Betr Entertainment Limited (BBT.AX) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the betr Entertainment Limited FY '26 Q2 Investor Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Andrew Menz, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thanks for joining us today for the betr Entertainment Limited quarterly business update for Q2 FY '26. I'm Andrew Menz, CEO of the company, and today, I'm joined by our acting Chief Financial Officer, Blake Matthews; and our Chief Operating Officer, Bill Richmond. Starting on Slide 3 of the presentation. Throughout the half and as previously communicated to the market at our Q1 results, betr has invested in strategic brand and marketing assets with our brand relaunch in September to highlight as well as enhancing our customer experience with a best-in-class Sky Racing integration and first-to-market live same game multi tracker. These one-off investments have set up profitable market share growth and further value creation for shareholders as we pursue our M&A ambition. These investments are not incidental. They are core to our strategy and reflect our confidence that having the strongest product and brand in market will ultimately be the key to our success. As a result, we continue to see ongoing market share gains with a first half turnover growth of 13% when backing out the impact of the TopSport customers contribution, significantly outpacing the market as a result of our disciplined strategic investment into organic growth channels and the ongoing strategic reactivation of the betr and BlueBet customer bases. Against this investment backdrop, sports and racing outcomes were notably favorable to customers over the peak wagering period of September to November with a 175 basis points impact to net win margin, which translated to an impact at the normalized EBITDA line of circa $7 million. Pleasingly, net win margin has reverted to north of 11% in the December to January period, giving us confidence in our long-term consistency. When combined with our front-weighted investment and an incremental EBITDA of $6 million, the company made an H1 normalized EBITDA loss of $13.2 million. We today announced that the company is now set up to deliver sustainable and meaningful profitable growth over the medium term. On the assumption that net win margins remain in their historical 10% to 11% range and without material changes to product fees and taxes, we expect to deliver H2 FY '26 normalized EBITDA of between $5 million to $8 million with increased scale and operating leverage expected to deliver FY '27 normalized EBITDA of $13 million to $19 million. We announced the share buyback program earlier in January for up to 10% of the issued capital of the company. The Board's view remains that our shares have and are trading under their intrinsic value. And finally, as we announced earlier in January, we continue to pursue value-accretive M&A opportunities with active discussions progressing with new and existing industry participants. We are highly confident in delivering on this strategy further leveraging the organic growth in the underlying business to create meaningful value for our shareholders. Our strategic investment in brand, product and customer experience is translating into sustained performance with headline turnover up 25% on the pcp and underlying turnover backing out the impact of TopSport customer base, increasing at circa 13%, substantially outperforming the broader market. Industry estimates suggest that the Australian wagering market expanded approximately 2% to 3% over the same period, and our underlying growth represents roughly 4x that market growth rate demonstrating that our strategic priorities are directly translating into greater market share. We expect to continue to take share over the next 12 months in which period we expect to gain payback on that brand and product investment. Moving to Slide 5. betr delivered record turnover of $444.4 million, up 25% year-on-year, generating a net win of $37.9 million. While net win came in below our target range due to the unfavorable Spring Carnival results, the business does continue to demonstrate strong underlying growth. The customer base remains a key strength with 163,504 cash active clients, a 5.7% increase quarter-on-quarter. This sustained expansion reinforces the effectiveness of the brand investment and the continued appeal of our product offering. Performance has normalized since December following those customer favorable outcomes in October and November that temporarily reduced net win margin. Encouraging momentum has returned with both December's exit rate and trading through January track back within our targeted net win margin range, giving us confidence as we progress into the second half. On to Slide 6. Historically, the first half of the fiscal year tends to produce lower EBITDA for our business and more broadly across the wagering industry, primarily due to seasonal factors, including increased spending during major events over the Footy Finals and Spring Racing Carnival, the confluence of front-weighted investment in a brand relaunch and marquee sports advertising, the deployment and development of Sky Racing across the platform and a one-off tech cost for product development, and sees an outsized impact on EBITDA for the business as well as the well-publicized customer-friendly results that combined to drive a $13.2 million normalized EBITDA loss for H1. Our investment is about building. We're already seeing encouraging momentum in digital performance, product engagement and key brand metrics, helping position us for scalable organic growth. At the same time, we're implementing disciplined cost measures to ensure every dollar is working harder and delivering greater impact to the business. We'll speak in more detail shortly about the impact of the customer-friendly results and the specific initiatives as to how the company front weighted its investment to take advantage of favorable market conditions in H1. I'll now hand to Bill to talk you through the impact of those customer-friendly results.

Thanks, Andrew. Turning to Slide 7. The Spring Carnival is one of the most significant events in the Australian wagering calendar, and this year, it delivered outcomes that were highly favorable to our customers. Specifically, there was a higher-than-normal concentration of bets placed on favorites, many of which had exceptionally high win rates. Six of the 8 highest back runners won compared to just 2 in the previous year, leading to lower operator margins and higher promotional costs, which are typical during premier events. betr's customer engagement strategy of being best odds on favorites over the carnival saw a disproportionate impact on the company's results when compared to peers. Customer-friendly results on NRL Grand Final Day and the following 4 Saturdays alone reduced our Q2 net win margin by approximately 175 basis points. When looking across half 2 in total, adverse results translated to an impact of the normalized EBITDA line of circa $7 million. These results, while challenging in the short term, are part of the natural volatility of the wagering industry though are likely to be repeated in the near future. Margins have already normalized since December, and we are seeing positive momentum heading into half 2 FY '26. Our December exit rate showed an 11% net win margin, and January trading to date is tracking at 10.8%. The return to at-trend results alongside the higher engagement and wagering activity from our front-end investments will translate into strong revenue conversion and improved EBITDA for the second half. Back to you, Andrew.

The next major factor was our strategic investment in driving growth, which management expects accounted for a $3 million impact on H1 normalized EBITDA. We made front-weighted investments in our brand relaunch and high-quality marketing assets, including partnerships with 7AFL and Fox Cricket as well as brand launch targeted campaigns on digital platforms, Meta and TikTok. These investments were strategically designed to coincide with major sporting events over the AFL finals and the Ashes being the premier events on the sporting calendar and to maximize exposure on the brand launch and engagement to our target audience. The results of our efforts are already evident. Between September and December, unprompted awareness of our brand increased by 19% and brand consideration grew by 16 points. These factors and our strategic and efficient digital engagement contributed to our active customer base growing 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and also to the underlying turnover growth in the business. The integration of Sky Racing into our platform has delivered clear and measurable uplift in customer value. Customers who engage with Sky Racing have increased their racing activity at a significantly higher rate than the broader customer base, demonstrating the product's ability to drive deeper engagement. High-quality racing vision delivers on a nonnegotiable customer expectation for Tier 1 wagering operators, and we are pleased with the impact that Sky Racing has already had since its launch. Customers viewing Sky have recorded a 15% increase in bet frequency and a 20% -- 27% uplift in turnover, which has translated into a 9% improvement in racing net win when compared to the overall betr customer base year-on-year. Beyond meeting customer expectations, the investment enables us to deliver a premium, tightly integrated experience through strong branding presence, embedded content and real-time odds incorporation. Sky Racing complements our previous investment into the Live Tracker feature, a global first innovation in our category. The My Promotions feature and enhanced form guides and bet placement processes, which when run parallel with our advertising strategy, have seen highly improved conversion rates and stronger customer ROIs. This approach aligns with our broader focus on active attention ensuring every dollar is spent where it drives meaningful engagement. Again, we do not anticipate elevated levels of product launch spend moving into half 2 and throughout FY '27. I'll now hand you to Blake to take you through the quarterly cash flow.

Thanks, Andrew. Looking now at Slide 10, which provides a summary of the quarterly cash flows. The company closed the quarter with cash of $41 million, inclusive of $13.6 million of customer balances. The Q2 operating cash outflow of $9.7 million primarily reflected front-weighted strategic investment in brand, product and Sky Racing, together with the temporary impact of customer-friendly wagering outcomes. With these investment initiatives largely complete and operating conditions normalized, the company expects a materially improved cash flow profile in half 2 FY '26, supported by lower incremental investment requirements, net win margin enhancement and increased operating leverage. The company maintains strong balance sheet flexibility and does not anticipate the need for external capital to execute its current operating plan or financial targets. Advertising and marketing outflows totaled $10.3 million, driven by increased promotional activity over the Spring Racing Carnival and targeted investment in brand awareness initiatives. Payments for business and investments of $42.1 million relates to the PointsBet share buyback as well as transaction and advisory costs associated with the PointsBet offer. Passing back to Andrew.

Turning to financial outlook. The second half of FY '26 begins with stronger momentum after significant upfront investments in H1, which temporarily impacted our financials but established a solid foundation for growth. With these initiatives now largely complete, the business enters half 2 with a leaner cost base, improved efficiency and clearer pathways to profitability at scale. With major spending now behind the business, this lower cost base allows more focus on efficiency and scaling. The customer -- the company expects normalized EBITDA of $5 million to $8 million in half 2 FY '26 and $13 million to $19 million in FY '27 as our operating leverage compounds. This guidance is based solely on the existing betr business and assumes modest industry turnover growth without relying on further step change assumptions or M&A as the company retains its optionality to capitalize on those inorganic growth opportunities. I'll now briefly turn our attention to our capital allocation strategy and the recently announced share buyback program. As a company, we are committed to delivering long-term value to our shareholders while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital management with this buyback initiative, a key component of that strategy. The Board believes that betr shares are currently trading below their intrinsic value. By repurchasing shares at this level, using only available excess cash, we can create immediate value for shareholders. At the same time, we are maintaining the financial flexibility needed to pursue transformative M&A opportunities in a consolidating market. This ensures that we can continue to execute on our growth strategy without compromising on our ability to deliver value to shareholders. Our financial outlook for half 2 '26 and for FY '27 is strong and reflects the significant progress we've made in building a scalable and profitable business. With major investment now behind us, normalized operating conditions and a leaner cost base, we are well positioned to deliver on our organic financial targets and critically execute on our M&A strategy to continue to create meaningful value for all our shareholders. Thank you, and we'll now open to questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first phone question comes from Phil Chippindale from Ord Minnett.

A couple of questions if I may. Firstly, I just want to touch on this organic growth. So you've highlighted the 13% growth in turnover versus the pcp, [ with 3 or ] 4x above system. Can you just talk to what are the key drivers around this, obviously, without divulging any secret sauce? Is this a product-led outcome, do you think? Or has it been perhaps more on the marketing spend side of things? Could you just sort of unpack that for us?

Yes. Phil, thank you for the question. Look, I think given the back weighting in the half, I know it's front weighted for the year, but the back weighting of the marketing spend with the brand relaunch happening in mid-September and the bulk of the investment around Fox Cricket in December, so much of the market share gains was facilitated by what the company has done and what we've told the market that we would do since the BlueBet and betr merger in reactivating those customer bases and enhancing the share of wallet from the customers that we acquired through that and also the acquisition of TopSport. So we're clearly seeing a higher turnover and net win per active at the moment, which suggests that we're growing share of wallet from those customers as well as continuing to acquire customers efficiently and expanding that user base as underlined by that sort of 6% user growth quarter-on-quarter.

Okay. And just on the marketing side of things, obviously, you've had some opportunities to take some interesting channels and some assets on and obviously yielding some results on that. What does that sort of look like from an outlook perspective? And I guess I'm trying to head towards this guidance and how we should think about marketing spend going forward.

Yes. Thanks, Phil. Marketing spend is front weighted, so the output in half 2 will be a reduction on that for approximately circa $10 million for the second half of the year.

Okay. And then just to unpack the guidance a little bit more. I think, Andrew, you mentioned earlier that the next 6 months and into FY '27, you've assumed 10% to 11% range for net win margin. If you can just confirm that. And then secondly, I think you referred to assuming modest market turnover growth. But just more specifically into your guidance, are you assuming that you grow at a similar level? Or are you expecting that you'll be able to grow above that? I'm just trying to understand the drivers for the $13 million to $19 million range for FY '27.

Yes. Of course. So on [ norm ] net win margin, we're modeling that about 10.4% historical rate that we've been able to achieve over a significant period of time. So definitely 10% to 11% remains the target range for the guidance that's been issued. In terms of the turnover assumption on the market, look, we're assuming that the turnover -- that the market will continue to grow in that low single-digit number, and we're assuming that we do continue to take share as we have. It does not need to be at 4x the market for us to get to the guidance numbers, but we do assume that we continue to take share as we get payback from the investments that we've made in those brand and product initiatives in the first half.

Okay. I understand. And then just final question for me and I'll jump back in the queue. Just on the PointsBet situation, what can you tell us about your strategy on PointsBet? And can you make a comment maybe on any engagement with them yet, noting you probably can't say too much?

Yes. Obviously, pretty commercially sensitive how we're thinking about that one. But as we've always said all the way along, the acquisition of a 27% stake in PointsBet is a strategically valuable asset that we believe will create real and meaningful value for our shareholders. So we've got a range of options available to us with that position, and we'll continue to have a think about the best way to manage that situation in a value-accretive way. We'll obviously have more to update the market if anything changes from now, but at the moment, it's a strategically valuable asset.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Leo Partridge from Morgans.

Appreciate the color around the guidance looking into next year. Most of my questions have been largely answered by -- asked by Phil. But just on the turnover growth you guys delivered, how much of that was coming from reactivated customers versus new cohorts?

I haven't got that breakdown in front of me, Leo. What I have seen anecdotally in the business is clearly a reactivation opportunity leading into Footy Finals and Spring, both through the TopSport customer base and also through the BlueBet and betr customer bases that we were able to reengage as we headed into that peak period. Customer acquisition is definitely on the increase. We're seeing reduced CPAs and definitely increased volume of customers coming through. But without having figures to hand, the majority of the turnover growth was winning share of wallet from the existing customer base.

Awesome. And just another one on the net win margin. I appreciate you've given some color in terms of expectations coming into the full year. But keeping it above that 10% post Spring Carnival, what kind of guardrails are in place to, I guess, limit the impact from these extreme like adverse results?

Yes, Leo, it's Bill. Yes, I think if you look at historically, particularly the business has delivered consistently above that 10% margin. Certainly, we returned to those historical numbers in December and January. So historically, if we look at results over that period of time and what we've been able to deliver as a management team and a trading team, yes, we remain really confident of delivering in that range. And as Andrew said, 10.4% is certainly what we modeled on, and if you look at our historicals, I think it gives us great confidence that we can continue to do that. Obviously, in that period, we've migrated in 2 businesses in -- betr and BlueBet together and then TopSport as well. So to get that consistently above the 10%, again, has been a really strong concentration for us. And if you look at those results, you can see on Slide 7, it really was just that concentration of really short price favorites over the Carnival, so again, just great confidence that we can get back to that normalized level.

Your next question is a follow-up question from Phil Chippindale from Ord Minnett.

Just wanted to circle back to TopSport. This is my last question. You've had the business for about 10 months, I think, as of this point. How would you grade yourself in terms of that acquisition so far? Now clearly, you were very focused on just making sure that you retain profitable business. Clearly, the turnover has decreased, but really, you've been focusing on those better results and net wins obviously improved a lot. But yes, just be interested in your reflection on how you think you've gone so far.

Yes, Phil, as you said, we certainly have concentrated on dragging that margin up to the historical levels of the business. And that's really been the focus because if it's operating sort of below those levels, yes, there's little value in it for us. So while obviously, we go back to those tough results for the quarter, that wasn't really linked to the TopSport mix change. It was very much across the overall business. So certainly, we've been able to drive that TopSport business for the quarters up to 9% and 10% just as that cohort. So that remains a focus because, really, it is about driving that profitable turnover from that business. So that's very much the focus going forward. And yes, as we said, we're confident about keeping that cohort as well as the rest of the business above 10% going forward. So all in all, I'm happy with how that's going.

There are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand the conference back to your speakers to address any webcast questions.

There's one question -- well, a question about the buyback and the considerations about the buyback are listed on the slide and in the announcement. There is no commitment on quantity or range, but further details about the buyback are contained in the presentation. And one question about key assumptions for the financial year '27 guidance, what needs to happen.

Yes, I'll speak to that. So '27 guidance is on the basis of that return to 10.4% long-term run rate and moderate growth on our current year trajectory for turnover to deliver guidance within that $13 million to $19 million range.

Yes, [ Sean ], thanks for sending that one through. Look, I think as Blake says, that we need to be 10% to 11%, and we continue to expect to outpace the market in terms of that turnover growth. On the assumption that those things hold true, we have a very good hold on controllable costs in the business with marketing benchmark at just over 20% of revenue, which is going to allow that disciplined growth to continue. So hitting those turnover and net win assumptions are other parts of the top end of that guidance range.

There are no more questions online.

Thank you all for joining the conference call this morning. We look forward to releasing our half 1 audited results, which we'll do so at the end of February. Thank you, and good morning.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.