Bombardier Inc. (BBDB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Bombardier's 2022 Investor Day. We are here today at Laurent Beaudoin Completion Centre, a LEED-certified facility named after the visionary leader who brought our company into business aviation. Every year, the thousands of women and men working here design, craft and install business aviation's highest-caliber interiors. Today, from inside the delivery bay where Bombardier celebrated milestones like the certification and entry into service of the Global 7500 or more recently, the historic 1,000th delivery of a Global aircraft, our management team will talk to you about how Bombardier has been hard at work to execute on our commitments. Our presenters today include Bombardier President and Chief Executive Officer, Éric Martel; our Executive Vice President, Services, Support and Corporate Strategy, Jean-Christophe Gallagher; and our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bart Demosky. Throughout the event, our Vice President of Communications, Marketing and Public Affairs, Eve Laurier, will introduce you to Bombardier team members who are instrumental in progressing on important initiatives in the fields of our operational excellence, sustainability in aviation and women in engineering. We'll also leave ample time for Q&A period. Our 3 presenters will be happy to interact with you directly. Questions will be limited to sell-side analysts and institutional investors. I'd like to remind you that if you would like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please use the number shown on screen, which is also available on the Investor Day 2022 page of our website. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer Page 2 of our presentation. During the course of the Investor Day, we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, future results or the future financial performance of the company. Several assumptions were made in preparing these statements. These assumptions are based on our current knowledge as it exists today. I wish to emphasize that there are risks that actual events or results may differ materially from these statements. I'm making this cautionary statement on behalf of each speaker whose remarks today contain forward-looking statements. And with that, I'd like to turn it over to Éric to get started.

Good morning. We are very happy to be with you today to talk about Bombardier's positive trajectory. We are living in remarkable times. And for Bombardier, these times have presented challenges but also opportunities. Today, you're going to hear words like resilience, derisking and steady growth. We're going to show you how we are executing on our plan, and how that plan is building predictability for our stakeholders. Let's start by looking at the last 12 months. When I spoke to all of you last year, we presented our 5-year plan as we began a new chapter as the company purely focused on business jet. We presented 4 main goals: to deleverage our balance sheet, to improve the profitability of the Global 7500, to expand our aftermarket business and to increase productivity while reducing cost. This plan brings Bombardier revenue to $7.5 billion by 2025, with more than 1/4 coming from our aftermarket business and converting this into strong EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion and cash generation of more than $500 million. This is an achievable plan. It's based on predictability, a solid cost structure and executing on things we can control. Today, 1 year later, I am pleased to provide an update on our progress. Let's start with debt reimbursement where we have been very proactive by moving decisively and effectively to derisk the business. Our efforts have reduced our overall debt by $3 billion, saved more than $225 million in interest payment, and finally, created 36 months of that runway, giving us time and space to execute our operating plan. It is important for us to build a strong foundation for success. The steps we've taken over the last 12 months are helping us to do that. But we are not done. In fact, on the back of our strong liquidity to start 2022, we announced last week that we are repaying an incremental $400 million of debt, and we're going to continue to be opportunistic going forward. Importantly, as we strengthen our balance sheet by reducing our debt and the resulting interest payment, we will be in a strong position to invest more of our capital towards developing our business. Let's turn now to the Global 7500 aircraft. This is the industry flagship. This aircraft has redefined the business aviation landscape, and we are close to delivering our 100th unit. The learning curve is progressing extremely well, and our production costs are decreasing according to plan. When I talked to you last year, we had reached a 40% reduction from our first aircraft to #50. We've made significant progress since then with the production and labor costs down another 20% by the time we get to our 100th airplane, which is just around the corner. In 2021, we turned this program into a positive EBITDA contributor, and the outlook is even better for 2022 as we continue to benefit from the learning curve improvement. On the market, this business jet has been received extremely well. It is increasingly in service with fleet operators, and customer feedback is very positive across the board. We will further benefit from a gradual appreciation in pricing starting in 2023. All of this adds up to a growing impact on our bottom line. The aftermarket is another area where Bombardier is hitting its target. We are steadily growing our share of this lucrative business. As you know, we have a growing fleet of nearly 5,000 aircraft around the world. We saw a higher-than-expected level of flight activity in 2021. This healthy activity is beneficial, of course, but it's important to note that we are deliberately and steadily increasing our share of the aftermarket. Over the last year alone, we went from 35% market share to 39%. We are on track to reach our goal of 50% by 2025. That represents $2 billion in annual revenue for the company. We are making the right moves to reach this goal by enhancing our offering and strategically investing in key service locations around the world. My colleague, JC Gallagher, will give you more detail on our aftermarket plans a little later. The fourth and final objective we presented is a cost reduction and productivity increase that will result in an EBITDA contribution of $400 million for 2023. This is another area where we are delivering. We have already identified all the necessary measures it will take to reach our goal. Our cadence is strong. Not only we are on track for our 2023 target, but over the last year, we even overachieved our objective. We reached cost savings of $135 million, over and above our goal of $100 million. This is a credit to our teams being focused, organized and disciplined. We are firmly on track with our 5-year plan, standing by our commitment to derisk the business to be predictable and to deliver steady growth. All of these progress we made in 2021 puts us in a great shape for 2022 and beyond as we continue to execute on our plan. And the future is very promising based on Bombardier's place in the industry. We have the best jets and a strong and loyal customer base. These trends put us in an excellent position to benefit from positive market dynamics. Our refreshed portfolio of Challenger and Global business jet is performing extremely well, and I'm more confident than ever in the smart choices we've made to protect and grow our market share. In 2021, we achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5, the best performance since 2013. This is important because it helps us build a strong backlog of orders, which further helps us deliver predictable results quarter after quarter. Our Global 7500 aircraft is the proven industry flagship, an award-winning, record-setting clean-sheet aircraft that continues to stand alone in terms of performance and innovation. Our Global 5500 and Global 6500 aircraft are the newest in a very successful and sought-after line of jets. It's worth mentioning that we've reached the milestone of 1,000 deliveries in 2021, a huge achievement that speaks to the enduring popularity of this platform. That represents a lot of satisfied customers. Our Challenger 650 business jet is really a special platform. It's a plane that a lot of people love to doubt except our customers. They love buying it because it's a sure bet, and they continue to do so. It's a smart choice for fleet operator, thanks to its range, cabin size and low operating costs. It's also a go-to platform for a special mission conversion. And of course, this year, we will begin deliveries of our new Challenger 3500 aircraft, the evolution of our iconic Challenger 350 business jet. Our launch of the Challenger 3500 aircraft in September is a perfect example of a strategic investment that is yielding strong results. As you know, there are competitors in this space who would like to take our market share, and we are not about to let that happen. Here is a video that details our recipe for success on this platform. [Presentation]

As you can see, we made smart changes to the best-selling Challenger 350 in order to have maximum impact while staying within our CapEx envelope. We focused on the cabin experience and leveraged innovations from other platforms such as the Nuage seat. We made a smart investment to protect our #1 position in the super midsize market on a product with good margins. And this strategy is working. We received a very positive reaction, and we are seeing a strong order intake. I am extremely pleased with the popularity of our portfolio. But to remain successful, we must always look to the future. We must keep evolving. We're taking the time to evaluate our next moves carefully and to be strategic in our plans. We will monitor our evolution and technology, for example, we'll factor into our future products. The importance of sustainability will also influence our portfolio. Innovation is in our DNA, and we're going to keep innovating in order to stay competitive and to attract the best and brightest minds to our company. There's also room for us to further tap into our technology investment from the Global 7500 aircraft and integrate them into our portfolio, like we did with the Challenger 3500 aircraft. We are looking to responsibly introduce the right product at the right time and to make sure our investments deliver strong returns. A little later, my colleague, Bart Demosky, will tell you how we are factoring in these investments. Speaking of the future, it's important to mention that sustainability, social responsibility and good governance are central to all of our plans. We are committed to a sustainable future for business aviation, and we are playing an important role in shaping that future. A significant part of our R&D budget is going towards sustainability initiatives. We have so much talent and knowledge here at Bombardier, so many innovations to our name, and I'm proud to channel that expertise toward greener skies. We've set clear goals and targets for our environmental, social and governance approach. We are making ESG element a priority across all of our operations, because it's important to our company as a whole. We are very proud of our ESG report, which we'll be updating in May 2022. And we will continue to talk about how we govern and to be transparent about our initiative as they evolve. Turning now to our backlog. We saw significant growth in 2021. Over the last year, our backlog has gone from $10.7 billion to $12.2 billion, a $1.5 billion increase. Our Skyline is largely filled for 2022. If you look behind the numbers, the news is even more positive because our backlog is increasing across our portfolio. The growth that we've seen is not just for one aircraft type. It's spread across our entire product line, and that's very encouraging. What all this tells us is that our portfolio is hitting the right notes as interest in business aviation grows and preowned inventory shrinks. This increase in our backlog is another example of how we are derisking our operation and solidifying our foundation around stability and predictability. We also have healthy diversity when it comes to our customer mix. Last year, 22% of our deliveries were to fleet accounts and 14% to public corporations. That 62% share that you see represents high-net-worth individuals and private corporations together. 2% of those deliveries were to special mission customer, a key area of growth for us. It's worth noting that we signed a significant contract with the U.S. Air Force in 2021 for as many as 6 more Global aircraft for their BACN fleet. Having diversity in our customer base means we are well positioned no matter which demand pool is performing well. Today, we see business travel picking up, and more people turning to our industry. Our portfolio has a solution for each customer type. We have worked hard to build a sales team that is close to customers based on geography as well as business type. We are ready to capitalize on whatever customer type presents itself at any given time versus relying on any given segment. Fleet account, for example, have been a key strategic accelerator. They attract new customers but also create an environment where some clients transition to full ownership. We are well placed with all of the major fleet operator, and many new customers' first business jet experience is on a Bombardier plane. We also have diversity in the geographic location of our customer. North America is the biggest piece of the pie, followed by Europe and CIS. But other parts of the world have promising potential for growth. We are a global player with loyal customers on every continent. Our comprehensive portfolio is built to meet the needs of customers flying the Continental U.S. as well as those looking for transatlantic or transpacific flights. This customer diversity makes us more resilient to market fluctuation and like our backlog, helps us to be predictable. For the private aviation industry, the pandemic has acted as an accelerator. We have seen the market recover faster than we had expected. Flight hours have surpassed 2019, and preowned inventory is hitting record lows. The conditions are in place for the market to keep growing, and Bombardier is set up to grow our share of this market. This year's 120-unit guidance contains an increase in the proportion of our Challenger deliveries. These extra jets will replace the deliveries that we saw in the light jet category in 2021. So the delivery mix this year will actually be more profitable. And with positive market drivers persisting, we expect a 15% to 20% growth in deliveries in 2023. Our outlook is positive, even while keeping in mind that the market also has some headwinds, including inflation pressure, supply chain disruptions, attracting talent and interest rate increases. Bombardier is in good position, given that medium and large categories will continue to represent 90% of industry revenues. As you can see, Bombardier is very much on track towards reaching its 2025 objectives. Our revenue are up. The aftermarket is representing a larger portion of our revenue year after year. Our margins are improving, and we are generating positive free cash flow, and we have achieved all of this while deleveraging our balance sheet, something that we continue to be proactive about in 2022 as our recent activities have shown. In conclusion, we have a solid plan in place for Bombardier to be a stable, predictable company with an outstanding portfolio, diverse revenue streams and a varied customer base, all of which will contribute to steady growth. Now before we move to the aftermarket portion of our presentation, I'd like to turn it over to Eve Laurier to tell you more about how Bombardier's operational excellence program is helping drive predictability.

Thank you so much, Éric. What a year we've had. Now we have the great opportunity to speak to David Murray. Can you tell us a little bit what is our operational excellence system at Bombardier?

Well, actually, Eve, our system is our lean manufacturing system. So Bombardier went through a lot of changes. And our system is really to align the organization in one way of working, one process. And we've launched this last year, and it's quite exciting.

What do you get out of this? What's the impact of our operational excellence system?

Yes, 2 things, actually. So velocity. So this is really important. So as we're building airplanes, selling airplanes or servicing airplanes, velocity in our decision, in our day-to-day activities is super important. And this is #1 focus that we're focusing on. The second thing is actually removing roadblocks in our processes. So we have a lot of processes as you're building an airplane or servicing an airplane. So we need to simplify the way we're working. So this will add value, obviously, to our operations and even will produce better quality airplanes.

We know that the system at Bombardier really helps employees to feel engaged because they feel the value that they're getting out of the system day-to-day. We know that customers really value it because they have a place to go. What about investors and analysts, the financial community, what's in it for them? Why is this important to them?

Well, it's all about adding value to what we do. So when you simplify your process, obviously, you're going to be more effective in what we do. And this is what the system is all about. So we've launched 250 cells throughout the company. And all the employees are going to be working in finding these issues, raising up the issues, so we can remove these roadblocks. And the beauty of the system is that there's an escalation process. So every day that a cell is facing an issue, a cell being, for example, employees what is supervisors, and he cannot process a task for whatever reason, he can escalate that. The beauty of the system that we started is the escalation even ends up with Éric Martel at the end.

Thank you, David. That was fantastic, and good luck for the deployment. It sounds like you're doing great already.

Thank you. Eve.

Now it's time to turn it to JC Gallagher. JC is going to tell you all about our aftermarket.

Operational excellence is one of our core values. I'm immensely proud of our aftermarket organization for putting this in practice every day as we strive to deliver exceptional experiences for our customers. It's good to see you all again this year. Allow me to walk you through the strategic approach to our aftermarket business or in simple terms, how we service our customers' planes better than anyone else. I'll add color and data on the decisions we made in the past to grow this segment as well as our strong plan for the future. In the last few years, our efforts have been laser-focused on bringing our jets home. As the OEM, we have the experience and expertise to offer unrivaled support for our jets. We've successfully implanted this strategy within our business and have proven to ourselves that operating a large network of maintenance bases is by far the best way to channel our OEM parts to the market. But now we are on the verge of the largest footprint expansion in our company's history. This expansion will allow us to bring our aftermarket revenues to a whole new level. But first, let's review the financial progress we've made toward our goal of becoming a $2 billion business as well as our performance in the last 7 years. Aftermarket revenues have steadily increased since 2015, which is when we began to maximize our infrastructure footprint. As you can see from the chart, the pandemic appears in early 2020. Despite a very brief drop when almost all aircraft traffic was grounded, revenues got back to an upward trend as flight hours returned to normal. By the end of the fourth quarter in 2021, our revenues were 44% higher than in 2020 and 17% greater than the last quarter of 2019. In Q4, when we achieved $363 million in revenues, our annual run rate was close to $1.5 billion. What's key is that in the last 2 years, we continued to forge ahead with our investments to expand our footprint, and the pandemic didn't stop our progress. We successfully navigated through the downturn. And today, we are able to capture the market as it recovers, and we are able to clearly appreciate our trajectory towards our financial target. Our target to reach $2 billion is firmly in sight. We plan to get there by capturing half of our own aftermarket. Throughout 2020, the size of Bombardier's aftermarket was approximately $2.8 billion. Of that total, we have captured about $1 billion, which is roughly 35%. As we emerge from the pandemic, our potential market grew to $3.2 billion in 2021. We captured 39% of that or $1.24 billion, and this is as our expansion projects continue to solidify. By 2025, our plan is to capture a 50% share of a $4 billion market. As the market continues to grow by 5% each year, our target is to grow on a double-digit CAGR by continuing to capture share. How we get there depends on key drivers that include: one, the overall utilization of the Bombardier fleet, which can be quantified in monthly flight hours; second, fleet growth, which is contingent on new aircraft deliveries entering the market; and finally, an aging fleet, which unlocks opportunity for increased maintenance work and the sale of aircraft parts. I'd like to add further perspective on these key drivers for demand. Let's look at them more closely. In 2020, monthly flight hours for our fleet of business jets were at approximately 75% compared to 2019, so before the pandemic. And while flight hours were still low at the start of 2021, the second half of the year showed an exceptional recovery, allowing for the full year 2021 to be roughly aligned with 2019 levels. The United States and Europe are leading this recovery, while Asia is still lagging at the moment. It's worth noting that flying hours in December stood at record levels, largely carried by the large fleet operators. There is a resounding testament to how our industry has recovered. The unprecedented demand for private aviation through fleet operators, such as Flexjet, NetJets and VistaJet, they have reported a significantly higher increase in demand, an exceptionally solid growth in 2021. The safety business jets provide is one of the main reasons for this great demand. During the pandemic, we saw untapped demand from new first-time customers to private aviation who turned to business jets for their travel needs, many of them through fleet and charter operators. In short, private jets allow people to fly safely and efficiently and without the large crowds typical of commercial air travel. As more people realize the value of business jets, new demand is fueling the growth of our fleet, especially in the coming years, with the increasing number of new aircraft delivered at a faster pace relative to aircraft being retired. Our fleet will reach 5,000 Bombardier business jets in service this year, one of the largest fleet in the world. If we look at the distribution by model, we have more than 1,000 Global business jets in service, close to 2,000 Challengers and more than 2,000 Learjets. In terms of where these aircraft are located today, North America is our biggest market for aircraft deliveries. Half of our network service centers are in the United States as well as a significant portion of our parts inventory business. But if we go back a decade, the international market is where a larger number of Bombardier aircraft deliveries were being made. Today, this translates to increased demand for services from international customers. All of these older business jets will come due for scheduled maintenance and parts replacement. This is why we optimize our infrastructure investments, to capture growth in both international and North American markets. Our aftermarket business provides predictable revenues as we move forward. It's a key reason behind our capital allocation decisions and why we have been investing steadily. About 80% of the aftermarket activities we expect to capture are associated to calendar and flight-driven maintenance. These include maintenance events driven by regulations as well as work required to maintain the airworthy condition of a business jet. The remaining 20% will come from discretionary modifications. These are driven by upgrades on older aircraft. In both cases, the OEM is extremely well positioned to capture this work as we have the skills and the ultimate engineering expertise to deliver exceptional value and customer experience. Over the years, many service providers around the world have grown to become significant players in the Bombardier maintenance field. This highly fragmented market was largely driven by the fact OEMs historically did not have a physical presence in many geographies and relied on a network of authorized facilities. At a certain point in time, Bombardier had 70 authorized facilities around the globe. Today, we have 15. We are, by far, the largest maintenance provider for Bombardier products in the world as we apply approximately 2 million hours of maintenance every year. As we continue to bring our jets home and as many of our OEM competitors do the same, we fully expect to see an overall consolidation of the maintenance market. Most of our own growth will happen organically as we increase our footprint around the world, but we don't rule out small acquisitions in geographies where it makes sense. Our service facilities are, for us, the ultimate parts distribution tool as we are able to operate such a network at a lower cost than the one involved in maintaining a large number of authorized facilities. So why do customers come to Bombardier? First, we are right there where they fly. Our investments over the years have consolidated our presence in the United States and Canada as well as in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, the UAE, Singapore, China and soon to be Australia. Second, we offer a unique ecosystem of solutions guaranteeing the ultimate peace of mind. This starts with our industry-leading cost per flight hour parts coverage called Smart Parts. But today, this ecosystem extends to the digital realm. State-of-the-art technology allows aircraft to be connected in real time with the OEM for faster troubleshooting and more time spent flying instead of on the ground. We're also diversifying our services through strategic collaborations with respected industry leaders like Signature Flight Support, Jetex and Rolls-Royce. First, let me review the state of our footprint. With almost 3,000 employees in our aftermarket organization around the world, we are essentially everywhere to support customer needs. Our competitive advantage lies in the strength of our people. Behind this global network is a large team of exceptionally talented and customer-driven individuals. And I'm proud that they come to work every day devoted to their craft and to delivering world-class service. On any given day, they help support more than 250 aircraft throughout our entire network. And this network is growing with new capabilities and products that continue to build customer loyalty. The expansions to our various facilities and new constructions will add close to 1 million square feet to our network. This represents a 50% increase in our overall service capacity and a transformative shift in our aftermarket capabilities. With our diverse network of 20 service centers and line maintenance stations, 30 mobile response team vehicles and many parts facilities, we're strengthening our relationships with customers through more service entry points than ever before. Next, let's look at our infrastructure investments, starting in Asia Pacific. This region is a growing market for business aviation. This is our exceptional Singapore service center, our first significant expansion into Asia Pacific, which began with a small hangar in 2013. With the growth of our worldwide fleet and the ability of our aircraft to fly longer ranges, we saw the importance of Bombardier having a presence in Singapore, which is a popular aerospace hub. This facility is located at the Seletar Aerospace Park and has nearly quadrupled its footprint since 2013, providing even more capabilities and increased revenue opportunities. The expansion also brings considerable benefits for business jet operators, including a full-service paint facility, advanced interior finishing capabilities and an expanded suite of repair and overhaul services. Our new service center in Melbourne is also getting ready for business this year. Located at the Essendon Fields Airport just minutes from downtown Melbourne, our new facility will allow us to service our significant fleet in Australia. This is an especially important market for Bombardier. Since 2010, Bombardier has captured the largest delivery share of business jets in Australia with 1/3 of the market. It's also a gateway to our growing market in Asia Pacific. Moving over to Europe. We're putting the finishing touches on the expansion of our London Biggin Hill service center. There are more than 650 mobile business jets in Europe. The Biggin Hill service center is ideally situated to serve as a hub for our growing fleet in this region. Moreover, it's strategically located just a 7-minute helicopter ride from the heart of London's business district. The expansion will more than double the facilities footprint. It will be large enough to accommodate 14 of our flagship Global 7500 aircraft at any time. We're also introducing a range of sought-after capabilities such as interior refurbishments. Biggin Hill is operating in tandem with our Berlin facility located at the Schoenefeld Airport. Our investment in London means our customers in Europe have their needs fully covered. And finally, as we cross the Atlantic, our brand-new super-sized maintenance facility in Florida is taking shape at the Miami Opa-locka Executive Airport, one of the fastest-growing private aviation airports in the United States. This is an important business jet hub for our customers in North and Latin America. When completed later this year, it will be our largest service center in the United States under one roof, providing tip-to-tail maintenance capabilities for all aircraft in the Bombardier fleet. This facility will be large enough to accommodate up to 16 Global 7500 aircraft at one time. It will cater to the medium and large aircraft delivery trend we're seeing in the market going forward. Now our plan to bring our jets home is built on growing our network to create expanded capabilities for our customers to come back to Bombardier. It's also about creating a unique ecosystem to give our customers the ultimate peace of mind. First, we know our aircraft better than anyone. Our passionate teams of more than 1,200 highly trained technicians specialized in maintaining only Bombardier products. They know every inch of our aircraft from the inside and out. And these frontline workers are backed at all times by Bombardier's engineering team who possess a deep and extensive knowledge across Bombardier's entire family of aircraft. To complement our workforce talent, we offer a unique digital and programmatic ecosystem. Bombardier was the first in the industry to introduce cost per flight hour coverage on airframe system components with its Smart Parts program. Today, more than 1,600 aircraft are enrolled in these programs. Being on Smart Parts mean you have priority access to high-quality OEM parts backed by unrivaled warranties. Finally, our Smart Link Plus connected aircraft program lets customers use the data captured on their aircraft to quickly make efficient maintenance decisions and better manage their operations. It allows the OEM unprecedented access into the aircraft for faster troubleshooting and response times and ultimately, enhance predictive capabilities; bottom line, when you own a multimillion-dollar aircraft, you want to maximize uptime, focus on your critical missions and not have to worry about the airworthiness of your aircraft. This is why you come to the OEM. Finally, let's deep dive into how strategic collaborations with some of the industry's best known service providers will bring even more value to customers. For example, to complement our newly expanded Singapore service center, Bombardier has joined forces with executive aviation leader, Jetex, to provide customers with a world-class FBO experience from arrival to departure. We also diversified our maintenance offerings through an agreement with Rolls-Royce. We can now provide engine leasing options at our service centers for select Global aircraft customers. This convenient program provides a great deal of ease and flexibility. All engine and airframe maintenance work can be done in one location. You will see us build on this trend to provide more and more solutions for component repair and overall on site. And just recently, we announced a milestone agreement with Signature Flight Support. This partnership means the largest FBO chain in the world is joining forces with the best business jet OEM in the world to provide an unprecedented experience for our customers. Together, we will develop a multifaceted suite of initiatives to transform the service experience at Bombardier facilities and at select Signature locations in the United States and Europe. As you can see, these partnerships allow Bombardier to engage with customers throughout their ownership experience. Diversifying our presence in all segments of the aftermarket is a key component of our strategy. A further example of this is our recently announced certified preowned program. With demand for preowned business jets at an all-time high, it made sense for us to strengthen our presence in this segment, which is often an entry point for owning a Bombardier product. Each aircraft selected into the program is meticulously inspected and upgraded by our experienced aftermarket teams to reflect Bombardier's highest quality and safety standards. This also serves to funnel more work to our growing network as a separate revenue stream to traditional customer requests. You will see Bombardier come up with many new creative aftermarket programs such as this in the future. Ultimately, our focus on aftermarket is a sound business opportunity on its own, maximizing revenues and profits generated through the servicing of our aircraft. But maybe even more importantly, this focus on providing exceptional experiences throughout the ownership life cycle is an essential part of what makes Bombardier the leading business jet OEM in the world.

Thank you, JC. We're going to talk about sustainability with [ Sid ] today. Hi, [ Sid ].

Hi, Eve.

[ Sid ], the investment community and the analysts are listening to you right now. Why is having an environmental product declaration so important at Bombardier?

It's very important because as a global corporate citizen, we recognize the responsibility we have towards the environment. And we've basically set forth our goal to achieve zero net emissions by 2050. And so just recently, we launched the environment, social, governance plan, which outlines that we want to reduce fuel consumption or to reduce energy consumption, water waste, waste in general. And rethinking how we do our products and how we design our products is a fundamental aspect to making these goals happen -- to achieve these goals.

[ Sid ], thank you so much for explaining to us today how sustainability and aviation at Bombardier do go hand in hand. And on this, I'm going to pass it on to Bart, our CFO, who is going to share the financial results you've been waiting for.

Thank you, Eve. As both Éric and JC have shown you today, we are well on track to deliver our 2025 objectives. The plan we laid out last year remains intact, and the strategic priorities to get there are still the right ones. Our entire management team is laser-focused on delivering this. We are also mindful that business aviation is a long-term industry. Aircraft fly for decades, and new products aren't put into service overnight. As we continue to stabilize our balance sheet and derisk our business, we are also turning our attention towards building the capital allocation flexibility to make the new product investments that will power Bombardier into the second half of this decade and beyond. Today, our portfolio and competitive positioning is very strong as we continue to harvest the benefits of past investments. Looking to the future, the combination of strong liquidity to start off 2022 and robust cash flow generation going forward is putting us in a great position to continue deleveraging our balance sheet as demonstrated by our $400 million call on our 2024-'25 bond maturities announced last week. Deleveraging will be our primary use of excess cash in the coming years. Our priorities are clear, and our strong performance in 2021 has put us in a great place to execute on. We have built a strong foundation over the past 12 months and are now much more resilient. This was achieved through executing on a few key priorities. First, we have built up and diversified our backlog across all platforms. With backlog come certainty on pricing, on customer payments and stability in our day-to-day operations. We were not in this position in past years, which put added pressure on pricing as well as our liquidity profile. Second, we have meaningfully grown earnings, which are up 220% versus 2020. We have executed on our plan so far, and profits has increased as a result. Many of the actions we have executed on in 2021, such as the Global 7500 learning curve and our cost reduction initiatives, will continue to deliver benefits to the P&L in '22 and beyond. Third, we have an industry-leading portfolio, which allows us to be disciplined with our capital allocation and deploy our excess cash towards debt repayment and reducing interest expenses. Put together, this allows us to have a more predictable financial performance going forward as well as a more stable liquidity profile and ultimately accelerate capital allocation decisions with regards to deleveraging. Our 2025 objectives are on track, and we are executing on the things we control. The strong demand environment for new aircraft will help accelerate the recovery of new aircraft deliveries, expected to be up another 15% to 20% in 2023. Over the long term, we will continue to command our share of the market by leveraging our unrivaled product portfolio. From where we stand today, we still have significant earnings and cash flow growth in the years to come. By executing our plan, we expect to bring our revenues to $7.5 billion, converting them at 20% into $1.5 billion of EBITDA margin, all while generating meaningful positive free cash flows and delevering the business to approximately 3x EBITDA. Our plan is clear and I will take you through our road map from where we finished 2021, starting with revenues. Our revenue bridge is straightforward. We expect growth in aircraft deliveries in 2023, while aftermarket growth will be more evenly distributed over the next 4 years. We are targeting to grow our aftermarket content as a percentage of our total revenues to 27% by 2025 from the 20% where we stand today. Having already increased it from 18% in 2020, we are right on pace with our goal. This will diversify our revenue mix and increase our exposure to a predictable repeat customer business, less affected by economic cycles. Overall, we expect our revenues to grow at a CAGR of 5% between 2021 and '25 by leveraging our fully refreshed portfolio and growing our aftermarket. We will do this while remaining disciplined with production rates, ensuring that we have the right backlog length and pricing. What's most compelling about our plan is the meaningful EBITDA growth we are looking to deliver within this revenue profile. Over the next 4 years, we are planning to more than double our EBITDA by continuing to execute on the strategic priorities we set last year. While the goal of achieving $1.5 billion in EBITDA by 2025 remains the same, there are some assumptions that have changed, mainly on pricing and cost inflation. In 2021, we saw strong pricing across all platforms. However, CPI and other material indices have also increased over the same period and will impact the cost of our operations. Overall, we expect these 2 items to roughly offset over the next few years. Turning to our key strategic pillars. The Global 7500 still has significant room to contribute to our bottom line and will continue to be one of the main EBITDA growth drivers for the next 4 years. Our cost reduction plan is well on track, and we expect to see $265 million of incremental savings flowing through the P&L over the next 2 years, bringing our total to $400 million when including the portion that has already materialized in 2021. The aftermarket expansion, which JC covered earlier, is also a significant driver of earnings growth, one that will be repetitive and add more resiliency to our operations. Lastly, we expect positive earnings conversion from increasing deliveries, mostly by 2023. These will be partly offset by some growth in period costs as well as foreign exchange headwinds and the curtailment of eligible support programs. With that, let me take you into the details of each of our 3 major earnings growth contributors to update you on where we stand after 1 year, starting with the Global 7500 EBITDA contribution. To say the least, we are very pleased with our execution in 2021, having turned the program's negative EBITDA contribution into a positive one. We are also excited about where we are going to take these margins in the next few years, effectively doubling them from current levels by 2025. This will happen naturally as we deliver on our 20% unit cost reduction between the 50th and 100th aircraft as well as through the evolution of our pricing as our backlog transitions from launch customer pricing to market pricing over the '23 to '25 period. And we are in very good shape on both of these items. The cost reduction objective has already been realized in our inventory, so we expect clear year-over-year benefit in 2022 and in the first part of 2023. From a pricing standpoint, the orders we are adding to our backlog today are in line with our assumptions. Our second key EBITDA growth contributor, our cost reduction program, is also progressing extremely well. We are continuing on our plan to deliver $400 million in recurring savings by 2023. We launched this initiative in 2021 and saw strong results right out of the gate. EBITDA savings recognized in the first year amounted to $135 million. What this result does not show is that we launched many more initiatives that are not yet reflected in our bottom line, being mostly trapped in inventory. In fact, looking at 2022, we have already fully executed and completed the initiatives, which will take us to $250 million of savings. Moving to 2023, we continue to be on the right path towards $400 million in savings. About a year ago, we had approximately $75 million left to identify. And this year, we are launching the initiatives that will bring us to our objective. They are focused on operational excellence and productivity. We are transforming our production and service center floors, focusing on lean manufacturing and productivity and enhancement to our ways of working. I mentioned earlier the importance of backlog and the stability it brings to our day-to-day operations. We have been missing this stability for many years and haven't been able to focus on operational excellence as a result. Once again, the foundation we've set in 2021 is going to create opportunities going forward. These productivity initiatives will also help our service centers ramp up efficiently. JC covered this topic at length earlier. Our aftermarket revenues are increasing, and we have a detailed and clear plan to grow the business and reach $2 billion of revenues by 2025. What I like most about this business as a CFO is the stability that this revenue stream provides. Aftermarket revenues are far less sensitive to economic cycles and provide us with a scheduled and repeat customer business. Our expansion model, which is based on leasing facilities in strategic locations, also gives us the flexibility to expand our footprint using an ultra-low capital model with quick paybacks. This limits capital requirements and frees up more capital for debt repayment and strategic investments. The 3 strategic pillars I have just covered clearly put us in a great position to meaningfully grow our earnings over the next years. As we grow our earnings, we will be able to make significant strategic investment decisions, all while delivering strong free cash flow of more than $0.5 billion. We are building into our plan an annual capital allocation flexibility of up to $600 million, most of which is available for strategic investments or further balance sheet deleveraging. This flexibility is possible, in part, because our maintenance CapEx requirements are quite low. Our new Challenger 3500 aircraft will be assembled using the existing Challenger 350 assembly line, which is set up to accommodate far more aircraft than what is currently contemplated in our financial plan. For the Globals, we are in the process of building a state-of-the-art aircraft assembly facility at Pearson Airport in Mississauga, which will be completed by 2023. On the aftermarket side, I have just described our service center model, which is of low capital intensity. This means that as we get to 2024 and '25, most of our capital allocation envelope can be spent on strategic investments, which, when combined with key partnerships will allow us to fund the next generation of business jet within our planned envelope. You can expect to see us be smart with our investments, choose high return on invested capital projects and only do this with the right balance sheet. As for the rest of our cash flow bridge, interest costs are far more certain than 12 months ago. And with the debt reduction actions we took last week, we are already on path to a number lower than $500 million on a run rate basis, with more opportunities to improve from here. Working capital will be relatively neutral as we balance production rates with backlog length for each platform. And cash taxes will continue to be a tailwind for years to come. This results in significant cash flow generation of more than $500 million, which is available to deploy towards our capital structure in the longer term. We are excited about the capital allocation flexibility we're building. But for the next years, our priorities are clear: to ensure we have the right liquidity to operate in all business cycles and deploy excess cash flows towards deleveraging. We have seen a shift in both our annual and day-to-day liquidity needs. This is evidenced through our cash flow performance in 2021. The backlog we have built provides stability and predictability in our operations, and when it comes to liquidity, reduces intra-quarter working capital needs. Should we face a down market, our backlog will provide stability and predictability as we manage through it. This is why prudence in balancing production rates and backlog are key. Today, we believe that approximately $1.5 billion of liquidity can be adequate to both run our business and ensure protection in a weaker order environment. For the reasons I just explained, this is less than the $1.5 billion to $2 billion I communicated at last year's Investor Day. Today, we hold this on our balance sheet through cash on hand, but there will certainly be ways to optimize this over time. With our strong 2021 ending liquidity balance of $2.1 billion, we have already taken actions to accelerate deleveraging. And as I mentioned, deleveraging is the key priority over the next years. We will deploy excess capital towards debt repayment, and we will be opportunistic on refinancing going forward, as demonstrated by our recent $400 million call of our 2024 and 2025 notes. We will also strive to maintain a 24-plus month maturity runway, focusing on derisking our maturity profile and having flexibility as to when we look to enter markets. Liquidity optimization also presents an opportunity to reduce negative carry and further improve our interest costs. As we improve our credit metrics, we should be able to convert cash on balance sheet towards commercial banking-grade working capital facilities and deploy our cash towards further debt repayment. There is no doubt that our team will continue to be busy in 2022 and beyond in managing our maturity profile and reducing our overall leverage. So to conclude, I'd like to emphasize once more that the plan Bombardier launched last year is clearly on track. We improved our balance sheet faster than originally planned. We have a strong foundation in place to further derisk our business model. And finally, as we grow our earnings, we will focus on capital allocation flexibility within our operating plan, with a view, of course, to keep planning for the future and the next generation of game-changing aircraft. In short, Bombardier, as we know it today, is a more predictable and focused business. The team has developed a track record for making and meeting commitments, and we intend to keep it that way. We'll be turning today's program over to you shortly for the question period. So I'll pass it along to Francis to go over the logistics.

Thank you, Mark. We will now transition to the Q&A period of the event. Questions will be limited to sell-side analysts and institutional investors. I'd like to remind you that if you'd like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please use the number shown on screen, which is also available on the Investor Day 2022 page of our website. If you haven't already, please join the queue. We'll take a few minutes to get set up and get started shortly.

Thank you, Éric. Thank you, Bart. Thank you, JC. Thank you to all of you. And while they're setting up for the Q&A., I have an opportunity to discuss a topic that's very important to me as a woman in management, with [ Violeta ], we're going to talk about Women in Engineering and diversity and inclusion. Hello, [ Violeta ].

Hi, Eve.

Can you tell us about the particular affinity group that you're really involved in?

So the Diversity and Inclusion Group actually encourages the formation of these affinity groups. We want to share the knowledge, and we want to also share the experiences and celebrate the ethno-cultural diversity to be able to work in a more inclusive workplace. And the Women in Engineering is one of those affinity groups that we're actually so proud -- I'm proud to be part of.

What's the best part of that for you?

To me, I think it benefits the sharing of knowledge. I think it benefits also the company because we have a level of engagement, and we want to do more. We want to give back. Working with so many talented women, it's contagious. We want to be always working together and achieving the same goals.

So if you do have a message for young women or women about working at Bombardier as an engineer, what would that be?

You have the talent. You could -- if this is what you dream of, you can pursue it. I'm here. My mom was also an engineer. I follow her steps. And I could do it. I also come from a different background. So don't stop yourself even if it's a different background that you're coming from, if it's -- go for it.

What is your favorite thing about being a woman engineer?

Well, it has helped me because you have so much networking opportunities, mentoring as well included in the list of the projects that are ongoing at Bombardier. And also, we are educating other high school kids to be part of -- to be curious about this profession.

Well, thank you so much for spending some time with me today. And now I'm going to say thank you to all of you. Thank you for being with us, and have a great Q&A session.

So good morning to you all again. Please allow me, before we proceed with the question period, I would like to take and acknowledge what is happening in Ukraine. Bombardier is extremely saddened and concerned with the loss of life and the impact on the Ukrainian population. We will continue to monitor and follow up all guidelines and sanctions that are being put in place. In the interim, we will not pursue business with the sanctioned individual or entities. So again, please proceed now with the question period.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Fadi Chamoun from BMO.

My first question is on the strategic capital allocation that you earmarked in cash flow. I'm just kind of reading to this, you didn't come out, straightforward increasing cash flow guidance, but probably making more capital. Is there more specifics behind that? Is there a project you have in mind that you can maybe share with us a little bit what is this CapEx scheme towards at this stage?

Maybe I can -- good morning, Fadi, first of all. If I can start, and my colleague can pursue. Clearly, we feel extremely strong about our $1.5 billion EBITDA. We've come pretty good last year, but we feel even stronger this year about our objective. And I'm sure you saw the slide that was presented by Bart where he says our EBITDA, how our EBITDA will be transformed into cash. And I think we are creating with this, and the fact that we are reimbursing debt right now, the room to improve our free cash flow but also to create enough capability to continue to reimburse debt at first, but also when time comes and we are ready to do that, to invest more massively into potentially a new program or any other investment we may decide to do. So I think our plan is solid. We are in a great place right now, and we feel pretty strong that the $1.5 billion is achievable even -- more than ever, and that creates that flexibility for us. I don't know, Bart, if you want to...

Yes. Éric, that's well said. The only thing I would add -- and good morning, Fadi, is that the plan as it sits today as we achieve the $1.5 billion, there is a very significant free cash flow within that plan that we can put to work. So there's $500 million in the plan we see every year being able to go towards debt reduction, plus an additional $500 million to $600 million that can either then go directly into capital investment or also to further debt reduction. So we're going to have -- we are going to be in an absolutely great place as we execute on the plan. As Eric says, we don't have any specific plans for the capital today, but I can assure you that wherever it goes, it will be done with -- invested through the lens of high capital returns to deliver to shareholders.

Okay. Maybe just one follow-up on this. I mean, there's one aircraft in your fleet that is going to unroll the side and maybe more a candidate for a kind of clean sheet upgrade, and that's the Challenger 650. I'm wondering, I mean, Bombardier as a business company today doesn't have the same moat and the same kind of position in terms of capital that you had maybe, you can open in the past as much bigger diversified conglomerate. Is the plan more probably the next clean-sheet aircraft will be approached differently than you had in the past, basically funding it primarily on their own? Or is there -- is there a way that you can share with us how you are thinking about funding a major program like that in the future?

Yes. No, I think as -- thanks for the question again, Fadi, but we are building the capability capital-wise to be able to invest into a new program. And I think we have confidence right now. As I said on the last call we had, we are always monitoring what our competition is doing, but also and even more importantly, what the request from the customers are. And when you look at our portfolio today, our portfolio across the board, the 2 Challengers and the 3 Global types of program are selling extremely well. Yes, we are in a good market right now, but the product is well received. We have a refreshed portfolio and yet, there'll be a time where we will need to invest. And I think in terms of how we're going to do this, as we always did, there will be partnership. We haven't decided anything, as I said, but really the model will be guaranteeing us that capabilities are in place. Cash-wise, we're capable of going through this. I think we've demonstrated in the last 5 quarters that we are a completely different company than we've been in terms of our discipline on how we manage cash flow, how we are being prudent also on our decision. So that discipline will also translate to a new program and how we execute it.

The following question is from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins Capital Markets.

Congrats for the great execution achieved so far. Just looking at your 2025 objective. When we look in terms of delivery, I assume you still maintain a guidance of 130 to 135, which would be down versus the delivery you're targeting basically 2023. So any thoughts, whether you're expecting to lose market share? Or are you simply more conservative?

Yes. I think, Benoit, we are -- and thanks for your question, first of all. But we are being careful. I just mentioned to Fadi, that we are prudent in our approach. It's true that we're going into a pretty strong market right now. I think we guided this year for greater than 120, which in comparison is at least as a minimum, plus 7, if you net delivery in terms of Challenger and Global. So -- and next year, we already gave you a bit of a view that we should be around 15% to 20% more than this year. So clearly, we are really successful right now. But we always need to plan, and we always said that last year, that we can achieve the $1.5 billion with 135 airplanes. So if we have more, then we'll see that. But today, this is a long -- there's still 4 years to go through. And there's also the outside element that we don't control. I think proof is today with what's happening in Ukraine. So those are external elements that can always influence the market. But we feel pretty good. And that's why we have that robust discipline in our plan that despite those fluctuations that may happen from the outside, we'll be in a position to absorb them and still deliver the $1.5 billion of EBITDA. And I think, as you know, too, we are derisking our overall company in many sense. We are going to grow quite significantly our aftermarket business, and the aftermarket business will become approximately 27% of our total sales, making, again, our business even more and more predictable.

Éric, if I could -- sorry, Benoit. [Foreign Language] If I could maybe just add a couple of things. The 135 aircraft, 130, 135 in 2025, I think the way we could look at that as kind of like a baseline level go-forward, and that's why we've assumed that in 2025. Certainly, nothing near where a peak market would be or what would drive peak valuations for the company. So I would characterize it as conservative, but baseline, something that will allow us to achieve the $1.5 billion of EBITDA year-over-year with upside to that in a stronger order and demand market environment. So yes, I would consider it a bit conservative.

Okay. That's great color. And my follow-up question is related to aftermarket. You've been successful so far to grow the market share towards 39%, but any color to go beyond the 50% in 2025? And would you require some M&A in order to get beyond the 50% market share by 2025?

Thank you, Benoit, for the question. So I think we have to go back to what we've accomplished so far. In 2015, our market share was around 26%. So already, we've seen significant growth in our share at the current 39%. So as all things have been said so far today, we're being conservative in our approach to get to $2 billion by 2025. So right now, what I would tell you, Benoit, is we're sticking to this plan. But obviously, when you look at our Q4 performance that we just achieved, we are on a run rate already of $1.45 billion. So as you said, the business is doing really, really well. We're keeping with our plan right now. But obviously, we've got very strong confidence that we're going to achieve it.

The following question is from Kevin Chiang from CIBC.

A lot of great information. Maybe this question is for Bart. You're obviously tracking ahead on the 2025 targets. Great progress in 2021. I'm wondering, when we look at some other pure-play, cyclical manufacturing companies, we typically see leverage ratios below 2x, free cash flow conversion of 50%, cash flow conversion of 100% of EBITDA. Are those kind of targets that you think you need to get to as a pure-play manufacturing company? Or is there something different in your industry that maybe doesn't meet those metrics in 2025?

Yes. That's a great question, Kevin. Thanks for joining us here this morning. First, let me just say that we have a very, very high confidence now that we will achieve ultimately our financial targets, one of which as we set out last year at Investor Day was to get to approximately a 3x net leverage. I would say, just based on the progress we've made to date -- and as you know, we paid -- or we're paying down of $400 million of our notes much earlier than was anticipated in the plan. And we think there's probably more room to go on that. Certainly, there is the possibility that we could get to something below 3x net leverage by 2025. I would never say that I wouldn't aspire to that. I think I would put the company in a great position. So as we sit today, I think 3x or better is both achievable and what we'll aspire to, I think. So hopefully that answers your question today, Kevin.

No, that's helpful. And maybe just my follow-up. If you look at your bridge, you talked about pricing and inflation, I guess, knocking each other off or equalizing each other and so end up being a wash. Just wondering today or if you can speak to just how much conservatism is built into that assumption? It feels like just given how the market is, pricing should remain strong and you should be able to capture larger positive spread. So if you can just speak to maybe underlying conservatism around that official comment around your revenue bridge?

Yes. I can start and then you can chip in. So thanks, Kevin, for attending and for your question. Clearly, this is what we've observed last year for 2022 mainly, which was pretty much, as you just said and what we said ourselves on our earning call a few weeks ago, a bit of a wash. So our price increase basically, we had to face some inflation, and they basically equal each other. So that's the assumption we've been taking moving forward right now. And yes, there is good pricing, but we also, as you all know, a bit of an unpredictable view on what's going to happen with inflation. So that's an assumption. We can always debate those assumptions, but I guess that's a fair one right now since this is what we've been observing actually in 2022. Bart, I don't know if you want to help me with that.

Yes. The only thing I would maybe add to that, Kevin, is that the one aircraft in our fleet where we would definitely see clear pricing upside relative to inflation would be on the Global 7500. Remember that launch pricing is obviously always much lower than when we get to full market pricing. We're achieving that now. And so that, I think, does provide us some upside. But the remaining is a wash, that's how we would view it.

The following question is from Konark Gupta from Scotiabank.

So my first question, I think, Éric, you mentioned you're following the Ukraine situation closely, obviously, and lots going on there. I just wanted to understand better in terms of your exposure to Russia, Ukraine? Can you elaborate a little bit what was in your production plan this year and next year as well as backlog?

So thanks, Konark, for attending and for your question, too. I think as I just mentioned, yes, we do have -- Bombardier has always been the leader, I would say, in Russia and CIS for new business jet, clearly. But I think, as I said earlier, of course, we'll respect any sanction that are imposed and we'll follow them very carefully right now. CIS and Russia has always been representing probably a few averages about 6% of our deliveries. So -- and this is a little bit why we could see maybe increased rate further. But I think what we're trying to manage today is take into account that things like Ukraine may happen. And that we have -- we'll have a little bump in the road, but our plan is solid enough so that we can take those bumps in the road and still deliver the $1.5 billion that we've committed. So yes, it's 6%, but I believe market has been extremely strong, as you know, in North America and Europe so far since last year. And we do believe that if there is that bump in the road, and it's happening right now for us for that market, we'll follow what we have to do -- we'll do what we have to do, but we believe strongly that there could be other markets also there to secure. And this is why it's important to continue to build backlog be careful about the rate so that we can absorb those shock, if any other.

That's great. And my follow-up is on CapEx, perhaps for Bart. So if I look at your free cash flow bridge in 2025, Bart, I think you're converting EBITDA of $1.5 billion to $500 million plus million free cash, and that assumes up to, I think, $600 million of capital allocation. Last year, I think when you guys talked about your sort of capital planning, I think you were saying about $200 million plus/minus annually in terms of CapEx. And like for this year, it's kind of between $200 million, $300 million. I'm just kind of wondering, like, the market has been pretty solid for you guys last year, and maybe that gives you a little bit more cushion in cash flow and liquidity. What's the right kind of CapEx, call it, envelop for any given year? Like considering, obviously, you are in a business jet manufacturing industry and you probably still have to continue to develop new products or modify products to remain competitive. So what's a good average CapEx that you kind of foresee?

Yes, I can give a little bit of math on that, and good morning, Konark. So if you think of it in terms of what's the baseline sort of required CapEx for the company, this would be just sustaining CapEx to run the business, keep the plants in perfect running condition, et cetera, et cetera. For us, that's only about $100 million. Going up to $200 million to $300 million, that -- those incremental dollars are really focused on strategic investments. Today, the Pearson facility, to build that state-of-the-art facility is the main use of that incremental CapEx, and that's why we've adjusted to $200 million to $300 million this year. But that facility, of course, will come online in '23. So we'll start to see CapEx spend on Pearson decline after '22. Going forward, what we've said in the bridge is that including the maintenance CapEx, we'll have about $600 million available once we get to $1.5 billion. So if we look at our depreciation and amortization, that's about $450 million a year. If you think of a company replacing itself, refreshing itself, keeping itself very viable, building the world's greatest best aircraft and delivering them to the market, it's the $100 million plus the $450 million approximately, so call it, $500 million to $600 million on a sustaining basis permanently. Today, we don't need to spend that much because we have a very, very refreshed fleet. Things are up to date. We've got the flagship 7500 that was clean-sheeted, and the rest of our fleet has been updated as well. So longer term, though, hopefully, that gives you some guidance on the numbers.

The following question is from Stephen Trent from Citi.

Just a quick one, and apologies if I missed the answer on this, but you mentioned in the coming years that you'd be shifting somewhat to deliveries of larger gauge aircraft versus what had been the case in 2021. So any high-level view what this means for the expected flow of new order deposits and predelivery payments going forward?

Maybe I can start, and Bart, you can fill in. But Clearly, with being -- strength in both market segments, we're comping in right now, large and medium, both also achieving our cash flow target type of progress payment we were looking for. I think our company robustness right now, I think, is recognized by our customer so we are getting the activity level that we -- that are sustaining the rate in our plan right now across the board. I have also to mention that clearly, the 3500 was what I call internally a smart investment within the capital envelope that we just mentioned. And the sales on that airplane have been amazing since we just launched early September -- mid-September last year. So I would say across the board right now, I don't see any weakness. I see just strength on all platforms and clearly, giving us all the latitude we need. But clearly, the cash flow has also been pretty good in terms of the progress payment across the board, too. Bart?

Yes, Stephen, just to build a little bit on that. I think you recognize that in the past, we've had a fair amount of, I'll call it, working capital variability intra-quarter. Éric set out for us as one of our core strategic objectives last year to build backlog across all of our platforms. And the company has done an exceptional job in doing that. What that's allowed us to do by having that backlog is obviously be more direct on having firm pricing, good discussions with our customers, more payments coming in at higher levels earlier on in the build cycle. And today, if we look at our working capital usage on an intra-quarter basis, it's dropped to almost nil.

Almost nothing.

Almost nothing. And our focus is to try and maintain that as we move forward to basically match deposits with inventory build. What that will allow us to do over the long term is be in absolute fantastic position to absorb any market shocks that might come along and as well, to perhaps free up some of that liquidity on the balance sheet to apply it to further debt repayment or strategic investment. So we're in a great place today and look forward to maintaining that through time.

Really appreciate that. And just my quick follow-up, just to -- as a follow-up to what the gentleman had asked earlier. Russia kind of 6% of deliveries, do you guys have any meaningful kind of supply exposure to any entities in the Russian Federation?

No. Right now, yes, sales, I mentioned, 6% on average, historically, our delivery. But in terms of supply chain, we don't.

The following question is from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets.

So just thinking about the growth in the aftermarket business a little bit. I think at the quarter, you mentioned that about 20% of the business was in modifications and upgrades. And just some thoughts, if you wouldn't mind, as we start to grow, some of your competitors maybe have a higher proportion of modifications and upgrades, probably more around the 1/3 of total revenues. So I'm kind of curious about how you feel about that mix as you grow the business, how the footprint changes and even how some of the product development you've done feeds back into the existing fleet. And again, thinking about what that does for margins because historically, modifications have had higher margins than, say, the maintenance business.

Thank you, Chris, for the question. So the first thing in this, obviously, is when we look at the predictability of our business, the fact that 80% of what we intend to capture is based on either regulations on calendar, on flight hours, it makes it a very predictable revenue base as we move forward. Now that's not to say that the upgrade side isn't interesting for us. And we've shown through some of the latest announcements we've made in certified preowned, for example, that we're extremely interested by that side as well. You said it yourself, Bombardier, as an OEM is extremely well positioned to attack this segment. We've invested significantly in aftermarket products over the last few years, and we do have a substantial size of aftermarket products that are actually exclusive to us. So to answer your question, yes, we're going to be completely focused on this. But obviously, in the greater scheme of things, our focus on scheduled inspection, getting airplanes flying is very important for us because that's extremely predictable as we move forward.

I think if I may, JC and Chris, elaborate a bit, I think we've announced -- Jean-Christophe announced last year a certified preowned program, and it's been extremely successful. So we started that program last year, bringing airplanes that have been in service for years. And you know that the OEM is uniquely placed to enhance a preowned experience actually in doing things that we can do, but that no other people can sometimes. And we've been very successful, and we believe in that market. So that's part of our growth plan this year and next year and over the next few years, but we are extremely encouraged by the early results of that program.

The following question is from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

I'd like to go back to the free cash flow bridge on your Slide #47, where you go from $1.5 billion in EBITDA down to the $500 million cash flow. I mean neither of those 2 bookends have changed. And just curious what this chart looked like yesterday. What was that $600 million, given that there was no real change in the 2 bookends, what was filling in that space in that strategic capital allocation part of that chart yesterday?

Yes. Good morning, Walter, and thanks for the question. Last year, when we had our Investor Day, we were literally in month 1 of becoming a pure-play business aviation company. We knew very clearly what the key levers we're going to be to grow our revenues and grow our EBITDA. We've commented on those again here today, so I won't reiterate those. But what was not clear at that time was what the pace of recovery was going to be in the market. It was very unpredictable. We were just coming out of a COVID world. So we didn't build a space into that $1.5 billion in the last go-around to show that we thought we were going to have strategic capital to invest. For us today, with having built out our backlog, having a very clear line of sight to 2022, '23 and beyond now and full year into executing on all of our key strategies and the fact that our interest costs are now much, much more certain, and they've come down significantly. We started with annual interest expense in the range of $750 million. We brought it down to now, on a run rate basis, less than $500 million. All of those things combined give us a very, very high level of confidence that we will have that $500 million to $600 million available in 2025 to make those strategic investments. So it's really just a bit of the passage of time and having a much more certain environment for ourselves.

Okay. And just turning to the demand environment. Obviously, there's been a significant increase, one might argue structural increase in the level of demand, but much of your backlog had already been priced in, in contract. So arguably, you haven't really been yet able to grasp the full positive impact of that demand increase. When do you expect that to be fully realized? And has that demand environment allowed you to perhaps change the way you contract now, perhaps by giving you some improved downside risk protection if we go to a downturn in there's cancellations. Can you look for getting cash earlier because there is that, arguably, the significant demand out there? Does it give you flexibility and some authority to be able to make changes in your favor?

Yes, Walter, I'll maybe start. Certainly, you've hit the nail on the head. As we've seen a strong new order activity happening and our backlog has been building up, we've been able to modify terms to some degree to provide us further protection in a downside market, certainly, whether it be liquidated damages and/or requesting higher payments upfront and a more even payment environment through the build cycle of the aircraft. And that's why our intra-quarter and intra-month liquidity needs have dropped dramatically. So yes, I would say we're in a much more resilient place to any sort of downturn. The backlog is in great shape, and we're essentially sold out in 2022. We're working our way quickly through '23. We already have a couple of platforms that are sold out for that year. So all of those things have allowed us to be proactive on pricing, on contractual terms and on payment terms, and we're very pleased with where we're at.

Yes. If I may, Bart, and thanks, Walter, for -- good morning -- for the question here. But clearly, also, we talk about the backlog and its length, but I think what is amazing also on our backlog right now is the quality of it. First of all, the backlog is well diversified geographically, but also the backlog is well -- across our platform. And when we look at our market, I think it's worth to mention. The number of billionaire went from about 2,200 in '13 to about 3,002 this year, in 2020, 2 years ago. So that's been increasing, making more potential candidate. But I think our portfolio is, first of all, we have a very loyal customer base. People that are buying Bombardier, the majority of them, not to say all of them, but the big majority of them are coming back to us when they decide to replace their airplane. I think we're offering a superior product in terms of performance, in terms of quality of our interior. And the presence that JC is building also of having an international presence. So geographically, type of customer, too, high-net-worth individual, balanced with company, balanced with fleet operator. So we are well diversified, making us even more robust moving forward.

The following question is from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

Bart, so in the hypothetical scenario where in 2025, you are deciding you do not need to invest in a new airplane, and so CapEx is close to maintenance CapEx and that strategic capital allocation piece of the bridge is going to debt reduction. And given that debt reduction does not fit into the classic definition of free cash flow, cash from ops minus CapEx. In that scenario, would you expect to be reporting 2025 free cash flow closer to the high single-digit hundreds of millions than the mid-single-digit hundreds of millions?

Clearly, yes. That's absolutely the right way to look at it. The math speaks for itself, and we have confidence in achieving those numbers. So if we don't have to deploy that capital into other strategic investments, you're absolutely right in terms of the total dollars, Noah. You've got it correct.

Got it. And then adding that piece, at the Investor Day last year, the discussion was closer to maintenance CapEx in the out years. And I believe I even remember you specifying that, that was because you didn't see the need to, in the near term, reinvest in what's a strong portfolio. Has something changed, whether it's what Gulfstream has announced with their product set or what your customers are telling you? Or is the addition of that into the bridge more purely that you just now have more financial flexibility?

I think I may start, Bart. First of all, the announcement that were made by our competitor right now have not had any impact on how we are foreseeing things. The announcements were made. And clearly, we still believe today that we have the right portfolio to compete very strongly. And we are. Actually, I got that -- this being proven on a daily basis right now with everything going on and the order book filling very nicely. So we got the right portfolio today, but you're absolutely right. And we are, as I said earlier, monitoring what our competitors are doing, what technology also are being out there because we have all to realize that when we make a decision, a capital allocation to a new program, this is usually for a 30-, 40-year horizon. So we need to make sure we have the right technology on board so that we design a perfect airplane. And that's always what -- if you look at our portfolio today, that's what Bombardier has been doing. Our 7500, the engine was designed for that. The Challenger 3500, the engine was also designed for that. So those technology choice also are important in the mix and in the timing. But the criteria number one is what do the customers expect? And we're out there. As I said, the reception is great today. We have idea, the people that works on it all the time. We are testing those ideas with customers. So far, we don't have any announcement to make, but the good news is with what we have in front of us and the financial strength that we're building, we're going to have that flexibility of capital allocation in a few years from now.

The following question is from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank Financial.

Just a question on the aftermarket. I mean, the target to get to kind of 50% share of your active fleet. I'm just wondering if you can describe in a little bit of detail what the -- how that compares to the competitors. I mean, is this something that is in line with the key competitors? Or is this more aggressive than maybe some of them have?

Thank you, Cameron. Well, as mentioned before on the call, it's a conservative number for us, and we like it this way in our plan. I think what we have to look at is really the progress towards that objective. You saw us navigate through the pandemic very, very nicely. Despite the lower flying hours, we're able to protect the business. And then as it recovered, we really grew back to our trajectory towards $2 billion. So as I've mentioned before, the run rate right now is very, very nice. 50% is a conservative number if you look at the industry in general, and we have all the investments that are currently taking place to get us to that level.

Okay. No, that's helpful. And apologies for asking kind of another short-term question here. But obviously, with the news this morning, one of the concerns that I've heard is really around, I guess, sort of the impact on titanium supply and perhaps pricing for the broader aerospace industry. I'm just wondering if you can talk a little bit about your exposure on titanium, your supply? And do you see any significant risks to production rates resulting from what's happened today?

So I've got a team, of course, that have been looking at it because what's happening today was in the air as we can say for a while. And we don't foresee major impact on our supply chain. We may have to do a couple of move left and right. But also on pricing, those commodity, most of the time, have contracts that are protecting us on a long-term basis -- on a longer-term basis. So we feel pretty good about how we are being protected, hedged, on those type of contracts of different commodity that may be seeing a little bit of stress over the next coming days.

Our last question is from Tim James from TD Securities.

Just want to return to the kind of 2025 CapEx and free cash flow dynamic. Should we interpret the decision to plan for $600 million CapEx in 2025, while leverage remains around 3x, as an indicator that you are comfortable with leverage at that 3x level? Is your preference still to deleverage further beyond that, but the importance of higher strategic CapEx has just taken a step up, and therefore, you are moving a greater portion of the operating cash flow towards that use?

Tim, great question. So I think the way to think about it is that through the strength of our strategic plan and the fact that we're moving at a pace that's even quicker than what we'd anticipated when we launched this journey last year, that we now have a very high degree of confidence in achieving the plan. So that's first and foremost. The second piece then is with the achievement of that plan, we now have a very high degree of confidence that we will have capital flexibility built within the plan of up to $500 million to $600 million a year. We have not made any statements that we have a program to spend those dollars on or that they'll go to something else other than debt repayment. What it does mean though is that if you think about it in terms of the total cash available to us to both pay down debt and to make strategic investments, it's in those very high single digits, hundreds of millions, approaching $1 billion, so -- per annum. So that's the kind of flexibility we're talking about. As Éric was saying, the market demands, the technology, the ability to invest and continue to grow and sustain our fleet and keep it in a world-class position, those are decisions that will come once he's very clear on what the next steps are. But as we sit today, there's no decisions on that front.

That's helpful. And my follow-up question. I just want to ask more about the -- your expectations for future product mix. If we -- and again, I don't -- I realize we don't know explicitly the mix in your current backlog between Challengers and Globals, but if you could just talk directionally, if you look out over the next 3 to 4 years, given your customer base dynamics -- and you've got a great slide that kind of breaks that down for us. Given those dynamics, given what you're seeing in the overall industry and environment, do you have any expectations for greater backlog growth or more orders coming in for Challengers versus Globals over the next 3 or 4 years? Or do you feel fairly confident that the demand for both will be equal? Just trying to sort of think forward to what your backlog might look like in a couple of years?

I think we do foresee, when we look at both markets. As you know, we're pretty strong in both large and medium. I think today, we see a nice balance. It's about 60% Global and 40% Challenger. We feel our assumption is going to stay about those proportion over the course of the next few years. You're seeing this year an increase coming faster, probably reflecting the current market environment on the Challenger. This is just a question that we can increase the output faster with the supply chain, of course, supporting us on this platform. But clearly, the momentum is on both segments, and we are foreseeing proportion to stay about the 60-40 that I just mentioned.

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer question. I will now hand it over to Éric Martel for closing comments.

Okay. First of all, I want to thank everybody, my team also for putting this event together, and also all of you attending this morning and taking the time to listen to our message. I think we came a long way in the last year. A year ago, we're sitting together only 1 month after completing our restructuring. And I think 1 thing that I'm extremely pleased with the team here is just what happened. We just delivered actually at aerospace 5 great quarter in a row, beating expectations and delivering on our promises. And I can tell you that this management team is committed to that. And the great news, too, is that predictability that we have ahead of us makes a big difference also in us being able to carry the message we are today and being very confident also about our 2025 commitment more and more over the years. So we're in a great place. We are confident in reaching the $1.5 billion EBITDA. Things are under control right now. And the predictable business makes it great. I think we're building also flexibility. We want to reimburse that debt, come to a leverage ratio that is 3x or lower, as Bart said earlier. And we are feeling very strong and also building the capability of reinvesting in our business. It's going to be a conversation of capital allocation within my Executive Committee, but also with our Board, but we're going to remain extremely disciplined in our approach. So again, thanks for attending the event this morning, Investor Day, and looking forward to meet all of you over the course of next year. Thank you.