Braemar Plc (BMS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 6, 2024

London Stock Exchange GB Industrials Transportation Infrastructure earnings 37 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining. I know it's a big day today out there in the press, what's going on in the U.S. at moment, but thanks for joining. Really appreciate. A couple of things first. Chris is here as well, just for guidance in the audience here. But when it comes to Q&A, Chris will obviously be helping with those questions to answer as well. And I want to say to Grant and his finance team, well done for getting the accounts out on time if not early. We're definitely improving there. So please take a big tick on that because I'm sleeping better at night in the back of the fact that the accounts are coming out on time. This, you all know is the introduction of us, myself and Grant, and what we do. Proud today that we've got, as I said earlier, got the accounts out on time and the fact that we delivered what we said we'll do so far and feeling quite positive about the business and the outlook for the markets, et cetera. Just to go through some of the highlights here, and I sort of elaborate a bit more on that as well with the revenue and the profitability compared to profit compared to last year. You can see that our diversification story and how we've built the business into more of a resilient way, especially by building our security business, which is thanks to Twist a lot there and making it -- allowing -- even when the market is moving up and down, we can take advantage of all those market movements by having those security businesses. The underlying operating profit, you can see is up from comparable to the same time last year. We've improved the revenue line as well. The net cash is slightly up there. Grant will obviously explain a bit more on that later on down the line. The revenue per head you can see the figures here from GBP 181,000 to GBP 227,000 on the basis from first half last year to this year. But the most important thing is that we were mentioning, we were looking at the stats that the voyages are obviously longer, which means the revenue is slightly up, but the number of fixes is slightly down. That's lots of world trade, et cetera. So just making sure you realize that, that where it becomes a negative on one part aspect as far as deals being done, it becomes a positive on the side of the fact that the revenue slightly goes up on the longer voyages. And obviously, with the Red Sea being a key indicator on that as well and what's going on in the world today, these are all positive aspects for shipping as it is. Now this is a key factor as well. The forward order book. Another point that Grant was mentioning what's dropping into the second half of the year, which is obviously very positive. And I can safely say that forward order book has increased again where we are today compared with the end of August. So that's a good news. And once again, obviously, interim profit. We've been saying our progressive dividend, we maintain that. That is one thing we're saying as well. So Grant, if you can move across, that would be great. Now just sort of obviously highlighting on the fact that the management team in place now since well, 4 years in January since I took the chair, we had a strategy there, and it was very key that we were going to focus on ship broking and any business that complemented ship broking. Pieces I didn't understand, I didn't want to do. I think by still on this business and reducing the debt and concentrating on businesses, you can see that those new business we've acquired plus additional talent and desk we've brought in have enhanced revenue compared we were 4 years ago. Obviously, since as you can see, shipping is in the press a lot and the weather could have been dry [indiscernible] been come off this year. And the container market went back up again on the back of the Red Sea. We're always being so diversified in all the markets and all the segments, we're taking advantage of those sectors, which is obviously creating our revenue line and protecting our resilience within the business. That's one key factor I want to emphasize to everyone here that we've made the business more resilient by covering all those markets. And even in things like into the container Chartering space, that desk has gone from literally nothing in the last 3 or 4 years to really outperforming. And then obviously, as I said, we've increased the scale. One more office opens up in the last 12 months in Korea. We're building those offices up, and I think we still have a few more focuses on in the headline going forward, which we'll do in addition to potentially the M&A deals, which we discussed as well. But be careful and be sure that we won't be going into those M&A deals unless we're totally sure it complements the business. There are quite a few things coming across our desk that we just push to one side because there's a massive overlap or we don't see how we can enhance the bottom line of the business. And on ground level, Grant here definitely protects me on that and making sure we don't do that. And obviously, the dividend, obviously, a key factor here. We're obviously promoting that where we were 3 or 4 years ago. All right. Thank you. Grant, do you take over there?

Grant Foley

executive
#2

Thanks, James. So if we start with the income statement, revenue at GBP 76 million was 1% ahead of the previous period. Investment advisory performed well. That was up 19% to GBP 14.8 million, driven by a strong performance from our sale and purchase desk. Risk Advisory, our securities business continued its growth trajectory, up 16% to GBP 11.5 million, and that was really driven by our Dry FFA desk forward freight agreements and natural gas desks. Offsetting this, chartering was 5% lower, primarily due to lower performance in tankers, although the acquisitions that we made in FY 2022 continued to perform well. Operating costs were up just 1%, and we can see the operational leverage coming through with underlying operating profit before acquisition-related items up 5% to GBP 7.9 million. With a lower level of exceptional items in this period, statutory profit before tax at GBP 3.6 million is GBP 1.7 million or 89% above the same period last year. Underlying earnings per share at 14.55p is 2.88p lower than the prior period, and that's because of a higher tax charge in the 6 months compared to last year. And in line with our progressive dividend policy, as James mentioned, interim dividend of 4.5p, up from 4p last year. As we saw in the FY '24 full year results, the strategy of diversifying across ship broking and securities is building a more diversified business, which is delivering sustainable revenue and profits. For the first half, the revenue mix has remained well balanced. And geographically, we can see that we've broadly maintained the mix that we saw last year. On this particular slide, we can see the benefits of [Audio Gap] that has grown by 1% to GBP 76 million from last year, but we have a very different mix. We saw weaker Chartering performance, as I said, primarily driven by tankers, where we've seen, as James has already mentioned, an increasing average commission but lower fixture numbers, and that resulted in a 5% decrease in those revenues overall. But that was offset by an improved performance in Investment Advisory. Sale and purchase revenues grew by 25%, and that was driven by increased activity across all areas, secondhand and new builds, while Corporate Finance remained subdued in the first half, although there are a number of mandates that we expect to complete in the second half. Risk Advisory continues to grow, up 16% from the prior period and now contributing 15% of overall group revenues at GBP 11.5 million. That's double the revenues that the securities business achieved in the first half of 2022. Since the strategy was implemented to focus on ship broking and securities in FY '22, revenues have increased from GBP 47.4 million to GBP 76 million this half, and that's an increase of 60% since the strategy was introduced. As I've said, operating costs remain well controlled, up just 1% from the prior year period. Overall staff costs are up 2% as we continue to invest in headcount. Travel and entertaining is lower in this period, whilst professional fees are up GBP 0.3 million, and that's as we expected as we work with our advisers to establish our organized trading facilities in Europe and the U.K., which will complement our securities business going forward. Moving on to liquidity. The group has maintained a positive cash position, slightly up on the previous year with overall borrowings reduced by 2.3 -- sorry, GBP 3.2 million from the previous period. Finally, on KPIs. As I said, revenue up 1% to GBP 76 million. Revenue per head continues to be strong, GBP 181,000. But in U.S. dollars, that's $227,000, and it was $228,000 last year, so broadly unchanged. Operating profit before acquisition-related items, GBP 7.9 million, up 5% from the previous period. And we've improved operating profit margin slightly. It's 10.5% against 10.1% in the first 6 months of last year. As James has mentioned, the forward order book remains strong. At the end of August, it was $80.9 million, up 20% from a year earlier. This goes out to 2039 and is broadly split 50-50 between S&P and Chartering. And importantly, $28 million of that forward order book is going to land in the second half of this year. Positive cash maintained, borrowings reduced and interim dividend of 4.5p. I will now pass back to James.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#3

Thanks, Grant. Now obviously, the market rates going forward. We're, for sure, Braemar is still very bullish about the outlook going forward next -- and I say that next 5 years. It just feels like that with also going the geopolitical situation, plus, as you can see on the new building order book, you can see where it was and where it is today. Yards are still filled to probably late '27. And the mix, I believe, the mix from 2008 super cycle then compared to where it is now, it's more diverse. It seems more equilibrium between the various different fleets. So we're not seeing one necessarily one fleet overbuilding, so we could feel that the rates will sustain. And we know the fact in the long-term time charter book and the futures market, which obviously involved in all those markets is very positive going forward. So now we're going to get some ups and downs, but that creates volatility within the markets, which we have other markets, which we can lean back on to. So as I say, as I keep saying the first message was that we being diversified allows us to be far more resilient in what we're trying to achieve. But as far as the newbuilding order book is that's in our favor that we will start to see some removal from that fleet. as it starts moving from -- it was what you would call, we used to talked about 15 years of age. That was what we used to say 10 years ago, but it feels it's moves more 20. But as you can see, the fleet is aging and aging nearer that 20-year mark. So you'll have to start seeing some. And within the Western Hemisphere, it's really more age restrictive in the Western Hemisphere compared to the East, but even that, we see a case of moving away. So we will start to see some recycling within the market in the next couple of years, which, by the way, we have a very strong recycling department as well. So we're on top of that sector as well. Now we're going to Braemar Index, you can see where we were in the situation when -- obviously, sadly when Ukraine was invaded by Russia, is that market took off everywhere, but we've come back. but still above where the average were in the last 3 or 4 years. So we still believe the outlook is very strong, but from where we are and what we're seeing and where our analysts are looking at the market. So yes, if you can move forward, please, Grant. Now from us, I think from where we're sitting here, I think you can say we're pleased with the results where we are, and we feel confident for the whole year. It's a good revenue. And as I said before, the way the business is structured now, we're creating that resilience and the diversification story is definitely working for us, and we will continue to build that. We have that platform to build on all those various desks across the globe to increase those profitabilities. I mentioned that the average commissions are offset by weaker fixed numbers, but I said earlier the fact that those are longer voyages. So revenue is higher per voyage as opposed to the fixed numbers are down because they're less short voyages. Maintain that cash position. We've obviously been emphasizing our progressive dividend, which we will maintain. So it's up from 4.5%, it's up 13%. I discussed about the outlook of shipping. We feel confident about that and positive in that business. We feel we're well -- Braemar is a great brand within the shipping industry. And on top of that, we've definitely put ourselves on the front foot as far as our desks across the globe and being involved in those markets. And I can assure you that those desks talk to each other all day long to enhance more deals on the back of that information. So it's critical. And on top of that, the fact is, look, the business is becoming more compliant. I can say that. We're not quite regulated ship broking, but we have related sides of our business. So we are -- so for a public company, being held in that side of having a regulation and compliant and being a public -- as I said, being a public company is important and which is why we're seeing consolidation because the smaller shops are finding it more difficult to maintain or use as far as adding extra cost into their own business is becoming expensive. So you're seeing a shift from smaller shops into the bigger shops. That's why we feel that, as I said earlier, as well as Grant, so we're being very careful what we pick. We're not going to come out there and start doing deals. We're very careful. But what we have proven is the fact the deals we have done have been massively enhancing to our bottom line and our revenue stream from where we were in the last 4 years. Strong forward order book. Grant mentioned that. And as I said, we're up again in the last month. So that's a positive thing. And obviously, it's nice to come out as a business, shipbroking piece where you come out on a day 1 of the new financial year knowing you've got a large amount of money coming into the book. That doesn't happen in many businesses there. So that gives us a lot of confidence that we can start the year with a lot of money coming in. As I said, all the pipe full of deals we've done have been complementary and enhancing. So we are positive about that. And I think as we said in our papers today, we're obviously in line with where our numbers are. So as far as that, we're feeling kind of confident. All right. But thank you very much. Obviously there will be some questions, I'm sure, and Chris will be in those questions as well.

Robin Byde

analyst
#4

Robin Byde from Zeus Capital. Three, please. Just on fleet age, can you talk a bit about the implication of energy transition and how you see that playing out? Secondly, just on the forward order book, you said, I think, 50-50 Chartering and S&P. Can you just give us a bit more color by segments? I mean how tankers heavy is that, for example? Apologies. Number three, revenue per head, again, can you give a bit more color on the split by division? So who's doing better, who is doing not so well?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#5

So I'll start the first one with the question about the alternative fuels. That's a question that if you were to talk to the average shipowner who probably runs his business on the back of older ships and looking basically for return on the ships, he won't necessarily be bought into the fact that he wants to go down the alternative fuel because there's a serious impact of cost. And at the moment, we're not necessarily seeing the day-to-day Chartering, for example, paying that additional cost for a ship that's running on methanol or LNG, for example. So now unless the market swings, LNG becomes cheaper than low sulfur fuel oil, for example, it's only going to be a case of the Charter to take the best ship in the best position for whatever it takes. So that hasn't totally gone into. But obviously, with the EUA situation, that's starting to lean. They're starting to put pressure on the ship owners to sort of take in or ordering that next-generation ship. But we're not seeing any singular -- I say that, we're seeing any dual fuel ships being ordered. We're not seeing a singular -- like a singular LNG fuel ship or a singular methanol ship. So that hasn't quite moved across yet. But of course, the pressure on is still out there. And you're seeing in container space more, yes, because the movement of goods, for example, like maybe Amazon or IKEA or Nike is saying they want their ships, their goods move net zero, and that creates it. But we're not seeing it necessarily on the main day-to-day Chartering where they're insisting on, they're moving freight at the best, cheapest price, and that's how it moves across.

Grant Foley

executive
#6

I think I'd just add a little bit to that and what James is saying that you're definitely seeing a shift, as he said, in the container market that some of the big operators like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are already committing on LNG, methanol and ammonia fuel carriers, whether they're in service now or new build orders that they're placing. And certainly, some of the larger owners in tankers are making those commitments as well on dual-fuel ships. But I think it's all kind of adding up to the same fact that we have right now is that because they're not making those commitments and because we have this slow delivery time that you're seeing an already existing fleet age even further and that transition hasn't happened yet, but it's just creating a pinch point at some point in the future.

Robin Byde

analyst
#7

So just to come back on that, do you think Maersk ordering the fleet of methanol container ships, is that a pull-through from their customers?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#8

Correct. That's the difference we're seeing like in that, that the container space is ahead of the curve as far as the tanker space, for example, the dry bulk space because the customers aren't insisting on it. They're looking for the cheapest freight. That's a fact. There's no point doing that. And so if someone is going to have a disadvantage, for example, on the VLCC, they spend $20 million extra on having a dual fuel, but ex oil company won't pay more, what does it come through apart from less LNG starts to become more of a competitive fuel, which then you're hedging on the back of where LNG is as a price factor for bunkers as opposed to as HSFO with a scrubber or low sulfur fuel on your own. Does that make sense?

Grant Foley

executive
#9

Good. Just a point on the forward order book. So if you think about the forward order book split, if you look in the appendices on Slide 20, you'll see a split between Chartering and S&P. So we don't disclose it specifically by Chartering desk. But broadly, if you look at how chartering splits down from a revenue percentage, you could broadly apply that to the forward order book and you get a very similar split by desk.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#10

In terms of revenue per head, obviously, it moves around. And if you think our Chartering division is by far the largest, about 250 people in our Chartering division, about 50 in S&P. So S&P has fewer but bigger ticket items. So you will see that revenue per head is stronger in S&P in this period and slightly weaker in chartering. The Securities business, revenue per head has continued to grow as that business becomes more and more successful. So I'd say Securities and S&P broadly similar. Chartering a little bit lower because we've seen some drop off in some of the rates in this period, but they all mix around. So it ones up, one is down, but that's the benefits of the diversification within the business.

Robin Byde

analyst
#11

So is the average for securities per head higher than the group average?

Grant Foley

executive
#12

Yes.

Robin Byde

analyst
#13

As per class.

Grant Foley

executive
#14

Yes, exactly.

Caroline Gulliver

analyst
#15

Caroline Gulliver from Equity Development. You've got a very helpful slide here on the growth opportunities. I think it's Page 21. And you talked about being very selective in potential M&A opportunities. And I just wondered if you could talk a bit more about the financial criteria or what specifically you're looking at with regards to acquisition opportunities.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#16

I think I'll start on that one. First of all, I'm obviously looking for the fact that where -- I will have Grant take over some of that question, but for me, it's about making sure that we don't see an overlap. When the -- you take a lot of that experience, for example, from when we did the Braemar-ACM merger. Now there was a lot of overlap, which created a lot of problems. And on top of that, there was, I would say, a different culture. That's not been too hard. It's different culture between Braemar and ACM. ACM was a very aggressive shop. And I'm not saying Braemar wasn't either in that respect, but there was still too much overlap, which created a lot of wastage. So what -- we take that lesson out of that and we say, right, we need to look at M&A deals that potentially enhance with not so much overlap. So that makes it slightly easier to sort of segment out. We're not going to buy a business and waste half of it down the road. We're going to buy a business where we can save costs on obviously, offices because we might not be in the same geo location, et cetera, making sure we going to have support with the backup with what we do in backup staff, support staff and making sure that the business, the revenue makers coming in are complementing our present revenue makers. Those are the key things for us. I think I made it very clear, and I believe, and I'm pretty sure the clients will say the same thing that the business is more -- is consolidating more and more. So because of the many reasons I talk about compliance, other aspects as well and the clients actually wanting now to be able to have a company that can service on every sector. They don't want one over here and one over there. Boutique shop days from the '90s sort of it's moved on a lot then. So what we're saying is that the business we targeted, for example, like whether that be in Madrid or the U.S. or building our securities business where they were targeted M&A deals, which we obviously self-funded with our own debt financing. So -- and they have enhanced. So now we can sit and say, you know what, we've done those ourselves. We've proven that's added to the bottom line and to revenue. And I can safely say those businesses enhance their own earnings. I mean the states probably enhanced by 30-odd percent on the back of having larger group information and able to break into new markets they couldn't do because they didn't have the information. So out of that, we take that. And that's why the next -- if we ever come to another market to do deals, big M&A deals, we'll be focusing on deals that definitely complement business.

Grant Foley

executive
#17

Yes. I mean I'll just add a couple of bits to that. So you can see here, you look at these pie charts, there's lots of opportunities there. So first of all, does it start to fill in one of those gaps? As James says, is it complementary? Is there limited overlap? Are we confident that one on one is going to equal 3. And importantly, given the platform that we've built within the business from an infrastructure standpoint, can we bring that business on board, make it more efficient, improve the margin. And of course, that will drive operational leverage in the business going forward.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#18

I think I'd just add to that, that for what we've done so far, once we've established a footprint in something, whether it's a product or a geography, we see the natural effect of the business growing once it's there. And a good example of that is obviously in the States with the Southport acquisition that essentially we were buying a tanker operation in North America, but we're moving that product now that we're shortly opening an office in Connecticut. We've already got a presence on the West Coast now. And it has just sort of -- once the footprint is there, it's very easy to expand it. And the same thing with obviously, securities and that we initially started with Dry FFA desk, Gold desk moving into natural gas. We've got interest moving to other products here within Europe, part of that team is going to move to Madrid when we get the OTF license now that we have the office in Madrid. Likewise with Korea, Korea was opened as an extension of our S&P and new build business. But at the same time, we've got a container team in there now. So it's complementing things once you have that footprint, it's not easy, but it's easier.

Caroline Gulliver

analyst
#19

Very comprehensive. Just one follow-up question -- not a follow-up, but just a different question. Working capital has moved around quite a bit over the last couple of years. Do you have an outlook for the second half on working capital?

Grant Foley

executive
#20

Probably, I think it has moved around a bit from a working capital perspective, we see through the cycle is that you build up surplus working capital, pay bonuses at the interim, build it up, pay bonuses in the second half of the year. So it has moved around a little bit, but I think it will be more normalized going forward.

Damian Brewer

analyst
#21

Damian Brewer, Canaccord. Two questions, please. First of all, could you expand a bit more on what your customers are telling you about why they're ordering so far ahead and effectively what is expanding the forward order book? What's driving them to commit earlier for longer, if I could put it that way?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#22

Well, first answer is really they have no choice when it comes to the date the ship will deliver because the yard capacity was cut by 20% after 2008 crash, '09 crash. So the fact is it's about ability to build a ship, and that's where yes, you're given birth space and there's nothing earlier. So you can't really get around that. So they believe in the markets. Obviously, there's still -- one big driving factor is on the newbuilding sector is the fact that the yards are looking for the highest return on what ship to build. And for example, like a large container ship with 24,000 TEU or LNG carriers a high probability. The LNG market is probably built -- they're ordering for forward because these are -- because of what's coming on stream down the line. And that's why their belief in the forward market is huge, not necessarily the prompt market, as you may know, the LNG market on these is quite weak. But the forward projection and what's holding the secondhand prices and newbuilding prices up is about the belief what's going to come from the Mozambique projects, all these various big LNG projects. So I guess that's the main reason for the -- where the deliveries are. That makes sense?

Damian Brewer

analyst
#23

Yes, absolutely.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#24

Okay.

Damian Brewer

analyst
#25

And then second question. The RCF is now, I think, extended through to November 27. You're generating cash now. The one-off items potentially start to reduce over the next 2 years quite considerably, so that cash generation could accelerate sharply. You've lifted the dividend. How broadly, without going into any particular metrics, do you think about the way you're going to allocate the cash you're going to generate in the future? Because you've got dividend, investment in people, expansion, maybe enhancing M&A. There's lots of opportunities there. As a Board, how do you think about that as you balance that out?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#26

We have to do balance, but to be honest, I'm obviously very much about the growth of the business. I think it's important to grow the business and there's opportunities and there's timing factors. I think as far as I'm concerned, we've maintained -- we're talking about a progressive dividend, which is -- we understand what progressive means, but for us, it's about putting those spaces in that growth chart, and that's a key factor. And I think we've proved that that's important for us. So yes, so growth is about me, but...

Grant Foley

executive
#27

Yes. I think the way we look at it is we want to continue to... that gives us the firepower if we want to increase our debt profile to make acquisitions as you should see it. Internally, we sort of run at 50% maximum EBITDA in terms of the overall net debt we pay bonuses, and that's been improving over time. But there is headroom now for us to go and do it. So it's really initially let's reduce the RCF as we go forward and give ourselves the firepower then to make investments in people or M&A whilst maintaining that progressive dividend policy as well.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#28

I mean just to add to that, I think you have to look at graph up here, look where the business was 4 years ago, where the debt was. I'm not going to try to sort of be negative on the past, sort of my Chairman don't look back, but you had to deal with what the cards you had laid and for me at the time was like, I don't like debt personally, I don't like debt in the business, let's just get rid of the debt and sell those businesses with noncore, reduce the debt, put it up in a better position and grow the business. I think we've proved that. So strategy has been correct in what we've done there. And it's also -- it's important, I believe, to run a business you understand. To be involved in business we don't necessarily understand, it's just made no sense personally to me.

James Fletcher

analyst
#29

James Fletcher from Berenberg. Just on S&P, can you give a bit more color on the secondhand market? You had a nice graph on the new build. I was just wondering on the relative buoyancy of the secondhand market.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#30

Yes. I mean any time it goes a little bit quiet when markets either come off and people are believing that the market rate or price is going to come lower as sort of entrance point. But because there are so many different sectors and the rates of different markets are moving in different times, it could be one month we're focusing on tankers, next month we're focused on dry cargo or containers or LPG. So the reality is we're still doing our numbers on the secondhand, -- of course, we are, but it can move around. But the good thing is, I think you can see from the business is the fact that probably over the last 12 months, there's been a lot of focus on the new building because there was a real demand at the yards. So the brokers will obviously concentrate on what and sometimes to them, it's concentrating on the forward order book deals as opposed to the secondhand because secondhand deals aren't there so much. But the reality is honestly, the guys are buying -- sometimes the brokers are selling deals ships on the back of what they're seeing on the spot market or on the futures market. They actually can see that the owner will come and buy that MR2 tanker, for example, because I can see the forward curve moving on futures in our company and the spot desk is saying it's going up on the time. [indiscernible] So they all interlink on one floor, and they need that information to make sure it does self-feed itself on deals. So as I said, it's all timing aspects.

Andrew Murphy

analyst
#31

Andy Murphy at Edison. Just a question, just wondering about all the sort of geopolitical issues that were mentioned in the statement, if the world was to normalize back to a world where there aren't any sort of diversions and wars and that sort of thing?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#32

And you'd ask you that.

Andrew Murphy

analyst
#33

Yes. Okay. Will cancel that question. I was wondering what impact on revenues and profits a normalized market would look like?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#34

Well, I think if you go back to the graph on the -- go back to the fleet summary. So if your question is correct, that we start to go back and Trump resolves the world and then he goes back to a bit of a situation of like normality because he claims he can do that, then this aging fleet will then start removing straight away. It was just the old fleets had to go to the beach as we will call it, and be recycled. Then you'll see the fleets start to become an equilibrium, maintain that level. So I think -- the reasons why these older ships are -- why these older ships are sailing around the world today is because of the market is so strong, and that's because they're making as much profit on these older units. But once the profits come, if we say, for example, then the rates were to come down, we'd see the fleet start to diminish, then we start to see it go back up again because we have a shrinkage of fleet and where the world trade is. It's the world trade pattern, for example, has changed hugely in the last 30 years. I mean we used to see oil going into the U.S. Gulf. We now see oil coming out of the U.S. Gulf. So it's the pattern going into China or going from Brazil. I mean all these trade patterns have changed so hugely. It's just allowed that the freight rates have become picking up. And of course, at the same time, the asset values on newbuilds are more. So it's obviously going to create the higher -- they need a higher return to run these ships. So I don't think we -- and I don't think we see normality either, not in my time in ship -- but I understand the question you're asking for, but that's probably the answer that I can think of.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#35

Just your people business, what's the first half been like in terms of recruitment, attrition and especially rainmakers?

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#36

I can answer the question. It's obviously -- it's a competitive business. Let me assure you of that. It's been more competitive in the last 5, 10 years [indiscernible] more in the arena as far as the focus. We're obviously going to -- there's -- as you say, it's a people's business, there's going to be a turnover of staff. It's a low percentage compared to the size of the business, very low. At the same time, look, what I can say is that how I view it is there's a shelf life of certain people, they'll leave and move on. Also, I want to emphasize the fact that we are a public company, very exceptionally compliant with how we run a business. That doesn't always run well with everyone in the business around the globe. But at the same time, when we -- if someone was to leave the company for whatever reason it was, it's quite interesting how we fill that space because of whatever that personality. So we believe it's an evolving business, and we feel that we're able to attract because of the brand. And yes, I think there's no one bigger than the company, including myself.

Grant Foley

executive
#37

Yes, I'd add. I mean, we've lost some people go to owners. And so in many ways, you keep getting the revenue and then move to owners. Some do go to...

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#38

Trading houses, oil companies.

Grant Foley

executive
#39

Yes. But importantly, what we're talking about is building that scale within the business. So as we continue to grow, you can withstand any attrition that you get across the business, and that's an important part of our growth strategy to continue on that.

James Christopher Gundy

executive
#40

It's quite interesting just to add to that point on our tanker Wet FFA desk, which is undoubtedly one of the strongest desk -- is the strongest desk in the world. We're probably have 45% of the market share. Most of the head traders that are out there are all ex our desk. So we lose one and we get business back because of who they are. So it's just one example of that. So we can be a training ground sometimes undoubtedly, other trades [indiscernible] -- but you do see people move on. So -- but the most important thing is the headcount is up and we're growing our business and we obviously move to new sectors.

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