CaixaBank, S.A. ($CABK)

Earnings Call Transcript · April 30, 2026

BME ES Financials Banks Earnings Calls 92 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Marta Noguer

Executives
#1

Good morning, and welcome to CaixaBank results presentation for the first quarter of 2026. We are joined today by our CEO, Gonzalo Gortazar and our CFO, Javier Pano. As usual, we plan to spend about 30 minutes with the presentation and about 45 minutes to an hour with Q&A. The Q&A is live, and you should have received instructions by e-mail on how to participate. Needless to say, at the end of the call, my team and I will be at your full disposal. And without further ado, Gonzalo, the floor is yours.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#2

Thank you, Marta. Good morning, everybody, and let's get into substance. So first quarter of the year, and we feel quite happy with the way things are progressing, particularly in light of the unstable environment that we have outside of Spain and particularly in the Middle East and its consequences. So you see volume growth, 7% in year-on-year revenues. You saw the NII, which is in line with our expectation and our guidance in the quarter still affected by negative repricing as we had explained in the last presentation, very positive figure from services, insurance and fees and commissions, 7.5% year-on-year. . Quite remarkable in terms of the speed at which we continue to see asset quality improvements coming down to just below 2% in terms of NPLs and maintaining a very attractive cost of risk, which we see sustainable for quite some time. good capital creation. We decided to us in line with our policy to affect another share buyback, which we are announcing today, return on tangible equity close to 18%. And in fact, we are improving our guidance for the year from you'd say, tweaking from around 18% to above 18%, and we'll get into the reasons for that. We reiterate our guidance and positive spirits about what we're seeing despite the very concerning environment in the Middle East. So I start with the economy, not on this slide, but just learned the figures for GP in Spain, 0.6% growth quarter-on-quarter, which is higher than our expectations. Our economic segment was expecting somewhere between 0.4%, 0.5% and embedded into our current estimate of 2.4% GDP for the year was 0.5% growth. So starting better than expected. And I think this is remarkable because the first quarter, not only Sudan, but also in Spain, we had some heavy rains in February and problems with particularly train infrastructure. And to be honest, seeing 0.6% growth in first quarter is very good news. We still have to incorporate into this 2.4% growth that we have for this year forecast. We need to incorporate the impact of situation in the Middle East and the measures that the government in Spain has taken to offset at least partially what may come from increase in crude and oil prices and gas and fossil fuels and the consequences. But now we have, again, a positive data from this first quarter. So quite good. Euro zone numbers have been a bit more mixed between the strong Germany and weak France and Italy, so so. But in overall, the environment, again, is very resilient. And if you look at what's driving growth, which I'm not going to go for the list because you know what's happening in Spain in terms of very positive dynamics, very strong inertia. And some of the factors that, I would say, prevent us from having an impact from the Middle East, but certainly moderate any negative impact from the Middle East, particularly the lower reliance on fossil fuels, thanks to renewals in Spain, and now we're seeing last few weeks, remarkably low prices in Spain relative to most other European countries, potentially positive, as we're seeing already impact on tourist based on the spending of cards for nonresidents. We've already seen in these weeks petrodynamics for tourism in Spain. We'll obviously have to continue monitoring the situation. But all in all, to be honest, within all the conservatism and prudence that one has to have in such a volatile environment, we see both Spain and ourselves in a very good relative position. even Bank of Spain is saying even in an adverse scenario, they still see growth in Spain at 2%. Time will tell, obviously, the impact of rate movements, which is again very volatile. But clearly, it's suggesting increases in rates by the ECB and already increased rates in the markets are also positive, as you know, our NII sensitivity. I'm sure that Javier will discuss that in some detail. So with that kind of background, which is, in this case, is very, very relevant because it really is critical. What we see is our performance being, I'd say, above expectations, above our internal expectations in terms of client acquisition 372,000 in the last 12 months in relation to our clients, volume growth of 6.6% and then market shares with some delay, but we continue to see sustained continuous increase in market shares across most of our product range. Transformation, technology, AI, we're spending a lot of money and a lot of time in making sure that we adapt to what the new technologies offer to our clients and to ourselves that as far as we can, we not only adapt but we lead. Here are some of the initiatives, basically they have to do with how the clients interact with ourselves through the app mostly, how our employees interact with the bank, and this is -- helping employees in various forms, most relevant that we are deploying out to the whole network is for the preparation of commercial meetings with customers, which is bringing down the preparation time by 75%, i.e., freeing up a lot of capacity to grow and then there's a lot of AI and technology we are implementing looking on how we run operations, how sort of review processes end-to-end and how we make them much more efficient. We are very happy with the fact that this is not just plans, but actually things are happening and starting to have an impact as we speak in this quarter. Going back to financial performance. Lending, 7.2% growth year-on-year for the performing portfolio. Growth quarter-on-quarter in a quarter is obviously seasonally difficult. We have 1.1% growth. It's quite notable. And then you see residential mortgages, 6.7 million, consumer lending, 12.3% in business lending 8.8%, is very strong across the board and comparing to previous years. the traction or the pickup of activities is very remarkable. And obviously, at some point, we'll stop growing even faster than the previous 12 months, but the ability to maintain those levels is what's embedded in our guidance and certainly the first quarter has surprised us on the upside. Customer funds, again, similar story, 6.3% growth in wealth management in deposits and market movements. But we also wanted to share with you what was the last quarter because, obviously, that's when we had the negative market effect in March, in particular. You can see that despite those effects of negative EUR 3 billion actually in April were up by more than EUR 7 billion, so we're recovering that those impacts very easily, again, subject to markets, but so far, so good. And then most remarkable net inflows have stayed positive in the first quarter and continues to accelerate in the month of April, you see the run rate at EUR 1.5 billion. So pretty good performance despite the events in Iran makes quite satisfied with where we are and obviously confident that we can continue in that direction. You have some more details on Wealth Management. You can see how net inflows have been relatively well balanced between mutual and pension funds and savings insurance. The end of the first quarter, end of period ARMs are at the same level than the average. And as you can imagine after what I said of the April performance, this is going up. So obviously, looks good for the rest of the year if the market does not deteriorate again the story of our potential on this part of the business is well known to you, our preeminent position, what we've done and what we see is another quarter that indicates that position and opportunity. Similar reasoning applies to protection insurance, 12% premium growth, very balanced between life risk and nonlife. My box continues to be a great success. And here is probably the area where we're gaining market share more rapidly across the business lines. You can see the last 12 months in life and non-life and Here, you have some delay in the data. Some of it is still from December, but it's actually working well across the board, health, household, good performance, gaining market share in line with what we've done for the last 10 years and a lot more in front of us because there's clearly much more potential in Spain and generally the Eurozone. And I'd like to finish with just a summary of what I said. You see what we're saying for the environment, the economy in Spain, we have lower reliance with better shield from Middle East crisis. Our clients are less levered than ever and the financial sector generally is in a position to support the economy. So similarly to the opposite of what we saw in the great crisis, where Spain was badly hit in the financial sector, not as I have to say, but the finance sector overall, obviously had some trouble. Here, we have the opposite. The financial sector is going to help the economy which is quite nice. And on our side, it's our scale, our balance sheet, our limited risks give us a lot of coincidence with that we have a good period ahead of us, hence, the reaffirmation of our guidance and that slight increase for a short-term return on tangible equity, which I'm sure will discuss later on. And with that, I guess, Javier?

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#3

Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Gonzalo. Well, from my side, as always, the additional details on the P&L and the balance sheet. Starting with the consolidated income statement, as you know, very well, net income at EUR 1.372 billion. This is up by 7% year-on-year, more than 5% quarter-on-quarter. moving upwards, first NII, moving to revenues. It's up by 0.6% year-on-year. Quarter-on-quarter, down by 2%. You know that this quarter affected by seasonal impacts mainly a larger day count and larger negative -- still negative loan industry sets, although I'm sure -- it's pretty sure it's the last quarter to have those negative impacts. Then on revenues on services pretty good news. As Gonzalo was saying, a strong commercial activity here, main on protection, up by 7.5% year-on-year quarter-on-quarter, slightly negative as we are comparing with the fourth quarter last year. You know the fourth quarter always a strong positive seasonality. So that is why it's slightly negative. Below, the revenues doing well, also up by 6% year-on-year. Dividends, I would remark that we have the dividend from Angola from BFA, slightly smaller than last year. You know that we sold part of the stake. This is why we have a slightly smaller dividend on that front. Equity accounted up by more than 10% year-on-year, strong contribution from CCaaS other operating income and expenses and trading pretty much in line with last year. Total operating expenses also in line with guidance, moving up by 4.6%. And impairments or loan loss charges, although higher in euro terms, if you look at the cost of risk on a 12-month trailing basis, it's currently 23 basis points. So this is down by 2 basis points versus last year. Good performance on other provisions and gains and losses. And my final comment here would be that on taxes, we are including write-up of DAs for EUR 155 million. A few words on Portugal. Here, we are disclosing the -- what we call the BPI segment. That is for the first quarter, EUR 89 million net income. You know that the BFA dividend, it's in the corporate center. Well, here also a really strong performance in terms of business volume, up by 5.5% year-on-year. Since we took control back in 2017, business volume up by 43% versus 26% in the rest of the industry. So a remarkable performance that results into broad-based market share gains, as you see here, on key products even on a year-on-year basis. we are gaining market share in Portugal. High profitability, ROT, 17.4%, in line with the group and a really strong balance sheet with NPLs at 1.6%, coverage 82%. And on the right-hand side, you have several KPIs on the, well, transformation process on IT and digital in Portugal, and we are going to be able to follow up as BPI has its own program. on that front also. With that, let's move to the usual details on NII. On the central part, you have the usual quarterly NII bridge. You have a negative here from the count, minus EUR 28 million. This is larger than last year as the size of the balance sheet and volumes in general are also larger we have positives from business and ALCO. On ALCO, you may see that we have increased the size of our hedging portfolio and the fixed income portfolio. But this has been done late into the quarter. So the impact in the quarter is not that much. But once you have, let's say, a longer-term view on the upper left bridge, you may see the evolution on a year-on-year basis. You may see that business volume and ALCO is clearly offsetting the negative impact from client yields. As I was saying, on ALCO, basically, what we have done is to front-load hedging activity for the second quarter, taking advantage of the significant increase in market rates at some point, even the market pricing for rate hikes from the CV. What we have done is to form load part of our, let's say, regular hedging activity and here, you have hedges up by close to EUR 6 billion. The fixed income book by close to EUR 2 billion on top of like EUR 3 billion of maturities that we have had in the quarter. Below, you have margins and yields. I would remark that net interest margin is already starting to move up to 163 basis points, a trend that is expected to gradually continue in coming quarters. The customer spread at 300 basis points ex hedges on deposits, and you see that it's down by 2 basis points. The pace of reduction is clearly coming down and set to stabilize and start increasing again soon. And on the right-hand side, bottom grade, you have the back book yield of the loan book, 345 basis points down by 4 basis points. This is also set to stabilize and start growing soon and cost of deposits hedges at 45 basis points. Precisely on deposits, let's remain on the composition. Here, you have to remember, average quarterly balances for interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing. The most remarkable in my view here is that the relentless growth of interest-bearing deposits, up by 6% year-on-year, also with positive evolution in the quarter, as you may see. We have a reduction on interest-bearing balances. This is basically clearly outflows from the public sector. And the weight of those interest-bearing deposits at 26.4%, pretty much stable since already a few quarters. The cost of those interest-bearing balances stable in the quarter at 156%. And this is despite the fact that, as you may see, 12-month rates are already starting to move up starting to price rate hikes later into the year. Moving to revenue and services, really good performance here, up by 7.5% year-on-year, the remarkable in my view here is that the combination of wealth management, protection insurance and CIB revenues is growing by 12% year-on-year, much more than offsetting the underlying, let's say, the inflationary pressure that the industry is feeling on fees on lower added value products or more basic fees on certain products, maintenance fees on current accounts, debit cards, et cetera. But the whole thing is that the key engines are really firing on all cylinders, and much more than compensating that. You may see Wealth Management up by 9.4% year-on-year, strong growth despite the volatility in markets in March. Protection insurance up by 13.5% year-on-year. Strong commercial activity here, mainly on life insurance and health insurance and also on the back of all the cross-selling attached to new mortgage production. Moving to costs. Here, everything according to plan, up by 4.6% year-on-year. depreciation costs, as you may see, moving up by 7.4%. This is the result of the IT and AI transformation drive that is going on. But while everything according to our planning, Cost to income at 39.6%, which compares extremely well with the peer average that is above 50%. Asset quality as good as ever. So we have been able to reduce our NPLs by circa EUR 300 million fully organically 8.3 billion, the stock of NPLs. That is an NPL ratio of 198% below the -- our peers here in Spain. You may see that the evolution across the different segments is really a good one even on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So not any sign of deterioration in any portfolio. Record high coverage, 79% and with the unassigned collective provisions that have remained unchanged this quarter over EUR 300 million. Risk, as I said before, 23 basis points on a month trading basis even lower if we annualize the first quarter at 22 basis points. Liquidity also as ample as always, 222 -- 220, sorry, liquidities sources, LCR, 194% and NSFR 145%, a really solid loan-to-deposit ratio really stable, 87.6%, that compares extremely well with peers, as you know very well. And this is on the back of really stable retail deposits and corporate operational deposits. A few words on MREL and funding. We are ending the quarter with an MREL ratio at 28%, 26%. This is an MDA buffer 336 basis points, pretty much the same as the MDA buffer, slightly 1 basis points -- 1 basis point below 340 basis points. And on the right-hand side, you have our funding activity, 60% of our 3-year plan already executed, a 40% in foreign currency. Remarkably, a few weeks ago, USD 2 billion in nonpreferred with very big demand, and also a few days ago, a new ratings upgrade by Moody's, upgrading our baseline credit assessment to A3. That results into an upgrade on AT1 Tier 2 and senior nonpreferred, stable senior preferred, but this is already taking into account the incoming impact of the full deposit preference, which is actually very good news. And finally, capital, we are already deducting the EUR 8 million, EUR 500 million share buyback from our CET1 ratio. That is a negative impact of 20 basis points. capital accretion, plus 65 basis points. Organic risk-weighted assets, minus 9 basis points. This is basically new land, minus 41 basis points from dividend accrual and 81 and then just a few negative 2 basis points from other impacts. So we are ending the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 12.51%. And then on the right-hand side, you have the evolution of the book value per share, obviously, adjusted by the DPS of $0.50, up by close to 15%. And finally, just a recap of our usual guidance slide. Here, we are upgrading our ROTE to more than 18% from 18% as we have better visibility into the year and some improvements here and there. So thank you very much and ready to the questions.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#4

Operator, we are ready for the next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#5

Next question comes from Mak Mishyn with JB Capital. .

Maksym Mishyn

Analysts
#6

Two questions from my side, please. The first 1 is on loan book press reports, you may have changed your approach to mortgages. I was wondering if this is the case and how you plan to grow your loan book by segment for the remainder of the year. And the second is on NII guidance for 2027. If you plug in the current forward curve would you see in AI in 2017?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#7

Thank you, Max. Good morning. I would start with the mortgage question. There's been no change in our strategy on mortgages. What we are seeing clearly is the fact that we have a very broad presence throughout Spain and the fact that we can fund fixed rate mortgages for the long term as well as cross-sell is definitely a competitive advantage. We still think that given the competitiveness of this market what we should be aiming is to maintain market share. It's nice to have a small few basis points growth, but that is really the factor. Mortgage pricing is increasing. In Spain, it is still obviously below the cost of funding at the same term if you don't include the associated profits from the cross-sell. But if you include the associated profits, then the return is attractive enough. And over the longer term, obviously, you gain clients that tend to be quite positive. So not really any change. The press in Spain is very focused on what's happening here. I keep saying that we have a very attractive rates. So in fact some of the lower rates in Europe for both floating and fixed rate mortgages. And obviously, that's a positive for the economy, but at the same time, given the way we're efficient as an industry and the way we price, including the cross-sell, this is also a sensible growth for the industry. In terms of how do we see the future, you've seen very strong residential mortgage market. I think it is likely to moderate its growth, at least looking at our own production levels, what we see for the second quarter is volumes that are below what we produced last year in terms of new production. That doesn't mean the stock of lending is going to come down, we'll keep growing. We'll keep growing at, I think, a lower pace. And this is about sort of the limitations we have in Spain in terms of building new houses that even though the new house associated new permits are close to 150,000 the realities for the last figures known new houses that were finished were only 83,000. So the timing is a long process for sort of land approvals and just the whole real estate process is not helping. So you're likely to have a slowdown in volumes there. Consumer is doing very, very well. You see this double-digit growth we had last year. Actually, we have even increased it in the first quarter, which is surprising. I think that double digit should come down to high single when you look at sort of likely moderation for the future. But so far, what we see is very strong consumer behavior even the figures from GDP this quarter indicate precisely consumer sort of behavior being one of the forces that is driving the economy ahead. And clearly, there's room for more, even if we have to be cautious. And then business is, again, doing very well. We have the expectation to grow above nominal GDP growth, taking into account that some of this growth is also coming from our international branches where given our very small position, we also -- we tend to find good investment opportunities with great risk profiles that contribute positively to our return on equity. So that's the sense. Certainly, in this quarter, no change in the strategy and more momentum than we would have expected given how intense in events the quarter was.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#8

Max, I will touch on NII. Well, from here, we are expecting upside every quarter, I would say. We expect sequential positive evolution on NII quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year I have to say for the foreseeable future. So that goes into '26, '27 and also 28, honestly. So what is the combination of everything we have been talking about in the past. So it's, well, better rates in this case, no longer rate cuts priced as it was the case earlier in the year. Volumes, Gonzalo was commenting our views in terms of lending, but also on deposits is pretty a bit our view. And what was a headwind, which was this negative repricing that we still have that negative impact in the first quarter of this year, that is ending. It's ending already the second quarter. And as a consequence, what was a headwind becomes even a tailwind, so you should expect consecutive quarter-on-quarter positive evolution on NII. There is upside to 27% with current market rates. So better rates is always a positive for us. We are guiding you with some sensitivities that the first year sensitivity is low because actually, the loan book is not repricing that much during the first year, but you have the full impact of high rates in the second year, which actually coincides pretty much with 2027. The point is that -- I would like to flag is that the yield curve is not moving parallel. So there is a clear flattening of the yield growth in the sense that short-term rates are moving up much more than long-term rates. If you look at short-term rates year-to-date, maybe implicit for '27, maybe by depending on the moment you look at it by like 40 basis points, 50 basis points, but implicit rate for '29 or, let's say, almost flat versus year-end. So it's not a parallel move. So the sensitivity in that case is slightly lower than what we are guiding because we are guiding for a parallel move. But in any case, the net impact is a positive one. So let's see how everything settles. It's important today also the value in age from DCB in that sense and see at the end of the day, what central banks and doing because what is being placed by the market is that central banks act, raise rates, contain inflation. As a result of that, long-term rates are not moving that much. So all that is having an impact. And finally, although we are really a bit on volumes and on lending, we have to see how the uncertainty in the Middle East ends impacting overall. So it's too early for us to give new guidance for 2027. But in any case, what I can confirm is that there is upside at current levels and more into 2028, if I have to say, because we start having already quite a good data or consensus data for '28, and on that front in '28, where we see a clear upside to current consensus. That is from my side. Thank you, Max.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#9

Thank you, Mak. Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#10

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano of Morgan Stanley.

Alvaro de Tejada

Analysts
#11

Maybe a couple of follow-ups really. Just on having on the hedging, while we're while you're on the subject, you flagged that 7.5% entity is still there, and I get that it's not a parallel movement. But if you look at the curves, there's 2, 3 hikes priced in depending on the day, which may or may not end up happening. So I kind of wonder why not sort of be a bit more sort of aggressive locking some of that curve in considering your rate is quite high versus historical standards. It looks like you're hedged I mean I see that you've increased the swap book, but one or more? And is this something to do with the stickiness of the deposit growth you've seen lately. So sort of comments around how much of that probe you can lock in and when you're not locking it in. And then the other question is more maybe for one the general environment. I know your comments around sort of some ceasing of the growth in mortgages but it's more broadly, I don't think anybody is worried about asset quality in Spain given the war, but maybe activity levels could slow down. At what point do you think -- are you worried sentiment might deteriorate in some of the strong growth in corporate and international might slow down? Or if at one point you might decide to slow down the growth of uncertcontinues. Just color on that would be much appreciated.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#12

Thank you, Alvaro. Maybe, Javier, do you want to.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#13

Okay. Well, on hedging precise, what we have tried to do this quarter, as I was saying, to some extent, from loading hedging, but otherwise what had been done further down the road. We front-loaded it to by the end of March when precisely ECB was expected, what was priced by the market, what was the ECB was expecting to price up to 3, 4x. To what extent we can do even more is always an open question and intense debate in the ALCO committee. Keep in mind that while managing the sensitivity of a bank, you have to make always an assumption on which is going to be the behavior of customer deposits, okay? . And well, although we have our models and back tested and so on, there is always a certain degree that if this time, something can be different. So what I mean by that is that it's extremely difficult to be fully hedged. So if a bank says that is fully hedged, well, you never know. So -- we have a natural tendency to keep positive sensitivity to rates, just in case models are not exactly accurate. And well, we will always retain a certain degree of positive sensitivity, as I say. But it's always a debate Alvaro. So we think that we have done a lot this quarter and let's see how things evolve. Eventually, when the yield curve started to price one rate hike, it looked like it could be really a nice level, then you have 4 hikes prices. So it's always a little bit tricky in terms of market timing. But it's always we are thinking all the time about.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#14

Yes, Alvaro. On the second point, obviously, we do not have the crystal ball at some point consumer confidence and business confidence may suffer as a result of what's going on in the world. That's a possibility. I would say if we move to a scenario in which consumer confidence is weaker, which has not happened and could have happened, but it has not happened yet, clearly. Then we actually could see an increase in the savings rate. And then that is not going to be necessarily negative for P&L. So some impact the current situation has to have. But the fact that so far, we've seen really none and also the fact that over the last few years, we've been constantly surprised by the strength of the economy, despite that, obviously, the more significant event was the Ukraine invasion, and we actually, in Spain did very well, gives us some confidence. What's happening now in the electricity market in Spain is quite striking. If you look at the pool prices in March, you have Spain, Portugal and Finland at the very bottom and then sort of most of Continental European central economies, prices that are more than double the level in Spain. Obviously, also this depends on wind, sun hours, all that. But even if you look at the extended periods, you see there is a very strong difference and population continues to grow. I say it's not easy to break this cycle. We have the risk. If we look at 2, 3, 4 years that the cycle curly, sort of looses force and then we gradually convert to lower levels in GDP. But when you look at the next 12 months, Marine, a very serious environment outside, I think we're pretty confident. In fact, when you look at our expectation for this 3-year period where we moved the 4% growth in business volume to 6%, given how well the 2025 and now the first quarter of 2026, have gone really -- there's an implicit slowing down of business volume growth in our target, and in the current scenario, that can make sense for us intuitively to say, well, all this cannot be positive. But then when we look at the data quarter-after-quarter, we see that things are moving in the right direction. I still feel that we may have a few months ahead of us that will be tough. The situation for oil in the strait and how lengthy is likely to be for the market to be normalized, even if there is a satisfactory agreement and that's not clear that there will be one in -- at least in the short term. So I think we are seeing some at least for some months, complex period. The markets are kind of seen through it, which is very helpful for AUM and commissions and all that, and obviously also for new inflows. We've seen our clients being very calm about events and knowing that will happen with the pandemic, what happened with Ukraine, what happen with the tariffs, that sort of running away from the market that the wrong time is not a good thing to do. So I think we're likely to be quite resilient even if there is a kind of more adverse scenario. What I was saying that Bank of Spain is bringing now growth to 2% GDP in an adverse scenario. I think that we may have some impact, but we would still be meeting our 6% guidance or revised guidance for this 3-year period. Having said that, again, I started where -- I go back to where I started, we don't have a crystal ball, we'll have to adapt a stat events suggest something different. And from an asset quality perspective, we're seeing no pressure. And again, with the low level of leverage of our clients, and the relative insulation from what's going on, we're not expecting issues there. We are obviously now seeing NPLs falling much faster than what we expected. And April is no different. No, I wouldn't see a different second quarter on that front. So we'll see, but it looks pretty good.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#15

Thank you, Alvaro. Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#16

The next question comes from Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas.

Ignacio Ulargui

Analysts
#17

I have 2 questions, if I may. I mean 1 is on the post and deposit cost. So when you look to the deposits, I have seen a very good growth in the quarter. seasonally Q-on-Q, you have grown noninterest-bearing deposits by around 1%, which I think is quite supportive. If you can elaborate a bit on what is behind that strategy so that we can just see that growth going forward. So I think it's crucial to the NII performance. And linked that, just wanted to get a bit of a trend if you have found any change in deposit in customer behavior in terms of deposit costs that they are looking to go up again whether people is becoming more price sensitive on deposits? And then one clarification and being mindful that this a very volatile line, but I saw gain losses in the social assets in the quarter look into the quarterly report, it comes from real estate asset disposals. I mean how should we think about this line going forward?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#18

Thank you, Naciho. I'll just make a few comments and let Javier continue. But I will start with the latter and reading some of the comments this morning from the analyst community kind of typical allocates a bit, but it's low quality because revenues or NII offset by fees, rabies, et cetera. on the business low quality, which I perfectly understand that's the usual analysis that one would do. This particular line is associated to our disposals of real estate assets. It's not a transaction or a big transaction, is very granular, and it is a consequence of a very strong real estate market, which, given the imbalance between supply and the money is not going to change. . So you are seeing here a line that traditionally resulted in bad news is going to be consistently resulting in moderate, but good news, positive line. So when one look at the quality versus low-quality bit, obviously, the low quality is usual because it's a one-off. This is below the line, but this is not a one-off. We're going to be having positive results quarter after quarter, I would say, with maybe some ups and downs. But clearly, results that are positive from real estate sales margin that we had this quarter was around 40%. It's not that we're selling just a bit above the market prices in our box, it's a very significant change in the real estate market dynamics. So this is, to me, a high-quality good news because this is not going to be a volatile negative line that is occasionally positive, but it's going to be positive in a consistent manner. So I wanted to make that comment because it's -- I think it's relevant, very relevant question and the point. In terms of deposits, there's not much change, and we're very happy with our performance, I would say. But Javier, I'm sure you would be able to elaborate much better.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#19

Indeed, so yes, we are happy and the mix also. And the remarkable precisely not just what you said, the good performance of noninterest-bearing deposits. What is behind that is more of the same, actually. So we are operating in a growing market. So we are gaining clients. So we are gaining payrolls. Employment is growing. So our market share is huge in the payroll market, so it's basically more of the same, more operational balances. Deposits are growing because also the economy is growing. So in nominal GDP terms, so deposits should be growing in line with that. So -- and we are being able to capture that part of the business. So as you saw in the presentation, year-on-year, noninterest bearing up by 6%. We think that this trend, this is the direction of travel. I will not pre-commit with specific figures here, but it's clear that we are expecting the noninterest-bearing part to keep growing steadily. You know that the second quarter is a very important quarter with a strong positive seasonality. We expect that this year will be the same. So we have big expectations on that front also. So hence, for the third and fourth quarter, you will have the retained balances from those big inflows we have usually during the second quarter. On the interest-bearing part, you can see that the deposit, say, retail time deposits because time deposits are only retail. You know that basically SMEs and corporates, the interest bearing deposits are current accounts that are indexed almost a major part to the overnight rate with a margin but to the overnight rate. Hence, no impact so far from higher market rates because this is linked to the overnight and the overnight has not moved at all. On time deposits for retail, it is true that, let's say, 12-month rates are already higher. So we may have some slight increase on that part. Remember that last quarter, Matthias gave you a guidance for our -- the cost of our deposits in the mid 40s. So obviously, with higher rate, maybe we are for sure if those hikes crystallize, we will have a higher cost of deposits, but obviously, we'll be compensated or more than compensated for sure on the asset side. But the situation is calm, I have to say. So no tensions at all. Everyone is being very rational. So no tensions on any single player. So we're happy with the way we are managing that. So there is a new cycle ahead. So we thought that, that would take more time. But now we are facing a new rate cycle. And our assumption is that the performance of our deposit base is going to be in line with the performance we had in the previous cycle. And those are the assumptions we are making in terms of deposit EBITDA, et cetera, back to all that discussion. So this is how we are confronting this new situation.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#20

Thank you, Nacho. Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#21

Next question comes from Sofie Peterzens with Goldman Sachs. .

Unknown Analyst

Analysts
#22

Here is Sofie from Golden Sachs. So my first question would be how we should think about kind of cost growth beyond 2026 under there might be some wage negotiations and inflation is picking up. So how do you think about like give salary growth beyond 26 in 27 and 28. And then my second question is that when I look on Slide 30, I see that the international branches start to be a quite meaningful part of your loan book, almost 10% and growth there is very high 27% year-on-year. Could you just talk us through but international CIB branches include, in which countries are you present? And how do you see growth in this division going forward?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#23

Thank you. Thank you, Sofie. In terms of your first question, you're right that obviously, inflation has become now a number that is obviously going to go up in the short term. It's not clear up to what level. I guess that's what ECB and many others are trying to second guess. Future markets indicate 3.2% on average for the next 2 years. We'll see because, obviously, also this was 2.8% a week ago, and the but there is obviously a different inflation rate that to what extent this sort of leads into wage inflation or not, is precisely where the ECB, as you know, is trying to avoid. Spain has just for some years, reduced the indexation of wages to inflation is less common. The wage growth, in fact, has moderated recently. Currently, it's around 2.7%. But there is obviously here uncertainty, and I think it's very early to say how negotiations that for us will start next year, most likely affecting 2027 and onwards will evolve. It's also something that, typically, we've maintained for ourselves for obvious reasons. But you're right to point that the same happened at the time of Ukraine, the nation is going to have some impact generally for companies, corporates, financial institutions, everyone, and we'll have to see how that develops. And then on CIB, we have basically 4 very large markets in which we operate in Europe is France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. with 4 large branches in Paris, Milan, Frankfurt and London. Then we have a significant and fairly attractive presence in Warsaw in Poland. In fact, we started earlier. All in all, we now have outstanding that are over EUR 35 billion currently. It is true that it's growing. It has grown fast because we basically started out 12 years ago, with converting -- we have rep offices and we start converting them into branches. We decided that we will do it very slowly because my experience is that when people expand outside of the markets, they tend to run risks that they're just not fully aware of. And this has been the result again of 12 years as branches and then obviously gradually in different countries. The exposure is almost all of its investment grade. So we have refrained from going down the investment rating spector because we obviously feel that we do not have the necessary sort of investment focus to long-term competing SMEs and other types of high-yield market in other countries. But most of the clients we're banking with our clients that we knew because they were banking with us in Spain because they have subsidiaries in Spain or because they are subsidiaries of Spanish company. So this is something that has been actually very low risk for us. NPL is -- NPLs have been consistently at near 0. And what we have now is a clear mandate is not to necessarily grow the business, but to continue to increase the profitability of the business. It's already obviously double digit in terms of return on tangible equity and adding to what we do, but we're expanding the number of products and services to this corporation. Still, we are the sixth largest bank in Europe by market cap, and people call on us. And when we call them someone, they open the door because we are on a relative basis so small, and we have this great sort of funding franchise, we actually become competitive and very quickly. And hence, this is a nice sort of complement our business longer term, you'll see. But obviously, we continue to move towards the European Union. In reality, the same where we say we're not seeing value on acquisitions, we see clear value in being a corporate bank in the Eurozone given our size and our opportunities. And the way to do this rather to make by making an acquisition one day, we think has been building our business gradually organically without any rush, but sustainably. And that's what we do. We're very happy, and we'll keep -- I think we'll keep providing good news on this front. But again, the emphasis is not growing at all costs, the emphasis is continue to build reasonable be completely connected with our CIB franchise. So this -- when we see -- we talk about Germany, to me, it's part of business where there's a branch in Madrid and Barcelona, and Germany and Milan and Frankfurt -- or sorry, Frankfurt and Paris. This is part of the same business and managed in that way.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#24

Thank you, Sofie. Operator, the next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#25

The next question comes from Miruna Chirea of Jefferies.

Miruna Chirea

Analysts
#26

First, I had one on the outlook for deposits in Spain, and I appreciate your comments that the situation in Iran has a very limited direct impact on the Iberian economies, given the higher uncertainty backdrop we are in, do you think there is upside to deposit growth as households increased their savings rate in Spain? And another 1 related to this, if we are in the situation in which we do get hike from the ECB, what would be your best guess of deposit Vidas on any upcoming hikes? And then just a quick follow-up on mortgages. Are there any metrics that maybe you could share with us just to get a better sense of how much insurance, mutual funds and so you are doing on to your new mortgage customers I think 1 of your peers was reporting, for example, the average number of customers per -- the average number of products per customers. So anything along those lines, I think, would be helpful.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#27

Thank you. I'll -- I'd say on the latter point, the -- generally, what we offer our clients is up to 1% of the rebates in their mortgage rates depending on the products that we buy from us. And this is contractual. So if at some point they cancel then the rate, the rate goes up. So I think that's something that is working very well for us, now -- not the same, I think, ability for some others to compete in this market. But obviously, I'll let Javier elaborate on this and the other questions.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#28

Well, just -- well on that one. You saw our protection insurance performance, up by more than 13% year-on-year. So on that front, obviously, the new mortgage origination, new mortgage production is having a positive impact for sure. So we have commented that. Maybe we can be more specific on, but more than also how many products per client, this is not like because on the selling process, we don't set specific targets for that. So at the end of the day, it's more about building the relationship with the client and over time, we get the penetration. Remember back when we were talking about revenue synergies coming from former Banca clients that were not that engaged on protection or wealth management, et cetera. So it's more a gradual process. So it's not like saying, okay, mortgage automatically results into cross-selling, which it is because as Gonzalo was saying, there is a rebate on yields from that. But then you establish a relationship and beyond the initial rebate on the yield, you start building that relationship and getting more traction. So what this is -- this is the way we work. And everything starts from the -- not on the mortgage many times, but on the payroll being for us, the anchor product, the way we have to acquire the client. Then from there, we get the mortgage, we get the consumer loan, we get the protection services, et cetera. But to your point on deposits, if there is upside in case of increased uncertainty, Well, what we don't see is a transfer from AUMs to deposits. What happens usually is that those clients that look for, let's say, a lower risk profile on their portfolios. What they do is move from, let's say, equities to money markets, et cetera, but not to deposits because you know that in Spain, if you convert into cash your AUMs, you have to pay taxes for any unrealized profit you have done since the very beginning. So while you move your asset allocation within the AUM universe, then you don't pay those taxes for unrealized profit. So we don't see an upside from that. In case every time we have had strong market impacts. What has happened is that we faced some slowdown of inflows. And during that short period of time, we may have some upside or uptick in terms of deposits. But honestly, not that material. And once things tend to normalize, everything settles. So I will not say that we are not considering actually on our forecast any upside on deposits coming from that angle you mentioned. In terms of deposit EBITDA, I answered to a previous question that we are working with the same assumptions because it's the most recent back testing you can conduct of the last rate cycle. And while we are considering deposit betas in the very low 20s. So that's basically what is behind our assumptions. And every time may be different, maybe even better than that or who knows? But as a starting point and as a way to calculate our sensitivities back to a previous answer to Alvaro is this deposit EBITDA. Thank you, Mr. Miruna.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#29

Yes. And if I -- Miruna, sorry, because as Javier was answering, I realized you had asked about these sort of products per client and just trying to make some comparison on my experience honors from the outside and then both from the inside. These numbers are not really easy to compare. When we look at how banks define clients, there's a very different definition because not everybody that has an account with us is a client, they need to meet certain minimum activity or balance levels. And then similar thing applies to what's a product. And there's -- so then you can get into a product per client that is very different. So if you compare across institutions. We have more emphasis on looking at when we know what do we sell, we sell payrolls and obviously, our associated payroll is a deposit and activity, where we sell is payments, cards, what we sell is insurance and finance, and then -- when you look at the market shares that we have in these products, and you see market share in insurance that is -- if it's life risk is you need to add the next 5 or 6 to get to our level altogether -- to get to our level. If it is health, we're by far the leader. And when you look at the bank assurers, we are much ahead in auto, in household across everything. So that obviously means that we're cross-selling more to clients that our products per client are clearly above the average of our peers. But when you look at numbers, it's very arbitrary how you define the two. So that's why we don't use it that actively for external purposes even if, obviously, we keep tracking try our own definition.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#30

Thank you, Miruna. Operator your next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#31

The next question comes from Marta Sánchez Romero with JPMorgan.

Marta Sánchez Romero

Analysts
#32

My first question is a follow-up on deposits. So growth is running 5% year-on-year, which is in line with your guidance, but it's below the 6% we saw for the system as of February, and it's behind what we've seen for your large domestic competitors. Could you break down that performance across retail, corporate and public sector and where specifically do you think you're losing ground? Related to this, on payrolls, your market share looks stable year-on-year, but 1 major competitor has launch an aggressive mass market campaign. Are you seeing any early pressure on new payroll captures? And my second question is on costs. We've seen a few banks in Spain launching voluntary redundancy schemes. Is that something you contemplate? One of your peers today was mentioning a 3-year payback, where do you think yours would be today?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#33

Thank you, Marta. On the second point, no, we're not contemplating voluntary scheme. We're adding people to our network, and we feel that we're going to keep growing the business and I would not comment on payback book something that is not on the cards. On the deposit we may have to sort of double check the numbers because I think we certainly see in terms of payrolls, gaining market share, not just not maintaining, gaining market share. The year-on-year for us is 22 basis points. We have a pretty good sense. Obviously, the market has been very competitive now for some years. There was some time when only a couple of institutions during the crisis were pushing for payrolls because rates were negative and that had a cost by itself. But we knew that it was an anchor product for many other things, and that's why we have the 36% market share that we have today. A lot of this, I have to say, is also associated with our capillarity, our retail presence. We have 4,200 points of sale in Spain, and that makes a big difference. I know that's often you look -- not you personally, but the market looks at it as could we operate with fewer branches. And we always said we could, but it wouldn't make sense because the branches are very profitable. My experience from talking to some of the large U.S. banks, this is a huge difference in capturing payrolls when you have a very large retail presence, you capture more and you capture sort of noninterest-bearing deposits. And that is clearly what's happening to us. And even if our peers are very good peers and competitors, they have less than half the branches than we do. And that makes a big difference. Obviously, at the same time, we have top of mind in terms of brand awareness for many people that come into Spain, actually, we are a natural bank to go. So there are many reasons we were doing well. And I think we'll continue to do well. Obviously, market is going to be competitive, and we'll make our job tough. And -- but it is tough today. I am not particularly concerned about that one. But our deposit evolution has been pretty. I think, Javier.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#34

Indeed, Marta, well, I think that the key is the mix between interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing. And a previous question is what I answered. So noninterest bearing up by 6% year-on-year, every single quarter in the last 12 months, 4 quarters. And well, I mentioned, I think, in the presentation that we have had some outflows from the public sector this first quarter of the year. But basically, because it's always more volatile, and they have their own schedule in terms of what they collect from taxes, whatever payment investment. So we'll not read too much, honestly, to growing deposits paying 12-month rate or the overnight rate is very easy. The key is to grow with the adequate mix, which is, I think that's what we are doing. But honestly, we don't think that we have any weakness on that front. So we are quite a bit on future evolution. The situation is very calm we are rolling over our time deposits at a very nice yield versus market rates. So I'm not seeing much competitive pressure, honestly. So everything is very clear for us, no problems.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#35

And you should know, Marta, and with wholesale clients, obviously, we tend to be the bank that not -- or let's put it another way. We are not the bank that pays most for deposits because we have liquidity when we're talking about wholesale, our liquidity situation, this affects, particularly the public sector, which is the reason why you may see a difference this quarter the numbers we have for private sector deposits and for non-operated deposits indicate very good absolute and relative performance versus others. And obviously, there's -- you need to see it in a sustained basis. But we see no reason why that would change going forward. .

Marta Noguer

Executives
#36

Thank you, Marta. Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#37

The next question comes from Francisco Riquel with Alantra. .

Francisco Riquel

Analysts
#38

Yes,. My first question is on revenues from services, which are growing 7.5% in the Q1. And I wonder if you see upside risk to the mid-single-digit growth guidance. You have commented on Wealth Management market impacts recovered already era, steady inflows. Insurance also growing double-digit banking fees to Brazilian. So you can please elaborate on this revenues from services and the guidance? And my second question is on the tweak to the ROTE guidance that I understand all the core headlines remain unchanged. So it should be taxes. So if you can please comment on the tax rate, DTA write-ups and how sustainable is that going forward?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#39

Okay. Paco, I think my second point, it's not just success. One of the lines that I mentioned before was precisely results on real estate sales, we have clearly indicated better numbers than what we had anticipated. And I think given the turn in the real estate market, this is pretty sustainable. But Javier, please .

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#40

Just back services, just good performance. And as I was mentioning during the presentation, 70% of the revenues coming from wealth protection and CIB, and this is growing more than 12% year-on-year. So really happy to see that. Well, AUMs with a strong recovery in April, we are back to a situation that is more normalized with the uncertainty that all of us we know on that front on markets, but quite resilient so far. So our guidance here is to expect to be somewhere between mid- and high single-digit growth on that line. skewed towards the higher end if markets performed, I would say, on a stable manner. So I think that that's the guidance. No, we are expecting in flows in line with last year. So that's the summary. In terms of protection, we are doing pretty well. I said before also that it was mainly on Life & Health, good cross-selling coming from new mortgage origination. I think that on that front, we may be between high single digits and even double digit. But what -- let's see, this is -- the old news is that here, we don't depend much on market. Actually, nothing. And we are quite a bit on that P&L line. Volumes are doing pretty well. and where we have been gaining traction since several quarters, as you know. And then well, banking fees, it's always the same story. And also it's about the deflationary pressure, generally speaking, on low added value fees. We started with maintenance fees. Now you have pressure also on transfer. You have instant transfers that have to be made at a low -- with a low fee, like a normal transfer previously. So all that is having a kind of deflationary pressure, that is being, to some extent, compensated by better volumes, but the pressure in terms of margins is still there. But the good news is that 70% of that pool of service revenues is growing over double digit. And hence, we are doing pretty well. So that's a message as always, a bit on AUMs and wealth and protection and CIB being more and more stable and recurrent what has been commented before to a previous question about our international branches also starting to this over time to this steady pace of revenues fee revenues from CIB also as from, let's say, the initial lending, you start to obtain additional business. So that's the story. If there is there upside or not maybe, but it's too early to give you formal guidance honestly Paco, considering all the uncertainties we still face in the year, mainly coming from the market evolution.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#41

Thank you, Paco. Operator, the next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#42

The next question comes from Andrea Filtri with Mediobanca.

Andrea Filtri

Analysts
#43

I'm actually following up from Paco. What is driving the ROT upgrade? Is it higher profit or lower tangible equity and it's the higher profit, if you could detail a bit more. And can you guide a bit more accurately on tax rate expected for 2026.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#44

Yes. Sorry because Paco, I missed the answer on taxes. We have -- and well, as basically Andrea is part of your question also. So we -- the write-up on -- from DTAs has been EUR 135 million. And we think that this figure can be the max you can expect every quarter. So it's going to be higher than last year. So you are right. Why? Because -- well, I made also a comment about 2028 and AI, that where we see upside -- clear upside to consensus. We are incorporating to our recovery model on DTAs, the long-term projections for the bank, and those are becoming better and better. So the recovery pace off-balance sheet DTAs increases. So this is why we have some step up on that from that front. So I think that million is what you can expect Max. It can be a little bit below that some quarters, but in any case, it's going to be higher than last year. And as for the return on tangible equity question, the improvement is -- well, Gonzalo mentioned the, let's say, gains and losses and the real estate behind that, you have taxes, we have quite a good feeling in terms of cost of risk, and we see volumes doing well. So to some extent, it's not only specifically some lines. But the general feeling that everything is doing fine and maybe up say here and there. And as a consequence, it's why we upgrade our ROE to over 18%. Thank you.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#45

Thank you, Andrea. Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator
#46

The next question comes from Cecilia Romero with Barclays.

Cecilia Romero Reyes

Analysts
#47

I have 3 follow-ups. First, on NII sensitivity. You were saying that given flattening of the year curve and Cito parallel move of the curve could be lower than what you guided? And I understand your sensitivity is still 7.5% a year to -- but wouldn't you also see now better upside on your outcome maturities given that government bond yields are higher versus last year-end. The second one is cost. You were mentioning that renegotiation of wages, if the environment continues to be what is live today in 2027 could bring some more cost inflation driven the backdrop. You had also mentioned to us in the past that your IT and artificial intelligence investments of the last year will start having a positive impact on efficiency from 2027. So wouldn't you say that there are levers to compensate for either cost pressure? And then finally, on provisions. If things holding up very well and growth expectations still look resilient, but obviously, the situation is very fluid. At least Spain [indiscernible] narrow to the period. Could you outline how will it flow through your provisioning models? How quickly will impact provisioning and how severe duration will need to be before you reconsider your cost of risk target of less than 25 basis points on average, also considering that you have an assigned collective provisions of around EUR 300 million.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#48

Thank you, Cecilia. I'm sorry, we have to go fast because we'll be running out of time on wise. But basically, on costs, you're right that we expect savings associated to the investments that we are making. So of course, there are levers. We'll have to eventually look at how the whole thing adds up, but certainly, we will be doing those and traditional sort of efficiencies to offset other inflation and cost pressures that we are -- we may have. Absolutely.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#49

Well, on NII sensitivity, yes, long-term rates have also moved up. And obviously, we are taking advantage of that in terms of ALCO management but by a lesser extent than short-term rates. So short-term rates have moved like 40, 50 basis points. Long-term rates have moved by 10 or less than 20. So this is why the sensitivity is lower because on -- when you model the sensitivity, the new production at fixed rate being mortgages or ALCO is not having the same positive impact in the future than what is priced at the short term of the yield curve. And this is why you don't benefit fully from that increase in the yield curve because this is part of the new production that is having a lower positive impact. And this is why the sensitivity is a little bit smaller, but it's not much. So in any case, it's a net positive for the bank for sure. In terms of IFRS 9 models, we have to make a decision on that. In any case, the worst scenario is massively better than the scenario that we are managing for this Middle East situation. Maybe we have some changes in terms of weightings. We have to make a decision on that. Obviously, the guidance we have given to you already considering any potential change we can do. Keep in mind also that the new inputs for the model is not only GDP, it's also recent history of performance, which is extremely positive. And there is another leg that is also very important, which is the performance of the real estate market. In terms of the impact that this has on value of collateral and as a consequence on provisions. And the real estate market is also doing very well. I say that because it's not only one thing. It's history, it's real estate and obviously, macro that we have to -- in the next few weeks, we have to make a decision. But in any case, in any of the scenarios that we are thinking out our guidance is under any kind of pressure. Thank you.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#50

Thank you, Cecilia. Next question, operator, please.

Operator

Operator
#51

The next question comes from Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research.

Britta Schmidt

Analysts
#52

I just wanted to follow up on your 2028 outlook. You said you see clear upside to the consensus, which already bakes in 6% growth versus 2027. And we've just discussed the curve outlook and for 2028, the short-term rates don't look that different from previous assumptions. So could you let us know what is driving your more positive view what is driving your more positive view versus consensus, but probably also on plan, given your comments regarding the deferred taxes carryforwards.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#53

Well, it's simple. It's more of the same. So it's the compounded effect of volumes and our internal assumptions on volumes and well, on lending, but also on deposits, not interest-bearing deposits. And remember that we constantly have the tailwind from Alco maturities that are going to be rolled over at a better yield, and this is constantly adding. Remember that from '26 and trying to put things simple because you can make this very complex, but I think that the best way to simplify is we have combined hedges and fixed income, 26 million, 27 million and EUR 28 billion that are maturing and are being rolled over. The average yield of those EUR 28 billion is 0.55%. This is going to be rolled over at rates, let's say, between 2.5% and 3%. So the annualized impact of that rollover exceeds EUR 100 million annualized. So this is not happening in day 1, what I mean that by 2028, you are going to have the full impact of that. And then you still have the impact from maturities that you have in 2028. You have something in this quarter, a lot of detailed formation. So that constant tailwind from legacy ALCO is going to be there. And that's why according to our internal projections and the assumptions we are making on deposit betas that I pointed previously, we see a clear upside to the current consensus. So that's our -- my message.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#54

Thank you, Britta. Operator, next question pleas.

Operator

Operator
#55

The next question comes from Borja Ramirez with Citi.

Borja Ramirez Segura

Analysts
#56

I have two, please. Firstly, a follow-up on deposits. It's great to see the decline in cost of deposit on the strong deposit growth. And this despite some digitals that are showing increased focus on digital account deposits I would like to ask if it's related to your better digital offering, can elaborate...

Marta Noguer

Executives
#57

Borja, we are not hear you properly. So we cannot understand your question. I think it's something about deposits, but...

Borja Ramirez Segura

Analysts
#58

Can you hear better now?

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#59

A lot of on resonance don't know what it is.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#60

Hello. Well...

Borja Ramirez Segura

Analysts
#61

Can you hear better now?

Marta Noguer

Executives
#62

A littble bit better, yes. let's try.

Borja Ramirez Segura

Analysts
#63

I believe. So Basically, what are the competitive percentages of imaging compared to the other new bases? I think you're showing very strong in deposit...

Marta Noguer

Executives
#64

Sorry.

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#65

[Foreign Language]

Marta Noguer

Executives
#66

So we are talking about the advantage if we understand the advantages we have versus other neo banks in terms of deposits, is that correct?

Borja Ramirez Segura

Analysts
#67

Yes. That's correct.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#68

Well, if I may, I think, imagin is very different from new banks because trying to match or do better in terms of the digital offering that it has, but it combines it with a real bank behind. And we find that our customers love the fact that even if they do not ever visit a branch, every knows that imagin is part of CaixaBank that obviously is a very strong message in terms of how confident you are to trust your money to someone else. . And they also know that through imagine they can get a full banking offering so that you can have reminding us your primary bank and don't need anything else. That's not typically what you see with the other neo banks and particularly, even if you can, you kind of not necessarily trust the same sort of solvency and stability and I'm confident that a brand name like CaixaBank brings. But then obviously, having the ability to our imagin clients can going to a branch can chat with someone. The top level have relationship agents. And when we call them, they love it, even if they don't use it. And at some point, the we do use it. And then obviously, we think we're a fresh offering. We have obviously the fact that we know very well the market. We can go to universities and other places where we can actually have the right employee support and school university, et cetera, to gain clients. So it's -- and then very often, it's a parent company -- sorry, no parent company, the parent that will come to the branch, and we want the son or daughter to open an account or they did open it when they were kids and they want to activate it. So we're a kind of family bank every client of margin CaixaBank has someone that is a target for imagin. They are happy we'll ask clients for how about your sons and daughters, do they have a bank account or bring them in, we can facilitate things. Then they will operate online, but let's not forget that we have this 4,200 points of service and they are great tools to acquire clients in margin as well.

Marta Noguer

Executives
#69

Okay. Thank you, Borja. That's all we have time for today. So thank you all for joining us in another quarter, and have a wonderful long weekend, everybody. Thank you.

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche

Executives
#70

Thank you very much. .

Javier Pano Riera

Executives
#71

Bye-bye.

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to CaixaBank, S.A. earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.