Camlin Fine Sciences Limited (532834) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 10, 2020

BSE Limited IN Materials Chemicals earnings 56 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 FY '20 Earnings Conference Call of Camlin Fine Sciences hosted by Ambit Capital. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Prasenjit Bhuiya from Ambit Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Prasenjit Bhuiya;Ambit Capital;Associate

analyst
#2

Thank you, Margaret. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Ambit Capital, we welcome you to the 3Q FY 2020 Earnings Call of Camlin Fine Sciences Limited. We have with us today, Mr. Ashish Dandekar, Managing Director; Mr. Nirmal Momaya, Director; and Mr. Santosh Parab, Chief Financial Officer of the company. Now I hand over the call to the management for their opening comments, post which we can take the floor open to questions and answers. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Ashish Dandekar

executive
#3

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to the earnings conference call for the Q3 FY '20 under review. I'm Ashish Dandekar, and as per our usual procedure, I will give you a brief view of the quarter, and then, Mr. Nirmal Momaya and Mr. Santosh Parab, our CFO, will answer questions. I hope you had an opportunity to look at the company's financial statements and earnings presentation, which have been circulated and uploaded on the company website and the stock exchanges. Firstly, let me run you through the key financial highlights for the quarter on a stand-alone basis. In Q3 FY '20, operational revenues increased by 2% on year-on-year basis to INR 153.2 crores. The adjusted EBITDA, after adjusting for foreign exchange fluctuation gain or loss, stood at around INR 14.1 crores in Q3 FY '20 as compared to INR 2.8 crores in Q3 of the previous quarter -- of the previous year in the same quarter, representing a growth of more than 400%. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 9.2% for Q3 '20 as against 1.87% in Q3 '19, which is a growth of 733 basis points. The net profit for Q3 FY '20 was reported at around INR 4.7 crore as against a loss of INR 5.3 crores in the previous -- in the same quarter of the previous year. On a 9 monthly basis, the stand-alone operational revenues stood at INR 440.2 crores, marking a growth of 17% on a year-on-year basis. The adjusted EBITDA stood at INR 45.7 crores, which signifies a growth of 125% on year-on-year basis. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at around 10.38%, which is a margin expansion of 497 bps on a Y-o-Y basis. The net profit for 9 months of financial year '20 stood at INR 14.2 crores, marking a growth of 75% on a Y-o-Y basis. Now coming to the consolidated performance for the quarter. In Q3 of FY '20, operational revenues increased by 13.5% year-on-year to INR 273.9 crores, and the adjusted EBITDA grew by 42% to INR 29.6 crore as against INR 20.8 crores in Q3 of the previous year. The adjusted EBITDA margins were around 10.81% for Q3 FY '20 as against 8.62% in Q3 '19, which marks an expansion of 219 bps on a Y-o-Y basis. The net profit for the quarter was reported at around INR 3.8 crores as against a loss of INR 8 million in Q3 FY '19. The consolidated performance on a 9 monthly basis has been quite remarkable. The operational revenues stood at INR 756.3 crores in 9 months of this year, which is a growth of 21% on a yearly basis. The adjusted EBITDA stood at INR 96.4 crores, marking a growth of 86% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at around 12.75%, which is a margin expansion of 443 basis points on a yearly basis. The net profit for 9 months of this year stood at INR 27.8 crores as against a loss of INR 3.3 crores last year. On a consolidated basis, I'm very happy to report that on a 9 monthly basis, there is -- on a 9 months, there is good improvement in the consolidated gross margins, which was mainly driven by a better product mix and yield improvements. However, on a Q -- quarter-on-quarter basis, stand-alone gross margins were slightly impacted on a -- due to a change in the product mix. Also, revenues from the Aroma Chemicals vertical was substantially higher in this quarter, driving the overall consolidated revenue growth. Giving you a very short brief on each subsidiary's operational performance for Q3, CFS North America, which is mainly based for the U.S. market, has shown significant improvement in revenues, which stood at INR 9.1 crores in Q3 of this year as against INR 3.2 crores in Q3 of last year, marking a growth of 184% on a year-on-year basis. Our Brazilian company, CFS Brazil, has seen good growth in revenues, which stood at INR 17.3 crores in quarter 3 this year as compared to INR 9.1 crores in quarter 3 last year, representing a growth of 90% on a year-on-year basis. CFS Europe reported revenues of INR 53.3 crores in Q3 this year versus INR 85.7 crores in Q3 of last year, marking a degrowth of 37.8% on a year-on-year basis. CFS Mexico reported revenues of INR 64.5 crores in Q3 this year as compared to INR 58.1 crores in Q3 of last year, which is a growth of 11% on a yearly basis. CFS Wanglong in China reported a revenue of 72.8% -- sorry, INR 72.8 crores in Q3, as against INR 62.9 crores in Q3 of last year, which shows a significant growth of 15.7% on a year-on-year basis. Of course, the operations in CFS Wanglong have been affected by the impact of the coronavirus. The situation there is still fluid. As on date -- the authorities have given an expected start date of 17th, but it is still fluid, so we will keep you updated as and when the situation develops. Lastly and importantly is the update on the Dahej plant. The mechanical completion has been successfully done in January of this year. All the utilities and electrical installation have been completed. The trial runs have commenced by end of January, and we expect commercial production before the end of this financial year. With this, I would like to open the call for question and answers. Thank you very much for being present.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Debanjana Chatterjee from HDFC Securities.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#5

So I wanted an update on your Tarapur plant. I missed the opening remarks. So any updates on your Tarapur? When is it going to reopen? And what is the -- what would be the impact on your top line on an annual basis?

Unknown Executive

executive
#6

So yes, the Tarapur plant has reopened on 2nd February. In all, totally, it was shut for less than 7 days. There is no significant impact on our annual figures based on this reopening.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#7

Okay. And second is, you have not paid dividends since past 3 years. Are you planning to pay dividends? Any...

Unknown Executive

executive
#8

That, the Board will decide at appropriate time.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#9

Okay. And you have a very low promoter holding of some 22%, if I'm not wrong. Your -- out of which, 10% is pledged. So any -- how are you...

Unknown Executive

executive
#10

We are working on de-pledging those promoter holdings.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#11

Okay. And how is it -- how are you planning to do the same?

Unknown Executive

executive
#12

In the next 12 months, we are working on a plan to de-pledge.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#13

In the next 12 months?

Unknown Executive

executive
#14

Yes.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#15

Okay. And can you give a product-wise breakup?

Unknown Executive

executive
#16

No, we cannot give product-wise breakup.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#17

Any peers of your -- I mean, like for products, peers and market share of the same?

Unknown Executive

executive
#18

No, no, we cannot give that. We cannot disclose that.

Operator

operator
#19

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Rohit Sinha from Emkay Global.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#20

Two -- I mean, a couple of questions. First off on Europe side, there is a significant decline in the revenue front. So what's the basic reason there? And next, there would be -- might be on the gross margin front, as you mentioned, that there is a change in product mix. So where it has shifted and how we're looking forward going ahead?

Unknown Executive

executive
#21

So the first, on CFS Europe, we had an annual maintenance shutdown in October for about 12 days, which did impact the production slightly. It's not a major impact, but the bigger impact is that we held stocks in the month of December in anticipation of -- to match the timing of Dahej start. So we were holding stock in December in Europe and did not ship all that stock out to India of both hydroquinone and catechol. So you will see the impact of sales going up in the next quarter because a large part of that stock has now been sold and the impact of that will be in Q4. So that was as far as CFS Europe was concerned. The second 1 on the gross margin. The product mix on a consolidated basis, we sold almost INR 80 crores of vanillin as opposed to, in the last quarter, it was INR 33 crores. So the idea was we were seeding the market to take market share in anticipation of our catechol, which is from Dahej, which would be a far more cost-efficient raw material. So from that perspective, to create end-use market, we got aggressive in the market in this quarter and established ourselves amongst the flavor/fragrance houses as well as across all geographies, established ourselves as the leading player in the vanillin market. And that was the reason why you saw that vanillin did not have -- we sold vanillin at a very low margin, that's how the impact on the EBITDA margin overall even though there has been a growth in turnover.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#22

Okay. So coming back to this Europe thing, as you said that in next quarter, we'll be back on revenue side. So whether we will be able to get that INR 85 crore, INR 87 crore kind of a run rate? Or will there be anything on the lower or higher side?

Unknown Executive

executive
#23

No, it will be more than what it was, because we have -- we sold the stock which was lying -- the December production. So typically, Europe used to, in the past, sell to India everything because we're consuming all the hydroquinone and catechol. There was no third-party sale. But now in this quarter, the third-party sale has started. And we are establishing ourselves in the market even to sell some hydroquinone and catechol in anticipation again of the plant starting with Dahej. So I think we should be able to maintain the run rate which has been there of about INR 80 crores in this quarter. Maybe some more also depending on whether we hold stock or we decide to liquidate all the stocks here.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#24

And in China front, still we are at EBITDA negative side or whether we have improved something on that?

Unknown Executive

executive
#25

So on a stand-alone basis, yes, it is negative, though we make a margin in the guaiacol from the India -- the supply we make from India. But on a stand-alone basis, in China, we are in the negative zone.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#26

Okay. And coming back to India side, I mean, if we look at the last 5, 6 quarters run rate, we have been significantly growing in double digit, whereas in this quarter, it's a slightly muted number. So going forward, where -- what kind of a run rate or improvement we can expect in the stand-alone India side? And which product would there be contributing to this growth?

Unknown Executive

executive
#27

Yes. So stand-alone India, the first and foremost, the biggest impact will be Dahej, which, in this quarter, we should commercialize Dahej. So from the next quarter, you will see the impact of Dahej. So the growth has been -- I mean, we've reached our full capacity utilization in all products, most products rather. So therefore, with the existing capacities, to increase turnover significantly is not possible. So the new additional capacity which is coming and which will give top line as well as health in the bottom line is Dahej. In Dahej, we are also in the process of setting up an ethyl vanillin facility and then MEHQ, which is a downstream of hydroquinone facility, which will be completed by Q3 of FY '21, which should again add significant top line and -- to the EBITDA margin. So in the near term, this is what we are trying to execute for FY '21.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#28

Okay. So earlier, I mean, we were largely of the view that with Dahej commissioning, there would be a significant improvement at the EBITDA level, but...

Unknown Executive

executive
#29

Right.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#30

Revenue side, we don't -- we were not expecting anything significant.

Unknown Executive

executive
#31

Right.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#32

So now since you are indicating on the revenue side also. So just wanted to check whether if it is possible to give a rough figure or idea how much additional revenue run rate we can expect from this Dahej facility.

Unknown Executive

executive
#33

So Dahej, ideally, we don't want to sell anything in the market. We want to consume the entire thing. Right? So on a consolidated basis, what happens is that today, what we make in Europe, we consume in India. Therefore, it doesn't add to the turnover. But on a stand-alone basis, in Europe, it is turnover, whereas in consolidated, it's not. So what will happen is, it'll only shift to India. So you will not see a significant growth in the top line because we [ want to ] consume all the hydroquinone and catechol because it's the same capacity as Europe. The entire thing we want to consume ourselves. We don't want to sell this product in the market.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#34

Okay, okay.

Unknown Executive

executive
#35

So the margin improvement will be significant. Turnover marginally will increase, but the big jump in turnover will come with new products and the new capacities that we are building out.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#36

And that would be in India or across the...

Unknown Executive

executive
#37

In India, in India. In India, stand-alone.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#38

Okay. And just last 1 question on the interest cost side, it has come down 25%, 30%, I guess. So is it all because of debt side? Or is there currency benefit also there?

Unknown Executive

executive
#39

No, no, no. It's not...

Unknown Executive

executive
#40

It's just not currency.

Unknown Executive

executive
#41

It's not -- the interest cost has not come down but under the new regulations, you have to -- the foreign exchange difference is -- on the debt that we have, is considered in the interest cost. So we got a benefit of almost INR 5 crores in this quarter. That's how the interest looks lower by INR 5 crores.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#42

So I mean, the change in -- the currency fluctuation benefit we can expect of this thing, INR 5 crore?

Unknown Executive

executive
#43

Yes.

Unknown Executive

executive
#44

Yes.

Operator

operator
#45

The next question is from the line of Aakash Sharma from Goldman Sachs.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#46

Yes. My first question is on the Tarapur plant which was shut down. Which products were manufactured in this plant? And what was the reason for the shutdown?

Unknown Executive

executive
#47

Yes. So the shutdown -- the first -- we produced TBHQ, BHA and ascorbyl palmitate, 3 products we make in Tarapur. The plant was shut down. You see, there were some accidents in the area in the month of January, where there was a large blowup of a boiler and an accident which I think several people were also -- several people died in that. So in the area, they came down on all the large users of steam and boilers and they give closure notices. It was actually -- in fact, it was -- we had an inspection done in October, and we had complied to all what they had asked for. And we had replied to them on the 18th of October, actually, the day after they had inspected, which was ignored, and then they issued this closure notice, of course, which then we got a restart very quickly because we went in, showed that we have complied with everything. So...

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#48

Sir, you just now mentioned that in Dahej, the MEHQ capacity is expected to commission in Q3 of FY 2021?

Unknown Executive

executive
#49

No, no, no. MEHQ, yes. Of MEHQ, yes.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#50

Yes. So this will be consumed captively or this will be sold in the market?

Unknown Executive

executive
#51

No, this will be sold in the market. MEHQ is a product we sell in the market.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#52

Okay. And what is this capacity? Like how much tonnes capacity is expected to...

Unknown Executive

executive
#53

So we are planning 2,500 metric ton capacity.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#54

Okay, okay. And as of now, we are not manufacturing MEHQ, is it?

Unknown Executive

executive
#55

No, we are. We are manufacturing it in third-party site. So -- but there is a constraint on how much we can produce because it's contract manufacturing in very limited capacity.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#56

So as of now, how much MEHQ we're selling in the market?

Unknown Executive

executive
#57

We've been selling about 40, 50 tonnes a month.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#58

40, 50 tonnes a month. Okay. Sir, this Dahej plant, I understand, as of now, only HQ and catechol will be commissioned, right?

Unknown Executive

executive
#59

Right. That's right.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#60

Which will be consumed captively, so there's no prebooking kind of thing which will happen, right?

Unknown Executive

executive
#61

Correct.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#62

Okay. And sir, in terms of new products, because as you have been expanding into new products since FY '13 till now, which is commendable. So what is the product pipeline looking for us from now over next 2, 3 years? Are we looking at any new products? And how is the R&D shaping up?

Unknown Executive

executive
#63

Yes. Okay. So we have actually 3 or 4 products which are in the pipeline. MEHQ is one of them. And with MEHQ, there's another product which is -- which goes into the pigment market. So it's called naphthol IRG, so -- which is another product that we are in the process of developing. It's out of R&D. Now we are in pilot scale. So that's going to be another product that we will launch in the market sometime next year. There is another product which we have already launched, but it's a very small market as yet. We're establishing ourselves in the market. It's called HQEE, it goes into polyurethane. And, of course, we have a product for the Lockheed Martin business. So these are the 4 new products that essentially we will be focusing on. And ethyl vanillin is the fifth one, which we'll be focusing on in the next 24 months.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#64

Got it. And sir, you previously mentioned that this quarter, we reported a sale of INR 80 crores for vanillin product. Is that correct?

Unknown Executive

executive
#65

That's right.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#66

Okay. And vanillin is a B2C product, right? Or is it a B2B?

Unknown Executive

executive
#67

No, it's a B2B. So typically, it is consumed mainly by the flavor and fragrance companies, as well as some direct users, chocolate makers, to bakeries, to ice cream makers. So it's a mix of either to flavor houses or to actual user of vanillin, which gets finally sold to a consumer. So it's B2B2C. We are in the B2B segment.

Operator

operator
#68

The next question is from the line of Surya Patra from PhillipCapital.

Surya Patra

analyst
#69

Congratulation for the best-ever revenue number that you have reported. My query is on -- first query is on, obviously, the vanilla thing. This quarter, the -- it seems that, okay, it is a kind of a conscious and planned way that you have expanded your vanilla base for this quarter. But at this utilization, with this revenue base, it seems that, okay, we would have possibly achieved more than 80% kind of utilization. So that [ means ] whether we have seen the profitability to the bottom line? Or when -- in what scenario that we should really see the profits for the China operation?

Unknown Executive

executive
#70

Yes. So in this quarter, the production we would have reached would have been about 70% or so. We've not yet reached -- I mean, we want -- we wanted to take it to 80%, 90%, but since the market conditions were not so -- the prices were not very profitable. So we said, let's do the best we can do in terms of pushing the production and assessing the plant, at the same time, not actually losing money on a gross level there. So the way to look at it is that as soon as our catechol from Dahej starts, our cost of guaiacol and cost of vanillin will come down considerably.

Surya Patra

analyst
#71

Okay.

Unknown Executive

executive
#72

And if we stress our plant -- and at that point, if you take it to 80% even with -- those prices have started correcting a bit, but even if the prices were where they were, we would be very profitable there.

Surya Patra

analyst
#73

Okay. Just an extension to that same point, sir, see, like all the 3 global leaders are operating from China. And all of them are having their large plant in China, including Camlin. So what is the scenario that it should emerge if the coronavirus thing that prolongs for, let's say, for a quarter even? Then in that scenario, what would be the like near-term impact that we should see, impact or benefit, in whichever manner? I don't know. Can you elaborate?

Unknown Executive

executive
#74

See, there are 2 plants of Solvay which are not in China. They're in U.S. and Europe, which is very good for the vanillin market because there is no impact in that. So always, the risk is if a product is not available, it gets replaced, right? So that is the bigger risk for us, was -- will vanillin get replaced by something else because of this crisis? No, it will not because there is enough vanillin available right now, okay. It's in short supply. Also, the province in which Solvay plant is has not been as badly impacted as the province in which our plant is. So we think that as soon as this embargoes, on 17th or 24th of February, whatever, whenever they do release that -- it's now -- they're saying 17th, that's the new directive, it should get into production. So there's no reason why they should be out of the market for more than maybe the months that they've been shut. As far as we are concerned, we've been shut from 22nd of January and we have, of course, a situation where we have migrant workers. So they need to be -- they need to come in to our province and be isolated for 14 days. So the earliest -- even if we bring them in tomorrow, the earliest we can start will be end of February. So that's -- our aim is to try and be ready for end of February. So that means about a month -- we'll lose about a month of production after the Chinese New Year.

Surya Patra

analyst
#75

Okay.

Unknown Executive

executive
#76

That seems to be the main -- and we also have some impact on some of the performance chemicals that we sell into China, because if those plants that we are supplying to are in these provinces, then the startup of that also is a question mark. But fortunately, I think about 80% of our business is in North China, which has not been impacted. So...

Surya Patra

analyst
#77

Sir, we have talked about the kind of an impact from the development, but do you ever see or anticipate that, okay, there could be a kind of price escalation in a few of the chemical products and hence, there could be some positive impact to you?

Unknown Executive

executive
#78

See, it's difficult to say because, really, I mean, until it restarts -- China restarts, we will not know what is the position, who has what stock, have they been destocked. It's very, very difficult to say. They're not even allowed to open their offices as of now. They're all working out-of-home. So documents are not available. So it's too early in the day to say whether there will be an impact positively or negatively.

Surya Patra

analyst
#79

No. For example, since the TBHQ, BHA and all that, so there is a kind of a large producer even within China. So -- and this was a kind of a quite well-balanced market. And if anything happens in China products, the situation even remains under pressure or under such scenario for a quarter, then don't you see a kind of pricing advantage for your Italy operation, let's say, or wherever that you had -- since you are talking about selling TBHQ, BHA in the third-party market now given the Dahej commissioning happening?

Unknown Executive

executive
#80

Yes. So TBHQ and BHA, there is a producer in China which services the Chinese market because there is an anti-dumping duty on us till early last year. And now, of course, we've started selling a bit into China. So that producer is also not impacted by this in the sense, they're not in the impacted province. So they probably will restart, so the gap will be only 1 month, 1.5 months. It will not be like a whole quarter that they'll be out of business here. So yes, maybe short term, I mean, maybe a few consignments, you may get some advantage, but not significant. I don't think there'll be really a very big significant upside for a sustained period of time. I mean, a few transactions, yes.

Surya Patra

analyst
#81

Okay. Sir, coming to Dahej thing, see a couple of things about Dahej. Obviously, now you have already indicated that we are all set for commercial commissioning of the plant anytime in this quarter. But if you can just share the kind of a preparedness that you have already achieved there about the commercial operation there, and also kind of in the Dahej site itself. So this is the first about the -- first commercial activity, but you have also mentioned about the other 2 units that would be set up about ethyl vanilla and the MEHQ. So the kind of investment that would be required and the time line that you are expecting for that, setting up that.

Unknown Executive

executive
#82

Yes. So basically, in Dahej, we've started the trial production. So on the reaction section, we've done several trials, and that's working well. Next week, we start with the distillation section, the trials on the distillation section, which should take about a week or so to stabilize, and then we go for continuous run then. And we are hoping in -- by mid-March, we should be running on a continuous basis. So that's the kind of time frame we're looking at, as of now, subject to, of course, everything going as we anticipate, and there are no other hiccups on the way. But any which ways, by March end, we should be in commercial production. As far as ethyl vanillin and MEHQ is concerned, the time lines are, after we start the commercial production, only then we will start -- and after we stabilize the production, we will start the work on ethyl vanillin and MEHQ. Right now, we are only at design stage. The execution of that, since we already have the utilities and all the common infrastructure planned for in advance, it's only the plant construction which needs to be done and which, our anticipation is, it should take between 6 to 9 months to execute the plant construction. The investment required will be about INR 40 crores to INR 50 crores for both these plants put together.

Surya Patra

analyst
#83

Okay, sure. So I have a couple of more questions. I'll come back in the queue.

Operator

operator
#84

The next question is from the line of Debanjana Chatterjee from HDFC Securities.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#85

Yes. Just wanted to ask your long-term and short-term borrowings [ backup ] for the current quarter and 9 months?

Unknown Executive

executive
#86

The short-term borrowings are not increased on a stand-alone basis with respect to last quarter.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#87

Can you give the consol number?

Unknown Executive

executive
#88

Hello?

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#89

Can you provide the consol number?

Unknown Executive

executive
#90

Yes. So as far as stand-alone is concerned, it has not increased. It's at the same level which was during the half yearly. As far as consolidated debt is concerned, this is [ discounted ] of around additional INR 20 crores at various locations outside India. So the overall short-term borrowings, which was at around INR 200 crores, INR 195 crores, INR 200 crores last half yearly...

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#91

Half year, it was INR 264 crores, short-term, on a consol basis.

Unknown Executive

executive
#92

Yes. So it was including non-funded. So fund base limit is around INR 220 crores and another INR 35 crores, INR 40 crores is non-fund base. So overall, the short-term loans have not increased. Secondly, as far as long-term loans are concerned, we have not taken any long-term loan during this quarter, and it remains at the same level as September '19.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#93

How much?

Unknown Executive

executive
#94

It's on the same level as September '19 half year.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#95

That is INR 199 crores.

Unknown Executive

executive
#96

Yes, INR 199 crores.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#97

Okay. And another question is your raw material cost on the consol basis has increased 80% on a Q-o-Q basis and 15% on a Y-o-Y basis. So what particular raw material has gone up and how?

Unknown Executive

executive
#98

Gross margin, we explained that earlier.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#99

is there any particular raw material costs that have gone up?

Unknown Executive

executive
#100

No, it's because of the vanillin business, which we are selling vanillin at certain price, that's why the material consumption is high in vanillin. And the vanillin has gone up from INR 30 crores to INR 80 crores.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#101

Okay. Solely vanillin, right?

Unknown Executive

executive
#102

Yes, yes.

Debanjana Chatterjee

analyst
#103

Okay. And what -- how much turnover are you expecting from Dahej from quarter -- in quarter 4 on a...

Unknown Executive

executive
#104

There's no turnover from Dahej. We're consuming everything internally. We are consuming everything internally. We're not selling anything outside.

Operator

operator
#105

The next question is from the line of [ Amar Mourya ] from ALFAccurate Advisors.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#106

First of all, congratulations for a very good execution and maintaining above INR 25 crores EBITDA margin on a quarterly basis. So congratulation to the management for doing this commendable job. So sir, my first question is primarily on the North America side. I mean, we were expecting couple of new wins from the North America. I mean, how that's panning out? And when we can see those culminating into the actual revenue?

Unknown Executive

executive
#107

Yes. Thank you, [ Amar ]. Yes. So North America, there's significant progress that has happened on several of these new businesses that we've been discussing. And we've been trying to get a sense of it for the last, actually, 5, 6 quarters, that some of these businesses should come to fruition very quickly. And now we are more confident that in the next couple of quarters, we will have some of these large businesses signed up. And we're at very advanced stages of approvals and negotiations in some of these contracts there. So you'll probably see it in Q1 or Q2, latest by Q1 or Q2 of FY '21.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#108

Okay. So meaning actual contract formulating into the revenue?

Unknown Executive

executive
#109

That's right. That's right.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#110

So by the year-end of next year, I mean, what we expect U.S. will be in terms of the run rate perspective or in terms of the EBITDA margin perspective?

Unknown Executive

executive
#111

Yes. So our sense is that by FY '21 end, we should be at a run rate of at least $1 million a month and giving us an EBITDA margin in the high teens, mid to high teens.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#112

Okay, okay, okay. That is helpful. Secondly, now when you indicated that Wanglong, a 70% kind of utilization level. Obviously, at this point of time, you are in the pressure because still the Dahej is yet to start. But once Dahej starts, and if you start sourcing vanillin from India, at 70% utilization level, your stand-alone Wanglong facility will be profitable?

Unknown Executive

executive
#113

No. So stand-alone Wanglong may not be profitable because we capture the margin in catechol and in guaiacol.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#114

Okay.

Unknown Executive

executive
#115

So we look at the business as a consolidated business. And on a consolidated basis, in this quarter, we were just about breakeven, a little above breakeven, which we expect that to go to the mid-teens kind of margin with Dahej.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#116

Okay, with Dahej coming in.

Unknown Executive

executive
#117

Yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#118

And thirdly, sir, now Brazil, in terms of the revenue growth perspective, has been growing very -- on a good run rate.

Unknown Executive

executive
#119

Right.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#120

So next year, I mean, because we happen to grab a market share from 1 of the competitor because there were some closure and all. So still, we see the growth opportunity in Brazil going forward also?

Unknown Executive

executive
#121

Yes, yes, absolutely. In Brazil, we have actually 3 businesses. The animal nutrition and the human food, where we're gaining a good market share. We already have a good market share, and we're gaining some more market share. Animal feed and animal nutrition market we've launched in this year. And we've started getting some small business, but in the coming FY '21, we will see a significant growth there. Then in -- the third market is the biodiesel market. In the biodiesel market, we launched our product in the month of September, and we've got some very good results in the biodiesel market. Regulation has changed where it is compulsory now to use antioxidants in the biodiesel. So -- and Brazil is a large market for biodiesel. It's 1 of the top 3 producers of biodiesel in the world. So we see a good potential for us in the coming years to take market share in the biodiesel market. So to answer your question, yes, it will grow. It should grow faster than it has grown in the past.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#122

Okay, okay. And sir, if I see your Europe market, like we had done lot of restructuring in Europe. We were -- we had launched couple of new products into Europe. Followed by that, obviously, we are going to sell the hydroquinone and catechol in the Europe market, post the Dahej commencement. But still, the benefit of all those are not visible in the numbers. Like what is that basically stopping us in Europe?

Unknown Executive

executive
#123

No, in Europe, this time, I mean, on a stand-alone basis, it has a high-teen EBITDA margin here. So on a stand-alone basis, we are at almost 15% EBITDA margin. The only thing is, like we said, that the sale got impacted because we were holding stock.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#124

But then other than hydroquinone and catechol, we had launched some pet food business and other blends business also in Europe. So those businesses are -- those businesses are growing?

Unknown Executive

executive
#125

So that -- we've restructured that business in this year -- actually, in the last quarter. We've got a brand new sales team now in place, which has started working from Q4. So the results of that we will see in the next year. Q2 of FY '21, we'll start seeing results in the blend business in Europe.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#126

Okay, okay, okay. So basically, broadly, now all the SBUs, other than the stand-alone business, are also coming on the stream. And next year, you will see even the benefits from all SBUs along with the stand-alone because of the Dahej.

Unknown Executive

executive
#127

Right. That's right.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#128

And 1 last from my side. Dahej, now initially, we talked about cost saving in the range of INR 40 crores to INR 50 crores on a yearly basis. So still we hold that number? Or there might be some benefit more than what you had indicated?

Unknown Executive

executive
#129

So I think what we are seeing is that the market is strong even right now for hydroquinone. If it remains where it is, it will be -- the improvement in margin will be more than what we had indicated, if the market remains at that price. But it's early days because once new capacity of 5,000 -- 4,500 tonnes, 5,000 tonnes comes into the market, the impact of that is difficult to say today. What -- whether it will make -- it's about 7%, 8% of the total market that we are adding. But the good thing is that, in China, there were 2 plants which were making hydroquinone from aniline which have now closed down in the last quarter. So we expect that -- and they had a capacity of almost 3,000 tonnes. So we expect, net-net, the price of hydroquinone should remain where it is right now. And if it does, then it will be significantly better than INR 40 crores, INR 50 crores, the margin.

Operator

operator
#130

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Ravi Mehta from Deep Financial.

Ravi Mehta;Deep Financial;Research Analyst

analyst
#131

Just wanted to check, any dependence on China for some key inputs? And is that getting impacted due to the coronavirus issue?

Unknown Executive

executive
#132

Yes. So essentially, not really. We have 1 or 2 products that we're dependent on China, ascorbic acid for ascorbyl palmitate as a raw material. We are covered till April and we're looking at alternative -- there's some stock available in India, we're trying to cover that as well, so that if the disruption continues into April, we should be covered for May is what the attempt is. Other than that, there is not much really that we are purely dependent on Chinese supplier. So on the supply side, we're okay.

Ravi Mehta;Deep Financial;Research Analyst

analyst
#133

Okay. And if the epidemic of coronavirus extends, any plan B for catechol if you ramp up Dahej? Any thoughts?

Unknown Executive

executive
#134

Yes. So that's a challenge because all large consumption of catechol, all of that is in China. So if this virus continues, and if this lockdown remains for 6 months, that can have a very, very significant impact. Actually, it will have impact all over the world. I mean, it'll disrupt all supply chains completely. So yes, I mean, that would impact the catechol.

Ravi Mehta;Deep Financial;Research Analyst

analyst
#135

Then in that case, we may not ramp up Dahej or...

Unknown Executive

executive
#136

No, we'll hold stock here.

Ravi Mehta;Deep Financial;Research Analyst

analyst
#137

We can tweak the mix in favor of HQ. Is that possible?

Unknown Executive

executive
#138

That's also possible, very much possible for us to tweak it. So we'll see as it goes along. It's too early in the day to really decide on which way to go.

Operator

operator
#139

The next question is from the line of Rohit Sinha from Emkay Global.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#140

Just one thing on the CapEx side. After this Dahej thing, I think we don't have any major thing, major CapEx lined up. So what would be the number for FY '21, let's say?

Unknown Executive

executive
#141

What number, CapEx number?

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#142

CapEx. CapEx number?

Unknown Executive

executive
#143

CapEx would be about INR 40 crores to INR 50 crores for MEHQ and ethyl vanillin.

Rohit Sinha

analyst
#144

Okay, okay. And post that, any annual maintenance CapEx kind of number?

Unknown Executive

executive
#145

No, that, I mean, will continue. I mean, whatever, INR 20 crores, INR 30 crores will continue.

Operator

operator
#146

The next question is from the line of Surya Patra from PhillipCapital.

Surya Patra

analyst
#147

Yes. Just on the revenue mix side, sir, can you share what is the blends revenue this quarter? And how has that performed Y-o-Y? And see going ahead, given the kind of ramp up that we are talking about or that is in there that we are anticipating from the Brazil performance or U.S. performance and all that, so what outlook that you're now providing for blends?

Unknown Executive

executive
#148

So the blends business, this quarter, we did about INR 80 crores. And the last quarter also was about INR 80 crores, but we have to keep in mind that the December quarter for Latin America, all of Latin, so Mexico to down to Brazil, from 15th of December, everything shuts down there for Christmas. So you really have 2.5 months of business. So looking at that and maintaining what we did in the last quarter, I think we will probably grow at about 15%, 20% over the last year. So -- and the outlook is strong because we have made big inroads into the bigger markets, which is North America. And a few contracts that we are negotiating can significantly change these numbers. So the idea is to take this INR 80 crore business per quarter, we need to look at doubling it in the next 2 to 3 years.

Surya Patra

analyst
#149

Okay. And, sir, very interestingly that you talked about the Brazil story wherein you have talked about the animal nutrition as well as the biodiesel.

Unknown Executive

executive
#150

Yes.

Surya Patra

analyst
#151

So can you just provide some scope of the operation there on these 2 line items? Because that can possibly provide even more visibility or more growth scope in the next 2 years the way...

Unknown Executive

executive
#152

So animal nutrition, Brazil is the fourth-largest country in the world as far as animal feed production is concerned. So the market is 3x the size -- actually, it's 3.5x the size of Mexico. And if you see what we do in Mexico, if we can even do that much in Brazil in the next 2 to 3 years, it's a very small part of market share. So the opportunity is very large in the animal nutrition side. We're doing a very small business, a few hundred thousand dollars, which potentially can become $3 million to $4 million very, very quickly since it is a significantly larger market than Mexico is. As far as biodiesel goes, it is, I think after the U.S., the second-largest producer of biodiesel in the world. And since it has been mandated that they use antioxidants in biodiesel, it's almost like an opportunity would be about $40 million to $50 million -- total market would be $40 million to $50 million. So of that, since we are the basic producer of TBHQ, we should have a significant advantage over our competitors. And we can take 30%, 40% market share as we go along here just in this business.

Surya Patra

analyst
#153

So that $40 million to $50 million is the kind of a potential market for the biodiesel business?

Unknown Executive

executive
#154

Potential market, yes.

Surya Patra

analyst
#155

And currently, it would be in what size, sir?

Unknown Executive

executive
#156

No, currently, it's small because there was no mandate to use antioxidants.

Surya Patra

analyst
#157

Okay. So this is an incremental opportunity?

Unknown Executive

executive
#158

Now it is mandated by law. So very quickly people are filling up and trying to sell to them. So of course, we have many competitors in Brazil, 3, 4 competitors who have been around for a while, selling small quantities, selling other additives to the biodiesel market. So they've also come with their antioxidant solutions, but the basic antioxidant which works the best is TBHQ and its derivative, I mean, a blend of TBHQ. And we being the basic producer of TBHQ, I think it's safe to say that we can get 30%, 40% market share.

Surya Patra

analyst
#159

Okay. Without factoring this biodiesel thing, sir, what was the target market opportunity for our blends that we are looking for in Brazil and for which we would have launched the product?

Unknown Executive

executive
#160

Sorry, sir, I didn't follow your question.

Surya Patra

analyst
#161

Without factoring this biodiesel opportunity, which is adding incremental opportunity of around $40 million, $50 million, what was the target market size for that opportunity?

Unknown Executive

executive
#162

Yes. So for animal nutrition, the target opportunity...

Surya Patra

analyst
#163

No, in the biodiesel -- yes, opportunity...

Unknown Executive

executive
#164

Biodiesel was small, very small.

Surya Patra

analyst
#165

Okay. In the animal nutrition side?

Unknown Executive

executive
#166

Animal nutrition, the market would -- for the total market would probably be in the region of, I would think, about $300 million. In all the products that we have, in our universe, the total market size would be about close to $300 million.

Surya Patra

analyst
#167

And with the same 3, 4 competitors there?

Unknown Executive

executive
#168

Yes and no. In some products, you have different competitors. But yes, in each product line, you probably have 3 to 4 competitors.

Surya Patra

analyst
#169

Okay. And sir, just last 1 question on the Mexico side. So we have seen last year, very strong growth beyond 30% kind of levels in Mexico. And of late, of course, we have been seeing some double-digit growth, mid-teens kind of a -- so how should one really -- whether we have saturated there? Or so the scope for growth has to be driven by the new product launches or something like that? How should one really look at the blends operation of Mexico? And overall, the blend so far has become like 30% of the total revenue mix as of now. So let's say, in 2-year time line, can blends be like 50% of the revenue? Or any ballpark or indication that you can share?

Unknown Executive

executive
#170

So as far as Mexico is concerned, Mexico covers different countries, apart from Mexico itself. It covers Guatemala, Peru, Colombia, Cuba, all of Central America, Ecuador, Honduras, all those geographies. As far as Mexico is concerned, only the country Mexico, I would say, in some of the products, we have saturated the market, we have 80%, 90% market share. That would be in the antioxidants, but there are several other products where we have small market shares. So there is a potential to grow in those products in Mexico. Also some new product launches that we are doing with potentially very large markets, again, in the country of Mexico. So Mexico will be a mix of both gaining market share in existing products as well as new product launches. As far as all the other countries are concerned, we have very, very small operations. So there's a big opportunity for us to grow in our existing portfolio of products, including antioxidants. So there we have -- our businesses are very, very small. And our focus in FY '21 is to establish those markets and get growth out of there. So to answer your question, overall basis on the blends business, with INR 80 crore, our target is to take it to INR 150 crores, INR 160 crores in the next 2 to 3 years there. Now, what will that be a percentage of total revenue will depend on how the other verticals are performing here.

Operator

operator
#171

The next question is from the line of Aakash Sharma from Goldman Sachs.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#172

Sir, my question was on this 2,500 tonnes MEHQ capacity which we are expecting to come online in Q3 of FY 2021. So what is the optimal capacity utilization which we're looking and in how much time?

Unknown Executive

executive
#173

So the total market is about 5,500 tonnes globally for MEHQ, and we expect to reach our full capacity in 2 to 3 years of our starting.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#174

In 2, 3 years?

Unknown Executive

executive
#175

Yes.

Aakash Sharma;Goldman Sachs;Investment Banker

analyst
#176

Okay. Is there any sizable player operating in this vertical, in this product?

Unknown Executive

executive
#177

So there are 2 players, basically. Solvay is the leader. And there's another Indian player called Clean Science. So there are 2 -- basically 2 players which control 80% of the market here. And there are some 1 or 2 small Chinese producers.

Operator

operator
#178

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Pranav Parikh ], an individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#179

I just wanted to know, why is there a difference between September quarter and December quarter in the tax thing? September, we had paid only INR 1 crore tax, and in December, we have paid INR 10 crore tax.

Unknown Executive

executive
#180

2 -- 3 reasons. If you see, the average tax rate for 9 months is around 40%. As you know, all the geographies other than India are calendar-year tax filings. So generally, estimates are then evened out with actuals, and we come with the current tax or deferred tax. So that is 1 reason, because some of the geographies, there are huge profits. Like in Mexico, we had very good profit in the last quarter, which pushed up the tax payments. We had estimated lesser profits. Similarly, there are losses in some of the geographies like U.S. and China. U.S. and China -- U.S., we are not making any deferred tax. So the entire loss which we do, we don't get benefit, but the tax which we pay at -- the profits in other locations, we have to pay tax at 30%. China, we do make a deferred tax asset, but the rate in China is 25%, and whichever geographies which are making profits are in 30% to 34% bracket. So like India, Mexico, our Europe are 32% to 34% tax bracket, while China is 25% tax bracket. So that's a differential of, if we make loss there, there's 5% to -- 8% to 9% differential. That's why the tax is looking at a higher rate. But if you see, on a 9 monthly basis, it's certainly 40%. And that's because of losses in some of the geographies.

Operator

operator
#181

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Unknown Executive

executive
#182

Yes. So essentially, the 2 big things that are -- this quarter that's going to be significant, of course, is Dahej, and the second 1 is the China virus, which can impact our vanillin business. Though on a stand-alone basis, like we've said, there's no impact really because it doesn't make money there. So the top line could get impacted. On the revenue side, it could get impacted. But as far as the margin goes, I think we should be able to maintain what we have, even if we cannot restart the facility for the whole period. I think with that, we've made our closing statements.

Unknown Executive

executive
#183

Thank you.

Operator

operator
#184

Thank you. On behalf of Ambit Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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