Bubs Australia Limited (BUB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Bubs Half 1 FY '25 Results Briefing. My name is Reg Weine, and I am the CEO and Managing Director of Bubs. And joining me on the call today is our new Chief Financial Officer, Naomi Verloop; and our General Counsel and Company Secretary, Peter Cope. Before we get into the results briefing, I would like to draw your attention to our disclaimer on Page 2 of the presentation and now on the screen. The agenda and content for today's presentation. We'll firstly cover the Half 1 FY '25 results and highlights. I'll then discuss Bubs' strategy and the significant and sustained progress we are now making on each one of our 5 strategic pillars and our plan to responsibly manage capital and maximize shareholder value. I'll then provide an update on our outlook and path to sustained profitability, and then I'll briefly touch on what I consider to be Bubs' investment highlights and the ingredients that make us such a strong investment proposition. Looking at our Half 1 FY '25 financial results and key messages. We are very pleased to provide today's update on our strong Half 1 group results and our continued progress and execution against our strategic plan. Firstly, and importantly, we achieved a positive net profit after tax of $3.6 million, an $11.2 million improvement on the prior corresponding period. Our Half 1 EBITDA was also positive at $0.5 million, an improvement of $7.5 million compared to Half 1 FY '24. We delivered significant improvement in Half 1 net cash used in operating activities of just $500,000 versus $12.2 million in Half 1 FY '24. With $17.2 million cash on hand plus $5 million in undrawn debt, we are well funded. Our gross profit optimization and expansion is tracking well ahead of plan, delivering 50% gross profit margins in Half 1 FY '25. And Half 1 revenue was up 23% on prior corresponding period to $48 million, with all regions showing strong growth over PCP. As I said, we are seeing good revenue growth and momentum in all key regions. Noting that our Australia sales back in Half 1 FY '24 included sales of excess raw materials of $2.3 million and third-party contract manufacturing canning services of $600,000. The underlying growth half-on-half on the Australian core portfolio is therefore 16%. And as you'll see later in the presentation, we have a record market share domestically and are growing 6x faster than the category. Our gross margin exceeded our target of 40%, coming in at 50% for the half, driven by higher margin, new pack formats in the U.S., better inventory management, lower ingredient and packaging costs and favorable foreign exchange. For the very first time, Bubs is now profitable, and our Half 1 EBITDA was positive $0.5 million and our profit after tax was $3.6 million, after accounting for the realized and unrealized FX gains, which we have now moved below the EBITDA line. I'm also pleased to report that Bubs' portfolio is performing strongly with 86% of revenue coming from our high-margin infant formula products. Turning to our balance sheet. We had $17.2 million in cash at 31 December and a further $5 million in undrawn debt in our trade finance facility. As I mentioned, net cash used in operating activities was just $500,000, down from $12.2 million in the prior corresponding period. I'll now hand over to our CFO, Naomi, to provide an update on our Half 1 P&L, balance sheet and cash flow.

Thank you, Reg. Following on from Reg's commentary, we've had a strong improvement in profitability since half year FY '24 with revenues increasing to $48.5 million from $39.4 million, which is an uplift of 23% compared to the first half in the prior comparative period. This is all driven by increased revenues in the USA and strong demand for our portfolio of products servicing the USA market. Gross margin dollars have improved to $24.4 million, mainly off the back of higher sales in the USA and continued growth in all markets. We have maintained a gross margin of 50%, which is in line with the prior comparative period, and this is all driven by strong inventory management and strong market positioning of our products. Operating costs as a percentage of revenue have also decreased favorably to 52% compared to 68% in the prior period. Brand marketing as a percentage of revenue increased to 16% from 13%, and this is due to the additional investment we made to launch our new global branding and product portfolio. Positive EBITDA of $0.5 million has significantly improved from a loss of $6.2 million in the prior period, reflecting the higher-margin pack formats and the rationalization of SKUs. Net financing income is mainly as a result of foreign exchange gains arising from favorable movements between the AUD and USD, which has led to a net profit result of $3.6 million. Turning now to the balance sheet. Overall, total current assets have increased by $3.3 million, mainly due to an increase in trade receivables of $1.4 million. This is driven by the increase in revenues as well as inventories increasing due to the timing of purchase of bulk powders. Current liabilities have also increased compared to prior period, and this is due to the increase in trade payables of $1.9 million. This is largely driven by negotiating better terms with suppliers on bulk powder purchases. Our borrowings are steady at $5 million, showing the ability of our business to fund working capital without taking on extra debt. Looking now at cash flow. A very positive result on cash, as Reg mentioned just prior, with just $0.5 million of net cash used to fund operating activities. This compares to $12.2 million in the prior period. The main driver for this growth is predominantly sales, which has led to a corresponding increase in customer receipts of $9.3 million. Overall, the cash position result is significantly improved with only an additional $0.3 million of the cash at bank balance used since June '24. This reflects our strong focus and discipline on working capital management. Looking now to gross margin. Gross margin has significantly improved over the 3 year trajectory going from 38% to 50%. This is due to a few factors, namely the new higher margin pack formats in the USA, better market positioning of our products and lower ingredient and packaging costs. Turning now to our revenue streams. You can see our key revenue streams are infant formula and adult goat dairy products. Infant formula has grown from 55% of the revenue base in first half '22 to 86% in first half '25. Infant goat milk formula, a key revenue generator for the business, now comprises 67% of our total infant milk formula revenues. I will now hand back over to Reg for a strategy update.

Thank you, Naomi. And now moving to the strategy. In early July of 2023, we announced our strategic review and our simple but achievable 5 point plan to responsibly manage capital and maximize shareholder value. I'm pleased to say our turnaround is gathering pace as demonstrated by our half year results. And whilst we have a huge amount of momentum behind the business, there is still more to do. I'm pleased to say that we have done what we said we would do and that our turnaround is very much on track. Full year net revenue of $102 million is in sight, although consumer sentiment in the U.S. market is weakening. We said we needed our gross margin percentage to be 40% or better and that we would build out our gross margin percentage each year. And we're well ahead of plan, as Naomi said, with 50% gross profit delivered in Half 1. Critically, we continue our meaningful progress on the FDA approval for permanent access to the USA market with our infant enrollment now complete. Bubs is conditionally approved by Health Canada to launch into the Canadian market, and we are now evaluating our go-to-market strategy and timing for entering the Canadian market. And finally, we've been very clear on our ambition to be EBITDA positive for the full year before share-based payments and to be cash flow positive in Q4, and we remain very much on track and ahead of where we thought we would be at this stage. Now looking at each strategic pillar in a little more detail, starting with the USA. The USA remains our big bet, but certainly not our only bet, as you saw from our strong performance by region. The USA contributed 48% of total revenue in Half 1 FY '25, up from 46% in Half 1 '24. And our total U.S. revenue in Half 1 FY '25 was $23.2 million, a 28% increase on prior corresponding period. As you can see from the bar chart on the left-hand side of the screen, we are getting nice consistent growth half-on-half, and we expect that growth will continue. In terms of our market performance, just a reminder that the total USA infant milk formula market size, excluding the subsidized WIC program is $5.5 billion. Bubs plays in the premium/natural better-for-you segment within that category that has a market size of $420 million and includes both goat and bovine or cow brands, and it's grown at 47%. Bubs holds a 10% share of this premium/natural better-for-you segment. The total goat infant milk formula market in the U.S. is now worth $82 million and growing at 281% on a moving annual total basis, and Bubs holds 33% or 1/3 of this market segment. Overall Bubs' market share in the USA of total IMF is 0.9% or just under 1%. And when you compare that to Bubs 5.6% share of the Australian total IMF market, there is a significant runway for future growth. Total USA revenue of $23.1 million in Half 1 represents a 28% increase on Half 1 FY '24. However, the rollout of our new pack formats did impact sales in Half 1. The good news is that the old formats have now been completely sold out in the marketplace, allowing management to focus sales and marketing efforts on our new high-margin packs, which are selling for 10% more than our old SKUs on a per gram basis. I'd also like to mention that Amazon temporarily suppressed some of Bubs products in Q2 of FY '25 due to new pack format documentation compliance issues in their system. This issue has now been fully resolved, and we are already seeing Amazon sales improving week-on-week. As you know, our playbook is to replicate our Australian success in the goat IMF market in the USA, and our results to date clearly demonstrate our progress. Most of our shareholders will have seen this FDA pathway before. And despite being a few months behind our original timeline, we remain very much on track for permanent FDA approval by October 2025, providing access to the world's second largest IMF market and providing a long runway of sustainable growth. At the end of Q2 2025, Bubs finalized its infant enrollment for the growth monitoring study and clinical trial. It's a triple-headed trial and one of the largest IMF trials ever undertaken. A total of 478 infants or babies have been enrolled in the clinical trial, and with the enrollment phase now complete, the study remains active whilst the remaining infants complete the 16 week period of participation and evaluation with the last infant completing the trial on the 19th of April 2025. The completion of the enrollment phase is a significant step towards market access in the U.S., and we'll see the submission of the completed clinical trial and our supporting documentation to the U.S. FDA by 30 June 2025. Of course, Bubs continues to make meaningful progress against the regulatory milestones and FDA Transition Plan guidance, and we remain on track for permanent access to the U.S. market in 2025. Moving now to our second strategic pillar, the China reset. The China market remains the world's largest infant formula market and a strategically important market for Bubs. And for the first time since 2016, the China birth rate increased year-on-year by 5.8% with 9.5 million births in 2024. Our China revenue was up 45% over prior corresponding period to $10.2 million, and we are getting above-market growth in the cross-border e-commerce or CBEC channel, whilst expanding rapidly in the online to offline channel. It's fair to say that strong sales momentum and consumer confidence has been restored in the CBEC channel. With China's major CBEC channel, the total IMF category grew by 10% in Half 1 compared to Half 1 FY '24. Bubs goat IMF, a new formulation launched in Half 1 FY '25 successfully achieved greater than 60% growth in the CBEC channel, demonstrating Bubs' brand strength as well as returning and new customer acquisition. In July of 2024, Bubs refocused its efforts on China's O2O channel and store numbers have grown by over 700 outlets from June 2024 to now with 1,050 stores now stocking Bubs products at the end of January 2025. In the coming years, we expect that O2O stores will expand to 5,000, increasing our coverage from 61 cities in 20 provinces to 99 cities in 33 provinces. And the number of provinces with more than 100 stores is expected to grow from 1 to 11 by FY '29. Bubs continues to grow strongly and profitably in China within its premium niche. We have a really strong brand portfolio to build on with Goat, Supreme and CapriLac. Supreme is our A2 protein premium brand, and the A2 segment in China is now 20% of the total IMF market and growing at 14%. Our premium price architecture is fully restored with a greater than 20% increase in our average RRP. Our channel expansion in online to offline is progressing really well, as I mentioned, with 1,050 stockists. We've also upgraded our IMF formulation specifically for the China market, and we have further NPD and innovation planned for China. And it was great to see our recent success at the Maternity and Baby category awards in Shanghai in January of this year. Quickly touching on our Pillar 3, portfolio optimization. Our Bubs portfolio is now in really good shape. As mentioned earlier, 86% of our revenue is from our high-margin IMF products. Our average selling price in the USA is now 10% higher per gram than our old tins, which has supported our gross margin expansion to 50%. As Naomi said, we have reduced our SKU count, which helps with managing our inventory and our working capital. And our brand tracking and market share gains indicates our brand awareness, purchase intent and equity is increasing in all markets. Sweating the assets is strategic pillar 4. Our Deloraine factory is running like a well-oiled machine at the moment with utilization sitting at 79% in Half 1, based on a 2 shift operating 5 days per week. I think it's really important to note that we have significant headroom in operating leverage, which will support our growth and the increase in demand for our products globally, and we can easily move to a third shift when required. Moving to our final and perhaps our most important pillar, working capital. I'll now hand back to Naomi.

As mentioned in the previous cash flow slide, Bubs has been very focused on strong working capital management with just $0.3 million of net cash used for the half year through 31 December. Growth in our key U.S. market as well as working capital discipline and lower one-off expenses have all attributed to this improved result. We do expect working capital to fluctuate over Q3, but we do anticipate to be positive cash flow for Q4 FY '25. Back to you, Reg.

Thank you, Naomi, and turning to our performance in Australia. In our home market, Bubs remains the clear market leader in the domestic goat formula -- infant milk formula market, holding a record 55% market share. We remain one of the fastest-growing brands in the Australian major retailers growing at 12% or 6x faster than the market growth of 2%. Demand for Bubs goat milk remains very strong, growing at 24% on a moving annual total basis, which underpins our sustained growth. And in FY '26, we will be launching our essential brand in the Australian market, so watch this space. Moving to Rest of World. We continue to see very encouraging and profitable growth out of our Rest of World region with 85% revenue growth versus prior corresponding period, driven by strong growth in Japan and the Vietnam market. We are currently developing our optimal market entry strategy for Canada. And while we previously envisaged a soft market launch in the second half of FY '25, we now expect to commence selling Bubs products in Canada in FY '26. Let's now move to our outlook and pathway to profitability. What should shareholders expect in FY '25 and the full year? Well, revenue of $102 million, up 28% year-on-year, continued gross margin expansion to approximately 45%, an upgrade from 40% at the start of the financial year. And as Naomi said, we have been deliberately conservative, given the volatility in the FX rate. Our clinical study or GMS FDA submission will be at the end of June 2025 with FDA approval anticipated in October of 2025. We'll be cash flow positive in Q4 FY '25, EBITDA positive before share-based payments for the full year, and we also expect to be net profit after tax positive for the full year. And then lastly, to bring it all together, the Bubs investment highlights. These are the 6 ingredients that I feel make us a strong investment proposition and that contribute towards our competitive moat. We have a large and growing addressable market worth in excess of $100 billion globally. We remain a capital-light business with significant operating leverage, and we are going to continue to focus on cost optimization and working capital. Our Australian provenance and access to high-quality dairy ingredients remains a strength. Our Bubs portfolio is differentiated and distinctive, and our market share and brand equity continues to grow in all markets. We are the only Australian FDA approved infant formula manufacturing facility with permanent access to the U.S. expected in October of this year. And Bubs has grown 45% in the largest IMF market in the world, China; 28% in the second largest IMF market in the world, the USA; and 85% in the rest of world markets. And in all these markets, penetration of goat IMF is very low, providing a long runway for sustained growth. That completes our Half 1 FY '25 results briefing, and we'll now open it up for Q&A. Peter, do we have some questions from our shareholders?

Yes, we do, Reg. The first question is regarding the need for capital raising. Is a capital raise envisaged or will we be able to rely upon our cash and debt facilities?

As I mentioned, the business is currently very well-funded with $17.2 million of cash at the balance to-date plus $5 million of undrawn debt. So, the answer to that question, is there are no immediate plans to raise capital.

The second question regards the possibility of tariffs in the U.S. Question is, without manufacturing facilities in the U.S., does Bubs have any contingency plans in place in the event that tariffs are imposed on Australian goods?

Yes, it's a great question, and it is something that we're very mindful of and alive to that situation. Obviously, Australia has a free trade agreement for dairy with the USA. We also have a trade surplus or the U.S. has a trade surplus with Australia. So, we don't think we're high on the priority list for Mr. Trump in terms of imposing tariffs. There is a possibility, there's been a lot of commentary around a value added tax or a GST type tax applying to all Australian exports. If a 10% tax was applied to Bubs, I think we've got the pricing power in the marketplace to absorb that. If it was a 25% tariff, then obviously, that would have a dampening effect on volume and demand. But it is something that we are planning for, and we do have some contingency and mitigation plans in place. We wouldn't be able to set up a U.S. canning facility in the time required to, I guess, defray that risk entirely, but it is something that we are looking at for the medium and longer term.

The next question relates to the Canadian regulatory process for a market entry into Canada and whether that regulatory process will be satisfied through the U.S. FDA application?

That's a great question. So, we are currently temporarily approved by Health Canada, so we can enter the market today, tomorrow. But we do have to submit our GMS study from the USA trial to Health Canada at the end of the year if we wanted to remain permanently in Canada. So, they will borrow from the clinical trial, which is great news for us, and that would see us permanently in Canada once we launch.

We have a question regarding the USD rate for budgeting purposes. What is your assumed USD rate for your budgeting purposes?

Yes. So, we have taken a very conservative rate for budgeting purposes, and we have used [ 0.69 ]. We continue to use that rate throughout our year-to-go forecast as well.

And one last question at the moment regarding the FDA approval. How do you see the potential ramp-up following that approval to build volume in the market? And how do you -- how rapidly do you see building volumes occurring?

Yes. So, I think, as it relates to the FDA, I don't see a significant uplift in demand for our products either by U.S. consumers or customers, that is retail customers. There have been 1 or 2 retailers in the U.S. that have said to us, look, we'd rather wait until you get FDA approved before we stock you on our shelves, which is fair enough, but they would be in the minority. And then I think consumers, the brand already has 65% awareness in the U.S. market. It's a trusted brand. We have the clean label certification. We won a bunch of awards. So I don't think that FDA approval will have a significant uplift on demand for consumers in the U.S.

I guess another question come in regarding, again, the FDA approval. How do we see the risk of that not occurring? Is that a significant risk or a low risk?

That's a great question. Look, I think we are doing everything we can to ensure success in the FDA clinical trial and GMS study. Obviously, we're well supported by a leading CRO, and we've got clinicians and physicians who have, I guess, gone through this process before. And we have some other external consultants advising the company as we go through this pathway. This is a relatively low bar by clinical trial standards in the sense that it's not an efficacy test. So we are just demonstrating that babies or infants feed on infant formulas grow as per the standard growth charts in the U.S. So, we would be, in a percentage term, 95% to 100% confident that we will get this approval.

That's all the questions we have at the moment, Reg.

Okay. Well, if there aren't any further questions, we might call that a wrap. I'll take this opportunity to thank shareholders for being on the call with us today, and thank you for your continued support of the company and Bubs. Hope to see you soon.