Befesa S.A. (BFSA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to the Preliminary Full Year 2023 Results Conference Call of Befesa. I am Rafael Perez, CFO of Befesa. Today, we have with us Javier Molina, Executive Chair of Befesa; and Asier Zarraonandia, CEO of the company. Javier Molina will start with an executive summary. After that, Asier will explain the business highlights of the period, covering steel dust and aluminum salt slag recycling. I will then review the financials with a focus on prices, cash flow, net debt and our hedging program. Asier will close this presentation providing an update on the outlook for 2024 as well as our growth plan over the next 5 years. Finally, we will open the lines for the Q&A session. Before getting started, let me remind you that this conference call is being webcasted live. You can find the link to the webcast and to the preliminary 2023 results presentation on our website, www.befesa.com. Now let me turn this call over to our Chairman. Javier, please?

Thank you, Rafael. During the fourth quarter of last year, we have continued to operate in a challenging macroeconomic environment like we have seen during the rest of the year. Despite these difficult market conditions, Befesa has been able to deliver solid financial results. Total revenues in last year were close to EUR 1.2 billion driven by the integration of the zinc refining operations in U.S., which have compensated the strong decrease in zinc price. Adjusted EBITDA in the year was EUR 182 million, down 15% compared to the previous year. The main driver for this decrease has been higher zinc treatment charge, up 19% compared to the previous year and lower zinc prices, which have been down 26% compared to 2022. All these negative FX has been partially offset by higher zinc hedging price, a lower operating cost driving by productivity improvements and lower natural gas and electricity prices. Asier will explain the performance on the steel and aluminum businesses in more detail later. From the growth point of view during 2023, our focus has been on the duration of the U.S. operations to capture the operational synergies as well as the zinc refining plant in North Carolina, which is improving its performance gradually with higher utilization rates. The focus now is on reducing the cost base, which will drive profitability further. Also in the U.S., we have continued with the refurbishment works on the plant in Palmerton, Pennsylvania, which will enable us to capture the growth that we are seeing in the U.S. on steel dust recycling over the next 2 years. In China, 2023 has been characterized by a serious real estate prices, which have impacted the construction industry in the country with a negative effect on the level of steel production from our customers, which continues to be weak. This has affected the utilization of our plants in Jiangsu and Henan in 2023. In this environment, we are adapting our approach to the construction of the third plant in the province of Guangdong. The focus right now is on getting the steel dust supply agreements with the local producers to have certain people of supply before starting the construction of the plant. With regards to the outlook for 2024. Overall, we expect to return to the growth path as the external pressures that we faced in 2023 revert in 2024. As such, we expect solid earnings growth driven by a normalization of some commodity prices as well as operational improvements. We are very optimistic about the midterm outlook, our well-defined 5-year growth plan is based on the strong market fundamentals like decarbonization megatrend, which represents a great market opportunity in our steel dust and aluminum recycling businesses. We have a growth plan, which is well diversified across regions and markets, which provides us the feasibility to move a different speed depending on the dynamics that we see in each market. As of today, we see a strong U.S. steel market, which will grow over the next 2 years, and we are moving fast to capture the growth opportunity by focusing on increasing the capacity of our plant in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, as explained earlier, in China, we are monitoring the development of the real estate industry where we work on securing the steel dust volume in the [ current ] plant. As we have explained, we can model the speed on the investment, depending on the different dynamics that we see in the different markets. As such, we are adopting the execution of our growth strategy to the current situation in China. Finally, on dividend, we are proposing a dividend payment of EUR 0.73 per share, which represents a 50% payout of the net income of the period, consistent with our dividend policy of distributing between 40% to 50% of the net income. Now, Asier, will explain the business performance in more detail.

Thank you, Javier. I will now provide an overview of the performance of the business in 2023. Overall, the year 2023 has been a challenging one, as explained by Javier, impacted by lower zinc prices, higher zinc treatment charges, higher coal prices and still a weak market environment in China. Turning on to the Page 7, the consolidated results of Befesa. Befesa's total revenue increases by EUR 43 million or 4% year-on-year to [indiscernible] in 2023 mainly driven by the contribution from the U.S. zinc refining operations. Befesa delivered an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 182 million, down EUR 33 million or 15% year-on-year. This decrease was driven mainly by lower metal prices of zinc and aluminum. Let me take you through the main drivers on year-on-year EUR 53 million EBITDA development in more detail. On volume, overall, approximately EUR 13 million positive volume year-on-year impact, mainly driven by solid volume development in Europe, which is the market where we achieved the highest margin and the contribution for China as well as aluminum salt slag with Hanover plant back into operations. On price, overall, approximately EUR 59 million negative price year-on-year impact explained by lower zinc and aluminum prices, around EUR 54 million from the steel dust business and around EUR 15 million from the aluminum salt slag business. I will explain in more detail later. On cost overall, approximately EUR 10 million positive impact, mainly driven by lower operating costs in our steel dust and aluminum salt slag business. In this case, mainly through lower electricity and natural gas prices. And this partially offset by higher coal prices. Now turning to the Page 8, the results from our steel dust business. Revenue in the steel dust business increased by EUR 55 million or 8% year-on-year to EUR 783 million, mainly attributable to the contribution from the U.S. in refining operations. Steel dust delivered EUR 134 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, down EUR 34 million or 20% year-on-year. Overall, the year-on-year EUR 34 million decrease in EBITDA was mainly driven by the 26% decrease in zinc LME market prices. EBITDA year-on-year impact from volume was positive by around EUR 9 million, as explained mainly due to solid volumes in Europe as well as strong contribution from China. In Turkey, after the earthquake happened in February 2023, our plant in Iskenderun has been operating at normal levels. Total steel dust volumes remained overall stable year-on-year representing an average utilization of 69%. The lower utilization compared to 2022 is explained by the inclusion of the Henan plant in the calculation. On price, overall negative EBITDA year-on-year impact of about EUR 54 million with the main price components being EUR 56 million negative impact from lower zinc LME prices, down 26% or around EUR 1850 per ton year-on-year to around EUR 2,450 year-over-year per ton on average in 2023. The [ EUR 12 million ] positive impact from higher zinc hedging prices helped us to fully offset the unfavorable increase of zinc TCs which was set at $274 per ton for the year 2023 versus $230 per ton in 2022. On cost order, the pressure for higher coal prices was more than offset by the positive impact through the productivity and synergies. Moving now to Page 9. With the results of our aluminum salt slag recycling business. Aluminum salt slag delivered a strong year with EUR 48 million adjusted EBITDA, up 4% year-on-year. The year-on-year EUR 2 million EBITDA improvement was mainly due to the higher volume and lower costs, primarily through lower energy prices, partially offset by lower aluminum market prices. On volumes, overall positive EBITDA year-on-year impact of EUR 4 million. Our salt slag recycling volumes increased by 12% year-on-year to 361,000 tons primarily due to the ramp-up of the Hanover plant, which we completed in Q2. Our aluminum alloy production volumes increased by 5% year-on-year to 168,000 tons. With these volumes, we operated our plants at solid utilization rate of about 77% in salt slag and 82% in secondary aluminum on average. With regards to the prices, overall negative EBITDA year-on-year impact of about EUR 15 million mainly driven by the aluminum alloy FMB market prices suffered a 10% or around EUR 250 per ton decrease in 2023 versus the previous year. This negative price effect was mostly compensated with year-on-year lower operating cost, mainly through the lower gas and electricity prices. Turning to the Page 10 on key volume drivers. From the market point of view, although at the global level, steel production in '23 remained overly stable compared to the previous year, it has shown different results by geographies. In Europe, steel production has decreased 7%, although most of the decrease came from BOF side of the production. EAF production in Europe continues at solid level supporting the strong utilization levels in our plants. In the U.S., the steel production in 2023 was similar to the previous year. However, our volume is slightly lower as we already expected. In China, although total steel production was approximately stable year-on-year, the production from our EAF steelmakers customers is still weak driven by a low level of construction caused by the real estate crisis in China suffering. As a consequence, our plant in Jiangsu ramped around 60% utilization and Henan plan at around 30% utilization in 2023. Now Rafael will cover more details on zinc prices, hedging and cash flow.

Thank you, Asier. As shown on Page 11, the current decrease in zinc prices is one of the largest thing in the last 15 years. LME prices decreased significantly in 2023, and they are moving slightly above the C90 cost curve, which is the marginal cost of the producer. Zinc prices have historically rebounded strongly upon touching the C90 curve. This time, however, the recovery is not happening as quickly as in the past. Nevertheless, the C90 is a clear floor of the zinc price. On the other hand, to see an increase in the zinc price, improvement in the macroeconomic environment should be required. Moving on to Page 12, regarding treatment charges for zinc. In 2023, our results were negatively impacted by a very unfavorable combination of high treatment charges, which were settled for 2023 when the zinc price was very high and on the other hand, by collapsing zinc prices throughout the year. Treatment charges in 2023 were close to all-time high levels. In our view, this should reverse in 2024. Asier will comment further on this later when he covers the preliminary outlook for 2024. Turning to Page 13, on hedging. Befesa's hedging strategy remains unchanged and continues to be a key element of Befesa's business model, providing earnings visibility and predictability lowering the impact of zinc prices volatility and, therefore, improving the stability of earnings and cash flow throughout the economic cycle. It is a moment like the one we are suffering right now with falling zinc prices caused by uncertainty and weak global economic outlook when the hedging proved its value. Our zinc hedge book covers 60% to 70% of our zinc exposure, up to and including July 2025. Therefore, we have more than 15 months of hedging our books at increasing hedging average prices around EUR 2,500 per ton in 2024 and around $2,650 per ton for the first 7 months of 2025. With regards to the Befesa's coke price, as you can see on Page 14, after reaching all time high levels in Q1, Befesa's coke price started to moderate in Q2 and normalize further in the second half of the year. However, despite this positive trend, the average coke price in 2023 was still around 75% above the level of 2021 and around 5% compared to the previous year. In the first month of 2024, we are starting to see further normalization, especially in Europe, which we expect to continue throughout the rest of 2024 as well as in other geographies. Asier will comment further on our view around comp price for 2024 when he covers the preliminary outlook for the year. Regarding gas and electricity prices. On the contrary, this continued to decrease further in 2023 to the level of 2021 and were respectively about 60% and 25% lower year-on-year. This had a positive impact on our aluminum salt slag operations. Turning to Page 15. Cash flow, net debt and leverage results. On the EBITDA to cash flow bridge starting with EUR 182 million adjusted EBITDA on the left and working through the right. Working capital consumption was up by about EUR 18 million. As in previous years, working capital improved significantly in Q4 compared to the previous quarter. Overall, working capital consumption was very much driven by the increase in revenues and receivables. Interest paid increased by 42% to EUR 30 million in 2023. This was explained primarily by 2 elements. On the one hand, the higher margin applicable to the Term Loan B, which increased in December '22 by 25 basis points to Euribor plus 2% due to the increase in the leverage ratio. On the other hand, the year-on-year higher Euribor from 0% in 2022 to 3.9% applicable in 2023. Taxes paid decreased by 23% to EUR 17 million in 2023, driven by the lower profit before taxes compared to the previous year, resulting in an operating cash flow of $117 million in 2023, down 15% compared to the last year, pretty much driven by the lower earnings. The operating cash flow to EBITDA ratio amounts to 65% in line with the last 5 years' average ratio. CapEx-wise, in 2023, we have invested EUR 84 million in maintenance CapEx, including expenditures related to the financial recovery of our Hanover plant and related to the operational excellence projects in the U.S. Normalizing for the Hanover recovery CapEx, regular maintenance amounted to EUR 68 million. Going forward, regular maintenance CapEx will be around EUR 40 million to EUR 45 million. Gross CapEx amounted to EUR 20 million, including the remaining expenditure for the Henan project and CapEx related to the refurbishment project of Palmerton plant in Pennsylvania. Overall, total CapEx of EUR 105 million in 2023, normalized for about $60 million of Hanover spend, total CapEx would amount to around EUR 89 million in line with the $85 million to $95 million CapEx guidance for the full year 2023. Dividends of EUR 50 million or EUR 1.25 per share were distributed in July equal to 47% of the net profit of 2022 within our policy of distributing 40% to 50% of the net income of the previous year. After funding working capital, interest, taxes, CapEx and dividend, total cash flow amounted to minus EUR 55 million in 2023. Cash on hand stands at EUR 107 million, which together with our entirely undrawn EUR 75 million revolving credit line provides Befesa with over EUR 180 million of liquidity. The EUR 604 million net debt with EUR 182 million adjusted EBITDA results in a leverage of 3.32x at the year-end. Our capital structure is long-term and efficient with no covenants and no maturities until July 2026. Now back to Asier on outlook and growth.

Thank you, Rafael. Moving now to outlook on Page 17. As Javier explained, for 2024, we expect solid earnings growth as many of the pressures we faced in 2023 will be reverted in 2024. Firstly, the high premium charge will decrease significantly in 2024, especially in the current weak zinc price environment that we have seen in the first 2 months of the year. For the reference, spot TC is well below $100 per ton. Its $10 TC variation has an impact of around EUR 2.3 million EBITDA. Secondly, coal prices decreasing in Europe and the trend in the U.S. goes in the right direction, which will deliver earnings growth in 2024. As a reference, we are expecting a reduction in overall coal prices of at least 20% to 30% for the group. Third, the hedging level is better in 2024, which will deliver around EUR 12 million. Number four, in the U.S., we expect to continue capturing the operational synergies in the recycling plants during 2024. And finally, in China, we clearly expect 2024 to be a better year than 2023. Although we do not expect a recovery of the overall Chinese economy, especially in the real estate sector, we expect to increase the capacity utilization of the 2 plants that we are operating today. In 2023, we achieved around 60% utilization on positive EBITDA in Jiangsu and in 2024, we expect to achieve around 90% utilization driven by expanding the customer base to other provinces. In Henan, we are targeting around 40% utilization again driven by expanding our customer base. The main headwind we expect to suffer in 2024 is coming from salaries inflation driven by significant increase in Europe and the U.S. Regarding zinc prices, it is always difficult to estimate. We clearly see a solid floor at the current levels of around $2,300. However, in order to see an increase in the price level, we need to see an improvement in the overall macroeconomic situation where China plays a relevant role. Average zinc price in 2023 was $2,650. So far, in 2024, the average zinc price has been $2,485. The weak zinc prices primarily driven by the weak global economy outlook, especially in China. All in all, considering all factors, we expect double-digit growth for 2024. As always, we will provide a specific growth targets for 2024 when we report the Q1 figures and treatment charge has been settled. Page 18 on growth. Regarding our midterm outlook, we remain very optimistic. We have a well-defined 5-year plan, which is based on strong market fundamentals like the decarbonization megatrend. Decarbonization will give -- that in electric car furnace and steel production in the key markets where Befesa operates, which will make steel dust production to grow in the coming years. Similarly, the electric vehicle trend will drive the demand for aluminum in Europe and the U.S. in the coming years as the automotive industry looks for lightweight solutions. Our growth plan is well diversified across the regions and markets, which provides us the flexibility to move in different speed depending on the developments that we see in each market. In this current challenging environment, we are cautious about the capital expenditures, and we are adapting the CapEx to the dynamics that we see in the market. We have a well-defined growth plan consisting of 9 projects in Europe, China and the U.S. to capture the growth opportunities that we are seeing in the market. The first part of the investment plan focuses on the U.S. with the refurbishment of the Palmerton plant, which has already started with the demolition works of one of the 2 kilns and the signing of the EPC contract. As explained in the past, the refurbishment of the Palmerton plant consists of the upgrade of the 2 kilns in the plant, one at the time in order to capture the growth in the North American market is going to experience in 2025 and beyond. The first phase of the project will be completed in the second part of 2024, while the second phase will be completed by the first part of 2025. The second focus of the business plan is China, where we are developing the third plant in the province of Guangdong. With more than 120 million people living in the province, Guangdong is one of the richest in the nation and the largest car manufacturing location in China. The current situation in China characterized by a weak economic environment and a weaker steel production makes us be very more conscious and adapt to the situation in the country. We are monitoring the evolution of the market and do not expect to invest in the plan in 2023. The focus at the moment is on securing the steel dust volume for our customers before start deploying capital in Guangdong. Despite the current challenging market environment, China has all the ingredients for Befesa to run profitable operations. The penetration of EAF is clearly increasing. They are implementing a strong environmental regulation, and we believe that the first mover advantage is essential. We have stepped back and look at the higher picture, considering normalized average prices at the time of the IPO back in 2017, Befesa was a company of around EUR 150 million mid-cycle EBITDA, present in Europe, Turkey and Korea. Today, we have a strong presence in the U.S. and China, which are 2 strong growth markets, and we produced an average EBITDA of around EUR 200 million to EUR 220 million. Our ambition is to grow the company to reach EUR 350 million mid-cycle EBITDA in the following 5 years. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Asier. We will now open the line for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Michael Hoffman with Stifel.

I'd like to try and tease out a little more about how to think what double-digit improvement in profit looks like. You shared with us EUR 30 million benefit from hedging. If coke prices and electricity stay where they are, is that another sort of combined between them EUR 10 million, EUR 15 million? And then you've got the treatment charge. I'd be curious where you think that it's going to land. I get we have to wait until April, May to get clarity on that. But where do you think it lands?

Thank you, Michael. Yes, I can confirm what you are telling. I mean EUR 30 million for the hedging around that. This is what we are that we can confirm. That's for sure. Coke, yes, range of 10% to 15% means basically the 20% to 30% decrease that we have [ started ] in the market even currently. Well, let's see, this is more, but I think this is more or less than and we see this for the whole of the year. And yes, you are right. The treatment charge is something which is still pending to be fixed. Currently, those [indiscernible] this weekend, the International Zinc Association meeting has been in Orlando, normally there probably you can get some guidance about what is going to happen. Clearly, reduction is there. Level of EUR 200 million could be possible, even a little bit better, at least for the rumors, but it's still to be confirmed. If you take this level, you are easily getting $70 to $80 reduction. That means EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million in our profit and loss. But as you say, we need a little bit more time to confirm that and normally, for the Q1 presentation, we will have the confirmation. But yes, unless you are considering the figures more or less that we have in mind.

Okay. So that's -- on the low side, you're talking about sort of EUR 50 million, EUR 60 million, I'll do that forever, of incremental profitability at current metals prices? Is that the right way to think about it directionally?

Yes, you have to consider as well some inflation. But basically, that could reduce that figure. But yes, the current prices is the key. This is the idea. Yes, inflection could be in the range of 10% to 15% as well negative headwind. But well, more or less doesn't change a lot of the picture you are describing.

Right. So that goes from round numbers 180, somewhere into the --230, 225, 230 is a good place to start.

I would like to say that. But again, we will confirm Q1 with more color, but will depend on the zinc prices that well. I think it remains at $2,300 like today, it's putting more difficulty to this number. But well, normalizing zinc prices, well, I don't know where we are going to land, but well, it's a reference what we are saying.

Okay. Fair enough. And then as you think about the ongoing growth, if China doesn't improve at all, do you in the real estate market that they've just -- they're in a sort of a long-term real estate malaise. Is the conversion of the steel production capacity enough to warrant building the third site? Or do you really have to have a recovery in the real estate outlook?

So let me tell yes or no. I mean we approach China. Once again, we consider as a country, but in reality, there are many countries, as many problems they have. With the approaching Guangdong is not only for the general situation of the economy in China is more for a provincial level where they have a very recent production -- steel production for electrical furnace using a scrap in the area. They are growing this kind of business, and they need the solution for recycling. Yes, in terms of percentage of plant utilization rate for them is effective for the real estate. But in this province, economical situation and the enforcement of the law is better. So [indiscernible], Guangdong as we think that is a space for a new plant there. And then, yes, generally speaking, more plants in China, in which provinces will depend on the recovery of these prices. Obviously, midterm and the recovery will come. The question is when. So we don't see in the short-term recovery. But obviously, we cannot -- the crystal ball to say nothing we are not an expert, but we are not even considering this. We think that we are focused on the Guangdong itself possibilities as a province. And we think that with some compromise for the steelmakers, we have a rule to build the third plant in China.

And then the last one for me. The auto production does impact your business, both sides the aluminum and the steel side? EU regulations around electric vehicles don't seem to favor European producers. They're disadvantaging the European producers. Do you all have an opinion on what you think happens to the European auto production?

Well, it's a question for really automotive experts more than us that we are complementary and so. But we do think that with the reaction of the European car makers is going in the good direction as well. And for the level of recycling that we are located is clearly that there are 2 trends as well. One is the number, as you say, probably we'll see it's going to grow. I think it's going to grow in Europe finally. And so the numbers is one thing. But the second part as well is the percentage of aluminum in each car, which is growing as well already. So trend is there. And no matter if this is going to be a big reaction in Europe or not, higher than in China or another, the trend of decarbonization, electrical cars and [ light up ] cars using more aluminum obviously is there. So yes, I think that is supporting our growth idea, and we will see how the reaction of the European car makers to finally.

The next question comes from the line of Sandeep Peety with Morgan Stanley.

I have a few questions. I'll take one at a time. So in previous calls, you had mentioned that international competition is limited in China. How do you see the situation today? And can you comment on what is the local competition like in -- particularly in China and in the province that you operate?

Thank you for the question, Sandeep. Well, obviously, for one quarter to the other, the situation is not changing a lot. We don't see competitors in the provinces where we are, but well there are players which are not Tier 1 recyclers that are taking some material, especially in Henan. In Jiangsu we see this less. So international players that are not local players consider as recycler following the best available technology that China has implemented as well either. So well, it will come in the future, but we don't see already now.

And then I have a question on U.S. business. So what level of utilization profitability are you expecting from U.S. refining asset in 2024 and how is the restructuring progressing in the business?

Well, basically, what we do expect in U.S. refinery is to have -- to run the plant at high [ ratios ] that we are almost there and then improve the profitability. And as all will say, depending on the year, in prices, depending on the treatment charges, depending on many things but at the end, we think there is a business that has to run in between $10 to $20 million per year, probably not this year, but in the future, for sure. We are growing the business and we do hope this.

And finally, one question from my side. Do you expect China plants to generate EUR 9 million to EUR 11 million per plant on today's zinc price, especially in Jiangsu where you are expected to operate at 90% utilization.

Well, on the low level, probably with the current zinc prices would be, yes, EUR 8 million to EUR 9 million transport yes. Everything depends as well on the follow to the treatment charges as well as a whole. I mean prices is one level and the second part as well is how the percentage of the treatment charges at the country goes. But yes, I think it's in this level, low levels of this -- of the normal ratio we used to say is confirmed.

The next question comes from the line of Juan Rodriguez with Kepler Cheuvreux. The next question comes from the line of Jorge Gonzalez with [indiscernible] Investment Bank.

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

Most of my questions have been answered, but maybe on U.S., I was wondering if you can remind us what is the utilization level that you are foreseeing in the midterm for '24. If I'm not wrong, you are talking about levels of 70%. How do you see this evolving in the following couple of years, taking into account also that you will recover Palmerton. And obviously, there is -- you will need to fill no more plants? That would be my first question, please.

Thank you, Jorge. Definitely, yes. We are running at the level of 70%. We are convinced that we are going to have increased [ 25 ] or more. And '25 is going to be the year where some projects for steelmakers are going to be delivered. Well, depending on when they are going to deliver '25 probably we see something. But for sure, '26 some growth is going to be the new capacity in the market, and we are ready -- we are going to be ready to capture with the refurbishment as we are discussing Palmerton. Having said that, '26 onwards, probably the levels would be in the rate of like the European plants in the late of higher 80%, 90%, depending on the year. But yes, we have to grow to the global capacity at the level of 85% to 90% is the challenge or the [ stuff ] that we have for '26 or more mainly.

So Palmerton -- you are not expecting a relevant contribution in '25?

It depends on the market development. We are going to be ready in '25 with Palmerton in the first part of the year with the 2 kilns. So imagine if the new plant of Nucor finally ramp-up is going well in '25, they are [ more back ] or the U.S. steel and now Nippon steel is coming finally there. ArcelorMittal in Calvert Alabama deliver finally in '25, probably we will see some tonnages in '25. But more than depending on us, depending on the market. We are going to be ready for sure to capture in '25 as much as they put on the market. But for sure, '26, we see that those projects are going to be delivered. So that's why '25 is a little transitional year with the new capacity for steel production in U.S. This is the idea.

Understood. And maybe a second question on Rutherford on the refining asset. You were talking about breakeven in Q4, if I'm not wrong and in '24, this is going to be mostly the same. So you are foreseeing breakeven?

Yes.

But what is the profitability that you are targeting here in the midterm compared to the numbers that you provided in the past with the different milestones. What are the margin levels that you think are doable in 2, 3 years' time for...

What we are contemplating is something in between the $10 million to $20 million per year and is based on the -- depending on the treatment charges as well, depending on the zinc prices and so on. That's why the range is like that. Now we are not far from that. But at the end of the day, we have to consolidate the high utilization rate that we have to consolidate and reduce finally the cost from the ramp-up mode to the normal operations mode. But at the end of the day, it's affected by the lower zinc prices, it's affected by the treatment charges as well and it's affected by sometimes the premium. So depending on those viables, we see that 10% to 20% is a good area where we want to be there. As always, we repeat, it's not a matter of asset with a very high EBITDA level it's more a security for selling our works in U.S. So that's why even the 10% to 20% is not something very high in comparison with the sales of the asset would be a very comfortable level to allocate all our works production in the U.S. is how we see the asset.

The next question comes from the line of Juan Rodriguez with Kepler Cheuvreux.

Can you hear me now?

We can hear you.

I have 2 quick questions on my side. The first one is on the cash position. I see that it has substantially contracted to EUR 106 million at end of '23. Do you expect any reversal of the free cash flow situation for '24? And what can we expect in terms of CapEx for the year? And the second is on the EBITDA bridge that you were signaling. Certainly, there is the treatment charge that remains, but we start to see a range that is going to be substantial correction. So can we say that you are comfortable with 2024 consensus number that probably is around EUR 2,027 million, if I'm not mistaken. So do you feel comfortable for the time being with this number?

I will take the cash flow question. Well, no, we don't expect any special item in 2024. We will provide, obviously, more color on the full year guidance when we report Q1 numbers because typically, we do so once the treatment charge has been settled. In terms of CapEx, I mean, from -- you can always split the CapEx in 2 sections maintenance regular CapEx will be around EUR 40 million to EUR 45 million, okay. Obviously, the maintenance CapEx in 2023 have some extraordinary items, which were one-off and we are not going to repeat those in 2024. And then the growth is going to focus primarily on the U.S. on the Palmerton plant in Pennsylvania. I think we will provide more color, but then you can pencil in around EUR 100 million of total CapEx, including regular maintenance and growth. And Asier will explain to you there.

I think that you guys are trying always to ask for the guidance figure for us. Now again, it's early to say this because no matter the consensus is 227 or not, could be there or not, depending once again on the zinc price is where we need a little bit more color for the next month, but moreover, as well as the treatment charge. So it's a figure, and we will confirm how we see definitely in the Q1. But I don't know if it is going to be far from that or probably not, but we cannot confirm now on.

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from the line of Lasse Stueben with Berenberg.

Just quickly to follow up on the CapEx comment you just made. So that would imply that you're expecting [ expansionary ] CapEx is about EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million. Would that just be Palmerton or are you kind of pencil in first CapEx into the ground in Guangdong? Or is there anything else that's coming into the growth CapEx for this year?

Well, as I said, lastly, we will provide more color on Q1, but basically maintenance CapEx of EUR 40 million to 45 million growth. CapEx will be focused on the Palmerton plant and here, we're talking about EUR 40 million. Then Guangdong, as Asier has explained, depending on the development throughout the year you can pencil in EUR 5 million, okay? But we don't see the amount of CapEx being invested in Guangdong throughout the year given the current status of the Chinese economy. And then finally, you can also pencil in some CapEx for the aluminum projects in Europe, where we're starting to get the permits, land and so on. So putting everything together, I think around EUR 100 million. We will fine-tune this number, but you can pencil in for a time being around EUR 100 million of total CapEx.

Great. And then one final question, just on the U.S. synergies. Can you just give an update? I know you commented that you're still expecting to capture the remaining synergies. Can you just tell us how you progress on making the operational changes in the U.S. assets?

The answer is yes. We're still fighting and keeping this in mind and more than in mind, we are working to capture the last hope to say, depending synergies in U.S. in the range of EUR 10 million or something like that. And we think that we are very close to capture this in '24.

The next question is from the line of Christoph Blieffert with BNP Paribas.

The first question is from China and here the profitability on your 2 plants. Could you give us some clarification whether the shipment of steel dust around the country impacts your profitability? And related to that, can you confirm or rule out that you have started paying for steel in China, please? this is number one.

Yes. Basically, what we see in China this year is probably early to say that is a recovery. So probably the level of steel production in the provinces where we are especially coming from [indiscernible], we are going to see this in the same level in '23. No matter this, we have in place permits for getting some dust for the surrounding provinces. So that's why we see some increase till the 90% utilization rate in Jiangsu based on the higher number of steel players. Same in Henan, but Henan, as always, we are saying is a couple of steps beside, and we need a little bit more time to consolidate the natural. Regarding the pricing depends on the same price containing material. Normally, it's a kind of formula base where you even get money if the zinc price is lower or you pay the zinc price containing material is very high. So it's not a matter to pay [indiscernible] depending on zinc-containing material. But basically, it's a formula base that is quite similar to other places that we are operating. This is an idea.

The second question is on U.S. operations. What do you expect in terms of EBITDA per ton for 2024?

You mean globally?

No, for the U.S.?

For U.S. probably, I think it's a little bit higher than the larger one.

Can you remind us on 2023, please?

We can send to you this, hold on -- Rafael will send that.

And the last question is on growth CapEx. 2024 is understood. What are your -- what is your thinking about 2025? Where do you see areas of growth in 2025 and room to invest most likely?

Well, as we have explained, Christoph, I mean, our growth plan is modular, and we have the ability to adapt the growth plan to the opportunities that we see. We -- 2025, probably if the Guangdong project in the third province of China goes ahead, that will require the CapEx and total plant CapEx is around EUR 45 million. So finally, we make all the negotiations with the steelmakers and we go ahead with the project that we will spend in 2025. And then there will be some -- the final bits and pieces from the Palmerton plant in the U.S., okay? I think when you step back and think about our 5-year program, I think with our cash flow generation, you can think about total CapEx per year for around EUR 100 million for the coming years, okay? And this is our duty to monitor leverage, dividend payout and growth topic. But you can pencil it around EUR 100 million, yes.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Rafael Perez for any closing remarks.

Thank you all for your questions. You can also contact the Investor Relations team of Befesa for any further clarification. We will now conclude the conference call and the Q&A session. Let me remind you that you can find the webcast and the dial-in details to access the recording of this conference call on our website www.befesa.com. Thank you very much to all of you, and have a good day.