BBGI Global Infrastructure S.A. (BBGI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 29, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood afternoon, and welcome to the BBGI Global Infrastructure Interim Results Investor presentation. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll. And I would now like to hand you over to CEO, Duncan Ball. Good afternoon to you.
Duncan Ball
executiveThank you. My name is Duncan Ball, and I'm the CEO of BBGI Global Infrastructure. I'm joined here with our CFO, Michael Denny. We're pleased to share with you the H1 results for the company. And I will start with the slides, and I'll try to go through them quickly, and we've got some time at the end for questions that have been submitted online. So as a quick reminder, our investment approach is centered on 4 key attributes: low-risk, internally managed, globally diversified and strong approach -- ESG approach. And what do I mean by low risk? It means that our investments are 100% availability-style in investments. So these are investments in core infrastructure and availability means, if they're available for use, we get paid. So we're getting paid by public sector counterparties. The results are that the cash flows are stable, predictable with a high-quality inflation linkage. Number 2 is we're internally managed, and that means we are the only infrastructure company with in-house management team. That means there's no external manager, both myself and Michael work for the company, not for an external manager providing services to the fund. We're focused on delivering shareholder value, and we're not focused on growth in AUM. We also are owners of the company as well. 100% of our Board and 87% of our employees or shareholders. So we very much act like owners and are aligned with shareholders in that regard. Global diversification is another pillar. So we're focused on AA and AAA-rated countries, which provide a very stable and well-developed operating environment. And the fourth pillar is a strong ESG approach. So sustainability and ESG is integrated into all parts of our business model. Our portfolio delivers strong social impact and is considered an Article 8 firm under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation because we're delivering social benefits through our investments. Additionally, our portfolio has been significantly reviewed and we have a high degree of climate resilience. So that means that our portfolio is well positioned for the future. Just touching on the financial highlights. It was another period of predictable performance. During the period, we delivered a 2.4% NAV total return. We're offering a very attractive dividend yield based on today's current share price. The dividend yield is about 6.2%. We grew the dividend last year by 6%. We're hoping to do the same this year, 6%. And we expect the dividend to grow by 2% in 2025. The inflation linkage from the portfolio is 0.5%, so it's -- and its high-quality inflation linkage and it's contracted, so it's very mechanical. The dividend is well covered at 1.47x. The annualized total net asset value return since IPO has been 8.5%, and our ongoing charge is the lowest in the sector at 90 basis points. This slide talks about our operating model, and there's really 3 core principles to our business. It's value-driven asset management, its prudent financial management, and it's a selective acquisition strategy. In terms of value-driven active management, our portfolio consists of 56 core infrastructure assets, and they all performed well during the period. We continue to have high levels of availability across our portfolio. It was 99.9%, and that keeps -- that helps deliver happy customers when the portfolio is performing well, you tend to have happy clients. There's no lockups, no defaults, all the assets are performing well. The prudent financial management, we had a revolving credit facility an RCF, we fully paid that. So there's no drawings outstanding on that. So we're very comfortable with our balance sheet. All our assets are financed on a nonrecourse basis and 55 of the 56 assets have no refinancing obligation. We have one asset where there's a tranche of debt that has to be refinanced that's well underway. It doesn't come up until fall of next year, and we're advanced in the process, and we don't see any issue there. The markets that we're dependent on for that, there's lots of interest, and we're making good progress. So very prudently managed balance sheet and income statement, and we're very comfortable with our -- how we're structured. And then the third platform or pillar is the selective acquisition strategy. We apply a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Any new acquisition is considered against buying back shares or other uses of capital. And we've looked at a lot of opportunities, but we haven't bought anything. And that's consistent with most periods, we look at far, far more opportunities than we ever execute on. So we're very selective in what we do. Just to highlight here, we're the only infrastructure investment company, which is internally managed, and we think this is a key benefit. It means there's no external manager. All the staff are employed by BBGI directly. We have a very experienced team. The team is fully aligned with the interest of our shareholders. 100% of our supervisory board, 100% of our management board and 87% of our employees are shareholders. So that really -- it sets the tone. We put our capital where our conviction is. So we're acting like owners every day. The ongoing charge is 90 basis points, and we don't engage in any other activity. So we're not distracted by other mandates or doing -- managing money for other parties. We wake up every day focused on our portfolio and delivering value for our clients and our shareholders. We're very much a specialist infrastructure company. As mentioned, ownership mindset with skin in the game is very important to us. The average team member has over 20 years of experience. There's -- our team members are spread across 8 different countries. Below are the BBGI people, we employ subcontractors to do some of the day-to-day management of the assets. And so there's over 2,000 people employed there. And our focus is really on value preservation, hands-on active management and trying to get value enhancements to make these assets better for our clients and for our shareholders. As mentioned previously, we have a 99.9% availability rate during the period. And we have a Net Promoter Score of 56, which is a very high score. It's top quartile. If you're not familiar with Net Promoter Score, the maximum score is 100, the minimum score is minus 100, so 56 -- it's not like 56 out of 100. It's a testament of good performance and high client satisfaction. And our belief is that if we have public sector clients who are happy that just makes life so much easier. It helps us deliver the services to the level they expect and a happy client results in strong asset performance. We have a disciplined approach to capital allocation. In recent periods, we benefited from higher inflation, and we've earned more on our -- on the cash we hold in the project companies on -- we've earned more on deposit. So that has benefited us. And what have we done with that? Well, we've -- we paid it out to shareholders through increased dividends. So we increased the dividend by 6% last year. We're increasing the dividend by 6% again this year, and we're forecasting to increase the dividend in the future by 2%. We've used the excess cash to pay down our revolving credit facility. So we have no drawings at the current time. As we move forward, we will consider new opportunities, but we'll also consider the -- one of the options we consider every day is buying back shares, as an -- but the priority was to pay down debt first and now we're in the envious position of having surplus cash flow. So we'll make informed decisions against that. And it makes sense that any investment decisions are measured against alternatives, especially a share buyback if we're trading at a discount. This slide shows our record regarding NAV growth and dividend growth. So we've grown the dividend continuously. We've had strong dividend growth, but we've also had strong NAV growth. So over the last 12 years, the accumulated NAV and dividends per share adds up to $227. So that means had you bought the shares for 97p in 2011, your return would have been $227, and the NAV has always grown -- the NAV and dividends together, we've always grown on a year-on-year basis. The total NAV return since IPO is 177% or 8.5% on an annualized basis. And the AIC has recognized us as the next dividend -- next-generation dividend hero. The dividend hero is a company that's consistently increased dividends for 20 years or more. Given we IPO-ed in 2011, we don't -- we haven't met the criteria for 20 years of dividend growth, but we certainly had a long track record of dividend growth. And so we're considered a next-generation dividend hero. And I think it's particularly relevant given that during COVID, there were over 400 listed companies on the London Stock Exchange that either cut or curtail dividends. So we're very proud of our track record of increasing dividends and NAV each year. This slide is a bit of a collage of some of the assets that we would have in our portfolio. So I'll try to run you through it very quickly and give you a snapshot of what makes up our portfolio. So we have 19 roads and bridges. We have one fully electric public transit line. We have 41 essential health care facilities. We have 4 police stations, 26 fire stations, 4 modern correctional facilities, 33 colleges and schools, 3 affordable residential housing facilities, 2 community centers, a hydro-generating station and 2 public administration buildings. Our hospitals serve over 4 million patients a year and have 2,400 beds. Our fire stations, as an example, provide protection and safety to over 800,000 people. Our roads include 2,800 kilometers of laneways and provide reliable transportation and reduce travel times for about 290 million vehicles per year. And our hydroelectric power station provides clean energy and reliable energy to over 80,000 homes. This slide demonstrates the strengths of our portfolio. So we're 100% invested in low-risk core infrastructure assets. They're all availability-style. 100% of our portfolio is currently operational. In the past, we've had some construction. We completed the construction. We're not adverse to having some assets in construction. But currently, the portfolio is 100% operational. We're geographically diversified. So our largest exposure is in Canada at 35%, but we're also in the U.K. at 33%, Continental Europe is 13%. U.S. stands at 10%, and Australia is 9%. So we're well diversified by country. We're focused on AA and AAA-rated countries. And we have a socially impactful portfolio with a balanced exposure. The biggest sector is transport. We like roads and bridges. There's fewer moving parts on roads and bridges, so they tend to be fairly straightforward. But we also have health care, civic infrastructure, education, affordable housing and clean energy. Again, flipping, this slide shows the top 10 investments. What you'll see is that the top 10 constitute 48% of our portfolio. No one asset has undue concentration. Our largest assets are -- we've got one that's 11% and another that's 10%, but you see the typical asset size is under 4%, and we've got lots of assets. So it's a collection of well-diversified core infrastructure assets across different geographies, all delivering core infrastructure types of assets people use every day. This slide talks about the 2 types of what we've started to do is we've started to break down and distinguish between our concession assets and our nonconcession assets. So concession assets are typically public private partnerships. In the U.K., they've been called PFI, Public Finance Initiative. And in those investments, you make the investment and you provide the asset and you get paid over a finite period of time. And at the end of the concession, the asset reverts to government. So those -- that makes up the vast majority of our portfolio, but we also have 6% where we have concessions, but we own the underlying assets. So typically, these are assets with their primary health care facilities. And in those ones, we actually own the dirt and the real estate. And at the end of the concession period, we have the opportunity to re-lease it and continue to have cash flows well into the future. So the weighted average remaining asset life across our portfolio is 22.8 years. With that, I'll pause and turn it over to Michael and Michael will walk you through the valuation slides.
Michael Denny
executiveThank you, Duncan. So I'll just start by saying that the valuation process and methodology that's applied by BBGI is unchanged since our IPO, where the Management Board supported by the internal valuation team develops the valuation using a discounted cash flow methodology. And the resulting valuation is then reviewed by both our external valuation expert and also by our external -- company's external auditors, PwC. So during the period, our NAV per share has experienced a modest decline of 0.3%, moving from 147.8p per share to 147.4p. And there were a few notable contributors to this movement. In April, we paid a second interim dividend for 2023 of 3.965p per share, which reduced the NAV per share by 4p. The NAV return contributed 4.3p per share, driven largely by the unwinding of the discount rate, portfolio performance, updated operating assumptions and the changes in working capital. The discount rate itself has remained unchanged at 7.3%, and there was a modest gain of 0.3p per share from macroeconomic assumptions, mainly due to the adjustment in short- and long-term deposit rates. Foreign exchange again has acted as a headwind, resulting in a 1p per share reduction in NAV with a -- all currencies with the exception of the U.S. dollar weakening against the pound over the reporting period. So as a result, the NAV per share closed out at 147.4p at the end of the period. Let's turn to the next slide. So on this slide, where we illustrate the weighted average discount rate used since IPO, along with the allocation between the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium. So for the June '24 valuation, we have applied a weighted average discount rate of 7.3%, which remains unchanged from the rate we used in December '23. Our approach to determining appropriate discount rates is based primarily on market observed transactions. So during the period, we have observed a sufficient level of market transactional evidence to support the discount rates being used. We have, again in the June valuation process, complemented the market transaction type approach with a CAPM approach where we would look at the government risk free rates plus a risk premium, and these are used to construct a discount rate, and this CAPM approach is used primarily the reasonability check for our market-based approach, particularly in periods where there are muted or reduced or limited transactional data available. And as can be shown -- or as is shown on the chart, the weighted average risk-free rate has increased from 3.6% to 4% in June 2024. And based on this risk-free rate, our weighted average discount rate and the weighted average discount rate, resulting risk premium is 3.3% at 30 June, which the Management Board believe is appropriate for a portfolio of low-risk availability-style investments. With that, I'll turn back to Duncan.
Duncan Ball
executiveOkay. Thanks, Michael. I'll just talk very briefly about our role as a responsible investor in the infrastructure space. So sustainability and ESG are fully integrated into our business model. It's very much part of what we do. We follow a series of ESG standards and frameworks. You can see those listed up here. We also are subject to external ratings and recognition. So we were rated by UN PRI, ISS and Sustainalytics, and that information is available on our website. What I really invite you to do is go to our website, and you can see a stand-alone sustainability report. We just published it today. It's quite a comprehensive document that talks about what we're doing for climate resilience. It talks about how we're setting that 0 targets. And there's a lot of case studies about what we're doing in the various portfolio companies. And as I say, it's a 61-page report, and I can't do it justice here, so I invite you to -- if you're interested to go online and get more information there. As we talk about the outlook for the sector, there's a couple of key takeaways from this slide. First and foremost, we're focused on making the portfolio better, not just bigger. So we're very much focused on portfolio construction. The macro themes for infrastructure remain very positive, and its infra sector -- infrastructure growth is influenced by a couple of key themes. One is deficits. So governments are running fiscal deficits, so they have to replace infrastructure and they don't have the capital to do it. So we think there's going to be a continued role for the private sector to work with the public sector to address infrastructure deficits and gaps. Demographics is another one that people are aging. So health care and primary care are going to continue to be important. Decaying or deteriorating infrastructure is another theme. A lot of the infrastructure we use on a day-to-day basis is becoming outdated and needs to be replaced. And then that the 2 final Ds are the digitization, the importance of digital networks going forward is creating opportunities for infrastructure and decarbonization. The energy transition is changing how we think about infrastructure and creating investment opportunities. While those are the macro themes, it's important to say, we're a GBP 1 billion company. We don't need to grow significantly. We see lots of opportunities, and it's really about being selective and transacting on the opportunities that deliver best the attributes we're looking for. So there's no shortage of opportunities for us to consider, and we've always been selective and grown in a disciplined manner and we continue that -- we expect that to continue in the future, and that's very much the case as we see it. We're a specialist investor focusing on a niche. We're in an area we know well, and the market knows us well. So we're seeing not only opportunities that are coming to us through processes, but we're also seeing bilateral opportunities. So we're -- there's no shortage of transactions to consider. And our DNA remains the same. We're focused on low-risk opportunities. Our key focus is to have dividends and distributions that are highly predictable, provide defensive sources of cash flow. We want to be a dependable partner for our public sector clients, and we want to be disciplined and be very diligent in any investment opportunities we explore. And on that, I will conclude and just say that BBGI at its core is an investment company that aims to deliver attractive long-term income that's uncorrelated to the broader markets. And we have a very strong track record of increasing our dividends and NAV for over a decade. We're focused on low-risk assets that are immune to business cycles. As mentioned earlier, during COVID, 400-plus listed firms cut or suspended dividends, we weren't affected. We continued on. We're a specialist investor. We're in an area that we know well. Responsible investing is important to us. We are owners ourselves. So we're very much focused on the returns that are provided to shareholders because we are shareholders ourselves. And so I think it's a compelling story. And we're very proud of what we do in the portfolio on a day-to-day basis. We joked that no one ever called a sexy, but hopefully, they call us dependable. And I think that's what we've delivered during this half year period is another not sexy, but dependable set of results, strong income and good inflation linkage. With that, I'll close it and open it up for questions. I see there's a number of questions that have been submitted online, and we'll just take those and move forward.
Operator
operatorThat's perfect. Duncan and Michael. Thank you very much indeed for your presentation. [Operator Instructions] Duncan, Michael, as you can see, we have received a number of questions throughout today's presentation. And James, if I may now hand back to you to chair the Q&A. I'll kindly ask you to read out the questions where appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up from you at the end.
Unknown Executive
executiveFirst question, which you've touched on already to a degree on Slide 13, but it's -- what is being done to close the discount between the share price and the net asset value?
Duncan Ball
executiveOkay. Good question. And as I sit here, I'm a shareholder as well as is Michael, so we're equally concerned. I think what we've tried to do is a couple of things. We -- when we benefited from inflation, we tried to distribute that back to investors through increased dividends. We did that by increasing the dividend, 6%, 6%, and 2%. So we passed on the upside to our investors. We've tried to operate the portfolio, so it's performing well, and we have happy clients and avoid trouble. We've done that. Our first priority was to pay down our RCF. We bought 2 assets in 2022. We bought the A7 Motorway in Germany, and we bought the John Hart Generating Station. We used RCF. We never were tempted to sort of stretch beyond our means. So we were always disciplined in a very low interest rate environment. It could have been enticing to have large drawings on our RCF, but we always said, let's be disciplined. We were anticipating to come back to the market and do a capital raise and then the sector went to a discount. So what we've demonstrated is that we've been able to pay back the RCF just out of organic cash flows. So if you've been an investor in 2022, you would have had 2 new assets that you didn't have before that have been paid for out of free cash flow. And as I say, we pay down the RCF, we're now in an enviable position, where we're starting to have some free cash flow and we're looking at new investment opportunities, but those are always being considered against the opportunity to buy back shares. We bought some shares in the market to satisfy RSU and internal obligations. And -- but we're not averse to buying back shares. But we're monitoring the share price on a regular basis and trying to be disciplined in our capital allocation. And I think you can see that while we are at a discount, the discount is relatively modest, and I think it's the smallest -- one of the smallest discounts in the entire sector, but we don't want to be at a discount, and we're working hard to alleviate that. And then I guess the final point that I neglected to mention is we're also trying to expand our -- we're talking to broader audiences and trying to get the story out there about the compelling value that we believe BBGI offers currently. Very attractive dividend yield on the current share price. And hopefully, with the passage of time as people learn about our story, that discount will be reduced and we hope to eliminate it.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Please, can you explain how finite assets will work, such as are the keys to the assets returned? Is there a handover to the cash flow stop at the expiry of the contract. And in practice, is there typically a renewal retendering procedure for the asset after expiry?
Duncan Ball
executiveYes. No, it's a good question, and we provided a little more disclosure on it at this time than we have in the past. So of our portfolio, 94% are concession assets. So typically, at the end of the concession period, you would hand back the keys and there would be a handback procedure, but you wouldn't have an entitlement to any future cash flows. 6% of the portfolio, while it may be occupied by government, we own the buildings and the infrastructure. So at the end of the period, we have the ability to release that to the more or extend the contracts. So the question is, well, what happens, does that mean the music all stops in 22.8 years? The reality is we went public in 2011. And at the time, I think our portfolio life was 24 years. And 13 years on, we're 22 years. So what we've been able to do is reinvest and continue to lengthen the duration of the portfolio. So we're not too worried about that. We have a statement in here where we can pay a progressive dividend for the next 15 years without any further investment. So we're very, very confident of our ability to provide a dividend that's increasing over the next years. And we're certainly not planning to sit on our hands for 15 years. The plan is to reinvest the excess cash flow that's coming out of our portfolio to continue to lengthen it. So that hopefully addresses the investment life. But the handback procedures vary depending on jurisdiction. And the way I would describe it is, I would say, in most markets, say, for the U.K., it's like renting a car where you drive back after having rented the car, and if the tank is full of gas and you haven't banged the car up, you handback the keys and you're on your way and everything is fine. And I think that's the way you could describe it for most of our portfolio. The U.K. is a little different in that there's been some concern about handback with some -- one of our peers did a Capital Markets Day where they talked about handback and I think they're probably having a different experience than what we've had. We have very happy clients. So we're not too worried about the handback provisions. We -- on the social -- on the hospitals and the schools, those types of assets, the handback requirements sit with the facilities management company that does that. So it's not to our account. On the roadways, it is to our account, but we typically have a planned intervention like asphalt resurfacing right before handback. So the client will be getting essentially what looks like a brand-new asset. So -- and then in terms of what's coming in terms of handback, we have less than 1% of our portfolio is subject to handback in the next 5 years and it's 11% in the next 10 years. So it's not a near-term problem for us. And the one asset, we have one that's coming up in 2026. It's less than 1% of our portfolio, and we've already started that process, and it's very cordial and we've got happy clients, so we're not anticipating any problems. So I hope that's answered the question.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. And there are a few questions just around what do you mean by inflation linkage of 0.5%, and also, is your inflation linkage infinitely and linearly coupled or are there break clauses or similar in the event that inflation accelerates above a threshold or similar?
Duncan Ball
executiveYes. So -- it's a good question. And in terms of what is meant by inflation of 0.5, what that means is if inflation in all regions were 100 basis points, so 1% higher than our expectations. We would see -- for the remainder of the period, we would see a 50 basis points so 0.5% increase in the return. So what it means is if we have periods of high inflation, we participate in that, not one for one, but effectively half for one for any inflation above our expected performance. So it's a metric that others report, and others have slightly higher inflation linkage. It's not unusual to see 0.5 -- we have 0.5, but maybe 0.7% or whatever. So what we really stress is the high-quality nature of our inflation linkage. All of our contracts have some form of inflation linkage that happens at a minimum on an annual basis. Some projects, it's monthly, some it's quarterly, some it's semiannually, but it's no less frequent than annually. It's not one universal factor. It's typically RPI in the U.K. in other jurisdictions that might be CPI. It might be a basket of goods that's meant to reflect what your input costs are. So it's a bit bespoke, depending on the region, but all our contracts have some level of inflation linkage and it's very mechanical. It's not subject to regulatory approval. It's not like we have to go sing for a suffer in front of the regulator every 5 years, and they may or may not allow an increase, which is quite different than, say, regulated utilities. And it's also -- it's not subject to market elasticity. So if you had a demand-based asset you might have the theoretical ability to increase your prices by CPI, but you might find that usage falls off if you -- for instance, on a toll road, you might find that in a high inflationary environment, you might have the ability to pass on inflation, but you might find because it's a high inflationary environment. People drive less on the roads and take alternate routes to save money and you don't get one-for-one linkage. So we're very comfortable with the 50 basis points because it's so mechanical and contracted, and it's paid for by public sector counterparties, it's not paid for by consumers or others that can be higher credit risks. So I hope that's addressed the point.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Next question. The share price discount makes it impossible for you to issue new capital. How can you keep your staff motivated if you're not investing in new assets?
Duncan Ball
executiveWell, I think it's a good question. And what I would say there is we're all focused on our day job, which is delivering core infrastructure and -- to our clients. And for our investors, it's delivering the dividends and the strong, stable, predictable distributions that they're relying on. So we control the things that we can control, and it's an opportunity for us right now. We're looking at a lot of opportunities. We're -- while we may not be buying new assets, we're equally comfortable buying our shares back because it's the portfolio we know and understand very well, and we're very confident in it. So I would say that we're -- we haven't lost any staff. There's still lots to do. One of the other things I would say is the purpose -- we're driven by ownership. We're united by purpose. And as I say, 87% of our staff own shares. So we think and act like owners, and we want to do a good job for our clients. We want to do a good job for shareholders. But we also want to do a good job for ourselves because we, in fact, are shareholders ourselves. So the driven by ownership, united by purpose is very relevant in this situation. So I hope that's answered the question.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Next one, you're often characterized as being at the most conservative end of the risk-reward spectrum in the infrastructure sector. Is that fair? And will that always be the case?
Duncan Ball
executiveI think we are -- there's well-established -- yes. Sorry. I think there's people -- everyone's definition of infrastructure is slightly different, and you'll hear core, core plus, super core value-add, et cetera, to describe different classes of infrastructure. But I think there's -- a common acceptance is the type of investments that we're focused on, where we're -- we have contractual income. It's paid by creditworthy counterparties, tends to be at the very low end of the risk spectrum. And as an example of that, I would look at the underlying investment-grade ratings of how these projects are financed. So typically if there was project debt on these and they were rated, it would typically be investment grade. So that sort of gives you an indication of the risk profile. But I would say look at our track record. We've delivered stable, predictable returns for over a decade. We went through some pretty dramatic macroeconomic conditions when you think of what's happened with interest rates and inflation in recent years and prior to that, what happened with COVID. And certainly, other parts of the economy went through a lot more turmoil, and we've been very consistent in our ability to produce income. So yes, I would say it's a fair assessment of our risk profile. I'm very comfortable with the look-through to the parties that are paying us. And we have -- if you look at the slide deck, you can sort of see who is paying us, and it's creditworthy governments with typically AA and AAA rated entities, and we've got a diversified portfolio. So I would say it is at the low end of the risk spectrum.
Unknown Executive
executiveAnd just a question -- sorry, will that always be the case?
Duncan Ball
executiveYes. I mean our focus is very much on creating a low-risk portfolio that delivers stable, predictable returns that are inflation linked. So that's what we think about every day. But we do engage in portfolio construction. There's no one deal that gives you all the attributes you want. So you -- yes. And it's not to say that these are risk-free assets. So We could have an issue with an asset. Fortunately, we report every period whether we have any lockups or defaults. And I believe we're the only ones in the sector to do that, and we don't have any lockups or defaults. So we have happy clients. So that goes a long way, but there -- it's not to suggest these are risk-free assets in any way. But -- so I think you will see the portfolio stay the same in terms of its general theme, but you may see some -- as an example, we bought the John Hart Generating Station in 2022. And someone might say, well, hey, is that -- are you guys going into renewables. And we're saying, it's not really -- yes, it's a renewable asset, but it's availability-style payments where we're paid by a creditworthy government. And we're paid as long as the asset's available, as long as water can flow through the dam -- through the stock pen, and we're not taking hydrology risk. So we're not trying to be renewable people. We're just trying to deliver stable, predictable cash flows from infrastructure. And our definition of infrastructure is such that it might be slightly different than what it has been in the past, but the underlying themes are going to be very much the same. And I would take comfort in the fact that we've got a very diversified portfolio. No one asset is particularly large. The average transaction size is 2% or 3%. So we've always transacted in modest amounts. So if there are any changes to the portfolio, investors will have a lot of visibility to that. And if they don't like what they're doing, I'm sure they will tell us. But so far, when we've made acquisitions, we've never been criticized.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. The next question. Your portfolio is diversified across 7 highly rated countries. Are there any regions where you see particular growth opportunities, or conversely, areas where you might reduce exposure due to geopolitical or other risks?
Duncan Ball
executiveWe're very comfortable in the countries we're in. We try to stay within our circle of competence. We have people in all the countries where we're active. So we're -- we understand the local economies. We understand the landscape there. We're -- so there's no problem there. And it means we're also not dependent on any one market. So it's not like we're overexposed to a market, and if the deal flow in that particular market changes, then it's going to have a big impact on our business. So I think you will see us look at the geographies we've historically been in, but could it change modestly? We're in Australia. We've looked at lots of deals in New Zealand, but we've never transacted there. We'd love to do more in the U.S. We're comfortable in the countries in Europe we're in. We're in obviously the U.K., but we're in Germany, Netherlands and Norway. But I think you're going to see us focusing on similar geographies. We're not going to go to areas that we don't know or don't understand.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Next question. I believe BBGI is not exposed to termination for convenience clauses in the U.S. Do you see risk for future investments from recent news in Texas and U.S.A. grantors adopting these clauses, capping the upside in future concessions?
Duncan Ball
executiveYes. So I think probably what that question stems to is there was a particular circumstance for a toll road in the U.S. where it's recently been announced that was terminated for convenience. And there was -- there were clauses there that allowed the contract -- or allowed the public sector to do that. Across our portfolio, it's not uncommon to have termination for convenience clauses. But usually, when there's a termination for convenience, you have to -- the authority has to pay off the senior debt. And there's typically make-wholes, and they have to compensate equity. I think the particular instance in the U.S. was -- it was a slightly different situation in that the private sector participated in a toll road, and the -- they were taking the -- it was a long concession with -- and traffic has significantly outperformed everyone's forecast. And so the value to the -- for the private sector had increased significantly. And the counterparty -- the public sector counterparty saw that as an opportunity to terminate and extract that value. We -- that's one of the risks if things are too good. Then it does create that political imperative or political opportunity for someone to consider that. Our stuff -- the availability-style transactions that we've done haven't been exposed to those. So whenever we do an acquisition, we do, do a lot of legal due diligence. We do a lot of technical due diligence, insurance due diligence, all types of due diligence. And that is always one of the areas that we look at. And I can tell you, there were some very interesting opportunities that we would have loved to invest in, but we didn't even go to the next stage because we weren't comfortable with the termination for convenience provisions, and we walked away. So I'm not worried about that within our portfolio. And I don't think that's going to be a systemic issue. I think that's a one-off transaction.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Next question. Why do you hold your AGM in Luxembourg and not the U.K. and without an option to attend online? Wouldn't it help with shareholder engagement and transparency to hold the AGM in the U.K. or provide the ability to attend online?
Duncan Ball
executiveI think we're obligated as from IPO, we've been set up in Luxembourg. So we're obligated to hold our AGM in Luxembourg. We can't get around that. It's in our minutes. We have looked at the ability to use a service like Investor Meet to give people the opportunity to attend. The AGM is open for attendance, but we realized that a lot of our investors are U.K.-based and don't want to travel over. But we do try to do a lot of engagement with both retail and institutional investors. There's voting in advance, and we have access to the Management Board and the Supervisory Board. So if there's any pressing issues, we would like to think that we're very much available to investors of all types, whether it's institutional or retail, and try to respond quickly. And -- but it's a good point. And if there's sufficient interest, it may be something that we consider in the future, giving people the ability to attend virtually so they don't have to travel. But generally speaking, the AGM is pretty -- it's more of a mechanical issue. And if people have issues or want to raise them, they can always do so through our website or through contacting myself or Michael directly or contacting our Supervisory Board directly.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks. And next one. Do you build your buildings or assets or take them over once built?
Duncan Ball
executiveIt's a bit of both. We do -- we have participated in the development of projects. The most recent example of that is Highway 104 in Nova Scotia, Canada. That became operational this time last year, and we worked from the outset with a local partner to deliver that and build that. When I say build it, they were the constructor. We were the equity investor and sat alongside them. We're not involved in the construction, but we were involved in the development process. So we have developed assets over the years. So we have that confidence and capability in-house. But we also are very -- we're on the speed dial of most of the large builders that are active in the space. And often what they'll do is they'll want to build the asset, and then once it's derisked, then they will want to divest of it and recycle their capital to do the next project. So that's typically where we play more frequently, is in that space where we're a source of liquidity for developers that we have good working relationships with.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Next, the forecast dividend increase for next year of 2% is a reduction on 2024 and potentially below the rate of inflation. Does this mean that despite your forward visibility, you are more cautious about the future? And allied to that is why is the dividend increase of '25 planned to be below the average.
Duncan Ball
executiveYes. I mean it's a very good question. And we -- what we did was when we benefited from higher inflation, I guess, in not this most recent year but last year, April -- March or April of 2023, when we've been beneficiaries of higher inflation and we knew that it was going to flow through our projects, we provided a 6% increase and then a 6% increase. And then we didn't know what -- there's a lot of debate if you go back 2 years ago, was inflation transitory or was it systemic. And so we said, let's go with 6%, 6% and 2%. We're now a year on, and we delivered 6% last year. We'll deliver 6% this year. I wish I knew what inflation was going to be. If inflation is higher, then you would expect that we would continue to do what we've done, which is flow some of that benefit through. We obviously -- when you see the inflation linkage isn't 100%, it's 50% if inflation is -- we won't -- we're not -- we're saying a prospective dividend not a fully inflation-linked dividend, but you've got good inflation linkage. So if inflation is high, you can probably expect that dividend to be higher than 2% in the future. If what everyone is hoping, which is inflation gets under control, then 2% seems reasonable, but you're absolutely right. We don't know what inflation is going to be in the future, and we've tried to be reasonable in our forecast about inflation rates and reasonable about our -- at the rate at which we're growing the dividend.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. The assets you own must require ongoing maintenance. Are you exposed to these costs? And if so, are they controllable? Or could they blow up to extreme amounts?
Duncan Ball
executiveSo typically, what you call maintenance here, we would call life cycle risk. And we do a lot of analysis on life cycle risk. And typically, on the schools and the hospitals, that's passed down to the facility management contract firm. So we have the likes of Honeywell or Johnson Controls or those types of firms doing that. And they have balance sheets and credit rating and security packages to support those obligations, and they take the risk of how they manage the assets. And if they outperform, they get to keep it. And if they underperform, then they have to subsidize those costs. The difference is on the roads. The roads, we typically maintain the life cycle risk ourselves. Is it a risk? Or is it an opportunity? It depends. We typically look at a road, and a road typically involves building the road. You might resurface halfway through, and then you might resurface again right before hand back. And we have -- these aren't just numbers that we pull out of the air when we buy or build. Lots of due diligence goes in. Quantities and detailed life cycle models are maintained, and we manage that risk very, very well. As an example, during COVID, there was a period where asphalt became very inexpensive. You may recall during COVID, there was a contango where oil was very cheap. It was almost to the point where at one point in the cycle, people were being paid to take oil because there was no -- there's concerns about how oil would be stored and if the economy slowed down. And so when oil was very cheap, what we did was we accelerated some of our asphalt works to take advantage of that. So when we do have life cycle risks on the roads, it's a lot more manageable. You can imagine in an office or a hospital, if the elevator breaks, you've got to fix it right away. And -- but on a road, if you get a -- you can accelerate when you want to do your maintenance. Do you repave the road this year? Or do you patch and fill and then repave it next year? So we have planned life cycle interventions on our roads, but we will look at commodities markets and labor markets and everything else. And over the years, we've been opportunistic, and that's been a source of opportunity for us. We have a slide in the deck, too. One of the things we're doing is we're using AI. So our -- on various of our roads, the asset managers have -- it's a little Samsung Galaxy tablet mounted to the -- inside of their car. And as they drive up and down the roadway, there's a camera mounted underneath that takes images of the roads. And it builds -- it uses machine learning and analyzes the photographs of the road or the videos of the roadways. And if there's a small crack, it sort of does predictive modeling to determine when we -- when the optimal time is to fill that crack or do an overlay. So we're using some sophisticated methodologies to manage that risk. And we've -- as a result of doing that, we've been able to -- life cycle exposure has been an upside for us, and we expect that to be -- continue to be the case in the future.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Last few questions. How much of an impact do you envisage lower interest rates might have on the share price?
Duncan Ball
executiveThat's a good one. It's hard. We -- as Michael said, we use an observed transaction methodology as our primary way of valuing the portfolio. So we look at comparable sales. We use a capital asset pricing model as a sensibility check, or we rely on it more heavily if there's periods where there's no transactions. So when interest rates started backing up and there was a bit of a freeze when buyers and sellers were sort of saying, let's determine the direction of travel and hold off on transacting, we put a greater emphasis on capital asset pricing model. But certainly, in the last couple of reporting periods, there's been lots of observed transactions, and we're very confident in the discount rate we're using. So I think it would be a function of how quickly prices adjust. And we haven't seen -- we haven't seen prices go up, and we haven't seen them go down. It seems to be a stable market. But the one thing I would say is we're perhaps maybe not as sensitive to interest rates as people would think. If you look at a long-duration bond, it's very sensitive to interest rates. But we have mitigants in that we have -- because of the inflation linkage, usually, if you've got lower inflation or if you got lower interest rates, that might mean lower inflation. So we might benefit if interest rates come off significantly. We might benefit from lower discount rates, but we might not get as much inflation uplift. And we also have significant amounts of cash on deposits. So when these are -- monies that are held in the various project companies for major maintenance reserve accounts and debt service reserve accounts that are required under the financing documents. So when interest rates were high, it hurt us on the discount rate, but we made a lot more money on deposit. And now if interest rates come off, well, we'll benefit from higher valuation of the portfolio. But we may not get as much inflation benefit, and we may not get as much deposit benefit for monies held in deposit.
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks, Duncan. Do you envisage your exposure to the U.K. increasing due to the new Labour government's growth plans?
Duncan Ball
executiveI think our exposure to the U.K. will be a function of if we see attractive deals and not really driven by government policy. There's -- it's -- we put the slide in about the outlook for the sector, and I talk about deficits and everything else. So I think the long-term macro theme remains very much as we say in there. But really from one period to the next, it's -- we're looking at transactions. And some of the deals that we're looking at are new build opportunities. Some are assets that have been built in the past where people are looking to sell their interest, and if we can acquire them on attractive terms, we'll do so. So we're not really dependent, I would say, on government policy. But it's certainly encouraging that Labour is going to be more supportive, I think, than a lot of people thought. So we're optimistic about the future, but it really shouldn't have a big impact on our -- I think our geographic exposure will be a very -- will be determined more by the attractiveness of whatever deals we see that we decide meet our criteria as opposed to government policy.
Unknown Executive
executiveAnd last 2 questions. First of all, what succession planning do you have in the business in place for key man roles?
Duncan Ball
executiveSo I think we've got a very strong team. And in terms of our team, it's an experienced team. The average tenor is over 20 years. So we've got people who know what they're doing. We try to run our business. So there is redundancy in most positions. So if someone were to leave, there's other people who are across their work, so it could operate without impact. So I think that's -- there's a lot of depth to our team, our employees, our owners. So that helps keep people in their chairs and motivated and engaged. When people are owners, they act like owners. And so we've seen low levels of turnover in our team, and we've got a motivated team. But succession planning is something that any well-run business considers, and we certainly consider it. It's talked about at the Board level. It's talked about -- everyone from our junior modelers to our senior asset managers, we always look and say, well, what would happen if this person left and we have capacity? And so it's very much integrated into our thought process.
Unknown Executive
executiveAnd the last question. The U.K. water industry is facing a lot of political criticism, which is limiting its ability to raise new finance. Could you ever see yourself financing an asset in the U.K. water industry? Or are the political risks, regulatory risks too high?
Duncan Ball
executiveI'm very reluctant to say anything, but never say never, but it's not an area of our focus. We -- regulatory risk is not something we deal with on a day-to-day basis. And there may be opportunities there, but it's opportunities that are probably beyond our confidence or circle of confidence. And so I think you're going to see us stay clear of that. Regulatory and political risk, it's difficult to manage that. And not to say we don't have any risks in our portfolio, but we try to -- we like to have risks that we can control or mitigate. We don't like having binary risks that -- I've never gone skydiving. It gives you the -- because the probability of landing safely are very high, but the -- if you pull the cord and your chute doesn't open, then it's a binary outcome, and it's not positive. And that's the way we look at the water industry. It's an area we don't understand. And people much smarter than us have lost a lot of money there. And so I think we'll stay away from it.
Operator
operatorThat's great. Duncan, Michael, James, thank you for addressing those questions from investors today. And of course, the company can review all questions submitted today, and we'll publish those responses on the Investor Meet Company platform. But before we direct the investors to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to the company, Duncan, can I please ask you for a few closing comments?
Duncan Ball
executiveWell, we -- for anyone who's dialed in, we really appreciate your interest and support. And there were some good questions, and we appreciate the engagement. If anyone has more questions, they have our e-mails on the website or can reach out to us, and we would love to answer any questions you may have. And we appreciate your time and support today. Thank you.
Operator
operatorPerfect, Duncan, Michael. Thank you once again for updating investors today. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you will now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback in order for the Board to better understand your views and expectations? This will only take a few moments to complete and I'm sure will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of BBGI Global Infrastructure, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good afternoon to you all.
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