Bellway p.l.c. (BWY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Bellway's half year results. Hopefully, you've had the opportunity to read our statement this morning and seen a strong set of results, which Keith will take you through in a few moments' time. There are a few highlights that I would like to draw to your attention. Volume output was ahead of last year at just under 5,700 homes, and that's despite a very challenging environment. Underlying profit before tax rose by almost 9% to GBP 327 million. We've continued with that land acquisition program, having contracted a further 8,700 plots in the period, taking our commitment to almost 29,000 plots in the past 18 months. And we plan a sustainable reduction in dividend cover to around 2.5x of underlying earnings by FY '24. Our key strategic priorities remain unchanged: volume growth; value creation; and Better with Bellway, a commitment to act in a responsible and sustainable manner. First, though, I would like to talk about the opportunity for growth. Keith and I will pick up value creation and Better with Bellway later in the presentation. In the period, the market has been strong. Reservation rates have been ahead of expectations, whilst the planning system has been slow and frustrating. The net effect of this has resulted in selling outlets being lower than last year despite sales being ahead by almost 6%. But it's that outlet growth that's got my attention. When Help-to-Buy effectively closes towards the end of this calendar year and when the sales market moderates, which it inevitably will, then outlet numbers will be key to the health of our business. And that land investment that I referred to at the start is critical in delivering both outlet and volume growth in the years ahead. And our land performance in the first half of securing just under 8,700 plots is likely to be matched or certainly something similar in the second half. We have acquired a broad range of medium and larger sites across a healthy geographical spread, with a mix ranging from 100 plots in Durham to 500 plots in new market. And certainly, the land market is busier than 2021, but we are still able to deliver an average intake margin of around 23%. And if we start to look further ahead, our new healthy land bank provides more confidence to open new businesses. We currently have 22 businesses across Scotland, England and Wales. And notably, we only had 13 offices back in July of 2013. That's 9 new businesses in the past 9 years. We are very good at delivering organic growth. And we have plans to open a 23rd division. South Yorkshire will open towards the end of 2022, and we have already acquired 4 sites in the local area, and this business should deliver its first homes in 2024. And we also have plans beyond South Yorkshire, which I may, subject to market conditions, discuss later in the year. So what does all this land investment outlet growth in new divisions being in volume terms? In the short term, we remain on target to deliver 10% volume growth both this year and next, and that's despite the challenges posed with materials and planning. In the longer term, our successful period of investment across the past 18 months, coupled with our strong track record of opening new divisions, will form the foundations for a business capable of delivering more than 16,000 homes per year. And structurally, we need at least 26 divisions to achieve that ambition, so that gives you an idea of the level of investment or infrastructure required. Inevitably, there will be challenges ahead: mortgage rates cost of living and, of course, the sad and worrying events in Ukraine. Now I'm happy to take some questions on growth towards the end. But first, for our results, Keith.

Thanks, Jason, and good morning all. We've delivered a good first half trading performance, delivered by the positive sales market, our strong focus on production and our early investment in land. Total revenue at GBP 1.8 billion was 3.5% of the comparative period, and underlying operating profit was 12% ahead at GBP 332 million. Underlying profit before tax was 9% ahead at GBP 327 million. We incurred a further net expense of GBP 20 million in relation to legacy build and safety issues, and I'll talk about that in more detail in a short while. After taking this into account, earnings per share rose by 9.3% to 203.1p. We're pleased to have been able to grow volume to almost 5,700 homes, especially given the very strong comparator period and the constraints facing production across the wider sector. As was the case in FY '21, volume will again be weighted towards the first half of the financial year, which is simply a reflection of on-site construction status. That said, output in H2 will be stronger than last year. And as a result, I still expect that we'll be able to increase volume for the full year by around 10% to over 11,100 homes. The proportion of higher value private completions rose to 83% of the total, a reflection of the strong private market, and this has helped drive the 2.9% increase in the average selling price to GBP 312,000. We've experienced mid-single-digit house price inflation. Well, that's had more of a benefit to the order book rather than the H1 outturn and are, therefore, now expected that the average selling price for the full year will exceed GBP 305,000. I still expect some moderation in the average selling price in FY '23, and that simply reflects land buying in earlier years, when some of the units we profited were slightly lower volume in order to help mitigate the end of Help-to-Buy from March 2023. We sold 19 units under joint venture arrangements at an associated profit of GBP 1 million, and this will exceed GBP 5 million for the full year. But in FY '23, there will be a small loss, which reflects the upfront funding costs as some longer-term schemes which are coming through the pipeline. Regionally, the market has been strong in all divisions where we operate, especially for larger homes on the edge of settlements, which lend themselves to the trend for hybrid working requirements. Ashberry still performs well on our larger sites and accounted for 8% of output. Our London represented 7% of completions at an average selling price of GBP 380,000. We've provided an additional gross amount of GBP 22 million in relation to legacy build and safety issues or GBP 20 million net of recoveries. The increase relates to cost inflation but also additional scope of works on some schemes which have previously been under investigation and, therefore, did not form part of our provision. We've now set aside a total of GBP 187 million since 2017, which demonstrates our responsible approach and our determination to comprehensively resolve known issues. We've also recognized recoveries of GBP 30 million over the same period, and the outstanding provision at the 31st of January was GBP 128 million. Our provision includes building owned but also those where we have sold the freehold and we are no longer a responsible person. It includes buildings over 18 meters in height and also those in the 11- to 18-meter category. It includes buildings constructed by ourselves but also where we've outsourced the construction to a main contractor. It includes a range of fire safety issues including cladding, insulation and fire stopping problems, all in line with the requirements and the government's now withdrawn consolidated advice note. And importantly, the period of our review is generally in line with our warranty period of 10 to 12 years. We do not yet know how fire engineers and their insurers and, perhaps, more importantly, how surveyors and mortgage lenders will interpret the new PAS note, which is intended to have a result at a more proportionate response to critical fire safety measures while also working with government on the HBF to create solution to help deal with industry-wide critical safety issues on older buildings beyond the 10- to 12-year life span of our review. Jason will provide more detail in his update. Before net fire safety costs, operating profit was GBP 332 million, and the operating margin was 18.7%. The main movements in the operating profit bridge are the increase in gross margin, which added GBP 27 million but also the rise in average selling price, which added GBP 10 million. The underlying gross margin was 22.3%, a 150-basis-point improvement compared to the prior half year but still a little below our land intake margin, which is around 23%. This is principally because COVID costs, first recognized in site valuations in FY '20, still have a moderating effect, with around GBP 10 million of those costs traded through the income statement in the period. The administrative expense rose to GBP 65 million because of further investment in operational teams to support land buying and to achieve growth. Cost inflation is a feature of the wider market, and there are upward pressures in relation to employee remuneration. We must respond in order to attract and retain talented people, but other costs are also rising, including insurance premiums and IT costs, and are, therefore, expect a further increase in the admin overhead in the second half of the year. The underlying operating margin was 18.7%, and I expect an underlying operating margin of around 18.5% for the full financial year. The moderation reflects a more efficient absorption of overheads in the first half of the year, driven by the higher number of completions and the corresponding weighting of revenue. It's too early to guide yet in detail for the margin in FY '23 other than the said expected further improvement upon the FY '22 outturn. Crucially, it's worth mentioning taxation, and our effective tax rate of 18.6% was slightly below the standard rate of corporation tax of 19%, and we'll incur a further 4% in relation to the residential property development tax from April of this year, and then corporation tax will increase by 6% from April 2023. The table on the chart shows how these changes are likely to affect Bellway's standard tax rate, which is expected to rise and then stabilize at 29% in FY '24. Our balance sheet is robust and transparent, and I will cover larger items separately. But you can see the fire safety provision of GBP 128 million, and land creditors are low at GBP 349 million. Looking at cash, we generated GBP 24 million from operations, not after having made a net investment of GBP 124 million in land over the past 6 months. We ended the period with net cash of GBP 196 million, and adjusted gearing inclusive of land creditors was low at 4.5%. For the year end, net cash is likely to be around GBP 150 million. But of course, that depends on the final outturn and the amount we ultimately spend on land. Overall, land bank has risen to 57,000 plots, which represents 5.6x output if you look at the last 12 months' worth of completions. This demonstrates the results of our land buying strategy, but you'll also see that our overall land bank includes 28,000 plots sitting within the pipeline. This is higher than usual and is a reflection of the delays that we are experiencing in the planning system. On a positive note, the receipt of planning on these sites will provide outlet growth next year and will underpin our growth ambitions. We also have 30,000 plots sitting within our strategic land bank, with the increase achieved because of our recent investment in our strategic land teams. These are longer-term, more speculative investments, which we hope will serve the group well in the years ahead. Overall, our total land bank now stands at almost 90,000 plots, and the total invested in land is now GBP 2.6 billion, a rise of GBP 370 million compared to 12 months ago. This does have some drag on asset turn, but it is necessary to secure the long-term prospects of the group. In relation to construction-based work in progress, there are more plots in production compared to 12 months ago, and this will help us to deliver a stronger second half performance compared to last year. With constant management of the supply chain, we can deliver over 11,100 homes, as I mentioned earlier. Note that the investment in part-exchange properties is only GBP 5 million, which is again a reflection of the strong second half market. You only have to go back to 2020 to see that PX balances used to routinely approach GBP 50 million. So as Help-to-Buy ends in effect for reservations from December this year, we've got the balance sheet capacity to invest more in PX, should they be needed, in order to preserve sales rates. We're increasing the interim dividend to 45% -- to 45p per share, a rise of nearly 29%, which is ahead of the increase in underlying earnings. This is about rebalancing. And in that regard, I expect that we'd declare roughly 1/3 of the dividend with the interim results with the remaining 2/3 to be declared with the final results in October. And for the full year, I expect this -- to report a dividend cover of 3x underlying earnings. Beyond that, I expect the dividend cover to reduce the 2.5x underlying earnings by FY '24, and that will be driven by strong investment returns and enhanced cash generation. The reduction in cover will secure increasing distribution to shareholders despite the 53% increase in tax rate over the same period. At the same time, our strong balance sheet will continue to provide resilience in the context of global uncertainty, but it also offers strategic flexibility with sufficient capital to invest to achieve future growth. In addition to the dividend return, we're also delivering compounded NAV growth. Annualized return on equity was 14.9%. Our pretax return on capital was high at 19.8%. This has been driven by the improvement in operating margin and has been delivered whilst also growing our land bank. We mentioned last October that this year, we would be finalizing our targets in respect to Better with Bellway, which is our approach to responsible and sustainable business practices. We've set 8 priority areas, all of which are integral to the operations of the business. And each target has a headline KPI together with a subset of detailed targets, which is supported by a range of activities across the group. These are not built on ESG actions but are, instead, core operational work streams that we are trying to embed within the business. Our ambition is to be considered towards the front of the pack across each of the 8 priority areas. We've highlighted 3 flagship priorities, which are fundamental to the future success of the business where we believe we can take a lead role. Jason will discuss our approach to becoming an employer of choice and customers and communities, and I will outline our approach towards carbon reduction, and you can see more background on all of our priority areas on our website. In respect to carbon reduction, we have proposed 2 targets, and both are aligned to the Paris Agreement, which is intended to restrict the rise in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100. Our first target is to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by around 45% by 2030 in absolute terms. These emissions relate to carbon we either generate ourselves or carbon generated indirectly through our activities, such as our use of electricity throughout our offices. Overall, Scope 1 and 2 emissions represent only 1% of output, but our target is important to foster cultural change throughout the organization. Initiatives such as energy-saving campaigns, the use of green electricity in our offices, biodiesel in our site telehandlers and our new green car scheme, which we plan to launch in August this year all make a small difference, but they do help to engage colleagues in our strategy. Our second target is more challenging, but it is to reduce Scope 3 emissions by 55% on a physical intensity basis by 2030. Scope 3 emissions relate to embodied carbon arising in the construction of our product and throughout the supply chain. They also include regulated carbon emissions, which are those arising through customers' own use of their homes and which are targeted by the Future Homes Standard. Meeting the ambitious requirements of this standard for homes built in 2025 and beyond will help us to achieve up to 40% of the 55% target reduction. But we intend to go further. For example, we plan to install electric vehicle charging points in our homes ahead of the building regulation requirement. We are reviewing our construction processes to look for alternatives to cementitious materials, which account for the bulk of our embodied carbon, and we're also trialing timber frame kits beyond the traditional heartland of Scotland. We don't yet have all the answers, but we recognize that we have much to learn. But Better with Bellway is a genuine and an exciting approach to business. It's about creating a long-term, sustainable and responsible business model that benefits all our stakeholders. We recognize that there's more to do, but our fair approach to business is already part of our DNA, and we have an enthusiastic team determined to build upon our existing strong culture. To summarize today's presentation, we're still on track to deliver over 11,100 homes at an average selling price in excess of GBP 305,000. I expect a full year underlying operating margin of around 18.5% with further improvements in FY '23 while increasing the dividend, and I expect it to be covered by underlying earnings around 3x this year before the dividend cover reduces to 2.5x underlying earnings by FY '24. The balance sheet is solid, providing resilience and strategic flexibility. And we have launched Better with Bellway, our new approach to sustainability, which includes ambitious carbon reduction targets which go beyond the requirements of the Future Homes Standard. I will now pass it back over to Jason.

Thank you, Keith. If I could start with trading. Market demand is strong. In the period, reservations have increased by almost 6%. And notably, that's from a reduced number of outlets and a reduced dependency on Help-to-Buy, now accounting for only 18% of reservations. And whilst the Help-to-Buy scheme doesn't formally end for another 12 months, the current rules only permit or qualify homes that are built complete by December of 2022. And now into production constraints, coupled with the strength of our order book, the number of homes available for Help-to-Buy is becoming limited. The pricing environment still remains positive. We have benefited from mid-single-digit house price inflation as demand continues to be greater than supply, and demand has strengthened as the prospect of hybrid working becomes ever more permanent and families continue to look for new homes in new locations and with more space. The mortgage market is still very supportive despite 3 recent base rate increases. Although notably, the base rate is only just back to prepandemic levels of 0.75%. The impact on mortgage rates has been fairly modest. For example, a 2-year fix on a 90% LTV mortgage with a purchase price of GBP 325,000 has only gone up by about GBP 35 a month. And, interestingly, as Help-to-Buy fades, we are now seeing many more lenders in the market with 90% LTV products and at very competitive rates, around 2% to 3%. That said, lenders may well increase their rates again in the year, but that's from very historically low levels. For me, though, it's the cost of living. It's that squeeze on family incomes that may moderate the market or certainly bring sales rates back to more normal levels. But we are not there yet as you can see from current trading. If I could refer you to the table on the screen, the first 6 weeks since the 1st of February have, again, seen strong sales. Reservations are ahead by almost 11% at 291 per week, and we continue to see good demand from all sections of our market. And as many of you know, the long-term health of the housing market is largely driven by access to competitive mortgage products and good employment levels, both of which remain positive. So when sales rates or HPI begin to moderate, the longer-term investment case is still quite compelling. Our order book remains healthy at over GBP 2.2 billion, and outlets, whilst lower around 250, should start to increase in 2023 as we begin to benefit from that land investment. Turning now to land and planning. I've already discussed land in my introduction. It's worth spending a few minutes talking about the delays in the planning system. You can see from our land bank table where we've had that growth spurt. We've added over 13,000 plots to our owned and controlled land bank, an increase of some 30% or more than an extra year of supply. But much of that is yet to translate into a detailed consent. Planning authorities are still largely working remotely, and there is an absence of any real engagement. Permanently working from home is certainly not an effective long-term solution. Moving on to production. There are 2 principal issues worth discussing: firstly, the supply of materials and then the subsequent cost inflation. There are signs that the pressures on the supply of materials are beginning to ease and that the material shortages are becoming less pronounced as the supply chain begins to meet demand. But that may change again due to the events in Ukraine. We do source some engineered timber from Poland, and some of our steel products have the raw materials sourced from Ukraine. So we may have to look at alternative routes. There are no signs, however, that build cost inflation is beginning to abate, still running at around 5% or 6% per annum and, in some instances, much higher. We are making every effort to mitigate these cost pressures through alternative procurement ideas, plotting efficiency and the benefits of scale that are delivered from our Artisan range of standard house types. We do expect production constraints to continue through 2022, but they do feel more manageable. Now for Better with Bellway. Being an employer of choice is an ambition not only to attract new people but to upskill and retain our best talent and from a variety of backgrounds, and that's reflected in our staff surveys where 89% of our colleagues recommend Bellway as a great place to work. And being an employer of choice is not just about having a flexible work policy or offering more benefits. It's about enabling people to reach their full potential. Following the success of our senior leaders program, we are now planning a middle managers program to support both career progression and also provide a pipeline to develop women into senior leadership roles. We are also keen to increase the number of our earn and learn roles. This year, we plan to recruit a further 100 new graduates, young people and apprentices into a wide range of roles across the group. Another key priority for Better with Bellway is our customer-first agenda and only intend to provide a brief update, but it is a very important improvement to the operational side of our business. Customer first is about creating a step change in customer service levels. For too long, we have accredited ourselves as a 5-star housebuilder, but I want that backed up with a 5-star customer service, particularly in those early years of homeownership. Policies are now complete. Training a new technology is well advanced, and our new customer experience director has recently joined, all in good time for the official customer-facing launch in the summer of this year. We have set ourselves some ambitious targets despite a very high 8-week customer satisfaction score of almost 94%. We plan to improve our 9-month score from 81.5% to 90% across the next 4 years. And now for the very important issue of building safety. The complex issue of building safety has challenged everyone who has been involved. Bellway has taken a responsible approach and not just set money aside. We have completed several developments to date and currently have a further 13, with improvement works ongoing and a pipeline beyond that. Our approach has been simple: to fix or fund any building above 11 meters, irrespective of ownership, going back to around 10 or 12 years, the length of the warranty period. Bellway supports the HBF ambition to find an industry-wide solution and ensure the leaseholder doesn't pay. And we also welcome the government's suggestion to adopt a more risk-based approach to safety improvements on these legacy buildings. However, to achieve a more proportionate approach on older buildings, it needs the support of both lenders and the RICS. This is not something the housing industry is able to deliver alone. Our current provision of GBP 187 million is a reasonably accurate assessment of our liability going back up to 12 years. The government's ambition is to extend that period to 30 years, and it is clear that any such wider commitment will result in a further significant provision as Bellway has a long history of developing apartment schemes. And whilst it's too early to be prescriptive on future costs or liabilities, our experience and provision today will form the basis in which to calculate any further liability. In the short term, we intend to continue with our pipeline of improvements whilst we continue discussions with both government and the HBF. And finally, outlook. I remain optimistic about the prospects for the group. Our investment in land of almost 29,000 plots in the past 18 months has very much changed the landscape for Bellway and provides a good platform for sustainable growth. We remain on target to deliver 10% volume growth both this year and next. And through Better with Bellway, we have set ourselves ambitious sustainability targets. Our margin is improving from a base of 18.5%. And this, together with our growth strategy and a sustainable reduction in dividend cover, will lead to ongoing value creation for our shareholders. Thank you. I will now hand over to the moderator for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Will Jones from Redburn.

Two areas, if I could, please. First, just around continuing fire safety and just making sure that we understand those closing remarks there, Jason, in terms of any additional provision that was taken as you go to look back, say, 30 years. Are you effectively saying that there's a proportionate increase as we go from, say, 10 to 12 years up to 30 compared to the cumulative provision that you've taken so far, just as a, again, ballpark thinking? And then just in terms of any early view you might have about when monies might be spent, presumably the practical reality, this is a process that would happen over several years. And then the second was just on -- really around 2023 and early guidance commentary for that year, just 2 parts really. Firstly on the slight ASP moderation. Can we just be clear, is that based on current house prices, i.e., if you did see house price inflation between now and then that might not apply to the same degree? And the second one within that was just when you talk about higher margin in operating margin terms, '23 and '22, just I guess, the building blocks to that, I appreciate you're not probably talking big movements. But what drives that? And what early view might you have on build cost inflation through that year?

Will, before I start, if I could just mention to everyone on the call. If Keith and I sound like we don't know what we're talking about any more than usual, it's because Keith is working from home and, unfortunately, tested positive with COVID but, fortunately, nearly recovered, and I'm in the office, so please do excuse any delays. Turning to your question, Will. I'll take the first one, and hopefully, Keith will pick up the second. On building safety, it's too early for me to be prescriptive. But I'll tell you what I do know and what the likely outcome will be. As you've heard, Bellway have gone back up to 12 years. The government are asking us to extend that commitment to 30 years. The discussions, Will, are ongoing with government and are positive. And we are working to their deadline of trying to come to an agreement by the 31st of March. But that date is -- it's entirely possible that, that could slip, but I don't think by a long period, days or a week or so. But as you've rightly mentioned, should we sign up to the government pledge, it will result in a further significant provision. And I look at things simply, and Keith will take -- get involved into the detail. But if we're extending our commitment by up to 18 years, and if you were to calculate that on a pro rata basis, it leads us to a further significant provision. And there's a final point, Will, of a levy that we haven't discussed, so you didn't mention, and that's the prospects of a levy is still ever present. And that's a question probably for the government but not me, but it's still likely that, that levy were -- is designed to fund orphaned buildings or buildings where there is no known developer that's going to pick up any repair work. So I hope that answers most of your question on building safety, Will. Keith, could I ask you to do the FY '23, please?

Yes. I may just talk up on building safety as well as maybe what we've [ offered ] at the start of the call. Jason talked about proportionate increase. The real answer is, at this stage, we don't know because we do not know the extensive -- and it seems we have problems going back 30 years. But as we start and sit today as a best guess as a starting estimate, I think a proportionate increase is a sensible approach to take. You asked how long it would take us to spend that money. Well, look, we've been putting amounts aside for fire safety since 2017, and over that period, we spent GBP 60 million to GBP 70 million. This will not be an immediate cash outflow. It will take several years for us to spend this cash, not least because we don't know what all the issues are yet because there maybe issues we don't yet know about. And then once you do know the issues, you go through a process of designing, planning, builders' consent, residents' consent and [indiscernible], and that can take some time. And I'll say that in the context of our balance sheet with almost GBP 3.5 billion of net assets, which is very well capitalized. Any additional amount we put aside will not affect our growth ambitions, and these are in the context of our additional dividend cover, which I mentioned in my speech as well. In terms of the guidance for FY '23, I don't want to be too prescriptive in March 2022. Without cost price inflation, from today's point, I expect the overturn price to nudge just below GBP 300,000. House price inflation could make that better. And obviously, mix can change that as well. And in terms of an operating margin, I've previously given a midterm guidance of 18% to 19%. I'd certainly expect to be towards the top end of that range next year. And if the current dynamic continues in terms of pricing outstripping costs, then you might get a touch above that. But I think that's one for later in the year before we go into that level of detailed guidance.

The next question comes from Aynsley Lammin from Investec.

Three for me, I think. So just firstly, on the average outlets. I think you're saying you're currently at 250. Just how much visibility and confidence have you got as you go into FY '23 that, that increases? Do you expect that to get up to the kind of 278 to 280 mark that you had last year? And second question, just on the affordable versus kind of private home split. Is that back up to around the 20%, 21% level for the full year? And then just on admin costs, I think GBP 65 million in the first half. Is it okay to kind of double that for the full year around GBP 130 million?

Aynsley, if I do 1, maybe Keith can pick up 2 and 3. Normally, when we give you guidance, Aynsley, on outlets, we're fairly accurate. But the problem we have at the moment is the planning system, so we're sort of churning through our current outlet. So rate is not just because we've got higher-than-expected sales rates, but they're not coming through -- the new ones are not coming through the planning system. So we gave a number I give you to some extent is a bit of a guess, but I would suggest outlet growth into '23 is probably in the range of 5% to 10%. I'd like to get up to the figure that you mentioned. But I'm sort of dependent upon a dysfunctional planning system at the moment. So that's the best guess. Keith?

Private-social split, I think you're right, Aynsley, around 20% social by the end of the year. And of course, that's got some influence on the average selling price, which is why that full year guidance is in excess of GBP 305,000, which is slightly lower than what we've achieved in H1. And then in terms of the administrative expenses, I expect a slight uptick in H2, maybe GBP 2 million or GBP 3 million or so on the H1 outturn. And then as you go into the next financial year because of the pressures I talked about in my speech, I think 4% as an absorption rate is a sensible place to be for FY '22.

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take the next question from Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS.

Two questions. Sorry to come back on the provision. I mean -- just to be clear, I think I was calculating if you just gross up the GBP 187 million, I think that's what you were basically saying, for a further 18 years, I guess that's GBP 280 million. So the question, I guess -- so incremental GBP 280 million roughly. I guess the question is, do you think there's any chance of any recoveries? Or do you think it's dating back -- too far back and, therefore, unlikely? And I guess, secondly, I'm guessing these would be tax deductible expenses. Just to clarify if the thinking is right. And then I was interested about your kind of Scope 3 targets in particular that you kind of called out. And obviously, that feeds into -- some of it is going to be regulated. But have you given some kind of thought as to what the cost would be, I don't know, on a per unit basis of, I don't know how you best quantify this to actually achieve this based on today's technologies, I guess?

Keith, could you pick up tax and recoveries in this? Thank you.

Yes. I'll do that. So Gregor, I don't want to give a figure on the additional provision until and if we sign up to have pledge and then we've got more idea of the exact time plan. But I think the maths that you're using to come up with a proportionate increase is a sensible basis, but the reality is our approach will be much more detailed. And look, we need to provide the problems which you don't yet know about, as I mentioned earlier, and that's really complicated calculation, so there will be a range of outcomes, but [ we'll get ] along the sort of lines we were thinking about. There will be source for additional recoveries over and above the GBP 30 million we've achieved to date, but the majority of those recoveries will relate to it within the past 12 years or so because once you go beyond that, in general terms, the ability to recover is greatly diminished because you're out of time from a contractual position. So I wouldn't go away and think there's a tremendous amount that we could receive from our way, but there will be some more [ income ]. On tax, our latest advice is yes, any additional amount we put aside will be tax deductible. So obviously, that will reduce the reduction in NAV by whatever tax credit we get assuming that, that advice remains robust, and there's no reason to suggest that we won't do. On the Scope 3 targets, well, effectively, there are 2 elements to the Scope 3 targets. One is the Future Homes Standard, and the second is different things generally within our construction processes to reduce the embodied carbon. With regards to the Future Homes Standard, I'd probably point you to our earlier estimates where we would say we think that would cost us 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes per plot on average. We hope that will come down as we do more in investigative works with 2 other trials that we've got ongoing at the moment. And of course, that is factored in to allow buy-in criteria. And that will help us achieve 35% to 40%, with the 55% target carbon reduction. The remaining element level, Gregor, is more of an unknown because that is more speculative. That's about moving the timber frame, moving the concrete bricks and look with alternates. And we haven't got all of the answers for that yet. In some ways, that will be cost neutral, and then actually, you might even find that you have some cost benefits over time, but there's a lot. We wanted to go in [ different places ]. There's a lot of investigative work we do. There could be changes in build processes. I can't give you an accurate cost, but I wouldn't go away thinking it's going to be a downward pressure on the margin because I think we're working to make sure that that's not the case.

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take the next question from Glynis Johnson from Jefferies.

I'm afraid I'm going to come back on the same issue actually in terms of provisions. Can you can talk about a number of unknowns? Can you just clarify, though, your provision, as it sits today, does that include an estimate for all buildings under investigation within that 10- to 12-year period and, therefore, the uncertainties of what you're referring to the older buildings? Or is there still some buildings within that 10, 12 years where you don't yet know the costs and haven't yet provisioned? And then the second question, I suspect I'm pushing you too far, but just in terms of the total number of buildings that are under investigation because -- with all you're very big focus in terms of growth, the question in terms of allocation and resource to actually fixing the buildings, do you have concerns about your ability to be able to deliver on your growth expectations given the amount of remediation that you're going to have to put your teams to at least supervise, if not do the work for?

I'll do the first element, Jason, and you might pick up on the second. So the existing provision, which is 10 to 12 years, includes all known issues on those within that period and those which are under investigation, which on the balance of probability, we think will result in that being an issue. So where there's inconclusive investigations, which we haven't yet had a formal opinion on when we look at it and think, look, that's likely to have a problem given our experience today. So it's a fairly full approach. Now there could be a couple of -- it could be sometimes with the stock creep, where the issues are slightly more complicated than you first thought and the design solution is more complex than your first thought. But we have put a prudent cost allowance in, and it should take that into account. But as we all know and learned from experience, these things never stay static.

Glynis, on your growth in time period, to look at these issues, my best guess is that it's been slow today in terms of our ability to repair some of these buildings. We've completed 4. We've got 13 under repair at the moment. And I would expect it could take us another 5 to 10 years to work through the 18- to 20-year program. So I don't think that time span is going to have a drain on our resources, which will affect our growth rate. And I'm always looking at teams in a positive manner. One of the strengths of Bellway is our operational ability. We are very organized, and we are very disciplined. So dealing with building safety will adopt a similar approach to we do with organic growth to open in new divisions. We'll have a proper business set up to deal with it. It will be managed properly -- supervised properly. And I don't expect it to have a drag on growth. I hope that answers your question.

Lovely. And if I can just do one cheeky follow-up. You talked about the GBP 22 million being sort of the build cost inflation. Should we be looking at that number relative to your provision and using that to calculate a percentage because, obviously, the risk of build cost increases on this remediation is something being given more scarce resources that we were focused on? So is that the right way to look at the build cost inflation for this particular type of work?

No, because there was some stock coop within that figure as well, which was part of the answer I referred to before. So I don't think you can extrapolate that as a build cost inflation figure going forward. It's just hugely complicated, Glynis, is the real answer, and I wouldn't do that. I would just say part of that GBP 22 million is inflation and, part of it, stock creep.

As there are no further questions, that will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.