BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 10, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. Good morning, everyone. It is still good morning, at least in the East Coast. My name is Mohit Bansal. I'm one of the analysts here at Citi. And I'm happy to have today the BioMarin management team. We have J.J. Bienaimé, the Chairman and CEO of the company; Hank Fuchs, the President and Worldwide -- President of Worldwide R&D at BioMarin. You also have Brian Mueller, the CFO of the company. So we are happy to have the team today. Thank you for joining us today.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveThank you, Mohit.
Henry Fuchs
executiveThank you for having us.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveSo do you want me to start with a few opening comments, Mohit?
Mohit Bansal
analystSure, sir. Just before that, just one thing. If anyone has any questions on the call, if you want us to address them, please feel free to e-mail me or send your question via the webcast, and I'll be happy to read them anonymously. And with that out of the way, I would turn it over to J.J. for any opening comments.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveThanks again, Mohit. So we appreciate the opportunity to speak with you today. It has been a very active few weeks for us. And now that the dust is starting to settle, we want to share our framework for the remainder of 2020 and early 2021. So to start with, BioMarin's fundamentals remain solid. They are supported by our global base -- business of essential medicines, our strong cash position and our robust pipelines of products moving through development. We expect to exit 2020 with approximately $1.4 billion in cash after paying the outstanding convertible volume in October. And importantly, we expect positive operating cash flows going forward in 2021 and beyond. The strong foundation allows us to simultaneously pursue approvals of ROCTAVIAN and vosoritide to develop the earlier-stage pipeline and to grow our existing commercial business. So before getting to our ROCTAVIAN update, I want to share our excitement over recent developments with vosoritide. Over the weekend, the full Phase III data from our global study with 119 children with achondroplasia was published in The Lancet. The Phase III results provide strong evidence of the clinical benefits of vosoritide. They demonstrated a highly significant -- statistically significant improvement in annualized growth velocity in treating -- children treated with vosoritide that participated in the study. Our marketing applications have been submitted to both European and U.S. authorities with the EMA having recently validated the application. We are very encouraged by results from our multiple studies with vosoritide given the tremendous unmet need for children with achondroplasia. Turning now to ROCTAVIAN. The pursuit of expedited approvals with 26 weeks of data from 16 subjects was driven by our PRIME designation in Europe and our Breakthrough Therapy designation in the U.S. And while the weak controlled data that served as the basis for these expedited approvals was dramatic for our patients, at the end of the day, health authorities wanted a larger data set given the highly innovative nature of gene therapy treatment for hemophilia A. Given our track record as pioneers in scientific research and innovation, we designed and executed a robust development program with ROCTAVIAN. So we are in a fortunate position to be 2 months from completion of our global 1-year Phase III study with 134 patients. We plan to share top line 1-year Phase III data from this study in early 2021. So this is a potential new catalyst. Given the depth and breadth of data expected from these Phase III results, EMA recently informed us that they would like to pace the approval and labeling discussion on the upcoming 1-year data, and this is information that we shared yesterday. As a result, we are now working with the EMA to enable submission of the full 1-year Phase III data and anticipate being in a position to submit the 134 subject data set designed to demonstrate superiority over standard of care at the end of the first quarter of 2021. So while we are disappointed in this delay, we believe the package at launch will even -- be even stronger with the full data set and the results from the 134 subjects, and it will better position us commercially in Europe and allow us to obtain better pricing and reimbursement than if we were approved only -- based on only 16 patients worth of data and 6-month historical data. So importantly, European health authorities have inspected and accredited our ROCTAVIAN manufacturing facility, and there are no outstanding manufacturing issues to be addressed. So we remain confident in the commercial potential and approvability of ROCTAVIAN in the U.S. and Europe. Our confidence in the potential outcome of the full Phase III study results are based on a few parameters that I would like to invite Hank to describe -- Hank Fuchs, Head of R&D, to describe to you in the next few minutes. Thank you. Hank?
Henry Fuchs
executiveThanks, J.J. The potential for the 1-year Phase III ROCTAVIAN results being supportive of approval are based on a number of key factors. First, the Phase III trial design is robust with a baseline prospective run-in to determine annualized bleed rate and the endpoint of the study is an endpoint that's been well recognized as supportive of registration. That's the annual -- the change in the annualized bleeding rate from before gene therapy to after gene therapy. And the results that we've observed after gene therapy give us a lot of confidence that the annualized bleed rate will be very, very low. And we have recently completed an analysis of that baseline run-in study further to what we presented at R&D day last year. We now have more reliable data on baseline bleeding. And so based on these preliminary annualized bleeding rates from the run-in study, the observed mean bleeds per year pre gene transfer were 4.8. This baseline annualized bleed rate is higher than what we had originally assumed. We had originally assumed the baseline ABR was, I think, 3 or 3.5, and gives us confidence that the 1-year Phase III study results will provide more than 99% power to demonstrate superiority annualized bleed rate compared to the baseline annualized bleed rate on standard care prophylaxis. Based on these parameters and notably the statistical power for ABR superiority, we are very encouraged the full Phase III results have the potential to support approval of ROCTAVIAN. As J.J. mentioned, we intend to share top line results from the Phase III study early in the first quarter of 2021. The plan in the U.S. includes a Type A meeting with the FDA, which we've not yet held, to discuss the contents of the complete response letter and to discuss steps necessary for approval. In light of the EMA's request for 1-year data from the Phase III study and FDA's request for 2-year data from this study, further discussions with FDA will be undertaken to assess if alignment on the data requirements between EMA and FDA can be harmonized and can expedite availability of the product. We're very encouraged by our discussions with the EMA and believe we can align on the efficient path forward for making ROCTAVIAN available for patients with hemophilia A. With that, Mohit, I'll turn the call back to you.
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. Thank you very much for this introduction. So maybe -- I'm sure you are getting this question a lot. But the decision definitely came as a surprise to many and probably you as well, I'm sure. So -- and -- I mean going into that decision, I mean you did interact with the FDA multiple times. And last, we did talk about that. I mean you did show the data, you did show all the supplement data as well. What do you think you could not help FDA understand? And why this whole thing happened? So what is the bigger issue at this point here?
Henry Fuchs
executiveWell, it's going to sound funny, but the biggest issue that we had was to convince them to have a discussion with us of any kind. So we had a lot of interaction with them, as you said, before the design of the Phase III study was complete. We had a lot of interaction with them at the time of the interim analysis and before we had dosed the remaining 100-and-some patients in the pivotal Phase III trial. We met with them after the interim analysis to discuss the pre-BLA -- to discuss the BLA. That was the meeting in which they said, there are no clinical issues to discuss. You met all the criteria. All of us who had been at that meeting said, we've never been to an FDA meeting where there were no clinical issues to discuss. That's a bit of a surprise.
Mohit Bansal
analystRight. We talked about that actually before, and I said.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. And then we met with them at the mid-cycle meeting and they didn't raise any issues. And then a junior group...
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveAnd we asked them if there was a need for an AdCom, and they said no.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. Well, they said no 3 different times. And then, not that we were asking. I mean they -- it wasn't that we were asking for an AdCom, they had the opportunity to bring an AdCom in if they wanted to. And then we had a meeting where they just communicated some issues of the review, principally the differences in the study results between Phase II and Phase III. Now that was apparent to them 15 months earlier when we had the pre-BLA meeting. So it was a little strange that they raised it out of context. There were no senior people there, and there was no discussion. And from that point to the complete response letter, there was actually no interaction with the senior FDA official until the day before the CRL, which was a performance more than it was a discussion. So the single biggest challenge that we've had in convincing them of anything is to have a meeting to discuss this.
Mohit Bansal
analystWow. Got it. And you would assume that there would be more meetings with the Breakthrough Therapy designation typically, that's the case, right?
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. Yes. And the odd thing about it was that the way it was presented to us during the whole time. This was all about inspections and COVID. So they -- it was very -- it wasn't apparent that there was any clinical issue that was going to affect benefit risk. We thought all of this was about labeling or something like that. But they never engaged and discussed, interest to discern what the issues were and where we might be able -- to get to your question, where can we help you understand better? And so that's the process that we have to undertake now.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. And then -- so from this complete response letter that you have in your hand and you did disclose some part of it in the press release. So there are -- there could be a couple of ways to look at this. I mean FDA did not think that 20-patient data are enough here, or FDA was worried about the inconsistencies between Phase I/II versus Phase III data? Or I mean like your update thought that Phase III is robust enough in a condition which is good -- there are options out there. So why not wait until Phase III. So what do you think is the bigger issue at hand here?
Henry Fuchs
executiveI think it's a little bit of a combination of all of that, honestly. So COVID happens and their attention span is quite a bit lower. So their ability to engage sort of the more depth kind of scientific interaction that has to happen in rare disease approvals. They're getting increasingly comfortable with the availability of alternative therapies. And really, I think the big thing was the very large data set was around the corner. And so if you read FDA guidance documents on accelerated approvals, one of the first points they make is that accelerated approval is a useful option in which the time to a surrogate or an intermediate endpoint is short relative to time to the definite endpoint. And so when we set up the program, we had -- we thought there was about 18 months between when the agency would be deciding on the accelerated approval application and the full approval application. We ended up enrolling the study reasonably quickly because there was quite a lot of demand for the study. And I think it's just for all the health authorities, it's just too tantalizingly close to say, yes, this month, when in 2 or 3 months, that data will be known. And so I think that was really the key driver. Now we're working, for example, with the EMA to try to figure out how we can get that data to them as quickly as possible so that the impact of the request to wait the extra couple of months is as short as it can possibly be. And so we hope to be filing those data in the first quarter just as soon as they're available, but we are awaiting confirmation from the EMA about that. But I think that as much as anything was, you have some variability in the Phase III study, and you have this very large data set right around the corner. And aren't we all better served by looking at the large data set, even though we've reached agreements, even though the company met all the requirements.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. That makes sense. So one question, I mean, I'm getting from investors is that, I mean you did disclose before that the manufacturing site was not inspected by the FDA. But you did mention that in FDA's discussion, there was no manufacturing issue. So I'm sure you're referring to the CMC package you submitted. Is that you mean by that?
Henry Fuchs
executiveWell, just to clear things up. J.J. mentioned the EMA doesn't have any CMC issues.
Mohit Bansal
analystOkay.
Henry Fuchs
executiveThe FDA didn't complete their review and they -- because they didn't complete all the CMC activities because they couldn't get confident in the clinical data. So they suspended. And like I said, during the review, the way it appeared to us, what they were telling us was the rate-limiting factor here is the pre-licensure inspection and we can't get out there because of COVID. So it turns out that what was happening was they were completing the write-up of their complete response letter on the basis of clinical data, and only then did we -- and only after we got the complete response letter do we realize they hadn't really done any work on the CMC.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. That makes sense. And then with European letter yesterday, it seems like -- from the language, it seems like it was more about Phase III being a really robust trial, and it was not particularly a clinical or variability issue. Was that the issue -- what was -- this is how you read it, that Phase III is robust enough, 1 year -- let's just wait for 1-year kind of situation?
Henry Fuchs
executiveAnd the European process is a little bit different than the American process because there's 2 months on the back end for legal authorization. So even after you get a positive opinion, then there's 2 more months before Brussels authorizes the Marketing Authorization Application. So remember, I was talking about that 18 months, but it's really like 4 months because of the time of the decision and the time of the data. Well, the 2 of those months are the EC decision on the back end, and then they got started 3 months late because the original reviews came in late because of COVID. So they really lost 2 months on the front, 2 months on the back and that was all of the time difference really between the action date and the availability of additional data. I suppose you could say, we hurt ourselves by enrolling the Phase III trial so fast. But at the end of the day, that trial is the money shot trial. Great to get on the market for patients and -- who have a really, really, really urgent desire to have gene therapy. But all along, the real value driver for ROCTAVIAN's commercial presence was going to be the Phase III trial, where we could be talking about statistically significant reductions in bleeding, we could talk about a much larger sample size, et cetera. So if we're guilty of anything, it's enrolling our 301 study too fast, but that's the money study anyway. So...
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveI think -- so Mohit, again, sorry, here, we are 4 months away from -- or so from the top line Phase III data, which again is a study designed to demonstrate superiority over standard of care, which is prophylactic Factor VIII. As Hank said, the baseline ABR -- ABR is the endpoint, annualized bleeding rate was 4.8 in those patients. And just to remind you that the ABR observed in the interim Phase III with 16 patients was 1.5.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it.
Henry Fuchs
executiveAnd those numbers, interestingly, are quite similar to HAVEN 3 adult non-inhibitor patients treated with emicizumab where the baseline ABR was in the high 4s, and it was reduced to the mid 1s with emicizumab. So we're right on track in regard to what is reasonable to expect for best available current therapy for hemophilia A. And the difference, of course, being with gene therapy is that there aren't -- the frequency of breakthrough bleedings is very low and, obviously, the advantage of compliance is much, much higher. And that's where current hemostatic efficacy regimens fall short because they involve a regulation of your activity and a chronic administration of a therapy. And that's more complicated than people appreciate. And that results in more morbidity than people appreciate. And that's why gene therapy is a great -- is going to be an important breakthrough for patients with hemophilia A.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. So in terms of -- so you did talk about that you plan to meet with the FDA and probably try to find a middle ground here, like they have taken an extreme approach with the 2-year data. Would it be prudent to meet after you have data? Or how you're thinking about the timing of that meeting?
Henry Fuchs
executiveWell, I think you have as much interaction with them as you can because you want to avoid surprises. And in a way, the standard way of doing that is to have more interaction than less interaction with them. So we'll be planning on meeting them before the Phase III data, and then we'll meet with them again after the Phase III data. I think it's an important opportunity to try to close the gaps in understanding. Review -- the typical regulatory review, there's a lot of back and force. And there's a lot of exchange. There's a lot of challenge and understanding. And that just didn't happen for the reasons we talked about. So we want to fill in those pieces where we fully understand how they're looking at the totality of the evidence.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. That makes sense. So in terms of variability that -- I mean FDA did talk about the Phase III and Phase III (sic) [ Phase II and Phase III ]. And -- I mean there is obviously hemophilia in it. So the disease itself is variable. And then there was one thing you were trying to arrest, which is the early steroid use as well, not wait till 10 weeks. So could you help us understand what you are doing in the Phase III trial after those initial few patients that could actually arrest -- help arrest that variability? And maybe help us set expectations here when we see the data next year because it becomes an important catalyst for you at this point.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. So to the extent that there's a hypothesis about steroid use, it's the impact of early steroid use on the initial level of transduction. If you remember, in our Phase II results, the 6e13 dose group, the week 52, week 26 Factor VIII activity, roughly similar to each other, in the 60s for the chromogenic assay versus in the high 30s for the -- like 36, 37 for the Phase III trial. So that difference may be related to prophylactic versus on-demand steroids. When you look at the past 6-month time point in the Phase II study, which is where we have the most long-term follow-up data in the Phase II study. And you compare the steroid use between the 6e group and the 4e group, the 6e group had gotten prophylactic steroids, the 4e group had gotten on-demand steroids. But from 6 months on, everybody was on steroids. So from 6 months on, everybody is essentially on an on-demand steroids. And the rate of change of Factor VIII expression between the 6e group and the 4e group is more similar than it is different in those outer years. So the argument is that there really is no impact of on-demand or on prophylactic on durability. And so actually, it was an interesting discussion that we had with the center director, Peter Marks, who we were looking at the plots of the Phase II data and the Phase III data. And if you remember these plots, there was sort of a yellow line that represented 6e13 group, and then there's 4e line that represented -- there was a black line that represented the 4e group. And then we put in the 6e line, which was intermediate -- I mean the Phase III data, which was intermediate between the black and the gold. And what Dr. Marks observed was his projection that it would be 7 or 8 years before you're above 5%. And so I think that...
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveEven with Phase III...
Henry Fuchs
executive[indiscernible] it sounded early, but it's unlikely to confound the durability story.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveI mean the steroids probably have an impact on the early Factor VIII expression levels, but not the late ones. I mean the first 6 to 12 months, yes.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. Got it. But then you are actually moving the uses of steroids from 10 weeks, which was seen in the initial trial to more like 5 weeks, right? I mean so that should get some impact.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. I mean we figure that the more responsive you are to ALT rises, which are accompanied by Factor VIII expression decreases, the more likely you are to have long-term good Factor VIII outcomes. And that's been our strategy in Phase II and in Phase III, regardless of whether you're on steroids prophylactically or not.
Mohit Bansal
analystSo in terms of -- as investors thinking about how should we look at the data when we see the data. So from what I am hearing is that basically getting to 1, 1.5 in terms of bleed rate is probably going to be good data, similar to what we see with other agents, HEMLIBRA and all. And the real -- so that puts you at par with other therapies. And then the implemented benefit is...
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveMohit, it puts us as superior to standard of care.
Mohit Bansal
analystYes, it does. And it does put you as a superior as well as the thing is the benefit of just onetime treatment as well for a quite long time.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveYes.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. And in terms of safety, what you would be looking at and what do you think FDA and regulators care about from that trial?
Henry Fuchs
executiveWell, the infusion-associated reactions are pretty infrequent. And since it's a onetime dose, that has been deemed by people to be relatively negligible. People do care about how much steroid you need to receive over what period of time. Steroid-related side effects in the trials that we are monitoring presently have been fairly infrequently and even more infrequently of clinical consequence. In fact, we just provided an update to the agencies about the ongoing safety of the steroids in clinical trial. And there's not really a big level of risk associated with corticosteroid use for, on average, 24 to -- 24 or so weeks. So it's part of the drill, for sure, but it's not -- I don't think it's viewed as substantially in the way of the benefit of the treatment from the risk perspective.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. Right. So -- I mean one question I have on this is that -- I mean going forward -- I mean you have quite a lot of pipeline in gene therapy as well. So what lessons do you learn from this, which you can apply for your future programs? Because, I mean, it seems like FDA cares about long-term data. FDA and EMA has had long-term data for gene therapy and in a large patient population, at least for diseases where there is something out there.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. I think the thing that we've learned has kind of been learned in drug development over and over. And there are pendulum swings at the agency there. It goes from innovation facile to innovation resistant to innovation facile to innovation resistant. And the only buffer really companies can undertake because you can't time when the windows are going to close and the windows are going to open. So the only thing you can really do is hog up on sample size. And that's been a big part of the story of BioMarin over the last several years. In the orphan space, you can't knock down every question with a p-value that you can think of. But you can certainly insulate yourself best as possible with as big a sample size as you can have. 134 patients in our Phase III trial is going to be the largest gene therapy program ever submitted to the agency. So it'll give them a lot to chew on. So that's that -- I think for the going forward, the thing I think that we have to keep in our mind's eye is that although they might seem willing in a given moment to accept an innovative expedited approach, that moment can shift. And then what you'd be left with is if you hadn't done the planning for a more robust study, you'd have to start that more robust study later. And so we did that. That's what we did. We played right. We put the Phase III study in the field rather than do the accelerated approval study, wait for a decision and then start the confirmatory study. We just did it all at once because we were conservative as regards to the agencies. We knew -- look, we were talking to the agency about accelerated approval. They issued a guidance document after we had our end of Phase II meeting with them. Their guidance document reflected the discussions that we had fairly literally. So on the one hand, we're very confident that the accelerated approval, we talked about this, that the accelerated approval package was going to be well received. But on the other hand, we're always, in the back of our mind, suspicious about mind changing and dosed up another 100-and-X patients even after the interim analysis was successful because we didn't want to take any risks waiting for that full -- waiting for the full data.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveAnd Mohit again -- so in 4 months or so, we're going to go -- we're going to move from 16 patients, 6 months of data to 134 patients, 1 year of data. I mean this is going to be -- this is going to chair us a debate fundamentally here. And also we're going to have ABR, which is the [ key ] endpoint or the primary endpoint here. This is going to change things substantially here. This is the largest gene therapy trial ever implemented.
Henry Fuchs
executiveWe had -- years ago, we did the Vimizim program. So before -- for Vimizim, we had Naglazyme. Naglazyme with the pivotal trial was 37 patients, and hindsight, it was a 50% power trial. We undertook a 176-patient trial with Vimizim. During the whole process, the FDA was saying, you're doing the wrong statistical analysis, you're doing the wrong statistical analysis, you're doing the wrong statistical analysis. When we unblinded the 176 patients, we had statistical significance on the primary endpoint that they had used to approve other drugs, and all of their objections just disappeared. So it shows you what the power of a large -- relatively large sample size can do in the interactions with the agency.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. And so one related last question, I promise, on ROCTAVIAN. So one thing which surprised all of us was 2-year requirement versus initial thought of base case was probably 1 year. Do you have any understanding why FDA is taking this extreme approach? And I mean you will meet with the FDA and, obviously, data will actually help them guide. But what can you suggest which could help them maybe before aligned with the European regulators here?
Henry Fuchs
executiveSeveral things. I think that first of all, the -- given the power of the study, the odds of the study being unsuccessful at year 2 given success at year 1 is almost negligible. I think another is this is the prospective plan study. And if you change the study design in the middle of the study, you've changed -- it's not great science to do that. And there may be some back door pressure if it does get become available in Europe. I think the big driver of the consideration of FDA acceptance of the 1-year data is going to be what the data are. If the data are p of 0.051, you can kind of imagine them getting [Indiscernible] each. On the other hand, if the p-value is less than 0.05, it's going to be hard for them to continue to [ object ], I would think. But we have to have more discussion with them and understand it. You ask what's behind it. I don't know. It literally appeared for the first time, literally appeared. The word [ two ] in the context of our pivotal trial was never once spoken in our presence.
Mohit Bansal
analystIt's not even in FDA guidelines, right? I mean guidelines also did not suggest that, right?
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveNowhere. Nowhere.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. Got it. Okay. I promise you I'm not going to talk more about this. So let's just spend next 15 minutes on vosoritide and other aspects of the company. So now thinking about vosoritide, you have submitted in the U.S. and Europe, both. So maybe thinking -- so I'm sure you are thinking about vosoritide launch as well. So what are the puts and takes in the U.S. and Europe? I mean what could -- what would make it a successful launch? And where are you in terms of commercial readiness for this asset?
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveYes. I mean -- so we've started preparing for this launch before today. Obviously, we are shifting our plans a little bit because the plan was to launch ROCTAVIAN first and then vosoritide. But it looks like we might be launching one scenario about the same time, one scenario vosoritide launches before ROCTAVIAN. So we're actually shifting internally resources in the short term from ROCTAVIAN to vosoritide. But this is a market in [ boundary ] territories, which exclude India, China and most of Africa, of eligible patients of about 24,000 patients. There are over 100,000 achondroplasia patients in the world, but many of them are adults. So if you only look at the patients under 18, which would be eligible, it's about 22,000 to 24,000 patients. So it's a pretty significant market. Huge unmet need because there is no approved therapy today for achondroplasia. So we believe that there is -- based on marketing research, there is major interest in the product. Also, I think the parents of the patients because they will be the one making the treatment decision, they understand the need to act quickly to treat the patients as early as possible because every year of growth that is lost will -- that would probably never be -- the patients will never be able to get his growth back. And also as compared to our enzyme business, for instance, where the big challenge is to -- has been to find patients, to diagnose the patients properly. Here, the patients are extremely well identified and diagnosed. They are [ visually ] diagnosed before birth with ultrasound. So it's a very, very different dynamics than what we've been experiencing with the enzyme marketing.
Mohit Bansal
analystAre you starting some kind of registry or something where you can identify the patients before you launch the product?
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executive[ I feel for our history ] -- I mean we've done a lot of historical studies. I mean they -- again, as I said, these patients are extremely well identified. So the need for a registry is not the same as what has been for MPS [Indiscernible].
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. Got it. And then the other conversation you have to have is the payers as well. So how are payers thinking about it between like...
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveYes. So we have had limited discussion with payers so far. I mean, obviously, this is a product that is not going to be priced in the enzyme replacement category. We're not talking $300,000 to $400,000 or more a year. We're thinking about a pricing more like Kuvan, which is between $100,000 and $200,000, depending on the -- whether you're talking to patients -- by patients that are children or adults. And also what's interesting with vosoritide even in terms of pricing is that the treatment will only be for the first 18 years of life maximum. However, the benefit is going to be a lifetime benefit. So that does enter into the pricing decision and the pricing power. And the fact that there is no approved therapy today. And -- I mean you can talk about growth hormone because growth hormone actually is used to treat the disease that's nowhere near as severe like achondroplasia, and growth hormone is not inexpensive, and is 3 -- and has $3 billion market around the world -- $3.5 billion.
Mohit Bansal
analystRight. Got it. And then in terms of label, when you first get out of the market, I mean do you think the label will be more consistent with the study you did? There is a case to be made for earlier line -- earlier treatment as well, and I know you are doing other studies as well. But do you think the initial label would still be in line with the study you did versus treating some younger kids as well.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveHank, you can have it.
Henry Fuchs
executiveIt's a little early to talk about the label. I think the thing that came up at the advisory committee that the FDA held before we even submitted was that it would be expected that clinicians would extrapolate the data in children over 5, the children under 5. And agency should encourage sponsors to obtain data in children -- safety data in children under 5 such that at the time of the initial registration, safety data would be available because doctors will extrapolate and use the product in children under 5. And so that's what we did, and that's what we've agreed with the agency would be the pre-NDA -- that pre-NDA meeting would be the basis of the submission. And exactly how they write that up remains to be determined. But I think the use case is going to be very strong in children under 5.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. One question from an investor is that, so given the stock price right now and the value that is out there with the gene therapy platform pipeline and ROCTAVIAN is a delay, it's not that FDA has rejected the drug completely here. So what you are doing -- what you can do to showcase the value of the company to all stakeholders? And in some situations, companies do think about strategic evaluation and analysis. So is that something [ you've got on agenda ] as well?
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveI mean, again, we believe, as you say, that the ROCTAVIAN situation is a delay situation. So this is not the fact that the drug will never be approved. This is very different from what happened with our DMD drug a few years ago. We do have a track record of getting a lot of drugs approved. We've had 7 drugs approved by regulatories around the world. So we believe -- and also we have -- even after we pay the convert, we have over $1.4 billion of cash. We will be cash flow positive. We continue to be cash flow positive -- operating cash flow positive on a going-forward basis. So we believe we have staying power as an independent company. But obviously, if the Phase III trial fails, then maybe we should start thinking about other options. But I would say right now, it doesn't make any sense. It [Indiscernible].
Mohit Bansal
analystRight. Right. And then -- so moving to the gene therapy pipeline. You have HAE program as well and you have PKU program. Could you talk a little bit more about these programs? And what should we expect in the next 12 to 18 months about these programs?
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. The most important thing is the restart of clinical trials, which is really right around the corner to our understanding. In certain parts of world, the pandemic is better under control in some places than in other places. And so the clinical trial sites where the pandemic is under better control are starting to get active and available for enrolling patients. We have a dose escalation study with PKU gene therapy, 307 was the product number internally. And the plan is there's a dose escalation phase and then an expansion phase, and that expansion phase could be registrational. The communication plan that we have is that we'll communicate when we move into the registrational phase. And so -- I can't give you a time line for when that's going to be because it still depends on how many dose levels that we have to advance to. We're pretty optimistic that, that will be fewer dose escalations than more dose escalations because of our preclinical efficacy data. We believe that we'll be starting at a dose that has a pretty good chance of being efficacious. But until you're in humans, you don't really know. So there'll be a dose escalation phase and expansion phase. We've discussed with the agency endpoints for registration agency and the EMA as well. Actually, in the EMA, we had a joint scientific advice and what's called EUnetHTA, which is the European Network of Health Technology Associates. So we've already gotten for PKU gene therapy, our payer advice has already been baked into the 307 program. And the registrational component of that will have blood phenylalanine as a primary endpoint in the basis of there being 2 approved products in both the United States and Europe, approved on the basis of blood Phe. So feels fairly straightforward, feels fairly familiar in terms of endpoints registration and PKU, and we look forward to getting started in the clinic.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. One more question on the base business side and then the margin side, and I would like Brian to come in as well here. So -- I mean your base business is, give or take, $2 billion revenues right now. And how do you see this particular revenue base trending in the next few years? And given that ROCTAVIAN is kind of pushed out now and probably vosoritide would be a meaningful contributor in 2022, maybe. So just thinking about how your margin profile would evolve from here for the base business and then overall business going forward?
Brian Mueller
executiveYes. Thanks, Mohit. I can start, and J.J., feel free to fill in. So yes, obviously, the ROCTAVIAN delay is a delay in some of the ambitious growth that we were planning to start with the launch of ROCTAVIAN in the U.S. and Europe. So that will push out some of our longer-term aspirational goals, but it doesn't change them importantly. We're viewing this as timing. And then of course, we do have the prospects of vosoritide, which is now on file and could be launching in the second half of next year. So big picture long term doesn't change, just perhaps a little longer. And as you noted, the base business is still very healthy, small impact this year due to COVID, but still on track to generate over $1.8 billion in revenue. And as J.J. mentioned, positive operating cash flows. Just a reminder, we do have Kuvan U.S. loss of exclusivity coming, which we're monitoring closely. But after that, Palynziq is still launching. And the base business and some of the other enzyme therapies like Vimizim, Naglazyme and Brineura, some of which have been in the market for a long time now, are still growing. We're still finding new patients, patients are growing. It's weight-based dosing. So we'll see growth in that base business over the next few years, we expect, in the low double-digit levels. Still to be supplemented by ROCTAVIAN and vosoritide, just a little bit later in the case of ROCTAVIAN. Is that helpful?
Mohit Bansal
analystThat is very helpful, actually. One question I'm getting from investors and -- is that -- so with the European filing, it does seem like you don't know or -- I should not put the words in your mouth. Basically, what do you think -- how do you think the mechanism will work? You submit the data, then the clock resets here and then EMA takes another 18 months there? Or is it more like a clock pause here where -- then EMA will tell you how much time they will take to review the data?
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. We're working with EMA now on clock management and we haven't finalized that yet. So as soon as we do, we will let you know. Our working belief is that in -- as J.J. said, in the early part of next year, we'll have top line data from the Phase III clinical trial. And if those data are positive, we believe that, that would motivate agencies around the world to accept an expeditious filing, but we have not yet confirmed that in Europe or in the United States. In terms of the specific timing, again, as you pointed out, EMA did find the middle ground, that is asking for the 1-year data. But exactly how and when that appears on their desk is the subject of ongoing discussion. We don't expect that that's a long discussion. The arguments have been made and the procedure is going to conclude.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. So we have one minute left. So one last question. Five years down the line, Citi Biopharma Conference -- 20th Citi Biopharma Conference 2025, I hope we are again sitting here. What would make you look back and think, oh, boy, these were great 5 years for us?
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveI mean that indeed -- I mean that indeed -- the Phase III trial in January is as positive as we anticipated. Consequently, that indeed that we get to launch ROCTAVIAN at the end of next year in Europe and either end of next year in the U.S. or end of 2022 in the U.S. and then have pretty significant growth from there. Same thing with vosoritide. Vosoritide, actually, in terms of value, is a very significant product because it's product therapy. It's different from gene therapy. So it's going to have a very long life cycle. And then the company is significantly profitable with -- initially before the ROCTAVIAN delay, we were shooting our goal was kind of $5 billion in revenues by 2025. Obviously, it's going to be a little bit more difficult now. But hopefully, we will reach that in '26, '27. But again, we believe this is a delay as always. And actually, we know if we hadn't tried to file with only 16 patients, encouraged by regulatory authorities, we would be in the exact same position as where we are today.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. No, that's fair. Thank you. On that high note, thank you, J.J., Hank and Brian. Really appreciate you joining us today and have this kind of discussion. Thank you very much.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveThanks.
Henry Fuchs
executiveYes. Thanks.
Brian Mueller
executiveThanks, Mohit. Thanks, everybody.
Mohit Bansal
analystHave a great day. Thank you.
Jean-Jacques Bienaimé
executiveBye.
Mohit Bansal
analystBye.
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