Bonava AB (publ) (BONAVB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Bonava's Year-End Report for 2023. I'm back, and my name is Anna Falck Fyhrlund, and I'm Head of Investor Relations here at Bonava. It has been a busy quarter. And here with me to take you through the highlights, I have our CEO, Peter Wallin, and an extra welcome to our new interim CFO, Lars Ingman. They will go through the report. And after that, we will open up for questions. And you can already now start to type in your question, if you wish to ask them online, and you will also be able to ask them through the phone. And with that short introduction, I leave the word over to you, Peter.

Thank you very much, Anna, and great to have you back. And also great to be here together with Lars. So almost 3 weeks now as the CFO in Bonava. We are very happy to guide you through the main points in the report, and just starting off with the main highlights here, we have increased the sale to consumers year-over-year in the consumer part. And we are seeing a gradual stabilization of market activities picking up. There are coming more people to the viewings. There are more searches on the internet, and there are more reservations and then consequently sales. So it's a little bit early to see that we are seeing the change in the turn in the market. But clearly, the market has stabilized and the signs of an improvement is much more concrete now than before. If we look on the strongest markets, it is Berlin, a very important market to Bonava, as you know. Dortmund and Cologne and Riga is also continues to be very strong. Then, if we look into the number parts, we are reporting an underlying gross margin of 13.6 and that is, of course, impacted by some selective price reductions. We have to be extremely active in the market and very much focused on selling, controlling cash flow and making sure that we're not paying up too much capital. We are also seeing increasing impacts of all the measures that we have taken to reduce costs. And the combined indirect and S&A costs is reduced by 16% in the quarter. And these effects will gradually pick up, and we will see a full-year impact from Jan 1 '25. Lars will come more into those numbers. We have a strong cash flow in the quarter. Of course, the operating cash flow is improving. But also then the proceeds from the sale of St. Pete that we talked about in conjunction with the Q3 report is reported now in the fourth quarter, thus creating a cash flow of close to SEK 1 billion. We have significantly on the back of this cash flow then reduced net debt from the third quarter number by SEK 1.3 billion. Lars will dig into that -- those effects. And just before Christmas, just before Santa Claus came to us, we also presented the financing package that will sort of lay the foundation for Bonava going into taking on an improving market. And also in conjunction with the report, we have updated our financial targets to clarify our ambitions. So just spending a few minutes on the financing package. It consists of 3 integrated parts. So the first part is the shareholder part, and we're going to have an equity issue of SEK 1 billion, and this equity issue is guaranteed and underwritten by our main shareholders. The second part is the bank part. It's an extension of the credit facilities by 3 years from March '24 until March '27. And the total credit volume is SEK 4.5 billion, and we have agreed the heads of terms with the banks. And the third and last important steps of this is the bondholders, the extension of the outstanding SEK 1.2 billion in bonds until March '27. And here, we have achieved the approvals, as you also saw in a separate press release. So all in all, these 3 steps ties together. And a lot of things are going to happen after this report. So let me walk you through the dates. So today is the Q4. After the close of the market tomorrow, we're going to complete -- make public the complete terms and conditions of the rights issue. We then have called and summoned to an extraordinary general meeting on Wednesday next week, on the 7th, and we will publish the prospectus on the 9th of Feb. Then the subscription period will start on the 13th until the 22nd of Feb, and we will announce the final outcome of the rights issue on February 29. So all in all, this will be wrapped up in the beginning of March. Then we will hold the Annual General Meeting on April 10 and then the first quarter result. We will be standing here again on April 24. And I'm sure that time will run very quickly until we get to April. Spending a few moments on the financial targets. We earlier have released the EBIT margin from 2026 of being at 10% or higher. And I think this is a very good target to have to aim for and also target which we really want to beat. And it's really good to relate this to the underlying profitability in the projects and the new investment decisions. So it's a very good target that we can both use publicly, like we're doing on the calls like this, but also internally. So it's a very strong redline through the organization. Then, if you look on the -- further to the right-hand side, the dividend policy of the 40% of net income over time is very important to keep for us. But as you know, as we have talked about in the financing package, we are -- the Board has not proposed any dividend for 2023. And on the new financing package, there are restrictions to leave dividends over the next coming years. And then the middle part, the return on equity target is a new target, and we want to achieve 15% or higher. And this is to give you an indication of where we are aiming to give you as shareholders an interest and in potential shareholders of Bonava. And of course, we will not be there short term. We will need to ramp up the business volume and profitability in Bonava. But this is very important to give you both an indication of where we will do on a size basis given the size of equity and the size of the Bonava as a group and also to assure you that we will create values going forward. These 3 points rests upon a framework, a financial framework to both indicate what we are looking internally and also how we are managing risks in the company. So firstly, a new target, which we called a net asset value compared to the net debt. So the net debt is not to exceed the net project assets, and that means in other terms that we are showing really clearly that indebtedness should be linked to the project volume and not to investments into the building rights. The second part of it is to remain and retain the equity-to-asset ratio target of 30% or higher. And as you know, this target will fluctuate over the quarters of the year. It's strongest in Q4 and weakest in Q3 when we have high business volume and not have reported and recognized the ongoing projects that we're handing over in the fourth quarter. And that volume in the fourth quarter is proportionately quite big. Finally, on my first section here, let me just show 2 very nice projects that we have started here, one project in Berlin, Parkstadt Karlshorst and then Ropažu, the Phase 3 in Riga. So these 2 constitutes 220 homes for consumers, and there is a large interest, and there is a very promising sales in these projects. With that, Lars, please take the stage.

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone. I will now try to take you through the more detail of the Q4 report. Let's start with this one. And this is about the recognized unit during Q4. In the Q3 report, we mentioned that the completions will be 1,651. And as you can see, the completion in the quarter 4 was 1,579, and of which 217 were unsold. But you can also see that we have reduced the number of previously unsold and now recognized with 83. So in total, the recognized units during Q4 was 1,444, which actually, if we count that together, the 1,444 units ending up with a net sales of around SEK 5 billion. And you can see, if you go down on the gross profit, it's a certain point -- or the gross margin, we should put it like, 13.5% versus the 10.3% and the 10.3% is not fully comparable with the 13.5%, so a little bit higher. And if we could continue further on, you can see that the selling and admin expenses is down with around SEK 20 million. And the reason for that is, of course, the ongoing cost-saving program that was announced last year. And we continue going down on the operating profit in total, SEK 427 million versus the versus the SEK 295 million, which is then up with around -- is it 45% up? And what we can see in the negative side, if it was good on the EBITDA, of course, the higher interest of the financial items, SEK 132 million versus SEK 76 million last year. And that's, of course, to do with the underlying market rates going up compared with last year, around double then from 2% to 4%. So in total, a good result, SEK 294 million before tax compared with last year SEK 219 million. So that's the summary of the P&L. Going to the next slide. This is -- Peter mentioned this one, and it was about that we are having the cost saving programs, which is we have established that we should save, and gross savings of about SEK 1 billion. And we are -- have been getting close to SEK 300 million on that one. And until the end of 2004 (sic) [ 2024 ], we will have full effect of this program, so there's more to come. Next page is, again, talking about the completion. And as you can see on the left side, you have the completion, 1,035, which is the actual Q4. And you see the completion coming in the next quarter until Q3 '25 and later. And what we can see here is everybody can see that it's -- we have 430 coming in the next quarter with a sales rate of around half of that. And you can see how it's going to continue during the next coming quarters. And then, if we continue to the next slide, that's -- this is the one illustrating the same, but for the investor market, and that's looked quite different. As you can see, all of it is sold to the investors. So let's go, continue. And then we go into the business units, and we start, as always, with the main market or the biggest market, it's Germany with 55% of the total net sales. And here, we can see that the number of recognized units is down compared with last year and subsequently also the net sales. But as also you can see, it's good, stable gross margin going up to 14.8% versus the 14.9% last year. Selling and expense is stable, while the operating profit is also stable with Q4 last year, and the operating margin is actually a little bit stronger. And the -- one of the reasons we have this strong market was a project in Germany with a healthy margin that was -- sorry, recognized. Continue then with our next market, it's Sweden. As you see, the low volume, a little bit lower than last year. It's 302 compared with the 278. And the net sales is then SEK 858 million, which is -- it's -- yes, it's compared with that one. And if you look on the gross margin, you have a extremely high gross margin improvement to 11.5% versus minus 4.9%, which, of course, is -- and the 4.9% last year is due to some one-off costs during that year. So if you compare 11.5% is more -- slightly the same gross margin, a little bit lower, 1% better this year actually. Also, the selling and expense here is down, which is, as I said -- mentioned earlier is related to the fact that we have in this cost reduction program going on. And the operating profit is SEK 60 million versus SEK 85 million -- or SEK 80 million, sorry. But of course, that's also -- the SEK 80 million last year is not as bad, that is 0.10 -- minus -- sorry 10.6%. It's -- basically, last year, it was around 5% the operating margin or the EBITDA margin. So let's move to the next business unit, that's Finland. And in Finland, we also have a little bit lower recognized volumes during the period, which actually reduced the net sales, but we have a stable and good gross margin and a stable and slightly lower selling expense and good operating margin out from that. So we can see here that our all efforts made in the last year to get a good grip of the Finnish business are now turning out in the figures. So we clearly see a nice improvement in the figures for Finland this year. And then next is then the final market, it's the Baltics. And in Baltics, we also have a little bit lower recognized units, as you can see, and subsequently, net sales is down. The gross margin is still on a healthy margin of 15.5%, a little bit higher last year of 18.7%, but still a good margin and a stable operating profit. And we have these 2 major business-to-management project that was completed during the year. And we also can see that the started units, it's up quite significantly in the market -- or in the Baltic market this period. So that was the -- all the units. And let's look on the balance sheet from the asset side. And as you can see here from the Q4 '22, the balance sheet is reducing with SEK 6.5 billion to the SEK 19.5 billion, which, of course, have to do with -- or the primary reason for this is divestment of the operation in St. Petersburg and divestment also in Norway. And, of course, as you can see here, the ongoing housing project is also making the decrease of the balance sheet with this SEK 6.5 billion. Going on to the next one, next page. Talking about long term the financing package that Peter was -- also mentioned. And today, at the year-end, we have facilities of totally SEK 7.1 billion. And you can see the composition here between RCF and bond and bilateral loans with banks. And per year-end, we have a utilization of around SEK 5 billion, and unutilized was then around SEK 2 billion, SEK 2.2 billion. And in the days, as mentioned also in the report, we're having discussions -- we don't have a discussion, we are in agreement with the banks about a new package, financing package coming back to that. And going forward to the cash flow, which is -- as we have a strong cash flow, as you can see here from the cash flow before financing was compared -- was SEK 940 million compared with the last year, then we have a minus, and this is, of course, driven by strong cash flow from the operating activities, but also sale of St. Petersburg operation and the Norwegian operation. And on the next slide, it's a net debt basically. And here you can see -- also corresponding to the asset side, you can see that the net debt is going down from the Q4 '22 with around SEK 2.3 billion, which is also related to the better cash flow coming from the activities or the operation and also from the divestment in St. Petersburg and Norway. Next one is then, and this is the -- the next one is actually the building rights portfolio, and you can see that the -- on the right side, you can see the building rights portfolio, the value in the balance sheet. And you can see how it's distributed between the different units; Germany, Sweden, Finland and Baltics. And also on the lower part of the slide, you can see that we have the number of building rights, which is quite similar or in the same range from Q4 until Q4 '23. One small remark is the fact that we have 700 more building rights in Sweden, and that is after making a review here in Sweden of what we can do with our building rights. We were able to see or could locate that we have -- we identified that we have to build 700 more units without any investment. So that increased the land bank with this 700. And the next slide is about how we manage this portfolio. And if we look on the total bank then, of the 28,000, we see -- we estimate that we will start around 40% of the land bank will be used for production during the next until '27 and of that is our estimation to have multifamily houses of 88% and single-family houses of 12%, but with this said, of course, we are always adjusted to the mix, whatever is happening on the market. So we changed if needed, we listen to the market, and we change accordingly. Thank you, Peter. Over to you.

Thank you, Lars. Great presentation, and getting to know a group of this size in this short period of time with everything happening at the same time. So thank you very much. So wrapping up what we have talked about, of course, we are quite humble to be going through this challenging market that we have been going through. It's also very gratifying to see that the actions that we have taken over a long period of time is bearing fruit. So our main focus now is to start the profitable projects and with control over the cash flow. That is sort of leaning forward. And of course, as you can see from the graphs that Lars have been sort of analyzing together with you now, you can see that the volumes will be lower in '24, but we feel that with the cost reductions that we have taken and with the financing package in place, we are sort of aiming for the future, and we are sort of standing with a firm, strong footing to take on the opportunities that will arise. And the activity base we see in the market is -- as we have stated, is picking up and stabilizing. And it's much more concrete signs now. But we are not at all saying that '24 will be an easy ride. We are still taking measures to be prepared to take on a challenging market in '24. As I've stated, we have a strong foundation, and now, we are building forward for the future. So thank you very much. And Anna, I think there is the next section now.

Yes. So now we will open up for questions. [Operator Instructions]. And before I wait to see if there are any questions, I will start with one, and maybe Lars, you can answer this one. We have been talking a lot about strengthening cash flow. Could you elaborate a bit more?

Yes. I mean it's very important to have this strong cash flow. And what we see in the last quarter is extremely improvement in the cash flow, and that's based on stronger cash flow in the operating of the company. But we also, of course, have this cash we get from the sales of the St. Petersburg operation and the Norway operation. So in total, a strong cash flow.

And I think we have a question through the phone. So we will let that one go through.

The next question comes from Jan Ihrfelt from Kepler Cheuvreux.

I have 3 questions, starting off with the comments you made on the market, could you put a little bit more flavor on that, what kind of signs you're seeing that gives you hope for, let's say, late '24 and '25?

Okay. Jan, as we've stated, the activity level is the combined function of viewings, more people on the viewings. We also have a very advanced sort of sales channels through the digital channel. So we can read and measure the leads in real time, actually. So the number of clicks and searches on new homes is gradually increasing. And then, of course, that transpires into reservations and bookings and then sales. So if you look into '23 and the comparison with the background of '22, you have seen a gradual pickup during the year with positive numbers. So actually, if you look into the consumer element in Germany, they started the year in a very negative territory, and they ended up on almost the same level as in '22, just showing sort of the pickup over the years. And we are also seeing a good -- reasonably good start of 2024 on -- of the same side. And as we have stated before, Germany and Baltics is sort of driving force. They have been more stable, they are more stable, and they are also picking up speed. But then, Sweden, Finland has been more of a challenge. But also here, we are seeing sales picking up and interest picking up. So it's -- as we said, it's stabilizing and promising, but we will wait until we see that it's a firm turnaround in the market. And as you know, Jan, it's a combination also what is happening with rate of inflation and the central banks and rate cuts, et cetera.

And you judge that the start of the year has been stronger than the fourth quarter.

The start of the year, you have to compare the same period of the year because the seasonability in the sales is so different. So January is typically a very low volume month even in a good year. So if you compare it to January last year, it is much stronger. Yes.

Second question, your 10% operating margin target in 2026, it takes 2 years to construct apartments more or less, give or take. Is that meaning -- do I conclude -- draw the right conclusion that the starts you're going to have in 2024 already have 10% operating margin according to your plans?

Well, things in an operating business is moving. So there is a huge work behind it. So it's just -- you can't just put in the projects and it sorts itself out. That would be my dream in that case. So it's a lot of hard work. The target is tough, and it should be tough, but it's reachable.

Okay. Third question, last question, maybe a little bit into details, but other operate -- the other segment in your segment reporting shows a negative of SEK 73 million. What would that figure be if you withdraw the Danish operations and operations under -- that's going to be divested?

The Danish is divested, so the Danish part that rests with other is a negative number for the organization that we are keeping, and the provisions were made in conjunction with exiting the Danish business. We have provided for when we'll let people go on severance, but the run rate of keeping the organizations that -- which is principally dealing with the warranties and guarantees that we have made on the completed stock, that is, comes with a negative cost. But another way to turn it, if you look on the group of Bonava, what is the run rate, it's probably around SEK 100 million per year, if that is the number you're looking for.

Yes. That's what I was looking for.

Thank you, Jan. And I think we have another one on the call. So please let that one through.

The next question comes from Johan Hellekant from SvD.

[Foreign Language].

We're on the English conference call. Perhaps we can take a Swedish call afterwards. Whether you're asking in English, that I don't know.

Well, it's about the rents, the Riksbank is keeping its -- what you say [Foreign Language] at the same level as before, and this will remain, but there is an opening for a lowering later this -- later before end of half year, but just an opening in case of better inflation figures. Could you tell a little bit about how the market -- how about this rent situation is -- report like how this is?

How it impacts the consumers?

Affecting your figures in Sweden and your building operations in Sweden and your customers in Sweden.

Absolutely. And thank you very much for the question. And sorry for pressing you into the English language, but it's -- when we are -- when we have an agreement in an English conference call, it's -- that's it. And we can come back to you. But answering very quickly your question, we see the same trends for the central banks everywhere. And if you look into October last year, that was a bottom month in terms of high rate of inflation, high interest rates. And also, if you look into the forward rates, i.e., the expectation of the interest rate long term was very high. Since October, the long-term interest rates have dropped 130 basis points, 1.3 percentage point. And of course, that is one the reasons why we are talking about a gradual pickup in the market. This is a highly interest-sensitive market and highly interest-sensitive business. So, of course, the consumers, when they find what kind of level should they assume when they calculate the cost that they can carry for changing, buying a new home, bigger home, et cetera, that's extremely important. And laying the foundation for this is -- has been really important. And I think the report that came now during the call actually that you referred to, that sort of -- that stabilizes and creates an even bigger platform for future interest rates reduction from the central bank. So it underpins the expectation of the lower interest rates that we have already started to see in the swap rate. So that's going to -- that, of course, is going to be important. We are not talking about a situation where we will come from an extremely low level to a peak level again. When we talk about the challenging market, generally in Bonava but also generally in Sweden, we will see a gradual improvement, but we do not expect to be on the high peak levels in many, many years. So we will -- as a developer, we will need to face a new reality and adapt to a new reality. And I also think that the actions that we have taken as a company is making us prepared and future-proof in Bonava.

What level would you need to start building again in Sweden? You don't -- you haven't started any projects in Sweden last quarter.

We are preparing to start projects, and I think anything other than having more than 1,000 units in the Swedish business unit sort of long term would be a too low number. But we -- the biggest mistake you can do, it's so easy to start new projects without the control. We will need to start and build gradually back to a long-term consistent level.

So what interest rate would you hope for?

Well, I wouldn't say 0, but I think if you start with a base rate of around 3% and then you can build up the spreads, et cetera, you start to have an all-in rate for the consumer of around 4%, then you're starting to look into something which is appealing and manageable on all levels.

When you say 3%, is it consumer interest rate or Riksbank?

I said the repo rate and then you have the consumer and the spreads taking you up to 4%. Yes.

Okay. So 4% for the consumer. Yes.

Of course, it's an absolute science, but -- yes.

And now it's Peter answering, isn't it?

Yes, it's Peter answering. Yes.

And we have another one on the call. So please go ahead.

The next question comes from Jan Ihrfelt from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Okay. Just a follow-up question from my side. Construction costs, what kind of percentage change did you saw in 2023 compared to 2022? And what are you expecting for this year? Are you calculating with lower construction costs this year?

I think, firstly, I'm sorry, we can't help you with the Excel sheet, Jan. It's impossible to sort of talk about the general number in the portfolio. But sort of -- and when you dismantled, we saw an increase in costs in '23 compared to '22. And that composition was that we saw lower cost of material, input material, but the increased inflation and cost of energy, et cetera, it's also creating a lot of increase in many parts of the value chain. So overall, that led to an increase in underlying construction costs. Now, with a very weak construction market, of course, the prices for the contractors building the -- during the actual construction work, those prices are lowering somewhat. So we do not believe that the prices will go down, but we -- overall, we expect the prices to be on a stabilized level and hopefully going down somewhat, but we're not calculating a big drop, no.

And we have a question from David Flemmich at Nordea, and he's saying that you have more than 500 unsold completed units. Can you mention anything about the split between the segment in this number? And what's the strategy regarding divesting this? Do you believe in selective price cuts will do the job?

Well, now, should you have a go at it.

Yes, we have 500 if I remember correctly from the report, and we see an increase in activity during the first months now in January. So we're seeing a gradual reduction in this 505 unsold units. And there was a...

And the split between the segments, can you comment that one?

I think I have to leave that question to Peter because I'm not sure about what segment is in this that...

Let's see if I can bail you out.

Sorry for that. Not next time.

Yes. Everybody gets a honeymoon. So that's how it starts. But the 505, not concerned about that. A predominant part of the chunk comes in the Baltics, and in the Baltics, these are newly completed and sort of traditionally, you buy very, very late in the Baltics. But generally, we have seen the same trend in all markets now because people want to sell and buy in the same market conditions. So actually, what you saw from Lars' presentation, we have sold 83 from the stock that we had when we entered into the fourth quarter, and we are seeing the churn rate. So we are not seeing that the stock gets older. So if you look on the bars representing the completion and sales rate going forward, we will, of course, do that. We do expect ourselves to recognize and sell stock from the completed unsold. So this is something which we are very much focused on because we don't want to tie up the capital that stands there. And by Q4, we had a total of SEK 1.5 billion in capital. That's not so much per unit because Baltics is so big, and the average cost in Baltics are much lower compared to the other markets we're in.

Yes. And I don't have any more questions here, and I don't think we have any more on the phone. So with that, I would like to thank you all for listening and all your questions, and have a nice day.