Breedon Group plc (BREE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 10, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Patrick Ward
executiveGood morning, everybody. Welcome to Breedon Group 2020 results from the very heart of Breedon on the Hill. I'm joined by Rob Wood and James Brotherton. Rob and myself will take you through the presentation. And as we approach the Q&A session, James will join us and participate in that. So pleased to have everybody here virtually. That means everybody but virtually, not virtually everybody. I'm not excluding some of you. [ We know what ] year we've just had, and for us, at the end of the day, we've described it as a robust performance against a backdrop of considerable disruption caused by COVID-19. But for us it was so much more than that in what we delivered. We had a decent start to the year in Q2. As we moved into the end of Q1 and Q2, COVID government restrictions [ fell anyplace ] and essentially demand for our products all but disappeared; a tale of 2 halves because, in H2, we had a very strong recovery. Like-for-like revenues and underlying EBIT were ahead of the prior year. All of this was made possible by the support and hard work of our -- all of our colleagues. And I include everyone in that, people who were at home during the pandemic period; and a particular thanks to our colleagues who worked all the way through the lockdown period, supplying essential projects. The attitude and the performance of every colleague in the business was outstanding both up to the half year and particularly in H2. Even during this period, we've managed to progress our sustainability agenda. And we appointed our first group Head of Sustainability in May 2020. The challenge for Donna, who joined us as group Head of Sustainability, it was made more difficult because of the virtual nature of induction and engagement initially, but we've continued to develop a clear road map for Breedon and have seen significant progress in H2. During this period also, we managed to complete the CEMEX acquisition at the end of July. We then ran it for a hold separate to the end of November, and we were able to fully bring it onboard and commence integration on 1st of December. Again that's a commendable performance by Breedon; by our advisers; and by the previous CEMEX employees who were in that hold separate period, so they were sort of in between CEMEX and Breedon, and a remarkable job by those colleagues. And when you take it in your mind, it was about a 12 months period of uncertainty for them, so it's remarkable how they've held that business together. And they brought us in a business that brings forward great opportunity. Strong balance sheet and liquidity maintained throughout '20. And leverage at 2.1x at the year-end was due to the strong second half trading and free cash flow generation. And we've reaffirmed our intention to pay a maiden dividend during 2021. I'll pass over to Rob to talk about the financial highlights.
Rob Wood
executiveThank you, Pat. And good morning, everyone. 2020 was very much a year of 2 halves. And the first half was materially impacted by COVID-19 and particularly the lockdown in the second quarter, which resulted in us reporting a substantial reduction in revenue and a breakeven performance at the underlying EBIT level at the half year. In contrast, we saw a strong recovery in activity levels and profitability in the second half, which also included the first contribution from the CEMEX acquisition that completed at the end of July. For the full year, we delivered revenue in line with 2019 but an underlying EBIT decline of 34%. Profit before tax was down 49%, and on an underlying basis, it was down 39%. This translated into an underlying basic EPS decline of 45%. At the year-end, the closing net debt of GBP 318.3 million includes an IFRS 16 element of GBP 53.1 million and represents leverage of 2.1x. Excluding the impact of IFRS 16, net debt was GBP 265.2 million and leverage 1.9x. Given the impact of COVID and the completion of CEMEX during the year, this was an outstanding achievement and clearly demonstrates the highly cash-generative nature of the group. Turning to the income statements; and revenue, which at GBP 928.7 million was in line with 2019. Excluding the impact of the CEMEX acquisition, it was down 6%. At the earnings level, underlying EBIT of GBP 76.5 million was down 34%. Again excluding the impact of CEMEX, it was down 38%. These like-for-like decreases are the result of the COVID-19 lockdown in the second quarter. Interest costs of GBP 13.5 million were broadly in line with 2019. Non-underlying items of GBP 14.9 million primarily comprised acquisition costs for the CEMEX acquisition and amortization costs. It's worth reminding you that we guided to GBP 10 million of acquisition costs in respect of the CEMEX acquisition back in January 2020 and incurred GBP 3 million of these costs in 2019 and the balance in 2020. The resulting profit before tax of GBP 48.1 million was down 49%. The underlying tax charge reflected an effective rate of 16%, which was less than the 17% last year as a result of the higher proportion of Republic of Ireland earnings in 2020. The tax charge also reflected a noncash deferred tax charge of GBP 5.9 million as a result of the U.K. government's decision to cancel the planned reduction in corporation tax in 2020 from 19% to 17%. This all translated into an underlying basic earnings per share of 2.8p, down 45% on 2019. Turning to the segmental performance. As reported at the half year, post the second quarter lockdown, the pace of reopenings differed by division, determined in part by the needs of our customers and in part by the different time lines by which the various governments and devolved administrations eased restrictions. Great Britain's performance was impacted by Scotland which remained subdued into -- well into June as a result of the delayed lifting of restrictions by the Scottish parliament. It also included the business acquired with the CEMEX acquisition. Ireland's performance benefited from our operations in the Republic of Ireland recovering strongly from late May onwards. Lastly, our cement business was in lockdown for a shorter period than our other businesses, as we were able to safely produce the stock for a period of time post lockdown and also benefited from us being able to defer 1/3 of our annual kiln shutdowns until early 2021. Having said all this, the divisions, all the divisions, recovered strongly in the second half. Turning to our products. Reported aggregate volumes grew by 7%. On a like-for-like basis, there was a decrease of 6%. Reported asphalt volumes grew by 9%, and on a like-for-like basis, there was an increase of 1%. Reported concrete volumes declined by 15%, and on a like-for-like basis this was a decrease of 18%. And lastly, we reported cement volumes declined by 3%. And on a like-for-like basis, this decrease was 6%. Our largest market, Great Britain, saw declines of aggregates, asphalt and concrete of 11%, 9% and 18%, respectively. The uneven market impact of the pandemic reflects the fact that concrete is more exposed to housing and commercial construction, where the post-lockdown recovery lagged out of our other products. In addition, our asphalt performance versus the market benefited from our regional footprint. In terms of pricing, aggregates and cement prices progressed in excess of inflation. Concrete pricing progressed to a lesser extent, as it was impacted by the slower recovery of the market post the second quarter lockdown. And asphalt pricing was broadly flat, reflecting lower bitumen costs in 2020. Pat will comment further on the market shortly. Now turning to net debt, which stands at GBP 318.3 million at the year-end. Net debt has increased by GBP 28 million from GBP 290.3 million at the end of 2019 to GBP 318.3 million at the end of 2020. And this movement reflected free cash flow generation of GBP 140 million, made up of the underlying EBIT of GBP 149.2 million, a GBP 56 million working capital inflow, interest and tax paid of a combined GBP 31 million and a GBP 36.4 million CapEx outflow net of disposal proceeds, which was more than offset by net acquisition spend of GBP 157.3 million. Given its size, it's worth examining the working capital inflow in a bit more detail. It comprised of tax and other deferrals of circa GBP 30 million that will reverse in 2021 but also benefited from enhanced working capital management during and as the business recovered from the lockdown. As a result of all this, the closing leverage was 2.1x, or 1.9x on a pre-IFRS basis -- pre-IFRS 16 basis, with net debt lower than our expectations at the half year, thanks to the strong second half trading and the exceptional cash generation in summary, we ended the year in a very strong liquidity position, with undrawn facilities available amounting to nearly GBP 300 million. I'll now pass you on to Pat to take us through the operational review.
Patrick Ward
executiveI think we've had many conversations through the year about the decline in our markets. And whilst we can look at a year-on-year decline, and you can see that for construction output at 13%, what it doesn't tell you as story is the severe nature of the shutdown, lockdown in Q2. And for us to go from sort of full activity to almost 0 activity over that period was significant. And the 2 immediate issues for us became the well-being of our colleagues and how to close and shut down plants in a nature that operationally we could bring them back online quickly. And we always discussed throughout the lockdown period that, for us, we could bring most of our plants back within a 24- to 40-hour period and perhaps up to 72 hours for the cement plant. And that's because of the quality of performance in closing that down, and that served us well for H2. So that talks about the operational aspect during and just after the shutdown, but importantly as well, we're committed to the future in Breedon. And on that basis, we still had some significant capital projects that we were working on and completed, 2 of which were the North Cave quarry plant investment and the Holme Hall road bridge access over to 7 million tonne of quality reserves. So those were positives. And pleasingly, during the year, we continued to get inquiries from clients. We continued to bid and be awarded work, much along the same Ts and Cs as prior. We didn't see a significant change in bidding activity. And we were -- had some key contract wins during the year, notably early supply contracts onto HS2, the A9 surfacing and the air ambulance hanger work at Inverness Airport. And pleasingly, the BEAR associate company was awarded a 5G framework contract up in Scotland. We've stated over the past couple of years we had a strategic objective to grow our asphalt business; and on the back of that, to develop a larger, more effective contracting business in the South. We're pleased as we got the CEMEX acquisition because it gave us a march forward and the footprint and the number of asphalt plants we had in our portfolio. And we're very, very excited to have a new managing director appointed to expand our contracting offering, who started very recently with us. Aligned with the market coming back, we're also delighted to have completed the CEMEX acquisition. As we've stated previously over the past probably 18 months to 2 years, this is an acquisition we were delighted to perform. Compelling strategic rationale included quality assets underpinned by 170 million tonne of mineral reserves and resources, 650 talented and experienced colleagues who would be joining the business; and infilled 6 key regional GB markets for us; and as I stated previously, allows us to have a step change in the development of our national asphalt strategy. The integration commenced, and delivery of the GBP 2 million synergies identified is on track. I'm delighted to say there's no surprises identified post completion. And we always look at learnings coming both ways when we do an acquisition. And I have to say that the health and safety culture and process is a positive, and there's many learnings to be taken and adopted from the new acquired business into the Breedon Group overall. And as I said in the previous opening, this acquisition was completed in July for a total consideration of GBP 178 million. Much like GB, we saw a significant decline in construction in the North of Ireland and the South. You can see 16% and 17%, respectively, and again it was very much over a short period in Q2. And much in the same way we had closed plants safely and efficiently, we're able to reopen very quickly. And very quickly, we were able to get back and serve our clients in the marketplace. So strong recovery in activity levels across ROI from June onwards, quickly recovering to pre-COVID levels. Several notable contract wins during the year in the North of Ireland and the South were the N52 and the second phase of the Dublin airport runway and the maintenance contracts on the M1 and the A4 in North. And for the third year, our aggregate strategy continues to progress well. Volumes have been up year-on-year despite COVID impact. The cement business progressed well during the year. We had 2 shutdowns completed on time and on budget in the first half. The second shutdown at Hope was delayed to Q1 2021 to support production because we knew volumes will be compressed in the second half of the year. We have a continuous focus on increasing alternative fuel usage. And I'm delighted to say that Kinnegad now runs at 71%, which from my perspective could be considered to be industry leading. And we've now created a project team at Hope to optimize production overall, and the first part of that is the planning application submitted for alternative raw material use at Hope. We talked earlier about our sustainability agenda, and at Breedon it's always been very close to our hearts and we've always made decent progress. Perhaps we have never quite told the story and we've never quite been able to demonstrate where we were making that progress: So along with the appointment of Donna in May, we carried out our first materiality assessment during 2020 to ensure that what was important to us aligned with the views of our stakeholders and that all key ESG risks were identified. And that's a work in progress, but I'm delighted about the quality and the progress that we're making up to date. We have a nonexecutive director who's formally responsible for sustainability and is working very closely with our group Head of Sustainability. During -- as a year progresses, there'll be further conversations. And we will be communicating targets and road map, which will be presented during 2021 which will show the way ahead in this arena for us. And our purpose and values that were rolled out have now been sort of reintroduced to the business. It was impacted at the beginning of the year because of COVID, but our "making a material difference" program has been rolled out again. And we can already see benefits across the business, but what I would say is where I get absolute commitment to this is so many of our colleagues demonstrated this to each other, to their families and to our clients during this difficult period of COVID. So I truly believe that making a material difference is embedded within our business and will continue to be part of our DNA going forward. So for 2021, and I know Rob will talk about it a bit more, clearly we anticipate the market improving. Forecasts are changing on a regular basis, but at this point we would expect to see significant moves forward in our marketplace. The recovery in GB undoubtedly will be underpinned by residential housing market; and increased infrastructures investment, which the government continues to restate its commitment to. Ireland is still in lockdown a bit more severe than over here, so most of our businesses is closed at this point. It's not really impactful for us because the first 2 or 3 months of the year is generally pretty quiet. What is pleasing is the level of tender opportunities that we're seeing in GB and the North of Ireland and in the South of Ireland, and that gives me confidence for the remainder of 2021. In Ireland, much like the government's commitment to infrastructure spend here, the projects over there are underpinned by the Irish National Development Plan, which has committed over EUR 100 billion investment over 10 years to 2027. So positive ways ahead. We just need some commitment from our clients. We need commitment from spend. And from Breedon's perspective -- Breedon business is great assets, great people. That's been enhanced by the CEMEX transaction, so from our perspective, we're very excited about the prospects of 2021 and we're ready to go as a team. So on that basis, I'm happy to move forward and take questions [ for the CFOs up here ].
Rob Wood
executiveI've just got a bit on outlook that I'm going -- to add in.
Patrick Ward
executiveSorry. Sorry, Rob.
Rob Wood
executiveI mean I think in summary, despite a challenging year with considerable disruption, we are very proud that Breedon has delivered such a robust performance. We could not done it -- we couldn't have done it without the support and the hard work of our colleagues, and for that, we thank them. The priority this year will be to complete the integration of the CEMEX acquisition and to further reduce net debt, but we will not pass up on opportunities to grow and develop our business. Although we remain mindful of the ongoing impacts of COVID-19, with the worst of the pandemic now, hopefully, behind us and some welcome clarity on Brexit, we believe that the prospects for Breedon and for our industry are increasingly positive. Whilst talking about prospects, it's worth commenting on our current market expectations or market expectations for 2021. We understand market consensus for underlying EBIT, CapEx and net debt to be approximately at the GBP 112 million, GBP 61 million and GBP 304 million, respectively. With the COVID caveat, we are comfortable with the EBIT number. We now expect CapEx to be approximately GBP 70 million, which incorporates a full year of CEMEX; and expect net debt to be in the region of GBP 280 million [indiscernible] the appendices. We could also reconfirm that we intend to declare a maiden dividend with our interim results in July. Last but not least, I just really want to thank Pat for his leadership, support and friendship over the last 5 years; and wish him all the best for the future. Thank you.
Patrick Ward
executiveI think now we can take questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Okay, we'll take our first question from Christen at Numis.
Christen Hjorth
analystThree questions from me, if that's okay. The first one: You've referred to the CPA forecasts in there. I do know they -- that CPA is quite bullish on infrastructure activity in 2021, with significant increases. I was just wondering on your take on that and perhaps what you're seeing [ on the ground ]. And secondly, you've also referred to the government's commitment to infrastructure activity, and this is one of my questions. If it comes through in earnest as expected, does the industry have the capacity currently in place to meet that demand? [ And I think there's a regional ] dynamic, for example, that capacity will need to [ be HS2 ] for that work. And then finally, I know you're going to give more detail later in the year on sustainability but just wondering if you could just give a bit more color on the current work streams that are underway. I know you referred to Hope, for example, and alternative fuels there, but any more color would be greatly appreciated.
Rob Wood
executiveOn the CPA forecasts, I mean, they have been changing and ever since the lockdown. As the business has recovered and as the industry recovered, the CPA forecasts have got more positive. I think directionally we're comfortable with the direction, and we accept it's underpinned by infrastructure. Whilst the governments remain committed to that expenditure, directionally we are comfortable with those forecasts. And I think, in terms of the, well, linking on the government's commitment to infrastructure and the capacity, it's clear that, if the spending comes through over the next few years, there will be constraints in the industry. And pressure will be put on to meet demand, but that's something that we and the industry will be looking to try and manage in the months and years ahead.
Patrick Ward
executiveI mean, adding to that, I think what's important there is early commitment to projects and visibility from government and clients because in general the constraint tends to be the distribution, not the production. So for us, we have capacity in several areas that's underutilized. And we can ramp that up quickly, but what -- it's the distribution paths. It's the rail and road networks that need to be put ahead of time to get them delivered. I think we've talked in the past that one area we do see a shortage of materials, maybe in the Midlands area, as HS2 progresses, but that can be solved with some early decision-making and transparency and where the projects are and the time lines for these projects.
Rob Wood
executiveOn the sustainability sort of road map, significant progress has been made. And that materiality matrix that's been undertaken by Donna and the team over the last few months is really what's going to inform that road map. I don't think today is the right day to communicate, but during the course of '21, it's something that we will come back and engage with the market with and share our road map and also share an enhanced set of KPIs to track that progress against that road map.
Operator
operatorOkay, we'll take our next question now from Anastasia at UBS.
Anastasia Solonitsyna
analystA few, if I may. Firstly, on sources for margin improvement this year, if you can break down contribution. How much was CEMEX enhancements related? And what relates to enhancements in the overall business? In what way? Or more specifically if you can give us more color on this. And it would be also helpful if you can provide some more details on margin progression by segment, Great Britain, Ireland, cement. And where do you see mid-term margins landing? Is it still at the level of 15% you mentioned earlier? And how long do you think it will take you to get there? And my second question is on M&As. With the past deleveraging last year, you're already on a path to a more comfortable level of below 2x leverage. When do you expect to return to new M&As? Do we have some potential targets already in discussion? If yes, can you give more details what regions you are focusing more specifically? And could we expect you will be looking for some -- sorry for the noise. Could we expect what -- you will be looking for some bolt-ons already this year? And on other side, I also understand you try to reduce your debt, so how do you balance on [ that ]? What's headroom do you think you've got for a potential acquisition? And the last question is on contracting business. How do you see its contribution in overall sales and profits growing this year and in the future? What's the target share in overall business? And could you please remind on the difference in terms of margins of contracting versus the rest of your business? And will you need some more investments in this field this year and next year in terms of CapEx or any other investments?
Rob Wood
executiveOkay, I'll try and answer that. In terms of contribution, the -- for the 5-month period where -- CEMEX contributed GBP 4 million at the underlying EBIT level. You asked about how margins will progress across the divisions. I think the key first step is restoring the margins back to historic levels and then starting to move them forward. So we would expect to see -- as the business normalizes in 2021, we would expect to see margin improvement across the divisions. So that's our sort of primary requirement. In terms of sort of medium-term targets, we still aspire to achieve that 15% margin target in the medium term, but the key thing for us is making sure that we don't let pursuit of that target in isolation restrict us and prevent us from organically or through acquisition growing this business and improving shareholder value. In terms of M&A, you're right. We -- given where we've ended the year in terms of net debt and with existing headroom and -- of GBP 300 million, we're in a much better position than we anticipated we would be 6 months ago. We do have priorities for '21. They are about integrating CEMEX. They are around debt reduction, but we do have an active pipeline of bolt-ons. And if something else did come forward, we believe we've got the bandwidth to be able to consider it. And the last question was around contracting: And I think we believe we've got quite a scope to grow that business over the next few years. The -- our MD who we've just appointed has really only been in that position for a week or 2, so again today isn't the day, but I think from a market point of view the key thing is it's -- if you look at our business model, it's all about the vertical integration and routes to markets and benefiting from the aggregate and the asphalt and so making sure -- ultimately, the contracting margin is a lower-margin product, but when you combine it with the aggregates and asphalt margin, it becomes value -- very value enhancing.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Clyde at Peel Hunt.
Clyde Lewis
analystA couple of questions, if I may. I'm just wondering if you can sort of run through, I suppose, the sort of order/sort of inquiry outlook you've had sort of across your regions, thinking sort of Ireland, Scotland, which is clearly a little bit different to England as well at the moment; and then I suppose, around your expectations on the product front. I mean clearly you said ready-mixed concrete was a bit tougher last year. Would you expect that to reverse this year given the end markets that you expect to bounce back? And the last one was on dividends. Obviously, I saw announcement you're going to pay a dividend this year. What should we be expecting in terms of sort of cover? Are you going to be thinking in terms of cover? Or are you thinking in terms of a cash element or a percentage of net assets? Just to sort of help us sort of try and sort of set the right sort of expectation level for this year.
Rob Wood
executiveIn terms of the outlook for the markets, I mean, generally across the markets we operate in, we think the outlook is positive. We think -- in the Midlands and GB, we think demand should recover strongly and particularly as some of the HS2 spending starts to come through. In the South of Ireland, when we do get out of lockdown, we do expect particularly the sort of seasonal laying business to recover strongly. In Scotland we've benefited from projects and continue to benefit from projects like the A9, but we've also seen the Scottish government releasing additional funds into road maintenance. So it's not just one area. You asked about concrete, and as we said, I mean, the performance in 2020 on concrete sort of mirrors its exposure. I think our view is -- and we've seen some of the other company announcements in recent days. We expect the housing market to perform more strongly in '21. So that should help the concrete volumes. We also see some of the -- probably the sort of challenges in the commercial sector being offset by probably additional spend in sort of distribution and logistics, so hopefully, that will help to underpin some of those volumes as well. In terms of dividend, Clyde, we -- I mean, as we mentioned when we first announced our intention, I mean, our view is, over a period of time, to move out the payout ratio in line with our peers.
Operator
operatorOur next question will come from Cedar at Morgan Stanley.
Cedar Ekblom
analystTwo questions from me. Firstly, are there any learnings from COVID that you can take forward maybe as it relates to running lower working capital, maybe as it relates to maintenance? Is there potential that your business is actually a more nimble, leaner business on a permanent basis going forward because of COVID? And then my other question relates to what you're seeing on the project side. We know that there is a strong pipeline for infrastructure in the U.K., but some of your peers have alluded to the fact that there are some delays that are actually being seen as it relates to sort of finally awarding contracts. I don't know if you're seeing the same, and maybe you could give us some color on that.
Patrick Ward
executiveMaybe I'll tackle the -- maybe the operational base question, and Rob can deal with the others. We won't have significant change to our business coming out of COVID because what COVID reaffirmed to us is that we were a pretty lean and agile organization. So we had the opportunity -- as we were coming out of COVID, as we brought plants back, we could be -- we could put pressure on those plants and those local distribution clusters to service the market. So we brought them back sort of sequentially, and to be fair, we've ended up very close to what we originally had. We haven't had wholesale redundancies through the business. So what -- where is this disappointing? It hasn't brought in significant opportunities in changing the business model. It's very pleasing that it's reassured that we were -- I think we were everything we always said we were, lean and agile, quick at decision-making and well invested in.
Rob Wood
executiveI think, if I move on to the project pipeline. I mean delays have been a sort of part of normal business for the 5 years that Pat and I have worked together here at Breedon and even in our former lives before that. So I mean I think the difference now is that there is a lot more momentum than there has been, but delay is a part of normal business on those larger projects. But we can definitely see momentum.
Patrick Ward
executiveActually maybe I'll change my answer a little bit now. You've sort of prompted a thought in my head as I sat here. And maybe the one area we'll reaffirm is in health and safety and the well-being of our colleagues because clearly we had a decision to make at senior management level. Are we as visible and engaged in the sites? Or is it -- the more prudent thing and the better visible leadership is to stand back and not visit a lot of sites and cause the risk of transmission? I'm absolutely committed to the health and safety and well-being of our colleagues. I know that it's an attribute of Rob's, and I know that he will continue that when he takes over the role. So for us, we did see a change in an increase in incidents in the business, so we are committed to sort of reinvigorating and raising the engagement and the physical sort of engagement with every part of our business. So the learning there is we've always been at that level of boots on the ground and out in the plants and being engaged. It fell off a bit during COVID for correct reasons. We made a conscious decision not to be touring around sites and taking the risk of transmission, but I think, and Rob I know is committed to it as well, we'll be back on that.
Operator
operatorOkay, we'll now takes our next question from Robert at Davy.
Robert Gardiner
analystBest of luck, Pat. I know it's your -- it's going to be your last results, so thanks very much. It's always been a pleasure. I'll ask 3. One, you made comment on the energy input costs. Just anything you're seeing for 2021 in likes of asphalt, bitumen but also CO2? Just wondering how does that change for you now. Two, I'm just wondering. Would you mind just summarizing some of the costs and expenses that potentially come back to the business in '21? So you've mentioned the likes of maintenance and the GBP 30 million swing in terms of cash working capital. Just if you can just summarize those again. And lastly, just on your cement margin in H2. Very, very strong, so I'm just wondering, is that just better volumes or better throughput? Or what's driving that?
Rob Wood
executive[indiscernible]? So on the costs side, Robert, you mean we -- I mean, as we've said before, we tend to progressively hedge into the market. So whilst we do see market inflationary pressures, around hydrocarbons and around energy, we do have a degree of hedge for our business for '21. For CO2: CO2 is quite interesting because the U.K. now has its own scheme. And the auctions aren't due to commence until May, so -- but there will be -- it bit mirrors pricing in the EU ETS given spot prices. There will be inflationary pressure, but in terms of material costs to the overall Breedon's results, CO2 isn't one of the more material costs. Sorry. Your second question, I've missed, Rob. Sorry.
Robert Gardiner
analystSo yes. I'm just wondering if you wouldn't mind kind of just sum up the costs that potentially come back to the business. So you've deferred maintenance. [ I assume ] working capital potentially unwinds a little bit. You've called out GBP 30 million there. I'm just wondering around other kind of deferred cash out, expenses or anything like that.
Rob Wood
executiveI think, a way of looking at it, there is the GBP 30 million of working capital that we've said will reverse in '21. In terms of costs, I think really it's about normalizing the second quarter. There was a huge, huge fixed-cost element of the second quarter which needs to be normalized. It's we still did preventative maintenance generally across the business during the course of '21. Shutdown for us in all our markets was really only April and May. The one thing that you mentioned on your third question was about the cement margin, and what you have to remember is that we were able to defer the second shutdown at Hope that was due to happen in the second quarter until 2021. And I think historically we've told you that one of these shutdowns normally costs about GBP 2.5 million in terms of impact on earnings.
Operator
operatorWe'll now take our next question from Graeme at Shore Capital.
Graeme Kyle
analystJust 2 questions from me, please. First, the acquisition [ table. I mean just looking at that. Are we different to that ], please? Are we still talking [ the 4 ] major shedding assets here, or are we talking bolt-ons? Or do you expect both to continue to happen? So that's the first question. The second question is on gross margins coming down. Is that anything to do with CEMEX U.K. coming into the business, or is it purely the fixed costs because -- [ again because ] of COVID? And on that, can you give some guidance on gross margins for FY '21?
Rob Wood
executiveIn terms of the acquisition pipeline, Graeme, we have an active pipeline of opportunities primarily for bolt-ons, and we will continue to progress that. We -- I mean, as we've said numerous times before, we're not in full control of the timing of those transactions, but we do have an active pipeline and we do see opportunities on bolt-ons or other potential assets. CEMEX was quite a big one from -- in effect, from a sale from a major, but we do believe there could be other opportunities in the future as well. In terms of margins, we -- the impact primarily on 2020 was COVID in the second quarter, but you are right. The CEMEX margin was dilutive. In terms of '21, our challenge will be just recovering margins to where they've been historically. We've given out the earnings guidance. And I think we can look at the revenue as a separate sort of discussion, but a key thing for '21 is around just restoring historical levels before we move forward.
Operator
operatorWe'll now take a follow-up question from Clyde at Peel Hunt.
Clyde Lewis
analystThat must be a mistake. Sorry. I pressed it again. Sorry.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] So we'll now go to our next question, from Pierre at Barclays.
Pierre Sylvain Rousseau
analystI will have a follow-up on the U.K. carbon market. Obviously, visibility is quite limited for [ us analysts ] at the moment, so do you have first insights into how it could work? There's a step change in the EU ETS taking place this year, so do you think that the U.K. carbon market could reproduce that, meaning that you will have lower allowances going forward in your business and especially in the cement business? Any color on that will be welcome.
Rob Wood
executiveWe -- I don't think any of us have got a huge amount of visibility. I think the current intention is for it to largely mirror the EU ETS. And I think, given the course of time, there might even be tradability between those markets, but I think in the short term we're really going to wait until the first auctions happen in May to get a better understanding. But I think the principles of it are loosely modeled on the European model.
James Brotherton
executiveAnd to put some quantum around that: We spend a high single-digit million in terms of our carbon offset each year.
Pierre Sylvain Rousseau
analystOkay. That's very helpful. And then another question, please, on the CEMEX integration potential as well. You've mentioned that the priority was to return to historical margins in that business. It really depends if we look 1, 2 or 3, 4 years back in time, so what's the -- what could be the direction and the timing in the midterm for some margin recovery in that business specifically?
Rob Wood
executiveI think we haven't -- the priority #1 is to deliver the synergies that we've committed to. I think longer term, Pierre, we generally don't believe why that CEMEX -- the CEMEX assets can't deliver a margin which is comparable to our GB margin, but it's not something that's going to happen over a year. But over the longer term, it will be -- it is our challenge to restore that business to comparable margins.
Operator
operatorOkay. We'll return, take our next question from David at Goodbody.
David O'brien
analystJust following up on contracting. Can you confirm that the contracting business is fully backward integrated into your own materials? And if we look at the parts of your business that are integrated, was there any discernible variance in performance over the last 6 months particularly between those? And as a color: How integrated do you want to be in the contracting going forward? Or the potential size of the contracting business. Secondly, you've outlined some ambitious sustainability targets. And it's a clear theme across the sector, [ many ] sectors. What type of costs should we be thinking about in order to deliver them in terms of longer-term CapEx and CapEx numbers that should be in our minds? And finally, just to bring you back: You talked about the aspiration of the 15% EBIT margin. What does that equate to in terms of return on capital target? And what kind of time line is reasonable to achieve back into double-digit returns?
Rob Wood
executiveIn terms of the contracting, yes, the primary aim of that business is to provide that vertical integration for our asphalt and our aggregates business, so -- and I think that's something that we will continue to update the market on as the months and years unfold, but we wouldn't have appointed an MD for that business in GB if we didn't have a clear intent to grow it. In terms of -- I think was it sustainability targets. Or was it to do with cost? Was...
David O'brien
analyst[ I suppose the ] costs of delivering those sustainability targets medium term.
Rob Wood
executiveFine. So I think, I mean, within our sort of projections going forward, we will have CapEx involved to enhance things like alternative fuels and things in the cement business. And we would expect to manage that CapEx broadly within the guidance that we give out to the market. I think longer term, for the cement industry, the real challenge is around the process emissions and the technology that would be required to abate those. At this stage, there isn't proven commercial technology, for example, on capture and storage. And so at this stage, it's not -- we're not able to quantify that, but in the longer term if we're going to meet the challenges and the targets for 2050, we're going to need technological change. And there could be -- as an industry, there could be significant CapEx.
Patrick Ward
executiveAnd David, I will say, [ that side ], as we move towards the development of products of a more sustainable nature, we firmly believe that those are margin enhancing and not necessarily are costs further into the business.
Rob Wood
executiveOn your last question, in terms of ROIC. I mean our objective #1 will be to restore it to where it was pre 2020 and COVID and then look to progress it. We don't have a formal target at this stage for ROIC, except for the fact that we say we -- it needs to be ahead of WACC, but I think, as we look to 2021 and we look further, it's likely that we might set a harder target.
Operator
operatorOkay, just before we wrap up, can I just double check, Kevin, whether you wanted to ask a question? I wasn't sure whether your hand was raised or not there. You can nod or shake your head if you prefer.
Kevin Cammack
analystYes -- hang on. Mark, can you hear me? Am I unmuted...
Operator
operatorYes. Okay.
Kevin Cammack
analystCan you hear me okay?
Patrick Ward
executiveYes.
Rob Wood
executiveYes.
Kevin Cammack
analystWell, it's 2 very quick questions, but just before asking those, like others, I would like to wish Pat very well for the future; and just to assure him from an analyst's point of view, and I'm sure I speak for all of us, that we fully recognize the immense contribution you've made to the business in the last 5 years. And I guess shareholders certainly should thank you for that, if not necessarily [ last ], but great job. And we wish you all the well. Two questions. Firstly, I'm just quite interested by the big differential in forecasts, CPA forecasts, between GB and Northern Ireland. I mean significant difference in terms of the current year. And without having any of the detail behind that, I'd be curious to know if that's something you recognize as likely to happen this year and whether or not that's got anything whatsoever to do with the issues of cross-border trading in Ireland post Brexit. Maybe you can touch on that. And the second question really is a very simple one on pricing. I assume you've listed your increases across the main product areas for this year. And can you just very briefly sum whether they fully cover, if not more, the expected cost increases coming through into the business in the current year?
Rob Wood
executiveKevin, in respect of Northern Ireland, do you mean -- I think we've said a number of times, but the absence of the assembly has led to delays. And sort of -- and out of all of our sort of areas of the business, it's probably -- that's probably created more challenges, so -- and it's not a cross-border Brexit issue. It's to do with the lack of the assembly. In terms of pricing, we would -- we expect to continue to make progress on pricing. I think that the one challenge that we might have, which won't be a new challenge, will just be around sort of asphalt and bitumen. And as we've said on a number of occasions, whilst we have an element of hedge and we have an element of indexation on some contracts, we do progressively price. And there's sometimes a lag between the cost increase and the price recovery, but we're not expecting anything more structurally from that.
Kevin Cammack
analystI mean -- but -- perhaps I'm wrong, but I would have thought currently that's probably less of a challenge, isn't it, than it has been in other years. I mean asphalt pricing presumably is -- I mean the bitumen element of it, I assume, is sort of fairly benign, isn't it, at the minute.
Rob Wood
executiveNo, it's a sizable cost element. And I think it's more to do with when you look at where oil prices are, when you look at them and where they were last year. And I think they're touching sort of $70-ish now.
Operator
operatorAt that's great. At this stage, we have no further questions, so I'd just like to turn it back over to Pat for any concluding remarks.
Patrick Ward
executiveOkay. Well, I appreciate everybody taking the time today. Maybe the last comment I'll make is, over the last 18 months, we've had significant change in Breedon Group Board, and we're delighted with the contribution of our Chairman and the new nonexecutives. And at this point, as we move forward with further changes, I'd like to wish Rob and James well in their new role. I have every confidence they'll perform well. And from my perspective, Breedon is in really good hands. And they should make sure they take the opportunity to enjoy it because it's an absolutely brilliant company, and I'm very pleased for both of them. And I'm very pleased for the company going forward.
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