Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust ($CARUN)

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Canadian Apartment Properties REIT's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. My name is Claire, and I'll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to Nicole Dolan, Investor Relations at Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, to begin. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that during our conference call this morning, we may include forward-looking statements about expected future events and the financial and operating results of CAPREIT, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. We direct your attention to Slide 2 and our other regulatory filings for important information about these statements. I will now turn the call over to Mark Kenney, President and CEO.

Thanks, Nicole, and good morning, everyone. Joining me this morning is Stephen Co, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to personally announce my retirement as President and CEO of CAPREIT. And I am pleased to announce Brad Cutsey as my successor effective July 2. I have greatly enjoyed the nearly 30 years I've spent with CAPREIT, and I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone, past and present, for their collaboration and partnership. Brad brings substantial leadership capability and public company expertise. With 30 years of experience in real estate and capital markets, I am confident that under his leadership, CAPREIT is in good hands and well positioned for the future. And with that, it is my pleasure to be here with you today on my final conference call to present one last update on CAPREIT's performance. Let's begin on Slide 4 and walk through some highlights from the year so far. In 2026, we've completed $45 million worth of asset repositioning in Canada. We've also sold $143 million of properties in the Netherlands through April 2026. Following that, on May 1, CAPREIT closed on the privatization of European Residential REIT, acquiring all publicly held units not already held by CAPREIT for $99 million. On our NCIB, we've repurchased and canceled $42 million of our trust units at a weighted average price of $37 per unit, which represents a substantial discount to our NAV of approximately $55 per unit as of March 31, 2026. Operationally, despite current pressures impacting the broader multi-residential sector, CAPREIT continues to perform well. On our same-property residential portfolio in Canada, occupancy was 97.1%, while occupied AMR grew by 2.9%. Combined with the ongoing improvements to cost control and procurement efficiency, our same-property NOI margin in Canada expanded to 62.2% for Q1 2026. With the decrease in the fair value of our investment properties this quarter to reflect softer market conditions, our total debt to gross book value ratio increased to 40.3%, a level we still consider conservative and on target. Turning to Slide 6. You can see how our portfolio composition has evolved. Today, the majority of our portfolio is concentrated in core assets, complemented by a meaningful allocation of recently constructed properties, which help our capital requirements and improve operating efficiency. In addition, given the high quality and exceptional locations of these buildings, they offer strong upside potential once supply-demand dynamics normalize. We also maintain flexibility through a smaller allocation of noncore assets, which supports ongoing capital recycling. This balanced mix enhances the resilience of our platform and drives more stable performance through varying market conditions. With that, I'll turn it over to Stephen to walk through our operational and financial results for the quarter.

Thanks, Mark. We'll start with operational performance across our Canadian residential portfolio, as shown on Slide 8. Our occupancies have held up well given current market conditions with 97.1% occupancy as at March 31, 2026. While modestly lower year-over-year, this compares favorably to industry benchmarks. You will also see here that occupied AMR has increased, as Mark mentioned. On the total Canadian residential portfolio, it grew by 3.3% to $1,732 as of March 31, 2026, compared to $1,677 on March 31, 2025. This rent growth is supported by renewals and the positive mark-to-market opportunity embedded across much of our portfolio. However, it also reflects turnover that remains weighted toward shorter-term leases, which are trending on average above market. Let's turn to Slide 9 and dive deeper into that dynamic. As we've discussed previously, turnover continues to vary by lease tenure. You can see the breakdown on this slide with approximately 45% of our turnover in the first quarter coming from residents who had been in their units for less than 2 years. These leases turn at an average loss to lease of 10.8%, reflecting ongoing pressure from shorter tenure leases that are turning over below prior peak rents. The remaining 55% of turnover came from all other lease tenures from 2 through to 10-plus years, where we achieved an average uplift of 5.7%. Together, this resulted in a blended change in monthly rent of negative 2.1% for the quarter, reflecting the overall impact of current market conditions across the portfolio. As of March 31, 2026, 28% of our leases had a tenure of less than 2 years with average monthly rent per square foot of approximately $2.60. This segment remains subject to higher turnover as market rents have declined. In contrast, longer tenure leases carry lower in-place rents, which continue to support embedded upside across the larger portion of the portfolio. Given current conditions, we expect elevated turnover among the shorter tenure leases to persist in the near term as higher in-place rents reset to market. At the same time, longer tenure leases should continue to generate positive uplift on turnover even in a softer environment, providing an important level of downside protection until supply-demand conditions return to balance. Referring to Slide 10, with the dynamics just described, our same-property operating revenues in Canada grew by 1.1%. On the expense side, same-property OpEx decreased by 0.5%. This reflects lower natural gas expense during the federal -- following the federal carbon tax removal that came into effect on April 1, 2025, as well as a 0.5% reduction in other operating expenses driven by our continued focus on cost containment. With that, same-property Canadian NOI grew by 2% and our margin expanded to 62.2% for Q1 2026. Diluted FFO per unit was up by 1.7%, driven mainly by accretive impact of trust unit repurchases under our NCIB program, along with growth in same-property NOI, partly offset by lost NOI on dispositions. On Slide 11, we've summarized our financial position with a well-staggered mortgage renewal portfolio that has no more than 13% of Canadian mortgages maturing in any single year and a low weighted average mortgage interest rate of 3.3%. We also have $124 million of available liquidity in Canada at period end, providing capacity to continue pursuing accretive opportunities. On that note, I will turn the call back over to Mark.

Thanks, Stephen. Before wrapping up, I want to quickly highlight Slide 13, which has some key takeaways from our 2025 ESG report recently released. We've made solid progress across our ESG priorities in 2025, with these efforts supporting our ability to deliver long-term value for our investors while also contributing positively to the communities we serve. I'd encourage all stakeholders to review the report for more detail on our achievements and ongoing commitments. With that, I'd like to take your questions. Before doing that, I just wanted to take a moment to thank CAPREIT's Board of Trustees that have been exceptionally helpful through my transition process. And I would also like to thank the incredible team at CAPREIT that's been built over the years. We have a group of really talented, highly exceptional, highly dedicated people that investors should take comfort in the fact that you've got a great team supporting your investment. With that, happy to take any questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Cowen.

Mark, congrats on a great career at CAPREIT and all the best in your retirement. It's certainly going to be big shoes for Brad to fill.

Thanks, Jonathan.

First question, just on the occupancy, you guys did manage to stay above 97%, which is a pretty good achievement. But how has it trended so far in Q2?

Well, I can comment on the market in general, more so than specifics on CAPREIT. But what we're hearing out there is cautious optimism that the market is showing up. It was a very cold winter. There's always that seasonal effect, but we definitely saw the correlation with the lifting of weather as others have reported also. And it's -- the market is there. I wouldn't read too much into that, but definitely, we've seen improvements that are expected seasonally.

Okay. So kind of cautiously optimistic on the spring leasing season. Is that fair?

Yes. Yes, as is reported in things like Rentals.ca, our favorite benchmark, cautiously optimistic.

Okay. Fair enough. And then on Slide 9, you guys -- you added in the rent per square foot, which is good info, and thanks for that. Where would you say your average market rents are right now? Where do they kind of fit in that slide?

I mean if I look at it just on a blended basis, Jonathan, I mean, the mark-to-market, I would say, in the plus teens. It would probably be 10% to 15% is what I estimate.

Okay. Okay. But -- I think we can work with that. And then lastly, just -- and we've seen this with your peers, but how much of a difference are you seeing in demand at the different price points in your portfolio?

There is steady demand for the legacy portfolio. And the demand for newer construction is very dependent on the price per foot. The product that's struggling the most in the market, not necessarily CAPREIT, is the plus $5 a foot is reported across the country as having a challenge. But where we've purchased buildings that are well located in that sort of affordable range of less than $3 a foot, there is decent demand.

Our next question comes from Jimmy Shan from RBC.

Just a follow-up on that Slide 9 breakdown. So in that 28% bucket, that's less than 2 years, would that be skewed to any particular market? Or is it representative of your entire portfolio? And would you say that bucket is consistent with the turnover rent growth that we've seen, i.e., 10% -- potential 10% roll down on the $2.60 rent?

Yes. I mean it's really skewed towards, you could say, more of a newer construction, but it also has some of the legacy assets that really -- we achieved peak rents that now are turning over. I would say within that 28%, about 10% is close to market. So you could basically say 18% has a higher propensity for it to turn over just because those ones are going to be -- those rents are way above market. So those -- that has a higher propensity to turn over.

I see. Okay. And then on the margin front, obviously, we saw a good improvement because of the carbon tax this quarter. How do you think the margin is going to play out for the balance of the year? Do you expect it to be fairly flat? Or are we still going to see some improvement from those cost containment you alluded to?

Yes. We're optimistic on cost containment. The work that's being done on cash flow improvements is definitely finding its way into margin improvement. But the team is working extraordinarily hard to find efficiencies and they're doing so. And I think that with softening in the Canadian labor market, it's definitely helping on the pricing side. We're not in the high flying days of COVID when you couldn't find anybody to work. There's good balance returning to the market. So we're feeling quite comfortable on the operating cost front and very optimistic on cash flow improvements with the new construction portfolio, really helping. So it will all be a matter, Jimmy, of how rents evolve over the next couple of quarters. But if we can hold our own, cost containment, definitely something that we're feeling good about.

Okay. Just last technical one for me. The current tax, do you have any guidance on what that looks like for the year?

I don't have the numbers in front of me, Jimmy. Maybe we'll take this offline.

Okay. Perfect. Congrats on the retirement, Mark. We'll definitely miss your candid discussion on this call. All the best.

Thanks, Jimmy.

Our next question comes from Brad Sturges from Raymond James.

Just to go back to our favorite Slide 9 here. On the 18% of suites that have a higher propensity to turn, and you said they're above market, how much above market on average would those particular suites be?

I mean, generally if you see what we reported on Q1, the less than 2 years is about 10%. I think that's a fair representation of what that 18% is.

Okay. Perfect. And given the cautiously optimistic tone, I guess, for the spring and summer, how do you think about the use of incentives from here through the remainder of the year at this point?

Yes, I think in the case of CAPREIT, the metrics to watch are occupancy first, incentive use second, and mark-to-market rents third with renewals being kind of as high at the -- maybe at the end there. But Stage 1 for us has always been maximizing occupancy, and we are seeing those seasonal improvements show up. Again, it was pretty cold winter. So it was nice to see the seasonal change that we'd expected. But the incentive use through Q4 and Q1, as you know, Brad, it gets amortized and does build slightly. And that would be our next line of improvement.

Okay. I appreciate that. Congrats, Mark, on the retirement. All the best.

Thanks, Brad.

Our next question comes from Kyle Stanley from Desjardins Group.

I just want to echo the sentiments. Congrats, Mark, on the great career, and you will be missed.

Thank you, Kyle.

So just going into the question. So obviously, we spent a lot of time on the short duration leases and the drag that's having on leasing spreads. As we're entering the spring here, in your view, has that rolled down and kind of peaked? I mean, I think to kind of build on what Brad just asked, Stephen, but how does that trajectory look?

Yes. I mean, I would say -- it's hard to tell. I mean, we're just getting the April data and spring leasing season, obviously, is in effect. But we're also -- we're tracking the rents. We're hoping that we have seen a bit of the bottom here. But again, I don't know if that's going to be -- I don't want to call that. I also think there's potential for it to come down a little bit more. So that part -- and it's hard for me to tell.

And just to build on that for Stephen's benefit and for clarity of comments we've made, the cold -- Q1 is always the most difficult quarter. And I think the weather that seized Canada in Q1, really, what we did see is quite a dramatic drop in traffic coming to our offices. Despite that, we fought the occupancy battle well, albeit with some rent deterioration on turnover and some incentive use. And it's been very refreshing to see those seasonal changes show up again in Q2. And that's the reason for optimism. That's also kind of what's being reported widely in the market, but it's more just the seasonal change. I would not read too much more into it other than it's refreshing to see traffic returning to the offices.

Right. Okay. Just -- again, sticking with the slide, it looks like the trend on at least the proportion of your turnover that's coming from those short-tenured leases is going a bit lower at 45% today from maybe 50% over the last couple of quarters. Is that probably a good way to look at it and expect that to obviously continue a bit lower as you turn more of these? Is that the view?

Yes, I wouldn't use that as extrapolation on what that would look like for the rest of the year. I mean it could just be seasonal. So we'll see. But I mean, I wouldn't look into that too closely. But I would say it would be -- you'll still continue to see 40% plus in that short-term leases.

Kyle, you make a very interesting point, though, that we will have to continue to kind of update the market on. With the newer construction portfolio, what remains to be seen, given that those buildings do have higher turnover is this might be the profile of turnover that we have. It's just the flow-through impact of either COVID leases or a softening market. But this is the information we'll continue to provide because I do think it's very helpful. Obviously, Slide 9 is getting a lot of attention today.

Yes. No, agreed. It is very valuable, I think, in the work we're trying to do. Okay. Last one for me. Just a higher-level question. If you had to point to some markets where the trends you're seeing today are more positive maybe than you would have expected, which markets might those be?

Yes. We recently did a visit to Halifax, and it's holding up remarkably well. Like there are a lot of cranes in the sky, but we're definitely seeing strength in that market. I think what I would be looking at as an investor is just the immigration trends around foreign students, in particular. And that would have probably a greater impact on CAPREIT than our peers, just given that we're in Vancouver, Montreal, we're in the universities in London, Ontario and Ottawa, where we tend to have student populations. So that's something we'll be watching really closely. Immigration in general and the absorption rate of the supply that's here. And blending that, as we've talked about, with just the starts and do those starts get completed and the outlook for what the deliveries are going to be like, as we all know, are very, very low going into the 24-month kind of horizon. So things -- it's just putting all these metrics together at the same time, it's supply, it's population decline and it's deliveries with an attribution to unemployment. And it's not deteriorating in the seasonal that we may have feared. It's a return to seasonal in Q2.

Our next question comes from Mario Saric from Scotiabank.

Mark, I congratulate you on your illustrious career and wish you well in retirement as well.

Well, thank you, Mario.

Yes. So just in terms of -- I apologize, I joined the call a bit late, so this may have been discussed. If it has, we can just move out. But the same-store revenue growth came in at just over 1% in Q1. Given what you're seeing thus far in the spring leasing market, it sounds like you're cautiously optimistic. Do you still think that '26 can land in that 2% to 3% growth range? Or could we expect it to be a bit more moderate than that?

Mario, I think where we're seeing, Q1 gave us about 1.5% in terms of revenue growth. I think that's something that is within the range that we expect, especially for the year. If we track OpEx growth for the remainder of the year, we did pretty well in Q1. A lot of it has to do with the carbon tax removal. But if we factor out the carbon tax on the same-property basis, I think it would turn out to be about 2% on an OpEx growth basis. So I think Q1 -- we'll continue to achieve some cost containment initiatives throughout the year. And so if you kind of blend that 1% to 2% revenue growth and maybe 2% to 3% OpEx growth, I think that's kind of where we may land.

I think, Mario, just to add, the CAPREIT portfolio will mature into a more stabilized state this year because of all the capital recycling that's happened, including things like ERES, we'll get to a more stable, predictable metric. And definitely, the new construction is going to help us on cash flow. It's definitely helping on higher margins, cost containment. And again, the efforts that the team are making around all areas of costs and CapEx costs are very positive, very, very positive. So it will all be about rents is what we said earlier in the call, that will determine margin growth. And we've got the best team we've ever had to handle this particular situation.

Best team and best portfolio that you've had as well. So the -- in terms of the incentives, so Q2 should be a bit more active in terms of actual leasing relative to Q1. With that said, do you think the absolute amount of incentives being offered has peaked in Q1?

I think what the data we're seeing, Mario, I think -- yes, I think that's a fair comment. It did peak in Q1. A lot of incentives were given in Q1, which doesn't actually -- it shows up later on because when the lease starts. But yes, I think we've seen the peak in Q1.

Okay. And my last one, just in terms of -- I know a lot of the heavy lifting on the disposition side has been done. Is there a range outside of the Netherlands, so Canada specific, is there a range that you're targeting for the rest of '26 and into early '27?

Well, like we have done the heavy lifting. All of our backs are under strain from the heavy lifting. But I look forward to Brad sharing with the market what comes next, and he's been exceptionally complementary of the strategy. But I would hold on for guidance with Brad, and it's fully fair to him. That would be my only comment.

Rest up your back. Congratulations again.

Thanks, Mario.

Our next question is from Matt Kornack from Nation Bank Financial (sic) [ National Bank Financial ] .

I'm not sure what that bank is, but I want to reiterate what my peers have said. I've always appreciated your passion for the business and it shows through. So anyway, turning to the operations. On that 1.5% growth in revenues, is that assuming stable occupancy, I guess, to where you were in Q1? And if you could give us a sense maybe as to where April and May have trended on the occupancy front, given your comments that, that's the leading indicator, that would be interesting.

Yes. So Matt, I mean, yes, I mean, it is looking at it on a stable occupancy basis. Obviously, we're not providing information around April. But I would say in the general market, we have seen higher foot traffic. And I think there is a more cautious optimism around leasing. So you can take that as probably a slight improvement in occupancy.

For us, we look primarily at traffic to the offices and then conversion rates. So it's really what was clear as a whole industry is that Q1 just saw a very, very slow velocity rate of people visiting offices to make decisions, and we've seen that seasonal improvement, which allows conversion rates to kind of deal with the occupancy. So again, maybe a bit of concern just with what's going on in the world and the spring is where we could be making decisions, but there's definitely an increase in visitors to the site for everybody. That's been reported kind of across the industry.

No, that makes sense. Your peers, I think, also saw a little bit of incremental occupancy improvement into the spring. And obviously, we dealt with a pretty disgusting January and February in terms of the weather. So that makes sense. I guess on -- the key thing, I guess, from here, I mean, there's all this nuance in terms of the turnover in the 2-year cohort, but some of those guys have already got a rent discount and they renewed a year ago. But where do you think market rents head, I guess that's what the key driver is going forward at some point?

Oh, you mean that inflection point. So that's the question on everybody's mind. Yes, again, the way I would try to think about it, it's a little bit complicated, but I keep saying it, is the way CAPREIT is organized is, first, it's occupancy; second, it's incentives; and third, it's mark-to-market rents with renewals. So the first line of defense for us has always been maximizing occupancy, and that will help the cash flow. And the improvement that I think is most important really to get early glimpse is use of incentives, and then you'll see mark-to-market rents follow. So it's a bit of a convoluted answer, Matt, but that's exactly how it works. So we're very much focused on being occupancy maximizers, always have been. And I suspect that Brad will follow the same formula. And we're viewing at the market. But what I keep commenting on is I am quite astonished that given what's happened to population decline and supply deliveries, how resilient the Canadian multifamily market is. It just doesn't seem to match the stats. And that's a testimony, I think, to CAPREIT and our peers in terms of buying well-located multifamily. And if it's location is right, it can kind of beat the statistics. And we've done a very -- I think, a very good job of picking good property in great locations. And so we should beat the overall trend with those decisions. So the market is resilient. And the last point that I would make, I think I may have made it on the last call, is that we must remind ourselves of what's happened in other countries where you've seen a bit of a housing price correction and the rental market always gains fuel in that environment. We don't appear to be in that stage quite yet, but that will be the first indicator. As Canadian home prices come under pressure or come under more uncertainty, we would naturally expect to see the rental market benefit. So that will be -- that could be an event sooner than anticipated, but we're not giving clarity on that event. Nobody is sort of seeing that yet, but we're sort of anticipating what's going to happen. But there's just so many different metrics that we've never faced before, population decline and supply.

Yes. No, that makes sense. And we talked about it last time as well, some of my associates still live with their parents and there has been household consolidation. So I think there's pent-up demand at some point if the labor market improves. And just maybe quickly on another point, though, on the student side. When would we anticipate seeing that trend in terms of those guys signing for kind of August leases? Because it looks like on the stats that the government puts out that the student population has been kind of stable at this point and it's not declining?

Yes. If there's an uptick in policy change there, then that effect you would see in Q3.

Okay. Awesome. Hope to chat in the future in whatever role you might eventually take or in retirement. Take care.

Our next question comes from Sairam Srinivas from ATB Cormark Capital Markets.

Mark, congratulations on a great career, and all the best for the journey ahead. I just had a question on Slide 6, I guess. So I'm stepping away from 9 now. Looking at the strategic portfolio repositioning, I know about 19% of these assets are newly constructed, would you guys track internally as to what the margins from these would be versus the overall portfolio?

Well, the margins for the new constructed -- I don't know if we've given -- they're obviously higher because, a, rents are higher; and secondly, pass-through utilities are there. So they're just naturally higher margins for those 2 reasons. And that will continue to kind of help mitigate any sort of utility cost increases and the like. So that's what we like about those assets is they're more inflation protected. And our strategy has been around buying in that upper middle part of the market, less than $3.50 a foot, and we consider that to be the mass market. And we've been able to buy some great properties in great locations that will be resilient as we just talked about, that will support higher margins. And obviously, plays heavily into CAPREIT's cash flow story.

That makes sense, Mark. And maybe just going back to your comment on how healthy the private market seems and there's an appetite for apartments there. Considering how soft public markets have been, are you actually seeing more volumes on the private side and more participants coming in to actually now buy apartments?

Yes. The trend -- the noteworthy trend that we're hearing from brokerage, and we've had inbound, is a very, very large appetite for what we would call our core portfolio, legacy assets, definitely apartments that would fall in that, call it, "affordable range." That's where the capital seems to be orienting itself. We are actively in the market and actively losing bids on assets, which is a good sign in terms of holding up value. So the print on some of the trades that have happened that have come out recently would have been trades that would have been executed or negotiated 6 to 8 months ago. And the valuation in terms of what we're seeing in the competitive market on assets that we're bidding on is very, very competitive. So there seems to be this ongoing disconnect between the private market and public markets, but the valuations at the asset level are alive and well.

Our next question comes from Dean Wilkinson from CIBC.

Mark, your candor, your honesty and your knowledge are going to be sorely missed. Maybe I could just get personal for a minute. You look back over the past 30 years of your career, you've seen a lot. What's kind of the biggest thing you can say has changed over that time? And what advice would you give to the generation that's going to follow you?

Well, Dean, thank you for those very kind words. And as always, I get excited when you come on the line. The institutional sort of nature of apartment ownership is the biggest change. It was a mom-and-pop business. It was what they would call the dirty cousin of real estate when in apartments, people didn't really want to get involved because the management was intense and talking with people face-to-face, takes a certain kind of person to be in multifamily. So that was the opportunity. So like the advice that I would give anybody out there seeking a career in real estate is apartments offer an incredible opportunity for somebody that really wants to get involved in a business that is an ever-evolving, ever-institutionalizing part of real estate, and they're highly sought-after skills. And it's the old school thing. If you have work ethic and common sense, you can go a lot of ways in multifamily. And that would be my advice. And I found it an incredibly rewarding career because of how many people that I've encountered that have sort of stumbled into the sector and have just had incredible careers. And there's lots of examples of that at CAPREIT. So yes, that would be my advice. It's a sector that's institutionalizing. Demand is extremely high for skills. If you've got work ethic, if you've got some financial acumen, and if you've got discipline, you'll have a wonderful career.

Thank you for that. I can say that I am smarter for having known you. I look forward to seeing you in your retirement. Thanks for everything, Mark.

We currently have no further questions, and I would like to hand back to Mark Kenney for any closing remarks.

Well, that's a very nice way to end. I'd like to thank everybody for your time today. It's truly been my pleasure to be a part of this great company. And I'm excited to see what will come for CAPREIT in the future in the years to come, and I will be there on the sidelines to help if you need me. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.