Borouge plc (BOROUGE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today for Borouge's Third Quarter and 9 Month 2025 Results Call. My name is Chris Bucknall, VP, Investor Relations at Borouge. I'm pleased to be joined today by our senior management team, Chief Executive Officer, Hazeem Sultan Al Suwaidi; Chief Marketing Officer, Roland Janssen; Chief Operating Officer, Dr. Hasan Karam; and Chief Financial Officer, Jan-Martin Nufer. Today's call will begin with a presentation from the management team covering our third quarter performance and the Borouge investment case. Following the presentation, we'll open the floor for your questions. A copy of today's presentation is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I'd like to hand over to our CEO.

Thank you all for joining us today. In Q3 2025, Borouge delivered a standout performance across all key metrics. We remain the most profitable polyolefin company globally with an EBITDA margins of 39% in Q3. We delivered our highest production volume in Q3, achieving utilization rates of over 110%, well above design capacity. We continue to deliver resilient, sustainable earnings even during period of weaker market conditions. Our net profit increased by 52% quarter-on-quarter to $295 million following the Borouge 3 turnaround in Q2. High-value products made up 36% of total sales and premia over the first 9 months of the year, exceeding guidance. Based on this strong performance, we are pleased to reaffirm our full year 2025 dividend guidance of AED 0.162 per share. This AED 0.162 is expected to be maintained as a minimum dividend by Borouge Group International once launched through to at least 2030 with potential upside from a 90% payout ratio based on a free cash flow generation. Our share buy program also continues, supporting liquidity and reflecting our confidence in the valuation of our stock. Turning now to the financial summary for Q3 and 9 months year-to-date. The $295 million in net profit is 52% higher quarter-on-quarter, supported by 19% increase in sales volumes and a strong operational recovery following the Borouge 3 turnaround. Net profit margin was strong at 18%. Adjusted EBITDA was $565 million at a margin of 39%, 3x higher than the global petrochemical peer group average. Operating free cash flow rose 68% quarter-on-quarter to $525 million, reflecting strong cash conversion of the higher earnings. Our results underscore Borouge's strength, agility and ability to consistently deliver value across cycles even in difficult market conditions. We remain well positioned to capture new market opportunities and drive long-term growth through our superior customer offering. I will now hand over to Roland Janssen, our Chief Marketing Officer, to provide an overview of commercial performance.

Thank you, Hazeem, and good afternoon, everyone. From a pricing perspective, the third quarter was softer than the second quarter with benchmark prices continuing to weaken, the trend we've observed throughout the year. Borouge average selling price declined by 3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting underlying benchmark softness. However, I'm pleased to report that we maintained strong premier performance. Polyethylene premia reached $230 per tonne, up 16% year-on-year, exceeding management's through-the-cycle guidance. Polypropylene premia averaged $132 per tonne, lower than the same period last year, yet still exceeding guidance on a 9-month basis. Over the same period, the blended average selling price declined by 4% compared to the prior year's corresponding period. Whilst polypropylene premia declined 7% to $142 per tonne, polyethylene premia improved 40% year-on-year to $233 per tonne, helping to offset the impact of weaker benchmark pricing. In the third quarter, we sold 1.36 million tonnes, a strong 19% increase quarter-on-quarter, enabled by a record production performance. We continue to tactically allocate volumes to the most attractive markets with the highest netbacks, and this remains a key driver of our financial performance. 61% of our volumes were directed to the Asia Pacific region, where infrastructure demand remains resilient and 33% to the Middle East and Africa, where we benefit from lower cost and therefore, margin advantages. We also maintained our strategic focus on high-value applications with 36% of volumes coming from the valuable energy and infrastructure segments. Overall, we are seeing strong customer retention and a sustained preference for Borouge's differentiated solutions, reinforcing our competitive positioning. Innovation is the backbone of our commercial strategy and the main contributor to our continued strong pricing premia performance. Borouge launched multiple new grades across high-value segments in the period. In Health Care, in addition to our existing polypropylene grade, we introduced a new low-density polyethylene polymer solution for pharmaceutical packaging produced in the Middle East. This marks another step towards our target of building a 100-kiloton per year health care business, one of our higher-margin segments. In Advanced Packaging, we have launched a new product in collaboration with Siegwerk and TPN, which uses a polyethylene triplex laminate structure to create a mono-material standup pouch for food use. The product is designed to be readily de-inked and recycled, advancing circularity and sustainability across the consumer packaging value chain. In Infrastructure, we introduced a new BorSafe polyethylene pipe grade, which was recognized as New Product of the Year at the recent Asian Oil & Gas Awards. And we also officially launched the Borouge ROX Motor Innovative Material Joint Laboratory in Shanghai, following our strategic cooperation agreement signed earlier this year. This milestone will accelerate innovation from R&D to production, focusing on specialized materials for new energy vehicles in the luxury SUV segment. I will now hand over to Dr. Hasan for the operational update.

Good afternoon, everyone. I am pleased to share some exciting updates regarding our recent operation and achievements. In Q3, we achieved exceptional utilization capacity rate of 110% for polyethylene and 112% for polypropylene. This utilization level helped drive record production of 1.39 million tonnes during the quarter. On a 9-month basis, Borouge delivered high utilization rate of 97% for polyethylenes and 95% for polypropylenes. This underscores the resilience of our operations as the period included the successful Borouge 3 turnaround in Q2 2025, which reduced planned quarterly production by 320 Kt. We expect to deliver high utilization rate in the fourth quarter. Highest quarterly production achieved in Q3 is a testament to the quality and resilience of our asset base. I would like to emphasize the central role of our operational excellence program in maximizing production volume while maintaining the highest safety standards that ultimately leads to better cost management and industry-leading returns. Our operational teams have also provided crucial support for the launch of new innovative products as highlighted by Roland earlier. Each new grade produced required agility and careful calibration of the plant to meet evolving product specification while maintaining high levels of efficiency. Our strategic growth projects continue to make progress. Borouge 4 is now more than 90% complete and is expected to significantly enhance our earnings power once fully operational. A key milestone for Borouge 4 is the start-up of the XLPE 2 facility, which is on the schedule to commence operations by the end of 2025. This will more than double our high-value cross-linked polyethylene XLPE capacity to 180,000 tonnes per annum. We look forward to continue our journey of operational excellence and delivering outstanding results. With that, I will now pass over to Jan Martin to take you through the financial performance.

Thank you, Hasan, and good afternoon, everyone. Q3 revenue of $1.4 billion was 11% higher than the prior quarter following the Borouge 3 turnaround, but was down 10% year-on-year due to the high sales volumes in quarter 3 2024 and the lower average benchmark pricing in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA also increased significantly quarter-on-quarter, rising 28% to $565 million and Q3 net profit of $295 million was once again above market expectations. In respect to the 9-month period to 30th of September, revenue declined by 5% due to pricing and the Q2 turnaround impact on volumes. 9-month EBITDA of $1.57 billion represents an industry-leading margin of 38% and net profit for the 9-month period of $769 million demonstrates strong resilience in a challenging market environment. Borouge remains well positioned to maintain profitability across cycles due to its low-cost position and consistent quality price premium. Let me now turn to our cost performance. Borouge has continued to execute under its very successful value enhancement program, Accelerate for Growth, established at the end of 2022 to proactively address the market challenges. It comprises of revenue enhancement and cost improvement activities. Again, in 2025, this program delivered significant contributions to our results. As a consequence, our overall operating cost base was tightly managed during the quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, cost of sales was broadly flat despite the significant increase in sales volumes as quarter 3 benefited from greater fixed cost absorption. Selling and distribution expenses were down 13% year-on-year, and particularly due to the timing of a one-off benefit from a key logistics contract. However, they rose 8% quarter-on-quarter as sales volumes significantly increased by 19%. General and administrative expenses decreased 15% year-on-year, mainly driven by a reallocation of site supply chain costs. On a quarterly basis, G&A rose 17%, largely due to the capitalization of personnel costs during the quarter 2 turnaround activities. Our cost base remains structurally lean and well controlled. Fixed costs are on a good trajectory, and we continue to identify new avenues for efficiency gains through the remainder of the year through our value enhancement program, Accelerate for Growth. In Q3, we incurred capital expenditures of $40 million, flat year-on-year, reflecting a return to more typical investment levels following the Borouge 3 turnaround. Adjusted operating free cash flow was $525 million, representing a strong 93% cash conversion ratio. For the 9-month period, adjusted operating free cash flow reached $1.36 billion, down 22% year-on-year, primarily due to softer benchmark product prices and lower sales. Net debt stood at $2.92 billion, including $197 million in cash and cash equivalents. Our $500 million revolving credit facility remains undrawn, and our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is at a very solid 1.3x. This strong financial position enables us to support dividends, buybacks and future investments. Since our IPO, we have delivered $4.24 billion in total dividends, underscoring our commitment to shareholder returns. Since April, we've also executed a share buyback program, reflecting our strong confidence in Borouge's future prospects. As at the 30th of September, we had repurchased approximately 158 million shares, supporting liquidity in the market. With that, I'll hand back to Hazeem to take you through the outlook and investment case.

Thank you, Jan-Martin. Looking ahead, we expect a stable macroeconomic environment across our core markets for the remainder of the year with demand in Borouge's target regions continuing to outperform. Benchmark pricing is expected to remain soft in Q4, but our differentiated product portfolio will continue to support a significant through-the-cycle quality price premia. Our premia guidance remains unchanged at $200 per tonne for PE and $140 per tonne for PP. Operationally, we delivered record production volumes in Q3 following the successful Borouge 3 turnaround, and we expect high utilization rates to continue through the year-end. We remain focused on high value-added segments. And I'm happy to report that XLPE specialty production from Borouge 4 is set to commence by year-end. Ongoing production and region optimization will further support margin and growth. An investment in Borouge presents a significant opportunity for both existing and future shareholders. We are the most profitable polyolefins company globally with a first quartile cost position and an industry-leading EBITDA margins of 39%. Our financial resilience is driven by our differentiated products, technology and innovation. In Q3, we achieved record quarterly production and exceptional utilization rates following the successful Q2 turnaround. Our commercial agility continues to support margins and growth. Our dividend proposition is highly attractive with the full year 2025 payout of AED 0.162 per share, translating to a 6.3% yield among the highest on ADX. The Borouge Group International transactions are well on track to close in Q1 2026. The vast majority of required regulatory approvals have been secured. ADNOC and OMV have secured $15.4 billion in financing from global banks, including for the acquisition of Nova Chemicals. A confidential credit rating exercise has confirmed that BGI will hold strong investment-grade ratings. The transactions are expected to unlock over $500 million in an annual EBITDA synergies across cost and revenue areas, further strengthen our dividend propositions and long-term value creation. This is a pivotal moment in Borouge's journey, and we thank you for your continued support. We look forward to delivering sustained value generation and long-term growth. We would now be happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ricardo Rezende of Morgan Stanley.

Two questions, if I may. The first one on the price premia. We've seen the premia being a bit better on polyethylene than on PP. Do you think that, that should be the same dynamic in the fourth quarter as well with PE doing better than PP? Then the second question is on the utilization rates. You've been running at quite strong rates for a while now. Should actually we assume that you can consistently run above 100% going forward? And then third question is very specific on XLPE. What sort of price premia that you see in this product? And just to confirm, between when operations commence in before for this product and when you actually buy the plant, you're just going to be marketing those volumes as third party, correct?

Thank you for your question, Sir. So the first question will be answered by Roland and the second one would be by Dr. Hasan. And I believe also there was a question on XLPE.

So Ricardo, thank you for your question. So regarding the price premia, so we -- first of all, we expect those price premia to hold based on, let's say, the portfolio, the uniqueness of the portfolio and the value that it brings to the segments that we serve and also the commercial agility that we expect in those segments to maintain. You were asking about the polyethylene versus polypropylene. And also here, we believe that, that will stabilize in the fourth quarter. When it comes to XLPE, so right now, we -- if you look at the premia and polyethylene at $230 plus, so the actual PE premia, you should expect to see in excess of that $230 per tonne.

From the utilization point of view, Borouge continue sweating and maximizing their asset in order to ensure that high production volume. And for the coming quarter, we'll continue maximizing our production, which represents only higher utilization. We are having our internal sort of the program. We will ensure that all of our assets, they are running in a high utilization, high agility in order to produce more of these useful product.

The next question comes from Faisal Azmeh of Goldman Sachs.

Just a quick one on -- just to understand better your plans relating to China. Obviously, we are seeing now more discussions around rationalization, and I know you were looking at building a plant there that could effectively command some form of premia. Do you kind of look at it now and think it's time to reassess? Or are you still thinking about that as part of your long-term objectives given obviously what has been shaping up around the M&A. Maybe just if you can shed your color -- shed some color on some of those growth plans beyond the Middle East. And then my second question just comes to -- or relates to the Borouge acquisition. Just as we think about the early parts of the facilities that start, how would you include that into -- I know I think Ricardo asked a question, but I missed the last bit. But would you just account for it as marketing? Or would you actually start to integrate some of it and buy those plants one by one until you buy the entire facility?

Thank you sir for the questions. Of course, we and Borouge remains very focused on driving value. And as you rightly said, our project that we have signed a collaboration agreement with Wanhua is progressing in the right direction, I would say. We continue to evaluate the business and the economics of this business opportunity. I would say we will update you more in details as we progress on this project. I just want to highlight that for us, China is an important market that we have been operating in China for the last 25 years, and we have great customers and partners in China. And we believe that our, I would say, unique technology can further also, I would say, create value for Borouge. And of course, we will update you once we have more details. Thank you.

And maybe briefly on your question regarding Borouge 4. So great news, as we said, that we are on a very good track in terms of the finalization. As you have been mentioning, the first assets are now coming on stream. The good part is that we have the setup with the shareholders that we have the asset currently owned by them. So the production that will come from Borouge 4 will be marketed, obviously, from Borouge side. So there will be the appropriate arrangements then in place to do that. And then the recontribution time will be decided later on.

Moving on to the text questions. The first from Alex Estefanous from UBS. With one of the B4 facilities coming online in Q4, do we have a proposed time line for the other facilities in 2026?

Yes. Maybe I can take that question. So the first part of the facilities, as I said, are coming now on stream. Then we have the usual process of essentially putting the remaining of the assets under testing and putting it into operations. And we will decide based on that one, at what point in time Borouge 4 will be recontributed. But it's the usual time line that we're looking at. Hasan, any comments from your side from the operations?

I think the same thing that we are now focusing on the commissioning of the XLPE2 in Q4 2025 and the other plant will follow that pattern.

I just want to add also our gradual, I would say, operations of Borouge 4 is moving well in the right direction. Our XLPE, wire and cable high specialty products, it will add further also into, I would say, our value segments. We already have quite reasonable XLPE capacity. We are more than doubling the capacity already, which will start on stream, I would say, very, very soon. This is an important milestone of Borouge 4 and Borouge 4 will start gradually towards also year 2026. It's quite, I would say, a big complex, and we are in the right, I would say, directions to start up each plant, I would say, at a time. Thank you.

The next question reads, just looking at operating costs and your optimization and AIDT program, would it be fair to assume that more cost efficiencies are expected to be realized in the coming quarters?

Yes, I would say, Dr. Hasan, you can take that, but I just want to make a high-level statement, we and Borouge from the beginning, we started very seriously looking towards AI and how we truly can leverage on AI and not only by driving efficiencies, I would say, but also using AI to overcome lots of challenges towards creating value for Borouge, and that has been illustrated in many solutions that we have implemented. And Dr. Hasan, perhaps you can shed the light also for more specific details on the solutions that we are executing in AI for Borouge.

Sure. First of all, the Borouge will continue to be resilient and with the cost discipline in terms of the operating cost. And this cost optimization program started delivering the value from the beginning of the year, which will also continue to deliver in the last quarter and the upcoming years. And also there are some of the few AI and optimization initiatives, as mentioned by our CEO, started in Q3 and plan to start also in the Q4, which will be ramping up during this coming quarter and also will further enhance the cost optimization. So again, we are keeping this operating cost optimization under our close sort of the focus in order to have more of these sort of the cost enhancement discipline in the future.

And the third question reads, there would appear to be some reduced sales in China and India. Any context you could provide here would be welcome and when/if you do expect it?

Yes, I will take that question. So we, let's say, continue to, let's say, put our efforts in making sure that we maximize our value and focus on high-value segments and also high-value regions. And as a result, we have been, let's say, allocating more volumes, let's say, to other regions than you just mentioned. So this is a, let's say, deliberate efforts on our side to make sure that we maximize the value contribution and the profit optimization at the end of the day.

And I just want to add also, we in Borouge, we drive innovations pipelines quite, I would say, seriously. The markets for polyolefins within PE and PP, a business we know very well, a business that we have also clearly made strategic decisions in certain segments where we have differentiated ourselves from many competitors. So if you look at Borouge product mix, that has been, I would say, developed within our innovation pipeline has also giving us the opportunity to overcome these challenges that we are facing currently in the marketplaces. So we have created a market in different applications to ensure that we have, I would say, a very resilient commercial, I would say, approach with our customers and we drive value, of course, in those segments. So therefore, the diversification of the product mix we have and tactically moving those volumes on a monthly basis that has been clearly demonstrated since IPO. And we continue, of course, push our innovation pipelines for more products to come, [Foreign Language]. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Yousef Husseini from EFG Hermes. They ask, hello and thank you for the presentation. I was just wondering what drove the lower depreciation this quarter and if that is sustainable going forward? E.g., have you extended the useful life of the assets?

Thanks, Yousef, for your question. So we're doing the regular assessment and reassessment of the useful life of our assets under IFRS. We have the chance now with the recent large turnaround of Borouge 3 in the second quarter to look in detail into the assets and that gave us clear comfort that we have the assets to operate for a long time to come. As we do now the reassessment on a regular basis and need to make sure that particularly in our capital-intensive industry, depreciation is matching with the remaining useful lifetime that was adjusted. We are in line with that step with industry practice and comparables. And to your question, yes, this is sustainable going forward.

The next question comes from Rahul Shah of Kepler Cheuvreux. You have indicated that you expect pricing to remain soft in Q4. Is the premium you can achieve relatively independent of benchmark prices? Or are you seeing pressure here also? Do you have any view on the pricing environment in 2026? And can you give some color on which BGI synergy elements could come in ahead of the initial USD 500 million target?

So I will take the question on the pricing. So yes, we believe that pricing will continue to be under pressure in the, let's say, fourth quarter with limited recovery visibility. But we also do believe that the premia remains strong, consistent and actually further improve versus where we are as we continue our efforts to, again, sell into the higher-value applications, higher-value segments and regions. And also the start-up of the XLPE, as already mentioned, will help further boost the premia based on the anticipated higher, let's say, premia that we achieve for those products. Looking into the longer term, let's say, midterm, longer-term outlook from a pricing perspective, the underlying demand for the market remains resilient. And we also believe that the demand will continue to be above GDP. So we do expect a recovery based on those, let's say, fundamental drivers. When it comes to the question related to BGI, I'll give it to Hazeem to answer.

Thank you, Roland. Of course, definitely, this is a very valid question on BGI. I mean, we have communicated already a minimum of $500 million of EBITDA on an annual basis will be achieved for BGI. And we're already looking at this very, I would say, in a very promising way, the elements of the, I would say, the integrations and the synergy that will be created. We already have identified, I would say, a very tangible, I would say, opportunities to deliver this $500 million. We have been working with Borealis as an owner and of course, as a partner with ADNOC in Borouge for quite some time. We have a very clear and very solid ideas where we can generate immediate savings and immediate, I would say, revenue for BGI. And of course, further also with the integrations with Nova Chemicals, we see this can be delivered as a minimum for BGI. Thank you.

Thank you. We currently have no further questions at this time. So I'd like to hand back to CEO, Hazeem Al Suwaidi, for closing remarks.

Yes. I want to thank everybody that has been with us in this call, and we're looking very positive for the future. Thank you.