BNP Paribas SA (BNP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 23, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of the BNP Paribas Second Quarter 2026 Results with Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer; and Lars Machenil, Group Chief Financial Officer. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. [Operator Instructions] I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveThank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We are proud to present very strong second quarter results, which further strengthens our conviction that we will beat our '26 trajectory. We are well on track towards our '28 target of double-digit earnings growth CAGR over '25-'28, something that is not yet fully reflected by consensus. Our CET1 is now at target, paving the way for accelerated distribution in the future. I will first start with a summary of our results on Slide 4. The Q2 amplified the solid positive trend we showed in the previous quarter. Revenue rose at a very strong rate of 12%, a level we haven't seen for a decade. Jaws effect was just shy of 3.7 points at constant scope and exchange rate and is at 1.6 points on a reported basis, reflecting largely the impact of the AXA IM integration. Cost of risk was stable at 39 bps, including EUR 95 million of addition to S2 provisions for geopolitical environment and remains within our guidance of less than 40 bps, which we observed through the cycle. All in all, this means that operating income was nearly -- was up nearly 16%. Below the operating income line, we obviously also have the Ageas/AGI transaction, which means that net profit was up by 1/3. Beyond our very strong earnings, we also continued to deliver on capital. Our CET1 reached 13%, up 20 basis points, meaning that we have already reached our target previously set out for '27 -- end of '27. I will come back to our distribution outlook in a few minutes, but let me mention that we will be paying an interim dividend of EUR 3.23, equivalent to 50% of our first half '26 EPS. Obviously, having reached the milestone of 13% was important, but we intend to continue and build capital. If we focus on our revenues, they are up 12% with well-balanced growth between the businesses. More than 2/3 of our businesses generated revenue growth in excess of 9%. CIB revenues accelerated sharply, up 13%, driven by Global Markets and Securities Services. Furthermore, Global Banking pivoted this quarter, and we see a strong momentum moving forward into the second half of this year. CPBS revenues maintained a very positive upward trend, up 5%, helped by strong NII and commercial momentum illustrated by increased financial fees. CPB was particularly impressive with revenues up 9%. Finally, IPS grew 27% or more than 8% at constant scope, supported by market effect and organic growth in all divisions. Let's now move to Slide 5, which highlights the positive momentum in the rate-sensitive part of CPBS, namely our commercial banks in the Eurozone and Personal Finance. The second quarter accelerated further with revenues up 8.2%. This very strong top line growth reflects the strong momentum we expected and translates into a sharp profitability increase. Our deposit mix remains stable, enabling the reinvestment of our non-remunerated site deposits on the mid- to long-term end of the curve. Based on the current economic outlook, we expect this favorable environment to extend well into our next strategic plan, taking us through to 2030. CPBS profitability will also improve substantially, thanks to the strategic plans that are already well underway. This is well illustrated on Slide 6. After a strong first half of the year, we confidently reconfirm both our '26 and '28 trajectories. Given the strong progress we have already made towards exceeding our '26 target, we are fully focused on accelerating EPS growth and delivering our double-digit growth target over '25, '28. We expect our return on tangible equity to exceed 13% in '28, and this will be driven by strong revenue momentum, very well illustrated in the second quarter, but also tight cost and risk-weight discipline. We will come back to this later. As you see on the right, we are already well advanced in the execution of our strategic plans. We recently presented Belgium and will present BNL in Italy on 18th of November. Arval will follow in the first half '27 once the Athlon acquisition is underway. These plans cover most of CPBS and close to half of the group's risk weight. They all contribute to our return on tangible equity trajectory and share a very ambitious cost/income ratio improvement as well as disciplined risk weight growth. Overall, we expect our cost-income ratio to fall below 56% in '28 with a lot more improvement to come by 2030. Finally, our CET1 at 13% already meets our target and we'll consider excess capital for distribution on an annual basis. On Slide 7, allow us to remind you of our key targets, double-digit earnings and EPS growth for '25, '28 and minimum 60% payout policy from '27. On Slide 8, we summarize our equity story ahead of our strategic plan that will be announced on our fourth quarter results on 2nd February '27. Our business model is, in fact, simple. We have a very well-balanced model, both by activity and by geography. It's uniquely powered by cross-selling across business lines, accounting for 1/3 of our revenues. And importantly, each of our 3 main divisions is on a clear profitability improvement path. In CIB, we have built a division at scale with strong positions across products and regions. Our originate and distribute model is well positioned to benefit from the Savings and Investment Union, supporting further market share gains in the context of the looming investment super cycle. In CPBS, we are accelerating profitability through self-help NII tailwinds and strategic initiatives aimed at improving platform efficiency while maintaining disciplined capital management. Finally, in IPS, we are building a leading asset gathering platform, supported in particular by the significant scale we have now achieved following the AXA IM acquisition. Let's now move to efficiency improvement on Slide 9. Earlier in the year, we announced a comprehensive review of our support functions with a view to sharply amplify the annual savings from EUR 700 million annually to EUR 1 billion. We will pool and streamline our amplification portfolio, amplify the use of AI and simplify organization, optimizing processes and reducing silos. All divisions, geographies and functions will be impacted by our actions with an addressable cost base of EUR 15 billion. Focusing on IT support functions, which account for roughly half of the addressable cost base, we have already identified around 80% of the savings targeted by 2030. Importantly, we expect approximately 25% of these savings to be delivered as early as '27. We will hit the ground running in our next plan. This provides a good illustration of how advanced our preparation work already is. It also gives us confidence that the improvement in our cost-income ratio can accelerate to around 2 points per year from '27 onwards. We will announce our 2030 targets early next year, but we clearly see a path towards a cost/income ratio of around 50% over the time. Before handing over to Lars, let me say a few words on AI on Slide 10. Of course, AI represents a significant opportunity for us to enhance value creation across the group and will accelerate its deployment in an industrial manner. To support this ambition, I chair the Group AI Strategic Committee, ensuring strong governance and clear priorities. We'll focus on high-impact use cases with return on equity on investment with cost control and cyber risk at the heart of our approach. We'll share more details with you when we publish our strategic plan early next year. Beyond what we can achieve with AI internally, we also see a significant revenue opportunity from the investment super cycle, capturing this opportunity will require origination and distribution capabilities as well as investment vehicles to finance future projects. Our integrated business model is well positioned to benefit from this. Let me now hand over to Lars, who will present our second quarter results on Slide 12.
Lars Machenil
executiveThank you, Jean. Good afternoon all. I will not spend time on Slide 12 as in the meantime, you know all our numbers, but zoom on Slide 13, where I want to highlight the significant capital gain we booked on the AGI Ageas transaction for EUR 858 million. We are particularly pleased with it, not only because of the capital gain, but as it contributes directly to increasing our common equity Tier 1. It also improves distribution to shareholders to the tune of EUR 0.50 per share, and it will add EUR 40 million of annual recurring earnings starting next year. So if we now go back to the business, and let's look at Slide 14. So you see our revenues are up 12% or 10.4% at constant scope and exchange rates. So let's first look at CIB. So CIB had an excellent quarter with revenues up 13%. Let's look at the 3 businesses. First, Global Banking. So Global Bank pivoted in the second quarter as FX and rates headwinds that we saw before eased. So we maintained our #1 position in EMEA investment banking amongst European banks. This quarter, we also ranked #3 in M&A, and we see a strong pipeline for the second half of the year. So that's Global Banking. If we turn to Global Markets, which was particularly strong, up 17%, including if you look at Equity and Prime Services, which was up 43% with -- when we look at FICC revenues matching those -- EPS is matching those of FICC. FICC was stable compared to a high base last year. Remember, there was a lot of volatility a year ago in April. The third division is Securities Services. It grew by 17%, taking advantage of high market levels, volatility, but also improved margins and client onboarding, of course. If we move to CPBS, up 5%. And as Jean-Laurent explained earlier, our Eurozone commercial banks are enjoying very strong top line growth and double-digit net interest income growth on the back of an interest rate environment that is quite favorable to us now and to come. Moreover, client activity was strong as illustrated by the healthy uptick in financial fees. If you then look at the specialized businesses, they benefited from improved volumes and margins at Personal Finance. Arval recorded double-digit organic growth, but obviously, the geopolitical environment and rising gas prices continue to impact used car sales results. We now turn to the third one, IPS. They reported 27% revenue growth, which reflects the successful integration of AXA IM. Having said this, the division reported about 8% organic growth even at constant scope, thanks to strong business momentum in each of the 3 divisions. Assets under management were boosted by, on one hand, strong inflows and also market performance. So we've looked at the top line. Let's now move to Slide 15, and let's look at the costs. On this Slide 15, if you look at the top left, you can see that our jaws reached 1.6% or 3.7% at constant scope and exchange rate. So all in all, at constant scope, costs grew around 6%, of which about half variable costs that are linked to the strong revenues, 2% for development and about 1% inflation in particularly in Europe-Mediterranean. If you look at the group level, we keep on track for substantial cost/income ratio improvements, still expecting it to be below 56% in 2028, laying a firm foundation for our next strategic plan ramping up to 2030. As you also see now on the opposite side to the bottom right, a significant portion of the restructuring charges for AXA IM integration will be booked this year. So that's one of the drivers between the jaws effect and the jaws effect at constant scope. So let's now -- we've looked at the top line, we looked at the costs. Let's now look at the asset quality, and we do this on Slide 16 to 18. So on Slide 16, you see the cost of risk reached 39 basis points this quarter, in line with the first quarter. The intrinsic cost of risk is stable year-on-year, and we reinforced our forward-looking provisions by EUR 95 million. We booked that in the Corporate Center. So you see that the divisions cost of risk is stable and that EUR 95 additional million is to reflect the geopolitical environment. So bar unforeseen step-up in these geopolitical tensions, we anticipate cost of risk to be below 40 basis points over the year 2026. In particular, as I mentioned, on the divisions stable, if you look in particularly on Stage 3 provisions, they show no deterioration, and we remain comfortable with the quality of our portfolio. So let me emphasize once again that we are very diversified with little reliance on French economy. I remind you that we have less than 10% of our profit before tax in France. I will not comment on the review per business as I basically synthesized it, but you'll find the details on Page 17. So if we can move to Slide 18, where we provided an overview of the strong risk culture through the cycle. Indeed, our portfolio offers significant sector diversification and high exposure to investment-grade counterparts. This enables us to reduce the volatility of our cost of risk. We also want to remind you of our selective approach to all credits, but private credit in particular, and private credit, which accounts for, let's say, 3% of our loan book and 90% of that 3% is basically senior portfolio financing. Moreover, this segment has no NPLs and is built on conservative standards with moderate loan to values, high diversification and exposure to the strongest private credit players, providing further collateral. So having said that, let's now look at the regulatory metrics on Slide 19. So as mentioned by Jean-Laurent, common equity Tier 1 reached 13%, so up 20 basis points over the quarter, delivering a target that we had the ambition to be at 13% in 2027. We reached it 18 months earlier. And this shows our commitment to building capital and positions the group for accelerated distribution in the next strategic plan. And so the improvement this quarter, it basically stems on one hand from the very solid results. So that solid results with contained risk asset -- risk-weighted asset growth generates 30 basis points of common equity Tier 1. 2/3 of that goes back to the investors. So there's 20 basis points that is accrued for distribution. And then there is 10 basis points perimeter, which is basically the AGI/Ageas deal. And so note that in the second half of this year, the impact of the acquisition of Athlon, which is coming in the third quarter, will consume around 13 basis points, but this should be offset in the fourth quarter by the divestments of BMCI in Morocco. So that's the capital, but it's not only the capital that is doing well, it's also the liquidity. So we reported a very high LCR at 149% this quarter, so up from 125% a quarter ago. And so this highlights our strong ability to manage our balance sheet. As a reminder on Slide 20, we wanted to give the overview of our SRT and our credit insurance programs, which we have discussed before. As of today, just to look at the impact, we have a cumulative risk-weighted asset benefit of around EUR 65 billion, which is equivalent to 90, 9-0 basis points of common equity Tier 1. So our priority is to diversify SRT so that it's not all happening in one moment and on one sector. And that, as you can see, we are doing that very well. And we also complement it with credit insurance in order to optimize here the setup. So this gives me the opportunity to update you on the progress also on the Save and Invest Union, which you can see on Slide 21. And in particular, from what we understand in the second half of the year, the European Trilogue should be completed. So [indiscernible] started. So it's the Commission, the Council and the Parliament that basically paved the way for the first phase of SIU implementation in 2027. So this SIU represents a significant opportunity for Europe, but in particularly for our CIB originate and distribute model, but also for our IPS asset gathering platform, further strengthened by BNP Paribas Asset Management new and leading alternative asset capabilities. Moreover, so it's good for CIB, it's good for IPS. And also in the meantime, CPBS will be well placed to increase its financing in the real economy. So let me now conclude. We've covered the divisions. We've covered the prudential metrics. Let me conclude on Slide 30 with the Corporate Center. So the Corporate Center, we are adjusting our trajectory after first half performance that was better than anticipated. While we acknowledge that the Corporate Center can be volatile from one quarter to another, we now expect a better outcome for the full year than previously thought and guided on. We are, therefore, adjusting our gross operating loss trajectory from EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.2 billion, very much in line with the consensus. Let's not forget, this is a sizable amount, but it includes for EUR 800 million of restructuring charges, half of which are related to the integration of AXA IM. So this is basically the view. I'll now hand it back to Jean-Laurent, who will offer some final remarks and conclude the presentation.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveThank you, Lars. So our second quarter results are a very clear illustration of our acceleration. We are delivering strong balanced and resilient earnings growth with group revenues up 12% and positive momentum across all divisions. Our '28 return on tangible equity trajectory is on the fast track, supported by strategic levers that are already being executed. Costs remain tightly controlled, and we are making strong progress on the program to overhaul our support function, which will start to deliver benefits as early as next year. We expect our cost/income ratio to fall below 56% by '28. Our earnings growth is accelerating towards a CAGR of more than 10% over '25, '28. And with our CET1 now at target, we'll consider additional distribution on an annual basis. On February 2, '27, we'll announce the main targets of our next strategic plan, taking us to 2030. We are well advanced in our preparation with top-down and bottom-up processes nearly fully aligned now. We'll provide you with our divisional trajectory, and we'll continue throughout '27, our series of deep dives, notably CIB. These deep dives provide you with insight about our strategy, action plans and financial ambitions. Both externally and internally, these deep dives get significant recognition. This concludes our presentation. We would now be happy to take any questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] First question is from Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America.
Tarik El Mejjad
analystI have 2, please. First, on the Global Markets. I want to understand how the Q2 actually strong performance, how much of it is sustainable? Can you tell us in the equities, which part is derivatives, which part is client demand versus pure volatility actually benefit? And would you qualify it as a super exceptional quarter or a quarter that could be actually largely repeated in -- if the current geopolitical and macro environment persists? And then on Global Banking, you had RWAs up 5% quarter-on-quarter. I know it can be lumpy. Should we expect some more optimization through different tools to bring down RWAs there because the revenue has not really showed up yet in the quarter despite the big RWA increase. So that's my question on CIB. And then on distribution, I mean, I think in the slide, you removed the -- in '26 results, the 60% payout confirmed that you had in previous slides. I mean, would you consider if, let's say, you do a buyback in Q4 calendar and then to start the higher than 60% payout already within '26 earnings into '27 calendar? Or is it clear that it would be really from '27 earnings that you would pay more than 60%?
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveOn CIB and looking at the global market, this very strong performance derived from, in particular, equities. And what we are seeing is both the result of a certain level of volatility, market that was expanding, but also a strategy of continuous investments, especially in structured products. Structured products, for example, in the U.S. domestic, we are #4 today. In APAC, we are just the same with roughly 9% market share. We're also having momentum in anything that is prime brokerage. So what we are having in the second quarter is, of course, the momentum derived from the global environment in those businesses, but also the fact that we have continuously invested in those domains with good results and good market share gains. So this is for global market. Global Banking, those risk weights are very much linked to the ramp-up during the second quarter. And this is very much a phenomenon that took place at the end of the quarter. And those 5% growth for risk weight is not, I would say, represent the evolution of the second quarter, but it gives an idea of what is coming for the second part of the year. So this division is having a very good strong prospect for the second half. And to some extent, the risk weight evolution is an early signal of this upcoming evolution. On distribution, well, as of today, the policy for the '26 plan is 60%, 50% being the dividend and 10% being the buyback. Yes, it could happen that the 10% might be, I would say, enforced in the fourth quarter like last year, this is a possibility. We have not decided, it's a possibility. And then when you are saying that above 10%, we will have to take a decision in terms of additional distribution. It's difficult to say if it's linked to the '26 year or the '27. We are going to close the, I would say, the yearly accounts end of January 2027. And at that moment, probably in between that moment and the general assembly, we will make a decision on the, let's say, excess. So this is coming in '27, and you can say it comes from the '26, I would say, results. So it's something that is -- can be read in the 2 dimensions. So this is the way it is. 13% is our target. Good enough. We're at 13%. Anything that is above will be considered for additional distribution, additional investment to be decided by the Board. And this come on top of the 60% policy. Of course, for the next plan, we will have to set a new policy in terms of, I would say, distribution and buybacks. This is going to be a piece of the new term plan. And clearly, it's going to be higher than the one in the current plan because the company is more profitable.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research.
Stefan-Michael Stalmann
analystI wanted to ask about the LCR ratio, which saw this spike in the second quarter. Was there any particular reason to that? Or was it a bit of a random number at quarter end? And regarding Arval, I guess, back of the envelope, the business has probably lost around about EUR 200 million on the sale of used cars in the first half of the year. Can you give us any indication of whether this is going to get worse before it gets better or what we should expect to see maybe through the end of the year? And is there any need to revisit your residual value more fundamentally?
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveSo for the LCR, I mean, we are having this quarter 149 percentage points. We're going to integrate Arval on the 3rd of August -- Athlon sorry, Athlon on the 3rd of August. So we have to prepare for that. So you need to have the liquidity upfront. Arval is roughly 12 -- 12, 14 percentage points.
Lars Machenil
executiveAnd we want to operate at 135.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveSo through the cycle, 130, 135 is the target. So we are preparing for the integration of AXA. There is nothing very specific about the LCR. It's a good, I would say, testimony that the company can tap any kind of, I would say, any pool of liquidity worldwide in a number of domains through a number of different businesses. So we have absolutely no difficulty upgrading the -- or pushing up the liquidity ratio if needed. And here, there were something particular linked to AXA. So we went up at that level. On Arval, the business, as you know, was hit in the beginning of March because of the war in the Gulf. This environment remains very much volatile. So it's difficult to understand exactly what's going to be the future, but we are, I would say, quite conservative. So we are having norms and accounting approach that are quite conservative. So we tend to adapt upfront, I would say, the values of -- the residual values of the cars we are having. This has an impact on the top line beyond, let's say, the day-to-day business. It's not, I would say, a loss that is being made on cars we are selling. We are not, I would say, posting losses in that domain, but we're anticipating something that could be slightly below the former, I would say, provisions. So we are doing that in a quite conservative way. It has an impact. And it's moving because the environment is volatile. If you look at the consensus, looking at the consensus for the second half of this year, probably as of today, the consensus is still too high by, let's say, EUR 100 billion. So if you look at the consensus for Arval second half of this year, we still have something that is a gap of around EUR 100 billion. But you have so many other businesses that are delivering better results, in particular, the commercial banks in the Euro area, thanks to, in particular, the rate scenario with the steepening of the curve that is even higher than anticipated that -- well, this is going to be compensated in the company one way or the other. So this is just an information on Arval, but doesn't change the global outlook.
Lars Machenil
executiveBecause intrinsically, Arval is doing very well. If you look at the fleet, it's growing by 5%. And given the fact that we not only finance but also sell other services, the top line is basically up 12%, yes. So the intrinsic is fine. There is this weight on the resell of the cars, which, as Jean-Laurent mentioned, for the second half, and it will be a similar amount compared to the consensus again in '27.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Giulia Miotto Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley.
Giulia Miotto
analystI have 2. So you are providing a very useful slide on SRTs and you are 90 bps at the moment. What is the go-to level here on SRTs? Is 100 bps a good level? Could you do more perhaps? And could things change with the securitization reform? So that's my first question. And then secondly, Jean-Laurent, I heard much more conviction on costs and the path to 50% cost income. What makes you confident? How quickly can you get there? Yes, I would be curious, perhaps you learned something new on AI. So I would be curious on your take on the cost trajectory.
Lars Machenil
executiveGiulia, I'll start with the SRT and then Jean-Hant will continue. So on the SRT, so it's -- as you mentioned, it's an important part. It's if I express it in basis points, we have a gain of 90 basis points. So as I mentioned, we do this over time. So we don't have it all in one go. So on average, of the instruments of the past, there is like 10 basis points falling over. So we do an additional 20 basis points every year. So if you look at it, we have the intention going forward, and this is before the Savings & Investment Union to have 10 basis points a year. If you look over the last couple of years, that is what we have been doing. That is what we continue to do. And as I said, that is before the SIU. Jean-Laurent, on costs?
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveOn costs, in the current plan, we are having every year an additional EUR 700 million of additional efficiency. The initial target used to be EUR 600 million, 2 parts. One was the, let's say, the infrastructure of the company, the functions, EUR 300 million per year. And the second half, I would say, the interface in between the bank and customers, EUR 400 million. We grow and invested quite a lot in the current plan and also in the previous one. And when you are investing a lot, increasing the level of diversification, increasing the momentum in a number of domains like CIB, asset management, wealth management and so on, insurance, when you are pushing quite far in terms of digitalization in the commercial banks, it's slightly more tricky to also, I would say, completely leverage that part that is the infrastructure of the company. So most of this is done. So we can now tackle those domains. They represent -- this represents basically EUR 15 billion. Out of it, we will cumulatively extract EUR 2.4 billion over the period. So we will extract basically 15% of this. And the EUR 300 million that were coming every year from that part is going to be pushed up at EUR 600 million. On top of that, we will continue on a yearly basis to deliver the EUR 400 million. So this, in addition, is going to be EUR 1 billion per year. So roughly, the next plan is pushing the EUR 700 million up to EUR 1 billion and the EUR 300 million within the EUR 700 million up to EUR 600 million. So this is the story. We are very well advanced. We are looking at this situation since August '25. So now we are 1 year later and bottom-up, top-down approach now are close to the conclusion and more than 80% of those EUR 2.5 billion over the period of EUR 600 million per year are now clearly identified and we are having plans and actions. So we are quite confident on our ability to deliver.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Pierre Chedeville, CIC Market Solutions.
Pierre Chedeville
analystFirst question regarding asset management in Q2. The net inflows were only EUR 6 billion compared to EUR 15 billion in Q1, if I'm correct. And I wanted to know if you consider this figure a little bit disappointing and if there is any reason -- specific reason? My second question is relating to the likely operation in Germany that we have in mind. And I wanted to know if you consider that it's a game changer, first, from your ambitions in Germany regarding the Mittelstand customers, but also from a more global view on the European banking landscape? What do you think of the potential birth of a new giant at the European level?
Lars Machenil
executiveI'll start with -- so on asset management, listen, between quarters, you can have some difference in volatility and demand. If you look at the overall evolution, we've guided for 4% growth. We are at above that. So there is nothing else to read into this.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveOn Germany, tangentially, this is an operation that is very much around private individuals, SMEs, and this is not typically the domain in which we are really operating in Germany. We are very much an investment bank, global bank in Germany, wealth management, asset manager, C fleet financing. specialized consumer lending, which is not typically a business competing with commerce. We are not in the SME domain. So for us in Germany, it's neutral. We have nothing that can come from this transaction nor in a negative or positive way, if I understand well the point.
Lars Machenil
executiveBut anyway, I mean, if you look at it intrinsically, as you know, there are many banks in Germany. So the trend for consolidation is logical. But for us, it is not in our space.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Delphine Lee, JPMorgan.
Delphine Lee
analystJust 2 quick ones. Just wanted to come back on capital. So you target 13% CET1 ratio in your new plan. I'm just trying to think a little bit about your approach on distribution. Is it -- would you want to distribute all the excess above 13% or keep some kind of buffer or set some capital aside for investment? Just if you could share a little bit your thoughts about just the general approach. And also related to capital, is the intention still to deliver the 20 to 30 basis points of capital benefit from disposals by '27? And then my second question is on BNL, where NII is still a little bit under pressure. Just kind of wondering a little bit when we should see a little bit of that inflection point and an improvement on margin?
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executive13% is 13%, but it's not 13.2% or 13.3% or 13.4%, it's 13%. So above 13% starts at above 13%. So this is very simple. And bps are coming from organic generation of equity or disposal or both, but they are just equity. So we do not make a difference in between additional equity coming from investments or additional equity coming from, I would say, organic generation. So once a year, the Board will have to take a decision, having in front of the a certain level that is going to be above 13%, and we'll have to decide which amount they will distribute on top of the regular, I would say, distribution. Once again, for the next plan, this could be different, meaning higher than in the current plan. So we could say instead of 60%, we could say 70%. This is a possibility. It's not decided, but it's a possibility.
Lars Machenil
executiveWe could say that.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveWe could say that. And then even at 70%, there is a possibility that even at 70% on a regular basis, the group might generate additional equity. So back again, you will have to decide year after year how to distribute through, I would say, additional dividends or buybacks. So still to be understood. On BNL, the balance sheet is very much a fixed rate balance sheet because the strategy of the bank, which is a big difference compared to the market is to distribute fixed rate mortgages. It had some advantage in the previous cycle. It's a major complexity in the current cycle. This is the way it goes in banking, we have cycles. And in the next plan that will be disclosed in November, you will see that BNL will target a 20% return on notional equity, I would say, targets. So this is the this is the program. So you have a number of domains in which BNL can make and deliver good progress, the cost base, grabbing market share, additional cross-sell. So this is the point. So 20% is not as high as the Belgian bank that gave 26% in 2030. But if you look at the evolution, it's basically just the same. So this is for BNL.
Lars Machenil
executiveMaybe if I can have one complement is even that given the fact that we have been repricing the deposits, you should see a pivot in that line for the second half. That's the one thing. And also, let's not forget that BNL is just part of what we have in Italy. So that's one of the other things we will do during the deep dive in November, show that there is adjacent to that, a similar activity that is complementary to what BNL is.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.
Chris Hallam
analystJust 2 quick ones. First, on restructuring, is EUR 800 million still the right number for this year? I expected it to be up a bit quarter-on-quarter, but it was down slightly. So I just wondered if we're going to finish the year below the EUR 800 million level you talked to earlier? Or whether we should be expecting sort of EUR 250 million to EUR 300 million per quarter in the second half of this year? And then another one again on capital. You mentioned several times in the prepared remarks, RWA and capital efficiency. You've already got to the 13% target CET1 level. You've sort of ruled out any major acquisitions. So if I think about 2027 RWA growth mirroring the discipline you've seen this year, maybe you'll eat up 25 basis points or so from RWA growth, but that puts you in a position to distribute 80%, 90% of earnings a year from 2027 onwards before any M&A tailwinds or headwinds. Is that logical? Or am I missing something there? I think it chimes along with what you just said about sort of maybe thinking about 70 plus as the right run rate for 2027 onwards.
Lars Machenil
executiveChris, thank you for your questions. Now on the restructuring, we stick to EUR 800 million. That's what you see on Slide 30. I mean those restructuring costs, they are not linear. They can fall in different periods because you have to decommission systems and what have you. So we stick to EUR 800 million. When you look at the 70 basis points on the common equity Tier 1, listen, as we mentioned, we typically have with the growth of the earnings and the risk-weighted assets that you see, we, on average, have a tad shy of 10 basis points that we generate a quarter. So that could go up a little bit. So let's say that, that could be 40 basis points. And then I don't know if getting to the 70, you add whatever the disposal of 25. But in the run rate, it is rather 10 basis points that those RWAs with the earnings we generate on a given quarter.
Chris Hallam
analystJust on 70, I meant 70% payout. And I think you still said 70%, it would be like 80% to 90%.
Lars Machenil
executiveNo. So then rephrase your question because then I probably misunderstood. Can you rephrase?
Chris Hallam
analystYes. I think next year, if you were to do relatively disciplined RWA growth, there's no major acquisitions, the RWA growth maybe consumes 25 basis points. If I just think about your payout potential as a percentage of earnings, that puts you closer to 80% or 90% payout as a sort of structure from 2027 onwards, which I think chimes with what you just said earlier of 70% or more? I just wanted to double check on that.
Lars Machenil
executiveThat's right. So I misunderstood your question. So indeed, in the natural generation that we have and then if we will look once a year what the excess is and decide that we return it, it would indeed get you to a ratio of something around what you mentioned.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Sharath Kumar, Deutsche Bank.
Sharath Ramanathan
analystOn the fleet growth, given that it's been growing by 5% annually for several quarters. So what can you say reassuring about the residual value risks in light of all of the used car price pressure that we have seen? And from an accounting point of view, do you also take prospective depreciation adjustment in anticipation of weaker residual value? So is that already included within your used car sales? And then can you provide the mix of electric vehicles versus ICE vehicles in your overall fleet? So that's the first one. Second is on backlog. Given the pressure in used car markets, what gives you the confidence that the Athlon acquisition still on target to achieve 18% ROC? And can you quantify the P&L impact assuming that we have an August integration? And any integration costs we are aware of for this year?
Lars Machenil
executiveSo first, so on the fleet growth, so what is, as you mentioned, we see continuous the 5% that we see on the fleet. As a reminder on the distribution between ICE and EVs, so at a stock today, we have like 20%, which is EVs, 80%, which is ICE. If you look at what we saw in the last quarter, the production of new EVs was rather 28% and the ICE was 72%. So that's a bit how the fleet evolves, and that is why -- so that fleet evolution basically drives the prices up for the EVs and drive them down for ICE. And so that is why every time we look at the cars that come back onto the market, well, they face EVs, which have a higher price, which is good. They have ICE, which have a lower price. But given the fact that we have 80% ICE, 20% EVs, that is what weighs on the resale value. And listen, I will not give more on that. Jean-Laurent mentioned compared to the consensus, what we see in our stance to be the difference. So when it comes to Athlon, indeed, so we intend to basically have closing beginning of August. Remember that one of the things that we mentioned on Athlon is that it consumes capital, but that capital will be compensated by the sale of BMCI. And I remind you what we said. So the capital consumed by BMCI was generating EUR 30 million net profit, whereas with Athlon after integration, we anticipate that it generates on a yearly basis, EUR 200 million. So that's that. And on the valuations of it, we are confident. So there was not -- if you look at what is the public data, Athlon did not revalue much during COVID. And with all of the due diligence we have done, we don't anticipate that situation to be that different. And moreover, Athlon has a higher fraction of EVs versus other. And I remind you, by putting it together, we really make a champion that now has material activities in many of the countries we are active. And so that is why we are very pleased to be closing the deal beginning of August.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Andrew Coombs, Citi.
Andrew Coombs
analystJust a couple around some of the previous questions actually. So firstly, a lot has been talked about the potential to increase the payout ratio next year, given where you already are on the core Tier 1 ratio, would you also consider increasing the 2% organic RWA guidance? Are there areas where you think you could deploy capital and you'd like to deploy capital given where you've already reached on the capital position? And then second question, you asked about Italy and the interest margin there. But on the flip side, France and Belgium were very strong. You particularly called out the decline in term deposits. You've called out the reinvestment on non-remunerated deposits. But was there anything one-off in nature this quarter or anything you call out? Or could we expect further margin expansion similar to what we've seen this quarter?
Lars Machenil
executiveSo if you look at -- so indeed, Belgium and France, no, there was no one-off. So we've guided that the growth that we are having is basically on the -- that we take now the impact of the higher rates. On top of that, we have the cross-sell and that we step up. And if you look at that, so there is the impact, but then there is also, if you look at it, the deposits are going up. So the margins are kicking in. The volumes are going up. The overall pricing and particularly in Belgium, the margins versus the competitors are holding better. So those are all the elements that drive up and there's basically no one-off in it. When it comes to the payout, so we basically answered it. On the acquisitions, listen, with what we have done, we basically considered that the setup of the bank is where it should be. So in the past, we have been building and redeploying capital in CIB. So we've been able to get Exane on board, the prime brokerage and so on and so forth. And so now that is a complete system. You saw our second quarter results. So we have that platform. We are growing it in several regions, and so that's working very well. We've done with AXA IM, we've basically done the same thing when it comes to IPS. So there also, we have the setup and within CPBS, within our networks, we have it as well. So that is basically what I would say with respect to that. Operator, would there be any other questions?
Operator
operatorYes. Next question is from Anke Reingen, RBC.
Anke Reingen
analystI just have some small questions. On Asset Management, I'm a bit surprised to see the revenues down quarter-on-quarter given the strong growth in assets. Anything we need to consider here? And then a question on the Corporate Center. I know it's hard to estimate, but is the EUR 77 million negative adjusting for the EUR 80 million gain? Should we see this as a run rate? Or was there anything in terms of updated guidance? And then sorry, a sneaky question on capital. Apologies if I missed it. Is there still any guidance about model update headwinds that we should consider?
Lars Machenil
executiveAnke, I'm a bit confused. So can you -- at least your question on the Corporate Center, can you rephrase so that I understand?
Anke Reingen
analystAny guidance on the run rate in revenues?
Lars Machenil
executiveYes. So the run rate what we've guided for is basically 0 over the year. You have seen that in the second quarter, we have EUR 200 million, yes. And so I adjusted the overall charge of EUR 1.4 billion to minus EUR 1.2 billion. So basically, the gain that we have taken this quarter, I've adjusted it. So that basically means I still -- with whatever I see, I consider it will be 0 for the rest of the year. Listen, there are many volatile elements. There can be like here, there has been some elements on liquidity. And also given the transactions that we have been doing, that basically gets accompanied by derivatives in that time that impact. So our overall guidance remain on 0. Can you also rephrase your third question on the capital gains?
Anke Reingen
analystNo. In the past, you've guided to regulatory headwinds. Is there anything we should consider?
Lars Machenil
executiveWell, the headwinds we have been having in the past are indeed material. So there is the whole supervisory and regulatory changes that have been -- that we have seen. At this stage, we have seen it coming down. If I can look at it, if you look at Europe and the legislator, they basically see that they have to find the right balance. So on one hand, the FRTB is pushed already to the end of the decade, and we'll see what they do. And if you look at the simplification document that has been published by Brussels last Friday, they are really looking and also reflecting on how the whole banking regulation can be coherent with banks supporting the economy. So that's a bit where it stands. Remember, our guidance, though, we have said that on average, what we still expect is the impact of 10 basis points given regulatory supervisory kind of things. So we stick to that. We don't see anything else on the horizon. Operator, we're done?
Operator
operatorWe have no more questions registered at this time.
Jean-Laurent Bonnafe
executiveSo again, as a conclusion, as you can see, we delivered on the CET1. I guess we gave some additional clarification on anything that is going to take place now in terms of distribution, return to shareholders and additional, I would say, buybacks, 13% is 13%, not more. We are very confident in our target that is earnings growing at a minimum of 10% on a yearly basis. We are well advanced in terms of preparing the next term plan, in particular for anything that is support function, additional efficiency, close enough to confirm that so far, we haven't found any, I would say, additional complexity or anything that could prevent targets we already, I would say, gave previously that is to say 50% cost-income ratio for 2030 and a return on tangible equity of 15%. So this is, in a nutshell, the situation we are in. Good strong quarter, good momentum. And I would say, solid preparation of the next plan to come with those targets that we believe are, I would say, more than a possibility for us looked at from the second quarter of this year. And the next plan will start in only half a year because in 5 months, we'll be in the next plan. So we have to be confident and we are confident. Thank you so much. Take care.
Lars Machenil
executiveThank you. Have a good summer.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, this concludes the call of BNP Paribas Second Quarter 2026 Results. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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