Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 13, 2020

Deutsche Boerse Xetra DE Health Care Pharmaceuticals special 64 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Bayer's Crop Science R&D Pipeline Update. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Oliver Maier, Head of Investor Relations of Bayer AG. Please go ahead, sir.

O. Maier

executive
#2

Thank you very much, Emma. Good morning, and welcome to those joining us on the call today. We very much appreciate you joining us. We know it's a busy day today. We are very excited to be with you and share our annual research and development pipeline update for the Bayer Crop Science. As leaders in the space, we look forward to providing this update every year, not only for the benefit of our owners, but to provide transparency on the innovation we are bringing to our growers, customers and other stakeholders. With me on the call today are Liam Condon, the President of Crop Science -- of the Crop Science Divisions; Bob Reiter, who leads R&D for Crop Science and several members of his leadership team, including Mike Graham, Head of Breeding; Jeremy Williams, Head of Plant Biotechnology; Axel Trautwein, Head of Small Molecules; and Sam Eathington, Climate, Chief Science Officer, who many of you also met during our 2019 Crop Science Technology showcase in St. Louis. As always, I would like to start the call today by drawing your attention to the cautionary language that is included in our safe harbor statement as well as in all of the materials that we have distributed today. With that, no further ado, I'll hand it over to you, Liam. The floor is yours.

Liam Condon

executive
#3

Thanks, Oliver, and thank you all very much for joining us today. I'd like to start with why we put such an emphasis on research at Bayer. With the challenges we've seen in the last 2 years, it's kind of logical to ask if higher yields and better agronomic performance are really necessary? The short answer is yes. Despite weather, trade and the near-term effects of African swine fever in China, long-term demand for grain continues to grow. At the same time, climate change and finite resources are making it more difficult to meet that demand. Innovation is the answer to bridge these 2 challenges so that agriculture can be part of a sustainable solution. We are acutely focused on anticipating needs and developing the products necessary to provide our planet with healthy food and feed. Now on Slide 5, you can see that our mission is to shape agriculture to benefit farmers, consumers and our planet. And we are uniquely positioned to do this. We've assembled the industry's best ingredients, seeds and traits, crop protection and digital tools to tailor sustainable solutions for our customers' challenges. Many of our competitors have pieces of this, but our leading position in these areas enables a unique combination that no others can claim. On Slide 6, you can see that perspective here is important. We'll spend our time today looking out over what is on the horizon. But it helps to look back to see how far we've actually come. In this image from our Jerseyville research farm, which some of you on the line actually experienced in August last year, you can see the amount of land in each of those strips that it took to grow 10 bushels of corn in that year in the United States. Increasing scientific and technological know-how was continually infused to reduce the amount of land needed to produce the same amount of output. Advances in insect and weed control, genetics, nutrient management, tillage practices and planting density all contributed to driving these productivity gains. And we still see plenty of room for improvement. Technology creates opportunity. These advancements don't just improve productivity, they enable farmers to manage land and resources more effectively. And reducing the amount of land we put into production preserves biodiversity and improves carbon sequestration. This brings us to our sustainability commitments. As the leader in this space, we are unequivocal in our pursuit of setting new standards in sustainability. It is the innovation we will share with you today, that will allow us to meet those goals. Whether it's through digital tools provided by the FarmRise platform, our new higher-yielding Arize rice hybrids to smallholders, our Intacta 2 Xtend soybeans for large-scale growers in Brazil. For each of the products we will highlight today, we've included a sustainability advantage that reflects how closely these commitments and our technology priorities are intertwined. With that, I'll hand it over to Bob.

Bob Reiter

executive
#4

Thank you, Liam, and a very warm welcome to all of you. I've really been looking forward to today and the opportunity that it affords us to showcase the tremendous contributions and advancements from my team, and I'm so glad you could join us. Realizing the vision Liam highlighted takes responsible investment, and we're a clear front-runner. We're converting EUR 2.3 billion every year into meaningful products that growers around the world are demanding. To put that into some context, it's nearly double the R&D spend of our next closest competitor. And we don't expect that to wane. In fact, we've committed to EUR 25 billion of R&D investment over the next decade. These resources, though, are more than financial. With approximately 7,800 R&D employees in more than 50 countries, we are the partner of choice for new technologies and serve as the technology provider to the industry. And it isn't just about scale, it's about the productivity of that investment and the opportunities it can unlock. This investment manifests itself in 2 ways. On one hand, we pursue incremental improvements that strengthen our position as a leading technology provider in seeds and traits and crop protection. And don't read incremental as any less important than disruptive because farmers count on annual germplasm upgrades for higher-yielding seeds every year. And they seek to protect that yield potential with our latest innovation in biotech traits as well as chemical or biological crop protection, be it a new mode of action or a new formulation. However, the landscape in agriculture is evolving quickly and disruptive opportunities exist. Whether that comes from gene editing, predictive algorithms or new modalities and applications for crop protection. To realize these opportunities, we know that we need to take advantage of the great science that happens inside and outside of Bayer. Our open innovation model is designed to ensure that we have access to the best that science can offer, and we have a broad network that supplements the great work of our discovery teams and the work they're leading. This network, combined with our in-house capabilities, helps us unlock new potential in breeding, biotechnology, small molecule development, biologicals and data science. We have assembled the world's premier innovation platforms in agriculture. Our strength and scale in each of these scientific disciplines gives us a significant competitive advantage in creating the solutions for growers that will meet the challenges they face today and tomorrow. And it all comes down to this, the most productive pipeline in the industry. In 2019, we delivered 55 key products and formulation advancements and commercialized more than 450 new hybrids and varieties across corn, soybeans, cotton and vegetables. This isn't science for the sake of science. These products generate real value. We're expecting nearly EUR 30 billion in non-risk adjusted peak sales for the products we're developing. Corn products and germplasm upgrades account for close to half of that value, with strong representation in the other relevant crops. Roughly half of this peak sales is expected incremental sales and the rest are replacement sales that sustain our base. Let's move beyond the summary, and let's take a look at some of the new products and technologies we'd like to highlight for you today. This slide summarizes the key product launches we expect in the new -- next decade. Including the annual refresh of products from our breeding program and the new formulations of existing actives from our crop protection program. The products featured here are expected to generate more than EUR 22 billion of the total pipeline peak sales of $30 billion and span every reporting segment. The biotech traits shown here create global licensing opportunities and many are the first in the space for the desired characteristic. Whether it's ThryvOn technology for piercing/sucking insects in cotton, next generations of weed or insect control in soybeans, or Short Stature Corn. And each of these new formulations extends the life and value of existing molecules for the benefit of our customers. While each new hybrid provides a yield advantage over the prior generation, we pride ourselves on leading, not on being the, me, too. With that, I'll hand it over to Mike Graham, our global breeding lead, to begin the breeding highlights.

Mike Graham

executive
#5

Thanks, Bob, and a very good morning to everyone on the call. One of the largest drivers of value in our pipeline is the annual class of corn hybrids that my global team develops. We've compiled the largest and most diverse collection of germplasm, and with our unique tools, we're able to generate leading hybrids for our customers. This translates into the leading position in 5 of the 6 key core markets, and with the advantage our hybrids deliver as compared to previous generation, we expect to grow that lead. In particular, I'd highlight that in 2019, our leading U.S. corn hybrids continue to deliver the 7 to 10-bushel per acre performance advantage compared to our leading competitors and we saw even wider advantages in Brazil and Argentina. Developing a new commercial hybrid requires years of breeding to advance the best products from 1 generation to the next. Since most of our breeding work is done in open field research farms, any adverse weather event can delay product development. As we know from the difficult growing season in the U.S. last year, weather can be one of the biggest challenges of any work that is done in the field. One way to accelerate development time lines and eliminate weather events is by bringing part of the breeding process indoors. In a greenhouse, we can double the number of breeding generations in a year, accelerating product development. Additionally, doing production in a controlled environment allows us to ensure that our researchers have the required seed on time. Our product design center in Marana, Arizona in the United States will be the first of its kind when it comes online next month. This center fully capitalizes on advancement in proprietary seed chipping, advanced marker technology, automation and data science. Innovations like this are helping our breeding organization move from selecting the best seeds to truly designing the best seeds for our farmers. Another way breeding has the potential to fundamentally change agriculture is with Short Stature Corn, where we have made tremendous progress in the last year. Both the breeding and biotechnology approaches to create Short Stature Corn are advancing from Phase 2 to 3. And I am pleased to announce today that we've developed a third pathway to Short Stature Corn through gene editing, which Jeremy will cover in more detail shortly. We've also just launched a commercial beta for the breeding approach in Mexico under the brand name VITALA, and the broader scale breeding approach in Phase 3 will build on this commercial beta. This aerial shot from the Sinaloa region in Mexico is particularly compelling. The plot in the middle is the VITALA hybrid and there is a clear differentiation between it and the commercial checks on either side. While this is very visually striking, the benefits go beyond just height. We believe this product will transform corn production and the benefits can be summarized in 3 categories: reduced crop loss, more precise use of crop protection and the potential to optimize use of key resources like nitrogen, land and water. First, Short Stature Corn improves plant standability, which reduces greensnap and stalk lodging. These are challenging environmental conditions that contribute to significant crop loss in fact, some experts believe that in the United States alone, annual yield loss due to stalk lodging can range from 5% to 25%. Second, we extend in-season crop access due to the shorter stature of the plant. Rather than having to apply insecticide or fungicide late in the season with an airplane, a ground-based rig can be used more cost effectively. Third, the product has the potential to reduce both land and nutrient requirement for crop production, by enabling increased plant density and allowing late season access for nitrogen application. And with advancements in the 3 approaches we now have, we have increased confidence that the potential fit has grown to more than 220 million acres, opening access to markets in Europe and Asia. With that, I'll hand it over to Jeremy to discuss the progress we are making in gene editing and plant biotechnology.

Jeremy Williams

executive
#6

Thanks, Mike. Gene editing is an area of tremendous promise, and we are best positioned to create value in the space, given that these tools build on our leading genomic libraries and trade platforms. The greatest gene editing capability in the world doesn't mean a lot if you don't already have a leading crop lineup to edit and improve. Two of our most exciting agreements are with the Broad Institute and Pairwise Plants. Broad offers us RNA-guided nucleases, which are basically the cutting technologies of CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cpf1. Pairwise Plants offers us access to base editing technology from Harvard, which is the next-generation of editing capability that has the potential to have an enormous impact on the speed and precision with which plant scientists can improve crops. Under the agreement, Pairwise works exclusively with us in corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat and canola. Using these tools, we are starting to see tangible progress. For the first time, we've been able to elicit a short-stature response in corn using only gene editing, as you can see in the photo on this slide. This gives us 3 different approaches to deliver Short Stature Corn, which has the potential to expand the market opportunity. We're also working on other growth and development traits, disease resistance and quality traits. While still early days, gene editing is yet another exciting tool to solve the challenges that growers face. Let's switch to soybeans next and to a product whose commercialization is right around the corner. XtendFlex, the next-generation weed control for soybeans, is advancing to the launch phase and commercial availability will be dependent on regulatory approval timing. This triple stack of glyphosate, dicamba, and glufosinate tolerance is built on the foundation of Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans and has comparable yields. It promises to provide excellent flexibility in weed control, with expectations that the system will control 375 weeds as opposed to 350 for Roundup Ready 2 Xtend and only 260 for Enlist E3 soybeans. Further, with the inclusion of low volatility dicamba in the Roundup Ready Xtend crop system, it is the only weed control system in soybeans to offer 14 days of residual soil activity for the control of weeds not yet emerged at the time of spring. We are expecting the U.S. acres to be limited this spring as is often the case in the first year, but anticipate high demand longer term. Not only did XtendFlex advance this year, but so did our entire herbicide tolerance pipeline in soybeans. Beyond Xtendflex, we have the fourth and fifth generation versions coming in the next decade, and they bring additional herbicide tolerances to provide weed control flexibility. Let's start first with the fourth generation of herbicide tolerance. This project advances to Phase 3, and we are pleased to share for the first time that this will carry the XtendFlex tolerances plus HPPD and 2,4-D tolerance, which we developed in-house. Beyond that, the fifth generation is advancing from Phase 1 to Phase 2. It will offer tolerances to 6 herbicide classes with the addition of PPO herbicides. We are also developing a new herbicide to be used with this trait on a parallel path with Sumitomo. You can see the excellent efficacy of this new herbicide in the photograph on the slide. Technologies like these continue to contribute to our integrated weed management program and this is vitally important for sustained responsible farming. While weed control is critical to growers globally, insect control is also vitally important, particularly in South America. Intacta RR2 PRO soybeans have been widely adopted and we're growing on more than 65 million acres in the 2018-2019 season. This product was a game changer, not only for the direct benefits that the technology provides in terms of yield performance, but also in terms of sustainability. Planting Intacta RR2 PRO soybeans instead of conventional soybeans enables no-till farming and reduces insecticide sprays. This decreases carbon dioxide emissions and water use significantly. This is truly remarkable technology. Intacta 2 Xtend soybeans build on these benefits by providing an additional mode of action for insect control plus dicamba tolerance for weed control. This additional mode of action not only expands the spectrum of insect control, but it enhances resistance management for the primary pest, and we are targeting commercialization next year. Another late-stage project we are excited about will fill an important need in the cotton market. Our ThryvOn technology, a trait for Lygus and Thrip control will be the first ever biotechnology offering for the control of piercing/sucking insects and is expected to launch in 2021. We expect this trait to offer better control and reduce insecticide use with an acre opportunity of more than 10 million acres in the United States. As with nearly all our technologies, we expect to broadly license this trait. These are just a few of the biotechnology projects we're working on, but they illustrate our sustained and unrivaled leadership in this space and will pair nicely with the crop protection solutions we'll share with you next. With that, I'll hand it over to Axel.

Axel Trautwein

executive
#7

Thanks, Jeremy. We continue to make great progress in our small molecule discovery, which allows us to increase the number of development candidates with new modes of action and a higher probability of regulatory success. And this stems from our extensive early safety testing and from the use of differentiating starting points in discovery, which we identified through complementary technologies in biological screening, target-based screening and phenotyping, all of which are fueled by data science driven approaches. Since we established this strategy in 2015, we've seen a doubling of the new small molecule candidates, and I'm excited to share 1 of these with you shortly. Now Bob spoke earlier about the concepts of incremental and disruptive innovation, which is very relevant for small molecules. We have truly disruptive potential in collaborations like Oerth Bio, while having an equal focus on incremental formulation innovation to maintain efficacy and extend the life of our vast portfolio. To illustrate how this works, let's have a look at an example. In this chart, you can see how we rapidly grew fluopyram sales as we expanded its formulations and registrations across crops, spectrum and application methods. This drove an eightfold increase in sales of the molecule since in its initial launch, and we see the potential to double the sales over the next decade. Our technical expertise are high standards for safety and our keen awareness of grower convenience and use preferences has driven our leadership in life cycle management and has defined our approach. Fluopyram is just 1 example of how we sustain our molecules. Another is Fox Xpro, a new soybean fungicide formulation in Brazil that is comprised of 3 active ingredients from 3 different chemical classes. It features excellent control of diseases like Asian Soybean Rust, which can be devastating in soybeans in South America. In fact, Fox Xpro was recently recognized as the Best Formulation Innovation in industry-wide AGROW Awards because of its performance and its ability to minimize environmental impact by reducing off-target losses. We enjoy our leading position in soybean fungicides today and expect that to continue with Fox Xpro, which has the potential to achieve EUR 600 million in annual sales. And coming right behind it in Phase 4 is the next-generation Fox Supra, which includes Indiflin in the formulation. Now let's move beyond formulations to new molecules, which is a particularly exciting area. I'd like to begin with iblon, a novel new fungicide for the use in cereals. It demonstrates the most reliable control of all relevant diseases in wheat, and it exceeded the commercial standards more than 80% of the time. We plan to launch in New Zealand in 2020 and then expand to Europe and several other regions. Overall, we expect the product to deliver peak sales of greater than EUR 400 million. The next product I'd like to share with you is also based on a new molecule and provides us with the opportunity to meet our customers' needs in Asia. With peak sales potential of more than EUR 300 million, tetraniliprole, brand name of which is Vayego, is a new broad-spectrum insecticide that is aimed primarily at our Asia Pacific market, with an initial launch in Korea this past year. As with many of our other actives, we expect the list of geographies it's serving to expand significantly, with up to 17 launches planned in 2020 and 2021. Vayego, or its seed treatment form which is known as Reatis, is quite versatile. It provides broad-spectrum control of caterpillars, certain beetles and sucking pests and can be used in many crops and has several application methods. Now I'll close the crop protection highlights with a molecule that just advanced to Phase 2 of our R&D pipeline, and it is the first new post-emergent mode of action for broad acre weed control in 30 years, which is particularly exciting. It's a very tangible example of our commitment to invest more than EUR 5 billion in new methods of weed control over the next decade. The reason why it's so beneficial is that it offers very effective post-emergence control of tough grasses that have shown resistance to glyphosate. Additionally, our discovery program in biotechnology is focused on developing a herbicide tolerance trait to pair with the molecule, and we already have some approaches under evaluation. With that, I'll turn it over to Sam, our Chief Science Officer at Climate to share some highlights from our digital pipeline.

Sam Eathington

executive
#8

Well, thanks, Axel. As we start to draw today's update to a close, it's fitting that we end with an update on our Climate FieldView platform because the digital space is where all this technology converges. FieldView offers our customers opportunities for new insights and new ways to optimize our leading portfolio more effectively on farm. Today, FieldView is the clear digital platform leader, with more than 95 million paid acres. We exceeded our paid acre target for 2019, even in the face of significant agronomic challenges in the U.S., and with more than 1 billion acres of potential in crops like wheat, soybeans and corn, we're just scratching the surface. As further endorsement, the number of platform partners is now close to 70, allowing us to bring even more services to our grower customers. This leadership in paid acres represents more than just a statistic. It enables a core competitive advantage. We make it easy for growers to connect their acres and capture data from planters, sprayers and combines. More data translates into better informed models, which leads to improved recommendations for growers. These recommendations improve as we get new data each season. To quantify our pace, the first 10 million connected hours of data took about 32 months to collect. While the second 10 million hours of data took only 9 months, a remarkable acceleration of our new platform. Now let's look at a product that has been enhanced by the data we have been collecting, our Seed Advisor. This tool is designed to help farmers place the right corn seed, in the right field and at the right planting density. We've been testing Seed Advisor for a few years, and our proprietary algorithms utilize data from FieldView, combined with our extensive plant breeding data. In fact, more than 6 million data points from more than 7,700 hybrids have fueled the advisor. What we found through our on-farm testing is that use of the tool is improving corn yields by 6 to 9 bushels per acre across multiple years and locations. For the 2020 season, we intend to increase the use -- increase the acres using Seed Advisor in the U.S. and are planning a beta launch of a similar tool in soybeans, closer to the middle of the decade. Next, I'd like to highlight our advanced Seed Scripting tool, which is already commercial in the U.S. and just advanced to Phase 3 for both Argentina and Europe. This tool provides planting density recommendations and variable rate planning scripts in corn. We've seen a yield benefit of more than 3 bushels per acre from use of the tool in Brazil and have planned a beta launch in Brazil, Argentina and Europe in 2021. These are just a few examples of the more than 35 projects and models under development at Climate today, but they highlight how digital tools can be used in conjunction with the other products in our portfolio to improve their performance. With that, I'll pass it back to Bob to close.

Bob Reiter

executive
#9

Sam, thank you. And thanks to the entire team. Before we summarize, I wanted to pause and reflect on why our investment in innovation is so important. At the end of the day, it's all about growers and meeting their needs on the farm, all-season long. From the time they plant their seed until they harvest their crop, we are with them every step of the way. We have a long history of converting R&D into viable, value-added solutions for growers that enhance productivity and reduce the use of inputs necessary to produce a crop. You can see that from the leading positions we have established to date and the growth of our pipeline builds on that strong foundation. If we do that, we leave more land to support biodiversity, conserve more carbon and reduce the overall environmental impact of agriculture. Our customers win, the planet wins and we win. We've covered a lot here today, and it's only a fraction of what's to come. Truth is, there are more than 100 projects, thousands of hybrids and varieties and more than 100 formulations in development here at Bayer Crop Science. We don't simply have the largest pipeline in the industry, it's the most productive and comprehensive. Each project has a place and purpose, serving unmet needs and imagining better ways to farm. Our team is hard at work discovering disruptive innovation, improving the products, making a difference today and delivering on our promise to shape the future of agriculture. Thanks for joining us on today's call, and we look forward to sharing more with you in the year ahead. And with that, I'll pass it back to Oliver for Q&A.

O. Maier

executive
#10

Great, thank you very much, Bob. Very much appreciated. Thanks, everybody, actually, for all your comments and remarks. As always, to allow for as many people to ask questions as possible, we ask to limit your questions to 2 per person. And with that, Emma, I think you may open up the lines for questions, please.

Operator

operator
#11

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews

analyst
#12

First, a question on the addition of the gene-editing path for Short Stature Corn. One of the talks about gene editing is that it's supposed to be able to move through pipelines faster, both in terms of the science aspect, but also the regulatory aspect. Could you give us a sense of -- at a rough high level, sort of how fast you think that product could move through the pipeline versus the other -- versus the biotech route?

Bob Reiter

executive
#13

Sure, Vincent. Yes. I -- we do believe that we can move products in gene editing more quickly. Obviously, it will depend on which geography because, of course, if we have to have complete incorporation of other trait packages for the grower, then we're obviously going to have to match against that time line for our trait packages. But in other types of geographies, I do think there's an opportunity to accelerate, depending on what kind of a gene edit we're making. Maybe I can have Jeremy comment a little further on where we're at with our gene-edited version and kind of how we see that.

Jeremy Williams

executive
#14

Yes. Thanks, Bob. So this is -- that's a great question. Although early days, we're really excited by the potential of gene editing to allow us to take this technology into more market segments. To the question you asked, I think one of the advantages we see is a more streamlined and efficient discovery in early development process that we think can take some of the time off the early phases of getting the actual event off to regulatory handoff and then if -- depending on how the regulatory system evolves, one could contemplate a system where perhaps the hurdles are lower in most geographies for gene-edited crops. But as Bob says, this does depend on all of the major regulatory agencies. So it's still early days there. But I'd say overall, we're really excited about the ability to have this technology accelerate, at the very least, the discovery and development phases of advancing something as transformational as Short Stature Corn.

Vincent Andrews

analyst
#15

If I could just add a follow-up on XtendFlex soybeans. Just looking at Slide 19 here, where you talk about the increased spectrum of control from 350 to 375 weeds. Just trying to understand the value proposition of XtendFlex versus the basic Xtend, I guess, as well as Enlist. And maybe you could talk about the prevalence of those incremental 25 weeds that you provide in control against in the key geographies as well as what the farmer is spending today, presumably on a crop chemical solution to control those weeds?

Bob Reiter

executive
#16

Yes, Vince, and maybe I'll start, and then I'll hand it over to Axel, just to kind of talk a little bit from a weed resistance management perspective. But obviously, we see this as a product fit across all of the North American market. And given that, depending on the individual conditions for different growers and also their weed control preferences in terms of how they're using weed control packages, we expect growers to kind of use these various options differently. So the more options by having these 3 modes of action, gives them more flexibility and allows them to do chemistry rotations, other weed management practices to kind of manage resistance. Maybe, Axel, you can comment just real briefly on kind of the advantages of having that extra control over additional weeds.

Axel Trautwein

executive
#17

Yes, exactly, just like Bob said, we're doing this to offer additional solutions and complementary modes of action, which helps growers to have different offers and basically combat weed resistance development. And dicamba offers different opportunities compared to glyphosate because it controls weeds that glyphosate actually does not control. And we actually also -- use this as input for our early discovery process where we regularly monitor field samples and look for mutations in weed species in order to find new modes of action and to complement that offering even further in the future.

Operator

operator
#18

The next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

Steve Byrne

analyst
#19

I wanted to ask a question about your vegetable seed business, which doesn't seem to get much exposure. You have this expertise in gene editing, one of the other advantages is it avoids the GMO label stigma. Do you have any update on the use of this technology to advance your vegetable seed business?

Bob Reiter

executive
#20

Well, Steve, we've been obviously looking at gene editing, given the qualitative nature of many of the products and the attributes that you want to bring to vegetable growers. Gene editing is a natural to think about. I think what we're also though looking at is, is the overall regulatory environment right now, particularly in Europe, where we have a very large presence, and the complexity of making gene edits, and then also, at the same time, wanting to see your germplasm flow on a global basis. So we're kind of looking at that balance and trying to make a decision on how that should all kind of pull together. Maybe I'll let Jeremy comment a little bit on kind of where we see sort of gene editing and vegetable stand from a technical perspective and kind of how we can anticipate it.

Jeremy Williams

executive
#21

Yes. So I mean, great question there. There are lots of opportunities. And I think if you think about the complex regulatory situation currently, one area we've been looking at, in particular, is in sort of protective culture, sort of vertical farming types of segments where you might have the ability to keep gene edits out of general commodity flow, and where you can imagine using the technology to do things like improve the ability to work with artificial light, modify architecture. Those are some of the things that you can imagine using to accelerate and complement breeding, particularly for these sorts of high-value segments as the regulatory climate evolves. I mean, the good news is I think we're seeing lots of positive development around the world with respect to how gene editing is likely to be regulated, but there's still some key major geographies that need to have further advances before I think you could fully leverage the technology broadly in open settings. But I think you do have in the nearer term, some of these vertical segments that would be very attractive.

Steve Byrne

analyst
#22

And then I just wanted to ask about your corn Seed Advisor. When you look at that platform going forward, do you see that yield bump that you can provide growers as primarily a mechanism to drive market share gains in your corn seed platform? Or do you see it as a potential revenue generator to share in that revenue gain?

Bob Reiter

executive
#23

Yes, I'll pass it to Sam, and he could talk in a little bit more detail on your question, Steve.

Sam Eathington

executive
#24

Yes. Thanks, Steve. Actually, I would say we see it at both ways. One is, if -- obviously, if we can continue to see increased yields of 6 to 9 bushels per acre on our products, that's a great way for us to think about how to optimal place them, which really should help us think about our market share. And of course, we'd still look at mechanisms of how we share in that revenue with our customers. And this year, we had a few pilots out there testing some new business models to look at that. So I think both of them are in play. And today, the digital space is so early, and we're really still figuring out the best way to bring this technology and value to the marketplace.

Operator

operator
#25

The next question comes from the line of Tony Jones with Redburn.

Tony Jones

analyst
#26

Tony Jones, Redburn in London. I've got two. So firstly, the number of pipeline advances looks to be much higher than we've seen from Monsanto and Bayer on a stand-alone basis. And I know that you called out earlier scale in terms of molecule discovery. But is there something else going on? Is it just an innovation cycle effect? Or are we seeing merger benefits starting to come through there? And then secondly, on XtendFlex, any indication of what the price premium will be, maybe '20, '21, '22, above the current market price range for regular Xtend?

Bob Reiter

executive
#27

So I'll go ahead and I'll take the first piece on the pipeline. If you look at our pipeline numbers, they obviously fluctuate year-to-year because we report out on phase advancements. So as we mentioned, we have a huge number of projects in our portfolio. And so advancements sort of can ebb and flow a little bit. Plus, I think, given the comprehensive nature of our portfolio, given that we're covering such an array compared to our competitors, we have a large number. So what's exciting to me though is, is I think, this year, we've got some really quality advancements on some very key products for the market. And I think that for me is really the highlight for this year. Maybe I'll pass it to Liam on the second question.

Liam Condon

executive
#28

Yes. Thanks, Tony. So on pricing, we haven't finalized the pricing yet for Xtendflex coming to market. But you can be assured that we'll be looking for a premium price, of course, for this type of innovation. And I guess, you can take a hint from what we've already seen from the cotton market, where we've had, I think, an outstanding success with Xtendflex in cotton.

Operator

operator
#29

Ms. Hancock, your line's open.

Lucy Hancock;AB Bernstein;SVP

analyst
#30

My question was regarding Nemastrike. We understand that you announced to customers this year that you would not be offering this technology in 2020. We just wondered if you had any update for us on that, on what you would do going forward?

Bob Reiter

executive
#31

Yes. So our technical teams are continuing to work on the formulation so that we would have potentially opportunity to relaunch the product in the following years, and really have what we want to have as the desired experience with our growers. So we're continuing to work on the formulation side of it. And as you said, this year we don't intend to have sale of Nemastrike in the market. So that's where we're at.

Operator

operator
#32

The next question comes from the line of Keyur Parekh with Goldman Sachs.

Keyur Parekh

analyst
#33

It's Keyur Parekh from Goldman Sachs. Two questions, please. The first one is kind of how do you guys think about this 45% kind of incremental sale capture as you were talking about in the context of, kind of the changing pricing models? You're thinking about bundling seeds, chem, precision ag, kind of so how should we think about how that kind of all plays out from a commercial perspective in the mid to long term? That's kind of question number one. And then question number two, kind of would be great to hear some of your thoughts on what -- how you think the world kind of planting kind of changes over the next 10, 15, 20 years, as kind of people's eating habit change, and things like less meat, more kind of vegetables. What do you think that means kind of as it relates to the shape or the kind of picture of world planting? And what does that mean relative to your business?

Bob Reiter

executive
#34

Okay. Thanks a lot for the questions. So on the 45% incremental, and the way we think about this is, about half of what we have in the pipeline, we're estimating is going to be replacement sales. And this is really important for us, that we're continuing to refresh the pipeline. But it's not all incremental, of course, but it helps maintain that we can keep or build our market share. And then, of course, we have the incremental part of the pipeline. And the way we map this out over time, we have pretty precise models to do this. We have very different life cycles per product. We have some products that can reach life cycle peak like after 40 years, and we have some products that reach a peak after 3 or 4 years. I guess, an average that you could take for peak sales is in the ballpark of 12 years. So just to give you a sense of what we're talking about, but very different by molecule, by product, by product segment. And again, half of this is on top our incremental sales. On the question of how the world will change over time, in ag and on the shift to plant protein. We're actually quite excited about the increasing interest now in plant protein, and particularly in how agriculture has performed because a lot more people, consumers are interested in how farming is done. And they want to know that's done in a sustainable manner, which is a core competence of us. And we're actually, if you step back, we're probably the world's largest plant protein company. If you look at our market share in soybeans and corn, we are the #1. We would assume over time that there's going to be a decrease in per capita consumption of meat, so if today per capita consumption is maybe 42 kilograms per capita, this is going to decrease a bit over time. But at the same time, the population is going to increase by probably 50% over the next decades. So net-net, there is going to be an increase still in demand for meat, which is heavily in protein, which is heavily driven by Asia. This isn't necessarily driven by the Western world. This is largely driven by Asia. So we see increasing demand for both meat and with that, feed, but also for plant protein. We think with our product portfolio, we are very well positioned to tap into that growing potential.

Operator

operator
#35

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Christian Faitz with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Christian Faitz

analyst
#36

Two questions, please. First of all, Short Stature Corn. Am I right in assuming that Short Stature Corn still comes out of the BASF Corporation with Monsanto? And if so, is it correct that BASF would fetch a good part of the profit pie eventually? Then second question, on your insecticide pipeline, is there any new mode of action plan for the European market anytime soon after the ban of the neonics?

Bob Reiter

executive
#37

So let me start with the first question. So Short Stature Corn, the biotechnology version. So one of the versions we're working on is a joint collaboration with BASF. And there is a value share component to obviously that because that's a collaboration effort. And so they would obviously be a beneficiary as we commercialize that product in the future. I will turn it over to Axel, and he can maybe comment on what -- how the pipeline looks in insecticides. And overall, maybe the situation for European insecticides.

Axel Trautwein

executive
#38

Okay. Thanks, Bob, and thanks, Christian, for the question. Happy to take that. So yes, we are, of course, continuing to innovate and look for new insecticides, and especially with our focus on early safety testing and new modes of action and discovery, we want to find molecules also for the European market. So specifically on your question on neonics, I mean, 5 years ago, we launched Sivanto, which is not a neonic, it is a bee-friendly insecticide. That's a very prominent example of our recent launches. In our pipeline, I mentioned Vayego which is mainly for the Asian market, also very bee-friendly and IPM-suited. But now, especially in our pipeline we have in the mid-stage Phase 3 pipeline, we have a sucking pest insecticide, which is very promising. And we have in our early development pipeline, a new acaricide with also a new mode of action, completely new to the market. And we just recently also introduced a biological flipper for pest control. So we are continuing with all technologies to look also for new insecticides. And also, I cannot disclose any details on that, but in our research pipeline, we also have promising leads for new candidates, which we also believe can make it to the European market, and we -- focusing there on, especially on the safety aspect and the regulatory aspect.

Operator

operator
#39

The next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

P.J. Juvekar

analyst
#40

Question on Short Stature Corn. You're trying to get there through 3 different modes of action. Do you know which mode will yield better than -- would yield better? And secondly, are these 3 modes working synergistically with each other? And then lastly, is there a benefit from lower fertilizer application here because the corn is shorter?

Bob Reiter

executive
#41

Yes, I'll take the very first piece, and then I'll hand it over to Jeremy to kind of talk about the, maybe the nuances of the various technologies. Short Stature corn, by its very description, what we've done is we've made a modification to the plant to make it shorter. That by default doesn't make it yield more or less, it just makes the crop shorter. Having said that, I think, given the change in architecture of the crop, it opens up some new opportunities in terms of not just by default, what we see is less crop loss because of course, the standability of the crop has improved, as Mike mentioned earlier, but also the new architecture, we think, opens up an opportunity for higher plant densities. And also, when you couple that with our breeding engine and taking advantage of breeding specifically against that architecture, we see that we can potentially drive yields in -- potentially an unprecedented way against that type of plant architecture. But as it stands by default, making the plant shorter doesn't change its yield, per se. I'll hand it over to Jeremy, because there are some nuances in terms of why we're -- have 3 different approaches, and they all are a little bit different from each other, even though they all kind of look the same if you just give a quick eye in the field.

Jeremy Williams

executive
#42

Correct. And on the nitrogen question that you asked, the Short Stature Corn, as far as we can tell, does not change how the plant utilizes nitrogen, but it will allow you, because you can have more easy access to more precisely manage how you apply nitrogen. On the question of the nuance between the different approaches, there are differences technically that we think will allow us to transfer the technology to different parts of our germplasm pool with different levels of efficiency. We think there might also be subtle differences in the height that could allow us to position the product differently in different segments. But this is still early days. We are comparing in the field. We're looking at the sort of the more fine detail differences between the technologies. And the way I think about it, this gives us more opportunity to fill a broader segment of the market ultimately, right? It gives you the ability to actually deploy the technology more efficiently, but it's still very early in terms of understanding how exactly they are complementary and how best to utilize them long term.

Bob Reiter

executive
#43

And maybe I'll also have Mike, maybe add a little comment as well. We just had our first commercial beta in Mexico, and he could talk a little bit about kind of what we want to learn and also kind of where he sees it as leading the breeding organization on this important platform.

Mike Graham

executive
#44

Yes, thanks Bob, and P. J., just a great question, and obviously, an area that we're very excited about. So in Mexico, as I mentioned, we just launched a beta of this product concept. And we launched it in an area of Sinaloa, which is about 1 million acres. And the experience so far, and we've been working with our customers for, really a number of years, just understanding how they view the product and getting feedback from them, has been very positive. And so as we've thought about this approach and not only combining the stature, but also with all the technology that we've discussed, we see it as a very unique way to drive productivity in a way that we just haven't done in the past as you combine all these technologies. So lots of excitement. We're learning a lot from the POC or the beta that we have in place in Mexico, and very excited to see the results coming out of them.

P.J. Juvekar

analyst
#45

Great. And then my second question is on your multiple soybean herbicide traits. You're going from 3 traits to 5 to 6. If you take a step back and look at your Roundup experience. Over time, it will develop resistance, and now we are up to more than 47 weeks that have resistance to Roundup. And clearly, here, you're trying to stay 1 step ahead of this resistance. So how do you balance that, staying ahead versus weeds developing resistance to different herbicides?

Bob Reiter

executive
#46

Yes. Well, I think you hit on it. So first of all, obviously, in some ways it can be a race. But it's also an opportunity, I think, by providing more modes of action and more choice to growers. And I would say, better appreciation for the importance of weed management and the toolbox overall because it isn't even all just about using the chemistries that provide over-the-top through traits, right? We have -- that's, I think, one of the beauties of being there is that we have this broad, selected portfolio as well, which really, I think, gives us a very comprehensive way of helping growers manage against what is an inevitability, which is biology likes to survive. And resistance is an inevitability in biology, whether it's weed control, insects, whatever the pest. And so I think what's different now is that we, through our knowledge base and our learnings and our capacity and capability. Look, you could see we're bringing new trait innovation in weed control virtually every 4 or 5 years. You've got to remember, when we went from to Roundup Ready 1 to Xtend, that was a significantly longer time frame. And I think that's a testament to our capacity and capabilities. And now, like I said, I'm super excited because we've got these new chemistry classes coming, and that opens up the opportunity to bring these new chemistries and have them be part potentially of trait packages in the future for growers as well. So that opens up even more choice and more ways to manage the problem.

Mike Graham

executive
#47

And really a key thing about how these chemistries and traits are selected is to ensure that they're complementary in terms of the control of nonresistant weeds. And so one of the things about having these 6 opportunities for controlling weeds is not just about the number, but it's the fact that they actually work in a complementary fashion to sort of cover off deficiencies in each of them, right? And so what you're looking at as a system is something that's actually much more robust than what we had in the early days of herbicide tolerant technology.

Operator

operator
#48

The next question comes from the line of Falko Friedrichs with Deutsche Bank.

Falko Friedrichs

analyst
#49

It's Falko Friedrichs from Deutsche Bank, and I would have 2 questions, please. Firstly, can you share some more color on the new herbicide molecule that you have in early development? And how that fits in regards to potentially replacing glyphosate? Or does it have a very different place? Then secondly, on your FieldView platform, and what have been the main advances since you presented it in great detail at your Capital Markets Day last year?

Bob Reiter

executive
#50

Sure. So I'll just pass it immediately over to Axel to talk about our new mode of action in herbicides. And then, Axel, if you could just pass it over to Sam right after that.

Axel Trautwein

executive
#51

Okay. Thanks for the question. Yes, let me restate, this is a really exciting new molecule because it's a new mode of action for post-emergence treatment in broad acre weed control. And this is part of our strategy to offer farmers additional complementary solutions and part of our strategy to invest EUR 5 billion over the next decade into weed management solutions. And we continue to believe that glyphosate, over the years to come, will continue to provide value and will be a very important tool for growers, but we need additional modes of actions of, as Bob mentioned earlier, to rotate and they have complementary, actually profiles. For example, this new mode of action is active against certain grasses that are resistant to glyphosate. And such as Jeremy said, contributes to providing a much more stable system to growers. And it's also a nice example of our strategy to focus on new modes of action and save molecules. And I give it to Sam to add to that.

Sam Eathington

executive
#52

Yes. Thanks, Axel. So on the FieldView platform, I'd characterize it in a couple of buckets. One is, we expanded the number of countries that our product is in, so we've got more of a global reach where farmers can use this technology to collect their data. Two, as I mentioned, we got to more than 95 million paid acres this year. So last year, we were on about 60 million paid acres, another great growth in our product being utilized by farmers. And then in the real value, new creation opportunity, of course, Seed Advisor which I talked about, we commercially launched that this last year and tested it out there in a beta. Had a great experience from the growers with that and the product began, demonstrated its ability to increase productivity. And then our Seed Scripting tool, which was commercial in the U.S., we've now gone ahead and done betas in South America and Europe this coming year. So really a lot of advancement in both the platform being utilized and new value creation tools getting out to our customers.

Jeremy Williams

executive
#53

And I'd probably add, Sam, the -- just the intangibles as well, as we continue to expand the footprint of the platform, right? This gives us more intimacy with our customers, with our sales organization and an opportunity to also take advantage of something that others may look at as a threat. But we look at as an opportunity, which is transparency of performance, and how the FieldView platform really allows growers to see the differentiation between our products and others. And the net of that is, is that we've seen that, that helps us in terms of our overall capacity in showing customers that we have the best portfolio and the best products in the market.

Operator

operator
#54

The next question comes from the line of Dominic Lunn with Credit Suisse.

Dominic Lunn

analyst
#55

Dominic Lunn from Credit Suisse. So going forwards, do you think the balance between your own sales and traits licensing will stay broadly the same? Or do you think that your new traits will be so unique that the high-margin traits royalty income could rise faster? And then secondly, on the prescription service and the adoption of the higher value-added services, can you give us an idea of the sort of time lines when you think the customers could share in the upside of the high yields that you mentioned at the Capital Markets Day?

Liam Condon

executive
#56

Yes, thanks a lot, Dominic. So we don't break out individually our trait revenue line. But I think if you look at overall, our -- the pipeline that we have, that we've announced today and giving you a lot of detail on, I think, it's fair to expect that this will continue to be a major source of income for us from a balance point of view. I don't expect any major up or down, where we're going to continue to innovate. This has always been an important part of our revenue stream, in the future will continue to be an important part, because we will continue to innovate, and we will continue to get paid for that innovation. So we don't expect a major increase or decrease, but it's built around our ability to continue to innovate, which I hope you've gotten a better sense for with the pipeline review today. And on the second question, I'd hand it over to Sam.

Sam Eathington

executive
#57

Yes. So the way I'd characterize it this year in 2019, we did a pilot out there with our Seed Advisor tool in the United States in corn. And we combined it with a new business model opportunity with our customers. The pilot where we are testing both the efficacy of our Seed Advisor tool and how to operate a new business model, where we would help the grower share in the risk downside, but also has to be -- the opportunity to share in the upside on those models. And in 2019, even though it was a tough year, we really had a lot of learnings and it was a great experience for our customers. We've taken those learnings and put them into a new pilot in 2020, where we're expanding the number of acres, and we continue to see growers quite interested in, help me share in the risk of farming and be willing to share in the upside if we can deliver more value. So still early days. A lot we're learning. We're in a pilot phase. But initial year looked good, and we're expanding it in 2020.

Operator

operator
#58

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Maier, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with any other points you wish to raise.

O. Maier

executive
#59

Great. Thank you very much, Emma, and thanks to everyone joining us today. We very much appreciate it, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 earnings call on February 27. Thanks, everybody.

Operator

operator
#60

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Bayer Crop Science R&D Pipeline Update. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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