Bike24 Holding AG (BIKE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 26, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood day, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to today's earnings call of the Bike24 Holding AG following the publication of the financial year figures of 2024. I am delighted to welcome the CEO, Andres Martin-Birner as well as the CFO, Timm Armbrust, who will speak in a moment and guide us through the presentation and the results. After the presentation, we will move on to the Q&A session in which you will be allowed to place your questions directly to the management. So I would say let's jump straight into the numbers. Andres, this stage is yours.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveThank you. Yes. Welcome to today's earnings call presentation for the fourth quarter. My name is Andres Martin-Birner. I'm the Founder and CEO of Bike24. At my side, as always, is Timm Armbrust, the CFO of Bike24. Let me now start with the general update on the fourth quarter of this year before I hand over to Timm for the business update, finishing with a general summary, the Bike24 2025 guidance and then Q&A session. The fourth quarter was very successful overall and clearly shows again the positive trend. Despite a difficult market environment, we achieved a revenue growth of plus 7% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of plus 3.2%. This was the strongest sales growth since Q3 2022. On the other hand, our focus on profitability is also paying off. We achieved this result due to a significantly better gross margin, strict cost discipline and a more focused marketing strategy. In particular, the continuous improvement of our offering for our customers led to growth in all core markets: DACH, plus 8%; Spain, Italy, France and Benelux, these are our localized countries with sales growth of plus 10%; and Rest of Europe, plus 8%. Especially sales growth in Benelux remained strong at 26% in the second year of localization. Moving on to our assortment segments. Our core PAC segment recorded sales growth of plus 8%, which once again demonstrates the importance of the extra enthusiast bike market. On the other hand, despite a difficult market environment, here it means that current reports show that German bicycle market has fallen by 10% in 2024, we were still able to generate robust sales growth plus 3%. This was the highest sales of full bikes in the fourth quarter than ever before. In terms of inventory, we made further progress towards a healthier position, especially PAC inventory was reduced significantly versus December 2023 by 16%. To look ahead, for the financial year 2025, we expect further top and bottom line improvements, in particular, supported by strong PAC sales, we anticipate sales growth of between EUR 232 million and EUR 242 million, which means growth of between 3% and 7%, and an adjusted EBITDA of between EUR 7 million and EUR 12.1 million. We, therefore, expect the positive trend of the last few quarters to continue and we consider the results of the last few weeks with double-digit sales growth to be promising. So this was the intro from my side. Timm, over to you for the financials.
Timm Armbrust
executiveYes. Thanks, Andres. And also a warm welcome from my side. So let me start by walking you through the financial figures for the fourth quarter of 2024. Overall, we increased our revenues in Q4 by 7%. This continues the positive trend we have seen in previous quarters. While growth in Q3 was still at 3%, we were now able to accelerate it significantly. The development in the PAC segment is especially promising. With an 8% increase in sales, this was the most dynamic category. This was mainly driven by significant improved product availability, especially during Black Friday, we were able to present our customers with very attractive offers. The Bike segment also grew by 3%. That's a strong result, especially when considering that the overall market in our core market, Germany, declined by 10% for the full year. Looking at the regional development, we recorded clear growth in all markets. The only exception was a small nonstrategic Rest of World region, where revenues continue to decline. This is mainly due to increasingly restrictive distribution strategies by some brands in those markets. However, since this region represents only around 3% of our total revenues, its impact on Bike24's overall performance is tiny. Let's now take a closer look to our key regions. In our core market DACH, we increased revenues by 8%. This is primarily the result of shifting our customer mix back towards enthusiasts. Also, the number of customers remain stable, the increased average revenue per customer by 8%. This proof that our positioning and our secret sauce, assortment, availability, fast delivery, attractive pricing and extra customer support continue to work well. In our localized markets, France, Italy, Spain and the Benelux countries, the picture is intentionally different. So equally positive as we are still in the early stage of market development with a clear focus on winning new customers. Our efforts working well. The number of active customers increased by 11%, while average revenue per customer remain more or less stable. As a result, we achieved 10% revenue growth in this region. As Andres mentioned earlier, the development in the Benelux region is especially noteworthy with plus 26%. In Rest of Europe, meaning countries with also localized web shop that mainly honor via our dotcom domain, we also saw strong growth, plus 8% revenue in Q4. This was mainly driven by improved product availability and ongoing inventory reductions across the market. As a result, customers are increasingly returning to platforms like Bike24 that offers a full product portfolio of the bike industry. Before we move on the full year numbers for 2024, let's take a brief look at the P&L for the quarter 4. We improved our adjusted EBITDA margin from minus 7% to plus 3.2%. Part of this improvement is due to one-off effects related to provisions for aged inventory, but the operational improvements are clearly visible. We increased our gross margin by 2.2 percentage points on an operational basis. We also made progress on the cost side in every area. Let me highlight a few points. Marketing costs were further reduced relative to revenue despite 8% sales growth. Personnel costs improved by 4.3 percentage points year-over-year. This reflects the results of our resizing to the current company size of the past 18 months. Fewer employees combined with rising revenues leads to a strong leverage effect. To sum up, Q4 was a very successful quarter. Revenue growth, improved margins and optimized costs clearly show we are on a solid path to operational recovery. While we haven't yet reached our EBITDA target, this was a very meaningful step forward. Let's now turn to the full year 2024. Overall, Bike24's revenue in 2024 was stable, but the turnaround is clearly visible. Q1 still declining revenues. Q2, plus 1%. Q3, plus 3%. And Q4, plus 7%. This means we managed to stabilize and accelerate the business quarter-by-quarter. We also made visible progress on the balance sheet. Net working capital was reduced by 19%. This was mainly driven by the consistent sell-through of excess inventory, allowing us to reduce our stock level by 14%. As a reminder, at the peak of the crisis in the bicycle market, we had over EUR 90 million inventory. This had a direct impact on our free cash flow. In combination with the improved operating results, inventory reductions and lower investments significantly boosted free cash flow. We used most of the free cash flow to deleverage the company, repaying a total of EUR 8 million in bank loans. The full year profit and loss statement also clearly shows Bike24 has achieved its operational turnover. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from minus 1.3% to plus 2.4% in absolute terms from minus EUR 2.9 million to plus EUR 5.3 million. Gross margin increased by 3.1 percentage points, performance marketing and sales costs decreased significantly related to revenues. Personnel costs were also reduced, also partly offset by salary increases. One important note here, the personal measure decided in November 2024 are only reflected in 1/12 of this annual figures. For 2025, we expect these measures to have a positive effect on personnel costs, EUR 2.3 million. With that, I conclude the business update and hand it back to Andres.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveThank you, Timm. Following an already successful third quarter, we were also able to increase sales and profit in the fourth quarter. It shows that our focus on profitability is paying off. The known reasons are the improved gross margins, discipline on costs and our improved marketing approach. The fact that we were able to increase sales in all focused markets is a good sign of a trend reversal. We are also pleased to report the highest sales of bikes we have ever had in the fourth quarter. Our continued focus on our working capital and improvements in our operating business have generated strong free cash flow in 2024. As a result, what Timm also mentioned, we were able to reduce last year the Bike24's debt by EUR 8 million. Our strategic focus over the last years of rolling out our business model to other European countries, that means driving forward localization and investing more in the full bike assortment is showing sustainable success. This is also demonstrated by the results in January and February with double-digit sales growth and even accelerated growth in March. To finish, let's look ahead. We will return to substantial growth in Q4 last year, and the promising results of the last few weeks, we anticipate the sales growth between EUR 233 million and EUR 242 million for 2025. We also expect adjusted EBITDA to improve this year, primarily thanks to operating leverage and cost savings. Overall, we expect to improve our profit with adjusted EBITDA of between EUR 7 million and EUR 12.1 million. I would now like to thank you to you for your attention. And now we are open for your questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Mr. Specht, you should be able to speak now.
Wolfgang Specht
analystThree questions from my side. I honor the massive turnaround on the Q4 figures, you -- let's say, put in the front to us. But if I look at the early localized markets, France, Italy, Spain on a yearly basis as they are quite significantly down. Do you expect this not to repeat in this year? Or do we need some more marketing spend in these markets to come back on a growth track? That would be the first question. And then I would be interested in the PAC full year growth figure. And then if I look at the customer development, you showed a decline over the full year, which was, let's say, balanced towards the revenue line by higher basket size, do you believe this pattern can continue? Or would you rather believe it would be worth to invest into new customers going forward?
Timm Armbrust
executiveThanks, Mr. Specht for the question. Maybe I will start with the first question. So France, Italy and Spain, yes, we saw a decline on a full year basis. But as we also mentioned in previous calls is that we changed our marketing strategy in that regions significant. We put the focus more on bike enthusiasts, because what we saw is with too much spending in this region on marketing, we acquire customers that we are not able to convert in really sticky customers. So we more -- before we're looking more for head terms like I would like to buy a bike and to make advertisement on that. Now we are more specific and attracting more enthusiast customers, and that pays out. So from beginning Q3, we turn it around. And also in Q4, it was not a significant cause. But in that regions, we're already growing on the customer base size. So we are promising that, that was the right decision and looking forward to the 2025 figures there. The second question, it was related to PAC full year. Could you elaborate what you are looking for?
Wolfgang Specht
analystYou showed the growth figure for the fourth quarter, but I would be interested how PAC subsegment works for the full year.
Timm Armbrust
executiveIt was minus 1% overall. So we had a little bit more -- a little -- slightly growth of 3% in the Bike segment, and PAC segment was down minus 1%.
Wolfgang Specht
analystAnd then maybe on the mix customer and basket size. Would you still expect a slight decline this year on the customer side as well...
Timm Armbrust
executiveI'm not 100% sure whether there will be a decline or if it will be stable or small increase. But still, what I told you about the Fritz, it's overall our strategy that we're more focusing on a very profitable bike enthusiast, and moving a little bit to marketing expanded away from, I would say, the entry and mid-market segment and that we will see also that trend in 2025. But we also give you, I think, slight ahead of the Q1 figures and also the customer growth of new customers compared to last year is very good and is a double-digit at the moment.
Operator
operatorThank you. And we move on to the next participant, [ Mr. Spang ], you should be able to speak now.
Unknown Analyst
analystFirst, on the outlook for 2025 coming from the strong gross profit margin increase in 2024. You said that you also expect operating leverage effect for 2025. So what should we expect in terms of gross margin in 2025? That would be my first question.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveOf course, we -- trust, we are a little bit depending on the market environment and we have to look to the market price development in our core regions. This is, of course, the point what we are looking for. But of course, the very important thing is to increase gross margins. And when we see there is a chance or opportunity to do this then we do this for this year. And especially, what you see or what we saw last year is the pressure on the full bike segment regarding the margins. And this is the point of the segment where we see the overcapacities in the market. And this is a little bit too early what the season brings. Yes, of course, the first few weeks started very well. And for us, it's not 100% clear what are the overcapacities in the industry of competitors. And this is the main point what is depending on this gross margin issue. We see better gross margins in the PAC segment because they are, I would say, 90% of the overcapacities are over. But yes, 20%, as you know, our -- and the news came from -- are coming from bikes and this is the -- this thing work because where we are not 100% have the transparency from the market.
Unknown Analyst
analystBut do you think that you can make the next big step towards the 30% this year? Or will it take another, I don't know, 1, 2, 3 years?
Timm Armbrust
executiveNo, we don't expecting a big step in gross margin. We're expecting a positive step towards the 30% again, but not a big one. There are still the -- I think, uncertainty in the market is still there. So that will be again a step forward but not a big one.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And then regarding your statements for the first month of 2025. So you said that you experienced a double-digit revenue increase in January and February and the significant increase in March. So what numbers should we have in mind if we talk about Q1 in special? So is it more on the low double-digit area? Or is it possibly in the mid-single digit or because double digit is a very big change.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveMid teens, can we say that?
Unknown Analyst
analystThat's good. And then also regarding your statements for the first month. I was wondering because if we hear from other consumer brands, not in the bike area but of classical consumer goods, these statements are completely different to yours. So what do you think or why do you think the bike area is in the first month, we will see how this will develop in the rest of the year, but at the beginning of the year, different to other consuming areas.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveOkay. Maybe I can add something else for the -- what Timm mentioned. So it's clear for us the year started very well, and I think also a little bit better than expected. But on the other hand, you have to see in our core market, I would say the season started very early. We had sunny weather in March of around 2 weeks, and this is really a tailwind for Bike24 and it's always a tailwind when the season starts very well. That is also the reason why we -- it's a little bit early to say how the full year effect is, that's why that is also the reason why we are a little bit careful with the full year guidance. But it's sure that we will finish the first quarter with a double-digit -- low double-digit growth. But -- and I see that is really the trend reversal, and it's higher than the last quarter in Q4, and we are looking very optimistic for the full year. But to be, on the other hand, we are careful because the macroeconomic conditions are unclear. The consumer sentiment is unclear for us, how it will develop. And that's why we are a little bit careful for the full year. I think in the end of May, we have a clearer view of the full season.
Timm Armbrust
executiveBut I would like to also add that we also did our homework. It's not only the weather, it's also -- I already mentioned during the presentation, it's our availability of products. We are really, compared to last year more attractive for the bank enthusiasts and that is also one of the main driver for the revenue growth, especially in January and February. And in March, as Anders mentioned, also the positive weather comes into account.
Operator
operatorAnd we move on to the next participant, [indiscernible], you should be able to speak now.
Unknown Analyst
analystCongratulations to this very impressive numbers. And it's also great to hear that you expect double-digit growth in the first quarter -- that especially in relation to last year where you are seeing your double-digit negative growth in the first quarter. I have 3 questions. First, could you give more insight for the credit terms? Do you still have to repay EUR 2 million per quarter? And are you completely -- can you do with the cash? What do you want to do? I don't know, invest? Or do you have to keep a certain amount as security for the bank? The other thing is, in your annual report, which is also online, you are doing an interview and you are talking about cost cutting that you have cut cost in the fourth quarter, and we will see more of that in 2025. And the last thing about Poland, you said you will open in Poland. What do you expect from there?
Timm Armbrust
executiveThanks, [indiscernible]. For the question, I would say I will answer the first 2 questions. So credit facility and a new agreement. We have to repay the debt by EUR 6 million not EUR 8 million. So we have there a reduction, and on top, we get additional operational flexibility. So the minimum liquidity that we have to show that including the revolver, very important here, not only the cash also the undrawn revolver, that's still EUR 8.5 million was last year between EUR 8 million and EUR 12 million. And this year, it's only EUR 5 million. And if we reached a certain threshold in net leverage, then that will be 0, so they will be out of the credit facility. So overall, I could really say that we are -- have more flexibility that we could really by products to be successful, yes. We're still looking sure where we invest but it's a different situation than last year, an improved situation. Second one, the cost measure in November. Yes, we did a reduction in personnel expenses. And I also mentioned that during the presentation, that was in 2024, only 1/12 the effect in the figures, but for 2025, that saves us up to EUR 2.3 million personnel expenses. There will be also, I think, that is a little bit with salary increases, but overall, we will see a reduction in salaries and personnel expenses for 2025. And the third question, I hand over to Andres, about Poland.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveYes. I think I can answer the question regarding to Poland and to our localization. As you know, we also localized -- or we do the localization for Finland. In both countries we roll out beginning of March. So what we expect is, to be honest, a little bit comparable to our localization for other countries or regions in Europe. So I would say high double-digit growth rates and over average growth rates to the -- compared to other countries, we are localized, so -- but on the other hand, it's really very early to say what or how big is the impact to our business. To be honest, we -- and that it's clear that we first localize the big countries and the big cycling nations in Europe, with France, Italy, Spain, Benelux, so the countries are really smaller. But on the other hand, it's a part of our strategy. And I think there's many, many customers we can achieve with our assortment, also in Finland and in Poland.
Operator
operatorAnd we have a question in our chat box. I will read this out to you. Are the non-DACH activities still loss-making? And if so, can you give an indication of the level of start-up losses? How long do you expect it will take for the non-DACH activities to breakeven?
Timm Armbrust
executiveNo, the non-DACH activities are positive from the beginning. The good thing in our business model is we only have very small investments in the beginning, 100,000 to 200,000 case per country only for the translation. Everything else is doing automatically translations for all the products. And we ship from the warehouse to Barcelona. So we have -- from beginning profitable, for sure, regarding the shipping cost, if you send the parcel to a customer in Germany, or a parcel to a customer in Spain, that's for us very cheap here because we have a local warehouse there. But the difference is only a little bit more investing in marketing and higher shipping expenses. The rest is the same. Pricing is the same. Gross margin is the same. So we are profitable also in all other countries with the first order.
Operator
operatorAnd we will now move on to our participants via audio line. We have a user, and I will give him the possibility to speak.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is [ Matthias Miebel from Coop Bank ]. I have a question regarding your focus on the bike enthusiasts. Can you give us any numbers on how big you think the TAM for bike enthusiasts in your targeted markets? And within that subgroup, given that you are financially constrained right now. Can you like fully exploit the growth potential there? Or is there under targeted growth potentially in the top group of bike enthusiasts?
Timm Armbrust
executiveSo there are no exact numbers. What is the part of the market of bike enthusiasts? So it's really a little bit guessing. So what our internal discussing also with external people from the market at -- around about 25% of the market is the enthusiast. And what we see is that, that market is growing. So we have the mega trends that still fully intact. It's on the one hand, it's overall, the investment in cycling infrastructure. A lot of governments investing inside the infrastructure that make biking more attractive, and that leads that more customers cycle to work, for example. And then enthusiasts not anyone who only take races or go with the mountain bike now, it's now also enthuses someone who use the bike very often, and looking for high-quality bike. On the other side, as I said also the health and fitness trend is still there. And the main part or main driver of this megatrend is an active lifestyle, and also there Bike24 and the products we sell come into account. And that's the reason why the bike enthusiasts market is so attractive, is going and also in the future is going. And on top of that, what is very positive about the market, the customers spent a lot of money and not only one time each for years. We see the customer very often on our platform, our average customer as an existing customer buy at Bike24 3 times a year, and that helps to keep the marketing costs very low. And that's why we see that market -- part of the market so attractive.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd maybe as a follow-up on this. This focus is also for the full bikes segment. But you say there is oversupply in full bikes and given your history that you used to do only PAC and full bikes. And what is so if you excuse me, is so packed up with, let's say, value chain in full bikes like a personal anecdote, they tried to buy a CUBE Bike in the, let's say, like EUR 4,000 range, and it was not available on Bike24. It was not available at a local CUBE shop. And also, I was wondering this bike had like a #2 ranking in the newspaper tour. So why is it not available? What is -- why is the supply chain in, let's say, race bikes, why is it not balanced? What is the problem since after COVID?
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveYes. It's -- when you look at a specific bike model, it's -- yes, sometimes it's not so easy to...
Unknown Analyst
analystVery common middle-class bike is not...
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveYes, it's clear, but to be honest, the -- when you see the supply chain or development of a bike, so it's not -- it's not like fast fashion. So when they do the planning, and I'm not the manufacturer. So sometimes it's also for the industry very hard to predict what the models with the high demand for the next season, they try it. But when you see the numbers or the statistics for the bike manufacturers, yes, they are a little bit same behavior like Bike24. So they are a little bit careful. They have also the issues or had issues with cash and overcapacities and overstock. And that is the reason why I think they're very careful. And I think for the industry as a whole, it's good to see gaps because the price level is maybe increasing a little bit more. And I would say the demand -- when the demand is okay and the availability is a little bit lower, so we expect that these gross margins are higher. So that is on -- I would say it's -- it would be a good trend. On the other hand, to be honest, I think the main overcapacity problems we see in our industry is the e-bike market and then the bio bike MTB market. So when you see bike manufacturers focusing on gravel, on race or road bikes, they are in a really better situation than maybe a company with a concentration only to e-bikes or to cheap bio MTBs. So that is a little bit the difference. So we see it a little bit positive and we have gaps and the demand is high. And on the other hand, it's yes -- regarding to the supply chain, it's very hard to predict the demand of a bike.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd for your model you still think that selling full bikes, taking them on your balance sheet, taking the risk of, we have to basically call what people will want in 6 months or 9 months, is a good model for you. You think -- and it's tying up a lot of capital as well. So you think the pullback is still nonnegotiable for your business model?
Timm Armbrust
executiveYes. It still has a time in our race, that's the place in our business model. I think we communicated that what is our target level is 25% of our revenues. We know how attractive the PAC segment is, but also in the bike segment, what's very attractive is due to the e-bike shift, the average price is very high. So in the end, maybe from the gross margin level, it will not reach the PAC level. But on the other side, due to the high ticket prices on the EBITDA margin, it's in -- normal market circumstances, it's more profitable than PAC. And I think that compensate a little bit maybe -- a little bit longer time, lead time in the warehouse. And on the other side, we sell roundabout a little bit more than 20,000 bikes. And in Germany alone, it's only 5 million. So still with that, we focus on a very specific bike segment going not into the entry level, going to the high tickets where the user know what kind of bike I would like to have, what is my size, where the online player or the e-commerce player comes into place. We will not expand to bikes at the entry level, where I think that's not a good business model for an e-commerce company.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd is there -- in your thinking, is there also a marketplace model that could reduce your risk for, let's say, unwanted inventory sitting on your balance sheet.
Timm Armbrust
executiveNo, we are really in the strategic discussions. So I think we are happy to answer your questions and your thinking on the bike market in a separate call. What I can say is that, at the moment, we are not looking to be a marketplace. We're discussing that sometimes. But at the moment, our focus is really bringing Bike24 back on track, it's now back on track, and stick with the current business model.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd one final question on the financing side. During the run-up to the prolongation of your credit, have you considered raising equity?
Timm Armbrust
executiveNot on the current share price.
Operator
operatorAnd 1 question out of our chat box. I will read it out. Do you provide midterm sales and margin ambitions. So the question on your target numbers.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveYes. To be honest, when we look back to the history, so we were able to grow on a double-digit growth rate year-by-year until 2022 -- and 2021, sorry. So this is really the -- what we are focusing for the midterm that we have, again, double-digit growth rates in the nearest future, I would say.
Operator
operatorAnd one of participants, Antonio Theodore, you should be able to speak now.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo 2 questions, please. The first one is, what's the sustainable free cash flow, '25, '26 given that this EUR 10.5 million was achieving part of this inventory reduction. And my second question, more specific to the last question is, 2026, what's your target in EBITDA growth rate? If you can be a little bit more specific about what range we would expect.
Timm Armbrust
executiveYes. So from the free cash flow perspective, I think we are -- with this current growth double digit, as you mentioned, we will not see a further reduction in inventory this year. But we think that at the moment, that we not have to invest in inventory as well. So both sides, we will keep it stable, that's our target. So then in the end, the free cash flow is fully driven by the operational EBITDA cash flow. So that's regarding the free cash flow. And...
Unknown Analyst
analystSorry. So you would say it will -- single-digit growth, I mean, would stay around single-digit growth, free cash flow, how should we...
Timm Armbrust
executiveSingle-digit growth if the EBITDA. So I think it could also be a little bit less than this year because we don't have inventory reduction. We will keep the inventory reduction stable. And one part of the -- for the free cash flow is around about EUR 10 million inventory decrease. And on the other side, we're aiming for EUR 7 million to EUR 12 million EBITDA -- operating EBITDA. So free cash flow will be this year with the still expected low EBITDA margins more or less stable to give you an indication. And for 2026, we not published that figures what we expect in EBITDA margin. We will also see in 2026 another step forward back to the high single-digit EBITDA margins, but it will not jump to 9% or something else.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo no 9% because if I remember correctly, your goal in 2026 was 9% or that's no longer the case.
Timm Armbrust
executiveIn 2026, I don't know when was that goal?
Unknown Analyst
analystMaybe it was from previous notes. But -- so I shouldn't think about 2026, 9% like maybe less optimistic.
Timm Armbrust
executiveYes.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And for revenue growth in 2026, what should be reasonable.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveToday, it's really hard to predict here because we are so early in the season. So I think it's -- when we are in the midpoint of the season, I think it's really easier for us to predict also for the full year this year. And also, I think it's a little bit easier to have a forecast for 2026. But on the other hand, it's clear that we are aiming for double-digit growth rates because we had it in our -- yes, we had a historical, we know what we have to do. But the main thing is how the market will recover. And we have a good demand and good weather conditions in Europe, I would say, and we have a good macroeconomic area in the world. So then it's really possible to come earlier to this growth rate to double digit in 2026. But it's really -- it's not so easy to predict today.
Operator
operatorAnd we move on to Mr. Schmidt. Mr. Schmidt, you should be able to speak now and place your question.
Ingo Schmidt
analystYes. This is Ingo Schmidt from Montega, thank you for the presentation, especially for the promising outlook. I have just 1 question left regarding the outlook 2025. How is the estimated revenue increase likely to be distributed between the PAC segment and bicycles? Will it be mostly driven by PAC again? Or do you expect a bigger improvement in the bike segment as well perhaps in the second half of the year?
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveTo be honest, we are a little bit careful with our predictions in the full bike segment. I think the main driver will be the PAC segment because we have -- here the rebound or the trend, we were also a little bit heavier than to the PAC segment for the full bike segment. It's more, I would say, to maintain or to keep our market share and our revenue, that's a thing what we are aiming for 2025 not to lose revenues in full bikes. And also to be -- yes, to be profitable and to, I would say, to look a little bit to the gross margin level. That's what we are looking for. But the main driver will be the PAC segment.
Operator
operatorThank you. And in the meantime, we have received no further questions. Wait for some seconds. Well, we have 1 in our chat box. I will read this out. Would you view another reason for stronger growth being your increased TAM due to the localization. In fact, doesn't this even argue for at least as bright a future than the past, pre-2022 double-digit growth era?
Timm Armbrust
executiveYes, sure. That's the main reason for the localization, but it's still too early. We're coming out from the -- I think, from the baddest market situation in the bike industry, and there are, I think, positive signs at the sky at the moment. But...
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveWe are really careful here to the situation because it could also be a one-off, the season started very early and -- and what we also predict is that '25, and we can confirm that there are many new products in the market. So it's a good demand for this new product, but it's -- for us, it's good to see how it developed the last few weeks, but we don't know how the consumer sentiment will develop in the coming few weeks. I think in the -- for us, the season is, I would say, additional -- or in addition, March and April because of the weather situation, I think in the end of April or beginning of May, we have a really better view on the season and on our market situation.
Operator
operatorOkay. Thank you very much. So no further questions in our chat box and via the audio line. So we, therefore, come to the end of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining in this lively conversation. And should further questions arise at a later time, please feel free to contact Investor Relations. A big thank you to you, gentlemen, for your presentation and the time you took to answer the questions. I wish you all a lovely remaining weak. And with this, I hand over again to Andres and Timm for some final remarks.
Andrés Martin-Birner
executiveYes. Thank you also from Timm and mine for the participation of our earnings call today. Thank you for your attention. Thank you for your questions. And yes, we will see you again I hope, and have a nice day. Bye-bye.
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