Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Blue Bird's Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Earnings. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Mark Benfield, Blue Bird's Head of Investor Relations. Mark, please go ahead.

Thank you, and welcome to Blue Bird's Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. The audio for our call is webcast live on blue-bird.com under the Investor Relations tab. You can access the supporting slides on our website by clicking on the Presentations box on the IR landing page. Our comments today include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted on the following two slides and in our filings with the SEC. Blue Bird disclaims any obligation to update the information in this call. This afternoon, you will hear from Blue Bird's President and CEO, John Wyskiel; and CFO, Razvan Radulescu, and we'll take some questions. Let's get started. John?

Thanks, Mark. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. It's an exciting day today as we are going to share our strong fiscal 2026 third quarter financial results and the continued significant progress we've made with our long-term strategy, including a very special announcement we made late this afternoon. Results for Q3 were once again very strong, and the Blue Bird team delivered outstanding sales and adjusted EBITDA, beating guidance for the 15th consecutive quarter. Razvan will take you through the details of our financial results shortly, but let's turn to Slide 6, where I will talk to some of the key takeaways for the quarter. First, Blue Bird beat guidance on all metrics for the quarter. Again, we continue to manage the volatility associated with the administration's policy on tariffs well. Backlog for the quarter ended at 4,900 units, inclusive of Micro Bird and just under 3,600 units for Type C and D. Operationally, metrics are pointing in the right direction, and the team has been able to execute on a day-to-day basis while simultaneously working on our long-term strategy. In terms of pricing, we remain extremely disciplined. Bus prices remained higher than the previous year and in the previous quarter. As I continue to communicate, this process is just how we manage the business. In the Alt-Power segment, our dominance continues. Our EV backlog is just under 800 units, and we have a strong EV order book into 2027. Alt-Power is a segment we created over 15 years ago. We were pioneers in EV. Our propane powertrains have the lowest total cost of operation, and our gas variant continues to be a market leader. With increased diesel prices at the pump, we believe Alt-Power is a great long-term play, and we continue to maintain our lead position. And finally, we continue to manage the impact of the administration's executive orders and tariff volatility. We are fortunate to be well positioned to navigate this situation to a margin-neutral outcome. As I've said on every earnings call, it is our objective to position this business to be a strong long-term investment. Let's turn the page and take a closer look at the financial and key business highlights for the quarter on Slide 7. We sold 3,525 buses in Q3 and recorded revenue of $517 million, $119 million above last year. On the EV side, we sold over 350 electric vehicles, 10% of unit volume, and our long-term outlook for EVs remains optimistic. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $71 million, $13 million stronger than last year, and adjusted free cash flow came in at $28 million. Razvan will talk more about this and our outlook later in this call. Turning to the right side of the page, I'll touch on a few points. As discussed earlier, our backlog finished at a solid 4,900 units combined. As you know, backlog is a function of orders and production. Orders for the industry were up 7% on a trailing 12-month basis and Blue Bird's order intake was up 9% for the same period. We feel good about our position in the school bus market. I continue to reiterate that the overall market fundamentals are still strong. The fleet is aging. We are coming into a heavy replacement cycle, and there's been industry supply issues in the last few years, leaving pent-up demand. The midterm horizon continues to look very good for school bus volumes. Year-over-year selling prices for buses was up almost $10,000. But of course, this also includes increased tariff recovery as part of our margin-neutral tariff strategy. With tariffs excluded, pricing was still up year-over-year, and parts sales totaled $25.5 million for the quarter. Alt-powered Blue Bird buses represented a strong 54% unit sales mix for the quarter. Our powertrain strategy is a differentiator in the market and allows us to maintain stronger margins. For the quarter, we had 355 EVs booked and 776 EVs in our order backlog pushing into 2027. Again, we remain optimistic on EVs in the school bus sector. EVs are a perfect fit for school buses when you look at the duty cycle, available charging intervals, range and the proven health benefits for our children. Rounds two and three of the EPA Clean School Bus program remained intact with funds flowing to our end customers. And the EPA has invited comments for 2026 funding, solidifying rounds four and five for the program, consistent with what we have been communicating. We should understand very soon how and when the EPA will administer these funds. Overall, when we look at state funding and fleet EV mandates, we believe this market will remain relevant. In the quarter, we closed on the Micro Bird transaction. This transaction brings us consolidated revenue with the Type A school bus and future growth in the commercial shuttle bus segment. It also brings us technology with the EcoTuned integrated EV platform. This transaction represents our strategic commitment to growth outside of the school bus segment and putting the balance sheet to work. But finally, I have another exciting item to report. We made a very big move in the chassis market. Let's turn to Slide 8, where I will talk about the exciting news we released earlier today, our expanded collaboration into the Class 5-6 chassis market with Ford Motor Company and our asset purchase of Detroit Chassis LLC's Detroit Assembly plant. Under the agreement, Blue Bird will assume design, manufacturing and sales responsibility for the next-generation F-53/F-59 commercial strip chassis. Additionally, Ford will supply to us its medium-duty next-generation Ford powertrain as part of this agreement. Finally, Ford and Blue Bird intend to collaborate on the seamless customer transfer of fleet, RV and Specialty Body manufacturers. This collaboration with Ford will run through the end of 2033 with the extension opportunity into 2036. As part of this significant market entry, Blue Bird will also acquire Detroit Assembly plant assets of Detroit Chassis LLC, the current contract assembler for the F-53/F-59 chassis. Detroit Chassis brings workforce, leadership, equipment, while Blue Bird brings the overall design and business enterprise expertise to support this overall arrangement. The purchase is anticipated to close in calendar Q1 2027, shortly after the current chassis ends production, and production of our new chassis is expected to start in calendar Q1 2028. For Blue Bird, this arrangement and transaction focuses on the strategic value proposition of growth, technology and collaboration. First, it expands Blue Bird's total addressable market by $1.4 billion in a largely two-player market in both commercial delivery and RV segments. Also, the Ford-powered gas chassis is a competitive and dominant offering in this space. The collaboration will propel our market position in the strip chassis segment. Second, this new chassis design will have considerable technical read across into our new bus design. We also see that this chassis design will be scalable and facilitate expansion into other product offerings. This technical approach will support even further growth down the road. Lastly, a collaborative approach with Ford will support an orderly transition with customers, enabling ease of entry into the market and mitigating risk. Overall, this is a very exciting announcement and is an important part of our strategy for the company. And as I said earlier, it brings tremendous opportunity for growth, technology and collaboration. It positions us to be a growing player in the Specialty Vehicle market. It has certainly been another busy quarter with strong results and a very exciting announcement. So, I'd now like to hand it over to Razvan to walk through our fiscal '26 third quarter financial results as well as our full year updated guidance in more detail. Razvan?

Thanks, John, and good afternoon. It's my pleasure to share with you the financial highlights from Blue Bird's fiscal 2026 third quarter and year-to-date record results. The quarter end is based on a close date of June 27, 2026, whereas the prior year was based on a close date of June 28, 2025. We will file the 10-Q today, August 5, after market closing. Our 10-Q includes additional material and disclosures regarding our business and financial performance. We encourage you to read the 10-Q and the important disclosures that it contains. The appendix attached to today's presentation includes reconciliations of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP measures mentioned on this call as well as other important disclaimers. Slide 10 is a summary of the fiscal '26 third quarter and year-to-date record financial results. Please note that fiscal '26 Q3 is the first quarter in which we are consolidating the Micro Bird results, following our acquisition of the remaining 50% of the joint venture, which transaction closed on April 1, 2026. It was a strong operating quarter for our company, a great continuation after the first half of the fiscal year, and we beat our consolidated guidance provided in the last earnings call on all metrics. In fact, we delivered the best Q3 profit ever for Blue Bird with $71 million in adjusted EBITDA. The team pushed hard and continued doing a fantastic job and generated 3,525 unit sales volume, which includes 1,235 Micro Bird units. The Blue Bird unit sales were 7% below prior year level, driven by a relatively large number of GSA and fleet units in finished goods. As a result, Q3 consolidated net revenue of $517 million was only $119 million higher than prior year, which Micro Bird consolidation contributed approximately $123 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a Q3 record $71 million, $13 million higher than prior year, and it includes the consolidation effect of Micro Bird of $8 million. The adjusted free cash flow was a solid Q3 of $28 million and $24 million lower than the prior year, driven by a seasonal increase in working capital and finished goods inventory for GSA and fleet. Our liquidity position at the end of this quarter was strong at $259 million, and this is after the Micro Bird acquisition and paying down all the debt at close. The year-to-date results, including the consolidated Q3 for Micro Bird are equally impressive, while units sold of 7,808 buses were above prior year by 916 units. The revenue grew 12% to $1.2 billion with record adjusted EBITDA of $172 million or $19 million above prior year. Free cash flow was also very strong at $100 million or $7 million above prior year's level. Moving on to Slide 11. Our backlog continues to be solid at approximately 4,900 units, including approximately 1,300 Micro Bird units and a total of approximately 800 EVs. Many of the EVs are already scheduled to be built and delivered in fiscal year '27. Let's break now the Q3 revenue of $517 million into three components. First, the Blue Bird bus net revenue was $369 million, down 1% versus prior year due to higher finished goods inventory for GSA fleet. However, our average Blue Bird bus revenue per unit increased by $10,000. Blue Bird EV sales in Q3 were 300 units or 29 units higher than last year. Second, parts revenue for the quarter was almost flat at a strong $25 million. Third, this quarter, we are consolidating Micro Bird revenue for the first time, and they contributed $123 million to our results with 55 EV units sold. Gross margin for the quarter was a strong 20% or 160 basis points lower than last year due to Micro Bird consolidation, which drove 180 basis points reduction. Adjusted EBITDA of $71 million was higher compared with prior year by $13 million, of which the Micro Bird consolidation impact was $8 million. Adjusted EBITDA in percentage was mathematically compressed year-over-year due to the consolidation of 100% of the Micro Bird revenue in Q3, while adding only 50% incremental adjusted EBITDA after the joint venture acquisition. Excluding the Micro Bird consolidation effect, the percentage actually went up from 14.7% to a record Q3 of 16.1%. Iin fiscal '26 Q3 adjusted net income was a record Q3 at $45 million or $6 million higher than last year, with half of the delta coming from the Micro Bird consolidation. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.28 was up $0.09 versus the prior year. Slide 12 shows the walk from fiscal '25 Q3 adjusted EBITDA, the fiscal '26 Q3 results before and after the Micro Bird consolidation. Starting on the left at $58.5 million, the impact of the bulk segment gross profit in total was $0.7 million, split between volume and pricing effects, net of material cost increases of $6.2 million and year-over-year healthcare cost increases, lower overhead absorption and higher freight and costs totaling negative $5.5 million. The bulk segment gross profit was almost flat as well as our fixed cost and other income, other expenses. However, the Micro Bird results improved year-over-year, shown here in the previous 50% joint venture format. The above-mentioned developments drive our pre-consolidation record fiscal '26 Q3 adjusted EBITDA results of $63.6 million or 16.1%. The Micro Bird 50% joint venture consolidation added an additional $7.8 million for a total reported adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million or 13.8%. Moving on to Slide 13. We ended the quarter with $117 million in cash and reduced our debt by $5 million over the last year. This is after completing the Micro Bird acquisition during this quarter and paying down all the debt at close. Despite this, our liquidity remains strong at $259 million at the end of fiscal '26 Q3. The operating cash flow was solid for Q3 at $31 million, driven by great operational execution and margins, partially offset by increases in working capital and finished goods inventory for GSA and fleet. On Slide 14, we want to share with you our updated fiscal '26 forecast. Looking at our record Q3 results, we have beaten again our guidance this past quarter, so we had a very strong fiscal year-to-date. We continue to forecast a strong Q4 at approximately 14% adjusted EBITDA margins despite a small reduction in units sold versus the previous forecast. We are guiding total year revenue to the same midpoint and with a range of $1.74 billion to $1.76 billion. And given our beat in Q3, we are raising our guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $247 million or approximately 14% with a range of $245 million to $250. Moving to Slide 15. In summary, we are forecasting an improvement year-over-year to a new record with revenue up to approximately $1.75 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $245 million to $250 million or 14% and adjusted free cash flow of $125 million to $135 million, in line with our typical target of approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA. And after accounting for the extraordinary CapEx of up to $5 million as our 50% fiscal '26 portion of the new plant investment funded by a reconfirmed DOE MESC grant, which is currently proceeding with the permitting phase. Moving on to Slide 16. We wanted to remind you of our medium- and long-term outlook after the Micro Bird acquisition. Medium-term outlook was a $275 million adjusted EBITDA or 13.5%. Our long-term target was to generate EBITDA of $325 million to $375-plus million or 14% to 15% plus. Moving on to Slide 17. As John mentioned before, we announced earlier today that we have expanded our collaboration with Ford into the commercial strip chassis gas-powered segment. Starting in 2028, the next generation of the F-53/F-59 chassis will be designed, manufactured and commercialized by Blue Bird with Ford powertrain. This expands our addressable market into the core of the last-mile delivery segment as well as Class A RV segment. It represents an investment in 2027 of approximately $90 million for Blue Bird, of which $50 million is CapEx. The manufacturing will begin in early 2028 in the current Detroit assembly plant of Detroit Chassis LLC, which Blue Bird will acquire in 2027 in an asset deal after the end of production of the existing F-53/F-59 products. This new segment is expected to grow for us to a level of approximately 10,000 units in 2030 and generate longer-term adjusted EBITDA of $100 million plus or 14% to 15%. This collaboration replaces in the first step our previous planned entry into this segment with a 10x higher potential. We are very excited about this opportunity as a further step on our profitable growth strategy. Moving on to Slide 18, you can see our updated medium- and long-term outlook post Fort collaboration expansion. Starting with the short-term outlook, the pro forma results for 2026 and '27, including a full year of Micro Bird consolidation, indicate approximately $2 billion in revenue and approximately $260 million of adjusted EBITDA or 13%. This is before the noncapitalized portion of the Blue Bird chassis investment from the expanded collaboration as well as exciting new product investments currently in the early stages of planning. We will provide full year and quarterly guidance for fiscal '27 in the next earnings call. In terms of capital allocation, we intend to refinance and expand our credit facility by the end of calendar year 2026 and maintain a leverage ratio under 2x adjusted EBITDA. And we continue to be opportunistic in share buybacks with approximately $90 million remaining on the existing program. Moving to the right in time, what used to be our low-end long-term target of $2.3 billion in revenue moved now closer into midterm with $300-plus million in adjusted EBITDA. The long-term outlook is raised now to approximately $3 billion in revenue and $400 million to $500 million plus in adjusted EBITDA or 14.5% to 15% plus. Now this is what we call profitable growth. We continue to be incredibly excited about Blue Bird's future. And now I will turn it back over to John.

Thank you, Razvan. Let's move on to Slide 20. I want to take this opportunity to remind everyone of our long-term strategy, which consists of four elements and positions the company for the future. First, as an almost 100-year-old company, business continuity and long-term stability is a core element. This includes investing and updating our manufacturing facilities and products. A great example is our new assembly plant, which is planned to start production in late calendar year 2028 and our commitment to a highly competitive new bus design. Infrastructure and competitive products are an essential part of our plan. The next element is the theme that has been consistent in the last few years, profitable growth. Of course, the school bus market is projected to grow over the next few years, and our new plant will allow us to capitalize on that. But for Blue Bird, it also means expanding our total addressable market by entering new adjacencies. The Blue Bird commercial strip chassis we announced today, and the Micro Bird Buy America shuttle bus are great examples. Margin expansion is the next element. This area focuses on advancing competitiveness and cost reduction. For Blue Bird, this means continuing our Industry 3.0 automation initiative. But as well, the new plant will allow for further factory of the future opportunities, including Industry 4.0 initiatives. And the last area is putting the balance sheet to work. The Micro Bird acquisition and the Detroit Chassis asset purchase are great examples of this and support our safe and accretive approach in this area. And even after these transactions, Blue Bird continues to have a pristine balance sheet, strong liquidity and solid cash flows. This will allow us to continue to be strategically opportunistic. Overall, we have a balanced strategy that positions the company for the future and delivers value to our shareholders. Let's turn to Slide 21. The fundamentals for the school bus segment remains strong, as shown on the left side of the page. We are moving into the replacement cycle for the high-volume period between 2017 and 2019. We know there is pent-up demand remaining from the COVID period, and there are still over 250,000 buses over 10 years old. And funding remains stable for this market. All of this contributes to a strong ACT outlook of approximately 6% CAGR over the next several years. But with the addition of Micro Bird earlier this year, we now get the consolidation benefit of Type A school bus and the growth associated with entering the Buy America commercial shuttle bus market, as shown on the right side of the page. But adding today's big announcement for the commercial strip chassis market, these combined moves increase our total addressable market by 150% on units and over 85% on dollars from just 1 year ago. These transactions represent our commitment to our strategy as we reshape Blue Bird from a pioneer in the school bus industry to a growing player in the Specialty Vehicle market. I'll wrap it up on Slide 22. This great company and iconic brand is almost 100 years old. It has stood the test of time and is positioned for the future. We delivered outstanding results again in the third quarter of 2026. We continue to demonstrate credibility by delivering on our targets. We are excited about the Micro Bird acquisition made earlier this year and extremely excited about the Ford collaboration in Detroit Chassis LLC asset acquisition announced today. These are significant components of our long-term strategy and will position us to be a growing player in the Specialty Vehicle market. And looking ahead, our strategy, discipline and demonstrated execution will set this company up for the future and deliver value to our shareholders. As always, I want to thank our employees, our dealer network, our supply partners and of course, our investors. All are critical for our success. I remain excited about Blue Bird, and we continue to deliver great results and make significant progress in our longer-term strategy. This company is a great American story with such a rich history and an exciting future ahead. Thank you. So that concludes our formal presentation for today, and I'd like to now hand it back to our moderator for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum.

So, I would love to start with the Ford agreement. It certainly makes a lot of sense what you're doing. But I just want to make sure I understand it. So, did you say that this kind of becomes your primary path forward? Or should we view this in addition to the fact that you've got excess chassis capacity in Ford Valley and that you're kind of going on two paths?

Eric, it's John Wyskiel. Yes, for sure, it's our primary path. There's a lot of engineering work here to get through. And this one, we look at this as a real solid agreement as we get to break into a market and catapult into it with cooperation with Ford. So, we're excited.

Got it. And then in terms of that excess chassis capacity that you have, is there something that you're, and maybe this is TBD, but that you're thinking about that, that can be utilized for because I know that, that has long been viewed as kind of an unrealized asset that could be put to work.

Yes, we'll see down the road. I mean, right now, there's no immediate need with what we've done with Detroit Chassis, of course, purchasing their assets. Down the road, I mean, there's some geography that could come into play. But again, it's not the immediate play we'll make.

Okay. Just on a follow-up, so it starts in fiscal '28. And I know that you talked about in fiscal '30 that you're thinking 10,000 units, a little under half the addressable market. Should we think about that as a bit of a ramp from the start to that 10,000? Or I guess you just talked about thinking you may hit the ground running.

So, Eric, this is Razvan. So, the SOP is in the middle of is call '28, thereabout. So, 2028 is a partial year of the ramp-up. And then 2029, we also consider it as a ramp-up year. But as you know us, we are conservative. So, to the extent that we can accelerate the path to 10,000, we will. But at this point, we want to show a ramp to the 10,000 level, and there is upside potential longer term above this 10,000 for sure.

Yes. And just another comment, Eric. I think you know this is largely a two-player market. So, we view that favorably, obviously, coming into the space. And the F-53/F-59 was hugely successful in this marketplace. So, us having the opportunity to take it over, we think, is a great opportunity.

The next question comes from the line of Michael Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

Congratulations. To follow up on those last question or two there about the Ford's strict chassis production. Over the last 10 years, they've actually averaged over 15,000 a year. And you're only saying 12,000 that maybe would be a full production in your slide here. I guess, is that just being conservative? Or have you heard of any fleet that switched over, for example, Amazon going to the EV that they work on with Rivian or other folks just not using as many as they did? Or is this just, we'll see how it goes, but 12,000 is at least a large step of the way to full production.

Mark, this is Razvan. Yes, we are conservative. So, there is room for higher numbers. But at this point, we want to have a conservative business case also for entering into the market, and we have to execute on it, grow it. And as you know, also, there is some cyclicality into this market when you look at the RV business that can have its ups and downs. And then also based on the large fleet acquisitions on the last mile delivery, you can also have some cyclicality. So, look at this as our base case with upside potential from here.

Okay. Great. You also mentioned that they'll be ramping their production in the first part, very early 2027, it sounds like. Over the last bunch of quarters, they did a ton of these vehicles. The ramp up like 5x what they were making at the trough of the cycle. But once the deal is completed, I'm guessing that between now and then they're going to build a ton more of these and they can sell off them during the time when they stop making them and you're starting to ramp up, if I'm wrong, but correct me there. But I guess once they stop producing them, who will be in charge of selling that inventory down through the 2028, 2029 ramp-up of the new model? And are you as part of the purchase price or part of the purchase buying all that inventory? Or is that going to be all still held by Ford until they're down to zero?

Yes. No, Mike, I'll clarify a couple of points. So, the current F-53/F-59 will be managed by Ford Motor Company. So, they'll handle all of that. They're going to work with Detroit on the build-out. They'll have the inventory. They'll manage everything. We won't be involved with any of that part of the transaction. Where we step in is with the new design with the new engine that will come out. The new engine comes out, of course, next year, and the chassis will come out with the new engine in 2028. So, we're stepping in post Ford exiting, and Ford will have all the responsibility with the current design.

So just so I'm clear, the next-gen product will it be roughly the same dimensions, just a different engine and roughly the same layout. So, you have to do a lot of collaboration with the outfitters? And then also, will you be able to do propane in this facility that comes from the Ford ROUSH system as well?

Yes, great question. So, first part of the question, yes, similar dimensions, obviously, the same space, Class 5-6. So I don't anticipate any changes there. For sure, there won't be any changes there. There will be, of course, some integration changes with this because you have to accommodate the new engine. It's got a wider bank for water cooled jackets, et cetera. So, there'll be things that we'll do, obviously, to accommodate the new powertrain and there'll be a level of carryover as well of the current chassis. And then as far as propane, initially, we're going to get into gas. I mean that's the whole announcement really is working with Ford with, and of course, the acquisition of Detroit putting in the gas chassis or redesigning and launching the new gas chassis. Down the road, we'll see what we do with propane. But for sure, there's an opportunity there. We have a great history with ROUSH. And then as well, ROUSH and Ford and Blue Bird have worked together on the current propane. So, for sure, it's a great opportunity down the road.

The next question comes from the line of Chris Pierce with Needham.

Can we just shift back to the school bus market for a second? I guess I just want to understand, what are you hearing from distributors or distributors hearing from customers as you enter the fourth quarter, given where gas prices they are with, I think you've quoted Blue Bird units down 7% in the third quarter. But I want to make sure that it was the school bus also.

Yes. Chris, this is Razvan. So, the year-over-year volumes were down, and this is because we had a relatively high number of finished goods inventory. So, in Q3, we'll build a large number of GSA and fleet units, and this will take a longer time until they are revenue recognized. So, we build the units, but they will be rev rec during Q4. And also, we will build some more of this in Q4, which will play into fiscal '27. So that's the 7% year-over-year explanation. In terms of the general backlog, our backlog is fairly stable. We are solid into Q4 right now. And obviously, we are taking order for next year at this point.

Okay. Perfect. And then I think in the press release, I don't see a price paid for the transaction. I think you referenced an asset swap on the call. I don't want to think about dilution.

It's in the 8-K, the asset acquisition, it's $7 million with cash. There is no dilution.