Birla Corporation Limited (500335) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Birla Corporation Q2 FY '25 Earnings Conference Call hosted by HDFC Securities. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rajesh Ravi. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Sejal. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of HDFC Securities, we welcome all of you to the Q2 and H1 FY '25 Earnings Call of Birla Corporation. From the management side, we have Mr. Sandip Ghose, MD and CEO; and Mr. Aditya Saraogi, Group CFO. I now hand over the call to the management for the opening remarks, which will be followed by Q&A session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you very much, Rajesh. And good afternoon, and welcome to everyone. It's rather heartening to see we have almost 100 or a little over 100 now, gets available despite what should I say, not so encouraging results. So that's a matter of encouragement for us that all of you, therefore, stand by our comments and communication. And we have been in the past tried to be as realistic and as to the best of our judgment, portray what we see the market and our company's prospects are, and that's how we would like to approach this particular call as well in talking to you. Normally, probably when the results are not so good, people say much more to explain, but I wouldn't do that. We have explained our stuff in the -- whatever we have to say in our press release, which most of you would have seen. All that I'll say is we recognize the market realities, and we saw the headwinds. And our strategy is in that sort of a situation to keep our head down, bat with -- play with a straight bat, stick to the wicket, hold your ground rather than try to do any shenanigans or try any kind of -- trying any helicopter shots or anything of that kind. And that's how we would like to navigate in the days to come as well. Because we remain, as we have stated in the press release, cautiously optimistic. Though I have seen many people expecting a huge upturn in the second half of which almost a month is already over, so that leaves 5 months and people have expected -- some have talked of a massive upturn. While we definitely see things improving on both price as well as on volume and demand front, but we are not painting an extremely bullish scenario. We have projected our second half in terms of volume increase at about 8% to...

On a Y-on-Y basis, based on H2 volume.

H2 volumes, we have looked at second half about year on -- Y-on-Y basis, 7% to 8%, and that's how we'll stick. And for our entire year, we are looking at about 4% thereabout plus or minus, and that's what we think is realistic at the moment to assume. In terms of EBITDA, we are again looking at between first half to second half. We have projected about -- between INR 150 to INR 170 upswing in the EBITDA format. And that is how we see it translating. We don't see -- again, going by some market indications, people have talked about getting only through realization, people have talked about getting INR 200 gain by realization alone. We don't see that in such an optimistic scenario. So we have taken our all told, given our cost -- continuing cost efforts to reduce cost, increase our -- the geo mix and everything else. We have projected about INR 170, as I said. And that is all that we would say by way of guidance at the moment. And the rest of it, we remain consistent with our strategy in whatever we have been doing. And our approach would be to -- we have had sort of -- in our older plants, our core markets, we have had a little slip in terms of capacity utilization, and I'll explain why that has happened. And we would -- what we really look forward to is to be able to take our capacity utilization up in those plants to over 100% as we had been doing or close to 100% in our -- especially in our Central India plants. And Mukutban, where we had achieved a very good ramp up and scaling up, and we hope that the pricing scenario would allow us to, again, get back to the same kind of levels of about 60% last year, what does that we...

Capacity utilization, 58% last year.

No. Towards the end, we were almost operating at about 60%. So that is the kind of level we would like to get back to, hopefully, with the demand picking up and if there is a slight upturn in prices. Though in the West, especially Maharashtra, we have been circumspect because of the elections which have been announced and that impact will continue for about a month at least. And whichever government comes in, by the time they settle in, new funds are sanctioned, et cetera, I think we will get into at least January there. In our core market, we are also factoring in the Maha Kumbh, which is going to happen in Prayagraj, that's once in a 12-year event, as you know, and that entire area, the logistics get impacted. So that will also something which will eat in to the peak season period of January, February, which is usually there. So we are being cautious on that count as well. But the real pain point in the last 2 quarters has been -- in our judgment, in our view, has been the non-trade sector. If there is any impact, one -- everybody talks about consolidation in the industry, if there is any, I think, visible impact of consolidation, we have seen that happening in the non-trade sector, where the prices had crashed, come down very abnormally or to an unrealistic levels in the last quarter, especially and in the markets where we operate in north and center. We are not -- we were never major players in the non-trade category or OPC category. As you know, historically, we have tried to keep our non-trade levels to below 20% and our OPC at below 15% of our capacity over there. Now because of the whole market dynamics, the trade sector or the individual homebuilding sector since they were not as buoyant in the last 2 quarters, as all of you would have noted and seen there has been a major market shift towards non-trade. And because of the market shift towards non-trade and also OPC component -- I'm talking this, I'm talking about the industry as a whole, not about us. So since the market shifted towards non-trade and also OPC, and overall industry capacity utilization came down by a couple of percentage points by our reckoning or whatever figures which are available from the analyst reports which are coming out, there has been a shift in that direction, and they were price drops very, very significant, which made it unviable for us to be participating in the non-trade and OPC segment in many markets. Especially in Rajasthan, where things dipped, as I said, to very abnormal levels in the pricing of non-trade and OPC, similarly, in UP, in Bihar, things and people who are participating. So we deliberately chose to keep our exposure limited there because we certainly didn't want to operate at a variable cost loss or a cash loss to be in those markets. And that has resulted in our slightly lower capacity utilization than what we are capable of and what could have done, and we have not certainly tried to push volumes unnecessarily, which would have hurt both us as well as the industry. We try to be prudent in that, but we hope from whatever we are hearing if the non-trade prices, if people are -- if there is more, I should say, rational pricing and market things happen in the non-trade and OPC sector, that will have its positive rub-off in the trade sector as well, and that should benefit everybody, and that is where -- which we see as a silver lining going forward. Finally, coming back to summarize, as we said, we are looking at second half in a very sort of a positive, but in -- with a great deal of realism, pragmatism. And therefore, we are commenting our growth for the entire year, we are talking about, as we said, around 4% in the volume growth. Annually, we are talking at about 8% to 9% or around 8% is the growth. We've talked about the EBITDA increase, which is around INR 170 is what we are guidance, which we are giving just now for second half, the increase between first half to second half. And with that, I will rest my introductory remarks, open up for questions, and we'll be happy to wherever we can elaborate further or comment and -- or where we can't, we'll be very honest and frank enough to tell you our situation. The one last one which I missed, which is mentioned in our press release is our progress of our Kundangunj third line is going on satisfactorily and on track. And we hope when that comes in, next year, we will have some of the incentives, which we lost because of Kundangunj incentive getting expired last March, will get restored. And between that, and we've already started clocking in incentives from Mukutban. Between these 2, we'll be kind of back to a level playing field that what we were pre March 2024. So that's how we'll -- the only other major significant change which we see. Some of our competitors have the advantage today of having incentives, especially in UP, which is enabling them to participate much more aggressively in the non-trade segment or even the OPC segment where they're doing. We are constrained there. Now that, as I said, our intention is not to sell more OPC or more non-trade, we would like to remain in the trade segment where we feel we have very strong brand assets. Our brands are today very well accepted, especially Perfect Plus and Samrat has always been heritage strong brand in UP. Chetak is a heritage strong brand in Rajasthan. And our distribution system, which we have our distribution assets, go-to-market assets, they're very strong in our core markets. So as soon as market bounce back, we hope to be back again on the driver's seat as far as the trade and our channel sales are concerned. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

Sir, just a couple of data points needed. What was the incentive that we book for Mukutban in Q2? And if possible in third and fourth quarter put together, how much are we likely to book the incentive for Mukutban? And also the volume for Q2 if possible?

I'll let Mr. Saraogi answer that.

So in Q2, we have booked incentive of INR 17 crores for Mukutban.

1-7.

1-7, okay? And what was the other question?

How much more in the second half we are likely to book and what was the volume of Mukutban?

We had guided for total incentive of about INR 100 crores for the whole year. We are standing by that guidance. Okay...

Yes. And what was the volume in 2Q and the lead distance for second quarter?

The volume was 50,000 tonnes and the lead -- 5 lakh tonnes and the lead distance was around 340 kilometers.

[indiscernible] distance for the full entire company.

For Mukutban, it was 425 kilometers, for Mukutban.

You're asking for the entire company or you're asking for Mukutban?

Entire company, sir.

For entire company, it was around 350 the lead distance.

Okay. Okay. And last, sir, just a clarification, this Prayagraj, 1.4 million tonnes, when it is likely to start?

Q1, we have mentioned...

Not Prayagraj, we are talking about Kundangunj third line.

Yes, that is -- that we know. But on the Prayagraj, 1.4 million tonnes when it will start?

No, that we will announce. We have not announced commencement because it is in the pipeline, but we probably starting. We will announce whenever we are ready for it.

Okay. Okay. Lastly, if possible, the CapEx for full year INR 800 crores we said and we have done INR 200-odd crores. So any downward revision in the CapEx?

CapEx for the whole year, we expect to do about -- within INR 700 crores.

The next question is from the line of Jyoti Gupta from Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.

Sorry, before you go on, just one clarification for Dolat Capital. What we are saying is our first unit which will come on stream is Kundangunj. Prayagraj is in the pipeline, but we have not commenced construction there. So we are not committing the date when it is going to come in. It is also linked to certain other things. So right now, what we are focusing, what we have visibility and committing is Kundangunj. It should not be read as Prayagraj is not happening. Prayagraj is very much as part of our plan, like a few other locations of grinding unit which we have announced, but we talk about this specifically only when we have started the project, broken ground, and that is where we stand as far as Prayagraj is concerned.

Can I ask my question?

Yes, please go ahead, sorry.

So in second half, you said your EBITDA per tonne will improve by INR 170. Just wanted to have an understanding in terms of cost, where do you see the cost? And what kind of cost rational, means improvement you'll see from Project Shikhar in terms of numbers from Mukutban and Unnati. And your logistic optimization, what kind of numbers you're building in the second half on these 2 projects? In case of you had anything...

So these 2 projects, in the second half, we are expecting efficiency of around INR 70 a tonne for Unnati and Shikhar taken together.

Each, after taken together INR 70?

Taken together INR 70.

And INR 100 will come basically from raw material and the volumes and the other...

INR 170 is a cumulative effect of realization, cost optimization, efficiency improvement, everything.

Yes. Okay. Okay. And I could see that you are not very positive, quite cautious on the second half, but obviously, first -- so how do you think the -- any particular impact apart from the non-trade segment that you see is coming from the consolidation, you're impacted like adverse impact from the consolidation in your core markets, apart from non-trade, which has taken downturn by INR 300 per tonne decline [Foreign Language]?

We are not seeing any impact there. As I told you, it's a function of -- we are luckily, Jyoti, given our capacity, as we said, we have been operating at 100% capacity, and we would be very -- we don't see that as a problem. And I talked about in those core markets, touch wood, fingers crossed, we have very strong brand assets. We have got very strong go-to-market assets. Today, we can say with great deal of -- with some degree of, I think, price in terms of our people strength, we believe that the branding of the company has gone up significantly, at least from how we see interest of people, especially in sales and marketing, to come and join us at various levels today. So I think we are quite well placed to take on the market opportunities as soon as there are some tailwinds which come in and then the market table improves. I deliberately talked about the non-trade because that's an area where we don't participate, and that's where an area, we are limited players participate in a limited way. And certainly, it is not OPC. It's not our preferred product. We don't like to do that. But when those segments come down, there is -- obviously, there is an impact, a spillover impact on the trade segment. So I am taking hope or encouragement from certain pronouncements which I hear in the market where people are talking about increasing bottom line contribution through realization of INR 200. I expect some of that will come through the non-trade and the OPC segment as well, which should auger well for trade and the blended cement segment, where we are major players.

Okay. Sir, anything that we expect from the Orient -- the acquisition of Orient Cement, do you think this is with Adani...

We don't operate in that market. We are very small operators in Telangana. We just -- we'll just watch it from the ring side. We are on the other side of the fence, there sitting in Maharashtra.

The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies.

A couple of questions. Firstly, on your premium segment, which is very high overall mix. So when you say that the price of the trade segment sort of gets impacted by non-trade, is the premium segment also gets impacted? Likewise, how is the difference sort of changes?

See premiums don't exist in isolation. Premium, you are always -- when you're talking about premium, you're talking about a base price. So if the base price drops, obviously, while the delta might remain similar or delta may marginally grow, increase, but overall, in the price table there is -- you're going to have only so much of a difference between what's happening in the non-trade and the trade. So our premium, we consider that to be a competitive advantage of this company. As I've said in the past that we are one of the few or perhaps the only company where we can say with some degree of pride who struggles almost equally between the premium and the popular segment. I don't call it popular, I call it the value segment. So between the value and the premium, we operate almost on equal footing. So to that extent, we are able to calibrate some of our shift. So therefore, in this quarter, you'll see when part of the realization which we have delivered, why we have been able to keep our realization higher or the drop lower than the market drop is because we have been able to shift volumes towards premium in most of our markets. That's how our premium volumes have increased. But we don't see any absolute virtue in either premium or value segment. We will offer what the customer wants. And so if the value segment again picks up, when I'm upping my capacity utilization, not all of it will come from premium, it will come from value as well because that's a very important segment of the market. You cannot -- you don't operate right at the top end. You -- also the middle matters, and we would like to be present everywhere.

Sure. One other question on incentives. The guidance for INR 100 crores incentives in FY '25 compares to INR 160 crores -- INR 140 crores to INR 160 crores in the past 3 years. Is that right or...

Yes, yes, yes. So obviously, the delta between what we were getting in Kundangunj and this period, especially '24-'25, you will find that as a gap. Because Kundangunj has stopped from 1st of April. And only Mukutban is what has come in its place. The Mukutban incentive are lower than what we were getting in Kundangunj. So there is -- therefore, that is where you are seeing the INR 160 crores to INR 100 crores. That is the kind of gap which you are getting. Hopefully, next year, as we go on commissioning Kundangunj Line 3, that will get restored. So you'll find us back. As I said, it will be a kind of level playing field once more between the 2 places, we will go back to our original levels of incentives in the company.

And the last question on your comment earlier regarding Orient Cement, you said you sit on a corner of the other...

We sit on the other side of the fence because we are in Maharashtra. They're mostly in Telangana and the South. We don't operate in that market much, in their core market. Even in Maharashtra, they are much more in the Western and the lower parts of it. We are concentrated in Vidarbha, where they have a very modest presence. And so we'll have to see how it pans out post their -- the acquisition because I've been reading just like you, a lot of analysis because if you were to look at Adani as a combined team, Adani already has a presence in those areas with their own brands of Ambuja and ACC. So how much is this Orient going to add to their presence, it's not easy having brand integration, what will be their brand strategy. Those are things -- so we don't see Orient really affecting us significantly as per their existing operation. In future, I saw that they have got lease in Rajasthan. If that comes up, how that will pan out or recently, they had -- I saw they're tying up on some fly ash in Madhya Pradesh, in Betul area. All those -- those are in future. But similarly, they had a grinding unit plant in Maharashtra, which they gave up -- they had a tie-up with Adani maybe since this was in the anvil, that has gone. So those are futuristic. But as on today, Orient and we don't have much of an overlap.

The next question is from the line of [ Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Company ].

Sir, as you mentioned about INR 100 crores being the total incentive number that we are factoring in for Mukutban, how much actual cash have we received for the first half out of the INR 17 crores or the entire balance is also pending?

See, INR 100 crores is for the company, not especially Mukutban. There's some small incentive in some others units also. In the first half, we had received around INR 120 crores from Uttar Pradesh.

It's not from Mukutban, boss. You don't -- these incentives don't happen hand in hand that as soon as you claim, the next day you get. Like today, I believe you are getting income tax refunds immediately 24 hours. It doesn't happen in subsidy.

No, it comes with a lag.

Lag. So we are getting...

Yes, yes. So what is the closing balance, sir, other than whatever we have booked as incentive, how much is still left to be receivable in the receivable account?

Excluding West Bengal, where the matter is under sub judice, it is about INR 450 crores. And in fact, in West Bengal also, there's been a development in the quarter. The state government has filed an appeal against the High Court order, which had decided the matter in our favor. So that matter has also been dismissed by the Supreme Court. So currently, the stage government does not have any legal recourse in the matter.

Sir, can you come again. INR 450 crores is the figure you mentioned that is still left to be received, but...

The total, if you were to say, what is the receivable on account of incentives from various governments as on date, it is INR 450 crores.

Excluding West Bengal.

Excluding West Bengal, where we have an additional amount, which was under -- which was sub judice because the government had contested it. And that contest has been disposed of by the Supreme Court. So the ball is back in West Bengal Government's court. And they will have to -- when they settle it is a different matter. So excluding that, this INR 450 crores, on which -- we see that as a timing issue and not any dispute issue.

Okay. And can you mention that figure also, which is under dispute litigation from the West Bengal government?

Around INR 140 crores.

Around INR 140 crores. And now we have an upper hand because of the disposal by Supreme Court?

We were always on an upper hand. We were always on strong grounds. It's not a question of any upper hand, lower hand, but nothing under hand.

Okay. Sir, with -- Saraogi ji, for the capital work in progress, the closing balance stands at...

Many questions, Saket, I told you, you're in Calcutta, you can't take advantage of so many questions.

Sir, last question, and then I can come in queue or sir, [Foreign Language]?

You don't monopolize. Go ahead.

Sir, obviously, the closing balance for capital work in progress is INR 558 crores. With Mukutban -- sorry, with Kundangunj getting operationalized by first quarter, what will be [Foreign Language] current year [Foreign Language]? And for Kundangunj, how much have we spent as of now?

I can give you this figure offline. You can connect separately on this please, okay.

[Foreign Language], sir. Sir, I'll join the queue. And also, sir, in the press release, the update for coal mines are not mentioned, sir. So if you could give some color on...

We're expecting to start commencement of operations from Q1 of FY '26, okay.

Okay. And we are still expecting coal, sir. [Foreign Language].

[Foreign Language].

Currently, one of our Bikram coal work is operational, I think so. So we are expecting...

Where we are expecting as per the capacity of the block, this is around 2,50,000 tonnes on an annual basis.

The next question is from the line of Mangesh from Centrum Broking Limited.

Sir, my question is regarding demand in UP and MP. So I just wanted your views in terms of how much there could have been the demand decline in this quarter on a Y-o-Y basis? And was it only because of monsoon and election after effect? Or you think -- and when do you expect the recovery in the same?

Mangesh, we cannot give you exact other estimated figures. Those figures of market decline, you will get it from the analyst figures because today, there is no published data in that regard. So we would not like to comment on that. But in terms of causes, it is also money availability because a lot of fund release from the governments have got delayed in many places or they've got -- government had other priorities. It has gone for different schemes in different places. So some of the fund release has been an issue in both these markets. And that is what has probably delayed some of the state-level development work or development expenditure, which happens because money has probably got more to welfare schemes and other stuff. There has been no elections, as you know, in MP and UP in the last 6 months. So that is the overall situation.

Okay. And sir, another question was on the pricing front. So we feel that pricing post August has improved marginally, but what is our current realization compared to the exit of September? Is there any improvement?

I don't think there is any significant improvement, Mangesh. This is -- more or less, it comes. One has not really seen any consistent improvement or improvement with sticks. And I personally don't expect to see any very significant changes between now and at least till mid-November.

Got it, sir. Sir, final question to Saraogi ji. So given that we would have a very weak -- not weak, operating cash flow this year because of weak realization. Do we see debt increasing? And any target or guidance on debt levels by the end of this year?

So the debt level, we expect to close around INR 3,000 crores. Net debt, we expect to close around INR 3,000 crores. So like our cash from operations has been less than what we had budgeted, but then we have also scaled on our CapEx. I think earlier, we had guided for INR 1,000 crores. That also we have brought it down to INR 700 crores. So we are calibrating our outflows also according to the inflow.

The next question is from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities.

I have two questions. First, the margin guidance for second half INR 170-odd which you're looking up -- looking forward to, first half, we have done close to INR 540. And even if we add up the INR 170, full year margin would be hardly to the tune of INR 620, INR 630 versus -- no, no, full year results. Usually -- first half, we have done INR 535 and second half, you're looking at INR 170 higher. So close to INR 700-odd. So the full year average would work out to be INR 620 versus INR 800 we have done in FY '24. Are you not building any price improvement in the second half? Or what is...

Of course, we are building in, Rajesh. As we said, INR 170 is not going to come purely from cost savings. Our cost and other initiatives, as we indicated, will probably give us about INR 70, and rest will come partly from price and a few other things as well. But we are not being bullish enough to say that we're going to get INR 200 into the bottom line from price alone. We are positioning about -- because price increases are to get INR 100 between now and March end, that's an average, okay?

Correct, sir. You need higher price hike before...

So average to get there, even if you would -- I don't want to get into showing you back of the envelope calculations, you see how much it can peak, and it's a regional factor. Others -- I'm not questioning other people's projections. They could be having other regions in mind. We don't operate in the South, where they may be having more. I am looking at our specific market, Maharashtra. I told you, I see Maharashtra. I've been cautious in Maharashtra because of elections and the post-election impact because it takes a little time for -- again, governments to settle down, monies to come out. Maharashtra also, there are various welfare schemes and all committed. So I don't know how soon monies will come and how much impact that will have on the demand and the pricing. Similarly, I'm being cautious. Our core market is East UP. And the peak season where all of us look at a spurt in volumes and prices is usually, as you know, in this industry from second week of January to February middle. That's the real time when you find historically, cement prices go up sharply. But that's the time when we are going to see UP some major dislocations, okay, with the Maha Kumbh and everything else. And that time, movement becomes an issue and various things. So we are being -- perhaps you might say a little extra cautious, but we'd rather be conservative than be bullish and come back to you cutting a sorry face next when we speak in 3 months' time.

Sure. And on volumes, any thought process, what sort of growth -- Q2 obviously has been bad and for full year?

We mentioned that, Rajesh, we are looking at second half about around 8% -- 7% to 8%.

Okay. And last question, sir, there is 2 large investments sitting on your books, UltraTech and Century Textiles. Cumulatively, if I look at approximately INR 700-odd crores value. So is there any thought? Do the management or the promoters have any willingness? Or can these be sold off and used to reduce debt or for some of the efficiency programs?

There is no embargo in selling these investments. We have a mandate by the Board. We can sell these investments whenever we want to. These are nonstrategic investments. But we will not sell these to settle or reduce debt, okay? So if we feel that we can deploy these proceeds from sale of these investments into a productive asset, which can yield good return, those kind of things, at that point of time, we'll consider.

Okay. So because you would be doing this major expansion also, so this could come handy.

It could come for various things, Rajesh. This is -- we would do at a time of our choosing and in terms of the opportunity. Since you have been associated with the company from a very long time, you know that we were sitting on a fairly large treasury balance for a long time until we made our Reliance acquisition, okay. So we did it when the right opportunity, when we felt it was right in our prudence. Similarly, we'll take a call on that. But we don't have any compulsion right now to dilute our debt by selling this. That is certainly a question we can tell you categorically, that's not in terms of our plan.

The next question is from the line of [ Girija Ray ] from Yes Securities.

So yes, see, getting incentive as the additional money makes sense and it is really adding to the profitability. But in terms of core business, so if I see in fourth quarter FY '24, we have done an EBITDA per tonne of around INR 974, now which is pretty good. And significantly, I can see first quarter, second quarter, there is a huge decline. Even in fact, second quarter FY '25, we saw around 50%, 60% of decline from fourth quarter, if I compare. So do we -- again, fourth quarter will be a volume-driven quarter. Obviously, volume is higher, then again, your EBITDA per tonne will come down. So my question is that, so what kind of projections we can go ahead for fourth quarter FY '25 EBITDA per tonne? Is this in March, we can see somewhere in between INR 700 to INR 800? Because price, again, I do not see much price kind of appreciation in coming near term...

See, that's your view. You have to take a view, and it's not also a question of your view versus our view. It's a -- you have to see the entire thing. We can only give you our point of view. First of all, when you are looking at last year fourth quarter to now, obviously, you will agree that the drop which you have seen is not isolated for us. Already, you have seen 3, 4 companies results are declared, and we are no exception in that pattern. And in fact, in some ways, from whatever we have seen, you're a better analyst, maybe we have done a tad better than other people in terms of the management of the bottom line in terms of the drop. So that being one. Now, if you were to compare -- to answer one question of your's, last year, last year was very interesting, and I found a slightly odd in a way in the fourth quarter. Historically, in cement from as long as I have been, fourth quarter, the surge you see is both on volumes and prices. Last year, fourth quarter was only volume without prices, okay. There was no substantial increase in prices. There was a surge in volume. Now, this fourth quarter is a matter of conjecture. When you're talking of volumes, whether it will be volumes in isolation, if it's volumes in isolation, not just for us, others who are projecting INR 200, where will the INR 200 come from. Obviously, that has to come along with surge in prices. Now, for the INR 200 what other people are projecting, we don't see it coming -- we would not see it. We would not bet our horses to expect it will be that high. So we have been conservative in this, but we certainly see a price improvement in the last quarter. And where I see the price improvement coming, without getting more specific despite some of the other issues which we talked about, the elections in Maharashtra, or Uttar Pradesh, Prayagraj, et cetera. And what I hinted in the beginning, I think the prices today, real abnormal prices are in the non-trade. And if the non-trade prices pick up and people become more -- there is more rational pricing in non-trade and especially in the OPC segment, I see you are immediately going to see a positive impact or positive rub of spillover in the trade segment. And that has happened in the last 2 months also. If you see what are the areas where there has been improvement in prices, when we talk of nationally, you don't see any kind of price changes between August, September, October, but areas where there has been actually a price increase, say, North has recorded some price increase. The North price increase has essentially come if you go through, it has come because people have corrected the non-trade prices. Before that non-trade was pulling trade hugely down. Once some amount of sanity was restored in the non-trade prices, trade picked up. Similarly, we therefore hope that if that phenomena you see across the geographies, it's not across the country. You will start seeing some impact of that coming. And so at least you will get back to normal levels. Right now, I think the prices are depressed below normal, and that will come. And once that level playing field, if we come back to that by November or December end, which is entirely possible. It's just a matter of, as I said, some sanity getting restored. If that happens, last quarter, you are going to see both volume and price increase. People are talking about pent-up demand. Pent-up demand will come. With pent-up demand, obviously, price will also go. It is not going to be just volume.

Sorry to cut you. So you mean to say the price level which is holding right now, so this is bottom out, hence there is no further decline in price. Like I can just assuming? Or is there any kind of further -- I mean to say, there is no further decline in price and there might be some chances...

Yes, I think that will be a fair assumption. Things can only improve here. I don't see further decline happening because whatever disturbances, those are more or less done. Now, Diwali over. Chhath will be over. By then your new crops will come in, in a harvesting season. Money will be there in the system. All of that. Labor will return back from the Chhath thing [indiscernible], harvesting and all that, people will go back. You will see -- I don't see therefore certainly scope for further slide in decline. And I repeat myself again and again, that's the only conjecture I'm making, sticking my neck out, if sanity returns in non-trade prices, which are obviously in the hands of the big players who are -- big players who participate in non-trade on -- especially our national accounts, et cetera, you're going to see benefits of positive rub off of that also on trade.

Fair enough. Sir, my second question is into premium segment. Right now, it is 71%, it seems, right? So...

71, what?

Sorry, 61%.

Yes.

Okay. So this has improved a lot. Means, like it was 51%, now it is 61%. So...

I wouldn't call it improvement. It will be wrong on my part to -- as I was trying to clarify earlier, this is strategic. If my -- today, the prices have come down, and if I am selling below capacity for whatever reason I can't participate, I would focus which is giving me the maximum return. So it's a combination of product mix and geo-mix. If I'm selling in markets which are giving me the geo-mix wise, it is the best market because it's close to my operations. And in those areas, if my premium product has a greater pull, I would sell more. I've got nothing against selling anything in the value or the popular segment, okay? But if the value and popular segment, I find there is no [Foreign Language] happening, and here, I have got a thing, I would rather take the INR 20, INR 25 premium, but I don't want to vacate that segment. This is a very unique advantage this company has. I don't know how many people recognize that. We are a company where we have almost equal, we straddle between both the segments almost equally, okay.

I truly agree with this because we are the highest premium segment sell in the industry since, and that is a good part in our company.

On both sides. First, use my favorite expression, we are a double-engine company.

Okay. And lastly, what was the Mukutban utilization rate this quarter?

Rajesh, let's move on to the other one. We have given the figures.

The next question is from the line of [ Raj from Arjav Partners ].

Sir, I just wanted to know your full year growth guidance.

Boss, we have said that, boss, already. We have said...

Whatever we have said that...

We repeat that. Full year growth guidance we have said in terms of volumes, we have said 3% to 4%. And we have given just now, as you heard, our EBITDA also we have given...

Sorry, you were not clear. Can you repeat it again?

I said, volume we have given already. We said that the full year volume will be about 4%.

3% to 4%.

3% to 4% is what we have said. And EBITDA also, we have given...

H2, you can take it from there.

H2, we have told about INR 170 over H1, which is about INR 530. So you can do your average of the 2 and come to the number. Just like Rajesh did just before your question.

The next question is from the line of Amit from Axis Capital.

So just wanted to check captive coal mining status and when would you start the captive coal mines? And also, with the pet coke pricing now having come off and do these Kcal, I think pet coke is now almost 1.5. What kind of cost benefits would still come in from the captive coal mines?

Captive coal mines, already we had informed for Bikram. Already, Sial Ghoghri in operation for which we do around 2.5 lakh to 3 lakh tonnes per annum. And for Bikram coal mines, we are going to start -- the first coal production going to start from the Q1 FY '26. And pet coke, because our only -- requirement of the pet coke is only in one plant only, and we have reduced the requirement of the pet coke and more on we are in the indigenous pool. And wherever there is a change in the prices, we take it into account. And our coal prices, you can see in the last quarter is INR 1.47 per kilo calorie. And it will be -- if the changes are there, we are not seeing much of changes, maybe slight change will be there depending on the prices of the petrol which is going in the market now.

So in terms of the cost differential, our cost from Bikram coal block is expected to be around INR 1.10 per thousand kilo cal. And ongoing rate for fuel in the central region is between INR 140 and INR 150. So that is kind of a difference that exists as per the current fuel price.

Thank you very much. I think that brings us to the last question, and it's really heartening to see we are ending the day with 150 people on the call. That's very encouraging. Thank you so much for joining, taking the time out on a busy day. I see today, there were at least 3 con-calls in the cement sector. The one in the morning, one now and one after us. That you took time out for us, it's really heartening. Thank you very much.

Thank you. On behalf of HDFC Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.