BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 29, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Chase Jacobson
executiveAll right. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for coming. I'm Chase Jacobson, I'm the Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Finance here at BWXT. We're excited to have our 2026 Investor Day here at the NYSE. And thank you to those participating virtually as well. For those of you here in attendance, I think most of you have it, but you can access the presentation using the QR codes on the tables, and you can take the little phone, stand home as well, remember, BWXT. It's also posted on the Investor Relations website. Quick safety note for those in person, in the event of an emergency, please follow NYSE personnel to the exits and a staircase by the elevator banks from which you arrived. So during today's presentation, we'll discuss certain matters that constitute forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, and those are described here in the safe harbor slide. We'll also make reference to non-GAAP financial metrics, which are reconciled to GAAP measures in the appendix of the Investor Day presentation. Okay, for the agenda. So the goal today is to give you an in-depth look at each of our businesses and insight into our many growth opportunities and how we're going to execute on that growth. We'll also be updating our medium-term financial targets. So we'll start with a presentation from Rex Geveden, our CEO. He will provide an overview of BWXT and our strategy. And then we'll move into commercial operations where John MacQuarrie, President of that business, will talk about our super merchant supplier role in the commercial nuclear power market and the large growth potential that we see there. We'll then hear from Joe Miller, President of Government Operations, who will talk about our role, providing nuclear solutions to some of our government's most critical minerals. And then Mike Fitzgerald our CFO will discuss our financial strategy and our updated medium-term targets. And then -- will come back with some closing remarks. We'll take a break at around 10:30 for about 10 minutes, and then come back for a Q&A session. So please hold your questions until then. If you are participating online, you can submit a question at any time through the portal. In addition to our presenters, we have a few other members of our executive team in attendance. A couple of them will come up for the Q&A session with the speakers. So before we begin, we're going to play a short video highlighting BWXT's role in delivering nuclear solutions to our customers' most important missions. [Presentation]
Chase Jacobson
executive[indiscernible] cut of a little bit but that's the key point here. So with that, it's my pleasure to introduce Rex Geveden, our President and CEO.
Rex Geveden
executiveThank you, Chase, and welcome to everyone who joined us here at the historic New York Stock Exchange this morning and to everyone who's listening online. This is unequivocally, one of the most exciting times in the history of this business as a stand-alone public company. I said the same, probably similar words when I stood on this stage 32 months ago, and it was true then, and it's also true now. It's an increasingly exciting story. Throughout the morning, what we will do is give you an update on the state of the business. We're going to talk about the incredibly robust demand environment that we see on both sides of the business, the commercial and the government side of the business, how we're positioned across the value chain to capture those opportunities and convert them into business and then how we intend to execute on that business from the standpoint of operations and capital allocation I'll start with this. We consider ourselves to be a global nuclear industrial champion. That may sound a little provocative or a little bit bold, but I think we'll make that case today when you think about it from a number of different dimensions. We'll validate that claim. If you look at it from the standpoint of revenue scale, we'll do $3.8 billion in sales this year. That's up 19% year-over-year. That's also up from $2.7 billion when I last stood on this stage at the beginning of 2024. So we've grown impressively. I think from the standpoint of sheer industrial scale, it's inarguable what a nuclear industrial champion, we are 5 million square feet of nuclear qualified manufacturing space, and that's growing organically and inorganically. Geographic footprint, certainly heavy in North America, now extending into Europe, and we have aspirations to do more there. Our exposure across the value chain, I think like no other company, you will see and we will talk to that also our 70-year history, which was mentioned in the video. No one can make a similar claim. And then we have these 11,400 employees as it stands today with incredible experiential qualifications doing work that no one does across the nuclear space. I'll also mention that we have I think, a very compelling corporate vision, corporate purpose, which is to deliver innovative nuclear solutions to create a better world. And that's from the perspective of delivering clean energy, providing for the nation security, enabling the exploration and settlement of space. nuclear environmental restoration, great missions that our employees wake up to every day. So in reference to scale and geographic exposure, we have at BWXT 16 major manufacturing sites across North America and Europe. And that compares, by the way, to 6 manufacturing sites when I came into this job over a decade ago. I mentioned the 5 million square feet of nuclear manufacturing space, and that's increasing by the day. We're completing a major expansion at our Cambridge plant. And under John MacQuarrie's leadership. We'll cut the ribbon on that one in about a month from now, major capability, it will lead to having the world's largest nuclear clean room. We also acquired a business called Precision Components Group closed that acquisition a couple of months ago. That added about 10% to our capacity, 500,000 square feet and also, by the way, 500 nuclear qualified employees. And we've invested since I came into this business about $1.8 billion in CapEx in these facilities that's probably a sliver compared to what we've invested historically. So the point there is from the standpoint of scale, we have capabilities and from the standpoint of depth and unique capabilities in those facilities. It would be virtually impossible for a competitor to try to replicate what we have. Now looking at it from the standpoint, slicing it a different angle and looking at it from the standpoint of revenue by segment and product category. As the business stands today, it's about a 70% national security government business and about a 30% commercial business. And that compares to about 80, 25 years ago, 80 government, 20 commercial. The commercial business is the fastest growing. In fact, that business has grown from about $115 million at the time we spun this company out to about $1.1 billion today, growing very fast organically and through acquisition. But the government business tends -- is also growing very impressively with new product categories, new domains of application like in special materials, advanced reactors that will be talking about more today. Now slicing it by revenue by product category, the revenue by product category, about half -- a little bit less than half of our business is in naval nuclear propulsion, which has always been the heart of this business. The commercial power business, as I noted, is about 30% of it. Special materials is somewhere between 15% or 20%. But that one is super interesting because we've got some programs there and special materials that are becoming franchises for BWXT, things like high-purity depleted uranium defense fuels, uranium metal, uranium oxides, we're doing things there that are uniquely that we're uniquely capable of bringing by virtue of our licenses and credentials. And so we expect that to be a larger slice of the pie going forward. Of course, we're exposed to advanced nuclear that's Kate Kelly's business Kate in the audience here today in the front. And that's the home for projects like paylay, the BWXT advanced nuclear reactor, which is under the Janus program. That's where we manufacture TriSofuel and do other national security programs, a very exciting business that's been growing, and we expect to continue to grow. And then there's a little sliver of business there that you see called Technical Services. That's exceedingly small. I think most people in the room know that we don't consolidate revenue in that business because it's executed under joint venture limited liability companies with our partners but we are operating at 14 major sites across North America, including now the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories. But we do defense work, we do environmental restoration in that business. But it moves the bottom line a lot. It's an $80 million equity income business. And so a very exciting business that's grown quite dramatically over the last 10 years as well. It's not just about scale and geographic footprint. I mentioned earlier that we have some highly differentiating credentials and experiential qualifications. And that's what this chart speaks to. I mentioned again, and we say it often, and it has the merit of being true that we're the only commercial business that possesses a Category 1 NRC license. That means we're permitted to handle special nuclear materials. Think of that as high enriched uranium that's used in applications like naval nuclear propulsion requires a special license to do that. And so if a government customer that needs to do some special materials processing, and there is a lot of need for that these days. Then your choices are to go to BWXT or go to a similarly qualified government facility. Those are the only 2 choices. And that's one of the reasons we've been able to -- the special materials part of our business and others have expressed so strongly in the past few years because of that credential and the experiential qualifications that go with that. This chart will also show you how expo we are to fuel. We have delivered 2 million fuel bundles to the Canadian nuclear power market. We are the sole provider for all the nuclear reactors that belong to Ontario power generation, and we've been delivering that fuel for [indiscernible]. We have delivered 9,000 fuel elements for research and test reactors and of course, we're the sole source provider for naval nuclear fuel, which we've been doing for 70 years. And so this is, at its heart, really kind of a fuel business. And it -- and those credentials are the reasons why we can move into things like trisofuel production and advanced fuels for nuclear space. Those are the foundational credentials for that. Now we also have some unique commercial credentials. For example, we have delivered 325 steam generators to the commercial power market under John MacQuarrie's business and their 60 -- backlog. These STING generators are enormous. They're highly engineered, extremely complex products. There's only about 2 or 3 places in the world where you can get these products made, and we're absolutely the world leader in that. So how are we doing as a business? We did stand here 32 months ago in February of 2024 and laid out some targets for some medium-term targets at our last Investor Day. And we define those off the 2023 baseline, the 2023 fiscal year is the baseline, and we define that as the 3- to 5-year period following that. So as we're standing here today and based on our 2026 forecast that we are reaffirming today, here's how we're doing. First off, we delivered -- we forecasted at that time, mid-single-digit revenue CAGR what we delivered is a 15% revenue CAGR, of which 8.5% is organic. Obviously, the rest of that is acquired revenue in very -- from some very high-quality businesses. We expected at the time to deliver mid- to single-digit adjusted EBITDA CAGR, what we instead delivered was 12%, obviously well above target. Now we did have some implied margin expansion in these numbers. And so we won't stick a spear in the ground on that 1 just yet. We have gone into some new businesses that have created some margin headwinds from a mix perspective. but we've got a very clear path to improving those margins over the next medium-term guidance. And you'll hear from Mike Fitzgerald, our CFO, about how we intend to do that and what the margins will look like in 2030 and they certainly will be substantially better than they are today. We forecasted double-digit free cash flow CAGR at the time, and we've delivered 18% instead. And so I think in just about every measure, we've blown out the last Investor Day targets that we gave you. we're going to lay down some aggressive targets here again today, and we hope to stand in front of you in 3 or 4 years and tell you how we crush those targets as well. Now when you think about it from the standpoint of strategic successes across the enterprise, I think there's a lot to say there. I'll mention a couple of these and then leave the rest of them to your consumption. But -- we have been working on sharpening the portfolio, enhancing the portfolio, and we've done that through both acquisitions and divestitures. On the acquisition side in the commercial business, we bought Precision Components Group closed that a couple of months ago, as I mentioned. Also, we've brought Conectric into the business about 1.5 years ago, and that's been a tremendous success for us, a nice growing business, highly differentiated, outperforming the business case for the acquisition. And then on the government side of the business, we acquired a business called AOT that got us into the high purity depleted uranium business shortly after we acquired that business, in fact, 9 months after we acquired that business, we won a $1.63 million billion contract to deliver 2,000 metric tons of high-purity depleted uranium to the U.S. government. And that gave us the full spectrum of uranium assays. So a high strategic acquisition, that one was and then we announced that we are divesting our medical business or at least most of it for $800 million. We are keeping 20% of that business and riding along with what we think is a very interesting growth thesis for business. That one is frankly better off and better off in other hands. The acquirer has a really serious plan for growing that into a global enterprise, and we're going to ride along with that. We like it. The reason for that, that was good for us is because that medical business, frankly, a couple of rings away from the bull's eye and now we have a business after the disposition of that asset that's completely focused on national security and clean commercial nuclear power. So we like what we've done there. I'll also mention that we've really grown our backlog. I'm going to come back to this in a future chart but the backlog growth has gone from $4 billion when I was last on this stage to $8.4 billion. And what's interesting about that is, of course, it gives you a sense of how we're converting opportunity into real business. That's one thing. But the other thing is it underscores the confidence that you should have in the targets that we're going to lay out here when Mike Fitzgerald takes the podium. Now we have a clear view about how we create value in the business and is depicted here in a pretty basic way. And the first is we want to participate in attractive end markets. And we absolutely do that. The national security market, the commercial power market and the constituents that underlie those are very interesting markets right now. They're all growing. And again, it shows up in our backlog. And so we want to be in great markets. We want to be in superior competitive positioning in those markets, and we certainly have made the case for that. with our credentials, with our capabilities, with our depth, with our scale, we are winning. We are winning at a very high rate and you're seeing that in the backlog. And then having captured business, it's all about how we execute and allocate capital. I've said since I came into this business as CEO that the job jar is pretty clear. What I'm supposed to do in this job is run the businesses so well so that they generate cash and then take the capital that's created there and allocated in such a way that you can optimize long-term shareholder value. That's basically Michael [indiscernible] say that and then the first month on the job on a road show to the West Coast. That's how I think about the business. Now there's a bunch of other things I have to do. I have to build the organization have to communicate. I have to do investor days. But that's how I think about it. And so operational excellence has been a focus for us from the beginning, and we're delving down on that of late. We built a program first under Bob Duffy's leadership, and now with Suzanne Mattox called Driving Performance Excellence, where we are applying the principles of continuous improvement everywhere across the business. We're not only driving performance on the shop floor, which we've always been focused on but we're driving performance in the nonoperating elements of the business right now. and it's showing up impressively. It's showing up in terms of millions of dollars that are coming to the bottom line. You've seen our margins creep up throughout the year. Part of it is just driving performance excellence. And so we're focused on that. We also created the position of a Senior VP for Operations under Suzanne [indiscernible], a new position, which creates kind of a home room for operations. And then we're also putting tools including AI tools in the hands of our people so that we can optimize the performance of the organization with the use of empowering technology. Now we said that we like to use nuclear to address some of the world's largest challenges. I've been saying publicly in a few fora and in interviews that I think BWXT kind of uniquely sits at the Ben diagram intersection of economic and national and energy security. And so why is this important for nuclear? When you think about economic security, well, if you think about -- let me back up and say, when you think about what has been -- what has led to the buildup of demand and interest in nuclear on the commercial side, it really sort of started with clean energy, right, with the goal to decarbonize the grid climate change related. And that's been kind of a slow burn, frankly. I think we've been sort of padding the table around decarbonization for a long time. It didn't lead to business, frankly, because the business case needs -- still needed to close for nuclear utilities. So that was thing one. Thing 2 was the electrification of everything. We started to see more demand on the grid from the electrification of transportation and from industrial processes that created new demand signals, which is good for nuclear because baseload -- for clean baseload power, nuclear is increasingly seen as a solution for that in addition to solar men, which are obviously variable power sources. And then I think the surprise demand signal came in November 2022 with the first release of ChatGPT. We didn't know it at the time how important that would be for power demand, but AI is an extremely power consumptive technology. The incremental demand from AI right now is 60 gigawatts, you think about that. That's the electrical output of 60 large nuclear power plants. And I don't see it slowing down anytime soon. So -- and particularly that last element, AI is thought to be probably a cornerstone of economic security. And so leading nations like the U.S., like China and others are trying to win at AI and winning at AI means winning at power and winning at power probably means having a nuclear solution. And so that's the economic security angle for nuclear and for BWXT. On the national security side, there are really 3 layers to the demand there. One is recapitalize [indiscernible] of the nuclear -- as a global power and the need to sort of to recreate that deterrence capability. Obviously, we're involved in the submarines and the aircraft carriers, we provide the fuel and the nuclear reactors and so a hugely important part of our business. The second part of that one, and we saw this a decade ago, and I think we were ahead of just about everybody else on it. We saw that the nation was going to need to rebuild its deterrent industrial base. It literally fall part starting in the early '90s. We stopped doing things like high-purity depleted uranium. We started to stop doing things like making high enriched uranium. We shut down all that stuff and started cleaning it up thinking we would never need it again. I don't know why we thought that, but we did. And so what's -- the consequence of all that is this nuclear stockpile that we had of high enriched uranium and other special materials that only BWXT can manage, can process apart from the government, that stockpile is burning down. There's only so much high in rich uranium. Yes, by the way, we downblended some of it for nonproliferation. By the way, we downblended some of it for processing other materials and in some cases, for doing things like the Pele reactor. So we're burning that stockpile down and somebody has to rebuild it. And we believe that will be us -- the third thing there in the national security stack of demand is the surprising demand, at least for me, of power and propulsion, nuclear power and propulsion applications and other domains. So I talked about Pele and I'll talk about the BWXT advanced mucin reactor. Those are small micro reactors that are used for things like powering military bases. We see the interest for space reactors for both power and propulsion. We know that SYSTlunarspace will become contested in the long run. We need nuclear solutions for the problems that are incipient in that domain. And so those are the 3 things that are stacking up to create demand in the national security space. And then energy security, to me, this is a super interesting one here. This one started also in '19 -- sorry, in 2022, not '19, '22 -- that one also started in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of that year. So we had Russian invasion of Ukraine, ChatGPT in the same year, both of them strongly influencing demand in nuclear. The Russian invasion of Ukraine alerted Europe, particularly, but the rest of the world to the need for energy security and it showed up -- a nuclear shows up in that discussion because it is a very -- those nuclear assets are durable infrastructure that go on for decades, and they provide you energy diversity, and they provide you probably a hedge against fossil fuel price increases. And so all of that has conspired to create a lot of interest and support for nuclear, and we see this as the beginning of a very long cycle of demand, a decade old type cycle of demand, and we sit here on the verge of that. Now I said earlier that we play across the full value chain in nuclear, and that goes all the way from the front end of the fuel cycle to disposal and management of complex nuclear waste streams. So you look across that entire spectrum, enrichment, fuel production, special materials just about everywhere you look in the nuclear space, you will find BWXT. And you will find, by the way, very few of our competitors. They tend to be in one place or another place. I've mentioned earlier that we've won a contract with the U.S. government to provide unobligated enriched material for nuclear fuel for national security purposes. I also mentioned earlier that that's a $1.5 billion contract, but that's just the tip of the spear where the scope of that work is to take the technology out of Oakridge National Laboratory and industrialize it and then to do the planning stages for the back end of high-enriched uranium. But what that leaves out is middle assays, the high assay, low enriched uranium, the low enriched uranium still has to be at unobligated. Unobligated means that everything in that and this is under treaty obligations through the United Nations of the nonproliferation treaty. The unobligated means that it has to be U.S. sourced from tip to tail. That means U.S.-mined uranium U.S. manufactured components, U.S. wound, fiber or whatever it is, it all has to be U.S. sourced. So that's not necessarily a commercial opportunity. It is a unique opportunity for the U.S. government. And so that has to be done to reconstitute defense fuels capability for high-enriched uranium. And we are -- we have the scope for a couple of pieces of that. When you fill the middle parts in, that's where you get into tens of billions of new opportunity that we hope to address. Joe Miller has got a churn on that, and he'll talk more extensively about it. But staying in the realm of the front end of the fuel cycle, we produce all the Navy fuel I mentioned that already, that's a special kind of unique fuel that no one else makes and no one else can make by virtue of not having the licenses or the technological know-how to equip. We make the CANDU fuel, I talked about that earlier through John MacQuarrie's business. We are the sole source provider for Ontario Power Generation, which has aspirations to build a lot of new large reactors, and we hope to make all the fuel for that. And then of course, we are -- we actually are the world's leading supplier of TRISO fuel. There's a lot of competitors out there, noisy competitors that are delivering very modest amounts of TRISO fuel. So we are the largest in that market. If you think about nuclear systems, again, we are the sole provider for naval reactors. We have probably the largest commercial components capability on through our commercial operations business, and we're involved in multiple commercial reactors, various types, heavy water, light water reactors, reactors on all scales -- grid scales from small module reactors to large reactors. That have mentioned also our special materials portfolio, a purity depleted uranium defense fuels, uranium oxide and uranium metal that we're processing for the U.S. government. And then we manage all of these sites for the Department of Energy and now for the Canadian government, doing management and operations of sites and environmental restoration. So we're all over the place in can't stop won't stop is the message there. Now back to this idea that we see ourselves as a global nuclear industrial champion. As I mentioned, if you could slice that in a number of different ways to make that case. I don't think it's a hard case to make frankly. But here's the case from the standpoint of nuclear-related revenues generated in public companies. And this is based off the 2025 results. You can see here BWXT at about $3 billion last year. Our nuclear revenue for this year will be $3.7 billion of our $3.8 billion. We've got a few nonnuclear things, not much transmission and distribution stuff that we do and things like that. But we're sort of 98% nuclear -- the next players would be in that $2 billion range, a couple of those, and then it drops off pretty quickly to $1 billion. I'm talking about nuclear-related revenues generated by the business. So in Curtiss-Wright, that would be one segment of their business as an example. And then it falls off pretty quickly from there. It's notable that then there are public nuclear companies out there that are pre-revenue. So interestingly, the public capital markets have supplanted sort of private equity and venture capital in some ways for some nuclear start-ups. But that's the perspective from revenues and public companies that are nuclear related. Now I mentioned the backlog already, but I'll just show it here graphically, again, going from $4 billion in backlog when I was last standing here to $8.4 billion today. That, if you think about our current run rate, that's 9 quarters of backlog, which, again, I think, highlights 2 important things here. One, it's our ability to take opportunities and convert those into real business. That's number one. And that's what you see there with the buildup of those revenues, particularly in the last couple of years, which have been very exciting for the business. And then the second, I think, notable point is it ought to give you confidence in the medium-term guidance that we're going to present to you today because a bunch of this is in the backlog. Now I mentioned my 2 jobs as the CEO to run the businesses, create the cash and then to invest the capital to optimize long-term shareholder value and this is how we think about the allocation of capital, how we invest. And some of the investments that we make are pretty visible through our Investor Relations efforts. We talked about the expansion of our Cambridge facility, for example, to create the world's largest nuclear clean room and build some very much needed capacity there. The factory is absolutely jammed full right now. So there's no question that we needed that. We've talked about the advanced technology business -- the [indiscernible] Innovation Campus, which is the home of our advanced nuclear programs that belong to Kate Kelly. So we've made a number of those things public and visible, but we're investing in all these areas. We have really been investing in people, Gonzalo Cajade sitting up front here. He's our Chief Human Resources Officer, and we have just a talent campaign that's unbelievable, both at the top of the organization and building down through it. We're absolutely investing in process. I talked about AI, I talk -- I'll talk more about automation and digitalization of the business. We are investing in infrastructure across the board, trying to build this global scale of capacity. And we're investing in digital transformation to lead to the end state of scalable growth. Growth that we can manage and growth that makes sense for the company with our investments. And we do that with certain investment criteria that are shown here on the right. I won't read through those other than to say this. I mentioned earlier that we've invested $1.8 billion in our facility since I occupied the CEO seat. So I am not reluctant to invest in the business. But I will say that I think that -- the investments that we're making in the business are always disciplined and are almost always bearing good fruit. Our acquisitions have been fantastic our human capital acquisitions have led to tremendous talent in the organization and the ratification of this performance culture that we have. And so I really like where we're putting our money and I think it's showing up in our numbers and in our capabilities. So to continue the discussion on automation and digitalization of the business. I talked about how AI impacts the business from the demand side. The power that AI is going to consume and where nuclear would play a role in that. We're, of course, also thinking about how AI impacts the business from the standpoint of our operations. And we've had really 3 streams of effort going on in the digital world for a number of years now that are bearing fruit for the business. And number one is digital transformation. This is where we're sort of upgrading the capabilities, the software capabilities, the core processes like finance, HR, payroll, all those sort of things, bringing those completely up to modern standards. We're going through a very aggressive campaign that we call the digital factory where we are trying to automate literally everything, including doing things like in situ inspections, having digital quality records for everything, digital twin representations for every component that we make, and we're making great strides there. And we had to, right, because our factories are, in some cases, are not very young, and we needed to automate update, digitize. Now we have some greenfield opportunities. Joe Miller will talk about that when he does government operations, greenfield opportunities to build some major new factories for high-purity depleted uranium for manufacturing hundreds of thousands of centrifuges for the government and we'll have a greenfield opportunity there to automate everything and to take those lessons learned and reflect them back into the legacy industrial base. So that's a huge thing for us right now. And then digital workplace. We are putting the latest digital tools into the hands of our engineers and scientists and workers. We're democratizing access to AI. The use cases are extraordinary. We've got one case where -- we figured out how to optimize radiochemical processing waste stream and have saved the government potentially $5 billion and so doing. This is -- and by the way, speaking of which we opened a BWXT digital center in Melbourne, Florida, in February of this year, it's under Kurt Bender's leadership. He's assembled a world-class team down there, which is the reason we built that down there. They were geographically kind of in that area. So we have opened a new facility, you see it there. It's on the water, and that's where we'll have our February Board meetings from now on as it happens. Okay. I want to talk about our leadership team here a little bit. These are the executive team members. I feel so supported, so edified so empowered by this set of leaders, a number of whom are in the room here today. It's an incredible leadership team. It is certainly true that there are a number of new faces on here compared to when I last was on this stage, in fact a lot of new faces. And the reason for that, we're not suffering attrition at the executive level, voluntary attrition. The reason for that is we needed to build the leadership team for the future of this business, which is bigger stronger, more demanding, higher performance culture. We have to build that. And we're trying to go and get Fortune 50 talent in places that we can get it. And I frankly think that we're doing that -- so incredibly powerful leadership team that are taking this -- taking the company to the next stage of growth and capability. Now I'll stop here, and I certainly will return to the stage later to hammer this point home, but here's the investment thesis. First off, BWXT is everywhere across the nuclear value chain. But let me talk about the remarkable characteristics of this business. When I interviewed for this job, to come into BWXT. First as the COO, very briefly and then CEO, I was interviewing with the Executive Chairman and the transitional CEO at the time. And one of the first questions I asked me was why -- it looks like you're in a great place over there at Teledyne Rex. Why would you be interested in a business like BWXT, which, by the way, was thought to be kind of a bond proxy sleep [indiscernible] opportunity in all honesty. And what I said was, look, what's not to like here. You have a core of incredibly powerful, sustainable, defensible businesses here with beautiful financial characteristics, cash generators, reliable businesses around naval nuclear propulsion, the components business and the services business in the Canadian market under John's leadership at the time. And then we had a technical services business that was at a little bit of a low point at the time, but it looked like it could inflect up. And my view of it was, look, you can go and get some of that cash and go and invest it and build some beautiful new businesses like advanced nuclear or special materials. We certainly made some investments in nuclear medicine, which have paid off for us. And so that story remains true today. Now some of those businesses have migrated from new markets, new opportunities into the core. And so the core looks different than it did at the time but it's still what it was then. It is a business that's set up with an incredibly robust set of core businesses that are utterly defensible and then large growth opportunities on top of that. We have a big growth opportunity in defense fuels, a big growth opportunity in high-purity depleted uranium. We have -- I don't know how many micro reactors we're going to deploy around planet earth, but I think it will be a lot. But the biggest thing out there in my perspective is in commercial nuclear power. Now it takes a long time for this to build. These are long-cycle businesses and utilities kind of wring their hands around the business case and all of that. But large nuclear is coming means it's coming because of the conspiracy of force that I talked about earlier. We need clean power. We need to win at AI. We need to expand baseload generation. We need to refurbish and rebuild all these old plants. But let me give you a sense of the scale here, in a 3-decade period over the '70s, '80s and '90s, the global industrial base delivered about 600 large nuclear reactors, more or less in a 3-decade period. You think about that, that's 15 or 20 new reactors a month delivered. And those assets, a lot of those assets are still standing, still generating clean power. The economics are interesting around nuclear because certainly, the capital cost upfront, the capital cost and the cost of capital are daunting things for nuclear, but the fuel is cheap. And I think people don't get that. You can put a gigawatt of natural gas in and the fuel costs are going to be $400 million a year. And by the way, those gas terms are now, what, $3.5 billion or something like that for a gigawatt. So the price is going way up. And by the way, the delivery time line is now 5 or 6 years on those things, right? So nuclear is getting to be more competitive from that perspective. But nuclear fuel costs are going to be something like $60 million a year for a gigawatt. So when you look at it, if you're a patient investor over the course of time, it becomes a cheaper asset to run. And when you think about being able to extend the life of that plant by a factor of 2 for $0.30 on the dollar or whatever that is, those assets become incredibly powerful economic assets, incredibly stable baseload power that utility customers need. And so that's part of the growth story that we're planning for. That's the reason we're expanding Cambridge. That's the reason why we're expanding into the U.S. That's the reason why we're interested in Europe because we believe this uplift is going to come and BWXT is going to be there when it happens. Thank you. With that, I'm going to turn it over to John MacQuarrie to update us on commercial operations.
John MacQuarrie
executiveThank you, Rex. Good morning, everyone. I'm John MacQuarrie I'm President of Commercial Operations. I've been with the company for more than 28 years and in the nuclear industry for more than 30 and I agree with Rex. This is by far the most exciting time that I have seen in my 3 decades in the industry. And it's exciting because we're going through this really large growth cycle -- that looks like it's got a lot of potential to continue to grow at a very high rate. And we're seeing demand for major life extension projects. So for example, we're extending the life by 40 years 14 reactors in Canada. That's more than 500 reactor years that we're adding to the life of those plants, which is just a lot of business in the future that we have good visible predictable demand for. We're also building the Western World's first SMR. So it's under construction. We're making the reactor vessel for that. I'll tell you about that. It's a really fantastic project for us. Beyond that, we're involved in designing components for next-generation advanced reactors. And that's really interesting work. And so designing components that operate at very high temperatures that don't use water as their coolant medium. They use liquid metal or molten salt. And maybe not all of those are going to make it to the market as a commercial product. But where we sit we're involved in helping those technology providers to figure out how to do that. And that's a great business for us. And some of them, for sure, will make it, and we'll be super well positioned to support that. The other thing that's really exciting is that we're seeing this really great alignment between the electrical power industry and governments on the need for a lot more electricity and a lot more nuclear power, which is exciting. We haven't seen that for decades, of course. And all of that is translating into really rapid growth for us. and a solid pipeline unlike anything I have ever seen before. It's orders of magnitude more than what I've seen in our pipeline before in terms of components and services that we bid. So that's exciting. Okay. I want to start with some key messages about the commercial business. So first, we're -- we've built ourselves into a leading supplier of nuclear equipment and services. And we're investing to further expand that leading position to add capacity to add capabilities across the value chain. We've done this because we've got predictable demand from some of the things I just mentioned from life extension work from SMR work from our recurring ongoing services that I'll tell you. But we've got this growing pipeline, as I said, that is unlike what ending I've seen before for new build reactors in Canada and the United States and in Europe that is really, really exciting. And the combination of that, the robust backlog that we have, the bid pipeline that we have support an outlook of strong double-digit earnings growth. Okay. So I've told you some key aspects of our business, but I want to talk about how the business has changed, especially recently. We've been in the nuclear business for 6 decades really since the start of commercial nuclear generation. But more recently, we've been working hard to evolve our business to meet the demand that we see coming to be more capable to be more global. And we've done this because of the demand that we're already experiencing, but also because of the pipeline that we have good visibility to. So if you look at this chart, back in 2020, our business had revenue above $330 million. It was predominantly can do focus can do reactor focused. And about half of that was making components. If you move forward 3 years into 2023, revenue increased nicely to $400 million. And at this point, we're starting to see emerging demand for SMR opportunities. And now you come forward to 2026 to today, and the business has really transformed. It's $1.1 billion that we're expecting in revenue this year, and that doesn't include the medical business. And we've got a significant amount of services that are in our business. We've got a much broader customer base. So we've added a lot of customers in the United States and Europe, a much larger, as I said, service business and more exposure to large-scale reactors and small module reactors than we've ever had before. So over this time, we've gone from being primarily a can-do focused supplier to a global merchant supplier of equipment and services. Okay. So with all of that change, let me give you a sense of some of the key attributes of our business here. And some of them I've just mentioned $1.2 billion in revenue this year. That includes about $130 million of medical in that number. As of the midpoint of this year, $1.6 billion in backlog, we've got more than 4,000 employees in the commercial segment right now. As Rex said, we've made more than 325 steam generators and delivered those commercial customers around the world. We've got 60 in backlog working through our factors right now to add to that number over the next 5 years or so, and we will be booking more to add to that number of steam generators. And of course, we make a lot more than steam generators, all kinds of other components, but that's a real marquee product for us, a very complex type of product to make. We've made more than 2 million fuel assemblies for our Canadian customers that can do customers, and that's just a steady ongoing very predictable demand for our business. And we do have the largest heavy nuclear component manufacturing footprint in North America. And we're just expanding what is the largest clean room for assembly of nuclear components. So when you make a big nuclear component like a steam generator, you need to do that in a very controlled environment, and we've got uniquely the largest capability in the world to do that. The other thing I'd like you to notice about the business is that it is -- it's really changed in terms of mix, okay? We're about half services now. It's a recurring business for us that is predictable and it's got long-term visibility. And so really, the message here is we're a merchant business. We've got significant industrial scale, and we've got strong recurring services. Now we didn't arrive at this position by accident. We've been purposely investing to build our business to meet the demand that we see coming that we have really good visibility into. So you can see on this chart, we added the fuel and fuel handling business that was GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Canada in 2016. Little after that, we went and acquired a precision manufacturing business from Laker Energy. So this is precision reactor components for the Candu business. Then we realized because of the backlog that we were growing, we needed more capacity in our large component manufacturing plant in Cambridge, Ontario. And so we began the expansion of that facility, and it's a significant expansion. So we're adding them 40% to the part of the factory where we make the really large complex components, and we're just about finished that. Then we acquired Kinectrics, and that really, really transformed our engineering capabilities in our service business. It's a very large company, about 1,400 people more than 800 engineers and many technicians in that business, and it gave us real exposure to life cycle services for fleets in Canada and around the world. And then just recently, we acquired Precision Components Group here in the U.S., and that established our U.S. commercial manufacturing footprint. It's a large and long operating business. So 500,000 square feet of manufacturing space, more than 500 people in that business they've been operating for many decades. They've done both commercial and government work. So they've got a lot of work right now for the Navy related to things like missile tubes and to other components like steam condensers but they've made a bunch of commercial product. And we are looking to leverage that to meet the coming commercial demand here as well as continuing with the work that they're doing. So our strategy here has been consistent. It's to add differentiated capabilities. It's to add capacity as we see that demand coming and it's to expand geographically to get closer to good markets like the U.S. and like Europe. Okay. So now I want to describe the breadth of our capabilities in this business that we've built. We've really got 3 lines of business in the commercial business, heavy components, many of which we design got a wide variety of services. You can see some of that in the center of this chart, and I'll give you some additional information about that in a few minutes. And then we've got our fuel and our specialized equipment business. And we are the OEM of the on-power refueling system for the CANDU reactors. So CANDU reactors are unique in the world. They do not shut down to be refueled. They refuel while they operate. And it's really complex system to do that. It works very well. It allows them to have the record in the world for the longest operating cycles. They can operate for more than and do operate for more than 3 years. So we're the OEM of that system. Okay. So when you look across this breadth of what we do, it really gives us exposure for the entire value chain and throughout the entire life of nuclear plants. And that means we've got multiple touch points, both with reactor OEMs but with power generators, right? Those are a major part of our customer base and it allows us to participate in different ways. So in existing operation and maintenance, things like outage services, which is a very big part of our business, life extensions and power uprates power uprates are interesting, huge demand for power. We're seeing a lot of operators in the U.S. that are looking to take their existing assets and just generate more power. And we will add -- the industry will add gigawatts. We do a lot of the engineering to support that and, of course, new builds. Okay. So that's a description of our business. Now I'd like to talk about our demand outlook worldwide. So the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Authority is forecasting global growth in nuclear capacity to more than double by 2060. And they're not alone in that. There are many, many different organizations that are predicting that kind of growth to meet the demand for electricity. We're seeing that opportunity develop across multiple reactor technologies and in multiple geographies. So it's very widespread situation for us. And so for example, Westinghouse is reporting that they've got opportunities for 90 AP1000 large reactors globally. In the case of the CANDU technology, CANDU Energy, which is a division of Atkins Realis, is reporting that they've got opportunities for 14 new CANDU reactors, many of which are likely to be in the Canadian market. And then there's potentially hundreds of SMRs around the globe of different types, many of which we're involved in. What's driving this is increasingly clear its economic security, it's the need or the desire for decarbonization and the need for energy security. After more than 30 years in the industry, the magnitude of the opportunities we're seeing unlike anything I've ever experienced before. And importantly, for BWXT, this isn't concentrated on one type of technology or in one geography. It's varied in widespread, which is great for our merchant supplier business. Okay. So Canada is a very established market for us. And it's where demand is most visible for us because we're so involved in and embedded in that market in very many ways. It's also a large market, right? Canada, if you think of it by nations that generate nuclear power, it's third on the list between North America and Europe if you don't count Russia and Ukraine. So a good large market that's investing a lot in nuclear. In that market, we've got more than 1.2 million square feet of manufacturing and engineering space, a lot of differentiated space. We have extraordinarily long-term customer relationships. So more than 6 decades, actually, with the history of our company, we're involved before nuclear. And so we've got these really long-term relationships where they know what we can do. They know our people, they know they can count on us. We've also got rare fuel manufacturing capability and fuel handling technology. We're 1 of 2 fuel manufacturers, and we have the -- we're the OEM of the on-power refueling systems. And now we've got very specialized plant services and engineering and licensing capabilities, some of which came with the Kinectrics acquisition. So all of that gives us layers of demand in the market. First, we've got a solid foundation of recurring demand from the existing fleet in Canada for aftermarket components, parts, fuel services that just continually that we're seeing all the time and that growing as the reactors age. Second, we've got major life extension programs. And this has been a really large, very good market. So right now, we're actively involved in supporting the life extension of the Bruce Power reactors and Ontario Power Generation Pickering reactors. This is a $50 billion Canadian market that we've been participating in. It started in 2015, and it's going to continue all the way through 2032. Third, we've got SMR demand, active SMR projects. We're making the reactor pressure vessel for the BWRX-300 SMR that's being deployed at the Darlington site for Ontario Power Generation. It's GE Renova Hitachi technology Construction has started. We're deep into manufacturing the reactor vessel. That is the Western world first SMR. OPG has committed to build 4 of those at that site. I'm highly confident they will do that. I want to give you a sense of what we're making. So this reactor vessel is 600 tons. It's 100 feet long. It's at its biggest diameter, 22 feet roughly. It is the world's largest reactor vessel. You saw some of that perhaps in the video, although it was only briefly in that video. It's a remarkable vessel. And we are doing the detailed design of that and the analysis of that for our customer. And fourth, in Canada, we've got ramping demand for new large reactors. And this is a massive opportunity that's coming towards us my estimate is that, that market is about CAD 122 billion to CAD 150 billion for the planned new builds in Canada. So -- and that's going to happen over the next couple of decades. Just going to go back and just spend 1 more minute on the Canadian market. I have to say I'm very optimistic about the Canadian market. Canada just released its national nuclear strategy. It's one of the few countries in the world that has a national nuclear strategy. You may have read about that, you can look it up online. But here's a couple of key points about that. So the objective is to deploy 10 large reactors, want 2 under construction by 2035 and 5 more by 2040. Other elements that are key here are regulatory streamlining, which is critical and they've just introduced legislation at the federal government about this, which is 1 project, 1 decision by 1 agency in 1 year, and that's encouraging. And I believe that will happen. They want more SMRs, they want more off-grid generation for the Arctic for the Canadian North for the Northwest territory packet. They need to make sure that we secure that land as a nation. And there's considerable government funding incentives. So for example, we take benefit from clean manufacturing tax credits that are 30% rate. We've also got reduced corporate taxes because they are very much encouraging us to invest to be able to meet the demand that's coming. The market has, in general, structural changes driving increased electricity demand. It's got an established nuclear investment momentum and a very strong record of delivering these large complex projects well. So the Darlington refurbishment has just been finished for reactors, roughly $13 billion delivered on time and within budget -- that gives investors confidence. And when you couple that with some other factors, like government ownership of utilities or regulated electricity market, where it's normal to be able to collect from the rate base, the cost of building new reactors, which is going on right now with these SMR new builds, you can attract financing at reasonable rates into that market. There's also strong interest in decarbonization in the Canadian market, not a lot of interest in building a lot of gas turbines for power generation and multiparty government support for large long-duration investments in energy infrastructure. So it's a pretty attractive market. In fact, we're already involved. We have contracts for licensing and project definition for these new large reactors. And we expect this will translate into orders for components before the end of this decade. Okay. So beyond Canada, we're positioning ourselves for significant growth in the United States and Europe. In the U.S., Precision Components Group that we just acquired gives us an established large nuclear manufacturing footprint. It's at 2 sites in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The New Jersey sites on the Delaware took a fantastic site for transportation of large components where you really need to be on a waterway that is where you can transport those components. We're pursuing additional capacity for heavy nuclear components in the U.S. because we can see the demand coming from customers like Westinghouse or GE Renova that need very large components, and we need to be able to meet that demand. And so we're working on that diligently right now. The Kinectrics acquisition gave us long-standing relationships with U.S. customers, particularly utilities, they've been in the market for decades doing engineer of choice kind of awards, so heavily embedded in that U.S. fleet. That gives us some really good visibility into what those customers are doing because, of course, that engineering happens at the front end of changes. And as you know, and you can see on this chart, there's substantial government -- U.S. government support for new reactors to be deployed. In Europe, at the bottom of the chart here, we're seeing a lot of activity. We're already participating in the European market in various ways. So we're designing the steam generators for the Rolls-Royce SMR. In fact, it's a large SMR. It's over 450 megawatts so that's in the U.K. We've got engineering services that we acquired through Kinectrics in several countries. So we're serving the installed fleet there. We're supporting AP1000 deployment through owner's engineer work in Bulgaria. So the Bulgarian utility at what's called the Kozloduy site, where they operate a couple of reactors are looking to deploy 2 large AP1000 reactors and they selected us to leverage our expertise and what we know about this to help them to figure out how to deploy those reactors. And of course, based on our work that we're doing in Canada, we're really well positioned to support the BWRX-300 deployment in Poland, in Central Europe and Eastern Europe and perhaps the U.K., as we've seen recently in the news there that there's a lot of activity going on there. And then finally, there's a life extension project going on in Romania, a CANDU reactor there at what's called the churn of otosite on the Danube River. And we've got a pretty exciting pipeline for more components to supply 2 new reactors there, CANDU reactors at that site. There's 2 already. There's 2 that are partially built that they're now looking to complete, and they are already active in front-end engineering on that project. So just to step back from all this, our strategy is not to just export from Canada, which has been our sort of a traditional strong operating place. We're building the geographic footprint to operate locally in these Western global markets in the U.S. and Europe. Okay. I'd like to spend a little time on our service business because that's become a very large and very important part of our business, and it's an area where we see continued strong growth. So if you look at the right-hand side of this chart, you can see service revenue has grown from about $70 million in 2020 to more than $600 million this year. Now Kinectrics is a significant part of that growth. It's a large service company. But if you exclude Kinectrics and look at our traditional B2C services business, over that same period of time, it has grown a lot. In fact, it's nearly tripled. So we're seeing tremendous growth in our service business. What makes this service business attractive is that we can participate across the entire life cycle of a nuclear plant. So at the very beginning, in licensing and owners engineering, as I just described, we're doing that in Canada in Bulgaria and other places through operations and maintenance, doing lots of outage service work, plant modification we're supporting the aging of these reactors and ultimately, end of life in decommissioning. We have a significant role in designing the deep geological repository for the spent fuel in Canada, which is a very exciting project. And because nuclear plants operate for many decades, somewhat uniquely for power production technology. So most of the plants operating today are expected to hit at least 80 years of life and probably go beyond that to 100 years of life -- that long operating cycle gives us really long-term customer relationships, recurring revenue and visibility into demand long into the future for service work. So service has become a very important line of business for us. We see strong demand. We see continued growth. And in fact, we see some opportunities for inorganic continued growth in this area, and we're pursuing those opportunities now. Okay. So continuing on with services a bit more here. We know service is kind of a broad term. It can encompass a range of activities, obviously. And I've just told you about quite a breadth of services here. But -- to give you a better understanding, I wanted to describe an example of the service that we offer, just to kind of give you a sense of what that looks like. So picture a large CANDU reactor and CANDU reactors are not a reactor that have sort of a reactor vessel with all the fuel sitting inside. It's a pressure tube reactor. So it's got up to 500 pressure tubes. These are about 4 inches of diameter, about 30 feet long, and they are critical to the safe, reliable operation of that type of reactor. And what's a key for the understanding the life of the reactor because the life of the pressure tube is the life of the reactor and the CANDU reactor is understanding how they pick up hydrogen from the water around them. That is the degradation mechanism. And it's well understood, it's well characterized. What plant operators need to know is how much hydrogen is there because that equals the life of that reactor. And there was some technology that was used in the market to try to do this. But the customer that we're working with said, we need new technology. We need to get much more accurate here because we could be missing out on ability to operate these reactors longer without being able to characterize that hydrogen uptake. So Kinectrics came up with a very innovative and proprietary solution for this, design new inspection equipment and in fact, new sampling equipment where you deployed into the core of the reactor, in a very highly radioactive work environment, take small samples out of the pressure tube. And then we do laboratory analysis. We have these radioactive hot labs where we can do this analysis, determine hydrogen content and then provided with our engineering team and assessment of the condition, the fitness or duty of those components and the remaining life. And so we didn't just provide sort of a piece of equipment, as you can see perhaps on the -- in this chart, but we provided a total solution end-to-end. So we designed all the equipment, including the delivery system to get that equipment into the reactor, then delivered all of that and then did all the engineering to support that. This created a very significant value for the initial customer and now other customers because they can reliably say to a regulator, here's -- I know what the condition of these pressure tubes are know how much longer I can operate and they extended life, which is tremendously valuable for them. So it's value for them, but for us, it created a differentiated service offering that is recurring as these reactors operate. And of course, it deepens our customer relationship substantially. It's just one example of the type of services that we offer regularly in our business. So I hope that's helpful and gives you a bit of a sense of that. Okay. Let me switch gears from services here to our heavy component manufacturing, design and manufacturing business. There are 5 things that I want you to know about this business. First, we're technology agnostic. We are not aligned any one reactor technology. Other manufacturers are, right? They manufacture for their own reactor design. We're a merchant supplier. We support all -- we work across light water reactors, heavy water reactors, boiling water reactors and advanced reactors that don't even use water as their coolant. Example of that would be TerraPower that uses a liquid metal sodium for cooling of their reactor. Second, we have industrial scale. So as I said, the largest nuclear component manufacturing footprint in North America, largest clean room for assembly of components in the world. Third, we have rare technical expertise. So an aspect of our manufacturing business is that we are a very capable designer of components. Okay. And let me explain that in a couple of ways. So we designed steam generators perhaps in a pressurized water reactor, the most complex component to design, very few organizations can do that globally. But we're also designing and doing the detailed analysis of the reactor vessel for the BWRX-300 SMR. Increasingly, we're finding customers are coming to us as they're developing new technology, getting us involved early because of our design expertise to look at how to make components, material selection, et cetera. And then how do you design that for manufacture ability to make sure you can deliver with reasonable lead time with reasonable cost. A good example of this is TerraPower. So Terra Power has a sodium fast reactor. Of course, they call the Naturum reactor that they're deploying in Wyoming. And they came to us early on and said we needed to look at designing these heat exchangers that sit in the core of that reactor. So they're surrounded by liquid sodium and actually sodium on both sides of that heat exchanger tube. It's a very high environment, no reactors on a commercial scale, operate with high temperature environment like that, which is challenging from a material selection and mechanical design of that heat exchanger. And so we've been designing that now for a while making good progress and expecting to move to manufacturing stage. And that's a big part of why we're getting involved early is our design expertise. Fourth, we've got a decades-long track record of delivery. Our customers know exactly what our track record is. They've seen us deliver those 325 steam generators and many other components, hundreds of heat exchangers and other components. And fifth, we have strong positioning in good markets, especially in Canada and the U.S. That's why we describe ourselves as a super merchant supplier of engineered nuclear equipment. Okay. So continue with the components here. I've talked about our large market opportunity for components in our broad portfolio. But what I want to do now is quantify for you what a new reactor means financially for BWXT. And by that, I mean what's our addressable opportunity per reactor in revenue? And it of course, as you probably not surprised varies by the type of reactor -- so for a CANDU reactor, our addressable opportunity is between $350 million and $700 million per reactor of revenue. And that's the largest opportunity for bioreactor type that we have we cover the full spectrum of everything. We can make everything in the core and everything around the core for CANDU reactor. For an AP1000, it's a little smaller. So it's low hundreds of millions of revenue per reactor. We can make all of the components, but we don't make things like the fuel handling system and some other systems, for example. So that's a little bit less opportunity than a CANDU reactor. And of course, now we have legacy AP1000 content in our acquisition of PCG because in the first wave of AP1000 deployment, they made a variety of components for the U.S. plants and for the Chinese plants. Okay. Now turning to an SMR. There are addressable opportunities about $50 million to $100 million per reactor. And it varies, of course, based on the SMR type. So let me give you an example to illustrate that. So for the BWRX-300 the GE Renova Hitachi reactor, it's a boiling water reactor. So it's got fewer components. The reactor vessels where a lot happens, right? That's where they boil the water, that's where they can control pressure. There aren't steam generators. So a bit smaller opportunity per reactor there, still very exciting opportunity. but then think about Rolls-Royce small modular reactor. That's a scaled-down SMR. It's about 470 megawatts. And of course, it's got steam generators. It generates steam with separate steam generators. It's got pressurizer. It's got a variety of components. So that's a bigger opportunity for us per reactor. Now on top of all the component work that we can supply, there's life of plant services, which are not included in the numbers that I just gave you. and those go on for 80 or 100 years after these plants are built. The other important thing here to note is timing. So these are very long lead components and our customers come to us very early probably amongst the earliest in terms of suppliers that they talk to. And sometimes we can get orders even before they've made a final investment decision because these are such long lead components. And once they're awarded, we recognize revenue over several years depending on the type of reactor. I said earlier, our bid pipeline is unlike anything I've ever seen for. It's the strongest it's ever been. And we expect to start converting some of these opportunities into awards either later this year or early in 2027. So supporting these market-leading technologies isn't an aspiration for us. We're already involved. And we're involved and have been selected by them because of our industrial scale, our technical engineering expertise and our track record for delivery. So let me give you some examples here. So for CANDU, we're making 48 steam generators for Ontario Power Generation for the Pickering Life Extension project. That's 4 reactors that are being life extended. For AP1000, we're providing owners engineering service to a Bulgarian customer that I described earlier. For the BWRX-300, obviously, we're manufacturing the first reactor vessel for that first deployment. Mentioned that for Rolls-Royce SMR, we're designing their steam geneators, and we expect to make those steam generators for the U.K. market. They've been selected -- they've won and been selected in Sweden, and they've also gone in Czechia. So we're participating across large and small reactors in North America and Europe, and that's the diversified position that we've been building, which is enabled by our expertise and our ability to innovate. Well, of course, all this demand only matters if you can execute well, and we know this from our many years of operating. That's why operational excellence or our DPS program, as Rex described, is really critical to us. Our focus is straightforward, improved factory flow continuously and eliminate waste relentlessly and automate repetitive work increasingly. And we're doing all of that and our objectives, of course, are to reduce lead time and cost and increase capacity and expand our margins. I hope this example on the right side of this chart maybe makes this tangible for you -- for our current steam generator program that I mentioned we're required to deliver one steam generated a month to our customer. But as soon as we got that contract, we focused on increasing that throughput significantly. So we're now operating at a pace of over 1.5 steam generators a month in our factory. And that is really helping our customer. And just to give you a sense of scale here, these are 100-ton components, they're 50 feet long, they're 8 feet in diameter. They're pretty large components with thousands of tubes inside them in the complex world of assembly. So a significant effort to get to that kind of pace. By doing that, we've obviously benefited our customer, but we've increased our throughput, which gives us more capacity for the pipeline that we see. And it's an example of how operational excellence translates into growth and into margin improvement. Okay. So let me bring all these pieces together for you and talk about how we create value. Our position is built on 3 things here: a 6-decade track record of solid execution performance. Some deep and rare engineering, technical capability and unmatched industrial scale in North America. Our strategy from here is to create more value is to maintain our leading position in the CANDU market in the Canadian market and CANDU globally, expand our scope with large -- other large OEM reactor vendors and SMR vendors. Expand our industrial scale to meet that demand that we see coming and to continue to grow our service offering in various ways because that's been a great business for us and use operational excellence to add capacity and improve margin as we go. So we're talking about taking what is the strong existing position and scaling it into a much larger, more global business. And that brings us to the financial outlook for the commercial segment. We've got a predictable core growth here backlog of $1.6 million, as I said, ongoing life extension and SMR work, steady demand for aftermarket components and services. In addition, we have many new growth opportunities, very sizable. So we've got large scale and SMR new builds in North America and Europe, expansion of our service offering, driven by a growing fleet of aging reactors geographic expansion. We now have presence in the U.S. commercially in Europe and further opportunity to grow with disciplined M&A. With that outlook, we expect to achieve high teens revenue CAGR over the period to 2030. And with volume increasing pricing discipline and operational excellence, we expect EBITDA margins to go from about 13% now into the high teens by 2030 with adjusted EBITDA CAGR greater than 20% over that period. Okay. I want to leave you with 5 key messages about our commercial business. First, we've built ourselves into a leading supplier of nuclear equipment and services skinned. We're continuing to invest to expand that leading position. Third, we have predictable demand from all the sources I just described to you and fourth, a growing pipeline, significantly growing pipeline for new nuclear opportunities in North America and Europe. And fifth, with our combination of strong backlog good bid pipeline. It supports an outlook for strong double-digit earnings growth. Okay. So I'll wrap up with 2 points here. One, we've built a very differentiated commercial business over the last several years. and that has positioned us exceptionally well for the growth cycle ahead. So now I'd like to turn it over to Joe Miller, who will talk about our government operations business. Thank you.
Joseph Miller
executiveAll right. Good morning, everybody. I'm Joe Miller, and appreciate all the commentary we heard from Rex so far with the strategy, the outlook, how we're currently executing across BWXT. And then John emphasized a lot of important points that I'll also talk through. But I'll talk about it very specific to how government operations has been constructed, how we operate every day, how we think about execution, continuous improvement and how we're going to grow. So you'll see some parallels between what Rex talked about, what John talked about, but I'll stay very focused on the government customers we have, that trusted relationship. And we do have a commercial offering that I'll talk about the end with mPower, with the Janus how we're going to commercialize micro reactors. But there's a lot of similarities. And those similarities are true because we talk very strategically within BWXT and we have since 1867, right? We've talked about the importance of having a manufacturer's mindset in everything that we do. even if it's a design, even if it's using AI and machine learning, it's all about manufacturing. It's all about delivering. It's all about staying very focused on what the customer needs when they need it and how we invest strategically to get there. So I've been with the company for 15 years, I had my first exposure to BWXT on board a Los Angeles class submarine, the USS Norfolk. And it's when I fell in love with nuclear. I didn't know much about it until I joined the Navy. I was put into the nuclear pipeline. So I went to school for a couple of years. I learned how to operate nuclear reactors, how to perform the sampling and analysis of water chemistry, how to go through the radiological controls and understand really important things like changing out the resin inside of a nuclear reactor, changing out the entire reactor itself cutting the submarine in half and doing all those high consequence operations. So that help me understand how to perform in high-consequence environments. And then I decided to get my nuclear engineering degree and take my career to new levels in this role as a government operations President. And I took over for Admiral McCoy, who is now our Chief Nuclear Officer, who seconded to the U.S. Navy. He works out of the Pentagon, but he spends all of his days in the shipyards. He's doing that because we need to improve the speed of shipbuilding in the United States. And he is an integral part of that. The U.S. Navy has taken that very seriously. They're taking our reactor deliveries very seriously, and we're setting ourselves up for the future and how we build out our submarine fleet in the U.S. and how we work with some of our international partners that I'll talk about later in the presentation. But more specifically, inside the government operations, there are 4 business segments. We have naval propulsion, which is by far the largest in government operations company. It's about 50% of the total revenue of BWXT and 70% of government operations. We also have technical services. It's the most broad. So 14 sites. We manage and operate nuclear laboratories, environmental remediation and really revitalization of how we can use those facilities in the future and a variety of other methods that we use as a company to go off and provide those technical services. Advanced Nuclear and business that Kate Kelly and I started back in 2017 and really became a formal organization in 2018 and how that organization is bringing new technology to life, all of the nuts and bolts of manufacturing and understanding how to operate nuclear reactors coupled with advanced design, advanced manufacturing, AI and machine learning. We've been doing all of that since 2018, and I'll talk a lot about how those products are now coming to life. And then our segment, our newest and fastest-growing is special materials. Now we've been handling special materials for 70 years because you have to do that when you're building nuclear reactors and the nuclear industry is 70 years old. So we've been doing that ever since this company got into the nuclear industry. But as a separate segment, we saw this meaningful growth and these meaningful growth opportunities that were coming out of the U.S. government with a variety of new customers, especially in the advanced nuclear market. So we addressed that. We formed a business just focused on that. And I'll talk about how that's manifesting in a couple of operations that we have in high purity depleted uranium enrichment operations and how that couples back to our core businesses. So the key tenets here of government operations are our foundation. Our foundation is solid because we have unmatched experience in the way in which we operate our facilities. The way which we manufacture each one of our products. We also have that foundation based on a sole source contracts from the U.S. Navy. So these are billions of dollars worth of contracts that allow us to deliver on multiple platforms. And I'll talk about what those platforms are, what the shipbuilding outlook is, but it's a solid foundation for us. It allows us to make strategic investments on how we think about that business, how we invest not just in infrastructure and technology, but also how we invest in people. How we can lean into bringing people into the company, understanding once again, how to manufacture, how to do things the right way and then allow those people to move into some of our growth engines in technical services, special materials and advanced nuclear. And so we have this predictable and growing revenue base, and I'll talk about where the growth is occurring. And I'll also talk about how we're driving margin improvement out of that revenue base. So not only do we need to execute, but with this new infrastructure build-out that we've seen, Rex talked about it, billions of dollars worth of CapEx and BWXT have been matched largely by our customers. Once we do that, once we build out those facilities, you need to optimize how you manufacture in those facilities. And as you optimize, you create efficiencies. And as you create efficiencies, as we create efficiencies all day, every day, we're creating better margins for BWXT. So once again, the core capabilities you see here in the center, we have complex nuclear manufacturing capability with a proven safety record, that equals credibility, and credibility and trust is paramount inside of the nuclear industry. So we take that very seriously, and we keep that as part of our training programs, the way in which we operate, the way in which we communicate to all of our organizations. And with that credibility comes deep government relationships, and that helps us -- that has helped us establish this base. So I talked about 70 years in nuclear, 70 years in the nuclear industry. For us, that started with Admiral Rickover. He decided to take nuclear technology, convert that into nuclear reactors that could be used on submarines to create a strategic deterrent that would maintain peace worldwide. Very, very important that we did that after World War II because of what happened in World War II. How do we create machines for the Department of Defense to maintain Peace worldwide for decades to come. That's why nuclear reactors exist on submarines. We continue to build those nuclear reactors with that same consequence, and we continue to do that for the U.S. Navy and a couple of other partners that, once again, I'll talk about in later slides. So that was in the 1950s. And then in the 1990s, the government decided to transition from government-owned government-operated facilities to government-owned commercially operated facilities, GoCos, so technical series were required and most of the facilities, especially the ones that we address have nuclear credentials and capabilities and material handling and control, all the things that we do and have been doing for several decades inside of BWXT. And so we brought those people into technical services. we started to understand more about how we could rapidly innovate in those operations across the United States and use the high-skilled capability and expertise throughout BWXT to bring on new contracts. So on the left side, the established base, nuclear enabled propulsion 70 years ago. The technical services work about 40 years ago. We've been working that and then on the right side, how do we support our growth, special materials and advanced nuclear. Now these are new businesses, but they have hundreds of millions and billions of dollars worth of contracts. So special materials, like I mentioned, is born out of our naval propulsion business because of the handling and the requirements that go there. But as we start to see this depletion of the stockpile that Rex talked about, with highly enriched uranium as we see the need to replenish a variety of other materials inside of the NNSA portion of the Department of Energy, we expanded that portfolio. And once again, we broke that business out to report separately directly to me. And advanced nuclear did start as a start-up. And we did that because we had an mPower program, that mPower program, which I'll talk about, was shelled for very good financial reasons but we had this core capability and people that knew how to design advanced things. I knew how to test advance things that knew how to utilize the newest technology to bring nuclear power projects to fruition. At that same time, we started to see from the U.S. government, especially from NASA and the space portions of the U.S. government, an extreme interest in high-performance propulsion, nuclear thermal in particular, in like the 2017 time frame. So we formed a business around that. We brought a dozen people together that's now 400. And we brought those people together because we knew that power dense systems in small packages could be of extreme value to the government market and eventually the commercial market. And I'll talk about how that growth out of Advanced Nuclear has come to fruition over the last couple of years. Before that, I'll talk about just the high-level overview of government operations. Now Rex talked about the backlog at $8.4 billion, almost $7 billion of that is in government operations because of our long lead contracts. And that relates mostly to the shipbuilding industry, but it also relates back to technical services work that we're doing, some long leads that we're seeing across the special materials as well. So overall revenue for government operations, $2.6 billion. My most proud parts of this slide is 425 reactors in County, at least 2 a year more like 3 a year is what we're producing out of our facilities in Erwin, Tennessee, in Lynchburg, Virginia, but we're also producing all the components that go along with those reactors to translate the thermal energy from nuclear reactions to power and propulsion. So we have 25 years of experience manufacturing advanced nuclear fuel, several decades beyond that for all different types of fuel, especially for the naval reactors program. Also, Rex mentioned the Category 1 energy license that we have. These are very unique. We are the only industry holder that has these license. It has all the capability and the security and the protocols that go around each one of these licenses. And we do it with 6,000 employees inside of government operations. So those 6,000 employees wake up every day and they go into industrial settings, and they build the most exquisite, the most robust nuclear machines on earth. And they do it every day, and they do it with passion, and they do it with a relentless pursuit, not just for quality, but also optimizing everything that they perform inside of those industrial settings. The revenue layout here, and Rex talked about this as well, that enable nuclear propulsion, once again, 70% of government operations book-ended by technical services, which has very little revenue because we take an equity stake in joint ventures, 14 of them. We take that to the bottom line as equity income. We don't consolidate revenue at the top line. Special Materials is growing fast, and I'll talk about both special materials and advanced nuclear in detail and specifically, what projects are bringing that revenue and growing that revenue over the next couple of years and into the future. So a lot of words on this slide. This is our business line overview. Once again, book-ended by our most mature parts of government operations with nuclear propulsion, naval nuclear propulsion and technical services. And once again, you see a lot of customer overlap here. In fact, even John and I have some customer overlap in commercial operations and government operations. But -- the customer overlap is 1 thing. We stay very focused on what our core capabilities are and how we can meet those customer demands. That's how we divide up what we're doing day in and day out. So you see key customers in NNSA, obviously, the naval reactors program the Department of War, Department of Energy. We have some work with DARPA. We have worked with DIU. I mean it's really across the entire spectrum of the government clients that are interested in nuclear. One new customer for us is AECL in Canada. So we just won as the prime government operations Technical Services group as a prime to manage and operate the Canadian Nuclear Laboratory. And like John mentioned, it's a perfect time for us to have that relationship with the Canadian government because the Canadian government has taken nuclear very seriously. They have their own strategy, and they're doing a great thing and bringing that strategy to bear using this nuclear laboratory. So we went across the nuclear value chain. And these are some of the high-level awards that we've received very recently. So over $6 billion worth of awards through our market capacity contracts in naval nuclear, $3 billion in awards in just special materials alone. Those are just 2 separate awards, one at $1.5 billion and one at $1.63 billion. And then advanced nuclear, we've been able to translate all the institutional knowledge of Pele into a win on the Janus program. And Technical Services, the awards that we've received there throughout the entire complex equate to about $4 billion in annual site funding at site funding. Once again, that flows down through our P&L as equity income. So I mentioned operational excellence. Both John and Rex talked about our DPX initiatives. These are broad initiatives that start off with a global look across BWXT where can we improve? How do we use the strength of BWXT to improve and increase our overall efficiency. So the first thing for us is let's optimize our facilities. We can create capacity. We can do more in our existing footprint by optimizing those facilities. We can reduce waste through that optimization process, and we can use tools like automation and AI to maximize the output of each one of our operations. So automation and AI is really important to me. I spent 6 years in the semiconductor industry. So I kind of saw the future before I joined a nuclear company again. And in that future, we see that day in and day out in commercial ops and government operations using automation and AI also takes an extreme expertise because you can throw automation and a lot of problems that may not need it. Sometimes you just need the ability to use AI for QA inspections, quality inspections. You can understand -- how do -- we understand because of our manufacturing expertise, how to utilize technology that best fits the problem, not using technology to go search for problems. So it's a nice way to integrate technology into our existing factories. And then as we ramp up in some of these greenfield sites, especially in Richmond, we're going to fully automate that factory because we have to make dozens, if not hundreds of centrifuges a day. much different than our normal delivery cadence. So we'll be using this in a variety of ways, but it's really important, and John and I tell our staff this all the time. We're going to apply technology where it matters the most, where we'll get the most value because we have to wake up every day and deliver and produce. We can't stop production to start integrating technology. So we have these maker spaces that are available to us to go off and test the technology and have a pragmatic way in which to implement that technology on the factory floor. So you're seeing the increases in efficiency, especially from 2024, we have a 10% increase from 23% to 26%. It's a 7% increase in efficiency, and that's going to continue to grow. So we've been making a lot of improvements. We've been seeing the margin improvements come to the bottom line, but we're not stopping here. Across BWXT, we are the sole provider of nuclear reactors for both components and fuel. What you're seeing here is a diagram of an engine room. So starting with the nuclear reactor, the control rod drive mechanisms, the prederizers, the steam generators, the fuel, a variety of other heat exchangers that go into this power plant inside of the engine room originate in our factories. They originate in our northern sites and our southern sites really throughout the eastern seaboard of the United States. And so we manufacture these components for a variety of different classes of ships for the U.S. Navy. And what you're seeing on the right side of the screen is the build time. So essentially, the size and the build time equate to how long does it take us to deliver each one of these shipsets. So the Virginia-class submarine, the SSN-AUKUS program or equivalent about the same. In the middle, you have the battleship and the Columbia class submarine on the right, you have the aircraft carriers. Now the battleship as proposed by the U.S. Navy will use a Ford class aircraft carrier. So it's the same components. It's the same reactor, but there's only 1 of them on a battleship where there's 2 on the aircraft carrier. So this graphic is a depict, how long does it take to deliver the entire shipset. And that's relevant to our content in BWXT. We have -- we deliver more Virginia class submarines and we do Columbia class, more Columbia class submarine cores than we do the Ford-class aircraft carrier reactors. This is more on what that growth looks like and the visibility that we have into the 30-year shipbuilding plan. So it's pretty steady state for Virginia class to a year for the next several decades. And we've hit that cadence. And this is where a lot of our efficiencies are coming in inside of the factory because we've been building Virginia class now for quite a while. And we've gotten up to an operational cadence that makes a lot of sense. Now the Navy will likely feather in the next-generation fast attack submarine reactor here and that's up to them, and that will show up in the shipbuilding plan that evolves from the Navy. Same goes with Columbia class heavy deliveries. We've delivered the Columbia core. We have many Columbia cores in production right now, and we expect that to continue pretty rapidly through the mid-2030s and then start to even out into the out years. And then the Ford-class aircraft carrier, we're continuing to build those as well. We have the battle shift just shown here right now. This isn't in our forecast because the commitments in the purchases haven't come through from the Navy yet, but we do expect that to come through or at least get better visibility to that in the coming future. So all in all, 4% to 6% CAGR growth over this time period. And we see some upside here. And you see this blue shading at the top on the sand chart, and that shows up as battleship cores, the SSN-AUKUS program, which is a trilateral agreement between Australia, the United States and the U.K. And then there's other international support meaning when our allies need support on nuclear programs, especially nuclear programs specific to the shipbuilding industry, they'll come to the U.S. government -- directly to us. So we have a lot of interface in that regard. And we expect if they're an Ally arrangement to provide this type of technology, BWXT will be there, and we'll leverage that opportunity for additional growth. So I want to move over to Technical Services in a little more detail. And now I mentioned the 14 programs where we provide services. And that's throughout the United States and now in Canada through the Canadian Nuclear Laboratory. And there's a variety of sites listed here. Some of these sites are Department of Energy Nuclear Laboratories, where there's a lot of early science and development and some testing like you see out of Idaho National Lab especially with some of the criticality experiments that we've seen in that lab. But we also work in places like Hanford and Savannah River where we go through the restoration of those areas based on Manhattan project operations that occurred there. We're going to restore those areas by cleaning up the tanks, and in preserving the environment surrounding each one of those tanks. And then we also manage Pantex and other NNSA sites where we participate in joint ventures, making sure the science is right and the equipment and the deliveries are right there, much like we do for the naval reactors program. So there's low financial risk here because we're a management and operating contractor. We have GoCos, we do invest capital, but that's part of the contractual relationship and we get paid back in due course throughout the execution of those contracts. So how do we build on this success? And only 6 years ago, 2020, this was a $27 million EBITDA business, and now we've grown it to $80 million. And we've done that because we've been winning. We've been winning contracts in the variety scope that's offered in GoCos. In fact, we've won just about every contract that we bid over the last 5 to 10 years and it started of with our initial bid in West Valley. We ramped that up across our Savannah River mission completion, which is the environmental remediation portion of the Savannah River study. And then we augmented that with Hanford tanks, and we continue to win with Pantex, Canadian Nuclear Laboratories we even won a contract that we used to participate on in the strategic petroleum reserve. We used to operate a portion of those oil fields, and we're doing that as part of that joint venture. And then more recently and some of the opportunities that we're seeing out of the government that are atypical is bidding individual pieces of scope from each one of those sites. So meaning the Y-12 complex has to build large facilities to manufacture products for NNSA, including lithium. They went out to bid. Normally, that would just be consolidated under that M&O contractor but they went out to bid because they want this rapid growth in the footprint for NNSA, and we won one of the initial awards to go off and design that building, design the facility and operations and really provide a good proposal back to NNSA for the full build-out to process lithium into the future. So we're expanding here. We're using a variety of things. I talked about the people side of the business. We're utilizing the best in BWXT to go after these contracts. We're using a process that's tried and true, meaning teaming and teaming relationships that we know we can win with. And then we're using digital tools. We manage these enormous projects in 14 sites. The best way to do that, the best way to streamline that is to use artificial intelligence. And we've been employing that through each one of those sites. We've been integrating the way in which we're using AI with our customers, and they love it, right? They love the fact that we're moving faster than they've ever seen any contract have moved before and that's the real reason we're winning, right? You can bid jobs all day long, but it's all about the CPAR scores as part of the FAR process. If you don't have good scores, you will not win. We've had good scores, and it's growing day in and day out or year after year. And it's because we're moving faster than anybody, and we're doing it with extreme safety. So I want to move over to advanced nuclear. And like I mentioned, Kate Kelly, Erik Nygaard several of us started this business in 2018, and it was an exciting time because we did start to see this translation of new technology into the nuclear realm. And so we started to understand what does the customer base look for. First, it was space nuclear reactors, then it was optimized nuclear fuel. In fact, we 3-dimensionally printed halo fuel in 2019 as part of this business. It was one of our first projects. And we did it because we wanted to prove the DARPA that we could not only rapidly innovate, but we could create a material composition of nuclear fuel that had never been done before. We could 3 dimensionally print it. We could put it in the furnace that had high hydrogen and 3,000 C temperatures, and it would perform mechanically. And we did that in about a year. It was an amazing feat for us, but what we learned was that entire cycle. It was a brand-new business that had to understand how to hire right how to create good program management, how to interface with new customers, how to develop a supply chain and how to get things done quickly in a high consequence environment, a nuclear laboratory. And we did all that. And that was the springboard for all the rest of this growth. And what we've done is we've hired 400 people. We did a lot of that during COVID. We had monthly all-hands meetings to make sure those people understood exactly why the strategy existed inside of BWXT to have a start-up in a company that had been around since 1867. We built a 200,000 square foot maker space that has classified capability, and it's much more than a maker space now. First, it was a lot about development and seeing the designs come to life and component type testing. But now we have a full-up reactor in there. We have the Pele reactor core with a core barrel installed, 7,000 components inside, flow sleeves ready, ready to be fueled, they are ready to be shipped and fueled at the Idaho National Lab. So the transition has not only taken place inside of the nuclear industry. It's taken place inside of BWXT. We're designing our own products. We're manufacturing those with the latest technology. We're creating a digital representation of the as-built design, and we're going to be delivering this product and operate this reactor for the U.S. government here in short order. So out of that, we also learned how to go through the entire cycle of research and development. That's the reason why government operations advanced nuclear in particular is the development engine for a lot of the new product lines that we have. And also how do we optimize the Triso manufacturing process. And I'll talk more about that in a later slide. So I talked about the early part of this and why we built advanced nuclear platform in the way that we did. Now we're getting into initial deployments. I would consider this the fun stuff, right? We've traversed this very difficult to traverse technology road map, technology readiness levels from 0 all the way to 7. We're there. We are now prototyping. We are going to deliver that first reactor. We have several other programs in the pipeline that I'll talk about in national security, and then we're going to scale production. And then we're going to expand the markets as we scale production. And we see that in context of what the government is looking for, how they think about micro reactors, how they are thinking about distributed energy, how they are thinking about the tactical capability that goes along with a strategic product like a micro reactor. In addition to that, we've been manufacturing fuel inside of government operations at our nuclear operations group in context in collaboration with our advanced nuclear group. So not only we've been manufacturing Trisofuel for 20 years, we're the only ones delivering in spec Triso fuel to the government, right? And we're doing that in the hundreds of kilograms quantities, and we're going to get into larger quantities as that market demands it. But we're ready for that. We've been making investments double-digit millions and just providing ourselves with more facilities, with more equipment to manufacture Triso fuel already delivered the Pele fuel. That was last year. That Pele fuel be inserted into the core. That's in Lynchburg now in our facility. We delivered the fuel for Antares experiment. If you recall earlier this year, actually last year, there was a call to action by the White House to deliver critical reactors by July 4, 2026. And first criticality was Antares, that fuel came from our facilities in PBT. It's been a great relationship. And so this is where we have a little bit of an intersection. They're a microreactor vendor. We're a microreactor vendor. We're providing them fuel. It's a true rising tides lift all boats situation. We're going to make fuel for everybody, whether they are competitors or whether it's us. And we do that because we need this TRISO market to expand. We need the volume to increase so we can reduce the cost. So microreactors can become a technology and create a new market for off-grid and behind-the-meter type applications. So back to what we use in our capabilities and how we are using TRISO fuel to not only create project Palay, and this is a project that's been running since 2020. But we had another project running in parallel to that through the Department of Energy, Advanced Nuclear campaign. And that project for us was called the BWT Advanced Nuclear Reactor or BANR. So -- just like Project Pele, we started this program in 2020. We were highly focused on how do you commercialize a Pele reactor. How do you use Pele reactors or microreactors in a variety of different ways. It started off with an oil and gas company paid us $250,000 to write them a proposal and how we could deploy these reactors in an oil field. And so we've taken that thesis. We put that into a program under the Department of Energy and we not only understand how this reactor needs to be scaled up from Pele, but we also understand the key tenets of supply chain, delivery, program management, we are the prime for Pele, meaning we have Northrop Grumman and Rolls-Royce Liberty Works working for us, subcontractors. So we know how to create big programs with new technology, and we're going to deploy it for the Janus program at Fort Campbell. In addition to that, we'll have a commercial offering as the same BANR reactor that will deploy Konas at a military installation, and that commercial offering will have a lot of uptake as we predict here in the near future. So moving on to something that I see as the next generation of the next wave of technologies born out of our Advanced Nuclear segment. It's really a [indiscernible] category strategic deterrent modernization, just like it sounds, there needs to be a modernization of what we're delivering for the strategic deterrent. High-precision manufacturing is absolutely required, high-precision manufacturing in classified environments very, very important. That's what BWXT does. We do it for nuclear products. We can do it for mechanical systems for this customer as well. Operational energy, it's really deploying what we see in Pele, what we see in Janus and creating an operational energy case around that microreactor product and then space operations. I mentioned high-power dense systems and very small packages are a very unique offering that BWXT can provide. Space operations needs that volume and mass are absolutely important in space operations. And if you can get a power density well beyond solar, which nuclear absolutely provides, then space operations is going to be an emerging and ramping segment for us. And we'll talk more about that as those products and as those programs continue to mature. So moving over to mPower. This is the reason I joined BWXT. Back in 2011, I was very excited about small modular reactors. And I was very excited about BWXT and what we could bring to the marketplace. So this program started in 2007, 2008, and we really ramped up about 2010, maybe 2011, and we had a couple of things that were happening simultaneous. We were designing the reactor, the components that were most mature, we were building and we were testing. And then we also had a large thermal hydraulic test facility that I managed and operated to understand the dynamics of an integral vessel once-through steam generator, coupled to a nuclear reactor. So we went through a lot of the design basis events and scenarios that are required to analyze this technology. It became very mature. But the economics weren't right. The demand signal wasn't there. The financial case no longer made sense. And in the 2014, 2015 time frame, we shelved and we shelved for very good reasons. But we preserved all the information that went along with mPower. And we did that because we knew that it may reemerge. We may have an investment scenario in the future where BWXT would pick it up or in this case and what we're doing where 2 other companies would be interested in it. So the 2 companies are Applied Atomics. We have licensed them this technology. We have an agreement with them to commercialize mPower for the commercial market terrestrial in particular. And then core power, they're interested in marinizing the mPower reactor. So essentially putting multiple units on an enormous barge and then allowing that to provide power to the shore. And this is interesting for us because now we can monetize all that investment that we made at mPower. And furthermore, we stay true to what John MacQuarrie talked about. We will maintain our existence as a supplier, super merchant supplier to the small modular reactor community because we will build what they design. They're going to continue the design. They will continue the licensing we will provide services to make that real. And then most of the scope will go into John's factories in commercial operations as they continue to advance the product. So we'll retain the IP, we'll retain the exclusive rights to manufacture. These 2 companies will take this from where we left off and fully commercialized. And it's good to have 2 companies doing that because they can share their resources and they're in constant contact. They see this as a strategic benefit to have each other. It's not a competitive context. And I think that gives even more life to this program as they continue to invest. So moving over to special materials. We do have these differentiated capabilities, and I talked about that in some level of detail, but it started off with a variety of defense fuels. It started off with our work with the national labs about 25 years ago in scaling up TRISO manufacturing and then it equates to how can BWXT serve the government clients. We started with -- we have this HEU stockpile. It will extend into the 2040s and maybe into the early 2050s. What supply -- where does that supply go? Some of it goes into naval reactors. Some of it gets down blended for use for things like tritium production. And so we've been performing those over time, and we kept that as part of our core business. But what we branched out was when we saw high purity depleted uranium and Richmond operations become big businesses, that's how we coalesced around what we already had strategically and how we could form and create and solidify new opportunities on that established base. So you're seeing a variety of enrichments here on the right, starts with depleted uranium. There are things called tails. It's essentially the excess from the gaseous diffusion enrichment process that was performed in Portsmouth and Paducah. And so those tails have been maintained. And now we take those tails, we create depleted uranium for a variety of uses for the government. We also see an enrichment capability that I'll talk about here in later slides through LEU, Hal and AU. But right now, we're contracted for HU, taking Halo, making it enriching to HEU, allowing us to not only replenish the stockpile, but maintain a constant inventory for the U.S. government. And we're seeing growth here, large growth, 24% CAGR, and we're seeing continued growth into 2030. So more about high-purity depleted uranium. This is a great story because we quickly translated inorganic growth to organic growth. We acquired a company, Aerojet Ordinance Tennessee. We acquired that in January of last year. And it was once again an extension of our capabilities in material handling. From there, we had almost immediate interest from the NNSA customer. They were excited about the fact that BWXT, a large company that could handle large programs can now take on a very important and strategic program for them called high-purity depleted uranium. And that's really what you see here on the top line, restoring the critical national asset known as HPDU. And so on the right, the 10-year execution of this means that we will have a steep ramp in execution because we have to construct the facilities. We've cleared all the land. We are almost complete with the initial facility. We will be complete here in the next year or 2 on the other 2 facilities to manufacture up to 300 metric tons of high purity depleted uranium in our facility in Jonesboro, Tennessee. So that steep ramp us through the construction period. And then you see a level off a bit just during operations, and that's where the operational efficiency, our focus, our relentless focus on margins comes into play. So we'll start driving better margins in the out years post construction, commissioning and through initial and final operations or enduring operations. Staying with special materials. I'll talk a little bit about unobligated enriched uranium on this slide, and then I'll talk about what the future looks like as projected by the U.S. government. So we completed highly enriched uranium enrichment in the 1990s, but we still enrich until about 2013. That enrichment was focused mostly on LEU. And then in 2024, the government came to us and they said, we have this excellent technology that has been borne out of Oak Ridge National Lab. We've been developing it for about 8 or 9 years, and we want you to fully commercialize it or we want your proposal and how you would fully commercialize it. So we went back to how do we take products in products from our advanced nuclear campaign from all the products that we've developed inside of our naval propulsion business, and we developed a program plan, and we were awarded the contract in September of last year for $1.5 billion performing on 2 parallel tasks. One is the commercial -- or not to commercial scale up operations and prepare this Centrifuge, it's called the DUECE Centrifuge out of Oak Ridge National Lab, prepare that for mass production. And then also prepare all of the facilities and the licenses and all the requirements to take that centrifuge and enrich all the way through highly enriched uranium. So these 2 parallel paths, we started a year ago. It's going quite well for us. The relationship that we forged with that National Lab with this customer has been very strong, and we can -- we expect to continue that for this program in particular. But like I mentioned, and Rex mentioned this as well, the government knows strategically that we need -- that we, as the United States, need to have some control over the entire enrichment pipeline. So right now in the U.S., there are about 4.8 million SWU or separative work units of enrichment capacity in the U.S., but none of that is owned by the United States government or a U.S. company. And so there's 15 million SWU, so 3x that consumed just by the commercial marketplace. So the emerging enrichment market is enormous. It's enormous on the commercial side because we have an impending ban on import of Russian uranium, which is a pretty substantial supply to the world and the United States. And we have this demand signal from this dropping supply in our stockpile of highly enriched uranium. So a lot of opportunity enrichment, what BWXT is focused on is what we consider unobligated fuel, which is enriched uranium for the government's purposes. The reason it's called unobligated is because it has no obligation to a treaty worldwide because we manufacture and we use all the components from U.S. sourced materials. So there's 4 parts to the strategy that you can all read in the GAO report, one is use the current available inventory of unobligated LEU and EU. There's some down blending work in there, and I talked about that on a previous slide. Deploy large Centrifuge technology. The problem with that is there's all of the material in a large centrifuge is not sourced from the U.S., so we cannot currently produce unobligated fuel, develop and deploy small centrifuge technology, which is this DUECE platform that's been invested in by the government for nearly 10 years and then develop a large-scale unobligated enrichment capability. And that's something that we're working on. And I talked about that on the previous slide in those 2 parallel paths. But this inventory needs to be replenished and the gap between Halo and HU must be filled. And that's what you're seeing on the right side. So over the next couple of decades, what we expect to see is the government to understand how they want to go off and procure that entire enrichment pipeline, not just the HU that we will be enriching but the entire pipeline. And we feel really well positioned for that because I have staff that are working all day, every day, understanding how we can mass produce these centrifuges. We can get to an economy of scale and ultimately propose to the U.S. government that this enrichment pipeline can be fulfilled by investments that they are making now and have been making for a decade. So going over to the financial outlook. I talked about the revenue at $2.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is $520 million with a margin of about 20.5%. And now at the beginning of the year, this was 19% margins. And because of what we've been focusing on, I talked about operational excellence and how we're using technology and how we're just doing the nuts and bolts factory optimization throughout the entire 3 million square feet in government operations. We've been able to raise that margin above 20% to about 20.5%. But once again, we're not done there. We're going to continue to grow our margins because as you start to gain operational efficiencies, other efficiencies become more clear and we're prioritizing that. I've aligned my OpEx teams to focus on that. I've provided stretch goals to my entire general management team, and they're excited about it because they have staff that are excited about bringing new technology or new processes or new ways of staffing or new factory. I mean there's just tons of different methodologies that have been employed to continue to grow margins. So we have our predictable core growth. We have our $6.8 billion backlog, and we'll continue to grow there. But we have these new opportunities in special materials, essentially commercializing the enrichment capability that we have. HPDU, high-purity depleted uranium and then the Advanced Nuclear segment through this Janus program through the Pathfinder known as the Pele program, is going to become real and it's going to become real very soon, including the TRISO opportunity that not only fulfills our own needs, but the entire marketplace. So in 2030, we expect to have mid- to high single-digit CAGR as compared to today. High single-digit CAGR for EBITDA and then margins are going to continue to expand, and we'll relentlessly pursue that as well. So back to our key takeaways. Inside of government operations, we have this unmatched experience -- we have great customer relationships. We have the sole source contracts that are proof that these customer relationships and our deliveries are exactly what they need to be for this set of really important clients. We're continuing to invest in advanced nuclear platforms, doing that in both reactors and fuel. We're doing that with a coherent strategy that we've been developing over the last decade that we're continuing to implement and refine as new opportunities come to us. We have a very predictable and growing revenue base, and we're continuing to drive margins. It's the vitality that's been injected into this business over the last several years, really starting with Admiral McCoy, starting with the resurgence of a lot of new nuclear opportunities all the staffing that we brought on board, I mean it's palpable. And I walk through these facilities every quarter, and I talk to staff, and I understand what's important to them and they are excited about producing more doing it smartly and then also growing this business alongside with commercial operations. With that, I'll turn it over to Mike Fitzgerald, who will talk about financial strategy and outlook.
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveThanks, Joe. It's great to see so many familiar faces today. And I just want to thank you for being here and the continued interest and support for BWXT. I do want to acknowledge we are running a few minutes behind, so I will try to focus on the key financial messages as we go through this. For those I haven't met, I'm Mike Fitzgerald. I'm the CFO for BWXT. I've been with the company for about 4 years, and I've been in the seat for about 1.5 years. I think you look at today, you hear about the growth and the opportunities ahead of us. My job over the next several minutes is really to translate that into what that means financially. What does that mean for growth? What does it mean for margins? What does it mean for cash generation? And what does that mean for capital allocation? . And when you look at the center of this, it's really about durability. We believe that we can compound earnings and cash flow at very attractive rates while still maintaining financial discipline that has been important and that you've gotten to know from us. As I go through the financial section, I want to leave you with 5 key messages. The first, we expect sustained profitable revenue growth. This is supported by our backlog, our durable end markets and our multiple growth drivers. Second, we see a clear path to margin expansion. This will allow adjusted EBITDA and earnings to grow faster than revenue. Third, we expect earnings growth to translate into meaningfully higher free cash flow. And fourth, we will remain disciplined in how we reinvest that cash, investing organically through disciplined M&A, we're with a focus on strengthening our core strategic markets, while continuing to return capital to shareholders. And fifth, our strengthened balance sheet provides the strategic and the financial flexibility to pursue compelling opportunities and maintain appropriate leverage and liquidity for the business. Together, these elements create a financial model that we believe can compound earnings and drive additional cash flow and shareholder value through 2030 and beyond. Before we look forward, I think it's important to acknowledge how much of the BWXT financial profile has changed. If you look at 2020 to 2023, revenue grew at approximately 6% annually. From the 2023 to the midpoint of our 2026 guidance, that has accelerated to 15%. And more than half of that is organic and it's been complemented by additional acquisitions. If you look at adjusted EBITDA, it shows a similar acceleration. You had 3% in the earlier period, accelerating to 12% from 2023 through 2026. But perhaps the most significant change, I think, in the BWXT story is around free cash flow. We came into the decade following a few large capital programs and with inefficient working capital, which led us to having negative free cash flow, as you can see in 2020. Since then, we've continued investing for growth. But at the same time, we focused on working capital performance. And importantly, what we've seen is a significant improvement in working capital or free cash flow performance and is expected to reach $345 million to $360 million based on our current guidance. So the takeaway is not the BWXT is larger. It's the quality of our financial model has changed. We have a higher growth rate. We have a large earnings base, and we have significantly stronger cash generation profile, and we're doing this even while investing at continued heightened levels for the opportunities ahead. From a segment perspective, we're seeing it really across the business in both segments. In government operations, Joe described how we went from a low single-digit growth to high single-digit growth. We're expecting approximately $2.6 billion of revenue this year. Growth is being driven really across the board. You see it enabled nuclear propulsion. You see it in the evolution of advanced technologies. You see it in special materials. And if you look at our adjusted EBITDA, we're growing as well. And I do want to acknowledge that we have experienced some modest margin compression and that has primarily been driven by mix, but we continue to operate very strongly. You heard a lot of the initiatives that Joe talked about, and we see a very clear path to margin expansion. Importantly, Government has become a high-growth business, but a very predictable foundation for what we're calling the predictable core. If you look at commercial operations, I think that's even seen even more significant improvement. Revenue has grown from $500 million in 2023 to more than $1.2 billion expected this year. John talked about the CANDU life extensions, the early work that we're doing on SMRs don't discount our aftermarket services. We've had a medical growth, we've had strategic acquisitions, and you're seeing that compound. Adjusted EBITDA has increased from approximately $60 million to more than $160 million. So when you look at both segments, they enter into the next several years with a substantially stronger growth profile than they had before. And when you combine that with operational initiatives and what we're doing to continue to support and increase margins, we'll see an increase in exponential compounding of earnings and cash flow. Rex talked earlier about the investment philosophy. Let me put some numbers around this. Across 2024, 2025 and 2026, we will have allocated approximately $1.6 billion of capital. A significant portion of that has gone directly back into the business. We've talked about the BWXT innovation campus optimizing our naval nuclear propulsion facilities, the expansion of our Cambridge manufacturing plant and ongoing maintenance and regulatory investments. We've also deployed capital through disciplined M&A. We discussed today around AOT and Kinectrics in 2025 and most recently, PCG. And throughout that period, we've continued to have a consistent and growing dividend and modest share repurchases. The common denominator here is discipline. Capital will go where we believe it can generate long-term returns. One of my top priorities when I took over as CFO was to optimize and strengthen the balance sheet. My belief was that as our cash profile has changed, that our balance sheet needs to evolve with it. Last November, we issued $1.25 billion of convertible notes at a 0% coupon with a cap call taking the conversion premium up to 100%. We did this to pay off our credit facility, add cash on the balance sheet but at the same time, we simultaneously renegotiated our credit facility terms to be more flexible and increase capacity. Following the recently announced PCC acquisition, we have $400 million of cash and $1.7 billion of total liquidity. If you look at this time last year, following the Kinectrics acquisition, liquidity was less than $300 million. That is a meaningful increase in our financial flexibility. The next step on this path is towards investment grade. Last week, we were very proud to announce Fitch -- assigned us an investment-grade rating, and we're pursuing investment-grade ratings for other agencies as well. We're also evaluating alternatives to address our medium-term debt maturities, our focus is on reducing the cost of capital, supporting our investment-grade objectives, maintaining our net leverage within our targeted 2 to 3x range. And at the same time, making the balance sheet a strategic asset. We believe this will give us greater flexibility to invest organically, to pursue disciplined M&A and manage capital returns, while maintaining the financial discipline that you've come to expect from us. Importantly, we have more strategic and financial flexibility today than we've had in the past, and that expands the range of opportunities that we can consider. I've given you the historical perspective and a snapshot of where we are today, now let's turn to what that means through 2030. Historically, we've provided medium-term growth rates over a 3- to 5-year range. Given the visibility we have today and based on investor feedback, we wanted to provide specific 2030 targets for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. On revenue, we're targeting $5.5 billion to $6 billion in 2030, which is a low double-digit annual growth rate from 2026. We're seeing growth across both government and commercial. For adjusted EBITDA, we're targeting $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, that's a low to mid-teens annual growth rate. And in other words, we're expecting earnings to grow faster than revenue, driven by scale, operational excellence and the margin initiatives that we've discussed. These will offset what we see from a mix headwind standpoint. And we're targeting free cash flow of $525 million to $575 million, which builds off the substantial growth that we've seen in free cash flow over the last few years. The most important point is the combination, sustained revenue growth, expanding margins, increasing cash generation and that framework is diversified across the company. You heard today, it's not dependent on one government program. It's not dependent on one reactor technology, and it's not dependent on a single geography. One reason that we have confidence in the revenue target that we lay out for 2030 is the dramatic improvement that we discussed around backlog. It's the key foundation of what we're calling that predictable core. You've heard many a lot about kind of the individual wins today. So I'm not going to repeat all those. I think what's really important to look at is if you look at book-to-bill, we've remained over 1x over the last few years and were 1.7x on a trailing 12-month basis as of the second quarter. And I just want to reiterate, this is true contracted work and customer commitments. This isn't -- we're not talking about a market forecast or pipeline opportunities. This is real commitment. As of the second quarter, $4.5 billion of our backlog is expected to convert to revenue by the end of next year. That provides a substantial base not only for the rest of this year, but for all of 2027. And that amount is up 40% year-over-year. And when you look at the long-term backlog, it's also up 40%. This gives us a ton of confidence in both not only the near-term outlook, but the longer-term growth trajectory of this business. Well, backlog gives us confidence in the base, what I wanted to show on this slide was how that base combines with incremental opportunities to take revenue from $3.8 billion today to $5.5 billion to $6 billion in 2030. The first layer, as we've discussed, is the predictable core. That represents a little over half of the growth forecast. So in government, we're talking about high priority -- programs that are supported by long-term customer relationships and contracts includes naval nuclear propulsion, special materials, among others. In commercial, this is about our kind of service and aftermarket portfolio, along with visible large-scale nuclear and SMR opportunities. The second layer is really about incremental organic growth. So when we think about that, that is the expansion of the naval nuclear that Joe discussed. It's the special materials upside. It's advanced nuclear that is -- we're continuing to see progress on. It's starting to use our U.S. commercial facility that we've established with the PCG acquisition and its additional large-scale and SMR opportunities that I have not been captured in the core. And then finally, we layer on their disciplined M&A. This is going to be a key part of our strategy. We see opportunities to strengthen our positions, but this is going to be within our core strategic markets. We want to add differentiated capabilities and capacity. We want to create additional avenues for growth, but we need the strategic and the financial case to be compelling. As you think about the path to 2030 we do not expect this to happen in a growth or a straight line, the growth and the timing of opportunities can convert. So any given year may be a little bit different from a cadence standpoint. However, I think we feel very confident in the long-term growth trajectory. And we'll talk a little bit about that more when I talk about the '27 framework. So if I sum up this slide, I just want to reiterate, we don't need to win every opportunity discuss to achieve our objectives or our targets. We have a strong visible base. We have multiple pathways to additional growth and we're not dependent on a single program single platform, single customer or any single feature acquisition. Revenue growth is only part of the financial opportunity that we see. The next part is about improving the economics of that growth. We're laying out a path from 17.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 to approximately 20% by 2030. The interesting thing that gives us a lot of confidence in this is a lot of this is within our control. When you look at the factors, operational excellence we've established, I think you've heard about how this is an organizational-wide initiative focused on simplifying processes, improving productivity, reducing inefficiencies, increasing throughput. Pricing and value is really about being disciplined in how we price our differentiated capabilities and the work that we pursue. And when you look at volume and scale, we believe that, that will provide meaningful benefit in commercial as well as across the business as additional overhead leverage is maintained through additional scale. This represents about 300 basis points of opportunity, but we want to be balanced. And so we also explicitly are accounting for growth investment and mix offsets within that to get to the 20% target. So I think the important thing here is that 20% doesn't assume that mix is going to be more favorable. We're expecting to earn that improvement through execution, through productivity, through value capture and through scale. And combined with our revenue outlook, that supports low to mid-teens adjusted EBITDA growth. The next part of the model is converting free cash flow from earnings, and that's important. I know it's an important focus for many of you. If you look at free cash flow, our free cash flow has compounded at approximately 18% from 2023 to the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. We're coming off a depressed base. So we're not assuming that, that's going to continue indefinitely. But I would say that from here through 2030, we're targeting low double-digit free cash flow growth. There's 3 primary drivers. The first is the earnings growth we just discussed. The second is our disciplined capital spending, and I want to be clear that we are targeting CapEx of 5% to 6% of revenue and our continued focus on working capital management. Growth itself will consume some working capital. And so we have factored in some of those offsets, at least in our overall framework. And the result is ultimately a free cash flow target of $525 million to $575 million. I think for investors, this is probably one of the more important changes in BWXT story. We're not simply targeting higher earnings. We expect those earnings to translate into substantially greater cash generation. And the target already incorporates continued investment in the business for the opportunities that we're seeing ahead. And if I put this differently, you can look at the trajectory and see that we will yield over $2 billion of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 through 2030. And that really materially changes what BWXT can do strategically. So that brings us back to capital allocation. Based on the framework that we've outlined and assuming net leverage remains at the targeted 2 to 3x range, we estimate $5.5 billion of available capital to deploy through 2030. We expect CapEx, as I mentioned before, to be 5% to 6% of revenue with a meaningful portion of that directed towards organic growth, and we expect them to maintain a consistent and growing dividend and share repurchases will continue to remain an option. After those uses, we will have approximately $3.5 billion of additional capital deployment capacity and that gives us really a significant amount of strategic flexibility. If you look at it from a prioritization standpoint, our first priority will continue to be organic growth. To [indiscernible] M&A will continue to be an important part of how we build the portfolio as well. We have more capacity and flexibility today than we've had in most recent years. And that means that we're not anchored to the same size of transactions or the types of acquisitions that we've done in the past. But I do want to be clear that what we're focused on a strategic fit, we're focused on the quality of the assets. We're focused on things that will generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. And when we don't see sufficient reinvestment opportunities, we will return incremental capital to shareholders. Rex showed a version of this slide earlier, but I wanted to put some numbers around our approach to organic investment. We're asked about this frequently, which is makes a ton of sense just given the magnitude of the opportunities that we see. From 2024 through 2026, cumulative CapEx is approximately $565 million, so roughly about 6% of revenue. And more than half of that was really directed towards capacity expansion in both commercial and government. Going forward, we expect total CapEx of approximately 5% to 6% of revenue, roughly 3.5% to 4% for maintenance capital and another 1.5% to 2% for growth capital. The areas of investment remain consistent. Capacity expansion, productivity, operational excellence and digital transformation. But every project competes for capital. We evaluate investments based on their ability to support growth, improve margins, advance the strategic objective and carry an acceptable execution risk profile. And that center of that framework is financial discipline. The objective is not to spend more because the markets are attractive. It is to direct capital towards sustainable growth and attractive long-term returns. If you look at our recent portfolio actions, you can see how we apply that discipline. The point of these acquisitions is not simply to add revenue. We are acquiring differentiated capabilities that we believe can be more valuable within BWXT by combining them with our relationships, our nuclear pedigree and our scale. AUT is a great example. We acquired the business for $100 million in January of 2025. And Joe mentioned earlier that helped us capture a $1.6 billion 10-year HPDU contract. Kinectrics expanded our commercial nuclear services offering that John discussed, and PCG is our first U.S. commercial nuclear manufacturing plant. The portfolio discipline also works in both directions. It means that we need to be willing to exit businesses where we believe capital can create greater value elsewhere. We recently announced the sale of majority stake in BWXT Medical for up to $800 million, while retaining an approximate 20% interest. Taken together, these actions illustrate how we look at portfolio management. Acquisitions and divestitures are 2 sides of the same strategy. concentrating our capital in areas where BWXT has differentiated capabilities where we believe we can create the longest-term value. And this can mean investing organically, acquiring complementary capabilities, monetizing businesses or putting capital where we can -- we believe will be deployed effectively. As we look forward, this disciplined M&A will remain an important part of the strategy, as I mentioned before. Our pipeline is active, the opportunity set we are evaluating has broadened as our financial capacity and strategic position have strengthened. We're focused on assets in our core strategic markets where we can add additional value through differentiated capabilities, strong market positions or revenue synergies. But disciplined M&A means strategic fit and financial returns have to work together. We expect positive NPV, including achievable synergies. We target EPS accretion in year 1, excluding onetime amortization and integration costs, and we look for attractive margins and sustainable organic growth. We have greater financial flexibility today, and we're not anchored to what we've done in the past. The gating factors here are strategic fit and our confidence in execution. We remain very active. We have a great team that's led by Rik Geiersbach, who's with us here today. And the objective isn't simply to acquire businesses. It's to add differentiated assets that can create more value as part of BWXT than they can on their own. I'll finish the financial outlook by bringing this back to the near term. First off, as Rex mentioned, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance. We've had a really strong first half. Our backlog remains robust, and we're expecting a solid performance in the second half. So we'll provide additional detail with our third quarter results in early November. For 2027, we wanted to provide a preliminary framework because there are several moving pieces in the portfolio, including the PCG acquisition and the planned sale of BWXT Medical. So for purposes of this framework, to be clear, we're assuming that Medical closes at the end of 2026. Our preliminary framework calls for high single-digit revenue growth, high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and modest margin expansion. If you look at this from a Government segment perspective, we expect high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth in total. And that's driven primarily by mid-single-digit naval nuclear propulsion growth and robust double-digit special materials growth as the defense fuels and the HPDU programs continue to ramp. We expect Government margins to be flat to modestly higher with strong operational performance, partially offset by mix from the continued ramp of the customer-funded infrastructure programs. Within Commercial, we expect high single-digit organic growth in 2027. And we're coming off a particularly strong year of growth in 2026. So it creates a little more challenging year-over-year comparison, but it also assumes kind of a measured contribution for new orders. So there is potential upside depending on the timing of orders and how we execute. Reported Commercial revenue growth is expected to be low single digits, as the full year contribution of PCG is largely offset by the assumed planned sale of Medical. And we expect Commercial margins to expand 50 to 100 basis points, really 100 basis points, excluding Medical, which reflects the continued improvement of that underlying business. The reason that we're providing this '27 framework now is that it's the first year on the path to 2030, and we wanted to make the bridge to 2030 visible. So as you can see, we have strong underlying organic growth, initial margin expansion and continued cash generation. So to wrap it up, let me leave you with the financial thesis for BWXT. We have a greater visibility, a stronger growth profile and clear path to higher margins and substantially higher cash generation. That cash generation, combined with the strengthening of our balance sheet, gives us increasing opportunities to invest behind what we're seeing in the markets ahead. So the model straightforward, really grow the business profitably, expand margins, convert those earnings into cash and reinvest that cash with discipline. And as we do these things consistently, we believe BWXT will compound earnings, free cash flow and shareholder value through 2030 and beyond. And with that, I'll turn it to Rex for closing remarks.
Rex Geveden
executiveOkay. Thank you, Mike. I'll wrap it up here. I do want to thank you again for attending, those of you who came in person and those that joined us by way of the webcast. We're honored by your participation and your interest in BWXT. I do want to thank my team for delivering, I think, a very clear and compelling message today for investing in BWXT. Particularly, thanks to Chase Jacobson, who leads Investor Relations and put this all together. So I will conclude by returning to the investment thesis, a single chart here, and make 5 key points for you. First, demand is inflecting now. I think we've made that case clear. As we've said multiple times today, that's showing up in our backlog that increased from $4 billion to $8.4 billion. And the demand is underscored by these major secular themes that we talked about, that intersection of economic security, national security and energy security, all of which are begging for nuclear solutions. That's the reason why nuclear is in the spotlight these days. I think we've established that BWXT appears in virtually every part of the value chain. No one else could make this claim, I'm quite certain. We participate in literally every uranium assay, from high-purity depleted uranium all the way up to high enriched uranium. No one else -- certainly, no one else in the free world could say that. And we work in virtually every type and scale of reactor technology, light and heavy water reactors, high temperature gas reactors, liquid metal, molten salt, and scales that range from as low as about a megawatt up to gigawatt scales. And we cross all these project phases. We start with licensing and safety analysis. We do design of components and manufacturing there. We provide fuel. We have aftermarket services. So everywhere you look in the nuclear space, you will find -- you'll just -- you're likely to find BWXT being there. We have this unmatched record of delivery. It's been said multiple times today, but it bears repeating, we've delivered 425 of these exclusively beautiful small modular reactors to the nuclear Navy. There's an existence proof that small modular reactors can be built, and then they can run successfully and that you can maintain a supply chain for them, and we've been doing that for decades. We have delivered 325 steam generators to the commercial nuclear power market, 60 more in backlog, decades of nuclear fuel delivery to the Navy and half the commercial fuel to the Canadian market through John's business to Ontario Power Generation. We allocate capital to improve capacity, capability and efficiency in our existing plants, and we acquire to amplify our strategic intentions. I think we've made that case very clear today. I'm thrilled with the acquisitions that we've done historically, and they have delivered significant value for our shareholders. And they have -- and the acquired assets have largely outperformed the acquisition business cases. Kinectrics is on fire. A.O.T. is on fire. I expect we'll see a similar story at PCG unfold. And the ones that are in the rearview mirror, when we did the GE acquisition in Canada, all of those have been paying dividends for our shareholders. And then we return capital to shareholders when that's the best use of our capital. We are spring-loaded for future growth. We have powerful defensible long-cycle franchise programs which are that core that we talked about. And these are high quality, highly predictable business. And then we've got this optionality for future growth that's expressing everywhere, special materials, advanced nuclear. We'll expand in technical services geographically and otherwise. In the commercial power one, I talked about, compare this period to the beginning of the '70s, '80s and '90s when the globe delivered 600 large reactors. We're going to need at least that many to satisfy the power demands of AI electrification and to replace existing infrastructure. It wouldn't surprise me if we build 1,000 large reactors in the future, and we certainly need to do so. And the wrapping around all the foregoing is this persistent pursuit of operational excellence. Our particular flavor of it is driving performance excellence, but we are dead set on improving the quality of the business, improving operations as we go, driving down the price of nonconformance, driving up margins. You heard Mike forecast that we could go from 17.5% adjusted EBITDA margins now to about 20% when we get to 2030. And we've got a clear path for that. I did assert in the opening that this is the most exciting time in the history of this company, and I think we've made that point resoundingly today. I do think the scale of the opportunity is astounding. And I also believe that BWXT is extraordinarily well positioned to take advantage of that demand and create an opportunity to produce tremendous shareholder value. Okay. With that, I'll close, and thank you. We'll take a brief break. I'll pull Chase back up here to the microphone for -- to announce this.
Chase Jacobson
executiveYes. Thanks, Rex. So we're going to do an 8-minute break. We're going to come back at 11:15 for Q&A. Thanks. [Break]
Chase Jacobson
executiveOkay. I think we're good to get started. Okay. So we're going to do a little bit of a Q&A session here for the next 45 minutes or so. So in addition to the speakers today, we have Suzie Sterner. She's our Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, spends her time in D.C. So great insight to everything going on there, easy to figure out. And we also have Rik Geiersbach, who's our Chief Strategy Officer, joining the panel today. So I just ask that -- we have Kelsey and Beth are bringing you on microphones. So just please introduce yourself. And if your question is directed, somebody please address them with it. And yes, let's get started. And if you're online, feel free to submit your questions via the portal, and I'll try to get to a few of those. Start with Mike -- sorry. Sorry, we had Marc Bianchi.
Marc Bianchi
analystThanks, Chase. It's Marc Bianchi, TD Cowen. Thanks for the presentation, guys. An exciting outlook for the next several years here. I was hoping you could unpack a little bit, the growth opportunities from now to 2030? Talk to us about -- I think you had a pie chart of how much was sort of service, fuel, large components for today. Maybe talk to us a little bit about what that pie chart would look like in 2030 so we can get a sense of the drivers of the growth opportunities?
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveI don't think the pie chart changes that dramatically, Marc. I do think -- we did not specifically lay out exactly specific quantification of each of those opportunities. One of the reasons is primarily because we see growth really across all of those opportunity sets, and we don't want to be held to one path versus another. And so I think we feel very comfortable with what we're seeing. I will tell you this. When you look at the Commercial business, we're going to continue to grow our aftermarket services business. However, I do think we'll see an inflection point of the new commercial nuclear build as we get past 2027 and into the early -- later as part of this decade. So that is an inflection point. That's one of the reasons when you look at '27 kind of initial framework that we're guiding a little bit lower than what we're seeing over our overall 2030 is because you're going to see that inflection in '28 and '29. So I think that's the biggest point there. The other thing I would say is that we continue to see opportunity set as it relates to the infrastructure build and special materials in the Government Operations segment. And the important thing to think about there is that those are long-tail programs. There's significant upside to those programs. And I think we highlighted some of the opportunity set that we see. So those could grow exponentially in comparison to kind of our current framework on the Government Operations. So I would say those are the biggest maybe changes that you'll see over the next few years. But otherwise, we -- the great thing is we're seeing growth opportunities really across the portfolio. And so I think there's a number of ways that we can win and hit those targets.
Chase Jacobson
executiveOkay. Mike?
Michael Ciarmoli
analystMike Ciarmoli, Guggenheim Securities. Thanks for all of the information here. Rex led that story, remember it well. Just on the outlook, I guess, Mike or Rex, as we think about that growth trajectory, it seems that there's some sort of placeholder for M&A there. I mean, you're going to have a lot of capital to deploy. Is that embedded in the outlook? And then I guess the bigger question, and we're getting a lot of this, the opportunity with Westinghouse. I think you framed it as a couple of hundred million. Is your dollar content locked in there yet? Do those orders, if we get those orders by year-end, does that change how we should think about the slope of growth? And I think, Mike, you just said it's more like a '28 inflection. But just any additional color there on Westinghouse and M&A?
Unknown Executive
executiveI think -- so two questions, right? One, how much M&A is in there. I guess for Mike and then probably for John to talk about the content on Westinghouse.
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveYes. So to be clear on that, over 50%, we see in kind of our predictable core from an organic growth standpoint. We did include M&A as part of additional growth opportunity set. However, as I mentioned in the comments, we're not beholden to M&A in order to hit our growth outlook. So I think -- the reason we didn't specifically break it out is because we could see multiple paths, and we wanted the optionality to be able to pursue those paths. And then from a '27 standpoint -- and I'll let John talk about the specifics around Westinghouse. But we do see opportunity for upside, as I mentioned, but a lot of that will depend exactly on timing of orders as well as the execution of those builds. So we didn't want to get too far ahead. We'll have some additional details as we get into the Q3 results.
John MacQuarrie
executiveYes, I'd add, we're building a really great relationship with Westinghouse. We've been doing a lot of work on establishing a commercial relationship between us for those components. We've got a lot of bidding that we've done there for plants, anywhere they deploy. They know our capacity. They know what we're ready to do, what we're capable of. They're working through qualifying us for all of the components that they need. So we're optimistic about how that opportunity looks for us. We've got the legacy work that PCG has done. So that makes us feel pretty good about the outlook there.
Chase Jacobson
executiveMark?
Mark Shooter
analystThanks, Chase. Mark Shooter from William Blair. Rex, you've spoken a lot about using government opportunities to establish capacity and then the potential to repurpose that also for commercial applications. The GAO outlined a $37 billion in their report for domestic enrichment needs just for the NNSA or other government uses. I was just wondering if you could comment a little bit on that $37 billion number? And what share you guys may look to take from that? And then if that's just the government number, is there a larger commercial obligation?
Rex Geveden
executiveYes. Thanks, Mark. I'll comment and then ask Joe Miller to add to it. That $37 billion number was about what it would take to reconstitute the defense fuels capability in an unobligated fashion. So that's all the way from mining through eventually, high-enriched uranium. So the opportunity there, as we stated in the presentation, is around low enriched uranium and high assay low-enriched uranium. And we're going to go and compete for that. I think we have a chance to win a good chunk of that, if not all of it, is how I see it. Now as to commercial possibilities there, because it's an unobligated fuel capability, U.S.-mined uranium or bringing depleted uranium tails up to natural and above-the-ground mine in a way. And building with U.S. sourced materials, machining in U.S. plants and all of that, there's going to be a natural competitive disadvantage to that capability relative to the commercial market, particularly, especially as it relates to established capability like [ Eurico's ] plant in New Mexico. That said, if you could work with the government on an arrangement where you could make sales on a contribution margin basis on the edge of that business, I think there's maybe a commercial opportunity there. But let there be no doubt, this is an enormous opportunity even with just the government demand.
Joseph Miller
executiveYes, I'll agree with that. And I'll also say that scale-up is really important in driving down the cost of delivery of the individual centrifuges. And Rex mentioned all of the equipment, all of the components have to come from U.S. sources. So we're really focusing on how does the design compare to how we can mass produce to how we can create the supply chain. And then we need to go back to the government and say this is what we think is look like, and then the opportunities will come from that. And right now, I mentioned the $1.5 billion contract. That's to get us to a point where we can go off and start the enrichment process. There's more contracts that are follow-ons from that, that we expect just from the existing start that we had last year. And then layering on everything that Rex said just provides us more opportunity as we continue to scale.
Chase Jacobson
executiveTomo?
Tomohiko Sano
analystTomo Sano from JPMorgan. On commercial components, AP1000 and SMRs appear not to be fully captured at CANDU-like breadth. So could you talk about any reasons, opportunities? And then how you think about the -- to get those kind of opportunities in-house versus, including potential M&A, please?
John MacQuarrie
executiveWell, for the Westinghouse components and for the SMR components, we're working on -- we're not in need of additional M&A activity to be able to produce those parts. We can make those in the facilities that we have today. Other than, as I said, we want to add capacity for very large components on water for logistics, transportation reasons. So I think we're really well positioned for that, just as we are for the CANDU reactor components. It's just that our scope on a CANDU is very large because of our history there and everything we can do for them. So I wouldn't characterize them any differently when you look at those reactor types in terms of our opportunity and what we can deliver with what we have within our capabilities today.
Chase Jacobson
executiveJohn, there's a question here online about the chart that we showed with the CANDU opportunities, right, in the past, well into the 40s. Can you just talk about the kind of like what your view on that market is and what the revenue outlook could be? Or what's your kind of view of like revenue potential is out longer term?
John MacQuarrie
executiveYes. So what we're looking at in -- I think, in the near term is at least 4 reactors at the Bruce site, what Bruce Power calls [ Bruce C ]. And whether that's CANDU or another technology will be decided soon. And then on TerraPower Generations looking at a site near their Darlington site called the [ Wesleyville ] site. And they've said probably 8 reactors at that site. So it could become 1 of the world's largest nuclear generating sites. They're already -- both organizations are really advancing into this. So Bruce Power has been working on environmental assessment, kind of worked for a while. They just got $300 million from the provincial government to continue developing that. OPG has formed a dedicated team to deploy new nuclear. So what we're looking at, as I said, is maybe $350 million to $700 million per reactor and expect those reactors would deploy with like sort of a gap between each one coming online that would be something like 18 months or so. And there's probably an overlap between that [ Bruce C ] work and that [ Wesleyville ] work.
Chase Jacobson
executivePerfect. Thank you. Bob? In the middle here.
Bob Labick
analystThank you. Thank you. Bob Labick, CJS Securities. Thanks for a great presentation. Appreciate it. One of the things you talked about was you're the current leader in TRISO production, and there's noise out there, and that's a big opportunity going forward. In your growth CapEx numbers, which you kind of just gave us for the next few years, you have like 1% to 1.5% of revenue for growth, and then the rest of maintenance. Is there TRISO expansion in that? Or when do you decide to put more capital behind TRISO expansion as that market begins to develop in the 2030s and beyond?
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveSo the answer is yes. We do have TRISO expansion capital within those targets. And so we do feel comfortable that we could stay within those targets. I would say right now, we're expanding our TRISO capacity. So we do see some increased demand over the next few years, and we are planning to invest capital to expand the capacity. Now those will be modest investments, and they are tied directly to demand signals that we're seeing. Over the longer term, what we really need to see is HALEU availability in order for us to really feel confident in the longer-term outlook related to TRISO. So we have not made a decision on a new greenfield facility, and that's -- we probably won't make a decision on that for a little while. And so I think in the time being, that's what we're focused on trying to increase the capacity and move that forward based on what we can. I don't know, Joe, if you have anything else to add there?
Joseph Miller
executiveYes, I think it's well put. And we're watching the market demand signal, we're feeding the market out of our facility in Lynchburg right now. Mike mentioned it, I mentioned it. We're making some small investments there to stay ahead of the market, but we watch all the dynamics, right? Where is the HALEU going to come from? How fast can we make TRISO for our market, and where are the real contracts that desire signals high? We're translating that into demand signal, and we're staying ahead of the curve just by keeping tabs on what's happening in the marketplace.
Chase Jacobson
executiveAndre?
Andre Madrid
analystYes. Andre Madrid with U.S. Bancorp, BTIG. I wanted to talk on naval nuclear. Maybe first, [ Sac ], you mentioned 4% to 6% CAGR. And that's based on existing programs. But I guess just what does high watermark look like if battleship and [ AUKUS ]? And then additionally, I think during earnings, you had mentioned that Ford-class procurement cadence might accelerate a little bit. But I don't see that on the slide. Is that still on the table? And if so, I mean, is that another potential upside driver?
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveYes. So I think from a [ Ford ] cadence standpoint, you'll see that in the shipbuilding schedule. So that did accelerate, and we have incorporated that. I think when I mentioned on the last earnings was that we wouldn't see that really until around the 2030 time frame. So that's why you're not seeing it in at least the near-term numbers. We haven't given a direct, call it, upside related to the battleship and some of the AUKUS programs. I will tell you that those aren't -- the battleship is not forecasted into the 2030. That still has to go through appropriations in a number of hurdles. So that certainly is upside. And I know we don't really talk about kind of content by reactor. But the reason that we laid it out with Ford being kind of the largest and then you can see kind of the directional kind of capacity with Virginia and AUKUS being the smallest in kind of Columbia and the battleship being in the middle, it was just to give you some sense of as we get an additional, call it, battleship through the factory, what could that do from an exponential standpoint. And I'll just remind everybody that we don't sell a specific price per reactor because of the large fixed cost within the plants. We actually have to establish those large fixed costs and then determine how many ship sets the government needs in order for us to determine final pricing. So while I'd love to be able to give a price per ship set, it just doesn't work like that contractually. And that's why we don't give a better idea, just because that can change depending on just the overall volume.
Chase Jacobson
executiveIf we're going to go to [ JF ], I'm going to just going to take one online real quick. I guess just sticking up as just -- it's kind of in line with the shipbuilding schedule and what's going on in D.C. Can you talk about the midterm elections? And what impact do you see that having on BWXT, depending on how it shakes out?
Suzanne Sterner
executiveSo I'm guessing that one is for me.
Chase Jacobson
executiveThat's for you, Suzie.
Suzanne Sterner
executiveSo first, the government relations team works extremely hard and has been very successful in ensuring that we have bipartisan, bicameral support of all of our programs. So whether the Rs are in control or the Ds are in control, BWXT is still at the table. And we like to say, if you're not at the table, you are on the menu. We're at the table. I would also highlight that our programs, our priority programs for our government customers across the board, Columbia, Virginia, the Ford, right, but also enrichment that you just heard about. And we're seeing that throughout the cycle from whether, again, it's a Democratic administration or a Republican administration. So we are in good shape. For the midterms, I'll put my finger up and test the wind today. I was checking the polls, and I'm sure you all have seen right now, the generic ballot is up for the Dems, about 8.5 points. It fluctuates. It was up to 8.7 at the end of last week, it's come down a little. I don't know why, but it has. And if you look at the toss up races, they're in the Senate, 7 are considered toss ups. Sometimes it gets to 9. And of the 7, 5 of those are Republican seats. So the Senate is surprisingly in play. I don't think anybody even 6 months ago would have thought that. And then in the House, it varies between 21, 22 seats, and of those, 16 are Republican. So you can see which way the wave is going. But again, for BWXT, we're in good shape.
Rex Geveden
executiveI might add a comment to that. Yes. And Suzie's team does a great job on the Hill and in the Executive branch, making sure our interests are cared for. I would say as the CEO of BWXT, I experienced 20 days of Obama, Trump, 45, all the Biden administration, Trump, 47. We've seen changes in polarity in the White House, changes in polarity in the Senate and in the House, and the support for nuclear has endured. There is support for nuclear on the left and the right, support for shipbuilding on the left and right, and that's been consistent throughout the last 10 years. And again, I would agree with Suzie that it just doesn't move our business around very much.
Chase Jacobson
executiveOkay. Jan-Frans?
Jan-Frans Engelbrecht
analystJan Engelbrecht at Baird. I think this question would be for Rex, Joe or for Mike. That's true with special materials. If you look at $550 million of revenue in '26, it could go to almost be $1 billion franchise just after this decade. But I was thinking more about sort of the margin potential for this business. Joe, you talked about automation for Centrifuge Manufacturing. Just are you guys thinking about margins for that business longer term? And just sort of the technical or the labor that you would need to scale up that franchise?
Joseph Miller
executiveYes, I'll start. And I would say the margins are going to be similar to what we do for other government customers. But right now, it's just too early to predict. But your point is a good one. We're building greenfield sites. We're building a lot of footprint. So we are industrializing both of those operations. And it's interesting from a technical standpoint as well because HPDU is a chemical process, while the Centrifuge Manufacturing is a mechanical process, where we're going to be manufacturing lots of both in both factories. And so that allows us to use factory automation from a clean sheet essentially and how we implement both of those projects. It also allows us the capability through the other sites, nuclear fuel sites are chemical. The mechanical process we have in our northern sites in particular can adopt the technologies pretty pragmatically as we build up the enterprise. So I would see an uplift in margins throughout government operations. That's the reason why we predicted what we predicted, based on new technologies being inserted into new factories, not necessarily stopping production to increase our technology base. So it's too early to say specific to those 2 programs, but I would align them with what we normally have, and then we'll uplift the margins as we ensure technology and get to a rapid cadence in a more distinct cadence of delivery.
Chase Jacobson
executiveTom?
Unknown Analyst
analystThomas Meric, Encompass Capital. Capital allocation question for Rex. A lot of the inflecting businesses you have now, whether it's TRISO or in Richmond, several others have been talked about today, would benefit greatly from increased capacity. I think Joe mentioned enrichment quite well. They would also benefit greatly from reduced unit cost of production for the commercial industry. So I'm curious, how you hold those 2 things in tension or even just how you think longer term about lowering unit cost of production, either a time line or a ranking or just any kind of strategic commentary around you getting costs lower?
Rex Geveden
executive[indiscernible] and John to pile in here. So historically, we've been in pretty low rate production -- pretty low rate production environment. Right? We're delivering 2 nuclear ship sets a year to the Navy, 2 plus, 2 or 3 steam generators, a few of them a year and that kind of thing. And so we haven't had sort of an eye on high rate production and what you might do around that. These opportunities that Joe talked about in defense fuels and also in high-purity depleted uranium, we're going to have large factories with high throughput. So we'll be highly focused on that. That said, even in the low-rate production environment, we are focused on what we can do around throughput in particular. OpEx is broader than that, but we've been focused on throughput. John talked about it in his briefing, taking those steam generator deliveries from 1 per month up to 1.5 per month. And what's behind that is that when you look at where we are right now, 5 million square feet of nuclear qualified manufacturing space, that's impressive. But the answer to every question about capacity can't be build or acquire a new plant. Right? Sometimes the answer is get more production out of the plant that you have. If we do 1.5 steam generators -- sorry, 1.5 steam generators a month instead of 1 per month, then we've got 50% more capacity there, very obviously. So that's what -- that's how we think about it. We're really trying to push throughput and expand at the same time.
Joseph Miller
executiveAnd just to answer your question very specific to TRISO, you need a big demand signal, so you can get a higher volume of throughput through the factory that you build, and then you can bring the overall cost of TRISO. And there is a lot of assertions that TRISO is a very expensive fuel. Well, everything is really expensive when you make a little bit of it. And so 1 of the partnerships that we've established in the press is with Kairos. Kairos has a big demand signal for TRISO in the near future. They have backing by Google, and they want to use that backing to go off and invest strategically in the development of increasing the throughput and reducing the cost of TRISO. We're doing that with them. So they've invested in technology for [ pebble ] manufacturing and robotics and automation, very specific to that fuel. We've been investing in making fuel the right way every day for 2 decades. You combine those efforts with some of the advanced nuclear, advanced technologies staff that we have that have been optimizing the manufacturing practice or processes, then we can create a very cost affordable and palatable fuel cost for TRISO and moving forward. So it's a partnership as well, not just our investment, but who do we tend to partner with. And we partner with those people that can not only provide volumes so we can get to an economy of scale, but also the ingenuity to help us decrease the overall delivery costs.
John MacQuarrie
executiveYes. So it's interesting when you think about the fact that we've got an order for 32 steam generators from Bruce Power, 48 from Ontario Power Generation. What that's allowed us to do is really get into a rhythm of production at a higher rate, but also look at investments in automation, right, that we can really justify much easier with that kind of backlog. And so we're moving hard in that direction. That's really improving productivity and it's lowering cost. And so that's the -- I'd say that's the main way we're addressing costs in our production.
Chase Jacobson
executiveI have a specific guidance question here for Mike on CapEx. So 5% to 6% of sales on average over the medium term, you had talked about higher than that in 2027. Is that still the case? Or are you in the 5% to 6% range? And is there any fluctuation in that 5% to 6% throughout the longer-term period?
Michael Fitzgerald
executiveSo we had signaled previously that we were anticipating our potential to go above the 6% to get into that 7% range in 2027. Right now, we're targeting 6% for 2027. So that's what you'll hear us come out with in a few weeks as we kind of set formal guidance for 2027. As far as the fluctuation, I think it's going to ultimately depend on the opportunities and the timing of where we need to make those investments. So I think it's safe to assume kind of a 5% to 6% range. I don't want to give more specific guidance on that at this point.
Chase Jacobson
executivePete?
Peter Skibitski
analystCan you guys talk a little bit more about space? If I think about military and maybe NASA, maybe even commercial, where do you guys see as the largest opportunity in space? And is there anything we should look for in terms of traction in the next couple of years, let's say?
Joseph Miller
executiveYes. I'll start off with what NASA is doing. So they have a project called [ SR1 Freedom ]. It's a nuclear electric propulsion design that's being worked with the National Labs is working with NASA. So that will be the first launch in civil space for nuclear products in the coming future. And so that is supposed to be the pathfinder for a [ LUNAR ] power system. And that LUNAR power system is what we're seeing in early RFIs and draft RFPs and things of that nature. So I see a renewed interest in space. We had this 2017 to early 2020s interest out of NASA and some of our national security customers. That's now in this new administration converted over to the SR1 Freedom. So I would track that one as the space opportunity. On the national security side, as I mentioned in the slides, there are other opportunities for power and propulsion, but they're pretty new. And so as those continue to develop, we'll put more out about that.
Chase Jacobson
executiveThat's Josh.
Joshua Korn
analystJosh Korn from Wells Fargo. I wanted to ask about the size of the potential investment for the defense fuels. And who's paying for that? Might any of that be funded by the government? Or is that mostly on BWXT?
Joseph Miller
executiveSo we made an initial investment in defense fuels. It was procuring the land, building, starting the construction process and the design process for the construction of our demonstration facility. Beyond that, it's been a government investment. This is a government-owned technology. This is a government-owned fuel source, and so we expect that to continue. I know Mike has some more to add.
Chase Jacobson
executiveJeff?
Jeffrey Campbell
analystJeff Campbell, Seaport Research Partners. First of all, congratulations on a great event. Rex, you've talked a lot about how BWXT made a pivot to become the [ emergent ] supplier to the industry. But you do have some creative work that's coming back to the floor, for example, mPower. And in that case, it looks like you decided to hand that off to a third party and secure to be the [ merchant ] provider for that if it gets anywhere. I thought John said that there might be some commercial potential with Pele down the line. And I wondered if that came to pass, would you follow the same playbook? Would there be a third-party partner that might be involved in that? Or would that be something you'd keep for yourself?
Joseph Miller
executiveWe'll bring on partnerships to commercialize microreactors, but not for the reactor. That will be us. And so the way that we think about the segments -- and John can add on to this -- is the gigawatt scale, the SMRs, we're a merchant supplier, and we're going to stay true to that mission in perpetuity. For the micro reactors, we'll do 2 things. One, we'll provide fuel for our own micro reactors like we have for Pele. And for the Janus program that's using a scaled-up version of Pele, so 1.5 megawatts is the thermal output or the electrical output of the Pele reactor. Our BANR reactor, which is part of the Janus program, now is 20 megawatts. So it's a scaled-up version, that will be a BWXT design. BWXT will manufacture not just the fuel, but the entire reactor and serve as the prime for the hardware delivery. But there is also a commercial use case for this program. And so we will bring partners on utilities, people like that to organizations like that to help us fully commercialize that microreactor technology. And then in addition to what we were providing for TRISO, we will make TRISO for the entire industry, whether it be an SMR like Kairos or other microreactor vendors like Antares, we'll continue to feed that fuel into the marketplace because volume is king here and we need to get to volume. We need to get to economy of scale, if you will. So it's a little bit of a mixed bag. And just -- and then when I talked about mPower, that was very specific to participating and continuing the design, testing and licensing. But the ultimate manufacturing, much like the rest of our SMR customers will come as a merchant supplier with John.
John MacQuarrie
executiveYes, and we're well positioned for that mPower supply when it comes. We did a lot of work to prepare for that, designed for manufacture building, we've made markups. So we're in good shape to be able to meet that demand just like any other SMR customer.
Chase Jacobson
executiveThere's gotta be more questions. Mike?
Michael Ciarmoli
analystJoe, just to stay on TRISO, can you give us a sense maybe, is it 5, 10 years full rate production? What sort of an annual market could be? Or if you want to be guarded there, maybe even just talk about where cost per kilograms are now, where revenue per kilogram is, where those could go with economies of scale?
Joseph Miller
executiveYes. I would say I'm not going to answer any of those questions right now just because -- and they're good questions. And believe me, we have integrated models on our Pele reactor versus our 20-megawatt BANR reactor. There's different economics for both of those. The 1 thing that we should keep in mind is for micro reactors, the fuel cost of the microreactor is substantial as compared to the overall delivery cost of the hardware. That's different for AP1000. The fuel cost of an AP1000 is very small. It's almost in the noise. It's maybe 10% tops for the delivery of that reactor. And Rex talked about what the enduring fuel costs are for a nuclear system is much less than you would have from natural gas or other types of systems. So -- or combustion system. So for us, it's all about scalability. And that's the reason why we're not only supplying the existing -- the current market right now, but we are spending a decent amount of time and resource along with Kairos to do development activities. So when we hit the go button when that market does materialize, it harkens back to Mike's comment. If the HALEU is there, the demand signal is there, the real contracts translate from desire to demand, we'll be able to hit the go button with a very economical case. And we track that in integrated models, not just with BWXT reactors, but also the partners that we're working with.
Chase Jacobson
executiveI'll take an online question here on M&A. So for Rik. And I guess the question is really asking is if you could just talk about the pipeline that you're seeing and if you're changing your view in terms of size of M&A targets?
Unknown Executive
executiveOkay. Yes, sure. So the pipeline right now is quite robust. So every business area that we talked about today has got a very robust pipeline from assessment to cultivation to transaction, to working through it, and we have them in various stages of being here. Relative to size, we continue to look for small tuck-ins, of course. We're looking at more medium-sized plays as well as some potentially more transformative plays. I think if you wanted to sort of think about the framework that we're looking at, it's going to track with our very intentional language we put in there, sort of global nuclear, industrial champion. Right? So you can track against all those things. Global, we are clearly a strong player in North America and want to continue to be stronger. We are looking for geographic diversity. That's global. Sort of nuclear. We love the markets we're playing in. We continue to believe that there's opportunity there for energy security, economic security, [ not ] security, it's going to be a nuclear play. Industrial. We're unapologetic about the fact that we make things. We service things. Right? So you go to Cambridge, you go to Lynchburg, you go to [ Barberton ], you go to Mount Vernon, you go out of these places, we are a nuclear company. We love that. We want to continue to do that. It's going to be industrial. And then champion. So we want to get stuff that's high quality, that has good capabilities and has good margins that's going to be expansive to the earnings potential, to the margin potential, free cash flow potential as well. So we want to win global, nuclear, industrial, champion.
Chase Jacobson
executiveAll right. Any final questions out there? All right. Well, thank you, everybody, for attending in person and virtually. Thank you to all the speakers and the Q&A panel. And yes, feel free to reach out if you have any questions. It was great seeing everybody. Thank you.
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