Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 1, 2022

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Electrical Equipment conference_presentation 34 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#1

All right. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We are here with Greg Cameron, who is the CFO of Bloom Energy. So Bloom Energy, as some of you may or may not know, is one of the leading fuel cell manufacturers in the U.S. or not just in the U.S. but globally, right? And they have been increasingly talking about getting into hydrogen fuel cells as well as hydrogen electrolyzers and carbon capture. So we'll talk about that in a second here. But prior to that, Greg, if you want to just give a brief introduction of something or just talk about any early prepared remarks and then we'll go from there.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#2

Yes, yes. Great. First of all, I just -- thanks for the invitation today. It is great to be with a crowd of people over the last couple of days. What a lovely venue and for all of us to be back together again is great. So Bloom Energy is -- the company itself was founded 20 years ago. We've been commercial for 10 years. We've been public for about 3.5 years. And the company is built on the solid oxide technology as the basis. Our founders took it from the Mars program with NASA and brought it to Bloom and spent 10 years figuring out the product they want to commercialize. And the first product was the natural gas fuel cell, which converts natural gas to electricity without combustion. So there's no SOx, no NOx, no particulates. But what's great about that platform is it can work on natural gas, it can work on biogas. It can work on hydrogen. It can work on land, it can work on sea. And the same basic platform, if we run it in reverse, can create green hydrogen using renewable sources of energy, and that's the basis of our technology. And we've spent time doing it. And last year, we were on the cusp of $1 billion of revenue. Our margins so far are in the mid- to low 20s, and we think we've got an incredible growth point from where we are. And we clearly feel like we're at that inflection point for companies that as they grow and their commercial opportunities start to materialize, and we can branch out even more.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#3

Perfect. And maybe if I just go directly into the Q&A here on a couple of the questions on top of our minds. So just first on this guidance. So you talked about $1 billion in '21. And '22, and you have some transition going on in terms of capacity additions. So just help us understand like how should we think about that revenue growth once we come out of this 2020...

Gregory Cameron

executive
#4

Yes. So over the last 4 years, since we IPO-ed, we've grown the core of the business, the product and service business here in -- around call it, 28%, 29% CAGR over that period. And we expect that to continue going forward. That basic fuel cell business will continue to grow, and we'll have additional opportunities that will come on later, and we can talk about that from the additional guidance that we give. But for 2022, it's interesting. It took 10 years to fill up a 50,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Sunnyvale, California, where we manufacture our stacks and columns, the heart of our machine, and we need to go get new capacity. So last year, we leased out a 164,000 square foot facility in Fremont, and that's going to give us an additional gigawatt of capacity. So we're going to go from 280 megawatts to an additional gigawatt on top of that with Fremont. And we think that will last us probably 2.5 to 3.5 years as we grow before we'll have to bring our next facility online. In the near term, we had an amazing fourth quarter. We sold everything that was made, and we were pulling things out of WIP, through finished goods and getting it sold right up through the end of the year, which was great for us, really getting to our growth targets for '21, but as we come into '22, we are not only retooling the new Fremont facility, but we're building up our inventories and everything else. We'll grow our core business, products and services, 27% on average this year again. We are getting out of our installation business. So when you start a new company and you ask people to help you install your servers, it's hard to get their intention at the speed we wanted. So we built an install business here in the U.S. And that business has been great about taking the product from our factory and delivering it to our customer. But we do that at no margin, generally at a slight loss. So it's dilutive and somebody else can do that business a lot better than we can. That's somebody else's core product; that's context to us. So we're -- it was $100 million of revenue the last 2 years. It will probably be $50 million of revenue this year as other people perform those services and earn those revenues. And we'll be just shy $1.1 billion to $1.15 billion this year with 27% growth in our core product.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#5

Got you. And just help us understand about the growth beyond that as an -- I know you have a nice target of 25% to 30% growth through 2030 just on the core power generation business, so natural gas hydrogen fuel cells. So A, first, let's just talk about that before getting on to the other side.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#6

So we continue to see that business to grow. In the U.S., we're entering new states and finding new customers. And traditionally, we've been in kind of the 4 expensive electricity markets, right: California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and sometimes New Jersey is our core kind of U.S. markets. We've been able to become very competitive, especially in the industrial space in new states, in new opportunities. And it was a focused effort for us to get into new states within '21, and we've accomplished that. And I see a tremendous amount of opportunity. Our core value proposition is around predictability, sustainability and reliability. Those core value propositions, every day, given climate change, given the resiliency or lack of resiliency in the grid, given the sustainability efforts of everything going on are becoming more valuable. And we think we can sell and will sell in more states in the U.S. We have a wonderful franchise with our partners, SK ecoplant in South Korea. We expect that to continue to grow. At the fourth quarter last year, we signed a 450-megawatt take-or-pay contract with them over the next 3 years that we expect to grow. And that's just kind of the core growth rate we've had with them that we see continuing out. And last year, we built our first real effort around our international sales team in Europe, in the Middle East, in Asia and countries outside of South Korea and Japan, which we sold traditionally. We think all of that -- and it's -- our core product is getting a lot of traction there. So we think that we can continue to grow that business at historical rates. And we forecasted that out over the next 5, 10 years that we'll grow that business in the 25% to 30% range, which was our traditional guidance, which we've been able to do. Now on top of that, we think we see tremendous opportunities for our electrolyzer. What's great about what we've done here at Bloom is we've built out our capacity. We're building more capacity. We've built a manufacturing business. We've built a service business. We've built all the infrastructure that needs to go around that from a company standpoint in that same corporation we can leverage for our electrolyzer business. Now what's different about solid oxide versus some of the other technologies out there is our efficiencies. Depending upon how we run it, we're 15% to 40% more efficient than other technologies. And given that the cost of breaking water, 80% of that is going to be the input cost of the electricity, we think we have a tremendous advantage there. And we've begun to engage with customers around projects. Our goal, last year, we launched our product; this year is to find 1 to 2 to 3, 10-megawatt type large -- semi-large customer demonstrations we'll win this year, we will install next year. And we think that will give us in the business that we expect to grow in the hundreds of megawatts very quickly. What was interesting about the growth of our fuel cell business, that started in hundreds of kilowatts, moved into single megawatts and is now moving into tens of megawatts. Our electrolyzer business is starting at tens of megawatts and we expect it to move into hundreds of megawatts very quickly. We think when you add that, plus some work we're doing with our carbon capture business, our carbon capture effort, our machine is incredibly efficient at doing 2 things: creating electricity and creating CO2. We have almost a relatively pure CO2 stream coming out at 95% with just a little bit of drying that we need to do to clean that up. And that CO2 could be sequestered or utilized. So we see tremendous opportunity for that, not in 2022, but as you get into the middle part of this decade. And then in the back half of the decade, we've been working with several shipbuilders around adding fuel cells to marines. We started with Samsung Heavy around the LNG tankers, but we've also announced some passenger ship business that we're doing with Chantiers. We announced that last year and we think there are several other applications. So we gave a 10-year view just because we knew those additional applications will be coming on later in the decade. But we upped our guidance from 25% to 30% to 30% to 35%, and we extended it 5 more years. So we're out 10 years, which is somewhat unusual, but at the same time, we wanted to give a full view of all the value of Bloom that we see. If we do all that, we expect to, that moves us from a $1 billion company to somewhere in the $10 billion to $15 billion range over the course of the decade, which would be a tremendous accomplishment for the team. And we think would help the world a lot on its journey for decarbonization.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#7

Absolutely. And then maybe on the decarbonization stack, the electrolyzers, carbon capture in 2030. I think it's like $5 billion plus, right, I think revenues?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#8

Yes. Yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#9

So if you can just talk about like where are you expecting most of that revenues coming from. And obviously, I don't want to preview your analyst day here, but yes, so.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#10

Yes, we're seeing -- listen, we are focusing in the near term really around our demonstrations around the U.S. Just it's close to our engineering teams. It's not as though we're not talking to people in the Europe or the Middle East or other places in Asia. But we think that our large demonstrations will probably be done in the U.S. We see tremendous opportunity with our partners, ecoplant in South Korea and beyond, not only for our electrolyzer but for the hydrogen fuel cell as well. We think there'll be an opportunity there. Over the long term, listen, there's tremendous need in Europe for green hydrogen and pink hydrogen with the nuclear industry there, especially within France. We think it is a very logical place for us to go. Our sales team in Europe, which we have one now, is incredibly anxious to go help sell electrolyzers. And my inside baseball to them is sell what's in the binder, which is the fuel cell today, and you can sell the future on the electrolyzer going forward. But you can sell the fuel cell today for '22, '23, '24, and at the same time sell the electrolyzer for the future as well. So we think we'll have a global footprint on our electrolyzer business going forward. On carbon capture, it's interesting. And I talk a lot about it, which is great for a product that's not yet as commercialized as our fuel cell or our electrolyzer. And for me, really, the opportunity here is to find partners that can utilize the CO2. It's a multi-polygenerational formula that you got to go solve, right? Probably you got to go -- somebody's got to own the electricity, somebody's got to own the CO2. There's an opportunity for blue hydrogen for that. Put that whole project together and we think that you can be in the neighborhood of creating 0 carbon baseload electricity in the mid-single digits on $0.05, $0.06 a kilowatt-hour in the U.S. based on that. And we think that's incredibly competitive. We just need partners to help us pull that all together. We've got the technology that will do it, but it's just one piece of the overall puzzle.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#11

And can you just talk about that $0.50 to -- $0.05 to $0.06 kilowatt-hour target? What's the time line on that for you?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#12

It's so early days. I mean, that is not a cost-down target, right? We aspire to be $0.005 to $0.01 down every year on our cost of electricity just on our base fuel cell project. So today, we're kind of still selling around that $0.09 a kilowatt-hour that we've been to for the last year or so. I would say that, on average, is where we sell. Now there are certain areas in the world that we can sell above that and there are certain areas of the world we need to sell below that to be competitive. But if you take that $0.09 and just say that's your starting point, and that's a fully delivered -- that includes the gas, that includes everything, the install, the service, everything you need to do it. If you can get -- even with the 45Q credits that exist today at $50 a ton, even before you go to a Build Back Better at $85, you can -- if you do just pure utilization and there's very little cleanup that you need to do at 95%, as in none, and you sequester that for the credit, that is a reduction in the cost of that electricity. You could also -- which is $0.02 to $0.03 depending upon what the incentive is. You also have the opportunity because you're doing carbon capture with that to take off. Just the natural process that we use releases a small stream of hydrogen; we recycle it back today through the machine to give ourselves higher efficiencies. You could stream that off and go sell that hydrogen, $2, $3, $4 a kilogram, that could also offset the cost of electricity. So I'm incredibly excited about it, but it is something that we're going to need people a lot smarter than we are around sequestration and around project financing. It's a very different project than our core product. And we’ve put it in -- I think I said on the earnings call that in that decarbonization stack bar, 80-plus percent of that is the electrolyzer. It's even probably greater than that when you go through it. Now if we figure out how to crack the code, I don't think that makes the electrolyzer any smaller. I think that makes that middle bar even greater.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#13

Great. No, it's interesting. Like we just heard BP on the other room and they were talking about how Europe and other regions are moving much faster on hydrogen and electrolyzers and definitely more opportunity on that and even beyond...

Gregory Cameron

executive
#14

Hydrogen will take a period of time to commercialize, right? And incentives at a country level are important to accelerate that commercialization of it. I will tell you as well the current geopolitical environment will also create incentives to build more energy security. I don't think it's something that happens overnight. I think it's something that takes a long -- it will take years and for us to go figure out. So in the meantime, what the Bloom value prop is, what are you going to do between now and then, right? All for solar, all for wind, all for hydrogen in the long term, but what's the bridge between here and there? And that's where I think technology is just our basic core fuel cell, which has higher efficiencies on a marginal emissions rate, is important. And also remember, you can blend your input gas into our fuel cell, and we don't have to turn a screwdriver. So yes, if today you're taking 100% natural gas out of the pipeline and putting it through your machine, if tomorrow, there's a 10% blend that's going through there, which is the work we're doing with SoCalGas down at Caltech, there -- we're actually using an electrolyzer for them, putting it into the pipeline at 10%. They already own our fuel cells. There's nothing we need to do with those fuel cells. You can take responsibly sourced natural gas, you can take a biogas, you could take hydrogen, you could take it in 100% or you can take it mixtures thereof, up to 50% blend between hydrogen and natural gas. It's -- we don't have to turn the screwdriver. We can make those adjustments through our software. And we think that's going to be key over the next several years to a decade. While all these other technologies come on, we think we have a product that works today. So when I meet with a customer and have these discussions and they say, well, you're not zero-carbon today, you're not zero emissions. I need to get to 0. I -- great. I understand that. But if your option is to do nothing, then how are you helping? I can help today by lowering your emissions with my core product. And then over time, if other opportunities become commercially viable and available, you can use my machine. And if at some point in the near or distant future, wherever that is, and hydrogen is commercially available at your site, we can easily switch our natural gas fuel cells out for hydrogen fuel cells and make that transition -- help you make that transition. And that's our core cell today to most customers, especially in the U.S. We can help you decarbonize, reduce today. And over time, we will be that partner that will help you completely decarbonize.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#15

That's an interesting thing is when you talked about having this flexibility on natural gas and hydrogen. But maybe one question on that. Do you think hydrogen would be replacing natural gas in the pipes or elsewhere? Like -- I'm just like, because you're developing a hydrogen fuel cell, would you ever need that? Would you...

Gregory Cameron

executive
#16

There will be -- clearly, there will be an opportunity to do a blend on some of the existing pipes. I'm not a – listen, I'm a liberal arts econ major. So when I start getting into percentages of hydrogen going through a gas pipeline, there's people in this crowd that can answer that with a lot more specificity than I could. But I know at 5% to 10%, it works, right? And then you get into dedicated hydrogen pipelines, which I think is where our future is going. Great. when those become available, we can utilize those. Does it replace natural gas? While I have this job, while I'm -- I don't see it replacing, right? There's a huge benefit we've -- the world has received in the near term on moving from coal and oil to natural gas, right? If we can figure out a sustainable way in which to sequester the carbon from the natural gas and we could do it in a way that does not combust, right? One of the benefits that you have with the Bloom machine versus trying to get it off of a back of a combined cycle gas turbine is we're not combusting. So I have -- depending upon how you measure it, I have like 1/100th of the exhaust coming out. So I'm not using a chemical process in which to reduce -- to identify the CO2 and pick it out. It's the same amount of CO2 that's coming out from the conversion of the natural gas to electricity, whether it's combustion or through the reaction in the fuel cell. I just don't have the other stuff coming through. So I use just a drying -- just good old-fashioned condensing technology, and I can get it to 95% CO2. We should be able to utilize that to begin with, right? I love going to talk to customers that use CO2 in their process. And there is a way in which we can -- we believe, with partners, take that natural gas -- take that CO2 that's coming from the fuel cell and have it go back into their manufacturing process, offsetting the need for them to buy CO2. And as opposed to sequester it, utilize it in their manufacturing process. Those are real commercial opportunities that we have. Now those won't be at the hundreds of megawatts of scale, which was what I was talking about before. I think for large 45Q type projects, you're -- I mean, you’re minimum today at 50 megawatts to 100 megawatts depending upon it. In the future, you need to be at that utility scale for it all to make sense. But we can do it at 2, 3, 4 megawatts on a customer site as well and allow them to utilize that CO2 in their manufacturing process.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#17

Right. Now I think that -- we have a panel with you later this afternoon, so that will be an interesting discussion where some of the other peers on the panel would be more -- or more knowledgeable on sequestration or even use of carbon core, oil and gas industry. So I look forward to that. So actually, just on margins, I know we're talking about cost reductions. I think you talked about 10%, 15% cost reduction every year beyond '22 on the fuel cell stack. The -- how should we think about those margins on the fuel cells and then also these electrolyzers?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#18

Yes. Over the near term, right, 99% of what we do will still be the natural gas fuel cell. So if you look at our margins, right, we aspire for a 40% product margin upfront. This is not a razor-razor blade business. We want to sell our machine at a healthy profit. We were in the mid-30s last year. We were -- the one place we did not hit was our cost reduction targets. Now we were in a bit of a global supply chain issue and taking cost out of the machine was difficult. We did get out 2% to 4%, depending upon how you measure it, and that was not the 15% that we asked the team for. So that did have an impact on our margins last year. You also have 10% of our revenue that's traditionally gone through install. That will go in half this year. And as we continue to grow, that gets smaller and smaller. So it goes from 10% to 4% next year and -- from '22 and get smaller as a percentage of total revenue. And hopefully, the loss or near breakeven goes away, and you mix up benefit on removing that as dilution. And then on service, listen, we were within $900,000 of breaking even on service last year. This was a P&L on a much smaller installed base; lost $100 million 5 years ago. And why was that? It was a new product that we were introducing. And like all new products, it was not behaving and performing the way in which we had hoped it would. So we were replacing our power modules sooner because we still wanted -- we still had to meet our commitments to our customers sooner than we had planned, and that came through as a negative P&L in our service business. As we've improved our life of our stack and we're now over 5 years in the 6 years of observable life, we think we can continue to extend that. And at the same time, we've brought the cost out. A power module on a revenue basis or on a FRU basis was $6,000 a kilowatt pre-IPO; it was $2,400 a kilowatt last year. We think we can get that over a period of time, this year, sub-$2000; in the not-too-distant future get that at sub-$1,500; and then sub-$1,000. As we've taken the cost of that power module down and what replacements we're doing are less often and at less of a cost, we've been able to get that business profitable. So in the near term, we were 22% gross margins last year on how we measure them, which is ex-stock-based compensation. We've targeted 24% this year so we expect a 200 basis point improvement. And over the long term, in our fuel cell business, we expect to get to a 30% margin by 2025. Now what I haven't done, and we'll spend some time at our Analyst Day at the end of May talking about is, okay, then what happens? From 2025 and beyond, all of those tailwinds that we have that are improving our margins don't go away. They continue to get better. So what does that look like? And then, Greg, layer on your electrolyzer business, your marine business, all those other things and tell us what the mix all looks like. And I'll save that for the end of May.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#19

That was my next question on electrolyzer margins, but...

Gregory Cameron

executive
#20

Yes. Listen, in the near term, and I've spent the weekend on a few calls on electrolyzers. In the near term, everybody is trying to figure out on how to get the demonstrations done in a way that don't -- that doesn't cost them money. And that's the most immediate thing, right? Whether it's the OEM around the electrolyzer or the project leader or the balance of plant sellers, everybody is trying to get a proof of concept at a scale that makes sense. And then once we've done that, we'll figure out how to make -- how we all expect this to be a profitable business going forward. Our expectation is the electrolyzer business looks a lot like the fuel cell business from a margin standpoint, both upfront and on service, but it's going to be -- we're going to need to get into those to figure that out.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#21

And from a technology [ winners ] point of view, do you expect something similar? Because on fuel cells, you are probably the -- largest share of utility-scale fuel cells is probably just you, right? So how do you see electrolyzers shape up?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#22

Listen, I think there's some technologies that exist today, and that are out selling. I think there will be a process here. In the near term, I will tell you, I've had this discussion with people, there's such a need, we're going to be a little bit -- the world may be a little bit technology agnostic as we just buy some of these in and get them online. We think over time, our efficiencies are going to be better. When you look at converting kilowatts to kilograms, which we think is the key metric, it's going to be less around what the capital cost is upfront. It's going to be more around the efficiencies. Listen, the great thing about solid oxide technology, right, is it operates at a high heat, high efficiency. Now if we can't get heat from someplace else and we have to use our own heat, we're 15% more efficient than on average the other technologies. Now if we can -- it takes energy to break water, right? We can use heat where other low heat solutions can't. So if we can find a source of excess waste heat coming off. So think nuclear, think solar concentrators, think industrial processes, we think we can get to 40% more efficient. And if that's 80% of the cost, we think we have a winning technology in this space. And based on the early feedback from the customers that we're working with, potential customers we're working with, we think that's resonating.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#23

Yes. No, absolutely. I mean we were chatting with a nuclear SMR company over the weekend and yes, there is a lot of waste heat in the [ nuclear ] process.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#24

Yes. So we've got an experiment -- we've got a demonstration going on with Idaho National Labs and it's up and running, and we expect to be able to print that -- we expect them to be able -- it's their project -- we expect them to be able to print what efficiencies they saw and conversions that they saw for hydrogen. And we expect, so far based on the data we're reading, it's right in line with what we would have expected.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#25

Got you. So actually, just something on the electrolyzers pricing. So you said your fuel cell is $2,400 per kilowatt. You use the same in the reverse direction, it becomes an electrolyzer. It costs around $1,000 per kilowatt roughly, I guess?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#26

You take a few things out of it, and $900, yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#27

Okay. Got you. And -- so then you talked about like, I think, $700 per kilowatt, maybe at the last Analyst Day, I'm recollecting. Or just assuming a 10% to 15% cost reduction on that, right?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#28

Yes. Yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#29

So some few years down the line. And we're hearing something similar estimates from the others in the industry. So do you expect some -- I know you've talked about like we need a lot of electrolyzers -- but do you expect some pricing war between technologies here?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#30

Listen, I think at the end of the day, right, it's going to be what does your machine cost? What does it cost your machine? What does it cost to run your machine, just service, other things? How long does your stack last, all those things? So what's your initial cost, what's your service cost. And then when it comes to looking at the energy cost in, what does that look like and what efficiencies can you do that at? When you take that hydrogen off the machine, we're at different levels of pressure and how do we increase ours where another machine may not need to do that. It's all going to be on what the delivered cost of hydrogen is at the end of the day. And we think, over the long term or near term, when people actually do the math, efficiencies are going to matter. And we think that we've got an incredibly attractive product and we just need to go out and prove it by winning some big deals and show people that not only do we have the confidence, but the 3 people sitting on the stage -- at that point when we make an announcement, believe the same thing. And then will there be -- I think in the near term, it's going to be a lot around how -- who can get their technologies out, how does it perform? How reliable is it, how efficient is it? And over time, like any new market, new players will continually come in and the machines that have the best efficiencies and best performances will win. And we are incredibly excited to have that. We think we are -- we've built a company here at scale. From a fuel cell business, right, compared to others in our space, we're the youngest. And when you look at what we've been able to do with stationary power, and I think stationary power looks a lot more like the -- creating a green hydrogen plant than maybe other forms of transportation or other things. So we think not only does our technology move nicely across, we think the operating business that we've created for our associates that have 1,600 people that have been building these fuel cells, yes, it's the same core stack. And then when we go to run it and monitor it, it looks a lot like we do today. And we think that is a business that is a natural adjacency for us based on our core technologies.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#31

All right. No, definitely looking forward to more on that at the Analyst Day.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#32

Yes. I mean the guy we hired, Rick Beuttel from Air Products, has been an incredible -- for a bunch of folks that are in the space, Rick has probably sold more hydrogen in the market than anyone. And he came to us and left his prior company because he saw the value of the Bloom machine. It was an incredibly exciting interview I got to do with him a few months ago. Because it was supposed to last 20, 30 minutes, just a quick check-in, and we sat there for an hour, just brainstorming parts in the market. And he brought an incredible amount of industry knowledge to it, right? We have this technology, but how do you commercialize that technology. Rick has been phenomenal at that.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#33

Yes. No, absolutely. We should bring him over here next time.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#34

Yes, we should. I'll bring him out more often.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#35

Definitely. I know we're running out of time. So maybe just one last one from me and probably is a little bit more topical, we're getting some incoming calls on this, is the impact of higher natural gas prices in the short term on that $0.09 per kilowatt you talked about. How is that shaping up?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#36

So listen, in that $0.09, there's an assumption at a cost of natural gas that's lower. So in that it could be -- as you move up in cost, it's probably $0.03 of that. So if you think about it from an inflationary standpoint, what's that cost up. In the near term, when people go to do the math, the $0.09 may go up $0.005 or $0.01 as they think about it. But what we really caution folks on is you got to do the whole math. First of all, that we operate at a lifetime efficiencies in the mid-50s, right, 54%, 55%. So if something is costing more, you want to go with the technology that's going to have the higher efficiencies for it. And then when you compare me, and which you do mostly in the U.S., around grid costs, we've already seen an uptick significantly in the cost forecast for resiliency getting added to the grid. That same natural gas prices has to go through there at lower efficiencies. So while we will look at it and someone will say, well, this math is different than I thought; true, take that, but then do the other side of it, that you're comparing against. It's going to be a greater impact on that side of the ledger than ours, which actually improves our competitive advantage if we can just complete the conversation.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#37

Right. So in terms of your customers, are they -- what are they worried or what they're excited about these days?

Gregory Cameron

executive
#38

Listen, resiliency and time to power are the two main things. I would have said 3, 4 years ago, this business was selling at the cost of electricity, we producing it cheaper than they could buy it from the grid, and that's why we were in the expensive places. Now it's into -- the gas pipeline is incredibly more resilient. And the other big -- so companies want to continue to run. So when we go in and say, hey, here, buy the Bloom server for sustainability, resiliency and predictability. The other big thing is they can't get the power they need to grow. So the time to power, our ability to put 10 megawatts in their back parking lot in 6 months is a hell of a lot quicker than getting a substation built for 10 megawatts that may take -- promised at 12 to 18 months, and we'll see when it actually delivers. So we work well with customers that say, especially in things like in the chip space, right, the suppliers in the chip space, that they are growing exponentially. Their need for power is increasing. That's what they're worried about. As long as they can source the gas and they take the gas risk, I don't, they could do it. The cost trade-off between not necessarily the $0.005 more it may cost them, but the opportunity cost loss if they can't produce. That's the math they're doing. And that is becoming more and more where we're engaging with customers and seeing it. And I like those opportunities because they're in the 10s and 20s, 30s of megawatts, which is the size and scale we're going to need to continue to scale and grow to meet our growth trajectories. So we think it's -- all in all, it's a tailwind to us.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#39

All right. And I think we're running out of time here, but thanks a lot, Greg. And we'll definitely have a lot of questions here, so I hope to get most of that answered at the Analyst Day in May.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#40

Great. We're looking forward to it.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#41

Yes. Look forward to catching up again.

Gregory Cameron

executive
#42

Perfect. Thank you for the time.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#43

Thanks, everyone.

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