bpost NV/SA (BPOST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to the bpost Third Quarter 2021 Analyst Call. My name is Jess, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host, Dirk Tirez, CEO, to begin today's call. Thank you.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome. I am pleased to present to you the third quarter 2021 results as CEO of the bpost Group. Welcome to all of you, and thank you for joining us. With me I have Leen Geirnaerdt, our CFO; as well as Antoine Lebecq from Investor Relations. We posted the materials on our website last night. We will walk you through the presentation, and we will then take your questions. [Operator Instructions] Now let's get to the highlights of the third quarter. As anticipated, bpost levers a lower third quarter explained by the return of the pre-COVID seasonal pattern the impact of the abolishment of the low-value consignment relief and expected costs. Our group adjusted operating income for Q3 stands at EUR 976 million, almost flat year-over-year. This mainly results from the stable mail revenues with our pricing lever and mix mitigating volume decline. The decline in Asian cross-border revenues due to the introduction of European regulation on VAT and the accelerated contribution of Radial's new customers. The group adjusted EBIT stands at EUR 39 million with a margin of 4%. This is a EUR 30 million decrease versus last year, but in line with pre-pandemic seasonal pattern in which the third quarter is always the softer. At Mail & Retail, the underlying mail volume declined year-on-year by minus 7.5%. As expected, we saw the mail volumes reconverging towards the structural mail volume trend we know on the long term and the support of one-off COVID-19 communication volumes phased out. Nevertheless, these mail volumes, combined with a positive price and mix impact led to a slight revenue increase in domestic mail. The adjusted EBIT declined by 43% versus the third quarter of 2022 due to anticipated fleet and energy costs plans, salary index and CLA impacts and to the capacity kept in the network during the summer months for parcel volume growth. At PaLo Eurasia, the 9.5% decline in top line is fully explained by the anticipated but higher-than-expected decline in Asian cross-border volumes against the peak of Q3 last year and from the abolishment of the low-value consignment relief as of July this year. For Parcels B2X, thanks to sustained online sales, volumes grew by 8.9%. The price mix stood at minus 5.8%, which has resulted in a positive top line development of plus 3.1%. Radial Europe and Active Ants continue to grow their revenues. We saw an increase of 13.3%, also thanks to the opening of our new sites, including for Radial Germany and Radial Netherlands earlier this year and for Active Ants, Belgium more recently. The adjusted EBIT stands at EUR 12 million, mainly an EUR 80 million decrease versus last year, mainly due to the decline in cross-border revenues and OpEx for the e-commerce logistics expansion in line with our full year guidance. At PaLo North America, excluding International Mail, which was disposed of at the beginning of August. The total operating income stands at EUR 313 million, which represents a growth of 14.9%, excluding the exchange rate impacts. This reflects new customers' contribution that started to accelerate since June at Radial. This revenue development has been offset by the current wage rate pressure in the U.S. and costs from new sites. In the quarter, we had a positive EUR 4 million impact from the cyber insurance recovery from last year's ransomware attack. As a result, the adjusted EBIT of EUR 12.8 million was flat operationally when excluding this insurance recovery. Overall, at group level, our adjusted EBIT stands at EUR 39 million, a EUR 30 million decrease compared to the same period last year, and this mainly from our Mail & Retail and PaLo Eurasia business units, as illustrated on the bridge on Page 4. To conclude on the highlights, we can summarize that the third quarter was in line with our previous announcement and expectations, meaning the full year is entirely on track with the guidance for EBIT above EUR 340 million. Pre-COVID, the third quarter is seasonally the weakest quarter for bpost, and this was already taken into account in our last revised guidance. I will come back on it more in detail later in the presentation, but I will now give some background on the management priorities I had set for bpost, which give us the confidence to maintain our guidance for Q4. First, on the preparation of the end of year peak. In Belgium, we have secured distribution and sorting capacity to capture growth in comparison with the 2020 peak, including through temporary parcel posting machines in 2 sites. We also optimized the second distribution wave compared to Q4 2020, reducing it in time by 2 weeks and reducing it in size by approximately 50%. Reintensified predictive analysis and operations, planning with our top customers, representing over 80% of our expected parcel volumes to ensure that we use the latest data for more reliable and granular volume forecasts. We also organized a buffer capacity nationwide at low switch on costs for additional parcel volumes that can go up to 10% to 15% of our forecast. We will be able to handle these extra volumes on a best accord basis as agreed upon with our customers, injecting volumes above their forecast. This is to prevent the use of subcontractors at the last minute with unfavorable economics. Engaging our temporary workforce is on track, given the earlier engagement of recruiting agencies and by adopting a faster recruitment process. For postal, our peak preparations in the U.S. hiring and training of our temporary workforce is on track through the use of additional temporary recruiting agencies with access to a larger labor pool and an earlier initiation of marketing campaigns. Moreover, despite U.S. carriers capacity limitations, capacity for Radial clients has been secured, taking advantage of our scale as a large provider of parcels. Second, we are anticipating on adverse macroeconomic trends. We all know the supply chain disruptions is the market trend. While currently, our customers expect limited exposure to e-commerce supply chain disruptions based on current stocking up, we are managing the volume risks by a meticulous preparation, planning and execution of the end of year peak. We also have mitigated exposure to inflation, thanks to the inclusion of standard indexing provisions in our e-commerce agreements, and through the stamp price increase mechanism. Third, on operational efficiency in Belgium. We initiated this year an increased focus on the reorganization of the 247 distribution offices until 2024. In 2021, year-to-date, we have already reorganized 108 distribution offices compared with 77 offices throughout full year 2020, leading to productivity improvements. Fourth, we are planning reduction in Belgium overhead and headquarter costs. We have stabilized overhead FTEs in 2020 while continuously investing in our transformation. In view of these elements, we maintain our guidance for Q4 and for the full year 2021. I would now like to hand over to Leen for more details on the financials.

Thank you very much, Dirk, and good morning to you all. Thanks for joining. On Page 7, you'll find an overview for your reference of the key financials for the quarter, both reported and adjusted and allow me to move directly to the details of Mail & Retail. In Mail & Retail, the external revenues slightly increased by EUR 7 million to EUR 294 million. Domestic Mail recorded an underlying mail volume decline of minus 7.5% for the quarter. This mail volume decline compares to the more regular comps of last year. Remember that bpost reported a mail volume decline of minus 8.2% in that quarter. This has impacted current revenues by minus EUR 18 million. That impact was offset by a positive price and mix impact of EUR 20 million, this is mainly driven by mail price increases. In admin mail volumes, they were still supported by some fading out COVID-19 communication that had already started in March this year. We estimate the contribution of about EUR 4.5 million to the top line in this quarter. In units, when you look at the graph and excluding the mail pricing impact, we see that domestic mail volumes now reconverges towards the underlying trend, with a structural volume decline in mail volumes compared to the third quarter '19 and the third quarter of 2020. Proximity and convenience retail network revenues increased by EUR 3 million resulting from a combination of higher revenues from Ubiway Retail since last year, we had lower sales due to reduced footfall, especially in travel locations. And also lower banking revenues from the low interest rate environment. Also profiting from the soft comps of last year, the value-added services increased by EUR 2 million driven by higher revenues from fine solutions. Looking then at the EBIT of Mail & Retail on Slide 9. Adjusted EBIT declined by EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million with a margin of 4.3%. This decline, of course, explained in parts by an increase of EUR 6 million in total revenue, and on the other hand, an increase of EUR 21 million in the operating expenses. The operating expenses that increased year-over-year mainly as a result of expected higher costs, including staff costs and including costs for our larger fleets in line with partial volume development and increased energy prices. More specifically on the staff cost, we had the impacts of the new collective labor agreement 2020, 2021 and the recent plus 2% salary indexation in Belgium. We had a different holiday phasing with less postmen on the summer holiday in the third quarter of last year due to the pandemic, we then also had less need for replaced. This was phased to the fourth quarter 2020. This year, our postmen, they went on holiday following the regular seasonality, and we had to replace them to cover the fixed distribution amounts. This was combined with the impact of the capacity kept in the network during the summer to cope with our customers' demand for capacity in view of their forecasted partial volume growth, which did not improve materialize. Moving to Slide 10, which PaLo Eurasia. In this quarter, we did record an external revenue decline of EUR 25 million, fully due to an anticipated but higher-than-expected decline in Asian cross-border volumes. For Parcels BeNe and e-commerce logistics, we had a flat top line development, despite a good performance in Parcels B2X and at Radial and Active Ants. Let's look at this revenue development for SIP segment. Parcels BeNe recorded a decrease of EUR 2 million or minus 1.3%. First, the sales at Dyna, they were down 18.7% versus last year due to lower sales in insurance and also a lower demand in the 2XL delivery compared to the lockdown momentum of the last year. This has more than offset the positive development of our Parcels B2X. As to Parcels B2X, we witnessed sustained online sales in the third quarter 2021, and volumes continued to grow by 8.9%. Parcels B2X revenues increased by 3.1%, also due to an anticipated negative price/mix of minus 5.8% and fully mix-driven. Since we continue to see in our mix this entire year, lower volumes in prepaid products, consumer-to-consumer parcel, they peaked during this pandemic last year. In addition to that, higher contractual products with our top customers growing their volume shares. It is also interesting here to look at Parcels B2X volumes retrospectively. The volumes in the third quarter 2021, they were, of course, below the second quarter, in line with the normal seasonality. But respectively, they were up 62.4% and 8.9% above the third quarter of 2019 and the third quarter 2020, thanks to structural volume growth post-COVID. In e-commerce logistics, Radial Europe and Active Ants sales, like Dirk already said, they continue to grow year-over-year, but the progress made was fully offset by the decline in the revenue at DynaFix. So we only recorded a slight increase of EUR 1 million in revenues. So on the one hand, we did see continued organic growth at Active Ants from the existing customers and also Radial Europe growth, mainly driven by the third site opens in Germany in February this year. The combined revenues of Active Ants and Radial Europe, they grew about 13.3% year-over-year. Note that for Active Ants, we opened a new site in Belgium in this quarter, late this quarter, and another state has just been launched in Germany a few weeks ago. And then on the other hand, I talked about DynaFix with a negative revenue development. It's expected to rebase in the Netherlands for electronic devices. This is due to the current shortage of electronic spare parts and less devices to be repaired. Then moving to cross-border. Indeed, recorded a weak quarter against last year high comps. Revenue decreased by EUR 24 million. That's minus 25.7%. We saw the decline, especially in the Asian parcel volumes are only in the Asian parcel volumes. The decline in Asian sales is a consequence of the high comps of last year when we set up the temporary rail transport alternative. And second, the abolishment of the VAT exemption on low value consignment since July this year. In the future, we expect to see a progressive recovery from this low-value consignment impact. The timing, however, remains a bit uncertain as the consumer behavior is still impacted by some confusing information circulating about VAT impact for the final receivables. While we see that most of the Asian platforms are actually already fully compliant with the new VAT clearings. Note that the volumes of Asian cross-border are still 40% ahead of the third quarter 2019 pre-COVID. On the next slide, adjusted EBIT for Parcels & Logistics Eurasia, a decrease by EUR 18 million or minus 59% to reach a margin of 5%. This was driven by the top line evolution that I just talked about. And on the cost side, lower volume-linked transportation costs from the Asian cross-border activities, partially offset by higher costs, including staff costs, from the expansion of e-commerce logistics and the new site openings in line with the full year guidance and also our commitment to invest in the long term and also somewhat higher cost as to the low-value consignment project. Moving to North America. Operating income of e-commerce logistics increased by EUR 39 million, up 14.9% when excluding the foreign exchange development year-over-year. This is driven by Radial, mainly thanks to the contribution of new customers launched in 2021 and accelerating since June. At the same time, our activities at Landmark and Apple Express continued to record strong volumes from existing clients and new customers. We're also putting Radial revenues in perspective, as you see on the slide, and we see how this quarter compares with the previous ones, we see Radial revenues are 8% above the revenues of the second quarter, 12% above third quarter 2020, as just discussed, and 50% above the third quarter 2019, which reflects the structural e-commerce logistics growth and the Radial's expansion plan. International Mail decreased by EUR 14 million following the deconsolidation of the Mail Group in early August. On Slide 13, you see that the operating expenses, they increased by 6.7%. Variable OpEx evolved in line with revenue development, and they include labor cost headwinds due to the current wage rate pressure in the U.S. We also had higher fixed costs from the new sites and the start-up costs in line with our expansion and commitment to invest. Note that in the third quarter, we recorded a positive impact of EUR 4 million from the cyber insurance recovery following last year's ransomware attack. PaLo North America adjusted EBIT just remained flat operationally when excluding this impact. The top line development did not yet turn into operating leverage due to costs from the new site openings and the ongoing wage rate pressure in the U.S. Corporate segment. The net operating expense remained globally stable. The adjusted EBIT evolved in line with the building sales and stood at minus EUR 5.9 million. Then we can move to the cash flow. Net cash flow increased compared to the same period last year by EUR 110 million to plus EUR 53 million. The main items that I want to flag are the following: of course, lower EBITDA generation in this third quarter. In addition to that, lower tax prepayments done in this quarter, while last year, we postponed the tax payments to the third quarter out of prudency and cash preservation in the context of the pandemic. So that's timing. And a positive variance of EUR 78 million in the changing working capital, mainly driven by the deferred payment schedule of the SGEI compensation that last year we received in January and this year in July. So the latter has no impact on the full year cash flow. As to the cash flow from investing activities, capital expenditures stood at EUR 31 million in the third quarter versus EUR 41 million last year, mainly invested in continued e-commerce logistics expansion of Radial and Active Ants. We also saw a positive impact of EUR 6 million following the disposal of the Mail Group and some lower building sales for EUR 2 million. So all in all, the net debt decreased again by EUR 140 million compared to September last year to an amount of EUR 458 million, supported by the free cash flow generation and the absence of dividend payment in the fourth quarter of 2020. I will now hand over back to Dirk for the outlook of this.

Thank you, Leen. We can indeed summarize that we had a softer third quarter in line with pre pandemic seasonal pattern. Nevertheless, given our current insight on normalization for e-commerce activities post COVID and building on the initiatives presented earlier in this call. Bpost maintains its guidance, and we still expect our group adjusted EBIT to be above EUR 340 million. And now this implies that another EUR 79 million to deliver in the third quarter with different moving parts. For Mail & Retail, we have a higher level of visibility after 3 quarters. We now expect a mail volume decline of up to minus 7% for 2021 versus minus 8% previously. And the price/mix impact will allow to mitigate the decline in mail revenues. The adjusted EBIT margin is now expected to range between 9% and 10% in 2021 compared to the previous updated range of 8% to 10%. For PaLo Eurasia. We saw in the third quarter how volatile it can be, and we remain prudent on the specific guidance for the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, we now expect a low single-digit percentage growth in total operating income versus a high single-digit percentage previously. This reflects the recent developments in Asian cross-border volumes and the parcels and e-commerce logistic volumes normalizing in the post-pandemic new normal. As part of our peak planning, we will be focused on efficient parcel volume absorption in Belgium and top to bottom improvements. While supply chain disruptions may impact consumer shopping behavior, we have mitigated the impact on volume risk by updated volume forecast, adjusting the second wave side, adjusting the workforce model by proactive interim agency management, by granular local FTE planning, by central workforce planning control tower and 3x more central staff mandates in peak versus last year. And therefore, the guidance on EBIT margin percentage for the year remains intact. Despite these moving parts at the group level, the guidance remains unchanged. We still expect a low to mid-single-digit percentage growth in revenues and the adjusted EBIT to be above EUR 340 million. Finally, while we were initially guiding for EUR 200 million to EUR 220 million, the gross CapEx envelope is now revised downwards to EUR 180 million. Before taking your questions, I would like you to walk through our management priorities for 2020 as well as give a few general updates. Based on the crystallization of the new normal post COVID for e-commerce and the trends seen as of the summer this year, we can start to consider the 2022 management priorities. Well, we plan to continue and to accelerate the execution of our key existing management priorities, mainly Belgian operations, cost reduction and e-commerce logistics growth. Consequently, we have set in place a Belgian organization that enables to accelerate the transformation. The reorganizations and the implementation of our alternating distribution model continue as planned, of course. That we are now shifting gears to changes, things and not simply optimizing the existing. We are bundling our Belgium particle activities with our Mail & Retail activities into one Belgium business units. The new industrial plan for Belgium will accelerate the transition of mail and parcel operations into a forward-looking and dynamic delivery round model. We are launching first pilots of this project called OMEGA in 2022 following discussions with the social partners. This also gives a clear perspective for the Belgian organization on the future growth company. It also means that we can recognize cost synergies between mail, retail and parcels. For instance, for sales and marketing, which we expect to lead to a cost reduction of also around 30%. We will work on how to report it to you forward-looking, but what we're trying to resolve for this is the accelerating operational improvements, quality of service and optimizing costs through maximizing synergies. We will also accelerate the reduction of the Belgian overhead and headquarter costs which are currently in excess of 24% of revenue. One of the objectives of the new group CFO will be to bring these costs over time in line with the benchmark of our e-commerce competitors during our business transformation journey to 15% to 17% of revenue. On the e-commerce logistics on both sides of the Atlantic. Comparing year-over-year, Radial U.S. has contracted year-to-date 2021 approximately 35% additional ACV compared to year-to-date 2020 with 3 fulfillment centers opened plus 3 clients and this added, that are managed by Radial. We are working on an ambitious new industrial plan for Radial to grow with our existing and new clients and take benefit of the continuous growth in the North American market. For Radial and Active Ants combined, they sold year-to-date 2021 approximately 60% additional ACV compared to the full year 2020 with 1 quarter still to go. Radial Europe and Active Ants together also opened 6 new sites so far in 2021 with for Active Ants' first sites opened and operational in Germany and Belgium. We plan to continue to invest in e-commerce logistics in Europe with an ambition to grow the revenues more than 5x over a period of 5 years. I also wanted to come back on our ambition communicated in Q2 to be one of the greenest postal operators in Europe. As bpost, we are at the front line of the increasing regulation on access to cities for last-mile delivery and the increasing request of our e-commerce clients for sustainable delivery. Yesterday, the bpost Board of Directors approved the new sustainability road map for bpost with as ambition to become one of the greenest e-commerce logistics providers in the countries where we operate by 2030. As such, we will decrease the bpost Group emissions under Direct bpost control or the Scope 1 and 2 emissions in specialty terms with 55% by 2030 compared to 2019, bringing it well in line of below 1.5 degree Celsius scenario by 2030 and making bpost one of the greenest postal operators in Europe and one of the greenest logistics operators in the U.S. We will also decrease the bpost Group Scope 3 emissions being the emissions of our suppliers in line with a below 2-degree Celsius scenario by 2030. Investments to accelerate this transition are captured within the existing CapEx envelope. I also would like to update you on the newspapers and periodicals contracts. The existing contract with the Belgian government is expected to terminate at the end of next year, and the government launched a tender process for the period 2023 and 2027. The tender is divided in 2 separate concessions, for which applications are now closed. Bpost again, has applied for these tenders with an excellent track record on delivery quality and other SLA requirements. As a final topic, I wanted to address the recent management changes at bpost. With the new Board, I'm working to establish the succession plan to ensure business continuity in the future. We took the opportunity to review the roles and responsibilities of each member of the Group Executive Committee to ensure focus on the acceleration of the transformation journey of bpost. The 2 -- the new rules does reflect the new ambition of bpost to accelerate the transformation of bpost into an international e-commerce logistics player. First, a new function, CEO Belgium has been created to strengthen the leadership position of bpost in Belgium and accelerate the transformation into a high-quality competitive parcel delivery company integrating Mail in Belgium. Jean Muls will join us shortly to lead a transformation journey of an integrated parcel and mail company and will be responsible for cost efficiency and high-quality service delivery to our clients. I think, as you can see from his resume, he has really a background in excelling in operational excellence. The transformation trajectory of bpost will further accelerate by the appointment of a Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer. Nicolas Baise will coordinate the group's strategy and join bpost on January 10, 2022, and lead all transformation projects of the group but also the agility culture of the group. He will develop and lead a bpost excellence center aimed at improving customer centricity and employee engagement. The role of the group CFO has been redefined to accelerate also the transformation journey, the new role will have an increased focus on group profitability, group performance and making bpost best in class in terms of cost-effective leadership as a group. I also expect to onboard the Chief Technology Officer shortly. The CTO will have business acumen and focus on innovation, increasing customer experience through technology and supporting the growth in e-commerce technology as a service to our customers. And a successful plan is being established for all other functions in the group Executive Committee in the future. So to conclude, Q3 was soft but 100% expected due to the anticipated low-value consignment relief, the impacts of the CLA, the cost to reserve FTEs for peak and tight labor markets. And this is also in line with what we have seen in the industry. We expect in Q4 to deliver at least EUR 79 million, meaning we confirm the upgrades above EUR 340 million for the year. And I'm rebuilding the top executive team. We have clear priorities for 2022 and it's going to be an exciting end of this year. Now we are ready for your questions. Operator, thank you for opening the lines.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Ivar Billfalk-Kelly from UBS.

I'll ask 2, linked to your logistics businesses, please. What portion of your logistics contracts are open book relative to close books? And to what extent can the increased costs actually be passed on to your customers? Some of your other peers I have spoken to have indicated that even in closed book contracts are actually able to increase pricing to maintain service levels. So one might be able to see this particularly in Radial. And linked to that, within your targets to grow your logistics revenues by 5x in Europe. I mean, what are the underlying sort of costs, both from an OpEx and CapEx perspective of opening up new centers? And what are your long-term margin ambitions for that? And is it in line with what we're seeing in the North American business at the moment?

Okay. Happy to have your question on opening close books. We don't disclose the split in between the 2. You're absolutely right, of course, that in open books, it's a bit more easier to cost charge the increase in, for instance, the wage rate inflation that we see but we can give you confidence that also in the closed book contracts, we have a pricing mechanism that is based on the indexation. So also there, we are able to do cost charge those increases in cost. And the second question as to e-commerce logistics was on what basis the increase would take place. And actually, we are planning to come back on that one with Q4 like Dirk indicated, we want to already give an insight on the management priorities of 2022. And going forward on the longer-term ambition, it is planned also in the course of 2022 come with the Capital Markets Day and be more specific on that one.

Given that we're relatively short, I'll toss in another one quickly. Within that ambition, is that -- is the intention to do entirely organically? Or will you need M&A to achieve that 5x growth?

Well, so far -- thank you for your question. We are planning for organic growth, but I think we would look in Europe at bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate the growth path and building through the e-commerce logistics business.

And Leen, best of luck in your future endeavors.

The next question comes from the line of Frank Claassen from Degroof Petercam.

I've got a question on the OMEGA project. Could you elaborate on the benefits where do you see these benefits and also perhaps the timing of these benefits? Because next year, it will be a pilot project how quickly will you really implement the whole project after that? Would it be gradual? Or will it be a big boom? So some elaboration on that, please.

Well, thank you for your question. And what I can confirm is that with the appointment of a CEO, Belgium and the appointment of a Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, we will accelerate the transformation journey of bpost, the blueprint for the new distribution model including on transport, quality, distribution, sorting, workforce plan and organization is ready. The dialogue with the labor unions will start. We will report in further detail when we present the annual results of this year in the beginning of next year on our further ambition on project OMEGA.

Okay. Then maybe another question on COVID. Some of your peers have really split out what they see as the nonrecurring positive impact. What is your view of the impact of COVID on your numbers? Is it positive? And what is your guesstimate on how positive it has been?

Yes. Like we indicated also during the presentation, I think from [Indiscernible], it's quite sure we can really see what is specific COVID-19 communication as to call it out. And there we have seen year-to-date that we had about EUR 18 million of revenues coming from that. On the other hand, for Parcels, that's also why we put the trend on the slide for Parcels. We consider, actually, as part of the new normal. I think the trends clearly indicate that like we call it, we jumped a cliff, and it's really difficult to identify what exactly is COVID and non-COVID. So we really see it as part of the new normal like trends clearly indicated.

Your next question comes from the line of Marc Zwartsenburg from ING.

First of all, in the Parcels volumes, can you give me an indication on how the volume trend went through Q3, particularly with holiday timing in Belgium and what you're currently seeing going into Q4? That's my first question.

And can we have your second question?

Yes. I have quite a few. So then you'll probably forget what I asked in the first question.

Yes, yes, it's okay, Marc. For the last time, I allow actually. So what we've seen, indeed, is in the Parcels volume of October, but actually, throughout the quarter, I think we've seen it in the first -- in the beginning in July, like we indicated at that point in time, too, it was indeed the double digit and throughout the quarter it went to a single-digit percentage, and that's also how we went into the fourth quarter. So also the first month of October went that way.

I think on Q4, I think what we see is comparable to what can be seen by our peers in the sector. I think we have a clear forecast. We are in continuous dialogue with our customers. We are building the buffer of 10% to 15% above forecast. We have a meticulous plan that we use for end of year peak. And the most important thing is that profitability top to bottom impact will improve. So I would say, do not only look at volume, but look at profitability. And we believe with the meticulous planning of the end-of-year peak, we feel comfortable to confirm the outlook.

Yes. Maybe then focusing on the profitability. We do, of course, see some inflationary pressures from higher fuel costs, et cetera, and the delay that you have in passing on price increases in your contract, there's always a bit of a delay. And you're also adding more capacity to avoid subcontractors moving in with bad economics. But what if the volumes don't come, they still have put on a bigger coat. And for that reason, yes, actually freight and then the margin will disappoint you people.

Well, again, I think there is an uncertainty about the exact volume, but we are in continuous dialogue with our customers to allow us, we now have forecasting tower and a meticulous planning of the end of year to adjust and to focus on delivery in terms of profitability of Q4.

Okay. And then maybe on the newspaper and the periodicals contract expiring next year. Can you give us a bit of an indication on the SBTis? What this -- this part is expiring but that is only part of the EUR 270 million? Can you give an indication of what currently is the split in the SBTis and what you believe are your chances of keeping the contract?

First of all, I think earlier this year, we were able to confirm the prolongation of the 7th management contract, the 7th management contract relates with the service of general economic interest. It is a contract of EUR 130 million annually, approximately. It runs for 5 years as of January 1, 2022, and it has been approved and signed by both the Belgian government and bpost. It has been notified to European Commission, but it's, I think, the second time that it has been notified. So we expect the procedure to go as planned. In terms of the press concession, as required in the European law, there is a public tender for the contract to prolong the newspapers and the periodicals contract for also 5 years. That is for the period January 1, 2023 and then 5 years beyond. I think we are -- have exceptional track record during the past 5 years to be ideally positioned also to win that contract.

Okay. Okay. That's really assuring. And then maybe lastly on Radial U.S. You see the onboarding definitely supporting the top line. But yes, its partly the insurance, there's no operational leverage because allocation pressures there. How do you see this going forward? Is part of that lack operation leverage in Q3 also because of investments in the network and some one-off start-up costs or onboarding costs that in Q3? And how should we think about it and then moving into Q4 and beyond? Should we see the operational leverage really kick in with the top line?

For Q4, indeed, yes, it's a peak season. So I think the volumes are then at the highest. So of course, that will support any operating leverage as such. That's also what is included in the outlook. What we see is that the revenue growth is driven by fulfilled, which is labor intensive resulting in a bit lower favorable margin driven by the higher variable labor from the current wage increases in North America. And then we also have a fixed cost that increased because of the starting up of those new customers. Those are now all onboarded in the third quarter. Some of them were also at the end of the third quarter. So volumes will kick in, but onboarding costs we already have. And then the remaining driver of the lower EBIT that we've seen in the third quarter is tied to service line revenue mix versus the last year. There, we've seen, indeed, a difference with a couple of customers that were sky-high last year. I already mentioned once 2 customers that had a lot of projects typically for the COVID-19 as to hand gels and sanitizers. And that's something that we've seen in Q3, too. They have closed book contracts. They had an impact on volume, but bit by bit and also in Q4, those volumes should start to kick in and also as to mix improve it for the fourth quarter.

Okay. And maybe can I slip in the last one for you, Leen, because it's your last call. Again, on the CapEx, the EUR 180 million guidance, despite a bit below the initial guidance. Is that a phasing effect? Or is it really the number and then back to the guidance again for the coming years?

A big advantage of the management priorities is that throughout the organization, it's very clear what to invest in and what not to invest in. As you know, we have quite a stringent investment criteria. And on top of that, indeed, also come the management priorities. So some of the investments in Belgium operations were decided not to execute to be able to fully focus on e-commerce logistics and not on what is noncore to the business or the strategy.

But is it then still phasing that we see part of it back then next year when you're tackling those items? Or is this just a goal?

It's really based on what projects to invest in for the future.

All right. Leen, thank you very much for your support to the analysts and all the best in your new challenges.

The next question comes from the line of Henk Slotboom from The Idea.

Dirk, I've got 2 questions if I -- maybe a brief follow-up. First of all, you were mentioning the newspaper contracts. From what I've seen in the Belgian press is that it has a total value of around EUR 750 million, starting at EUR 162 million in the first year in 2023. Now on the one hand, you're saying that the goal of -- one of the consequences of merging the mail and parcels business in Belgium, is that it will reduce your cost by around 30%, if I understood it correctly. I don't know how it works with the newspaper contract, whether that's subject to EC approval as well. But if your costs go down by 30% could that potentially endanger the value of the contract in the eyes of the European Commission. That's my first question. The second question relates to the Shipco situation in Belgium. I realize we're not an active party in the court case, which is currently taking place in [ Handsworth ]. But undoubtedly, you will watch it with great interest. Is there any indication as to when we can expect a court ruling in this case against GLS and PostNL. And perhaps, if I may be so impolite, can I ask a last question, and that's about the green ambitions of bpost. You're saying in the presentation that the targets can be reached within the current CapEx budget that you're planning to spend. May I ask how much of the CapEx budget is related to becoming one of the greenest companies in Europe? And let me say beforehand, Leens, thank you very much for the explanation you did during the presentation, we'll miss you. And hopefully, we'll hear from you again in the future and good luck with whatever you're planning to do.

Thanks a lot, Henk. It's a small work indeed, yes. Thank you.

Well, Henk, many thanks for your questions. First, on the press contract, you know that the European Commission for the approval under the European stated rules used in the NOC in terms of methodology to net avoided cost methodology. And as you know, since the introduction of the SDI package [ 5% ] [indiscernible], we are entitled to keep the efficiency gains under the contract. The contract would be notified to the European Commission if and when awarded. So we feel comfortable with the budgets that have been set by the government and the terms of the contract. Number two, on the social level playing field, we're not party to the proceedings, which are criminal proceedings, and we see increasing the criminal proceedings starting up against independent contractors used by some of our competitors. The position of bpost is that we comply with tax and social security legislation, and we expect also that the Belgian government is losing hundreds of millions in terms of tax and social security revenues. We expect that they will take action to address on a more structural basis -- the unfair competition in the transport and logistics market in Belgium. In terms of our green ambitions, indeed, I can confirm that the CapEx envelope is included in the CapEx envelope as presented and it is between EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million. It was fully budgeted for in 2021 and will continue to be budgeted for as previously in -- for the next year.

Add something, Henk, because you mentioned 30% of cost reduction. I just want to point out that just to give you examples of one particular department being sales and marketing, in which, indeed, we expect a cost reduction of around 30%. Whereas your question on newspapers was more relating to operations, and that's a different story, of course. And so the 30% only relates to overhead for all avoidance of doubt.

Okay. Very clear. May I ask one follow-up? Do I understand you correctly that you're expecting the government to move ahead of the court case, which is going on right now? You're saying I expect the Belgian government to take action...

Government never interferes nor does bpost in the pending court case. The court case is what it is between the parties that are affected in this criminal proceedings. What I say is from a policy level. There is no doubt in my mind that the Belgian government will need to address given the losses in social security and tax contributions, indeed, are level playing field in the transport and logistics sector.

The next question comes from the line of Andre Mulder from Kepler Cheuvreux.

A number of questions. Firstly, on the reduction of the overhead from 24% of sales to 16%. Can you give us a bit more insight in the base that you're using? Is that the sales level in Belgium of EUR 2.5 billion?

Well, I can be very clear on that. It is based on EUR 550 million overhead and administrative expenses. We have the ambition to reduce it over time 3 to 5 years with 30%. It means an amount of EUR 160 million. And in terms of FTE, because there's FTE and OpEx and FDA reduction, will be in line with natural attrition, and that will be 6% per year.

The next question comes from the line of Sumit Mehrotra from Societe Generale. As there is no answer and there are no further questions in the queue, I will hand the call back to your host for some closing remarks.

Well, thank you. And first of all, I think as some of you on the call have already done, I would like to express my gratitude to Leen. I think she has been an outstanding colleague. She is an excellent CFO. We will miss her. In the office, she sits next to me. So I will miss her dearly. I also would like to thank everybody in the call for having taken the time to be with us and really for your interesting questions. We will hear from you at the conferences we're going to attend later this year. We look forward to staying in touch, and our fourth quarter results will be released in February. So thank you all, and stay safe.

Bye-bye to you all.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.