Boliden AB (publ) (BOL.ST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 5, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Olof Grenmark
ExecutivesLadies and gentlemen, I'd like to welcome you to this Boliden 2026 guidance presentation audiocast. My name is Olof Grenmark, and I'm Head of Investor Relations. Today, we will have a presentation led by our President and CEO, Mikael Staffas; and our CFO, Håkan Gabrielsson. We will also have a Q&A session. Mikael, welcome.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesThank you, Håkan, and good morning, everybody out there. The whether here in Stockholm is actually really gloomy today, but it's not snowing like it was when we had the Q3 presentation, and we almost missed the presentation because we were stuck in traffic. Anyway, we're going to talk about 2026 and the 2026 outlook. For the mines, well, first of all, it's the first full year with Somincor and Zinkgruvan included. So we now have them part of our -- all of our guidance initiatives. We have higher grades in the open pits, and we'll come back into more of the details around that. We also have increased milled volume in several of our mines. We have in Aitik expansion due to less diorite. In Garpenberg, we have gotten an extended permit. This permit can still be appealed, but we did also get the permit -- to use the new permit while a potential appeal process is ongoing and thus, we can guide for higher throughput in 2026. The Boliden area, the Kristineberg expansion is also leading to more throughput. And in Tara, the ramp-up is coming on, and we have more volumes coming through there than we have in this year. We're also making clear in the minds that we have the changed tax levels in Finland. It still says here potentially increased annual cost, the reason why it's potential is that the budget is not yet through the Finnish Parliament. There are still discussions ongoing, but I think the prudent way to think is that these taxes will go through in some shape or form, at least in the next few days. On the smelter side, we have a increase in order. The first feed is coming in Q1, and we have a roughly 2-month delay compared to what we have said before. We have encountered certain issues during the ramp-up period. The project in Rönnskär, is however, working very well and continuing according to plan with a ramp-up during the second half of '26. And the planned maintenance has an EBIT effect of the SEK 450 million, we'll come back to that as well. On the CapEx side, the group CapEx for the next year is guided at SEK 15 billion. Out of that, mine sustaining is roughly SEK 6.5 billion. And this number, we do have -- well, at some later stage come back to more details because we're still fighting out with some suppliers, but there are some, I would say, minor overruns and all that they are included in these numbers in here. So I'll leave it over to you, Håkan, to a little bit go through the details of the numbers.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesThank you, and good morning. So on this slide, and in the press release, we give milled volume for each mine and also the grades for the key metals for 2026. And as you can see this is a similar format to what has been used in Boliden earlier years. Some key points, for Aitik, we expect milled volume to be at 41 million tonnes. That is an improvement from this year. We see milled volume gradually coming out as the impact of the diorite intrusion is reduced. Grades 0.18% for copper and 0.08 grams per tonne for gold and we expect an improvement mainly from the middle of 2026. Also in Kevitsa, the grades are improving, and the milled volume as usually stable at the permit level of 10 million tonnes per year. So we see a stronger production in the open pit mines in Boliden. As Mikael said, Garpenberg has an expanded permit, and we expect a production of 3.7 million tonnes for next year at 2.9% zinc and 95 gram silver, which is slightly down to this year. We talked about the continued ramp-up towards 4.5 million tonnes at the last Capital Markets Day. So to put it into context, I refer back to that presentation. And then you can see the grades and the throughput of the remaining mines further down on the slide. I'd also like to highlight already here that in the appendix, you'll find a comparison with rolling 4 quarters until Q3. This is great milled volume, but you also have cash costs rolling 4 quarters as well. And we expect to report cash costs every quarter going forward, given the rolling 4 quarter cash cost in each quarterly report. So Mikael?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesSo we're also just going to say a few words about what we're doing in the -- what are still we consider 2 new mines that we bought from Lundin and we took control over in April of this year. In Somincor, we have done -- and we did relatively quickly the first action that we did was changed the shift schedule. This had been a sore point for quite some time in Somincor and it's been a little bit stuck in different negotiations. We went ahead with this one and got what I would say very good acceptance for this, and we figured that this -- we think that this new shift schedule is the basis for the future improved productivity as we move forward. We have substantially increased near mine exploration around this. We are doing surface exploration drilling on the Lombador North extension. And altogether, we have gone from 2 to 6 drill rigs on surface. We are working with geophysics in the Rosario area, and we are updating the feasibility study of the Semblana mineralization. So if I should say something what I feel about this compared to what we've done, I would say that, yes, we had a vision doing these things, but things looks relatively good also compared to what we had in our own plans as we took this over as we made the due diligence. We have increased the mine development, horizontal developments to get over to Lombador North. We have put in a new ventilation races, and we are working on an ore pass to get more flexibility in how to work with the mining. We should, however, be clear that we're doing these things not to -- with the ambition to increase the production. The production volume at around 4.5 million tonnes per year is stable for the next coming years. We knew about this as well. We knew that we did not believe that even the 4.5 million tonnes was sustainable unless you took more actions, and that's what we're doing with the increased mine development around this. Mill optimization. We are having a large study underway to see what we can do on mill optimizations -- and we're, of course, working with improved -- to try to get improved recoveries. However, we're not guiding for that for 2026. We're guiding for the recoveries to be expected to be unchanged. The work on how to set up the mill in a more efficient way will take more time than that. We've also -- and this is, of course, mainly something that was done already under Lundin time. So we basically just took the last step around getting the new global industry standard on tailings management, compliance completed, and it is now completed, which is good for us and good as we move forward. On Zinkgruvan, we have also here increased focus on mine extension and that is the primary focus. And it's mainly development of the [ Derby ] mineralization that we're working around to get this working. We have extended tailings facilities. That was according to plan. It was already initiated in the previous owners, but we have continued that one. We're going to get it in operation in 2026, which is a good way of securing additional life of mine. And also here had been started already under previous ownership, but we have been able to move this one forward to being a full compliance with the GISTM, which also feels good going forward. We're working here also with optimizations in the mill, but just to be very clear that the recoveries are at least for 2026 expected to be unchanged. This is also a longer-term discussion than that. And the mill volume for next year is stable at 1.5 million tonnes and is likely to stay stable at 1.5 million tonnes for the next few years, even though we're not guiding specifically for anything else than the next year. In Odda, as I said earlier, the hot commissioning has taken longer or will take longer than we -- than we had anticipated. The first feed will be in Q1 rather than right before Christmas, as we had hoped in the original plan. We have encountered both some mechanical issues that needs to be sorted out and also some electrical issues that need to be sorted out. That, together with the fact that you get entangled with the Christmas and New Year's plans as -- with the contractors means that we're losing roughly 2 months compared to what we have said before. The annual capacity increase is still the same at 150 kilotonnes of zinc and 45 kilotonnes of the leach product. And here, we can also say that although we never thought it would be difficult to sell the leach product from a commercial point of view, we can now confirm that we have a very strong interest from buyers for the leach product, and it looks very easy to sell it, if we want to use that word. And we're also looking to get good price and terms in selling the leach product. The one that we're going to sell, some of them will actually be treated in our own Rönnskär facility. The increased improved annual EBITDA is around EUR 150 million per year as we come into full production. This is fully in line with what we have said before. And that's not such a big so strange because that's with the Boliden long-term planning prices in place, which also changed very slowly. If you were to make this on spot, it probably will look a little bit better. The increased depreciations of about SEK 700 million, '26 versus '25 as we start to put on the depreciation as we ramp up. In Rönnskär, everything is moving on according to plan. It looks quite good. We are 60% completed as of November this year, that's very much on track, the ramp up during the second half of next year. One thing that you don't -- if you look at this picture and look on the ceiling and you look a little bit to the left, you see that there is something there on the roof going on. That's actually that we're dismantling the roof when this picture was taken to put in the last cranes. We decided to make the building first before we had the cranes and then we had -- we have to open the ceiling to get the cranes in. That operation happened earlier this week and the cranes are now there. That's one of these things since then we can seal the ceiling again to make this work. And as you see the building is there in place, the building that's in the front that's working on, you can see the 2 yellow cranes around is the electrolyte cleaning facility. That one is the only one where the walls are not up as quite of yet. But in a few weeks, those wall will also be up, and we'll start working on the -- on the internal installations there. The capacity is still at 230 kilotonne on copper cathodes capacity. And the annual increase of EBITDA as we get going around this one. Here, you've seen around -- a number before of around SEK 1 billion. It now says SEK 1.2 billion and that's reflecting the somewhat changes that we've also done in terms of the prices and terms in our long-term planning prices. So that also looks good. Then I will leave it up to you, Håkan, to talk a little bit about the maintenance and the smelters.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesOkay. So as you saw already on the first slide, we expect the profit impact of maintenance stop in smelters to be SEK 450 million in 2026, down compared to an expected level of SEK 500 million in 2025. And this is an EBIT impact. So you have part of it coming on cost and part on revenues. And below, you see the quarter down, and as usual, the heaviest part is in Q2. And then finally, some comment about Rönnskär and this is actually quite positive news. We have made an updated assessment of the metal recoveries in Rönnskär, which has a positive impact on operating profit in Q4 2025 of about SEK 400 million. And this is done -- the background is that after the fire, we had some new material flows with anode sales and also materials from the Harjavalta smelters that were sent to Rönnskär. And at that time, there were a fair amount of uncertainty as to the recoveries of those flows. We also had some risks in the recovery of metal from the ground where the old tankers was destroyed by the fire. Now as a result, we have operated with conservative assumptions on metal recoveries in our accounting. And we have now better visibility, including some recent stock takes. And we have, therefore, been able to adjust the accounts resulting then in a positive one-off item of SEK 400 million in Q4.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesAnd with -- I think the presentation comes to an end, and we will now leave it over to the operator for questions.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Adrian Gilani from ABG Sundal Collier.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsTwo questions from my end. First of all, on Aitik, do you expect to see any recovery issues persist into 2026 as well due to the diorite problem? Or are the recovery issues fixed at this point?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI can take that quickly. The recoveries have already gotten better, if you saw Q3 was clearly better than what we had in Q1 when this was a really persistent problem. We expect those recovery issues to basically go away quite a lot during the year. It's not due to diorite, that's due to oxidization, which is a separate challenge.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsOkay. Understood. And then with the Garpenberg permit now in place, can you give any time line on when you might be able to announce any investment decision to actually take the throughput to 4.5 million tonnes?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesHere, we say that we have already announced an investment decision that we had the Capital Markets Day, both with the new paste plant and other, and we gave a lump sum for others bunch of smaller investments. Altogether, I think it was SEK 1.5 billion or SEK 1,550 million to get to 4.5 million tonnes. But it's one thing to get to 4.5 million tonnes and another thing to stay at 4.5 million tonnes, because to get to 4.5 million tonnes, we can use some shallow positions. But as they get depleted, we need to go on the depth, and we need to have more investments. So I would say that we don't need any more investments than what already has been announced to get to 4.5 million tonnes, we will need more investments, and we'll come back to those to stay at 4.5 million tonnes.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsOkay. And just as a follow-up, are those going to be taken mainly in 2026?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesThere might be some decisions in 2026, but in terms of capital, it's going to be later.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Krishan Agarwal from Citigroup.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsFirst one is a bit of a mechanical on Rönnskär. So the guidance for SEK 1.2 billion EBITDA. Can you confirm that the metal recovery, particularly the gold and the silver is going back to the level of 400,000 ounces and 50 million ounces which you were producing before the accident?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesThat's always very difficult to answer because that will always, in any given year, depend on what feed we have. And we will always optimize feed that might not be optimized to keep a certain gold production level. It might be increased optimized leading that you produce less gold, but you still make more money. So we tend to be very vague in terms of guiding exactly how many byproducts we'll get as it's dependent on the feed mix that varies from year-to-year.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsUnderstand. But is it safe to assume that, okay, feed mix will be consistent and there is no material change as compared to what you were doing before?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesWell, from a kind of 10,000 feet point of view, you could say that we will be trying to have similar feed as before. But this is a liquid market that change and suddenly certain parameters in these things, be it penalties, be it gold price, be it something else changes. And that, of course, leads to new optimizations. So -- but I would say that we're going to get back to the same run as we had. So of course, we will be looking at similar feed as we had before.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsUnderstand. Very clear. The second question is on Aitik. I mean, 41 million tonnes of milling volume guidance. I mean, if I go back and look at the 5-year history sort of has operated at that level. So where does the 45 million tonne actually comes into the play? And more importantly, is there any kind of CapEx requirement you foresee to reach that 45 million tonne?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesExactly when we reach 45 million tonne, we're not guiding for today. So that will be for a later guidance, we're only guiding for '26. However, we have said before that the main challenge is diorite and diorite appears in certain areas. We were surprised that it came a little bit sooner than we thought. But as we come through diorite, we should be able to increase throughput without any substantial investments that -- we have the equipment to do 45 million tonne when we have -- don't have diorite presence.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsUnderstand. Very clear. So there's no as such pressing need for the CapEx to reach that 45 million tonne, it's more of the mine sequencing?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesMore of the mine sequencing.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsUnderstood. And the final question, probably for Håkan. So you're guiding for SEK 6.5 billion mine sustaining. Can you also help us break down the CapEx between SEK 6.5 billion mine sustaining for the mining business, what is the sustaining CapEx level for the smelting business and then rest is safe to assume that it is a pure growth CapEx? And where that growth CapEx is likely to go in 2026?
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesOkay. I can say a few words around that. However, I think that we'll come back to a deeper guidance or a deeper breakdown in the Capital Markets Day in March rather. But -- this year, we have -- as you say, we have guided for EUR 6.5 (sic) million [ billion ] mine sustaining CapEx. And this is then stripping of waste rock. It's underground development and raising of dams. And if we adjust for the new units, it was SEK 6.5 billion also in 2025. Then we talked in the last Capital Markets Day of a handful of strategic projects, big important projects that we've been running. In 2024, they amounted to SEK 8 billion. In 2025, they came down to SEK 5 billion. And it is further being reduced in 2026, although I will not give an exact number this time. We'll come back to that in the Capital Markets Day. But to give some more detail, I mean, these bigger projects -- we had the Aitik dam that was finalized in 2024, late '24. The Kristineberg expansion finalized in the earlier parts of '25. Odda, the Rönnskär tankhouse and the sand recycling project in Boliden are still ongoing. And then you can add the Garpenberg spend that we talked about recently to get up to 4.5 million tonnes to that list. Now Odda is in the final part that goes away during this year. Rönnskär is on a similar level this year as last year. The sand recycling that's a SEK 2.5 billion project in total, that's actually increasing the momentum a bit. And then out of the SEK 1.5 billion investments in Garpenberg, we did have only a minor portion in '25, and I'd estimate about half of it will happen in '26. So all in all, there are still a number of strategic projects that are ongoing. They are lower -- as a total, they are lower compared to the SEK 5 billion that we had in '25, but we'll come back to a further breakdown. The main growth projects that we have, that's the final parts of the Odda projects, the SEK 4.5 million spend in paste plant and others, the SEK 1.5 billion that we talked about in Garpenberg, and then I guess it depends on how you see it. You could see the Rönnskär tankhouse either as a replacement, but it's -- it's adding profitability at least. So if you want to include it as a growth project as well, that could be there. The remainder then are replacements, some productivity, some EHS investments. I think it's worth mentioning that we have a phase of slightly higher replacement CapEx in Aitik as we are moving the old industrial area to access the ore that is beneath. So that's roughly where we stand, and then we'll have to come back to further details in the Capital Markets Day.
Krishan Agarwal
AnalystsUnderstand. That's the comprehensive detail. And if I can ask a broader question. So 2026 probably will be the fourth year for you to stay at SEK 15 billion CapEx level. Is there any kind of a visibility in the next, say, 2 years for you to come down or SEK 15 billion probably is the new norm for the group CapEx?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesEverything beyond 2026, we'll take it later times.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Liam Fitzpatrick from Deutsche Bank.
Liam Fitzpatrick
AnalystsTwo questions for me, one on Garpenberg and one on Rönnskär. On Garpenberg, I take your comment around future investment decisions, and that will be needed to maintain at 4.5 million tonnes. But in terms of thinking about getting to 4.5 million tonnes, is it kind of fairly linear from here on out in terms of stepping up to that level? That's the first one. And then the second -- sorry go ahead. Yes.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes. So on that one, it's fairly linear. I think we said in the Capital Markets Day that this may be a 2030, we should be able to get there.
Liam Fitzpatrick
AnalystsOkay. And then on Rönnskär, I know the SEK 1.2 billion, I think it's based on the -- on your long-term assumptions. In terms of a rough feel for -- at spot levels, we've got very high pressures. We've got low TCs, is it going to be similar to the SEK 1.2 billion uplift or will it be materially different?
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesIt would be a bit higher. I think we actually talked about a number on a question in the last quarterly call and said SEK 1.5 billion. And that's -- I haven't done the update the last week, so -- but that's roughly what I would estimate at the current gold prices.
Liam Fitzpatrick
AnalystsOkay. And that's uplift versus sort of current EBIT levels?
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesEBITDA levels.
Liam Fitzpatrick
AnalystsEBITDA levels. Okay.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesUplift versus current EBIT levels.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Marina Calero from RBC Capital Markets.
Marina Calero Ródenas
AnalystsI have a couple of questions as well. The first one on working capital levels, given that you are ramping up Odda and Rönnskär, how should we think about that in the coming year? And then the second one is on Garpenberg as well. Now that you have the permit and you know all the conditions. Is there any additional CapEx that Garpenberg is going to require in terms of -- to meet with the environmental requirements of the permit?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI can take the second one, I'll leave Håkan with the first one. The second one, just to be very clear. We have gotten a permit. With -- if that permit were to stand exactly as it is, we would not require any more CapEx than what has already been guided for. That will be included in that on what we need to do. However -- and we've gotten the permits to start producing more than 3.5 million tonnes while a potential appeal process is ongoing. If it's appealed and if there will be -- and the appeal court decides to hear the appeal, where they can still refuse to hear it also if they want to do that. But if they hear it, there could, of course, be some still 4.5 million tonnes, but some other conditions on something that we don't know. But as it is given now in the lower court, there is no extra CapEx required on top of what's already been guided for before. And I'll give it to you, Håkan, to talk about working capital levels.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesExactly. Well, working capital, we've got about SEK 0.5 billion for Odda that will come in possibly some already in Q4, but otherwise, in Q1, and then it's roughly SEK 1 billion for Rönnskär, which we'll see during the second half of 2026.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Johannes Grunselius from SB1 Markets.
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsIt's Johannes Grunselius here. I have 2 questions. The first one is on Aitik. You guide for 0.18% in copper grade. How should we think about that grade over the quarter? Is it kind of back-end loaded improvement? Or is it more evenly spread throughout the quarters? That's my first question.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesBack-end loaded.
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsBack-end loaded? Yes?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes.
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsOkay. Could you give some color on it? How we should think about start? And the...
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI think that when it comes to kind of how that was split over the quarters, we might come back to that when we report Q4 and so on, because it's still -- quarterly -- it's always a little bit sensitive, but it is back-end loaded. Yes.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesI think we said in the press release -- sorry, I think we said in the press release that it's -- the increase is mainly happening in the second half of the year.
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsSecond half of the year. Okay.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesIndividual quarters, we'll come back to...
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsOkay. Then on the Odda project, maybe you already touched upon it. But you -- it seems that you're delayed with additional 1 to 2 months. Is this sort of something you think is more about timing and other stuff? Or have you encountered any sort of new technical challenges over the last few weeks. Could you give an update on that, please?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesWithout going into detail, I would rather say that we've been kind of some old technical challenges. I mean, it's not that there is any kind of fancy new technology. It's just that when you start everything, everything should work. And if things have not really been properly done, you need to redo it. And there's always something of this happening in every project. It was unfortunately a little bit more that this takes a little bit more time to fix.
Johannes Grunselius
AnalystsYes. But your view on the Odda investment, the economics and so forth, that remains completely intact? Or how should we think about that?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes. There is nothing that has come up during the commissioning so far that indicates that we're not going to meet any of the parameters of the investment decision. In other case, the recoveries, there is no indication that they will not work.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Amos Fletcher from Barclays.
Amos Fletcher
AnalystsYes. A couple of questions. First one was just on Kevitsa. Could you confirm whether the Pushback 5 project is on hold as a result of the Finnish mining tax or whether you abandoned it? And then also, is there any likelihood of you guys lifting the cutoff grade and shortening the mine life as a result of the new taxes?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesThe good thing for us is that we don't really have to decide whether we scrap it or put it on hold. It's basically the same thing. And while it remains on hold, it will eventually get scrapped if nothing happens in between. The existing Pushback 4 will not really be affected that much. It will be mined according to how it was done relatively close according to the mine plan.
Amos Fletcher
AnalystsOkay. And then I just wanted to ask on the 2026 CapEx guidance, does that include any allocation assumed for the cement projects, which you were saying that the last set of results has been a bit delayed in terms of the approval time line?
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesNo, it does not include the cement project. We'll come back to any numbers around that.
Amos Fletcher
AnalystsOkay. And then I just wanted to ask on the tailings side with respect to the 2 new assets acquired. Should we expect -- is there any kind of meaningful uplift to the provision base that we should assume as a result of GISTM approvals or compliance for those 2 tailings dams?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesNo, have mainly been taken. So -- and I'm a little bit uncertain exactly what the annual uplift cost changes will be, but they will be relatively in line with historical numbers.
Amos Fletcher
AnalystsOkay. So you don't expect any kind of material impact on that net reclamation liability?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesNo, not on the net reclamation liability, for sure, not. I thought it was more a question that as you go into GISTM, you might have actually other technologies for raising dams that we have ourselves, and we have increased cost -- annual cost in Aitik as we said because of the GISTM compliance in Aitik. But I think in the case of Somincor, there has not been this kind of redesigns of dams. Therefore, there should be relatively similar uplift cost as historical.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Richard Hatch from Berenberg.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsI've just got 3 questions. The first one is just on the SEK 400 million EBIT from the release of metal. Should we just drop that through into the cash flow statement as a working capital release? How should we just -- how should we think about the accounting of that, please? That's the first one.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesThe cash flow is independent. So it's mainly an EBIT effect. So you shouldn't feed it into the cash flow.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsSo is that -- so it's noncash. Is that correct?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesSome of the cash has already come.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesSome has come and some is in the future, but it's not a one-off cash impact.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsOkay. Any quantification as to how much is cash and how much is not?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI mean at the end of the day, it's all cash. It's just the timing, and it ends up in the account in 1 quarter and the timing of the cash is spread out over a long time and some of it has already come to the accounts.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsRight. Okay. The second one is on Kevitsa, mining materially below the reserve grade of, I think about 0.31% copper. So if your '26 guidance is 0.24%, how should we think about the direction of travel back up to the reserve grade?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesIt should continue up, but I would refer there to what we said at the Capital Markets Day, where you're absolutely right, there is clearly an upward path also after this.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsOkay. And then the last one, I think we're all trying to understand this CapEx piece on Garpenberg. So it'd be good to get some more information on it in time. But if I look historically, you've run the CapEx number at this mine at about SEK 500 million, SEK 600 million, SEK 700 million. And then I guess if you take the throughput up to that sort of 4.5 million tonnes, should we think about the additional CapEx? Is it almost like a linear adjustment to that just because you've got to have more development to your point. Is that the right way to kind of think about it broadly?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI think that's the right way to think about it broadly, especially as we're kind of ramping up. However, as we've talked about before, in order to maintain that level, we will need a new shaft. And that's, of course, a pretty big CapEx item that will come in the future for us to remain at 4.5 million tonnes.
Richard Hatch
AnalystsWhen do you need to push the button on the shaft decision?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesDecision probably during '26. It might not be so much money during '26. Money is probably later, but most likely during '26, we'll have to make a decision.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Christian Kopfer from Handelsbanken.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsJust a follow-up on Aitik and not trying to get too technical here. But I think previously you talked about that you have had some issues with oxidized zones in Aitik. And just to be clear, those are not -- those are not correlated with diorite?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesSorry, do you hear me? They are independent.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsThey are independent?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsOkay, fine. And then if I look at your guidance for the full year 2025 for Aitik, you have been pretty clear that you expect close to 41 million tonnes, right, for the year?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsThat would assume that you will see a pretty remarkable step-up in milled volumes in Q4. So if you take that number, and also take into consideration your guidance for next year, it seems quite conservative. So it seems that because then it seems that you are not doing any improvement at all during next year in terms of milled volumes?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI think I misunderstood you there right now. We have guided for 40 million tonnes for this year and 41 million tonnes for next year.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsYes, Exactly. So 40 million tonnes for this year, that indicates quite a substantial pickup in milled volumes for Q4 then?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes. I think you need to look at this in a whole year, Christian, because there are other things that plays around, for example, how much maintenance you have in different quarters and things that makes that different quarters jump up and down. So we did, for example, have quite a lot of maintenance in Q3 in Aitik. So I wouldn't take those numbers to seriously on individual quarters. Let's look at the full year.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsOkay. But then finally, just to understand it, so you're not really seeing any improvement this year in terms of milled volumes from that.
Mikael Staffas
Executives41 million tonnes is clearly better than 40 million tonnes.
Christian Kopfer
AnalystsYes, but you had a very quite big issues in the beginning of the year and now...
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes. And exactly where the diorite comes in varies a little bit between quarters, but because it comes a little bit in different pushbacks, and so on. So the answer is the guidance is 41 million tonnes.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Daniel Major from UBS.
Daniel Major
AnalystsSorry it's a few minutes late joining. So apologies if any of this has been asked before. But the first question on Aitik, since you completed the 45 -- Aitik 45 project, you haven't been really particularly close to 45 on an annual run rate basis. What is the realistic medium-term assumption for Aitik throughput?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesWe have touched upon this earlier, and we've also said that as of right now, we do not have any more to say about years beyond '26. We might come back to this in the Capital Markets Day in March or Capital Market Update, I should say, in March.
Daniel Major
AnalystsOkay. And then the second on Kevitsa, the mining tax. How should we be accounting for this? Is this a tax item or a royalty item? Is it through the tax line or through OpEx?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesIt's not to the tax line. This comes to the -- its basically an operating cost.
Daniel Major
AnalystsOkay. So it's a royalty item -- it's before EBITDA?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesIt's before EBIT.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesBefore EBITDA and included in EBIT. So it's in the operational results in that sense as an operating cost.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesYes.
Daniel Major
AnalystsOkay. That's clear. And then just a follow-up on the previous question around Garpenberg CapEx. I've got SEK 1.85 billion as a CapEx number from the Capital Markets Day for paste plant and other requirements to get to 4.5 million tonnes. Is that still the right number in terms of the total CapEx to get up to the 4.5 million tonnes?
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesI think you should have SEK 1.55 billion, the way it was guided, and that is still the right number.
Håkan Gabrielsson
ExecutivesSo SEK 1.55 billion is the incremental CapEx that we guided for in the Capital Markets Day, then of course, we have a basic level of underground development and so on.
Daniel Major
AnalystsOkay. Okay. That's clear. Yes, I think they are the main questions.
Operator
OperatorThere are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Mikael Staffas
ExecutivesOkay. Thank you, everybody, for attending this, what is for us an inaugural thing. We have not guided in this -- at this timing, you could say before and in this format. But with that, I think that hopefully, you've gotten everything that you wanted. And I will take the opportunity to wish you all happy holiday season whenever it comes up for you. And I look forward to talking to you all again in the beginning of February. Thank you all.
For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to Boliden AB (publ) earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the
EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments,
full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.