that we've been doing demo plots for 20 years that we've been doing pharma field school for 20 years and that it hasn't worked. We made that acknowledgment, but we also bring that acknowledgment with an understanding of what works. That's also why we released all the data last week is to say, okay, I mean, basically, if the gap is from $120 per hectare to $550 or $600 per hectare. Well, I'm pretty clear why it hasn't worked. It's like you can keep training the farmer on good data cultural practices is the acknowledgment that we make is like we need to bring them from 150 to 500 or 150 to 550 , well, keep training them, it's not going to work. So we're pretty confident in the approach. We are also pretty confident that what will work is the combination of activities with policy elements. I'll give you a couple of examples. I mentioned the ban on planting material in agri cost. At the moment, just not replanting is not the right strategy. You have trees that are, on average, 21, 22 years old in Ivory Coast. We know that the yield decreased with 25 years of age and 3. Well, we need to replant. We need to bring new varieties. We have a lot of knowledge and technical expertise on that subject. -- today, not replanting, not allowing us to replant is not the right strategy that needs to be lifted. And secondly, the point I was talking about size of farm, today, being able to come with a model and say, "Hey, we think that a sustainable size of farm is 5 to 10 actors, and therefore, we need to challenge ourselves as an industry to actually reduce the number of pharma and acknowledge that not all farmers can make it to leasing income and not all farmers can actually make decent out of cocoa. For us, those are bold statements that we hope should reassure you guys.
Operator
operatorSure, I feel sure this is a conversation run on, but I’m afraid we’re out of time, and we do want to come to [ Claire ]. So do continue [ Claire ]. Over to you.
Unknown Analyst
analystI had 2 questions, I'll keep them short. The first one was on the alignment between the different targets. And I think it was answered to some extent already throughout all the different questions, but I wanted to get back to it one last time. Because on the one hand, I think you have quite bold commitments on by 2025 on the forest positivity side, for instance, ensuring no deforestation but also on the human rights due diligence front by 2025, having that in place. But on the other hand, your target on actually getting visibility to also indirect suppliers to the farm level is only by 2030. So I was wondering how exactly that overlaps and how that works together and how you can still make sure that you meet those 2025 targets. And I think it's really about also ensuring that the assets within Barry Callebaut continue to be in line with your initial -- potentially more ambitious targets and also fully acknowledging the challenges that you've mentioned earlier in achieving the visibility target. And then my second question was on the scalability of agroforestry, and it might also be some documentation. So if it is free to guide me there. But I think overall, it's a very strong business case also 4 agroforestry investments, and I see that the hectares under agroforestry are among the KPIs that you're looking for in your forest positivity, but also your climate targets. But I'm still missing a bit really the strategy to scale the initiatives across the whole organization and across your whole sourcing model. So I was wondering whether you could share anything on either particular targets of hectares or investments going into that.
Oliver Von Hagen
executiveSo yes, we can -- so a few interesting things on that. I think here, again, there's a willingness for us of honesty, and there have been a lot of distribution of non-focused program over the last 10 years. We've all communicated a lot around distribution of nonprocessing. What we see is like the survival rate when nonintegrated into a proper agroforestry approach is relatively low. So this we've acknowledged and then what we've done last year was 2 things. First of all, starting to put payment for environmental services within our program, and we are basically putting some cash premium against survival rate on noncompeting. So we pay now EUR 50 per tonne director again against survival rate of 80%. And we've also been a lot more hands-on in the planting and the monitoring of the survival rate. So really, our message here is like really let's move away from kind of blanket distribution of non-cocoa seedlings and let's have a proper model. in which we come with a planting pattern. So 73 per hectare. And we are pretty clear on where we plan this tree, pretty clear on the mix of varieties, pretty clear on the correlation between [ survivor rate ] and payment for Environmental Services. And then on your question of scale up, yes, on that model, we are planning between 100,000 and 120,000 hectares of agroforestry with payment for environmental services in the next 5 years. So quite a big push. And you will have seen also in the news or B commitment and partnership with Nestle on the subject. And that's something on which we see a lot of traction with global corporate account where they all have a very significant science-based targets published and a big appetite to partner with us on programs such as agroforestry. So what we've put in place and signed with Nestle, when I go forestry for us is a blueprint for what we're going to do with all the global corporate accounts in the coming years.
Nicolas Mounard
executiveOn the second question, [ Claire ], thanks a lot. A very good one because, of course, there are many interdependencies and synergies between our targets and maybe instead of thinking of them as we present them on the slide, selling next to each other, I think of them as a matrix where they really support each other. And so to give some examples, lifting farms out of property, increasing their income improving their livelihoods, of course, helps us making sure that there is no giant labor. Nico mentioned the systemic approach we're taking here. And so by definition, a sustaining approach, make sure that these independencies are being considered. Another example, achieving our tighter human rights targets in the context of, let's take Kansu, for example, where we work with NGOs on the ground with Proforest, with solid value that and others -- to address labor rights to address human rights issues, but also to make sure that our suppliers of cane sugar are compliant with Bonsucro sustainability standards. And so that helps, of course, our sustainable ingredients target. At the same time, it helps our human rights target, right? So there are many interdependencies. Of course, we're going to set priorities. One priority. You mentioned transparency and traceability. One priority there is, of course, those ingredients that are more risky when it comes to, well, our targets and sustainability issues in general, might it be deforestation or others. So of course, we're going to focus our traceability efforts there first and now not necessarily to give an example on beat sugar being provided out of Germany, for example, or France, right? So we're going to, of course, prioritize and make sure that we use those synergies as much as possible. That helped us achieve our 2025 intermediate targets and then also the 2030 targets. And so I think this is also the beauty of rathole, whereby there are separate commitments, but one really supports the others. And so you have to think of them in a holistic manner. And that is also why this relaunch really makes all sense in the back to us.
Operator
operatorThank you very much, everybody. Thank you so, so much, particularly obviously thank you 2 Barry Callebaut for putting such a team in front of us with such a depth of knowledge. Thank you to [ Lucy and Kathy from InterAccess ] seriously, investors, analysts every company should be doing this now. Barry Callebaut has been leading the way for a number of years now. If you encounter companies that aren't doing a briefing on what they're doing in the sustainability space, please do point them in the direction of [ Lucy and Kathy ], as you can see, they can be incredibly constructive and positive learning experiences for everybody. And then thank you all for such constructive and in-depth questions. I love the punches from Pascal. I've never seen it, whereby my threat to ask any questions like up a switch forward of other people's questions in quite such extreme style. But I would also particularly like to thank Siobhan because she managed to ask 2 of the 5 questions I had ready to ask. So everybody, I think it's been a hugely constructive, very informative session, and I would encourage you to keep the conversation going, but thank everybody for their time today and wish you a good afternoon and evening.
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