Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 19, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Brandon Oglenski
analystGood afternoon, everyone. I'm Brandon Oglenski, Transportation and Airline analyst here at Barclays. And next up today, we have Canadian Pacific Railway, and I'm really honored to have Keith Creel on stage with me here, CEO of the company. And Keith, your rise to fame has been pretty awesome, going through Burlington first and Canadian National and now, running CP. So I know we're going to dig into a lot of that. But at first, we can just get the audience response questions. Question one, do you currently own CP? Yes, overweight; two, microweight; three, underweight; or no. Keith, I know your answer to this one. [Voting]
Brandon Oglenski
analystQuestion number two. Can change some hearts here. What's your general bias towards CP right now? Positive, negative or neutral? [Voting]
Brandon Oglenski
analystAll right. And then question number three, in your opinion, through cycle EPS growth for CP, will be above peers, in line with peers or below peers? [Voting]
Brandon Oglenski
analystAll right. Well, Keith, thank you again for coming out. We really appreciate having you here.
Brandon Oglenski
analystI definitely want to keep this long-term in nature, but I got to ask for everyone in the room because I think folks are pretty concerned about what the slowdown in China means? And if it's prolonged, how could that impact the supply chain? Been asking every company, are they hearing -- are you hearing anything from your customers? Is there an inventory issue? Is it something you need to start planning for in the network?
Keith Creel
executiveYes. I think our customers are probably as puzzled as we are. I don't think there's an accurate answer because we just don't know yet. We're paying attention, obviously, to intermodal space, international intermodal. But with that being said, our business because of a contract win with the Yang Ming, coming online is still up double digits. So we look at blank sailings. We only know of 1 so far, but do we expect that more may come? I think that's a reasonable expectation. But at this point, that; space and then the other thing that I see is a bit of a headwind that we're paying attention to is Canpotex. Obviously, we moved a lot of potash, and I think that this issue certainly has pushed that decision back a bit, but we're optimistic that, that will get resolved, and we're just taking a wait-and-see approach like everyone else. And in spite of that, it's created some choppiness, obviously, some uncertainty. We're getting to a place though that uncertainty seems to be certain. Certainly, it was last year. We see that in this year, and that's why we think about our business. We -- some have accused us of being conservative in our guidance, I think it's prudent. I think that there's so many moving needles that seem to be moving on us consistently that we feel confident talking about what we see a line of sight to and what we feel convicted and confidence in. And in times like this, it pays. That strategy pays well for our shareholders as well as for our planning processes.
Brandon Oglenski
analystAnd I guess, maybe more specific to that, if Canpotex becomes an issue longer-term throughout in 2020, does that jeopardize the outlook that your teams put together?
Keith Creel
executiveIt just depends on where it's at. I would say, with all the other puts and takes and the other opportunities, we said in our guidance, high single-digit, low single -- double-digit EPS potential, I think we're covered in that range, even if it does. So if it doesn't, is there upside? Yes, that's why we put -- the guidance we put out there, but in spite of it, unless it just completely goes away altogether, which we know is not going to happen because at least India and some of the other potash has been settled, I don't think it prevents us from getting to within the range that we've guided to.
Brandon Oglenski
analystOkay. We can definitely take questions from the audience, too, if there's any, so just let us know. But I guess, I want to ask something much more long term in nature because I want to come back to your, I think, 2018, Analyst Meeting, the last time we were up in Calgary, I think the theme was constructive tension, if I get that right?
Keith Creel
executiveYes.
Brandon Oglenski
analystAnd I can honestly say, I think you're one of the only CEOs I know that could name his entire team just by looking out in the audience, and there must have been 40 or 50 folks you called out. Pretty impressive by my book. How important is the culture at CP? And have you -- is there a culture at CP? It seems to be quite positive.
Keith Creel
executiveYes. Listen, I think about this, the operating model, the physical network, the geographic footprint, all that matters. But it's not any good unless you convert it. When you're talking about a railroad that -- the culture that was at CP before allow the lack of performance to exist. They didn't know what they didn't know, they didn't hold people accountable to what the potential could be, they essentially, and this is the way human nature works. If you make excuses and let people off the hook instead of define solutions, that's what you're going to get, and that's what was there. We took an operating model that's very powerful and applied it to a company footprint with people that wanted to be led. There was a tremendous amount of pride that has always existed at Canadian Pacific. And if you understand the history of the company, it's a company that helped create a country. So there was pride there that's unlike, I think, any Canadian company, probably that I didn't experience at my competitor. If it's very unique and I sensed it early, and when they were given the right leadership, it's an operating company. You run it as an operating company, because that's the majority of your employees and give them direction and show them how to do something they've never done, it's powerful. So the culture to me is the fuel in the engine. And if you don't have the right culture, and we started with operations, it's a culture of accountabilities, what it is. And it's accountability to each other, it's accountability to our customers, it's accountability to our shareholders. It's all 3. Those are your 3 constituents, and you've got to serve all of them. And we understand, and I learned this from my mentor years ago, if you don't do your job, #1 job of leaders is to produce results, that's what we get paid to do it. If I don't do it, somebody else should do it for me. I'm not entitled to a job. But the team that we put together, and this is permeating to the entire company. There are people that are there because they want to be there. There are people that are there because they get that, they understand that. They're not entitled to be there, they've got to produce. And if you take that mindset, and people understand that constructive tension, I might like you and we might be able to have a friendship, but your job comes first. And you got to produce and you play a role and you play a part. And when we do that collectively together, we succeed. And if you can articulate that vision and create a healthy culture, not a destructive, but a constructive, that's why that word is important, it's not produce results at all cost because that's when you get into things that don't lead the right business decisions and business practices. So you create the right culture, you'll overlay it with values that, that is, that's what we evolved in 2019. I said, okay, listen, all of you get it. How do we continue to convert the employees within the company? And all 13,000 of us get it because it's, like I said, 13,000 people, you're going to have dysfunction. So the least dysfunctional we can become, the better we can lead, the better individually we become, the better long-term the company becomes. So that's why we invest so heavily. That's to me. I think about following what will go down as, I think, the best railroad or ever in history and Hunter Harrison, got a lot to learn from him. I learned how to run the railway right. But my legacy is to honor his, is to not only do that, but to pour into people, so it's sustainable so that we can continue to create the success. And it's not a flash in the pan. It's the right way to run the business and whether on there or not there. Short term, long term, the company should improve. That's the legacy of a leader. And that's exactly what we're doing. It's so hard fundamentally.
Brandon Oglenski
analystSo hard for us as analyst to measure that on an Excel sheet, but...
Keith Creel
executiveYes, but I would agree. You can't put it on an Excel sheet. But there's -- I don't think there's anybody in this room that when you're in the right culture, when you go to a place where you know that there are high expectations, you got to produce. But if you do it, you're going to be treated fairly, you're going to create some success that's bigger than you, that's energizing, that gives you more than what money does. And money is nice, too. You're going to make money at the same time. You can't just go anywhere and create that experience. This is a special unique team that we put together, that's -- they're experiencing that where they never experienced it before, success breeds success. They're winners. And the more we share that with our employee base, you couple that with pride, and it's pretty powerful and unique in this industry.
Brandon Oglenski
analystWell, and I asked your closest competitor here on stage earlier today, if -- along these lines, because they've had some success over the years, too, I'm sure you had a small part to play that previously. But the idea that the railroading business shouldn't be looked at as just an economy business. This actually should be a growth business this cycle. Is that true?
Keith Creel
executiveI would say, yes. Especially, it's a journey. When I think about where we're at, and I think about -- when I took over as the CEO, when I came, if I back up to 2013, I had a mandate to help fix the engine, to implement PSR, to teach and lead change in the company, so we can provide a great service, do it safely and make money doing it. That created a whole lot of capacity. Then I had a mandate to grow. So as I grow, what we've done in the last 3 years that are allowing us? We had the best revenue growth last year or best -- on an RTM basis revenues, earnings. The year before -- 2 consecutive years, we've led the industry. Last year was a down year. We were marginally up and we were up, and that was important, and we're going to do the same thing again this year. And it's because of unique solutions that we're creating with our physical footprint, we've got capacity at inland terminals. We've built an automotive compound in Vancouver. That came as a result of, okay, how do we take what we've created and monetize it and drive growth that's counter to what -- just what the economy will give you? So if you innovate and you think about this, and then I think about now what's going to fuel, we've got this automotive compound done. Are we finished there? No. We're building one in Chicago now. We're going to come online in second half of this year with a facility of smaller scale, but still a facility located next door to the largest consumer of vehicles, OEM vehicles, in North America called O'Hare Airport. It's literally next door. You can see it from O'Hare. So it's compelling. So those kind of solutions, if you sprinkle them across the railroad, you go to Montreal. We're building a transload facility right now, which is going to bring additional revenue to the railway, serving a market that -- quite frankly, the truck. And we partner with TYT, which is a respected transload operator. We build the building, we use our physical footprint, they come in, they operate it, they bring that expertise and it complements the railway. Those kind of things are going to continue to allow this railroad several years out, gives me strong convictions that we'll be able to be counter to what the economy gives us, which is going to be GDP plus, which is going to be different than I think what other railroads have been able to realize and experience yet.
Brandon Oglenski
analystAnd how much of this is borne out of the, I guess, integral management of operations and marketing and planning? Is that an important aspect here?
Keith Creel
executiveI think it's critical. It's -- if the right hand don't know what the left is doing, and if the marketing team commits what the operating team can't produce or they oversubscribe because the market wants it, they think they can make money doing it and then operating team can't figure it out, that will destroy value. That's not the way this operating model works. It has to be in lockstep. So when you talk about sustainable, profitable growth, it means the assets, be it people, be it locomotives, be it track, you're not doing a customer any good if you promise them the moon and the sun and the stars and essentially, you lose your credibility. You have to create truck-like reliability. I guess that's the best way to put it, and enjoy the margins that we enjoy and the cost of energy, enjoy in the rail network. So they have to be together. And if you disconnect them, that's something I learned a long time ago when I worked with Hunter in my previous life. I never really understood, on the operating side, when I had operations -- wait a minute, I won't -- and as the CEO, he said, no, you're not ready yet, number one, and I wasn't. But now that I'm doing it, the power, and I've talked about this at an investor meeting a minute ago, I have operating sessions with my operating team fourth quarter every year. We go through, okay, this is what we've done. This is what we've done well. What are your initiatives for next year? And it's much about teaching and learning at the same time. So when I participate for 3 days, and we whiteboard things, and we talk about the nuts and the bolts and where we have capacity, where we don't have capacity, where we need to hire, where we don't need to hire, what are the productivity opportunities? When you can take that knowledge and help teach, so they execute it, and then I can overlay that in partnership with my marketing team because -- I'm not doing that by myself. Mike Foran, who is the glue that connects the 2 with our assets, with its size and people, locomotives or cars and also track capacity, he's in the middle of those meetings, too. So when you can parlay that and you connect the 2 in the middle, you've got a great product that doesn't destroy the value of your existing product, and it's compelling when you go to customers because they can say, okay, this is what we need you to do. All right. Well, that's how Vancouver came about. What's the challenge with Vancouver? Well, Annacis Island's locked out. We can't really -- not get service. There's no more capacity, and that's really expensive. Do you have a way to fix this? Well, let's look at it. Will I get a whole lot of land? What if we were to build an automotive compound? What would that do? Those kind of solutions when you get to a customer, when you can help them make money and save money at the same time and grow their business and you can benefit, that's how you create stickiness, and that's how you do something that's innovative. And it's not just give me what GDP gives me. You're going out, creating solutions yourself. You got to think entrepreneurial and you got to have the knowledge to make sure you don't overstep your commitments because when you do, if you destroy customers' trust, they don't forget easily. And it creates -- to me, it's value destroying, it's not value creating.
Brandon Oglenski
analystHow do you consent the team around this then?
Keith Creel
executiveWe have a very unique commission program where they actually can earn commissions on additional new revenue. And there's profitability thresholds in it, there's pricing in it. So it's got to be quality revenue. It's not just revenue for revenue. So I'm not going to put a [indiscernible] says, grow revenue 20% and you get X number of commission dollars. You've got to get your base budget and new revenue above and beyond that's qualified, quality revenue. We have a little internal team, 2 or 3 guys and gals that go through and look at all these opportunities, then they qualify what's called a SIP payment, which is a bonus. It's essentially a commission above and beyond their base salary. And we implemented that 2014, '15? Just last week, once a year, we bring all the marketing and sales together. We had a 3-day session last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday that I participated in with the marketing team. And I'm telling to that group, looking across the room, and I've seen this over the last 6 years because that was our 6th event, and I participated in all 6. The players that are in there, there are 8 players. There are people that want to work in an environment where they can be pushed and challenged, and they're given support from senior leadership. They've got a physical plant. They've got a product to sell. It's just a pretty motivating place to be. And at the same time, back to what I said earlier with the culture, they can make money doing it. It's pretty special. So that's it. You got to pay them well. But also, you got to have accountability, that constructive tension. They don't have a seat at the table if they don't bring their base budget to the table. It's the same standard of culture and the marketing team as it is in the operating team. We all have a role to play, we have to play it. Produce results. It's not at our cost, do it the right way. You stay, we all succeed. If you don't, you're not a bad person, just a bad fit. You don't fit this culture. And you either self-select, which a lot of people have, or we have to make the tough decisions as leaders.
Brandon Oglenski
analystWell, I guess along these lines, you guys have talked about in-market opportunities in the autos, grain. I mean it runs the gauntlet at your company right now. What's most exciting for you? And of course, got to bring up crude, too, because that seems to be maybe a bit different this time, maybe?
Keith Creel
executiveI don't know if I'm -- crude is a tough one, right? We've had an unfortunate past couple of weeks with a couple of crude derailment we had in February and one we had in December. Obviously, created a lot of concern we had to respond to with. We had Ministerial slow order that came out last week or I guess -- all these issues we've had, these challenges, these choppiness, I guess [ broadly ] was a week ago, where we had a derailment -- crude derailment. We had the government come out with the Ministerial Order, slowed all the trains down. We had already taken steps ourselves as soon as it happened to slow our crude trains down until we better understood what was going on, and we've had time now to go through data to set with Transport Canada and the experts. And they came out with a revised order, which we put back in place. I guess it was 2 days ago. So we're beyond that on the crude side. The thing that excites me in crude is the DRU. And we talked about that a little bit on our last investor call, but that's -- going forward, that's going to be online in the second quarter next year. So it's an 18, maybe 24-month process to build it. It's going to be in Hardisty, which we originate. We single line serve it. Right now, we run 3 typical crude trains a day, which is -- for those of you that don't understand, it's 70% bitumen and 30% diluent, so that it's -- it has enough viscosity to move through the pipeline to get into the railcar. And then it's offloaded the same way when it gets to the refineries. This new product is going to take that diluent out, and you're going to have 100% bitumen, so 30% more product per car, and it creates a pipeline of competitive product. And then the exciting benefit is it's non-hazardous. It's not a hazmat shipment. It goes in, it cools off, it sets up and then it has to be steamed and heated at the receiving end to offload it again. So if you have an unfortunate accident, the environmental exposure is not even remotely close to what crude is today. And the other huge piece beyond the safety piece is it's ratable and it's going to become part of our revenue pipeline in perpetuity as long as we use fossil fuels. Crude has always been, and we said this, it's been a temporary lack of capacity takeaway alternative to the pipe. Once the pipe gets built, whenever that is, regular crude as we ship today is going to go away. This will not. So it comes online, it's 100,000 barrels a day capacity, which effectively equates to 2 trains a day. The per car revenue is not the same as a regular crude road today, but the risk is not remotely same either. And then the other positive is the length of haul is going to be longer. So most of the proponents of the crude we take today is hauled to Emerson, in partnership with Burlington Northern, goes to the [indiscernible]. So it's a shorter haul move versus the new stuff. The 10-year deal that's going to come online with DRU is going to be the Kansas City, but the length of haul is going to be greater than it is today.
Brandon Oglenski
analystHow significant could this business get to?
Keith Creel
executiveYou know what, it's a $100 million rough number, a year revenue stream today. I think, I'm an optimist. The potential is there to double that. Obviously, they've got to get the contracts. The capacity is $100,000. It's scalable up to, I believe, 6. Now you got to have the business case to do it, so I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. But I truly think that once the starts to move is more, oil company see the benefit of diversifying their supply chains, they're going to have some, I think. Going through a DRU, they're going to have some going in the pipeline and some is going to be coming off the water. I mean it's -- I think it becomes part of a long-term recipe for success that all the oil companies are going to have to follow to be able to compete.
Brandon Oglenski
analystWhat about the other business opportunities in the network? You spoke a lot about developing your assets, real estate, like you did in Vancouver and now Chicago for autos business. What else is coming down the pipe for CP? Which group? I mean I can -- what excites you the most?
Keith Creel
executiveLet's go to -- I think, a game changer for this franchise that we're just now starting to see some of the benefit of is grain. Grain is a large portion of our revenue. We're known as the grain railroad. We're revolutionizing that supply chain. So you hear us talk about 8,500-foot grain trains. Well, the 8,500-foot grain train goes back to 4 years ago when we're looking at our fleet, which was the worst fleet in the industry. Low capacity cars mixed with high capacity cars, so we're having to move more trains to move this equal amount of grain that our competitor was moving with high-capacity cars, plus they're not reliable and they're high cost because they're so old. So we said, okay, what's state-of-the-art? Well, state-of-the-art is a company, it's located in Hamilton, Ontario. They build a shorter railcar that handles more capacity. So that's what I call -- right now, that's the best in the business. So we've created a business case, said, okay, if we can work with the government to make sure we get the benefit, our shareholders get the benefit, which is what the legislation did last year, what would it look like in a perfect world? Well, it's going to look like incremental cars added, no more locomotives, you've got an 8,500-foot train, that if you compare the 2 and you can launch them and land them, and that's why we've gone and said, okay, we're going to create market dynamics and rate incentives. We're going to do away with the fixed 6-car block incentive when we get that done, and we're going to go to, okay, if you can do 134 cars, which is 8,500 feet, rough numbers, you can launch it and land it, we're going to let you share in the synergies because if we're going to be able to move more grain, you're going to get it at a lower cost. So that's what's driving investment on the bookings. But the grain companies right now are in our network. We've got 15% that are capable to launch an 8,500-foot train. We've got a plan going this year, by the end of this next crop year, we'll be at 30%, and it's going to continue. So once that gets to fruition, we've got 2,000 of those cars now. We're going -- 2 more years, we'll be up to 6,000. I think the end of this year, we'll be around 3,200. Once that gets done and that creates that perfect 134-car grain train versus today's model that's 112, which is a mix of low capacity and high capacity, it's 40% on that 1 train. Now that's euphoria. They want all be 40%, but that's how much more grain you can move with the same crude expense, incremental fuel, incremental wear and tear, and obviously, you got to pay for the investment. But that's a needle mover that's compelling for this company.
Brandon Oglenski
analystI think a fair concern from investors, though, I mean because your competitor is relatively successful, too, doesn't this become potentially a market share game then in the grain business? Or is this a growth opportunity specific to CP?
Keith Creel
executiveI think it's more unique to CP because of our cars. Like we're in a unique position, we were disadvantaged for so long, and now we're going to have the best fleet, my competitors' fleet. It's going to be a long time before they can replicate and justify turning those assets over because they have so much life left in their existing assets. So I think as long as we drive the right investments and we're doing that, and we got the right place to launch them and land them, I think there's space for both of us to win. I think we're going to be early adapters, and I think we're benefiting. Right now, if I look at the crop year-to-date, there are a lot of reasons that are going on, but our network were 52%, 53% this year. But the reality of it is, I don't care how much they talked about it, we talked about it, you want a diverse supply chain. All the grain that's produced in Canada, they need both railroads to do well. And it's not about one's going to go to 60% and one's going to go to 40%. It's just the way the elevators are built and the way they continue to be built. It's going to be 51%, 52% on one railroad; 48%, 49% on the other. Which networks? How is the moisture in the ground? Where does it grow? Where does it not grow? I just think both railroads go up, both railroads do well. Yields are improving every year. I think this year, 73 million metric tons is what the forecast is for the crop year that we're moving now. And if you go back 10 years ago, that might have -- I mean that was 20% less. So as they get better, they mean the farmers, yields continue to grow. You got 2 railroads that are going to benefit in that space.
Brandon Oglenski
analystCan we get question #4 here on the screen. In your opinion, for the audience, what should CP do with excess cash? Bolt-on M&A, larger M&A, share repurchases, dividends, debt pay down or investment? [Voting]
Brandon Oglenski
analystAnd Keith, I'm going to ask it because you've mentioned it publicly, share repurchases are the highest here. But you've said before in the past that as CEO of CP, you'd like to drive an agenda of M&A in the industry, is that a mischaracterization, or...
Keith Creel
executiveYes. No. I would -- that is a bit of a mischaracterization. I wouldn't like to drive. I just still -- it's inevitable at some point. It's a natural evolution. If capacity is going to be limited, and it is, it's limited when you have 2 separate networks. When you create 1 bigger network, you create more capacity. And for the railroads to handle the growth that's going to come, and it depends upon rail networks, we have to have more capacity. So that's the thesis. Eventually, you get to a place to create that capacity without an ability to build more railroads that you got to have a better running network. Now what's happened, which I think prolongs that, which I'm extremely encouraged for our customers and for our shareholders and for the industry overall, is this rapid adoption of precision scheduled railroading, because once you get beyond people being afraid of it, change is never easy, they're going to see and experience better service than they've ever saw or experienced. Those car owners, those customers that are scared of it now are going to be thanking you one day when they own less of those $100,000 tank cars or $100,000 hopper cars, and they'll get a better service. So the industry is going through an evolution that I think is going to create tremendous pressure or capacities that will push that dialogue back, but it doesn't solve it forever. So to me, I would have thought 2 years ago, it was a 5-year discussion. Now I think it's a 5- to 10-year discussion.
Brandon Oglenski
analystOkay. Question #5. In your opinion, what multiple of 2020 earnings should CP trade? And I ask that because you do have a fairly decent valuation now, at least relative to the industry. So if you're looking to do something, maybe now is not the worst time, but -- and then question #6. What do you see as the most significant share price headwind for CP going forward? Core growth, margin performance, capital deployment or execution and strategy? [Voting]
Brandon Oglenski
analystCore growth. Well, Keith, I guess as we look at this -- and the last one I want to ask and we are almost out of time, but there's definitely a divergence. I think I asked this on your earnings call, too. With some of your former colleagues even running the other North American railroads, with CapEx going a lot lower from U.S. carriers relative to where CP is reinvesting in the business. But clearly, they don't also have a track record of driving a lot of core growth. So do you view your capital profile as the right way? And I guess how do you approach that reinvestment?
Keith Creel
executiveWell, to me, the first call has always and will always be, can we invest the money back into the business to grow the business and drive earnings? That's to me what we're paid to do. And that's why we bought the CMQ, I mean that thesis. How can we extend our reach? I give it back to the shareholder, could they do something with it? Yes. But if I can keep it and do more with it, I think that's what the shareholder would want us to do. So that's what we're going to call on first. And then I think about our capital envelope, I don't get wrapped up in percentages. I know that ours is high, if you want to look at comparing us to the other railroads. But I would remind you, we're in a different place in the journey. We have already optimized. We've already created surplus assets. We're using locomotives for the last 3 years and the next 2 that we created 6 years ago. So us being able to take this capital holiday that PSR will get them naturally in a healthy way, it's not the same opportunity. So I look at how do I grow. I look at what do I do to become more productive. We're spending $0.5 billion on these hopper cars. That's going to be paying dividends and driving earnings for decades. That's the right thing to do. That in and of itself, though, is unique and special. And that's a big chunk of cash every year, it's $107 million. So when that finishes, and that's going to happen at the end of '21, a little bit in 2022, you'll see that come out. You'll see our normal at 1.6 be a 1.5 or 1.45 and then that's going to create a whole lot of cash flow valuation. And if I don't have a more compelling need internally to grow at that time, I'm going to give it back to the shareholder. We're going to continue modest dividend increases because we also have shareholders, a large book of our shares are on the Canadian side, and they prefer. So we think we have a responsibility to balance with some dividend, get back, but also similar cash retirements or share retirements as we've done in the past.
Brandon Oglenski
analystUnfortunately, we're out of time, Keith, but I really appreciate you coming down. Thank you.
Keith Creel
executiveOkay. Thank you.
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