Carlsberg A/S (CARLB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 28, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Cees 't Hart
executiveWelcome here. I'm great to see you back. Thanks a lot for really a great evening yesterday. Many of our team really enjoyed speaking with you and having good conversations. Heine and I come many times back talking about the investors and the analysts, but they yesterday see that there are human beings behind these words. So that was really great. Thanks a lot for that. Really appreciate it. Well, I said to a few of you yesterday, and I don't know whether that's the right disclaimer for the day, but we don't have new news for you today. That doesn't mean that you should leave now. But there is, let's say, a teeing up of SAIL'27, which we did on the 3rd of February. And I will do that again. And at the very end of the day, Heine will capture, let's say, the same more or less presentation as I do, but then a bit more from the angle of how we are going to finance this. And in between, you hear a lot of details from our colleagues. And I guess, the depth of SAIL'27 rather than only seeing this picture and having the headings will be the value of today. Separate from that, of course, all your questions are extremely welcome. So we will go through these levers. When we talk about SAIL'27, it's also good to basically look back if you want to understand the future, it's good to understand also the history. And we take you down to or back to 2015, 2016 when we started SAIL'22. I very much looked at the first phase funding the journey by just cutting costs and making sure that we were able, indeed, with the ambitions we had at that moment of time that we were able to pay for that. We made these investments in 2018 and started to shift gears for growth. And the themes you see there were the themes that we had in that year in the company. So 2018 was after 2 years cutting costs, shifting gears to growth. And we did. And this a very good 2018, we said in 2019, we're going to accelerate this growth and moving much more into the execution mode of SAIL'22. And then early 2020, as you know, we needed to navigate a storm. And now we are 2 years later, and we need to navigate 3 storms. However, despite the storms at the end of the 7 years of our strategic period, we can say that we had strong results for SAIL'22 priorities. At the moment, if you look at craft & specialty, an 11% CAGR from 2016 to 2021. AFb, 14%, core beer, a growth brand contribution that improved, which was very different from 2017 onwards than before 2017 and funding the journey 320 basis points of SG&A that we saved very much in the G&A rather than the S, so to say. And not to forget the stellar improvement in Asia especially China made a huge impact on Carlsberg over the last couple of years. And that meant also that we were able to transform our portfolio from a 7% share of beer volume to 10% when we talk about craft & speciality and alcohol-free brews. And that translated in revenue from 13% to 19%. So we are shifting our portfolio. And what you hear as a theme today, that 50% of the value of SAIL'27 needs to come from that is about premiumization. That's where the value for the new program mainly will come from. So this is then the result of SAIL'22. And when we look at organic revenue growth, operating profit improvement, adjusted EPS improvement, high free cash flow, a significant improvement of the ROIC and leverage, which improved significantly and the total shareholder returns step up vis-a-vis the years before. I think this is, by all means, a good testimony that at least SAIL'22 worked. And for that, of course, and with that as a base, we want to keep the momentum towards the future. We said on the 3rd of February is that we're really talking about an evolution and not a revolution. But it should not be only incremental, and that's what you will hear today. And I hope that the presentations of my colleagues will show you proof points why we think it will not be incremental. It's a kind of from 2 stories, so to say, and 2 is growing beer but also going beyond accelerating the sales growth, expanding our footprint in large profit pools like India, Vietnam, and today, you hear CK talking about China. Don't forget China, and I'm sure you don't forget, in 2015 made 5% operating margin, and we are now in the mid-20s CK and its predecessor, are the ones that really made that happen over the last 7 years. And last but not least, scaling successful models rapidly. And that's where especially Soren will show you the kind of models we have and what we can scale. When we look at this, you could argue that in 2015, '16, where we were launching SAIL'22, we had an ambition. SAIL'27 is more planned because we have proven that the approach, the way we work, the assets we have, that these work and hence, we are confident about our future. When we looked at SAIL'27, we went through the same 3 pillars: the why, the what and the how. And when you look at our ambition, the what we remain to be focused, that we want to be successful, we want to be professional. We want to be attractive in the countries where we are. So anybody of ExCom travels to our country, we ask these 3 questions to them. We want to be #1 in the market or improve the market share. We want to be professional in terms of delivering the highest standards in everything we do and be the preferred supplier of our customer. But also we want to be attractive for you, for our people, but also for the society. And therefore, we continue to look at our business through different lenses, the organizational health, the financial health the environmental health and a strategic health. We continue with our purpose. So the why does not change, knowing that growing for a better tomorrow can -- or gets much more emphasis than in the past. But we also understand that in order to reach the future, we really need to perform today. So I think we get the right balance for brewing for a better today and tomorrow. And based on, let's say, an unchanged ambition and unchanged purpose, we sharpened our priorities towards the SAIL'27. Soon after that, well, only 2, 3 weeks after that, we got another storm, and that was the war in Ukraine, and Lars will give you the latest update about what happened afterwards, both in the Ukraine and in Russia, and how will it impact our group. Carving out Russia, by the way, is carving out 5% of our EBIT. 2013, the EBIT of Russia was 40%. So if that let's say, still be the case today, we would have -- probably we will not have a Capital Market Day today. We will be in other meetings. So we're talking about COVID and the aftermath of COVID. We talk about the war in Ukraine and obviously, as you know, a significant different future with regards or near future with regards to inflation. And of course, at a moment that happens, these kind of storms, you look back and say, well, over the, let's say, the year last year, 2021, '22, we were very much focusing on preparing ourselves for SAIL'27 and we had some assumptions. Do these assumptions still fit? Are they still the right assumptions? And obviously, a few changed. When we talk about the GDP growth assumption we had and the consumer spending power they will not be in line with what we assume for our plan, especially not in 2023 and probably also, it will impact a few years longer. And the forecasted CPI of 2.5% of -- as a CAGR, we feel that, that is, of course, also at the low side as we see it now. However, the other assumptions, as you can read, this remains to be more or less the same. And especially when we look at our geographical priorities or our portfolio choices, we think that everything remains to be as we assumed, except maybe for premiumization, that could be a bit more under pressure but Soren will also show you that we are under-indexing in that segment. And by that, we still feel that we have an enormous potential for stepping up in that segment. So the key question for today is that we remain to be very confident about our SAIL'27 choices, priorities, but also our ability to accelerate the growth and creating by that value for the shareholders. Now why is that? Because we really think and therefore, we said we go for ambition towards plan because many of these brands, we did not -- frankly, we did not maybe understand ourselves in 2015, '16, that these brands potentially could be so strong. Take, for example, Blanc was very strong in France, but there's a very specific marketing mix. We were able to -- we saw that at the moment that we started to introduced in other countries, it was almost immediately a success, and we're now rolling these out. But if you talk about super premium, premium international lager, local premium, local core beer. That's the kind of portfolio we have. And by that, we also play the full Piano in maybe new area where we have high inflation less purchasing power. And that means that we have the full portfolio for any risk that the consumer might have, including mini luxury in difficult circumstances. We couple that with a portfolio that has extended towards alcohol-free, especially in Western Europe, that's the success. In Asia, it's still limited. But basically, we do believe that alcohol-free brews will grow further, especially in Europe. And I was last week in Laos, and also there, you can see over time, that's not over the coming 2, 3, 4 years, but over time, definitely, alcohol-free will be there also part of the portfolio. New to our priority, but different, if you like, from -- or no different from some of the brands we have already is Brands Beyond Beer, and we will talk about it more Brands Beyond Beer has a bit of a danger that suddenly everything beyond beer is possible. And we really need to make sure that we remain to be disciplined in this. And therefore, we focus very much on Somersby and Garage and 1 or 2 other opportunities that we will talk about today, but we will not expand this into a proliferation of opportunities. We have a diversified regional footprint with '21 #1 and 2 positions. And as you know, in beer, the #1 and #2 positions are extremely important. These positions make money and if you're lower in the rank, it becomes much more difficult. Of course, we have a slightly different balance now because of the carve-out of Russia. We also have the right sales execution tools . When we talk about FIT, value management or customer management. These are, if you like, capabilities that we have built and that we roll out in all the countries so that we have a consistent approach to the market. And especially, I must say, FIT is a tool that at the moment that we apply it well, we immediately see the consequences in -- the positive consequences in the market. It's nice to have a strategy, but people get a bit bored at a certain moment if you have a strategy over 7 years because they have to feel the certain moment that they know it all, that there is a wear-out effect. And therefore, we, every year, optimize, if you like, the knowledge about the strategy by focusing very much about what are we going to do this year to implement our strategy well. We call that the 9-grid. And I guess, many of you maybe are able to do that, but many of us are not able to do this to recall 9 different priorities. Therefore, we have 3 buckets, 3 x 3 priorities. And that works very well because people can remind that. And in the middle of that is the must-win battle. Basically, what are the must-win battles for this year in order to basically win in the market. And a must-win battle in our culture is a must win. And basically, this is what we continuously every month focus on at the moment as we look at our performance management, whether it's in Western Europe, Asia or Central and Eastern Europe. Behind all these, if you like, activities or KPIs that we follow up on. On the left side, you see the growth acceleration so that we are not only focusing on our golden triangle and how will we make sure that we deliver this year, but also make sure that we focus on what are, let's say, the seeds. We need to seed in order to grow in the future, whether it's winning in premium or strengthening mainstream core or accelerate AFB for example, for this year. And on the right side to make sure that we, as a company, continue to become stronger, also more professional. And every year, these 9 grids change based on the analysis that we have on the past year as to see what do we need to make sure that we deliver on our strategic intent. This is then what we do monthly. The 9-grid, we have the 9 grids, we have the regional annual planning. And on the right side, you see our golden triangle at the top, all about growth and the net revenue per hectoliter, the left side down, about the GPal and the GPal margin and the right side, the EBIT delivery region by region, but we also have it country by country and each country basically has the 9-grid and the right side -- at the right side, the golden triangle. And in the middle, as the consequences of all this is cash. So this is what we continue to focus on as a every month again in a meeting of 6, 7 hours. And in the beginning, I guess, many of our colleagues felt that it was a kind of a grilling session. But basically, now it's a very transparent session about how are we moving? What do we need to correct, how can we close the gaps if we have gaps? And if 1 region is not able to live up to the promises then as we say, core friend and a friend is in around the table, can have anybody of us chip in and compensate for that. And of course, it helps then that everybody is also on the same remuneration and STI and LTI. But also this entire approach of programmatic implementation of our strategy leads to opportunities at the moment that we have an unforeseen issue that we can dive into that and use our metaphor to communicate this around the group. So let's say, just after the Ukrainian war, and at the moment that we saw the inflation coming up, we really talked about windforce 12. And Windforce 12 is basically programmatic approach that we make sure that all the costs that increase and we're starting to try to cover that by price increases. And you see that here, what is the program then? We give full transparency to all our operators that means the managing directors in our other countries. The mitigation actions are all about taking price. So the inflation factors include an excise rate, commodity prices, supply chain inflation. And you see that on the very right side, all these kind of cost elements ForEx rates, salary increases and so on and so forth. So that means that our operators have a full focus, not only on the costs but all the potential cost price increases that they might encounter. The other part then is the price increase, what kind of discount list price increases can they take? And what kind of discounts can they, if you like, play with in order to ensure that the net revenue per hectoliter goes up. And we have translated that and Lars came up with that in this region because it was a bit earlier in the misery, so to say, with a Price Increase Inflation Coverage Model. That's nothing more or less than say, how much of the price inflation -- the cost inflation is being covered by price increases. And that means that if we have 100%, that means that all the cost inflation is covered by price increases. If it's 80%, we understand that we still need to do something. And that's how we run at this moment of time. Every month, again, region by region, country by country, what is your PIIC? Doing that, we also should remain focused on the priorities for the future. We have a fixed drum beat, so to say. At the first -- in the first half of the year we check in on the strategic priorities and whether they are still moving into the right direction and what we need to course direct -- course correct. And at the second half of the year, we then focus very much more on the business plan, implementing some of the issues that we discovered in the first half of year and taking that into account in the planning cycle for the business plan and the budget. It's all nice to have that. But at the end of the day, we need to have the right people to implement it. And I think I can say with a lot of confidence that the top 8 and these are the people that are running our countries or our functions. These are the people that are now hand-picked. We really feel comfortable with that. And with them, there are always 1 of 2 changes you want to make, of course. But by and large, we feel confident with our -- very confident with our team. We also have the right capabilities in order to execute SAIL'27. And as you know, with our balance sheet and the way we run the business, we have the funds to invest. And that means also that going forward, we remain to focus on funding the journey as a principle as a way how we run our business as something that comes back every month again and making sure that by that, we are able to fund our plans for the future, creating value then for shareholders, and that focuses on -- as we promised on the 3rd of February, organic revenue growth of 3% to 5%. Now you'll find it now low, of course, Heine will come back on that, how we see that organic operating profit growth above revenue growth, continued ROIC focus, disciplined capital allocation and ambitious sustainability targets. So also there, no changes over the last couple of months. And I hope by that, you will see from the presentations that there are a lot of proof points. And why -- also to show you why we are confident or why we think that with the program we have, we can really achieve our ambitions. And with that, I hand over to Peter. Soren?
Søren Brinck
executiveThanks. All right. So I'm here to talk to you about our commercial levers basically. So in this, it will be about our portfolio choices and then also about the commercial part of our -- of how we actually execute. Before I go into that, I'll also just talk you through a few key points on the category dynamics that we're facing. So as you're probably all aware, beer is a very large category within the world of beverages. It is 12% of total beverages. I have to say the numbers that I'm presenting now is basically representing our footprint. So it's not global data. It's really the data that represents our footprint. So we have our main businesses, so 12%. But if you look at value, it's actually 18%. So it is not only a big category, but it's also a very variable category. If you look within the beer category, then 60% of the category is what we call core mainstream beer. So those are the big mainstream brands. So the ones that are basically most commonly seen in all markets. So that will be -- a lot of them are local big, local brands. They represent 60% of the value, 36% are what we would call premium beers. That's how we define that is price index 120 and above. And we are a little bit flexible on the price index 120 because in certain markets, when you have very high duties, it could be that a brand that's actually priced at 110 is actually already operating at a premium level. So we are a little bit flexible, but the general definition is 100 -- is price index, 120 and above. And then we have alcohol-free beers with 6%. So 60%, 36% and 4%. If you look at the growth numbers, you'll see the mainstream core beer when we look at the way we see the data is that, that's slightly growing is basically driven by an almost flat volume in mainstream core beer, but then there's a small value increase in mainstream core beer, mainly driven by some pricing but also some work on the price pack configurations. And then in premium beer, you see 4% value growth year-on-year. So a good growth in premium and then 6% in alcohol free. So if you look at a premium beer, it's really still driven by growing middle classes and just the general premiumization trend you see, if you see alcohol-free brews, it's really driven by changing lifestyles. So they're actually consumers are looking for more alcohol-free choices. And then also we can just see that the fact that we are getting much better brews, alcohol-free brews out is also driving a lot of more excitement around the category. So that is also driving the growth. This is the chart that Cees was referring to because this is about the premiumization trend. So if you look at the chart on the left-hand side, it basically shows you the year-on-year volume development for the different price tiers all the way from discount to super premium. And you'll see the year-on-year change is again in our footprint, and this is for all channels, so off-trade and on-trade, everything included. What you actually see is -- and we've covered here the 3 most recent crisis no shocks to the economy that we've been through. So it's the dot-com bubble first in its financial crisis and then it's most recently COVID. And this is just to show you how resilient the beer category actually is. If you look at -- if you combine all the lines, of course, then you have the total volume development. And as you can see, when you look at it, remember also the super premium category, which is the yellow one is by far the smallest one in terms of volume. So if you look at it over all the years, actually, the beer category has been very resilient. It has actually grown every single year during the period. So even through the first 2 financial crisis, we actually saw growth in the beer category. We did not see growth in the last crisis, which is COVID. And that is because COVID was different from a normal financial crisis in the sense that we lost a lot of consumption occasions, on-trade closed down. A lot of social locations disappeared, which also meant that consumption of beer in that period went down, but we see that it's rebounding now and it's coming back ahead of -- back to 2019 levels and ahead again. So we are seeing that we are rebounding back to previous trends also. So with this chart in mind, there's definitely a lot to be optimistic about in terms of the beer category when you look at how resilient it is from a volume perspective. But also when you look at the premiumization trends because if you look at the blue line and the yellow line, they have basically been growing over all the years. And even though we saw on the yellow line, which is super premium dipping during the financial crisis you also see that in the next 2 years, we've actually already caught up what it lost during the financial crisis. So generally, the premiumization trends, when we look at it for a full strategic period, they are very robust, and they are at least in the data that we have, we cannot see any bigger concern for why that wouldn't be the case going forward. In the current crisis, we are not really also seeing with their limited signs of down trading now so we -- it's very early, so -- but we don't see anything yet in the data that suggests that it will be very different from this. But of course, it's still early days also. Then just again a couple of reminders on premium because premium will be a theme that you'll hear that is very recurring in everything you hear on the commercial side today because premium really is the biggest growth lever that we see in our business, 25% of the total beer market is actually -- from a volume perspective, is premium, 36% in value, as you saw, 65%, so almost 2/3 of the growth in our footprint is going to come from premium in our estimate in the strategy period. And a surprising fact might be that actually 90% of that premium growth is coming from more accessible beer styles like Lager. So this is not driven by an explosion of craft and very difficult, accessible beer styles. It's actually driven by consumers simply trading up, either in lager or beer styles that are very close to lager. Then one more point also in terms of what we're seeing, which is also good news to us is that we're also seeing very strong growth in AFB, but also in what we call beyond beer. So we see that indulgence and experience, consumers and simply they're looking for more varied taste experiences. So we see, for instance, the demand for fruit and sweet variants whether it's within beer or outside of beer is increasing a lot. We also see a big focus on health and wellness. It's also driven by different lifestyles. So people are still interested in having beer experiences, but maybe without the alcohol at different point in times. And then we see a lot of consumers looking for convenience, they're looking for choice based on also having changed the lifestyle. So when we look forward, we are basically looking at an AFB CAGR also in high territory. So 6% is what we've seen in recent years. And when we look at beyond beer, actually been growing 8%. So also things that are underpinning that those are interesting growth areas. So when we then look at our portfolio choices, we have made a choice on these 4. So stepping up in premium stepping up in premium. And the reason why we call it stepping up in premium is because there's tailwinds in the sense that the market is growing, but we have a gap to fair share still. So we are below fair share in premium. So we have some catch-up to do on this, which is obviously good news for us because we have 2 growth opportunities. One is to catch up on market share. The other one is to grow with the market. And here, it's really all about international premium brands, but also local premium brands. We also have strengthened our mainstream core. Here's a lot about doing more of the same. We've actually done a lot of good work on this during SAIL'22 so it's about doing a lot more of the same on our mainstream cold beer brands. I'll get back to that. Then it's about accelerating our alcohol-free brews and it's about growing beyond beer. If we just look at the relative contribution in our 3% to 5% growth ambition, then actually half of the growth has to come -- will come from premium so this is really the biggest growth bit that we have. Then we also have a significant contribution still coming from mainstream cold beer, and that's because it is simply such a big category, and there's still some underlying growth, and we also still think we can do a bit better than the market. So that will simply due to the scale of the segment will still deliver good growth for us. And then we have actually significant growth ambitions on alcohol-free brews, but also on beyond beer. Stepping up in premium. So around 25% of our beer revenue today is from premium. Premium is a different definition from what we are used to when we've been talking about craft & speciality because with craft & specialty, we had both a more narrow but also a wider definition that what we have now because, for instance, we included Somersby in craft & specialty and then we excluded some of the local premium brands. So now we are more -- we're going with a more clean definition where we're saying if it's not beer, it's in beyond beer. So Somersby and Garage, you'll find in beyond beer. If it is beer, but above that price index 120 roughly. And again, it will differ a little bit in a few markets. But if it's that, then it is in premium. And with that, we have around 25% of our revenue in premium. And you saw that in our market footprint, around 36% of the market value sits here. So there's obviously a pretty significant gap to close for us. And that we will do via 3 main levers. One is accelerating what we call super premium. So within super premium, we have the Blanc as our biggest growth assets. So we have a lot of belief in really scaling block. As Cees also said, when we went into SAIL'22, we were more in exploration mode around what this portfolio would be we had an even weaker -- much weaker footprint in premium back then. And we also didn't really have many proven growth assets. We think we have that now. So with Blanc, it's really about scaling it and scaling it everywhere. The same will be -- it's a little bit different story on Brooklyn because Brooklyn, we are a little bit more exploring, but we think we found a very good growth model in Brooklyn now, and we're seeing good initial proof points on that, and Steve will also come back to that. Then we have our premium international lagers, which is what you know, Carlsberg and Tuborg. We also have good growth ambitions for both of those brands. And then we have a big area of local premium, which is actually a significant part of the premium market is still local premium brands. So in every market you go in addition to international premium brands, you will also see local premium brands. So for us, in our portfolio, this is also a major priority to identify what is that local premium bid. Then what I'll do now is I'll hand over to Steve, who will talk you through Blanc and Brooklyn. Blanc being the must-do scale initiative that we have. And then Brooklyn being the brand where we have a lot of hope that we have cracked a growth model now that can actually deliver great growth on this brand also going forward. So here you go, Steve?
Steve Stringer
executiveThank you, Soren. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to be taking you through 2 of our kind of premium brands. The first one being Brooklyn, and this is our accelerator in our step-up to premium growth agenda. Just starting with really a simple vision for Brooklyn. And really, this is just to become a leader in the international craft sector -- section. And this is going to be built on accessible taste-led brews for the many. And most importantly, we'll be sourcing from the biggest value pool in the category, which is premium lager. But just looking back to why we acquired the rights to this amazing brand. In large part, it was true to the great stories and the great assets that Steve Hindi and his team had built and all the great activations that are going on in markets. There was also a huge back -- there is a huge back catalog of brews built by Garrett Oliver. But when we actually start to lift a box or open the marketing box of this amazing brand, it was actually a little bit on the empty side. So we've got all this kind of latent equity. So what have we done to scale this and to access all that value in premium lager? Well, quite simply, we've just prioritized. We built a clear brand architecture around a few scale brews. We have taken a unified approach to building the brand proposition and we crafted a creative platform of which we have built freshly consistent brand experiences. And then we've also gone back and looked at what the Brooklyn team have done, and we've codified all the great work that they have done. So if we just kind of look at our simplified approach to the brews. We've got the new Pilsner and the updated lager. And this is how we're looking to win and target premium lager drinkers. We're also looking to bring in sessionable brews to build a winning share with the growing IPA section. And we're focusing on a taste led or a superior taste-led approach to build a winning position in AFBs. What we'd like to do now is just kind of give you a quick kind of run-through of the approach that we took and how we've kind of reinvigorated this Brooklyn icon, how we've taken it from what Steve Hindi and his team have built and how we've kind of created this unique and unified approach to the brand. [Presentation]
Steve Stringer
executiveOkay. So that's how we renovated all the variants of the icon that we've brought. And this is our scalable play into premium lager. And really, it's Brooklyn's view on Pilsner and what we've done is we've taken, it's layers of clean malts and it's bright citrusy hops and that's kind of culminates in this beautiful fresh, clean finish. And hopefully, as some of you were able to taste a few of those kind of democratic clean, crisp, fresh Pilsners last night, amongst some of the other amazing brands. As I said, when we open the box, it was live on the empty side and brand experience, this was effectively what we've had to build from scratch and what we've done is we've kind of invested heavily in building hopefully, what you'll see is a very kind of stand-out brand visual identity system, which we have built across all the touch points across all channels for both consumer and shopper and customer. And what we've done is we've built a campaign for all of the variants, where we've got in excess of 200 assets across each of the variants which across kind of e-com, social e-com as well as all the kind of traditional media touch points. This should show us the 32nd film which you may have seen earlier. [Presentation]
Steve Stringer
executiveSo what we're trying to do across all the variants is just bring to life the Brooklyn, whether that be the brewer the brand and most importantly, the people. And we're just trying to get across that kind of grit and the energy that is both evident and lives every day in the brewer and in the brand. So that's all the marketing, which sounds all very good. But actually, what's actually happening? Well, at the moment, the early signs are very positive on Brooklyn. As you can see, that's kind of giving us a very strong 44% growth in H1 and that's driven off of 2 things really that we've got that huge investment in the scale play, which we've talked about, which is looking at how we can get a disproportionate amount of revenue from that largest segment -- that largest profit pool in the industry being in lager. And we can see there in the U.K., they're driving heavily on Brooklyn, and that has been predominantly in the off- sorry, in the on-trade. And we've got some lovely stats coming out. Some of the pubs in London are selling up to 1,000 points a week in Pilsner. That's -- I think that's a testament to the success of that Democratic brew winning [amp]. And we're just launching this month in all the modern off-trade. So there's a lot of distribution coming online in the U.K. Likewise, with Poland, they're the kind of the newest member of the family that's coming in. In the last 2 months, they've actually just opened 9,000 distribution points in modern and traditional off-trade. So they're really getting behind our scale play. In France they've got the full portfolio, and they're just continually building year-on-year strong double-digit growth through new launches and huge media support. And likewise, we shouldn't forget our oldest -- it's actually the first market that introduced Brooklyn in the Carlsberg franchise. And again, considering it's been this long, we're still getting very strong double-digit growth. And again, that's a testament to the reinvigoration of the brews. So just wrapping on Brooklyn. Hopefully, you saw the lady in that. I will leave the last word to her in a very visual way on Brooklyn before we step in to Blanc. Obviously, she's covered to keep a modesty at bay. Blanc, so moving from Brooklyn and a lovely lady to what we call internally as our premiumization engine. And it's the premiumization engine for one simple fact. Every year, year-on-year, we get value growth despite the kind of challenges that we've had in COVID that everyone is more -- is very, very aware of, we're still seeing some amazing growth. But really, what's kind of giving us the confidence which Cees talked about and Soren alluded to, what's allowing us to kind of take this amazing brand through to more and more markets is the equity that underlies this value growth, and it's growing across all key markets. And that's actually allowing us to double the top line volume growth every 2 to 3 years. So I'm now going to take you through, again, similar to Brooklyn, a very simplified, very kind of focused approach. We have 5 growth pillars, which we apply in every single market that we go to. Again, it's the repeatable models that Cees alluded to early. The first one is our amazing brew. It's the brew that just drives preference wherever it goes. And really, the playfulness of the brew where it meets the elegance, this is our elegant take on a Belgium wit. And as you can see, when it comes to preference, and this is global competitors, I'm not going to name them, but you can -- you're probably all very familiar with them. The preference just stands out. And when you put brand in hand and liquid on lips, this brand is a winner. And talking of kind of brand in hand, probably arguably almost distinctive brand asset. And when you align this with Pillar 1 and you put that brand in hand and liquid on lips, we get a huge translation from trial to usage up to 75% conversion from trial to usage. So really, when you've got all that equity, you've got these distinctive brand assets and you put liquid on lips and brand in hands, you get the conversion. You can see why we're so strongly believing this is a repeatable commercial model. Our third pillar, which is our creative platform, Good Taste With A Twist. We're now in our second articulation, we're just rolling out to all the markets of the Good Taste With A Twist campaign. And we've got hundreds of assets which are evident across all the different touch points, whether they be traditional touch points, e-com touch points, social or when we're in Asia, obviously, social e-com. So we're looking to all the investment we have in social. We're trying to drive it through to transactions. And if we just now just look at the 30-second TVC that will play. [Presentation]
Steve Stringer
executiveSo Rue 1664 is our brand world, where a good taste for the twist comes to life. You'll only see playfully elegant twists happening just to make you think a little bit more and obviously try and create that kind of affinity standout cut through. In terms of our fourth pillar, this really is around just driving kind of consistency across all of our touch points. So we're bringing that kind of brand experience, whether it's shoppers, for consumers. And again, we're just trying to drive a very freshly consistent articulation and it doesn't matter what the touch points are. We just want to make sure that brand creative platform, the essence of the brand is coming through. So this is for literally all of our consumers across all touch points, but we're also kind of building on the fifth one, which is our key opinion leaders, which is our experiential platforms. And here, what we're looking to do is how do we build affinity and usage with those key opinion leaders because if people see the brand has a duration affinity and usage for those, then the many will follow. So it's seriously important that we keep kind of building that affinity through our key opinion leaders. So whether that's kind of innovative fashion shows across some of our European capitals or whether it's a 1,000 square meter atelier brand home pop-ups in Shanghai, or Paris or whether it's design and artist collaborations with celebrity chefs or celebrity artists. And we always try and make sure that leads into a limited edition pack that will actually turn into transactions on either on shelf or on e-com and again, we will be using our brand ambassadors to sell those through. So in summary, whatever we do with Blanc is always done in a very playfully elegant fashion, and we look to continue building the repeatable model with Blanc. Thank you . Merci. [ My third pal ]
Søren Brinck
executiveThank you, Steve. So I hope that this also does demonstrate that from a brand asset perspective, we are in a very different place today than we were actually at the outset of SAIL'22. So we really have a very strong belief that we have excellent assets that we can also scale which is also why we actually have an ambition to close the gap to premium or to fair share within premium. If we then go into core -- mainstream core beer, this is still a very large part of our business, right, with also, of course, us under-indexing in premium. This is 70% of the business. This has been -- this is a part of a business that is also very -- is a big strength for us, we believe. This gives us a very local routing, a very local footing in all of our markets. It gets us close -- very close to consumers because we have brands with a long history and a long heritage in a number of markets. This, again, remember that from the first one, we believe that this part of the market will grow low single digits or around 1%. What we want to do in this area is really to do 3 main things: One, is really continue to drive the equity on each of the brands. Then also look at can we exploit more occasions for these brands. And then it's all about what we call BPPC. So that's brand price pack and channel architecture. So that is really what we call value management, others called revenue management, but that is how do we -- by playing around with prices and pack sizes, how do we continuously move up the value sold per liter on our brands. So that's 1 big lever. Then another big lever is that within this area, there's also an opportunity for premiumizing local brands, so having line extensions that actually add value so that actually meet new consumer needs. So that is also a major focus for us launching that. And then the last but not least, this is about execution excellence also. These brands are when you go to market, these are the ones that will take up a lot of the space when you're in outlets. So these really need to be executed well. And I'll get a little bit back to later how we are thinking and driving execution, but this is absolutely a key lever for these brands. So on the localness, on equity, I mean the starting point that has been presented to you before also is that we are working with what we call demand spaces. So demand spaces basically represent different consumer segments that are basically the motivations that what drives consumers into the beer category. And we choose for each of our brands, the demand space that we position our brands against to make sure that we have a very clear and distinct positioning in the market, so we can create a very clear identity for the brand. Part of what we then also do, especially on the local -- on the mainstream core beer brands is we make sure that they are very connected to also the local consumers. And here are 3 examples of that. There's a Dali in China that where it's really around owning certain locations. There's Huda, which is all about the pride of being from central. So it's all about Huda actually coming from the central part of Vietnam connecting with the consumers in that part of the country. And then there's Chongqing, which is really about recruitment of young consumers, especially through relevant music activation. Then on other examples of -- on the equity side on brand relevance, there's also an example from Bulgaria with Pirinsko, which is the leading brand in Bulgaria where the positioning is it's all about refreshment. So it's about being fresh from the mountains. And in Bulgaria, the team then launched an unpasteurized beer, which was even fresher than the original beer, also very successfully. And there's another example on brand. So there was doubling down on the freshness, you can say. And then there's another example from Germany, which is the Astra brand, which has a very distinct and clear profile that is very appealing to especially younger consumer groups. If you're outside of the core, territory of Hamburg. There's a lot of younger consumers that find the rebellious nature of Astra and everything that's associated to it also becomes -- comes from San Pauli is very attractive. So another example on how to increase the brand relevance. And then a couple of examples on premium brews. Premium brews is something that we investigating in a number of markets, and we're also looking for what are some repeatable models. So are there things in the premiumization trends that can travel across markets, and we definitely are starting to see that. So we're also working with how we can codify that. Part of it could be, for instance, the example from Germany -- from Switzerland in feldschlösschen which is a more premium darker variant that plays with the heritage of the brand. And then you also have an example from Poland, which is more moving into a more accessible territory in terms of lower ABV on Zatec, the brand, the Czech origin brand in Poland. On AFB, we basically, in a lot of our markets in Western Europe, in 6 out of 9 we're the market leader in more or less all of our markets, we tend to overtrade in AFB versus our beer market share average. And if not, then that is certainly the ambition. But we are very strong generally in AFB, especially in Western Europe, but also in Central and Eastern Europe. And in -- for alcohol-free beers, we really have 3 main growth levers that we're following. One is winning with beer. So that is basically for people that are looking for beer, but just without the alcohol. So you're looking for the same type of drinking experience in typically also the same locations, but you just don't want the alcohol. So on that, what we're doing there is making sure that on all of the local, both on the core mainstream brands that we actually have AFB propositions, but we're also rolling out the alcohol-free propositions on our premium brands. Then there's beer mixes. That's a little bit different because those are typically more refreshment related than the beer -- than the beer ones. So here it's mainly about Radler, so these juice mixes in beer, which is also showing very strong growth in a number of markets. Originally, of course, Radler came out as lower ABV, but in recent years, also they have come out at 0 versions and they are showing very strong growth. And this is also -- this part of the segment is where we see that there's some [ infection ] also with the soft drinks category. So it's also recruiting consumers into beer from outside of beer. And then the last one is we have a few examples also on stand-alone brands where we have some very good cases. For instance, on Tourtel Twist in France that Graham will come back to later. It's not a strategy for us as such to launch stand-alone brands across all markets. But if there are unique opportunities to do so, where we have existing brand assets that we can leverage, then we'll do it. But we don't have a plan to launch more brands. We believe that we have a wide enough portfolio to actually cover all the different consumer needs. A few examples on AFB also. And just to give you an idea also that this is also from a value perspective, very interesting. Of course, because there's no excise duty paid on alcohol-free variance. The way we define alcohol-free brews is basically 0.0 and 0.5. So it's 0.5 and below. And this is also the typical definition by the authorities in terms of when you pay excise tax or not. So if you take Carlsberg as an example, rolling out in multiple markets, growing revenue this year, 25%, and it's at 1.6x the average of the brand in terms of net revenue per hectoliter. So it's a 60% premiumization, you can say on the net revenue per hectoliters of our value, not necessarily on the consumer price because, again, there's the tax benefit. On Brooklyn, also very strong growth on the AFB variance. And here, Brooklyn, as a brand, actually delivers 3x the average of all of our AFBs. So in our AFB pyramid, you will have the core mainstream typically at the bottom, then you have international brands in the middle, and then you'll have brands like Brooklyn at the top of the pyramid from a net revenue per hectoliter perspective, but 3x the average. So very strong premiumization also. And then we are actually also launching -- have launched 0.0 on Somersby which is also showing very good growth and this, again, is also pulling more consumers into the brand and is representing up to 10% of the brand already. In grow beyond beer, this is around -- this is not -- this is a segment that's roughly the same size for us today as AFB. So it's around 5% of our revenue. So 5% of the beer revenue is what we call beyond beer. We have launched Somersby in many markets. So it's in more than 70 markets now. And on Somersby we're in a position where we are in the same place as we are on Blanc. This is really a proven asset that works everywhere where we do it well. We see great results coming from Somersby. So priority #1 in this for us is really to scale Somersby fully. We still have more opportunities, especially in Asia, Joao will also talk about that later. But definitely, Asia is the biggest opportunity. We have rolled out Somersby most markets. In other places, we still see more growth opportunities for Somersby outside of Asia also, but Asia is a big opportunity. Priority # 2, is Garage. Garage is more of an RTD-type brand and actually started out originally in Finland, but then also in Eastern Europe and has had very strong success and is being rolled out in CE now and with very encouraging results has also moved into Poland recently. So this is a brand that we also think has potential to be scaled. And then priority #3, which is actually a lower priority versus the 2 other ones. The 2 other ones, 1 is a proven brand asset. The other 1 is an asset that we have seen very strong results coming out of all the first markets and we think we can scale. The third 1 is more exploration. So that is more around looking at, for instance, pre-mixed cocktails, and it's that something that we -- that is attractive for us. So here, we are more in a test mode than we are necessarily in a scaling mode. So again, Somersby very strong results already. Double-digit growth in more than 15 markets. We still have a lot of markets that are onboarding and the potential in Asia. AFB, more than 10% of the brand already and then Garage in the market, 30% growth across all markets. And in all the markets, it's been launched. It has had very, very strong initial results. So definitely also an interesting brand to scale. And then pre-mixed cocktails is one of the things that we're exploring both on draft and potentially also in packaged, but it is much more exploratory. The focus is really on the 3 ones on the left. Or the 2 ones, Somersby and Garage. Okay. So there was basically a walk-through of the portfolio choices to talk through about our execution levers. Then the first big one we have is basically the programs we're running for sales. Program #1 is what we call FIT. FIT stands for focus, implement, track. Focus is really about saying when you have a very, very channel landscape out there and also our portfolio, of course, over time, has grown in complexity. What is the right assortment, pricing and activation that we should actually do in each of the channels. So this is defining what we call the picture of success or Picos for short. That is really what focus is all about. That is about sales in our cross-functional effort between sales and marketing and really nailing that both from a brand perspective, but also from a profit perspective, what is the right assortment and how do we merchandise it in store? And how do we activate it also. So that's focus, then implementing is getting it out. That's basically getting all of our salespeople to do it every day, getting them trained, getting -- making sure that they have everything available and tracking is really all the performance management routines that are around reporting it and then also putting it into weekly and monthly operating routines that are all about focusing on whether we are driving the right activities to deliver the outputs. So this is all -- this is really what FIT is all about on the left-hand side. And what we're doing there also is also digitizing it. So using, for instance, image recognition to make sure that we collect data on execution in the outlets that we can then also leverage from an analytics perspective. And can also put in front of the sales rep real time, so they protect pictures and they also get immediate feedback on what their sales priorities are in that outlet. On value management, value management is really about pricing. It's about promo effectiveness, it's about trade terms and then it's about our assortment. So these are really the 4 big things that are in. Part of it is captured in what we call BPPC, which then again is translated into a picture of success at the end of the day. So value management, that's really a capability that's not widespread in the organization. This is a smaller population of people that really need to be skilled in this because it's definitely -- is your key account teams in both off- and on-trade, but then it's also the specialists that are supporting them, whether it's the value management team or people in marketing that need to have good knowledge on this. So this is a capability program targeted at that population to make sure that we lift the level, but also that we roll out the right tools whether it's on the elasticity modeling on the pricing side, whether it's promo effectiveness, whether it's assortment optimization tools or whether it's also our approach to making sure that we have proper counterparts and a good pay-for-performance structure in place for our trade terms. So this is again an area where, obviously, a lot of things are happening now around data and analytics. So an area where there's a lot of ongoing development in terms of what we are actually able to do with data, so also an area where we are exploring quite a few new things in terms of how we use data analytics better to actually drive also our decision-making to the next level in this area. Third one is around customer management, because this is absolutely a key one in a lot of our markets where we have big modern off-trade, either it is established or it's growing. So this is really around how do we manage the customer discussions in a good and constructive way. So we also get our -- both our brand priorities, but also our financial priorities implemented together with the customers and always with a win-win mindset. So how do we have category discussions with the customers where we end up with a win-win solutions for both of us? So this is also very much a capability program. So it's set ways of working. How do you do the routines for when you set up the plans with the key accounts every year, and how do you also negotiate and make sure that you build joint plans with the customers? Then one big initiative we also have is on digitizing our route to market. So we're launching -- we've launched Carl's Shop. We are now present in 11 markets with Carl's Shop. Carl's Shop for us started out in Western Europe. So it is mainly in Western Europe, it's targeted on trade because we don't really have traditional trade in Western Europe. So I know that maybe when you talk to others, they initially started out in markets where there was a lot of traditional trade. We really started out in markets that were very heavy on on-trade, so that has been the initial focus. And now we're moving into Asia, where we are adding on markets also that cover more channels, so it covers both on trade but also traditional trade, and typically by distributors. In Europe, when we started out, we also started out with DSD markets. So current numbers are -- that we have around -- it's basically if you look at our e-commerce, we have -- there are 3 directions within e-commerce. You have business-to-business e-commerce, that is Carl's Shop. You have business to consumer, that's where we go through a retailer to reach an end consumer, so they could either be pure players or brick-and-mortar players. And then you have direct to consumers. We have in SAIL'27, we have decided not to focus on direct to consumers. We're putting all of our bets on business-to-business and then also on business to consumer. This is the business-to-business one. So right now, we have around 40,000 active users, so that's actually users that are buying via the platform in on-trade. And then we have around 15 minutes of engagement per week. It roughly breaks into -- we would probably want to get that above 20 minutes. That's where best practice currently is, so this is also an area that we are all the time learning and developing. This is not a bad number, but it's not where best-in-class is still, so we want to push it up. This actually breaks in 2. You have the customers that are coming in spending only 4 minutes per week to quickly get that purchase done. And then you have others that are sitting and browsing on a Saturday evening. Which is good for us, because it typically means that opens up for more opportunities for cross-selling new categories into customers. We have a conversion rate of around 38%. That means that from people that actually sign up to actually becoming active ongoing buyers. And again, here also in a good place, but also a number that we think we can get up to best in class, which will be around 50% for this. If you look at the results, I think the 2 numbers in the middle here on the right are probably the key ones. We do see that when we move someone from an offline ordering, which typically means telesales or manual or order taking by sales reps, we see a 2% volume uplift when we look at against the control group and we see actually a 5% premiumization also. So we definitely see that this is a great tool for both actually driving overall business but also for premiumizing our business further. And we have good satisfaction scores actually on -- with -- above 4 out of 5. If we look at what we're doing on Carl's Shop for '22 and beyond, we are expanding to more markets. So we'll be rolling out to even more markets and also outside of Europe next year. And then there's a big focus on rolling out loyalty programs. We have tested it in a few markets now. It's working very well, so this will drive more engagement. So this is one of the big levers to move this around 15 minutes with the engagement up to around 20. And then we're also looking at how can we take the next step on Carl's Shop in terms of adding more capabilities, and one thing that we're looking at is marketplace functionality. So that's also opening up the platform for others and our own brands and products. And that's, of course, especially relevant in wholesaler markets. And then we're also looking at how can we, again, also apply more analytics to drive sales? And the last thing is that we are connecting also Carl's Shop even better into the rest of the digital tools that we have also on field execution and in other parts of the business. So this is also an initiative that is getting good traction and is supporting generally the execution objectives that we have. Right. So key messages, again, for me. Yes, the beer category is large. It is a profitable category. It is very resilient, and actually, the premiumization that we think is going to take place. When we look at the back data, it's quite a robust trend in spite of adverse economic downturns. Then, we have made 4 clear portfolio choices. And within each of those, we have zoomed down on a few things that we want to really double down on and scale. So it is really -- in premium, it is really about scaling now. It is really scaling what we know is proven. In co-mainstream, it's more of the same, to be honest. I mean, we actually -- we've done very well on co-mainstream in the last years. So it's really doing more of the same, because that has worked very well. In AFP, it is more about unleashing the potential. We think there's a lot more to go for than what we've seen so far also because we think it can expand even further. And then in beyond beer, it's really also about scaling, especially Somersby and Garage, which we think will deliver also accelerated growth. And then on the execution side, we have also identified a few very clear programs where we will also roll them out, and they're very clearly defined. We have clear technologies that will support them, and there's a lot of focus on really getting them embedded through regular routines and training, of course, of the relevant population that it's targeting. So that's it.
Unknown Executive
executiveGood morning, everybody. People are key assets for any organization, so also for ours. In today's continuously changing business world, it's human assets, not the fixed or tangible assets, that differentiate an organization from its competitors. Our people are our ambassadors. They are the most essential contributors towards profits and shareholder value. They are the face of Carlsberg, and they are driven by performance and are led by our purpose. I would like to briefly share some insights on our people priorities, how we engage our employees and our leaders, reward and develop them. And how we see diversity, equity and inclusion as a core element of Carlsberg's culture and also an integral part of the SAIL'27 strategy. Under the umbrella of our strategic HR framework, the leadership expectations, we identified emerging internal and external themes that are increasingly relevant to Carlsberg. Leadership expectations encapsulates our HR and people priorities, and they help clarify what Carlsberg expects of all its leaders across the group. As a leader, regardless of where you are in the world, we ask them to reflect on what you can do differently to help drive the 3 core elements of the leadership principles in the Carlsberg Group: Drive high performance, build healthy and thriving organizations, and develop our people. High performance in itself will never create a high-performance culture. We want and we believe that these 3 elements of high performance, its organization and the development of the people will create a successful high-performance culture. These expectations have several building blocks. DE&I, I will come to that. Talent development, well-being, smart objective setting and follow-up, continuous feedback, performance and reward, and various other elements like safety and compliance. It's an anchor for our leaders, but at the same time, it evolves and matures as we, as an organization, move ahead. This has been the basis for the people agenda under SAIL'27. Brewing for a better day or tomorrow. Our purpose was and is an integral element in everything we do. It illustrates how we focus on betterment, how we are curious and innovative, aim to give back to society and communities, and how diverse as we are as a company and our colleagues. It also underlines how we are made up from many different cultures, markets, brands and that we jointly share a strong pride in everything we do. Lastly but not unimportantly, it also emphasizes performance. Going the extra mile commercially and financially is part of our core. And that, again, we believe, is part of the Carlsberg winning culture and our performance culture. Our purpose is illustrated and explained in our employer value proposition, which you see on the screen. It's our promise to our employees, current and future, internal and external, and it is the backbone of our leadership expectations. When we look a little bit further and we go in depth and look at our performance, we also see that rewards, recognition and celebration are part of these expectations. And over the years, we have been successful and congruent in making congruent global incentive plans that are cascading the strategy and are driving our performance. The annual incentive plan ensures aligned targets, both financially and strategic, cascaded from the global strategy via business plans right through to our colleagues who execute the plans. The SDI applies for all employees. To reinforce that, this alignment, we also have a global long-term incentive plan which connects to global top 150, including all MDs, leadership teams of the largest markets, and our group and regional management around the world, all around 4 core global KPIs. I would like to share an example of how we've been able to integrate diversity, talent development and also strategy building. As part of SAIL'27, we identified together with 138 young strategists from all over the world to get bottom-up feedback on what is today the SAIL'27 strategy. This was then overseen by the extended leadership colleagues of these strategists, so it was not just a top-down or the top-only leadership and group strategy that built SAIL'27, it has been truly an integrating, diverse perspective with now, as we see, a broad ownership and broad stakeholder management. We also see that it has helped and shaped the development of our strategic thinking, and strategic thinking of our employees. It has created new and engaging networks, and it has also, for everybody who was participating, a much more fuller insight in the full value chain of the company. So this learning exercise is one of the examples of how we want to nourish and use our talents not only in their daily work, but to bring them together to build and grow the company. And with that, that is a nice bridge for me to talk with you about a cornerstone of the culture and our commitment to DE&I, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, which sits at the heart of our purpose. It's part of our founder's mentality and it sits as a cornerstone in SAIL'27. I said, it's in our DNA. We work in more than 150 markets. We own operations in more than 30 countries. We work roughly with 40,000 passionate colleagues. We have a strong local and group presence, local routes, and we are stronger together, global strength. Equity asked us to acknowledge that everyone has different needs, experiences and opportunities. Equality is about sameness, equity is about fairness. Creating a diverse and inclusive workforce is a proven catalyst for delivering increased company performance, innovation and actually exceeding financial targets and achieving better business outcomes. We want our employees to belong, to feel safe and treated fairly at work, and overall to bring their own best version to work. Our approach to DE&I is anchored, of course, in all the things that we do in a strategic, programmatic approach. And that's why if you can see in this 4-dimensional road map, it illustrates that we acknowledge that one will not work without the other. Focusing only on one element will not bring us the success that we're looking for. As you will see from the left, business priority. It means that we hold ourselves accountable. It is a leader-led initiative and accountability. We use assessment, surveys and reporting on our progress. When we talk about diverse representation, this year, we introduced time-bound targets, and I will come to that in a minute. We will achieve our ambition by focusing on equity, fairness and transparency in our processes. We have to think about promotion, recruitment, development, and by continuing to nurture the inclusive culture that our employees confirm we have. That also means that we have now requirements to the gender split in shortlisting for vacancies and in our appointment and recruitment panels. We apply different tools to de-bias job ads as well as the interview process. We train leaders in building an inclusive environment, build experience profiles for career development, and we focus on the sponsorship and sponsorship programs of female talents. On equity, we aim to build fair and transparent policies that accommodate the personal life choices of different employee groups, flexible workplace guidelines, parental leave. We educate and train leaders to foster an equitable environment and take consequences when needed. As part of this, we have implemented a zero tolerance for discrimination and any form of harassment. On inclusive culture, the fourth pillar, inclusion is at the core. To have an inclusive culture, you must have inclusive leaders. Therefore, we train, educate and coach our senior leaders in the meaning and the implementation of inclusion in a lot of different ways. But the journey started -- the intensified journey started in 2021 when we implemented what we call the pyramid, which is a measurement tool to actually understand where we are today in terms of gender parity. To understand more deeply within our senior management, Bands 1 to 7, what is the promotion rate and the outflow attrition rates of males and females in Carlsberg. This tool, which is currently automated, is available for every market, every region, every function at global level, and it has become a core instrument to steer our ambition. Then the next year, '22, as part of SAIL'27, we have set time-bound targets, as mentioned. Research and best practice insights indicate that it's a high impact and effective way to drive change. It also allows us as a performance-driven company to measure progress and holding leaders accountable. Having said that, it's also essential that the targets are realistic and achievable. Besides this, targets are a way of helping us to mature and improve our people processes. Our long-term ambition remains unchanged. We aim for at least 40% women in our senior leadership bands. From '22, we have set a target of 30% by 2024 and 35% by '27, and these are global targets. Next to that, from '23, we will see, due to implementation of new Danish legislation, that there will be a new requirement to be set and a target to be set for the top 2 leadership players in Danish companies. And we are awaiting details on what that will mean, and that will be shared in '23. As you hopefully can see and also will understand, Carlsberg is on a journey if it comes to diversity, equity and inclusion. However, there are no quick fixes when it comes to this topic. It takes time and effort, commitment and perseverance. Carlsberg doesn't claim to be leading edge in DE&I, but we are strongly committed to this agenda and are challenging our sales to do better today and tomorrow. And we learn from what we see outside and we engage our people, the total population, behind the ambition of DE&I and our people agenda. And it has to be said, with our programmatic approach and the change management tools that we have, we do see the first and promising results coming forward in the appointments that we do, in the engagement scores that we see, and the awareness that we want to create amongst our people and the engagement. Thank you very much. That's it.
Unknown Executive
executiveHello, everyone. So what I will present after Joris's great presentation on people and leadership expectations is the ESG agenda. It is also my pleasure to, for the first time, stand in front of you and present our new ESG program, Together Towards ZERO and Beyond, which was launched in connection with the half year results just earlier in August this year. So basically, today, I will focus on 2 main things. First of all, just to introduce the program. And secondly, to show you concrete examples of how our colleagues across the world in different functions across cultures are implementing the ESG agenda, striving towards our targets every single day. But to begin with, I will start with introducing the program and really where it's coming from, and why we have created Together Towards ZERO and Beyond. So first of all, all the things we do within ESG is based on our material issues. Meaning, where do we have the biggest negative impact and where can we have the biggest positive? A lot of you in the room have been challenging us over the past months and years on our agenda. And it's really great to see the level of knowledge among both investors, analysts and others on this topic. And basically, as long as we maintain a focus on material issues, we believe we are making the right actions. We have the right targets that will both satisfy you, as a stakeholder audience, but also the much wider array of different stakeholders that we are facing as a business operating in the world. Secondly, our ESG program, as you can also see from today, is integrated into SAIL'27. It's a part of how we do business strategy. It is not standing on the side; it is really something that we're looking at as an integrated activity in everything we do. And lastly, we are also, of course, looking to the world's most material issues, which is basically how I like to view the sustainable development goals, which is basically an overview of all those issues and topics that we, as people on this planet, really need to solve by the year 2030. So our strategy and our material issues are also aligned to those material issues that are outlined in the sustainable development goals. So this is the really starting point for our program, but I'll also say that it is building, as the name also suggests, on our previous program, Together Towards ZERO, which I hope all of you are familiar with. This was launched in 2017. It was part of the previous strategy, SAIL'22. And basically, we are really happy that we have been able to deliver on our promises in Together Towards ZERO. We have seen a lot of engagement across the world from our colleagues in really helping us achieve, I would say, quite strong results across our ZEROs. So a 40% relative carbon reduction since our baseline year in 2015 is really a really great step on the way towards 0 carbon footprint. Very significant reduction in water consumption across our breweries led by our colleagues in supply chain is really also a monumental effort. The growth in alcohol-free brews, which we do not see as the key driver in our sustainability program, but more as an amazing product development opportunity that also has an aspect of responsibility. Now, you can have a beer at the Friday bar and still drive home as long as it's an alcohol-free brew. We can help eliminate some of those risk situations by offering the consumers wider choice. As you have seen in the previous presentations, we have seen amazing growth within this category, which is also helping us alleviate some of those risk situations. And lastly, in terms of safety, we have seen some good progress on reductions of our lost time accidents, but there is still much more work to do within this space in order to achieve a zero accident culture. So our new program is definitely building on Together Towards ZERO and the strong progress we made since 2017 alongside the rest of the business performance. In Together Towards ZERO and Beyond, one of the news -- or one of the kind of news where the aspect is definitely the addition of 2 new zeros that I'll also introduce in a bit more detail. But I would just like to highlight the importance of the 2 new zeros. So firstly, zero farming footprint, and secondly, the zero packaging waste. Basically, these 2 aspects are absolutely key in achieving our new NetZero 2040 target and our overall ambition of achieving zero carbon footprint. And the reason for that is really listed in the value chain slide, you can see here, which shows you that approximately 65% of our total Scope 3 emissions comes from those 2 aspects. This also tells you that without concrete action within these 2 areas, towards 2030 and 2040, we will not be able to truly decarbonize our value chain in cooperation with our suppliers and our colleagues. So this is one of the important points in our new program, that these 2 areas are singled out more. We have more specific time-bound targets, and obviously, also actions to support the progress within this. But now, I would just like to show you a short video. Instead of me introducing everything, then now I will let you see a short 3-minute introduction to Together Towards ZERO and Beyond. [Presentation]
Unknown Executive
executiveSo this is the overall program, and these are some of the key targets that we're aiming towards in 2030 and in 2040. Today, I will not be going through all of the areas in detail as I was not permitted to have 1.5 hours to present to you or more. So luckily, you will only have 20 minutes with me. But what I will be focusing on is really the top part, I'll be focusing on the 6 zeros. Also because Joris, for example, has just been introducing the DE&I agenda and our time-bound targets, so I'll not be spending a lot of time on that today. But basically, what I will do is I will give you the short introduction to the overall targets within each of our areas and give you concrete examples of how we're working towards it from the past that will also inform the future. So when we're looking at zero carbon footprint as an ambition, we have 2 different levels of targets. The targets that are really aimed at our own operations and our breweries, which we have an aim for zero carbon footprint by 2030, and an ambition to source our renewable electricity from sources of additionality. But we also have a target towards our full value chain or what you call Scope 3, for those who are greenhouse gas protocol geeks. However, when we're looking at the concrete actions that we need to do, it is very different within these 2 different aspects. So just to give you some examples, well, first of all, within our breweries, we need to convert them to renewable thermal sources. Like in Finland, where we're using renewable district heating and we have renewable electricity, we're proud to say we have carbon neutral brewery operations in Finland. This is something that you're going to see more of in the coming years as we move towards 2030. Another example of actions that we're going to take and have been taking can be found in Switzerland, where we have purchased and are operating 26 heavy-duty trucks to deliver our bills to our customers and to our consumers. So these might seem like 2 small examples, but basically, these are the types of examples that you're going to see more of. It's in those type of occasions in our logistics operation and our breweries that we are going to be step changing towards zero carbon footprint. In terms of the value chain emissions, they are actually more important to talk about when we are looking at the 2 areas that I alluded to that make up 65% of our total value chain emissions. So basically, when you look at our targets towards 2030 and 2040, of course, within zero farming footprint, there is a very big carbon part in terms of sequestering of carbon into the soils by using regenerative practices. But there is also a lot of other aspects that are very important for this particular area, and that includes improving the biodiversity of the fields and the surroundings where our raw materials are grown but also creating more resilience in our supply chain, which is something that we're seeing encouraging signs of. On fields with regenerative practices, there is higher water retention in the soils, and that higher water retention might give you a better resilience towards years of draught, for example. So these are some of the signs that we're seeing that can really contribute positively both to the bottom line, but also to society and the fight against climate change and the nature crisis that we're seeing. So this is one of the absolute key areas that we're looking to explore. It is also an area that is fairly immature at this point, so there's a lot of work for us to do in defining and implementing this, working with our suppliers to explore how we can make it happen. But we already have some examples of this. In France, where our brand 1664 is really taking the first steps towards regenerative practices and has committed to source 100% of the barley in 1664 in France from sustainable and regenerative sources by 2027. Or in Finland, where Sinebrychoff has been brewing a regeneratively-grown barley or been using that in their Christmas beer. So it is not just ideas and dreams. It is happening, but of course, we need to scale it. We need to find solutions that can be used across markets with our suppliers in the coming years. But a really exciting area, and also an area that our colleagues in marketing can really use to talk about something that is beyond the brew itself, about it being refreshing or great, but we also have a very strong societal aspect that we can use. So zero farming footprint is definitely an area that we're seeing a lot of promise in, but there is also a lot of work to do to achieve our targets. The next area is also new, and this is our target or our aim to achieve zero packaging waste. And within this, we actually have 4 new areas that we've introduced as specific targets. Number one being that we want to make all of our packaging recyclable, reusable or renewable. Number 2, being that we want to really make sure that our bottles are collected, that our bottles and cans are collected in our markets. Something that we're looking to really emphasize by supporting efficient deposit return schemes where this is the right viable market model. Also, we're looking to reduce the amount of virgin fossil-based plastics with 50% against our baseline. And what we will do to achieve this is by introducing more renewable or bio-based material, more recycled material, and in general, lead a reduction of virgin fossil-based plastics in the coming years and replace it with other alternatives. And lastly, in general, driving up the amount of recycled content in our primary packaging, in particular, because this is where we see a very, very big carbon footprint benefit line by basically providing the feedstock for this recycled material from efficient collection systems. And that being able to then be sourced back into our packaging, which again can be a source of resilience in our supply chain, in particular, in years of scarcity of packaging or materials. So that is the overall ambition within zero packaging waste. And as said, zero-farming footprint and zero packaging waste are really 2 key levers in our journey towards a net zero value chain by 2040. When you're looking at specific examples, we both have kind of breakthrough innovative examples like the fiber bottle. And you might have seen that in this summer, we have been testing the fiber bottle in a very small research scale, so only 8,000 bottles across 7 different European markets. But nonetheless, it has really helped us to get some consumer insights as to how much do the consumers actually like this bottle. It is totally different. It is a very different occasion. It's a very different experience to have your lips against a fiber bottle. So really, getting some experience on this and seeing whether there is consumer acceptance has been a truly exciting journey over this summer. There is still a long way to go to commercialize this bottle, and last night, a lot of you had questions on this. And basically, we are relying on innovations within our value chain in order to make it happen. So for example, our partner [ Avantium ], who is building a plant to create an inner liner called [ PEF ]. We're relying on that going live and being produced at scale until we can scale this product. But if we don't try, we're never going to change anything. So that's one example. And another example is in the U.K., where we trialed a bottle with 90% lower carbon footprint than traditional glass bottles, which was basically driven by renewable thermal heat and an almost 100% recycled content in these glass bottles. Still trials, but it is a sign of things to come on how we can really decarbonize our value chain. Within zero water waste, we also have 2 different types of targets. Number one is really driven by our supply chain colleagues in the breweries every day doing excellence in terms of reducing our water consumption. And here, we have 2 different targets in Together Towards ZERO and Beyond. One is a global target of achieving 2.0 hectoliter per hectoliter by 2030, and the other is to achieve 1.7 in the areas that we designate as breweries situated within high risk of either water quality or scarcity issues, as defined by the water risk filter tool from WWF that we are using. So within efficiency, amazing targets. But also we have done really well on performance, really driven by our supply chain colleagues being excellent at driving best practices and implementing whatever small effort we can across the entire production chain to really reduce water usage at the brewery. Secondly, we have introduced a new target, to replenish 100% of the water intake consumption at our breweries in areas of high risk. So basically conducting projects outside of the breweries that will replenish the [ atropine ] and the basins in those particular areas where we operate. And proof points again have come from a country like Vietnam, where we have been providing clean water to their central and really making that a brand benefit and a proposition that is also driving consumer engagement. And the number speaks for itself. Providing clean water to more than 27,000 people, I think, is an amazing societal but also a very strong feat in terms of our engagement with local society in Vietnam. And also our example on efficiency, which is not driven by best practice and culture but more by an actual investment, is really coming from Denmark, where we have been able to achieve an absolute world-class performance of 1.4 hectoliters of water per hectoliter of beer through an amazing system of technologies that enable us to use 90% of the recycled water again at the breweries for service purposes. So again, 2 proof points that we're not just talking the talk, we're also walking the talk in terms of Together Towards ZERO and Beyond. And when we're looking at the penultimate zero, so the zero irresponsible drinking, here, there has been a lot of talk about the alcohol-free brews and their effects. So I will not be spending a lot of time on that. But obviously, really emphasizing beer as the low alcohol choice within moderate consumption is really a key driver of our target of 35% share by 2030 of no and low, so below 3.5% and between 0% and 0.5%, as [ Joris ] alluded to earlier. But at the same time, doing the things that really drive moderation and moderation campaigns, creating partnerships, making sure we have the right information on our packs, on our brews to drive responsible and moderate consumption throughout our markets. And here, we have examples that are marketing driven, where we really try to reach the consumers with particular messaging. Like a local campaign from Sweden, where apparently, there's a lot of sailing going around in the summertime. Here, we really immersed a bar to the bottom of the Swedish [indiscernible] in order to highlight that you should not drink and boat. A slightly different situation than what many people face, but still, it's about creating awareness and encourage responsible behavior with our products. And secondly, Malaysia, who has really been performing well over the years on really emphasizing the need for moderation, providing free taxi ride home from events where our products have been sold and really encouraging responsible consumption in general. So again, 2 very strong examples from our businesses. And lastly, the last zero, which is to achieve a zero accident culture. Here, I think we have the only target that anyone should have, which is a target of zero accidents. And that will, of course, be incredibly difficult to reach. But nonetheless, the focus from our top management, from any colleague in the supply chain organization, in logistics, whoever is responsible for safety across our company, has really been amazing since the launch of SAIL'22, and this focus continues with SAIL'27 to really keep driving down the accident rate. But also, to ensure that our culture changes and sometimes training is really needed. So for example, in 2021, we had 3,300 employees in China going through training and safe behavior, in particular, also in driving 2 wheel vehicles. Or in kind of a global approach, we have been focusing on the really basic things at the breweries, doing safety walks consistently in our breweries to ensure we identify risk areas and to really ensure that the observations we see are also channeled into action that prevents accidents from happening. And in the end, of course, the worst type of accidents, which is a fatality. So a lot of concrete work going on on Together Towards ZERO and Beyond. I'm truly excited for the coming program and also for the expansion of the program, which no longer has 4 focus areas, but 11 focus areas. This is also a testament to a much more complex world, a world where you are imposing also a lot of requirements and expectations to us, but that also goes society in general. So without being successful within the ESG sphere, we will not have a successful business. And that is really the approach that we're taking. But obviously, it is not something that we can do alone as Carlsberg. We really need to do it together with civil society, with our suppliers, with our colleagues and with all of those people that have a stake in our business. And that is why it is called Together Towards ZERO and Beyond and not just Towards zero and Beyond. So thank you very much for listening, and I hope that you will enjoy our new program and all of the actions that we will be implementing in the coming years. So with that, I will hand over to Victor, who will take you through some more details on our supply chain work. Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executiveGood morning. Simon, I think, did quite a good introduction for supply chain. Mentioning a lot of good work we are doing in supply chain, and it's actually a good work. Supply chain in Carlsberg. It's about over 95% of the assets company has, physical assets, equipment, breweries, vehicles. A little bit of more than 50% of people working on supply chain, and almost over 70% of the various costs we are controlling or spending through the supply chain, starting from procurement, manufacturing, logistics and delivery. And supply chain was on a very successful journey over the past 10 years. Why I'm talking 10 years? Supply chain in Carlsberg as a central and global function was established back in 2012, so the function is relatively young as a global function. But we deliver very good and strong results already, moving step by step from establishment function, delivering basic standards, or as we call it, Carlsberg Operating Manual in 2012. In 2016, we moved together with launching of the SAIL'22 program to more advanced standards. We also established a much strong governance between the central function and the 3 regions to make sure that they all synchronize and work in on the same or relevant priorities. And in 2016, we launched a program, which calls Carlsberg Excellence. It's a set of the best practices and, or you can call it, philosophy, how to run supply chain within the Carlsberg. How to operate our breweries, how to operate our lines, how to drive efficiency. Moving towards SAIL'27, we will continue develop supply chain. Start moving from, for instance, Carlsberg Excellence, from the pilots to end-to-end implementation of the common program across all the steps of the supply chain, across all sub-functions of the supply chain. We will implement several end-to-end programs and tools, like one of the biggest of them is called One Plan. It's end-to-end planning, starting from the demand planning to inventory planning, including production and line scheduling. And we definitely will focus on the Together Towards ZERO priorities, which Simon has mentioned. As I said, we deliver so far strong results. Despite all the storms, which Cees was talking earlier today, we were able to improve year-over-year non-material cost per hectoliter. We deliver strong increase of the -- our assets, or especially production lines improvement, efficiency improvement. That gives us -- and that was a pilot of the Carlsberg Excellence program that gives us, in Asia, for instance, almost 6 million or over 6 million hectoliters of free capacity, and mostly in China, supporting the growth. Over the last 6 years, you saw that China was growing fast. There were not so many investments into new assets, new breweries, new lines, but they were behind us in a lot of investments and the capability of our people into reliability of our commitment. And I think from this standpoint of view, talking about Carlsberg Excellence, there is no better analogy like sailing to supply chain because if you see our SAIL'22, SAIL'27 program, analogies like the boat in the ocean. Supply chain, if you are in the ocean, you don't want to have your engine broken in the middle of the ocean, so equipment reliability and efficiency is important. You want to have well-trained and capable crew. Again, related to us develop capability and professionalism of our people. And in the middle of the ocean, you don't want to end up without resources. So you have to be focused on the resources, loss asset reduction and multiple savings. So altogether, again, moving to labor efficiency, delivered strong performance. You can see almost directly with line efficiency improvement. CO2 and water consumption reduction or CO2 emission. Again, there were a couple of projects which we were running as a test, like Denmark water recycling project. But most of the improvements delivered through just improving our efficiency of our processes, eliminating various losses on the production line, outside of production line, on the warehouse, backyards, et cetera. Moving forward, in SAIL'27, again, it's not evolution and evolution, having the new targets or more sharper targets. And keeping in mind that most of the low-hanging fruits already are collected, we need to reorganize supply chain in order to be better prepared for continuous journey, continued journey on the improvements on our performance and, also strengthening service provided by supply chain to our commercial organization. So we are talking about 2 ways of integration of the supply chain. Vertical, from the group, region or country, in order to make sure we drive efficiency -- technical efficiency of supply chain. And horizontal between supply chain and commercial function, to make sure that we are not losing either information or losing anything between supply chain and commercial, when we are collecting demand data and producing relevant products. For these purposes, we already reorganized the supply chain function at the group level and also at the regional levels. So they are corresponding each other, and we are almost eliminated duplications in terms of different levels of organization. They are working together, complementing each other rather than working on the same activities in parallel. And at the same time, we strengthen our focus on the linkage between supply chain organization at the market and the regional level with the commercial and finance functions in order to be able to drive those efficiencies, which I mentioned earlier. The next, it's -- that would be the our pivotal program for next 6 year, and I believe beyond in 6 years. It calls Carlsberg Excellence. To many of you, it would be similar to [indiscernible], but through the pilot, through the SAIL'27 program, we did several strategy, we did several pilots. And we identify clearly what kind of best practices, industrial best practices within the Carlsberg best practices are relevant to all of our breweries, to all of our lines. And they really delivering benefits and efficiency, and what kind of activities are not delivering what is expected. So we reshaped the Carlsberg Excellence program, and we will relaunch it starting from 2023 in a more organized and more structured way. There are 4 levels starting from foundation, basic standards and advanced standards, very clearly defined purpose of each level. And also very clearly defined responsibility, who is responsible within supply chain organization for implementation, and who is responsible for development of those standards. I believe that would be the next step. And we already, again, as I mentioned, delivered strong results. In some cases, they are best in industry results. So for instance, using China as again, as an example, on the canyon lines. We don't have any canyon lines running below 80% equipment efficiency in China through this methodology. And we will expand it forward. Water savings, again, a lot of best practices. They are part of the Carlsberg Excellence program. From Carlsberg Excellence to -- which, as I said, helping us to strengthen the vertical integration of supply chain to horizontal integration. We are launching the One Plan. We already starting the pilot of the One Plan project. Interacted, this is the planning tool, which starts from the customer or consumer demand and through all the transfer in the same set of data, same principles through all the value chain. To making sure that at the end of the warehouse, we have right inventory and right quality -- quantity in the right time. Two things we are expecting from this. Improvement of the service level, and also improvement of our financial KPIs because we would be able to optimize inventory even further. I wouldn't say it's bad today, but the next level of improvement will come through this horizontal integration of the supply chain. And again, we implemented strong and, on the same time, a rather simple assets stewardship program. The Carlsberg supply chain is over 250 manufacturing clients, and also brewing and all support and equipment. I would say we are operating the equipment which is produced in 2 centuries, last century and the current century. There's some high-tech equipment recently installed and also equipment installed 10, 15, 20 years ago, so we need to have strong set of capabilities to run all this equipment. And also, we need to have clear visibility when and how we will replace or maintain, overhaul this asset base before integrated supply chain. We didn't have this visibility. So starting from this year, this visibility is very clear, and we know also. Helping us to balance and have a strong discipline on the CapEx investments because we know when and what we will replace, when and what we will refurbish. And finally, we will continue to look for the efficiency improvement. And not only efficiency improvement in terms of existing equipment, but also new technologies available on the market. We are pretty close, working with -- pretty closely working with our suppliers, and there is just a few examples of the lightweighting of the glass bottles. There's technology coming from suppliers. Recyclable cardboard, energy efficient manufacturing, logistics equipment. But on the other side, we also developing some cars. We have proprietary technologies, which is developing a collaboration between supply chain, new technology department and also Carlsberg Research lab, which you were visiting yesterday. There are also 3 examples that come as a joint efforts like special fermentation tanks which allows us to improve the fermentation process, reduce the fermentation time and therefore, with the same footprint of equipment, to improve the output of our brewing department. New varieties of it you've heard yesterday, there are more than 50,000 yeast strains available in our lab. Of course, we are not using all of them, but we are carefully selecting which will give us better results in terms of, again, either fermentation quality, speed of fermentation or new product development like low or alcohol-free type of products. And water recycling. As I said, we already piloted one of the I think, best in industry technology in Denmark. Why I say I think it is one of the best technology? After we publish or announce about starting this project, like top 5 big beverage companies were reaching out to us, asking about details of this technology, because they found 1.4 liter per liter consumption of water. It's extremely tough to deliver with their current technologies. So in a short summary at the end, we have solid performance delivered by supply chain already, and delivered through SAIL'22 program. We will update based on the learnings from SAIL'22. We will update our key standards and key programs to be able to deliver next level of performance in order to deliver SAIL'27 strategy requirements. New technologies, very strong performance coming from the new technology, and they will support SAIL'27 delivery. And finally, in terms of Together Towards ZERO and Beyond, there are specific projects like on water recycling, will be implemented across many brewers as already announced by Simon. But we still continue to improve efficiency of our existing equipment where we see still opportunities to either to reduce electricity consumption, heat consumption or water recycling. Thank you. Peter, over to you.
Lars Lehmann
executiveThank you, Soren, the appetizer before the lunch. So bear with me for 20 minutes. And the Q&A session will take place when we do in all 3 regions. So you will get the chance to ask questions. So this is -- this presentation is excluding Russia. So all these slides excluding Russia, except the very last slide that gives you a little bit of an update on our business in Russia. So a little bit more attention to the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. We got 12 business units, including Russia. That we put Russia for sale and is not counting in the numbers doesn't mean that we don't spend time on Russia. We still got a very big business here, 8,400 employees. So this year, we still going on there. On top of that, of course, we have a lot of work on the site separating the business out, preparing it for sales. So that's certainly part of the workflow for the region. We got #1 position strong -- #2 position in 7 markets. Baltics are counted like one market even though it's, in reality, 3 different countries. We're also #1 in Azerbaijan, and we also got our export and license business where we also got some good niche positions in a number of markets. For example, we are #1 in Saudi Arabia, obviously, in AFB. This is a little bit on the numbers, again, excluding Russia. Just on the revenue side, the region last year did DKK 17 billion in revenue. As DKK 7 billion out of the DKK 17 billion were from Russia. But what we are quite satisfied about that despite all the turmoil in our region this year, the war in Ukraine, basically our 2 biggest markets being at war with each other, and then on top of that, also the tail of COVID, especially in markets like in Italy and Greece beginning of the year before the bounce back after COVID and then also hyperinflation. So despite that, we're still able to deliver growth in top and bottom line in the first half. So we're pretty happy about that. It's very much about pricing and mix. So first half, we have an increase in revenue per hectoliter of 14% in the region, a combination of price and mix. We are also in the region with a low beer prices. So if you look at net revenue per hectoliter between the 3 regions, net revenue per hectoliter that is basically half in CE, and it is in Western Europe and is also substantially below Asia. It's not because we're doing a bad job on pricing, it's not because we're running our economy business, it's just prices in especially Eastern Europe and the Balkans are very low. So we have to run a very, very tight shop, and that's also what we're doing. So we have a lot of operational tools, some of the ones that was introduced both by Cees and Soren Brinck, we don't have any other options. So you also see that we got a fairly low SG&A margin. And we also got, I would say, a lower-than-average marketing margin, but that's not because we're not investing. We just do it very efficiently, and some of that -- some of our markets are also dark markets. So it's limited what we can do HCL-wise. Apart from running a tight shop on cost and efficiencies, then we also are driving the whole mix, the product mix very hard. And it is a combination of some of the strategy we got for the whole company. That's already very much live Central and Eastern Europe. So we are -- 26% of our revenue are now coming from what we call mix driving brands because it's not just premium beers, it's also very much beyond beer, Garage, in particular, is doing an excellent job as the kind of RTD and it's beer-based, but consumers see it as ready-to-drink. We actually also launched a hardcore of Garage. It's hard lemon, but it's 4.5%, the regional variant, different flavors, but we also launched very successfully a hardcore variant of 6%, which got Black Label look at safer and playing very much in RTD. We also got a big energy business. We got a brand entity point that we own so it's not a third-party brand, this is our own brand. It's called Flash Up, and that's also doing very well in especially the Eastern European part, and we also got Battery for the Baltics. So we're fine in all those mix driving cylinders and beyond beer is key for driving our mix in the region. That was alluded to before, we got our SG&A margin around 12%. And of course, we reduced marketing during COVID and building that up again. But we're not going overboard on that. This is the reality of the region we are dealing with. So of course, everyone is aware of the war in Ukraine, but we also got a lot of other crisis in our part of the world. Everyone seems to be fighting. Everyone at least do that in their own country if they're not doing with their neighbors, and that's just what we need to deal with. We are lucky to have a very, very good management team, very, very good organizations that are reacting very fast to the changes in the environment in a very organized way. I think we also got a lot of practice, and that also helps. So that's how we get around all these challenges. And I think the best proof of that ability is probably also that both in Ukraine and in Russia this year, we actually made more money than we did in first half last year. It sounds a bit surprising maybe. FIT is one of the other tools that we're using very much in our region. It's fully embedded and been that for quite a long time. Also, the use of image recognition is also fully embedded across the region. So it's much more about just keep on doing continuous improvement on the actual in-store execution and adjust what we call picture of success as we want to drive more mix and we want to prioritize certain brands and do a bit of notching of space in the store and the cooler, et cetera. Then this is a little bit of a sneak view into what we call Carlsberg export and license of SAIL. As we will eventually get our Russian business sold, we also need to double down on some of the other opportunities we got in our region, outside our region, and one of them is SAIL. Just a little bit, we organized in business units, geographical business units, Canada got its own, because we got on Carlsberg [indiscernible], which is a sales of [indiscernible] that's giving export products from Europe. And in other markets, we got license partners. We've got -- I won't set up like we have in the Middle East as well or we've got imported, so different route-to-market sourcing models depending on where we are. Some of the key markets for our export and license that is Turkey is one of the market, the license market where Tuborg Gold is very big, and working with our strategic partner, the CBC Group from Israel. That's also our partner in Israel and Romania and Uzbekistan on top of Turkey. [indiscernible], we are partnering with the Carlsberg brand with [indiscernible]. And we're also having quite good businesses in Australia and South Korea with CUB and Hite, respectively. Very much are focusing on Somersby and Blanc in those markets. Here's a bit of a split of the brands. We are selling in SAIL in terms of volume, see the Tuborg is very big in volume, not the least via some of the licenses in Turkey and Romania. What we -- one of the big opportunities going forward with SAIL that is to invest more in our own route-to-market in some of the key markets, so setting up our own sales organizations. And so also adding more of our key international brands to the local partner portfolio. In some of our markets, the partners have been more focused. We have been more focused over time on Carlsberg and Tuborg, and there's certainly a big opportunities to roll out Blanc in much more markets and scale it up. So most is actually pretty well represented in sale markets, but Blanc is a big opportunity. AFB, historically, we got a strong leg in the Middle East. You'll see that funny brand bottle there on the right called Moussy, but that's very much of what we call dry markets, markets like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya where you cannot buy alcohol. But we're also dialing up on AFB versions of both Carlsberg and Tuborg and Somersby, and that's a big opportunity in some of these markets where we have not really moved that fast on AFB outside the Middle East and Blanc, so that's big opportunities. So here is -- this is Ukraine. You got the map there on the right. And the green regions, that's where we are back to more than 80% of war level on active outlets, outlets that are buying our products. And you will see that there you can almost see sort of the front line there, and we're not doing business in the red areas. And you can see now at down the orange one that's down south close to Kherson. So that's also a bit of a hotspot. We're lucky that we got our 3 breeze in the Ukraine controlled part of the country. So far west, we've got Lviv free, we've got Kyiv in the middle, and then we got Slavutych, which is 40 kilometers from the front line, but on the Ukrainian side, all 3 breweries are being operated, and the Slavutych one was being reopened -- restarted in June. We very quickly opened up the Lviv one. And as soon as the Russians were away from Kyiv, we also opened that one. So that was one of the reasons why we have done very well, that's why we've been moving quite fast. And it's not just about us moving. We have to make sure that our supplier base is also able to deliver raw and packed materials, and that's a bit of a headache in this environment, as you can imagine. And we also need to have distributors and customers that are operating, which is also a challenge. Just a little curiosity here. You see the Baltika brand there, got different lakes, you got Baltika 7 and got Baltika America and also got a big AFB rand at the Baltika 0, but also got the fruity flavors. That used to be last year, 2021, it was 850,000 brand in Ukraine, 6% market share and the biggest premium brand in the country. Roughly 30% of our profits came from the Baltika brand, and that was delisted on the 26th of February. So the decision from the team, which we fully supported that, they didn't want to sell Russian brand in Ukraine after being invaded. So then we had to mitigate that. That's a good challenge. I think if anyone have worked with the markets, and you know that's not an easy one to do and especially not in a war zone and having difficulty just getting supplies, we quite quickly moved into mitigating that. So Baltika 0 mitigated into Garage Zero 0, Baltika America moved into the Lvivske America, it was our big local power brand, and then Baltika 7 moved into Carlsberg export. And we've managed -- by now, we managed to mitigate around 80% of the Baltika brand to these alternatives. So that's what's a surprisingly successful mitigation. As mentioned, we're making more profits first half in Ukraine than we did last year, and we renegotiated all the trade terms during -- especially during April and May, where the market was undersupplied. So we took the opportunity there. Our competitor ABI has still not reopened their breweries that are close to the front line. So that, of course, also helped. But the market itself is down by 35%, 40%. The GDP is down by 50%. So it's itself environment. But we have a fantastic team. So that's all their contribution. Yes. This is just a little bit of -- gain, a little bit of a view into the other parts of CE. You can see how the split is on volumes. What is happening on profit development in the other parts of the business. You've got Baltics in here, you got the Balkans and that's our businesses in Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Hungary and Croatia. And then we got Italy and Greece and the export license. Greece, we got a good business, strong #2. Italy, we are a relatively #4, but it's an interesting market. So that's also one market where we'd like to become bigger and stronger over time. Good. Russia, of course, a lot of interest from all of you about Russia, also got a lot of questions yesterday night. On the left side, you got how we're actually performing this year, and that's not the least because we're very boldly taking a 21% price increase end of March. This pointed some, you might remember, the ruble devaluated right at the war started by around 40%. Later, it's appreciated. So today, it's 32% stronger than Euro, Danish krone than -- versus last year, but it's all, of course, artificial managed. But nevertheless, we decided to take a 21% price increase because we expected inflation would be probably around 20% to 30%. It ended up being a lot lower. Inflation, in Russia CPI today is around 14%, 15%. So that, of course, helped us. And we got a little bit ahead of competition and price increases. So we also needed to adjust that backwards a little bit from June, July to make sure we keep a decent market share around 26%, 27%. That's a strong #2. But the business is up for sale. So if anyone interested in here, just approach me in the lunch, and then we'll sort that out. No, this is a very big business, and it's very much integrated with the rest of Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and before that also, Ukraine, product supplies from -- they have their own breweries in the other markets, but we're not doing all SKUs in all markets. We've been building a model where we had a lot of synergies with our Russian breweries and certain products and SKUs, IT systems integrated, ownership -- cross ownership from Baltika into Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, IP rights on the Baltika brand, Flash Up energy brand,[ Zatec ] our Czech brand. All that we need to sort out in order to separate it and in order to sell the stand-alone business. So that's a lot of work going on across both Baltika and other parts of Carlsberg to make that separation happen before we can sell the business. And you have, of course, senior communication. We expect to sell the business around mid-next year, but there's a lot of uncertainty in this process. As you might imagine, we are not -- it's not a normal divestment process. We are not in full control of who buy and/or at what price. Of course, we would like to try to find a good friendly buyer as we call it. We'll do our best to do that and also maximizing the value. Also finding a way of getting the money out of the business at the end of the day, but it's all very challenging because this is a very unusual environment to sell the business in. And you have to get a lot of permissions to both to the separation and do the actual sale. So these are the 6 priorities for the region. Of course, the #1, that's pricing. This is the mother of all Muslim battles. There's only way to deal with inflation, that's to pass it on to as much as possible. Cees mentioned that in the Eastern Europe part of CE, we already start to see the inflation, the high inflation around July, August last year. So we had a bit more practice, and that's because we are not able to hitch to the same extent, the same length and the same percentage of our own pack as in Western Europe and Asia. So we were seeing that hitting us a bit earlier, and we implemented the peak tool, which serves as well as a way of rationalizing how much of the inflation we are able to pass on. And then, of course, the whole portfolio, all about driving mix. And of course -- the premium mix is, of course, getting some headwind from a consumer sentiment. But nevertheless, we still believe that consumers will look for affordable luxury even in markets with low disposable income, and we still have opportunities to gain share in the premium segment and also beyond beer, where we got very good momentum. So yes, there will be some headwinds, but it doesn't mean that we stop on that product mix drive. We're going to do that also in bad times. And then we got the opportunity also to expand our business in some of the markets, I mentioned in the export and license and also inside the region, for example, Italy, could be interesting to do increase our footprint there. Ukraine, we are definitely betting on Ukraine. We're not leaving our back to Ukraine. That has served us well so far, and we're going to continue doing that. And then we need to get there the sale of our Baltika breweries done at the moment where we have also separated all the interdependencies, cut the cable, so to speak. So we can offload that. It will be a sad day, but that's what we have decided to do. It's the right thing to do. Thank you.
Graham Fewkes
executiveSo talk a bit about Western Europe. I can answer one question upfront, which I know 4 or 5 of you have asked me last night or at lunch, which is why did you come back from Asia to Western Europe? And the answer, which my wife wrote down at the time, when Kate said, it was because it will be a more stable and predictable life, which is something I'm building a little industrial tribunal case on the side. But I'll start just with a refresher for the -- how the Western Europe region is now configured because it hasn't changed since we met in Paris. So it's basically the Nordics, where we've got very strong beer positions bolted on to a very strong soft drinks positions. Switzerland, the same, although the Pepsi brand or the franchise is much earlier in the life cycle than it is in Nordics. France, where we're #2, and we've got sort of challenger positions in Poland, the U.K. and Germany. And then we've got a 60% economic stake in Super Bock, which is a wonderful business, but we're not sort of fully controlling. The region has had a little bit of inorganic change since we met in Paris. So we've got the Wernesgruner acquisition in Germany. That's essentially a supply chain play. Then we no longer proactively supply soft drinks to the Danish-German border, which is actually quite a big business. Those 2 are roughly awash when it comes to top line terms. Then we've done the Marston's there in the U.K., put together Carlsberg Marston's. By and large, those changes, they sort of have a low single-digit impact on the volumes and EBIT and sort of high single-digit impact on the revenue. And that's because a lot of the Marston's business, it's wholesaling third-party products, and those third-party products have the excise duty inside the net sales, unlike the brands we sell ourselves. So it's an important statistical effect to understand. We're pretty pleased with how the Western Europe business is managed through the COVID cycle. I mean, particularly with the on-trade falling off, I guess, the 1 exception, 1 caveat is the operating margins. I mean, they did go down, first of all, because the on-trade is a much higher-margin channel. Secondly, because some of those inorganic changes I talked about we're bringing in lower margin businesses. I mean, repairing the percentage margins will be a more slower grind than repairing the absolute profits in the hectoliter rates. And that's because of the denominator/numerator effect you have when you're pricing up to cover input costs. But by and large, very happy with how the region progressed through the COVID cycle. And we're very happy with the sort of underlying shake of operations and how they evolve through the COVID cycle as well, because despite the fall of the on-trade, where it's typically easier selling premium and super premium brands, you can see that the premium share of our revenue grew very nicely. AFB also grew very nicely. We're certainly gaining value market share in 8 out of 10 of our markets. So within the footprint we have in Europe, we're gaining share. Premium innovations are contributing more and more to that premiumization story. And the average revenue per hectoliter is up 12% versus '19. Some of that is the Marston's effect. There's a lot of it is underlying mix premiumization. We're also very happy with how the SG&A margins as a percent of revenue have improved. And that's no small achievement actually during COVID, because during COVID, the volumes really drop off in the on-trade and it's very difficult taking out costs, there's so much fixed cost in the on-trade, it's being very difficult taking out costs at a pro rata rate. So that SG&A story is good. It's really not just about cost, though. It's also about complexity. When I came back from Asia, I mean, I did find Western Europe a much harder ecosystem to navigating, it's cut part because what we call the P1 models. We've done a lot of work in the last year in sort of simplifying reporting, reducing spend, reducing layers and increasing management spend. So I think the business is in pretty good shape structurally to take on the next sort of [ e-poll ]. And then a lot of the savings we've had have been reinvested in marketing. I mean, I think, we're doing pretty well. The objective was to restore pre-COVID levels of marketing by the end of this year, and we're very much on track to do that. Whether it comes through as percentages of net sales, we're not sure, and that's obviously impacted by the fact we're taking a lot of price. But the absolute spend should be ahead of '19, the pre-COVID year. So by and large, the underlying structure of the region is pretty good. Lars was talking about Western Europe as a homogenous hole. It isn't a homogenous hole. It's -- if you look at the nature of the market, they're pretty asymmetric. They were certainly very asymmetric during COVID. The big on-trade markets like the U.K. and Switzerland had much bigger performance steps as you'd expect. And then some markets were actually big net beneficiaries of COVID. There were market like Norway, where you had the Swedish breweries were closed, so you basically captured a lot of sales at high prices in Norway that were previously lost to the Swedish brewery trade batten generally across Northern Europe, the net travel was very, very favorable for us during COVID because people weren't -- there's a lot of 18- to 34-year-old men, in particular, that weren't spending their summers abroad. So the COVID era was asymmetric. The forthcoming or current and forthcoming inflationary period will also not be symmetrical. And it's a theme I'll pick up on the next slide. But you can see here the profile of the market, we basically indexed some with our market share against our operating margins. And as you expect be the point Cees made earlier, profits in there are very often made and concentrated. We have strong positions in concentrated markets. That's very much what we see, and it very much shapes how those businesses are placed to tackle the next inflationary cycle. The strategic growth sort of opportunities for markets over the SAIL'27 period, that as well does -- it will vary a lot with the nature of the archetype. Where we've got very strong market leadership positions and we've got a lot of commercial and supply chain infrastructure in place, such as the Nordics and Switzerland, there are big opportunities to grow in adjacent categories. Markets like the U.K., Germany and Poland, where we are in challenger positions, we are typically the 3, 4 or 5, we've got to be much more discerning in the bets we take, because what we can't' do in those markets is go head-to-head in mainstream beer with much bigger competitors who've got much better economies of scale. So in markets like Poland and Germany and U.K., it's about making highly differentiated choices. So a lot of the growth, for example, in Germany is coming through big cities outside of our Northern Heartland, where we're selling Somersby, Carlsberg and the Astra brand with, which is a sort of a quirky German semi-craft brand. There's no point in going into big German states and trying to compete in mainstream beer in returnable bottles because the economics just don't work for challengers there. So -- and France is really, I mean, I guess, it will be a market share and value play. We can talk about the differences between markets, but that said, there are still some very sizable common pan-European opportunities in premium beer and Beyond Beer, you've heard about, you'll hear a bit more about it in a minute. There, we typically under indexed in Western Europe. AFB is a very big opportunity for us in Western Europe, and that's somewhere where we're currently over indexed, but we also think there's an enormous growth potential. And there's obviously quite a lot of opportunity in terms of our ways of work in how we manage portfolio. Still a bit of opportunity on the supply chain network and then systems, process synergies, et cetera. So they're both common European growth platforms, but you also need to look at it very much at a country-by-country level. So we're not going to give profit guidance today for reasons you will understand. Insofar, as your models do need feeding tonight, some food for thought for them, if you think about the nature of input cost inflation, the markets which are better placed to take it or they'll need lower percentage price increases or the price volume elasticity risks are going to be typically smaller, there will be markets where you got strong leadership position, higher price markets, particularly markets with high excise duty, which is normally a curse for our industry. But when it comes to high inflation period, the excise duties at high excise can actually be an advantage because it means the percentage, the relative delta you need is smaller. Markets with a very strong premium mix at the moment should do better than markets with better draft mix or can mix. And obviously, markets with resilient currencies and richer consumers and the markets where the challenge is going to be stiffer, where you've got weaker positions in fragmented markets, a very mainstream or lower-priced markets, particularly ones with big glass bottle segment because glass, as Victor told you, is more prone to inflation through energy, and obviously, weaker currencies in poor consumers. Our own -- Cees has touched on it, I know we'll come back a little bit on it, but I'll talk a bit about how we're managing that process. I do think we're managing pretty professionally. We've got the program Windforce 12 that Cees alluded to. So what we've been doing right from the start of the year and forward looking until the end of '23, we've been aggregating each month as the input costs change. And I'm not just talking about the commodities that flow into COGS directly, but also energy as some of the more fungible costs which flow further down the P&L. We've been taking those in. We've got a wonderful BI tool for aggregating up and turning them into COGS outlooks and logistics outlook by market, and you've got to obviously make a volume assumptions in that period. But we've been projecting that forward. And then that's been generating a PIIC target, the amount we need to take price mix to cover that. And then we've been reviewing each month with the markets where they're doing and their PIIC coverage. And then most of the discussion is, of course, on gap closure in how to manage that. And it's, I mean, obviously OCM cost control, which is anyway at Carlsberg, that remains especially important in this period that we're not letting the cost base snip in any way. Looking a bit further out, these are sort of risks and opportunities. They should all be very familiar to you. there are risks and opportunities over a longer time frame. I mean, it's -- I can gauge from sort of half the questions I got last night that the short-term headwinds are a bit more tangible and newsworthy. So people are focusing a moment on the supply chain challenges on the input cost inflation, but we are for Western Europe, over the time frame of SAIL'27, we are very upbeat about the tailwinds we've got to follow, particularly the resilience of branded core beer. Even during the deepest recessions we've had in recent years within beer, soft drink is a little bit different, but within beer, private labels, very rarely made a dent in the category. Certainly, the premiumization trend, I mean, and the consumer interest in different beer types is very much sector set to continue. AFB is underpinned by long-term health and well-being trends, and we've seen great category growth. There are 2 elements to the AFB opportunity in Western Europe. One is sort of beer substitute in the occasions for existing beer drinkers on occasions like the lunch we've just had, where you don't want to drink alcohol. And then the other opportunity is quite different. It's flavored alcohol-free beers that are more reaching out to consumers who are beer rejectors. So it's opening up new consumers, as well as new occasions for us. And you see the trajectory of the brand is having those different opportunities can be quite different. For the brewery AFBs, it's a sort of volume play under margin play that there's an extra volume opportunity and it comes at higher margins. For the fruity AFBs that have a much bigger overlap the soft drinks, it's clearly a very big volume play because a pool of occasions and consumers you're opening up to is transformational if we can unlock it. It's huge. The margin side of it. And at the moment, they're margin enhancing. But obviously, the overlapping the soft drinks a lot, then there's a degree to which a price elasticity versus soft drinks can't get totally dislocated. So that would be to be seen. I mean, none of these should be surprises to you. They broadly reflect the global ones, but I've got some the European data points in there as well. AFB, we're already doing a good job on, and our AFBs got a decently growing share of the mix of our business, and we're typically overtrading. We typically have much higher shares in AFB than we do as a business as a whole. Premium beer is a different story where we undertrade reasonably heavily. These bars here are looking at beer pricing by segment is named Nielsen data from 2021. And you can see that we overtrade the economy and lower mainstream end of it, broadly on track in mainstream and we undertrade in sub-premium, premium and superpremium. Don't get too hung up on the exact trajectory of the green line. I don't see here people having to model away based on this. It's a little bit arbitrary. But it's just a metaphor for the anticipated change in shape of our portfolio. As a journey, we're already under. But our investment priorities are very much beer apparent, shifting the portfolio, shape in this regard. A lot of economy in the -- certainly in the next year is going to become loss-making anyway, but we're certainly and we're able to price up a lot as for the industry, not for Carlsberg. We're expecting to lose share in economy. We expect to lose a little bit of share in lower mainstream. We're expecting to hold mainstream share and then grow quite significantly in sub-premium and premium and to superpremium. The guys presenting earlier didn't have the distinction of sub-premium, premium, superpremium. I will build on that a little bit. Because the Western Europe in particular, there is an important distinction, some of the big opportunities really are in sub-premium. And I'll talk about some of the brands we see unlocking that a bit later. That's broadly reflected in this slide, which is how we lay out our category priorities. As you'd expect, we can't ignore the foundations of our business, which is about 60% of our current revenue, and it's just under 1/3 of our anticipated revenue growth over the next 5 or 6 years. That's really about strengthening core beer, which is holding value share in mainstream. And then we're looking to increase gross brand contribution. That's a proxy for brand EBIT, I guess, it's a gross profit minus marketing costs within all beer. And then we're looking to continue winning in soft drinks, which is a very important part of our business in the Nordics in Switzerland, where we're looking to keep growing share and at least defend our GP actually to margins during the inflationary period. But most of the growth is going to come from what we're calling the 3 growth levers, which is currently 25% of our revenue, but they're going to be -- need to be 2/3 or more of our profitable growth over the next cycle. Now stepping up in premium where we're looking to get more than a 20% share of premium beer. There are 3 main legs to that. There are, in sub-premium, we want to build once -- at least 1, in some markets are maybe 2, but scalable brands that get to at least 10% of the local operating company's revenue. And they're typically local premium brands, but their brands really can make a big difference. They can add proper scale to the business, and they're being put through industrial breweries are coming through with very attractive COGS and very attractive GP margins. Then we have Blanc, which is an opportunity everywhere. The U.K., obviously, we don't have the distribution rights to Blanc. So we leave that aside. But Blanc will be a big priority everywhere else. And then Brooklyn has a big opportunity for us in the region. AFB, where we want to continue growing faster than the category, but also sort of keep leading and developing it the minimum threshold. We're looking to achieve the sort of at least 10 percentage points market share of AFB above the local company's market share. And then growing beyond beer, which for us will really be a matter of focusing on Somersby and Garage in the near term. That's the theory of our category priorities. Of course, you're an audience, like yourselves, will be more interested in proof points, that we're making sort of credible proof points. And we're making momentum, and it's a credible opportunity. In strengthening core beer as it currently stands, we're doing very well. I mean, over the last 18 months and also year-to-date this year, we're gaining share in 8 of the 10 markets. And if you aggregate those markets together to form a sort of Western Europe or Carlsberg footprint of Western Europe, we've gained 0.8% market share over the last year. I guess, you could say it because we haven't taken a price, but it is still good to gain share. Soft drinks is extremely strong performance. We're gaining share in 4 of the 5 markets where we're playing. And you can see soft drinks have been growing very steadily through the COVID cycle. So since '19, up 14% on CSDs, and a lot of that coming from the sugar-free colas, which is really the important play brand in that area. And then energy drinks, which are the big premiumization play within soft drinks, there, we've grown our volumes 90%. So we've got some extremely strong brand franchises to play with. So in step-up in premium, these are half one numbers this year, but the scalable premium brands, we've got it growing extremely nicely and really starting to make a difference, Frydenlund brand in Norway is now more. It's already beaten the sort of threshold target. It is about 11% of our revenue. Jacobsen in Denmark, some of you tasted last night, that's growing extremely fast. Valaisanne, the brand in Switzerland, doing very, very well. Blanc was up 10% this year, which we're okay with, but not super pleased with. I would say Blanc, we need to build the momentum. It's doing very, very well in the Nordics. One of the little asset test in beer is to whether a brand is getting real serious consumer traction, is when you have competitor's beer ties, when they're tying up on-trade outlets, when the customer ask for an exemption for one of your brands, sometimes happens to us with Corona. When the customers ask for an exemption to allow Blanc to be sold, that really is an asset test of a brand having very deep consumer traction. And we are starting to see that across the Nordics. And then Brooklyn as well, the number you saw earlier from Steve, that's up 42%. That's at a very significant price premium. So we're very pleased with the progress in step-up in premium. We're very pleased with the progress in AFB this year. We're still growing share nicely. Volume share still up. It's slightly lower than the COVID era growth, which is partly the higher base, but it's also the channel mix because post-COVID with the on-trade recovering, the off-trade being softer and AFB does skew to the off-trade, but that's the sort of delta between AFB and core beer, even though the off-trade is down per se is remaining very healthy. And then our 2 or 3 big brand priorities in there, Carlsberg 0.0, Brooklyn Special Effects and then Total Twist, I will come on and talk about, they're all doing extremely well. And then Beyond Beer is a bit more of a lukewarm performance so far. This we sort of probably give an amber, where we do give a amber rate into whereas we're getting a green rate into the others. We're quite early in that journey outside Somersby in the Nordics. Their overall volume and revenue growth held back a little bit by the Polish market, which has been very, very tough for everybody. But we've got good initiatives coming down the pipeline, and we're very confident that Beyond Beer is going to be an important part of the region going forward. I'll talk a bit more specifically now about some of the individual opportunities. Frydenlund, that's an example of a brand that was a sort of local. The diverse formula for scaling up in premium and local brands. One formula is taking a high-priced craft brand and bringing it down to an accessible price point and moving the production to a full-scale brewery. Another formula is to take a brand with a very interesting regional story. I mean, Heineken have done a really wonderful job on this with Ichnusa in Sardinia. And we've got a few -- I guess, Morrisons an example of that in our business of China. We take a brand with a very idiosyncratic regional story, and then you take it to a national footprint at higher price points. Frydenlund is an example of it. It was a more local brand in Norway that's growing very nicely. And then over the last decade, it's gone from a 1% share of our business to 11% this year. Price index 10, I wouldn't get too hung up on price indices because a lot depends on the structure of the market to start with. Norway is the most expensive beer market in the world. And so a 10% price premium in Norway is much bigger than a 20% or 30% price increase in a premium rather in another business. So that's very margin accretive for us. Jacobsen was a craft brand in Denmark, where we brought the pricing down still indexing very nicely versus the core of the business at 150, but we brought the index down and we're really scaling it up. And that's giving us a lot of incremental share in Denmark. And then we have the Valaisanne brand in Switzerland is another example. That's a brand that was specific originally to one of the French-speaking cantons, the Valais in the south of Switzerland. It built a certain cult appeal nationally in Switzerland as a craft brand, and then we've really taken it nationally. We have lots of proof points on the way. We have to make sure that it had a decent rate of sale in the German-speaking cantons before we started investing heavily behind it. We're now rolling out distribution, and that's a big and important part of our premiumization in Switzerland. I mean, Blanc, Brooklyn and Somersby are talked less about. We've had plenty of people talk about them already and the data proof points are in the pre-read. One brand I'll dwell a little bit longer on is Tourtel Twist. This really is a jewel because it's one of the first AFB brands globally, that really is building very substantial scale with a large amount of that scale being sourced from nonalcoholic beverages, so very low cannibalization of the beer business and really starting to reach into occasions and channels which aren't sort of overlapping with the beer business. So 88% of the growth is coming from nonalcoholic beverages. It's well over 0.5 million hectoliters already, and it's still growing double digits. So it's growing double digits still with having a very significant volume base. And that's a formula which Tourtel, the brand itself, we may not scale in other markets because it was a sort of French brand to start with and the proposition, well, the brand name may not transfer, but the proposition really should. And if you can start reapplying this idea in other markets, it could be becoming a very meaningful player in AFB. So to wrap up any messages on Western Europe, it's really a diverse footprint of markets with very different risk profiles and very different opportunity profiles. But at the same time, there are some common themes we can bind together. The performance through the COVID cycle and the momentum into this next sort of inflationary cycle is generally very strong. And in the key segments that we really need to win or in key categories we need to win in, we've got very good momentum already. The OCM cost control is in place, and we should have the funding for the increased marketing we need to win in premium, win in AFB, which is -- will require incremental investment versus just scaling up soft drinks and mainstream core beer. The near-term outlook is challenging, but we've got, we think, very robust management disciplines and processes in place to manage that. And then if you're looking over both the short term and the midterm through the SAIL'27 cycle, there's plenty of premiumization headwind. It's not just the overall category premiumization tailwinds we've got, but we've got very specific trading abilities within the business at our discretionary controlled to manage. So we're very upbeat about premiumization. We're very upbeat about AFB and the underlying drivers in AFB. And beyond there, its current momentum is solid, but not spectacular, but we've got a good pipeline of activities coming through. So that I think in essence, is the Western Europe to...
Joao Abecasis
executiveGood afternoon, everyone. Somebody said to me last night after we were speaking for around a quarter of an hour, wait a minute, I recognize the face and I recognize the accent. So yes, Bob, we were together in Paris. When we were together in Paris, I was in my previous role in France, not even aware that I was going to get to my next role, which is no longer my current role. So for the past 3 years, I've had the pleasure of being the Chief Commercial Officer whilst we went through COVID and through the war in Ukraine. And now I'll be speaking from my vast experience of 3 weeks in Asia. I also have the pleasure of partnering with CK, and CK will do much more justice to our achievements in Asia, in China specifically, over the past few years. However, and that was also a question I was asked last night, which was, now as you come into your new role into Asia, how much are you going to change of the strategy there, okay? So apologies to disappoint, and these risks being a very boring presentation, it would be very, very weird if I would come into this role with big strategy changes, because after all, I've been sparring partner, wingman and partner in crime, to my 3 colleagues that were standing in the regions, whether it was earlier with Graham in Asia, and with Leo more recently, with Lars in CE, and more recently with Graham in Western Europe. So apologies, but don't expect much big strategy changes there. We've been part of the same team for the past 3 years. What I feel comfortable about talking is about the achievements of Asia, because as I said, I was just a part of the team, and I was not leading the region. We have #1 or #2 positions in 7 of our markets. But it's very, very wide-ranging share positions, as you know, because they go from 93% in Lao to 5% in beer in Cambodia. So it's a very diverse region, but it's also a very diverse presence in the -- across the region. What you'll see is that it's typically lower priced, lower costs and that you've seen in the transformation from the 37% group volumes into only 32% group revenue, but then on to 42% of group operating profit. And that has also been built on the back of rolling out and scaling our premium international brands. Now that's the trajectory of those brands to the end of last year. Plus -- not plus 100%, but plus 187% in -- with Blanc. And there was a question from this table earlier, because that is still very much based in China, so probably somebody knew where Ms. Vietnam was 2 weeks ago Ho Chi Minh, yes, because she was at the launch party of 1664, but there is more to come, but that will also come by expanding into more countries. We're happy with the growth of Somersby, with 25% growth over the period. And as you see, most of the brands are either in premium or in superpremium, although I would say you start from a per mainstream with Tuborg premium, with Carlsberg premium, with Somersby then typically superpremium with 1664 Blanc. But Somersby has still a huge opportunity to establish itself. A question from Mark earlier in the day, if beer skews towards mile, it skews slightly to an older consumption profile. But what you see is that more sweeter, easier on the pallets, just like Blanc, just like Somersby, skewed typically to younger adults and have more of a mixed gender consumer base. So we are quite -- it's not just about what we've achieved until '21, is what this still has legs to achieve going forward by expanding into more markets. And we could say there is 1 number that is negative. If you look at the period 2017 to '21, which was the minus 6% on Carlsberg, that is already corrected as we speak in '22. And that had a lot to do with lockdowns in Malaysia on on-trade, quite a few lockdowns in night entertainment in China, and it's the full recovery of that, that has allowed us to get back to the previous COVID base and already at the same size that we had back in '17 as we speak in '22. You'll see that my first slides are very much about how we performed historically, and then I'll project forward how we see ourselves in the region going forward. Back then at this very nice translation, and I'm not speaking on my laurels, but on those of the teams in Asia of my predecessors, and what you've seen is a very strong trajectory that many of you have been following very closely, both of strong volume growth part of that by expanding premium portfolios, part of that by geographic expansions, not least by expanding in cities and regions in China. But very nicely translated into double-digit CAGR growth for operating profits and with continuous margin improvement. True, probably less affected than in '20 and '21, still affected on on-trade, but on-trade has a huge presence and a huge weight in Western Europe. And after all, with inflationary pressures, but with less inflationary pressures than we might be feeling right now in Europe. The energy crisis is bigger over here than it is over there. And one thing is that, that has been done not just by cutting back on investments, but by being very disciplined on cost, and you see the SG&A as a percentage of revenue now below 10%, which is a massive improvement over '19 and '20, even throughout COVID. And we're still missing on that first half, the big season that covers Q3. What you also see is that part of the results and still without hindering the results, reinvested back -- reinvesting back into previous levels of marketing investments behind our brands. And if we are going to continue to grow strong positions in premium brands beyond China, that resilience of continuing to invest on marketing will be fundamental to establish those premium brands. Now this is still looking back. And I was very happy to be a partner in crime in the sense of the way we've established some of our international brands. Somebody, Christian was asking me earlier at lunch, what was I proudest of, of those 3-year spent in lockdown in group commercial? I think Soren and Steve did a great job of sharing that this morning. I do think we have stronger premium brand assets; you've seen it on 1664 Blanc. You've also seen it on Brooklyn. But I think the fact that after the initial SAIL'22 period, we've established clear differentiated positioning for both Carlsberg, Tuborg, Blanc and Somersby has allowed us to have those platforms, serving different consumers, different age profiles, different demographics with different brand positionings and that really been driven by the team in Asia. At the same time, and we talk a lot about WuSu. It's true with great brand momentum. But 2 weeks ago, I was in Lao so was case last week, and you still see very, very strong vibrancy of the way the Laoshan consumers are engaging with Beerlao. So it is also fundamentally rooted in local power brands. And it's not just WuSu in China, it's WuSu, it's Chongqing, it's Beerlao in Lao. It's Huda when you go to Central Vietnam. So that is also a key part of our performance until this year on Asia. And Somersby, I would define right now more as the future play. It's not a play that scale across the region. What is play that scale across the region, namely in Lao and Cambodia is soft drinks. And soft drinks in this case, its soft drinks and its energy. STING is much, much more than a soft drinks brand. It is then in energy, but it is a soft drinks brand that is beating Coca-Cola in the Cambodian market. The second leg of our past performance in Asia has pretty much been China. And for that, I will leave the detail to CK. we are currently in 76 cities already in big cities in China, and that program, CK will detail how it drives forward. In many places, we still have the opportunity to gain to get to our fair share in the up-and-coming channels. In many cases, we are stronger in traditional off-trade. We are stronger in traditional on-trade and not as strong in modern off-trade or in e-commerce. That clearly, for instance, is not the case in China. You will also see that from CK. In China, we are approximately 10% market share in e-commerce, which is a market share beating our average share in the country. You will also see how we've driven the growth and the buildup of premium brands in China. And you'll see how in that sense, our China business is also leading in the way we engage consumers in a digital way through digital marketing, through key opinion leaders and through key influencers. And now we are linking both digital consumer marketing with e-commerce. And you'll see that when we talk about capabilities, the capabilities are exactly the same as Søren has presented in the morning. So whether we talk about FIT, whether we talk about ingraining, Funding the Journey, and if Heine has been fundamentally ingraining and Funding the Journey discipline across this market that is delivered every single month through our operators in the markets. Now we've done that in a very, very diverse region. And some of these numbers, if you look at the GDP per capita numbers, I think those are a couple of years old. We go from almost over 40 liters per capita in Vietnam to below 2 liters per capita in India. But more than below 2 liters per capita in India, whilst in China, you have a population of approximately -- almost approximately over 850 million that are of drink engaged, and that engaged with alcohol consumption in India. That number is probably is below 100 million people of over 1 billion population, engaging with drinking alcohol. So very dispersed in that sense. We are very wealthy city states like Singapore, and Hong Kong, where we basically play with a premium portfolio too much to a lot of countries in the pan, not the least, where beer affordability is critical. We go from more than 6,600 stores per million people, if you are in Ho Chi Minh, the number will be much bigger than the average in Vietnam to very, very few stores, very, very, very regulated, very controlled in India. And as I was mentioning, if Hong Kong and Singapore are close to the kind of affordability in the places where probably most of us live that's not the case in many of the emerging markets. And in that sense, we might be less hit by inflation than Europe, but the threshold that we need to balance between how much we will price up and how much we keep beer as an affordable luxury will be key in some of these -- in some of these markets. We are also serving markets that have a very different share of premium and where we hold a very different share of premium. And I will deep dive into a slide that gives you that. And mostly in many of the emerging markets still serving traditional trade. And facing both tailwinds and headwinds. I'll start on the right. Quite a few questions yesterday evening about the crystal ball that I might have about what we expect about the opening of the market in China. I have no crystal ball. I don't make any bold statements. I don't have any favorite channels of communication than anyone in this room. I would like to say that as somebody who moves to Hong Kong next week, I'll have a much easier quarantine than the quarantine was 2 months ago or was 6 months ago. Could that be -- could that give us a sign of things to come? That's just what I read in the news just like all of you. What is not true is when we say China is locked down. The border in China might not be open, but the lockdowns in China have been fluctuating over the months, and they have been regional. So else we wouldn't be operating in China. And CK has much more detail on that, but we see that more as a short-term headwind than a long-term headwind. We've talked about commodity prices, but my point about commodity prices here is less about how massively we are impacted. It's also about how will beer remain unaffordable luxury to some of these populations. And we, especially in India, we face some very uncertain regulatory framework in front of us. On the other hand, we are gaining share in most of our markets. We see, especially in Southeast Asia, strong demographics. But once again, we cannot take Asia as a whole in terms of positive demographics. And what is true is that not only have we been expanding in China, but if you look at Vietnam and I'll deep dive in a few slides on to Vietnam is an opportunity for geographic expansion just like China has been so far. But even if you visit with the team in Lao, you'll see that the team in Lao is still figuring out that there are 4,000 stores where we still don't have the presence that we want. So it doesn't matter if you have 93% market share or if you are still a local player only playing in a specific region. The point there is an opportunity on modern off-trade and on e-commerce. That's not true across the board to give you an idea e-commerce for us in Singapore is already 20% of our off-trade presence in Singapore, 20% of our off-trade presence go through e-commerce right now in Singapore. And we do have still quite a few opportunities in terms of further establishing our premium brands beyond China. Quick, and I won't go as deep as CK will go on China. But a quick dip of our toes into the water in Vietnam. I had the pleasure of being there 2 weeks ago. In Ho Chi Minh in [ Vie ] and in Da Nang, huge vibrancy. If there is one -- I found in most countries, I've seen a lot of revenge consumption in Europe. I've seen less of that in Asia across the 6 markets I visited over the past 3 weeks, probably with an exception being Vietnam, quite vibrant, quite outgoing with also a positive macroeconomic perspective, both on GDP and on population growth. We are very, very small. We only play in central in a relevant way. We play basically with our Huda local power brands. We are not going to invent new brands to play in Vietnam. You know the brands that we see as opportunities in our premium plays. They are to boarding upper mainstream. They are Blanc that well noted was recently launched, they are Somersby. And our expansion will be both to the north and to the south, but you know where the biggest profit pool is. It's been a long journey in Vietnam. What we do see both from the previous plan built in 2020 and the most recent decision to invest, SAIL'27 funds onto Vietnam is that we see quite a potential of organic growth besides any other growth in Vietnam and once again, not reinventing the wheel, but following exactly what we've done in other parts of the world. So the market's outlook for Vietnam is positive. We see premium as a clear opportunity. But we also know that nowadays, we have better premium brand assets than we had when we started the SAIL'22 journey. We are a very small player and we've seen in other markets that you can start from being a very small player and building a position once -- if the market has the scale. And what we can see is that both premium and regional expanded footprint is an opportunity. Nothing new here. And as I said, there is not a different sales execution tool for Vietnam than there is for the rest of the group. Lars spoke of how we do FIT in Central and Eastern Europe. It's exactly the same the same approach. Whether we're talking about FIT as a sales execution tool, whether we're talking about future B2B platform, but at this point, more the image recognition tool that we will have to support the teams on the ground. It's not something that we have not done in other places. If I jump out back from Vietnam and go back for why do we believe there is an opportunity for us in premium. What you have in front of you is how big is premium across the various different markets where we operate in Asia from hardly in existence in Laos all the way to over more than 35%, more than 1/3 in 35% in Hong Kong. And what you have below is our share. And with 10% of market share of the premium segment in China, we are above our fair share. But you know our share in Lao with 22% of the premium segment in Lao. We are way below our fair share. Hardly present in Vietnam on premium. We're just launching as we speak. And as you see, it's quite a mixed picture. But what we see is that as markets evolve, their premium is also getting to be a bigger chunk of the market across the board. And in many cases, we still are playing under our fair share. The way we will execute, just like I said, whether we're talking about FIT, whether we're talking about image recognition is about replicating the same capabilities and the same commercial models that we are operating across the rest of the world. And just to give you an example from Malaysia, probably many of you know that before Stephen and Lars was in Malaysia. So I think there is this point about being embedding tools that we know work for the group, and that's what was done in Malaysia back in 2016. And that journey has never stopped. You can expect that in the future Capital Markets Day, I share the same slide and that FIT performance will be lower. Because on FIT, we constantly -- once we get to above 80%, we review our scorecards, we review our ambition. Ed Mundy, you were earlier saying what are the big challenges in marketing? And we've gotten back to the level of marketing investments above what we had in '19. I think that for me, the biggest challenge I face right now is between having great brand assets, as you saw earlier here that look great in terms of advertising, having a great tool to do sales execution. But then link that vibrancy when consumers are in the market between what is the tool that drives distribution, drives the right price point, right -- drives the right activation great advertising, but that's what you actually see, there is a connection between that ideal brand world and the tough reality of probably something that is not just ideal and for the pictures and for the PowerPoint presentation. I think that is still one of the challenges most brewers face. As I said, and this is a key part, and I'm particularly proud of what CK will share in this space. the tools are the same. The tools are not different. The Carl's Shop, Beerlao LBC online solution we have in Lao is exactly the same tool that has been implemented in the Nordics. What you'll see is very strong e-commerce work from China but bear in mind that, for instance, for Singapore, it's already much more important, the e-commerce channel we're serving there than it is for China. And what you'll see more and more is that there is no longer channel work on e-commerce and marketing work on digital marketing. They are fully integrated. And when you engage with key opinion leaders and with influencers on social media, you are constantly being directed on to the e-commerce channel. So there is a blurring of the lines between one thing and the other. So to finalize, we still see Asia as an attractive footprint for where we both play in developed markets, Malaysia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, but emerging markets, mainly in Southeast Asia. The opportunities are not the same. We cannot say Asia. It's a set of very different countries. What we do see is that growth will also come from markets outside of China. We never want to be again in a situation where we were back in 2014. It's not a situation today, but we'll have an opportunity to grow further other markets. Part of that will come from regional expansion. There's more regional expansion to be acquired in China. There's more regional expansion to be acquired in Vietnam. It will still be based on premiumization of the portfolio and the balance on inflation will be covering inflation while ensuring we hit the right price points. And with 30 seconds overdue, I believe I hand over to CK. That's the cases in it. Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you, Joao. Thank you, everyone. Good afternoon to everyone here. It's nice to e-meeting you online. Happy to provide an update on the China business today. So I hope that you can hear me very well. All right. Let's move on to the next slide. Yes. As we all know, I mean, China is a lot important economy, but at the same time, we're also facing some new challenges that we all know here. So the first 3 bullet points here are pretty much talking about China is still a very promising market, be it in a favorable demographics here. And also, some part of the regional developments have been very vibrant. For example, the Greater Bay, and that's where our head office is right now in Guangzhou. And also, the digitalization has been at the forefront that you have heard about the team more about e-com about digitalizations journey have been through. But at the same time, as the last 2 bullet points here shows, a lot more uncertainty is now emerging as well. But some part of it you know better than I do in terms of the economy. We all know that is slowing down. But that also has something to do with the COVID restrictions that we're experiencing right now. When Joao was talking about it, it has been a while on and off, but hopefully that this will go away in a shorter period of times, hopefully. Yes? So that is pretty much the market that we are working in for China. If we zoom into the next slide and this is pretty much the beer market that we're looking at. Is it a bigger beer market. We're talking about 363 million hectoliters is almost been estimated as 20% of the world volume. However, if you look at the left-hand side on the bar chart there, it has been going down year-on-year about 1%. And even after COVID in 2021, it has not really recovered back to the pre-COVID time which is still on 2021, 3% down versus 2019. But nevertheless, just like in other parts of the world, when the volume dropped down, the premiumization continue. So if you look at the right-hand side of the line chart here, you have a double-digit growth on the premium, which is in the green line year-on-year, while the economy is going down. So it's still a very promising market. Number one, the size is huge number two is premiumizing over time. So this is a market that we're looking at. Now if you flip to the next slide. And if you look at the market, who are the players in the market, it is a very highly consolidated market with 5 players making up 90% of market share that you see on the line chart here or rather this [Indiscernible]. So as you can see, Carlsberg is ranked #5 in the green line there. But however, we really rank #4 in terms of revenue. At the same time, while we are ranking #5, if you look at the green stack bar, we are able to expand our share over times from 5.7 to 7.8 right now. So I think it's a good news that we are still able to stretch our muscle a little, while we are not one of the biggest. Yes. So this is a market that we're looking at for China and for Carlsberg. If you look at the next slide, again, we zoom further in as what Graham said, Western Europe is not a homogeneous market. So does China, the same thing. I mean, China is not one big market per se, but it's broken up by many provinces. And also each players has its own strong hope and profit growth in the provinces that you are seeing, which is already colored coded on the map here. For example, the green color is Carlsberg, we are pretty much skewed into the West and you have competitive one, for example, which is strong in the North and also Southern part of the Southwest. And you have another which is on the Northeast and also on the South outer China. So it is not one big market per se. It is quite fragmented when it comes to the players and the strength of the players by market. So in that sense, a branded approach to look at China as one market may not be realistic. And also, it will be tough if you look at just China as one. So for our efforts, staying focused behind our strategy and also our growth initiative is critical because we look at it differently. We look at it by region. We look at it by provinces, and we look at it by cities. So that's how we attack it. So if we look at the strip to the next slide on where we play. First of all, let me draw your attention to the key milestone at the bottom of the slide there. So we started China a long time ago, 27 years ago, we started already in China. So up to the point in 2013, we actually have the so-called CBC business into our business. And then the most recently, in 2020, Carlsberg injected all the assets into the CBC Lisco, which is Chongqing Brewery and many of you who know the listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange. So with that, we are now approximately 28 million hectoliters, ranking #4 in revenues, a listed company. And also the footprint that you see there, we have 26 breweries in China and our stronghold is pretty much skewed to the West, but the yellow dots that you see there are pretty much big cities that I was trying to alluding to earlier on that we have right now. So we're becoming so-called a more national player, but focus on big cities approach. So if you move on to see what we have been through in China in the next slide, Well, China, just like Cees have shared early on, has been through the 2 journeys as well as what the growth have costed on the journey. And the last is about Funding the Journey. On the right is about accelerating the growth so if we look at the Stage 1 of the journey we have been through, pretty much is about regaining the strong health of the business, optimizing the cost of footprint and productivities. That's where you see the operating margin has been up by about over 700 basis points. So then we switch gear to the growth journey behind the SAIL'22 initiative, which is on the right-hand side. So you see that from that journey from 2021 versus 2018. I mean, the business has been able to grow at all fronts on the volume and also much more higher on revenue at the same times, continue to drive the productivities and also the efficiency going forward with the margin expansion, as you can see here, over 800 basis points. So these are pretty much a journey we have been through. And the success of the accelerations of the growth is pretty much building behind SAIL'22 initiatives. And what are those SAIL'22 2022 initiatives? Maybe I'll share with our next slide. Yes. So these are the SAIL'22 initiatives that we will continue to build on our SAIL'27 with a renewed focus. First of all, it's about geography, channel and portfolios. Geography is about big cities. Perhaps you already have heard it many times. So the big city is about expanding further away from our stronghold going into the new areas, selling the premium portfolio that we have. And for the channel, again, as what Joao said, it's a e-com, it's about the more that we have right now. So with the national in the ways of building our brands and also helps to not only selling but getting our consumers closer to really understand our brands to that channel. At the same time, the third one is about portfolio. I mean we are driving portfolio not just by introducing the international power brand, but also a combinations of the local power brands and international power brands that we are seeing in the back slide. This is the local power brands that we have. If you look at the right-hand side, these are the 6 key local power brands. One is Dali, WuSu that you have heard Jing-A, Chongqing, [Indiscernible] which is a real [Indiscernible] small one. So within this local power brands, they have this is old strong presence in provinces and regions that we are operating. These are so called the activations that we have had running. Just want to share with you also, you see the 3 bottles there. The Core SKU, which is Chongqing and used to be sold at about RMB 6 and then we have upgraded and continue to premiumize with Extra Mark in the middle that you see, that is about RMB 8. And then you have Pure Draft, which is RMB 12. So in a ways that while we premiumize with our portfolio. Within that Chongqing [Indiscernible] we are also doing premiumizations by innovating, by providing a different benefits and different ingredient story, experience to the consumer. So that has helped us to premiumize overall. We also take on the AFB tap into that opportunity in Chongqing is still very small. I think one put that ceiling programs into the AFB in China for future. On the next slide, is about international power brands that we have, of course, we built this brand layer on top of the local power brands that we have that also helps to improve the mix that we talk about super premium, for example, 1664, then you have Carlsberg, then you have Tuborg. And within that, it's not about just laying on the so-called the portfolio of the local power brands but also, we are going premumizations within the branded stuff. I mean, one is to packs to size and also to a different bottle where you see the aluminum bottle, the 170 years special addition and also same thing on 1664 and Tuborg as well where we are trying something the new innovations behind it by building on the footprint and platform that it has today already. So let's double-click a bit more into the SAIL'22 that we talk about just now. If you move on to the next slide. Yes. On the left-hand side, this is this pretty much number of big city that we have had so far. We started with 9 big cities in 2017 now we've got 76 with inclusions of 35 WuSu big cities. So we prioritize those big cities with the bigger -- we tap into the first few with the bigger size of price. Of course, we do aim to get to over 100 cities moving down the road in the SAIL'27 program. So I think this has been somewhat proven in a way that when we grew from 9 to 76 right now. And on the right-hand side, you will see the one that is really driving the growth also that we talked about just now about e-com, about modern off-trades and also the O2O, the online-to-offline. And e-com over the years of 2017 to 2020, I mean, the share has grown by 5x same simply other new so-called online business that we have had. So that has helped in a way to drive the growth for the China business. So if we put this into the overall pictures of our business, which is the next slide. Yes. You'll see across all metrics, the blue one is the SAIL'22 program that we just talked about. And the green is the strong holder base business that we have had. So you see across the volume, revenue, operating profit pretty much their SAIL'22 has been added on into a strong base business that we have had, which is still very healthy and profitable. So this is the source of growth that we are talking about behind the so-called SAIL'22 initiative. Now if we were to double click into the so-called SAIL'22, what are those? I think we talked about it already. But here, we can double in the details on the next slide. Yes. So the green bar is the big city and yellow one is the new retail that we talk about e-com and also the MOF and O2O. So if you look at this trajectories of the growth of the big cities that has contributed to overall growth of China business. So that has grown very well. And also if you look at the right-hand side, we are not losing money, so to speak, we started to fund the journey of the SAIL'22 by optimizing the operations and the productivities. And that [Indiscernible] has paid off quite well in terms of the profit behind the SAIL'22 initiatives overall. So that has helped us driving the growth trajectory that we have had over the years. Now if you look at the portfolio, which is the next slide, we talk about a big city, new retails and portfolio. Now this is a portfolio we're looking at. Let's look at the middle of the table here. You look at the market growth of the premium segment from 2021 to 2020 there's about 12% and Carlsberg was 41%. So I mean the growth that we have in terms of the premium segment has been over-indexed versus the market. If you look at the right-hand side on the bar chart, the yellow one, which is 24%, in terms of the mix of where we have the portfolio, the market mix is about 19%. So Carlsberg is about 24%. So we're all indexed here. At the same time, if you drill into the big cities in terms of the profit we have, that's almost doubled 46% in terms of the mix of the premium brand. So in big cities, we try to go in with our premium portfolio and also selling consumers with the so-called combinations of the international power brands that we have had for example, like Carlsberg, Tuborg, 1664, Wusu and also somewhat on the Ho Chi Minh brands as well. So these are the approach that we are going behind the big cities, behind the new retails and also the portfolio premiumizations overall. Now behind all this, the next slide, please. Behind all this, the talents that we have are the key assets apart from the brands portfolio that we have had to drive the growth that we are seeing over the years. So we do have a strong engaged employee, which you can tell on the right-hand side, which is MyVoice engagement score moving up from 79 to 96 almost so that actually the people behind the scenes, so to speak, to drive the business for us over the years, yes. And if you look at the lens from the outside in, which is the next slide, Yes. How are we fair versus the market? So if you look at a so-called 2021 versus 2016, you will see that the volume growth Carlsberg has been almost 37%. And over that period of time, we gained 2 percentage points in terms of the volume share at the same time, the premiumizations has covered a lot with almost approaching 80% in terms of the revenue growth there. So if you will compare that lens versus the -- the other players in the market, I think the team has been doing quite a good job in the market and delivering quite a stellar result overall over the years. So yes, with that, I would like to just sum it up in the next slide. As you see, the volume is going down, but we believe that premiumization will continue just like in other markets that we are seeing right now. And Carlsberg will continue to expand our share in this market. And SAIL'22 has been a proven so-called recipe for us in China, and we are building on that we renew focus behind SAIL'27 agenda both on the big cities program, new retail center portfolios. And these are the critical growth engines for us going forward. As I said, I mean, we have a very good brand portfolios. And also very strong engaged team behind this is key so that we can focus on our 9-grid. We can focus on our SAIL'27 agenda and drive it forward. So I think I've gained a bit of time and hopefully that is a good session for you to really -- by second look into the China business through these sessions. Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo the last part on the agenda has to do with how it is that we are thinking about driving shareholder value and value creation in Carlsberg. And the value creation journey that we've been on for the last 6 or 7 years will continue. It will continue because we will continue with our rigor when it comes to performance management culture, performance management, drumbeat. It will continue because we will continue with Funding the Journey. We will continue with a strict discipline on cash, strict discipline on trade working capital, strict discipline on CapEx, strict discipline on tax and it will continue because we will continue with our focus on capital allocations ensuring that we get the right balance as to how we deploy cash in and capital in Carlsberg. So by that, we are relatively firm that we will continue to deliver shareholder value. This is also the agenda and the points that I will be going through during this presentation. If we start with the drumbeat of the business. This is really the drum beat of the business. This is how we every day translates strategic ideas, PowerPoints, a lot of discussions into daily actions. This is the performance management drumbeat that we are driving every day. It's something we measure on a monthly basis, follow up on a monthly basis. We do it every quarter. We do it every year. Everyone across the globe, all management teams across the globe participates. We do it at approximately the same time. We use approximately the same slides and the same rigor which is then what drives the discipline and allows us to have a more flexible capital allocation and also resource allocation in general versus what a lot of other companies have. The performance drumbeat always starts with a strategic perspective. As Cees said, the way we translate our strategy in the first place into yearly ambitions is via our 9-grids that are reviewed every year. So the first part of the agenda of our monthly performance reviews has to do with reviewing where only versus our strategic 9-grids. Then we go into the Golden Triangle and the triangle really is about getting the right balance between top line, gross profit, EBIT and cash, and it is about getting the right balance. Sometimes you can focus more on top line, other periods, you focus more on cash, other periods more on profit, but it is through cycle about getting the right balance in the Golden Triangle. That is extremely important to us. Then we go through ESG KPIs we go through supply chain KPIs. We go through our commercial performance, and we go through our financial performance. We go into a lot of details, some like the details, some don't. We like the details. And those details are extremely important for us in order to make sure that we can take the right decisions as to how to reallocate capital as to how to reallocate resources within the group. And that is exactly the key advantage of our drumbeat, it is that it allows us, on an ongoing basis to reallocate resources, to reallocate OpEx, marketing investments, trade working capital, focus liquidity, it allows us not to so that we have to wait 3, 6, 9, 12 months for the next strategy window or for the next budget. Or the next forecast every month, we are able to sort of double-click on where is it we need to cut costs and where is it we need to accelerate investments. That is the key part and the key elements of our performance drumbeat. It is the key strength, and it is what ties in the strategy through the daily actions. That also goes when then from time to time, as said before, we are hit by something unexpected, some storms coming our way, then we are able to react very fast, we are able to reallocate resources, we're able to cut costs in certain areas and reinvest them back into other areas. A few examples. Of those, you can see up here. The COVID situation -- when COVID hit Carlsberg and China in the first place. In January 2020, we immediately established what we call the COVID leadership triangle, we immediately initiated OCM saving targets also outside China, even though we couldn't see any effects outside China yet. The same happened when the war started in Ukraine. We immediately initiated a crisis management team. We immediately focused on ensuring that we had actions to close issues in our supply chain. And the same then again happened when the inflation went through the roof when we saw significant COGS headwind. We immediately initiated the program, WINDFORCE 12, and we immediately initiated cost-saving initiatives via our OCM methodology, and we're targeting savings of around DKK 300 million. So the conclusion on this is that our rigor, our firmness in terms of driving the performance management is really the reason why we've been able to deliver very, very consistent, good results over the last few years. Currently, we are using the same methodology and the same approach for managing the headwinds we see in commodities in 2022, and we'll see the same in 2023. Commodities, energy pricing are going through the roof. It is starting to move in the right direction again, but versus where we were, let's say, 12 months ago, it's a completely different world. We're using our hedging to make sure that we have the time to react. We are typically, for the commodities that we can hedge, we are typically hedging 15 -- 12 to 15 months out. That gives us the time to react. We don't want to be more clever than the market, but we just want time to react. That is why we do the hedging. And then it's clear that what we have seen so far is significant cost headwind 14% in the first half of the year, mid-teens for the full year in terms of COGS headwind per hectoliter. And the reason why it's lower for the full year is simply -- than it is for the half year is simply because second half last year, as you can see from the slide as well, we already started to see significant headwinds coming our way. So in terms of absolute DKK, the number or the mountain we have to climb in the second half is bigger and higher than that in the first half of the year. And we are managing as we've said before, that significant headwind with a structured approach, as said before, we call it WINDFORCE 12. It has to do with ensuring transparency on what's coming our way and also share that transparency with our country operators and country executives. It has to do with making sure that we have mitigating actions across the group in order to close the gap that's coming our way, and it has to do with ensuring execution. And execution when it comes to WINDFORCE 12 is mainly focused on another concept that we've also been through. The PIIC price increase inflation coverage. It's not rocket science, but if you don't do it, it becomes relatively complicated. So this simply measures how big a part of the COGS headwind is being covered by price increases. It's not very complicated. But as said, if you don't do it, the world tends to become extremely complicated because this time around, the headwind is so big and so severe that we have to pass it through. This transparency is yet with all markets, with all regions across the entire group it's done every month, and it's embedded into our monthly performance review. So every month, we follow up, we know exactly which markets are above where we expect them to be on the PIIC, which markets are below, and then we know which friends to call in order to close the remaining part of the gap. This is hugely important to us. So that's basically it on the performance management side. Then moving on to the vehicle that actually ensures that we have the availability and the flexibility to cut costs in some areas while reinvesting or reaccelerating in other areas. And that tool, that methodology is, as you all know, called is Funding the Journey. Funding the Journey has been a huge success basically since we launched it in 2016. It has allowed us to increase investments into a lot of different areas and at the same time, also allowed us to improve our margins. Funding the Journey has 4 key pillars, as you can see up here. Supply chain, Victor has already been through that. That is really mostly about continuous improvements. But it is -- since the numbers are very big in supply chain, those 3%, 4%, 5% a year actually do matter. About commercial productivity, it's about making sure that we keep the focus, keep the discipline also, for instance, on marketing. But again, that whenever we become better within marketing, that we reinvest that back into more marketing spend so that we keep the formula of around 8% when it comes to marketing relative to turnover. Then it's about what we call our structural costs. Our methodology there is, in particular, OCM, we'll come back to that in just a short while. There are no sort of one-off sort of silver bullets. It's really about the rigor, the discipline every month to challenge ourselves and to benchmark. And then there are a few bigger areas that we are looking at where we are targeting significant savings. Cost of finance is a good example. So the cost of running the entire finance in Carlsberg used to be around 1.4% of revenue. Now we are around 1%. And the cost of running the IT organization used to be around 2.5%. Now we're just below 2%. So we have a few targeted areas where we are going for cost savings. But in general, it is more about the drumbeat around OCM. Then the last part is about capital efficiency. It's about cash. It's about trade working capital. It's about CapEx and it's around cash tax. I'll come back to that in just a short while. It's good to have a cost mindset, and we do have a cost mindset in Carlsberg, as you know, but it's worth very little if you're not able to translate it into the daily rhythm of the business. If you're not able to translate it into becoming an integrated part of the way we run the drumbeat in Carlsberg. Our way of operationalizing. Our Funding the Journey approach when it comes to structural costs is called OCM operation cost -- operating cost management, and it allows us transparency on 17 cost groups. We've had that since 2016, 17 cost groups from marketing to supply chain to people into the final details of travel, professional services, events and the like. So it really gives us the rigor. It gives us the discipline. Three things we can get out of this. First, we get cost data. Second, we translate that cost data into transparent data and insights that our management team can use. And thirdly, we then embed that data, those reports that transparency into the performance drumbeat of the company. And the latter part is done by the monthly performance reviews. So this about OCM today is integrated an part of the way we run our business every month. Every month we challenge ourselves from the cost across these 17 cost group. And every month, we find ways of being more efficient. Does it then work? As you can see to the right-hand side, most OCM cost groups relative to turnover have been going down since 2017, with 2 exceptions: one being marketing where we took the deliberate decision not to cut. So if we hit our OCM targets by cutting marketing, it doesn't count. And the other one where we have invested more, as you can see, that is within technology. So Funding the Journey has allowed us to reduce our total SG&A from above 17% excluding marketing to now below 14%. Whilst at the same time, you could see that at bottom here, whilst at the same time, keeping marketing spend very stable. We've done it in such a way where a significant part of those benefits coming from a lower SG&A have been reinvested back into the business. That's into the rollout of 1664 Blanc it's into AFB, both the liquids, but also the positioning and the brands. It's into Asia, big cities as CK just been through. It into the route-to-market investments and accelerations that Joao talked about just before in Vietnam. It's into the ESG state-of-the-art recycling water facility we have in Fredericia in Denmark, and it's also into technology into Carl's Shop, Søren went through that, but also into something as fundamental as strengthening our IT and cyber security. All these investments and many, many, many more investments would not have been possible without Funding the Journey, it is as simple as that. So this really works for us. And at the same time, as you can see as well, we've been able to improve our margins from a level of, let's say, 12%, 13% here, 14.6% in 2017, up to now above 16%. So yes, it does work. And yes, we will continue. We approach our capital efficiency in more or less the same way as we do with costs, we do with rigor, and we do it with discipline. Based on this, we decided to target trade working capital, CapEx and tax because if you take out the P&L part, those are the bigger parts of our total free cash flow where we have actually the opportunity on a daily and monthly basis to improve or do the opposite. So first of all, trade working capital, historically, we have been minus 5%, 6%. At 2016, we were minus 12%. And now we are minus 20%. You can see where the improvement comes from and comes from, in particular, payables. So a structured approach over the last 6, 7 years to improve the payment terms with the bigger global suppliers we have. So this is not about finding a one-off supplier, where all of a sudden, we can increase payment terms. This is about every day, every month, every quarter, when we renew contracts with a big global suppliers, we want 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 days more of payment term. That is what is driving this. Yes. There is a positive country mix impact in this as well. But it is clear that the overall performance is not a coincidence. This has been possible because of high ambitions because of focus and because of follow-up. As you all know -- I will come back to that in just a short while. Cash -- trade working capital is part of our Golden Triangle. We saw that before, and it's also part of our incentive schemes. So that's on trade working capital. And the same applies basically for CapEx. It's all about ambitions. It's all about focus and it's all about follow-up. On CapEx, we set back in 2016 that our ambition is to have a CapEx sort of through cycle of around 7% -- 6% to 7%. We have been around 7%. We will stay around 7%. As far as we can see it, we are not under investing in one single area. There's been a lot of discussion. We are not under investing in one single area when it comes to CapEx. What we do require is for each and every project above EUR 1.5 million, which is not a lot for a company like ours, but each and every project above EUR 1.5 million, we ask people to prepare a small business case, where you have ROIC, IRR, payback time, we have sustainability data in there. And then we review those business cases, and we approve those business cases in ExCom. This is exactly what anyone would do if it was our own business. So it's the rigor that drives the improvement in CapEx, not in any way, shape or form under investment. On tax, we've been able to reduce our effective tax rate from 33% to 22%. And we've done that, and that is extremely important when talking about tax. We've done that at the same time as we've significantly strengthened our compliance. So our compliance within tax is today significantly better than it was 5, 6, 7 years ago. And how is that possible? High ambitions, focus and daily follow-up. We don't, in Carlsberg consider tax as something we do once or twice a year. Tax is an integrated part of our decision-making. We consider tax whenever we take decisions. And that is the way to improve the overall tax performance. All those things together, so profit going up, discipline on trade working capital, on CapEx and on tax has then resulted in a good improvement in ROIC from a historical level of 5% to 6%, now up to well above 10% in ROIC. And the journey on ROIC will continue. We do consider ROIC as one of our key KPIs because it is a KPI where we have very, very close alignment with our shareholders as well. And it's also a good lever then in to talk about the last topic on the agenda, which has to do with capital allocations. These are the capital allocation principles that we implemented back in 2016 the 5 principles, they've served us extremely well. We will continue with those principles also in the new strategy window. Before going into the final details of debt and dividends and share buybacks and M&A, just spending 2 words on point #1, which is investing into our -- growing our business organically, which is actually all we've been talking about during today. It is not a coincidence that invest in our business to drive long-term value creation is priority #1. That is the key for us in Carlsberg. It is where we get by far the best return for our time, and it's where we get by far the best return for our money. And that's why we spent so much time during today to talk about investments into driving and increasing the business organically. So this is absolutely key to us. This is where we get the best returns. Then if we look at the other elements, so from debt to dividend to also share buybacks, we've actually done quite well over the last few years. Our financial health and our balance sheet and also our liquidity has not been stronger for many, many years. In Carlsberg, you should always be careful not to say never because it never goes back to 1847, and we have no data since 1847 but as long as we can see, we have not had a stronger balance sheet than what we have today with a leverage of 1.1%. That is low, yes. There are 2 reasons for that. One has to do with the macro turmoil that the world is going through right now. Anyone who's been running a business our size through sort of macro turmoil, financial turmoil wants to make sure that going through those periods of time, you have sufficient balance sheet and sufficient liquidity. So that's point number one. It is an uncertain world out there. Point number two has to do with in particular, one specific acquisition, buying out one specific partner that we expect to do in the coming period. So these are the 2 reasons why for this period of time our leverage is lower than it normally is. If we then move on and despite a significant reduction -- sorry, I was too fast, despite a significant reduction in the leverage we have, at the same time, being able to improve our payout ratio from 25% to 50%. And whilst doing that, at the same time, due to the increased profit, also improving our dividend per share from less than NOK 10 to now NOK 24 per share. If you combine that with our share buybacks, we initiated for the first time in 2019, then every year, we have been returning cash to our shareholders to the magnitude of DKK 6 billion to DKK 7 billion versus around DKK 1 billion in the past. So quite a good step-up in shareholder returns. And we've done that at the same time as we've done quite some acquisitions. We tend to forget that because we haven't done a lot over the last few years. But since 2017, we basically spent DKK 7 billion, acquiring a few companies which goes for and also increasing our stake in Greece, in Belarus, Portugal, Cambodia, Jing-A that CK showed you before, increasing our stake in Ukraine, establishing milestones in the U.K., buying down Wernesgrüner in Germany, we've bought, and Steve also said that we bought the brand rights to Brooklyn. So we've done a lot, we spent DKK 7 billion on that over the last few years. What we're working on right now is a few minor acquisitions. We expect to be able to come back to that over the coming months. In terms of bigger things, we are, right now, looking into the put and call options, as you know, in our Indian and Nepalese joint venture. And on the divestment side, we are as Lars also said, looking into divesting or we will divest our Russian business. It is a hugely complicated process that we expect to be able to close within first half 2023. So that's what we're working on, on the M&A side. So if you sort of try to sum up, we've delivered significant value to our shareholders over the last years. We don't think that's a coincidence because we've tried to align the interests of our key employees in the group with the interests of our shareholders. We've done that with the 2 schemes that also Joris went through our STI scheme and our LTI scheme. STI is focused on revenue growth, profit, cash and then personnel targets. LTI is focused on revenue growth, EPS growth, ROIC and then relative TSR. So at the end of the day, it is so and it works in such a way that you get what you measure. And we are actually getting quite a lot, and we think it has to do with the fact that we have aligned interest. So summing up, the day here with one of the slides that Cees also had in his part of the presentation. I'm not going to go through each and every slide. But just summing up here, during today, you've heard a lot about SAIL'27. I hope it comes across that we and the executive committee are extremely passionate and proud about the qualitative elements of SAIL'27. But at the end of the day and also what we delivered with SAIL'22. But at the end of the day, of course, the proof is in the pudding and the fair question for you to ask is whether we have delivered. Yes, we have. And there are 2 reasons why we have delivered. One, it is a very, very clear and well-founded strategy, SAIL'22. And point number two, it has to do with rigor and discipline around our performance management drumbeat. So translating strategy into daily actions. And that is exactly why we and the management team feel comfortable about continuing the journey with SAIL'27. We've been through SAIL'27 today across the 5 different pillars, portfolio choices, geographical priorities execution excellence, winning culture and Funding the Journey we've been through the different elements. If you combine that then with our performance drumbeat our rigor, our monthly, quarterly, yearly rigor those 2 things combined makes us very comfortable that we will continue the journey of delivering shareholder value. Our formula for creating shareholder value is organic revenue growth over the next period of time of 3% to 5%. It is on top of 22, remember that, we said from the beginning that this is based on actual 22. So now it's significantly higher, but it's still our ambition, point 1. Point 2, through the window -- the strategy window to have profit growth above revenue growth. Point number three, continue to focus on ROIC as one of the most important KPIs that we have in this company. Point number four, continue the discipline around capital allocation. And point number four, as we've also discussed today, as Simon presented ambitious sustainability target. This is our formula for driving consistent value creation. Thank you.
This call discussed
For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to Carlsberg A/S earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the
EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments,
full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.