Big River Industries Limited (BRI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Big River Industries Limited FY 2021 Half Year Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Chief Executive Officer, Jim Bindon. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning for the update on our half year results. I'm here with Steve Parks, our CFO of 13 years. He'll cover off the financial slides a little bit later as we get through the investor presentation document, which is what I'm going to work through this morning. I realize it's a busy reporting day. It's starting to get to the pointy end of the season. So I'm sure you've got plenty on. I'll try and keep this to about 30 minutes or so. So we'll try and get through it quite quickly. Guys, I'm just going to start on Page 3, which is Big River Today, just going through a little bit of really brief background for those who haven't seen the mix of our business before. As things stand, there are not really a lot of changes here from last time we reported. The main change would just be a slight increase in our exposure to building products in the top right-hand corner there under our various segments as we've grown in that building products category. It's clicked up a percentage point or 2. Plywood and specialty just down 1 percentage point or 2 on the last data you would have seen. But yes, look, the general mix of our business is pretty similar there. Exposure to Southern region or Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, just down the bottom right of that slide, continues to grow, not only because we've had several acquisitions there but the markets in South Australia and Western Australia, in particular, starting to come back after some quiet year. But really, I wanted to point you to the next slide, Slide 4, which just shows you how the mix of our business changes after the Timberwood. So TWP, at the top, I should remind you, is Timberwood Panels, which is the acquisition we're due to complete in a month's time, which just shows you a little bit of how the change -- the change in mix of our business once we include those pro forma numbers. So building products drops from sort of 56% to 46% of our revenue that's heavily exposed to the residential market, which you may be aware. Plywood and specialty, our highest margin category, jumps from 20% up to 34% with the addition of the Timberwood business, so a pleasing rebalance in a largely differentiated product category. Formwork supplies drops from about 24% to 20%, obviously, just purely from a dilutionary impact, but certainly, that's been an area that's actually grown during the last 6 months, which I'll come to. The other keynote on that slide, folks, is the Southern region, just down the bottom right there, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, our exposure increases to about 40% of group revenue there. Obviously, this business Timberwood is quite strong in the South. Good exposure in ACT and New South Wales as well, but you'll see Queensland comes back from 30% to 27%. Queensland has been historically very strong for Big River. That's where the company started, so -- prior to this acquisition at 30% of our revenue, so maybe a touch overweight in Queensland, but I think that balance is starting to feel right there. And certainly, just the client mix there, there'll be 8,000 active repeat trade accounts as part of the combined business once we complete the Timberwood deal. I won't go through all the different asset mixes there, but you can just see the mix. Probably the only other point to note there on Slide 4 is that our exposure to the remanufacturing sector or what sometimes refer to as the industrial market increases with the Timberwood exposure. So that business is well exposed to a range of manufacturers, who use a range of plywood and panel products in manufacturing process. They're not directly linked to the construction cycle. So again, that's quite a useful diversity away from the pure construction trends to be quite strongly linked to the general economy, let's say. So that's just a little bit on the change in mix of our business as at the end of March when Timberwood completes. We're just moving on to Page 5, folks, there, which is just the headlines from the first half we've just gone through. So you can see there revenues up about 6% to $133 million, $134 million. Pleasingly, we've got organic growth for the first time in a couple of years. Obviously, the construction cycle, particularly residential, has been trending down for a couple of years. That's been a bit of a headwind on our business. But like-for-like sales growth of 1%, obviously, headline growth of 6%, including some acquisition contribution, but 1% organic growth, but again, particularly pleasing, 7% like-for-like growth in the second quarter. So that was really a story of 2 quarters. You'll recall for those who saw our AGM documentation after Q1, we were down sort of circa 4% to 5% on revenue like-for-like in Q1, but obviously that turned around to 7% growth in the second quarter. So far, at the end of January, we're tracking at a very similar level to Q2. So there's been a clear change in the trend. In our view, the worm's turned in that construction cycle that's trended down for a couple of years. So that's pleasing. EBITDA. Obviously, we're now fully post AASB 16, given the comparison period used at system [ 2 ]. So $10 million for the half, up around 15%. Underlying net PAT up around 38% to $3.1 million. Working capital and cash conversion, Steve will cover that off in more detail, but right within the Board's range there. And then obviously, we've got a slide on this, but yes, obviously, as a result of the announcement of consolidating our manufacturing sites onto the one site as a result of the fires in Southern New South Wales, then there will be -- there's a noncash impairment on the Wagga assets of about $9.4 million after tax. So I've got some more detail on that later. That's obviously impacted our statutory results but is clearly required given the change in manufacturing mix as part of that strategy. So just on the operating highlights, just running through a few of the points. One trend that we've seen since we've listed in 2017, working hard on squeezing up our margin, our distribution level. It's grown every half year since we listed, up about another 54 basis points for the year, and that was -- sorry, for the half year. That was despite some pretty sharp product price increases and certainly material increases in international freight rates for the quite substantial volumes that we now import. So that was a bit of a distinct headwind that's impacted the whole industry as well as ourselves, but we still managed, I should say, to etch out 54-point increase in our gross margin. So that's quite pleasing. Just grabbing a few highlights from a revenue perspective. The Formwork segment, which is -- the company's a market leader in, grew 4% despite the fact that multi-res and the commercial segment is certainly quite soft still. So some good market share gains. And I think the strength of our supply chain, both local manufactured assets as well as importing out of both Europe and China, I think, has put us in a very strong position, particularly when there's been some product shortages in the last 6 months. So that's what's really driven the revenue growth in the Formwork sector, not so much the addressable market. In my view, it's been more about some of those positive initiatives around share. And obviously, manufacturing cost-out that will be a theme. You've heard me talk about before, for those who have been on other calls, as we wound back our exposure to commodity products in the manufacturing side of the business, focusing on higher-value products. We stripped another $1.4 million of cash cost out of the manufacturing business in the first half, taking to a total of around $7 million since 2018 as we refined our manufacturing strategy, reduced output and increased our import volume. So I think that continues to be managed well, and that certainly helped to more than double our manufacturing profit contribution. That's a line that we've always identified in our P&L. Steve will run through that a little bit more later, but certainly a pleasing turnaround in the manufacturing business has been a real highlight of the first half. And just quickly on a strategic perspective is a slide on the Timberwood acquisition. So yes, that's -- I think that's a pleasing addition to the business that will be completed at the end of March, and the capital raise, which some of you will be aware of, was completed in December to fund that deal. The second, I guess, key strategic change is the consolidation of our manufacturing sites, which I referred to, and there was a $150 million bushfire grants scheme, joint funded by the federal and state governments. And our company was successful in receiving $10 million grant under that program to consolidate our sites. So I've got a little bit more detail on that, but certainly quite a change in our business that -- whilst it can be viewed as negative in the short term, I think it creates some good long-term benefits for the company. The Bridge System product, one of our highest margin products, really good growth during the year, and we've expanded our product offer there to also include the full installation. In some cases, our team of 4 people actually installed 5 bridges in 5 days. And those roads would have, otherwise, been closed for typically weeks, if not months, to install those bridges in situ, but they were pre-manufactured in our factory and then installed on site by our team. So I think our offer in that space, regional bridge management, is certainly improving every year, and it's added substantially to our bottom line in this half. And our underlying EBITDA margin, something we've identified as one of our key financial goals, improving our EBITDA margin, which had dropped, certainly continue to improve in the first half, up another 60 basis points versus the same period last year. So I think some pleasing results on the financial front as well as the strategy front there. Just moving on to Slide 6, just a little bit more color on some of those operational details I've touched on. Again, I won't go through the headlines on revenue. I've mentioned that. But just to break it down a little bit, it's always a mix story, as is the case in construction all the time. So we've got good solid sales growth, revenue growth in Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia and the ACT. Weaker results in New South Wales and Victoria. They are probably the 2 states most affected by the multi-res construction slowdown, where we've got a high share in that particular market segment as well as some of the COVID restrictions that lingered a little bit longer in Victoria, in particular, compared to some of the other states. So the results out of New South Wales and Victoria are certainly not as strong as the other states, but certainly, overall, some good growth, as I mentioned on the introductory slide. New Zealand revenue was actually down a touch. They had a very strong half last year, just down a few percentage points there, but certainly, the businesses there have a significant exposure to commercial construction, things like airport, university, retail and entertainment projects. As you'd be aware, CapEx into that segment was halted in -- with breakneck speed during COVID. So understandably, that's impacted some of those major commercial projects, but the business has done very well with diversifying into the other certainly residential and civil. And there's still some commercial activity, of course. So we're quite pleased with the result out of New Zealand, even though the headline revenue was down a touch. Formwork and building products, as I mentioned, good organic growth out of those segments, again, which is pleasing, particularly on the strength of the civil market in Formwork and also the renovations market in residential. So whilst there's been lots of talk about residential and home builder scheme, most of that work in our experience has not started yet and will obviously be the strength of the second half and indeed all of calendar year '21. But the improvement we saw in our building products category in the first half was probably largely about the renovations market, not the construction of new homes. And then just a final point under the sales revenue slide. There's certainly a trend swinging back towards locally made products. There was a couple of reasons for that. Perhaps there was some -- a small amount of buy-Australia sentiment, which comes in from time to time, but I think a larger impact was the substantial international shipping restrictions, restraints, whatever words you want to use, that certainly everyone has experienced as a result of some of the capacity being taken out of that international shipping and some other COVID-related port disruptions, et cetera. So that certainly impacted a lot of the imported products. So we've seen good strong growth for our locally manufactured products. That's been a pleasing part of the first half result and, as I mentioned earlier, certainly, including our new Bridge System range. So there's some of the headlines or highlights on sales revenue on the operations side of the business. As I've mentioned a couple of times, I think we've grown our share in Formwork, and we've grown our distribution gross margin despite some of those challenges around costs. We'll have to continue to watch those closely because there's certainly been some sharp increases in Q2 and at the beginning of Q3. The manufacturing efficiencies, as I mentioned, even though we've trimmed back volumes again another 5% compared to the prior period, so just continuing to refine what products we make and focusing on the top end, labor savings and energy savings are what drove that $1.4 million cash -- cash cost reduction, which was pleasing. So yes, that certainly helped get that profitability outcome. And then certainly, inventory has been tightly managed like many companies during this COVID period. So our overall inventory reduced by about $1 million on the prior period on a like-for-like basis. So yes, there's been some pretty tight supply of raw materials and, indeed, some of the traded and imported products, as I've mentioned earlier. So there are some things to watch, but certainly has helped the working capital picture in the first half. Just on the acquired businesses, a few things to note. Interestingly, the Frame & Truss plants we've got in both Geelong and South Australia and a smaller one in Western Australia. But that product -- that particular category for us has the single largest exposure to homebuilder. Obviously, the frame and roofing truss is of -- is the key structural products within detached housing. So our businesses in Frame & Truss have actually had quite a challenging first half. As I mentioned, some great numbers coming through on housing approvals, but that hasn't flowed through to housing starts yet. So those businesses have probably lagged the rest of our group in the first half, but they also have the strongest pipeline for the second half, without a doubt. We've been doing materially larger amounts of quotes for our key homebuilders. 10 of our largest 20 customers in our project are homebuilders, and their pipeline of work and their requirements for design and takeoff work from our team has grown exponentially. So that's certainly, for us, a very positive sign about what's to come. And we've seen that early signs in January and February, where those 2 businesses, in particular, which are heavily exposed to project homes, have had good strong sales growth versus the prior period. So that trend is starting to flow through as we would expect that usual 4- to 6-month lag time between approval and construction starts has proven to be on the money, again, I think, that usual lag time. New Zealand is tracking solidly, as I said, and we expect a good strong second half. This was the period last year where we had the 30-day lock down in the second half in New Zealand, so we'll be cycling against a slightly tougher period last year. So we think that will be -- there'll be some good results come through there. And Formwork certainly continues to grow nicely through our acquired sites. That's a key part of our strategy when we acquire a new branch within our network is to roll out our specialty Formwork products, and we continue to get really good penetration there, particularly Canberra, Gold Coast and Adelaide. So just quickly moving, guys, to the Slide 7, just a couple of slides on some key strategy things that have come up during the year, and particularly if you hadn't seen some of the capital raise documents, which were in the market in November and December. Just a quick summary on the acquisition of Timberwood. Look, it's a good scale business in our highest margin plywood and specialty segment. As I mentioned earlier, it takes our exposure to over 1/3 of our revenue in that category. That takes our business to over $100 million of revenue in that particular market segment, makes us one of the leading players in the Australian and New Zealand market. So a really well-diversified panel business with good exposure to commercial, industrial, residential market. So I think it's a good balance for Big River's overall sector mix and certainly adds to that diversification story, which has been a strength of the company, in my perspective, and a good, a diverse client base, the same as Big River. So 1,500 trading accounts from that business. So a really good diversity and certainly no single account that's wholly dominant or anything like that. From -- so that's the strategic reasoning from growth options and synergies. Yes, the Timberwood business operates sites in Canberra and then in Dandenong and the main manufacturing site in Campbellfield as well as a joint venture in Adelaide. So good opportunities for us to leverage other parts of the Big River networks, South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales, where we've got assets, we've got infrastructure in place and Timberwood haven't. So obviously, good opportunities for us to use our existing sites to help expand that Timberwood business, too. Good 2-way product opportunity, some key differentiated products in the Timberwood portfolio and in the Big River portfolio with certainly lots of cross-selling opportunities to leverage our combined 8,000 clients with a greater product range. So that's pleasing. And then on the supply side, again, some good supply crossover between Big River, our New Zealand business and the Timberwood business, where we should be able to extract improved purchasing arrangements and, indeed, some reduced working capital. So I think there's good synergies on the supply side as well. And the other thing that this creates for us, which is not something I've talked about much before in the past, is that really starts to strengthen our differentiated product offer, which does open up the opportunity for greenfield expansion of the Big River network, not something we looked at before, particularly in building products. We believe acquisition of longstanding businesses with very sticky building customers is the right strategy to expand. In this case, some really good differentiation between Big River and Timberwood, which does, I think, present a much better story to consider greenfield expansion. So that's, in my view, a tool we haven't really had in the past, but it becomes now a genuine opportunity for us to consider in the future strategy. And then from the financial side, look, it's a good solid business. It's over $50 million of revenue, $6 million of EBITDA last year under the new language. Sales growth last year despite the challenges of COVID, and sales have grown in the first half again this year despite the business having a reasonable exposure to commercial construction, which is one of the weaker segments. Yes, the business continues to expand. So good EBITDA margins in excess of what Big River has. So that will certainly help improve our overall financial metrics. Working capital of the business is very solid there. As you can see, less than 20%. Working capital sales ratio, Big River tracks about 17% to 18%. So it's very similar. And then the overall EPS accretion of the deal, which was detailed in the capital raise documents, around 17%. So we think that makes really good financial sense, really good sense from a strategy perspective and from a diversity point of view. So yes, it's a good deal, and we're due to settle in a month time. So just quickly on Page 8. It's just a little bit more color on the manufacturing consolidation strategy. Obviously, that is linked to the government funding, which I touched on earlier. So clearly, the fires in that region, where we source our logs for the Wagga plant, have stripped out about 40% of the long-term wood supply. Obviously, there's wood in the short term, through until the end of this financial year for us and certainly some ongoing [ logs ], but the fact that there's been a major reduction in the overall pool certainly questions the sustainability of that site, which is why we've pushed for this consolidation strategy in Grafton, where our other factory is. There is actually excess pine logs available. So that's a bit quirky where there's a bit of a deficit across the whole of Australia, but in that particular pocket, there is some excess pine, so it's a good basis of which to build a sustainable investment as our single site. So we think that's particularly compelling. Good core competencies exist between the same sites, who do the same thing. So we don't lose anything from a capability perspective. Obviously, the $10 million we've received is important to execute the overall project. So that funding is much appreciated. The plants, as I've mentioned before, were both operating well below their nameplate capacity. So we don't believe there's any loss of fundamental capacity to supply our market. We'll be doing some relatively minor capital investments compared to the scale of a plywood factory, and that will certainly well and truly satisfy the market that we've got and, clearly, removing all the duplication of having 2 sites. Operating at 50% capacity is pretty compelling from a financial perspective. So that's the strategic reasoning. As for the group's strategy, as I've mentioned, I don't see us losing anything with respect to that. We've moved to the high-value products and reduced our exposure to commodity manufacturing for the last 3 years. So that doesn't change. Grafton is a very differentiated site there with a range of log species available, which is where a lot of our focus is. And certainly, we don't lose any capability to produce anything, as I mentioned. Some new equipment will just increase efficiencies and the product range we can manufacture out of Grafton. So again, that's pleasing investments to make to improve our long-term profitability. Some of the key assets out of Wagga will come up again just to ensure that there's no competencies lost. And certainly, the enhanced capacity of our specialty product range, that's where most of the new investments are going to be, and that's where the growth has come in the last few years, and that's where the profitability improvement, in particular, in this financial year has come. So again, we're making investments in the highest return part of our business makes sense, obviously. And, financially, as I mentioned, the first half results, we've impaired predominantly the plant and equipment assets, which was to the tune of around $9.4 million. There was a small allowance there in terms of the land and building and some remediation costs required, obviously, to bring the site up to a saleable level. So there was a small amount of that, but most of that write-down was in fixed assets. The impact on manufacturing in future periods. Obviously, whilst you've seen the impact on the statutory results this half, in future, from both a profitability point of view and a cash flow point of view, it will be positive in the future, whilst there's still some costs to be incurred in the future months with respect to that project. Obviously, there will be government income coming in as revenue to offset that. So from both a P&L and a cash flow perspective, after this first half '21, there will be a positive impact on the financials until that project is completed. And as we noted in the capital raise documents, around 20% EPS accretion at the end of that project is a good financial outcome for the group. So that's -- I want to just pass over to Steve now just to run through the key 3 financial slides, and then I'll just sum up at the end on the outlook. Thanks, Steve.

Yes. Thanks, Jim. So just look at that next slide, Slide #9. We've got the earnings summary. Headline revenue, as we've pointed out previously, $133.5 million for the half, up 5.9% on the previous period with same-store revenue growing at 1% within that. The EBITDA contribution from distribution was up 1.8%, helped by that increase in the gross margin. And as you can see there, a good result out of manufacturing, with EBITDA up 180% to $1.9 million, thanks to that growth in the company's manufactured Bridge Systems along with some improvements in some of the costs with energy costs a bit lower and some good labor efficiencies there as well. Corporate costs were pretty steady with previous years. So no big increases there, basically, $2 million, compared to similar number last year. That led to an overall increase in EBITDA of 16.6% to $9.8 million after acquisition costs. And as Jim sort of detailed there in relation to the government grant, that successful application, for the $10 million back in November. Going to see that site consolidation of the manufacturing down to one site in Grafton. And I've just detailed there in the table below on that slide, just the components as to where that asset impairment comes from. So we've got roughly $1.2 million out of the buildings and $10.6 million out of the plant and equipment, some allowance for some site restoration costs and the like and, obviously, the tax credit on that as well. So overall, that's that impairment of $9.4 million that we're looking down there. And I guess just around that -- after that's complete, there'll actually be a cash surplus in the order of roundabout $10 million after allowing for that government grant, utilization of that expected future tax benefit, some release of working capital, sale of those land and buildings out in Wagga which we won't need any more, some of the closure costs -- or less of the closure costs and the capital investment that we're going to make in Grafton to improve that site, netting roundabout $10 million plus. So once we've got that one-off impairment, there will be some good cash generated, and it'll give us a good platform going forward as well. Just moving on to the next slide there on the balance sheet. Trade working capital for us, as always, is a strong focus. And for this period that we've just gone through, 17.7% as a percentage of revenue compared to 17.2% for FY '20. And as Jim's mentioned there, our range is around that sort of 17% to 18%. So we're right in the math there. Pleasing to see a strong improvement in the debtor days. We averaged 50 for the 6 months compared to 56 for all of FY '20. So we've seen some good debtor payments coming through despite the whole COVID uncertainty that was around through the -- probably the last 12 months or so. Fixed assets, you can see there, dropped obviously with the impairment that we've got on there. But as I pointed out, there's some positive cash that comes with that in the future. The capital raise in December of $13.8 million to support the acquisition of Timberwood Panels that resulted in a quite low bank debt position for us at the half of only $9.2 million and a very low gearing of 10.5%. That's only a temporary measure, if you like. Obviously, that money is slated for part settlement of the Timberwood acquisition at the end of March. So if you exclude those things, our gearing ratio there on a bank debt basis is closer to 26%. Just also point out there that in addition to that cash that will come through, we've actually had some approval from our -- the company's banker to give us an increase of $10 million in the company's acquisition facility to support some future growth. So that -- those 2 things combined give us a little bit more in the kitty to support the company's growth. Just moving on to the next slide there, the final one on the financials, is the cash flow. Operating cash flow at a headline level was 77%, so a pretty reasonable result there. But that also included about $2.2 million worth of deferred payments from FY '20, which were all allowed deferrals around the whole COVID and government support around that period of time. And when you adjust for that, our actual operating cash flow before interest and tax was closer to 100%. In fact, it was just over 100% for the period. So a really good result there. Some of the other bigger items on there. We've got minimal CapEx for the first half. We do expect much more in the second half, just with some of the mobile plant and equipment and some of the projects that we've got slated for the second half as well as some of the expansion that we're doing into Grafton that will come through in the period as well. And then, I guess, finally, just at the bottom there, we had some part of the capital raise coming through to support the acquisition of Timberwood Panels that was completed in December. And then the second part that was just approved at last week's AGM, which will raise another $6 million for the company. So that will be all ready to go. And then lastly, just the interim dividend that we've determined there of $0.026 per share. And that's got a record date there of 18th of March with a payment date of 21 April, and we got the DRP applying to that at a 2.5% discount. So that's, I guess, the key sort of financial things there. Jim?

All right. Thanks, Steve. So just finally, guys, we've gone a touch overtime, but I'll try and squeeze through the outlook. So we -- the broad summary on the outlook is, we see the second half being largely similar to the first half with the exception of some improvement in detached housing construction. So those approvals, which spiked, particularly in Q2, have clearly got to come through and be built now. So that's certainly a positive tailwind for the second half. But the rest of the market we expect to be largely unchanged. You may have seen some of the data. Obviously, there's been approvals, and hence, expected starts in detached housing of around 130,000 starts for the calendar year '21. Whilst that's up a fair bit, it's only up at about where the market peaked in 2017, so -- or is still a touch below that. So I don't think it's an excessive spike. Certainly, when you look at the multi-res as well, it was only in the area of 185,000 starts approved in the calendar year '20, which is still 20% below the peak of the residential cycle, which was around 2017. So I'm certainly not in the gang, but to subscribe to a residential oversupply or anything like that, I don't think those numbers support that. So -- but it certainly does give us a good tailwind for the calendar -- for the '21 calendar year. So yes, commercial and multi-res continue to be the softest. But of course, there's projects being tendered, and there's considerable projects under construction, many of those last several years, as you may be aware. So I've just listed a couple of the projects that are already up and going. The Queens Wharf project in Brisbane is obviously a very large project as is Star Casino up at Gold Coast, M-City and the Melbourne Quarter in Melbourne and hospitals in 4 states, all under construction, which is good business within that commercial segment. Civil remains strong and, particularly in Sydney, the metro rail system is really getting going multiple sites, 8, 9, 10 different stations there, where there's a significant amount of Formwork attached to those, the Melbourne tunnel, there's some bypass work being done in the Illawarra and some civil work in Perth on both road systems and also we've been supplying to one of the Fortescue construction of their new mines. So some good civil projects there as well in the pipeline as had been for some years, by the way. Just on the strategy. I've already talked about Timberwood. So the 3 months that they'll contribute to the second half, that effectively adds 10% to our second half revenue on a sort of the usual run rate basis. The consolidation project we'll be working through all of that, obviously, in the second half and planning that as we step down production at Wagga and step up production at Grafton. As has been the case since we listed, plenty of other acquisitions that we're considering and we're looking at. Kind of that's normal. Yes, there's been some increased sign of vendors considering selling as a result of COVID. I think I mentioned that on the last call. So certainly, we've seen that happen. I don't think there's any stress sellers out there yet. I don't think the drop in the market clearly happens as everyone expected. So I don't believe there's stress sellers out there, but I think plenty of people have reassessed their future, and we're following up on a range of those leads. And scale advantages, which is a key part as we grown from a very small public company. Clearly, we're getting those benefits with respect to the dilution of our corporate cost expansion and margin and just growth in the revenue of the business. So I think that strategy is rolling on, and I'm pleased with the progress there. And then financially, yes, obviously, when you include the other sales growth, we expect the second half sales to be circa 15% above the prior period. Look, there's some disruption to manufacturing profit as we get close to that exiting of the mainstream sort of back-end manufacturing at Wagga. We'd expect that to start to impact efficiencies in the second half. Gross margin, as I've mentioned, is under some pressure there. So there is some sharp price increases. Obviously, we need to ensure we get those through to the market. But certainly, in broad terms, we expect the EBITDA to be in line with the first half. So no material change in the market conditions is our summary. And then finally, I won't get through the appendix slide, but that just gives you a bit of reference across a series of periods for those who want to spend the time to study it. So I might just pull up there. That's 35 minutes, folks. I appreciate your attention, and perhaps we open up for some questions.

[Operator Instructions]

All right. We might leave it there, folks, if there's no questions.

We got one question, and your first question comes from Mark Skocic from Kinetic.

Jim, can you hear me?

Yes, Mark, you're loud and clear.

Good result. Well done. You just mentioned on a call a few moments ago considering doing organic expansions post the Timberwood acquisition. Can you just sort of explain or just put some color around what the thinking actually is there and why Timberwood acquisition was actually quite important for that bit of a change of heart, I guess?

Yes. I think the key thing is that the product range offered through Timberwood, in particular, is quite differentiated. So it is a specialty offer. That business has been very successful in growing via organic greenfield sites because there is quite a niche product offer there. So you're not competing against a whole range of similar players with exactly the same offer. So when you combine some of the specialty side of Big River, which is a couple of the key Formwork products and some of our architectural plywood and specialty industrial plywood, I think we've now got a portfolio there, Mark, that really does start to justify smaller greenfield expansions to sort of tap into those more specialty segments within construction. Obviously, the general building products, which has been the majority of our acquisitions so far, that is, we would buy from the same suppliers, and there's hundreds, if not thousands, of players around Australia play in that space. I think greenfield is very challenging there because we buy the same products from the same suppliers. Sure, scale helps, but our experience is customers are very sticky to their existing local traders. In this case, with a real specialty product offer, Mark, I think it really does open the door for some specialty panels outlets that leverage the best of our collective product range.

Yes. Right. Okay. And you mentioned on the call as well about higher freight costs. Some -- another company we listened to recently was talking about almost tripling of freight rates. Are you seeing increases of that magnitude? I thought it was quite high.